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1982 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Vikingur Reykjavik

23 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1981.0

Relegated

KA Akureyri

14 pts

Fram Reykjavik · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.86 points above expected

23 points · 19.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KA Akureyri

3.78 points below expected

14 points · 17.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik Champion 18 7 9 2 23 25 17 +8 19.14 +3.86
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 4 5 22 23 16 +7 18.96 +3.04
3 KR Reykjavik 18 5 11 2 21 14 12 +2 17.27 +3.73
4 IA Akranes 18 6 6 6 18 22 20 +2 18.78 -0.78
5 IBI Isafjordur 18 6 5 7 17 30 29 +1 16.56 +0.44
6 Valur Reykjavik 18 6 5 7 17 18 21 -3 17.78 -0.78
7 Breidablik 18 6 5 7 17 18 22 -4 18.00 -1.00
8 Keflavik IF 18 5 6 7 16 14 19 -5 17.36 -1.36
9 Fram Reykjavik Relegated 18 4 7 7 15 17 23 -6 18.36 -3.36
10 KA Akureyri Relegated 18 4 6 8 14 20 22 -2 17.78 -3.78

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vikingur Reykjavik 1076 23 19.14 +3.86 90.8% 8 14 17 19 21 24 30
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1070 22 18.96 +3.04 86.6% 6 14 17 19 21 24 30
IA Akranes 1063 18 18.78 -0.78 46.6% 6 13 16 19 21 24 31
Valur Reykjavik 1045 17 17.78 -0.78 46.8% 6 12 16 18 20 23 30
KR Reykjavik 1039 21 17.27 +3.73 90.3% 7 12 15 17 19 23 30
Breidablik 1030 17 18.00 -1.00 43.9% 7 13 16 18 20 23 29
Keflavik IF 1029 16 17.36 -1.36 39.5% 5 12 15 17 20 23 29
Fram Reykjavik 1026 15 18.36 -3.36 18.9% 7 13 16 18 21 24 29
IBI Isafjordur 1022 17 16.56 +0.44 61.0% 5 11 14 17 19 22 28
KA Akureyri 1021 14 17.78 -3.78 15.6% 5 13 16 18 20 23 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FR IA II IV KA KR KI VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.96
1-1-0
2.48
2-0-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.76
0-0-2
2.66
0-2-0
2.43
Fram Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.71
 —
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.53
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.69
 —
2-0-0
2.93
0-0-2
2.65
1-1-0
2.78
0-2-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.77
0-2-0
2.56
IBI Isafjordur
2-0-0
2.30
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.32
 —
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.20
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
2.60
2-0-0
3.01
 —
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.94
2-0-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.57
KA Akureyri
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.49
 —
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-2
2.43
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.55
1-1-0
2.41
0-2-0
2.38
0-2-0
2.76
2-0-0
2.31
0-1-1
2.57
 —
0-2-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.60
0-1-1
2.36
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.37
0-2-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.52
0-2-0
2.61
 —
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.46
Valur Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.74
 —
0-1-1
2.38
Vikingur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.72
0-2-0
2.69
0-1-1
3.06
1-1-0
2.68
2-0-0
2.82
1-1-0
2.89
2-0-0
2.80
1-1-0
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.06 +1.5
Allowed 0.43 -4.3
Differential 0.77 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%8.33%7.78%3.33%0.56%—33.33%
18.33%13.33%7.22%2.22%1.11%—32.22%
27.78%7.22%8.89%1.67%——25.56%
33.33%2.22%1.67%———7.22%
40.56%1.11%————1.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%32.22%25.56%7.22%1.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.12 +0.00
SD 1.01 1.01 1.46
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.22 -0.22
SD 0.97 0.94 1.59
CV 0.97 0.77 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%—5.56%—38.89%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%33.33%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.28 -0.33
