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1974 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

KB Copenhagen

33 points · 6th Title

Last Title: 1968

Relegated

Hvidovre

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KB Copenhagen

8.74 points above expected

33 points · 24.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hvidovre

7.46 points below expected

13 points · 20.46 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KB Copenhagen Champion 22 15 3 4 33 48 24 +24 24.26 +8.74
2 Vejle BK 22 11 3 8 25 47 35 +12 22.33 +2.67
3 B 1903 22 9 6 7 24 37 28 +9 22.86 +1.14
4 Holbaek B&I 22 9 6 7 24 33 30 +3 22.27 +1.73
5 B 1901 22 9 5 8 23 40 38 +2 21.59 +1.41
6 Randers 22 8 7 7 23 34 36 -2 23.25 -0.25
7 Frem 22 10 2 10 22 37 36 +1 21.46 +0.54
8 Naestved 22 8 5 9 21 40 38 +2 21.32 -0.32
9 Koge BK 22 7 6 9 20 31 42 -11 21.36 -1.36
10 Aalborg 22 6 7 9 19 35 41 -6 20.76 -1.76
11 Slagelse B&I 22 6 5 11 17 29 38 -9 22.08 -5.08
12 Hvidovre Relegated 22 4 5 13 13 24 49 -25 20.46 -7.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1445 33 24.26 +8.74 99.5% 11 18 22 24 27 30 37
Vejle BK 1411 25 22.33 +2.67 79.9% 6 16 20 22 25 28 35
Holbaek B&I 1380 24 22.27 +1.73 72.5% 8 16 20 22 25 28 36
B 1901 1374 23 21.59 +1.41 69.2% 7 15 19 22 24 28 35
B 1903 1360 24 22.86 +1.14 66.7% 8 17 20 23 25 29 37
Frem 1360 22 21.46 +0.54 60.8% 9 15 19 21 24 28 35
Naestved 1350 21 21.32 -0.32 52.0% 8 15 19 21 24 28 33
Aalborg 1324 19 20.76 -1.76 37.0% 7 15 18 21 23 27 36
Randers 1323 23 23.25 -0.25 52.9% 10 17 21 23 26 29 37
Slagelse B&I 1308 17 22.08 -5.08 10.7% 9 16 20 22 25 28 35
Koge BK 1280 20 21.36 -1.36 41.1% 7 15 19 21 24 28 36
Hvidovre 1257 13 20.46 -7.46 3.0% 7 14 18 20 23 27 33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL B1 B1 FRE HB HVI KC KB NAE RAN SB VB
Aalborg —
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.54
0-2-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.49
1-1-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.60
B 1901
1-0-1
2.85
 —
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
2.78
1-1-0
2.81
1-1-0
2.49
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.82
B 1903
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.01
 —
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.09
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
2.76
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.57
Frem
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
2.54
 —
0-1-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.82
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.65
Holbaek B&I
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.83
 —
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.92
Hvidovre
0-2-0
2.74
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.72
0-0-2
2.48
 —
0-1-1
2.18
0-0-2
2.66
1-0-1
2.62
1-1-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.67
KB Copenhagen
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.91
1-1-0
3.36
 —
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
3.08
Koge BK
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
2.87
0-0-2
2.51
 —
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
2.59
Naestved
1-1-0
2.83
0-1-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.42
1-1-0
2.84
 —
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.41
Randers
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
2.89
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.96
 —
1-0-1
2.95
0-2-0
3.06
Slagelse B&I
0-1-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.87
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.87
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.57
 —
0-0-2
2.55
Vejle BK
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
3.11
0-2-0
2.47
2-0-0
2.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +5.9
Allowed 0.79 -6.5
Differential 0.91 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%5.68%4.17%2.65%3.03%1.14%23.48%
15.68%7.58%7.58%3.79%1.52%1.14%27.27%
24.17%7.58%6.82%3.41%2.65%1.14%25.76%
32.65%3.79%3.41%1.52%0.76%—12.12%
43.03%1.52%2.65%0.76%——7.95%
5+1.14%1.14%1.14%———3.41%
Total23.48%27.27%25.76%12.12%7.95%3.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.65 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.06
