1972 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Vejle BK

33 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1971

Relegated

B 1909

15 pts

Bronshoj · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Aarhus GF

9.03 points above expected

21 points · 11.97 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KB Copenhagen

5.06 points below expected

17 points · 22.06 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Vejle BK Champion	22	16	1	5	33	65	33	+32	27.95	+5.05
2	B 1903	22	11	5	6	27	43	32	+11	26.55	+0.45
3	Naestved	22	9	8	5	26	43	41	+2	23.68	+2.32
4	B 1901	22	11	1	10	23	52	39	+13	24.51	-1.51
5	Randers	22	10	3	9	23	39	35	+4	22.67	+0.33
6	Hvidovre	22	10	2	10	22	33	31	+2	21.68	+0.32
7	Frem	22	9	3	10	21	45	47	-2	22.88	-1.88
8	Aarhus GF	22	8	5	9	21	28	40	-12	11.97	+9.03
9	Koge BK	22	6	8	8	20	30	37	-7	20.46	-0.46
10	KB Copenhagen	22	6	5	11	17	26	39	-13	22.06	-5.06
11	Bronshoj Relegated	22	6	4	12	16	29	49	-20	19.60	-3.60
12	B 1909 Relegated	22	5	5	12	15	35	45	-10	19.99	-4.99