SD 0.94 1.02 1.61
CV 0.99 0.80 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.11 +0.11
SD 1.17 0.90 1.37
CV 0.95 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%—44.44%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%44.44%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.61 +0.06
SD 1.14 1.29 2.01
CV 0.68 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
222.22%11.11%11.11%———44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.89 +0.39
SD 0.96 0.90 1.42
CV 0.75 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%11.11%———44.44%
1——11.11%———11.11%
2—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.22 -0.11
SD 1.13 1.06 1.41
CV 1.02 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—5.56%5.56%——38.89%
116.67%27.78%————44.44%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 0.67 +0.11
SD 0.73 0.91 1.18
CV 0.94 1.36 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.06 -0.28
SD 0.88 1.06 1.27
CV 1.13 1.00 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%——44.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 1.19 0.99 1.69
CV 1.19 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
116.67%22.22%5.56%———44.44%
211.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%33.33%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.94 +0.44
SD 0.78 0.94 0.92
CV 0.56 0.99 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 23 19.14 +3.86
2 KR Reykjavik 21 17.27 +3.73
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 18.96 +3.04
4 IBI Isafjordur 17 16.56 +0.44
5 IA Akranes 18 18.78 -0.78

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 14 17.78 -3.78
2 Fram Reykjavik 15 18.36 -3.36
3 Keflavik IF 16 17.36 -1.36
4 Breidablik 17 18.00 -1.00
5 IA Akranes 18 18.78 -0.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBI Isafjordur 3 May 23 – Jun 12 1 in 91
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 Jun 19 – Jun 30 1 in 24
3 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 19 – Jun 24 1 in 15
4 Breidablik 2 Jul 3 – Jul 17 1 in 12
5 Fram Reykjavik 2 Jun 30 – Jul 3 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 29 – Jun 27 1 in 316
2 KA Akureyri 3 Jun 26 – Jul 3 1 in 44
3 IBI Isafjordur 3 Jun 19 – Jun 30 1 in 35
4 Keflavik IF 3 May 15 – May 23 1 in 23
5 Breidablik 2 Jun 26 – Jun 30 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 9 Jun 30 – Sep 6 1 in 35
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 11 Jun 13 – Aug 23 1 in 34
3 KR Reykjavik 7 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 17
4 KA Akureyri 7 May 15 – Jun 19 1 in 17
5 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 11 – Jul 3 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jul 17 – Aug 23 1 in 12
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 24 – Aug 29 1 in 12
3 KA Akureyri 7 Jul 24 – Sep 11 1 in 12
4 IBI Isafjordur 7 Jun 19 – Jul 24 1 in 9
5 Breidablik 6 Jul 24 – Sep 6 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vikingur Reykjavik18.62%14.52%12.70%11.22%10.15%8.95%7.45%6.46%5.83%4.10%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar16.50%13.70%12.65%11.24%10.47%8.84%8.45%7.32%6.25%4.58%
KR Reykjavik6.64%7.84%8.77%9.40%9.95%10.40%11.13%11.39%11.75%12.73%
IA Akranes14.56%13.21%11.48%10.81%9.87%9.41%8.60%8.52%7.49%6.05%
IBI Isafjordur4.11%5.69%6.98%7.97%9.09%10.51%11.07%12.32%14.21%18.05%
Valur Reykjavik7.84%8.89%9.29%9.81%9.48%10.98%10.76%10.80%10.74%11.41%
Breidablik8.83%9.75%9.41%10.02%10.83%9.72%10.28%10.41%10.68%10.07%
Keflavik IF5.56%7.51%8.54%9.08%9.28%10.40%11.52%11.38%12.37%14.36%
Fram Reykjavik9.36%10.01%10.89%10.60%10.32%10.46%10.32%9.98%9.74%8.32%
KA Akureyri7.98%8.88%9.29%9.85%10.56%10.33%10.42%11.42%10.94%10.33%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.11%
Slight Edge
37.78%35.56%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.76 Elo pts.
