1983 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

24 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1977.0

Relegated

IBI Isafjordur

13 pts

IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

4.39 points above expected

24 points · 19.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IBI Isafjordur

4.70 points below expected

13 points · 17.70 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IA Akranes Champion	18	10	4	4	24	29	11	+18	19.61	+4.39
2	KR Reykjavik	18	5	10	3	20	18	19	-1	18.28	+1.72
3	Breidablik	18	6	7	5	19	24	18	+6	18.32	+0.68
4	Thor Akureyri	18	5	8	5	18	21	19	+2	16.66	+1.34
5	Valur Reykjavik	18	7	4	7	18	29	31	-2	17.63	+0.37
6	Throttur Reykjavik	18	6	6	6	18	24	31	-7	17.28	+0.72
7	Keflavik IF	18	8	1	9	17	24	27	-3	17.50	-0.50
8	Vikingur Reykjavik	18	4	9	5	17	20	20	0	18.27	-1.27
9	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Relegated	18	5	6	7	16	25	26	-1	18.75	-2.75
10	IBI Isafjordur Relegated	18	2	9	7	13	16	28	-12	17.70	-4.70

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
IA Akranes	976	24	19.61	+4.39	94.6%	8	15	18	20	22	25	34
Breidablik	939	19	18.32	+0.68	65.0%	5	13	16	18	20	23	30
Vikingur Reykjavik	924	17	18.27	-1.27	39.9%	7	13	16	18	20	23	29
KR Reykjavik	916	20	18.28	+1.72	75.9%	7	13	16	18	20	24	30
Keflavik IF	909	17	17.50	-0.50	50.4%	7	12	15	17	20	23	28
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	908	16	18.75	-2.75	23.8%	7	14	17	19	21	24	30
Valur Reykjavik	907	18	17.63	+0.37	60.5%	6	12	15	18	20	23	29
Throttur Reykjavik	905	18	17.28	+0.72	64.8%	6	12	15	17	19	22	28
Thor Akureyri	898	18	16.66	+1.34	71.8%	5	12	15	17	19	22	28
IBI Isafjordur	877	13	17.70	-4.70	9.3%	5	12	16	18	20	23	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRE	IA	II	IV	KR	KI	TA	TR	VR	VR
Breidablik	—	1-0-1 2.48	0-2-0 2.71	2-0-0 2.56	0-0-2 2.67	2-0-0 2.71	1-1-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.62
IA Akranes	1-0-1 2.78	—	1-0-1 2.94	0-1-1 2.86	0-2-0 2.85	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 3.02	2-0-0 2.82	2-0-0 2.73
IBI Isafjordur	0-2-0 2.54	1-0-1 2.33	—	0-1-1 2.46	0-2-0 2.53	0-0-2 2.66	0-2-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.58
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0-0-2 2.69	1-1-0 2.42	1-1-0 2.79	—	0-2-0 2.70	0-0-2 2.84	1-1-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.78	0-1-1 2.73
KR Reykjavik	2-0-0 2.60	0-2-0 2.41	0-2-0 2.73	0-2-0 2.55	—	0-1-1 2.80	0-1-1 2.86	0-2-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.79	2-0-0 2.58
Keflavik IF	0-0-2 2.56	0-0-2 2.25	2-0-0 2.61	2-0-0 2.42	1-1-0 2.46	—	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.59
Thor Akureyri	0-1-1 2.36	1-0-1 2.24	0-2-0 2.47	0-1-1 2.28	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-1 2.45	—	2-0-0 2.47	0-1-1 2.58	0-2-0 2.38
Throttur Reykjavik	1-1-0 2.43	0-1-1 2.25	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 2.41	0-2-0 2.55	1-0-1 2.56	0-0-2 2.79	—	2-0-0 2.61	0-2-0 2.46
Valur Reykjavik	1-1-0 2.56	0-0-2 2.45	1-1-0 2.62	1-0-1 2.47	1-0-1 2.47	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 2.68	0-0-2 2.65	—	1-1-0 2.50
Vikingur Reykjavik	0-2-0 2.64	0-0-2 2.53	1-1-0 2.68	1-1-0 2.54	0-0-2 2.67	2-0-0 2.67	0-2-0 2.88	0-2-0 2.80	0-1-1 2.76	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.30	+3.6
Allowed	0.49	-3.0
Differential	0.76	+3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.22%	5.00%	5.56%	4.44%	1.67%	0.56%	29.44%
1	5.00%	14.44%	7.78%	2.78%	1.11%	—	31.11%
2	5.56%	7.78%	8.89%	3.33%	—	—	25.56%
3	4.44%	2.78%	3.33%	—	—	—	10.56%
4	1.67%	1.11%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	0.56%	—	—	—	—	—	0.56%
Total	29.44%	31.11%	25.56%	10.56%	2.78%	0.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.28	+0.00
