1890-91 The Football League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Everton

29 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Notts County

5.49 points above expected

26 points · 20.51 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

West Brom

6.79 points below expected

12 points · 18.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Everton Champion	22	14	1	7	29	63	29	+34	25.84	+3.16
2	Preston North End	22	12	3	7	27	44	23	+21	28.27	-1.27
3	Notts County	22	11	4	7	26	52	35	+17	20.51	+5.49
4	Wolverhampton	22	12	2	8	26	39	50	-11	23.51	+2.49
5	Bolton Wanderers	22	12	1	9	25	47	34	+13	20.58	+4.42
6	Blackburn Rovers	22	11	2	9	24	52	43	+9	24.78	-0.78
7	Sunderland*	22	10	5	7	23	51	31	+20	23.82	-0.82
8	Burnley	22	9	3	10	21	52	63	-11	18.77	+2.23
9	Aston Villa	22	7	4	11	18	45	58	-13	19.70	-1.70
10	Accrington	22	6	4	12	16	28	50	-22	18.84	-2.84
11	Derby County	22	7	1	14	15	47	81	-34	18.58	-3.58
12	West Brom	22	5	2	15	12	34	57	-23	18.79	-6.79

* Point deductions: Sunderland (-2 pts)

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Preston North End	1830	27	28.27	-1.27	41.7%	16	22	26	28	31	34	40
Sunderland	1822	23	23.82	-0.82	46.9%	10	18	21	24	26	30	37
Everton	1803	29	25.84	+3.16	84.2%	12	20	23	26	28	32	38
Notts County	1737	26	20.51	+5.49	94.8%	5	14	18	20	23	27	33
Blackburn Rovers	1719	24	24.78	-0.78	46.6%	11	19	22	25	27	31	39
Bolton Wanderers	1709	25	20.58	+4.42	91.4%	7	15	18	21	23	27	34
Wolverhampton	1650	26	23.51	+2.49	78.7%	7	17	21	23	26	30	39
Aston Villa	1648	18	19.70	-1.70	37.6%	7	14	17	20	22	26	34
Burnley	1634	21	18.77	+2.23	77.7%	5	13	16	19	21	25	31
Derby County	1606	15	18.58	-3.58	19.9%	5	12	16	19	21	25	34
West Brom	1568	12	18.79	-6.79	3.7%	3	13	16	19	21	25	33
Accrington	1558	16	18.84	-2.84	26.8%	5	13	16	19	21	25	33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ACC	AV	BR	BW	BUR	DC	EVE	NC	PNE	SUN	WB	WOL
Accrington	—	0-0-2 2.62	0-1-1 2.07	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 2.93	2-0-0 2.91	0-0-2 1.97	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 1.65	1-1-0 1.93	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.43
Aston Villa	2-0-0 3.12	—	0-1-1 2.17	1-0-1 2.86	0-1-1 3.03	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 1.85	1-0-1 2.97	0-0-2 1.76	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.64
Blackburn Rovers	1-1-0 3.68	1-1-0 3.58	—	0-0-2 3.23	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.48	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 3.40	2-0-0 2.33	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 4.02	0-0-2 3.06
Bolton Wanderers	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 2.89	2-0-0 2.51	—	2-0-0 3.01	1-1-0 3.14	0-0-2 2.39	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 1.79	0-0-2 2.18	2-0-0 3.14	1-0-1 2.52
Burnley	1-1-0 2.81	1-1-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.25	0-0-2 2.74	—	2-0-0 2.87	1-0-1 1.88	0-0-2 2.56	1-0-1 1.59	1-1-0 2.17	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.17
Derby County	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 3.00	1-0-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.60	0-0-2 2.87	—	0-0-2 1.86	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-2 1.86	1-0-1 1.71	2-0-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.22
Everton	2-0-0 3.77	1-1-0 3.90	1-0-1 2.92	2-0-0 3.36	1-0-1 3.87	2-0-0 3.88	—	1-0-1 3.61	0-0-2 2.74	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 3.32	2-0-0 3.04
Notts County	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.18	1-0-1 3.28	1-0-1 2.14	—	1-1-0 2.01	1-0-1 2.31	1-1-0 2.94	0-2-0 2.53
Preston North End	1-1-0 4.10	2-0-0 3.99	0-0-2 3.42	1-0-1 3.96	1-0-1 4.16	2-0-0 3.90	2-0-0 3.01	0-1-1 3.74	—	0-1-1 3.09	2-0-0 4.27	1-0-1 3.49
Sunderland	0-1-1 3.82	1-1-0 3.62	1-0-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.57	0-1-1 3.58	1-0-1 4.04	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 3.44	1-1-0 2.65	—	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.11
West Brom	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 1.73	0-0-2 2.61	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 2.43	0-1-1 2.81	0-0-2 1.48	0-1-1 2.13	—	0-0-2 2.17
Wolverhampton	2-0-0 3.32	1-0-1 3.10	2-0-0 2.69	1-0-1 3.22	1-0-1 3.58	1-0-1 3.53	0-0-2 2.71	0-2-0 3.22	1-0-1 2.26	1-0-1 2.64	2-0-0 3.57	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.39	+3.6
Allowed	0.58	-2.4
Differential	0.74	+2.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.03%	5.30%	3.03%	1.89%	3.41%	4.55%	21.21%
1	5.30%	5.30%	5.30%	5.68%	1.14%	4.17%	26.89%
2	3.03%	5.30%	2.27%	3.41%	1.89%	1.89%	17.80%
3	1.89%	5.68%	3.41%	0.76%	0.76%	0.38%	12.88%
4	3.41%	1.14%	1.89%	0.76%	0.76%	0.76%	8.71%
5+	4.55%	4.17%	1.89%	0.38%	0.76%	0.76%	12.50%
Total	21.21%	26.89%	17.80%	12.88%	8.71%	12.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.10	2.10	+0.00
SD	1.91	1.91	3.01
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	22.73%	22.73%	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	2.27	-1.00
SD	1.20	1.67	2.47
CV	0.94	0.73	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	22.73%
1	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	13.64%	27.27%
2	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	13.64%	27.27%	—	18.18%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.64	-0.59
SD	1.79	2.04	3.13
CV	0.87	0.77	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
Total	18.18%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.95	+0.41
SD	2.24	2.03	3.08
CV	0.95	1.04	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	22.73%	4.55%	—	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.55	+0.59
SD	2.17	1.65	3.19
CV	1.01	1.07	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
3	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
Total	4.55%	22.73%	27.27%	13.64%	13.64%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	2.86	-0.50
SD	1.89	1.98	2.91
CV	0.80	0.69	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	9.09%	13.64%	22.73%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	13.64%	36.36%
2	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
Total	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	18.18%	36.36%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	3.68	-1.55
SD	2.47	2.19	3.90
CV	1.16	0.59	—
Max	9	8	+9
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
Total	31.82%	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.86	1.32	+1.55
SD	2.21	1.13	2.60
CV	0.77	0.86	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	—	13.64%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	31.82%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	45.45%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.59	+0.77
SD	1.92	1.33	2.62
CV	0.81	0.84	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
3	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	40.91%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.05	+0.95
SD	2.05	1.40	2.68
CV	1.02	1.34	—
Max	7	6	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	1.41	+0.91
SD	1.62	1.40	2.18
CV	0.70	1.00	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
2	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	2.59	-1.05
SD	1.50	1.76	2.46
CV	0.97	0.68	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%	22.73%
1	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	31.82%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	2.27	-0.50
SD	1.45	2.53	3.39
CV	0.82	1.11	—
Max	5	9	+4
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Notts County	26	20.51	+5.49
2	Bolton Wanderers	25	20.58	+4.42
3	Everton	29	25.84	+3.16
4	Wolverhampton	26	23.51	+2.49
5	Burnley	21	18.77	+2.23