609 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
02000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.17 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.2
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Vikingur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.62 * Some Luck: 2.62 to 3.92 * Lucky: 3.92 to 5.23 * Wild Swing: 5.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.27 * Close: 2.27 to 3.41 * Off: 3.41 to 4.54 * Way Off: 4.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.41 * A Surprise: 1.41 to 2.26 * Several Surprises: 2.26 to 3.1 * Many Surprises: 3.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.61 points
As Expected
03.278
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.30
Close
02.846
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
90.80%
Vikingur Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
15.60%
KA Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.71
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
55%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
58%
Even
50%60%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%69%100%
Blowouts
Expected 9%
10%
Occasional
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.64
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.17
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.38
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.92
Overconfident
01.003.49414
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.038
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Vikingur Reykjavik 90.07% 9.93%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 89.17% 10.83%
IA Akranes 86.46% 13.54%
Fram Reykjavik 81.94% 18.06%
Breidablik 79.25% 20.75%
KA Akureyri 78.73% 21.27%
Valur Reykjavik 77.85% 22.15%
KR Reykjavik 75.52% 24.48%
Keflavik IF 73.27% 26.73%
IBI Isafjordur 67.74% 32.26%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1982-05-15 Keflavik IF W 2-0 1050 1040 40.3% 37.4% 22.3% +6.1 2
1982-05-15 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1040 1050 22.3% 37.4% 40.3% -6.1 0
1982-05-15 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1003 1023 36.5% 37.7% 25.8% -0.2 1
1982-05-15 @ IBI Isafjordur D 1-1 1023 1003 25.8% 37.7% 36.5% +0.2 1
1982-05-15 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1057 1033 42.0% 37.2% 20.8% -0.4 1
1982-05-15 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 1033 1057 20.8% 37.2% 42.0% +0.4 1
1982-05-16 IA Akranes W 2-1 1047 1062 37.0% 37.6% 25.3% +3.3 2
1982-05-16 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1062 1047 25.3% 37.6% 37.0% -3.3 0
1982-05-16 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1052 1053 38.8% 37.5% 23.7% -0.3 1
1982-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1053 1052 23.7% 37.5% 38.8% +0.3 1
1982-05-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1003 1056 31.9% 37.7% 30.5% -3.8 1
1982-05-19 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-1 1056 1003 30.5% 37.7% 31.9% +3.8 4
1982-05-19 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1034 1051 36.8% 37.6% 25.6% -4.5 0
1982-05-19 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1051 1034 25.6% 37.6% 36.8% +4.5 3
1982-05-19 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1023 1033 37.7% 37.6% 24.7% -0.3 2
1982-05-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1033 1023 24.7% 37.6% 37.7% +0.3 2
1982-05-20 Breidablik D 2-2 1054 1050 39.5% 37.5% 23.0% -0.3 2
1982-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1050 1054 23.0% 37.5% 39.5% +0.3 3
1982-05-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1059 1057 39.2% 37.5% 23.2% +6.3 2
1982-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 1057 1059 23.2% 37.5% 39.2% -6.3 1
1982-05-23 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1050 1030 41.6% 37.3% 21.1% +8.5 5
