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1980 Úrvalsdeild Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

28 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1978.0

Relegated

Throtter Reykjavik

9 pts

Keflavik IF · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

6.47 points above expected

25 points · 18.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

7.05 points below expected

9 points · 16.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik Champion 18 13 2 3 28 43 16 +27 23.45 +4.55
2 Fram Reykjavik 18 11 3 4 25 23 19 +4 18.53 +6.47
3 IA Akranes 18 8 4 6 20 29 20 +9 21.39 -1.39
4 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 7 6 5 20 24 23 +1 18.18 +1.82
5 Breidablik 18 8 1 9 17 25 22 +3 14.99 +2.01
6 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 5 7 6 17 26 28 -2 19.87 -2.87
7 KR Reykjavik 18 6 4 8 16 16 25 -9 17.04 -1.04
8 FH Hafnarfjordur 18 5 5 8 15 24 34 -10 12.63 +2.37
9 Keflavik IF Relegated 18 3 7 8 13 16 26 -10 17.86 -4.86
10 Throttur Reykjavik 18 2 5 11 9 13 26 -13 16.05 -7.05

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valur Reykjavik 1286 28 23.45 +4.55 93.5% 9 18 21 24 26 29 35
IA Akranes 1186 20 21.39 -1.39 39.4% 8 16 19 21 24 27 33
Fram Reykjavik 1161 25 18.53 +6.47 97.4% 7 13 16 19 21 24 32
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1140 17 19.87 -2.87 25.4% 5 14 17 20 22 26 33
Vikingur Reykjavik 1132 20 18.18 +1.82 74.0% 6 12 16 18 21 24 32
Breidablik 1090 17 14.99 +2.01 76.0% 2 9 13 15 17 21 28
KR Reykjavik 1073 16 17.04 -1.04 45.2% 4 11 15 17 20 23 31
Keflavik IF 1065 13 17.86 -4.86 10.7% 4 12 15 18 20 24 32
Throttur Reykjavik 1022 9 16.05 -7.05 2.8% 4 10 14 16 18 22 29
FH Hafnarfjordur 1014 15 12.63 +2.37 80.0% 2 7 10 13 15 18 25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRE FH FR IA IV KR KI TR VR VR
Breidablik —
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.82
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.69
0-0-2
2.38
2-0-0
2.40
0-1-1
1.66
1-0-1
2.16
FH Hafnarfjordur
0-0-2
2.40
 —
0-1-1
1.67
2-0-0
1.47
0-2-0
1.65
1-0-1
2.13
0-1-1
1.88
1-0-1
2.32
1-0-1
1.44
0-1-1
1.80
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.29
1-1-0
3.83
 —
1-0-1
2.16
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.06
1-1-0
2.76
IA Akranes
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
4.04
1-0-1
3.33
 —
1-1-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.35
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
3.35
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1-0-1
3.63
0-2-0
3.86
0-0-2
3.11
0-1-1
2.51
 —
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.29
0-0-2
2.09
1-1-0
2.99
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.80
1-0-1
3.37
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.39
 —
2-0-0
2.54
0-1-1
2.98
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
2.55
Keflavik IF
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.62
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.01
0-1-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.95
 —
0-2-0
3.06
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.83
Throttur Reykjavik
0-0-2
3.09
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.06
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.50
0-2-0
2.43
 —
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.37
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
3.85
1-0-1
4.08
1-0-1
3.44
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.40
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.98
 —
1-1-0
3.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.70
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.66
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
1.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +5.4
Allowed 0.54 -8.0
Differential 0.79 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%11.67%3.89%3.89%2.78%0.56%26.11%
