Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1966
← 1965 1967 →

1966 Úrvalsdeild Season

30 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Keflavik IF

14 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valur Reykjavik

4.47 points above expected

14 points · 9.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

6.72 points below expected

3 points · 9.72 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 10 6 2 2 14 23 12 +11 10.5 +3.54
2 Valur Reykjavik 10 6 2 2 14 20 12 +8 9.5 +4.47
3 IBA Akureyri 10 4 4 2 12 20 17 +3 10.3 +1.69
4 KR Reykjavik 10 4 2 4 10 19 13 +6 9.6 +0.39
5 IA Akranes 10 2 3 5 7 13 21 -8 10.4 -3.37
6 Throttur Reykjavik 10 0 3 7 3 7 27 -20 9.7 -6.72

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Keflavik IF 830 14 10.46 +3.54 95.4% 1 6 9 11 12 14 18
Valur Reykjavik 821 14 9.53 +4.47 97.9% 1 5 8 9 11 14 19
KR Reykjavik 818 10 9.61 +0.39 63.9% 1 6 8 10 11 14 20
IBA Akureyri 815 12 10.31 +1.69 81.4% 2 6 9 10 12 14 20
Throttur Reykjavik 802 3 9.72 -6.72 0.4% 2 6 8 10 11 14 18
IA Akranes 799 7 10.37 -3.37 12.0% 1 6 9 10 12 14 19

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team IA IA KR KI TR VR
IA Akranes —
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
2.80
IBA Akureyri
2-0-0
2.79
 —
1-1-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.70
0-1-1
3.43
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.14
0-1-1
2.85
 —
0-0-2
2.79
2-0-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.78
Keflavik IF
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.79
 —
1-1-0
3.38
1-0-1
2.81
Throttur Reykjavik
0-1-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.78
0-1-1
2.17
 —
0-0-2
2.80
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.79
1-1-0
2.10
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
2.80
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%1.67%1.67%—3.33%15.00%
18.33%23.33%6.67%1.67%3.33%3.33%46.67%
21.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%—1.67%16.67%
31.67%1.67%3.33%—1.67%—8.33%
4—3.33%—1.67%——5.00%
5+3.33%3.33%1.67%———8.33%
Total15.00%46.67%16.67%8.33%5.00%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.70
Mean allowed1.70
StdDev scored1.52
StdDev allowed1.52
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.124
Sample size (games)30
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%————10.00%
1—30.00%20.00%—10.00%—60.00%
2—10.00%———10.00%20.00%
3—10.00%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—60.00%20.00%—10.00%10.00%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.30
Mean allowed2.10
StdDev scored0.82
StdDev allowed1.97
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.185
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———10.00%—10.00%20.00%
110.00%30.00%————40.00%
2—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
Total10.00%50.00%20.00%10.00%—10.00%100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed1.70
StdDev scored2.26
StdDev allowed1.42
Mean total goals/game3.70
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.208
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
110.00%10.00%10.00%———30.00%
2—10.00%10.00%10.00%——30.00%
3———————
4———————
5+10.00%10.00%————20.00%
Total20.00%40.00%30.00%10.00%——100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.90
Mean allowed1.30
StdDev scored1.79
StdDev allowed0.95
Mean total goals/game3.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.307
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
110.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
210.00%10.00%————20.00%
3——10.00%—10.00%—20.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+10.00%—————10.00%
Total30.00%40.00%20.00%—10.00%—100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.30
Mean allowed1.20
StdDev scored1.42
StdDev allowed1.23
Mean total goals/game3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.025
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—20.00%———10.00%30.00%
1—30.00%—10.00%10.00%20.00%70.00%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—50.00%—10.00%10.00%30.00%100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.70
Mean allowed2.70
StdDev scored0.48
StdDev allowed1.89
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.134
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%————10.00%
120.00%20.00%————40.00%
2———10.00%——10.00%
310.00%—10.00%———20.00%
4—10.00%—10.00%——20.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%10.00%20.00%——100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed1.20
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed1.14
Mean total goals/game3.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.415
Games played10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 14 9.5 +4.47
2 Keflavik IF 14 10.5 +3.54
3 IBA Akureyri 12 10.3 +1.69
4 KR Reykjavik 10 9.6 +0.39
5 IA Akranes 7 10.4 -3.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 3 9.7 -6.72
2 IA Akranes 7 10.4 -3.37
3 KR Reykjavik 10 9.6 +0.39
4 IBA Akureyri 12 10.3 +1.69
5 Keflavik IF 14 10.5 +3.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jun 19 – Jul 22 1 in 28
2 Keflavik IF 3 Aug 21 – Sep 11 1 in 14
3 KR Reykjavik 2 Aug 21 – Aug 28 1 in 9
4 IA Akranes 1 May 30 – May 30 61%
5 IBA Akureyri 1 Jun 26 – Jun 26 61%

