1979 Úrvalsdeild Season

91 games

Final

Champion

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

24 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Haukar Hafnarfjordur

5 pts

KA Akureyri · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

6.88 points above expected

22 points · 15.12 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Haukar Hafnarfjordur

9.22 points below expected

5 points · 14.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Champion	18	10	4	4	24	26	13	+13	21.02	+2.98
2	Valur Reykjavik	18	9	5	4	23	35	22	+13	25.68	-2.68
3	IA Akranes	18	10	3	5	23	27	17	+10	24.03	-1.03
4	Keflavik IF	18	8	6	4	22	26	18	+8	21.04	+0.96
5	KR Reykjavik	18	9	4	5	22	29	24	+5	15.12	+6.88
6	Fram Reykjavik	18	4	9	5	17	25	23	+2	15.51	+1.49
7	Vikingur Reykjavik	18	6	4	8	16	26	25	+1	17.69	-1.69
8	Throttur Reykjavik	18	6	4	8	16	27	31	-4	14.71	+1.29
9	KA Akureyri Relegated	18	3	6	9	12	21	36	-15	10.98	+1.02
10	Haukar Hafnarfjordur Relegated	18	1	3	14	5	12	45	-33	14.22	-9.22

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	IA Akranes	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	—	—
2	Valur Reykjavik	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	—	—

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
IA Akranes	1298	23	24.03	-1.03	42.7%	9	19	22	24	26	29	34
Valur Reykjavik	1288	23	25.68	-2.68	22.7%	14	21	24	26	28	30	35
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1228	24	21.02	+2.98	86.1%	8	16	19	21	23	26	32
Keflavik IF	1180	22	21.04	+0.96	67.3%	9	16	19	21	23	26	32
KR Reykjavik	1138	22	15.12	+6.88	99.0%	3	10	13	15	17	21	27
Vikingur Reykjavik	1091	16	17.69	-1.69	35.9%	6	12	15	18	20	23	30
Fram Reykjavik	1089	17	15.51	+1.49	73.0%	5	10	13	15	18	21	29
Throttur Reykjavik	1077	16	14.71	+1.29	71.2%	4	9	12	15	17	20	28
KA Akureyri	948	12	10.98	+1.02	69.6%	1	6	9	11	13	16	24
Haukar Hafnarfjordur	903	5	14.22	-9.22	0.2%	4	9	12	14	16	20	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FR	HH	IA	IV	KA	KR	KI	TR	VR	VR
Fram Reykjavik	—	1-1-0 2.75	0-2-0 1.45	1-1-0 1.81	0-2-0 3.71	0-0-2 2.91	1-1-0 1.61	0-1-1 2.93	0-1-1 1.21	1-0-1 2.30
Haukar Hafnarfjordur	0-1-1 2.68	—	1-0-1 1.26	0-0-2 1.51	0-1-1 3.62	0-0-2 2.81	0-1-1 1.47	0-0-2 2.28	0-0-2 1.06	0-0-2 2.24
IA Akranes	0-2-0 4.01	1-0-1 4.22	—	0-0-2 3.16	2-0-0 4.48	2-0-0 4.16	1-1-0 3.38	2-0-0 3.92	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 3.73
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0-1-1 3.64	2-0-0 3.94	2-0-0 2.28	—	1-0-1 4.04	0-1-1 3.67	0-1-1 2.77	2-0-0 3.52	2-0-0 1.68	1-1-0 3.42
KA Akureyri	0-2-0 1.74	1-1-0 1.81	0-0-2 1.02	1-0-1 1.43	—	0-1-1 1.88	0-1-1 1.36	0-0-2 2.40	0-1-1 0.88	1-0-1 1.58
KR Reykjavik	2-0-0 2.51	2-0-0 2.63	0-0-2 1.30	1-1-0 1.78	1-1-0 3.56	—	1-0-1 1.81	0-1-1 3.17	0-1-1 1.10	2-0-0 2.41
Keflavik IF	0-1-1 3.83	1-1-0 3.99	0-1-1 2.05	1-1-0 2.66	1-1-0 4.12	1-0-1 3.62	—	1-1-0 3.78	1-0-1 2.06	2-0-0 3.07
Throttur Reykjavik	1-1-0 2.50	2-0-0 3.15	0-0-2 1.54	0-0-2 1.92	2-0-0 3.04	1-1-0 2.26	0-1-1 1.67	—	0-0-2 1.21	0-1-1 2.16
Valur Reykjavik	1-1-0 4.27	2-0-0 4.43	1-0-1 2.92	0-0-2 3.77	1-1-0 4.64	1-1-0 4.38	1-0-1 3.39	2-0-0 4.26	—	0-2-0 4.06
Vikingur Reykjavik	1-0-1 3.13	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 1.71	0-1-1 2.01	1-0-1 3.86	0-0-2 3.02	0-0-2 2.36	1-1-0 3.27	0-2-0 1.41	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.72	+8.8
Allowed	0.89	-6.0
Differential	0.95	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	7.69%	5.49%	3.30%	3.30%	—	27.47%
1	7.69%	16.48%	3.85%	4.40%	1.10%	2.20%	35.71%
2	5.49%	3.85%	2.20%	3.85%	1.10%	—	16.48%
3	3.30%	4.40%	3.85%	1.10%	—	—	12.64%
4	3.30%	1.10%	1.10%	—	—	—	5.49%
5+	—	2.20%	—	—	—	—	2.20%
Total	27.47%	35.71%	16.48%	12.64%	5.49%	2.20%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.40	1.40	+0.00
SD	1.28	1.28	1.94
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 91