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	West Brom	12	18.79	-6.79
2	Derby County	15	18.58	-3.58
3	Accrington	16	18.84	-2.84
4	Aston Villa	18	19.70	-1.70
5	Preston North End	27	28.27	-1.27

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Blackburn Rovers	4	Oct 4 – Oct 25	1 in 93
2	Everton	5	Sep 6 – Oct 4	1 in 87
3	Bolton Wanderers	4	Mar 7 – Mar 28	1 in 29
4	Notts County	4	Nov 29 – Dec 20	1 in 20
5	Preston North End	5	Dec 20 – Feb 7	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Blackburn Rovers	4	Mar 7 – Mar 28	1 in 320
2	West Brom	7	Nov 22 – Feb 7	1 in 103
3	Burnley	4	Oct 4 – Oct 25	1 in 36
4	Everton	3	Oct 25 – Nov 8	1 in 34
5	Accrington	4	Sep 20 – Oct 11	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Accrington	4	Oct 18 – Nov 8	1 in 46
2	Everton	7	Sep 6 – Oct 18	1 in 40
3	Burnley	4	Sep 6 – Sep 27	1 in 27
4	Notts County	6	Sep 20 – Oct 18	1 in 26
5	Blackburn Rovers	4	Oct 4 – Oct 25	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	West Brom	10	Nov 1 – Feb 7	1 in 220
2	Preston North End	4	Oct 25 – Nov 15	1 in 68
3	Blackburn Rovers	4	Mar 7 – Mar 28	1 in 43
4	Burnley	5	Sep 27 – Oct 25	1 in 23
5	Accrington	7	Sep 6 – Oct 18	1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Everton	22.91%	21.72%	17.26%	12.29%	8.89%	6.00%	4.14%	2.84%	1.79%	1.13%	0.72%	0.31%
Preston North End	45.08%	23.73%	13.00%	7.96%	4.04%	2.64%	1.60%	0.91%	0.59%	0.33%	0.10%	0.02%
Notts County	1.56%	3.93%	6.67%	7.67%	10.02%	11.62%	10.99%	11.39%	10.91%	9.91%	8.51%	6.82%
Wolverhampton	6.29%	10.39%	12.48%	14.73%	12.79%	11.54%	9.66%	7.12%	6.18%	4.21%	2.95%	1.66%
Bolton Wanderers	1.57%	3.33%	6.28%	7.94%	10.19%	11.47%	12.49%	11.99%	10.78%	9.35%	8.42%	6.19%
Blackburn Rovers	11.31%	17.04%	16.79%	14.69%	12.46%	8.93%	6.43%	4.64%	3.46%	2.20%	1.37%	0.68%
Sunderland	8.82%	13.41%	14.96%	14.94%	12.93%	10.20%	8.03%	6.01%	4.41%	3.11%	2.07%	1.11%
Burnley	0.42%	1.14%	2.56%	3.87%	5.49%	7.86%	10.27%	11.15%	12.42%	14.04%	14.84%	15.94%
Aston Villa	0.77%	1.85%	3.55%	5.32%	7.50%	9.25%	10.93%	11.96%	12.48%	12.87%	13.31%	10.21%
Accrington	0.54%	1.39%	2.45%	3.83%	5.85%	7.19%	8.42%	10.55%	12.15%	14.16%	15.30%	18.17%
Derby County	0.31%	0.97%	1.97%	3.12%	4.92%	6.18%	8.09%	10.21%	12.71%	13.52%	16.78%	21.22%
West Brom	0.42%	1.10%	2.03%	3.64%	4.92%	7.12%	8.95%	11.23%	12.12%	15.17%	15.63%	17.67%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+36.36%

Strong Edge

62.12%12.12%25.76%

Elo Value

Home Edge

124 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0132.40400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.21 goals

Strong Home

-2+1.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.6

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

23%

Everton, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.94 * Some Luck: 2.94 to 4.41 * Lucky: 4.41 to 5.88 * Wild Swing: 5.88 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.83 * Close: 1.83 to 2.74 * Off: 2.74 to 3.65 * Way Off: 3.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.46 points