SD	1.11	1.11	1.68
CV	0.87	0.87	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.00	+0.33
SD	0.97	1.03	1.28
CV	0.73	1.03	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	55.56%	27.78%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	0.61	+1.00
SD	1.50	0.78	1.88
CV	0.93	1.27	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.56	-0.67
SD	0.76	1.25	1.50
CV	0.85	0.80	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.44	-0.06
SD	1.24	1.10	2.04
CV	0.90	0.76	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	38.89%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.06	-0.06
SD	0.91	1.06	1.06
CV	0.91	1.00	—
Max	3	4	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.50	-0.17
SD	1.03	1.04	1.79
CV	0.77	0.70	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.06	+0.11
SD	1.10	1.06	1.68
CV	0.94	1.00	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.72	-0.39
SD	1.33	1.41	2.03
CV	1.00	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.72	-0.11
SD	1.14	1.13	1.97
CV	0.71	0.65	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	44.44%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.11	+0.00
SD	1.02	0.90	1.03
CV	0.92	0.81	—
Max	3	2	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	IA Akranes	24	19.61	+4.39
2	KR Reykjavik	20	18.28	+1.72
3	Thor Akureyri	18	16.66	+1.34
4	Throttur Reykjavik	18	17.28	+0.72
5	Breidablik	19	18.32	+0.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	IBI Isafjordur	13	17.70	-4.70
2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	16	18.75	-2.75
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	17	18.27	-1.27
4	Keflavik IF	17	17.50	-0.50
5	Valur Reykjavik	18	17.63	+0.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Keflavik IF	4	Jul 2 – Jul 26	1 in 595
2	Valur Reykjavik	3	Aug 23 – Sep 10	1 in 31
3	Thor Akureyri	2	Jul 9 – Jul 15	1 in 22
4	IA Akranes	3	Jul 15 – Aug 6	1 in 21
5	Throttur Reykjavik	2	Aug 4 – Aug 13	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Keflavik IF	4	Aug 4 – Aug 24	1 in 105
2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	Jul 16 – Aug 4	1 in 43
3	Valur Reykjavik	3	May 31 – Jun 10	1 in 25
4	Breidablik	2	Jul 23 – Aug 2	1 in 13
5	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	May 23 – Jun 1	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	7	Jun 7 – Jul 9	1 in 18
2	IA Akranes	8	Jul 15 – Sep 11	1 in 13
3	Keflavik IF	5	Jun 25 – Jul 26	1 in 11
4	KR Reykjavik	5	May 18 – Jun 12	1 in 9
5	IBI Isafjordur	4	Jun 12 – Jun 26	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	IBI Isafjordur	12	Jun 21 – Sep 10	1 in 102
2	Vikingur Reykjavik	8	Jun 15 – Aug 6	1 in 27
3	KR Reykjavik	7	Jun 12 – Jul 15	1 in 15
4	Breidablik	5	Jul 9 – Aug 13	1 in 10
5	Valur Reykjavik	5	Jun 21 – Jul 17	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
IA Akranes	24.20%	16.22%	13.56%	10.78%	9.67%	7.65%	6.05%	5.11%	4.17%	2.59%
KR Reykjavik	10.03%	11.16%	10.82%	10.41%	10.43%	10.70%	9.91%	9.53%	9.23%	7.78%
Breidablik	11.73%	11.13%	11.74%	11.37%	10.97%	10.59%	9.69%	8.90%	7.67%	6.21%
Thor Akureyri	4.19%	6.35%	7.58%	8.39%	8.81%	10.14%	11.43%	12.20%	13.64%	17.27%
Valur Reykjavik	7.20%	8.92%	9.48%	9.65%	9.59%	10.08%	10.86%	11.33%	11.20%	11.69%
Throttur Reykjavik	5.43%	7.38%	7.53%	8.94%	9.50%	10.07%	10.78%	12.18%	13.58%	14.61%
Keflavik IF	6.47%	7.83%	8.64%	9.40%	10.06%	10.55%	11.39%	11.69%	11.67%	12.30%
Vikingur Reykjavik	10.30%	11.23%	11.19%	10.61%	10.49%	10.34%	9.54%	9.59%	8.75%	7.96%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	13.89%	12.33%	11.13%	11.41%	10.25%	9.63%	8.89%	8.08%	7.97%	6.42%
IBI Isafjordur	6.56%	7.45%	8.33%	9.04%	10.23%	10.25%	11.46%	11.39%	12.12%	13.17%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+20.00%

