1973 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Hvidovre

27 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1966

Relegated

Aarhus GF

17 pts

AB Gladsaxe · 19 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KB Copenhagen

5.76 points above expected

26 points · 20.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

AB Gladsaxe

3.02 points below expected

19 points · 22.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Hvidovre Champion	22	10	7	5	27	52	33	+19	23.96	+3.04
2	Randers	22	10	6	6	26	35	26	+9	22.69	+3.31
3	KB Copenhagen	22	10	6	6	26	43	43	0	20.24	+5.76
4	Vejle BK	22	10	3	9	23	40	31	+9	25.12	-2.12
5	Koge BK	22	10	3	9	23	29	28	+1	20.79	+2.21
6	Aalborg	22	6	9	7	21	32	30	+2	22.46	-1.46
7	Naestved	22	8	5	9	21	36	40	-4	21.97	-0.97
8	B 1901	22	8	5	9	21	45	54	-9	22.54	-1.54
9	B 1903	22	6	8	8	20	25	28	-3	22.62	-2.62
10	Frem	22	6	8	8	20	38	45	-7	21.27	-1.27
11	AB Gladsaxe Relegated	22	7	5	10	19	34	40	-6	22.02	-3.02
12	Aarhus GF Relegated	22	5	7	10	17	25	36	-11	18.33	-1.33

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Hvidovre	1421	27	23.96	+3.04	82.9%	11	18	21	24	27	30	36
Vejle BK	1409	23	25.12	-2.12	33.2%	11	19	23	25	28	31	40
Randers	1388	26	22.69	+3.31	84.7%	10	16	20	23	25	29	38
B 1903	1350	20	22.62	-2.62	29.0%	8	16	20	23	25	29	36
Aalborg	1343	21	22.46	-1.46	39.7%	7	16	20	22	25	29	39
B 1901	1337	21	22.54	-1.54	39.0%	8	16	20	23	25	29	35
Naestved	1330	21	21.97	-0.97	45.5%	9	16	19	22	25	28	38
Koge BK	1326	23	20.79	+2.21	76.5%	6	15	18	21	23	27	34
KB Copenhagen	1319	26	20.24	+5.76	95.1%	7	14	18	20	23	26	35
AB Gladsaxe	1312	19	22.02	-3.02	24.9%	9	16	20	22	25	28	36
Frem	1305	20	21.27	-1.27	41.6%	7	15	19	21	24	27	36
Aarhus GF	1246	17	18.33	-1.33	41.5%	4	12	16	18	21	25	34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AAL	AG	B1	B1	FRE	HVI	KC	KB	NAE	RAN	VB
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-1-0 2.62	0-0-2 3.32	0-1-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.56	0-0-2 2.84	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.47	2-0-0 2.29
Aalborg	0-1-1 2.81	—	1-1-0 3.22	1-1-0 2.68	0-1-1 2.72	0-2-0 2.93	0-2-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.74	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.40
Aarhus GF	2-0-0 2.13	0-1-1 2.22	—	1-1-0 2.09	0-1-1 2.16	0-0-2 2.40	0-1-1 1.87	0-2-0 2.58	0-0-2 2.46	1-0-1 2.22	0-1-1 2.19	1-0-1 1.96
B 1901	1-1-0 2.78	0-1-1 2.75	0-1-1 3.35	—	2-0-0 2.66	1-1-0 2.76	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-2 3.01	2-0-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 2.36
B 1903	1-1-0 2.87	1-1-0 2.71	1-1-0 3.28	0-0-2 2.76	—	2-0-0 2.82	0-2-0 2.56	0-0-2 3.01	0-0-2 3.01	0-1-1 2.79	0-2-0 2.62	1-0-1 2.38
Frem	2-0-0 2.59	0-2-0 2.51	2-0-0 3.03	0-1-1 2.68	0-0-2 2.61	—	0-1-1 2.37	1-1-0 2.82	0-1-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.64	1-0-1 2.63	0-0-2 2.21
Hvidovre	1-1-0 2.71	0-2-0 2.98	1-1-0 3.58	2-0-0 2.80	0-2-0 2.87	1-1-0 3.06	—	0-0-2 3.33	2-0-0 3.09	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.59
KB Copenhagen	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.45	0-2-0 2.85	2-0-0 2.42	2-0-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.61	2-0-0 2.10	—	0-0-2 2.73	1-1-0 2.53	0-1-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.10
Koge BK	0-1-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.52	2-0-0 2.98	0-0-2 2.53	2-0-0 2.43	1-1-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.35	2-0-0 2.70	—	0-0-2 2.63	1-1-0 2.45	1-0-1 2.17
Naestved	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 3.22	1-0-1 2.59	1-1-0 2.64	0-2-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.80	—	0-0-2 2.52	0-1-1 2.37
Randers	1-0-1 2.97	1-1-0 2.70	1-1-0 3.26	1-0-1 2.70	0-2-0 2.80	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.56	1-1-0 2.98	0-1-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.91	—	1-0-1 2.28
Vejle BK	0-0-2 3.15	1-0-1 3.03	1-0-1 3.49	1-1-0 3.07	1-0-1 3.06	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 3.34	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 3.07	1-0-1 3.15	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.41	+2.4
Allowed	0.06	-0.9
Differential	0.69	+2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.27%	8.33%	4.17%	3.79%	1.14%	0.38%	20.08%
1	8.33%	12.88%	5.68%	3.41%	2.27%	1.14%	33.71%
2	4.17%	5.68%	9.85%	1.89%	0.76%	1.14%	23.48%
3	3.79%	3.41%	1.89%	1.52%	1.52%	0.76%	12.88%
4	1.14%	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	—	—	5.68%
5+	0.38%	1.14%	1.14%	0.76%	—	0.76%	4.17%
Total	20.08%	33.71%	23.48%	12.88%	5.68%	4.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.37	1.37	1.87
CV	0.83	0.83	—
Max	7	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	22.73%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.82	-0.27
SD	1.34	1.37	2.03
CV	0.86	0.75	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	27.27%	—	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	54.55%	13.64%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.36	+0.09
SD	1.34	0.95	1.66
CV	0.92	0.70	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	—	22.73%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	50.00%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.64	-0.50
SD	1.21	1.43	1.85
CV	1.06	0.88	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	40.91%
2	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
Total	4.55%	36.36%	9.09%	31.82%	—	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.45	-0.41
SD	1.17	1.65	1.76
CV	0.57	0.67	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	45.45%
2	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	40.91%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.27	-0.14
SD	0.83	0.88	1.04
CV	0.73	0.69	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
2	—	13.64%	27.27%	—	—	—	40.91%
3	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	—	36.36%	45.45%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	2.05	-0.32
SD	1.52	1.36	1.89
CV	0.88	0.67	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	0	1	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	31.82%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.50	+0.86
SD	1.81	1.41	2.27
CV	0.77	0.94	—
Max	7	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	22.73%	31.82%	27.27%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.95	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.36	1.80
CV	0.70	0.70	—
Max	5	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	45.45%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.27	+0.05
SD	1.43	1.24	2.08
CV	1.08	0.98	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	22.73%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	4.55%	31.82%	13.64%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.82	-0.18
SD	1.33	1.50	1.92
CV	0.81	0.83	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	45.45%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.18	+0.41
SD	1.22	1.33	1.99
CV	0.77	1.13	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	13.64%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
Total	31.82%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	1.41	+0.41
SD	1.40	1.44	1.94
CV	0.77	1.02	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KB Copenhagen	26	20.24	+5.76
2	Randers	26	22.69	+3.31
3	Hvidovre	27	23.96	+3.04
4	Koge BK	23	20.79	+2.21
5	Naestved	21	21.97	-0.97

