1978 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

35 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1967.0

Relegated

Breidablik

7 pts

FH Hafnarfjordur · 10 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

6.95 points above expected

35 points · 28.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Breidablik

5.52 points below expected

7 points · 12.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik Champion	18	17	1	0	35	45	8	+37	28.05	+6.95
2	IA Akranes	18	13	3	2	29	47	13	+34	27.37	+1.63
3	Keflavik IF	18	8	4	6	20	31	25	+6	18.26	+1.74
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	18	8	3	7	19	29	24	+5	19.44	-0.44
5	Vikingur Reykjavik	18	9	1	8	19	27	31	-4	18.14	+0.86
6	Fram Reykjavik	18	7	2	9	16	23	31	-8	16.97	-0.97
7	Throttur Reykjavik	18	4	6	8	14	22	27	-5	13.86	+0.14
8	KA Akureyri	18	3	5	10	11	14	38	-24	10.45	+0.55
9	FH Hafnarfjordur Relegated	18	2	6	10	10	22	37	-15	14.95	-4.95
10	Breidablik Relegated	18	3	1	14	7	19	45	-26	12.52	-5.52

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valur Reykjavik	1389	35	28.05	+6.95	99.9%	15	23	26	28	30	33	36
IA Akranes	1314	29	27.37	+1.63	75.2%	14	22	25	28	29	32	36
Keflavik IF	1131	20	18.26	+1.74	73.6%	5	13	16	18	21	24	31
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1074	19	19.44	-0.44	50.2%	8	14	17	19	22	25	31
Vikingur Reykjavik	1033	19	18.14	+0.86	64.8%	5	12	16	18	21	24	30
Throttur Reykjavik	912	14	13.86	+0.14	57.5%	3	8	11	14	16	20	28
Fram Reykjavik	891	16	16.97	-0.97	44.9%	5	11	15	17	19	23	29
FH Hafnarfjordur	875	10	14.95	-4.95	9.8%	3	9	13	15	17	21	28
Breidablik	859	7	12.52	-5.52	6.5%	0	7	10	12	15	18	28
KA Akureyri	798	11	10.45	+0.55	63.9%	1	5	8	10	13	16	24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRE	FH	FR	IA	IV	KA	KI	TR	VR	VR
Breidablik	—	1-0-1 2.24	0-0-2 2.20	0-0-2 1.15	1-0-1 1.40	1-1-0 3.12	0-0-2 1.83	0-0-2 2.53	0-0-2 0.65	0-0-2 2.02
FH Hafnarfjordur	1-0-1 3.38	—	0-1-1 2.20	0-0-2 0.94	0-0-2 2.35	0-1-1 4.00	1-1-0 2.34	0-2-0 2.90	0-0-2 0.77	0-1-1 1.89
Fram Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.42	1-1-0 3.43	—	0-0-2 1.06	1-0-1 2.13	1-0-1 4.25	0-1-1 2.24	2-0-0 3.39	0-0-2 1.18	0-0-2 2.81
IA Akranes	2-0-0 4.48	2-0-0 4.70	2-0-0 4.58	—	1-1-0 4.54	2-0-0 4.75	1-1-0 4.50	1-1-0 4.66	0-0-2 2.65	2-0-0 4.55
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1-0-1 4.23	2-0-0 3.27	1-0-1 3.50	0-1-1 1.09	—	1-1-0 4.10	1-0-1 3.01	1-1-0 3.83	0-0-2 1.34	1-0-1 3.07
KA Akureyri	0-1-1 2.51	1-1-0 1.63	1-0-1 1.38	0-0-2 0.89	0-1-1 1.52	—	1-0-1 1.61	0-1-1 2.08	0-1-1 0.57	0-0-2 1.77
Keflavik IF	2-0-0 3.80	0-1-1 3.28	1-1-0 3.38	0-1-1 1.13	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 4.02	—	1-1-0 3.57	0-0-2 1.07	2-0-0 2.83
Throttur Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.09	0-2-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.24	0-1-1 0.98	0-1-1 1.80	1-1-0 3.55	0-1-1 2.06	—	0-0-2 0.69	1-0-1 1.88
Valur Reykjavik	2-0-0 5.00	2-0-0 4.87	2-0-0 4.45	2-0-0 2.97	2-0-0 4.29	1-1-0 5.08	2-0-0 4.56	2-0-0 4.96	—	2-0-0 4.30
Vikingur Reykjavik	2-0-0 3.61	1-1-0 3.74	2-0-0 2.81	0-0-2 1.08	1-0-1 2.55	2-0-0 3.86	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 3.74	0-0-2 1.34	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+7.6
Allowed	0.93	-7.4
Differential	0.95	+3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	9.44%	6.67%	6.11%	1.11%	2.22%	32.22%
1	9.44%	2.22%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	0.56%	20.56%
2	6.67%	3.33%	6.67%	3.33%	1.67%	1.67%	23.33%
3	6.11%	3.33%	3.33%	1.11%	—	—	13.89%
4	1.11%	1.67%	1.67%	—	1.11%	—	5.56%
5+	2.22%	0.56%	1.67%	—	—	—	4.44%
Total	32.22%	20.56%	23.33%	13.89%	5.56%	4.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.55	+0.00
SD	1.48	1.48	2.22
CV	0.96	0.96	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	38.89%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	33.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	2.50	-1.44
SD	1.06	1.38	2.01
CV	1.00	0.55	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.06	-0.83
SD	1.40	1.73	2.07
CV	1.14	0.84	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	33.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.72	-0.44
SD	1.36	1.32	1.95
CV	1.07	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	55.56%	16.67%	27.78%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	0.72	+1.89
SD	1.91	0.89	2.08
CV	0.73	1.24	—
Max	7	2	+6
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	11.11%	44.44%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.33	+0.28
SD	1.58	1.08	1.90
CV	0.98	0.81	—
Max	6	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	61.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	2.11	-1.33
SD	1.11	2.14	2.33
CV	1.43	1.01	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	27.78%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.39	+0.33
SD	1.32	1.04	1.91
CV	0.77	0.75	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.50	-0.28
SD	1.31	1.25	1.60
CV	1.07	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	22.22%	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	66.67%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	0.44	+2.06
SD	1.42	0.70	1.21
CV	0.57	1.59	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.72	-0.22
SD	1.38	1.74	2.26
CV	0.92	1.01	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valur Reykjavik	35	28.05	+6.95
2	Keflavik IF	20	18.26	+1.74
3	IA Akranes	29	27.37	+1.63
4	Vikingur Reykjavik	19	18.14	+0.86
5	KA Akureyri	11	10.45	+0.55

