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1989 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KA Akureyri

34 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Keflavik IF

15 pts

Fylkir Reykjavik · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

FH Hafnarfjordur

10.39 points above expected

32 points · 21.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valur Reykjavik

7.77 points below expected

28 points · 35.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KA Akureyri Champion 18 9 7 2 34 29 15 +14 29.04 +4.96
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 9 5 4 32 27 17 +10 21.61 +10.39
3 Fram Reykjavik 18 10 2 6 32 22 16 +6 36.21 -4.21
4 KR Reykjavik 18 8 5 5 29 28 22 +6 23.29 +5.71
5 Valur Reykjavik 18 8 4 6 28 21 15 +6 35.77 -7.77
6 IA Akranes 18 8 2 8 26 20 21 -1 26.55 -0.55
7 Thor Akureyri 18 4 6 8 18 20 30 -10 18.96 -0.96
8 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 4 5 9 17 24 31 -7 19.70 -2.70
9 Fylkir Reykjavik Relegated 18 5 2 11 17 18 31 -13 19.33 -2.33
10 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 3 6 9 15 18 29 -11 17.72 -2.72

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fram Reykjavik 1270 32 36.21 -4.21 22.9% 19 28 33 36 40 44 54
Valur Reykjavik 1259 28 35.77 -7.77 7.6% 16 27 32 36 39 44 52
KA Akureyri 1251 34 29.04 +4.96 85.2% 5 20 26 29 33 38 47
KR Reykjavik 1160 29 23.29 +5.71 87.4% 6 15 20 23 27 32 49
IA Akranes 1152 26 26.55 -0.55 50.0% 8 18 23 26 30 35 44
FH Hafnarfjordur 1151 32 21.61 +10.39 97.9% 5 13 18 21 25 30 40
Thor Akureyri 1050 18 18.96 -0.96 47.9% 1 11 15 19 22 28 38
Fylkir Reykjavik 1040 17 19.33 -2.33 36.7% 1 11 16 19 23 28 40
Vikingur Reykjavik 1022 17 19.70 -2.70 34.7% 3 12 16 20 23 28 39
Keflavik IF 1002 15 17.72 -2.72 34.1% 2 10 14 17 21 26 40

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FH FR FR IA KA KR KI TA VR VR
FH Hafnarfjordur —
1-1-0
1.27
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
2.24
0-2-0
1.95
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
1.19
1-1-0
3.03
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
4.28
 —
2-0-0
4.47
1-0-1
3.75
0-0-2
3.99
1-0-1
3.87
1-1-0
4.48
1-0-1
4.48
2-0-0
2.59
2-0-0
4.31
Fylkir Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.10
 —
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-1
1.66
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.61
1-0-1
1.15
0-0-2
2.73
IA Akranes
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
1.76
2-0-0
3.25
 —
1-0-1
2.34
2-0-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.78
0-0-2
3.68
0-0-2
1.71
0-1-1
3.60
KA Akureyri
0-2-0
3.55
2-0-0
1.54
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.14
 —
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
4.05
0-2-0
3.76
1-1-0
2.16
1-1-0
3.56
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.73
1-0-1
1.64
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
2.09
 —
2-0-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
3.15
Keflavik IF
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
1.10
1-1-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
2.26
 —
0-2-0
2.59
0-2-0
1.12
2-0-0
2.21
Thor Akureyri
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
1.10
0-0-2
2.88
2-0-0
1.83
0-2-0
1.76
0-1-1
1.97
0-2-0
2.89
 —
0-0-2
1.27
1-1-0
2.90
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.37
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
4.43
2-0-0
3.80
0-1-1
3.35
1-1-0
3.75
0-2-0
4.46
2-0-0
4.29
 —
1-0-1
4.42
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
2.75
1-1-0
1.91
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
3.28
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +12.6
Allowed 0.90 -10.0
Differential 0.94 +7.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%11.11%6.67%3.33%1.11%—30.00%
111.11%8.89%6.11%4.44%1.67%0.56%32.78%
26.67%6.11%6.67%2.78%——22.22%
33.33%4.44%2.78%1.11%——11.67%
41.11%1.67%————2.78%
5+—0.56%————0.56%
Total30.00%32.78%22.22%11.67%2.78%0.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.26 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.13 1.65
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%22.22%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.94 +0.56
SD 1.34 1.00 1.76
CV 0.89 1.06 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
122.22%5.56%—11.11%——38.89%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.89 +0.33
SD 1.11 1.08 1.78
CV 0.91 1.21 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—5.56%11.11%—44.44%
15.56%—16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.72 -0.72
SD 1.14 1.27 1.90