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe	19	22.02	-3.02
2	B 1903	20	22.62	-2.62
3	Vejle BK	23	25.12	-2.12
4	B 1901	21	22.54	-1.54
5	Aalborg	21	22.46	-1.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hvidovre	5	Aug 16 – Sep 16	1 in 285
2	Randers	4	Sep 2 – Oct 7	1 in 57
3	Vejle BK	4	May 20 – Jun 10	1 in 23
4	B 1903	3	Aug 26 – Sep 16	1 in 18
5	B 1901	3	May 6 – May 20	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Frem	4	Aug 25 – Sep 30	1 in 147
2	Aarhus GF	6	Aug 20 – Oct 7	1 in 109
3	B 1903	3	May 6 – May 20	1 in 50
4	Vejle BK	3	Apr 29 – May 13	1 in 41
5	Naestved	3	Apr 15 – Apr 29	1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Frem	8	Apr 29 – Jun 17	1 in 48
2	Randers	8	Sep 2 – Nov 11	1 in 25
3	Hvidovre	8	Aug 16 – Oct 20	1 in 23
4	Aalborg	6	Apr 8 – May 13	1 in 17
5	Naestved	5	Jun 13 – Aug 26	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B 1903	8	Apr 22 – Jun 13	1 in 45
2	Aalborg	7	Sep 16 – Nov 11	1 in 31
3	Hvidovre	7	May 6 – Jun 17	1 in 27
4	Frem	6	Aug 25 – Oct 21	1 in 19
5	Aarhus GF	9	Jun 14 – Oct 7	1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Hvidovre	17.97%	14.95%	12.31%	10.79%	8.91%	7.75%	7.18%	6.06%	5.05%	4.00%	3.06%	1.97%
Randers	10.12%	10.20%	10.39%	10.07%	9.81%	9.65%	8.87%	7.84%	7.61%	6.15%	5.42%	3.87%
KB Copenhagen	2.75%	4.13%	4.94%	6.07%	6.70%	7.68%	8.88%	9.80%	10.90%	12.00%	13.37%	12.78%
Vejle BK	25.70%	16.88%	13.49%	9.86%	8.26%	6.97%	5.62%	4.51%	3.25%	2.77%	1.50%	1.19%
Koge BK	3.47%	5.11%	5.99%	7.26%	7.68%	8.65%	9.15%	10.55%	10.35%	10.73%	10.95%	10.11%
Aalborg	8.21%	9.42%	9.58%	9.84%	9.14%	9.75%	8.61%	8.56%	8.17%	7.66%	6.37%	4.69%
Naestved	6.04%	7.56%	8.30%	8.44%	9.27%	8.84%	8.70%	9.07%	8.84%	9.34%	8.47%	7.13%
B 1901	7.08%	8.60%	8.76%	9.56%	9.33%	9.44%	9.23%	8.67%	8.52%	7.99%	7.00%	5.82%
B 1903	8.05%	9.29%	9.11%	9.66%	9.75%	9.19%	9.25%	8.59%	8.65%	7.20%	6.63%	4.63%
Frem	4.09%	5.31%	6.55%	7.65%	7.87%	8.45%	9.29%	9.65%	10.40%	10.52%	10.74%	9.48%
AB Gladsaxe	5.75%	7.08%	8.67%	8.27%	9.50%	9.04%	9.25%	9.58%	9.23%	9.03%	8.07%	6.53%
Aarhus GF	0.77%	1.47%	1.91%	2.53%	3.78%	4.59%	5.97%	7.12%	9.03%	12.61%	18.42%	31.80%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+18.18%

Clear Edge

45.45%27.27%27.27%

Elo Value

Home Edge

219 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

063.88600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.32 goals

Neutral

-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.3

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

18%

Hvidovre, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.01 * Some Luck: 3.01 to 4.51 * Lucky: 4.51 to 6.01 * Wild Swing: 6.01 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.42 * Close: 2.42 to 3.62 * Off: 3.62 to 4.83 * Way Off: 4.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.24 * A Surprise: 1.24 to 1.98 * Several Surprises: 1.98 to 2.72 * Many Surprises: 2.72 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.70 points

As Expected

03.769

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.67

03.028

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.05%

KB Copenhagen

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

24.85%

AB Gladsaxe

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.07

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.66

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

56%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

73%

Clear Edge

50%72%100%

Close Games

Expected

62%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.52

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.26

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Shaky Favorites

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.

