1990 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Fram Reykjavik

38 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1988.0

Relegated

IA Akranes

11 pts

Thor Akureyri · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

12.92 points above expected

37 points · 24.08 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

9.59 points below expected

11 points · 20.59 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Fram Reykjavik Champion	18	12	2	4	38	39	16	+23	34.68	+3.32
2	KR Reykjavik	18	12	2	4	38	31	17	+14	29.64	+8.36
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	18	11	4	3	37	39	32	+7	24.08	+12.92
4	Valur Reykjavik	18	10	3	5	33	29	21	+8	32.44	+0.56
5	Stjarnan	18	8	2	8	26	25	27	-2	22.87	+3.13
6	FH Hafnarfjordur	18	7	2	9	23	24	29	-5	24.09	-1.09
7	Vikingur Reykjavik	18	4	7	7	19	17	24	-7	23.62	-4.62
8	KA Akureyri	18	5	1	12	16	18	28	-10	25.29	-9.29
9	Thor Akureyri Relegated	18	4	3	11	15	13	24	-11	18.00	-3.00
10	IA Akranes Relegated	18	3	2	13	11	19	36	-17	20.59	-9.59

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Fram Reykjavik	1365	38	34.68	+3.32	74.9%	14	25	31	35	39	44	52
KR Reykjavik	1290	38	29.64	+8.36	94.1%	8	20	26	30	34	39	49
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1235	37	24.08	+12.92	98.9%	5	15	20	24	28	34	47
Valur Reykjavik	1228	33	32.44	+0.56	57.4%	10	23	29	32	36	41	51
Stjarnan	1161	26	22.87	+3.13	74.0%	4	14	19	23	27	32	43
FH Hafnarfjordur	1087	23	24.09	-1.09	46.4%	5	15	20	24	28	34	46
KA Akureyri	1082	16	25.29	-9.29	6.2%	6	16	21	25	29	35	46
Thor Akureyri	1040	15	18.00	-3.00	32.9%	1	9	14	18	22	27	38
Vikingur Reykjavik	1034	19	23.62	-4.62	24.2%	4	14	20	24	27	33	47
IA Akranes	996	11	20.59	-9.59	4.9%	1	12	17	20	24	30	42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FH	FR	IA	IV	KA	KR	STJ	TA	VR	VR
FH Hafnarfjordur	—	1-1-0 1.44	2-0-0 3.27	0-0-2 2.97	1-0-1 2.76	0-0-2 2.34	2-0-0 2.76	1-0-1 3.70	0-0-2 1.91	0-1-1 2.96
Fram Reykjavik	0-1-1 4.24	—	2-0-0 3.83	1-0-1 3.76	2-0-0 3.67	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.98	1-1-0 4.41	2-0-0 3.14	1-0-1 4.20
IA Akranes	0-0-2 2.40	0-0-2 1.85	—	0-0-2 2.38	1-0-1 2.19	0-0-2 1.79	0-1-1 2.52	2-0-0 3.06	0-0-2 2.00	0-1-1 2.42
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2-0-0 2.70	1-0-1 1.91	2-0-0 3.29	—	1-1-0 2.72	1-1-0 2.07	1-1-0 3.12	2-0-0 3.20	0-0-2 2.10	1-1-0 2.95
KA Akureyri	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.00	1-0-1 3.48	0-1-1 2.95	—	0-0-2 1.94	1-0-1 3.12	0-0-2 3.84	0-0-2 2.35	2-0-0 2.75
KR Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.33	0-0-2 2.19	2-0-0 3.89	0-1-1 3.60	2-0-0 3.73	—	2-0-0 3.23	2-0-0 4.03	1-0-1 2.36	1-1-0 3.35
Stjarnan	0-0-2 2.91	1-0-1 1.70	1-1-0 3.15	0-1-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 2.44	—	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 1.62	1-0-1 2.89
Thor Akureyri	1-0-1 1.98	0-1-1 1.28	0-0-2 2.61	0-0-2 2.47	2-0-0 1.83	0-0-2 1.65	0-0-2 2.65	—	0-1-1 1.30	1-1-0 2.18
Valur Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.77	0-0-2 2.54	2-0-0 3.68	2-0-0 3.57	2-0-0 3.32	1-0-1 3.31	0-0-2 4.05	1-1-0 4.39	—	0-2-0 3.82
Vikingur Reykjavik	1-1-0 2.71	1-0-1 1.48	1-1-0 3.25	0-1-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.92	0-1-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.78	0-1-1 3.49	0-2-0 1.86	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+10.5
Allowed	0.34	-9.5
Differential	0.91	+7.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	11.11%	6.67%	2.22%	2.78%	—	27.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	8.89%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	31.11%
2	6.67%	8.89%	5.56%	2.22%	1.11%	—	24.44%
3	2.22%	3.33%	2.22%	—	1.67%	—	9.44%
4	2.78%	1.11%	1.11%	1.67%	—	—	6.67%
5+	—	1.11%	—	—	—	—	1.11%
Total	27.22%	31.11%	24.44%	9.44%	6.67%	1.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.41	+0.00
SD	1.25	1.25	1.82
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.61	-0.28
SD	1.28	1.04	1.78
CV	0.96	0.64	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	22.22%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	55.56%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	0.89	+1.28
SD	1.62	1.23	2.02
CV	0.75	1.39	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	2.00	-0.94
SD	1.06	1.14	1.39
CV	1.00	0.57	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	1.78	+0.39
SD	1.29	1.44	1.85
CV	0.60	0.81	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	38.89%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.56	-0.56
SD	1.19	1.20	1.95
CV	1.19	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	0.94	+0.78
SD	1.07	0.87	1.52
CV	0.62	0.92	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	38.89%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	33.33%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.50	-0.11
SD	1.09	1.89	2.25
CV	0.79	1.26	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	55.56%
1	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.72	1.33	-0.61
SD	1.07	0.97	1.46
CV	1.49	0.73	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	27.78%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.17	+0.44
SD	1.20	1.04	1.46
CV	0.74	0.89	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.33	-0.39
SD	0.80	1.24	1.54
CV	0.85	0.93	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	37	24.08	+12.92
2	KR Reykjavik	38	29.64	+8.36
3	Fram Reykjavik	38	34.68	+3.32
4	Stjarnan	26	22.87	+3.13
5	Valur Reykjavik	33	32.44	+0.56