1982-05-23 @ Breidablik L 0-3 1030 1050 21.1% 37.3% 41.6% -8.5 0
1982-05-23 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1060 1023 43.6% 37.0% 19.4% -5.1 4
1982-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1023 1060 19.4% 37.0% 43.6% +5.1 4
1982-05-23 IA Akranes D 0-0 1034 1065 34.9% 37.7% 27.4% -0.2 3
1982-05-23 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1065 1034 27.4% 37.7% 34.9% +0.2 3
1982-05-23 IBI Isafjordur L 2-3 1056 999 45.8% 36.6% 17.6% -4.7 3
1982-05-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-2 999 1056 17.6% 36.6% 45.8% +4.7 3
1982-05-24 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1050 1053 38.6% 37.5% 23.8% +3.4 3
1982-05-24 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1053 1050 23.8% 37.5% 38.6% -3.4 2
1982-05-26 IA Akranes D 0-0 1028 1065 34.1% 37.7% 28.2% -0.1 5
1982-05-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1065 1028 28.2% 37.7% 34.1% +0.1 4
1982-05-27 KA Akureyri L 1-2 1050 1033 41.1% 37.3% 21.6% -4.6 2
1982-05-27 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1033 1050 21.6% 37.3% 41.1% +4.6 5
1982-05-29 Breidablik W 3-0 1004 1059 31.6% 37.7% 30.7% +10.9 5
1982-05-29 @ IBI Isafjordur L 0-3 1059 1004 30.7% 37.7% 31.6% -10.9 5
1982-05-29 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 1021 1054 34.7% 37.7% 27.6% +3.5 2
1982-05-29 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1054 1021 27.6% 37.7% 34.7% -3.5 3
1982-06-08 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1025 1055 35.0% 37.7% 27.3% -4.3 2
1982-06-08 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1055 1025 27.3% 37.7% 35.0% +4.3 6
1982-06-11 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1038 1020 41.2% 37.3% 21.4% -0.5 6
1982-06-11 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1020 1038 21.4% 37.3% 41.2% +0.5 3
1982-06-12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1048 1060 37.5% 37.6% 24.9% +3.3 7
1982-06-12 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1060 1048 24.9% 37.6% 37.5% -3.3 6
1982-06-12 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1065 1045 41.5% 37.3% 21.2% -4.9 4
1982-06-12 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 1045 1065 21.2% 37.3% 41.5% +4.9 4
1982-06-12 IBI Isafjordur L 0-3 1050 1015 43.3% 37.0% 19.6% -13.9 3
1982-06-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1015 1050 19.6% 37.0% 43.3% +13.9 7
1982-06-13 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1051 1028 41.9% 37.2% 20.8% +5.8 5
1982-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1028 1051 20.8% 37.2% 41.9% -5.8 5
1982-06-16 Breidablik W 3-1 1060 1051 40.2% 37.4% 22.4% +5.3 6
1982-06-16 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1051 1060 22.4% 37.4% 40.2% -5.3 7
1982-06-16 Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1037 1036 39.1% 37.5% 23.4% +9.1 8
1982-06-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1036 1037 23.4% 37.5% 39.1% -9.1 3
1982-06-18 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1022 1050 35.2% 37.7% 27.1% -0.2 6
1982-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1050 1022 27.1% 37.7% 35.2% +0.2 5
1982-06-19 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1056 1027 42.6% 37.1% 20.3% +5.7 8
1982-06-19 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1027 1056 20.3% 37.1% 42.6% -5.7 3
1982-06-19 KA Akureyri L 1-2 1029 1047 36.7% 37.6% 25.6% -4.2 7
1982-06-19 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-1 1047 1029 25.6% 37.6% 36.7% +4.2 10
1982-06-19 IA Akranes W 1-0 1021 1066 33.0% 37.7% 29.3% +3.9 5
1982-06-19 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1066 1021 29.3% 37.7% 33.0% -3.9 6
1982-06-20 Breidablik D 1-1 1057 1046 40.4% 37.4% 22.2% -0.4 6