Probability calibration

0.62

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.29

Overconfident

0.07453761.001.92546

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.056

Well Within Noise

00.1250.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Vejle BK	97.31%	2.69%
Hvidovre	94.97%	5.03%
Randers	90.71%	9.29%
Aalborg	88.94%	11.06%
B 1903	88.74%	11.26%
B 1901	87.18%	12.82%
AB Gladsaxe	85.40%	14.60%
Naestved	84.40%	15.60%
Frem	79.78%	20.22%
Koge BK	78.94%	21.06%
KB Copenhagen	73.85%	26.15%
Aarhus GF	49.78%	50.22%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1973-04-07	Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1359	1266	58.53%	26.66%	14.81%	-1.4	1
1973-04-07	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1266	1359	14.81%	26.66%	58.53%	+1.4	1
1973-04-08	Koge BK	L 0-2	1367	1309	55.16%	27.50%	17.35%	-12.7	0
1973-04-08	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1309	1367	17.35%	27.50%	55.16%	+12.7	2
1973-04-08	Frem	L 1-2	1310	1333	45.94%	28.75%	25.32%	-5.4	0
1973-04-08	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1333	1310	25.32%	28.75%	45.94%	+5.4	2
1973-04-08	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1350	1342	49.69%	28.40%	21.91%	+6.2	2
1973-04-08	@ Naestved	L 0-2	1342	1350	21.91%	28.40%	49.69%	-6.2	0
1973-04-08	Aalborg	D 1-1	1350	1343	49.53%	28.42%	22.05%	-0.7	1
1973-04-08	@ Randers	D 1-1	1343	1350	22.05%	28.42%	49.53%	+0.7	1
1973-04-08	B 1901	W 2-1	1394	1362	52.36%	28.02%	19.62%	+2.8	2
1973-04-08	@ Vejle BK	L 1-2	1362	1394	19.62%	28.02%	52.36%	-2.8	0
1973-04-14	B 1903	L 0-1	1338	1355	46.75%	28.69%	24.56%	-5.8	2
1973-04-14	@ Frem	W 1-0	1355	1338	24.56%	28.69%	46.75%	+5.8	2
1973-04-15	Naestved	W 2-0	1344	1356	47.27%	28.65%	24.08%	+6.7	3
1973-04-15	@ Aalborg	L 0-2	1356	1344	24.08%	28.65%	47.27%	-6.7	2
1973-04-15	B 1901	W 3-1	1268	1359	36.88%	28.87%	34.24%	+7.5	3
1973-04-15	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1359	1268	34.24%	28.87%	36.88%	-7.5	0
1973-04-15	Randers	W 1-0	1335	1350	47.00%	28.67%	24.33%	+3.6	2
1973-04-15	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1350	1335	24.33%	28.67%	47.00%	-3.6	1
1973-04-15	Vejle BK	W 2-1	1305	1397	36.76%	28.87%	34.37%	+4.3	2
1973-04-15	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1397	1305	34.37%	28.87%	36.76%	-4.3	2
1973-04-15	Hvidovre	L 0-1	1321	1358	44.28%	28.84%	26.88%	-5.6	2
1973-04-15	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1358	1321	26.88%	28.84%	44.28%	+5.6	3
1973-04-19	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1363	1339	51.49%	28.16%	20.35%	-0.6	4
1973-04-19	@ Hvidovre	D 2-2	1339	1363	20.35%	28.16%	51.49%	+0.6	3
1973-04-22	Aalborg	D 2-2	1360	1351	49.84%	28.38%	21.77%	-0.5	3
1973-04-22	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1351	1360	21.77%	28.38%	49.84%	+0.5	4
1973-04-22	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1349	1275	56.75%	27.13%	16.12%	-11.2	2
1973-04-22	@ Naestved	W 3-1	1275	1349	16.12%	27.13%	56.75%	+11.2	5
1973-04-22	KB Copenhagen	D 3-3	1346	1309	52.91%	27.93%	19.16%	-0.6	2
1973-04-22	@ Randers	D 3-3	1309	1346	19.16%	27.93%	52.91%	+0.6	3
1973-04-22	Frem	W 2-0	1393	1332	55.32%	27.46%	17.22%	+5.0	4
1973-04-22	@ Vejle BK	L 0-2	1332	1393	17.22%	27.46%	55.32%	-5.0	2
1973-04-23	Koge BK	W 1-0	1352	1316	52.75%	27.96%	19.29%	+2.9	2
1973-04-23	@ B 1901	L 0-1	1316	1352	19.29%	27.96%	52.75%	-3.0	2
1973-04-28	B 1901	W 5-2	1363	1355	49.64%	28.41%	21.96%	+6.6	6
1973-04-28	@ Hvidovre	L 2-5	1355	1363	21.96%	28.41%	49.64%	-6.6	2
1973-04-29	Vejle BK	W 1-0	1351	1398	42.97%	28.89%	28.14%	+4.0	6
1973-04-29	@ Aalborg	L 0-1	1398	1351	28.14%	28.89%	42.97%	-4.0	4
1973-04-29	Frem	L 1-2	1286	1327	43.65%	28.87%	27.48%	-5.2	5
1973-04-29	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1327	1286	27.48%	28.87%	43.65%	+5.2	4
1973-04-29	B 1903	D 0-0	1340	1360	46.26%	28.73%	25.02%	-0.6	4
1973-04-29	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1360	1340	25.02%	28.73%	46.26%	+0.6	4
1973-04-29	Naestved	W 3-2	1309	1338	45.21%	28.79%	26.00%	+3.3	5
1973-04-29	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1338	1309	26.00%	28.79%	45.21%	-3.3	2