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
14.55%18.18%9.09%——4.55%36.36%
2——9.09%9.09%9.09%—27.27%
34.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%27.27%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.86 -0.27
SD 1.01 1.36 1.64
CV 0.63 0.73 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
29.09%9.09%9.09%——4.55%31.82%
3—4.55%—4.55%4.55%—13.64%
44.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%27.27%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.73 +0.09
SD 1.30 1.52 2.00
CV 0.71 0.88 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
2—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
3——4.55%———4.55%
413.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.27 +0.41
SD 1.67 1.03 2.02
CV 0.99 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—27.27%
29.09%———9.09%—18.18%
3—13.64%————13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total31.82%27.27%13.64%4.55%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.64 +0.05
SD 1.59 1.65 2.61
CV 0.94 1.01 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—27.27%
19.09%9.09%9.09%—4.55%—31.82%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
3———————
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.36 +0.14
SD 1.50 1.26 1.96
CV 1.00 0.92 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%—31.82%
14.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
2—9.09%13.64%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%18.18%40.91%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.23 -1.14
SD 0.92 1.38 1.67
CV 0.84 0.62 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
113.64%13.64%—4.55%——31.82%
213.64%9.09%—4.55%—4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total40.91%31.82%13.64%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.09 +1.09
SD 1.37 1.31 2.00
CV 0.63 1.20 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%——9.09%4.55%31.82%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
24.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%4.55%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.91 -0.50
SD 1.26 1.66 2.41
CV 0.89 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
14.55%9.09%27.27%———40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%——9.09%——13.64%
4——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
5+———————
Total13.64%22.73%45.45%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.73 +0.09
SD 1.22 1.03 1.38
CV 0.67 0.60 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
19.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
2—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total27.27%22.73%27.27%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.64 -0.09
SD 1.65 1.47 2.33
CV 1.07 0.90 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%——36.36%
24.55%9.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%—40.91%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%13.64%36.36%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.73 -0.41
SD 0.84 1.35 1.50
CV 0.64 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—27.27%
1———4.55%——4.55%
2—13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
44.55%—9.09%———13.64%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%27.27%9.09%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.59 +0.55
SD 1.78 1.37 2.46
CV 0.83 0.86 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KB Copenhagen 33 24.26 +8.74
2 Vejle BK 25 22.33 +2.67
3 Holbaek B&I 24 22.27 +1.73
4 B 1901 23 21.59 +1.41
5 B 1903 24 22.86 +1.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hvidovre 13 20.46 -7.46
2 Slagelse B&I 17 22.08 -5.08
3 Aalborg 19 20.76 -1.76
4 Koge BK 20 21.36 -1.36
5 Naestved 21 21.32 -0.32

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vejle BK 5 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 73
2 KB Copenhagen 5 Aug 18 – Sep 15 1 in 60
3 Naestved 2 Apr 21 – Apr 28 1 in 28
4 B 1903 3 Mar 31 – Apr 14 1 in 16
5 B 1901 3 Sep 8 – Sep 23 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slagelse B&I 5 Aug 19 – Sep 15 1 in 154
2 Aalborg 3 Apr 21 – May 5 1 in 44
3 Naestved 3 Mar 31 – Apr 15 1 in 32
4 Randers 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 23
5 Hvidovre 3 May 19 – May 29 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Naestved 7 Apr 21 – May 29 1 in 54