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	IA Akranes	11	20.59	-9.59
2	KA Akureyri	16	25.29	-9.29
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	19	23.62	-4.62
4	Thor Akureyri	15	18.00	-3.00
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	23	24.09	-1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Stjarnan	4	Aug 12 – Sep 1	1 in 46
2	Fram Reykjavik	5	Jul 22 – Aug 20	1 in 16
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	4	Aug 20 – Sep 15	1 in 16
4	Thor Akureyri	2	Sep 8 – Sep 15	1 in 14
5	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	Jun 18 – Jun 29	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	3	Jun 18 – Jul 3	1 in 170
2	IA Akranes	8	Jul 2 – Aug 20	1 in 118
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	5	Aug 15 – Sep 15	1 in 50
4	KA Akureyri	4	May 20 – Jun 7	1 in 27
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	Jun 5 – Jun 19	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	8	Jun 18 – Aug 10	1 in 128
2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	8	Jun 19 – Aug 11	1 in 119
3	Stjarnan	4	Aug 12 – Sep 1	1 in 10
4	Fram Reykjavik	8	Jul 22 – Sep 15	1 in 10
5	KR Reykjavik	6	Jul 2 – Aug 9	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	3	Jun 18 – Jul 3	1 in 25
2	IA Akranes	8	Jul 2 – Aug 20	1 in 15
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	5	Jul 2 – Jul 27	1 in 14
4	Thor Akureyri	8	Jul 11 – Sep 1	1 in 12
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	3	Jun 5 – Jun 19	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Fram Reykjavik	47.45%	23.85%	12.65%	7.16%	4.21%	2.20%	1.37%	0.69%	0.32%	0.10%
KR Reykjavik	14.06%	19.69%	19.94%	14.77%	11.05%	8.07%	5.40%	3.74%	2.27%	1.01%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2.80%	5.90%	9.13%	12.23%	13.47%	13.94%	13.29%	12.29%	10.09%	6.86%
Valur Reykjavik	25.58%	27.52%	18.49%	11.24%	7.16%	4.68%	2.83%	1.53%	0.70%	0.27%
Stjarnan	1.57%	3.76%	7.00%	10.41%	11.43%	13.06%	14.49%	14.59%	13.55%	10.14%
FH Hafnarfjordur	2.39%	5.50%	9.28%	11.71%	13.00%	13.79%	13.83%	12.09%	11.22%	7.19%
Vikingur Reykjavik	1.91%	4.54%	7.98%	10.67%	12.99%	14.00%	13.65%	13.35%	11.85%	9.06%
KA Akureyri	3.39%	7.22%	10.82%	13.76%	13.82%	13.72%	12.27%	10.89%	8.48%	5.63%
Thor Akureyri	0.22%	0.59%	1.26%	2.87%	4.74%	6.56%	10.21%	14.06%	21.94%	37.55%
IA Akranes	0.63%	1.43%	3.45%	5.18%	8.13%	9.98%	12.66%	16.77%	19.58%	22.19%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+2.22%