Some Luck

03.689

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

02.285

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

94.76%

Notts County

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.73%

West Brom

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.15

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

67%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

83%

Strong Edge

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

43%

Frequent

0%38%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Very Frequent

0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.472

Matchup Imbalance

0.53

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.89

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.48

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.78

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.82

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.075

Well Within Noise

00.1100.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Preston North End	98.96%	1.04%
Everton	96.05%	3.95%
Blackburn Rovers	92.29%	7.71%
Sunderland	89.30%	10.70%
Wolverhampton	85.00%	15.00%
Bolton Wanderers	65.26%	34.74%
Notts County	63.85%	36.15%
Aston Villa	51.13%	48.87%
Burnley	42.76%	57.24%
Accrington	40.22%	59.78%
West Brom	39.41%	60.59%
Derby County	35.77%	64.23%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1890-09-06	Burnley	D 1-1	1639	1633	68.84%	12.73%	18.43%	-2.0	1
1890-09-06	@ Accrington	D 1-1	1633	1639	18.43%	12.73%	68.84%	+2.0	1
1890-09-06	Notts County	W 4-2	1667	1634	71.12%	12.68%	16.20%	+4.3	2
1890-09-06	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 2-4	1634	1667	16.20%	12.68%	71.12%	-4.3	0
1890-09-06	Blackburn Rovers	W 8-5	1655	1734	60.10%	12.84%	27.06%	+8.0	2
1890-09-06	@ Derby County	L 5-8	1734	1655	27.06%	12.84%	60.10%	-8.0	0
1890-09-06	Everton	L 1-4	1656	1699	64.15%	12.80%	23.05%	-23.8	0
1890-09-06	@ West Brom	W 4-1	1699	1656	23.05%	12.80%	64.15%	+23.9	2
1890-09-06	Aston Villa	W 2-1	1712	1662	72.43%	12.64%	14.93%	+2.5	2
1890-09-06	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1662	1712	14.93%	12.64%	72.43%	-2.5	0
1890-09-13	Burnley	L 2-3	1767	1635	77.75%	12.42%	9.83%	-11.2	0
1890-09-13	@ Sunderland	W 3-2	1635	1767	9.83%	12.42%	77.75%	+11.3	3
1890-09-13	Notts County	W 3-2	1660	1630	70.88%	12.69%	16.44%	+2.6	2
1890-09-13	@ Aston Villa	L 2-3	1630	1660	16.44%	12.69%	70.88%	-2.7	0
1890-09-13	Accrington	D 0-0	1726	1637	75.24%	12.54%	12.22%	-2.9	1
1890-09-13	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 0-0	1637	1726	12.22%	12.54%	75.24%	+2.9	2
1890-09-13	Derby County	W 3-1	1671	1663	69.08%	12.73%	18.19%	+5.3	4
1890-09-13	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-3	1663	1671	18.19%	12.73%	69.08%	-5.3	2
1890-09-13	Wolverhampton	W 5-0	1723	1714	69.08%	12.73%	18.19%	+14.4	4
1890-09-13	@ Everton	L 0-5	1714	1723	18.19%	12.73%	69.08%	-14.4	2
1890-09-13	West Brom	W 3-0	1826	1632	80.70%	12.20%	7.11%	+3.6	2
1890-09-13	@ Preston North End	L 0-3	1632	1826	7.11%	12.20%	80.70%	-3.6	0
1890-09-15	Wolverhampton	L 3-4	1756	1700	72.91%	12.63%	14.46%	-10.3	0
1890-09-15	@ Sunderland	W 4-3	1700	1756	14.46%	12.63%	72.91%	+10.3	4
1890-09-20	Everton	L 0-5	1677	1737	62.25%	12.82%	24.93%	-44.2	4
1890-09-20	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 5-0	1737	1677	24.93%	12.82%	62.25%	+44.2	6
1890-09-20	Aston Villa	W 2-1	1646	1662	66.81%	12.77%	20.42%	+3.4	5
1890-09-20	@ Burnley	L 1-2	1662	1646	20.42%	12.77%	66.81%	-3.4	2
1890-09-20	Preston North End	L 1-3	1657	1830	48.15%	12.85%	39.01%	-12.8	2
1890-09-20	@ Derby County	W 3-1	1830	1657	39.01%	12.85%	48.15%	+12.8	4
1890-09-20	Accrington	W 5-0	1627	1639	67.21%	12.76%	20.03%	+15.7	2
1890-09-20	@ Notts County	L 0-5	1639	1627	20.03%	12.76%	67.21%	-15.7	2
1890-09-20	Sunderland	L 0-4	1629	1746	55.56%	12.85%	31.58%	-32.1	0
1890-09-20	@ West Brom	W 4-0	1746	1629	31.58%	12.85%	55.56%	+32.1	2
1890-09-22	Notts County	D 1-1	1710	1643	73.71%	12.60%	13.69%	-2.4	5
1890-09-22	@ Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1643	1710	13.69%	12.60%	73.71%	+2.4	3
1890-09-27	Everton	L 1-2	1624	1781	50.22%	12.85%	36.93%	-7.7	2
1890-09-27	@ Accrington	W 2-1	1781	1624	36.93%	12.85%	50.22%	+7.7	8
