1964 Úrvalsdeild Season

30 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Keflavik IF

15 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Keflavik IF

5.01 points above expected

15 points · 9.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Throttur Reykjavik

4.28 points below expected

7 points · 11.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 10 6 3 1 15 25 13 +12 10.0 +5.01
2 IA Akranes 10 6 0 4 12 27 21 +6 9.9 +2.10
3 KR Reykjavik 10 4 3 3 11 16 15 +1 9.9 +1.13
4 Valur Reykjavik 10 3 2 5 8 19 24 -5 9.6 -1.64
5 Fram Reykjavik 10 2 3 5 7 16 20 -4 9.3 -2.31
6 Throttur Reykjavik 10 2 3 5 7 14 24 -10 11.3 -4.28

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Throttur Reykjavik 905 7 11.28 -4.28 7.7% 2 7 10 11 13 15 20
Keflavik IF 878 15 9.99 +5.01 98.4% 1 6 8 10 12 14 19
IA Akranes 870 12 9.90 +2.10 84.1% 0 6 8 10 12 14 18
KR Reykjavik 863 11 9.87 +1.13 73.4% 1 6 8 10 12 14 20
Valur Reykjavik 853 8 9.64 -1.64 33.4% 1 5 8 10 11 14 19
Fram Reykjavik 847 7 9.31 -2.31 24.3% 1 5 8 9 11 14 19

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA KR KI TR VR
Fram Reykjavik
1-0-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.68
IA Akranes
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.82
KR Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.89
0-0-2
2.77
1-1-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.40
1-0-1
2.80
Keflavik IF
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.45
2-0-0
2.83
Throttur Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-2
3.15
0-1-1
3.10
0-1-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.16
Valur Reykjavik
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
2.66
0-1-1
2.36

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%5.00%1.67%1.67%21.67%
15.00%3.33%5.00%6.67%5.00%1.67%26.67%
21.67%5.00%6.67%3.33%3.33%1.67%21.67%
36.67%3.33%1.67%11.67%
41.67%5.00%3.33%10.00%
5+1.67%1.67%1.67%3.33%8.33%
Total21.67%26.67%21.67%11.67%10.00%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.95
Mean allowed1.95
StdDev scored1.76
StdDev allowed1.76
Mean total goals/game3.90
Correlation (home vs away score)0.260
Sample size (games)30
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
030.00%10.00%40.00%
110.00%10.00%20.00%
210.00%10.00%
310.00%10.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+10.00%10.00%
Total40.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.60
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored1.84
StdDev allowed2.58
Mean total goals/game3.60
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.726
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%
120.00%10.00%30.00%
2
320.00%10.00%30.00%
410.00%10.00%20.00%
5+10.00%10.00%
Total30.00%40.00%20.00%10.00%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.70
Mean allowed2.10
StdDev scored2.06
StdDev allowed0.99
Mean total goals/game4.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.472
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%20.00%
110.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
210.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
310.00%10.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+
Total30.00%30.00%20.00%20.00%100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.60
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.26
StdDev allowed1.51
Mean total goals/game3.10
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.058
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%20.00%
110.00%10.00%
210.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
310.00%10.00%
410.00%10.00%
5+10.00%10.00%20.00%
Total30.00%50.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.50
Mean allowed1.30
StdDev scored2.01
StdDev allowed1.57
Mean total goals/game3.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.651
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%10.00%30.00%
110.00%10.00%20.00%
210.00%20.00%10.00%40.00%
3
410.00%10.00%
5+
Total10.00%20.00%40.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Throttur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.40
Mean allowed2.40
StdDev scored1.26
StdDev allowed1.96
Mean total goals/game3.80
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.153
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%
110.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%50.00%
210.00%10.00%20.00%
310.00%10.00%
4
5+10.00%10.00%
Total20.00%10.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.90
Mean allowed2.40
StdDev scored1.97
StdDev allowed1.71
Mean total goals/game4.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.145
Games played10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Keflavik IF 15 10.0 +5.01
2 IA Akranes 12 9.9 +2.10
3 KR Reykjavik 11 9.9 +1.13
4 Valur Reykjavik 8 9.6 -1.64
5 Fram Reykjavik 7 9.3 -2.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Throttur Reykjavik 7 11.3 -4.28
2 Fram Reykjavik 7 9.3 -2.31
3 Valur Reykjavik 8 9.6 -1.64
4 KR Reykjavik 11 9.9 +1.13
5 IA Akranes 12 9.9 +2.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Keflavik IF 3 May 20 – Jun 14 1 in 16
2 KR Reykjavik 2 May 20 – Jun 10 1 in 10
3 IA Akranes 2 May 20 – May 28 1 in 9
4 Fram Reykjavik 1 Jun 19 – Jun 19 1 in 3
5 Valur Reykjavik 1 May 31 – May 31 50%