1982-06-20 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1046 1057 22.2% 37.4% 40.4% +0.4 8
1982-06-24 Keflavik IF L 0-2 1051 1025 42.2% 37.2% 20.6% -9.4 5
1982-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1025 1051 20.6% 37.2% 42.2% +9.4 7
1982-06-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1046 1022 42.1% 37.2% 20.7% -9.3 8
1982-06-26 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1022 1046 20.7% 37.2% 42.1% +9.3 8
1982-06-26 IBI Isafjordur W 2-1 1062 1025 43.5% 37.0% 19.4% +2.8 8
1982-06-26 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1025 1062 19.4% 37.0% 43.5% -2.8 7
1982-06-26 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1051 1062 37.6% 37.6% 24.8% -4.6 10
1982-06-26 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1062 1051 24.8% 37.6% 37.6% +4.6 10
1982-06-27 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1022 1056 34.4% 37.7% 27.9% -4.3 3
1982-06-27 @ Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1056 1022 27.9% 37.7% 34.4% +4.3 8
1982-06-29 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1031 1034 38.6% 37.5% 23.8% -0.4 9
1982-06-29 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1034 1031 23.8% 37.5% 38.6% +0.4 8
1982-06-30 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1037 1017 41.5% 37.3% 21.2% -4.9 8
1982-06-30 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1017 1037 21.2% 37.3% 41.5% +4.9 5
1982-06-30 IA Akranes W 2-0 1067 1065 39.3% 37.5% 23.2% +6.3 12
1982-06-30 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1065 1067 23.2% 37.5% 39.3% -6.3 8
1982-06-30 Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1022 1041 36.5% 37.7% 25.8% -8.4 7
1982-06-30 @ IBI Isafjordur W 2-0 1041 1022 25.8% 37.7% 36.5% +8.4 7
1982-06-30 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1061 1046 40.8% 37.4% 21.8% +3.0 10
1982-06-30 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1046 1061 21.8% 37.4% 40.8% -3.0 10
1982-07-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1050 1073 36.0% 37.7% 26.3% +9.9 9
1982-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1073 1050 26.3% 37.7% 36.0% -9.9 12
1982-07-03 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1058 1064 38.3% 37.6% 24.1% -0.2 9
1982-07-03 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1064 1058 24.1% 37.6% 38.3% +0.2 11
1982-07-03 Breidablik L 0-2 1043 1032 40.4% 37.4% 22.2% -9.1 10
1982-07-03 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1032 1043 22.2% 37.4% 40.4% +9.1 10
1982-07-03 IBI Isafjordur D 1-1 1034 1013 41.6% 37.3% 21.1% -0.5 9
1982-07-03 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1013 1034 21.1% 37.3% 41.6% +0.5 8
1982-07-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1022 1031 37.9% 37.6% 24.5% -0.3 6
1982-07-04 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1031 1022 24.5% 37.6% 37.9% +0.3 10
1982-07-13 IBI Isafjordur D 2-2 1031 1014 41.1% 37.3% 21.5% -0.3 11
1982-07-13 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1014 1031 21.5% 37.3% 41.1% +0.3 9
1982-07-14 IA Akranes W 3-1 1022 1058 34.2% 37.7% 28.1% +6.1 8
1982-07-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1058 1022 28.1% 37.7% 34.2% -6.1 9
1982-07-15 Keflavik IF W 3-1 1064 1034 42.7% 37.1% 20.1% +4.9 13
1982-07-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-3 1034 1064 20.1% 37.1% 42.7% -4.9 9
1982-07-16 KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1034 1031 39.5% 37.5% 23.0% +9.1 12
1982-07-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1031 1034 23.0% 37.5% 39.5% -9.1 11
1982-07-17 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 1041 1060 36.6% 37.7% 25.7% +3.6 12
1982-07-17 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1060 1041 25.7% 37.7% 36.6% -3.6 9
1982-07-17 IBI Isafjordur W 3-1 1063 1014 44.9% 36.8% 18.3% +4.6 14