CV 1.14 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
122.22%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.17 -0.06
SD 0.96 1.20 1.63
CV 0.87 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%55.56%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.83 +0.78
SD 1.50 0.79 1.44
CV 0.93 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.22 +0.33
SD 1.04 1.17 1.61
CV 0.67 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
2——11.11%———11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%44.44%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.61 -0.61
SD 0.97 0.98 1.14
CV 0.97 0.61 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%33.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 0.83 1.14 1.42
CV 0.75 0.68 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.83 +0.33
SD 1.10 0.92 1.53
CV 0.94 1.11 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
25.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.72 -0.39
SD 1.19 1.27 1.79
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 32 21.61 +10.39
2 KR Reykjavik 29 23.29 +5.71
3 KA Akureyri 34 29.04 +4.96
4 IA Akranes 26 26.55 -0.55
5 Thor Akureyri 18 18.96 -0.96

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 28 35.77 -7.77
2 Fram Reykjavik 32 36.21 -4.21
3 Keflavik IF 15 17.72 -2.72
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 17 19.70 -2.70
5 Fylkir Reykjavik 17 19.33 -2.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 19 – Jul 2 1 in 37
2 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 8 – Jun 16 1 in 24
3 IA Akranes 3 Jun 9 – Jun 25 1 in 16
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Aug 13 – Aug 16 1 in 16
5 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 1 – Jul 9 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 31 – Aug 28 1 in 1,186
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Aug 29 – Sep 16 1 in 20
3 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 Jun 9 – Jun 25 1 in 13
4 IA Akranes 2 May 25 – Jun 3 1 in 11
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 8 Jul 1 – Aug 17 1 in 181
2 KA Akureyri 11 Jul 9 – Sep 16 1 in 67
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 Jul 24 – Aug 16 1 in 20
4 KR Reykjavik 5 Jun 19 – Jul 14 1 in 18
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Jul 10 – Jul 24 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 31 – Aug 28 1 in 36
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 26 – Jun 8 1 in 23
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 Jun 25 – Aug 2 1 in 16
4 Thor Akureyri 7 May 27 – Jul 10 1 in 9
5 IA Akranes 3 Jul 1 – Jul 13 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KA Akureyri7.86%16.85%28.70%20.30%11.67%6.92%4.11%2.12%1.01%0.46%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.44%2.08%6.17%11.15%15.44%16.25%15.53%13.84%11.14%7.96%
Fram Reykjavik46.01%32.21%13.38%5.32%1.85%0.82%0.25%0.13%0.02%0.01%
KR Reykjavik0.97%3.93%9.29%14.92%17.70%16.37%13.39%10.60%8.12%4.71%
Valur Reykjavik41.33%34.38%15.46%5.71%1.88%0.80%0.30%0.09%0.05%—
IA Akranes2.99%8.10%17.69%22.06%18.39%12.60%8.64%5.08%2.99%1.46%
Thor Akureyri0.10%0.74%2.41%5.00%8.27%11.83%13.99%17.79%19.00%20.87%
Vikingur Reykjavik0.12%0.81%2.90%6.53%10.11%13.19%15.47%16.95%17.52%16.40%
Fylkir Reykjavik0.15%0.51%2.67%5.50%8.64%12.13%15.92%16.73%18.37%19.38%
Keflavik IF0.03%0.39%1.33%3.51%6.05%9.09%12.40%16.67%21.78%28.75%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Slight Edge
43.33%24.44%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
446 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.14 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
8%
KA Akureyri, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.12 * Some Luck: 4.12 to 6.18 * Lucky: 6.18 to 8.25 * Wild Swing: 8.25 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.21 * Close: 1.21 to 1.81 * Off: 1.81 to 2.42 * Way Off: 2.42 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.75 * Several Surprises: 1.75 to 2.41 * Many Surprises: 2.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.14 points
Some Luck
05.1513
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.514
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.91%
FH Hafnarfjordur
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.62%
Valur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.15
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Strong Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.00
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.35
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.46
