1889-90 The Football League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Preston North End

33 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1888-89

Relegated

Stoke City

failed re-election

Biggest Overachiever

Everton

9.12 points above expected

31 points · 21.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stoke City

6.61 points below expected

10 points · 16.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Preston North End Champion	22	15	3	4	33	71	30	+41	33.73	-0.73
2	Everton	22	14	3	5	31	65	40	+25	21.88	+9.12
3	Blackburn Rovers	22	12	3	7	27	78	41	+37	27.99	-0.99
4	Wolverhampton	22	10	5	7	25	51	38	+13	24.65	+0.35
5	West Brom	22	11	3	8	25	47	50	-3	20.04	+4.96
6	Accrington	22	9	6	7	24	53	56	-3	19.59	+4.41
7	Derby County	22	9	3	10	21	43	55	-12	20.72	+0.28
8	Aston Villa	22	7	5	10	19	43	51	-8	21.96	-2.96
9	Bolton Wanderers	22	9	1	12	19	54	65	-11	22.79	-3.79
10	Notts County	22	6	5	11	17	43	51	-8	17.52	-0.52
11	Burnley	22	4	5	13	13	36	65	-29	16.52	-3.52
12	Stoke City Relegated	22	3	4	15	10	27	69	-42	16.61	-6.61

Notes

Stoke City failed re-election to the league after the season and was demoted to the Football Alliance.

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Preston North End	1785	33	33.73	-0.73	46.0%	22	28	32	34	36	39	44
Blackburn Rovers	1603	27	27.99	-0.99	44.5%	14	22	26	28	30	34	41
Wolverhampton	1564	25	24.65	+0.35	58.7%	12	19	22	25	27	31	38
Everton	1550	31	21.88	+9.12	99.5%	8	16	19	22	24	28	35
Bolton Wanderers	1479	19	22.79	-3.79	18.8%	10	17	20	23	25	29	37
West Brom	1478	25	20.04	+4.96	92.8%	7	14	18	20	23	26	34
Derby County	1469	21	20.72	+0.28	58.3%	7	15	18	21	23	27	34
Aston Villa	1469	19	21.96	-2.96	25.1%	7	16	19	22	24	28	37
Accrington	1442	24	19.59	+4.41	90.6%	7	13	17	20	22	26	32
Burnley	1409	13	16.52	-3.52	20.4%	2	11	14	16	19	23	31
Notts County	1403	17	17.52	-0.52	50.2%	4	12	15	17	20	24	32
Stoke City	1348	10	16.61	-6.61	4.5%	4	11	14	17	19	23	31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ACC	AV	BR	BW	BUR	DC	EVE	NC	PNE	SC	WB	WOL
Accrington	—	2-0-0 2.36	0-1-1 2.04	2-0-0 2.37	0-2-0 3.02	2-0-0 2.45	1-1-0 2.37	0-0-2 3.24	0-1-1 1.02	1-0-1 3.62	0-1-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.17
Aston Villa	0-0-2 3.28	—	1-0-1 2.03	0-0-2 2.79	1-1-0 3.28	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.77	0-2-0 3.43	1-0-1 1.30	1-1-0 3.50	1-0-1 3.18	1-1-0 2.41
Blackburn Rovers	1-1-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.61	—	1-0-1 3.56	2-0-0 4.36	1-0-1 3.72	0-0-2 3.69	1-1-0 3.97	0-1-1 1.95	2-0-0 4.49	1-0-1 3.86	2-0-0 3.12
Bolton Wanderers	0-0-2 3.27	2-0-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.08	—	0-1-1 3.83	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-2 3.35	1-0-1 3.36	0-0-2 1.37	2-0-0 3.59	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.53
Burnley	0-2-0 2.61	0-1-1 2.36	0-0-2 1.30	1-1-0 1.81	—	1-0-1 2.15	0-0-2 1.96	1-1-0 2.58	0-0-2 1.01	1-0-1 2.98	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 1.70
Derby County	0-0-2 3.19	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 1.92	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 3.49	—	0-1-1 2.64	1-0-1 3.25	1-0-1 1.11	1-1-0 3.21	2-0-0 2.95	0-1-1 2.23
Everton	0-1-1 3.26	2-0-0 2.86	2-0-0 1.96	2-0-0 2.29	2-0-0 3.68	1-1-0 3.00	—	1-0-1 3.21	1-0-1 1.30	2-0-0 3.43	1-0-1 3.35	0-1-1 2.47
Notts County	2-0-0 2.40	0-2-0 2.21	0-1-1 1.68	1-0-1 2.28	0-1-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.43	—	0-0-2 0.92	1-1-0 2.73	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 1.88
Preston North End	1-1-0 4.66	1-0-1 4.35	1-1-0 3.69	2-0-0 4.29	2-0-0 4.67	1-0-1 4.56	1-0-1 4.36	2-0-0 4.76	—	2-0-0 4.81	1-1-0 4.55	1-0-1 4.04
Stoke City	1-0-1 2.02	0-1-1 2.15	0-0-2 1.18	0-0-2 2.06	1-0-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.42	0-0-2 2.21	0-1-1 2.90	0-0-2 0.87	—	0-0-2 2.26	1-1-0 2.08
West Brom	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 1.78	1-0-1 2.62	2-0-0 3.26	0-0-2 2.68	1-0-1 2.29	2-0-0 3.25	0-1-1 1.12	2-0-0 3.38	—	0-1-1 2.34
Wolverhampton	1-0-1 3.46	0-1-1 3.22	0-0-2 2.51	1-0-1 3.10	2-0-0 3.95	1-1-0 3.41	1-1-0 3.17	2-0-0 3.77	1-0-1 1.61	0-1-1 3.56	1-1-0 3.30	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.76	+4.1
Allowed	0.78	-5.0
Differential	0.87	+2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.76%	1.89%	2.65%	2.65%	0.76%	4.92%	13.64%
1	1.89%	8.33%	7.20%	3.41%	1.89%	5.30%	28.03%
2	2.65%	7.20%	7.58%	3.03%	2.27%	0.76%	23.48%
3	2.65%	3.41%	3.03%	0.76%	2.27%	2.27%	14.39%
4	0.76%	1.89%	2.27%	2.27%	—	—	7.20%
5+	4.92%	5.30%	0.76%	2.27%	—	—	13.26%
Total	13.64%	28.03%	23.48%	14.39%	7.20%	13.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.31	2.31	+0.00
SD	1.99	1.99	3.26
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	27.27%
2	—	9.09%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
Total	4.55%	18.18%	40.91%	22.73%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.41	2.55	-0.14
SD	1.65	1.84	2.73
CV	0.69	0.72	—
Max	6	8	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%	22.73%
1	4.55%	18.18%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.32	-0.36
SD	2.13	1.94	3.33
CV	1.09	0.84	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%
1	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	22.73%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.55	1.86	+1.68
SD	2.60	1.36	3.55
CV	0.73	0.73	—
Max	9	4	+8
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
1	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	22.73%	13.64%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.45	2.95	-0.50
SD	2.04	2.26	3.71
CV	0.83	0.76	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	—	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	45.45%
2	4.55%	—	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	9.09%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.95	-1.32
SD	1.53	2.42	3.30
CV	0.93	0.82	—
Max	7	9	+7
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%	27.27%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	18.18%	22.73%	18.18%	4.55%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.50	-0.55
SD	1.36	2.15	3.11
CV	0.70	0.86	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
2	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	22.73%	27.27%	22.73%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.95	1.82	+1.14
SD	1.91	1.59	2.80
CV	0.65	0.88	—
Max	8	5	+8
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	—	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	27.27%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.32	-0.36
SD	1.91	2.06	2.89
CV	0.98	0.89	—
Max	8	9	+7
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
1	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
4	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
5+	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
Total	31.82%	22.73%	31.82%	9.09%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.23	1.36	+1.86
SD	2.31	1.29	2.88
CV	0.72	0.95	—
Max	10	5	+10
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	—	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	3.14	-1.91
SD	1.57	2.64	3.56
CV	1.28	0.84	—
Max	7	10	+6
Min	0	1	-10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%	22.73%
1	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	40.91%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	2.27	-0.14
SD	1.83	1.88	3.11
CV	0.86	0.83	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	50.00%	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	1.73	+0.59
SD	1.86	1.55	2.42
CV	0.80	0.90	—
Max	9	6	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Everton	31	21.88	+9.12
2	West Brom	25	20.04	+4.96
3	Accrington	24	19.59	+4.41
4	Wolverhampton	25	24.65	+0.35
5	Derby County	21	20.72	+0.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Stoke City	10	16.61	-6.61
2	Bolton Wanderers	19	22.79	-3.79
3	Burnley	13	16.52	-3.52
4	Aston Villa	19	21.96	-2.96
5	Blackburn Rovers	27	27.99	-0.99

