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1984 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

26 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 1983.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

16 pts

Breidablik · 20 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

2.42 points above expected

19 points · 21.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

13.11 points below expected

12 points · 25.11 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 12 2 4 26 33 18 +15 29.40 -3.40
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 7 7 4 21 24 16 +8 24.03 -3.03
3 Keflavik IF 18 8 3 7 19 19 22 -3 24.90 -5.90
4 KR Reykjavik 18 6 7 5 19 20 23 -3 21.42 -2.42
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 6 6 6 18 29 28 +1 23.22 -5.22
6 Throttur Reykjavik 18 5 7 6 17 19 19 0 23.17 -6.17
7 Fram Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 16 23 22 +1 26.15 -10.15
8 Thor Akureyri 18 6 4 8 16 25 25 0 21.87 -5.87
9 Breidablik Relegated 18 4 8 6 16 17 20 -3 23.62 -7.62
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 4 10 12 23 39 -16 25.11 -13.11

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IA Akranes 1075 26 29.40 -3.40 95.4% 11 21 26 29 33 38 52
Valur Reykjavik 1019 21 24.03 -3.03 79.8% 5 15 20 24 28 33 45
Fram Reykjavik 1008 16 26.15 -10.15 25.0% 8 17 22 26 30 35 48
Vikingur Reykjavik 972 18 23.22 -5.22 59.8% 5 14 20 23 27 32 43
Thor Akureyri 965 16 21.87 -5.87 55.4% 5 13 18 22 25 31 42
KR Reykjavik 963 19 21.42 -2.42 79.0% 3 13 18 21 25 30 43
Breidablik 957 16 23.62 -7.62 28.2% 6 15 20 24 27 33 44
Throttur Reykjavik 957 17 23.17 -6.17 46.3% 6 14 20 23 27 32 45
Keflavik IF 925 19 24.90 -5.90 69.0% 7 16 21 25 29 34 45
KA Akureyri 886 12 25.11 -13.11 5.1% 7 16 21 25 29 34 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA KA KR KI TA TR VR VR
Breidablik —
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.05
2-0-0
2.65
0-2-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
2.93
0-2-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.58
Fram Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.98
 —
0-0-2
2.60
2-0-0
2.92
0-0-2
3.25
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.02
0-2-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.87
IA Akranes
2-0-0
3.36
2-0-0
2.79
 —
2-0-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
3.42
1-0-1
3.23
0-1-1
3.23
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-2
2.37
 —
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
2.81
0-1-1
3.07
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.06
KR Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.45
2-0-0
2.16
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.40
 —
2-0-0
2.18
0-0-2
2.76
1-1-0
2.56
0-2-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.66
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.58
0-0-2
3.22
 —
0-1-1
3.01
2-0-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.84
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
1.95
1-1-0
2.33
2-0-0
2.64
1-1-0
2.38
 —
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
2.69
Throttur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.68
2-0-0
2.77
 —
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.62
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
2.47
0-2-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
2.72
 —
1-0-1
2.81
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
2.34
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.29 +4.0
Allowed 0.47 -3.9
Differential 0.80 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%10.00%4.44%4.44%0.56%—30.56%
110.00%10.00%7.78%2.22%0.56%—30.56%
24.44%7.78%5.56%3.33%1.11%1.11%23.33%
34.44%2.22%3.33%2.22%——12.22%
40.56%0.56%1.11%———2.22%
5+——1.11%———1.11%
Total30.56%30.56%23.33%12.22%2.22%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.55
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
116.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.11 -0.17
SD 0.87 1.08 1.10
CV 0.92 0.97 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
116.67%11.11%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%—5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.07 1.11 1.59