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.43
Overconfident
0.2600071.001.73999
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.128
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Reykjavik 99.97% 0.03%
Valur Reykjavik 99.95% 0.05%
KA Akureyri 98.53% 1.47%
IA Akranes 95.55% 4.45%
KR Reykjavik 87.17% 12.83%
FH Hafnarfjordur 80.90% 19.10%
Vikingur Reykjavik 66.08% 33.92%
Fylkir Reykjavik 62.25% 37.75%
Thor Akureyri 60.13% 39.87%
Keflavik IF 49.47% 50.53%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1989-05-21 IA Akranes L 1-3 1078 1163 30.7% 25.8% 43.5% -16.0 0
1989-05-21 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1163 1078 43.5% 25.8% 30.7% +16.0 3
1989-05-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1073 1031 48.0% 25.4% 26.5% +8.7 3
1989-05-21 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1031 1073 26.5% 25.4% 48.0% -8.7 0
1989-05-22 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1030 1155 25.9% 25.4% 48.8% +1.6 1
1989-05-22 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1155 1030 48.8% 25.4% 25.9% -1.6 1
1989-05-22 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1056 1316 14.1% 22.7% 63.2% +3.7 1
1989-05-22 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1316 1056 63.2% 22.7% 14.1% -3.7 1
1989-05-23 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1347 1108 68.1% 21.0% 10.9% +3.8 3
1989-05-23 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1108 1347 10.9% 21.0% 68.1% -3.8 0
1989-05-25 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1060 1032 46.3% 25.6% 28.1% -12.7 1
1989-05-25 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1032 1060 28.1% 25.6% 46.3% +12.7 4
1989-05-25 IA Akranes W 2-0 1312 1179 58.5% 23.9% 17.6% +11.5 4
1989-05-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1179 1312 17.6% 23.9% 58.5% -11.5 3
1989-05-26 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1154 1351 18.8% 24.2% 57.1% +26.3 4
1989-05-26 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1351 1154 57.1% 24.2% 18.8% -26.3 3
1989-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1023 1062 37.0% 25.9% 37.1% -11.3 0
1989-05-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1062 1023 37.1% 25.9% 37.0% +11.3 3
1989-05-27 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1105 1082 45.5% 25.7% 28.8% +15.2 3
1989-05-27 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1082 1105 28.8% 25.7% 45.5% -15.2 3
1989-06-03 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1167 1011 60.7% 23.3% 15.9% -32.1 3
1989-06-03 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1011 1167 15.9% 23.3% 60.7% +32.1 3
1989-06-03 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1067 1180 27.3% 25.5% 47.2% +1.4 4
1989-06-03 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1180 1067 47.2% 25.5% 27.3% -1.4 5
1989-06-04 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1044 1324 12.9% 22.1% 65.0% -4.5 4
1989-06-04 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1324 1044 65.0% 22.1% 12.9% +4.5 7
1989-06-04 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1325 1047 71.0% 19.8% 9.2% -4.2 4
1989-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1047 1325 9.2% 19.8% 71.0% +4.2 2
1989-06-05 Fylkir Reykjavik D 2-2 1073 1120 35.9% 25.9% 38.2% +0.1 4
1989-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1120 1073 38.2% 25.9% 35.9% -0.1 4
1989-06-08 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1040 1321 12.8% 22.1% 65.1% +34.1 7
1989-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 1321 1040 65.1% 22.1% 12.8% -34.1 4
1989-06-08 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1052 1068 40.2% 25.9% 33.9% -0.4 3
1989-06-08 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1068 1052 33.9% 25.9% 40.2% +0.4 5
1989-06-08 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1328 1044 71.6% 19.6% 8.9% +3.0 10
1989-06-08 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1044 1328 8.9% 19.6% 71.6% -3.0 3
1989-06-09 IA Akranes L 0-1 1120 1135 40.3% 25.9% 33.8% -12.1 4
1989-06-09 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1135 1120 33.8% 25.9% 40.3% +12.1 6
1989-06-09 KR Reykjavik W 4-1 1179 1073 55.5% 24.4% 20.0% +15.8 8
1989-06-09 @ KA Akureyri L 1-4 1073 1179 20.0% 24.4% 55.5% -15.8 4
1989-06-16 KA Akureyri W 2-0 1147 1195 35.8% 25.9% 38.2% +21.8 9
1989-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1195 1147 38.2% 25.9% 35.8% -21.8 8
1989-06-16 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1069 1074 41.8% 25.8% 32.4% -11.1 5