No Edge

43.33%15.56%41.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 7.72 Elo pts.

206 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.16 goals

Neutral

-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.2

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

47%

Fram Reykjavik, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.00/gm

Photo Finish

00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.49 * Some Luck: 4.49 to 6.73 * Lucky: 6.73 to 8.98 * Wild Swing: 8.98 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.21 * Off: 2.21 to 2.95 * Way Off: 2.95 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.99 * A Surprise: 0.99 to 1.58 * Several Surprises: 1.58 to 2.17 * Many Surprises: 2.17 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.84 points

Lucky

05.6114

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

01.844

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.89%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.87%

IA Akranes

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.62

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Strong Edge

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

63%

Very Frequent

0%59%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Frequent

0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.28

Notable Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.46

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.28

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

28%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.56

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.01

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.131

Well Within Noise

00.1680.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik	99.58%	0.42%
Valur Reykjavik	99.03%	0.97%
KR Reykjavik	96.72%	3.28%
KA Akureyri	85.89%	14.11%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	83.05%	16.95%
FH Hafnarfjordur	81.59%	18.41%
Vikingur Reykjavik	79.09%	20.91%
Stjarnan	76.31%	23.69%
IA Akranes	58.23%	41.77%
Thor Akureyri	40.51%	59.49%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1990-05-19	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-4	1101	1203	29.1%	16.4%	54.5%	-40.6	0
1990-05-19	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 4-0	1203	1101	54.5%	16.4%	29.1%	+40.6	3
1990-05-19	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1159	1109	49.8%	16.4%	33.8%	+12.2	3
1990-05-19	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	1109	1159	33.8%	16.4%	49.8%	-12.2	0
1990-05-19	Stjarnan	L 0-2	1116	1117	42.6%	16.5%	40.9%	-29.7	0
1990-05-19	@ Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	1117	1116	40.9%	16.5%	42.6%	+29.7	3
1990-05-20	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1155	1199	36.6%	16.5%	46.9%	+17.1	3
1990-05-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1199	1155	46.9%	16.5%	36.6%	-17.1	0
1990-05-20	IA Akranes	W 1-0	1203	1155	49.5%	16.5%	34.0%	+13.0	3
1990-05-20	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1155	1203	34.0%	16.5%	49.5%	-13.0	0
1990-05-24	IA Akranes	W 4-0	1244	1142	56.4%	16.3%	27.3%	+38.5	6
1990-05-24	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-4	1142	1244	27.3%	16.3%	56.4%	-38.5	0
1990-05-24	Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	1060	1086	39.2%	16.5%	44.3%	+30.7	3
1990-05-24	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1086	1060	44.3%	16.5%	39.2%	-30.7	0
1990-05-24	KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	1147	1171	39.4%	16.5%	44.1%	-24.1	3
1990-05-24	@ Stjarnan	W 3-1	1171	1147	44.1%	16.5%	39.4%	+24.1	6
1990-05-25	KA Akureyri	W 2-0	1216	1182	47.7%	16.5%	35.8%	+25.7	6
1990-05-25	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1182	1216	35.8%	16.5%	47.7%	-25.7	0
1990-05-25	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1097	1172	32.5%	16.4%	51.1%	+34.8	3
