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1977 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

28 points · 7th Title

Last Title: 1975.0

Relegated

Thor Akureyri

6 pts

KR Reykjavik · 10 pts

Biggest Overachiever

IA Akranes

4.22 points above expected

28 points · 23.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Thor Akureyri

7.75 points below expected

6 points · 13.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes Champion 18 13 2 3 28 35 13 +22 23.78 +4.22
2 Valur Reykjavik 18 11 5 2 27 38 18 +20 24.88 +2.12
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 9 3 6 21 27 18 +9 17.08 +3.92
4 Keflavik IF 18 8 4 6 20 29 28 +1 18.39 +1.61
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 6 8 4 20 22 23 -1 17.93 +2.07
6 Breidablik 18 7 4 7 18 27 26 +1 17.41 +0.59
7 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 6 7 16 26 30 -4 13.51 +2.49
8 Fram Reykjavik 18 4 6 8 14 24 35 -11 18.02 -4.02
9 KR Reykjavik Relegated 18 3 4 11 10 24 34 -10 15.26 -5.26
10 Thor Akureyri Relegated 18 2 2 14 6 21 48 -27 13.75 -7.75

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1201 27 24.88 +2.12 78.8% 12 19 23 25 27 30 35
IA Akranes 1175 28 23.78 +4.22 92.4% 10 18 22 24 26 29 34
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1031 21 17.08 +3.92 89.7% 4 11 15 17 19 23 30
Keflavik IF 990 20 18.39 +1.61 72.4% 5 13 16 18 21 24 30
Breidablik 974 18 17.41 +0.59 62.4% 4 12 15 17 20 23 30
Vikingur Reykjavik 949 20 17.93 +2.07 76.5% 5 12 16 18 20 24 30
FH Hafnarfjordur 902 16 13.51 +2.49 81.8% 0 8 11 13 16 19 27
Fram Reykjavik 891 14 18.02 -4.02 15.5% 5 12 16 18 20 24 32
KR Reykjavik 861 10 15.26 -5.26 8.7% 2 10 13 15 18 21 28
Thor Akureyri 743 6 13.75 -7.75 1.2% 2 8 11 14 16 19 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TA VR VR
Breidablik —
1-1-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.63
1-0-1
1.62
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
1.50
0-1-1
2.86
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
1.33
1-0-1
2.15
1-1-0
2.27
0-1-1
1.92
2-0-0
3.18
0-1-1
1.04
0-1-1
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.66
 —
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
2.99
0-2-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.60
1-1-0
3.58
0-2-0
1.43
1-0-1
2.61
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.87
1-1-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.52
 —
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.62
1-0-1
4.15
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
3.72
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.67
 —
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
3.66
0-0-2
1.68
0-2-0
2.45
KR Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
3.21
0-2-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.64
0-0-2
2.46
 —
0-0-2
2.33
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
1.23
0-1-1
2.34
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
3.56
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.16
 —
2-0-0
3.29
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
2.68
Thor Akureyri
1-0-1
2.28
0-0-2
2.31
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
2.20
 —
0-0-2
1.44
0-1-1
2.18
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
4.48
0-2-0
4.08
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
4.28
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.08
 —
1-1-0
3.92
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
1.77
0-2-0
3.03
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
1.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +10.6
Allowed 0.90 -6.4
Differential 0.95 +4.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%6.11%6.67%4.44%1.67%0.56%27.22%
16.11%11.11%5.56%2.22%3.89%—28.89%
26.67%5.56%3.33%3.33%1.67%0.56%21.11%
34.44%2.22%3.33%2.22%0.56%—12.78%
41.67%3.89%1.67%0.56%—0.56%8.33%
5+0.56%—0.56%—0.56%—1.67%
Total27.22%28.89%21.11%12.78%8.33%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.93
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.44 +0.06
SD 1.42 1.04 1.76
CV 0.95 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—16.67%5.56%—11.11%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.67 -0.22
SD 1.65 1.33 1.83
CV 1.14 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%—16.67%—44.44%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.94 -0.61
SD 1.08 1.43 1.79