1989-06-16 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1074 1069 32.4% 25.8% 41.8% +11.1 10
1989-06-18 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1287 1331 36.2% 25.9% 37.9% +11.5 7
1989-06-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1331 1287 37.9% 25.9% 36.2% -11.5 10
1989-06-19 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1057 1051 43.3% 25.8% 30.9% +27.0 7
1989-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1051 1057 30.9% 25.8% 43.3% -27.0 3
1989-06-20 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1041 1108 33.1% 25.9% 41.1% +43.7 6
1989-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-4 1108 1041 41.1% 25.9% 33.1% -43.7 4
1989-06-25 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 1085 1084 42.6% 25.8% 31.6% -34.4 10
1989-06-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1084 1085 31.6% 25.8% 42.6% +34.4 10
1989-06-25 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1173 1084 53.6% 24.8% 21.6% -1.3 9
1989-06-25 @ KA Akureyri D 3-3 1084 1173 21.6% 24.8% 53.6% +1.3 7
1989-06-25 IA Akranes L 1-3 1024 1169 23.7% 25.1% 51.2% -13.0 3
1989-06-25 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1169 1024 51.2% 25.1% 23.7% +13.0 12
1989-06-25 Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-1 1320 1064 69.4% 20.5% 10.1% +8.1 13
1989-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1064 1320 10.1% 20.5% 69.4% -8.1 4
1989-06-26 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1298 1058 68.2% 21.0% 10.9% +7.1 10
1989-06-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1058 1298 10.9% 21.0% 68.2% -7.1 5
1989-06-29 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1056 1171 27.0% 25.5% 47.5% +13.8 7
1989-06-29 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 0-1 1171 1056 47.5% 25.5% 27.0% -13.8 9
1989-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1050 1328 13.1% 22.2% 64.8% -4.6 5
1989-06-30 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1328 1050 64.8% 22.2% 13.1% +4.6 16
1989-07-01 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1182 1051 58.3% 23.9% 17.8% -3.0 13
1989-07-01 @ IA Akranes D 0-0 1051 1182 17.8% 23.9% 58.3% +3.0 11
1989-07-01 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1086 1011 52.0% 25.0% 23.0% -13.3 7
1989-07-01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1011 1086 23.0% 25.0% 52.0% +13.3 6
1989-07-02 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1119 1305 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% +15.8 13
1989-07-02 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1305 1119 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% -15.8 10
1989-07-09 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1054 1072 39.9% 25.9% 34.2% -0.2 12
1989-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1072 1054 34.2% 25.9% 39.9% +0.2 8
1989-07-09 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1025 1070 36.1% 25.9% 38.0% +11.5 9
1989-07-09 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1070 1025 38.0% 25.9% 36.1% -11.5 7
1989-07-09 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1333 1158 62.5% 22.9% 14.6% -17.5 16
1989-07-09 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1158 1333 14.6% 22.9% 62.5% +17.5 12
1989-07-10 IA Akranes W 4-1 1289 1179 56.0% 24.4% 19.6% +15.5 13
1989-07-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 1179 1289 19.6% 24.4% 56.0% -15.6 13
1989-07-10 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1046 1135 30.3% 25.7% 44.0% +0.6 6
1989-07-10 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1135 1046 44.0% 25.7% 30.3% -0.6 14
1989-07-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-4 1058 1053 43.1% 25.8% 31.1% -45.5 7
1989-07-12 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 4-0 1053 1058 31.1% 25.8% 43.1% +45.5 15
1989-07-13 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1164 1046 56.8% 24.2% 19.0% -15.1 13
1989-07-13 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1046 1164 19.0% 24.2% 56.8% +15.1 9
1989-07-13 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1175 1036 59.1% 23.7% 17.2% +5.6 15
1989-07-13 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1036 1175 17.2% 23.7% 59.1% -5.6 9
1989-07-13 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1072 1305 16.0% 23.4% 60.6% -10.5 8
1989-07-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 1305 1072 60.6% 23.4% 16.0% +10.5 16
1989-07-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1134 1315 20.2% 24.5% 55.3% +2.3 15
1989-07-14 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1315 1134 55.3% 24.5% 20.2% -2.3 17