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Reykjavik 4 Jun 23 – Aug 8 1 in 97
2 IA Akranes 3 Aug 21 – Sep 4 1 in 49
3 IBA Akureyri 1 Jun 19 – Jun 19 1 in 3
4 KR Reykjavik 1 Jun 26 – Jun 26 61%
5 Keflavik IF 1 May 30 – May 30 61%

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 6 Jul 16 – Sep 4 1 in 34
2 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 15 – Jul 22 1 in 14
3 Keflavik IF 5 Jul 28 – Sep 11 1 in 5
4 IA Akranes 3 May 30 – Jun 20 1 in 2
5 KR Reykjavik 2 May 31 – Jun 20 51%

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Reykjavik 10 May 30 – Sep 14 1 in 211
2 IA Akranes 5 Aug 7 – Sep 4 1 in 12
3 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 20 – Aug 4 1 in 6
4 IBA Akureyri 2 May 30 – Jun 19 50%
5 Keflavik IF 2 May 30 – Jun 14 53%

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
Keflavik IF24.60%20.20%17.36%14.64%12.83%10.37%
Valur Reykjavik13.80%15.03%16.90%17.72%18.15%18.40%
IBA Akureyri19.41%18.33%17.35%16.20%15.30%13.41%
KR Reykjavik13.80%15.55%16.25%16.92%18.30%19.18%
IA Akranes17.44%17.60%17.19%17.08%16.25%14.44%
Throttur Reykjavik10.95%13.29%14.95%17.44%19.17%24.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Keflavik IF 89.6% 10.4%
IBA Akureyri 86.6% 13.4%
IA Akranes 85.6% 14.4%
Valur Reykjavik 81.6% 18.4%
KR Reykjavik 80.8% 19.2%
Throttur Reykjavik 75.8% 24.2%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1966-05-30 Keflavik IF W 2-1 811 811 61.0% 21.2% 17.9% +0.9 3
1966-05-30 @ IA Akranes L 1-2 811 811 17.9% 21.2% 61.0% -0.9 0
1966-05-30 IBA Akureyri D 1-1 829 818 62.2% 20.5% 17.2% -0.5 1
1966-05-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 818 829 17.2% 20.5% 62.2% +0.5 1
1966-05-31 Valur Reykjavik W 1-0 811 806 61.4% 20.9% 17.7% +0.9 3
1966-05-31 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 806 811 17.7% 20.9% 61.4% -0.9 0
1966-06-14 Keflavik IF D 1-1 828 810 40.1% 25.0% 34.9% -0.0 2
1966-06-14 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 810 828 34.9% 25.0% 40.1% +0.1 1
1966-06-15 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 812 805 61.7% 20.8% 17.5% -0.5 4
1966-06-15 @ IA Akranes D 1-1 805 812 17.5% 20.8% 61.7% +0.5 1
1966-06-19 IBA Akureyri W 3-0 806 818 35.7% 25.1% 39.2% +5.2 4
1966-06-19 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-3 818 806 39.2% 25.1% 35.7% -5.2 1
1966-06-20 IA Akranes D 1-1 812 812 37.4% 25.1% 37.5% +0.0 4
1966-06-20 @ KR Reykjavik D 1-1 812 812 37.5% 25.1% 37.4% +0.0 5
1966-06-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-4 828 811 63.0% 20.1% 16.9% -6.4 2
1966-06-23 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 4-1 811 828 16.9% 20.1% 63.0% +6.4 7
1966-06-26 IA Akranes W 2-1 813 812 61.0% 21.1% 17.9% +0.9 4
1966-06-26 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-2 812 813 17.9% 21.1% 61.0% -0.9 5
1966-06-26 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 810 812 60.7% 21.3% 18.1% +0.9 4
1966-06-26 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 812 810 18.1% 21.3% 60.7% -0.9 4
1966-07-10 Keflavik IF L 0-5 814 811 61.3% 21.0% 17.7% -12.0 4
1966-07-10 @ IBA Akureyri W 5-0 811 814 17.7% 21.0% 61.3% +12.0 7
1966-07-16 IBA Akureyri D 2-2 811 802 62.0% 20.6% 17.4% -0.4 5
