1888-89 The Football League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Preston North End

40 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Preston North End

7.83 points above expected

40 points · 32.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stoke City

6.19 points below expected

12 points · 18.19 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Preston North End Champion	22	18	4	0	40	74	15	+59	32.17	+7.83
2	Aston Villa	22	12	5	5	29	61	43	+18	25.40	+3.60
3	Wolverhampton	22	12	4	6	28	50	37	+13	24.72	+3.28
4	Blackburn Rovers	22	10	6	6	26	66	45	+21	25.96	+0.04
5	Bolton Wanderers	22	10	2	10	22	63	59	+4	20.60	+1.40
6	West Brom	22	10	2	10	22	40	46	-6	21.70	+0.30
7	Accrington	22	6	8	8	20	48	48	0	22.21	-2.21
8	Everton	22	9	2	11	20	35	46	-11	20.82	-0.82
9	Burnley	22	7	3	12	17	42	62	-20	17.16	-0.16
10	Derby County	22	7	2	13	16	41	61	-20	19.10	-3.10
11	Stoke City	22	4	4	14	12	26	51	-25	18.19	-6.19
12	Notts County	22	5	2	15	12	40	73	-33	15.96	-3.96

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Preston North End	1936	40	32.17	+7.83	99.6%	18	27	30	32	34	37	43
Blackburn Rovers	1639	26	25.96	+0.04	55.4%	12	20	23	26	28	32	39
Bolton Wanderers	1616	22	20.60	+1.40	69.4%	6	15	18	21	23	27	35
Wolverhampton	1550	28	24.72	+3.28	84.6%	11	19	22	25	27	31	37
Aston Villa	1511	29	25.40	+3.60	86.9%	12	19	23	25	28	31	40
Derby County	1462	16	19.10	-3.10	23.6%	7	13	17	19	22	25	33
West Brom	1431	22	21.70	+0.30	58.9%	7	16	19	22	24	28	34
Accrington	1430	20	22.21	-2.21	31.9%	9	16	20	22	25	28	36
Everton	1416	20	20.82	-0.82	46.5%	7	15	18	21	23	27	34
Burnley	1396	17	17.16	-0.16	54.2%	5	11	15	17	20	23	30
Stoke City	1364	12	18.19	-6.19	6.1%	5	12	16	18	21	24	32
Notts County	1250	12	15.96	-3.96	16.7%	4	10	14	16	18	22	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ACC	AV	BR	BW	BUR	DC	EVE	NC	PNE	SC	WB	WOL
Accrington	—	0-1-1 2.43	0-1-1 2.37	0-0-2 2.44	1-1-0 3.58	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 3.79	0-1-1 1.96	2-0-0 3.03	1-1-0 2.93	0-1-1 3.05
Aston Villa	1-1-0 3.22	—	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.32	1-0-1 4.46	1-0-1 3.71	1-0-1 3.17	2-0-0 4.19	0-1-1 1.19	1-1-0 3.78	1-1-0 3.55	1-1-0 2.86
Blackburn Rovers	1-1-0 3.28	1-0-1 2.81	—	0-1-1 3.83	2-0-0 3.85	2-0-0 4.12	1-0-1 4.05	1-1-0 3.72	0-1-1 1.40	1-0-1 3.98	1-0-1 3.00	0-2-0 3.03
Bolton Wanderers	2-0-0 3.21	0-0-2 2.32	1-1-0 1.83	—	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 3.27	1-0-1 2.28	2-0-0 3.84	0-0-2 1.21	1-1-0 3.24	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.40
Burnley	0-1-1 2.07	1-0-1 1.20	0-0-2 1.81	2-0-0 2.95	—	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 1.60	1-0-1 2.80	0-1-1 1.14	1-0-1 2.20	1-0-1 1.84	0-0-2 3.31
Derby County	0-1-1 2.75	1-0-1 1.94	0-0-2 1.53	1-0-1 2.38	1-0-1 2.82	—	0-0-2 2.50	2-0-0 3.61	0-0-2 1.95	1-1-0 3.11	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 1.39
Everton	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 1.60	1-0-1 3.37	1-1-0 4.06	2-0-0 3.16	—	1-0-1 3.11	0-0-2 0.78	1-1-0 2.96	0-0-2 2.88	0-0-2 2.27
Notts County	1-1-0 1.86	0-0-2 1.46	0-1-1 1.94	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.04	1-0-1 2.54	—	0-0-2 1.36	0-0-2 3.06	1-0-1 1.78	1-0-1 1.33
Preston North End	1-1-0 3.70	1-1-0 4.46	1-1-0 4.26	2-0-0 4.44	1-1-0 4.52	2-0-0 3.72	2-0-0 4.88	2-0-0 4.32	—	2-0-0 4.64	2-0-0 4.15	2-0-0 3.18
Stoke City	0-0-2 2.62	0-1-1 1.87	1-0-1 1.67	0-1-1 2.41	1-0-1 3.45	0-1-1 2.54	0-1-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.58	0-0-2 1.01	—	0-0-2 2.67	0-0-2 1.80
West Brom	0-1-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.10	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 3.81	2-0-0 2.96	2-0-0 2.77	1-0-1 3.87	0-0-2 1.50	2-0-0 2.98	—	0-0-2 2.30
Wolverhampton	1-1-0 2.60	0-1-1 2.79	0-2-0 2.62	1-0-1 3.25	2-0-0 2.34	1-0-1 4.27	2-0-0 3.38	1-0-1 4.32	0-0-2 2.47	2-0-0 3.86	2-0-0 3.35	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+4.6
Allowed	0.78	-4.8
Differential	0.96	+3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.52%	2.27%	4.17%	3.41%	2.27%	1.89%	15.53%
1	2.27%	4.55%	7.58%	1.89%	2.65%	3.03%	21.97%
2	4.17%	7.58%	6.06%	3.03%	2.65%	4.17%	27.65%
3	3.41%	1.89%	3.03%	2.27%	1.52%	1.14%	13.26%
4	2.27%	2.65%	2.65%	1.52%	1.52%	—	10.61%
5+	1.89%	3.03%	4.17%	1.14%	—	0.76%	10.98%
Total	15.53%	21.97%	27.65%	13.26%	10.61%	10.98%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	2.22	+0.00
SD	1.72	1.72	2.65
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	9	9	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
Total	9.09%	22.73%	36.36%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	2.18	+0.00
SD	1.76	1.37	1.98
CV	0.81	0.63	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	—	18.18%	—	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	4.55%	40.91%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.77	1.95	+0.82
SD	2.31	1.33	2.89
CV	0.83	0.68	—
Max	9	5	+8
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	9.09%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
Total	18.18%	13.64%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.00	2.05	+0.95
SD	1.88	1.56	2.48
CV	0.63	0.76	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	9.09%	31.82%
3	—	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	4.55%	18.18%	31.82%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.86	2.68	+0.18
SD	1.61	1.62	2.48
CV	0.56	0.60	—
Max	7	6	+4
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
1	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	40.91%
3	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	27.27%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	2.82	-0.91
SD	1.15	2.06	2.56
CV	0.60	0.73	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	22.73%	13.64%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	2.77	-0.91
SD	1.70	1.77	2.51
CV	0.91	0.64	—
Max	6	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	27.27%	31.82%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	2.09	-0.50
SD	1.50	1.41	2.20
CV	0.94	0.67	—
Max	6	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
1	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	27.27%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	22.73%	9.09%	22.73%	18.18%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	3.32	-1.50
SD	1.47	2.28	2.99
CV	0.81	0.69	—
Max	6	9	+5
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
2	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	18.18%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
Total	59.09%	13.64%	27.27%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.36	0.68	+2.68
SD	1.87	0.89	2.03
CV	0.55	1.31	—
Max	7	2	+7
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
1	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	18.18%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	2.32	-1.14
SD	1.14	1.78	2.23
CV	0.96	0.77	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	18.18%	31.82%	18.18%	—	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	2.09	-0.27
SD	1.44	1.66	2.49
CV	0.79	0.79	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	22.73%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.27	1.68	+0.59
SD	1.45	1.39	2.40
CV	0.64	0.83	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Preston North End	40	32.17	+7.83
2	Aston Villa	29	25.40	+3.60
3	Wolverhampton	28	24.72	+3.28
4	Bolton Wanderers	22	20.60	+1.40
5	West Brom	22	21.70	+0.30