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Breidablik	7	12.52	-5.52
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	10	14.95	-4.95
3	Fram Reykjavik	16	16.97	-0.97
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	19	19.44	-0.44
5	Throttur Reykjavik	14	13.86	+0.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	16	May 17 – Aug 19	1 in 449
2	KA Akureyri	2	Jul 15 – Jul 29	1 in 35
3	IA Akranes	8	May 20 – Jun 21	1 in 21
4	Fram Reykjavik	3	May 22 – Jun 2	1 in 8
5	FH Hafnarfjordur	2	Jul 2 – Jul 9	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Breidablik	8	May 20 – Jul 2	1 in 193
2	Throttur Reykjavik	5	Jul 8 – Aug 12	1 in 13
3	Vikingur Reykjavik	3	Jul 2 – Jul 16	1 in 12
4	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	May 27 – Jun 14	1 in 7
5	Fram Reykjavik	3	Aug 20 – Sep 9	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valur Reykjavik	18	May 17 – Sep 10	1 in 15
2	Throttur Reykjavik	3	May 28 – Jun 10	1 in 13
3	Keflavik IF	6	Jul 30 – Sep 9	1 in 13
4	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	Jun 18 – Jul 9	1 in 12
5	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	4	Aug 19 – Sep 9	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Breidablik	9	May 13 – Jul 2	1 in 42
2	FH Hafnarfjordur	8	May 16 – Jun 21	1 in 17
3	IA Akranes	3	Aug 19 – Sep 10	1 in 16
4	Fram Reykjavik	6	Jul 29 – Sep 9	1 in 14
5	Keflavik IF	4	May 16 – Jun 3	1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valur Reykjavik	56.17%	38.59%	4.13%	0.85%	0.19%	0.03%	0.04%	—	—	—
IA Akranes	42.30%	49.16%	6.60%	1.41%	0.29%	0.17%	0.03%	0.04%	—	—
Keflavik IF	0.37%	2.74%	21.67%	21.96%	18.72%	14.43%	10.00%	6.17%	2.96%	0.98%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0.72%	4.76%	31.92%	22.82%	16.66%	10.81%	6.67%	3.49%	1.67%	0.48%
Vikingur Reykjavik	0.31%	2.75%	17.63%	20.57%	19.88%	15.71%	11.03%	7.20%	3.60%	1.32%
Fram Reykjavik	0.09%	1.32%	10.43%	16.28%	17.71%	18.90%	15.48%	10.95%	6.54%	2.30%
Throttur Reykjavik	0.02%	0.28%	2.36%	5.52%	9.24%	13.57%	18.35%	20.58%	18.57%	11.51%
KA Akureyri	—	—	0.26%	0.66%	1.55%	3.30%	6.23%	12.97%	23.95%	51.08%
FH Hafnarfjordur	0.02%	0.36%	4.06%	7.53%	11.12%	15.35%	19.65%	19.57%	14.60%	7.74%
Breidablik	—	0.04%	0.94%	2.40%	4.64%	7.73%	12.52%	19.03%	28.11%	24.59%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+4.44%