1966-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik D 2-2 802 811 17.4% 20.6% 62.0% +0.4 5
1966-07-22 Keflavik IF W 4-3 817 823 60.2% 21.5% 18.3% +0.9 10
1966-07-22 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-4 823 817 18.3% 21.5% 60.2% -0.9 7
1966-07-24 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 811 822 59.5% 21.8% 18.7% +1.6 8
1966-07-24 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 822 811 18.7% 21.8% 59.5% -1.6 2
1966-07-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 802 820 58.6% 22.2% 19.2% +3.1 8
1966-07-28 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-5 820 802 19.2% 22.2% 58.6% -3.1 2
1966-07-28 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 822 818 61.3% 21.0% 17.7% +0.8 10
1966-07-28 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 818 822 17.7% 21.0% 61.3% -0.9 10
1966-08-04 KR Reykjavik W 3-2 817 810 61.8% 20.8% 17.5% +0.8 13
1966-08-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-3 810 817 17.5% 20.8% 61.8% -0.8 5
1966-08-07 IBA Akureyri D 1-1 823 805 63.1% 20.1% 16.8% -0.5 11
1966-08-07 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 805 823 16.8% 20.1% 63.1% +0.5 9
1966-08-07 IA Akranes W 1-0 818 813 61.6% 20.8% 17.6% +0.9 16
1966-08-07 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 813 818 17.6% 20.8% 61.6% -0.9 8
1966-08-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-5 817 809 61.8% 20.7% 17.5% -8.2 2
1966-08-08 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 5-1 809 817 17.5% 20.7% 61.8% +8.2 8
1966-08-11 KR Reykjavik W 1-0 806 818 59.4% 21.9% 18.8% +1.0 12
1966-08-11 @ IBA Akureyri L 0-1 818 806 18.8% 21.9% 59.4% -1.0 8
1966-08-11 IA Akranes D 1-1 809 812 60.5% 21.4% 18.1% -0.4 3
1966-08-11 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 1-1 812 809 18.1% 21.4% 60.5% +0.4 9
1966-08-21 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 812 817 60.3% 21.5% 18.2% -2.5 9
1966-08-21 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 817 812 18.2% 21.5% 60.3% +2.5 11
1966-08-21 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 822 808 62.6% 20.3% 17.1% +0.9 14
1966-08-21 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 808 822 17.1% 20.3% 62.6% -0.9 3
1966-08-28 Throttur Reykjavik W 5-0 819 807 62.3% 20.5% 17.2% +4.0 14
1966-08-28 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-5 807 819 17.2% 20.5% 62.3% -4.0 3
1966-08-28 IA Akranes W 4-1 823 810 62.6% 20.3% 17.1% +2.1 17
1966-08-28 @ Keflavik IF L 1-4 810 823 17.1% 20.3% 62.6% -2.1 9
1966-08-28 Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 807 819 59.3% 21.9% 18.8% -0.4 13
1966-08-28 @ IBA Akureyri D 1-1 819 807 18.8% 21.9% 59.3% +0.4 17
1966-09-04 IBA Akureyri L 2-7 807 806 61.0% 21.1% 17.9% -8.3 9
1966-09-04 @ IA Akranes W 7-2 806 807 17.9% 21.1% 61.0% +8.3 16
1966-09-11 Keflavik IF L 0-2 823 825 60.6% 21.3% 18.1% -5.1 14
1966-09-11 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 825 823 18.1% 21.3% 60.6% +5.1 20
1966-09-14 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 820 803 62.9% 20.2% 16.9% +0.9 20
1966-09-14 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 803 820 16.9% 20.2% 62.9% -0.9 3