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Stoke City	12	18.19	-6.19
2	Notts County	12	15.96	-3.96
3	Derby County	16	19.10	-3.10
4	Accrington	20	22.21	-2.21
5	Everton	20	20.82	-0.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Notts County	3	Jan 12 – Jan 26	1 in 108
2	Preston North End	6	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 61
3	West Brom	2	Sep 8 – Sep 15	1 in 29
4	Bolton Wanderers	4	Jan 26 – Mar 23	1 in 21
5	Stoke City	2	Nov 24 – Dec 1	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Derby County	8	Sep 29 – Dec 8	1 in 145
2	Accrington	3	Jan 19 – Mar 23	1 in 86
3	Burnley	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 40
4	Bolton Wanderers	3	Sep 8 – Sep 22	1 in 33
5	Notts County	6	Nov 24 – Jan 5	1 in 30

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Preston North End	22	Sep 8 – Feb 9	1 in 169
2	Wolverhampton	5	Sep 22 – Oct 20	1 in 57
3	Accrington	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 41
4	Aston Villa	5	Oct 13 – Nov 10	1 in 18
5	Notts County	3	Jan 12 – Jan 26	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Derby County	10	Sep 15 – Dec 8	1 in 108
2	Stoke City	9	Dec 8 – Apr 20	1 in 42
3	Notts County	8	Nov 3 – Jan 5	1 in 13
4	West Brom	4	Jan 5 – Jan 26	1 in 8
5	Burnley	4	Oct 13 – Nov 3	1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Preston North End	79.34%	13.74%	4.11%	1.82%	0.51%	0.26%	0.18%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—	—
Aston Villa	6.04%	22.79%	21.83%	16.18%	11.40%	7.90%	5.53%	3.73%	2.37%	1.30%	0.64%	0.29%
Wolverhampton	4.07%	17.65%	19.86%	17.95%	12.55%	9.79%	6.99%	4.62%	3.13%	2.04%	1.13%	0.22%
Blackburn Rovers	7.68%	28.64%	21.29%	14.71%	10.45%	6.43%	4.73%	2.78%	1.76%	0.94%	0.47%	0.12%
Bolton Wanderers	0.45%	2.78%	5.74%	8.59%	11.39%	12.49%	12.98%	12.36%	11.68%	9.80%	7.53%	4.21%
West Brom	0.84%	4.37%	7.79%	10.76%	12.85%	13.91%	13.46%	11.95%	9.85%	7.05%	4.75%	2.42%
Accrington	1.04%	5.56%	9.31%	12.79%	15.12%	13.57%	12.69%	10.62%	8.26%	5.63%	3.66%	1.75%
Everton	0.33%	2.61%	5.30%	8.26%	10.70%	13.04%	13.52%	13.31%	12.10%	9.89%	6.84%	4.10%
Burnley	—	0.27%	0.87%	1.58%	3.06%	4.63%	6.56%	9.66%	12.43%	17.41%	21.00%	22.53%
Derby County	0.10%	0.85%	2.27%	4.01%	6.28%	8.77%	10.74%	13.22%	14.56%	15.31%	13.89%	10.00%
Stoke City	0.09%	0.66%	1.33%	2.60%	4.21%	6.53%	8.63%	11.32%	13.94%	16.78%	18.12%	15.79%
Notts County	0.02%	0.08%	0.30%	0.75%	1.48%	2.68%	3.99%	6.40%	9.91%	13.85%	21.97%	38.57%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+34.85%

Strong Edge

59.09%16.67%24.24%

Elo Value

Home Edge

163 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0126.37500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.86 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.77+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.6

One-Team Race

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

79%

Preston North End, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.50/gm

Comfortable

00.190.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.89 * Some Luck: 2.89 to 4.34 * Lucky: 4.34 to 5.78 * Wild Swing: 5.78 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.23 * Off: 2.23 to 2.97 * Way Off: 2.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.61 points