1890-09-27	West Brom	L 0-4	1659	1596	73.39%	12.61%	14.00%	-42.4	2
1890-09-27	@ Aston Villa	W 4-0	1596	1659	14.00%	12.61%	73.39%	+42.4	2
1890-09-27	Sunderland	D 3-3	1650	1778	54.13%	12.86%	33.01%	-0.5	6
1890-09-27	@ Burnley	D 3-3	1778	1650	33.01%	12.86%	54.13%	+0.5	3
1890-09-27	Derby County	W 2-1	1646	1645	68.41%	12.74%	18.85%	+3.2	5
1890-09-27	@ Notts County	L 1-2	1645	1646	18.85%	12.74%	68.41%	-3.2	2
1890-09-27	Bolton Wanderers	W 1-0	1843	1632	81.35%	12.13%	6.52%	+1.2	6
1890-09-27	@ Preston North End	L 0-1	1632	1843	6.52%	12.13%	81.35%	-1.2	4
1890-09-27	Wolverhampton	L 2-3	1723	1708	69.71%	12.71%	17.58%	-10.1	1
1890-09-27	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1708	1723	17.58%	12.71%	69.71%	+10.0	7
1890-10-02	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-1	1649	1631	69.87%	12.71%	17.42%	+5.1	7
1890-10-02	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1631	1649	17.42%	12.71%	69.87%	-5.1	4
1890-10-04	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1844	1713	77.67%	12.42%	9.91%	-11.8	6
1890-10-04	@ Preston North End	W 2-1	1713	1844	9.91%	12.42%	77.67%	+11.9	3
1890-10-04	Derby County	W 7-0	1789	1641	78.55%	12.37%	9.08%	+10.1	10
1890-10-04	@ Everton	L 0-7	1641	1789	9.08%	12.37%	78.55%	-10.1	2
1890-10-04	Burnley	W 3-1	1639	1649	67.39%	12.76%	19.86%	+5.8	4
1890-10-04	@ West Brom	L 1-3	1649	1639	19.86%	12.76%	67.39%	-5.8	6
1890-10-04	Accrington	W 3-0	1718	1616	76.00%	12.51%	11.49%	+5.8	9
1890-10-04	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-3	1616	1718	11.49%	12.51%	76.00%	-5.8	2
1890-10-04	Aston Villa	W 4-0	1626	1617	69.17%	12.72%	18.11%	+11.6	6
1890-10-04	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-4	1617	1626	18.11%	12.72%	69.17%	-11.6	2
1890-10-11	Sunderland	W 3-2	1725	1778	63.08%	12.81%	24.11%	+3.8	5
1890-10-11	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-3	1778	1725	24.11%	12.81%	63.08%	-3.8	3
1890-10-11	Preston North End	L 1-3	1610	1832	41.14%	12.81%	46.05%	-11.2	2
1890-10-11	@ Accrington	W 3-1	1832	1610	46.05%	12.81%	41.14%	+11.2	8
1890-10-11	Everton	D 2-2	1605	1799	45.11%	12.84%	42.05%	-0.1	3
1890-10-11	@ Aston Villa	D 2-2	1799	1605	42.05%	12.84%	45.11%	+0.1	11
1890-10-11	West Brom	W 3-2	1654	1645	69.15%	12.73%	18.13%	+2.9	9
1890-10-11	@ Notts County	L 2-3	1645	1654	18.13%	12.73%	69.15%	-2.9	4
1890-10-11	Derby County	W 5-1	1724	1631	75.40%	12.54%	12.06%	+6.6	11
1890-10-11	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-5	1631	1724	12.06%	12.54%	75.40%	-6.6	2
1890-10-11	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1643	1638	68.83%	12.73%	18.44%	-10.5	6
1890-10-11	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1638	1643	18.44%	12.73%	68.83%	+10.5	8
1890-10-18	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-6	1633	1729	58.14%	12.85%	29.02%	-34.2	6
1890-10-18	@ Burnley	W 6-1	1729	1633	29.02%	12.85%	58.14%	+34.2	7
1890-10-18	Aston Villa	W 5-4	1625	1605	70.06%	12.71%	17.23%	+2.7	4
1890-10-18	@ Derby County	L 4-5	1605	1625	17.23%	12.71%	70.06%	-2.7	3
1890-10-18	Accrington	D 2-2	1774	1599	79.88%	12.27%	7.85%	-2.2	4
1890-10-18	@ Sunderland	D 2-2	1599	1774	7.85%	12.27%	79.88%	+2.2	3
1890-10-18	Notts County	D 1-1	1642	1657	66.93%	12.76%	20.31%	-1.9	5
1890-10-18	@ West Brom	D 1-1	1657	1642	20.31%	12.76%	66.93%	+1.8	10
1890-10-18	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-0	1799	1648	78.73%	12.35%	8.91%	+3.1	13
1890-10-18	@ Everton	L 0-2	1648	1799	8.91%	12.35%	78.73%	-3.1	8
1890-10-18	Wolverhampton	W 5-1	1843	1730	76.69%	12.47%	10.83%	+5.9	10
1890-10-18	@ Preston North End	L 1-5	1730	1843	10.83%	12.47%	76.69%	-5.9	11
1890-10-25	Preston North End	W 1-0	1763	1849	59.34%	12.84%	27.82%	+4.8	9
1890-10-25	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-1	1849	1763	27.82%	12.84%	59.34%	-4.8	10
1890-10-25	Notts County	W 3-2	1601	1659	62.61%	12.82%	24.58%	+3.8	5
1890-10-25	@ Accrington	L 2-3	1659	1601	24.58%	12.82%	62.61%	-3.9	10
1890-10-25	Derby County	W 4-0	1602	1627	65.94%	12.78%	21.28%	+13.5	5
1890-10-25	@ Aston Villa	L 0-4	1627	1602	21.28%	12.78%	65.94%	-13.5	4
1890-10-25	West Brom	L 2-3	1802	1640	79.28%	12.31%	8.40%	-11.5	13
1890-10-25	@ Everton	W 3-2	1640	1802	8.40%	12.31%	79.28%	+11.5	7
1890-10-25	Sunderland	L 2-5	1645	1772	54.26%	12.86%	32.89%	-17.6	8