Clear Edge

42.22%35.56%22.22%

Elo Value

Home Edge

153 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

070.44400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.51 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.7

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

IA Akranes, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.51 * Some Luck: 2.51 to 3.76 * Lucky: 3.76 to 5.01 * Wild Swing: 5.01 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.27 * Close: 2.27 to 3.4 * Off: 3.4 to 4.54 * Way Off: 4.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.41 * A Surprise: 1.41 to 2.25 * Several Surprises: 2.25 to 3.1 * Many Surprises: 3.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.38 points

As Expected

03.138

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.80

02.846

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.61%

IA Akranes

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

9.31%

IBI Isafjordur

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

2 of 2

A Surprise

01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.08

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.67

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

52%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

64%

Even

50%62%100%

Close Games

Expected

68%

Very Frequent

0%63%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Frequent

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.58

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.09

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalky

0%18%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.25

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

-0.50

Overconfident

01.002.94836

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.145

Well Within Noise

00.1470.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
IA Akranes	93.24%	6.76%
Breidablik	86.12%	13.88%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	85.61%	14.39%
Vikingur Reykjavik	83.29%	16.71%
KR Reykjavik	82.99%	17.01%
Valur Reykjavik	77.11%	22.89%
Keflavik IF	76.03%	23.97%
IBI Isafjordur	74.71%	25.29%
Throttur Reykjavik	71.81%	28.19%
Thor Akureyri	69.09%	30.91%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1983-05-18	KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	915	917	45.2%	37.0%	17.8%	-0.5	1
1983-05-18	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	917	915	17.8%	37.0%	45.2%	+0.5	1
1983-05-19	IBI Isafjordur	W 4-0	927	917	46.5%	36.8%	16.7%	+10.8	2
1983-05-19	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-4	917	927	16.7%	36.8%	46.5%	-10.8	0
1983-05-19	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	915	920	44.8%	37.1%	18.1%	-5.6	0
1983-05-19	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	920	915	18.1%	37.1%	44.8%	+5.6	2
1983-05-19	IA Akranes	L 0-1	879	928	39.6%	37.6%	22.8%	-5.4	0
1983-05-19	@ Thor Akureyri	W 1-0	928	879	22.8%	37.6%	39.6%	+5.4	2
1983-05-19	Breidablik	D 0-0	927	915	46.7%	36.8%	16.5%	-0.9	1
1983-05-19	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	915	927	16.5%	36.8%	46.7%	+0.9	1
1983-05-23	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	933	926	46.1%	36.9%	17.0%	+5.8	4
1983-05-23	@ IA Akranes	L 0-2	926	933	17.0%	36.9%	46.1%	-5.8	1
1983-05-23	Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-0	906	915	44.4%	37.2%	18.4%	+6.2	2
1983-05-23	@ IBI Isafjordur	L 0-2	915	906	18.4%	37.2%	44.4%	-6.2	1
1983-05-23	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-1	909	938	42.1%	37.5%	20.5%	+5.7	2