2 B 1901 7 May 5 – Aug 19 1 in 38
3 Frem 5 Apr 7 – May 5 1 in 24
4 B 1903 6 Mar 31 – May 5 1 in 19
5 KB Copenhagen 7 May 30 – Sep 15 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slagelse B&I 10 Aug 19 – Oct 27 1 in 93
2 Randers 7 Apr 7 – May 19 1 in 46
3 Naestved 7 May 26 – Sep 8 1 in 37
4 Koge BK 6 Apr 21 – May 26 1 in 24
5 Holbaek B&I 5 Apr 7 – May 5 1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KB Copenhagen23.16%15.13%12.22%9.90%8.14%7.46%6.16%5.28%4.01%3.72%2.85%1.97%
Vejle BK10.09%9.86%8.96%9.60%9.15%9.01%8.08%7.94%8.10%7.00%6.49%5.72%
B 190311.79%11.34%10.75%9.98%8.67%8.87%7.93%7.90%7.07%6.25%5.22%4.23%
Holbaek B&I8.21%9.01%9.45%9.33%9.17%9.07%8.66%8.37%8.03%7.62%6.75%6.33%
B 19015.92%7.43%7.83%8.50%8.36%8.67%9.12%9.03%8.78%8.81%8.92%8.63%
Randers12.05%11.62%10.35%9.94%9.52%8.47%8.54%7.22%6.77%6.28%5.05%4.19%
Frem5.40%7.07%7.43%7.99%8.58%8.84%8.51%8.95%9.39%9.34%9.64%8.86%
Naestved5.21%6.54%8.04%7.62%8.09%8.51%8.52%9.12%9.10%9.38%10.36%9.51%
Koge BK5.24%5.71%6.88%6.95%7.71%8.23%8.70%8.78%9.70%10.03%10.79%11.28%
Aalborg3.66%4.71%5.63%6.63%7.07%7.50%8.89%9.26%9.98%10.67%12.19%13.81%
Slagelse B&I6.59%7.40%8.17%8.20%8.94%8.73%8.71%9.28%8.69%8.86%8.62%7.81%
Hvidovre2.68%4.18%4.29%5.36%6.60%6.64%8.18%8.87%10.38%12.04%13.12%17.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.76%
Strong Edge
51.52%22.73%25.76%
Elo Value
Home Edge
151 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
091.55400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.61+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.5
Wide Open
124612
Champion Preseason Odds
23%
KB Copenhagen, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6 * Wild Swing: 6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.69 * Close: 2.69 to 4.03 * Off: 4.03 to 5.38 * Way Off: 5.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.82 * A Surprise: 0.82 to 1.32 * Several Surprises: 1.32 to 1.81 * Many Surprises: 1.81 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.84 points
Some Luck
03.759
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
03.368
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.51%
KB Copenhagen
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.02%
Hvidovre
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.04
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Clear Edge
50%74%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.22
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.40
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.25
Overconfident
0.02618631.001.97381
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1060.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 98.03% 1.97%
Randers 95.81% 4.19%
B 1903 95.77% 4.23%
Vejle BK 94.28% 5.72%
Holbaek B&I 93.67% 6.33%
Slagelse B&I 92.19% 7.81%
B 1901 91.37% 8.63%
Frem 91.14% 8.86%
Naestved 90.49% 9.51%
Koge BK 88.72% 11.28%
Aalborg 86.19% 13.81%
Hvidovre 82.34% 17.66%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1974-03-30 Randers L 0-4 1333 1354 52.97% 23.89% 23.14% -32.2 0
1974-03-30 @ Frem W 4-0 1354 1333 23.14% 23.89% 52.97% +32.2 2
1974-03-31 Hvidovre D 2-2 1343 1362 53.12% 23.88% 23.00% -0.9 1
1974-03-31 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1362 1343 23.00% 23.88% 53.12% +0.9 1
1974-03-31 B 1901 W 2-0 1337 1341 54.78% 23.78% 21.44% +8.1 2
1974-03-31 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1341 1337 21.44% 23.78% 54.78% -8.1 0
1974-03-31 Vejle BK W 3-2 1338 1359 52.97% 23.89% 23.14% +4.1 2
1974-03-31 @ Koge BK L 2-3 1359 1338 23.14% 23.89% 52.97% -4.1 0
1974-03-31 Holbaek B&I L 0-1 1339 1360 52.99% 23.89% 23.13% -9.0 0
1974-03-31 @ Naestved W 1-0 1360 1339 23.13% 23.89% 52.99% +9.0 2
1974-03-31 B 1903 L 2-3 1360 1344 56.86% 23.61% 19.53% -8.6 0
1974-03-31 @ Slagelse B&I W 3-2 1344 1360 19.53% 23.61% 56.86% +8.6 2
1974-04-07 Aalborg W 2-1 1333 1342 54.29% 23.81% 21.90% +4.1 2
1974-04-07 @ B 1901 L 1-2 1342 1333 21.90% 23.81% 54.29% -4.1 1
1974-04-07 Naestved W 2-1 1353 1330 57.58% 23.55% 18.88% +3.7 4
1974-04-07 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1330 1353 18.88% 23.55% 57.58% -3.6 0
1974-04-07 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1369 1345 57.72% 23.53% 18.75% -8.7 2