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Vejle BK	1522	33	27.95	+5.05	92.6%	12	22	25	28	31	34	41
B 1903	1451	27	26.55	+0.45	59.4%	12	20	24	27	29	33	40
B 1901	1429	23	24.51	-1.51	39.5%	7	18	22	25	27	31	38
Hvidovre	1426	22	21.68	+0.32	57.8%	7	15	19	22	24	28	35
Naestved	1414	26	23.68	+2.32	75.5%	8	17	21	24	26	30	38
Randers	1408	23	22.67	+0.33	58.1%	6	16	20	23	25	29	41
Frem	1367	21	22.88	-1.88	36.8%	10	16	20	23	26	29	38
B 1909	1333	15	19.99	-4.99	13.5%	7	13	17	20	23	27	35
KB Copenhagen	1314	17	22.06	-5.06	12.9%	8	16	19	22	25	29	38
Koge BK	1312	20	20.46	-0.46	50.9%	5	14	18	20	23	27	34
Bronshoj	1279	16	19.60	-3.60	21.7%	7	13	17	20	22	26	34
Aarhus GF	1224	21	11.97	+9.03	99.4%	0	6	9	12	14	18	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	B1	B1	B1	BRO	FRE	HVI	KC	KB	NAE	RAN	VB
Aarhus GF	—	0-0-2 1.26	0-1-1 1.27	1-1-0 1.71	1-0-1 1.58	2-0-0 1.37	0-1-1 1.58	2-0-0 1.56	1-0-1 1.67	1-1-0 1.36	0-1-1 1.43	0-0-2 1.02
B 1901	2-0-0 4.36	—	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 3.33	2-0-0 3.32	1-1-0 3.03	1-0-1 3.28	1-0-1 3.29	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 3.05	0-0-2 3.10	1-0-1 2.20
B 1903	1-1-0 4.35	2-0-0 3.05	—	2-0-0 3.67	1-1-0 3.70	0-0-2 3.30	1-1-0 3.50	0-0-2 3.49	1-0-1 3.67	1-1-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.24	1-0-1 2.49
B 1909	0-1-1 3.89	1-0-1 2.27	0-0-2 1.93	—	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.56	1-1-0 2.40	0-2-0 2.83	0-1-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 1.77
Bronshoj	1-0-1 4.04	0-0-2 2.29	0-1-1 1.91	1-0-1 2.62	—	1-0-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.39	0-2-0 2.88	0-1-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.32	0-0-2 1.70
Frem	0-0-2 4.24	0-1-1 2.57	2-0-0 2.30	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-1 3.28	—	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.78	2-0-0 2.89	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.30
Hvidovre	1-1-0 4.03	1-0-1 2.32	0-1-1 2.11	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.69	—	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.54	1-0-1 2.51	1-0-1 2.16
KB Copenhagen	0-0-2 4.06	1-0-1 2.31	2-0-0 2.11	0-1-1 3.20	1-0-1 3.21	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.58	—	0-1-1 3.13	0-1-1 2.61	0-1-1 2.65	0-0-2 2.22
Koge BK	1-0-1 3.94	1-0-1 2.44	1-0-1 1.93	0-2-0 2.77	0-2-0 2.71	0-0-2 2.71	1-0-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.47	—	0-2-0 2.23	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 1.66
Naestved	0-1-1 4.26	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.37	1-1-0 2.86	2-0-0 3.06	1-1-0 2.99	0-2-0 3.38	—	2-0-0 2.89	0-0-2 2.37
Randers	1-1-0 4.19	2-0-0 2.50	0-1-1 2.36	1-0-1 3.15	1-0-1 3.29	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 3.09	1-1-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 2.71	—	1-0-1 1.95
Vejle BK	2-0-0 4.61	1-0-1 3.40	1-0-1 3.11	2-0-0 3.84	2-0-0 3.91	1-0-1 3.30	1-0-1 3.45	2-0-0 3.38	1-1-0 3.95	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 3.65	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.65	+3.6
Allowed	0.40	-5.5
Differential	0.83	+3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.79%	8.33%	1.14%	1.52%	1.14%	0.76%	16.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	9.47%	5.68%	2.65%	2.27%	36.74%
2	1.14%	9.47%	4.55%	1.89%	2.27%	1.14%	20.45%
3	1.52%	5.68%	1.89%	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	13.64%
4	1.14%	2.65%	2.27%	0.76%	—	—	6.82%
5+	0.76%	2.27%	1.14%	1.52%	—	—	5.68%
Total	16.67%	36.74%	20.45%	13.64%	6.82%	5.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.77	+0.00
SD	1.46	1.46	2.03
CV	0.82	0.82	—
Max	7	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	54.55%
2	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	31.82%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.82	-0.55
SD	0.88	1.53	1.77
CV	0.69	0.84	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	9.09%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	13.64%	40.91%	22.73%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.77	+0.59
SD	1.79	1.57	2.32
CV	0.76	0.89	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	27.27%	22.73%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.45	+0.50