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	44.44%	—	—	—	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	55.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.28	+0.11
SD	1.09	1.27	1.81
CV	0.79	1.00	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	50.00%
1	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.67	2.50	-1.83
SD	0.77	1.38	1.50
CV	1.15	0.55	—
Max	2	5	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.79%	10.53%	5.26%	—	—	—	31.58%
1	15.79%	5.26%	10.53%	—	—	—	31.58%
2	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	—	—	10.53%
3	—	5.26%	10.53%	—	—	—	15.79%
4	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	—	—	10.53%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.11%	26.32%	31.58%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	0.89	+0.53
SD	1.39	0.88	1.43
CV	0.98	0.98	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	55.56%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	0.72	+0.72
SD	1.15	0.96	1.74
CV	0.80	1.33	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	2.00	-0.83
SD	0.99	1.50	1.76
CV	0.84	0.75	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.33	+0.28
SD	1.24	1.28	1.78
CV	0.77	0.96	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	44.44%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.00	+0.44
SD	1.50	1.19	2.06
CV	1.04	1.19	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	55.56%
2	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.72	-0.22
SD	1.47	1.27	2.24
CV	0.98	0.74	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.53%	—	10.53%	—	—	—	21.05%
1	5.26%	15.79%	5.26%	—	—	—	26.32%
2	—	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	—	10.53%
3	15.79%	5.26%	10.53%	5.26%	—	—	36.84%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.26%	—	—	—	—	5.26%
Total	31.58%	31.58%	26.32%	10.53%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.84	1.16	+0.68
SD	1.42	1.01	1.70
CV	0.77	0.88	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	44.44%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.39	+0.06
SD	1.54	1.20	2.15
CV	1.07	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KR Reykjavik	22	15.12	+6.88
2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	24	21.02	+2.98
3	Fram Reykjavik	17	15.51	+1.49
4	Throttur Reykjavik	16	14.71	+1.29
5	KA Akureyri	12	10.98	+1.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	5	14.22	-9.22
2	Valur Reykjavik	23	25.68	-2.68
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	16	17.69	-1.69
4	IA Akranes	23	24.03	-1.03
5	Keflavik IF	22	21.04	+0.96