CV 0.84 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%—11.11%———27.78%
216.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.00 +0.83
SD 0.86 1.24 1.42
CV 0.47 1.24 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%—5.56%—33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%38.89%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.17 -0.89
SD 1.23 1.42 1.81
CV 0.96 0.66 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%—11.11%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.28 -0.17
SD 1.13 1.49 1.65
CV 1.02 1.16 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
2—22.22%——5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.22 -0.17
SD 0.94 1.17 1.47
CV 0.89 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—11.11%——38.89%
1—11.11%————11.11%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%50.00%11.11%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.42 1.04 1.75
CV 1.02 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 1.06 1.00 1.14
CV 1.00 0.95 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%————33.33%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%55.56%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.89 +0.44
SD 1.37 0.68 1.25
CV 1.03 0.76 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.58 1.10 1.92
CV 0.98 0.70 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 19 21.42 -2.42
2 Valur Reykjavik 21 24.03 -3.03
3 IA Akranes 26 29.40 -3.40
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 23.22 -5.22
5 Thor Akureyri 16 21.87 -5.87

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 12 25.11 -13.11
2 Fram Reykjavik 16 26.15 -10.15
3 Breidablik 16 23.62 -7.62
4 Throttur Reykjavik 17 23.17 -6.17
5 Keflavik IF 19 24.90 -5.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 9 Jun 6 – Jul 21 1 in 2,137
2 Keflavik IF 4 May 26 – Jun 12 1 in 96
3 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 21 – Jul 28 1 in 51
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Aug 20 1 in 34
5 Thor Akureyri 3 Aug 14 – Sep 1 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 4 Aug 19 – Sep 15 1 in 121
2 KA Akureyri 4 Jul 22 – Aug 18 1 in 56
3 IA Akranes 2 Jul 28 – Aug 14 1 in 20
4 KR Reykjavik 3 Jun 8 – Jun 16 1 in 17
5 Thor Akureyri 3 May 27 – Jun 7 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 10 Jun 2 – Jul 21 1 in 27
2 Keflavik IF 7 May 18 – Jun 15 1 in 25
3 Valur Reykjavik 6 Jul 27 – Sep 16 1 in 12
4 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 27 – Sep 8 1 in 10
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 Jul 21 – Aug 16 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 22 – Sep 15 1 in 15
2 Fram Reykjavik 5 Jul 8 – Aug 14 1 in 14
3 Breidablik 6 Jun 30 – Aug 16 1 in 14
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 5 May 17 – Jun 13 1 in 8
5 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 18 – Jun 11 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes35.51%19.15%12.79%9.62%7.50%5.45%4.18%2.82%1.93%1.05%
Valur Reykjavik8.53%10.12%10.86%10.66%10.49%10.98%10.40%10.30%9.29%8.37%
Keflavik IF9.09%11.69%11.20%11.16%10.97%10.87%10.02%9.31%8.23%7.46%
KR Reykjavik2.77%4.35%6.34%6.90%8.89%10.28%11.25%13.55%15.95%19.72%
Vikingur Reykjavik5.70%8.11%9.38%10.36%9.67%10.53%11.38%11.61%11.60%11.66%
Throttur Reykjavik5.82%7.53%8.87%9.92%9.83%10.97%11.57%11.43%12.00%12.06%
Fram Reykjavik13.60%14.69%13.25%11.94%11.21%9.34%8.59%6.85%6.17%4.36%
Thor Akureyri3.40%5.64%6.70%7.86%10.08%10.28%11.19%12.94%14.79%17.12%
Breidablik6.08%8.05%9.73%9.99%10.60%11.20%11.10%11.38%11.23%10.64%
KA Akureyri9.50%10.67%10.88%11.59%10.76%10.10%10.32%9.81%8.81%7.56%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Slight Edge
38.89%28.89%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
442 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
IA Akranes, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.26 * Some Luck: 4.26 to 6.39 * Lucky: 6.39 to 8.52 * Wild Swing: 8.52 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.05 * Close: 2.05 to 3.08 * Off: 3.08 to 4.11 * Way Off: 4.11 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.32 * A Surprise: 1.32 to 2.12 * Several Surprises: 2.12 to 2.91 * Many Surprises: 2.91 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.71 points