No Edge

43.33%17.78%38.89%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.

176 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.01 goals

Neutral

-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.0

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

56%

Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.33/gm

Tight Race

00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.37 * Wild Swing: 5.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.01 * Close: 1.01 to 1.51 * Off: 1.51 to 2.02 * Way Off: 2.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.16 * Several Surprises: 1.16 to 1.59 * Many Surprises: 1.59 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.33 points

Some Luck

03.368

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

Pinpoint

01.263

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.91%

Valur Reykjavik

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

6.51%

Breidablik

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

2.03

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

80%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

97%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

50%

Very Frequent

0%50%100%

Blowouts

Expected

27%

Very Frequent

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.542

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.12

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.72

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Solid Favorites

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.32

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.37

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.121

Well Within Noise

00.1680.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
IA Akranes	100%	—
Valur Reykjavik	100%	—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	97.85%	2.15%
Keflavik IF	96.06%	3.94%
Vikingur Reykjavik	95.08%	4.92%
Fram Reykjavik	91.16%	8.84%
FH Hafnarfjordur	77.66%	22.34%
Throttur Reykjavik	69.92%	30.08%
Breidablik	47.30%	52.70%
KA Akureyri	24.97%	75.03%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1978-05-13	KA Akureyri	D 2-2	1036	885	62.4%	18.6%	19.0%	-3.5	1
1978-05-13	@ Breidablik	D 2-2	885	1036	19.0%	18.6%	62.4%	+3.5	1
1978-05-16	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1073	1015	52.3%	18.8%	28.8%	-45.0	0
1978-05-16	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	1015	1073	28.8%	18.8%	52.3%	+45.0	2
1978-05-16	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	1045	987	52.4%	18.8%	28.8%	-1.8	1
1978-05-16	@ Keflavik IF	D 2-2	987	1045	28.8%	18.8%	52.4%	+1.8	1
1978-05-16	IA Akranes	D 2-2	896	1173	13.7%	18.4%	67.9%	+4.5	1
1978-05-16	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1173	896	67.9%	18.4%	13.7%	-4.5	1
1978-05-17	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1188	978	67.3%	18.5%	14.2%	+21.1	2
1978-05-17	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	978	1188	14.2%	18.5%	67.3%	-21.1	0
1978-05-20	KA Akureyri	D 0-0	989	889	57.2%	18.8%	24.0%	-3.9	2
1978-05-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	889	989	24.0%	18.8%	57.2%	+3.9	2
1978-05-20	Breidablik	W 4-0	1168	1032	61.0%	18.7%	20.4%	+38.2	3
1978-05-20	@ IA Akranes	L 0-4	1032	1168	20.4%	18.7%	61.0%	-38.2	1
1978-05-20	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 2-3	1044	1028	46.8%	18.8%	34.4%	-19.3	1
1978-05-20	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-2	1028	1044	34.4%	18.8%	46.8%	+19.3	2
1978-05-21	Valur Reykjavik	L 2-5	1060	1209	25.1%	18.7%	56.1%	-25.6	2