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	7	Jul 1 – Aug 12	1 in 41
2	Keflavik IF	3	Aug 30 – Sep 15	1 in 30
3	KR Reykjavik	2	Jun 11 – Jun 16	1 in 22
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	Aug 18 – Aug 30	1 in 14
5	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	Jul 1 – Jul 9	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	3	Aug 2 – Aug 16	1 in 112
2	Fram Reykjavik	4	Jul 15 – Aug 1	1 in 56
3	IA Akranes	2	Jun 30 – Jul 9	1 in 29
4	Valur Reykjavik	2	Jun 12 – Jun 16	1 in 23
5	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	5	Aug 18 – Sep 15	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fram Reykjavik	8	May 14 – Jul 8	1 in 154
2	Vikingur Reykjavik	7	Jun 16 – Jul 29	1 in 48
3	Throttur Reykjavik	4	Aug 1 – Aug 21	1 in 14
4	Keflavik IF	6	May 16 – Jun 24	1 in 6
5	KR Reykjavik	4	Jun 30 – Jul 22	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	14	Jun 19 – Sep 15	1 in 62
2	Fram Reykjavik	8	Jun 26 – Aug 11	1 in 24
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	Aug 2 – Aug 22	1 in 9
4	IA Akranes	3	Jun 26 – Jul 9	1 in 9
5	Valur Reykjavik	3	Jun 12 – Jun 25	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	7.78%	17.51%	25.87%	23.09%	12.65%	7.02%	3.68%	1.63%	0.59%	0.18%
Valur Reykjavik	55.64%	26.27%	11.32%	4.76%	1.41%	0.39%	0.15%	0.06%	—	—
IA Akranes	28.21%	34.19%	20.20%	10.39%	4.44%	1.71%	0.47%	0.24%	0.13%	0.02%
Keflavik IF	7.16%	16.00%	24.95%	24.27%	14.31%	7.01%	3.62%	1.73%	0.82%	0.13%
KR Reykjavik	0.12%	0.63%	2.79%	6.32%	13.66%	17.17%	18.27%	17.76%	15.11%	8.17%
Fram Reykjavik	0.11%	0.92%	3.16%	7.16%	13.18%	18.53%	19.24%	17.53%	13.12%	7.05%
Vikingur Reykjavik	0.81%	3.61%	7.95%	15.30%	22.79%	18.61%	13.90%	9.35%	5.45%	2.23%
Throttur Reykjavik	0.13%	0.54%	2.24%	5.18%	9.10%	15.02%	18.09%	19.39%	19.48%	10.83%
KA Akureyri	—	0.02%	0.17%	0.43%	1.36%	3.22%	6.52%	11.48%	22.47%	54.33%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur	0.04%	0.31%	1.35%	3.10%	7.10%	11.32%	16.06%	20.83%	22.83%	17.06%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+17.58%

Clear Edge

45.05%27.47%27.47%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 61.73 Elo pts.

278 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.35 goals

Neutral

-2+0.22+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.5

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

IBV Vestmannaeyjar, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.55 * Some Luck: 2.55 to 3.83 * Lucky: 3.83 to 5.11 * Wild Swing: 5.11 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.09 * Way Off: 2.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.83 * A Surprise: 0.83 to 1.33 * Several Surprises: 1.33 to 1.83 * Many Surprises: 1.83 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.98 points

Lucky

03.198

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.303

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.97%

KR Reykjavik

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.18%

Haukar Hafnarfjordur

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.43

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

Strong Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Very Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.48

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.54

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.59

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Shaky Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.18