SD	1.25	1.47	1.85
CV	0.64	1.01	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	4.55%	40.91%	18.18%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	2.05	-0.45
SD	1.74	1.29	1.90
CV	1.09	0.63	—
Max	7	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	13.64%	4.55%	—	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	59.09%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	2.23	-0.91
SD	1.32	1.82	2.22
CV	1.00	0.82	—
Max	6	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
1	—	4.55%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.14	-0.09
SD	1.33	1.52	2.18
CV	0.65	0.71	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
3	—	22.73%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	59.09%	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.41	+0.09
SD	1.37	1.33	2.09
CV	0.91	0.95	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	45.45%	22.73%	—	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.77	-0.59
SD	1.10	1.60	1.59
CV	0.93	0.90	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	31.82%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.68	-0.32
SD	1.29	1.25	1.64
CV	0.95	0.74	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	9.09%	—	13.64%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	31.82%	22.73%	27.27%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.86	+0.09
SD	1.25	1.39	1.57
CV	0.64	0.75	—
Max	5	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.73%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	54.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.59	+0.18
SD	1.54	1.40	1.87
CV	0.87	0.88	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
Total	22.73%	36.36%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.95	1.50	+1.45
SD	1.68	1.34	2.50
CV	0.57	0.89	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aarhus GF	21	11.97	+9.03
2	Vejle BK	33	27.95	+5.05
3	Naestved	26	23.68	+2.32
4	B 1903	27	26.55	+0.45
5	Randers	23	22.67	+0.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KB Copenhagen	17	22.06	-5.06
2	B 1909	15	19.99	-4.99
3	Bronshoj	16	19.60	-3.60
4	Frem	21	22.88	-1.88
5	B 1901	23	24.51	-1.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vejle BK	10	Jun 18 – Oct 29	1 in 319
2	Aarhus GF	2	Oct 8 – Oct 15	1 in 29
3	B 1903	4	May 28 – Jun 20	1 in 21
4	Frem	3	Apr 30 – May 15	1 in 15
5	Hvidovre	3	Jun 3 – Jun 15	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	6	Jun 18 – Oct 1	1 in 211
2	Hvidovre	6	Apr 8 – May 10	1 in 159
3	KB Copenhagen	3	Apr 23 – May 8	1 in 67
4	B 1901	3	Oct 22 – Nov 5	1 in 39
5	B 1909	3	Apr 30 – May 15	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	7	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 892
2	Naestved	7	Aug 21 – Oct 22	1 in 34
3	Koge BK	5	Apr 3 – Apr 30	1 in 23
4	Bronshoj	5	Apr 22 – May 23	1 in 21
5	B 1903	8	May 28 – Sep 24	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	10	Jun 18 – Oct 29	1 in 82
2	B 1909	8	Apr 30 – Jun 19	1 in 49
3	KB Copenhagen	5	Apr 15 – May 14	1 in 21
4	B 1901	4	Oct 15 – Nov 5	1 in 20
5	Naestved	6	Jun 4 – Sep 17	1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Vejle BK	40.72%	20.72%	13.38%	8.69%	5.82%	4.06%	2.74%	1.72%	1.12%	0.68%	0.30%	0.05%
B 1903	22.49%	21.41%	16.00%	11.70%	8.65%	6.63%	5.00%	3.30%	2.40%	1.53%	0.80%	0.09%
Naestved	7.41%	10.34%	11.62%	12.11%	11.94%	11.47%	10.33%	8.06%	6.66%	5.71%	3.57%	0.78%
B 1901	10.73%	14.11%	14.79%	12.92%	11.55%	10.00%	7.06%	6.90%	5.60%	3.80%	2.17%	0.37%
Randers	4.55%	7.65%	9.52%	11.03%	11.32%	11.00%	11.14%	10.23%	9.11%	7.41%	6.00%	1.04%
Hvidovre	2.44%	5.51%	6.98%	9.14%	10.27%	10.73%	12.25%	11.69%	10.51%	10.02%	8.52%	1.94%
Frem	4.96%	7.75%	9.54%	10.72%	11.27%	11.42%	10.84%	10.25%	9.37%	7.51%	5.43%	0.94%
Aarhus GF	0.01%	—	0.02%	0.09%	0.08%	0.30%	0.53%	1.00%	2.24%	4.64%	14.27%	76.82%
Koge BK	1.41%	2.94%	4.19%	6.08%	7.56%	8.93%	9.95%	12.16%	14.56%	14.49%	13.93%	3.80%
KB Copenhagen	3.25%	5.38%	7.21%	8.67%	9.74%	10.14%	11.18%	11.62%	11.24%	10.98%	8.36%	2.23%
Bronshoj	0.86%	1.87%	3.04%	4.03%	5.22%	7.01%	9.11%	11.24%	13.66%	16.66%	20.20%	7.10%
B 1909	1.17%	2.32%	3.71%	4.82%	6.58%	8.31%	9.87%	11.83%	13.53%	16.57%	16.45%	4.84%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+11.36%

