Home / Leagues / Iceland / Úrvalsdeild / 1967
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1967 Úrvalsdeild Season

30 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Valur Reykjavik

14 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Reykjavik

4.03 points above expected

14 points · 9.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IA Akranes

5.53 points below expected

4 points · 9.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valur Reykjavik 10 6 2 2 14 20 16 +4 10.0 +4.01
2 Fram Reykjavik 10 5 4 1 14 15 11 +4 10.0 +4.03
3 IBA Akureyri 10 6 1 3 13 21 11 +10 10.1 +2.95
4 Keflavik IF 10 3 2 5 8 9 13 -4 10.1 -2.14
5 KR Reykjavik 10 3 1 6 7 15 18 -3 10.3 -3.32
6 IA Akranes 10 2 0 8 4 9 20 -11 9.5 -5.53

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
IBA Akureyri 955 13 10.05 +2.95 89.1% 1 5 8 10 12 15 20
Valur Reykjavik 951 14 9.99 +4.01 94.9% 1 5 8 10 12 15 19
KR Reykjavik 946 7 10.32 -3.32 16.2% 1 6 8 10 12 15 20
Fram Reykjavik 945 14 9.97 +4.03 94.6% 1 6 8 10 12 15 20
Keflavik IF 943 8 10.14 -2.14 27.6% 1 6 8 10 12 15 19
IA Akranes 924 4 9.53 -5.53 3.2% 0 5 8 10 11 14 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR IA IA KR KI VR
Fram Reykjavik —
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
2.71
0-2-0
2.73
0-2-0
2.72
IA Akranes
0-0-2
2.66
 —
0-0-2
2.67
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.66
IBA Akureyri
1-0-1
2.82
2-0-0
2.88
 —
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.76
KR Reykjavik
0-0-2
2.84
1-0-1
3.01
0-1-1
2.83
 —
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.85
Keflavik IF
0-2-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.73
 —
0-0-2
2.78
Valur Reykjavik
0-2-0
2.83
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.77
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.33%5.00%———20.00%
18.33%6.67%13.33%5.00%1.67%3.33%38.33%
25.00%13.33%3.33%1.67%3.33%—26.67%
3—5.00%1.67%———6.67%
4—1.67%3.33%———5.00%
5+—3.33%————3.33%
Total20.00%38.33%26.67%6.67%5.00%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.48
Mean allowed1.48
StdDev scored1.23
StdDev allowed1.23
Mean total goals/game2.97
Correlation (home vs away score)0.025
Sample size (games)30
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%————20.00%
1—20.00%————20.00%
2—40.00%10.00%———50.00%
3——10.00%———10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%70.00%20.00%———100%

Fram Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.10
StdDev scored0.97
StdDev allowed0.57
Mean total goals/game2.60
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.705
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—20.00%————20.00%
110.00%—30.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%70.00%
210.00%—————10.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%20.00%30.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

IA Akranes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.90
Mean allowed2.00
StdDev scored0.57
StdDev allowed1.63
Mean total goals/game2.90
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.000
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—————10.00%
110.00%—30.00%———40.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
3—20.00%————20.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+—10.00%————10.00%
Total20.00%50.00%30.00%———100%

IBA Akureyri — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.10
Mean allowed1.10
StdDev scored1.60
StdDev allowed0.74
Mean total goals/game3.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.009
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—20.00%———30.00%
110.00%—10.00%10.00%——30.00%
2———10.00%10.00%—20.00%
3—10.00%————10.00%
4———————
5+—10.00%————10.00%
Total20.00%20.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%—100%

KR Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.50
Mean allowed1.80
StdDev scored1.58
StdDev allowed1.32
Mean total goals/game3.30
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.000
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
110.00%10.00%—10.00%——30.00%
210.00%10.00%——10.00%—30.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%—100%

Keflavik IF — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.90
Mean allowed1.30
StdDev scored0.88
StdDev allowed1.34
Mean total goals/game2.20
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.218
Games played10
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
110.00%10.00%10.00%——10.00%40.00%
210.00%20.00%10.00%———40.00%
3———————
4——20.00%———20.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%30.00%40.00%——10.00%100%

Valur Reykjavik — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed1.60
StdDev scored1.15
StdDev allowed1.43
Mean total goals/game3.60
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.000
Games played10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Reykjavik 14 10.0 +4.03
2 Valur Reykjavik 14 10.0 +4.01
3 IBA Akureyri 13 10.1 +2.95
4 Keflavik IF 8 10.1 -2.14
5 KR Reykjavik 7 10.3 -3.32