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.57

Overconfident

0.4353361.001.56466

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.178

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1680.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik	100%	—
IA Akranes	99.85%	0.15%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	99.23%	0.77%
Keflavik IF	99.05%	0.95%
Vikingur Reykjavik	92.32%	7.68%
Fram Reykjavik	79.83%	20.17%
KR Reykjavik	76.72%	23.28%
Throttur Reykjavik	69.69%	30.31%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur	60.11%	39.89%
KA Akureyri	23.20%	76.80%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1979-05-12	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	954	1136	24.8%	28.3%	46.9%	+26.9	2
1979-05-12	@ KA Akureyri	L 1-3	1136	954	46.9%	28.3%	24.8%	-26.9	0
1979-05-12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1046	1144	35.5%	28.8%	35.7%	-25.1	0
1979-05-12	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1144	1046	35.7%	28.8%	35.5%	+25.1	2
1979-05-14	Fram Reykjavik	L 1-3	1114	1023	57.4%	27.9%	14.7%	-32.6	0
1979-05-14	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1023	1114	14.7%	27.9%	57.4%	+32.6	2
1979-05-15	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1014	1333	12.8%	26.5%	60.7%	+3.9	1
1979-05-15	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1333	1014	60.7%	26.5%	12.8%	-3.9	1
1979-05-16	IA Akranes	D 0-0	1179	1298	32.6%	28.7%	38.6%	+0.5	1
1979-05-16	@ Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1298	1179	38.6%	28.7%	32.6%	-0.5	1
1979-05-29	KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1109	1018	57.4%	27.9%	14.7%	-19.9	0
1979-05-29	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1018	1109	14.7%	27.9%	57.4%	+19.9	3
1979-05-29	KA Akureyri	W 3-2	1298	981	71.3%	23.9%	4.8%	+2.0	3
1979-05-29	@ IA Akranes	L 2-3	981	1298	4.8%	23.9%	71.3%	-2.0	2
1979-05-29	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1169	1180	47.0%	28.7%	24.3%	-1.9	3
1979-05-29	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	1180	1169	24.3%	28.7%	47.0%	+1.9	2
1979-05-29	Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1081	1021	54.6%	28.2%	17.1%	+7.2	2
1979-05-29	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1021	1081	17.1%	28.2%	54.6%	-7.2	0
1979-05-30	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1055	1329	16.0%	27.2%	56.8%	+3.2	3
1979-05-30	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1329	1055	56.8%	27.2%	16.0%	-3.2	2
1979-06-02	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	979	1167	24.0%	28.3%	47.7%	+16.7	4
1979-06-02	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-1	1167	979	47.7%	28.3%	24.0%	-16.7	3
1979-06-02	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	1326	1089	67.3%	25.6%	7.0%	+9.3	4
1979-06-02	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1089	1326	7.0%	25.6%	67.3%	-9.3	0
1979-06-04	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1182	1089	57.5%	27.9%	14.6%	+23.9	4
1979-06-04	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-4	1089	1182	14.6%	27.9%	57.5%	-23.9	2
1979-06-04	IA Akranes	L 1-3	1038	1300	16.9%	27.4%	55.7%	-12.2	3
1979-06-04	@ KR Reykjavik	W 3-1	1300	1038	55.7%	27.4%	16.9%	+12.2	5
1979-06-06	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1013	1058	42.8%	28.8%	28.4%	-1.0	1
1979-06-06	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1058	1013	28.4%	28.8%	42.8%	+1.0	4
1979-06-10	Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-2	996	1012	46.3%	28.7%	24.9%	-30.9	4
1979-06-10	@ KA Akureyri	W 2-0	1012	996	24.9%	28.7%	46.3%	+30.9	3
1979-06-11	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1206	1060	61.7%	27.2%	11.1%	-4.2	5
1979-06-11	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1060	1206	11.1%	27.2%	61.7%	+4.2	5
1979-06-11	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1025	1065	43.5%	28.8%	27.7%	+11.1	5
1979-06-11	@ KR Reykjavik	L 0-1	1065	1025	27.7%	28.8%	43.5%	-11.1	2
1979-06-12	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1079	1312	19.5%	27.8%	52.7%	+17.2	2
1979-06-12	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	L 1-2	1312	1079	52.7%	27.8%	19.5%	-17.2	5
1979-06-12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1335	1150	64.3%	26.6%	9.2%	-42.0	4