CV 0.81 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—33.33%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
316.67%—————16.67%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total61.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.72 +1.22
SD 1.30 1.18 1.86
CV 0.67 1.63 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
1———————
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.50 0.91 1.95
CV 1.00 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
1—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.89 -0.56
SD 1.64 1.23 1.98
CV 1.23 0.65 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.20 1.34 1.73
CV 0.74 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%11.11%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
2———16.67%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.67 -1.50
SD 0.86 1.50 1.82
CV 0.73 0.56 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
311.11%——11.11%5.56%—27.78%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total50.00%22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.00 +1.11
SD 1.37 1.28 1.57
CV 0.65 1.28 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—11.11%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%22.22%————33.33%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.28 -0.06
SD 1.22 1.27 1.80
CV 0.99 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 28 23.78 +4.22
2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 21 17.08 +3.92
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 16 13.51 +2.49
4 Valur Reykjavik 27 24.88 +2.12
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 20 17.93 +2.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Thor Akureyri 6 13.75 -7.75
2 KR Reykjavik 10 15.26 -5.26
3 Fram Reykjavik 14 18.02 -4.02
4 Breidablik 18 17.41 +0.59
5 Keflavik IF 20 18.39 +1.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 5 May 14 – Jun 6 1 in 27
2 Thor Akureyri 2 May 25 – May 28 1 in 14
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Jun 13 – Jun 18 1 in 14
4 IA Akranes 4 Aug 6 – Aug 23 1 in 11
5 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 4 – Jun 8 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 8 Jul 2 – Aug 23 1 in 94
2 KR Reykjavik 6 Jun 22 – Aug 4 1 in 67
3 IA Akranes 2 Jun 22 – Jul 3 1 in 16
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 7 – May 11 1 in 15
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 May 15 – Jun 4 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FH Hafnarfjordur 6 Jul 10 – Aug 23 1 in 71
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 7 May 8 – Jun 13 1 in 32
3 Valur Reykjavik 16 May 14 – Aug 25 1 in 25
4 Keflavik IF 5 Jun 19 – Jul 10 1 in 10
5 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 Jun 22 – Jul 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 9 May 25 – Jul 6 1 in 122
2 Thor Akureyri 13 May 31 – Aug 23 1 in 38
3 KR Reykjavik 9 Jun 13 – Aug 4 1 in 31
4 Valur Reykjavik 3 Aug 14 – Aug 25 1 in 27
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 6 Jul 11 – Aug 25 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
IA Akranes36.14%36.08%14.37%6.64%3.50%1.63%1.01%0.48%0.08%0.07%
Valur Reykjavik53.26%28.38%10.31%4.43%1.97%0.83%0.58%0.19%0.05%—
IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.32%5.16%11.77%14.44%14.91%14.25%13.09%11.16%8.52%5.38%
Keflavik IF3.02%8.41%16.38%16.63%14.83%13.23%10.43%7.91%6.10%3.06%
Vikingur Reykjavik2.06%6.78%14.26%15.50%14.95%13.50%12.21%9.81%6.84%4.09%
Breidablik1.62%5.69%12.47%13.61%14.51%14.33%13.08%11.25%8.17%5.27%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.08%0.61%1.87%3.35%5.49%8.10%11.79%16.97%22.51%29.23%
Fram Reykjavik2.06%6.62%12.45%14.82%14.75%14.66%12.63%10.06%7.57%4.38%
KR Reykjavik0.39%1.58%4.25%6.92%9.92%12.05%14.55%16.53%17.15%16.66%
Thor Akureyri0.05%0.69%1.87%3.66%5.17%7.42%10.63%15.64%23.01%31.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
40.00%24.44%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
IA Akranes, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.75 * Some Luck: 2.75 to 4.12 * Lucky: 4.12 to 5.5 * Wild Swing: 5.5 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.39 * Close: 1.39 to 2.08 * Off: 2.08 to 2.77 * Way Off: 2.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.93 * A Surprise: 0.93 to 1.49 * Several Surprises: 1.49 to 2.05 * Many Surprises: 2.05 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.94 points