1890-10-25	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 5-2	1772	1645	32.89%	12.86%	54.26%	+17.6	6
1890-10-25	Burnley	W 3-1	1724	1599	77.39%	12.44%	10.17%	+3.0	13
1890-10-25	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-3	1599	1724	10.17%	12.44%	77.39%	-3.0	6
1890-11-01	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-1	1790	1768	70.22%	12.70%	17.08%	+5.0	8
1890-11-01	@ Sunderland	L 1-3	1768	1790	17.08%	12.70%	70.22%	-5.0	9
1890-11-01	Everton	W 3-1	1655	1791	53.10%	12.86%	34.04%	+9.5	12
1890-11-01	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1791	1655	34.04%	12.86%	53.10%	-9.5	13
1890-11-01	Accrington	D 1-1	1845	1605	82.40%	12.01%	5.59%	-3.2	11
1890-11-01	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1605	1845	5.59%	12.01%	82.40%	+3.2	6
1890-11-01	Aston Villa	L 0-3	1651	1616	71.36%	12.67%	15.97%	-31.5	7
1890-11-01	@ West Brom	W 3-0	1616	1651	15.97%	12.67%	71.36%	+31.5	7
1890-11-01	Wolverhampton	W 4-2	1595	1727	53.67%	12.86%	33.47%	+8.3	8
1890-11-01	@ Burnley	L 2-4	1727	1595	33.47%	12.86%	53.67%	-8.3	13
1890-11-03	Bolton Wanderers	L 2-4	1620	1627	67.63%	12.75%	19.62%	-15.9	7
1890-11-03	@ West Brom	W 4-2	1627	1620	19.62%	12.75%	67.63%	+15.9	10
1890-11-08	Everton	W 2-1	1763	1781	66.61%	12.77%	20.62%	+3.5	11
1890-11-08	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1781	1763	20.62%	12.77%	66.61%	-3.5	13
1890-11-08	Notts County	D 0-0	1841	1664	79.96%	12.26%	7.78%	-3.3	12
1890-11-08	@ Preston North End	D 0-0	1664	1841	7.78%	12.26%	79.96%	+3.3	13
1890-11-08	Derby County	W 4-0	1608	1614	67.82%	12.75%	19.43%	+12.4	8
1890-11-08	@ Accrington	L 0-4	1614	1608	19.43%	12.75%	67.82%	-12.4	4
1890-11-08	Burnley	D 4-4	1647	1604	71.96%	12.66%	15.38%	-1.2	8
1890-11-08	@ Aston Villa	D 4-4	1604	1647	15.38%	12.66%	71.96%	+1.2	9
1890-11-08	West Brom	D 1-1	1795	1604	80.55%	12.21%	7.24%	-3.0	9
1890-11-08	@ Sunderland	D 1-1	1604	1795	7.24%	12.21%	80.55%	+3.0	8
1890-11-08	Bolton Wanderers	W 1-0	1719	1643	74.30%	12.58%	13.12%	+2.4	15
1890-11-08	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-1	1643	1719	13.12%	12.58%	74.30%	-2.4	10
1890-11-15	Derby County	W 6-1	1605	1601	68.65%	12.73%	18.61%	+12.2	11
1890-11-15	@ Burnley	L 1-6	1601	1605	18.61%	12.73%	68.65%	-12.2	4
1890-11-15	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1667	1766	57.80%	12.85%	29.35%	-8.8	13
1890-11-15	@ Notts County	W 2-1	1766	1667	29.35%	12.85%	57.80%	+8.8	13
1890-11-15	Accrington	W 3-1	1646	1621	70.51%	12.69%	16.79%	+4.9	10
1890-11-15	@ Aston Villa	L 1-3	1621	1646	16.79%	12.69%	70.51%	-4.9	8
1890-11-15	Sunderland	W 1-0	1778	1792	67.04%	12.76%	20.20%	+3.6	15
1890-11-15	@ Everton	L 0-1	1792	1778	20.20%	12.76%	67.04%	-3.6	9
1890-11-15	Preston North End	W 1-0	1641	1838	44.70%	12.83%	42.47%	+7.0	12
1890-11-15	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1838	1641	42.47%	12.83%	44.70%	-7.0	12
1890-11-22	Burnley	W 5-2	1775	1617	79.07%	12.33%	8.60%	+3.2	15
1890-11-22	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-5	1617	1775	8.60%	12.33%	79.07%	-3.2	11
1890-11-22	West Brom	W 3-1	1589	1607	66.68%	12.77%	20.56%	+6.0	6
1890-11-22	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1607	1589	20.56%	12.77%	66.68%	-6.0	8
1890-11-22	Sunderland	W 4-1	1616	1788	48.19%	12.85%	38.97%	+15.1	10
1890-11-22	@ Accrington	L 1-4	1788	1616	38.97%	12.85%	48.19%	-15.1	9
1890-11-22	Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1659	1721	62.03%	12.82%	25.15%	-1.4	14
1890-11-22	@ Notts County	D 1-1	1721	1659	25.15%	12.82%	62.03%	+1.4	16
1890-11-22	Everton	W 2-0	1831	1781	72.43%	12.64%	14.92%	+5.1	14
1890-11-22	@ Preston North End	L 0-2	1781	1831	14.92%	12.64%	72.43%	-5.1	15
1890-11-22	Bolton Wanderers	W 5-0	1651	1648	68.59%	12.74%	18.68%	+14.7	12
1890-11-22	@ Aston Villa	L 0-5	1648	1651	18.68%	12.74%	68.59%	-14.7	12
1890-11-29	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-1	1776	1778	68.14%	12.74%	19.12%	+5.6	17
1890-11-29	@ Everton	L 1-3	1778	1776	19.12%	12.74%	68.14%	-5.6	15
1890-11-29	Derby County	L 3-4	1601	1595	68.84%	12.73%	18.43%	-9.7	8
1890-11-29	@ West Brom	W 4-3	1595	1601	18.43%	12.73%	68.84%	+9.7	8
1890-11-29	Accrington	W 2-0	1614	1631	66.76%	12.77%	20.47%	+6.9	13