Some Luck

03.629

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

Pinpoint

01.864

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.62%

Preston North End

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.07%

Stoke City

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.69

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

71%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

98%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

45%

Frequent

0%43%100%

Blowouts

Expected

36%

Very Frequent

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.52

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.06

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

As Expected

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.36

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.99

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.087

Well Within Noise

00.1240.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Preston North End	99.99%	0.01%
Blackburn Rovers	96.71%	3.29%
Aston Villa	95.40%	4.60%
Wolverhampton	93.48%	6.52%
Accrington	80.70%	19.30%
West Brom	75.93%	24.07%
Everton	67.07%	32.93%
Bolton Wanderers	66.78%	33.22%
Derby County	46.24%	53.76%
Stoke City	35.37%	64.63%
Burnley	26.63%	73.37%
Notts County	15.70%	84.30%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1888-09-08	Derby County	L 3-6	1500	1500	63.90%	17.58%	18.52%	-53.7	0
1888-09-08	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 6-3	1500	1500	18.52%	17.58%	63.90%	+53.7	2
1888-09-08	Accrington	W 2-1	1500	1500	63.90%	17.58%	18.52%	+9.2	2
1888-09-08	@ Everton	L 1-2	1500	1500	18.52%	17.58%	63.90%	-9.2	0
1888-09-08	Burnley	W 5-2	1500	1500	63.90%	17.58%	18.52%	+19.5	2
1888-09-08	@ Preston North End	L 2-5	1500	1500	18.52%	17.58%	63.90%	-19.5	0
1888-09-08	West Brom	L 0-2	1500	1500	63.90%	17.58%	18.52%	-54.6	0
1888-09-08	@ Stoke City	W 2-0	1500	1500	18.52%	17.58%	63.90%	+54.6	2
1888-09-08	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1500	1500	63.90%	17.58%	18.52%	-5.0	1
1888-09-08	@ Wolverhampton	D 1-1	1500	1500	18.52%	17.58%	63.90%	+5.0	1
1888-09-15	Stoke City	W 5-1	1505	1445	68.72%	17.47%	13.81%	+22.2	3
1888-09-15	@ Aston Villa	L 1-5	1445	1505	13.81%	17.47%	68.72%	-22.2	0
1888-09-15	Accrington	D 5-5	1500	1491	64.71%	17.57%	17.72%	-2.5	1
1888-09-15	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 5-5	1491	1500	17.72%	17.57%	64.71%	+2.5	1
1888-09-15	Burnley	L 3-4	1446	1481	60.62%	17.62%	21.76%	-24.0	0
1888-09-15	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 4-3	1481	1446	21.76%	17.62%	60.62%	+24.0	2
1888-09-15	West Brom	L 1-2	1554	1555	63.81%	17.58%	18.61%	-27.3	2
1888-09-15	@ Derby County	W 2-1	1555	1554	18.61%	17.58%	63.81%	+27.3	4
1888-09-15	Notts County	W 2-1	1509	1500	64.71%	17.57%	17.72%	+8.8	4
1888-09-15	@ Everton	L 1-2	1500	1509	17.72%	17.57%	64.71%	-8.8	0
1888-09-15	Preston North End	L 0-4	1495	1519	61.59%	17.61%	20.79%	-99.9	1
1888-09-15	@ Wolverhampton	W 4-0	1519	1495	20.79%	17.61%	61.59%	+99.9	4
1888-09-22	Everton	W 2-1	1527	1518	64.71%	17.57%	17.72%	+8.8	5
1888-09-22	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1518	1527	17.72%	17.57%	64.71%	-8.8	4
1888-09-22	West Brom	W 6-2	1497	1582	55.09%	17.67%	27.25%	+34.6	3
1888-09-22	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-6	1582	1497	27.25%	17.67%	55.09%	-34.6	4
1888-09-22	Accrington	D 1-1	1526	1493	66.70%	17.52%	15.77%	-5.6	3
1888-09-22	@ Derby County	D 1-1	1493	1526	15.77%	17.52%	66.70%	+5.7	2
1888-09-22	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-1	1619	1422	76.19%	17.06%	6.75%	+6.2	6
1888-09-22	@ Preston North End	L 1-3	1422	1619	6.75%	17.06%	76.19%	-6.2	0
1888-09-22	Notts County	W 3-0	1423	1491	56.98%	17.66%	25.36%	+35.2	2
1888-09-22	@ Stoke City	L 0-3	1491	1423	25.36%	17.66%	56.98%	-35.2	0
1888-09-22	Burnley	W 4-1	1395	1505	52.05%	17.67%	30.28%	+34.5	3
1888-09-22	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1505	1395	30.28%	17.67%	52.05%	-34.5	2
1888-09-29	Notts County	W 9-1	1536	1456	70.12%	17.42%	12.46%	+38.3	7
1888-09-29	@ Aston Villa	L 1-9	1456	1536	12.46%	17.42%	70.12%	-38.3	0