1982-07-17 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1014 1063 18.3% 36.8% 44.9% -4.6 9
1982-07-24 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1052 1043 40.1% 37.4% 22.5% +3.3 11
1982-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1043 1052 22.5% 37.4% 40.1% -3.2 12
1982-07-24 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1010 1069 31.0% 37.7% 31.3% +0.0 10
1982-07-24 @ IBI Isafjordur D 2-2 1069 1010 31.3% 37.7% 31.0% -0.0 14
1982-07-24 Breidablik W 1-0 1029 1045 37.0% 37.6% 25.4% +3.5 11
1982-07-24 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1045 1029 25.4% 37.6% 37.0% -3.5 12
1982-07-24 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1022 1068 32.9% 37.7% 29.4% +3.9 13
1982-07-24 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1068 1022 29.4% 37.7% 32.9% -3.9 14
1982-07-25 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1056 1028 42.5% 37.2% 20.4% -0.5 10
1982-07-25 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1028 1056 20.4% 37.2% 42.5% +0.5 9
1982-07-28 IBI Isafjordur L 0-2 1041 1010 42.9% 37.1% 20.0% -9.5 12
1982-07-28 @ Breidablik W 2-0 1010 1041 20.0% 37.1% 42.9% +9.5 12
1982-07-28 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1055 1025 42.7% 37.1% 20.2% -0.5 12
1982-07-28 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1025 1055 20.2% 37.1% 42.7% +0.5 14
1982-07-28 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1040 1055 37.0% 37.6% 25.4% -0.3 13
1982-07-28 @ KA Akureyri D 0-0 1055 1040 25.4% 37.6% 37.0% +0.3 11
1982-07-28 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1069 1064 39.7% 37.5% 22.9% +3.3 16
1982-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1064 1069 22.9% 37.5% 39.7% -3.3 14
1982-07-29 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1029 1032 38.5% 37.6% 23.9% +3.2 11
1982-07-29 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1032 1029 23.9% 37.6% 38.5% -3.2 11
1982-08-05 Breidablik D 0-0 1060 1032 42.5% 37.2% 20.3% -0.6 15
1982-08-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1032 1060 20.3% 37.2% 42.5% +0.6 13
1982-08-05 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1026 1072 32.8% 37.7% 29.5% -0.1 15
1982-08-05 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1072 1026 29.5% 37.7% 32.8% +0.1 17
1982-08-07 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1019 1032 37.4% 37.6% 25.0% -10.5 12
1982-08-07 @ IBI Isafjordur W 4-1 1032 1019 25.0% 37.6% 37.4% +10.5 13
1982-08-07 KA Akureyri W 3-2 1029 1040 37.7% 37.6% 24.7% +3.1 13
1982-08-07 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1040 1029 24.7% 37.6% 37.7% -3.1 13
1982-08-08 IA Akranes D 2-2 1056 1055 39.1% 37.5% 23.3% -0.3 12
1982-08-08 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1055 1056 23.3% 37.5% 39.1% +0.3 13
1982-08-14 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1032 1072 33.7% 37.7% 28.6% -0.1 14
1982-08-14 @ Breidablik D 1-1 1072 1032 28.6% 37.7% 33.7% +0.1 18
1982-08-14 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1055 1032 41.8% 37.2% 20.9% +2.9 15
1982-08-14 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 1032 1055 20.9% 37.2% 41.8% -2.9 13
1982-08-14 IBI Isafjordur L 2-3 1037 1009 42.5% 37.2% 20.4% -4.5 13
1982-08-14 @ KA Akureyri W 3-2 1009 1037 20.4% 37.2% 42.5% +4.5 14
1982-08-14 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1042 1060 36.7% 37.6% 25.6% -0.2 14
1982-08-14 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1060 1042 25.6% 37.6% 36.7% +0.2 16
1982-08-16 KR Reykjavik L 0-2 1055 1026 42.7% 37.1% 20.2% -9.5 12
1982-08-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1026 1055 20.2% 37.1% 42.7% +9.5 17
1982-08-21 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1060 1032 42.5% 37.2% 20.4% -0.4 17