1983-05-23	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	938	909	20.5%	37.5%	42.1%	-5.7	2
1983-05-23	Breidablik	W 2-1	925	916	46.4%	36.8%	16.8%	+2.9	4
1983-05-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	916	925	16.8%	36.8%	46.4%	-2.9	1
1983-05-24	Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	917	873	50.0%	36.0%	14.0%	-1.0	2
1983-05-24	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	873	917	14.0%	36.0%	50.0%	+1.0	1
1983-05-31	IA Akranes	W 1-0	913	939	42.4%	37.4%	20.2%	+3.5	3
1983-05-31	@ Breidablik	L 0-1	939	913	20.2%	37.4%	42.4%	-3.5	4
1983-05-31	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-0	932	928	45.8%	37.0%	17.2%	+8.5	4
1983-05-31	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	928	932	17.2%	37.0%	45.8%	-8.5	4
1983-06-01	IBI Isafjordur	D 1-1	874	912	41.1%	37.5%	21.4%	-0.5	2
1983-06-01	@ Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	912	874	21.4%	37.5%	41.1%	+0.5	3
1983-06-01	KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	921	916	45.8%	36.9%	17.2%	-5.7	1
1983-06-01	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	916	921	17.2%	36.9%	45.8%	+5.8	4
1983-06-02	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	909	915	44.7%	37.1%	18.2%	+3.0	3
1983-06-02	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-2	915	909	18.2%	37.1%	44.7%	-3.1	2
1983-06-06	Breidablik	W 1-0	922	916	46.0%	36.9%	17.1%	+3.1	6
1983-06-06	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	916	922	17.1%	36.9%	46.0%	-3.1	3
1983-06-07	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	941	912	48.5%	36.4%	15.1%	+7.7	6
1983-06-07	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	912	941	15.1%	36.4%	48.5%	-7.7	3
1983-06-07	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 2-3	912	915	45.1%	37.1%	17.8%	-5.4	3
1983-06-07	@ IBI Isafjordur	W 3-2	915	912	17.8%	37.1%	45.1%	+5.4	3
1983-06-07	Thor Akureyri	W 2-1	912	874	49.3%	36.2%	14.5%	+2.6	4
1983-06-07	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	874	912	14.5%	36.2%	49.3%	-2.6	2
1983-06-07	IA Akranes	L 0-3	920	936	43.6%	37.3%	19.1%	-16.0	4
1983-06-07	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 3-0	936	920	19.1%	37.3%	43.6%	+16.0	6
1983-06-10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	871	949	36.0%	37.7%	26.2%	-0.2	3
1983-06-10	@ Thor Akureyri	D 1-1	949	871	26.2%	37.7%	36.0%	+0.2	7
1983-06-10	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-2	904	904	45.4%	37.0%	17.6%	+2.8	5
1983-06-10	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 2-3	904	904	17.6%	37.0%	45.4%	-2.8	4
1983-06-12	IBI Isafjordur	D 1-1	913	907	46.1%	36.9%	17.0%	-0.8	4
1983-06-12	@ Breidablik	D 1-1	907	913	17.0%	36.9%	46.1%	+0.8	4
1983-06-12	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	952	925	48.2%	36.5%	15.3%	-0.9	7
1983-06-12	@ IA Akranes	D 1-1	925	952	15.3%	36.5%	48.2%	+0.9	7
1983-06-12	Keflavik IF	W 3-1	920	914	46.0%	36.9%	17.1%	+5.0	5
1983-06-12	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-3	914	920	17.1%	36.9%	46.0%	-5.0	4
1983-06-14	Thor Akureyri	L 1-2	907	871	49.1%	36.2%	14.6%	-6.1	5
1983-06-14	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	871	907	14.6%	36.2%	49.1%	+6.1	5
1983-06-15	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	949	925	47.9%	36.5%	15.6%	-0.9	8
1983-06-15	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	925	949	15.6%	36.5%	47.9%	+0.9	6
1983-06-15	IA Akranes	W 1-0	908	951	40.4%	37.6%	22.0%	+3.7	6
1983-06-15	@ IBI Isafjordur	L 0-1	951	908	22.0%	37.6%	40.4%	-3.7	7
1983-06-15	Breidablik	L 0-2	909	913	45.0%	37.1%	17.9%	-11.3	4
1983-06-15	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-0	913	909	17.9%	37.1%	45.0%	+11.3	6