Some Luck
05.3213
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.00
Close
02.576
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.37%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.07%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.10
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.87
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Clear Edge
50%73%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.17
Slight Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
-0.24
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.07
Overconfident
01.002.20284
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1720.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IA Akranes 97.02% 2.98%
Fram Reykjavik 89.47% 10.53%
Keflavik IF 84.31% 15.69%
KA Akureyri 83.63% 16.37%
Valur Reykjavik 82.34% 17.66%
Breidablik 78.13% 21.87%
Vikingur Reykjavik 76.74% 23.26%
Throttur Reykjavik 75.94% 24.06%
Thor Akureyri 68.09% 31.91%
KR Reykjavik 64.33% 35.67%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1984-05-17 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 964 958 39.5% 30.5% 30.0% -0.5 1
1984-05-17 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 958 964 30.0% 30.5% 39.5% +0.5 1
1984-05-18 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 991 1015 35.2% 30.6% 34.1% +9.0 2
1984-05-18 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1015 991 34.1% 30.6% 35.2% -9.0 0
1984-05-18 Keflavik IF D 0-0 956 956 38.6% 30.5% 30.9% -0.4 1
1984-05-18 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 956 956 30.9% 30.5% 38.6% +0.4 1
1984-05-20 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1013 952 46.8% 29.5% 23.7% -10.8 0
1984-05-20 @ KA Akureyri W 2-1 952 1013 23.7% 29.5% 46.8% +10.8 2
1984-05-20 Breidablik D 0-0 950 971 35.6% 30.6% 33.7% -0.1 1
1984-05-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 971 950 33.7% 30.6% 35.6% +0.1 1
1984-05-23 KA Akureyri D 1-1 956 1002 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% +0.2 2
1984-05-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1002 956 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% -0.2 1
1984-05-23 Breidablik D 1-1 958 971 36.7% 30.6% 32.7% -0.2 2
1984-05-23 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 971 958 32.7% 30.6% 36.7% +0.2 2
1984-05-26 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1000 956 44.6% 29.9% 25.6% -10.4 2
1984-05-26 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 956 1000 25.6% 29.9% 44.6% +10.4 4
1984-05-26 Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1002 964 43.7% 30.0% 26.2% -0.5 2
1984-05-26 @ KA Akureyri D 3-3 964 1002 26.2% 30.0% 43.7% +0.5 2
1984-05-26 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 956 958 38.2% 30.6% 31.2% -0.4 2
1984-05-26 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 958 956 31.2% 30.6% 38.2% +0.4 3
1984-05-27 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 972 1006 33.7% 30.6% 35.7% -9.0 2
1984-05-27 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1006 972 35.7% 30.6% 33.7% +9.0 2
1984-05-27 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 950 963 36.8% 30.6% 32.6% +23.9 3
1984-05-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-3 963 950 32.6% 30.6% 36.8% -24.0 2
1984-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 958 1015 30.7% 30.5% 38.8% +8.9 5
1984-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 1015 958 38.8% 30.5% 30.7% -8.9 2
1984-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 1006 974 42.9% 30.1% 27.0% -0.6 3
1984-06-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 974 1006 27.0% 30.1% 42.9% +0.6 4
1984-06-02 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 967 975 37.4% 30.6% 32.0% +8.6 6
1984-06-02 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 975 967 32.0% 30.6% 37.4% -8.6 4
1984-06-02 Breidablik L 0-1 939 963 35.2% 30.6% 34.2% -9.2 2
1984-06-02 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 963 939 34.2% 30.6% 35.2% +9.2 4
1984-06-02 IA Akranes D 2-2 965 990 34.9% 30.6% 34.4% -0.0 3
1984-06-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 990 965 34.4% 30.6% 34.9% +0.0 3
1984-06-03 KA Akureyri L 1-2 955 1001 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% -8.2 2