1888-09-29	Everton	W 6-2	1416	1509	54.07%	17.67%	28.26%	+35.7	2
1888-09-29	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 2-6	1509	1416	28.26%	17.67%	54.07%	-35.7	4
1888-09-29	Preston North End	L 2-3	1521	1625	52.62%	17.67%	29.70%	-21.5	3
1888-09-29	@ Derby County	W 3-2	1625	1521	29.70%	17.67%	52.62%	+21.5	8
1888-09-29	Accrington	L 2-4	1458	1499	59.95%	17.63%	22.42%	-39.7	2
1888-09-29	@ Stoke City	W 4-2	1499	1458	22.42%	17.63%	59.95%	+39.7	4
1888-09-29	Burnley	W 4-3	1547	1470	69.95%	17.43%	12.63%	+6.0	6
1888-09-29	@ West Brom	L 3-4	1470	1547	12.63%	17.43%	69.95%	-6.0	2
1888-09-29	Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1430	1532	52.92%	17.67%	29.40%	-1.8	4
1888-09-29	@ Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1532	1430	29.40%	17.67%	52.92%	+1.8	4
1888-10-06	Wolverhampton	D 4-4	1539	1428	72.03%	17.34%	10.63%	-3.8	5
1888-10-06	@ Accrington	D 4-4	1428	1539	10.63%	17.34%	72.03%	+3.8	5
1888-10-06	Bolton Wanderers	W 4-1	1464	1452	64.97%	17.56%	17.47%	+21.3	4
1888-10-06	@ Burnley	L 1-4	1452	1464	17.47%	17.56%	64.97%	-21.3	2
1888-10-06	Aston Villa	W 2-0	1473	1574	53.12%	17.67%	29.21%	+27.4	6
1888-10-06	@ Everton	L 0-2	1574	1473	29.21%	17.67%	53.12%	-27.4	7
1888-10-06	Blackburn Rovers	D 3-3	1418	1534	51.19%	17.68%	31.14%	-1.3	1
1888-10-06	@ Notts County	D 3-3	1534	1418	31.14%	17.68%	51.19%	+1.3	5
1888-10-06	Stoke City	W 7-0	1647	1419	77.36%	16.94%	5.71%	+19.4	10
1888-10-06	@ Preston North End	L 0-7	1419	1647	5.71%	16.94%	77.36%	-19.4	2
1888-10-06	Derby County	W 5-0	1553	1499	68.31%	17.48%	14.21%	+33.7	8
1888-10-06	@ West Brom	L 0-5	1499	1553	14.21%	17.48%	68.31%	-33.7	3
1888-10-13	Derby County	W 6-2	1535	1466	69.40%	17.45%	13.15%	+18.0	7
1888-10-13	@ Accrington	L 2-6	1466	1535	13.15%	17.45%	69.40%	-18.0	3
1888-10-13	Blackburn Rovers	W 6-1	1547	1535	64.93%	17.56%	17.50%	+33.8	9
1888-10-13	@ Aston Villa	L 1-6	1535	1547	17.50%	17.56%	64.93%	-33.8	5
1888-10-13	Stoke City	W 2-1	1431	1399	66.57%	17.53%	15.90%	+8.0	4
1888-10-13	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1399	1431	15.90%	17.53%	66.57%	-8.0	2
1888-10-13	Wolverhampton	L 0-4	1485	1432	68.28%	17.48%	14.23%	-111.1	4
1888-10-13	@ Burnley	W 4-0	1432	1485	14.23%	17.48%	68.28%	+111.1	7
1888-10-13	Everton	W 3-1	1416	1501	55.09%	17.67%	27.24%	+22.3	3
1888-10-13	@ Notts County	L 1-3	1501	1416	27.24%	17.67%	55.09%	-22.3	6
1888-10-13	West Brom	W 3-0	1666	1587	70.08%	17.42%	12.50%	+18.6	12
1888-10-13	@ Preston North End	L 0-3	1587	1666	12.50%	17.42%	70.08%	-18.6	8
1888-10-20	Preston North End	D 0-0	1553	1685	49.13%	17.68%	33.20%	-1.8	8
1888-10-20	@ Accrington	D 0-0	1685	1553	33.20%	17.68%	49.13%	+1.8	13
1888-10-20	Wolverhampton	D 2-2	1501	1543	59.88%	17.63%	22.49%	-3.0	6
1888-10-20	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1543	1501	22.49%	17.63%	59.88%	+3.0	8
1888-10-20	Aston Villa	L 2-3	1439	1581	47.79%	17.67%	34.54%	-19.7	4
1888-10-20	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 3-2	1581	1439	34.54%	17.67%	47.79%	+19.7	11
1888-10-20	Everton	L 2-4	1448	1479	60.94%	17.62%	21.44%	-40.3	3
1888-10-20	@ Derby County	W 4-2	1479	1448	21.44%	17.62%	60.94%	+40.3	8
1888-10-20	Burnley	W 4-3	1391	1374	65.39%	17.55%	17.06%	+7.9	4
1888-10-20	@ Stoke City	L 3-4	1374	1391	17.06%	17.55%	65.39%	-7.9	4
1888-10-20	Notts County	W 4-2	1568	1439	73.08%	17.29%	9.64%	+7.8	10
1888-10-20	@ West Brom	L 2-4	1439	1568	9.64%	17.29%	73.08%	-7.8	3
1888-10-27	Accrington	W 4-3	1600	1551	67.96%	17.49%	14.55%	+6.8	13
1888-10-27	@ Aston Villa	L 3-4	1551	1600	14.55%	17.49%	67.96%	-6.8	8
1888-10-27	Stoke City	W 5-2	1498	1399	71.34%	17.37%	11.28%	+12.3	8
1888-10-27	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-5	1399	1498	11.28%	17.37%	71.34%	-12.3	4
1888-10-27	Derby County	W 6-2	1519	1407	72.08%	17.34%	10.59%	+14.7	10
1888-10-27	@ Everton	L 2-6	1407	1519	10.59%	17.34%	72.08%	-14.7	3
1888-10-27	Burnley	W 6-1	1431	1366	69.07%	17.46%	13.47%	+26.6	5
1888-10-27	@ Notts County	L 1-6	1366	1431	13.47%	17.46%	69.07%	-26.6	4
1888-10-27	Wolverhampton	W 5-2	1687	1546	73.67%	17.25%	9.08%	+10.0	15
1888-10-27	@ Preston North End	L 2-5	1546	1687	9.08%	17.25%	73.67%	-10.0	8