1983-06-18	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	924	948	42.7%	37.4%	20.0%	+3.4	8
1983-06-18	@ Breidablik	L 0-1	948	924	20.0%	37.4%	42.7%	-3.4	8
1983-06-18	Keflavik IF	W 4-0	947	898	50.5%	35.9%	13.7%	+9.3	9
1983-06-18	@ IA Akranes	L 0-4	898	947	13.7%	35.9%	50.5%	-9.3	4
1983-06-18	KR Reykjavik	W 4-1	901	926	42.5%	37.4%	20.1%	+8.0	6
1983-06-18	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-4	926	901	20.1%	37.4%	42.5%	-8.0	7
1983-06-19	Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	926	901	48.1%	36.5%	15.4%	-1.0	7
1983-06-19	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	901	926	15.4%	36.5%	48.1%	+1.0	6
1983-06-21	IBI Isafjordur	D 0-0	918	911	46.1%	36.9%	17.0%	-0.9	8
1983-06-21	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	911	918	17.0%	36.9%	46.1%	+0.9	7
1983-06-21	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	877	909	41.7%	37.5%	20.8%	-0.4	6
1983-06-21	@ Thor Akureyri	D 2-2	909	877	20.8%	37.5%	41.7%	+0.4	7
1983-06-23	Breidablik	D 1-1	902	927	42.5%	37.4%	20.1%	-0.6	7
1983-06-23	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	927	902	20.1%	37.4%	42.5%	+0.6	9
1983-06-24	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	877	925	39.7%	37.6%	22.7%	-0.5	7
1983-06-24	@ Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	925	877	22.7%	37.6%	39.7%	+0.5	8
1983-06-25	IA Akranes	W 2-1	944	956	44.0%	37.2%	18.7%	+3.1	10
1983-06-25	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-2	956	944	18.7%	37.2%	44.0%	-3.1	9
1983-06-25	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	889	917	42.1%	37.4%	20.4%	-0.6	5
1983-06-25	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	917	889	20.4%	37.4%	42.1%	+0.6	9
1983-06-26	IBI Isafjordur	D 1-1	909	912	45.0%	37.1%	17.9%	-0.7	8
1983-06-26	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	912	909	17.9%	37.1%	45.0%	+0.7	8
1983-07-02	Thor Akureyri	W 3-0	928	876	50.7%	35.8%	13.5%	+7.0	11
1983-07-02	@ Breidablik	L 0-3	876	928	13.5%	35.8%	50.7%	-7.0	7
1983-07-02	Throttur Reykjavik	W 5-0	953	901	50.7%	35.8%	13.5%	+11.3	11
1983-07-02	@ IA Akranes	L 0-5	901	953	13.5%	35.8%	50.7%	-11.3	7
1983-07-02	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	913	888	48.0%	36.5%	15.5%	-6.0	8
1983-07-02	@ IBI Isafjordur	W 2-1	888	913	15.5%	36.5%	48.0%	+6.0	7
1983-07-02	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	926	909	47.2%	36.7%	16.1%	-0.8	9
1983-07-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	909	926	16.1%	36.7%	47.2%	+0.9	9
1983-07-03	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	918	948	42.0%	37.5%	20.5%	-0.4	10
1983-07-03	@ KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	948	918	20.5%	37.5%	42.0%	+0.4	11
1983-07-09	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	935	925	46.5%	36.8%	16.7%	-0.9	12
1983-07-09	@ Breidablik	D 0-0	925	935	16.7%	36.8%	46.5%	+0.9	10
1983-07-09	Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	965	869	54.7%	34.4%	10.9%	-13.3	11
1983-07-09	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	869	965	10.9%	34.4%	54.7%	+13.3	9
1983-07-09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	907	948	40.7%	37.6%	21.8%	-0.4	9
1983-07-09	@ IBI Isafjordur	D 2-2	948	907	21.8%	37.6%	40.7%	+0.4	12
1983-07-11	Keflavik IF	L 0-2	909	894	47.0%	36.7%	16.2%	-11.7	9
1983-07-11	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 2-0	894	909	16.2%	36.7%	47.0%	+11.7	9
1983-07-12	Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	917	890	48.3%	36.4%	15.3%	-1.0	11
1983-07-12	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	890	917	15.3%	36.4%	48.3%	+1.0	8