Some Luck
03.439
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.734
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.42%
IA Akranes
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.25%
Thor Akureyri
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.62
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
93%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.38
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.77
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.135
Well Within Noise
00.1780.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.95% 0.05%
IA Akranes 99.85% 0.15%
Keflavik IF 90.84% 9.16%
Vikingur Reykjavik 89.07% 10.93%
Fram Reykjavik 88.05% 11.95%
Breidablik 86.56% 13.44%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 86.10% 13.90%
KR Reykjavik 66.19% 33.81%
FH Hafnarfjordur 48.26% 51.74%
Thor Akureyri 45.13% 54.87%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1977-05-07 Valur Reykjavik W 4-3 943 1092 21.4% 25.5% 53.1% +17.3 2
1977-05-07 @ Breidablik L 3-4 1092 943 53.1% 25.5% 21.4% -17.3 0
1977-05-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 1038 914 55.2% 25.4% 19.3% -38.7 0
1977-05-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 914 1038 19.3% 25.4% 55.2% +38.7 2
1977-05-07 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1040 925 54.3% 25.5% 20.2% +9.1 2
1977-05-07 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 925 1040 20.2% 25.5% 54.3% -9.1 0
1977-05-07 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 964 960 40.9% 25.9% 33.1% +12.1 2
1977-05-07 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 960 964 33.1% 25.9% 40.9% -12.1 0
1977-05-08 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 957 882 49.8% 25.7% 24.4% -2.1 1
1977-05-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 882 957 24.4% 25.7% 49.8% +2.1 1
1977-05-10 Breidablik D 0-0 953 961 39.2% 25.9% 34.9% -0.4 3
1977-05-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 961 953 34.9% 25.9% 39.2% +0.4 3
1977-05-10 Keflavik IF L 0-2 916 977 31.9% 25.9% 42.2% -24.7 0
1977-05-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 977 916 42.2% 25.9% 31.9% +24.7 4
1977-05-11 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 884 999 25.1% 25.7% 49.2% -29.8 1
1977-05-11 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 999 884 49.2% 25.7% 25.1% +29.8 2
1977-05-11 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 948 955 39.4% 25.9% 34.7% -0.4 1
1977-05-11 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 955 948 34.7% 25.9% 39.4% +0.4 2
1977-05-11 IA Akranes L 0-2 1075 1050 43.8% 25.9% 30.3% -31.5 0
1977-05-11 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 1050 1075 30.3% 25.9% 43.8% +31.5 4
1977-05-14 Thor Akureyri W 3-1 1029 947 50.7% 25.7% 23.6% +16.9 4
1977-05-14 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 947 1029 23.6% 25.7% 50.7% -16.9 1
1977-05-14 Breidablik W 2-0 1081 961 54.8% 25.5% 19.7% +16.9 6
1977-05-14 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 961 1081 19.7% 25.5% 54.8% -16.9 3
1977-05-14 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1001 1044 34.3% 25.9% 39.8% -13.1 4
1977-05-14 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1044 1001 39.8% 25.9% 34.3% +13.1 2
1977-05-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 855 953 27.1% 25.8% 47.1% +33.5 3
1977-05-15 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-2 953 855 47.1% 25.8% 27.1% -33.5 3
1977-05-16 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 955 892 48.5% 25.8% 25.7% -2.1 3
1977-05-16 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 892 955 25.7% 25.8% 48.5% +2.1 1
1977-05-23 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 919 1057 22.6% 25.6% 51.8% -10.0 3
1977-05-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1057 919 51.8% 25.6% 22.6% +10.0 4
1977-05-25 Keflavik IF L 1-2 888 988 26.9% 25.7% 47.4% -10.8 3
1977-05-25 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 988 888 47.4% 25.7% 26.9% +10.8 6
1977-05-25 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1046 953 52.0% 25.6% 22.4% -19.4 4
1977-05-25 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 953 1046 22.4% 25.6% 52.0% +19.4 5
1977-05-25 IA Akranes W 3-1 931 1098 19.6% 25.4% 55.0% +33.4 3