1888-11-03	Blackburn Rovers	L 1-7	1340	1511	43.81%	17.66%	38.52%	-88.1	4
1888-11-03	@ Burnley	W 7-1	1511	1340	38.52%	17.66%	43.81%	+88.1	10
1888-11-03	Bolton Wanderers	W 2-1	1534	1419	72.25%	17.33%	10.42%	+5.4	12
1888-11-03	@ Everton	L 1-2	1419	1534	10.42%	17.33%	72.25%	-5.4	4
1888-11-03	Preston North End	L 0-7	1458	1697	34.27%	17.60%	48.13%	-100.6	5
1888-11-03	@ Notts County	W 7-0	1697	1458	48.13%	17.60%	34.27%	+100.6	17
1888-11-03	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1387	1607	36.84%	17.62%	45.54%	+0.9	5
1888-11-03	@ Stoke City	D 1-1	1607	1387	45.54%	17.62%	36.84%	-0.9	14
1888-11-03	Accrington	D 2-2	1576	1544	66.62%	17.53%	15.86%	-4.2	11
1888-11-03	@ West Brom	D 2-2	1544	1576	15.86%	17.53%	66.62%	+4.2	9
1888-11-03	Derby County	W 4-1	1536	1393	73.78%	17.25%	8.98%	+11.5	10
1888-11-03	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1393	1536	8.98%	17.25%	73.78%	-11.5	3
1888-11-05	Bolton Wanderers	L 1-5	1572	1414	74.52%	17.20%	8.28%	-101.7	11
1888-11-05	@ West Brom	W 5-1	1414	1572	8.28%	17.20%	74.52%	+101.7	6
1888-11-10	Everton	W 3-0	1599	1539	68.74%	17.47%	13.80%	+20.4	12
1888-11-10	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-3	1539	1599	13.80%	17.47%	68.74%	-20.4	12
1888-11-10	West Brom	W 2-0	1252	1470	37.08%	17.62%	45.30%	+39.5	6
1888-11-10	@ Burnley	L 0-2	1470	1252	45.30%	17.62%	37.08%	-39.5	11
1888-11-10	Accrington	D 3-3	1357	1548	40.89%	17.65%	41.46%	+0.0	6
1888-11-10	@ Notts County	D 3-3	1548	1357	41.46%	17.65%	40.89%	-0.0	10
1888-11-10	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1797	1606	75.96%	17.08%	6.96%	-8.0	18
1888-11-10	@ Preston North End	D 1-1	1606	1797	6.96%	17.08%	75.96%	+8.0	15
1888-11-10	Bolton Wanderers	W 3-2	1547	1515	66.62%	17.53%	15.85%	+7.6	12
1888-11-10	@ Wolverhampton	L 2-3	1515	1547	15.85%	17.53%	66.62%	-7.6	6
1888-11-12	Preston North End	L 0-3	1388	1789	16.71%	17.23%	66.07%	-24.1	5
1888-11-12	@ Stoke City	W 3-0	1789	1388	66.07%	17.23%	16.71%	+24.1	20
1888-11-17	Aston Villa	W 5-1	1619	1614	64.34%	17.57%	18.09%	+28.4	14
1888-11-17	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 1-5	1614	1619	18.09%	17.57%	64.34%	-28.4	15
1888-11-17	West Brom	L 1-2	1508	1431	69.91%	17.43%	12.66%	-30.0	6
1888-11-17	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 2-1	1431	1508	12.66%	17.43%	69.91%	+30.0	13
1888-11-17	Everton	D 2-2	1291	1519	35.88%	17.61%	46.51%	+0.8	7
1888-11-17	@ Burnley	D 2-2	1519	1291	46.51%	17.61%	35.88%	-0.8	13
1888-11-17	Accrington	W 2-0	1814	1548	78.54%	16.78%	4.67%	+5.0	22
1888-11-17	@ Preston North End	L 0-2	1548	1814	4.67%	16.78%	78.54%	-5.0	10
1888-11-17	Wolverhampton	L 0-1	1364	1555	40.94%	17.65%	41.41%	-19.3	5
1888-11-17	@ Stoke City	W 1-0	1555	1364	41.41%	17.65%	40.94%	+19.3	14
1888-11-24	West Brom	W 2-1	1543	1461	70.29%	17.42%	12.29%	+6.3	12
1888-11-24	@ Accrington	L 1-2	1461	1543	12.29%	17.42%	70.29%	-6.3	13
1888-11-24	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1586	1574	64.95%	17.56%	17.49%	+8.7	17
1888-11-24	@ Aston Villa	L 1-2	1574	1586	17.49%	17.56%	64.95%	-8.7	14
1888-11-24	Preston North End	L 2-5	1478	1819	22.26%	17.40%	60.34%	-22.8	6
1888-11-24	@ Bolton Wanderers	W 5-2	1819	1478	60.34%	17.40%	22.26%	+22.8	24
1888-11-24	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-2	1381	1648	30.74%	17.56%	51.70%	-28.5	3
1888-11-24	@ Derby County	W 2-0	1648	1381	51.70%	17.56%	30.74%	+28.5	16
1888-11-24	Burnley	W 3-2	1518	1292	77.27%	16.95%	5.78%	+2.9	15
1888-11-24	@ Everton	L 2-3	1292	1518	5.78%	16.95%	77.27%	-2.9	7
1888-11-24	Stoke City	L 0-3	1357	1344	65.01%	17.56%	17.43%	-80.8	6
1888-11-24	@ Notts County	W 3-0	1344	1357	17.43%	17.56%	65.01%	+80.8	7
1888-12-01	Burnley	W 5-1	1550	1289	78.41%	16.80%	4.79%	+8.0	14
1888-12-01	@ Accrington	L 1-5	1289	1550	4.79%	16.80%	78.41%	-8.1	7
1888-12-01	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-1	1425	1676	32.72%	17.58%	49.70%	+21.4	9
1888-12-01	@ Stoke City	L 1-2	1676	1425	49.70%	17.58%	32.72%	-21.4	16
1888-12-01	West Brom	L 1-4	1521	1454	69.18%	17.45%	13.36%	-72.7	15
1888-12-01	@ Everton	W 4-1	1454	1521	13.36%	17.45%	69.18%	+72.7	15