1979-06-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1150	1335	9.2%	26.6%	64.3%	+42.0	5
1979-06-16	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-2	1295	1293	48.4%	28.7%	22.9%	+8.6	7
1979-06-16	@ IA Akranes	L 2-3	1293	1295	22.9%	28.7%	48.4%	-8.6	4
1979-06-16	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1192	1037	62.4%	27.1%	10.6%	-40.8	5
1979-06-16	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	1037	1192	10.6%	27.1%	62.4%	+40.8	7
1979-06-16	KA Akureyri	W 4-0	1054	965	57.2%	28.0%	14.9%	+24.3	4
1979-06-16	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-4	965	1054	14.9%	28.0%	57.2%	-24.4	4
1979-06-18	Keflavik IF	L 0-4	1043	1202	27.5%	28.5%	44.0%	-39.4	3
1979-06-18	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1202	1043	44.0%	28.5%	27.5%	+39.5	7
1979-06-19	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	1064	1097	44.3%	28.8%	26.9%	+29.8	7
1979-06-19	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-3	1097	1064	26.9%	28.8%	44.3%	-29.8	2
1979-06-23	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 4-0	1152	1067	56.8%	28.0%	15.2%	+24.8	7
1979-06-23	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-4	1067	1152	15.2%	28.0%	56.8%	-24.8	2
1979-06-24	KA Akureyri	W 2-1	1241	941	70.6%	24.3%	5.1%	+2.3	9
1979-06-24	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-2	941	1241	5.1%	24.3%	70.6%	-2.3	4
1979-06-25	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1078	1285	22.0%	28.1%	49.9%	+2.4	5
1979-06-25	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1285	1078	49.9%	28.1%	22.0%	-2.3	5
1979-06-26	IA Akranes	D 1-1	1094	1303	21.7%	28.0%	50.2%	+2.2	8
1979-06-26	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1303	1094	50.2%	28.0%	21.7%	-2.2	8
1979-06-27	KR Reykjavik	W 5-1	1004	1077	39.0%	28.8%	32.2%	+37.0	5
1979-06-27	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-5	1077	1004	32.2%	28.8%	39.0%	-37.0	7
1979-06-29	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	938	1096	27.6%	28.5%	43.9%	+1.2	5
1979-06-29	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1096	938	43.9%	28.5%	27.6%	-1.2	9
1979-06-30	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1301	1176	60.1%	27.5%	12.4%	-39.3	8
1979-06-30	@ IA Akranes	W 2-0	1176	1301	12.4%	27.5%	60.1%	+39.3	9
1979-06-30	Keflavik IF	W 3-2	1040	1243	22.4%	28.1%	49.5%	+15.4	9
1979-06-30	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1243	1040	49.5%	28.1%	22.4%	-15.5	9
1979-07-01	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1042	1080	43.6%	28.8%	27.6%	-25.4	2
1979-07-01	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	1080	1042	27.6%	28.8%	43.6%	+25.4	7
1979-07-01	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1282	1041	67.6%	25.5%	6.9%	+5.4	7
1979-07-01	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	1041	1282	6.9%	25.5%	67.6%	-5.4	5
1979-07-08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1094	1216	32.3%	28.7%	39.0%	+0.5	10
1979-07-08	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1216	1094	39.0%	28.7%	32.3%	-0.5	10
1979-07-08	KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	940	1056	33.0%	28.7%	38.3%	+0.4	6
1979-07-08	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1056	940	38.3%	28.7%	33.0%	-0.4	10
1979-07-09	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1228	1288	40.8%	28.8%	30.4%	-40.4	9
1979-07-09	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-0	1288	1228	30.4%	28.8%	40.8%	+40.5	9
1979-07-09	IA Akranes	W 1-0	1106	1262	27.8%	28.5%	43.7%	+15.6	9
1979-07-09	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1262	1106	43.7%	28.5%	27.8%	-15.6	8
1979-07-10	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-2	1035	1017	50.4%	28.6%	21.1%	+8.1	7
1979-07-10	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 2-3	1017	1035	21.1%	28.6%	50.4%	-8.1	2
1979-07-13	Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-0	1246	1044	65.4%	26.3%	8.4%	+14.4	10
1979-07-13	@ IA Akranes	L 0-4	1044	1246	8.4%	26.3%	65.4%	-14.4	7
1979-07-14	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	1009	1187	25.1%	28.3%	46.6%	+1.8	3
1979-07-14	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	1187	1009	46.6%	28.3%	25.1%	-1.8	10
1979-07-14	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1215	1121	57.6%	27.9%	14.5%	-3.5	11
1979-07-14	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	1121	1215	14.5%	27.9%	57.6%	+3.4	10