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IA Akranes 4 9.5 -5.53
2 KR Reykjavik 7 10.3 -3.32
3 Keflavik IF 8 10.1 -2.14
4 IBA Akureyri 13 10.1 +2.95
5 Valur Reykjavik 14 10.0 +4.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 6 Jun 18 – Aug 2 1 in 281
2 Fram Reykjavik 3 Jul 27 – Sep 9 1 in 16
3 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 5 – Jun 14 1 in 6
4 Valur Reykjavik 2 Jun 4 – Jun 10 1 in 6
5 IA Akranes 1 Jul 16 – Jul 16 1 in 3

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IA Akranes 6 Jun 4 – Jul 9 1 in 263
2 KR Reykjavik 5 Jul 10 – Aug 28 1 in 142
3 IBA Akureyri 3 May 27 – Jun 10 1 in 15
4 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 30 – Sep 10 1 in 7
5 Fram Reykjavik 1 Jul 23 – Jul 23 1 in 3

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IBA Akureyri 7 Jun 18 – Sep 3 1 in 28
2 Fram Reykjavik 6 Jun 4 – Jul 17 1 in 21
3 Valur Reykjavik 4 Jun 4 – Jun 18 1 in 7
4 Keflavik IF 2 Jun 27 – Jul 9 1 in 3
5 KR Reykjavik 2 Jun 5 – Jun 14 1 in 3

