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1992 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

40 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 1984.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

13 pts

Breidablik · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

12.05 points above expected

40 points · 27.95 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

9.17 points below expected

13 points · 22.17 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 12 4 2 40 40 19 +21 27.95 +12.05
2 KR Reykjavik 18 11 4 3 37 41 17 +24 32.26 +4.74
3 Thor Akureyri 18 10 5 3 35 30 14 +16 26.41 +8.59
4 Valur Reykjavik 18 9 4 5 31 33 27 +6 29.72 +1.28
5 Fram Reykjavik 18 8 1 9 25 25 27 -2 31.07 -6.07
6 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 6 7 21 25 29 -4 21.71 -0.71
7 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 5 4 9 19 25 33 -8 21.73 -2.73
8 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 1 12 16 23 44 -21 18.73 -2.73
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 3 11 15 14 31 -17 19.63 -4.63
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 3 4 11 13 18 33 -15 22.17 -9.17

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KR Reykjavik 1702 37 32.26 +4.74 83.1% 11 23 29 32 36 41 50
Thor Akureyri 1572 35 26.41 +8.59 95.2% 7 18 23 26 30 35 46
IA Akranes 1526 40 27.95 +12.05 99.0% 7 19 24 28 32 37 46
Valur Reykjavik 1403 31 29.72 +1.28 62.6% 8 21 26 30 33 39 49
FH Hafnarfjordur 1367 21 21.71 -0.71 49.5% 4 13 18 22 25 31 44
Vikingur Reykjavik 1296 19 21.73 -2.73 34.3% 3 13 18 22 25 31 42
Fram Reykjavik 1253 25 31.07 -6.07 15.6% 10 22 27 31 35 40 50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1210 16 18.73 -2.73 34.0% 4 10 15 19 22 27 39
Breidablik 1199 15 19.63 -4.63 22.3% 2 11 16 20 23 28 41
KA Akureyri 1176 13 22.17 -9.17 4.9% 2 14 18 22 26 31 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KA KR TA VR VR
Breidablik —
0-0-2
2.75
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
2.01
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.18
1-0-1
1.56
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
1.50
0-1-1
2.48
FH Hafnarfjordur
2-0-0
2.82
 —
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
3.41
0-2-0
2.81
0-1-1
1.64
0-1-1
2.07
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.50
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.53
 —
0-0-2
3.50
1-0-1
4.34
2-0-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
3.96
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
3.64
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
2.08
 —
2-0-0
4.02
1-0-1
3.44
1-1-0
2.00
1-1-0
2.88
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
3.87
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.58
 —
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.44
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
2.89
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
3.40
0-2-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.92
 —
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.51
0-0-2
1.70
2-0-0
2.43
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.03
1-1-0
3.95
1-0-1
2.99
0-1-1
3.58
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
3.45
 —
2-0-0
2.86
1-1-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.92
Thor Akureyri
1-1-0
3.32
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
1.63
0-1-1
2.70
2-0-0
3.52
1-1-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.72
 —
1-1-0
2.76
2-0-0
3.09
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
4.09
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.89
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.82
 —
0-0-2
3.62
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
1.71
2-0-0
2.68
0-0-2
3.15
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-2
2.48
2-0-0
1.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.5
Allowed 0.74 -9.5
Differential 0.95 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.89%5.56%4.44%1.11%0.56%26.11%
18.89%4.44%6.67%5.56%1.67%2.22%29.44%
25.56%6.67%8.89%1.67%1.67%—24.44%
34.44%5.56%1.67%1.11%——12.78%
41.11%1.67%1.67%———4.44%
5+0.56%2.22%————2.78%
Total26.11%29.44%24.44%12.78%4.44%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.42 2.17
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%44.44%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.72 -0.94
SD 0.81 1.49 1.59
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
1——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.61 -0.22
SD 1.20 1.29 1.86