1973-04-29	Randers	W 1-0	1313	1346	44.73%	28.82%	26.45%	+3.8	4
1973-04-29	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1346	1313	26.45%	28.82%	44.73%	-3.8	2
1973-05-06	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1348	1339	49.77%	28.39%	21.84%	+3.1	4
1973-05-06	@ B 1901	L 1-2	1339	1348	21.84%	28.39%	49.77%	-3.1	4
1973-05-06	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1361	1313	54.03%	27.73%	18.24%	-6.2	4
1973-05-06	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1313	1361	18.24%	27.73%	54.03%	+6.2	7
1973-05-06	Aalborg	D 1-1	1333	1355	45.98%	28.74%	25.28%	-0.5	5
1973-05-06	@ Frem	D 1-1	1355	1333	25.28%	28.74%	45.98%	+0.5	7
1973-05-06	Naestved	L 0-1	1317	1335	46.53%	28.71%	24.76%	-5.8	4
1973-05-06	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1335	1317	24.76%	28.71%	46.53%	+5.8	4
1973-05-06	Hvidovre	W 1-0	1342	1369	45.39%	28.78%	25.83%	+3.7	4
1973-05-06	@ Randers	L 0-1	1369	1342	25.83%	28.78%	45.39%	-3.7	6
1973-05-06	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1394	1281	60.37%	26.10%	13.52%	-6.8	4
1973-05-06	@ Vejle BK	W 2-1	1281	1394	13.52%	26.10%	60.37%	+6.8	7
1973-05-13	KB Copenhagen	W 3-2	1356	1319	52.87%	27.94%	19.20%	+2.6	9
1973-05-13	@ Aalborg	L 2-3	1319	1356	19.20%	27.94%	52.87%	-2.6	7
1973-05-13	Koge BK	L 0-2	1288	1311	45.95%	28.75%	25.31%	-10.8	7
1973-05-13	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1311	1288	25.31%	28.75%	45.95%	+10.8	6
1973-05-13	Vejle BK	W 4-1	1336	1387	42.37%	28.91%	28.72%	+9.3	6
1973-05-13	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1387	1336	28.72%	28.91%	42.37%	-9.3	4
1973-05-13	Randers	W 2-1	1351	1345	49.37%	28.44%	22.19%	+3.1	6
1973-05-13	@ B 1901	L 1-2	1345	1351	22.19%	28.44%	49.37%	-3.1	4
1973-05-13	B 1903	W 1-0	1341	1354	47.08%	28.66%	24.26%	+3.5	6
1973-05-13	@ Naestved	L 0-1	1354	1341	24.26%	28.66%	47.08%	-3.5	4
1973-05-15	Frem	D 2-2	1365	1332	52.48%	28.00%	19.51%	-0.7	7
1973-05-15	@ Hvidovre	D 2-2	1332	1365	19.51%	28.00%	52.48%	+0.7	6
1973-05-19	Naestved	D 2-2	1333	1344	47.34%	28.64%	24.02%	-0.5	7
1973-05-19	@ Frem	D 2-2	1344	1333	24.02%	28.64%	47.34%	+0.5	7
1973-05-20	Randers	D 1-1	1277	1342	40.49%	28.93%	30.58%	-0.2	8
1973-05-20	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1342	1277	30.58%	28.93%	40.49%	+0.2	5
1973-05-20	B 1901	L 1-2	1351	1354	48.30%	28.55%	23.15%	-5.7	4
1973-05-20	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1354	1351	23.15%	28.55%	48.30%	+5.7	8
1973-05-20	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1316	1345	45.21%	28.79%	26.00%	-15.5	7
1973-05-20	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1345	1316	26.00%	28.79%	45.21%	+15.5	8
1973-05-20	Aalborg	W 1-0	1322	1358	44.21%	28.84%	26.94%	+3.8	8
1973-05-20	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1358	1322	26.94%	28.84%	44.21%	-3.9	9
1973-05-20	Hvidovre	W 4-1	1377	1365	50.19%	28.34%	21.47%	+7.4	6
1973-05-20	@ Vejle BK	L 1-4	1365	1377	21.47%	28.34%	50.19%	-7.4	7
1973-05-27	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1355	1277	57.08%	27.05%	15.88%	-1.1	10
1973-05-27	@ Aalborg	D 1-1	1277	1355	15.88%	27.05%	57.08%	+1.2	9
1973-05-27	Koge BK	W 3-1	1361	1326	52.68%	27.97%	19.35%	+4.8	10
1973-05-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1326	1361	19.35%	27.97%	52.68%	-4.8	8
1973-05-27	Vejle BK	L 0-4	1345	1385	43.76%	28.86%	27.38%	-19.7	7
1973-05-27	@ Naestved	W 4-0	1385	1345	27.38%	28.86%	43.76%	+19.7	8
1973-05-27	B 1903	D 2-2	1343	1345	48.41%	28.54%	23.05%	-0.5	6
1973-05-27	@ Randers	D 2-2	1345	1343	23.05%	28.54%	48.41%	+0.5	5
1973-05-28	Frem	D 2-2	1360	1332	51.86%	28.10%	20.04%	-0.6	9
1973-05-28	@ B 1901	D 2-2	1332	1360	20.04%	28.10%	51.86%	+0.6	8
1973-05-29	KB Copenhagen	L 2-4	1357	1301	54.94%	27.54%	17.52%	-9.8	7
1973-05-29	@ Hvidovre	W 4-2	1301	1357	17.52%	27.54%	54.94%	+9.8	9
1973-05-31	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-0	1278	1366	37.45%	28.89%	33.65%	+12.4	11
1973-05-31	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1366	1278	33.65%	28.89%	37.45%	-12.4	10
1973-06-02	Koge BK	D 2-2	1333	1321	50.12%	28.35%	21.53%	-0.6	9