1974-04-07 @ Holbaek B&I W 3-2 1345 1369 18.75% 23.53% 57.72% +8.7 4
1974-04-07 Frem L 1-3 1363 1301 61.26% 23.11% 15.63% -16.9 1
1974-04-07 @ Hvidovre W 3-1 1301 1363 15.63% 23.11% 61.26% +16.9 2
1974-04-07 Koge BK D 1-1 1386 1342 59.59% 23.33% 17.09% -1.7 3
1974-04-07 @ Randers D 1-1 1342 1386 17.09% 23.33% 59.59% +1.7 3
1974-04-07 Slagelse B&I W 4-2 1355 1351 55.62% 23.72% 20.66% +6.1 2
1974-04-07 @ Vejle BK L 2-4 1351 1355 20.66% 23.72% 55.62% -6.1 0
1974-04-14 Vejle BK W 4-0 1357 1361 54.77% 23.78% 21.45% +15.5 6
1974-04-14 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1361 1357 21.45% 23.78% 54.77% -15.5 2
1974-04-14 Randers W 1-0 1345 1384 50.87% 23.99% 25.14% +4.9 2
1974-04-14 @ Slagelse B&I L 0-1 1384 1345 25.14% 23.99% 50.87% -4.9 3
1974-04-15 Holbaek B&I W 3-0 1338 1360 52.76% 23.90% 23.34% +12.7 3
1974-04-15 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1360 1338 23.34% 23.90% 52.76% -12.7 2
1974-04-15 B 1901 W 5-2 1318 1337 53.13% 23.88% 22.98% +9.2 4
1974-04-15 @ Frem L 2-5 1337 1318 22.98% 23.88% 53.13% -9.2 2
1974-04-15 Hvidovre W 2-0 1344 1346 55.03% 23.76% 21.21% +8.1 5
1974-04-15 @ Koge BK L 0-2 1346 1344 21.21% 23.76% 55.03% -8.1 1
1974-04-15 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1327 1354 52.28% 23.92% 23.80% -8.4 0
1974-04-15 @ Naestved W 2-1 1354 1327 23.80% 23.92% 52.28% +8.4 6
1974-04-21 Koge BK D 0-0 1328 1352 52.59% 23.91% 23.51% -1.2 3
1974-04-21 @ B 1901 D 0-0 1352 1328 23.51% 23.91% 52.59% +1.2 6
1974-04-21 Frem D 0-0 1348 1327 57.38% 23.57% 19.06% -1.7 3
1974-04-21 @ Holbaek B&I D 0-0 1327 1348 19.06% 23.57% 57.38% +1.7 5
1974-04-21 Slagelse B&I W 3-2 1338 1350 53.93% 23.83% 22.24% +4.0 3
1974-04-21 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1350 1338 22.24% 23.83% 53.93% -4.0 2
1974-04-21 Aalborg W 4-2 1362 1350 56.46% 23.65% 19.89% +5.9 8
1974-04-21 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1350 1362 19.89% 23.65% 56.46% -5.9 3
1974-04-21 B 1903 D 0-0 1379 1372 56.01% 23.69% 20.31% -1.6 4
1974-04-21 @ Randers D 0-0 1372 1379 20.31% 23.69% 56.01% +1.5 7
1974-04-21 Naestved L 3-4 1346 1318 58.03% 23.50% 18.46% -8.6 2
1974-04-21 @ Vejle BK W 4-3 1318 1346 18.46% 23.50% 58.03% +8.6 2
1974-04-28 Naestved L 2-4 1344 1327 57.06% 23.60% 19.35% -14.1 3
1974-04-28 @ Aalborg W 4-2 1327 1344 19.35% 23.60% 57.06% +14.1 4
1974-04-28 Hvidovre W 4-0 1374 1342 58.45% 23.46% 18.09% +13.4 9
1974-04-28 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1342 1374 18.09% 23.46% 58.45% -13.4 3
1974-04-28 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1328 1368 50.83% 23.99% 25.18% -1.0 6
1974-04-28 @ Frem D 1-1 1368 1328 25.18% 23.99% 50.83% +1.0 9
1974-04-28 Holbaek B&I D 2-2 1353 1346 56.02% 23.68% 20.29% -1.0 7
1974-04-28 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1346 1353 20.29% 23.68% 56.02% +1.0 4
1974-04-28 B 1901 W 1-0 1346 1327 57.26% 23.58% 19.16% +3.9 4
1974-04-28 @ Slagelse B&I L 0-1 1327 1346 19.16% 23.58% 57.26% -3.9 3
1974-04-28 Randers D 0-0 1337 1378 50.67% 23.99% 25.34% -1.1 3
1974-04-28 @ Vejle BK D 0-0 1378 1337 25.34% 23.99% 50.67% +1.1 5
1974-05-05 Frem L 0-1 1330 1328 55.54% 23.72% 20.74% -9.4 3
1974-05-05 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1328 1330 20.74% 23.72% 55.54% +9.4 8
1974-05-05 B 1903 D 1-1 1323 1387 47.80% 24.07% 28.13% -0.7 4
1974-05-05 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1387 1323 28.13% 24.07% 47.80% +0.7 10
1974-05-05 Slagelse B&I D 0-0 1347 1350 54.90% 23.77% 21.33% -1.4 5
1974-05-05 @ Holbaek B&I D 0-0 1350 1347 21.33% 23.77% 54.90% +1.4 5
1974-05-05 Vejle BK W 1-0 1329 1336 54.45% 23.80% 21.75% +4.4 5
1974-05-05 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1336 1329 21.75% 23.80% 54.45% -4.4 3
1974-05-05 Koge BK W 1-0 1369 1352 56.95% 23.60% 19.44% +4.0 11
1974-05-05 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1352 1369 19.44% 23.60% 56.95% -4.0 7
1974-05-05 Randers D 3-3 1341 1379 51.00% 23.98% 25.02% -0.6 5
1974-05-05 @ Naestved D 3-3 1379 1341 25.02% 23.98% 51.00% +0.6 6
1974-05-12 Holbaek B&I L 0-2 1388 1346 59.46% 23.34% 17.20% -18.9 10
1974-05-12 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1346 1388 17.20% 23.34% 59.46% +18.9 7
1974-05-12 Naestved L 1-2 1337 1340 54.89% 23.77% 21.34% -8.8 8