1983-07-15	KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	882	916	41.5%	37.5%	21.0%	+6.7	11
1983-07-15	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	916	882	21.0%	37.5%	41.5%	-6.7	11
1983-07-15	IA Akranes	L 1-2	926	951	42.5%	37.4%	20.1%	-5.4	10
1983-07-15	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	951	926	20.1%	37.4%	42.5%	+5.4	13
1983-07-16	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	948	906	49.8%	36.0%	14.1%	-6.2	12
1983-07-16	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-1	906	948	14.1%	36.0%	49.8%	+6.2	11
1983-07-16	IBI Isafjordur	W 1-0	891	907	43.6%	37.3%	19.1%	+3.4	10
1983-07-16	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	907	891	19.1%	37.3%	43.6%	-3.4	9
1983-07-17	Valur Reykjavik	D 2-2	934	898	49.2%	36.2%	14.6%	-0.7	13
1983-07-17	@ Breidablik	D 2-2	898	934	14.6%	36.2%	49.2%	+0.7	10
1983-07-23	Breidablik	W 3-2	957	933	47.9%	36.5%	15.6%	+2.6	15
1983-07-23	@ IA Akranes	L 2-3	933	957	15.6%	36.5%	47.9%	-2.6	13
1983-07-25	Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	903	889	46.9%	36.7%	16.4%	-0.9	10
1983-07-25	@ IBI Isafjordur	D 0-0	889	903	16.4%	36.7%	46.9%	+0.9	12
1983-07-25	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-0	898	942	40.3%	37.6%	22.1%	+10.1	12
1983-07-25	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	942	898	22.1%	37.6%	40.3%	-10.1	12
1983-07-26	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-2	912	894	47.3%	36.7%	16.1%	+2.6	13
1983-07-26	@ Keflavik IF	L 2-3	894	912	16.1%	36.7%	47.3%	-2.6	10
1983-07-26	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	910	920	44.2%	37.2%	18.6%	+3.1	13
1983-07-26	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-2	920	910	18.6%	37.2%	44.2%	-3.1	10
1983-08-02	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	931	913	47.3%	36.7%	16.1%	-6.3	13
1983-08-02	@ Breidablik	W 1-0	913	931	16.1%	36.7%	47.3%	+6.3	15
1983-08-04	Keflavik IF	W 2-0	890	915	42.6%	37.4%	20.0%	+6.5	14
1983-08-04	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-2	915	890	20.0%	37.4%	42.6%	-6.5	13
1983-08-04	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-1	891	932	40.7%	37.6%	21.7%	+6.0	12
1983-08-04	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-3	932	891	21.7%	37.6%	40.7%	-6.0	12
1983-08-06	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-0	959	909	50.6%	35.8%	13.6%	+4.9	17
1983-08-06	@ IA Akranes	L 0-2	909	959	13.6%	35.8%	50.6%	-4.9	12
1983-08-06	IBI Isafjordur	D 2-2	917	902	47.0%	36.7%	16.3%	-0.6	11
1983-08-06	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	902	917	16.3%	36.7%	47.0%	+0.6	11
1983-08-13	Thor Akureyri	W 3-1	926	897	48.5%	36.4%	15.1%	+4.6	14
1983-08-13	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-3	897	926	15.1%	36.4%	48.5%	-4.6	14
1983-08-13	Breidablik	D 1-1	903	924	43.0%	37.4%	19.7%	-0.6	12
1983-08-13	@ IBI Isafjordur	D 1-1	924	903	19.7%	37.4%	43.0%	+0.6	14
1983-08-13	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	908	917	44.4%	37.2%	18.4%	-5.6	13
1983-08-13	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-1	917	908	18.4%	37.2%	44.4%	+5.6	13
1983-08-13	Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-4	904	897	46.1%	36.9%	17.1%	-14.1	12
1983-08-13	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 4-1	897	904	17.1%	36.9%	46.1%	+14.1	14
1983-08-14	IA Akranes	D 0-0	919	964	40.1%	37.6%	22.3%	-0.5	16
1983-08-14	@ KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	964	919	22.3%	37.6%	40.1%	+0.5	18
1983-08-19	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-2	919	890	48.4%	36.4%	15.2%	+2.5	18