1973-06-02	@ Frem	D 2-2	1321	1333	21.53%	28.35%	50.12%	+0.6	9
1973-06-03	Aalborg	D 1-1	1347	1353	48.00%	28.58%	23.42%	-0.7	8
1973-06-03	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1353	1347	23.42%	28.58%	48.00%	+0.6	11
1973-06-03	B 1901	W 5-3	1311	1359	42.68%	28.90%	28.43%	+5.5	11
1973-06-03	@ KB Copenhagen	L 3-5	1359	1311	28.43%	28.90%	42.68%	-5.5	9
1973-06-03	Naestved	W 4-1	1342	1325	50.69%	28.27%	21.04%	+7.3	8
1973-06-03	@ Randers	L 1-4	1325	1342	21.04%	28.27%	50.69%	-7.3	7
1973-06-03	B 1903	W 1-0	1405	1346	55.21%	27.49%	17.31%	+2.7	10
1973-06-03	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1346	1405	17.31%	27.49%	55.21%	-2.7	5
1973-06-10	Koge BK	W 4-1	1407	1321	57.89%	26.84%	15.27%	+5.5	12
1973-06-10	@ Vejle BK	L 1-4	1321	1407	15.27%	26.84%	57.89%	-5.5	9
1973-06-12	Randers	W 5-1	1332	1349	46.67%	28.70%	24.64%	+10.7	11
1973-06-12	@ Frem	L 1-5	1349	1332	24.64%	28.70%	46.67%	-10.7	8
1973-06-13	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1354	1353	48.82%	28.50%	22.68%	-16.5	11
1973-06-13	@ Aalborg	W 3-0	1353	1354	22.68%	28.50%	48.82%	+16.6	12
1973-06-13	Hvidovre	D 2-2	1343	1347	48.25%	28.56%	23.19%	-0.5	6
1973-06-13	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1347	1343	23.19%	28.56%	48.25%	+0.5	9
1973-06-13	B 1901	W 6-2	1318	1354	44.29%	28.84%	26.87%	+9.7	9
1973-06-13	@ Naestved	L 2-6	1354	1318	26.87%	28.84%	44.29%	-9.7	9
1973-06-14	Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1316	1291	51.65%	28.14%	20.22%	-1.0	12
1973-06-14	@ KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1291	1316	20.22%	28.14%	51.65%	+0.9	12
1973-06-17	Frem	L 3-4	1370	1343	51.75%	28.12%	20.13%	-5.6	12
1973-06-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 4-3	1343	1370	20.13%	28.12%	51.75%	+5.5	13
1973-06-17	Aalborg	L 1-3	1344	1338	49.47%	28.43%	22.11%	-10.0	9
1973-06-17	@ B 1901	W 3-1	1338	1344	22.11%	28.43%	49.47%	+10.0	13
1973-06-17	Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1342	1291	54.37%	27.66%	17.97%	+2.8	8
1973-06-17	@ B 1903	L 0-1	1291	1342	17.97%	27.66%	54.37%	-2.8	12
1973-06-17	KB Copenhagen	W 6-1	1316	1315	48.78%	28.50%	22.72%	+12.3	11
1973-06-17	@ Koge BK	L 1-6	1315	1316	22.72%	28.50%	48.78%	-12.3	12
1973-06-17	Hvidovre	W 3-0	1327	1347	46.30%	28.72%	24.97%	+9.9	11
1973-06-17	@ Naestved	L 0-3	1347	1327	24.97%	28.72%	46.30%	-9.9	9
1973-06-17	Vejle BK	W 3-0	1339	1413	39.27%	28.93%	31.81%	+11.9	10
1973-06-17	@ Randers	L 0-3	1413	1339	31.81%	28.93%	39.27%	-11.9	12
1973-08-12	Koge BK	W 3-0	1348	1328	50.94%	28.24%	20.82%	+8.6	15
1973-08-12	@ Aalborg	L 0-3	1328	1348	20.82%	28.24%	50.94%	-8.6	11
1973-08-14	Naestved	D 2-2	1345	1337	49.63%	28.41%	21.96%	-0.5	9
1973-08-14	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1337	1345	21.96%	28.41%	49.63%	+0.5	12
1973-08-15	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1289	1303	47.01%	28.67%	24.32%	-0.6	13
1973-08-15	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1303	1289	24.32%	28.67%	47.01%	+0.6	13
1973-08-15	B 1901	L 1-4	1349	1334	50.40%	28.31%	21.28%	-14.3	13
1973-08-15	@ Frem	W 4-1	1334	1349	21.28%	28.31%	50.40%	+14.3	11
1973-08-15	Randers	W 1-0	1401	1351	54.31%	27.67%	18.02%	+2.8	14
1973-08-15	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1351	1401	18.02%	27.67%	54.31%	-2.8	10
1973-08-16	Hvidovre	L 0-5	1364	1337	51.77%	28.12%	20.12%	-28.0	12
1973-08-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 5-0	1337	1364	20.12%	28.12%	51.77%	+28.0	11
1973-08-19	AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1320	1336	46.72%	28.69%	24.59%	-0.6	12
1973-08-19	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1336	1320	24.59%	28.69%	46.72%	+0.6	13
1973-08-19	Aalborg	W 1-0	1338	1356	46.51%	28.71%	24.78%	+3.6	14
1973-08-19	@ Naestved	L 0-1	1356	1338	24.78%	28.71%	46.51%	-3.6	15
1973-08-20	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1288	1404	33.53%	28.71%	37.76%	-8.5	13
1973-08-20	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1404	1288	37.76%	28.71%	33.53%	+8.5	16
1973-08-23	Hvidovre	L 1-3	1348	1365	46.66%	28.70%	24.64%	-9.5	11
1973-08-23	@ B 1901	W 3-1	1365	1348	24.64%	28.70%	46.66%	+9.5	13