1989-07-21 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1013 1315 11.6% 21.4% 66.9% -11.1 7
1989-07-21 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 3-0 1315 1013 66.9% 21.4% 11.6% +11.1 19
1989-07-21 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1181 1099 52.9% 24.9% 22.2% -2.0 16
1989-07-21 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1099 1181 22.2% 24.9% 52.9% +2.0 16
1989-07-22 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1148 1136 44.1% 25.7% 30.1% +9.7 16
1989-07-22 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1136 1148 30.1% 25.7% 44.1% -9.7 15
1989-07-23 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1313 1030 71.4% 19.6% 9.0% -3.2 18
1989-07-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1030 1313 9.0% 19.6% 71.4% +3.2 10
1989-07-24 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1062 1062 42.5% 25.8% 31.7% -0.7 9
1989-07-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1062 1062 31.7% 25.8% 42.5% +0.6 10
1989-07-26 KA Akureyri L 1-3 1326 1179 59.9% 23.5% 16.6% -27.5 19
1989-07-26 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1179 1326 16.6% 23.5% 59.9% +27.5 19
1989-07-27 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1101 1034 51.1% 25.1% 23.8% +7.5 19
1989-07-27 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1034 1101 23.8% 25.1% 51.1% -7.5 10
1989-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1158 1310 23.0% 25.0% 51.9% -14.6 16
1989-07-27 @ IA Akranes W 2-0 1310 1158 51.9% 25.0% 23.0% +14.6 21
1989-07-27 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1127 1061 50.9% 25.1% 23.9% -1.3 16
1989-07-27 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1061 1127 23.9% 25.1% 50.9% +1.3 10
1989-07-28 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1062 1002 50.3% 25.2% 24.4% -23.6 10
1989-07-28 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1002 1062 24.4% 25.2% 50.3% +23.6 10
1989-07-31 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1324 1108 66.2% 21.7% 12.1% -18.4 21
1989-07-31 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1108 1324 12.1% 21.7% 66.2% +18.4 22
1989-08-01 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1025 1125 28.8% 25.7% 45.5% -8.8 10
1989-08-01 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1125 1025 45.5% 25.7% 28.8% +8.8 19
1989-08-01 Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1206 1039 61.9% 23.0% 15.1% -3.1 20
1989-08-01 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1039 1206 15.1% 23.0% 61.9% +3.1 11
1989-08-01 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1026 1299 13.3% 22.3% 64.4% -4.7 10
1989-08-01 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1299 1026 64.4% 22.3% 13.3% +4.7 22
1989-08-02 IA Akranes D 1-1 1063 1144 31.2% 25.8% 43.0% +0.7 11
1989-08-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1144 1063 43.0% 25.8% 31.2% -0.7 17
1989-08-11 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1042 1021 45.2% 25.7% 29.1% -0.7 12
1989-08-11 @ Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1021 1042 29.1% 25.7% 45.2% +0.7 11
1989-08-12 Fylkir Reykjavik W 1-0 1143 1016 57.8% 24.0% 18.2% +6.3 20
1989-08-12 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1016 1143 18.2% 24.0% 57.8% -6.3 10
1989-08-12 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1134 1203 32.8% 25.9% 41.3% +0.6 20
1989-08-12 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1203 1134 41.3% 25.9% 32.8% -0.6 21
1989-08-13 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1063 1306 15.3% 23.1% 61.6% +16.3 14
1989-08-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1306 1063 61.6% 23.1% 15.3% -16.3 21
1989-08-14 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1304 1127 62.7% 22.8% 14.5% -3.6 23
1989-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1127 1304 14.5% 22.8% 62.7% +3.6 23
1989-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1010 1080 32.8% 25.9% 41.4% -9.7 10
1989-08-16 @ Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1080 1010 41.4% 25.9% 32.8% +9.7 17
1989-08-17 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1130 1041 53.7% 24.8% 21.5% +20.0 26
1989-08-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1041 1130 21.5% 24.8% 53.7% -20.0 12
1989-08-17 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 1022 1135 27.3% 25.5% 47.1% -14.6 11
1989-08-17 @ Keflavik IF W 3-1 1135 1022 47.1% 25.5% 27.3% +14.6 23
1989-08-17 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1290 1300 41.1% 25.9% 33.1% -23.0 21