1977-05-25 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1098 931 55.0% 25.4% 19.6% -33.4 6
1977-05-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 1067 894 59.8% 25.1% 15.2% +6.8 6
1977-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 894 1067 15.2% 25.1% 59.8% -6.8 1
1977-05-28 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 944 964 37.5% 25.9% 36.5% -14.8 3
1977-05-28 @ Breidablik W 1-0 964 944 36.5% 25.9% 37.5% +14.8 5
1977-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1065 877 61.0% 24.9% 14.1% +6.7 8
1977-05-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 877 1065 14.1% 24.9% 61.0% -6.7 3
1977-05-28 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 999 1027 36.4% 25.9% 37.7% +0.1 7
1977-05-28 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1027 999 37.7% 25.9% 36.4% -0.1 5
1977-05-31 Breidablik L 0-2 871 929 32.1% 25.9% 42.0% -24.8 3
1977-05-31 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 929 871 42.0% 25.9% 32.1% +24.8 5
1977-05-31 IA Akranes L 1-2 1027 1071 34.0% 25.9% 40.1% -13.0 5
1977-05-31 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1071 1027 40.1% 25.9% 34.0% +13.0 10
1977-05-31 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 979 1074 27.5% 25.8% 46.8% -22.0 5
1977-05-31 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1074 979 46.8% 25.8% 27.5% +22.0 8
1977-06-04 Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 954 1014 32.0% 25.9% 42.1% +37.4 7
1977-06-04 @ Breidablik L 1-4 1014 954 42.1% 25.9% 32.0% -37.4 5
1977-06-04 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1084 972 54.0% 25.5% 20.4% -2.8 11
1977-06-04 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 972 1084 20.4% 25.5% 54.0% +2.8 6
1977-06-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 999 909 51.7% 25.6% 22.7% +10.0 9
1977-06-04 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 909 999 22.7% 25.6% 51.7% -10.0 3
1977-06-04 Thor Akureyri W 6-0 887 957 30.6% 25.9% 43.5% +87.1 3
1977-06-04 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-6 957 887 43.5% 25.9% 30.6% -87.1 5
1977-06-06 FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1096 846 65.5% 24.2% 10.3% +5.0 10
1977-06-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 846 1096 10.3% 24.2% 65.5% -5.0 3
1977-06-07 Keflavik IF W 1-0 975 1009 35.5% 25.9% 38.6% +15.1 8
1977-06-07 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1009 975 38.6% 25.9% 35.5% -15.1 9
1977-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 992 974 42.7% 25.9% 31.4% -15.4 7
1977-06-08 @ Breidablik W 2-1 974 992 31.4% 25.9% 42.7% +15.5 5
1977-06-13 KR Reykjavik W 5-4 841 989 21.5% 25.5% 53.1% +17.0 5
1977-06-13 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 4-5 989 841 53.1% 25.5% 21.5% -17.0 5
1977-06-13 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 899 870 44.3% 25.9% 29.9% +11.8 5
1977-06-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 870 899 29.9% 25.9% 44.3% -11.8 5
1977-06-13 IA Akranes L 0-4 994 1082 28.4% 25.8% 45.8% -42.9 9
1977-06-13 @ Keflavik IF W 4-0 1082 994 45.8% 25.8% 28.4% +42.9 13
1977-06-13 Breidablik W 2-0 990 976 42.2% 25.9% 31.9% +24.7 10
1977-06-13 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 976 990 31.9% 25.9% 42.2% -24.7 7
1977-06-14 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 976 1101 24.1% 25.6% 50.3% +2.4 6
1977-06-14 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1101 976 50.3% 25.6% 24.1% -2.4 11
1977-06-16 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 911 972 31.7% 25.9% 42.4% +30.7 7
1977-06-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-2 972 911 42.4% 25.9% 31.7% -30.7 5
1977-06-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 4-0 1098 1015 50.9% 25.7% 23.4% +36.9 13
1977-06-17 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1015 1098 23.4% 25.7% 50.9% -36.9 10
1977-06-18 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 858 858 40.3% 25.9% 33.8% -14.8 5
1977-06-18 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 858 858 33.8% 25.9% 40.3% +14.8 7
1977-06-19 Keflavik IF D 1-1 952 951 40.4% 25.9% 33.7% -0.5 8
1977-06-19 @ Breidablik D 1-1 951 952 33.7% 25.9% 40.4% +0.5 10
1977-06-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 3-0 1124 941 60.6% 25.0% 14.4% +18.8 15
1977-06-19 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 941 1124 14.4% 25.0% 60.6% -18.8 7