1990-05-25	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1172	1097	51.1%	16.4%	32.5%	-34.8	3
1990-06-02	Stjarnan	W 5-1	1137	1123	44.9%	16.5%	38.6%	+43.2	6
1990-06-02	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-5	1123	1137	38.6%	16.5%	44.9%	-43.2	3
1990-06-02	KA Akureyri	W 2-1	1104	1156	35.5%	16.5%	48.0%	+16.5	3
1990-06-02	@ IA Akranes	L 1-2	1156	1104	48.0%	16.5%	35.5%	-16.5	0
1990-06-02	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1195	1091	56.6%	16.3%	27.1%	-20.3	6
1990-06-02	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1091	1195	27.1%	16.3%	56.6%	+20.3	6
1990-06-02	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1055	1283	16.6%	15.8%	67.6%	+5.0	1
1990-06-02	@ Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	1283	1055	67.6%	15.8%	16.6%	-5.0	7
1990-06-02	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1242	1131	57.4%	16.3%	26.3%	-2.6	7
1990-06-02	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1131	1242	26.3%	16.3%	57.4%	+2.6	4
1990-06-05	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	1111	1180	33.3%	16.4%	50.3%	+17.1	9
1990-06-05	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-2	1180	1111	50.3%	16.4%	33.3%	-17.1	6
1990-06-05	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1080	1239	22.7%	16.2%	61.1%	+20.6	6
1990-06-05	@ Stjarnan	L 1-2	1239	1080	61.1%	16.2%	22.7%	-20.6	7
1990-06-06	KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	1060	1175	27.7%	16.3%	56.0%	-10.2	1
1990-06-06	@ Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	1175	1060	56.0%	16.3%	27.7%	+10.2	9
1990-06-06	IA Akranes	D 2-2	1134	1120	44.8%	16.5%	38.7%	-0.4	5
1990-06-06	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1120	1134	38.7%	16.5%	44.8%	+0.4	4
1990-06-07	KA Akureyri	W 4-0	1278	1140	60.4%	16.2%	23.4%	+33.4	10
1990-06-07	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-4	1140	1278	23.4%	16.2%	60.4%	-33.4	0
1990-06-12	Thor Akureyri	L 0-1	1163	1050	57.7%	16.3%	26.0%	-20.7	6
1990-06-12	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1050	1163	26.0%	16.3%	57.7%	+20.7	4
1990-06-12	Stjarnan	D 0-0	1121	1100	45.7%	16.5%	37.8%	-0.7	5
1990-06-12	@ IA Akranes	D 0-0	1100	1121	37.8%	16.5%	45.7%	+0.7	7
1990-06-12	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1106	1134	38.9%	16.5%	44.6%	+30.9	3
1990-06-12	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-2	1134	1106	44.6%	16.5%	38.9%	-30.9	5
1990-06-12	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	1185	1311	26.3%	16.3%	57.4%	-10.4	9
1990-06-12	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1311	1185	57.4%	16.3%	26.3%	+10.4	13
1990-06-15	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 4-1	1219	1128	54.9%	16.4%	28.7%	+25.9	10
1990-06-15	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-4	1128	1219	28.7%	16.4%	54.9%	-25.9	9
1990-06-18	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1321	1103	68.1%	15.8%	16.1%	-24.3	13
1990-06-18	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1103	1321	16.1%	15.8%	68.1%	+24.4	8
1990-06-19	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1102	1120	40.4%	16.5%	43.1%	+15.0	12
1990-06-19	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-2	1120	1102	43.1%	16.5%	40.4%	-15.0	5
1990-06-19	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-2	1174	1143	47.3%	16.5%	36.2%	+12.3	12
1990-06-19	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1143	1174	36.2%	16.5%	47.3%	-12.3	6
1990-06-19	KA Akureyri	L 1-3	1101	1137	37.7%	16.5%	45.8%	-23.2	7
1990-06-19	@ Stjarnan	W 3-1	1137	1101	45.8%	16.5%	37.7%	+23.2	6
1990-06-19	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1071	1245	21.3%	16.1%	62.6%	-8.1	4
1990-06-19	@ Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	1245	1071	62.6%	16.1%	21.3%	+8.1	13
1990-06-27	Fram Reykjavik	W 2-1	1130	1297	22.0%	16.2%	61.9%	+20.8	9
1990-06-27	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1297	1130	61.9%	16.2%	22.0%	-20.8	13