1978-05-21	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 5-2	1209	1060	56.1%	18.7%	25.1%	+25.7	4
1978-05-22	Throttur Reykjavik	W 4-1	957	901	52.1%	18.8%	29.1%	+33.6	2
1978-05-22	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-4	901	957	29.1%	18.8%	52.1%	-33.6	1
1978-05-22	IA Akranes	L 0-5	893	1206	11.3%	18.2%	70.5%	-27.5	2
1978-05-22	@ KA Akureyri	W 5-0	1206	893	70.5%	18.2%	11.3%	+27.5	5
1978-05-27	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	994	990	45.2%	18.9%	35.9%	-39.5	1
1978-05-27	@ Breidablik	W 2-0	990	994	35.9%	18.9%	45.2%	+39.5	4
1978-05-27	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1234	865	76.0%	17.8%	6.2%	+3.5	7
1978-05-27	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	865	1234	6.2%	17.8%	76.0%	-3.5	2
1978-05-27	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-0	1048	985	52.9%	18.8%	28.3%	+38.8	4
1978-05-27	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	985	1048	28.3%	18.8%	52.9%	-38.8	2
1978-05-27	Keflavik IF	W 2-1	1234	1024	67.3%	18.5%	14.2%	+7.3	6
1978-05-27	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	1024	1234	14.2%	18.5%	67.3%	-7.3	1
1978-05-28	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 2-0	867	1035	23.1%	18.7%	58.2%	+49.7	3
1978-05-28	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1035	867	58.2%	18.7%	23.1%	-49.7	2
1978-06-02	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1030	862	63.9%	18.6%	17.5%	+9.3	6
1978-06-02	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	862	1030	17.5%	18.6%	63.9%	-9.3	2
1978-06-03	IA Akranes	L 1-7	946	1237	12.7%	18.3%	69.0%	-30.0	2
1978-06-03	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 7-1	1237	946	69.0%	18.3%	12.7%	+30.0	9
1978-06-03	Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	1017	917	57.2%	18.8%	24.0%	-3.9	2
1978-06-03	@ Keflavik IF	D 0-0	917	1017	24.0%	18.8%	57.2%	+3.9	4
1978-06-04	Breidablik	W 3-1	985	955	48.8%	18.8%	32.4%	+25.9	4
1978-06-04	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-3	955	985	32.4%	18.8%	48.8%	-25.9	1
1978-06-10	Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	1267	1039	68.6%	18.4%	13.0%	+7.1	11
1978-06-10	@ IA Akranes	L 0-1	1039	1267	13.0%	18.4%	68.6%	-7.1	6
1978-06-10	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 2-2	921	1087	23.3%	18.7%	58.0%	+2.8	5
1978-06-10	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	1087	921	58.0%	18.7%	23.3%	-2.8	5
1978-06-11	Keflavik IF	L 0-2	929	1013	33.0%	18.8%	48.2%	-30.4	1
1978-06-11	@ Breidablik	W 2-0	1013	929	48.2%	18.8%	33.0%	+30.4	4
1978-06-11	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-1	1242	916	74.2%	18.0%	7.8%	+4.1	8
1978-06-11	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 1-2	916	1242	7.8%	18.0%	74.2%	-4.1	2
1978-06-13	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1084	1246	23.7%	18.7%	57.6%	-33.3	5
1978-06-13	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-0	1246	1084	57.6%	18.7%	23.7%	+33.3	10
1978-06-14	Fram Reykjavik	L 2-3	912	1032	28.4%	18.8%	52.8%	-12.8	2
1978-06-14	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-2	1032	912	52.8%	18.8%	28.4%	+12.8	8
1978-06-14	Breidablik	W 1-0	1050	898	62.5%	18.6%	18.8%	+10.0	7
1978-06-14	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	898	1050	18.8%	18.6%	62.5%	-10.0	1
1978-06-14	KA Akureyri	L 2-3	1043	852	65.9%	18.5%	15.6%	-26.7	4
1978-06-14	@ Keflavik IF	W 3-2	852	1043	15.6%	18.5%	65.9%	+26.7	4
1978-06-14	IA Akranes	L 2-4	1011	1274	14.6%	18.4%	67.0%	-11.5	4
1978-06-14	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 4-2	1274	1011	67.0%	18.4%	14.6%	+11.5	13