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KR Reykjavik 6 Jul 10 – Sep 3 1 in 20
2 IA Akranes 6 Jun 4 – Jul 9 1 in 18
3 Keflavik IF 4 Jun 18 – Jul 16 1 in 7
4 Fram Reykjavik 4 Jun 27 – Jul 23 1 in 7
5 IBA Akureyri 3 May 27 – Jun 10 1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
Valur Reykjavik17.92%16.64%16.92%16.79%16.10%15.63%
Fram Reykjavik17.87%16.50%17.40%16.45%16.82%14.96%
IBA Akureyri20.55%18.61%17.11%15.70%15.08%12.95%
Keflavik IF15.28%17.44%17.16%17.35%16.51%16.26%
KR Reykjavik17.77%17.69%16.84%16.57%15.80%15.33%
IA Akranes10.61%13.12%14.57%17.14%19.69%24.87%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
IBA Akureyri 87.1% 13.0%
Fram Reykjavik 85.0% 15.0%
KR Reykjavik 84.7% 15.3%
Valur Reykjavik 84.4% 15.6%
Keflavik IF 83.7% 16.3%
IA Akranes 75.1% 24.9%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1967-05-27 IBA Akureyri W 2-1 950 941 42.4% 22.5% 35.1% +1.6 3
1967-05-27 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 941 950 35.1% 22.5% 42.4% -1.6 0
1967-06-04 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 939 938 41.3% 22.5% 36.1% -1.9 0
1967-06-04 @ IBA Akureyri W 2-1 938 939 36.1% 22.5% 41.3% +1.9 3
1967-06-04 IA Akranes W 1-0 944 939 41.9% 22.5% 35.6% +1.8 3
1967-06-04 @ Valur Reykjavik L 0-1 939 944 35.6% 22.5% 41.9% -1.8 0
1967-06-05 Keflavik IF W 1-0 953 951 41.4% 22.5% 36.0% +1.8 3
1967-06-05 @ KR Reykjavik L 0-1 951 953 36.0% 22.5% 41.4% -1.8 3
1967-06-10 Keflavik IF L 0-1 937 949 39.5% 22.6% 38.0% -1.9 0
1967-06-10 @ IA Akranes W 1-0 949 937 38.0% 22.6% 39.5% +1.9 6
1967-06-10 IBA Akureyri W 2-1 945 937 42.3% 22.5% 35.2% +1.6 6
1967-06-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 937 945 35.2% 22.5% 42.3% -1.6 0
1967-06-13 Valur Reykjavik D 2-2 940 947 40.3% 22.6% 37.2% -0.0 4
1967-06-13 @ Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 947 940 37.2% 22.6% 40.3% +0.0 7
1967-06-14 KR Reykjavik L 1-3 935 955 38.5% 22.5% 39.0% -3.0 0
1967-06-14 @ IA Akranes W 3-1 955 935 39.0% 22.5% 38.5% +3.0 6
1967-06-18 Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 932 940 40.1% 22.6% 37.4% -1.8 0
1967-06-18 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 940 932 37.4% 22.6% 40.1% +1.8 7
1967-06-18 Valur Reykjavik L 0-2 951 947 41.8% 22.5% 35.7% -3.7 6
1967-06-18 @ Keflavik IF W 2-0 947 951 35.7% 22.5% 41.8% +3.7 10
1967-06-18 IBA Akureyri L 1-3 958 936 44.3% 22.3% 33.4% -3.4 6
1967-06-18 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-1 936 958 33.4% 22.3% 44.3% +3.4 3
1967-06-26 Valur Reykjavik W 5-1 954 951 41.7% 22.5% 35.8% +5.2 9
1967-06-26 @ KR Reykjavik L 1-5 951 954 35.8% 22.5% 41.7% -5.2 10
1967-06-27 Keflavik IF D 1-1 942 948 40.4% 22.5% 37.0% -0.0 8
1967-06-27 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 948 942 37.0% 22.5% 40.4% +0.0 7
1967-06-27 IA Akranes W 4-1 939 930 42.5% 22.5% 35.1% +4.0 6
1967-06-27 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-4 930 939 35.1% 22.5% 42.5% -4.0 0
1967-07-09 IBA Akureyri L 1-5 926 943 38.8% 22.6% 38.6% -5.6 0
1967-07-09 @ IA Akranes W 5-1 943 926 38.6% 22.6% 38.8% +5.6 9
1967-07-09 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 948 942 42.0% 22.5% 35.5% -0.1 8
1967-07-09 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 942 948 35.5% 22.5% 42.0% +0.1 9
1967-07-10 KR Reykjavik W 4-2 945 959 39.2% 22.6% 38.2% +2.7 13
1967-07-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 959 945 38.2% 22.6% 39.2% -2.7 9
1967-07-16 Keflavik IF W 3-1 949 948 41.4% 22.5% 36.1% +2.9 12
1967-07-16 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-3 948 949 36.1% 22.5% 41.4% -2.9 8
1967-07-16 IA Akranes L 0-2 957 921 46.3% 22.1% 31.6% -4.1 9
1967-07-16 @ KR Reykjavik W 2-0 921 957 31.6% 22.1% 46.3% +4.0 3
1967-07-17 Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 948 942 42.1% 22.5% 35.4% -0.1 14
1967-07-17 @ Valur Reykjavik D 1-1 942 948 35.4% 22.5% 42.1% +0.1 10
1967-07-23 IBA Akureyri L 0-1 942 952 39.8% 22.6% 37.6% -1.9 10
