1965 Úrvalsdeild Season

30 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

IA Akranes

13 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

KR Reykjavik

3.16 points above expected

13 points · 9.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fram Reykjavik

4.46 points below expected

5 points · 9.46 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 IA Akranes 10 6 1 3 13 24 16 +8 9.9 +3.11
2 KR Reykjavik 10 5 3 2 13 22 15 +7 9.8 +3.16
3 Keflavik IF 10 4 3 3 11 18 15 +3 10.0 +1.02
4 Valur Reykjavik 10 4 1 5 9 21 22 -1 9.7 -0.72
5 IBA Akureyri 10 4 1 5 9 13 21 -8 11.1 -2.12
6 Fram Reykjavik 10 2 1 7 5 10 19 -9 9.5 -4.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBA Akureyri 857 9 11.12 -2.12 27.6% 1 7 9 11 13 16 20
IA Akranes 832 13 9.89 +3.11 90.1% 0 5 8 10 12 14 19
Keflavik IF 829 11 9.98 +1.02 70.6% 0 6 8 10 12 15 20
KR Reykjavik 829 13 9.84 +3.16 90.6% 1 5 8 10 12 14 20
Valur Reykjavik 812 9 9.72 -0.72 46.8% 0 5 8 10 12 14 19
Fram Reykjavik 798 5 9.46 -4.46 7.3% 1 5 8 9 11 14 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IA KR KI VR
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-2
2.68
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.72
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.93
1-1-0
2.53
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-2
2.82
2-0-0
2.84
IBA Akureyri
2-0-0
3.24
0-1-1
3.10
0-0-2
3.15
2-0-0
3.09
0-0-2
3.22
KR Reykjavik
2-0-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.83
2-0-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.83
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.93
2-0-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.54
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.91
Valur Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.79
2-0-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.72

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%6.67%3.33%15.00%
15.00%6.67%11.67%3.33%1.67%28.33%
26.67%11.67%6.67%5.00%1.67%1.67%33.33%
33.33%5.00%3.33%1.67%13.33%
41.67%1.67%1.67%5.00%
5+3.33%1.67%5.00%
Total15.00%28.33%33.33%13.33%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.80
Mean allowed1.80
StdDev scored1.29
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game3.60
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.087
Sample size (games)30
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%10.00%30.00%
110.00%40.00%50.00%
210.00%10.00%
310.00%10.00%
4
5+
Total40.00%50.00%10.00%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.00
Mean allowed1.90
StdDev scored0.94
StdDev allowed1.20
Mean total goals/game2.90
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.197
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
110.00%20.00%30.00%
210.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
320.00%20.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+10.00%10.00%
Total20.00%10.00%60.00%10.00%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.40
Mean allowed1.60
StdDev scored1.35
StdDev allowed0.97
Mean total goals/game4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.136
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%20.00%
110.00%20.00%30.00%
210.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%50.00%
3
4
5+
Total20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.30
Mean allowed2.10
StdDev scored0.82
StdDev allowed1.66
Mean total goals/game3.40
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.430
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
110.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
210.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%40.00%
310.00%10.00%20.00%
4
5+10.00%10.00%
Total30.00%30.00%10.00%20.00%10.00%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.20
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.23
StdDev allowed1.43
Mean total goals/game3.70
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.252
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%20.00%30.00%
120.00%20.00%
220.00%20.00%
310.00%10.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+10.00%10.00%
Total10.00%50.00%20.00%20.00%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.80
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.75
StdDev allowed0.97
Mean total goals/game3.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.000
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%
110.00%10.00%
210.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%50.00%
310.00%10.00%20.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+
Total10.00%20.00%40.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.10
Mean allowed2.20
StdDev scored1.10
StdDev allowed1.48
Mean total goals/game4.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.055
Games played10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KR Reykjavik 13 9.8 +3.16
2 IA Akranes 13 9.9 +3.11
3 Keflavik IF 11 10.0 +1.02
4 Valur Reykjavik 9 9.7 -0.72
5 IBA Akureyri 9 11.1 -2.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 5 9.5 -4.46
2 IBA Akureyri 9 11.1 -2.12
3 Valur Reykjavik 9 9.7 -0.72
4 Keflavik IF 11 10.0 +1.02
5 IA Akranes 13 9.9 +3.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 6 Jun 14 – Aug 28 1 in 282
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 20 – Jul 30 1 in 30
3 IBA Akureyri 2 Aug 15 – Aug 22 1 in 5
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jun 10 – Jun 13 1 in 4
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 May 20 – May 20 1 in 4