1979-07-14	KA Akureyri	W 5-1	1328	940	74.4%	22.2%	3.3%	+4.6	11
1979-07-14	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-5	940	1328	3.3%	22.2%	74.4%	-4.6	6
1979-07-15	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	1055	1095	43.5%	28.8%	27.7%	+10.0	12
1979-07-15	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-3	1095	1055	27.7%	28.8%	43.5%	-10.0	10
1979-07-20	IA Akranes	L 2-4	935	1261	12.4%	26.4%	61.2%	-8.3	6
1979-07-20	@ KA Akureyri	W 4-2	1261	935	61.2%	26.4%	12.4%	+8.3	12
1979-07-21	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-1	1186	1212	45.1%	28.8%	26.1%	+17.4	12
1979-07-21	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	1212	1186	26.1%	28.8%	45.1%	-17.4	11
1979-07-22	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 4-1	1065	1010	54.1%	28.3%	17.6%	+18.1	14
1979-07-22	@ KR Reykjavik	L 1-4	1010	1065	17.6%	28.3%	54.1%	-18.1	3
1979-07-23	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	1333	1085	67.9%	25.4%	6.7%	+2.9	13
1979-07-23	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 2-3	1085	1333	6.7%	25.4%	67.9%	-2.9	10
1979-07-26	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1029	1125	35.9%	28.8%	35.4%	-0.0	8
1979-07-26	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1125	1029	35.4%	28.8%	35.9%	+0.0	11
1979-07-27	Keflavik IF	W 1-0	1269	1203	55.1%	28.2%	16.7%	+7.5	14
1979-07-27	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1203	1269	16.7%	28.2%	55.1%	-7.5	12
1979-07-28	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1194	1029	63.0%	26.9%	10.1%	+7.9	13
1979-07-28	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 1-3	1029	1194	10.1%	26.9%	63.0%	-7.9	8
1979-07-29	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-5	1082	1125	43.0%	28.8%	28.1%	-46.0	10
1979-07-29	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 5-1	1125	1082	28.1%	28.8%	43.0%	+46.0	13
1979-07-29	KA Akureyri	D 2-2	992	927	55.0%	28.2%	16.8%	-2.2	4
1979-07-29	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	927	992	16.8%	28.2%	55.0%	+2.2	7
1979-07-30	KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1336	1083	68.2%	25.3%	6.5%	+3.1	15
1979-07-30	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1083	1336	6.5%	25.3%	68.2%	-3.1	14
1979-08-01	Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1036	1021	49.9%	28.6%	21.5%	-17.5	10
1979-08-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1021	1036	21.5%	28.6%	49.9%	+17.5	10
1979-08-02	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	990	1339	11.0%	26.0%	63.0%	-13.9	4
1979-08-02	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	1339	990	63.0%	26.0%	11.0%	+13.9	17
1979-08-02	KR Reykjavik	W 2-0	1276	1080	65.0%	26.4%	8.6%	+7.8	16
1979-08-02	@ IA Akranes	L 0-2	1080	1276	8.6%	26.4%	65.0%	-7.8	14
1979-08-02	KA Akureyri	W 3-0	1202	929	69.2%	24.9%	5.9%	+7.7	15
1979-08-02	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	929	1202	5.9%	24.9%	69.2%	-7.7	7
1979-08-02	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1171	1195	45.3%	28.8%	25.9%	-15.2	13
1979-08-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1195	1171	25.9%	28.8%	45.3%	+15.2	14
1979-08-10	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	922	1156	19.4%	27.8%	52.9%	+29.9	9
1979-08-10	@ KA Akureyri	L 1-3	1156	922	52.9%	27.8%	19.4%	-29.9	13
1979-08-11	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	976	1019	43.1%	28.8%	28.1%	-1.1	5
1979-08-11	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	D 1-1	1019	976	28.1%	28.8%	43.1%	+1.1	11
1979-08-11	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	1072	1210	30.1%	28.6%	41.2%	+0.6	15
1979-08-11	@ KR Reykjavik	D 2-2	1210	1072	41.2%	28.6%	30.1%	-0.6	16
1979-08-12	IA Akranes	W 2-1	1353	1284	55.4%	28.2%	16.5%	+7.0	19
1979-08-12	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1284	1353	16.5%	28.2%	55.4%	-7.0	16
1979-08-13	Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1211	1039	63.4%	26.8%	9.8%	-4.5	15
1979-08-13	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1039	1211	9.8%	26.8%	63.4%	+4.5	11
1979-08-16	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1126	1073	53.8%	28.3%	17.8%	-35.4	13
1979-08-16	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1073	1126	17.8%	28.3%	53.8%	+35.4	17