1989-08-17 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1300 1290 33.1% 25.9% 41.1% +23.0 26
1989-08-18 IA Akranes W 1-0 1203 1149 49.5% 25.3% 25.2% +8.4 24
1989-08-18 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1149 1203 25.2% 25.3% 49.5% -8.4 20
1989-08-26 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1141 1008 58.5% 23.9% 17.7% +6.1 23
1989-08-26 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1008 1141 17.7% 23.9% 58.5% -6.1 11
1989-08-27 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1021 1323 11.7% 21.4% 66.9% +34.9 15
1989-08-27 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-2 1323 1021 66.9% 21.4% 11.7% -34.9 26
1989-08-28 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 1000 1267 13.7% 22.5% 63.8% +29.1 13
1989-08-28 @ Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-3 1267 1000 63.8% 22.5% 13.7% -29.1 21
1989-08-29 KA Akureyri L 1-5 1089 1211 26.3% 25.4% 48.3% -25.8 17
1989-08-29 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 5-1 1211 1089 48.3% 25.4% 26.3% +25.8 27
1989-08-30 FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1149 1150 42.4% 25.8% 31.8% +19.0 26
1989-08-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1150 1149 31.8% 25.8% 42.4% -19.0 26
1989-09-02 IA Akranes W 3-2 1131 1147 40.3% 25.9% 33.8% +9.4 29
1989-09-02 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1147 1131 33.8% 25.9% 40.3% -9.4 23
1989-09-02 Fylkir Reykjavik W 2-1 1237 1029 65.4% 21.9% 12.6% +4.2 30
1989-09-02 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1029 1237 12.6% 21.9% 65.4% -4.2 13
1989-09-02 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 1001 1063 33.8% 25.9% 40.4% +10.8 14
1989-09-02 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1063 1001 40.4% 25.9% 33.8% -10.8 17
1989-09-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1238 1056 63.1% 22.7% 14.2% +13.6 24
1989-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1056 1238 14.2% 22.7% 63.1% -13.6 15
1989-09-03 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1288 1168 57.1% 24.2% 18.8% +6.1 29
1989-09-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1168 1288 18.8% 24.2% 57.1% -6.1 26
1989-09-09 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1137 1294 22.5% 24.9% 52.6% +28.3 26
1989-09-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1294 1137 52.6% 24.9% 22.5% -28.3 29
1989-09-09 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1241 1251 41.1% 25.9% 33.1% -0.5 31
1989-09-09 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1251 1241 33.1% 25.9% 41.1% +0.5 25
1989-09-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1162 1042 57.1% 24.2% 18.8% +5.8 29
1989-09-09 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1042 1162 18.8% 24.2% 57.1% -5.8 15
1989-09-10 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1025 1012 44.3% 25.7% 30.0% -1.0 14
1989-09-10 @ Fylkir Reykjavik D 0-0 1012 1025 30.0% 25.7% 44.3% +1.0 15
1989-09-10 FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1053 1141 30.3% 25.8% 43.9% -26.6 17
1989-09-10 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1141 1053 43.9% 25.8% 30.3% +26.6 32
1989-09-16 Fylkir Reykjavik L 1-2 1167 1024 59.5% 23.6% 16.9% -15.8 32
1989-09-16 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1024 1167 16.9% 23.6% 59.5% +15.8 17
1989-09-16 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1266 1026 68.1% 21.0% 10.9% +3.8 32
1989-09-16 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1026 1266 10.9% 21.0% 68.1% -3.8 17
1989-09-16 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1013 1241 16.4% 23.5% 60.1% -10.8 15
1989-09-16 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 1241 1013 60.1% 23.5% 16.4% +10.8 34
1989-09-16 IA Akranes W 2-1 1037 1166 25.4% 25.3% 49.2% +13.4 18
1989-09-16 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1166 1037 49.2% 25.3% 25.4% -13.4 26
1989-09-16 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1252 1168 53.1% 24.9% 22.1% +7.5 28
1989-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1168 1252 22.1% 24.9% 53.1% -7.5 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1989-08-27 11.68% @ Thor Akureyri 1021 2 Fram Reykjavik 1323 0
2 1989-07-31 12.13% FH Hafnarfjordur 1108 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1324 0
3 1989-06-08 12.85% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1040 2 Fram Reykjavik 1321 0
4 1989-08-28 13.73% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1000 3 Valur Reykjavik 1267 1
5 1989-07-09 14.62% KA Akureyri 1158 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1333 0