1983-08-19	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	890	919	15.2%	36.4%	48.4%	-2.5	12
1983-08-19	Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-0	892	912	43.2%	37.3%	19.5%	+12.1	16
1983-08-19	@ Thor Akureyri	L 0-4	912	892	19.5%	37.3%	43.2%	-12.1	14
1983-08-20	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	925	902	47.8%	36.6%	15.7%	+2.7	16
1983-08-20	@ Breidablik	L 1-2	902	925	15.7%	36.6%	47.8%	-2.7	13
1983-08-20	IBI Isafjordur	W 3-0	965	902	51.7%	35.5%	12.8%	+6.7	20
1983-08-20	@ IA Akranes	L 0-3	902	965	12.8%	35.5%	51.7%	-6.7	12
1983-08-21	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	922	931	44.4%	37.2%	18.4%	+6.1	15
1983-08-21	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-2	931	922	18.4%	37.2%	44.4%	-6.1	14
1983-08-23	Thor Akureyri	W 2-0	887	904	43.5%	37.3%	19.2%	+6.3	14
1983-08-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	904	887	19.2%	37.3%	43.5%	-6.3	16
1983-08-24	Breidablik	L 0-3	925	928	45.0%	37.1%	17.9%	-16.4	14
1983-08-24	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-0	928	925	17.9%	37.1%	45.0%	+16.4	18
1983-08-24	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	896	921	42.5%	37.4%	20.1%	-0.6	13
1983-08-24	@ IBI Isafjordur	D 1-1	921	896	20.1%	37.4%	42.5%	+0.6	19
1983-08-24	IA Akranes	L 0-1	900	971	36.8%	37.7%	25.5%	-5.2	13
1983-08-24	@ Keflavik IF	W 1-0	971	900	25.5%	37.7%	36.8%	+5.1	22
1983-08-24	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 2-2	899	928	42.1%	37.4%	20.5%	-0.4	15
1983-08-24	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	928	899	20.5%	37.4%	42.1%	+0.4	16
1983-08-31	Keflavik IF	L 0-1	922	895	48.2%	36.4%	15.3%	-6.4	19
1983-08-31	@ KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	895	922	15.3%	36.4%	48.2%	+6.4	15
1983-09-02	Throttur Reykjavik	L 2-3	944	899	50.0%	36.0%	14.0%	-5.9	18
1983-09-02	@ Breidablik	W 3-2	899	944	14.0%	36.0%	50.0%	+5.9	17
1983-09-03	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	977	908	52.3%	35.3%	12.4%	-1.1	23
1983-09-03	@ IA Akranes	D 1-1	908	977	12.4%	35.3%	52.3%	+1.1	15
1983-09-03	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	895	893	45.6%	37.0%	17.4%	-9.9	13
1983-09-03	@ IBI Isafjordur	W 3-1	893	895	17.4%	37.0%	45.6%	+9.9	16
1983-09-03	Thor Akureyri	D 0-0	929	898	48.6%	36.4%	15.0%	-1.0	17
1983-09-03	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	898	929	15.0%	36.4%	48.6%	+1.0	17
1983-09-10	KR Reykjavik	D 0-0	909	915	44.7%	37.1%	18.2%	-0.8	16
1983-09-10	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	915	909	18.2%	37.1%	44.7%	+0.8	20
1983-09-10	IBI Isafjordur	W 3-0	901	885	47.1%	36.7%	16.2%	+8.1	17
1983-09-10	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-3	885	901	16.2%	36.7%	47.1%	-8.1	13
1983-09-10	Breidablik	D 2-2	899	938	40.8%	37.5%	21.6%	-0.4	18
1983-09-10	@ Thor Akureyri	D 2-2	938	899	21.6%	37.5%	40.8%	+0.4	19
1983-09-10	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	903	928	42.6%	37.4%	20.0%	+3.2	18
1983-09-10	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	928	903	20.0%	37.4%	42.6%	-3.3	17
1983-09-11	IA Akranes	D 0-0	905	975	37.0%	37.7%	25.4%	-0.3	18
1983-09-11	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	975	905	25.4%	37.7%	37.0%	+0.3	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1983-07-09	10.92%	Thor Akureyri	869	2	@ IA Akranes	965	0
2	1983-09-02	13.96%	Throttur Reykjavik	899	3	@ Breidablik	944	2
3	1983-07-16	14.15%	Keflavik IF	906	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	948	1
4	1983-06-14	14.64%	Thor Akureyri	871	2	@ Throttur Reykjavik	907	1
5	1983-08-31	15.31%	Keflavik IF	895	1	@ KR Reykjavik	922	0