1990-06-27	Thor Akureyri	W 3-1	1105	1062	48.8%	16.5%	34.8%	+21.7	8
1990-06-27	@ IA Akranes	L 1-3	1062	1105	34.8%	16.5%	48.8%	-21.7	4
1990-06-27	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1160	1118	48.8%	16.5%	34.7%	-1.2	7
1990-06-27	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1118	1160	34.7%	16.5%	48.8%	+1.2	13
1990-06-27	KR Reykjavik	W 2-1	1253	1187	51.9%	16.4%	31.7%	+11.5	16
1990-06-27	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1187	1253	31.7%	16.4%	51.9%	-11.5	12
1990-06-29	Stjarnan	W 1-0	1127	1078	49.7%	16.4%	33.8%	+13.0	11
1990-06-29	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1078	1127	33.8%	16.4%	49.7%	-13.0	7
1990-07-02	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1151	1264	27.8%	16.4%	55.9%	-10.9	9
1990-07-02	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1264	1151	55.9%	16.4%	27.8%	+10.9	19
1990-07-02	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1119	1140	39.8%	16.5%	43.7%	+0.2	14
1990-07-02	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1140	1119	43.7%	16.5%	39.8%	-0.2	12
1990-07-02	IA Akranes	W 2-0	1175	1126	49.6%	16.4%	33.9%	+24.5	15
1990-07-02	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1126	1175	33.9%	16.4%	49.6%	-24.5	8
1990-07-02	KA Akureyri	W 2-1	1041	1159	27.2%	16.3%	56.5%	+19.1	7
1990-07-02	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	1159	1041	56.5%	16.3%	27.2%	-19.1	7
1990-07-03	Stjarnan	L 1-3	1276	1065	67.5%	15.8%	16.6%	-39.4	13
1990-07-03	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-1	1065	1276	16.6%	15.8%	67.5%	+39.4	10
1990-07-10	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 2-3	1102	1140	37.4%	16.5%	46.1%	-12.6	8
1990-07-10	@ IA Akranes	W 3-2	1140	1102	46.1%	16.5%	37.4%	+12.6	12
1990-07-10	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1140	1200	34.5%	16.5%	49.0%	-13.2	7
1990-07-10	@ KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1200	1140	49.0%	16.5%	34.5%	+13.2	18
1990-07-10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1104	1119	40.7%	16.5%	42.8%	+0.2	11
1990-07-10	@ Stjarnan	D 1-1	1119	1104	42.8%	16.5%	40.7%	-0.2	15
1990-07-10	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1275	1237	48.2%	16.5%	35.3%	-16.5	19
1990-07-10	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1237	1275	35.3%	16.5%	48.2%	+16.5	16
1990-07-11	Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	1140	1060	53.7%	16.4%	29.9%	-2.2	13
1990-07-11	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1060	1140	29.9%	16.4%	53.7%	+2.2	8
1990-07-14	Valur Reykjavik	L 2-3	1089	1259	21.7%	16.1%	62.1%	-7.8	8
1990-07-14	@ IA Akranes	W 3-2	1259	1089	62.1%	16.1%	21.7%	+7.8	22
1990-07-15	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1138	1213	32.5%	16.4%	51.1%	+1.5	14
1990-07-15	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1213	1138	51.1%	16.4%	32.5%	-1.5	19
1990-07-16	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 3-4	1253	1119	60.1%	16.2%	23.7%	-18.8	16
1990-07-16	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 4-3	1119	1253	23.7%	16.2%	60.1%	+18.8	18
1990-07-16	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 4-0	1127	1153	39.1%	16.5%	44.4%	+58.3	10
1990-07-16	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-4	1153	1127	44.4%	16.5%	39.1%	-58.3	12
1990-07-16	Thor Akureyri	W 3-0	1104	1062	48.7%	16.5%	34.8%	+36.3	14
1990-07-16	@ Stjarnan	L 0-3	1062	1104	34.8%	16.5%	48.7%	-36.4	8
1990-07-22	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1095	1139	36.5%	16.5%	47.0%	+0.8	13
1990-07-22	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	1139	1095	47.0%	16.5%	36.5%	-0.8	15
1990-07-22	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	1082	1235	23.4%	16.2%	60.4%	-17.7	8
1990-07-22	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	1235	1082	60.4%	16.2%	23.4%	+17.7	19
1990-07-22	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1185	1267	31.7%	16.4%	51.9%	-12.2	10