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Everton	6	Nov 23 – Feb 8	1 in 5,794
2	Notts County	4	Oct 5 – Oct 26	1 in 280
3	Wolverhampton	2	Oct 19 – Oct 26	1 in 58
4	Burnley	4	Mar 1 – Mar 15	1 in 45
5	Accrington	4	Dec 26 – Jan 4	1 in 41

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Stoke City	10	Oct 19 – Jan 4	1 in 389
2	Bolton Wanderers	4	Sep 14 – Oct 12	1 in 252
3	Burnley	8	Nov 9 – Feb 22	1 in 154
4	Aston Villa	5	Dec 25 – Jan 25	1 in 93
5	Preston North End	2	Oct 19 – Oct 26	1 in 72

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Everton	6	Nov 23 – Feb 8	1 in 108
2	West Brom	6	Dec 21 – Feb 8	1 in 62
3	Accrington	7	Dec 26 – Feb 22	1 in 40
4	Notts County	6	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 39
5	Wolverhampton	5	Sep 30 – Oct 26	1 in 29

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Burnley	17	Sep 7 – Feb 22	1 in 382
2	Wolverhampton	5	Dec 21 – Jan 4	1 in 63
3	Accrington	7	Sep 21 – Nov 9	1 in 36
4	Stoke City	12	Oct 5 – Jan 4	1 in 33
5	Bolton Wanderers	4	Sep 14 – Oct 12	1 in 23

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Preston North End	83.95%	12.77%	2.45%	0.60%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—
Everton	0.47%	5.68%	12.07%	14.34%	14.04%	12.82%	12.01%	9.62%	7.39%	5.82%	3.68%	2.06%
Blackburn Rovers	12.01%	47.54%	19.60%	9.46%	5.23%	2.84%	1.53%	0.81%	0.62%	0.22%	0.12%	0.02%
Wolverhampton	1.97%	15.88%	24.74%	17.72%	13.16%	9.29%	6.72%	4.54%	3.09%	1.59%	0.87%	0.43%
West Brom	0.13%	2.09%	5.17%	7.94%	10.03%	10.92%	12.57%	12.97%	13.05%	10.84%	8.59%	5.70%
Accrington	0.08%	1.53%	4.40%	6.81%	8.68%	11.19%	11.65%	13.24%	12.68%	12.53%	10.47%	6.74%
Derby County	0.19%	2.18%	6.10%	8.98%	11.15%	12.54%	12.99%	12.79%	11.35%	9.92%	7.27%	4.54%
Aston Villa	0.50%	5.07%	9.25%	13.40%	14.02%	13.13%	12.25%	10.76%	8.48%	6.59%	4.25%	2.30%
Bolton Wanderers	0.69%	6.50%	13.43%	14.91%	14.52%	13.65%	10.95%	8.76%	7.26%	5.05%	2.82%	1.46%
Notts County	0.01%	0.38%	1.34%	2.75%	4.16%	5.94%	8.51%	10.59%	14.03%	16.96%	17.43%	17.90%
Burnley	—	0.24%	0.71%	1.56%	2.46%	3.75%	5.08%	8.26%	10.93%	15.57%	22.51%	28.93%
Stoke City	—	0.14%	0.74%	1.53%	2.37%	3.89%	5.73%	7.66%	11.12%	14.91%	21.99%	29.92%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+29.55%