CV 0.86 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%—————11.11%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.33 1.10 1.91
CV 0.96 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
122.22%5.56%———5.56%33.33%
211.11%—16.67%———27.78%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%22.22%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.06 +1.17
SD 1.63 1.26 2.07
CV 0.73 1.19 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
1——11.11%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.44 -1.17
SD 1.23 1.79 2.20
CV 0.96 0.73 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
111.11%5.56%22.22%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.83 -0.83
SD 0.84 1.15 1.47
CV 0.84 0.63 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
316.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.94 +1.33
SD 2.02 1.06 2.33
CV 0.89 1.12 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
116.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
216.67%—11.11%———27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.78 +0.89
SD 1.24 0.94 1.49
CV 0.74 1.21 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.50 +0.33
SD 1.58 2.20 3.01
CV 0.86 1.47 —
Max 5 9 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.83 -0.44
SD 1.50 0.99 2.04
CV 1.08 0.54 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 40 27.95 +12.05
2 Thor Akureyri 35 26.41 +8.59
3 KR Reykjavik 37 32.26 +4.74
4 Valur Reykjavik 31 29.72 +1.28
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 21 21.71 -0.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 13 22.17 -9.17
2 Fram Reykjavik 25 31.07 -6.07
3 Breidablik 15 19.63 -4.63
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 19 21.73 -2.73
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 16 18.73 -2.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 4 Jun 8 – Jun 23 1 in 84
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Aug 29 – Sep 13 1 in 62
3 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 30 – Aug 29 1 in 28
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 16 – Jun 28 1 in 15
5 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 19 – Jul 2 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 15 – Aug 17 1 in 198
2 KA Akureyri 5 Jun 19 – Jul 10 1 in 181
3 Breidablik 6 May 24 – Jun 25 1 in 113
4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 16 – Aug 25 1 in 22
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 16 – Sep 5 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 10 May 23 – Jul 16 1 in 403
2 Thor Akureyri 7 May 23 – Jun 28 1 in 65
3 Valur Reykjavik 7 Jun 19 – Jul 25 1 in 45
4 KR Reykjavik 7 Jun 9 – Jul 13 1 in 11
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jun 27 – Jul 12 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 8 May 28 – Jul 10 1 in 117
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 14 – Jul 17 1 in 19
3 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 15 – Aug 17 1 in 17
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 27 – Jun 19 1 in 12
5 Breidablik 6 May 24 – Jun 25 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes11.39%14.99%16.85%16.15%13.90%10.75%7.15%4.86%2.66%1.30%
KR Reykjavik35.66%23.01%15.37%10.23%6.88%4.34%2.35%1.28%0.67%0.21%
Thor Akureyri6.97%10.59%13.81%14.87%15.39%13.30%10.60%7.64%4.43%2.40%
Valur Reykjavik17.70%19.14%17.50%15.81%11.27%8.07%4.99%3.02%1.86%0.64%
Fram Reykjavik23.92%21.33%17.74%13.59%9.15%6.36%4.06%2.31%1.12%0.42%
FH Hafnarfjordur1.36%2.77%4.40%7.50%10.31%13.32%15.47%16.30%15.88%12.69%
Vikingur Reykjavik1.27%3.08%4.88%7.17%10.02%13.17%15.73%15.93%15.27%13.48%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar0.20%0.81%1.74%2.82%5.47%7.46%11.75%16.05%22.04%31.66%
Breidablik0.43%1.17%2.51%3.71%7.03%9.80%12.93%16.83%20.60%24.99%
KA Akureyri1.10%3.11%5.20%8.15%10.58%13.43%14.97%15.78%15.47%12.21%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
Slight Edge
44.44%20.00%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
198 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
11%
IA Akranes, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.28 * Some Luck: 4.28 to 6.42 * Lucky: 6.42 to 8.56 * Wild Swing: 8.56 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.44 * Close: 1.44 to 2.16 * Off: 2.16 to 2.88 * Way Off: 2.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.01 * A Surprise: 1.01 to 1.61 * Several Surprises: 1.61 to 2.22 * Many Surprises: 2.22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.33 points
Some Luck
05.3513