111.67%15.56%6.67%5.00%0.56%—39.44%
23.89%6.67%4.44%2.22%—0.56%17.78%
33.89%5.00%2.22%———11.11%
42.78%0.56%——1.11%—4.44%
5+0.56%—0.56%———1.11%
Total26.11%39.44%17.78%11.11%4.44%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.84
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%—16.67%——38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.22 +0.17
SD 1.14 1.17 1.65
CV 0.82 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%33.33%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.89 -0.56
SD 1.19 1.18 1.65
CV 0.89 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———11.11%—16.67%
133.33%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—55.56%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%22.22%—5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.06 +0.22
SD 0.96 1.55 2.10
CV 0.75 1.47 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
322.22%5.56%————27.78%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 1.29 1.02 2.12
CV 0.80 0.92 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
111.11%27.78%5.56%———44.44%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.56 -0.11
SD 1.29 1.65 1.91
CV 0.90 1.06 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%—11.11%—5.56%38.89%
122.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%11.11%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.39 -0.50
SD 1.02 1.38 1.89
CV 1.15 0.99 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%—5.56%5.56%—38.89%
1—27.78%11.11%———38.89%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%61.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.44 -0.56
SD 0.90 0.92 1.29
CV 1.01 0.64 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
15.56%22.22%11.11%11.11%——50.00%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.44 -0.72
SD 0.67 1.04 1.18
CV 0.93 0.72 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 0.89 +1.50
SD 1.85 0.90 2.15
CV 0.78 1.01 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
116.67%22.22%5.56%11.11%——55.56%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.28 +0.06
SD 0.84 1.07 1.47
CV 0.63 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 25 18.53 +6.47
2 Valur Reykjavik 28 23.45 +4.55
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 15 12.63 +2.37
4 Breidablik 17 14.99 +2.01
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 20 18.18 +1.82

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 9 16.05 -7.05
2 Keflavik IF 13 17.86 -4.86
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 17 19.87 -2.87
4 IA Akranes 20 21.39 -1.39
5 KR Reykjavik 16 17.04 -1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 4 May 10 – Jun 4 1 in 73
2 Valur Reykjavik 6 Aug 11 – Sep 14 1 in 46
3 Breidablik 3 Jul 10 – Jul 26 1 in 37
4 FH Hafnarfjordur 2 Aug 9 – Aug 17 1 in 28
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 3 Jul 21 – Aug 5 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 7 – Jul 20 1 in 26
2 Throttur Reykjavik 3 May 18 – Jun 4 1 in 18
3 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Jun 8 – Jun 21 1 in 11
4 IA Akranes 2 Aug 28 – Sep 7 1 in 10
5 Vikingur Reykjavik 2 Aug 24 – Aug 27 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 9 Jun 15 – Aug 16 1 in 70
2 Fram Reykjavik 7 May 10 – Jun 21 1 in 22
3 Breidablik 4 Jul 10 – Aug 6 1 in 12
4 IA Akranes 6 Jun 9 – Jul 20 1 in 10
5 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 Aug 27 – Sep 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 8 Jun 9 – Aug 5 1 in 40
2 Throttur Reykjavik 9 Jul 20 – Sep 12 1 in 25
3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 6 Jul 19 – Aug 23 1 in 20
4 IA Akranes 3 Jun 5 – Jun 14 1 in 9
5 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jul 9 – Jul 20 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valur Reykjavik49.75%22.11%11.45%6.89%4.30%2.90%1.37%0.73%0.38%0.12%
Fram Reykjavik5.97%10.55%13.67%14.59%13.73%12.62%10.75%8.87%6.27%2.98%