Strong Edge

56.06%17.42%26.52%

Elo Value

Home Edge

120 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0105.81300

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.36 goals

Strong Home

-2+0.88+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.4

One-Team Race

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

84%

Preston North End, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.93 * Some Luck: 2.93 to 4.39 * Lucky: 4.39 to 5.86 * Wild Swing: 5.86 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.22 * Off: 2.22 to 2.96 * Way Off: 2.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.17 points

Some Luck

03.669

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

01.854

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.54%

Everton

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

4.55%

Stoke City

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

Several Surprises

00.31

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.46

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

67%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

93%

Dominant

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

46%

Frequent

0%35%100%

Blowouts

Expected

34%

Very Frequent

0%44%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.50

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.26

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.60

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.39

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.73

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.052

Well Within Noise

00.1290.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Preston North End	100%	—
Blackburn Rovers	99.64%	0.36%
Wolverhampton	97.11%	2.89%
Bolton Wanderers	90.67%	9.33%
Everton	88.44%	11.56%
Aston Villa	86.86%	13.14%
Derby County	78.27%	21.73%
West Brom	74.87%	25.13%
Accrington	70.26%	29.74%
Notts County	47.71%	52.29%
Stoke City	33.18%	66.82%
Burnley	32.99%	67.01%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1889-09-07	Burnley	D 2-2	1507	1434	67.60%	17.87%	14.53%	-1.6	1
1889-09-07	@ Aston Villa	D 2-2	1434	1507	14.53%	17.87%	67.60%	+1.6	1
1889-09-07	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1445	1589	43.65%	18.46%	37.89%	+6.1	2
1889-09-07	@ Everton	L 2-3	1589	1445	37.89%	18.46%	43.65%	-6.0	0
1889-09-07	Derby County	D 1-1	1415	1476	54.51%	18.43%	27.06%	-1.1	1
1889-09-07	@ Stoke City	D 1-1	1476	1415	27.06%	18.43%	54.51%	+1.1	1
1889-09-07	Notts County	W 2-0	1530	1347	74.67%	16.98%	8.35%	+3.2	2
1889-09-07	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1347	1530	8.35%	16.98%	74.67%	-3.2	0
1889-09-14	Accrington	L 2-4	1573	1458	70.67%	17.57%	11.76%	-17.5	0
1889-09-14	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-2	1458	1573	11.76%	17.57%	70.67%	+17.5	2
1889-09-14	Stoke City	W 10-0	1770	1414	81.62%	14.98%	3.40%	+5.8	2
1889-09-14	@ Preston North End	L 0-10	1414	1770	3.40%	14.98%	81.62%	-5.8	1
1889-09-14	Notts County	D 1-1	1505	1344	73.46%	17.19%	9.35%	-2.7	2
1889-09-14	@ Aston Villa	D 1-1	1344	1505	9.35%	17.19%	73.46%	+2.7	1
1889-09-14	Wolverhampton	W 4-3	1583	1534	65.71%	18.02%	16.27%	+2.8	2
1889-09-14	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 3-4	1534	1583	16.27%	18.02%	65.71%	-2.8	2
1889-09-14	West Brom	W 3-1	1477	1455	63.27%	18.16%	18.57%	+6.0	3
1889-09-14	@ Derby County	L 1-3	1455	1477	18.57%	18.16%	63.27%	-6.0	0
1889-09-14	Burnley	W 2-1	1451	1435	62.71%	18.19%	19.10%	+3.5	4
1889-09-14	@ Everton	L 1-2	1435	1451	19.10%	18.19%	62.71%	-3.5	1
1889-09-16	Everton	W 2-1	1531	1455	67.81%	17.86%	14.33%	+2.7	4
1889-09-16	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1455	1531	14.33%	17.86%	67.81%	-2.7	4
1889-09-21	Preston North End	W 5-3	1502	1776	26.57%	17.99%	55.45%	+13.0	4
1889-09-21	@ Aston Villa	L 3-5	1776	1502	55.45%	17.99%	26.57%	-13.0	2
1889-09-21	Derby County	W 4-2	1586	1483	69.82%	17.66%	12.51%	+3.7	4
1889-09-21	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-4	1483	1586	12.51%	17.66%	69.82%	-3.7	3
1889-09-21	Accrington	D 2-2	1432	1475	56.49%	18.40%	25.12%	-0.9	2
1889-09-21	@ Burnley	D 2-2	1475	1432	25.12%	18.40%	56.49%	+0.9	3
1889-09-21	West Brom	L 1-2	1347	1449	49.34%	18.48%	32.18%	-8.0	1
1889-09-21	@ Notts County	W 2-1	1449	1347	32.18%	18.48%	49.34%	+8.0	2
1889-09-21	Everton	L 3-4	1556	1452	69.85%	17.66%	12.49%	-10.3	0