6	1983-07-02	15.47%	Keflavik IF	888	2	@ IBI Isafjordur	913	1
7	1983-08-02	16.05%	KR Reykjavik	913	1	@ Breidablik	931	0
8	1983-07-11	16.25%	Keflavik IF	894	2	@ Valur Reykjavik	909	0
9	1983-08-13	17.05%	Throttur Reykjavik	897	4	@ Valur Reykjavik	904	1
10	1983-06-01	17.22%	KR Reykjavik	916	2	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	921	1
11	1983-09-03	17.45%	Valur Reykjavik	893	3	@ IBI Isafjordur	895	1
12	1983-06-07	17.84%	Vikingur Reykjavik	915	3	@ IBI Isafjordur	912	2
13	1983-08-24	17.90%	Breidablik	928	3	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	925	0
14	1983-06-15	17.91%	Breidablik	913	2	@ Keflavik IF	909	0
15	1983-05-19	18.08%	Valur Reykjavik	920	2	@ Keflavik IF	915	1
16	1983-08-13	18.41%	Vikingur Reykjavik	917	2	@ Keflavik IF	908	1
17	1983-06-07	19.13%	IA Akranes	936	3	@ Valur Reykjavik	920	0
18	1983-07-15	20.11%	IA Akranes	951	2	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	926	1
19	1983-05-19	22.75%	IA Akranes	928	1	@ Thor Akureyri	879	0
20	1983-08-24	25.50%	IA Akranes	971	1	@ Keflavik IF	900	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1983-08-24	16.44	Breidablik	3	928	17.90%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	925	45.02%	37.08%
2	1983-06-07	16.02	IA Akranes	3	936	19.13%	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	920	43.59%	37.28%
3	1983-08-13	14.13	Throttur Reykjavik	4	897	17.05%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	904	46.05%	36.90%
4	1983-07-09	13.34	Thor Akureyri	2	869	10.92%	@ IA Akranes	0	965	54.74%	34.35%
5	1983-08-19	12.14	@ Thor Akureyri	4	892	43.18%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	912	19.49%	37.33%
6	1983-07-11	11.74	Keflavik IF	2	894	16.25%	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	909	47.03%	36.72%
7	1983-06-15	11.32	Breidablik	2	913	17.91%	@ Keflavik IF	0	909	45.01%	37.08%
8	1983-07-02	11.30	@ IA Akranes	5	953	50.75%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	901	13.47%	35.78%
9	1983-05-19	10.83	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	4	927	46.53%	IBI Isafjordur	0	917	16.65%	36.81%
10	1983-07-25	10.12	@ Valur Reykjavik	3	898	40.31%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	942	22.10%	37.59%
11	1983-09-03	9.91	Valur Reykjavik	3	893	17.45%	@ IBI Isafjordur	1	895	45.56%	36.99%
12	1983-06-18	9.28	@ IA Akranes	4	947	50.46%	Keflavik IF	0	898	13.68%	35.87%
13	1983-05-31	8.51	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	932	45.82%	Valur Reykjavik	0	928	17.24%	36.95%
14	1983-09-10	8.13	@ Keflavik IF	3	901	47.06%	IBI Isafjordur	0	885	16.23%	36.71%
15	1983-06-18	8.00	@ Valur Reykjavik	4	901	42.52%	KR Reykjavik	1	926	20.07%	37.40%
16	1983-06-07	7.71	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	941	48.46%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	912	15.14%	36.40%
17	1983-07-02	7.04	@ Breidablik	3	928	50.69%	Thor Akureyri	0	876	13.51%	35.80%
18	1983-07-15	6.73	@ Thor Akureyri	2	882	41.49%	KR Reykjavik	0	916	21.01%	37.50%
19	1983-08-20	6.73	@ IA Akranes	3	965	51.69%	IBI Isafjordur	0	902	12.83%	35.48%
20	1983-08-04	6.51	@ Thor Akureyri	2	890	42.61%	Keflavik IF	0	915	19.99%	37.39%
21	1983-08-31	6.36	Keflavik IF	1	895	15.31%	@ KR Reykjavik	0	922	48.24%	36.45%
22	1983-08-23	6.33	@ Valur Reykjavik	2	887	43.46%	Thor Akureyri	0	904	19.24%	37.29%
23	1983-08-02	6.26	KR Reykjavik	1	913	16.05%	@ Breidablik	0	931	47.29%	36.66%
24	1983-07-16	6.16	Keflavik IF	2	906	14.15%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1	948	49.80%	36.05%
25	1983-05-23	6.15	@ IBI Isafjordur	2	906	44.38%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	915	18.45%	37.17%