IA Akranes21.37%24.01%18.03%12.85%8.47%6.51%4.06%2.84%1.40%0.46%
Vikingur Reykjavik4.57%9.43%12.27%13.53%14.24%12.96%12.33%9.56%7.39%3.72%
Breidablik0.74%1.99%4.08%6.29%8.89%11.14%14.07%16.97%18.69%17.14%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar9.93%15.56%16.91%15.17%12.62%10.50%8.13%6.01%3.48%1.69%
KR Reykjavik2.83%5.55%7.33%9.70%11.73%13.28%14.17%14.40%12.60%8.41%
FH Hafnarfjordur0.08%0.29%0.95%1.92%2.81%5.24%7.94%12.64%21.73%46.40%
Keflavik IF3.44%7.02%9.91%11.93%13.94%13.43%13.34%11.90%9.89%5.20%
Throttur Reykjavik1.32%3.49%5.40%7.13%9.27%11.42%13.84%16.08%18.17%13.88%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Slight Edge
41.11%24.44%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Valur Reykjavik, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.81 * Some Luck: 2.81 to 4.22 * Lucky: 4.22 to 5.62 * Wild Swing: 5.62 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.22 * Off: 2.22 to 2.96 * Way Off: 2.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.96 * A Surprise: 0.96 to 1.54 * Several Surprises: 1.54 to 2.11 * Many Surprises: 2.11 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.00 points
Some Luck
03.519
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.854
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.42%
Fram Reykjavik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.84%
Throttur Reykjavik
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.31
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.29
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.77
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.043
Well Within Noise
00.1790.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valur Reykjavik 99.50% 0.50%
IA Akranes 98.14% 1.86%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 94.83% 5.17%
Fram Reykjavik 90.75% 9.25%
Vikingur Reykjavik 88.89% 11.11%
Keflavik IF 84.91% 15.09%
KR Reykjavik 78.99% 21.01%
Throttur Reykjavik 67.95% 32.05%
Breidablik 64.17% 35.83%
FH Hafnarfjordur 31.87% 68.13%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1980-05-10 IA Akranes W 2-0 1108 1182 31.8% 25.5% 42.6% +19.4 2
1980-05-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1182 1108 42.6% 25.5% 31.8% -19.4 0
1980-05-10 Breidablik W 1-0 1158 1030 57.1% 24.8% 18.1% +5.2 2
1980-05-10 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1030 1158 18.1% 24.8% 57.1% -5.2 0
1980-05-11 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1103 1124 39.2% 25.6% 35.2% +8.9 2
1980-05-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 0-1 1124 1103 35.2% 25.6% 39.2% -8.9 0
1980-05-12 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1140 1109 46.1% 25.5% 28.4% -0.9 1
1980-05-12 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1109 1140 28.4% 25.5% 46.1% +0.9 1
1980-05-12 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1179 1036 58.6% 24.6% 16.9% +17.5 2
1980-05-12 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1036 1179 16.9% 24.6% 58.6% -17.5 0
1980-05-17 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1018 1139 26.0% 25.3% 48.7% -6.6 0
1980-05-17 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1139 1018 48.7% 25.3% 26.0% +6.6 3
1980-05-17 Vikingur Reykjavik W 1-0 1162 1110 48.8% 25.4% 25.8% +7.0 2
1980-05-17 @ IA Akranes L 0-1 1110 1162 25.8% 25.4% 48.8% -7.0 1
1980-05-17 Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 1115 1197 30.8% 25.5% 43.7% -22.0 0
1980-05-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1197 1115 43.7% 25.5% 30.8% +22.0 4
1980-05-18 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1025 1112 30.1% 25.5% 44.4% +10.0 2
1980-05-18 @ Breidablik L 1-2 1112 1025 44.4% 25.5% 30.1% -10.0 2
1980-05-18 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1128 1164 37.0% 25.6% 37.4% +9.3 4
1980-05-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1164 1128 37.4% 25.6% 37.0% -9.3 2
1980-05-24 IA Akranes L 1-2 1154 1169 40.0% 25.6% 34.4% -9.2 2