1890-11-29	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1631	1614	20.47%	12.77%	66.76%	-6.9	10
1890-11-29	Aston Villa	W 7-1	1657	1666	67.56%	12.75%	19.69%	+15.2	16
1890-11-29	@ Notts County	L 1-7	1666	1657	19.69%	12.75%	67.56%	-15.2	12
1890-11-29	Preston North End	W 2-0	1723	1836	56.02%	12.85%	31.13%	+10.1	18
1890-11-29	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1836	1723	31.13%	12.85%	56.02%	-10.1	14
1890-12-06	Preston North End	W 2-1	1672	1826	50.76%	12.85%	36.38%	+5.8	18
1890-12-06	@ Notts County	L 1-2	1826	1672	36.38%	12.85%	50.76%	-5.8	14
1890-12-06	Aston Villa	W 5-1	1773	1650	77.21%	12.45%	10.34%	+5.7	17
1890-12-06	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-5	1650	1773	10.34%	12.45%	77.21%	-5.7	12
1890-12-06	West Brom	W 5-4	1621	1591	70.87%	12.69%	16.44%	+2.5	15
1890-12-06	@ Burnley	L 4-5	1591	1621	16.44%	12.69%	70.87%	-2.5	8
1890-12-06	Accrington	L 1-2	1605	1624	66.54%	12.77%	20.69%	-10.1	8
1890-12-06	@ Derby County	W 2-1	1624	1605	20.69%	12.77%	66.54%	+10.1	12
1890-12-06	Everton	L 0-1	1733	1782	63.48%	12.81%	23.71%	-10.2	18
1890-12-06	@ Wolverhampton	W 1-0	1782	1733	23.71%	12.81%	63.48%	+10.2	19
1890-12-13	Everton	L 2-6	1595	1792	44.66%	12.83%	42.50%	-18.6	8
1890-12-13	@ Derby County	W 6-2	1792	1595	42.50%	12.83%	44.66%	+18.6	21
1890-12-13	Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1645	1779	53.41%	12.86%	33.74%	-0.6	13
1890-12-13	@ Aston Villa	D 2-2	1779	1645	33.74%	12.86%	53.41%	+0.6	18
1890-12-13	Accrington	W 6-0	1633	1634	68.25%	12.74%	19.01%	+17.8	14
1890-12-13	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-6	1634	1633	19.01%	12.74%	68.25%	-17.8	12
1890-12-13	Wolverhampton	L 0-1	1589	1723	53.39%	12.86%	33.75%	-8.6	8
1890-12-13	@ West Brom	W 1-0	1723	1589	33.75%	12.86%	53.39%	+8.7	20
1890-12-15	Sunderland	W 2-1	1678	1773	58.30%	12.85%	28.85%	+4.7	20
1890-12-15	@ Notts County	L 1-2	1773	1678	28.85%	12.85%	58.30%	-4.7	9
1890-12-20	Notts County	L 0-1	1623	1683	62.37%	12.82%	24.81%	-10.0	15
1890-12-20	@ Burnley	W 1-0	1683	1623	24.81%	12.82%	62.37%	+10.0	22
1890-12-20	Derby County	W 6-0	1820	1576	82.55%	11.99%	5.45%	+5.3	16
1890-12-20	@ Preston North End	L 0-6	1576	1820	5.45%	11.99%	82.55%	-5.3	8
1890-12-20	West Brom	W 2-1	1779	1580	80.89%	12.18%	6.93%	+1.2	20
1890-12-20	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1580	1779	6.93%	12.18%	80.89%	-1.2	8
1890-12-20	Everton	W 1-0	1768	1811	64.19%	12.80%	23.01%	+4.1	11
1890-12-20	@ Sunderland	L 0-1	1811	1768	23.01%	12.80%	64.19%	-4.0	21
1890-12-26	Bolton Wanderers	D 1-1	1571	1651	60.05%	12.84%	27.12%	-1.3	9
1890-12-26	@ Derby County	D 1-1	1651	1571	27.12%	12.84%	60.05%	+1.3	15
1890-12-26	Sunderland	D 0-0	1644	1772	54.13%	12.86%	33.01%	-0.9	14
1890-12-26	@ Aston Villa	D 0-0	1772	1644	33.01%	12.86%	54.13%	+0.9	12
1890-12-26	Accrington	W 3-2	1807	1616	80.53%	12.21%	7.25%	+1.2	23
1890-12-26	@ Everton	L 2-3	1616	1807	7.25%	12.21%	80.53%	-1.2	12
1890-12-26	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1731	1780	63.49%	12.81%	23.70%	+7.9	22
1890-12-26	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1780	1731	23.70%	12.81%	63.49%	-7.9	20
1890-12-27	Notts County	W 3-1	1570	1693	54.76%	12.86%	32.39%	+9.0	11
1890-12-27	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1693	1570	32.39%	12.86%	54.76%	-9.0	22
1890-12-27	Sunderland	L 0-3	1739	1773	65.04%	12.79%	22.17%	-28.7	22
1890-12-27	@ Wolverhampton	W 3-0	1773	1739	22.17%	12.79%	65.04%	+28.7	14
1890-12-27	Burnley	W 7-3	1808	1613	80.70%	12.20%	7.10%	+3.0	25
1890-12-27	@ Everton	L 3-7	1613	1808	7.10%	12.20%	80.70%	-3.0	15
1890-12-29	Wolverhampton	W 6-0	1652	1710	62.52%	12.82%	24.66%	+22.7	17
1890-12-29	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-6	1710	1652	24.66%	12.82%	62.52%	-22.7	22
1891-01-01	Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1615	1688	60.90%	12.83%	26.27%	-9.2	12
1891-01-01	@ Accrington	W 2-1	1688	1615	26.27%	12.83%	60.90%	+9.2	24
1891-01-01	Aston Villa	W 5-0	1811	1643	79.52%	12.30%	8.18%	+6.6	27
1891-01-01	@ Everton	L 0-5	1643	1811	8.18%	12.30%	79.52%	-6.7	14
1891-01-03	West Brom	W 4-0	1697	1579	76.97%	12.46%	10.57%	+6.9	26
1891-01-03	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-4	1579	1697	10.57%	12.46%	76.97%	-6.9	8