1889-09-21	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-3	1452	1556	12.49%	17.66%	69.85%	+10.3	6
1889-09-28	Preston North End	L 0-3	1431	1763	20.50%	17.59%	61.91%	-10.8	2
1889-09-28	@ Burnley	W 3-0	1763	1431	61.91%	17.59%	20.50%	+10.8	4
1889-09-28	Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1476	1590	47.80%	18.48%	33.72%	-0.4	4
1889-09-28	@ Accrington	D 2-2	1590	1476	33.72%	18.48%	47.80%	+0.4	5
1889-09-28	Notts County	W 2-0	1479	1339	72.26%	17.37%	10.37%	+4.0	5
1889-09-28	@ Derby County	L 0-2	1339	1479	10.37%	17.37%	72.26%	-4.0	1
1889-09-28	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1408	1533	46.27%	18.47%	35.25%	+6.0	3
1889-09-28	@ Stoke City	L 1-2	1533	1408	35.25%	18.47%	46.27%	-6.0	4
1889-09-28	Aston Villa	W 3-0	1457	1515	54.77%	18.43%	26.80%	+13.9	4
1889-09-28	@ West Brom	L 0-3	1515	1457	26.80%	18.43%	54.77%	-13.9	4
1889-09-28	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-0	1463	1546	51.78%	18.46%	29.75%	+15.2	8
1889-09-28	@ Everton	L 0-3	1546	1463	29.75%	18.46%	51.78%	-15.2	0
1889-09-30	Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1478	1527	55.78%	18.41%	25.81%	-1.2	9
1889-09-30	@ Everton	D 1-1	1527	1478	25.81%	18.41%	55.78%	+1.2	5
1889-10-05	West Brom	W 5-0	1774	1471	79.88%	15.64%	4.48%	+4.0	6
1889-10-05	@ Preston North End	L 0-5	1471	1774	4.48%	15.64%	79.88%	-4.0	4
1889-10-05	Aston Villa	L 2-6	1420	1501	51.97%	18.46%	29.57%	-22.4	2
1889-10-05	@ Burnley	W 6-2	1501	1420	29.57%	18.46%	51.97%	+22.5	6
1889-10-05	Stoke City	W 3-1	1335	1414	52.20%	18.46%	29.34%	+8.9	3
1889-10-05	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1414	1335	29.34%	18.46%	52.20%	-8.9	3
1889-10-05	Accrington	W 2-1	1529	1476	65.97%	18.00%	16.03%	+3.0	7
1889-10-05	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1476	1529	16.03%	18.00%	65.97%	-3.0	4
1889-10-05	Everton	D 2-2	1483	1477	61.80%	18.23%	19.97%	-1.3	6
1889-10-05	@ Derby County	D 2-2	1477	1483	19.97%	18.23%	61.80%	+1.3	10
1889-10-12	Preston North End	L 2-6	1530	1778	29.65%	18.13%	52.22%	-13.9	0
1889-10-12	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 6-2	1778	1530	52.22%	18.13%	29.65%	+13.9	8
1889-10-12	Notts County	L 1-8	1473	1344	71.55%	17.46%	10.99%	-60.5	4
1889-10-12	@ Accrington	W 8-1	1344	1473	10.99%	17.46%	71.55%	+60.5	5
1889-10-12	Derby County	W 7-1	1524	1482	65.03%	18.06%	16.91%	+14.5	8
1889-10-12	@ Aston Villa	L 1-7	1482	1524	16.91%	18.06%	65.03%	-14.5	6
1889-10-12	West Brom	L 1-2	1397	1467	53.48%	18.45%	28.07%	-8.6	2
1889-10-12	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1467	1397	28.07%	18.45%	53.48%	+8.6	6
1889-10-12	Stoke City	D 2-2	1532	1405	71.36%	17.49%	11.15%	-1.9	8
1889-10-12	@ Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1405	1532	11.15%	17.49%	71.36%	+1.9	4
1889-10-19	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-1	1407	1516	48.42%	18.48%	33.11%	-8.3	4
1889-10-19	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1516	1407	33.11%	18.48%	48.42%	+8.3	2
1889-10-19	Preston North End	W 2-1	1467	1792	21.26%	17.65%	61.09%	+9.7	8
1889-10-19	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1792	1467	61.09%	17.65%	21.26%	-9.7	8
1889-10-19	Burnley	D 2-2	1412	1389	63.38%	18.15%	18.47%	-1.4	5
1889-10-19	@ Accrington	D 2-2	1389	1412	18.47%	18.15%	63.38%	+1.4	3
1889-10-19	Aston Villa	W 7-0	1590	1538	65.90%	18.00%	16.10%	+19.5	7
1889-10-19	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-7	1538	1590	16.10%	18.00%	65.90%	-19.5	8
1889-10-19	Everton	W 4-3	1404	1478	52.95%	18.45%	28.60%	+4.7	7
1889-10-19	@ Notts County	L 3-4	1478	1404	28.60%	18.45%	52.95%	-4.7	10
1889-10-19	Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1475	1530	55.23%	18.42%	26.35%	-21.7	6
1889-10-19	@ West Brom	W 4-1	1530	1475	26.35%	18.42%	55.23%	+21.7	10
1889-10-26	Burnley	W 7-1	1610	1390	76.47%	16.61%	6.92%	+6.1	9
1889-10-26	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-7	1390	1610	6.92%	16.61%	76.47%	-6.1	3
1889-10-26	Notts County	L 0-4	1525	1409	70.69%	17.57%	11.75%	-42.9	2
1889-10-26	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-0	1409	1525	11.75%	17.57%	70.69%	+42.9	9
1889-10-26	Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1782	1551	76.98%	16.49%	6.53%	-24.6	8
1889-10-26	@ Preston North End	W 2-0	1551	1782	6.53%	16.49%	76.98%	+24.6	12
1889-10-26	West Brom	W 1-0	1519	1454	66.99%	17.92%	15.09%	+3.0	10
1889-10-26	@ Aston Villa	L 0-1	1454	1519	15.09%	17.92%	66.99%	-3.0	6