1980-05-24 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-1 1169 1154 34.4% 25.6% 40.0% +9.2 4
1980-05-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1102 1137 37.2% 25.6% 37.2% -9.3 2
1980-05-24 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1137 1102 37.2% 25.6% 37.2% +9.3 6
1980-05-26 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1146 1093 48.8% 25.4% 25.8% -11.5 3
1980-05-26 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 1093 1146 25.8% 25.4% 48.8% +11.5 2
1980-05-27 Breidablik W 3-2 1219 1035 62.1% 24.1% 13.9% +3.7 6
1980-05-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 1035 1219 13.9% 24.1% 62.1% -3.7 2
1980-05-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1103 1012 53.3% 25.1% 21.6% -1.2 2
1980-05-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1012 1103 21.6% 25.1% 53.3% +1.2 1
1980-06-04 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 1146 1222 31.5% 25.5% 43.0% +10.4 8
1980-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1222 1146 43.0% 25.5% 31.5% -10.4 6
1980-06-04 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1145 1093 48.8% 25.4% 25.8% +7.0 4
1980-06-04 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-1 1093 1145 25.8% 25.4% 48.8% -7.0 2
1980-06-05 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1032 1134 28.2% 25.4% 46.4% -6.7 2
1980-06-05 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1134 1032 46.4% 25.4% 28.2% +6.7 5
1980-06-05 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1179 1013 60.6% 24.3% 15.1% -23.0 4
1980-06-05 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 1013 1179 15.1% 24.3% 60.6% +23.0 3
1980-06-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1105 1102 42.5% 25.6% 31.9% -10.3 2
1980-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1102 1105 31.9% 25.6% 42.5% +10.3 4
1980-06-07 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 7-2 1212 1152 49.7% 25.4% 24.9% +20.8 8
1980-06-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-7 1152 1212 24.9% 25.4% 49.7% -20.8 4
1980-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 1036 1095 33.8% 25.6% 40.6% -8.1 3
1980-06-08 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-1 1095 1036 40.6% 25.6% 33.8% +8.1 4
1980-06-08 Breidablik L 1-2 1112 1025 52.8% 25.2% 22.0% -11.7 4
1980-06-08 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 2-1 1025 1112 22.0% 25.2% 52.8% +11.7 4
1980-06-09 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1141 1157 39.9% 25.6% 34.5% -0.3 6
1980-06-09 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1157 1141 34.5% 25.6% 39.9% +0.3 9
1980-06-09 IA Akranes D 1-1 1086 1156 32.4% 25.6% 42.1% +0.5 3
1980-06-09 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1156 1086 42.1% 25.6% 32.4% -0.5 5
1980-06-14 FH Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1037 1028 43.2% 25.6% 31.2% +29.0 6
1980-06-14 @ Breidablik L 0-4 1028 1037 31.2% 25.6% 43.2% -29.0 3
1980-06-14 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1155 1103 48.8% 25.4% 25.8% -1.2 6
1980-06-14 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 1103 1155 25.8% 25.4% 48.8% +1.2 5
1980-06-14 Keflavik IF W 4-0 1131 1140 40.8% 25.6% 33.6% +30.7 6
1980-06-14 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 0-4 1140 1131 33.6% 25.6% 40.8% -30.7 6
1980-06-15 Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1157 1100 49.3% 25.4% 25.3% -1.2 10
1980-06-15 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1100 1157 25.3% 25.4% 49.3% +1.2 5
1980-06-16 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1086 1233 23.2% 25.1% 51.8% -10.4 3
1980-06-16 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1233 1086 51.8% 25.1% 23.2% +10.4 10
1980-06-21 Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 999 1156 22.1% 25.0% 53.0% -10.0 3
1980-06-21 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 3-1 1156 999 53.0% 25.0% 22.1% +10.0 12