1888-12-08	Bolton Wanderers	D 4-4	1655	1455	76.31%	17.05%	6.64%	-4.4	17
1888-12-08	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 4-4	1455	1655	6.64%	17.05%	76.31%	+4.4	7
1888-12-08	Stoke City	W 2-1	1281	1446	44.59%	17.67%	37.74%	+17.0	9
1888-12-08	@ Burnley	L 1-2	1446	1281	37.74%	17.67%	44.59%	-17.0	9
1888-12-08	Aston Villa	L 2-4	1276	1595	24.64%	17.46%	57.91%	-18.2	6
1888-12-08	@ Notts County	W 4-2	1595	1276	57.91%	17.46%	24.64%	+18.2	19
1888-12-08	Derby County	W 5-0	1841	1353	83.05%	15.58%	1.37%	+3.4	26
1888-12-08	@ Preston North End	L 0-5	1353	1841	1.37%	15.58%	83.05%	-3.4	3
1888-12-08	Accrington	W 4-0	1565	1558	64.56%	17.57%	17.87%	+33.7	16
1888-12-08	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-4	1558	1565	17.87%	17.57%	64.56%	-33.7	14
1888-12-15	Aston Villa	D 1-1	1524	1613	54.58%	17.67%	27.75%	-2.8	15
1888-12-15	@ Accrington	D 1-1	1613	1524	27.75%	17.67%	54.58%	+2.8	20
1888-12-15	Notts County	W 5-2	1650	1258	81.52%	16.15%	2.33%	+2.6	19
1888-12-15	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-5	1258	1650	2.33%	16.15%	81.52%	-2.6	6
1888-12-15	Preston North End	D 2-2	1298	1845	8.00%	16.65%	75.35%	+5.8	10
1888-12-15	@ Burnley	D 2-2	1845	1298	75.35%	16.65%	8.00%	-5.8	27
1888-12-15	Everton	D 0-0	1430	1448	62.17%	17.61%	20.22%	-5.1	10
1888-12-15	@ Stoke City	D 0-0	1448	1430	20.22%	17.61%	62.17%	+5.1	16
1888-12-15	West Brom	W 2-1	1599	1527	69.57%	17.44%	12.99%	+6.6	18
1888-12-15	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1527	1599	12.99%	17.44%	69.57%	-6.6	15
1888-12-22	Burnley	W 4-2	1616	1304	79.81%	16.57%	3.63%	+3.0	22
1888-12-22	@ Aston Villa	L 2-4	1304	1616	3.63%	16.57%	79.81%	-3.0	10
1888-12-22	Accrington	W 4-1	1459	1521	57.65%	17.65%	24.70%	+29.0	9
1888-12-22	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-4	1521	1459	24.70%	17.65%	57.65%	-29.0	15
1888-12-22	Notts County	W 3-2	1349	1255	71.01%	17.39%	11.61%	+5.7	5
1888-12-22	@ Derby County	L 2-3	1255	1349	11.61%	17.39%	71.01%	-5.7	6
1888-12-22	Everton	W 3-0	1839	1453	81.40%	16.18%	2.42%	+3.7	29
1888-12-22	@ Preston North End	L 0-3	1453	1839	2.42%	16.18%	81.40%	-3.7	16
1888-12-22	Blackburn Rovers	W 2-1	1521	1653	49.08%	17.68%	33.24%	+15.3	17
1888-12-22	@ West Brom	L 1-2	1653	1521	33.24%	17.68%	49.08%	-15.3	19
1888-12-22	Stoke City	W 4-1	1606	1424	75.54%	17.12%	7.34%	+9.5	20
1888-12-22	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-4	1424	1606	7.34%	17.12%	75.54%	-9.5	10
1888-12-26	Preston North End	L 0-5	1536	1843	25.91%	17.48%	56.61%	-57.6	17
1888-12-26	@ West Brom	W 5-0	1843	1536	56.61%	17.48%	25.91%	+57.6	31
1888-12-26	Bolton Wanderers	L 2-3	1355	1488	48.96%	17.68%	33.37%	-20.1	5
1888-12-26	@ Derby County	W 3-2	1488	1355	33.37%	17.68%	48.96%	+20.1	11
1888-12-29	Everton	W 3-1	1492	1449	67.48%	17.50%	15.02%	+13.1	17
1888-12-29	@ Accrington	L 1-3	1449	1492	15.02%	17.50%	67.48%	-13.1	16
1888-12-29	Derby County	W 4-2	1619	1335	79.08%	16.70%	4.22%	+3.5	24
1888-12-29	@ Aston Villa	L 2-4	1335	1619	4.22%	16.70%	79.08%	-3.5	5
1888-12-29	Wolverhampton	W 2-1	1508	1615	52.37%	17.67%	29.96%	+14.0	13
1888-12-29	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 1-2	1615	1508	29.96%	17.67%	52.37%	-14.0	20
1888-12-29	Notts County	W 1-0	1301	1250	68.10%	17.49%	14.41%	+7.8	12
1888-12-29	@ Burnley	L 0-1	1250	1301	14.41%	17.49%	68.10%	-7.7	6
1888-12-29	Blackburn Rovers	W 1-0	1900	1638	78.47%	16.79%	4.74%	+2.7	33
1888-12-29	@ Preston North End	L 0-1	1638	1900	4.74%	16.79%	78.47%	-2.7	19
1888-12-29	Stoke City	W 2-0	1478	1415	68.98%	17.46%	13.56%	+13.8	19
1888-12-29	@ West Brom	L 0-2	1415	1478	13.56%	17.46%	68.98%	-13.8	10
1889-01-05	Aston Villa	W 4-0	1309	1622	25.17%	17.47%	57.36%	+92.9	14
1889-01-05	@ Burnley	L 0-4	1622	1309	57.36%	17.47%	25.17%	-92.9	24
1889-01-05	Notts County	W 4-1	1903	1242	85.06%	14.41%	0.53%	+0.7	35
1889-01-05	@ Preston North End	L 1-4	1242	1903	0.53%	14.41%	85.06%	-0.7	6
1889-01-05	Wolverhampton	L 1-3	1492	1601	52.09%	17.67%	30.23%	-38.8	19
1889-01-05	@ West Brom	W 3-1	1601	1492	30.23%	17.67%	52.09%	+38.8	22
1889-01-12	Bolton Wanderers	W 6-2	1529	1522	64.52%	17.57%	17.91%	+23.9	26
1889-01-12	@ Aston Villa	L 2-6	1522	1529	17.91%	17.57%	64.52%	-23.9	13