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.804
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.05%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.90%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.56
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.40
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.07
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.58
Overconfident
0.4585931.001.54141
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.131
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KR Reykjavik 99.12% 0.88%
Fram Reykjavik 98.46% 1.54%
Valur Reykjavik 97.50% 2.50%
IA Akranes 96.04% 3.96%
Thor Akureyri 93.17% 6.83%
KA Akureyri 72.32% 27.68%
FH Hafnarfjordur 71.43% 28.57%
Vikingur Reykjavik 71.25% 28.75%
Breidablik 54.41% 45.59%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 46.30% 53.70%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1992-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1380 1407 40.0% 21.2% 38.8% -22.2 0
1992-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1407 1380 38.8% 21.2% 40.0% +22.3 3
1992-05-23 IA Akranes D 2-2 1432 1250 64.1% 20.3% 15.6% -4.9 1
1992-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1250 1432 15.6% 20.3% 64.1% +4.9 1
1992-05-23 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1269 1450 21.0% 20.8% 58.2% +32.8 3
1992-05-23 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1450 1269 58.2% 20.8% 21.0% -32.8 0
1992-05-24 Breidablik W 2-1 1368 1369 43.6% 21.2% 35.2% +20.1 3
1992-05-24 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1369 1368 35.2% 21.2% 43.6% -20.1 0
1992-05-24 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1405 1375 47.8% 21.1% 31.1% -51.6 0
1992-05-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1375 1405 31.1% 21.1% 47.8% +51.6 3
1992-05-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1358 1354 44.3% 21.2% 34.5% -24.2 0
1992-05-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1354 1358 34.5% 21.2% 44.3% +24.2 3
1992-05-27 IA Akranes D 1-1 1429 1255 63.4% 20.4% 16.2% -6.4 4
1992-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1255 1429 16.2% 20.4% 63.4% +6.4 2
1992-05-28 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1349 1301 50.1% 21.1% 28.8% -28.5 0
1992-05-28 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1301 1349 28.8% 21.1% 50.1% +28.5 6
1992-05-28 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1417 1427 42.3% 21.2% 36.5% +35.8 3
1992-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1427 1417 36.5% 21.2% 42.3% -35.8 1
1992-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 3-3 1427 1388 48.9% 21.1% 30.0% -1.5 4
1992-05-28 @ KA Akureyri D 3-3 1388 1427 30.0% 21.1% 48.9% +1.5 4
1992-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1390 1333 51.1% 21.1% 27.8% -27.4 4
1992-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1333 1390 27.8% 21.1% 51.1% +27.4 3
1992-06-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1261 1453 20.0% 20.7% 59.3% +62.9 5
1992-06-08 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1453 1261 59.3% 20.7% 20.0% -62.9 3
1992-06-08 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1330 1425 30.6% 21.1% 48.3% +1.6 7
1992-06-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1425 1330 48.3% 21.1% 30.6% -1.7 5
1992-06-08 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1378 1422 37.5% 21.2% 41.3% +22.8 6
1992-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1422 1378 41.3% 21.2% 37.5% -22.8 4
1992-06-09 Breidablik W 1-0 1391 1321 52.9% 21.0% 26.1% +16.7 4
1992-06-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1321 1391 26.1% 21.0% 52.9% -16.7 0
1992-06-13 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1424 1408 45.9% 21.2% 32.9% -1.6 6
1992-06-13 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1408 1424 32.9% 21.2% 45.9% +1.6 5
1992-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1401 1362 48.9% 21.1% 30.0% -26.3 6
1992-06-14 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1362 1401 30.0% 21.1% 48.9% +26.3 7
1992-06-15 IA Akranes L 0-1 1304 1324 40.9% 21.2% 37.9% -24.0 0
1992-06-15 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1324 1304 37.9% 21.2% 40.9% +24.0 8
1992-06-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1361 1332 47.7% 21.1% 31.2% -27.3 3
1992-06-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1332 1361 31.2% 21.1% 47.7% +27.3 10
1992-06-16 Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1400 1390 45.1% 21.2% 33.7% -60.2 4