1980-06-21 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1102 1162 33.6% 25.6% 40.8% +0.4 6
1980-06-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1162 1102 40.8% 25.6% 33.6% -0.3 7
1980-06-22 Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1110 1076 46.5% 25.5% 28.0% -0.9 7
1980-06-22 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1076 1110 28.0% 25.5% 46.5% +0.9 4
1980-06-22 IA Akranes L 0-3 1243 1154 53.1% 25.2% 21.8% -34.1 10
1980-06-22 @ Valur Reykjavik W 3-0 1154 1243 21.8% 25.2% 53.1% +34.1 8
1980-06-23 Breidablik W 1-0 1104 1066 47.1% 25.5% 27.4% +7.3 7
1980-06-23 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1066 1104 27.4% 25.5% 47.1% -7.3 6
1980-07-05 Breidablik W 3-1 1188 1058 57.3% 24.8% 18.0% +8.5 10
1980-07-05 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 1058 1188 18.0% 24.8% 57.3% -8.5 6
1980-07-05 FH Hafnarfjordur D 4-4 1162 989 61.2% 24.2% 14.6% -1.4 8
1980-07-05 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 4-4 989 1162 14.6% 24.2% 61.2% +1.4 4
1980-07-05 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1209 1109 54.3% 25.1% 20.7% +5.8 12
1980-07-05 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 1109 1209 20.7% 25.1% 54.3% -5.8 7
1980-07-06 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 1077 1102 38.6% 25.6% 35.8% -9.5 4
1980-07-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1102 1077 35.8% 25.6% 38.6% +9.5 8
1980-07-07 KR Reykjavik L 1-4 1166 1111 49.1% 25.4% 25.5% -26.8 12
1980-07-07 @ Fram Reykjavik W 4-1 1111 1166 25.5% 25.4% 49.1% +26.8 9
1980-07-09 Throttur Reykjavik L 0-2 990 1067 31.4% 25.5% 43.1% -15.4 4
1980-07-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 2-0 1067 990 43.1% 25.5% 31.4% +15.4 6
1980-07-09 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 1111 1215 28.0% 25.4% 46.6% +0.9 9
1980-07-09 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 1-1 1215 1111 46.6% 25.4% 28.0% -0.9 13
1980-07-10 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1050 1139 29.8% 25.5% 44.7% +17.5 8
1980-07-10 @ Breidablik L 1-3 1139 1050 44.7% 25.5% 29.8% -17.5 12
1980-07-10 IA Akranes D 1-1 1103 1196 29.3% 25.4% 45.3% +0.8 8
1980-07-10 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1196 1103 45.3% 25.4% 29.3% -0.8 11
1980-07-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1138 1160 39.0% 25.6% 35.4% -15.7 9
1980-07-10 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 1160 1138 35.4% 25.6% 39.0% +15.7 10
1980-07-19 IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1067 1176 27.4% 25.4% 47.2% +21.1 10
1980-07-19 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1176 1067 47.2% 25.4% 27.4% -21.2 10
1980-07-20 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 975 1214 14.9% 23.9% 61.1% +13.4 6
1980-07-20 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1214 975 61.1% 23.9% 14.9% -13.4 13
1980-07-20 Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1196 1121 51.4% 25.3% 23.3% +23.1 13
1980-07-20 @ IA Akranes L 0-4 1121 1196 23.3% 25.3% 51.4% -23.1 12
1980-07-20 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 1122 1083 47.2% 25.5% 27.3% -1.1 10
1980-07-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 0-0 1083 1122 27.3% 25.5% 47.2% +1.1 7
1980-07-21 Keflavik IF W 2-1 1112 1104 43.2% 25.6% 31.2% +7.7 11
1980-07-21 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1104 1112 31.2% 25.6% 43.2% -7.7 8
1980-07-26 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1155 1098 49.3% 25.4% 25.3% -11.6 10
1980-07-26 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 1-0 1098 1155 25.3% 25.4% 49.3% +11.7 14
1980-07-26 Breidablik L 0-1 1084 1088 41.4% 25.6% 33.0% -10.1 7
1980-07-26 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 1088 1084 33.0% 25.6% 41.4% +10.1 12
1980-07-27 KR Reykjavik W 5-0 1201 1121 52.0% 25.2% 22.8% +27.9 15