1977-06-19 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 942 979 35.1% 25.9% 39.0% +0.3 6
1977-06-19 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 979 942 39.0% 25.9% 35.1% -0.3 7
1977-06-22 IA Akranes W 1-0 951 1143 17.4% 25.1% 57.4% +21.3 10
1977-06-22 @ Breidablik L 0-1 1143 951 57.4% 25.1% 17.4% -21.3 15
1977-06-22 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 923 872 46.9% 25.8% 27.3% +26.8 9
1977-06-22 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-4 872 923 27.3% 25.8% 46.9% -26.8 7
1977-06-22 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 942 978 35.2% 25.9% 38.9% -26.6 6
1977-06-22 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 978 942 38.9% 25.9% 35.2% +26.6 12
1977-06-23 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 843 978 22.9% 25.6% 51.6% +2.4 6
1977-06-23 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 978 843 51.6% 25.6% 22.9% -2.4 8
1977-06-23 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1135 952 60.6% 25.0% 14.4% -4.5 14
1977-06-23 @ Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 952 1135 14.4% 25.0% 60.6% +4.5 11
1977-06-25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 0-0 1005 949 47.6% 25.8% 26.7% -1.9 13
1977-06-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 0-0 949 1005 26.7% 25.8% 47.6% +1.9 10
1977-07-02 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 956 915 45.8% 25.8% 28.4% +17.5 13
1977-07-02 @ Keflavik IF L 2-4 915 956 28.4% 25.8% 45.8% -17.5 6
1977-07-02 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1003 845 58.4% 25.2% 16.4% +6.9 15
1977-07-02 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 845 1003 16.4% 25.2% 58.4% -6.9 6
1977-07-03 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 972 951 43.2% 25.9% 30.9% -27.0 10
1977-07-03 @ Breidablik W 3-1 951 972 30.9% 25.9% 43.2% +27.0 12
1977-07-03 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 976 846 55.9% 25.4% 18.7% -48.0 8
1977-07-03 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 846 976 18.7% 25.4% 55.9% +48.0 9
1977-07-03 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 1122 1131 39.1% 25.9% 35.0% -35.3 15
1977-07-03 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 1131 1122 35.0% 25.9% 39.1% +35.3 16
1977-07-05 Keflavik IF L 1-2 839 974 22.9% 25.6% 51.5% -9.5 6
1977-07-05 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 974 839 51.5% 25.6% 22.9% +9.5 15
1977-07-06 Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-4 894 1010 25.0% 25.7% 49.4% -25.0 9
1977-07-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-1 1010 894 49.4% 25.7% 25.0% +25.0 17
1977-07-06 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 978 928 46.9% 25.8% 27.2% +31.8 14
1977-07-06 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-3 928 978 27.2% 25.8% 46.9% -31.8 8
1977-07-06 IA Akranes L 0-2 898 1087 17.7% 25.2% 57.1% -15.4 6
1977-07-06 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 1087 898 57.1% 25.2% 17.7% +15.4 17
1977-07-09 Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1102 829 66.9% 23.9% 9.2% +12.4 19
1977-07-09 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 829 1102 9.2% 23.9% 66.9% -12.4 6
1977-07-10 FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 983 869 54.3% 25.5% 20.2% -3.2 16
1977-07-10 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 869 983 20.2% 25.5% 54.3% +3.2 10
1977-07-10 Breidablik L 1-2 882 945 31.6% 25.9% 42.6% -12.3 6
1977-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 945 882 42.6% 25.9% 31.6% +12.3 12
1977-07-11 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1035 896 56.6% 25.3% 18.0% -21.0 17
1977-07-11 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 896 1035 18.0% 25.3% 56.6% +21.0 10
1977-07-15 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1166 1010 58.3% 25.2% 16.5% +14.5 18
1977-07-15 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1010 1166 16.5% 25.2% 58.3% -14.6 14
1977-07-23 IA Akranes D 0-0 872 1114 13.6% 24.7% 61.8% +4.7 11
1977-07-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 0-0 1114 872 61.8% 24.7% 13.6% -4.7 20
1977-07-23 Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 996 1014 37.8% 25.9% 36.3% -0.1 15
1977-07-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1014 996 36.3% 25.9% 37.8% +0.1 18
1977-07-23 Breidablik L 1-3 817 958 22.3% 25.5% 52.2% -16.1 6