Slight Edge

46.21%18.94%34.85%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 39.65 Elo pts.

233 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.24 goals

Neutral

-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.2

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

41%

Vejle BK, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.27/gm

Tight Race

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.17 * Some Luck: 3.17 to 4.76 * Lucky: 4.76 to 6.35 * Wild Swing: 6.35 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.8 * Close: 1.8 to 2.69 * Off: 2.69 to 3.59 * Way Off: 3.59 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.82 * A Surprise: 0.82 to 1.31 * Several Surprises: 1.31 to 1.8 * Many Surprises: 1.8 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.90 points

Some Luck

03.9710

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

Pinpoint

02.255

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.38%

Aarhus GF

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

12.94%

KB Copenhagen

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.12

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.08

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

66%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

85%

Strong Edge

50%84%100%

Close Games

Expected

60%

Very Frequent

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.30

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.05

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.65

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

35%

Upset-Prone

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Shaky Favorites

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.27

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.51

Overconfident

0.364071.001.63593

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.112

Well Within Noise

00.1410.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Vejle BK	99.65%	0.35%
B 1903	99.11%	0.89%
B 1901	97.46%	2.54%
Naestved	95.65%	4.35%
Frem	93.63%	6.37%
Randers	92.96%	7.04%
Hvidovre	89.54%	10.46%
KB Copenhagen	89.41%	10.59%
Koge BK	82.27%	17.73%
B 1909	78.71%	21.29%
Bronshoj	72.70%	27.30%
Aarhus GF	8.91%	91.09%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1972-03-30	Vejle BK	W 3-1	1391	1421	44.15%	20.09%	35.76%	+11.9	2
1972-03-30	@ Frem	L 1-3	1421	1391	35.76%	20.09%	44.15%	-12.0	0
1972-04-02	B 1909	W 3-1	1402	1382	50.77%	20.01%	29.22%	+10.1	2
1972-04-02	@ Hvidovre	L 1-3	1382	1402	29.22%	20.01%	50.77%	-10.1	0
1972-04-03	Randers	D 2-2	1176	1382	21.85%	19.51%	58.65%	+1.2	1
1972-04-03	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1382	1176	58.65%	19.51%	21.85%	-1.2	1
1972-04-03	B 1903	L 0-1	1381	1418	43.13%	20.09%	36.78%	-8.5	0
1972-04-03	@ B 1901	W 1-0	1418	1381	36.78%	20.09%	43.13%	+8.5	2
1972-04-03	Naestved	D 2-2	1368	1408	42.74%	20.09%	37.17%	-0.2	1
1972-04-03	@ Bronshoj	D 2-2	1408	1368	37.17%	20.09%	42.74%	+0.2	1
1972-04-03	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1353	1397	42.13%	20.09%	37.78%	-0.2	1