1990-07-22	@ KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1267	1185	51.9%	16.4%	31.7%	+12.2	25
1990-07-23	Stjarnan	W 1-0	1211	1141	52.5%	16.4%	31.1%	+12.0	22
1990-07-23	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1141	1211	31.1%	16.4%	52.5%	-12.0	14
1990-07-26	Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	1252	1026	68.8%	15.8%	15.5%	+6.4	22
1990-07-26	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	1026	1252	15.5%	15.8%	68.8%	-6.4	8
1990-07-26	KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	1137	1223	31.1%	16.4%	52.5%	+1.3	19
1990-07-26	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1223	1137	52.5%	16.4%	31.1%	-1.3	23
1990-07-26	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-1	1129	1095	47.5%	16.5%	36.0%	-17.3	14
1990-07-26	@ Stjarnan	W 1-0	1095	1129	36.0%	16.5%	47.5%	+17.3	16
1990-07-27	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1173	1064	57.2%	16.3%	26.5%	+9.9	13
1990-07-27	@ KA Akureyri	L 1-2	1064	1173	26.5%	16.3%	57.2%	-9.9	8
1990-07-27	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1138	1279	24.7%	16.3%	59.0%	+2.2	16
1990-07-27	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1279	1138	59.0%	16.3%	24.7%	-2.2	26
1990-07-30	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1019	1139	27.1%	16.3%	56.6%	-10.7	8
1990-07-30	@ Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	1139	1019	56.6%	16.3%	27.1%	+10.7	22
1990-08-09	Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	1222	1009	67.7%	15.8%	16.5%	+12.8	26
1990-08-09	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1009	1222	16.5%	15.8%	67.7%	-12.8	8
1990-08-10	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1054	1141	31.1%	16.4%	52.5%	-22.7	8
1990-08-10	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	1141	1054	52.5%	16.4%	31.1%	+22.7	19
1990-08-11	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-2	1113	1149	37.6%	16.5%	45.9%	-13.4	16
1990-08-11	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	1149	1113	45.9%	16.5%	37.6%	+13.4	25
1990-08-12	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	1183	1259	32.4%	16.4%	51.2%	-12.5	13
1990-08-12	@ KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1259	1183	51.2%	16.4%	32.4%	+12.5	25
1990-08-12	Stjarnan	L 0-1	1277	1111	63.3%	16.1%	20.6%	-22.6	26
1990-08-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1111	1277	20.6%	16.1%	63.3%	+22.6	17
1990-08-15	KA Akureyri	L 0-1	1163	1170	41.9%	16.5%	41.6%	-15.5	19
1990-08-15	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1170	1163	41.6%	16.5%	41.9%	+15.5	16
1990-08-16	KR Reykjavik	W 3-0	1271	1235	47.9%	16.5%	35.6%	+37.1	28
1990-08-16	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	1235	1271	35.6%	16.5%	47.9%	-37.1	26
1990-08-16	Valur Reykjavik	L 2-4	1163	1254	30.5%	16.4%	53.1%	-17.3	25
1990-08-16	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 4-2	1254	1163	53.1%	16.4%	30.5%	+17.3	29
1990-08-16	IA Akranes	W 2-0	1134	1031	56.4%	16.3%	27.3%	+20.2	20
1990-08-16	@ Stjarnan	L 0-2	1031	1134	27.3%	16.3%	56.4%	-20.2	8
1990-08-17	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	996	1099	29.0%	16.4%	54.6%	-10.7	8
1990-08-17	@ Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	1099	996	54.6%	16.4%	29.0%	+10.7	19
1990-08-20	KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	1110	1198	30.9%	16.4%	52.7%	-19.5	19
1990-08-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	1198	1110	52.7%	16.4%	30.9%	+19.6	29
1990-08-20	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 3-4	1011	1146	25.4%	16.3%	58.3%	-8.8	8
1990-08-20	@ IA Akranes	W 4-3	1146	1011	58.3%	16.3%	25.4%	+8.8	28
1990-08-20	Stjarnan	L 0-3	1186	1154	47.3%	16.5%	36.2%	-47.2	16
1990-08-20	@ KA Akureyri	W 3-0	1154	1186	36.2%	16.5%	47.3%	+47.2	23
1990-08-20	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	1148	1308	22.6%	16.2%	61.2%	-9.1	19
1990-08-20	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1308	1148	61.2%	16.2%	22.6%	+9.1	31