1984-06-03 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1001 955 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% +8.2 4
1984-06-06 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 990 947 44.4% 29.9% 25.7% +7.3 5
1984-06-06 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 947 990 25.7% 29.9% 44.4% -7.3 2
1984-06-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 966 964 38.8% 30.5% 30.7% +8.4 6
1984-06-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 964 966 30.7% 30.5% 38.8% -8.4 3
1984-06-07 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1005 929 48.7% 29.1% 22.2% +6.5 5
1984-06-07 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 929 1005 22.2% 29.1% 48.7% -6.5 2
1984-06-08 Keflavik IF L 0-1 972 975 38.1% 30.6% 31.4% -9.8 4
1984-06-08 @ Breidablik W 1-0 975 972 31.4% 30.6% 38.1% +9.8 8
1984-06-08 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1009 967 44.3% 29.9% 25.8% +13.8 6
1984-06-08 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 967 1009 25.8% 29.9% 44.3% -13.8 5
1984-06-11 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 940 975 33.6% 30.6% 35.8% +0.1 3
1984-06-11 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 975 940 35.8% 30.6% 33.6% -0.1 7
1984-06-12 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 985 1012 34.8% 30.6% 34.6% +8.6 10
1984-06-12 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1012 985 34.6% 30.6% 34.8% -8.6 5
1984-06-12 Thor Akureyri L 2-5 953 923 42.8% 30.1% 27.1% -21.3 5
1984-06-12 @ KR Reykjavik W 5-2 923 953 27.1% 30.1% 42.8% +21.3 4
1984-06-13 IA Akranes L 0-2 1023 997 42.1% 30.2% 27.6% -19.9 6
1984-06-13 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 997 1023 27.6% 30.2% 42.1% +19.9 7
1984-06-13 Breidablik D 2-2 956 962 37.7% 30.6% 31.7% -0.2 4
1984-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 962 956 31.7% 30.6% 37.7% +0.2 5
1984-06-15 Keflavik IF D 0-0 944 994 31.6% 30.6% 37.9% +0.3 5
1984-06-15 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 994 944 37.9% 30.6% 31.6% -0.3 11
1984-06-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 962 940 41.7% 30.3% 28.1% -9.8 5
1984-06-16 @ Breidablik W 2-1 940 962 28.1% 30.3% 41.7% +9.9 5
1984-06-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1003 956 45.0% 29.8% 25.2% -10.5 5
1984-06-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 956 1003 25.2% 29.8% 45.0% +10.5 6
1984-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1017 932 49.8% 28.8% 21.4% +11.8 9
1984-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 932 1017 21.4% 28.8% 49.8% -11.8 5
1984-06-18 KA Akureyri L 2-3 975 1003 34.5% 30.6% 34.9% -8.1 7
1984-06-18 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1003 975 34.9% 30.6% 34.5% +8.1 8
1984-06-22 Breidablik L 0-1 1011 952 46.5% 29.5% 23.9% -11.4 8
1984-06-22 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 952 1011 23.9% 29.5% 46.5% +11.4 7
1984-06-23 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1029 945 49.7% 28.8% 21.4% +5.6 11
1984-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 945 1029 21.4% 28.8% 49.7% -5.6 5
1984-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1035 966 47.7% 29.3% 23.0% +12.6 13
1984-06-23 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 966 1035 23.0% 29.3% 47.7% -12.6 7
1984-06-23 Thor Akureyri L 0-2 966 939 42.4% 30.2% 27.5% -19.9 6
1984-06-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 939 966 27.5% 30.2% 42.4% +19.9 7
1984-06-24 Keflavik IF W 1-0 920 994 28.5% 30.3% 41.1% +10.3 7
1984-06-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 994 920 41.1% 30.3% 28.5% -10.3 11
1984-06-25 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 950 993 32.5% 30.6% 36.9% +0.2 6
1984-06-25 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 993 950 36.9% 30.6% 32.5% -0.2 6
1984-06-28 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 954 931 41.8% 30.3% 28.0% -0.8 8
1984-06-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 931 954 28.0% 30.3% 41.8% +0.8 8
1984-06-29 Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 959 950 39.8% 30.4% 29.7% -9.0 7
1984-06-29 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 950 959 29.7% 30.4% 39.8% +9.0 8