1982-08-21 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1032 1060 20.4% 37.2% 42.5% +0.4 14
1982-08-21 IA Akranes L 1-4 1013 1058 33.1% 37.7% 29.2% -9.6 14
1982-08-21 @ IBI Isafjordur W 4-1 1058 1013 29.2% 37.7% 33.1% +9.6 17
1982-08-23 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1029 1046 36.9% 37.6% 25.5% -0.2 14
1982-08-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1046 1029 25.5% 37.6% 36.9% +0.2 13
1982-08-23 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1072 1042 42.8% 37.1% 20.1% -0.6 19
1982-08-23 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1042 1072 20.1% 37.1% 42.8% +0.6 15
1982-08-24 Breidablik D 1-1 1035 1032 39.4% 37.5% 23.1% -0.4 18
1982-08-24 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1032 1035 23.1% 37.5% 39.4% +0.4 15
1982-08-26 Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1046 1072 35.7% 37.7% 26.7% +3.4 15
1982-08-26 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1072 1046 26.7% 37.7% 35.7% -3.4 19
1982-08-29 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1060 1068 37.9% 37.6% 24.5% -0.2 18
1982-08-29 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1068 1060 24.5% 37.6% 37.9% +0.2 20
1982-09-04 IBI Isafjordur L 0-4 1050 1003 44.6% 36.8% 18.6% -18.6 15
1982-09-04 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1003 1050 18.6% 36.8% 44.6% +18.6 16
1982-09-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 1067 1059 40.0% 37.4% 22.5% -4.5 17
1982-09-04 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1059 1067 22.5% 37.4% 40.0% +4.5 20
1982-09-04 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1032 1069 34.2% 37.7% 28.1% -8.0 14
1982-09-04 @ KA Akureyri W 2-0 1069 1032 28.1% 37.7% 34.2% +8.1 22
1982-09-04 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1029 1035 38.3% 37.6% 24.1% -0.4 15
1982-09-04 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1035 1029 24.1% 37.6% 38.3% +0.3 19
1982-09-06 Breidablik W 2-0 1043 1033 40.3% 37.4% 22.3% +6.1 17
1982-09-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1033 1043 22.3% 37.4% 40.3% -6.1 15
1982-09-11 KA Akureyri W 2-1 1026 1024 39.3% 37.5% 23.2% +3.1 17
1982-09-11 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1024 1026 23.2% 37.5% 39.3% -3.1 14
1982-09-11 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1064 1031 43.0% 37.1% 19.9% +5.6 22
1982-09-11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1031 1064 19.9% 37.1% 43.0% -5.6 15
1982-09-11 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1022 1029 38.1% 37.6% 24.3% -0.3 17
1982-09-11 @ IBI Isafjordur D 0-0 1029 1022 24.3% 37.6% 38.1% +0.3 16
1982-09-11 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1035 1049 37.3% 37.6% 25.1% +3.5 21
1982-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1049 1035 25.1% 37.6% 37.3% -3.5 17
1982-09-12 IA Akranes D 0-0 1077 1063 40.7% 37.4% 21.9% -0.5 23
1982-09-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 1063 1077 21.9% 37.4% 40.7% +0.5 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1982-05-23 17.63% IBI Isafjordur 999 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1056 2
2 1982-09-04 18.56% IBI Isafjordur 1003 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1050 0
3 1982-05-23 19.39% KR Reykjavik 1023 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1060 0
4 1982-06-12 19.62% IBI Isafjordur 1015 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1050 0
5 1982-07-28 20.00% IBI Isafjordur 1010 2 @ Breidablik 1041 0
6 1982-08-16 20.20% KR Reykjavik 1026 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1055 0
7 1982-08-14 20.37% IBI Isafjordur 1009 3 @ KA Akureyri 1037 2
8 1982-06-24 20.57% Keflavik IF 1025 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1051 0
9 1982-06-26 20.70% KR Reykjavik 1022 2 @ Breidablik 1046 0
10 1982-06-12 21.24% Fram Reykjavik 1045 1 @ IA Akranes 1065 0