1974-05-12 @ Frem W 2-1 1340 1337 21.34% 23.77% 54.89% +8.8 7
1974-05-12 Aalborg D 2-2 1348 1321 58.04% 23.50% 18.46% -1.2 8
1974-05-12 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1321 1348 18.46% 23.50% 58.04% +1.1 4
1974-05-12 Hvidovre D 2-2 1380 1333 59.85% 23.30% 16.85% -1.3 7
1974-05-12 @ Randers D 2-2 1333 1380 16.85% 23.30% 59.85% +1.3 6
1974-05-12 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1352 1373 52.93% 23.89% 23.18% +8.7 7
1974-05-12 @ Slagelse B&I L 0-2 1373 1352 23.18% 23.89% 52.93% -8.7 11
1974-05-12 B 1901 D 2-2 1332 1322 56.26% 23.67% 20.08% -1.1 4
1974-05-12 @ Vejle BK D 2-2 1322 1332 20.08% 23.67% 56.26% +1.0 5
1974-05-19 Slagelse B&I D 1-1 1322 1360 50.97% 23.98% 25.05% -1.0 5
1974-05-19 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1360 1322 25.05% 23.98% 50.97% +1.0 8
1974-05-19 Randers D 2-2 1323 1378 48.93% 24.05% 27.02% -0.6 6
1974-05-19 @ B 1901 D 2-2 1378 1323 27.02% 24.05% 48.93% +0.6 8
1974-05-19 Koge BK W 3-1 1328 1347 53.17% 23.88% 22.95% +7.5 10
1974-05-19 @ Frem L 1-3 1347 1328 22.95% 23.88% 53.17% -7.5 8
1974-05-19 Vejle BK L 1-2 1364 1331 58.66% 23.43% 17.91% -9.3 7
1974-05-19 @ Holbaek B&I W 2-1 1331 1364 17.91% 23.43% 58.66% +9.4 6
1974-05-19 B 1903 W 3-1 1364 1369 54.74% 23.78% 21.48% +7.1 13
1974-05-19 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1369 1364 21.48% 23.78% 54.74% -7.1 10
1974-05-19 Hvidovre W 3-0 1349 1334 56.78% 23.62% 19.60% +11.0 9
1974-05-19 @ Naestved L 0-3 1334 1349 19.60% 23.62% 56.78% -11.0 6
1974-05-26 Aalborg W 2-1 1362 1321 59.31% 23.36% 17.33% +3.4 12
1974-05-26 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1321 1362 17.33% 23.36% 59.31% -3.4 5
1974-05-26 B 1901 L 0-2 1323 1322 55.34% 23.74% 20.92% -17.7 6
1974-05-26 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1322 1323 20.92% 23.74% 55.34% +17.7 8
1974-05-26 Naestved D 1-1 1340 1360 53.03% 23.89% 23.09% -1.1 9
1974-05-26 @ Koge BK D 1-1 1360 1340 23.09% 23.89% 53.03% +1.1 10
1974-05-26 Holbaek B&I W 1-0 1379 1355 57.68% 23.54% 18.78% +3.9 10
1974-05-26 @ Randers L 0-1 1355 1379 18.78% 23.54% 57.68% -3.8 7
1974-05-26 Frem W 3-0 1361 1336 57.86% 23.52% 18.62% +10.5 10
1974-05-26 @ Slagelse B&I L 0-3 1336 1361 18.62% 23.52% 57.86% -10.5 10
1974-05-26 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1340 1371 51.79% 23.95% 24.27% +7.8 8
1974-05-26 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1371 1340 24.27% 23.95% 51.79% -7.8 13
1974-05-29 Vejle BK W 3-1 1318 1348 51.92% 23.94% 24.14% +7.8 7
1974-05-29 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1348 1318 24.14% 23.94% 51.92% -7.8 8
1974-05-29 B 1903 W 1-0 1325 1365 50.76% 23.99% 25.25% +4.9 12
1974-05-29 @ Frem L 0-1 1365 1325 25.25% 23.99% 50.76% -5.0 12
1974-05-29 Hvidovre W 1-0 1351 1306 59.76% 23.31% 16.93% +3.5 9
1974-05-29 @ Holbaek B&I L 0-1 1306 1351 16.93% 23.31% 59.76% -3.5 6
1974-05-29 B 1901 D 3-3 1361 1340 57.41% 23.56% 19.03% -0.9 11
1974-05-29 @ Naestved D 3-3 1340 1361 19.03% 23.56% 57.41% +0.9 9
1974-05-30 Randers W 3-0 1363 1383 53.13% 23.88% 22.98% +12.5 15
1974-05-30 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1383 1363 22.98% 23.88% 53.13% -12.5 10
1974-05-30 Slagelse B&I W 3-1 1339 1372 51.56% 23.96% 24.48% +7.9 11
1974-05-30 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1372 1339 24.48% 23.96% 51.56% -7.9 10
1974-06-09 Koge BK W 4-1 1360 1346 56.67% 23.63% 19.70% +9.3 14
1974-06-09 @ B 1903 L 1-4 1346 1360 19.70% 23.63% 56.67% -9.3 11
1974-06-09 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1302 1376 46.60% 24.09% 29.30% -0.6 7
1974-06-09 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1376 1302 29.30% 24.09% 46.60% +0.6 16
1974-06-09 Aalborg W 5-1 1370 1325 59.69% 23.32% 17.00% +10.5 12
1974-06-09 @ Randers L 1-5 1325 1370 17.00% 23.32% 59.69% -10.5 7
1974-06-09 Naestved W 2-1 1364 1360 55.63% 23.72% 20.66% +3.9 12
1974-06-09 @ Slagelse B&I L 1-2 1360 1364 20.66% 23.72% 55.63% -4.0 11
1974-06-09 Frem L 0-2 1340 1330 56.28% 23.66% 20.06% -18.0 8
1974-06-09 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1330 1340 20.06% 23.66% 56.28% +18.0 14
1974-06-10 Holbaek B&I W 4-1 1341 1355 53.76% 23.84% 22.39% +10.4 11
1974-06-10 @ B 1901 L 1-4 1355 1341 22.39% 23.84% 53.76% -10.3 9