1984-06-30 IA Akranes L 1-2 964 1047 27.3% 30.2% 42.5% -7.2 7
1984-06-30 @ Breidablik W 2-1 1047 964 42.5% 30.2% 27.3% +7.2 15
1984-07-01 KA Akureyri W 2-0 993 1000 37.5% 30.6% 31.9% +16.2 8
1984-07-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1000 993 31.9% 30.6% 37.5% -16.2 8
1984-07-01 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 983 946 43.6% 30.0% 26.4% +12.2 13
1984-07-01 @ Keflavik IF L 1-3 946 983 26.4% 30.0% 43.6% -12.2 6
1984-07-07 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 957 953 39.1% 30.5% 30.4% -0.5 8
1984-07-07 @ Breidablik D 0-0 953 957 30.4% 30.5% 39.1% +0.5 9
1984-07-07 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 931 934 38.2% 30.6% 31.3% -26.8 8
1984-07-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 934 931 31.3% 30.6% 38.2% +26.8 8
1984-07-08 IA Akranes L 0-1 1009 1055 32.1% 30.6% 37.3% -8.7 8
1984-07-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1055 1009 37.3% 30.6% 32.1% +8.7 17
1984-07-08 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 995 959 43.6% 30.0% 26.4% +7.5 15
1984-07-08 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 959 995 26.4% 30.0% 43.6% -7.5 8
1984-07-08 KA Akureyri D 1-1 950 984 33.7% 30.6% 35.6% +0.1 8
1984-07-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 984 950 35.6% 30.6% 33.7% -0.1 9
1984-07-11 KR Reykjavik D 3-3 956 905 45.6% 29.7% 24.7% -0.6 9
1984-07-11 @ Breidablik D 3-3 905 956 24.7% 29.7% 45.6% +0.6 9
1984-07-11 Keflavik IF W 4-2 984 1003 35.9% 30.6% 33.5% +13.0 11
1984-07-11 @ KA Akureyri L 2-4 1003 984 33.5% 30.6% 35.9% -13.0 15
1984-07-13 IA Akranes L 0-3 950 1063 24.0% 29.6% 46.5% -19.0 8
1984-07-13 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1063 950 46.5% 29.6% 24.0% +19.0 19
1984-07-14 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 952 961 37.2% 30.6% 32.2% +23.8 10
1984-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 961 952 32.2% 30.6% 37.2% -23.8 8
1984-07-15 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 954 1000 32.0% 30.6% 37.4% +8.6 11
1984-07-15 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-3 1000 954 37.4% 30.6% 32.0% -8.6 8
1984-07-21 IA Akranes L 1-2 990 1082 26.3% 30.0% 43.7% -7.0 15
1984-07-21 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1082 990 43.7% 30.0% 26.3% +7.0 21
1984-07-21 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 905 975 28.9% 30.4% 40.7% +0.6 10
1984-07-21 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 975 905 40.7% 30.4% 28.9% -0.6 11
1984-07-21 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 937 975 33.3% 30.6% 36.1% +9.4 10
1984-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 975 937 36.1% 30.6% 33.3% -9.4 11
1984-07-22 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 931 962 34.1% 30.6% 35.2% -9.1 8
1984-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 1-0 962 931 35.2% 30.6% 34.1% +9.0 13
1984-07-22 KA Akureyri W 6-2 947 997 31.5% 30.6% 37.9% +24.6 12
1984-07-22 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-6 997 947 37.9% 30.6% 31.5% -24.6 11
1984-07-23 Breidablik D 0-0 992 955 43.5% 30.0% 26.4% -0.9 9
1984-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 955 992 26.4% 30.0% 43.5% +0.9 10
1984-07-26 Keflavik IF L 1-2 971 983 36.9% 30.6% 32.5% -9.0 13
1984-07-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 983 971 32.5% 30.6% 36.9% +9.0 17
1984-07-27 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 956 922 43.3% 30.1% 26.6% -0.6 11
1984-07-27 @ Breidablik D 2-2 922 956 26.6% 30.1% 43.3% +0.6 9
1984-07-27 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 972 965 39.5% 30.5% 30.0% -23.2 11
1984-07-27 @ KA Akureyri W 4-1 965 972 30.0% 30.5% 39.5% +23.2 13
1984-07-28 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 991 906 49.8% 28.8% 21.4% -11.3 9
1984-07-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 906 991 21.4% 28.8% 49.8% +11.3 12
1984-07-28 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1089 971 53.8% 27.7% 18.6% -11.4 21
1984-07-28 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 971 1089 18.6% 27.7% 53.8% +11.4 14
1984-08-14 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 923 979 30.6% 30.5% 38.9% +27.2 11
1984-08-14 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-3 979 923 38.9% 30.5% 30.6% -27.1 9