1980-07-27 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-5 1121 1201 22.8% 25.2% 52.0% -27.9 10
1980-07-28 FH Hafnarfjordur D 2-2 1096 988 55.1% 25.0% 19.9% -1.4 9
1980-07-28 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 988 1096 19.9% 25.0% 55.1% +1.4 7
1980-07-28 IA Akranes W 3-0 1120 1219 28.6% 25.4% 46.0% +30.0 13
1980-07-28 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-3 1219 1120 46.0% 25.4% 28.6% -30.0 13
1980-07-31 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 2-2 1189 1143 48.0% 25.5% 26.6% -0.8 14
1980-07-31 @ IA Akranes D 2-2 1143 1189 26.6% 25.5% 48.0% +0.8 11
1980-08-05 Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-1 989 1150 21.7% 24.9% 53.4% -6.1 7
1980-08-05 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1150 989 53.4% 24.9% 21.7% +6.0 15
1980-08-05 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1093 1095 41.9% 25.6% 32.5% +8.4 12
1980-08-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1095 1093 32.5% 25.6% 41.9% -8.4 9
1980-08-06 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 1098 1228 24.9% 25.2% 49.9% +1.4 13
1980-08-06 @ Breidablik D 0-0 1228 1098 49.9% 25.2% 24.9% -1.4 16
1980-08-06 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 1110 1074 46.8% 25.5% 27.7% +12.1 16
1980-08-06 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1074 1110 27.7% 25.5% 46.8% -12.1 7
1980-08-09 IA Akranes W 1-0 983 1188 17.6% 24.4% 57.9% +13.5 9
1980-08-09 @ FH Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1188 983 57.9% 24.4% 17.6% -13.5 14
1980-08-10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1062 1144 30.7% 25.5% 43.8% +0.6 8
1980-08-10 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1144 1062 43.8% 25.5% 30.7% -0.7 12
1980-08-11 Breidablik W 2-1 1086 1100 40.2% 25.6% 34.2% +8.2 11
1980-08-11 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1100 1086 34.2% 25.6% 40.2% -8.2 13
1980-08-11 Fram Reykjavik W 4-0 1227 1122 54.8% 25.0% 20.2% +20.5 18
1980-08-11 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-4 1122 1227 20.2% 25.0% 54.8% -20.5 16
1980-08-12 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 1156 1102 49.1% 25.4% 25.5% -0.9 16
1980-08-12 @ Vikingur Reykjavik D 2-2 1102 1156 25.5% 25.4% 49.1% +0.9 13
1980-08-16 Vikingur Reykjavik L 2-3 1092 1155 33.2% 25.6% 41.2% -7.6 13
1980-08-16 @ Breidablik W 3-2 1155 1092 41.2% 25.6% 33.2% +7.6 18
1980-08-16 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-0 1174 1062 55.5% 24.9% 19.5% +15.2 16
1980-08-16 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1062 1174 19.5% 24.9% 55.5% -15.2 8
1980-08-16 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 1143 1248 27.9% 25.4% 46.7% -14.0 12
1980-08-16 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar W 2-0 1248 1143 46.7% 25.4% 27.9% +14.0 20
1980-08-17 FH Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1103 997 54.8% 25.0% 20.2% -12.1 13
1980-08-17 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-1 997 1103 20.2% 25.0% 54.8% +12.1 11
1980-08-18 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1102 1094 43.0% 25.6% 31.4% +8.2 18
1980-08-18 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1094 1102 31.4% 25.6% 43.0% -8.2 11
1980-08-23 Breidablik L 0-1 1009 1084 31.6% 25.5% 42.8% -8.2 11
1980-08-23 @ FH Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1084 1009 42.8% 25.5% 31.6% +8.2 15
1980-08-23 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1086 1129 36.0% 25.6% 38.4% +0.1 12
1980-08-23 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 1129 1086 38.4% 25.6% 36.0% -0.1 13
1980-08-23 IA Akranes L 0-3 1090 1190 28.5% 25.4% 46.0% -20.7 13
1980-08-23 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-0 1190 1090 46.0% 25.4% 28.5% +20.7 18
1980-08-24 Fram Reykjavik L 0-3 1163 1110 48.9% 25.4% 25.7% -31.7 18
1980-08-24 @ Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-0 1110 1163 25.7% 25.4% 48.9% +31.7 20