6 1989-08-13 15.28% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1063 2 Valur Reykjavik 1306 1
7 1989-06-03 15.93% Vikingur Reykjavik 1011 2 @ IA Akranes 1167 0
8 1989-07-26 16.55% KA Akureyri 1179 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 1326 1
9 1989-09-16 16.90% Fylkir Reykjavik 1024 2 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1167 1
10 1989-05-26 18.76% @ KA Akureyri 1154 3 Fram Reykjavik 1351 1
11 1989-07-13 18.99% Thor Akureyri 1046 2 @ IA Akranes 1164 1
12 1989-07-02 19.71% @ KR Reykjavik 1119 1 Fram Reykjavik 1305 0
13 1989-09-09 22.51% @ IA Akranes 1137 2 Fram Reykjavik 1294 0
14 1989-07-01 23.02% Keflavik IF 1011 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1086 2
15 1989-07-28 24.44% Fylkir Reykjavik 1002 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1062 1
16 1989-09-16 25.44% @ Thor Akureyri 1037 2 IA Akranes 1166 1
17 1989-06-29 26.98% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1056 1 KA Akureyri 1171 0
18 1989-05-25 28.12% FH Hafnarfjordur 1032 2 @ Keflavik IF 1060 1
19 1989-07-12 31.06% FH Hafnarfjordur 1053 4 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1058 0
20 1989-06-25 31.60% KR Reykjavik 1084 3 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1085 0
21 1989-06-16 32.40% FH Hafnarfjordur 1074 3 @ Thor Akureyri 1069 2
22 1989-06-20 33.07% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1041 4 Fylkir Reykjavik 1108 0
23 1989-08-17 33.08% Fram Reykjavik 1300 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1290 0
24 1989-09-02 33.77% @ Keflavik IF 1001 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1063 2
25 1989-06-09 33.78% IA Akranes 1135 1 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 1120 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1989-07-12 45.47 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 1053 31.06% @ Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1058 43.15% 25.78%
2 1989-06-20 43.72 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1041 33.07% Fylkir Reykjavik 0 1108 41.06% 25.86%
3 1989-08-27 34.94 @ Thor Akureyri 2 1021 11.68% Fram Reykjavik 0 1323 66.88% 21.44%
4 1989-06-25 34.44 KR Reykjavik 3 1084 31.60% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1085 42.59% 25.81%
5 1989-06-08 34.14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 1040 12.85% Fram Reykjavik 0 1321 65.08% 22.06%
6 1989-06-03 32.14 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1011 15.93% @ IA Akranes 0 1167 60.74% 23.33%
7 1989-08-28 29.06 @ Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1000 13.73% Valur Reykjavik 1 1267 63.79% 22.47%
8 1989-09-09 28.28 @ IA Akranes 2 1137 22.51% Fram Reykjavik 0 1294 52.57% 24.93%
9 1989-07-26 27.50 KA Akureyri 3 1179 16.55% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1326 59.92% 23.54%
10 1989-06-19 26.97 @ KR Reykjavik 3 1057 43.32% Keflavik IF 0 1051 30.90% 25.78%
11 1989-09-10 26.59 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1141 43.91% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1053 30.35% 25.75%
12 1989-05-26 26.33 @ KA Akureyri 3 1154 18.76% Fram Reykjavik 1 1351 57.08% 24.16%
13 1989-08-29 25.79 KA Akureyri 5 1211 48.32% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1089 26.26% 25.42%
14 1989-07-28 23.60 Fylkir Reykjavik 3 1002 24.44% @ Thor Akureyri 1 1062 50.35% 25.21%
15 1989-08-17 23.04 Fram Reykjavik 2 1300 33.08% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1290 41.06% 25.86%
16 1989-06-16 21.82 @ IA Akranes 2 1147 35.83% KA Akureyri 0 1195 38.25% 25.92%
17 1989-08-17 20.05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1130 53.70% Thor Akureyri 0 1041 21.54% 24.76%
18 1989-08-30 19.00 @ KR Reykjavik 2 1149 42.35% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1150 31.83% 25.82%
19 1989-07-31 18.36 FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1108 12.13% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1324 66.17% 21.69%
20 1989-07-09 17.49 KA Akureyri 1 1158 14.62% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1333 62.53% 22.85%
21 1989-08-13 16.27 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1063 15.28% Valur Reykjavik 1 1306 61.62% 23.10%
22 1989-05-21 16.00 IA Akranes 3 1163 43.53% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1078 30.70% 25.76%
23 1989-06-09 15.84 @ KA Akureyri 4 1179 55.54% KR Reykjavik 1 1073 20.01% 24.45%
24 1989-07-02 15.83 @ KR Reykjavik 1 1119 19.71% Fram Reykjavik 0 1305 55.90% 24.39%
25 1989-09-16 15.77 Fylkir Reykjavik 2 1024 16.90% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 1167 59.45% 23.65%