1891-01-03	Derby County	W 8-0	1772	1579	80.67%	12.20%	7.13%	+9.1	22
1891-01-03	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-8	1579	1772	7.13%	12.20%	80.67%	-9.1	11
1891-01-03	Notts County	W 4-2	1818	1684	77.83%	12.41%	9.76%	+2.6	29
1891-01-03	@ Everton	L 2-4	1684	1818	9.76%	12.41%	77.83%	-2.6	22
1891-01-10	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-1	1606	1675	61.30%	12.83%	25.87%	+4.3	14
1891-01-10	@ Accrington	L 1-2	1675	1606	25.87%	12.83%	61.30%	-4.3	17
1891-01-10	Aston Villa	W 5-1	1802	1637	79.42%	12.30%	8.28%	+4.5	16
1891-01-10	@ Sunderland	L 1-5	1637	1802	8.28%	12.30%	79.42%	-4.6	14
1891-01-10	Wolverhampton	W 9-0	1570	1704	53.33%	12.86%	33.81%	+44.3	13
1891-01-10	@ Derby County	L 0-9	1704	1570	33.81%	12.86%	53.33%	-44.4	26
1891-01-10	Preston North End	L 0-1	1820	1825	67.84%	12.75%	19.41%	-10.9	29
1891-01-10	@ Everton	W 1-0	1825	1820	19.41%	12.75%	67.84%	+10.9	18
1891-01-24	Notts County	W 4-0	1807	1681	77.37%	12.44%	10.19%	+6.7	18
1891-01-24	@ Sunderland	L 0-4	1681	1807	10.19%	12.44%	77.37%	-6.7	22
1891-01-24	Aston Villa	W 4-1	1836	1632	81.10%	12.16%	6.74%	+2.9	20
1891-01-24	@ Preston North End	L 1-4	1632	1836	6.74%	12.16%	81.10%	-2.9	14
1891-01-24	Burnley	L 2-4	1614	1610	68.65%	12.73%	18.62%	-16.2	13
1891-01-24	@ Derby County	W 4-2	1610	1614	18.62%	12.73%	68.65%	+16.1	17
1891-02-05	Burnley	W 7-0	1839	1627	81.43%	12.12%	6.44%	+7.2	22
1891-02-05	@ Preston North End	L 0-7	1627	1839	6.44%	12.12%	81.43%	-7.2	17
1891-02-07	Preston North End	L 1-3	1572	1847	33.98%	12.74%	53.28%	-9.4	8
1891-02-07	@ West Brom	W 3-1	1847	1572	53.28%	12.74%	33.98%	+9.4	24
1891-02-07	Sunderland	W 3-1	1598	1813	42.08%	12.82%	45.10%	+12.1	15
1891-02-07	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1813	1598	45.10%	12.82%	42.08%	-12.1	18
1891-02-10	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-0	1801	1671	77.65%	12.42%	9.92%	+3.4	20
1891-02-10	@ Sunderland	L 0-2	1671	1801	9.92%	12.42%	77.65%	-3.4	17
1891-02-10	Burnley	W 4-0	1675	1619	72.86%	12.63%	14.51%	+9.4	24
1891-02-10	@ Notts County	L 0-4	1619	1675	14.51%	12.63%	72.86%	-9.4	17
1891-02-21	Sunderland	D 0-0	1856	1805	72.57%	12.64%	14.79%	-2.6	25
1891-02-21	@ Preston North End	D 0-0	1805	1856	14.79%	12.64%	72.57%	+2.6	21
1891-03-04	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-4	1610	1782	48.32%	12.85%	38.83%	-28.2	14
1891-03-04	@ Accrington	W 4-0	1782	1610	38.83%	12.85%	48.32%	+28.2	24
1891-03-07	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1810	1667	78.29%	12.38%	9.32%	-23.9	24
1891-03-07	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1667	1810	9.32%	12.38%	78.29%	+23.9	19
1891-03-07	Preston North End	W 6-2	1610	1853	38.16%	12.79%	49.06%	+20.2	19
1891-03-07	@ Burnley	L 2-6	1853	1610	49.06%	12.79%	38.16%	-20.2	25
1891-03-07	Accrington	W 5-1	1563	1582	66.51%	12.77%	20.72%	+11.0	10
1891-03-07	@ West Brom	L 1-5	1582	1563	20.72%	12.77%	66.51%	-11.0	14
1891-03-09	Preston North End	L 0-1	1629	1833	43.73%	12.83%	43.44%	-7.2	14
1891-03-09	@ Aston Villa	W 1-0	1833	1629	43.44%	12.83%	43.73%	+7.2	27
1891-03-09	Blackburn Rovers	W 1-0	1573	1786	42.52%	12.82%	44.66%	+7.3	12
1891-03-09	@ West Brom	L 0-1	1786	1573	44.66%	12.82%	42.52%	-7.3	24
1891-03-14	West Brom	W 7-1	1691	1581	76.51%	12.48%	11.00%	+8.7	21
1891-03-14	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-7	1581	1691	11.00%	12.48%	76.51%	-8.7	12
1891-03-14	Notts County	L 1-7	1778	1684	75.54%	12.53%	11.93%	-52.8	24
1891-03-14	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 7-1	1684	1778	11.93%	12.53%	75.54%	+52.8	26
1891-03-14	Wolverhampton	W 6-2	1622	1660	64.69%	12.80%	22.51%	+10.1	16
1891-03-14	@ Aston Villa	L 2-6	1660	1622	22.51%	12.80%	64.69%	-10.1	26
1891-03-14	Everton	W 3-2	1630	1809	47.23%	12.85%	39.92%	+6.0	21
1891-03-14	@ Burnley	L 2-3	1809	1630	39.92%	12.85%	47.23%	-6.0	29
1891-03-14	Preston North End	W 3-0	1807	1840	65.14%	12.79%	22.07%	+10.7	23
1891-03-14	@ Sunderland	L 0-3	1840	1807	22.07%	12.79%	65.14%	-10.7	27
1891-03-21	Aston Villa	L 1-3	1571	1632	62.18%	12.82%	25.00%	-16.4	14
1891-03-21	@ Accrington	W 3-1	1632	1571	25.00%	12.82%	62.18%	+16.4	18
1891-03-21	Burnley	W 1-0	1700	1636	73.48%	12.61%	13.91%	+2.5	23
1891-03-21	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1636	1700	13.91%	12.61%	73.48%	-2.5	21