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 2 Jul 12 – Aug 30 1 in 17
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 20 – May 31 1 in 14
3 Valur Reykjavik 2 May 20 – May 27 1 in 7
4 Throttur Reykjavik 2 Jun 10 – Jun 19 1 in 6
5 KR Reykjavik 1 Jun 14 – Jun 14 1 in 2

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 4 Jul 15 – Sep 20 1 in 11
2 Keflavik IF 5 May 20 – Jul 2 1 in 9
3 Valur Reykjavik 3 Jul 6 – Jul 29 1 in 6
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jul 2 – Aug 27 1 in 6
5 IA Akranes 2 May 20 – May 28 1 in 3

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Throttur Reykjavik 7 Jun 10 – Sep 6 1 in 51
2 KR Reykjavik 4 Aug 27 – Sep 27 1 in 5
3 IA Akranes 2 Jul 12 – Aug 30 1 in 4
4 Keflavik IF 3 Jun 23 – Jul 15 1 in 3
5 Fram Reykjavik 3 May 20 – May 31 1 in 3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
Keflavik IF19.27%18.74%17.15%16.62%14.97%13.25%
IA Akranes16.55%17.68%17.82%16.63%16.72%14.60%
KR Reykjavik15.44%16.23%17.20%17.38%17.01%16.74%
Valur Reykjavik12.38%14.36%15.47%17.46%19.13%21.20%
Fram Reykjavik9.83%12.59%14.93%17.78%20.18%24.69%
Throttur Reykjavik26.53%20.40%17.43%14.13%11.99%9.52%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Throttur Reykjavik 90.5% 9.5%
Keflavik IF 86.8% 13.2%
IA Akranes 85.4% 14.6%
KR Reykjavik 83.3% 16.7%
Valur Reykjavik 78.8% 21.2%
Fram Reykjavik 75.3% 24.7%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1964-05-20 Throttur Reykjavik W 3-1 862 922 40.5% 26.7% 32.8% +2.7 3
1964-05-20 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 922 862 32.8% 26.7% 40.5% -2.7 0
1964-05-20 Fram Reykjavik W 6-5 861 849 50.5% 24.9% 24.5% +1.1 3
1964-05-20 @ Keflavik IF L 5-6 849 861 24.5% 24.9% 50.5% -1.1 0
1964-05-20 KR Reykjavik L 1-2 859 861 48.6% 25.6% 25.8% -2.1 0
1964-05-20 @ Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 861 859 25.8% 25.6% 48.6% +2.1 3
1964-05-27 Valur Reykjavik W 4-2 920 857 57.6% 21.9% 20.5% +1.5 3
1964-05-27 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 2-4 857 920 20.5% 21.9% 57.6% -1.5 0
1964-05-28 IA Akranes L 2-3 848 865 46.5% 26.1% 27.4% -1.9 0
1964-05-28 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 865 848 27.4% 26.1% 46.5% +1.9 6
1964-05-31 IA Akranes W 2-0 862 867 48.2% 25.7% 26.1% +2.6 6
1964-05-31 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 867 862 26.1% 25.7% 48.2% -2.6 6
1964-05-31 Fram Reykjavik W 7-3 856 846 50.2% 25.1% 24.7% +3.0 3
1964-05-31 @ Valur Reykjavik L 3-7 846 856 24.7% 25.1% 50.2% -3.0 0
1964-06-10 Throttur Reykjavik W 4-0 863 921 40.8% 26.7% 32.5% +5.8 6
1964-06-10 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-4 921 863 32.5% 26.7% 40.8% -5.8 3
1964-06-14 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 864 869 48.2% 25.7% 26.2% +2.0 9
1964-06-14 @ IA Akranes L 2-4 869 864 26.2% 25.7% 48.2% -2.0 6
1964-06-14 Keflavik IF L 1-4 859 865 48.0% 25.7% 26.3% -5.1 3