1980-08-25 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 1262 1047 64.5% 23.6% 11.9% +3.4 22
1980-08-25 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1047 1262 11.9% 23.6% 64.5% -3.4 8
1980-08-27 KR Reykjavik L 0-1 1092 1070 45.1% 25.6% 29.4% -10.8 15
1980-08-27 @ Breidablik W 1-0 1070 1092 29.4% 25.6% 45.1% +10.8 15
1980-08-27 FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1141 1001 58.3% 24.6% 17.1% -2.2 21
1980-08-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1001 1141 17.1% 24.6% 58.3% +2.2 12
1980-08-27 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1129 1131 41.8% 25.6% 32.6% +13.7 15
1980-08-27 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar L 1-3 1131 1129 32.6% 25.6% 41.8% -13.7 18
1980-08-28 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1210 1265 34.4% 25.6% 40.0% -8.2 18
1980-08-28 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 1265 1210 40.0% 25.6% 34.4% +8.2 24
1980-08-28 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1044 1086 36.0% 25.6% 38.3% +0.1 9
1980-08-28 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 1086 1044 38.3% 25.6% 36.0% -0.1 13
1980-09-06 IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1003 1143 23.8% 25.1% 51.0% +1.4 13
1980-09-06 @ FH Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1143 1003 51.0% 25.1% 23.8% -1.4 16
1980-09-06 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 1086 1273 19.2% 24.6% 56.2% -5.1 13
1980-09-06 @ Keflavik IF W 2-1 1273 1086 56.2% 24.6% 19.2% +5.1 26
1980-09-06 Throttur Reykjavik W 2-0 1117 1044 51.3% 25.3% 23.4% +12.2 20
1980-09-06 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 0-2 1044 1117 23.4% 25.3% 51.3% -12.2 9
1980-09-07 IA Akranes W 2-0 1082 1202 26.0% 25.3% 48.7% +21.7 17
1980-09-07 @ Breidablik L 0-2 1202 1082 48.7% 25.3% 26.0% -21.7 18
1980-09-07 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1081 1139 33.8% 25.6% 40.6% -8.6 15
1980-09-07 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 1139 1081 40.6% 25.6% 33.8% +8.6 23
1980-09-12 FH Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1032 1004 45.7% 25.5% 28.8% -9.8 9
1980-09-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 3-2 1004 1032 28.8% 25.5% 45.7% +9.8 15
1980-09-13 Breidablik W 2-0 1148 1103 47.9% 25.5% 26.7% +13.6 25
1980-09-13 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1103 1148 26.7% 25.5% 47.9% -13.5 17
1980-09-13 Keflavik IF W 3-0 1180 1081 54.2% 25.1% 20.8% +16.1 20
1980-09-13 @ IA Akranes L 0-3 1081 1180 20.8% 25.1% 54.2% -16.0 13
1980-09-13 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 1142 1072 50.9% 25.3% 23.8% -1.4 17
1980-09-13 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar D 1-1 1072 1142 23.8% 25.3% 50.9% +1.4 16
1980-09-14 Vikingur Reykjavik W 3-1 1278 1130 59.1% 24.5% 16.4% +7.8 28
1980-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 1130 1278 16.4% 24.5% 59.1% -7.8 20

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1980-09-26 IA Akranes W 2-1 1122 1197 27.3% 25.4% 47.3% +10.6 1-0
1980-09-26 @ Vikingur Reykjavik L 1-2 1197 1122 47.3% 25.4% 27.3% -10.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1980-07-20 14.95% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 975 2 Valur Reykjavik 1214 1
2 1980-06-05 15.11% FH Hafnarfjordur 1013 3 @ IA Akranes 1179 1
3 1980-08-09 17.65% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 983 1 IA Akranes 1188 0
4 1980-08-17 20.15% FH Hafnarfjordur 997 2 @ KR Reykjavik 1103 1
5 1980-06-22 21.77% IA Akranes 1154 3 @ Valur Reykjavik 1243 0
6 1980-06-08 21.98% Breidablik 1025 2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1112 1
7 1980-07-26 25.29% Fram Reykjavik 1098 1 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1155 0
8 1980-07-07 25.53% KR Reykjavik 1111 4 @ Fram Reykjavik 1166 1
9 1980-08-24 25.68% Fram Reykjavik 1110 3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1163 0
10 1980-05-26 25.78% KR Reykjavik 1093 1 @ Keflavik IF 1146 0