1977-07-23 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-1 958 817 52.2% 25.5% 22.3% +16.1 14
1977-07-24 Keflavik IF W 3-2 917 980 31.6% 25.9% 42.6% +14.6 12
1977-07-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 980 917 42.6% 25.9% 31.6% -14.6 16
1977-07-25 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 870 1180 9.6% 23.9% 66.5% -12.9 6
1977-07-25 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1180 870 66.5% 23.9% 9.6% +12.9 20
1977-08-03 Breidablik W 3-0 1193 974 63.4% 24.6% 12.0% +15.9 22
1977-08-03 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 974 1193 12.0% 24.6% 63.4% -15.9 14
1977-08-04 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-2 857 996 22.6% 25.6% 51.9% -9.4 6
1977-08-04 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 996 857 51.9% 25.6% 22.6% +9.4 17
1977-08-06 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 958 876 50.7% 25.7% 23.6% -2.2 15
1977-08-06 @ Breidablik D 1-1 876 958 23.6% 25.7% 50.7% +2.2 12
1977-08-06 Fram Reykjavik W 4-2 1110 932 60.2% 25.0% 14.8% +10.3 22
1977-08-06 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 932 1110 14.8% 25.0% 60.2% -10.2 12
1977-08-06 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 965 1014 33.5% 25.9% 40.6% +43.1 18
1977-08-06 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1014 965 40.6% 25.9% 33.5% -43.1 18
1977-08-06 Thor Akureyri W 4-2 1209 801 73.5% 21.9% 4.6% +3.3 24
1977-08-06 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 801 1209 4.6% 21.9% 73.5% -3.3 6
1977-08-12 KR Reykjavik L 2-3 797 848 33.2% 25.9% 40.9% -12.1 6
1977-08-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-2 848 797 40.9% 25.9% 33.2% +12.1 8
1977-08-14 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 879 1213 8.6% 23.5% 67.9% +5.4 13
1977-08-14 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1213 879 67.9% 23.5% 8.6% -5.4 25
1977-08-14 Breidablik L 1-4 922 956 35.5% 25.9% 38.6% -32.8 12
1977-08-14 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 956 922 38.6% 25.9% 35.5% +32.8 17
1977-08-14 Keflavik IF W 3-2 1005 1008 39.8% 25.9% 34.3% +12.4 19
1977-08-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 2-3 1008 1005 34.3% 25.9% 39.8% -12.4 18
1977-08-15 IA Akranes L 0-3 971 1120 21.4% 25.5% 53.1% -26.2 18
1977-08-15 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1120 971 53.1% 25.5% 21.4% +26.2 24
1977-08-20 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 988 944 46.2% 25.8% 28.0% -1.4 18
1977-08-20 @ Breidablik D 1-1 944 988 28.0% 25.8% 46.2% +1.5 19
1977-08-20 Keflavik IF W 4-1 1146 996 57.7% 25.2% 17.0% +18.3 26
1977-08-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 996 1146 17.0% 25.2% 57.7% -18.3 18
1977-08-20 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 860 884 36.9% 25.9% 37.2% +0.0 9
1977-08-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 884 860 37.2% 25.9% 36.9% -0.0 14
1977-08-20 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 785 1017 14.3% 24.8% 60.9% -24.2 6
1977-08-20 @ Thor Akureyri W 4-0 1017 785 60.9% 24.8% 14.3% +24.2 21
1977-08-21 Fram Reykjavik D 3-3 1207 889 69.4% 23.3% 7.3% -3.5 26
1977-08-21 @ Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 889 1207 7.3% 23.3% 69.4% +3.5 13
1977-08-23 Thor Akureyri W 5-2 884 761 55.2% 25.4% 19.4% +17.7 16
1977-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-5 761 884 19.4% 25.4% 55.2% -17.7 6
1977-08-23 IA Akranes L 0-1 1042 1164 24.2% 25.6% 50.1% -10.6 21
1977-08-23 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1164 1042 50.1% 25.6% 24.2% +10.6 28
1977-08-23 Breidablik W 3-2 978 987 39.0% 25.9% 35.0% +12.6 20
1977-08-23 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 987 978 35.0% 25.9% 39.0% -12.6 18
1977-08-24 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 892 860 44.7% 25.9% 29.5% -1.2 14
1977-08-24 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 860 892 29.5% 25.9% 44.7% +1.2 10
1977-08-25 Valur Reykjavik D 3-3 946 1204 12.6% 24.5% 62.9% +2.8 20
1977-08-25 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 3-3 1204 946 62.9% 24.5% 12.6% -2.8 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-06-22 17.41% @ Breidablik 951 1 IA Akranes 1143 0
2 1977-07-11 18.01% Fram Reykjavik 896 1 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1035 0
3 1977-07-03 18.72% FH Hafnarfjordur 846 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 976 1