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 3 Jun 20 – Jul 18 1 in 38
2 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 8 – Aug 15 1 in 29
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Sep 22 1 in 24
4 IA Akranes 2 May 20 – May 23 1 in 7
5 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 10 – Jun 13 1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 7 Jun 7 – Aug 28 1 in 62
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Jun 20 – Jul 30 1 in 7
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 May 30 – Jun 13 1 in 4
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 21 – Aug 15 1 in 4
5 IBA Akureyri 2 Jun 7 – Jun 13 1 in 2

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Reykjavik 8 May 23 – Aug 15 1 in 50
2 IBA Akureyri 3 Jun 20 – Jul 18 1 in 9
3 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 1 – Jun 21 1 in 8
4 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jul 12 – Sep 22 1 in 6
5 IA Akranes 3 May 20 – Jun 7 1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
IA Akranes18.25%17.31%17.45%16.35%16.36%14.28%
KR Reykjavik17.59%16.53%16.69%17.27%16.62%15.30%
Keflavik IF16.80%17.25%16.85%16.95%16.72%15.43%
Valur Reykjavik13.26%16.12%16.33%16.79%17.72%19.78%
IBA Akureyri24.02%19.91%17.75%15.45%12.76%10.11%
Fram Reykjavik10.08%12.88%14.93%17.19%19.82%25.10%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IBA Akureyri 89.9% 10.1%
IA Akranes 85.7% 14.3%
KR Reykjavik 84.7% 15.3%
Keflavik IF 84.6% 15.4%
Valur Reykjavik 80.2% 19.8%
Fram Reykjavik 74.9% 25.1%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1965-05-20 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 822 810 54.0% 18.4% 27.6% -2.0 0
1965-05-20 @ IA Akranes W 3-2 810 822 27.6% 18.4% 54.0% +2.0 3
1965-05-23 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 870 812 59.8% 17.3% 22.8% +1.0 3
1965-05-23 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-2 812 870 22.8% 17.3% 59.8% -1.0 3
1965-05-23 IA Akranes W 2-1 826 820 53.3% 18.5% 28.1% +1.2 3
1965-05-23 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 820 826 28.1% 18.5% 53.3% -1.2 0
1965-05-30 IBA Akureyri W 4-2 812 871 44.5% 19.1% 36.4% +2.4 3
1965-05-30 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 871 812 36.4% 19.1% 44.5% -2.4 3
1965-06-01 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 827 817 53.8% 18.5% 27.8% -0.2 4
1965-06-01 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 817 827 27.8% 18.5% 53.8% +0.3 1
1965-06-04 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 815 818 52.1% 18.7% 29.2% -0.2 4
1965-06-04 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 818 815 29.2% 18.7% 52.1% +0.2 2
1965-06-07 IA Akranes D 2-2 869 818 58.9% 17.6% 23.6% -0.3 4
1965-06-07 @ IBA Akureyri D 2-2 818 869 23.6% 17.6% 58.9% +0.3 1
1965-06-08 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 811 818 51.6% 18.7% 29.7% -2.1 3
1965-06-08 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 818 811 29.7% 18.7% 51.6% +2.1 5
1965-06-10 Keflavik IF W 2-0 815 827 50.8% 18.8% 30.4% +2.6 7