1889-10-26	Stoke City	W 2-0	1477	1399	67.99%	17.84%	14.17%	+5.4	10
1889-10-26	@ Derby County	L 0-2	1399	1477	14.17%	17.84%	67.99%	-5.4	4
1889-10-26	Accrington	D 2-2	1473	1411	66.74%	17.94%	15.31%	-1.6	11
1889-10-26	@ Everton	D 2-2	1411	1473	15.31%	17.94%	66.74%	+1.6	6
1889-11-02	Preston North End	L 3-4	1616	1758	43.97%	18.46%	37.57%	-6.7	9
1889-11-02	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 4-3	1758	1616	37.57%	18.46%	43.97%	+6.7	10
1889-11-02	Burnley	D 1-1	1452	1384	67.18%	17.91%	14.91%	-2.2	10
1889-11-02	@ Notts County	D 1-1	1384	1452	14.91%	17.91%	67.18%	+2.2	4
1889-11-02	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1522	1576	55.27%	18.42%	26.31%	+4.7	12
1889-11-02	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1576	1522	26.31%	18.42%	55.27%	-4.7	12
1889-11-02	Stoke City	W 8-0	1472	1394	67.97%	17.84%	14.19%	+19.7	13
1889-11-02	@ Everton	L 0-8	1394	1472	14.19%	17.84%	67.97%	-19.7	4
1889-11-04	Bolton Wanderers	W 6-3	1450	1482	57.85%	18.37%	23.79%	+8.5	8
1889-11-04	@ West Brom	L 3-6	1482	1450	23.79%	18.37%	57.85%	-8.5	2
1889-11-09	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1473	1609	44.80%	18.47%	36.73%	+5.9	4
1889-11-09	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 2-3	1609	1473	36.73%	18.47%	44.80%	-5.9	9
1889-11-09	Accrington	W 3-1	1764	1412	81.49%	15.03%	3.47%	+1.2	12
1889-11-09	@ Preston North End	L 1-3	1412	1764	3.47%	15.03%	81.49%	-1.2	6
1889-11-09	Derby County	L 2-3	1459	1483	58.69%	18.34%	22.97%	-8.9	8
1889-11-09	@ West Brom	W 3-2	1483	1459	22.97%	18.34%	58.69%	+8.9	12
1889-11-09	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1450	1527	52.53%	18.46%	29.01%	-0.9	11
1889-11-09	@ Notts County	D 1-1	1527	1450	29.01%	18.46%	52.53%	+0.9	13
1889-11-09	Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1386	1571	37.87%	18.37%	43.76%	-6.4	4
1889-11-09	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1571	1386	43.76%	18.37%	37.87%	+6.4	14
1889-11-09	Everton	L 1-2	1374	1491	47.34%	18.48%	34.19%	-7.7	4
1889-11-09	@ Stoke City	W 2-1	1491	1374	34.19%	18.48%	47.34%	+7.7	15
1889-11-11	Preston North End	L 1-2	1366	1766	14.99%	17.01%	68.00%	-2.8	4
1889-11-11	@ Stoke City	W 2-1	1766	1366	68.00%	17.01%	14.99%	+2.8	14
1889-11-16	Notts County	W 9-1	1603	1449	73.10%	17.24%	9.66%	+11.2	11
1889-11-16	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-9	1449	1603	9.66%	17.24%	73.10%	-11.2	11
1889-11-16	Derby County	W 6-1	1411	1491	52.13%	18.46%	29.41%	+20.0	8
1889-11-16	@ Accrington	L 1-6	1491	1411	29.41%	18.46%	52.13%	-20.0	12
1889-11-16	Aston Villa	W 2-0	1479	1527	55.97%	18.41%	25.62%	+9.2	6
1889-11-16	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-2	1527	1479	25.62%	18.41%	55.97%	-9.2	13
1889-11-16	Preston North End	L 1-5	1499	1768	27.08%	18.01%	54.90%	-15.1	15
1889-11-16	@ Everton	W 5-1	1768	1499	54.90%	18.01%	27.08%	+15.1	16
1889-11-16	West Brom	L 1-3	1363	1450	51.33%	18.47%	30.20%	-14.3	4
1889-11-16	@ Stoke City	W 3-1	1450	1363	30.20%	18.47%	51.33%	+14.3	10
1889-11-23	Accrington	W 3-2	1615	1431	74.68%	16.98%	8.35%	+1.5	13
1889-11-23	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-3	1431	1615	8.35%	16.98%	74.68%	-1.5	8
1889-11-23	Burnley	W 6-1	1464	1380	68.47%	17.80%	13.73%	+10.1	12
1889-11-23	@ West Brom	L 1-6	1380	1464	13.73%	17.80%	68.47%	-10.1	4
1889-11-23	Everton	L 1-2	1518	1484	64.39%	18.10%	17.51%	-10.3	13
1889-11-23	@ Aston Villa	W 2-1	1484	1518	17.51%	18.10%	64.39%	+10.3	17
1889-11-23	Wolverhampton	D 3-3	1471	1578	48.79%	18.48%	32.73%	-0.4	13
1889-11-23	@ Derby County	D 3-3	1578	1471	32.73%	18.48%	48.79%	+0.4	15
1889-11-23	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-1	1784	1489	79.57%	15.75%	4.68%	+1.6	18
1889-11-23	@ Preston North End	L 1-3	1489	1784	4.68%	15.75%	79.57%	-1.6	6
1889-11-30	West Brom	W 5-0	1616	1474	72.32%	17.36%	10.32%	+9.3	15
1889-11-30	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-5	1474	1616	10.32%	17.36%	72.32%	-9.3	12
1889-11-30	Derby County	W 7-1	1487	1471	62.68%	18.19%	19.13%	+16.2	8
1889-11-30	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-7	1471	1487	19.13%	18.19%	62.68%	-16.2	13
1889-11-30	Aston Villa	W 4-2	1430	1508	52.37%	18.46%	29.17%	+8.0	10
1889-11-30	@ Accrington	L 2-4	1508	1430	29.17%	18.46%	52.37%	-8.0	13
1889-11-30	Burnley	W 6-0	1785	1370	83.32%	14.18%	2.49%	+2.6	20
1889-11-30	@ Preston North End	L 0-6	1370	1785	2.49%	14.18%	83.32%	-2.6	4