1964-06-14 @ Valur Reykjavik W 4-1 865 859 26.3% 25.7% 48.0% +5.1 9
1964-06-19 Throttur Reykjavik W 1-0 843 915 38.8% 26.7% 34.5% +1.7 3
1964-06-19 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 915 843 34.5% 26.7% 38.8% -1.7 3
1964-06-21 IA Akranes W 3-1 854 866 47.1% 26.0% 26.9% +2.3 6
1964-06-21 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-3 866 854 26.9% 26.0% 47.1% -2.3 9
1964-06-22 Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 867 845 51.9% 24.4% 23.6% +1.2 9
1964-06-22 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 845 867 23.6% 24.4% 51.9% -1.2 3
1964-06-23 Throttur Reykjavik D 0-0 870 914 42.8% 26.6% 30.6% -0.1 10
1964-06-23 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 914 870 30.6% 26.6% 42.8% +0.1 4
1964-06-28 Valur Reykjavik W 3-1 864 856 49.9% 25.2% 24.9% +2.1 12
1964-06-28 @ IA Akranes L 1-3 856 864 24.9% 25.2% 49.9% -2.1 6
1964-07-02 Keflavik IF D 0-0 843 870 45.1% 26.4% 28.5% -0.2 4
1964-07-02 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 870 843 28.5% 26.4% 45.1% +0.2 11
1964-07-05 IA Akranes L 2-7 914 866 55.6% 22.9% 21.6% -7.5 4
1964-07-05 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 7-2 866 914 21.6% 22.9% 55.6% +7.5 15
1964-07-06 Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 868 854 50.8% 24.9% 24.3% -2.3 9
1964-07-06 @ KR Reykjavik W 1-0 854 868 24.3% 24.9% 50.8% +2.3 9
1964-07-12 Fram Reykjavik L 1-4 873 843 53.1% 24.0% 22.9% -5.5 15
1964-07-12 @ IA Akranes W 4-1 843 873 22.9% 24.0% 53.1% +5.5 7
1964-07-13 Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 856 906 41.9% 26.7% 31.4% -0.1 10
1964-07-13 @ Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 906 856 31.4% 26.7% 41.9% +0.1 5
1964-07-15 Keflavik IF W 3-2 866 870 48.2% 25.7% 26.1% +1.2 12
1964-07-15 @ KR Reykjavik L 2-3 870 866 26.1% 25.7% 48.2% -1.2 11
1964-07-29 Valur Reykjavik D 0-0 849 856 47.8% 25.8% 26.4% -0.2 8
1964-07-29 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 856 849 26.4% 25.8% 47.8% +0.2 11
1964-07-30 Keflavik IF L 1-2 907 869 54.1% 23.5% 22.3% -2.3 5
1964-07-30 @ Throttur Reykjavik W 2-1 869 907 22.3% 23.5% 54.1% +2.3 14
1964-08-27 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 848 867 46.2% 26.1% 27.6% -0.2 9
1964-08-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 867 848 27.6% 26.1% 46.2% +0.2 13
1964-08-30 Keflavik IF L 1-3 868 871 48.4% 25.6% 26.0% -3.6 15
1964-08-30 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 871 868 26.0% 25.6% 48.4% +3.6 17
1964-09-05 Valur Reykjavik W 5-1 875 856 51.4% 24.6% 23.9% +3.7 20
1964-09-05 @ Keflavik IF L 1-5 856 875 23.9% 24.6% 51.4% -3.7 11
1964-09-06 KR Reykjavik D 2-2 904 867 54.0% 23.6% 22.4% -0.2 6
1964-09-06 @ Throttur Reykjavik D 2-2 867 904 22.4% 23.6% 54.0% +0.2 14
1964-09-12 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 904 848 56.7% 22.4% 21.0% +1.0 9
1964-09-12 @ Throttur Reykjavik L 1-2 848 904 21.0% 22.4% 56.7% -1.0 9