1984-08-14 IA Akranes W 4-2 988 1078 26.6% 30.1% 43.3% +15.7 15
1984-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 1078 988 43.3% 30.1% 26.6% -15.7 21
1984-08-15 KA Akureyri W 2-0 917 949 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% +17.5 14
1984-08-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 949 917 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% -17.5 11
1984-08-16 Breidablik W 2-1 992 956 43.5% 30.0% 26.4% +7.1 19
1984-08-16 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 956 992 26.4% 30.0% 43.5% -7.1 11
1984-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 983 962 41.4% 30.3% 28.3% -0.7 15
1984-08-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 962 983 28.3% 30.3% 41.4% +0.7 14
1984-08-18 KA Akureyri W 3-1 1062 932 55.2% 27.2% 17.6% +8.6 23
1984-08-18 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 932 1062 17.6% 27.2% 55.2% -8.6 11
1984-08-19 Keflavik IF W 1-0 952 999 32.0% 30.6% 37.4% +9.6 11
1984-08-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 999 952 37.4% 30.6% 32.0% -9.6 19
1984-08-20 KR Reykjavik W 3-1 950 935 40.7% 30.4% 29.0% +13.1 13
1984-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 935 950 29.0% 30.4% 40.7% -13.1 14
1984-08-20 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 963 1004 32.7% 30.6% 36.7% -8.3 14
1984-08-20 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1004 963 36.7% 30.6% 32.7% +8.3 17
1984-08-21 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-0 949 982 33.8% 30.6% 35.5% +17.5 13
1984-08-21 @ Breidablik L 0-2 982 949 35.5% 30.6% 33.8% -17.5 15
1984-08-31 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 923 955 34.1% 30.6% 35.3% +0.0 12
1984-08-31 @ KA Akureyri D 2-2 955 923 35.3% 30.6% 34.1% -0.0 15
1984-09-01 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 989 963 42.2% 30.2% 27.6% -9.9 19
1984-09-01 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 963 989 27.6% 30.2% 42.2% +9.9 15
1984-09-01 IA Akranes D 0-0 922 1071 20.5% 28.5% 50.9% +1.8 15
1984-09-01 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1071 922 50.9% 28.5% 20.5% -1.8 24
1984-09-02 Breidablik D 1-1 1012 966 44.9% 29.8% 25.3% -1.0 18
1984-09-02 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 966 1012 25.3% 29.8% 44.9% +1.0 14
1984-09-03 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 964 962 39.0% 30.5% 30.6% -16.2 15
1984-09-03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 962 964 30.6% 30.5% 39.0% +16.2 13
1984-09-06 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 978 1011 33.8% 30.6% 35.5% +0.1 14
1984-09-06 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1011 978 35.5% 30.6% 33.8% -0.1 19
1984-09-07 KA Akureyri W 1-0 967 923 44.6% 29.9% 25.5% +7.3 16
1984-09-07 @ Breidablik L 0-1 923 967 25.5% 29.9% 44.6% -7.3 12
1984-09-08 KR Reykjavik L 0-3 979 923 46.1% 29.6% 24.2% -30.9 19
1984-09-08 @ Keflavik IF W 3-0 923 979 24.2% 29.6% 46.1% +30.9 17
1984-09-08 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 973 948 42.0% 30.2% 27.8% -0.7 16
1984-09-08 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 948 973 27.8% 30.2% 42.0% +0.7 16
1984-09-08 IA Akranes W 2-1 955 1069 23.9% 29.5% 46.6% +10.7 17
1984-09-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 1069 955 46.6% 29.5% 23.9% -10.7 24
1984-09-14 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 954 965 37.0% 30.6% 32.4% +8.7 19
1984-09-14 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 965 954 32.4% 30.6% 37.0% -8.7 17
1984-09-15 Breidablik W 3-0 1058 975 49.6% 28.9% 21.5% +17.3 26
1984-09-15 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 975 1058 21.5% 28.9% 49.6% -17.3 16
1984-09-15 Fram Reykjavik L 0-4 916 978 29.9% 30.5% 39.6% -29.4 12
1984-09-15 @ KA Akureyri W 4-0 978 916 39.6% 30.5% 29.9% +29.4 16
1984-09-15 Keflavik IF W 3-0 949 948 38.7% 30.5% 30.8% +23.0 18
1984-09-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 948 949 30.8% 30.5% 38.7% -23.0 19
1984-09-16 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1011 972 43.9% 30.0% 26.1% +7.4 21
1984-09-16 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 972 1011 26.1% 30.0% 43.9% -7.4 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1984-07-28 18.55% Vikingur Reykjavik 971 3 @ IA Akranes 1089 2