1973-08-23	B 1903	W 1-0	1304	1345	43.64%	28.87%	27.49%	+3.9	15
1973-08-23	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1345	1304	27.49%	28.87%	43.64%	-3.9	9
1973-08-25	Aarhus GF	W 5-2	1334	1280	54.76%	27.58%	17.66%	+5.5	15
1973-08-25	@ Frem	L 2-5	1280	1334	17.66%	27.58%	54.76%	-5.5	13
1973-08-25	Frem	W 3-0	1348	1340	49.65%	28.41%	21.94%	+9.0	12
1973-08-25	@ Randers	L 0-3	1340	1348	21.94%	28.41%	49.65%	-9.0	15
1973-08-26	B 1903	L 0-1	1352	1341	50.08%	28.35%	21.57%	-6.2	15
1973-08-26	@ Aalborg	W 1-0	1341	1352	21.57%	28.35%	50.08%	+6.2	11
1973-08-26	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1337	1307	52.04%	28.08%	19.88%	-12.0	13
1973-08-26	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1307	1337	19.88%	28.08%	52.04%	+12.0	17
1973-08-26	Randers	W 4-0	1375	1357	50.80%	28.26%	20.94%	+11.3	15
1973-08-26	@ Hvidovre	L 0-4	1357	1375	20.94%	28.26%	50.80%	-11.3	12
1973-08-26	B 1901	L 1-2	1319	1339	46.31%	28.72%	24.97%	-5.5	12
1973-08-26	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1339	1319	24.97%	28.72%	46.31%	+5.5	13
1973-08-26	Naestved	D 1-1	1412	1341	56.40%	27.22%	16.39%	-1.1	17
1973-08-26	@ Vejle BK	D 1-1	1341	1412	16.39%	27.22%	56.40%	+1.1	15
1973-09-02	Aalborg	L 1-5	1274	1346	39.54%	28.93%	31.53%	-15.2	13
1973-09-02	@ Aarhus GF	W 5-1	1346	1274	31.53%	28.93%	39.54%	+15.2	17
1973-09-02	Frem	W 2-0	1347	1331	50.58%	28.29%	21.13%	+6.0	13
1973-09-02	@ B 1903	L 0-2	1331	1347	21.13%	28.29%	50.58%	-6.0	15
1973-09-02	Vejle BK	W 3-2	1386	1411	45.69%	28.76%	25.54%	+3.3	17
1973-09-02	@ Hvidovre	L 2-3	1411	1386	25.54%	28.76%	45.69%	-3.3	17
1973-09-02	B 1901	W 3-1	1346	1344	48.85%	28.50%	22.65%	+5.5	14
1973-09-02	@ Randers	L 1-3	1344	1346	22.65%	28.50%	48.85%	-5.5	13
1973-09-03	Naestved	W 4-3	1325	1343	46.55%	28.70%	24.74%	+3.1	15
1973-09-03	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1343	1325	24.74%	28.70%	46.55%	-3.1	15
1973-09-05	Koge BK	L 1-2	1319	1314	49.41%	28.43%	22.16%	-5.8	17
1973-09-05	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1314	1319	22.16%	28.43%	49.41%	+5.8	14
1973-09-16	Randers	L 0-1	1362	1351	49.93%	28.37%	21.70%	-6.2	17
1973-09-16	@ Aalborg	W 1-0	1351	1362	21.70%	28.37%	49.93%	+6.2	16
1973-09-16	Vejle BK	D 5-5	1339	1408	39.97%	28.93%	31.10%	-0.1	14
1973-09-16	@ B 1901	D 5-5	1408	1339	31.10%	28.93%	39.97%	+0.1	18
1973-09-16	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1353	1328	51.59%	28.14%	20.27%	+2.9	15
1973-09-16	@ B 1903	L 1-2	1328	1353	20.27%	28.14%	51.59%	-2.9	15
1973-09-16	Hvidovre	L 3-7	1325	1389	40.54%	28.93%	30.53%	-12.0	15
1973-09-16	@ Frem	W 7-3	1389	1325	30.53%	28.93%	40.54%	+12.0	19
1973-09-16	Aarhus GF	W 4-1	1319	1259	55.34%	27.46%	17.20%	+6.2	16
1973-09-16	@ Koge BK	L 1-4	1259	1319	17.20%	27.46%	55.34%	-6.2	13
1973-09-16	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1339	1314	51.65%	28.14%	20.21%	-0.6	16
1973-09-16	@ Naestved	D 2-2	1314	1339	20.21%	28.14%	51.65%	+0.6	18
1973-09-27	Naestved	W 4-3	1339	1339	48.70%	28.51%	22.79%	+3.0	16
1973-09-27	@ B 1901	L 3-4	1339	1339	22.79%	28.51%	48.70%	-3.0	16
1973-09-30	B 1903	D 1-1	1401	1356	53.82%	27.77%	18.42%	-1.0	20
1973-09-30	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1356	1401	18.42%	27.77%	53.82%	+1.0	16
1973-09-30	Aalborg	W 3-2	1314	1355	43.66%	28.87%	27.48%	+3.5	20
1973-09-30	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1355	1314	27.48%	28.87%	43.66%	-3.5	17
1973-09-30	Frem	W 1-0	1325	1313	50.18%	28.34%	21.48%	+3.2	18
1973-09-30	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1313	1325	21.48%	28.34%	50.18%	-3.2	15
1973-09-30	Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1357	1253	59.63%	26.34%	14.03%	+2.2	18
1973-09-30	@ Randers	L 0-1	1253	1357	14.03%	26.34%	59.63%	-2.2	13
1973-09-30	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1408	1325	57.61%	26.91%	15.48%	-6.6	18
1973-09-30	@ Vejle BK	W 2-1	1325	1408	15.48%	26.91%	57.61%	+6.6	17
1973-10-06	B 1901	D 1-1	1331	1342	47.49%	28.63%	23.88%	-0.6	18
1973-10-06	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1342	1331	23.88%	28.63%	47.49%	+0.6	17
1973-10-07	Frem	D 1-1	1352	1310	53.45%	27.83%	18.71%	-0.9	18