1889-12-07	West Brom	W 7-0	1503	1465	64.70%	18.08%	17.22%	+20.7	10
1889-12-07	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-7	1465	1503	17.22%	18.08%	64.70%	-20.7	12
1889-12-07	Burnley	W 9-1	1578	1367	76.06%	16.70%	7.24%	+8.4	17
1889-12-07	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-9	1367	1578	7.24%	16.70%	76.06%	-8.4	4
1889-12-07	Stoke City	W 6-1	1500	1349	72.88%	17.28%	9.84%	+7.4	15
1889-12-07	@ Aston Villa	L 1-6	1349	1500	9.84%	17.28%	72.88%	-7.4	4
1889-12-07	Notts County	W 5-3	1494	1438	66.27%	17.98%	15.75%	+4.4	19
1889-12-07	@ Everton	L 3-5	1438	1494	15.75%	17.98%	66.27%	-4.3	11
1889-12-07	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1788	1625	73.54%	17.17%	9.29%	-2.7	21
1889-12-07	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1625	1788	9.29%	17.17%	73.54%	+2.7	16
1889-12-14	Wolverhampton	L 0-2	1433	1586	42.36%	18.44%	39.20%	-14.0	11
1889-12-14	@ Notts County	W 2-0	1586	1433	39.20%	18.44%	42.36%	+14.0	19
1889-12-21	Accrington	W 4-1	1444	1438	61.80%	18.23%	19.97%	+9.0	14
1889-12-21	@ West Brom	L 1-4	1438	1444	19.97%	18.23%	61.80%	-9.0	10
1889-12-21	Bolton Wanderers	W 7-1	1628	1524	69.89%	17.66%	12.45%	+10.9	18
1889-12-21	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-7	1524	1628	12.45%	17.66%	69.89%	-10.9	10
1889-12-21	Derby County	W 3-1	1419	1455	57.38%	18.38%	24.24%	+7.6	13
1889-12-21	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1455	1419	24.24%	18.38%	57.38%	-7.6	13
1889-12-21	Everton	L 1-2	1785	1498	79.26%	15.85%	4.89%	-12.6	21
1889-12-21	@ Preston North End	W 2-1	1498	1785	4.89%	15.85%	79.26%	+12.6	21
1889-12-21	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1600	1507	69.10%	17.74%	13.16%	-2.3	20
1889-12-21	@ Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1507	1600	13.16%	17.74%	69.10%	+2.3	16
1889-12-23	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-3	1342	1639	24.03%	17.84%	58.13%	-12.5	4
1889-12-23	@ Stoke City	W 3-0	1639	1342	58.13%	17.84%	24.03%	+12.5	20
1889-12-25	Aston Villa	W 3-2	1772	1510	78.33%	16.13%	5.54%	+1.0	23
1889-12-25	@ Preston North End	L 2-3	1510	1772	5.54%	16.13%	78.33%	-1.0	16
1889-12-26	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-2	1447	1513	53.89%	18.44%	27.67%	+4.7	15
1889-12-26	@ Derby County	L 2-3	1513	1447	27.67%	18.44%	53.89%	-4.7	10
1889-12-26	Blackburn Rovers	L 2-4	1598	1652	55.36%	18.42%	26.22%	-13.7	20
1889-12-26	@ Wolverhampton	W 4-2	1652	1598	26.22%	18.42%	55.36%	+13.7	22
1889-12-26	Accrington	L 1-2	1509	1429	68.14%	17.83%	14.04%	-10.9	16
1889-12-26	@ Aston Villa	W 2-1	1429	1509	14.04%	17.83%	68.14%	+10.9	12
1889-12-26	Preston North End	D 2-2	1454	1773	21.72%	17.68%	60.59%	+1.2	15
1889-12-26	@ West Brom	D 2-2	1773	1454	60.59%	17.68%	21.72%	-1.2	24
1889-12-28	Stoke City	W 2-1	1440	1329	70.31%	17.61%	12.08%	+2.3	14
1889-12-28	@ Accrington	L 1-2	1329	1440	12.08%	17.61%	70.31%	-2.3	4
1889-12-28	Everton	L 2-4	1665	1511	73.08%	17.25%	9.68%	-18.1	22
1889-12-28	@ Blackburn Rovers	W 4-2	1511	1665	9.68%	17.25%	73.08%	+18.1	23
1889-12-28	West Brom	D 1-1	1584	1455	71.59%	17.46%	10.96%	-2.6	21
1889-12-28	@ Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1455	1584	10.96%	17.46%	71.59%	+2.6	16
1889-12-28	Aston Villa	W 5-0	1452	1498	56.22%	18.40%	25.38%	+21.3	17
1889-12-28	@ Derby County	L 0-5	1498	1452	25.38%	18.40%	56.22%	-21.3	16
1890-01-01	Wolverhampton	W 6-3	1442	1582	44.23%	18.46%	37.31%	+12.4	16
1890-01-01	@ Accrington	L 3-6	1582	1442	37.31%	18.46%	44.23%	-12.4	21
1890-01-04	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-1	1454	1508	55.28%	18.42%	26.30%	+8.1	18
1890-01-04	@ Accrington	L 1-3	1508	1454	26.30%	18.42%	55.28%	-8.1	10
1890-01-04	Notts County	W 4-2	1457	1427	64.02%	18.12%	17.86%	+5.2	18
1890-01-04	@ West Brom	L 2-4	1427	1457	17.86%	18.12%	64.02%	-5.2	13
1890-01-04	Burnley	W 4-1	1473	1359	70.59%	17.58%	11.83%	+5.6	19
1890-01-04	@ Derby County	L 1-4	1359	1473	11.83%	17.58%	70.59%	-5.6	4
1890-01-04	Stoke City	W 8-0	1647	1327	80.46%	15.44%	4.11%	+5.7	24
1890-01-04	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-8	1327	1647	4.11%	15.44%	80.46%	-5.7	4
1890-01-04	Preston North End	L 0-1	1569	1772	35.45%	18.32%	46.23%	-6.4	21
1890-01-04	@ Wolverhampton	W 1-0	1772	1569	46.23%	18.32%	35.45%	+6.4	26
1890-01-04	Aston Villa	W 7-0	1529	1477	65.94%	18.00%	16.06%	+19.4	25
1890-01-04	@ Everton	L 0-7	1477	1529	16.06%	18.00%	65.94%	-19.4	16