11 1980-09-07 25.99% @ Breidablik 1082 2 IA Akranes 1202 0
12 1980-09-26 * 27.26% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1122 2 IA Akranes 1197 1
13 1980-07-19 27.39% @ Breidablik 1067 2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1176 0
14 1980-07-28 28.61% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 1120 3 IA Akranes 1219 0
15 1980-09-12 28.80% FH Hafnarfjordur 1004 3 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1032 2
16 1980-08-27 29.38% KR Reykjavik 1070 1 @ Breidablik 1092 0
17 1980-07-10 29.82% @ Breidablik 1050 3 Fram Reykjavik 1139 1
18 1980-05-18 30.08% @ Breidablik 1025 2 Throttur Reykjavik 1112 1
19 1980-06-04 31.51% @ Fram Reykjavik 1146 1 Valur Reykjavik 1222 0
20 1980-05-10 31.82% @ Fram Reykjavik 1108 2 IA Akranes 1182 0
21 1980-06-05 31.91% Vikingur Reykjavik 1102 1 @ KR Reykjavik 1105 0
22 1980-07-26 32.95% Breidablik 1088 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1084 0
23 1980-05-24 34.37% IA Akranes 1169 2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1154 1
24 1980-07-10 35.40% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1160 3 @ KR Reykjavik 1138 1
25 1980-07-06 35.79% Vikingur Reykjavik 1102 1 @ Throttur Reykjavik 1077 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1980-06-22 34.09 IA Akranes 3 1154 21.77% @ Valur Reykjavik 0 1243 53.07% 25.16%
2 1980-08-24 31.68 Fram Reykjavik 3 1110 25.68% @ Vikingur Reykjavik 0 1163 48.90% 25.42%
3 1980-06-14 30.71 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4 1131 40.81% Keflavik IF 0 1140 33.55% 25.63%
4 1980-07-28 30.01 @ Vikingur Reykjavik 3 1120 28.61% IA Akranes 0 1219 45.97% 25.42%
5 1980-06-14 29.03 @ Breidablik 4 1037 43.24% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1028 31.16% 25.60%
6 1980-07-27 27.92 @ Valur Reykjavik 5 1201 51.97% KR Reykjavik 0 1121 22.79% 25.24%
7 1980-07-07 26.79 KR Reykjavik 4 1111 25.53% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 1166 49.06% 25.41%
8 1980-07-20 23.09 @ IA Akranes 4 1196 51.40% Fram Reykjavik 0 1121 23.33% 25.28%
9 1980-06-05 23.03 FH Hafnarfjordur 3 1013 15.11% @ IA Akranes 1 1179 60.58% 24.32%
10 1980-05-17 22.02 Valur Reykjavik 3 1197 43.66% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1115 30.83% 25.51%
11 1980-09-07 21.72 @ Breidablik 2 1082 25.99% IA Akranes 0 1202 48.73% 25.28%
12 1980-07-19 21.15 @ Breidablik 2 1067 27.39% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1176 47.25% 25.36%
13 1980-06-07 20.80 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 1212 49.69% IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2 1152 24.93% 25.38%
14 1980-08-23 20.74 IA Akranes 3 1190 46.03% @ KR Reykjavik 0 1090 28.55% 25.42%
15 1980-08-11 20.50 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1227 54.77% Fram Reykjavik 0 1122 20.22% 25.02%
16 1980-05-10 19.43 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1108 31.82% IA Akranes 0 1182 42.63% 25.54%
17 1980-05-12 17.52 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 1179 58.55% FH Hafnarfjordur 0 1036 16.85% 24.60%
18 1980-07-10 17.49 @ Breidablik 3 1050 29.82% Fram Reykjavik 1 1139 44.71% 25.47%
19 1980-09-13 16.06 @ IA Akranes 3 1180 54.16% Keflavik IF 0 1081 20.77% 25.07%
20 1980-07-10 15.68 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1160 35.40% @ KR Reykjavik 1 1138 38.96% 25.64%
21 1980-07-09 15.36 Throttur Reykjavik 2 1067 43.13% @ FH Hafnarfjordur 0 990 31.35% 25.53%
22 1980-08-16 15.25 @ IA Akranes 3 1174 55.51% Throttur Reykjavik 0 1062 19.54% 24.95%
23 1980-08-16 14.04 Valur Reykjavik 2 1248 46.67% @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0 1143 27.94% 25.39%
24 1980-08-27 13.71 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3 1129 41.79% Vikingur Reykjavik 1 1131 32.58% 25.62%
25 1980-09-13 13.56 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1148 47.85% Breidablik 0 1103 26.68% 25.46%