1992-06-16 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 1390 1400 33.7% 21.2% 45.1% +60.2 6
1992-06-19 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1389 1339 50.2% 21.1% 28.7% -3.1 8
1992-06-19 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1339 1389 28.7% 21.1% 50.2% +3.0 5
1992-06-19 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1348 1422 33.4% 21.2% 45.4% +26.2 11
1992-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1422 1348 45.4% 21.2% 33.4% -26.2 6
1992-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1410 1333 53.5% 21.0% 25.5% +44.8 8
1992-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1333 1410 25.5% 21.0% 53.5% -44.8 3
1992-06-20 Breidablik W 3-0 1450 1280 63.1% 20.4% 16.5% +30.6 9
1992-06-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1280 1450 16.5% 20.4% 63.1% -30.6 0
1992-06-20 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1359 1374 41.6% 21.2% 37.2% +61.0 13
1992-06-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1374 1359 37.2% 21.2% 41.6% -61.0 6
1992-06-23 IA Akranes L 0-1 1289 1375 31.8% 21.1% 47.0% -19.7 3
1992-06-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1375 1289 47.0% 21.1% 31.8% +19.7 14
1992-06-24 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1313 1454 25.2% 21.0% 53.8% -30.5 6
1992-06-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1454 1313 53.8% 21.0% 25.2% +30.5 11
1992-06-25 Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1386 1420 38.9% 21.2% 39.9% +0.1 9
1992-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1420 1386 39.9% 21.2% 38.9% -0.1 14
1992-06-25 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1396 1480 32.0% 21.1% 46.8% -18.6 6
1992-06-25 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1480 1396 46.8% 21.1% 32.0% +18.6 12
1992-06-25 Breidablik W 2-0 1342 1249 55.5% 20.9% 23.6% +28.9 8
1992-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1249 1342 23.6% 20.9% 55.5% -28.9 0
1992-06-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1394 1283 57.4% 20.8% 21.8% -3.5 15
1992-06-27 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1283 1394 21.8% 20.8% 57.4% +3.5 7
1992-06-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-1 1499 1269 67.8% 19.9% 12.3% +13.9 15
1992-06-28 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1269 1499 12.3% 19.9% 67.8% -13.9 3
1992-06-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1420 1371 50.1% 21.1% 28.8% -2.7 15
1992-06-28 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1371 1420 28.8% 21.1% 50.1% +2.7 9
1992-06-29 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1220 1377 23.4% 20.9% 55.7% +29.6 3
1992-06-29 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1377 1220 55.7% 20.9% 23.4% -29.6 6
1992-06-29 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1485 1386 56.1% 20.9% 23.0% +34.6 14
1992-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1386 1485 23.0% 20.9% 56.1% -34.6 9
1992-07-01 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1286 1513 16.9% 20.5% 62.6% +4.6 8
1992-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1513 1286 62.6% 20.5% 16.9% -4.6 16
1992-07-02 IA Akranes L 0-4 1351 1391 38.2% 21.2% 40.6% -81.4 9
1992-07-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1391 1351 40.6% 21.2% 38.2% +81.3 18
1992-07-02 Breidablik D 0-0 1255 1250 44.5% 21.2% 34.4% -1.4 4
1992-07-02 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1250 1255 34.4% 21.2% 44.5% +1.4 4
1992-07-02 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1417 1520 29.7% 21.1% 49.1% -18.6 15
1992-07-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1520 1417 49.1% 21.1% 29.7% +18.6 17
1992-07-02 KA Akureyri W 4-0 1374 1348 47.3% 21.1% 31.5% +69.8 12
1992-07-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1348 1374 31.5% 21.1% 47.3% -69.8 6
1992-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1278 1254 47.0% 21.1% 31.8% -44.1 6
1992-07-10 @ KA Akureyri W 3-1 1254 1278 31.8% 21.1% 47.0% +44.1 7
1992-07-11 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1472 1398 53.2% 21.0% 25.8% +16.5 21
1992-07-11 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1398 1472 25.8% 21.0% 53.2% -16.5 15
1992-07-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1251 1291 38.2% 21.2% 40.6% +0.3 5
1992-07-12 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1291 1251 40.6% 21.2% 38.2% -0.3 9
1992-07-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1508 1270 68.4% 19.9% 11.8% +8.2 19
1992-07-12 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1270 1508 11.8% 19.9% 68.4% -8.2 9