1973-10-07	@ Aalborg	D 1-1	1310	1352	18.71%	27.83%	53.45%	+1.0	16
1973-10-07	Hvidovre	L 0-3	1251	1400	29.10%	28.30%	42.60%	-11.1	13
1973-10-07	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1400	1251	42.60%	28.30%	29.10%	+11.1	22
1973-10-07	Vejle BK	W 3-2	1357	1401	43.20%	28.88%	27.92%	+3.5	18
1973-10-07	@ B 1903	L 2-3	1401	1357	27.92%	28.88%	43.20%	-3.5	18
1973-10-07	Randers	L 0-3	1318	1359	43.59%	28.87%	27.54%	-15.1	20
1973-10-07	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1359	1318	27.54%	28.87%	43.59%	+15.1	20
1973-10-07	Koge BK	W 1-0	1336	1329	49.55%	28.42%	22.03%	+3.3	18
1973-10-07	@ Naestved	L 0-1	1329	1336	22.03%	28.42%	49.55%	-3.3	18
1973-10-20	Naestved	W 2-0	1412	1339	56.57%	27.17%	16.26%	+4.8	24
1973-10-20	@ Hvidovre	L 0-2	1339	1412	16.26%	27.17%	56.57%	-4.8	18
1973-10-21	Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1331	1240	58.40%	26.70%	14.90%	-10.3	18
1973-10-21	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 4-2	1240	1331	14.90%	26.70%	58.40%	+10.3	15
1973-10-21	B 1903	W 3-1	1342	1360	46.54%	28.70%	24.75%	+5.9	19
1973-10-21	@ B 1901	L 1-3	1360	1342	24.75%	28.70%	46.54%	-5.9	18
1973-10-21	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1311	1303	49.61%	28.41%	21.98%	-0.5	17
1973-10-21	@ Frem	D 2-2	1303	1311	21.98%	28.41%	49.61%	+0.5	21
1973-10-21	Koge BK	D 1-1	1374	1325	54.17%	27.70%	18.13%	-1.0	21
1973-10-21	@ Randers	D 1-1	1325	1374	18.13%	27.70%	54.17%	+1.0	19
1973-10-21	Aalborg	W 3-0	1398	1351	53.94%	27.74%	18.31%	+7.7	20
1973-10-21	@ Vejle BK	L 0-3	1351	1398	18.31%	27.74%	53.94%	-7.7	18
1973-10-27	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1310	1321	47.45%	28.63%	23.92%	+3.3	19
1973-10-27	@ Frem	L 1-2	1321	1310	23.92%	28.63%	47.45%	-3.3	18
1973-10-28	B 1901	D 3-3	1343	1348	48.12%	28.57%	23.31%	-0.4	19
1973-10-28	@ Aalborg	D 3-3	1348	1343	23.31%	28.57%	48.12%	+0.4	20
1973-10-28	B 1903	D 1-1	1250	1354	35.05%	28.80%	36.15%	+0.0	16
1973-10-28	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1354	1250	36.15%	28.80%	35.05%	-0.0	19
1973-10-28	Hvidovre	W 4-3	1303	1416	33.88%	28.73%	37.39%	+4.2	23
1973-10-28	@ KB Copenhagen	L 3-4	1416	1303	37.39%	28.73%	33.88%	-4.2	24
1973-10-28	Vejle BK	W 1-0	1326	1405	38.58%	28.92%	32.50%	+4.4	21
1973-10-28	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1405	1326	32.50%	28.92%	38.58%	-4.4	20
1973-10-28	Randers	L 1-3	1334	1373	43.90%	28.86%	27.24%	-9.0	18
1973-10-28	@ Naestved	W 3-1	1373	1334	27.24%	28.86%	43.90%	+9.0	23
1973-11-03	Koge BK	W 4-0	1412	1331	57.44%	26.95%	15.60%	+8.7	26
1973-11-03	@ Hvidovre	L 0-4	1331	1412	15.60%	26.95%	57.44%	-8.7	21
1973-11-03	Frem	D 2-2	1325	1313	50.11%	28.35%	21.54%	-0.6	19
1973-11-03	@ Naestved	D 2-2	1313	1325	21.54%	28.35%	50.11%	+0.6	20
1973-11-04	Aalborg	D 2-2	1317	1343	45.61%	28.77%	25.62%	-0.4	19
1973-11-04	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1343	1317	25.62%	28.77%	45.61%	+0.4	20
1973-11-04	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1349	1250	59.10%	26.49%	14.40%	-1.3	21
1973-11-04	@ B 1901	D 1-1	1250	1349	14.40%	26.49%	59.10%	+1.2	17
1973-11-04	Randers	D 1-1	1354	1382	45.30%	28.79%	25.91%	-0.5	20
1973-11-04	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1382	1354	25.91%	28.79%	45.30%	+0.5	24
1973-11-04	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1401	1308	58.61%	26.64%	14.75%	-1.2	21
1973-11-04	@ Vejle BK	D 1-1	1308	1401	14.75%	26.64%	58.61%	+1.2	24
1973-11-11	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1343	1421	38.79%	28.92%	32.30%	-0.2	21
1973-11-11	@ Aalborg	D 1-1	1421	1343	32.30%	28.92%	38.79%	+0.2	27
1973-11-11	Naestved	L 0-1	1251	1325	39.34%	28.93%	31.73%	-5.1	17
1973-11-11	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1325	1251	31.73%	28.93%	39.34%	+5.1	21
1973-11-11	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1347	1309	53.05%	27.91%	19.04%	-10.6	21
1973-11-11	@ B 1901	W 3-1	1309	1347	19.04%	27.91%	53.05%	+10.6	26
1973-11-11	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1314	1400	37.64%	28.90%	33.46%	-9.2	20
1973-11-11	@ Frem	W 2-0	1400	1314	33.46%	28.90%	37.64%	+9.2	23
1973-11-11	B 1903	W 2-1	1322	1354	44.82%	28.81%	26.37%	+3.6	23