1889-01-12	Preston North End	D 2-2	1635	1904	30.48%	17.55%	51.97%	+1.7	20
1889-01-12	@ Blackburn Rovers	D 2-2	1904	1635	51.97%	17.55%	30.48%	-1.7	36
1889-01-12	Accrington	D 2-2	1402	1505	52.73%	17.67%	29.59%	-1.8	15
1889-01-12	@ Burnley	D 2-2	1505	1402	29.59%	17.67%	52.73%	+1.8	18
1889-01-12	Wolverhampton	W 3-0	1331	1640	25.72%	17.48%	56.81%	+70.5	7
1889-01-12	@ Derby County	L 0-3	1640	1331	56.81%	17.48%	25.72%	-70.5	22
1889-01-12	Stoke City	W 2-1	1436	1401	66.87%	17.52%	15.61%	+7.9	18
1889-01-12	@ Everton	L 1-2	1401	1436	15.61%	17.52%	66.87%	-7.9	10
1889-01-12	West Brom	W 2-1	1241	1453	37.99%	17.63%	44.38%	+19.4	8
1889-01-12	@ Notts County	L 1-2	1453	1241	44.38%	17.63%	37.99%	-19.4	19
1889-01-19	Blackburn Rovers	L 0-2	1507	1637	49.47%	17.68%	32.86%	-42.7	18
1889-01-19	@ Accrington	W 2-0	1637	1507	32.86%	17.68%	49.47%	+42.7	22
1889-01-19	West Brom	W 2-0	1553	1434	72.50%	17.32%	10.18%	+10.6	28
1889-01-19	@ Aston Villa	L 0-2	1434	1553	10.18%	17.32%	72.50%	-10.6	19
1889-01-19	Derby County	W 1-0	1400	1402	63.71%	17.58%	18.70%	+9.8	17
1889-01-19	@ Burnley	L 0-1	1402	1400	18.70%	17.58%	63.71%	-9.8	7
1889-01-19	Preston North End	L 0-2	1444	1902	12.65%	17.03%	70.32%	-12.8	18
1889-01-19	@ Everton	W 2-0	1902	1444	70.32%	17.03%	12.65%	+12.8	38
1889-01-19	Wolverhampton	W 3-0	1261	1569	25.70%	17.48%	56.82%	+70.5	10
1889-01-19	@ Notts County	L 0-3	1569	1261	56.82%	17.48%	25.70%	-70.5	22
1889-01-19	Bolton Wanderers	D 2-2	1393	1498	52.59%	17.67%	29.74%	-1.8	11
1889-01-19	@ Stoke City	D 2-2	1498	1393	29.74%	17.67%	52.59%	+1.8	14
1889-01-26	Notts County	L 1-2	1464	1331	73.27%	17.28%	9.46%	-31.6	18
1889-01-26	@ Accrington	W 2-1	1331	1464	9.46%	17.28%	73.27%	+31.6	12
1889-01-26	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-2	1500	1679	42.64%	17.66%	39.70%	+16.8	16
1889-01-26	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 2-3	1679	1500	39.70%	17.66%	42.64%	-16.8	22
1889-01-26	Stoke City	W 2-1	1392	1392	63.93%	17.58%	18.49%	+9.2	9
1889-01-26	@ Derby County	L 1-2	1392	1392	18.49%	17.58%	63.93%	-9.2	11
1889-01-26	Aston Villa	D 3-3	1423	1564	48.03%	17.67%	34.30%	-0.9	20
1889-01-26	@ West Brom	D 3-3	1564	1423	34.30%	17.67%	48.03%	+0.9	29
1889-01-26	Everton	W 4-0	1499	1431	69.29%	17.45%	13.26%	+25.7	24
1889-01-26	@ Wolverhampton	L 0-4	1431	1499	13.26%	17.45%	69.29%	-25.7	18
1889-02-04	Burnley	W 4-2	1663	1410	78.17%	16.84%	4.99%	+4.1	24
1889-02-04	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 2-4	1410	1663	4.99%	16.84%	78.17%	-4.1	17
1889-02-09	Preston North End	L 0-2	1564	1915	21.32%	17.38%	61.30%	-20.7	29
1889-02-09	@ Aston Villa	W 2-0	1915	1564	61.30%	17.38%	21.32%	+20.7	40
1889-02-09	Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1406	1525	50.83%	17.68%	31.50%	-21.9	18
1889-02-09	@ Everton	W 2-1	1525	1406	31.50%	17.68%	50.83%	+21.9	26
1889-02-23	Everton	W 1-0	1422	1384	67.16%	17.51%	15.33%	+8.2	22
1889-02-23	@ West Brom	L 0-1	1384	1422	15.33%	17.51%	67.16%	-8.2	18
1889-02-23	Notts County	W 2-1	1546	1363	75.65%	17.11%	7.24%	+3.8	28
1889-02-23	@ Wolverhampton	L 1-2	1363	1546	7.24%	17.11%	75.65%	-3.8	12
1889-03-02	Burnley	W 1-0	1401	1405	63.50%	17.59%	18.91%	+9.9	11
1889-03-02	@ Derby County	L 0-1	1405	1401	18.91%	17.59%	63.50%	-9.9	17
1889-03-05	Bolton Wanderers	L 0-4	1359	1517	45.62%	17.67%	36.71%	-75.5	12
1889-03-05	@ Notts County	W 4-0	1517	1359	36.71%	17.67%	45.62%	+75.5	18
1889-03-09	Notts County	W 7-3	1592	1283	79.74%	16.58%	3.68%	+4.8	20
1889-03-09	@ Bolton Wanderers	L 3-7	1283	1592	3.68%	16.58%	79.74%	-4.8	12
1889-03-09	Aston Villa	W 5-2	1411	1544	49.03%	17.68%	33.29%	+32.4	13
1889-03-09	@ Derby County	L 2-5	1544	1411	33.29%	17.68%	49.03%	-32.4	29
1889-03-16	Derby County	L 3-5	1279	1443	44.68%	17.67%	37.66%	-28.6	12
1889-03-16	@ Notts County	W 5-3	1443	1279	37.66%	17.67%	44.68%	+28.6	15
1889-03-23	Bolton Wanderers	L 2-3	1433	1597	44.75%	17.67%	37.59%	-18.6	18
1889-03-23	@ Accrington	W 3-2	1597	1433	37.59%	17.67%	44.75%	+18.6	22
1889-03-30	Blackburn Rovers	W 3-1	1375	1667	27.73%	17.51%	54.76%	+40.6	20
1889-03-30	@ Everton	L 1-3	1667	1375	54.76%	17.51%	27.73%	-40.6	24