1979-08-18	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1277	975	70.7%	24.3%	5.1%	+2.4	18
1979-08-18	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	975	1277	5.1%	24.3%	70.7%	-2.4	5
1979-08-18	Valur Reykjavik	W 2-0	1210	1360	28.5%	28.5%	42.9%	+28.9	18
1979-08-18	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	1360	1210	42.9%	28.5%	28.5%	-28.9	19
1979-08-18	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1043	952	57.4%	27.9%	14.7%	+6.7	13
1979-08-18	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	952	1043	14.7%	27.9%	57.4%	-6.7	9
1979-08-19	Keflavik IF	W 4-0	1020	1206	24.2%	28.3%	47.5%	+59.7	13
1979-08-19	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-4	1206	1020	47.5%	28.3%	24.2%	-59.7	15
1979-08-21	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	973	1238	16.6%	27.4%	56.1%	-7.3	5
1979-08-21	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1238	973	56.1%	27.4%	16.6%	+7.3	20
1979-08-21	Throttur Reykjavik	D 1-1	1108	1050	54.4%	28.2%	17.3%	-2.9	18
1979-08-21	@ KR Reykjavik	D 1-1	1050	1108	17.3%	28.2%	54.4%	+2.9	14
1979-08-22	Fram Reykjavik	D 0-0	1280	1079	65.2%	26.3%	8.5%	-5.4	19
1979-08-22	@ IA Akranes	D 0-0	1079	1280	8.5%	26.3%	65.2%	+5.3	14
1979-08-22	Keflavik IF	D 0-0	945	1146	22.6%	28.1%	49.3%	+2.2	10
1979-08-22	@ KA Akureyri	D 0-0	1146	945	49.3%	28.1%	22.6%	-2.2	16
1979-08-22	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1331	1090	67.5%	25.6%	6.9%	-3.2	20
1979-08-22	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 3-3	1090	1331	6.9%	25.6%	67.5%	+3.2	14
1979-08-29	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	1094	965	60.4%	27.5%	12.2%	+15.7	16
1979-08-29	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-3	965	1094	12.2%	27.5%	60.4%	-15.6	5
1979-08-30	IA Akranes	W 1-0	1246	1274	44.9%	28.8%	26.4%	+10.7	22
1979-08-30	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1274	1246	26.4%	28.8%	44.9%	-10.7	19
1979-08-30	KR Reykjavik	W 1-0	1144	1106	52.5%	28.4%	19.1%	+8.4	18
1979-08-30	@ Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1106	1144	19.1%	28.4%	52.5%	-8.4	18
1979-08-30	Valur Reykjavik	L 2-3	1053	1328	15.9%	27.2%	56.9%	-6.3	14
1979-08-30	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-2	1328	1053	56.9%	27.2%	15.9%	+6.3	22
1979-09-01	KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1085	947	61.1%	27.3%	11.6%	-4.1	15
1979-09-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	947	1085	11.6%	27.3%	61.1%	+4.1	11
1979-09-08	Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-5	950	1047	35.7%	28.8%	35.5%	-39.8	5
1979-09-08	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 5-1	1047	950	35.5%	28.8%	35.7%	+39.8	16
1979-09-08	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1264	1109	62.3%	27.1%	10.7%	+5.1	21
1979-09-08	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1109	1264	10.7%	27.1%	62.3%	-5.1	16
1979-09-08	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	1256	1081	63.7%	26.7%	9.6%	-41.7	22
1979-09-08	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	1081	1256	9.6%	26.7%	63.7%	+41.6	17
1979-09-08	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1334	1153	64.0%	26.6%	9.3%	-20.9	22
1979-09-08	@ Valur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1153	1334	9.3%	26.6%	64.0%	+20.9	20
1979-09-09	KA Akureyri	W 4-2	1097	951	61.7%	27.2%	11.1%	+7.7	20
1979-09-09	@ KR Reykjavik	L 2-4	951	1097	11.1%	27.2%	61.7%	-7.7	11
1979-09-14	KR Reykjavik	L 0-2	1122	1105	50.2%	28.6%	21.2%	-33.2	17
1979-09-14	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1105	1122	21.2%	28.6%	50.2%	+33.2	22
1979-09-15	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	W 4-1	1174	910	68.8%	25.1%	6.2%	+6.9	22
1979-09-15	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-4	910	1174	6.2%	25.1%	68.8%	-6.9	5
1979-09-15	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1104	1215	33.7%	28.7%	37.5%	-12.8	16
1979-09-15	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1215	1104	37.5%	28.7%	33.7%	+12.8	24
1979-09-16	Valur Reykjavik	D 1-1	943	1313	10.0%	25.6%	64.5%	+4.5	12
1979-09-16	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1313	943	64.5%	25.6%	10.0%	-4.5	23
1979-09-16	IA Akranes	L 1-2	1086	1269	24.7%	28.3%	47.0%	-9.6	16
1979-09-16	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	1269	1086	47.0%	28.3%	24.7%	+9.6	23