1973-11-11	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1354	1322	26.37%	28.81%	44.82%	-3.6	20
1973-11-11	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1383	1317	55.93%	27.32%	16.74%	+4.9	26
1973-11-11	@ Randers	L 0-2	1317	1383	16.74%	27.32%	55.93%	-4.9	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1973-05-06	13.52%	Aarhus GF	1281	2	@ Vejle BK	1394	1
2	1973-10-21	14.90%	Aarhus GF	1240	4	@ AB Gladsaxe	1331	2
3	1973-09-30	15.48%	AB Gladsaxe	1325	2	@ Vejle BK	1408	1
4	1973-04-22	16.12%	Aarhus GF	1275	3	@ Naestved	1349	1
5	1973-04-08	17.35%	Koge BK	1309	2	@ B 1903	1367	0
6	1973-05-29	17.52%	KB Copenhagen	1301	4	@ Hvidovre	1357	2
7	1973-05-06	18.24%	KB Copenhagen	1313	2	@ B 1903	1361	1
8	1973-11-11	19.04%	KB Copenhagen	1309	3	@ B 1901	1347	1
9	1973-08-26	19.88%	KB Copenhagen	1307	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1337	0
10	1973-08-16	20.12%	Hvidovre	1337	5	@ AB Gladsaxe	1364	0
11	1973-06-17	20.13%	Frem	1343	4	@ AB Gladsaxe	1370	3
12	1973-08-15	21.28%	B 1901	1334	4	@ Frem	1349	1
13	1973-08-26	21.57%	B 1903	1341	1	@ Aalborg	1352	0
14	1973-09-16	21.70%	Randers	1351	1	@ Aalborg	1362	0
15	1973-06-17	22.11%	Aalborg	1338	3	@ B 1901	1344	1
16	1973-09-05	22.16%	Koge BK	1314	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1319	1
17	1973-06-13	22.68%	AB Gladsaxe	1353	3	@ Aalborg	1354	0
18	1973-05-20	23.15%	B 1901	1354	2	@ B 1903	1351	1
19	1973-04-14	24.56%	B 1903	1355	1	@ Frem	1338	0
20	1973-08-23	24.64%	Hvidovre	1365	3	@ B 1901	1348	1
21	1973-05-06	24.76%	Naestved	1335	1	@ Koge BK	1317	0
22	1973-08-26	24.97%	B 1901	1339	2	@ Koge BK	1319	1
23	1973-05-13	25.31%	Koge BK	1311	2	@ Aarhus GF	1288	0
24	1973-04-08	25.32%	Frem	1333	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1310	1
25	1973-05-20	26.00%	AB Gladsaxe	1345	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1316	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1973-08-16	28.02	Hvidovre	5	1337	20.12%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1364	51.77%	28.12%
2	1973-05-27	19.73	Vejle BK	4	1385	27.38%	@ Naestved	0	1345	43.76%	28.86%
3	1973-06-13	16.55	AB Gladsaxe	3	1353	22.68%	@ Aalborg	0	1354	48.82%	28.50%
4	1973-05-20	15.51	AB Gladsaxe	3	1345	26.00%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1316	45.21%	28.79%
5	1973-09-02	15.17	Aalborg	5	1346	31.53%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1274	39.54%	28.93%
6	1973-10-07	15.06	Randers	3	1359	27.54%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1318	43.59%	28.87%
7	1973-08-15	14.34	B 1901	4	1334	21.28%	@ Frem	1	1349	50.40%	28.31%
8	1973-04-08	12.67	Koge BK	2	1309	17.35%	@ B 1903	0	1367	55.16%	27.50%
9	1973-05-31	12.39	@ Aarhus GF	3	1278	37.45%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1366	33.65%	28.89%
10	1973-06-17	12.30	@ Koge BK	6	1316	48.78%	KB Copenhagen	1	1315	22.72%	28.50%
11	1973-08-26	12.04	KB Copenhagen	2	1307	19.88%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1337	52.04%	28.08%
12	1973-09-16	11.99	Hvidovre	7	1389	30.53%	@ Frem	3	1325	40.54%	28.93%
13	1973-06-17	11.90	@ Randers	3	1339	39.27%	Vejle BK	0	1413	31.81%	28.93%
14	1973-08-26	11.28	@ Hvidovre	4	1375	50.80%	Randers	0	1357	20.94%	28.26%
15	1973-04-22	11.25	Aarhus GF	3	1275	16.12%	@ Naestved	1	1349	56.75%	27.13%
16	1973-10-07	11.07	Hvidovre	3	1400	42.60%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1251	29.10%	28.30%
17	1973-05-13	10.83	Koge BK	2	1311	25.31%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1288	45.95%	28.75%
18	1973-06-12	10.71	@ Frem	5	1332	46.67%	Randers	1	1349	24.64%	28.70%
19	1973-11-11	10.61	KB Copenhagen	3	1309	19.04%	@ B 1901	1	1347	53.05%	27.91%
20	1973-10-21	10.32	Aarhus GF	4	1240	14.90%	@ AB Gladsaxe	2	1331	58.40%	26.70%
21	1973-06-17	9.97	Aalborg	3	1338	22.11%	@ B 1901	1	1344	49.47%	28.43%
22	1973-06-17	9.94	@ Naestved	3	1327	46.30%	Hvidovre	0	1347	24.97%	28.72%
23	1973-05-29	9.78	KB Copenhagen	4	1301	17.52%	@ Hvidovre	2	1357	54.94%	27.54%
24	1973-06-13	9.71	@ Naestved	6	1318	44.29%	B 1901	2	1354	26.87%	28.84%
25	1973-08-23	9.50	Hvidovre	3	1365	24.64%	@ B 1901	1	1348	46.66%	28.70%