1890-01-11	Stoke City	L 1-3	1353	1321	64.16%	18.11%	17.73%	-17.8	4
1890-01-11	@ Burnley	W 3-1	1321	1353	17.73%	18.11%	64.16%	+17.8	6
1890-01-11	Bolton Wanderers	L 3-5	1422	1500	52.32%	18.46%	29.22%	-12.3	13
1890-01-11	@ Notts County	W 5-3	1500	1422	29.22%	18.46%	52.32%	+12.3	12
1890-01-11	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1462	1653	37.12%	18.36%	44.52%	+6.9	20
1890-01-11	@ West Brom	L 2-3	1653	1462	44.52%	18.36%	37.12%	-6.9	24
1890-01-11	Derby County	W 5-0	1779	1479	79.74%	15.69%	4.57%	+4.1	28
1890-01-11	@ Preston North End	L 0-5	1479	1779	4.57%	15.69%	79.74%	-4.1	19
1890-01-25	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1457	1513	55.12%	18.42%	26.45%	-8.8	16
1890-01-25	@ Aston Villa	W 2-1	1513	1457	26.45%	18.42%	55.12%	+8.8	14
1890-01-25	Derby County	W 2-1	1563	1475	68.76%	17.77%	13.47%	+2.6	23
1890-01-25	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1475	1563	13.47%	17.77%	68.76%	-2.6	19
1890-02-08	West Brom	D 0-0	1462	1469	60.44%	18.28%	21.28%	-1.8	19
1890-02-08	@ Accrington	D 0-0	1469	1462	21.28%	18.28%	60.44%	+1.8	21
1890-02-08	Stoke City	W 5-0	1521	1339	74.63%	16.98%	8.38%	+7.6	16
1890-02-08	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 0-5	1339	1521	8.38%	16.98%	74.63%	-7.6	6
1890-02-08	Everton	L 0-1	1335	1549	34.07%	18.28%	47.65%	-6.2	4
1890-02-08	@ Burnley	W 1-0	1549	1335	47.65%	18.28%	34.07%	+6.2	27
1890-02-08	Blackburn Rovers	W 4-0	1472	1646	39.43%	18.40%	42.16%	+26.4	21
1890-02-08	@ Derby County	L 0-4	1646	1472	42.16%	18.40%	39.43%	-26.4	24
1890-02-15	Accrington	L 2-3	1498	1461	64.69%	18.08%	17.23%	-9.8	21
1890-02-15	@ Derby County	W 3-2	1461	1498	17.23%	18.08%	64.69%	+9.8	21
1890-02-18	Blackburn Rovers	D 1-1	1409	1620	34.44%	18.29%	47.26%	+0.5	14
1890-02-18	@ Notts County	D 1-1	1620	1409	47.26%	18.29%	34.44%	-0.5	25
1890-02-22	Everton	W 5-3	1470	1555	51.62%	18.47%	29.92%	+7.7	23
1890-02-22	@ Accrington	L 3-5	1555	1470	29.92%	18.47%	51.62%	-7.7	27
1890-02-22	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-2	1329	1619	24.82%	17.89%	57.29%	-4.4	4
1890-02-22	@ Burnley	W 2-1	1619	1329	57.29%	17.89%	24.82%	+4.4	27
1890-02-24	Wolverhampton	W 4-1	1529	1566	57.27%	18.38%	24.35%	+10.8	18
1890-02-24	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-4	1566	1529	24.35%	18.38%	57.27%	-10.8	23
1890-03-01	Accrington	W 7-1	1331	1478	43.29%	18.45%	38.25%	+29.5	8
1890-03-01	@ Stoke City	L 1-7	1478	1331	38.25%	18.45%	43.29%	-29.5	23
1890-03-01	Bolton Wanderers	W 7-0	1325	1540	33.83%	18.27%	47.89%	+49.9	6
1890-03-01	@ Burnley	L 0-7	1540	1325	47.89%	18.27%	33.83%	-49.9	18
1890-03-01	Notts County	W 4-3	1783	1410	82.13%	14.76%	3.11%	+0.5	30
1890-03-01	@ Preston North End	L 3-4	1410	1783	3.11%	14.76%	82.13%	-0.5	14
1890-03-08	West Brom	W 5-1	1547	1471	67.83%	17.85%	14.32%	+8.6	29
1890-03-08	@ Everton	L 1-5	1471	1547	14.32%	17.85%	67.83%	-8.6	21
1890-03-08	Derby County	W 2-0	1375	1489	47.77%	18.48%	33.75%	+11.6	8
1890-03-08	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1489	1375	33.75%	18.48%	47.77%	-11.6	21
1890-03-10	Burnley	L 3-4	1361	1386	58.50%	18.35%	23.15%	-8.7	8
1890-03-10	@ Stoke City	W 4-3	1386	1361	23.15%	18.35%	58.50%	+8.7	10
1890-03-13	Accrington	W 3-1	1409	1449	56.96%	18.39%	24.65%	+7.7	16
1890-03-13	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1449	1409	24.65%	18.39%	56.96%	-7.7	23
1890-03-15	Stoke City	W 2-1	1462	1352	70.31%	17.61%	12.08%	+2.3	23
1890-03-15	@ West Brom	L 1-2	1352	1462	12.08%	17.61%	70.31%	-2.3	8
1890-03-15	Preston North End	D 2-2	1441	1783	19.61%	17.51%	62.88%	+1.3	24
1890-03-15	@ Accrington	D 2-2	1783	1441	62.88%	17.51%	19.61%	-1.3	31
1890-03-15	Notts County	W 3-0	1395	1417	58.87%	18.34%	22.79%	+12.0	12
1890-03-15	@ Burnley	L 0-3	1417	1395	22.79%	18.34%	58.87%	-12.0	16
1890-03-15	Derby County	W 3-0	1556	1477	68.02%	17.84%	14.14%	+7.8	31
1890-03-15	@ Everton	L 0-3	1477	1556	14.14%	17.84%	68.02%	-7.8	21
1890-03-15	Bolton Wanderers	W 5-1	1555	1490	66.96%	17.92%	15.11%	+9.0	25
1890-03-15	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-5	1490	1555	15.11%	17.92%	66.96%	-9.0	18
1890-03-17	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1350	1448	49.82%	18.48%	31.70%	-0.7	9
1890-03-17	@ Stoke City	D 1-1	1448	1350	31.70%	18.48%	49.82%	+0.7	17
1890-03-17	Burnley	D 2-2	1481	1407	67.66%	17.87%	14.47%	-1.6	19
1890-03-17	@ Bolton Wanderers	D 2-2	1407	1481	14.47%	17.87%	67.66%	+1.7	13