2 1984-07-28 21.39% KR Reykjavik 906 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 991 1
3 1984-05-20 23.72% Thor Akureyri 952 2 @ KA Akureyri 1013 1
4 1984-09-08 23.86% @ Throttur Reykjavik 955 2 IA Akranes 1069 1
5 1984-06-22 23.91% Breidablik 952 1 @ KA Akureyri 1011 0
6 1984-09-08 24.24% KR Reykjavik 923 3 @ Keflavik IF 979 0
7 1984-06-16 25.17% Vikingur Reykjavik 956 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1003 1
8 1984-05-26 25.55% Keflavik IF 956 2 @ IA Akranes 1000 1
9 1984-08-14 26.60% @ Valur Reykjavik 988 4 IA Akranes 1078 2
10 1984-06-12 27.08% Thor Akureyri 923 5 @ KR Reykjavik 953 2
11 1984-06-23 27.45% Thor Akureyri 939 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 966 0
12 1984-09-01 27.57% Thor Akureyri 963 2 @ Keflavik IF 989 1
13 1984-06-13 27.64% IA Akranes 997 2 @ KA Akureyri 1023 0
14 1984-06-16 28.06% Valur Reykjavik 940 2 @ Breidablik 962 1
15 1984-06-24 28.54% @ KR Reykjavik 920 1 Keflavik IF 994 0
16 1984-06-29 29.74% Valur Reykjavik 950 3 @ Thor Akureyri 959 2
17 1984-07-27 29.99% Valur Reykjavik 965 4 @ KA Akureyri 972 1
18 1984-09-03 30.55% Fram Reykjavik 962 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 964 1
19 1984-08-14 30.64% @ Thor Akureyri 923 3 Fram Reykjavik 979 0
20 1984-05-31 30.69% @ KR Reykjavik 958 3 Fram Reykjavik 1015 2
21 1984-07-07 31.27% Vikingur Reykjavik 934 3 @ KR Reykjavik 931 0
22 1984-06-08 31.38% Keflavik IF 975 1 @ Breidablik 972 0
23 1984-07-22 31.51% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 947 6 KA Akureyri 997 2
24 1984-08-19 31.97% @ Fram Reykjavik 952 1 Keflavik IF 999 0
25 1984-07-15 31.98% @ Throttur Reykjavik 954 3 Fram Reykjavik 1000 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1984-09-08 30.93 KR Reykjavik 3 923 24.24% @ Keflavik IF 0 979 46.13% 29.63%
2 1984-09-15 29.43 Fram Reykjavik 4 978 39.64% @ KA Akureyri 0 916 29.90% 30.46%
3 1984-08-14 27.15 @ Thor Akureyri 3 923 30.64% Fram Reykjavik 0 979 38.85% 30.51%
4 1984-07-07 26.81 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 934 31.27% @ KR Reykjavik 0 931 38.18% 30.55%
5 1984-07-22 24.64 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 6 947 31.51% KA Akureyri 2 997 37.92% 30.56%
6 1984-05-27 23.95 @ Throttur Reykjavik 3 950 36.84% Thor Akureyri 0 963 32.55% 30.61%
7 1984-07-14 23.75 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 952 37.23% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 961 32.17% 30.59%
8 1984-07-27 23.19 Valur Reykjavik 4 965 29.99% @ KA Akureyri 1 972 39.54% 30.47%
9 1984-09-15 23.03 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 949 38.66% Keflavik IF 0 948 30.82% 30.52%
10 1984-06-12 21.31 Thor Akureyri 5 923 27.08% @ KR Reykjavik 2 953 42.78% 30.14%
11 1984-06-23 19.94 Thor Akureyri 2 939 27.45% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 966 42.35% 30.20%
12 1984-06-13 19.86 IA Akranes 2 997 27.64% @ KA Akureyri 0 1023 42.14% 30.22%
13 1984-07-13 18.97 IA Akranes 3 1063 46.46% @ Thor Akureyri 0 950 23.97% 29.56%
14 1984-08-21 17.53 @ Breidablik 2 949 33.84% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 982 35.53% 30.64%
15 1984-08-15 17.46 @ KR Reykjavik 2 917 34.06% KA Akureyri 0 949 35.31% 30.64%
16 1984-09-15 17.30 @ IA Akranes 3 1058 49.64% Breidablik 0 975 21.49% 28.87%
17 1984-07-01 16.25 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 993 37.51% KA Akureyri 0 1000 31.91% 30.58%
18 1984-09-03 16.22 Fram Reykjavik 3 962 30.55% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1 964 38.95% 30.51%
19 1984-08-14 15.72 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 988 26.60% IA Akranes 2 1078 43.33% 30.07%
20 1984-06-08 13.84 @ KA Akureyri 2 1009 44.31% KR Reykjavik 0 967 25.76% 29.93%
21 1984-08-20 13.12 @ Thor Akureyri 3 950 40.66% KR Reykjavik 1 935 28.97% 30.37%
22 1984-07-11 13.03 @ KA Akureyri 4 984 35.87% Keflavik IF 2 1003 33.50% 30.63%
23 1984-06-23 12.61 @ IA Akranes 2 1035 47.72% Throttur Reykjavik 0 966 22.97% 29.31%
24 1984-07-01 12.21 @ Keflavik IF 3 983 43.61% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 946 26.36% 30.03%
25 1984-06-16 11.85 @ IA Akranes 2 1017 49.81% KR Reykjavik 0 932 21.36% 28.83%