1990-08-21	Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	1271	985	73.1%	15.4%	11.5%	-6.2	30
1990-08-21	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	985	1271	11.5%	15.4%	73.1%	+6.2	9
1990-08-31	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1217	1265	36.1%	16.5%	47.4%	+47.3	32
1990-08-31	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-3	1265	1217	47.4%	16.5%	36.1%	-47.3	30
1990-09-01	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	1317	1090	68.8%	15.8%	15.4%	-3.5	32
1990-09-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 2-2	1090	1317	15.4%	15.8%	68.8%	+3.5	20
1990-09-01	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1201	1139	51.4%	16.4%	32.1%	+12.4	26
1990-09-01	@ Stjarnan	L 0-1	1139	1201	32.1%	16.4%	51.4%	-12.4	19
1990-09-01	IA Akranes	L 0-1	991	1002	41.3%	16.5%	42.2%	-15.3	9
1990-09-01	@ Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	1002	991	42.2%	16.5%	41.3%	+15.3	11
1990-09-02	KA Akureyri	W 4-2	1154	1139	45.1%	16.5%	38.4%	+21.1	31
1990-09-02	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 2-4	1139	1154	38.4%	16.5%	45.1%	-21.1	16
1990-09-08	KR Reykjavik	L 1-3	1018	1265	15.1%	15.7%	69.2%	-10.2	11
1990-09-08	@ IA Akranes	W 3-1	1265	1018	69.2%	15.7%	15.1%	+10.2	35
1990-09-08	Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	1117	976	60.8%	16.2%	23.0%	-20.5	16
1990-09-08	@ KA Akureyri	W 2-1	976	1117	23.0%	16.2%	60.8%	+20.5	12
1990-09-08	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-6	1214	1314	29.4%	16.4%	54.2%	-41.9	26
1990-09-08	@ Stjarnan	W 6-1	1314	1214	54.2%	16.4%	29.4%	+41.8	35
1990-09-08	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1218	1094	58.9%	16.3%	24.8%	+18.6	33
1990-09-08	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1094	1218	24.8%	16.3%	58.9%	-18.6	20
1990-09-08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-4	1126	1175	35.9%	16.5%	47.6%	-48.8	19
1990-09-08	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1175	1126	47.6%	16.5%	35.9%	+48.8	34
1990-09-15	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1075	1007	52.1%	16.4%	31.5%	+11.5	23
1990-09-15	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1007	1075	31.5%	16.4%	52.1%	-11.5	11
1990-09-15	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-2	1356	1237	58.3%	16.3%	25.4%	+9.0	38
1990-09-15	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 2-3	1237	1356	25.4%	16.3%	58.3%	-9.0	33
1990-09-15	Stjarnan	W 4-3	1224	1172	50.1%	16.4%	33.5%	+11.2	37
1990-09-15	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 3-4	1172	1224	33.5%	16.4%	50.1%	-11.2	26
1990-09-15	KA Akureyri	W 2-0	1275	1097	64.5%	16.0%	19.5%	+14.9	38
1990-09-15	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1097	1275	19.5%	16.0%	64.5%	-14.9	16
1990-09-15	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-1	997	1077	31.8%	16.4%	51.8%	+43.2	15
1990-09-15	@ Thor Akureyri	L 1-4	1077	997	51.8%	16.4%	31.8%	-43.2	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1990-06-18	16.06%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1103	1	@ Fram Reykjavik	1321	0
2	1990-07-03	16.61%	Stjarnan	1065	3	@ Fram Reykjavik	1276	1
3	1990-08-12	20.63%	Stjarnan	1111	1	@ Valur Reykjavik	1277	0
4	1990-06-27	21.99%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1130	2	Fram Reykjavik	1297	1
5	1990-06-05	22.68%	@ Stjarnan	1080	2	Valur Reykjavik	1239	1
6	1990-09-08	22.99%	Thor Akureyri	976	2	@ KA Akureyri	1117	1
7	1990-07-16	23.70%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1119	4	@ Fram Reykjavik	1253	3
8	1990-06-12	26.02%	Thor Akureyri	1050	1	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1163	0
9	1990-06-02	27.08%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1091	1	@ KR Reykjavik	1195	0
10	1990-07-02	27.21%	@ Thor Akureyri	1041	2	KA Akureyri	1159	1
11	1990-09-15	31.77%	@ Thor Akureyri	997	4	Vikingur Reykjavik	1077	1
12	1990-05-25	32.49%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1097	2	FH Hafnarfjordur	1172	0