1992-07-13 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1538 1444 55.6% 20.9% 23.5% -4.6 18
1992-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1444 1538 23.5% 20.9% 55.6% +4.6 13
1992-07-15 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1516 1382 59.8% 20.7% 19.5% -63.5 19
1992-07-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1382 1516 19.5% 20.7% 59.8% +63.5 18
1992-07-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1252 1262 42.4% 21.2% 36.4% -40.4 5
1992-07-16 @ Breidablik W 3-1 1262 1252 36.4% 21.2% 42.4% +40.4 12
1992-07-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1489 1533 37.4% 21.2% 41.4% +39.6 24
1992-07-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1533 1489 41.4% 21.2% 37.4% -39.6 18
1992-07-16 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-2 1449 1298 61.3% 20.6% 18.1% +10.9 16
1992-07-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1298 1449 18.1% 20.6% 61.3% -10.8 7
1992-07-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1234 1291 35.8% 21.2% 43.0% +25.0 9
1992-07-17 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1291 1234 43.0% 21.2% 35.8% -25.0 9
1992-07-24 Breidablik D 1-1 1445 1211 68.1% 19.9% 12.0% -7.7 19
1992-07-24 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1211 1445 12.0% 19.9% 68.1% +7.7 6
1992-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 1-5 1528 1459 52.6% 21.0% 26.3% -89.0 24
1992-07-25 @ IA Akranes W 5-1 1459 1528 26.3% 21.0% 52.6% +89.0 19
1992-07-26 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1302 1259 49.5% 21.1% 29.4% -1.9 13
1992-07-26 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1259 1302 29.4% 21.1% 49.5% +1.9 10
1992-07-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 6-1 1266 1287 40.8% 21.2% 38.0% +82.8 12
1992-07-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-6 1287 1266 38.0% 21.2% 40.8% -82.8 7
1992-07-27 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1494 1453 49.2% 21.1% 29.7% +16.6 21
1992-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1453 1494 29.7% 21.1% 49.2% -16.6 19
1992-07-29 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1204 1300 30.6% 21.1% 48.3% -52.0 7
1992-07-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1300 1204 48.3% 21.1% 30.6% +52.0 16
1992-07-29 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1548 1348 65.5% 20.2% 14.2% -34.8 19
1992-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1348 1548 14.2% 20.2% 65.5% +34.8 15
1992-07-30 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1219 1510 12.3% 19.9% 67.8% +38.1 9
1992-07-30 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1510 1219 67.8% 19.9% 12.3% -38.1 21
1992-07-30 IA Akranes L 0-2 1436 1439 43.4% 21.2% 35.4% -47.5 19
1992-07-30 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1439 1436 35.4% 21.2% 43.4% +47.5 27
1992-07-30 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1261 1438 21.4% 20.8% 57.8% -26.5 10
1992-07-30 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1438 1261 57.8% 20.8% 21.4% +26.5 22
1992-08-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1352 1383 39.4% 21.2% 39.4% +0.0 17
1992-08-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1383 1352 39.4% 21.2% 39.4% +0.0 16
1992-08-12 Breidablik W 4-2 1487 1257 67.8% 19.9% 12.3% +12.4 30
1992-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 1257 1487 12.3% 19.9% 67.8% -12.4 9
1992-08-12 KA Akureyri W 3-0 1472 1234 68.3% 19.9% 11.8% +22.4 24
1992-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1234 1472 11.8% 19.9% 68.3% -22.4 10
1992-08-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 4-2 1464 1152 72.8% 19.1% 8.1% +8.3 25
1992-08-12 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-4 1152 1464 8.1% 19.1% 72.8% -8.3 7
1992-08-13 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1389 1514 27.0% 21.0% 51.9% -32.4 19
1992-08-13 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1514 1389 51.9% 21.0% 27.0% +32.4 22
1992-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1144 1495 9.1% 19.3% 71.5% -12.0 7
1992-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1495 1144 71.5% 19.3% 9.1% +12.0 27
1992-08-16 IA Akranes W 1-0 1212 1499 12.6% 20.0% 67.5% +38.0 13
1992-08-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1499 1212 67.5% 20.0% 12.6% -38.0 30
1992-08-16 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1546 1352 65.1% 20.3% 14.7% +10.0 25
1992-08-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1352 1546 14.7% 20.3% 65.1% -10.0 17