1965-06-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 827 815 30.4% 18.8% 50.8% -2.6 4
1965-06-13 IBA Akureyri L 0-1 825 869 46.6% 19.1% 34.4% -2.0 4
1965-06-13 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 869 825 34.4% 19.1% 46.6% +2.0 7
1965-06-13 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 817 809 53.6% 18.5% 28.0% +1.2 10
1965-06-13 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 809 817 28.0% 18.5% 53.6% -1.2 3
1965-06-14 IA Akranes L 2-3 820 819 52.6% 18.6% 28.8% -2.0 5
1965-06-14 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 819 820 28.8% 18.6% 52.6% +2.0 4
1965-06-20 Valur Reykjavik W 3-2 821 818 52.8% 18.6% 28.6% +1.2 7
1965-06-20 @ IA Akranes L 2-3 818 821 28.6% 18.6% 52.8% -1.2 10
1965-06-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 871 818 59.2% 17.5% 23.4% -4.0 7
1965-06-20 @ IBA Akureyri W 3-1 818 871 23.4% 17.5% 59.2% +4.0 8
1965-06-21 Keflavik IF D 1-1 808 823 50.5% 18.8% 30.7% -0.2 4
1965-06-21 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 823 808 30.7% 18.8% 50.5% +0.2 5
1965-06-21 Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 867 817 58.7% 17.6% 23.7% -4.0 7
1965-06-21 @ IBA Akureyri W 3-1 817 867 23.7% 17.6% 58.7% +4.0 13
1965-07-08 Fram Reykjavik W 5-0 823 807 54.5% 18.4% 27.2% +5.6 8
1965-07-08 @ Keflavik IF L 0-5 807 823 27.2% 18.4% 54.5% -5.6 4
1965-07-12 Valur Reykjavik W 2-0 822 821 52.5% 18.6% 28.8% +2.5 11
1965-07-12 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-2 821 822 28.8% 18.6% 52.5% -2.5 13
1965-07-18 IBA Akureyri W 5-0 824 863 47.4% 19.0% 33.6% +6.8 14
1965-07-18 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-5 863 824 33.6% 19.0% 47.4% -6.8 7
1965-07-19 IA Akranes L 0-1 802 822 49.8% 18.9% 31.3% -2.1 4
1965-07-19 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 822 802 31.3% 18.9% 49.8% +2.1 10
1965-07-30 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 831 800 56.5% 18.0% 25.5% +1.2 17
1965-07-30 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 800 831 25.5% 18.0% 56.5% -1.2 4
1965-08-12 IA Akranes L 2-5 819 824 51.8% 18.7% 29.5% -4.4 13
1965-08-12 @ Valur Reykjavik W 5-2 824 819 29.5% 18.7% 51.8% +4.4 13
1965-08-15 IBA Akureyri L 1-2 799 856 44.7% 19.1% 36.2% -1.8 4
1965-08-15 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 856 799 36.2% 19.1% 44.7% +1.8 10
1965-08-15 Valur Reykjavik W 4-3 828 814 54.3% 18.4% 27.3% +1.1 11
1965-08-15 @ Keflavik IF L 3-4 814 828 27.3% 18.4% 54.3% -1.1 13
1965-08-21 KR Reykjavik W 4-1 828 832 51.9% 18.7% 29.4% +3.1 16
1965-08-21 @ IA Akranes L 1-4 832 828 29.4% 18.7% 51.9% -3.1 17
1965-08-22 Keflavik IF W 2-0 858 829 56.1% 18.1% 25.8% +2.3 13
1965-08-22 @ IBA Akureyri L 0-2 829 858 25.8% 18.1% 56.1% -2.3 11
1965-08-28 IBA Akureyri W 2-0 832 860 48.7% 19.0% 32.4% +2.8 19
1965-08-28 @ IA Akranes L 0-2 860 832 32.4% 19.0% 48.7% -2.8 13
1965-09-18 Keflavik IF L 1-2 834 827 53.4% 18.5% 28.1% -2.1 19
1965-09-18 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 827 834 28.1% 18.5% 53.4% +2.1 14
1965-09-22 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 797 813 50.3% 18.9% 30.9% +1.3 7