1978-06-15	Throttur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1279	924	75.5%	17.8%	6.7%	+3.8	12
1978-06-15	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	924	1279	6.7%	17.8%	75.5%	-3.8	5
1978-06-17	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1045	999	50.8%	18.8%	30.4%	-23.2	8
1978-06-17	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 1-0	999	1045	30.4%	18.8%	50.8%	+23.2	6
1978-06-18	Keflavik IF	W 3-0	1286	1017	71.2%	18.2%	10.5%	+16.0	15
1978-06-18	@ IA Akranes	L 0-3	1017	1286	10.5%	18.2%	71.2%	-15.9	4
1978-06-18	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 1-1	879	1060	21.7%	18.7%	59.7%	+4.1	5
1978-06-18	@ KA Akureyri	D 1-1	1060	879	59.7%	18.7%	21.7%	-4.1	8
1978-06-18	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 2-2	920	899	47.5%	18.8%	33.6%	-1.0	6
1978-06-18	@ Throttur Reykjavik	D 2-2	899	920	33.6%	18.8%	47.5%	+1.1	3
1978-06-19	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-4	888	1283	7.4%	17.8%	74.7%	-9.6	1
1978-06-19	@ Breidablik	W 4-1	1283	888	74.7%	17.8%	7.4%	+9.6	14
1978-06-21	Vikingur Reykjavik	D 3-3	900	1023	28.2%	18.8%	53.0%	+1.6	4
1978-06-21	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 3-3	1023	900	53.0%	18.8%	28.2%	-1.6	7
1978-06-21	IA Akranes	L 2-3	1056	1302	16.0%	18.5%	65.6%	-7.7	8
1978-06-21	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 3-2	1302	1056	65.6%	18.5%	16.0%	+7.7	17
1978-06-21	Fram Reykjavik	D 1-1	1001	1022	41.8%	18.9%	39.4%	-0.2	5
1978-06-21	@ Keflavik IF	D 1-1	1022	1001	39.4%	18.9%	41.8%	+0.2	9
1978-06-22	KA Akureyri	W 5-0	1293	883	77.4%	17.6%	5.0%	+12.5	16
1978-06-22	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-5	883	1293	5.0%	17.6%	77.4%	-12.5	5
1978-06-23	Breidablik	W 4-2	919	879	50.1%	18.8%	31.1%	+22.4	8
1978-06-23	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 2-4	879	919	31.1%	18.8%	50.1%	-22.4	1
1978-06-26	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 2-5	871	1021	24.9%	18.7%	56.3%	-25.5	5
1978-06-26	@ KA Akureyri	W 5-2	1021	871	56.3%	18.7%	24.9%	+25.5	9
1978-07-01	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-1	1022	1049	40.9%	18.9%	40.2%	+17.9	11
1978-07-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 1-2	1049	1022	40.2%	18.9%	40.9%	-17.9	8
1978-07-01	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1310	1305	45.3%	18.9%	35.8%	-21.0	17
1978-07-01	@ IA Akranes	W 1-0	1305	1310	35.8%	18.9%	45.3%	+21.0	18
1978-07-01	Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	845	941	31.4%	18.8%	49.8%	+2.1	6
1978-07-01	@ KA Akureyri	D 0-0	941	845	49.8%	18.8%	31.4%	-2.1	9
1978-07-02	FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-4	856	902	38.3%	18.9%	42.9%	-65.3	1
1978-07-02	@ Breidablik	W 4-0	902	856	42.9%	18.9%	38.3%	+65.3	6
1978-07-02	Keflavik IF	L 0-1	1046	1001	50.8%	18.8%	30.4%	-23.2	9
1978-07-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1001	1046	30.4%	18.8%	50.8%	+23.2	7
1978-07-08	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-2	1289	939	75.2%	17.9%	6.9%	+3.5	19
1978-07-08	@ IA Akranes	L 2-3	939	1289	6.9%	17.9%	75.2%	-3.5	9
1978-07-08	Breidablik	L 0-3	847	791	52.1%	18.8%	29.0%	-65.1	6
1978-07-08	@ KA Akureyri	W 3-0	791	847	29.0%	18.8%	52.1%	+65.1	3
1978-07-08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-1	1023	1031	43.7%	18.9%	37.5%	-20.3	9
1978-07-08	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1031	1023	37.5%	18.9%	43.7%	+20.3	10
1978-07-09	Keflavik IF	W 2-0	967	1024	36.7%	18.8%	44.5%	+38.9	8
1978-07-09	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	L 0-2	1024	967	44.5%	18.8%	36.7%	-38.9	7