1964-09-20 KR Reykjavik D 1-1 878 867 50.4% 25.0% 24.6% -0.2 21
1964-09-20 @ Keflavik IF D 1-1 867 878 24.6% 25.0% 50.4% +0.2 15
1964-09-27 IA Akranes L 1-4 868 864 49.3% 25.4% 25.4% -5.2 15
1964-09-27 @ KR Reykjavik W 4-1 864 868 25.4% 25.4% 49.3% +5.2 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-07-05 21.55% IA Akranes 866 7 @ Throttur Reykjavik 914 2
2 1964-07-30 22.34% Keflavik IF 869 2 @ Throttur Reykjavik 907 1
3 1964-07-12 22.95% Fram Reykjavik 843 4 @ IA Akranes 873 1
4 1964-07-06 24.33% Valur Reykjavik 854 1 @ KR Reykjavik 868 0
5 1964-09-27 25.35% IA Akranes 864 4 @ KR Reykjavik 868 1
6 1964-05-20 25.82% KR Reykjavik 861 2 @ Valur Reykjavik 859 1
7 1964-08-30 25.99% Keflavik IF 871 3 @ IA Akranes 868 1
8 1964-06-14 26.29% Keflavik IF 865 4 @ Valur Reykjavik 859 1
9 1964-05-28 27.43% IA Akranes 865 3 @ Fram Reykjavik 848 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-07-05 7.47 IA Akranes 7 866 21.55% @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 914 55.57%
2 1964-06-10 5.84 @ KR Reykjavik 4 863 40.76% Throttur Reykjavik 0 921 32.52%
3 1964-07-12 5.46 Fram Reykjavik 4 843 22.95% @ IA Akranes 1 873 53.06%
4 1964-09-27 5.17 IA Akranes 4 864 25.35% @ KR Reykjavik 1 868 49.30%
5 1964-06-14 5.06 Keflavik IF 4 865 26.29% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 859 47.97%
6 1964-09-05 3.74 @ Keflavik IF 5 875 51.40% Valur Reykjavik 1 856 23.95%
7 1964-08-30 3.61 Keflavik IF 3 871 25.99% @ IA Akranes 1 868 48.39%
8 1964-05-31 2.99 @ Valur Reykjavik 7 856 50.21% Fram Reykjavik 3 846 24.73%
9 1964-05-20 2.68 @ IA Akranes 3 862 40.48% Throttur Reykjavik 1 922 32.80%
10 1964-05-31 2.57 @ Keflavik IF 2 862 48.23% IA Akranes 0 867 26.11%
11 1964-06-21 2.29 @ Valur Reykjavik 3 854 47.10% IA Akranes 1 866 26.94%
12 1964-07-06 2.29 Valur Reykjavik 1 854 24.33% @ KR Reykjavik 0 868 50.82%
13 1964-07-30 2.26 Keflavik IF 2 869 22.34% @ Throttur Reykjavik 1 907 54.12%
14 1964-06-28 2.13 @ IA Akranes 3 864 49.92% Valur Reykjavik 1 856 24.92%
15 1964-05-20 2.09 KR Reykjavik 2 861 25.82% @ Valur Reykjavik 1 859 48.62%
16 1964-06-14 2.00 @ IA Akranes 4 864 48.17% KR Reykjavik 2 869 26.15%
17 1964-05-28 1.92 IA Akranes 3 865 27.43% @ Fram Reykjavik 2 848 46.47%
18 1964-06-19 1.71 @ Fram Reykjavik 1 843 38.83% Throttur Reykjavik 0 915 34.53%
19 1964-05-27 1.54 @ Throttur Reykjavik 4 920 57.61% Valur Reykjavik 2 857 20.52%
20 1964-06-22 1.24 @ KR Reykjavik 1 867 51.94% Fram Reykjavik 0 845 23.62%
21 1964-07-15 1.22 @ KR Reykjavik 3 866 48.23% Keflavik IF 2 870 26.10%
22 1964-05-20 1.09 @ Keflavik IF 6 861 50.55% Fram Reykjavik 5 849 24.50%
23 1964-09-12 1.03 @ Throttur Reykjavik 2 904 56.67% Fram Reykjavik 1 848 20.99%
24 1964-09-20 0.25 @ Keflavik IF 1 878 50.37% KR Reykjavik 1 867 24.62%
25 1964-07-29 0.24 Valur Reykjavik 0 856 26.42% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 849 47.79%