11 1982-06-30 21.24% Valur Reykjavik 1017 1 @ Breidablik 1037 0
12 1982-05-27 21.56% KA Akureyri 1033 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1050 1
13 1982-07-03 22.18% Breidablik 1032 2 @ KA Akureyri 1043 0
14 1982-09-04 22.54% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1059 2 @ IA Akranes 1067 1
15 1982-06-26 24.82% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1062 1 @ KA Akureyri 1051 0
16 1982-08-07 24.99% Valur Reykjavik 1032 4 @ IBI Isafjordur 1019 1
17 1982-05-19 25.58% Vikingur Reykjavik 1051 1 @ Keflavik IF 1034 0
18 1982-06-19 25.63% KA Akureyri 1047 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 1029 1
19 1982-06-30 25.84% Fram Reykjavik 1041 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 1022 0
20 1982-06-08 27.33% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1055 1 @ Keflavik IF 1025 0
21 1982-06-27 27.90% Vikingur Reykjavik 1056 1 @ Valur Reykjavik 1022 0
22 1982-09-04 28.06% Vikingur Reykjavik 1069 2 @ KA Akureyri 1032 0
23 1982-08-21 29.24% IA Akranes 1058 4 @ IBI Isafjordur 1013 1
24 1982-05-19 30.47% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1056 2 @ IBI Isafjordur 1003 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-09-04 18.57 IBI Isafjordur 4 1003 18.56% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1050 44.60% 36.84%
2 1982-06-12 13.90 IBI Isafjordur 3 1015 19.62% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1050 43.34% 37.04%
3 1982-05-29 10.90 @ IBI Isafjordur 3 1004 31.64% Breidablik 0 1059 30.68% 37.68%
4 1982-08-07 10.49 Valur Reykjavik 4 1032 24.99% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 1019 37.39% 37.62%
5 1982-07-03 9.90 @ Fram Reykjavik 3 1050 35.98% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1073 26.34% 37.68%
6 1982-08-21 9.64 IA Akranes 4 1058 29.24% @ IBI Isafjordur 1 1013 33.05% 37.70%
7 1982-07-28 9.49 IBI Isafjordur 2 1010 20.00% @ Breidablik 0 1041 42.89% 37.11%
8 1982-08-16 9.45 KR Reykjavik 2 1026 20.20% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1055 42.66% 37.14%
9 1982-06-24 9.37 Keflavik IF 2 1025 20.57% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1051 42.23% 37.20%
10 1982-06-26 9.34 KR Reykjavik 2 1022 20.70% @ Breidablik 0 1046 42.08% 37.22%
11 1982-06-16 9.15 @ KA Akureyri 3 1037 39.14% Valur Reykjavik 0 1036 23.35% 37.51%
12 1982-07-03 9.07 Breidablik 2 1032 22.18% @ KA Akureyri 0 1043 40.41% 37.40%
13 1982-07-16 9.07 @ KA Akureyri 3 1034 39.47% KR Reykjavik 0 1031 23.04% 37.49%
14 1982-05-23 8.55 @ Breidablik 3 1050 41.59% Keflavik IF 0 1030 21.13% 37.28%
15 1982-06-30 8.42 Fram Reykjavik 2 1041 25.84% @ IBI Isafjordur 0 1022 36.50% 37.66%
16 1982-09-04 8.05 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1069 28.06% @ KA Akureyri 0 1032 34.24% 37.71%
17 1982-05-20 6.28 @ IA Akranes 2 1059 39.25% Valur Reykjavik 0 1057 23.24% 37.51%
18 1982-06-30 6.28 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1067 39.27% IA Akranes 0 1065 23.23% 37.50%
19 1982-07-14 6.15 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 1022 34.23% IA Akranes 1 1058 28.06% 37.71%
20 1982-05-15 6.11 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1050 40.30% Keflavik IF 0 1040 22.29% 37.42%
21 1982-09-06 6.11 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 1043 40.27% Breidablik 0 1033 22.31% 37.42%
22 1982-06-13 5.83 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 1051 41.93% KR Reykjavik 0 1028 20.84% 37.24%
23 1982-06-19 5.72 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1056 42.59% Valur Reykjavik 0 1027 20.26% 37.15%
24 1982-09-11 5.64 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1064 43.04% Fram Reykjavik 0 1031 19.88% 37.09%
25 1982-06-16 5.31 @ IA Akranes 3 1060 40.16% Breidablik 1 1051 22.41% 37.43%