13	1990-06-05	33.29%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1111	2	FH Hafnarfjordur	1180	1
14	1990-07-10	35.30%	Fram Reykjavik	1237	2	@ Valur Reykjavik	1275	1
15	1990-06-02	35.51%	@ IA Akranes	1104	2	KA Akureyri	1156	1
16	1990-07-26	36.02%	FH Hafnarfjordur	1095	1	@ Stjarnan	1129	0
17	1990-08-31	36.13%	@ KR Reykjavik	1217	3	Valur Reykjavik	1265	0
18	1990-08-20	36.22%	Stjarnan	1154	3	@ KA Akureyri	1186	0
19	1990-05-20	36.65%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1155	1	KA Akureyri	1199	0
20	1990-06-12	38.93%	@ KA Akureyri	1106	2	Vikingur Reykjavik	1134	0
21	1990-07-16	39.14%	@ KA Akureyri	1127	4	FH Hafnarfjordur	1153	0
22	1990-05-24	39.22%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1060	2	Thor Akureyri	1086	0
23	1990-06-19	40.38%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1102	2	IA Akranes	1120	1
24	1990-05-19	40.87%	Stjarnan	1117	2	@ Thor Akureyri	1116	0
25	1990-08-15	41.65%	KA Akureyri	1170	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1163	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1990-07-16	58.30	@ KA Akureyri	4	1127	39.14%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1153	44.36%	16.49%
2	1990-09-08	48.81	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	4	1175	47.59%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1126	35.94%	16.48%
3	1990-08-31	47.26	@ KR Reykjavik	3	1217	36.13%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1265	47.40%	16.48%
4	1990-08-20	47.18	Stjarnan	3	1154	36.22%	@ KA Akureyri	0	1186	47.30%	16.48%
5	1990-06-02	43.23	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	5	1137	44.90%	Stjarnan	1	1123	38.61%	16.49%
6	1990-09-15	43.17	@ Thor Akureyri	4	997	31.77%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1077	51.81%	16.43%
7	1990-09-08	41.85	Fram Reykjavik	6	1314	54.24%	@ Stjarnan	1	1214	29.38%	16.38%
8	1990-05-19	40.63	Fram Reykjavik	4	1203	54.55%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1101	29.08%	16.38%
9	1990-07-03	39.40	Stjarnan	3	1065	16.61%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1	1276	67.54%	15.85%
10	1990-05-24	38.46	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	1244	56.35%	IA Akranes	0	1142	27.32%	16.33%
11	1990-08-16	37.07	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1271	47.92%	KR Reykjavik	0	1235	35.60%	16.47%
12	1990-07-16	36.36	@ Stjarnan	3	1104	48.73%	Thor Akureyri	0	1062	34.81%	16.46%
13	1990-05-25	34.80	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	2	1097	32.49%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1172	51.08%	16.44%
14	1990-06-07	33.43	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	1278	60.44%	KA Akureyri	0	1140	23.35%	16.21%
15	1990-06-12	30.86	@ KA Akureyri	2	1106	38.93%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1134	44.58%	16.49%
16	1990-05-24	30.68	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1060	39.22%	Thor Akureyri	0	1086	44.29%	16.49%
17	1990-05-19	29.71	Stjarnan	2	1117	40.87%	@ Thor Akureyri	0	1116	42.63%	16.50%
18	1990-06-15	25.92	@ Valur Reykjavik	4	1219	54.95%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1	1128	28.68%	16.37%
19	1990-05-25	25.65	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	1216	47.71%	KA Akureyri	0	1182	35.81%	16.47%
20	1990-07-02	24.49	@ KR Reykjavik	2	1175	49.62%	IA Akranes	0	1126	33.93%	16.45%
21	1990-06-18	24.35	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1103	16.06%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1321	68.13%	15.81%
22	1990-05-24	24.09	KR Reykjavik	3	1171	44.08%	@ Stjarnan	1	1147	39.43%	16.50%
23	1990-06-19	23.21	KA Akureyri	3	1137	45.79%	@ Stjarnan	1	1101	37.73%	16.49%
24	1990-08-10	22.68	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	1141	52.54%	@ IA Akranes	0	1054	31.05%	16.41%
25	1990-08-12	22.61	Stjarnan	1	1111	20.63%	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1277	63.28%	16.09%