1978-07-09	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1040	1326	13.0%	18.3%	68.7%	-19.5	11
1978-07-09	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1326	1040	68.7%	18.3%	13.0%	+19.5	20
1978-07-15	IA Akranes	L 0-3	856	1292	5.9%	17.6%	76.4%	-9.2	3
1978-07-15	@ Breidablik	W 3-0	1292	856	76.4%	17.6%	5.9%	+9.2	21
1978-07-15	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	1051	985	53.3%	18.8%	27.9%	-22.9	10
1978-07-15	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-1	985	1051	27.9%	18.8%	53.3%	+22.9	9
1978-07-15	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	782	1006	17.7%	18.6%	63.7%	+28.9	8
1978-07-15	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-1	1006	782	63.7%	18.6%	17.7%	-28.9	8
1978-07-15	Fram Reykjavik	L 0-1	936	1020	32.9%	18.8%	48.2%	-16.1	9
1978-07-15	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 1-0	1020	936	48.2%	18.8%	32.9%	+16.1	13
1978-07-16	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1345	1003	74.9%	17.9%	7.1%	+11.0	22
1978-07-16	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-3	1003	1345	7.1%	17.9%	74.9%	-11.0	9
1978-07-22	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-2	977	1028	37.5%	18.9%	43.7%	-33.8	8
1978-07-22	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1028	977	43.7%	18.9%	37.5%	+33.8	12
1978-07-24	Throttur Reykjavik	W 1-0	992	920	54.1%	18.8%	27.2%	+13.7	11
1978-07-24	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	920	992	27.2%	18.8%	54.1%	-13.7	9
1978-07-25	Breidablik	W 2-0	1036	847	65.8%	18.5%	15.7%	+15.9	15
1978-07-25	@ Fram Reykjavik	L 0-2	847	1036	15.7%	18.5%	65.8%	-16.0	3
1978-07-25	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	1008	1357	9.4%	18.1%	72.5%	-9.9	9
1978-07-25	@ Keflavik IF	W 2-0	1357	1008	72.5%	18.1%	9.4%	+9.9	24
1978-07-29	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1301	943	75.6%	17.8%	6.6%	+7.0	23
1978-07-29	@ IA Akranes	L 0-2	943	1301	6.6%	17.8%	75.6%	-7.0	8
1978-07-29	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	811	1052	16.3%	18.5%	65.2%	+80.9	10
1978-07-29	@ KA Akureyri	L 0-3	1052	811	65.2%	18.5%	16.3%	-80.9	15
1978-07-29	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 1-0	1366	1062	73.2%	18.1%	8.7%	+4.9	26
1978-07-29	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1062	1366	8.7%	18.1%	73.2%	-4.9	12
1978-07-30	Vikingur Reykjavik	L 1-2	831	1006	22.3%	18.7%	59.0%	-10.9	3
1978-07-30	@ Breidablik	W 2-1	1006	831	59.0%	18.7%	22.3%	+10.9	13
1978-07-30	Keflavik IF	L 1-2	906	998	32.0%	18.8%	49.2%	-14.8	9
1978-07-30	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 2-1	998	906	49.2%	18.8%	32.0%	+14.8	11
1978-08-01	IA Akranes	L 0-2	971	1308	10.0%	18.1%	71.8%	-10.5	15
1978-08-01	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 2-0	1308	971	71.8%	18.1%	10.0%	+10.5	25
1978-08-02	Valur Reykjavik	L 0-2	936	1371	6.0%	17.6%	76.4%	-6.4	8
1978-08-02	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 2-0	1371	936	76.4%	17.6%	6.0%	+6.4	28
1978-08-02	Breidablik	W 3-1	1013	820	66.0%	18.5%	15.5%	+13.6	13
1978-08-02	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	820	1013	15.5%	18.5%	66.0%	-13.6	3
1978-08-02	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	1016	892	59.8%	18.7%	21.5%	+11.2	15
1978-08-02	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	892	1016	21.5%	18.7%	59.8%	-11.2	10
1978-08-11	Keflavik IF	L 0-5	881	1026	25.5%	18.7%	55.8%	-57.2	10
1978-08-11	@ KA Akureyri	W 5-0	1026	881	55.8%	18.7%	25.5%	+57.2	15
1978-08-12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W 2-0	806	1057	15.5%	18.5%	66.0%	+56.4	5