4 1977-05-07 19.31% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 914 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 1038 0
5 1977-05-25 19.63% @ Thor Akureyri 931 3 IA Akranes 1098 1
6 1977-05-07 21.44% @ Breidablik 943 4 Valur Reykjavik 1092 3
7 1977-06-13 21.46% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 841 5 KR Reykjavik 989 4
8 1977-05-25 22.36% Vikingur Reykjavik 953 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 1046 0
9 1977-05-15 27.11% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 855 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 953 0
10 1977-05-11 30.34% IA Akranes 1050 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 1075 0
11 1977-06-04 30.64% @ KR Reykjavik 887 6 Thor Akureyri 957 0
12 1977-07-03 30.95% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 951 3 @ Breidablik 972 1
13 1977-06-08 31.38% KR Reykjavik 974 2 @ Breidablik 992 1
14 1977-07-24 31.57% @ Fram Reykjavik 917 3 Keflavik IF 980 2
15 1977-06-16 31.69% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 911 2 KR Reykjavik 972 0
16 1977-06-04 32.00% @ Breidablik 954 4 Fram Reykjavik 1014 1
17 1977-08-06 33.51% @ Keflavik IF 965 3 Vikingur Reykjavik 1014 0
18 1977-06-18 33.75% FH Hafnarfjordur 858 2 @ Thor Akureyri 858 1
19 1977-07-03 34.98% Valur Reykjavik 1131 4 @ IA Akranes 1122 1
20 1977-06-07 35.48% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 975 1 Keflavik IF 1009 0
21 1977-05-28 36.54% Thor Akureyri 964 1 @ Breidablik 944 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-06-04 87.09 @ KR Reykjavik 6 887 30.64% Thor Akureyri 0 957 43.51% 25.85%
2 1977-07-03 47.96 FH Hafnarfjordur 4 846 18.72% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 976 55.88% 25.40%
3 1977-08-06 43.08 @ Keflavik IF 3 965 33.51% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1014 40.59% 25.90%
4 1977-06-13 42.89 IA Akranes 4 1082 45.83% @ Keflavik IF 0 994 28.38% 25.79%
5 1977-05-07 38.73 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 914 19.31% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 1038 55.25% 25.44%
6 1977-06-04 37.41 @ Breidablik 4 954 32.00% Fram Reykjavik 1 1014 42.13% 25.87%
7 1977-06-17 36.89 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1098 50.89% Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1015 23.43% 25.68%
8 1977-07-03 35.30 Valur Reykjavik 4 1131 34.98% @ IA Akranes 1 1122 39.10% 25.92%
9 1977-05-15 33.53 @ FH Hafnarfjordur 2 855 27.11% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 953 47.14% 25.75%
10 1977-05-25 33.38 @ Thor Akureyri 3 931 19.63% IA Akranes 1 1098 55.02% 25.35%
11 1977-08-14 32.84 Breidablik 4 956 38.57% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 922 35.51% 25.91%
12 1977-07-06 31.82 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 978 46.95% Fram Reykjavik 0 928 27.24% 25.81%
13 1977-05-11 31.52 IA Akranes 2 1050 30.34% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1075 43.78% 25.88%
14 1977-06-16 30.73 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 911 31.69% KR Reykjavik 0 972 42.44% 25.87%
15 1977-05-11 29.80 Fram Reykjavik 3 999 49.23% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 884 25.10% 25.68%
16 1977-07-03 26.98 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 951 30.95% @ Breidablik 1 972 43.16% 25.89%
17 1977-06-22 26.84 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 923 46.94% FH Hafnarfjordur 1 872 27.25% 25.81%
18 1977-06-22 26.65 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 978 38.87% @ KR Reykjavik 0 942 35.22% 25.91%
19 1977-08-15 26.21 IA Akranes 3 1120 53.11% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 971 21.41% 25.48%
20 1977-07-06 25.04 Vikingur Reykjavik 4 1010 49.35% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 1 894 24.98% 25.67%
21 1977-05-31 24.84 Breidablik 2 929 42.04% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 871 32.08% 25.88%
22 1977-05-10 24.73 Keflavik IF 2 977 42.22% @ KR Reykjavik 0 916 31.90% 25.87%
23 1977-06-13 24.72 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 2 990 42.23% Breidablik 0 976 31.87% 25.90%
24 1977-08-20 24.25 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1017 60.93% @ Thor Akureyri 0 785 14.29% 24.78%
25 1977-05-31 22.05 Valur Reykjavik 2 1074 46.75% @ Thor Akureyri 0 979 27.49% 25.77%