1972-04-03	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1397	1353	37.78%	20.09%	42.13%	+0.2	1
1972-04-08	Hvidovre	W 1-0	1397	1412	46.19%	20.07%	33.73%	+7.0	3
1972-04-08	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1412	1397	33.73%	20.07%	46.19%	-7.0	2
1972-04-09	Frem	W 2-1	1372	1403	43.97%	20.09%	35.95%	+6.9	2
1972-04-09	@ B 1909	L 1-2	1403	1372	35.95%	20.09%	43.97%	-6.9	2
1972-04-09	Koge BK	L 1-2	1427	1353	57.09%	19.81%	23.10%	-10.3	2
1972-04-09	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1353	1427	23.10%	19.81%	57.09%	+10.3	3
1972-04-09	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1408	1177	70.52%	18.60%	10.88%	-2.8	2
1972-04-09	@ Naestved	D 1-1	1177	1408	10.88%	18.60%	70.52%	+2.8	2
1972-04-09	B 1901	W 2-1	1381	1373	49.22%	20.04%	30.74%	+6.1	3
1972-04-09	@ Randers	L 1-2	1373	1381	30.74%	20.04%	49.22%	-6.1	0
1972-04-09	Bronshoj	W 5-0	1409	1368	53.31%	19.95%	26.74%	+25.3	2
1972-04-09	@ Vejle BK	L 0-5	1368	1409	26.74%	19.95%	53.31%	-25.3	1
1972-04-15	KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1396	1404	47.03%	20.07%	32.90%	-0.7	3
1972-04-15	@ Frem	D 0-0	1404	1396	32.90%	20.07%	47.03%	+0.7	4
1972-04-16	B 1903	L 0-3	1180	1417	18.99%	19.28%	61.73%	-11.6	2
1972-04-16	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1417	1180	61.73%	19.28%	18.99%	+11.6	4
1972-04-16	B 1909	W 1-0	1367	1379	46.57%	20.07%	33.35%	+6.9	2
1972-04-16	@ B 1901	L 0-1	1379	1367	33.35%	20.07%	46.57%	-6.9	2
1972-04-16	Randers	L 1-4	1342	1387	42.05%	20.09%	37.86%	-19.2	1
1972-04-16	@ Bronshoj	W 4-1	1387	1342	37.86%	20.09%	42.05%	+19.2	5
1972-04-16	Vejle BK	L 1-6	1405	1434	44.29%	20.09%	35.62%	-31.8	2
1972-04-16	@ Hvidovre	W 6-1	1434	1405	35.62%	20.09%	44.29%	+31.8	4
1972-04-16	Naestved	D 3-3	1363	1405	42.47%	20.09%	37.45%	-0.1	4
1972-04-16	@ Koge BK	D 3-3	1405	1363	37.45%	20.09%	42.47%	+0.1	3
1972-04-22	Bronshoj	D 0-0	1428	1323	60.33%	19.65%	20.02%	-2.0	5
1972-04-22	@ B 1903	D 0-0	1323	1428	20.02%	19.65%	60.33%	+2.0	2
1972-04-23	Randers	W 5-2	1372	1406	43.49%	20.09%	36.43%	+14.8	4
1972-04-23	@ B 1909	L 2-5	1406	1372	36.43%	20.09%	43.49%	-14.8	5
1972-04-23	B 1901	L 1-4	1395	1374	50.93%	20.01%	29.06%	-22.7	3
1972-04-23	@ Frem	W 4-1	1374	1395	29.06%	20.01%	50.93%	+22.7	4
1972-04-23	Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1405	1168	70.91%	18.54%	10.55%	-13.5	4
1972-04-23	@ KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1168	1405	10.55%	18.54%	70.91%	+13.5	4
1972-04-23	Hvidovre	W 1-0	1405	1374	52.17%	19.98%	27.85%	+5.9	5
1972-04-23	@ Naestved	L 0-1	1374	1405	27.85%	19.98%	52.17%	-5.9	2
1972-04-23	Koge BK	D 2-2	1466	1363	60.09%	19.66%	20.25%	-1.3	5
1972-04-23	@ Vejle BK	D 2-2	1363	1466	20.25%	19.66%	60.09%	+1.3	5
1972-04-30	Vejle BK	L 1-2	1182	1464	15.27%	18.88%	65.85%	-3.3	4
1972-04-30	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1464	1182	65.85%	18.88%	15.27%	+3.3	7
1972-04-30	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1325	1392	38.96%	20.07%	40.97%	+8.2	4