1978-08-12	@ Breidablik	L 0-2	1057	806	66.0%	18.5%	15.5%	-56.4	12
1978-08-12	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 5-0	1319	1028	72.5%	18.2%	9.4%	+23.0	27
1978-08-12	@ IA Akranes	L 0-5	1028	1319	9.4%	18.2%	72.5%	-23.1	15
1978-08-12	Valur Reykjavik	L 1-3	891	1378	4.5%	17.3%	78.1%	-4.2	9
1978-08-12	@ Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1378	891	78.1%	17.3%	4.5%	+4.2	30
1978-08-13	FH Hafnarfjordur	D 4-4	961	930	48.9%	18.8%	32.3%	-0.9	16
1978-08-13	@ Fram Reykjavik	D 4-4	930	961	32.3%	18.8%	48.9%	+0.9	9
1978-08-19	KA Akureyri	W 6-2	1001	824	64.7%	18.6%	16.7%	+22.6	14
1978-08-19	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 2-6	824	1001	16.7%	18.6%	64.7%	-22.6	10
1978-08-19	IA Akranes	D 2-2	1084	1342	15.0%	18.4%	66.6%	+4.2	16
1978-08-19	@ Keflavik IF	D 2-2	1342	1084	66.6%	18.4%	15.0%	-4.3	28
1978-08-19	Breidablik	W 4-2	1382	863	80.4%	16.9%	2.8%	+2.3	32
1978-08-19	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 2-4	863	1382	2.8%	16.9%	80.4%	-2.3	5
1978-08-20	Throttur Reykjavik	D 0-0	931	887	50.6%	18.8%	30.6%	-2.3	10
1978-08-20	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	D 0-0	887	931	30.6%	18.8%	50.6%	+2.3	10
1978-08-20	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-0	1005	960	50.6%	18.8%	30.5%	+41.4	17
1978-08-20	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-3	960	1005	30.5%	18.8%	50.6%	-41.4	16
1978-08-22	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D 0-0	1338	1023	73.6%	18.1%	8.3%	-8.4	29
1978-08-22	@ IA Akranes	D 0-0	1023	1338	8.3%	18.1%	73.6%	+8.4	15
1978-08-22	Valur Reykjavik	D 0-0	801	1384	2.7%	16.7%	80.6%	+10.2	11
1978-08-22	@ KA Akureyri	D 0-0	1384	801	80.6%	16.7%	2.7%	-10.2	33
1978-08-23	Throttur Reykjavik	L 1-4	860	889	40.7%	18.9%	40.5%	-44.3	5
1978-08-23	@ Breidablik	W 4-1	889	860	40.5%	18.9%	40.7%	+44.3	12
1978-08-23	Keflavik IF	L 1-3	919	1088	22.9%	18.7%	58.4%	-19.3	16
1978-08-23	@ Fram Reykjavik	W 3-1	1088	919	58.4%	18.7%	22.9%	+19.3	18
1978-08-24	FH Hafnarfjordur	W 1-0	1046	929	59.1%	18.7%	22.2%	+11.5	19
1978-08-24	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	L 0-1	929	1046	22.2%	18.7%	59.1%	-11.5	10
1978-08-31	Throttur Reykjavik	W 3-0	1032	933	57.0%	18.8%	24.2%	+34.0	17
1978-08-31	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 0-3	933	1032	24.2%	18.8%	57.0%	-34.0	12
1978-09-07	KA Akureyri	W 1-0	899	811	55.9%	18.8%	25.3%	+12.9	14
1978-09-07	@ Throttur Reykjavik	L 0-1	811	899	25.3%	18.8%	55.9%	-12.9	11
1978-09-09	Breidablik	L 1-3	917	816	57.3%	18.8%	23.9%	-42.4	10
1978-09-09	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	W 3-1	816	917	23.9%	18.8%	57.3%	+42.4	7
1978-09-09	Fram Reykjavik	W 3-2	1066	899	63.8%	18.6%	17.6%	+8.4	19
1978-09-09	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	L 2-3	899	1066	17.6%	18.6%	63.8%	-8.4	16
1978-09-09	Vikingur Reykjavik	W 3-1	1107	1058	51.3%	18.8%	29.9%	+24.3	20
1978-09-09	@ Keflavik IF	L 1-3	1058	1107	29.9%	18.8%	51.3%	-24.3	19
1978-09-10	IA Akranes	W 1-0	1374	1329	50.7%	18.8%	30.5%	+15.1	35
1978-09-10	@ Valur Reykjavik	L 0-1	1329	1374	30.5%	18.8%	50.7%	-15.1	29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1978-08-12	15.53%	@ Breidablik	806	2	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1057	0
2	1978-06-14	15.60%	KA Akureyri	852	3	@ Keflavik IF	1043	2
3	1978-07-29	16.28%	@ KA Akureyri	811	3	Fram Reykjavik	1052	0
4	1978-07-15	17.73%	@ KA Akureyri	782	1	FH Hafnarfjordur	1006	0
5	1978-05-28	23.10%	@ Throttur Reykjavik	867	2	Vikingur Reykjavik	1035	0
6	1978-09-09	23.93%	Breidablik	816	3	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	917	1