1974-08-18 Koge BK W 2-1 1344 1337 56.00% 23.69% 20.31% +3.9 11
1974-08-18 @ Holbaek B&I L 1-2 1337 1344 20.31% 23.69% 56.00% -3.9 11
1974-08-18 B 1903 D 2-2 1301 1370 47.34% 24.08% 28.58% -0.5 8
1974-08-18 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1370 1301 28.58% 24.08% 47.34% +0.5 15
1974-08-18 Frem W 5-0 1377 1348 58.14% 23.49% 18.37% +16.7 18
1974-08-18 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-5 1348 1377 18.37% 23.49% 58.14% -16.7 14
1974-08-18 Aalborg D 1-1 1356 1315 59.37% 23.35% 17.27% -1.7 12
1974-08-18 @ Naestved D 1-1 1315 1356 17.27% 23.35% 59.37% +1.7 8
1974-08-18 Vejle BK D 0-0 1381 1322 60.96% 23.15% 15.89% -2.0 13
1974-08-18 @ Randers D 0-0 1322 1381 15.89% 23.15% 60.96% +2.0 9
1974-08-19 Slagelse B&I W 3-1 1351 1368 53.46% 23.86% 22.68% +7.4 13
1974-08-19 @ B 1901 L 1-3 1368 1351 22.68% 23.86% 53.46% -7.4 12
1974-08-25 B 1901 W 4-3 1370 1359 56.42% 23.65% 19.93% +3.5 17
1974-08-25 @ B 1903 L 3-4 1359 1370 19.93% 23.65% 56.42% -3.5 13
1974-08-25 Aalborg L 0-1 1331 1317 56.78% 23.62% 19.60% -9.6 14
1974-08-25 @ Frem W 1-0 1317 1331 19.60% 23.62% 56.78% +9.6 10
1974-08-25 KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1333 1393 48.35% 24.06% 27.59% -29.7 11
1974-08-25 @ Koge BK W 4-0 1393 1333 27.59% 24.06% 48.35% +29.7 20
1974-08-25 Naestved W 2-1 1379 1355 57.71% 23.53% 18.76% +3.6 15
1974-08-25 @ Randers L 1-2 1355 1379 18.76% 23.53% 57.71% -3.6 12
1974-08-25 Holbaek B&I L 1-2 1360 1348 56.51% 23.64% 19.85% -9.0 12
1974-08-25 @ Slagelse B&I W 2-1 1348 1360 19.85% 23.64% 56.51% +9.0 13
1974-08-25 Hvidovre W 3-2 1324 1301 57.61% 23.54% 18.85% +3.5 11
1974-08-25 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1301 1324 18.85% 23.54% 57.61% -3.5 8
1974-09-01 Koge BK L 2-3 1326 1304 57.56% 23.55% 18.89% -8.7 10
1974-09-01 @ Aalborg W 3-2 1304 1326 18.89% 23.55% 57.56% +8.7 13
1974-09-01 Vejle BK L 1-2 1355 1328 58.07% 23.50% 18.43% -9.2 13
1974-09-01 @ B 1901 W 2-1 1328 1355 18.43% 23.50% 58.07% +9.2 13
1974-09-01 B 1903 D 0-0 1357 1374 53.48% 23.86% 22.66% -1.3 14
1974-09-01 @ Holbaek B&I D 0-0 1374 1357 22.66% 23.86% 53.48% +1.3 18
1974-09-01 Randers W 2-1 1298 1382 45.17% 24.10% 30.72% +5.5 10
1974-09-01 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1382 1298 30.72% 24.10% 45.17% -5.4 15
1974-09-01 Slagelse B&I W 1-0 1423 1351 62.07% 22.99% 14.94% +3.1 22
1974-09-01 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1351 1423 14.94% 22.99% 62.07% -3.1 12
1974-09-01 Frem L 0-2 1351 1322 58.21% 23.48% 18.30% -18.5 12
1974-09-01 @ Naestved W 2-0 1322 1351 18.30% 23.48% 58.21% +18.5 16
1974-09-08 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1375 1426 49.42% 24.03% 26.54% -8.5 18
1974-09-08 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1426 1375 26.54% 24.03% 49.42% +8.5 24
1974-09-08 Naestved W 2-1 1303 1332 51.99% 23.94% 24.07% +4.5 12
1974-09-08 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1332 1303 24.07% 23.94% 51.99% -4.5 12
1974-09-08 Frem W 4-1 1312 1340 52.16% 23.93% 23.91% +10.9 15
1974-09-08 @ Koge BK L 1-4 1340 1312 23.91% 23.93% 52.16% -10.9 16
1974-09-08 B 1901 L 0-2 1377 1346 58.38% 23.46% 18.16% -18.6 15
1974-09-08 @ Randers W 2-0 1346 1377 18.16% 23.46% 58.38% +18.6 15
1974-09-08 Aalborg L 2-3 1348 1317 58.36% 23.47% 18.17% -8.8 12
1974-09-08 @ Slagelse B&I W 3-2 1317 1348 18.17% 23.47% 58.36% +8.8 12
1974-09-08 Holbaek B&I W 4-0 1337 1356 53.15% 23.88% 22.97% +16.4 15
1974-09-08 @ Vejle BK L 0-4 1356 1337 22.97% 23.88% 53.15% -16.4 14
1974-09-15 B 1903 D 1-1 1326 1366 50.75% 23.99% 25.26% -1.0 13
1974-09-15 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1366 1326 25.26% 23.99% 50.75% +1.0 19
1974-09-15 Hvidovre W 2-1 1365 1307 60.82% 23.17% 16.02% +3.2 17
1974-09-15 @ B 1901 L 1-2 1307 1365 16.02% 23.17% 60.82% -3.2 12
1974-09-15 Slagelse B&I W 3-1 1329 1339 54.16% 23.82% 22.02% +7.2 18
1974-09-15 @ Frem L 1-3 1339 1329 22.02% 23.82% 54.16% -7.2 12
1974-09-15 Randers W 4-1 1340 1358 53.21% 23.88% 22.91% +10.5 16
1974-09-15 @ Holbaek B&I L 1-4 1358 1340 22.91% 23.88% 53.21% -10.5 15
1974-09-15 Vejle BK W 2-0 1434 1353 62.91% 22.85% 14.24% +5.7 26
1974-09-15 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1353 1434 14.24% 22.85% 62.91% -5.7 15
1974-09-15 Koge BK W 1-0 1328 1323 55.74% 23.71% 20.55% +4.2 14