1972-04-30	@ Bronshoj	L 0-1	1392	1325	40.97%	20.07%	38.96%	-8.2	4
1972-04-30	Frem	L 1-2	1368	1373	47.51%	20.06%	32.43%	-8.7	2
1972-04-30	@ Hvidovre	W 2-1	1373	1368	32.43%	20.06%	47.51%	+8.7	5
1972-04-30	B 1901	W 4-3	1364	1396	43.85%	20.09%	36.07%	+6.4	7
1972-04-30	@ Koge BK	L 3-4	1396	1364	36.07%	20.09%	43.85%	-6.4	4
1972-04-30	B 1909	W 1-0	1411	1387	51.29%	20.00%	28.71%	+6.1	7
1972-04-30	@ Naestved	L 0-1	1387	1411	28.71%	20.00%	51.29%	-6.1	4
1972-04-30	B 1903	L 0-1	1391	1426	43.46%	20.09%	36.45%	-8.6	5
1972-04-30	@ Randers	W 1-0	1426	1391	36.45%	20.09%	43.46%	+8.6	7
1972-05-07	Aarhus GF	W 6-2	1390	1179	69.22%	18.80%	11.99%	+7.0	6
1972-05-07	@ B 1901	L 2-6	1179	1390	11.99%	18.80%	69.22%	-7.0	4
1972-05-07	Bronshoj	L 0-3	1381	1333	54.05%	19.93%	26.02%	-28.4	4
1972-05-07	@ B 1909	W 3-0	1333	1381	26.02%	19.93%	54.05%	+28.4	6
1972-05-07	Hvidovre	W 4-0	1435	1359	57.29%	19.80%	22.91%	+18.0	9
1972-05-07	@ B 1903	L 0-4	1359	1435	22.91%	19.80%	57.29%	-18.0	2
1972-05-07	Koge BK	W 4-1	1381	1371	49.51%	20.03%	30.45%	+14.8	7
1972-05-07	@ Frem	L 1-4	1371	1381	30.45%	20.03%	49.51%	-14.8	7
1972-05-07	Vejle BK	W 3-1	1383	1468	36.39%	20.04%	43.57%	+14.0	7
1972-05-07	@ Randers	L 1-3	1468	1383	43.57%	20.04%	36.39%	-14.0	7
1972-05-08	Naestved	L 1-2	1383	1417	43.59%	20.09%	36.32%	-8.1	4
1972-05-08	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1417	1383	36.32%	20.09%	43.59%	+8.1	9
1972-05-10	Randers	L 0-1	1341	1397	40.45%	20.08%	39.47%	-8.1	2
1972-05-10	@ Hvidovre	W 1-0	1397	1341	39.47%	20.08%	40.45%	+8.1	9
1972-05-14	B 1901	W 2-1	1333	1397	39.29%	20.07%	40.63%	+7.6	4
1972-05-14	@ Hvidovre	L 1-2	1397	1333	40.63%	20.07%	39.29%	-7.6	6
1972-05-14	Bronshoj	D 0-0	1356	1362	47.42%	20.06%	32.52%	-0.7	8
1972-05-14	@ Koge BK	D 0-0	1362	1356	32.52%	20.06%	47.42%	+0.7	7
1972-05-14	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1405	1375	51.93%	19.99%	28.08%	-1.0	10
1972-05-14	@ Randers	D 1-1	1375	1405	28.08%	19.99%	51.93%	+1.0	5
1972-05-14	Naestved	W 6-2	1454	1425	51.78%	19.99%	28.23%	+15.2	9
1972-05-14	@ Vejle BK	L 2-6	1425	1454	28.23%	19.99%	51.78%	-15.2	9
1972-05-15	B 1909	W 2-1	1172	1352	24.53%	19.67%	55.81%	+10.1	6
1972-05-15	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1352	1172	55.81%	19.67%	24.53%	-10.1	4
1972-05-15	B 1903	W 3-2	1396	1453	40.36%	20.08%	39.56%	+7.1	9
1972-05-15	@ Frem	L 2-3	1453	1396	39.56%	20.08%	40.36%	-7.1	9
1972-05-23	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1362	1182	66.98%	19.08%	13.94%	+5.2	9
1972-05-23	@ Bronshoj	L 1-3	1182	1362	13.94%	19.08%	66.98%	-5.2	6
1972-05-25	Koge BK	D 2-2	1342	1355	46.40%	20.07%	33.53%	-0.4	5
1972-05-25	@ B 1909	D 2-2	1355	1342	33.53%	20.07%	46.40%	+0.4	9
1972-05-25	B 1903	W 2-1	1376	1446	38.56%	20.07%	41.37%	+7.8	7
1972-05-25	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1446	1376	41.37%	20.07%	38.56%	-7.8	9
1972-05-25	Frem	W 4-2	1410	1403	49.06%	20.04%	30.90%	+9.5	11
1972-05-25	@ Naestved	L 2-4	1403	1410	30.90%	20.04%	49.06%	-9.5	9
1972-05-25	B 1901	L 1-2	1469	1389	57.69%	19.79%	22.52%	-10.4	9