7	1978-07-15	27.86%	Keflavik IF	985	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1051	1
8	1978-05-16	28.84%	Vikingur Reykjavik	1015	2	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1073	0
9	1978-07-08	29.05%	Breidablik	791	3	@ KA Akureyri	847	0
10	1978-07-02	30.37%	Keflavik IF	1001	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1046	0
11	1978-06-17	30.42%	Vikingur Reykjavik	999	1	@ Fram Reykjavik	1045	0
12	1978-05-20	34.37%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1028	3	@ Keflavik IF	1044	2
13	1978-07-01	35.81%	Valur Reykjavik	1305	1	@ IA Akranes	1310	0
14	1978-05-27	35.90%	Fram Reykjavik	990	2	@ Breidablik	994	0
15	1978-07-09	36.70%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	967	2	Keflavik IF	1024	0
16	1978-07-08	37.49%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	1031	1	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	1023	0
17	1978-08-23	40.48%	Throttur Reykjavik	889	4	@ Breidablik	860	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-07-29	80.95	@ KA Akureyri	3	811	16.28%	Fram Reykjavik	0	1052	65.22%	18.49%
2	1978-07-02	65.29	FH Hafnarfjordur	4	902	42.89%	@ Breidablik	0	856	38.26%	18.85%
3	1978-07-08	65.10	Breidablik	3	791	29.05%	@ KA Akureyri	0	847	52.14%	18.81%
4	1978-08-11	57.21	Keflavik IF	5	1026	55.77%	@ KA Akureyri	0	881	25.49%	18.74%
5	1978-08-12	56.43	@ Breidablik	2	806	15.53%	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1057	66.00%	18.46%
6	1978-05-28	49.73	@ Throttur Reykjavik	2	867	23.10%	Vikingur Reykjavik	0	1035	58.21%	18.69%
7	1978-05-16	44.99	Vikingur Reykjavik	2	1015	28.84%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1073	52.35%	18.81%
8	1978-08-23	44.29	Throttur Reykjavik	4	889	40.48%	@ Breidablik	1	860	40.66%	18.85%
9	1978-09-09	42.45	Breidablik	3	816	23.93%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	917	57.33%	18.75%
10	1978-08-20	41.44	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	3	1005	50.65%	Fram Reykjavik	0	960	30.52%	18.82%
11	1978-05-27	39.54	Fram Reykjavik	2	990	35.90%	@ Breidablik	0	994	45.25%	18.85%
12	1978-07-09	38.94	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	2	967	36.70%	Keflavik IF	0	1024	44.46%	18.84%
13	1978-05-27	38.82	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	1048	52.94%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	985	28.26%	18.80%
14	1978-05-20	38.18	@ IA Akranes	4	1168	60.96%	Breidablik	0	1032	20.36%	18.68%
15	1978-08-31	34.00	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	3	1032	57.04%	Throttur Reykjavik	0	933	24.20%	18.75%
16	1978-07-22	33.83	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2	1028	43.67%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	0	977	37.48%	18.85%
17	1978-05-22	33.59	@ Fram Reykjavik	4	957	52.06%	Throttur Reykjavik	1	901	29.13%	18.81%
18	1978-06-13	33.33	Valur Reykjavik	3	1246	57.62%	@ IBV Vestmannaeyjar	0	1084	23.67%	18.70%
19	1978-06-11	30.42	Keflavik IF	2	1013	48.22%	@ Breidablik	0	929	32.95%	18.82%
20	1978-06-03	29.97	IA Akranes	7	1237	69.00%	@ FH Hafnarfjordur	1	946	12.68%	18.32%
21	1978-07-15	28.86	@ KA Akureyri	1	782	17.73%	FH Hafnarfjordur	0	1006	63.72%	18.55%
22	1978-05-22	27.52	IA Akranes	5	1206	70.45%	@ KA Akureyri	0	893	11.32%	18.23%
23	1978-06-14	26.73	KA Akureyri	3	852	15.60%	@ Keflavik IF	2	1043	65.87%	18.53%
24	1978-06-04	25.94	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	3	985	48.81%	Breidablik	1	955	32.35%	18.84%
25	1978-05-21	25.65	Valur Reykjavik	5	1209	56.11%	@ Vikingur Reykjavik	2	1060	25.15%	18.73%