1965-09-22 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 813 797 30.9% 18.9% 50.3% -1.3 13
1965-09-26 Keflavik IF D 3-3 829 829 52.5% 18.6% 28.9% -0.1 18
1965-09-26 @ KR Reykjavik D 3-3 829 829 28.9% 18.6% 52.5% +0.1 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-06-20 23.35% KR Reykjavik 818 3 @ IBA Akureyri 871 1
2 1965-06-21 23.68% Valur Reykjavik 817 3 @ IBA Akureyri 867 1
3 1965-05-20 27.57% Fram Reykjavik 810 3 @ IA Akranes 822 2
4 1965-09-18 28.09% Keflavik IF 827 2 @ IA Akranes 834 1
5 1965-06-14 28.76% IA Akranes 819 3 @ KR Reykjavik 820 2
6 1965-08-12 29.51% IA Akranes 824 5 @ Valur Reykjavik 819 2
7 1965-06-08 29.70% KR Reykjavik 818 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 811 1
8 1965-07-19 31.29% IA Akranes 822 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 802 0
9 1965-06-13 34.39% IBA Akureyri 869 1 @ Keflavik IF 825 0
10 1965-08-15 36.19% IBA Akureyri 856 2 @ Fram Reykjavik 799 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-07-18 6.75 @ KR Reykjavik 5 824 47.36% IBA Akureyri 0 863 33.62%
2 1965-07-08 5.60 @ Keflavik IF 5 823 54.46% Fram Reykjavik 0 807 27.18%
3 1965-08-12 4.40 IA Akranes 5 824 29.51% @ Valur Reykjavik 2 819 51.79%
4 1965-06-20 4.03 KR Reykjavik 3 818 23.35% @ IBA Akureyri 1 871 59.15%
5 1965-06-21 4.01 Valur Reykjavik 3 817 23.68% @ IBA Akureyri 1 867 58.73%
6 1965-08-21 3.15 @ IA Akranes 4 828 51.95% KR Reykjavik 1 832 29.36%
7 1965-08-28 2.79 @ IA Akranes 2 832 48.68% IBA Akureyri 0 860 32.36%
8 1965-06-10 2.65 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 815 50.81% Keflavik IF 0 827 30.39%
9 1965-07-12 2.52 @ KR Reykjavik 2 822 52.55% Valur Reykjavik 0 821 28.83%
10 1965-05-30 2.39 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 812 44.51% IBA Akureyri 2 871 36.41%
11 1965-08-22 2.28 @ IBA Akureyri 2 858 56.11% Keflavik IF 0 829 25.79%
12 1965-09-18 2.13 Keflavik IF 2 827 28.09% @ IA Akranes 1 834 53.40%
13 1965-07-19 2.12 IA Akranes 1 822 31.29% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 802 49.83%
14 1965-06-08 2.07 KR Reykjavik 2 818 29.70% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 811 51.57%
15 1965-05-20 2.04 Fram Reykjavik 3 810 27.57% @ IA Akranes 2 822 54.00%
16 1965-06-13 2.00 IBA Akureyri 1 869 34.39% @ Keflavik IF 0 825 46.56%
17 1965-06-14 2.00 IA Akranes 3 819 28.76% @ KR Reykjavik 2 820 52.63%
18 1965-08-15 1.83 IBA Akureyri 2 856 36.19% @ Fram Reykjavik 1 799 44.73%
19 1965-09-22 1.34 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 797 50.29% Valur Reykjavik 1 813 30.86%
20 1965-05-23 1.24 @ Keflavik IF 2 826 53.33% IA Akranes 1 820 28.14%
21 1965-06-13 1.23 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 817 53.56% Fram Reykjavik 1 809 27.95%
22 1965-07-30 1.20 @ KR Reykjavik 1 831 56.50% Fram Reykjavik 0 800 25.47%
23 1965-06-20 1.19 @ IA Akranes 3 821 52.76% Valur Reykjavik 2 818 28.65%
24 1965-08-15 1.11 @ Keflavik IF 4 828 54.29% Valur Reykjavik 3 814 27.32%
25 1965-05-23 1.02 @ IBA Akureyri 2 870 59.83% Fram Reykjavik 1 812 22.83%