1889-04-06	Derby County	D 1-1	1382	1472	54.47%	17.67%	27.87%	-2.8	12
1889-04-06	@ Stoke City	D 1-1	1472	1382	27.87%	17.67%	54.47%	+2.8	16
1889-04-15	Derby County	W 3-0	1626	1475	74.18%	17.22%	8.60%	+13.1	26
1889-04-15	@ Blackburn Rovers	L 0-3	1475	1626	8.60%	17.22%	74.18%	-13.1	16
1889-04-20	Stoke City	W 2-0	1414	1380	66.84%	17.52%	15.64%	+15.7	20
1889-04-20	@ Accrington	L 0-2	1380	1414	15.64%	17.52%	66.84%	-15.7	12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1888-11-05	8.28%	Bolton Wanderers	1414	5	@ West Brom	1572	1
2	1889-01-26	9.46%	Notts County	1331	2	@ Accrington	1464	1
3	1888-11-17	12.66%	West Brom	1431	2	@ Bolton Wanderers	1508	1
4	1888-12-01	13.36%	West Brom	1454	4	@ Everton	1521	1
5	1888-10-13	14.23%	Wolverhampton	1432	4	@ Burnley	1485	0
6	1888-11-24	17.43%	Stoke City	1344	3	@ Notts County	1357	0
7	1888-09-08	18.52%	Derby County	1500	6	@ Bolton Wanderers	1500	3
8	1888-09-08	18.52%	West Brom	1500	2	@ Stoke City	1500	0
9	1888-09-15	18.61%	West Brom	1555	2	@ Derby County	1554	1
10	1888-09-15	20.79%	Preston North End	1519	4	@ Wolverhampton	1495	0
11	1888-10-20	21.44%	Everton	1479	4	@ Derby County	1448	2
12	1888-09-15	21.76%	Burnley	1481	4	@ Bolton Wanderers	1446	3
13	1888-09-29	22.42%	Accrington	1499	4	@ Stoke City	1458	2
14	1889-01-05	25.17%	@ Burnley	1309	4	Aston Villa	1622	0
15	1889-01-19	25.70%	@ Notts County	1261	3	Wolverhampton	1569	0
16	1889-01-12	25.72%	@ Derby County	1331	3	Wolverhampton	1640	0
17	1889-03-30	27.73%	@ Everton	1375	3	Blackburn Rovers	1667	1
18	1888-09-29	29.70%	Preston North End	1625	3	@ Derby County	1521	2
19	1889-01-05	30.23%	Wolverhampton	1601	3	@ West Brom	1492	1
20	1889-02-09	31.50%	Wolverhampton	1525	2	@ Everton	1406	1
21	1888-12-01	32.72%	@ Stoke City	1425	2	Blackburn Rovers	1676	1
22	1889-01-19	32.86%	Blackburn Rovers	1637	2	@ Accrington	1507	0
23	1888-12-26	33.37%	Bolton Wanderers	1488	3	@ Derby County	1355	2
24	1888-10-20	34.54%	Aston Villa	1581	3	@ Bolton Wanderers	1439	2
25	1889-03-05	36.71%	Bolton Wanderers	1517	4	@ Notts County	1359	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1888-10-13	111.08	Wolverhampton	4	1432	14.23%	@ Burnley	0	1485	68.28%	17.48%
2	1888-11-05	101.68	Bolton Wanderers	5	1414	8.28%	@ West Brom	1	1572	74.52%	17.20%
3	1888-11-03	100.64	Preston North End	7	1697	48.13%	@ Notts County	0	1458	34.27%	17.60%
4	1888-09-15	99.86	Preston North End	4	1519	20.79%	@ Wolverhampton	0	1495	61.59%	17.61%
5	1889-01-05	92.93	@ Burnley	4	1309	25.17%	Aston Villa	0	1622	57.36%	17.47%
6	1888-11-03	88.07	Blackburn Rovers	7	1511	38.52%	@ Burnley	1	1340	43.81%	17.66%
7	1888-11-24	80.77	Stoke City	3	1344	17.43%	@ Notts County	0	1357	65.01%	17.56%
8	1889-03-05	75.51	Bolton Wanderers	4	1517	36.71%	@ Notts County	0	1359	45.62%	17.67%
9	1888-12-01	72.70	West Brom	4	1454	13.36%	@ Everton	1	1521	69.18%	17.45%
10	1889-01-19	70.49	@ Notts County	3	1261	25.70%	Wolverhampton	0	1569	56.82%	17.48%
11	1889-01-12	70.48	@ Derby County	3	1331	25.72%	Wolverhampton	0	1640	56.81%	17.48%
12	1888-12-26	57.56	Preston North End	5	1843	56.61%	@ West Brom	0	1536	25.91%	17.48%
13	1888-09-08	54.63	West Brom	2	1500	18.52%	@ Stoke City	0	1500	63.90%	17.58%
14	1888-09-08	53.65	Derby County	6	1500	18.52%	@ Bolton Wanderers	3	1500	63.90%	17.58%
15	1889-01-19	42.74	Blackburn Rovers	2	1637	32.86%	@ Accrington	0	1507	49.47%	17.68%
16	1889-03-30	40.59	@ Everton	3	1375	27.73%	Blackburn Rovers	1	1667	54.76%	17.51%
17	1888-10-20	40.34	Everton	4	1479	21.44%	@ Derby County	2	1448	60.94%	17.62%
18	1888-09-29	39.68	Accrington	4	1499	22.42%	@ Stoke City	2	1458	59.95%	17.63%
19	1888-11-10	39.53	@ Burnley	2	1252	37.08%	West Brom	0	1470	45.30%	17.62%
20	1889-01-05	38.80	Wolverhampton	3	1601	30.23%	@ West Brom	1	1492	52.09%	17.67%
21	1888-09-29	38.29	@ Aston Villa	9	1536	70.12%	Notts County	1	1456	12.46%	17.42%
22	1888-09-29	35.69	@ Bolton Wanderers	6	1416	54.07%	Everton	2	1509	28.26%	17.67%
23	1888-09-22	35.18	@ Stoke City	3	1423	56.98%	Notts County	0	1491	25.36%	17.66%
24	1888-09-22	34.58	@ Blackburn Rovers	6	1497	55.09%	West Brom	2	1582	27.25%	17.67%
25	1888-09-22	34.55	@ Wolverhampton	4	1395	52.05%	Burnley	1	1505	30.28%	17.67%