1974-09-15 @ Naestved L 0-1 1323 1328 20.55% 23.71% 55.74% -4.2 15
1974-09-22 Frem W 4-2 1367 1337 58.36% 23.47% 18.17% +5.5 21
1974-09-22 @ B 1903 L 2-4 1337 1367 18.17% 23.47% 58.36% -5.5 18
1974-09-22 Holbaek B&I L 2-5 1304 1350 50.06% 24.01% 25.92% -17.1 12
1974-09-22 @ Hvidovre W 5-2 1350 1304 25.92% 24.01% 50.06% +17.1 18
1974-09-22 KB Copenhagen W 5-2 1348 1440 44.18% 24.11% 31.72% +11.9 17
1974-09-22 @ Randers L 2-5 1440 1348 31.72% 24.11% 44.18% -11.9 26
1974-09-22 Koge BK D 2-2 1332 1319 56.61% 23.63% 19.75% -1.1 13
1974-09-22 @ Slagelse B&I D 2-2 1319 1332 19.75% 23.63% 56.61% +1.1 16
1974-09-22 Aalborg W 3-0 1347 1325 57.51% 23.55% 18.94% +10.6 17
1974-09-22 @ Vejle BK L 0-3 1325 1347 18.94% 23.55% 57.51% -10.6 13
1974-09-23 Naestved W 4-2 1368 1332 58.83% 23.42% 17.76% +5.4 19
1974-09-23 @ B 1901 L 2-4 1332 1368 17.76% 23.42% 58.83% -5.4 14
1974-09-29 Randers L 2-3 1315 1360 50.18% 24.01% 25.81% -7.7 13
1974-09-29 @ Aalborg W 3-2 1360 1315 25.81% 24.01% 50.18% +7.7 19
1974-09-29 Vejle BK L 2-4 1331 1358 52.28% 23.92% 23.80% -13.0 18
1974-09-29 @ Frem W 4-2 1358 1331 23.80% 23.92% 52.28% +13.0 19
1974-09-29 B 1901 W 5-1 1367 1373 54.62% 23.79% 21.59% +13.0 20
1974-09-29 @ Holbaek B&I L 1-5 1373 1367 21.59% 23.79% 54.62% -13.0 19
1974-09-29 Hvidovre W 5-1 1428 1287 67.45% 21.90% 10.65% +6.8 28
1974-09-29 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1287 1428 10.65% 21.90% 67.45% -6.8 12
1974-09-29 B 1903 W 3-0 1320 1373 49.24% 24.04% 26.72% +14.2 18
1974-09-29 @ Koge BK L 0-3 1373 1320 26.72% 24.04% 49.24% -14.2 21
1974-09-29 Slagelse B&I D 2-2 1327 1331 54.78% 23.78% 21.45% -1.0 15
1974-09-29 @ Naestved D 2-2 1331 1327 21.45% 23.78% 54.78% +0.9 14
1974-10-06 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1360 1435 46.45% 24.09% 29.45% -15.1 19
1974-10-06 @ B 1901 W 2-0 1435 1360 29.45% 24.09% 46.45% +15.1 30
1974-10-06 Slagelse B&I D 0-0 1359 1332 57.95% 23.51% 18.54% -1.7 22
1974-10-06 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1332 1359 18.54% 23.51% 57.95% +1.7 15
1974-10-06 Naestved L 1-2 1380 1326 60.57% 23.20% 16.23% -9.6 20
1974-10-06 @ Holbaek B&I W 2-1 1326 1380 16.23% 23.20% 60.57% +9.6 17
1974-10-06 Aalborg D 0-0 1280 1307 52.31% 23.92% 23.77% -1.2 13
1974-10-06 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1307 1280 23.77% 23.92% 52.31% +1.2 14
1974-10-06 Frem L 0-5 1367 1318 60.09% 23.27% 16.64% -44.7 19
1974-10-06 @ Randers W 5-0 1318 1367 16.64% 23.27% 60.09% +44.7 20
1974-10-06 Koge BK W 7-0 1371 1334 58.94% 23.40% 17.66% +22.2 21
1974-10-06 @ Vejle BK L 0-7 1334 1371 17.66% 23.40% 58.94% -22.1 18
1974-10-19 B 1903 W 2-0 1335 1357 52.90% 23.89% 23.21% +8.7 19
1974-10-19 @ Naestved L 0-2 1357 1335 23.21% 23.89% 52.90% -8.7 22
1974-10-20 B 1901 W 3-1 1308 1345 51.14% 23.98% 24.88% +8.0 16
1974-10-20 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1345 1308 24.88% 23.98% 51.14% -8.0 19
1974-10-20 Hvidovre W 4-0 1363 1279 63.10% 22.82% 14.09% +10.7 22
1974-10-20 @ Frem L 0-4 1279 1363 14.09% 22.82% 63.10% -10.7 13
1974-10-20 Holbaek B&I D 1-1 1450 1371 62.76% 22.88% 14.36% -2.0 31
1974-10-20 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1371 1450 14.36% 22.88% 62.76% +2.0 21
1974-10-20 Randers L 0-1 1312 1323 54.13% 23.82% 22.05% -9.2 18
1974-10-20 @ Koge BK W 1-0 1323 1312 22.05% 23.82% 54.13% +9.2 21
1974-10-20 Vejle BK L 0-3 1334 1393 48.42% 24.06% 27.52% -22.7 15
1974-10-20 @ Slagelse B&I W 3-0 1393 1334 27.52% 24.06% 48.42% +22.8 23
1974-10-27 Frem W 1-0 1337 1374 51.18% 23.97% 24.85% +4.9 21
1974-10-27 @ B 1901 L 0-1 1374 1337 24.85% 23.97% 51.18% -4.9 22
1974-10-27 Aalborg D 1-1 1373 1316 60.74% 23.18% 16.08% -1.8 22
1974-10-27 @ Holbaek B&I D 1-1 1316 1373 16.08% 23.18% 60.74% +1.8 17
1974-10-27 Koge BK L 1-2 1269 1303 51.41% 23.96% 24.63% -8.3 13
1974-10-27 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1303 1269 24.63% 23.96% 51.41% +8.3 20
1974-10-27 Naestved W 2-1 1448 1344 64.73% 22.51% 12.75% +2.6 33
1974-10-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1344 1448 12.75% 22.51% 64.73% -2.6 19
1974-10-27 Slagelse B&I W 3-1 1332 1311 57.37% 23.57% 19.07% +6.4 23
1974-10-27 @ Randers L 1-3 1311 1332 19.07% 23.57% 57.37% -6.4 15
1974-10-27 B 1903 W 2-1 1416 1348 61.75% 23.04% 15.22% +3.0 25