1992-08-16 Thor Akureyri L 1-4 1383 1473 31.4% 21.1% 47.5% -44.9 16
1992-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-1 1473 1383 47.5% 21.1% 31.4% +44.9 28
1992-08-17 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1245 1357 28.6% 21.1% 50.3% +28.6 12
1992-08-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1357 1245 50.3% 21.1% 28.6% -28.6 19
1992-08-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 7-1 1461 1132 73.7% 18.9% 7.4% +22.5 33
1992-08-25 @ IA Akranes L 1-7 1132 1461 7.4% 18.9% 73.7% -22.5 7
1992-08-25 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1507 1338 62.9% 20.4% 16.6% +30.8 30
1992-08-25 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1338 1507 16.6% 20.4% 62.9% -30.8 16
1992-08-25 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1517 1342 63.5% 20.4% 16.1% +20.6 31
1992-08-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1342 1517 16.1% 20.4% 63.5% -20.6 17
1992-08-26 Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1273 1556 12.9% 20.0% 67.1% -39.1 12
1992-08-26 @ Breidablik W 5-0 1556 1273 67.1% 20.0% 12.9% +39.1 28
1992-08-26 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1328 1250 53.7% 21.0% 25.3% +16.2 22
1992-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1250 1328 25.3% 21.0% 53.7% -16.2 13
1992-08-29 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1322 1538 17.8% 20.6% 61.6% +4.4 18
1992-08-29 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1538 1322 61.6% 20.6% 17.8% -4.4 31
1992-08-29 Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1109 1344 16.3% 20.4% 63.3% +52.0 10
1992-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-4 1344 1109 63.3% 20.4% 16.3% -52.0 22
1992-08-29 Breidablik L 1-2 1234 1234 43.7% 21.2% 35.1% -23.9 13
1992-08-29 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 1234 1234 35.1% 21.2% 43.7% +23.9 15
1992-08-29 Thor Akureyri L 0-3 1595 1538 51.2% 21.1% 27.7% -79.7 28
1992-08-29 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1538 1595 27.7% 21.1% 51.2% +79.7 34
1992-08-29 IA Akranes L 1-3 1308 1484 21.5% 20.8% 57.7% -23.0 16
1992-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1484 1308 57.7% 20.8% 21.5% +23.0 36
1992-09-05 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1258 1161 55.9% 20.9% 23.2% -28.2 15
1992-09-05 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1161 1258 23.2% 20.9% 55.9% +28.2 13
1992-09-05 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1292 1285 44.8% 21.2% 34.0% +19.6 25
1992-09-05 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1285 1292 34.0% 21.2% 44.8% -19.6 16
1992-09-05 FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1507 1326 64.0% 20.4% 15.6% +17.4 39
1992-09-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1326 1507 15.6% 20.4% 64.0% -17.4 18
1992-09-05 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1210 1515 11.5% 19.8% 68.7% -13.0 13
1992-09-05 @ KA Akureyri W 3-1 1515 1210 68.7% 19.8% 11.5% +13.0 31
1992-09-05 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1533 1618 32.0% 21.1% 46.8% +43.9 34
1992-09-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1618 1533 46.8% 21.1% 32.0% -43.9 34
1992-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1309 1312 43.4% 21.2% 35.5% +58.7 21
1992-09-12 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1312 1309 35.5% 21.2% 43.4% -58.7 25
1992-09-12 IA Akranes D 2-2 1574 1524 50.3% 21.1% 28.6% -2.0 35
1992-09-12 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1524 1574 28.6% 21.1% 50.3% +2.0 40
1992-09-12 KR Reykjavik L 1-9 1528 1577 36.9% 21.2% 41.9% -125.2 31
1992-09-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 9-1 1577 1528 41.9% 21.2% 36.9% +125.2 37
1992-09-13 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1190 1197 42.8% 21.2% 36.0% +20.5 16
1992-09-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1197 1190 36.0% 21.2% 42.8% -20.5 13
1992-09-13 Breidablik W 3-1 1265 1230 48.4% 21.1% 30.4% +30.9 19
1992-09-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1230 1265 30.4% 21.1% 48.4% -30.9 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1992-07-30 12.31% @ Breidablik 1219 1 KR Reykjavik 1510 0
2 1992-08-16 12.56% @ KA Akureyri 1212 1 IA Akranes 1499 0
3 1992-07-29 14.24% Vikingur Reykjavik 1348 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1548 1
4 1992-08-29 16.26% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1109 4 Fram Reykjavik 1344 2
5 1992-07-15 19.53% Thor Akureyri 1382 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1516 0
6 1992-06-08 20.02% @ IA Akranes 1261 2 Fram Reykjavik 1453 0