1891-03-21	Derby County	W 5-1	1818	1610	81.24%	12.14%	6.61%	+3.7	25
1891-03-21	@ Sunderland	L 1-5	1610	1818	6.61%	12.14%	81.24%	-3.7	15
1891-03-28	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-0	1702	1726	66.12%	12.78%	21.10%	+7.1	25
1891-03-28	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1726	1702	21.10%	12.78%	66.12%	-7.1	24
1891-04-18	West Brom	W 1-0	1555	1572	66.68%	12.77%	20.55%	+3.7	16
1891-04-18	@ Accrington	L 0-1	1572	1555	20.55%	12.77%	66.68%	-3.7	12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1890-10-25	8.40%	West Brom	1640	3	@ Everton	1802	2
2	1891-03-07	9.32%	Bolton Wanderers	1667	2	@ Blackburn Rovers	1810	0
3	1890-09-13	9.83%	Burnley	1635	3	@ Sunderland	1767	2
4	1890-10-04	9.91%	Blackburn Rovers	1713	2	@ Preston North End	1844	1
5	1891-03-14	11.93%	Notts County	1684	7	@ Blackburn Rovers	1778	1
6	1890-09-27	14.00%	West Brom	1596	4	@ Aston Villa	1659	0
7	1890-09-15	14.46%	Wolverhampton	1700	4	@ Sunderland	1756	3
8	1890-11-01	15.97%	Aston Villa	1616	3	@ West Brom	1651	0
9	1890-09-27	17.58%	Wolverhampton	1708	3	@ Blackburn Rovers	1723	2
10	1890-11-29	18.43%	Derby County	1595	4	@ West Brom	1601	3
11	1890-10-11	18.44%	Bolton Wanderers	1638	2	@ Burnley	1643	1
12	1891-01-24	18.62%	Burnley	1610	4	@ Derby County	1614	2
13	1891-01-10	19.41%	Preston North End	1825	1	@ Everton	1820	0
14	1890-11-03	19.62%	Bolton Wanderers	1627	4	@ West Brom	1620	2
15	1890-12-06	20.69%	Accrington	1624	2	@ Derby County	1605	1
16	1890-12-27	22.17%	Sunderland	1773	3	@ Wolverhampton	1739	0
17	1890-09-06	23.05%	Everton	1699	4	@ West Brom	1656	1
18	1890-12-06	23.71%	Everton	1782	1	@ Wolverhampton	1733	0
19	1890-12-20	24.81%	Notts County	1683	1	@ Burnley	1623	0
20	1890-09-20	24.93%	Everton	1737	5	@ Bolton Wanderers	1677	0
21	1891-03-21	25.00%	Aston Villa	1632	3	@ Accrington	1571	1
22	1891-01-01	26.27%	Wolverhampton	1688	2	@ Accrington	1615	1
23	1890-10-18	29.02%	Blackburn Rovers	1729	6	@ Burnley	1633	1
24	1890-11-15	29.35%	Blackburn Rovers	1766	2	@ Notts County	1667	1
25	1890-09-20	31.58%	Sunderland	1746	4	@ West Brom	1629	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1891-03-14	52.76	Notts County	7	1684	11.93%	@ Blackburn Rovers	1	1778	75.54%	12.53%
2	1891-01-10	44.35	@ Derby County	9	1570	53.33%	Wolverhampton	0	1704	33.81%	12.86%
3	1890-09-20	44.20	Everton	5	1737	24.93%	@ Bolton Wanderers	0	1677	62.25%	12.82%
4	1890-09-27	42.39	West Brom	4	1596	14.00%	@ Aston Villa	0	1659	73.39%	12.61%
5	1890-10-18	34.24	Blackburn Rovers	6	1729	29.02%	@ Burnley	1	1633	58.14%	12.85%
6	1890-09-20	32.12	Sunderland	4	1746	31.58%	@ West Brom	0	1629	55.56%	12.85%
7	1890-11-01	31.52	Aston Villa	3	1616	15.97%	@ West Brom	0	1651	71.36%	12.67%
8	1890-12-27	28.68	Sunderland	3	1773	22.17%	@ Wolverhampton	0	1739	65.04%	12.79%
9	1891-03-04	28.22	Blackburn Rovers	4	1782	38.83%	@ Accrington	0	1610	48.32%	12.85%
10	1891-03-07	23.90	Bolton Wanderers	2	1667	9.32%	@ Blackburn Rovers	0	1810	78.29%	12.38%
11	1890-09-06	23.85	Everton	4	1699	23.05%	@ West Brom	1	1656	64.15%	12.80%
12	1890-12-29	22.65	@ Bolton Wanderers	6	1652	62.52%	Wolverhampton	0	1710	24.66%	12.82%
13	1891-03-07	20.22	@ Burnley	6	1610	38.16%	Preston North End	2	1853	49.06%	12.79%
14	1890-12-13	18.60	Everton	6	1792	42.50%	@ Derby County	2	1595	44.66%	12.83%
15	1890-12-13	17.79	@ Bolton Wanderers	6	1633	68.25%	Accrington	0	1634	19.01%	12.74%
16	1890-10-25	17.56	Sunderland	5	1772	32.89%	@ Bolton Wanderers	2	1645	54.26%	12.86%
17	1891-03-21	16.35	Aston Villa	3	1632	25.00%	@ Accrington	1	1571	62.18%	12.82%
18	1891-01-24	16.16	Burnley	4	1610	18.62%	@ Derby County	2	1614	68.65%	12.73%
19	1890-11-03	15.91	Bolton Wanderers	4	1627	19.62%	@ West Brom	2	1620	67.63%	12.75%
20	1890-09-20	15.73	@ Notts County	5	1627	67.21%	Accrington	0	1639	20.03%	12.76%
21	1890-11-29	15.17	@ Notts County	7	1657	67.56%	Aston Villa	1	1666	19.69%	12.75%
22	1890-11-22	15.07	@ Accrington	4	1616	48.19%	Sunderland	1	1788	38.97%	12.85%
23	1890-11-22	14.74	@ Aston Villa	5	1651	68.59%	Bolton Wanderers	0	1648	18.68%	12.74%
24	1890-09-13	14.37	@ Everton	5	1723	69.08%	Wolverhampton	0	1714	18.19%	12.73%
25	1890-10-25	13.51	@ Aston Villa	4	1602	65.94%	Derby County	0	1627	21.28%	12.78%