1974-10-27 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1348 1416 15.22% 23.04% 61.75% -3.0 22
1974-11-03 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1318 1451 38.63% 24.03% 37.34% +6.0 19
1974-11-03 @ Aalborg L 2-3 1451 1318 37.34% 24.03% 38.63% -6.0 33
1974-11-03 Randers W 4-0 1345 1338 55.99% 23.69% 20.32% +14.8 24
1974-11-03 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1338 1345 20.32% 23.69% 55.99% -14.8 23
1974-11-03 Holbaek B&I L 1-2 1369 1371 55.02% 23.76% 21.22% -8.8 22
1974-11-03 @ Frem W 2-1 1371 1369 21.22% 23.76% 55.02% +8.8 24
1974-11-03 B 1901 L 0-4 1311 1342 51.85% 23.94% 24.21% -31.6 20
1974-11-03 @ Koge BK W 4-0 1342 1311 24.21% 23.94% 51.85% +31.6 23
1974-11-03 Vejle BK W 4-2 1342 1419 46.14% 24.10% 29.76% +8.2 21
1974-11-03 @ Naestved L 2-4 1419 1342 29.76% 24.10% 46.14% -8.2 25
1974-11-03 Hvidovre W 2-1 1305 1260 59.66% 23.32% 17.02% +3.3 17
1974-11-03 @ Slagelse B&I L 1-2 1260 1305 17.02% 23.32% 59.66% -3.3 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1974-04-07 15.63% Frem 1301 3 @ Hvidovre 1363 1
2 1974-10-06 16.23% Naestved 1326 2 @ Holbaek B&I 1380 1
3 1974-10-06 16.64% Frem 1318 5 @ Randers 1367 0
4 1974-05-12 17.20% Holbaek B&I 1346 2 @ B 1903 1388 0
5 1974-05-19 17.91% Vejle BK 1331 2 @ Holbaek B&I 1364 1
6 1974-09-08 18.16% B 1901 1346 2 @ Randers 1377 0
7 1974-09-08 18.17% Aalborg 1317 3 @ Slagelse B&I 1348 2
8 1974-09-01 18.30% Frem 1322 2 @ Naestved 1351 0
9 1974-09-01 18.43% Vejle BK 1328 2 @ B 1901 1355 1
10 1974-04-21 18.46% Naestved 1318 4 @ Vejle BK 1346 3
11 1974-04-07 18.75% KB Copenhagen 1345 3 @ Holbaek B&I 1369 2
12 1974-09-01 18.89% Koge BK 1304 3 @ Aalborg 1326 2
13 1974-04-28 19.35% Naestved 1327 4 @ Aalborg 1344 2
14 1974-03-31 19.53% B 1903 1344 3 @ Slagelse B&I 1360 2
15 1974-08-25 19.60% Aalborg 1317 1 @ Frem 1331 0
16 1974-08-25 19.85% Holbaek B&I 1348 2 @ Slagelse B&I 1360 1
17 1974-06-09 20.06% Frem 1330 2 @ Vejle BK 1340 0
18 1974-05-05 20.74% Frem 1328 1 @ Aalborg 1330 0
19 1974-05-26 20.92% B 1901 1322 2 @ Hvidovre 1323 0
20 1974-11-03 21.22% Holbaek B&I 1371 2 @ Frem 1369 1
21 1974-05-12 21.34% Naestved 1340 2 @ Frem 1337 1
22 1974-10-20 22.05% Randers 1323 1 @ Koge BK 1312 0
23 1974-03-31 23.13% Holbaek B&I 1360 1 @ Naestved 1339 0
24 1974-03-30 23.14% Randers 1354 4 @ Frem 1333 0
25 1974-04-15 23.80% KB Copenhagen 1354 2 @ Naestved 1327 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1974-10-06 44.72 Frem 5 1318 16.64% @ Randers 0 1367 60.09% 23.27%
2 1974-03-30 32.21 Randers 4 1354 23.14% @ Frem 0 1333 52.97% 23.89%
3 1974-11-03 31.58 B 1901 4 1342 24.21% @ Koge BK 0 1311 51.85% 23.94%
4 1974-08-25 29.68 KB Copenhagen 4 1393 27.59% @ Koge BK 0 1333 48.35% 24.06%
5 1974-10-20 22.75 Vejle BK 3 1393 27.52% @ Slagelse B&I 0 1334 48.42% 24.06%
6 1974-10-06 22.15 @ Vejle BK 7 1371 58.94% Koge BK 0 1334 17.66% 23.40%
7 1974-05-12 18.92 Holbaek B&I 2 1346 17.20% @ B 1903 0 1388 59.46% 23.34%
8 1974-09-08 18.60 B 1901 2 1346 18.16% @ Randers 0 1377 58.38% 23.46%
9 1974-09-01 18.55 Frem 2 1322 18.30% @ Naestved 0 1351 58.21% 23.48%
10 1974-06-09 17.96 Frem 2 1330 20.06% @ Vejle BK 0 1340 56.28% 23.66%
11 1974-05-26 17.68 B 1901 2 1322 20.92% @ Hvidovre 0 1323 55.34% 23.74%
12 1974-09-22 17.11 Holbaek B&I 5 1350 25.92% @ Hvidovre 2 1304 50.06% 24.01%
13 1974-04-07 16.87 Frem 3 1301 15.63% @ Hvidovre 1 1363 61.26% 23.11%
14 1974-08-18 16.68 @ KB Copenhagen 5 1377 58.14% Frem 0 1348 18.37% 23.49%
15 1974-09-08 16.37 @ Vejle BK 4 1337 53.15% Holbaek B&I 0 1356 22.97% 23.88%
16 1974-04-14 15.46 @ B 1903 4 1357 54.77% Vejle BK 0 1361 21.45% 23.78%
17 1974-10-06 15.11 KB Copenhagen 2 1435 29.45% @ B 1901 0 1360 46.45% 24.09%
18 1974-11-03 14.77 @ B 1903 4 1345 55.99% Randers 0 1338 20.32% 23.69%
19 1974-09-29 14.19 @ Koge BK 3 1320 49.24% B 1903 0 1373 26.72% 24.04%
20 1974-04-28 14.10 Naestved 4 1327 19.35% @ Aalborg 2 1344 57.06% 23.60%
21 1974-04-28 13.36 @ B 1903 4 1374 58.45% Hvidovre 0 1342 18.09% 23.46%
22 1974-09-29 12.99 Vejle BK 4 1358 23.80% @ Frem 2 1331 52.28% 23.92%
23 1974-09-29 12.96 @ Holbaek B&I 5 1367 54.62% B 1901 1 1373 21.59% 23.79%
24 1974-04-15 12.70 @ Aalborg 3 1338 52.76% Holbaek B&I 0 1360 23.34% 23.90%
25 1974-05-30 12.54 @ KB Copenhagen 3 1363 53.13% Randers 0 1383 22.98% 23.88%