1967-07-23 @ Fram Reykjavik W 1-0 952 942 37.6% 22.6% 39.8% +1.9 15
1967-07-23 Valur Reykjavik L 1-2 925 948 37.9% 22.5% 39.6% -1.7 3
1967-07-23 @ IA Akranes W 2-1 948 925 39.6% 22.5% 37.9% +1.7 17
1967-07-23 KR Reykjavik W 2-0 945 953 40.1% 22.6% 37.4% +3.4 11
1967-07-23 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 953 945 37.4% 22.6% 40.1% -3.4 9
1967-07-27 KR Reykjavik W 2-1 940 949 39.9% 22.6% 37.5% +1.7 13
1967-07-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 949 940 37.5% 22.6% 39.9% -1.7 9
1967-07-30 IA Akranes L 0-1 948 923 44.8% 22.3% 33.0% -2.1 11
1967-07-30 @ Keflavik IF W 1-0 923 948 33.0% 22.3% 44.8% +2.1 6
1967-08-02 Valur Reykjavik W 2-1 954 950 41.8% 22.5% 35.7% +1.7 18
1967-08-02 @ IBA Akureyri L 1-2 950 954 35.7% 22.5% 41.8% -1.7 17
1967-08-28 Fram Reykjavik L 2-3 948 942 42.0% 22.5% 35.5% -1.8 9
1967-08-28 @ KR Reykjavik W 3-2 942 948 35.5% 22.5% 42.0% +1.8 16
1967-09-03 KR Reykjavik D 0-0 955 946 42.6% 22.5% 35.0% -0.1 19
1967-09-03 @ IBA Akureyri D 0-0 946 955 35.0% 22.5% 42.6% +0.1 10
1967-09-09 IA Akranes W 2-1 944 925 43.8% 22.4% 33.8% +1.6 19
1967-09-09 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 925 944 33.8% 22.4% 43.8% -1.6 6
1967-09-10 Keflavik IF W 4-2 948 946 41.5% 22.5% 36.0% +2.6 20
1967-09-10 @ Valur Reykjavik L 2-4 946 948 36.0% 22.5% 41.5% -2.6 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1967-07-16 31.61% IA Akranes 921 2 @ KR Reykjavik 957 0
2 1967-07-30 32.97% IA Akranes 923 1 @ Keflavik IF 948 0
3 1967-06-18 33.38% IBA Akureyri 936 3 @ KR Reykjavik 958 1
4 1967-08-28 35.51% Fram Reykjavik 942 3 @ KR Reykjavik 948 2
5 1967-06-18 35.67% Valur Reykjavik 947 2 @ Keflavik IF 951 0
6 1967-06-04 36.14% Fram Reykjavik 938 2 @ IBA Akureyri 939 1
7 1967-06-18 37.39% Fram Reykjavik 940 2 @ IA Akranes 932 1
8 1967-07-23 37.61% IBA Akureyri 952 1 @ Fram Reykjavik 942 0
9 1967-06-10 37.99% Keflavik IF 949 1 @ IA Akranes 937 0
10 1967-07-09 38.65% IBA Akureyri 943 5 @ IA Akranes 926 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-07-09 5.58 IBA Akureyri 5 943 38.65% @ IA Akranes 1 926 38.80%
2 1967-06-26 5.23 @ KR Reykjavik 5 954 41.71% Valur Reykjavik 1 951 35.79%
3 1967-07-16 4.05 IA Akranes 2 921 31.61% @ KR Reykjavik 0 957 46.31%
4 1967-06-27 3.99 @ IBA Akureyri 4 939 42.48% IA Akranes 1 930 35.06%
5 1967-06-18 3.74 Valur Reykjavik 2 947 35.67% @ Keflavik IF 0 951 41.83%
6 1967-07-23 3.43 @ Keflavik IF 2 945 40.06% KR Reykjavik 0 953 37.39%
7 1967-06-18 3.39 IBA Akureyri 3 936 33.38% @ KR Reykjavik 1 958 44.30%
8 1967-06-14 3.03 KR Reykjavik 3 955 39.01% @ IA Akranes 1 935 38.45%
9 1967-07-16 2.88 @ IBA Akureyri 3 949 41.40% Keflavik IF 1 948 36.09%
10 1967-07-10 2.70 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 945 39.22% KR Reykjavik 2 959 38.23%
11 1967-09-10 2.58 @ Valur Reykjavik 4 948 41.52% Keflavik IF 2 946 35.97%
12 1967-07-30 2.10 IA Akranes 1 923 32.97% @ Keflavik IF 0 948 44.76%
13 1967-07-23 1.91 IBA Akureyri 1 952 37.61% @ Fram Reykjavik 0 942 39.84%
14 1967-06-10 1.90 Keflavik IF 1 949 37.99% @ IA Akranes 0 937 39.46%
15 1967-06-04 1.86 Fram Reykjavik 2 938 36.14% @ IBA Akureyri 1 939 41.35%
16 1967-06-18 1.81 Fram Reykjavik 2 940 37.39% @ IA Akranes 1 932 40.06%
17 1967-08-28 1.78 Fram Reykjavik 3 942 35.51% @ KR Reykjavik 2 948 42.00%
18 1967-06-05 1.77 @ KR Reykjavik 1 953 41.44% Keflavik IF 0 951 36.05%
19 1967-06-04 1.75 @ Valur Reykjavik 1 944 41.87% IA Akranes 0 939 35.63%
20 1967-07-23 1.74 Valur Reykjavik 2 948 39.57% @ IA Akranes 1 925 37.90%
21 1967-07-27 1.72 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 940 39.93% KR Reykjavik 1 949 37.52%
22 1967-08-02 1.66 @ IBA Akureyri 2 954 41.75% Valur Reykjavik 1 950 35.74%
23 1967-06-10 1.64 @ Valur Reykjavik 2 945 42.32% IBA Akureyri 1 937 35.21%
24 1967-05-27 1.63 @ Keflavik IF 2 950 42.43% IBA Akureyri 1 941 35.10%
25 1967-09-09 1.58 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 944 43.84% IA Akranes 1 925 33.79%