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1966-06-23 16.87% Valur Reykjavik 811 4 @ Throttur Reykjavik 828 1
2 1966-08-08 17.46% KR Reykjavik 809 5 @ Throttur Reykjavik 817 1
3 1966-07-10 17.74% Keflavik IF 811 5 @ IBA Akureyri 814 0
4 1966-09-04 17.87% IBA Akureyri 806 7 @ IA Akranes 807 2
5 1966-09-11 18.08% Keflavik IF 825 2 @ KR Reykjavik 823 0
6 1966-08-21 18.24% KR Reykjavik 817 2 @ IA Akranes 812 1
7 1966-06-19 35.70% @ Valur Reykjavik 806 3 IBA Akureyri 818 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1966-07-10 12.03 Keflavik IF 5 811 17.74% @ IBA Akureyri 0 814 61.25%
2 1966-09-04 8.31 IBA Akureyri 7 806 17.87% @ IA Akranes 2 807 61.01%
3 1966-08-08 8.18 KR Reykjavik 5 809 17.46% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 817 61.80%
4 1966-06-23 6.43 Valur Reykjavik 4 811 16.87% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 828 63.00%
5 1966-06-19 5.21 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 806 35.70% IBA Akureyri 0 818 39.21%
6 1966-09-11 5.10 Keflavik IF 2 825 18.08% @ KR Reykjavik 0 823 60.60%
7 1966-08-28 4.03 @ KR Reykjavik 5 819 62.34% Throttur Reykjavik 0 807 17.19%
8 1966-07-28 3.09 @ IBA Akureyri 5 802 58.62% Throttur Reykjavik 1 820 19.17%
9 1966-08-21 2.54 KR Reykjavik 2 817 18.24% @ IA Akranes 1 812 60.29%
10 1966-08-28 2.09 @ Keflavik IF 4 823 62.58% IA Akranes 1 810 17.08%
11 1966-07-24 1.64 @ IA Akranes 3 811 59.51% Throttur Reykjavik 1 822 18.66%
12 1966-08-11 1.01 @ IBA Akureyri 1 806 59.37% KR Reykjavik 0 818 18.75%
13 1966-05-31 0.94 @ KR Reykjavik 1 811 61.40% Valur Reykjavik 0 806 17.66%
14 1966-08-07 0.94 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 818 61.59% IA Akranes 0 813 17.57%
15 1966-08-21 0.91 @ Keflavik IF 1 822 62.62% Throttur Reykjavik 0 808 17.06%
16 1966-06-26 0.91 @ Keflavik IF 2 810 60.65% KR Reykjavik 1 812 18.05%
17 1966-05-30 0.90 @ IA Akranes 2 811 60.95% Keflavik IF 1 811 17.90%
18 1966-06-26 0.90 @ IBA Akureyri 2 813 61.00% IA Akranes 1 812 17.87%
19 1966-09-14 0.89 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 820 62.91% Throttur Reykjavik 0 803 16.92%
20 1966-07-22 0.86 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 817 60.20% Keflavik IF 3 823 18.29%
21 1966-07-28 0.85 @ Keflavik IF 3 822 61.32% Valur Reykjavik 2 818 17.71%
22 1966-08-04 0.83 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 817 61.77% KR Reykjavik 2 810 17.48%
23 1966-08-07 0.49 @ Keflavik IF 1 823 63.06% IBA Akureyri 1 805 16.84%
24 1966-05-30 0.48 IBA Akureyri 1 818 17.24% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 829 62.24%
25 1966-06-15 0.47 Valur Reykjavik 1 805 17.50% @ IA Akranes 1 812 61.73%