7 1992-05-23 20.99% @ Thor Akureyri 1269 1 Fram Reykjavik 1450 0
8 1992-09-05 23.24% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1161 3 @ Breidablik 1258 2
9 1992-06-29 23.44% @ Breidablik 1220 2 KA Akureyri 1377 1
10 1992-07-25 26.33% Valur Reykjavik 1459 5 @ IA Akranes 1528 1
11 1992-08-29 27.70% Thor Akureyri 1538 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1595 0
12 1992-06-08 27.80% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1333 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1390 1
13 1992-08-17 28.60% @ Breidablik 1245 1 Fram Reykjavik 1357 0
14 1992-05-28 28.84% Thor Akureyri 1301 1 @ Breidablik 1349 0
15 1992-06-14 29.99% FH Hafnarfjordur 1362 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1401 1
16 1992-05-24 31.06% KA Akureyri 1375 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1405 0
17 1992-06-15 31.17% Thor Akureyri 1332 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1361 0
18 1992-07-10 31.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1254 3 @ KA Akureyri 1278 1
19 1992-09-05 32.02% @ KR Reykjavik 1533 3 Thor Akureyri 1618 1
20 1992-06-19 33.44% @ IA Akranes 1348 1 KA Akureyri 1422 0
21 1992-06-16 33.70% Fram Reykjavik 1390 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 1400 1
22 1992-05-27 34.53% Vikingur Reykjavik 1354 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1358 1
23 1992-08-29 35.14% Breidablik 1234 2 @ KA Akureyri 1234 1
24 1992-07-30 35.43% IA Akranes 1439 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1436 0
25 1992-07-17 35.75% @ KA Akureyri 1234 1 Vikingur Reykjavik 1291 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-09-12 125.20 KR Reykjavik 9 1577 41.91% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1528 36.88% 21.20%
2 1992-07-25 88.96 Valur Reykjavik 5 1459 26.33% @ IA Akranes 1 1528 52.65% 21.02%
3 1992-07-26 82.80 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 1266 40.77% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1 1287 38.02% 21.21%
4 1992-07-02 81.35 IA Akranes 4 1391 40.63% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1351 38.16% 21.21%
5 1992-08-29 79.72 Thor Akureyri 3 1538 27.70% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1595 51.24% 21.06%
6 1992-07-02 69.80 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1374 47.32% KA Akureyri 0 1348 31.54% 21.15%
7 1992-07-15 63.46 Thor Akureyri 2 1382 19.53% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1516 59.79% 20.69%
8 1992-06-08 62.92 @ IA Akranes 2 1261 20.02% Fram Reykjavik 0 1453 59.26% 20.72%
9 1992-06-20 61.04 @ Thor Akureyri 3 1359 41.59% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1374 37.21% 21.20%
10 1992-06-16 60.16 Fram Reykjavik 4 1390 33.70% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 1400 45.12% 21.18%
11 1992-09-12 58.74 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1309 43.35% Fram Reykjavik 0 1312 35.46% 21.19%
12 1992-07-29 52.05 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1300 48.32% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1204 30.55% 21.13%
13 1992-08-29 52.03 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1109 16.26% Fram Reykjavik 2 1344 63.32% 20.42%
14 1992-05-24 51.62 KA Akureyri 2 1375 31.06% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1405 47.81% 21.14%
15 1992-07-30 47.52 IA Akranes 2 1439 35.43% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1436 43.37% 21.19%
16 1992-08-16 44.89 Thor Akureyri 4 1473 47.46% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1383 31.40% 21.14%
17 1992-06-19 44.76 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1410 53.52% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1333 25.49% 20.99%
18 1992-07-10 44.07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1254 31.82% @ KA Akureyri 1 1278 47.03% 21.15%
19 1992-09-05 43.91 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1533 32.02% Thor Akureyri 1 1618 46.83% 21.15%
20 1992-07-16 40.39 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1262 36.40% @ Breidablik 1 1252 42.40% 21.20%
21 1992-07-16 39.60 @ IA Akranes 3 1489 37.42% KR Reykjavik 1 1533 41.37% 21.21%
22 1992-08-26 39.13 Valur Reykjavik 5 1556 67.12% @ Breidablik 0 1273 12.86% 20.03%
23 1992-07-30 38.12 @ Breidablik 1 1219 12.31% KR Reykjavik 0 1510 67.75% 19.94%
24 1992-08-16 37.96 @ KA Akureyri 1 1212 12.56% IA Akranes 0 1499 67.46% 19.98%
25 1992-05-28 35.84 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1417 42.31% KR Reykjavik 1 1427 36.49% 21.20%