1890-03-22	Everton	W 4-1	1465	1563	49.78%	18.48%	31.74%	+13.5	25
1890-03-22	@ West Brom	L 1-4	1563	1465	31.74%	18.48%	49.78%	-13.5	31
1890-03-24	Notts County	D 1-1	1349	1405	55.10%	18.42%	26.48%	-1.1	10
1890-03-24	@ Stoke City	D 1-1	1405	1349	26.48%	18.42%	55.10%	+1.1	17
1890-03-27	Preston North End	L 0-1	1406	1782	16.76%	17.22%	66.01%	-3.3	17
1890-03-27	@ Notts County	W 1-0	1782	1406	66.01%	17.22%	16.76%	+3.3	33
1890-03-31	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-0	1449	1624	39.35%	18.40%	42.25%	+20.3	19
1890-03-31	@ Aston Villa	L 0-3	1624	1449	42.25%	18.40%	39.35%	-20.3	27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1889-12-21	4.89%	Everton	1498	2	@ Preston North End	1785	1
2	1889-10-26	6.53%	Wolverhampton	1551	2	@ Preston North End	1782	0
3	1889-12-28	9.68%	Everton	1511	4	@ Blackburn Rovers	1665	2
4	1889-10-12	10.99%	Notts County	1344	8	@ Accrington	1473	1
5	1889-10-26	11.75%	Notts County	1409	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1525	0
6	1889-09-14	11.76%	Accrington	1458	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1573	2
7	1889-09-21	12.49%	Everton	1452	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1556	3
8	1889-12-26	14.04%	Accrington	1429	2	@ Aston Villa	1509	1
9	1890-02-15	17.23%	Accrington	1461	3	@ Derby County	1498	2
10	1889-11-23	17.51%	Everton	1484	2	@ Aston Villa	1518	1
11	1890-01-11	17.73%	Stoke City	1321	3	@ Burnley	1353	1
12	1889-10-19	21.26%	@ Derby County	1467	2	Preston North End	1792	1
13	1889-11-09	22.97%	Derby County	1483	3	@ West Brom	1459	2
14	1890-03-10	23.15%	Burnley	1386	4	@ Stoke City	1361	3
15	1889-12-26	26.22%	Blackburn Rovers	1652	4	@ Wolverhampton	1598	2
16	1889-10-19	26.35%	Wolverhampton	1530	4	@ West Brom	1475	1
17	1890-01-25	26.45%	Bolton Wanderers	1513	2	@ Aston Villa	1457	1
18	1889-09-21	26.57%	@ Aston Villa	1502	5	Preston North End	1776	3
19	1889-10-12	28.07%	West Brom	1467	2	@ Burnley	1397	1
20	1890-01-11	29.22%	Bolton Wanderers	1500	5	@ Notts County	1422	3
21	1889-10-05	29.57%	Aston Villa	1501	6	@ Burnley	1420	2
22	1889-11-16	30.20%	West Brom	1450	3	@ Stoke City	1363	1
23	1889-09-21	32.18%	West Brom	1449	2	@ Notts County	1347	1
24	1889-10-19	33.11%	Bolton Wanderers	1516	1	@ Stoke City	1407	0
25	1890-03-01	33.83%	@ Burnley	1325	7	Bolton Wanderers	1540	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1889-10-12	60.55	Notts County	8	1344	10.99%	@ Accrington	1	1473	71.55%	17.46%
2	1890-03-01	49.88	@ Burnley	7	1325	33.83%	Bolton Wanderers	0	1540	47.89%	18.27%
3	1889-10-26	42.90	Notts County	4	1409	11.75%	@ Bolton Wanderers	0	1525	70.69%	17.57%
4	1890-03-01	29.48	@ Stoke City	7	1331	43.29%	Accrington	1	1478	38.25%	18.45%
5	1890-02-08	26.42	@ Derby County	4	1472	39.43%	Blackburn Rovers	0	1646	42.16%	18.40%
6	1889-10-26	24.59	Wolverhampton	2	1551	6.53%	@ Preston North End	0	1782	76.98%	16.49%
7	1889-10-05	22.45	Aston Villa	6	1501	29.57%	@ Burnley	2	1420	51.97%	18.46%
8	1889-10-19	21.68	Wolverhampton	4	1530	26.35%	@ West Brom	1	1475	55.23%	18.42%
9	1889-12-28	21.30	@ Derby County	5	1452	56.22%	Aston Villa	0	1498	25.38%	18.40%
10	1889-12-07	20.73	@ Bolton Wanderers	7	1503	64.70%	West Brom	0	1465	17.22%	18.08%
11	1890-03-31	20.26	@ Aston Villa	3	1449	39.35%	Blackburn Rovers	0	1624	42.25%	18.40%
12	1889-11-16	20.02	@ Accrington	6	1411	52.13%	Derby County	1	1491	29.41%	18.46%
13	1889-11-02	19.67	@ Everton	8	1472	67.97%	Stoke City	0	1394	14.19%	17.84%
14	1889-10-19	19.48	@ Blackburn Rovers	7	1590	65.90%	Aston Villa	0	1538	16.10%	18.00%
15	1890-01-04	19.43	@ Everton	7	1529	65.94%	Aston Villa	0	1477	16.06%	18.00%
16	1889-12-28	18.11	Everton	4	1511	9.68%	@ Blackburn Rovers	2	1665	73.08%	17.25%
17	1890-01-11	17.75	Stoke City	3	1321	17.73%	@ Burnley	1	1353	64.16%	18.11%
18	1889-09-14	17.51	Accrington	4	1458	11.76%	@ Bolton Wanderers	2	1573	70.67%	17.57%
19	1889-11-30	16.25	@ Bolton Wanderers	7	1487	62.68%	Derby County	1	1471	19.13%	18.19%
20	1889-09-28	15.16	@ Everton	3	1463	51.78%	Bolton Wanderers	0	1546	29.75%	18.46%
21	1889-11-16	15.14	Preston North End	5	1768	54.90%	@ Everton	1	1499	27.08%	18.01%
22	1889-10-12	14.53	@ Aston Villa	7	1524	65.03%	Derby County	1	1482	16.91%	18.06%
23	1889-11-16	14.33	West Brom	3	1450	30.20%	@ Stoke City	1	1363	51.33%	18.47%
24	1889-12-14	13.99	Wolverhampton	2	1586	39.20%	@ Notts County	0	1433	42.36%	18.44%
25	1889-10-12	13.90	Preston North End	6	1778	52.22%	@ Bolton Wanderers	2	1530	29.65%	18.13%