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1979-09-28	IA Akranes	D 0-0	1308	1278	51.6%	28.5%	19.9%	-2.7	1
1979-09-28	@ Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1278	1308	19.9%	28.5%	51.6%	+2.7	1

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1979-10-02	Valur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1281	1306	45.3%	28.8%	25.9%	+17.3	1-0
1979-10-02	@ IA Akranes	L 1-3	1306	1281	25.9%	28.8%	45.3%	-17.3	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1979-06-12	9.15%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1150	2	@ Valur Reykjavik	1335	0
2	1979-09-08	9.31%	Keflavik IF	1153	2	@ Valur Reykjavik	1334	1
3	1979-09-08	9.57%	Fram Reykjavik	1081	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1256	0
4	1979-06-16	10.59%	KR Reykjavik	1037	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1192	0
5	1979-06-30	12.41%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1176	2	@ IA Akranes	1301	0
6	1979-05-14	14.69%	Fram Reykjavik	1023	3	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1114	1
7	1979-05-29	14.72%	KR Reykjavik	1018	1	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1109	0
8	1979-08-16	17.84%	KR Reykjavik	1073	2	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1126	0
9	1979-08-10	19.35%	@ KA Akureyri	922	3	Vikingur Reykjavik	1156	1
10	1979-06-12	19.50%	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1079	2	IA Akranes	1312	1
11	1979-09-14	21.21%	KR Reykjavik	1105	2	@ Fram Reykjavik	1122	0
12	1979-08-01	21.48%	Throttur Reykjavik	1021	1	@ Fram Reykjavik	1036	0
13	1979-06-30	22.43%	@ KR Reykjavik	1040	3	Keflavik IF	1243	2
14	1979-06-02	24.04%	@ KA Akureyri	979	1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1167	0
15	1979-08-19	24.21%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1020	4	Keflavik IF	1206	0
16	1979-05-12	24.79%	@ KA Akureyri	954	3	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1136	1
17	1979-06-10	24.94%	Throttur Reykjavik	1012	2	@ KA Akureyri	996	0
18	1979-08-02	25.91%	Keflavik IF	1195	2	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1171	1
19	1979-07-01	27.58%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1080	3	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1042	1
20	1979-07-09	27.80%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1106	1	IA Akranes	1262	0
21	1979-07-29	28.14%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1125	5	@ Fram Reykjavik	1082	1
22	1979-08-18	28.51%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1210	2	Valur Reykjavik	1360	0
23	1979-07-09	30.38%	Valur Reykjavik	1288	3	@ Keflavik IF	1228	0
24	1979-09-08	35.53%	Throttur Reykjavik	1047	5	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	950	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1979-08-19	59.69	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	1020	24.21%	Keflavik IF	0	1206	47.51%	28.27%
2	1979-07-29	45.97	Vikingur Reykjavik	5	1125	28.14%	@ Fram Reykjavik	1	1082	43.05%	28.81%
3	1979-06-12	42.02	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1150	9.15%	@ Valur Reykjavik	0	1335	64.27%	26.58%
4	1979-09-08	41.65	Fram Reykjavik	2	1081	9.57%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1256	63.69%	26.74%
5	1979-06-16	40.81	KR Reykjavik	2	1037	10.59%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1192	62.36%	27.05%
6	1979-07-09	40.45	Valur Reykjavik	3	1288	30.38%	@ Keflavik IF	0	1228	40.80%	28.82%
7	1979-09-08	39.82	Throttur Reykjavik	5	1047	35.53%	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1	950	35.68%	28.79%
8	1979-06-18	39.45	Keflavik IF	4	1202	43.98%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	1043	27.52%	28.50%
9	1979-06-30	39.34	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1176	12.41%	@ IA Akranes	0	1301	60.09%	27.50%
10	1979-06-27	37.04	@ Throttur Reykjavik	5	1004	38.95%	KR Reykjavik	1	1077	32.23%	28.82%
11	1979-08-16	35.39	KR Reykjavik	2	1073	17.84%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1126	53.85%	28.31%
12	1979-09-14	33.18	KR Reykjavik	2	1105	21.21%	@ Fram Reykjavik	0	1122	50.22%	28.57%
13	1979-05-14	32.57	Fram Reykjavik	3	1023	14.69%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1114	57.39%	27.92%
14	1979-06-10	30.90	Throttur Reykjavik	2	1012	24.94%	@ KA Akureyri	0	996	46.32%	28.74%
15	1979-08-10	29.94	@ KA Akureyri	3	922	19.35%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1	1156	52.89%	27.77%
16	1979-06-19	29.83	@ Fram Reykjavik	3	1064	44.29%	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	0	1097	26.92%	28.79%
17	1979-08-18	28.94	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1210	28.51%	Valur Reykjavik	0	1360	42.94%	28.55%
18	1979-05-12	26.94	@ KA Akureyri	3	954	24.79%	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1	1136	46.90%	28.32%
19	1979-07-01	25.45	Vikingur Reykjavik	3	1080	27.58%	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	1	1042	43.62%	28.80%
20	1979-05-12	25.09	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1144	35.73%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	0	1046	35.48%	28.78%
21	1979-06-23	24.76	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	4	1152	56.82%	Haukar Hafnarfjordur	0	1067	15.18%	27.99%
22	1979-06-16	24.36	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	4	1054	57.16%	KA Akureyri	0	965	14.89%	27.95%
23	1979-06-04	23.89	@ Keflavik IF	4	1182	57.54%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1089	14.56%	27.90%
24	1979-09-08	20.94	Keflavik IF	2	1153	9.31%	@ Valur Reykjavik	1	1334	64.04%	26.64%
25	1979-05-29	19.93	KR Reykjavik	1	1018	14.72%	@ Haukar Hafnarfjordur	0	1109	57.36%	27.92%