1972-05-25	@ Vejle BK	W 2-1	1389	1469	22.52%	19.79%	57.69%	+10.4	8
1972-05-28	B 1909	W 4-1	1438	1342	59.44%	19.70%	20.87%	+10.7	11
1972-05-28	@ B 1903	L 1-4	1342	1438	20.87%	19.70%	59.44%	-10.7	5
1972-05-28	Hvidovre	W 2-1	1356	1340	50.13%	20.02%	29.84%	+5.9	11
1972-05-28	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1340	1356	29.84%	20.02%	50.13%	-5.9	4
1972-05-28	Naestved	L 0-1	1404	1420	46.08%	20.08%	33.84%	-9.0	10
1972-05-28	@ Randers	W 1-0	1420	1404	33.84%	20.08%	46.08%	+9.0	13
1972-05-28	KB Copenhagen	W 4-2	1459	1384	57.12%	19.81%	23.06%	+7.4	11
1972-05-28	@ Vejle BK	L 2-4	1384	1459	23.06%	19.81%	57.12%	-7.4	7
1972-05-29	Frem	W 2-1	1176	1394	20.78%	19.43%	59.79%	+10.8	8
1972-05-29	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1394	1176	59.79%	19.43%	20.78%	-10.8	9
1972-05-29	B 1901	L 1-6	1368	1400	43.83%	20.09%	36.09%	-31.5	9
1972-05-29	@ Bronshoj	W 6-1	1400	1368	36.09%	20.09%	43.83%	+31.5	10
1972-06-03	Bronshoj	W 3-1	1334	1336	47.95%	20.06%	32.00%	+10.9	6
1972-06-03	@ Hvidovre	L 1-3	1336	1334	32.00%	20.06%	47.95%	-10.9	9
1972-06-04	KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1431	1377	54.89%	19.90%	25.21%	-9.4	10
1972-06-04	@ B 1901	W 3-2	1377	1431	25.21%	19.90%	54.89%	+9.4	9
1972-06-04	Vejle BK	L 2-3	1331	1466	29.81%	19.89%	50.30%	-5.6	5
1972-06-04	@ B 1909	W 3-2	1466	1331	50.30%	19.89%	29.81%	+5.6	13
1972-06-04	Randers	W 3-1	1383	1395	46.57%	20.07%	33.36%	+11.3	11
1972-06-04	@ Frem	L 1-3	1395	1383	33.36%	20.07%	46.57%	-11.3	10
1972-06-04	Aarhus GF	W 4-1	1362	1187	66.49%	19.14%	14.37%	+7.6	13
1972-06-04	@ Koge BK	L 1-4	1187	1362	14.37%	19.14%	66.49%	-7.6	8
1972-06-04	B 1903	L 2-3	1429	1449	45.48%	20.08%	34.44%	-8.0	13
1972-06-04	@ Naestved	W 3-2	1449	1429	34.44%	20.08%	45.48%	+8.0	13
1972-06-10	Naestved	W 3-0	1422	1421	48.32%	20.05%	31.63%	+18.1	12
1972-06-10	@ B 1901	L 0-3	1421	1422	31.63%	20.05%	48.32%	-18.1	13
1972-06-10	Frem	W 6-3	1325	1394	38.60%	20.07%	41.33%	+15.2	11
1972-06-10	@ Bronshoj	L 3-6	1394	1325	41.33%	20.07%	38.60%	-15.2	11
1972-06-11	Vejle BK	W 4-2	1457	1472	46.17%	20.07%	33.76%	+10.2	15
1972-06-11	@ B 1903	L 2-4	1472	1457	33.76%	20.07%	46.17%	-10.2	13
1972-06-11	Koge BK	L 0-1	1384	1369	50.02%	20.03%	29.96%	-9.7	10
1972-06-11	@ Randers	W 1-0	1369	1384	29.96%	20.03%	50.02%	+9.7	15
1972-06-12	Hvidovre	L 1-3	1180	1345	26.15%	19.75%	54.10%	-9.2	8
1972-06-12	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1345	1180	54.10%	19.75%	26.15%	+9.2	8
1972-06-12	B 1909	D 1-1	1386	1325	55.62%	19.87%	24.51%	-1.4	10
1972-06-12	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1325	1386	24.51%	19.87%	55.62%	+1.4	6
1972-06-15	Hvidovre	L 1-3	1379	1355	51.28%	20.00%	28.72%	-16.2	11
1972-06-15	@ Frem	W 3-1	1355	1379	28.72%	20.00%	51.28%	+16.2	10
1972-06-18	Bronshoj	W 4-2	1170	1340	25.67%	19.73%	54.60%	+15.3	10
1972-06-18	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1340	1170	54.60%	19.73%	25.67%	-15.3	11
1972-06-18	Vejle BK	L 1-4	1385	1461	37.54%	20.06%	42.41%	-17.6	10
1972-06-18	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-1	1461	1385	42.41%	20.06%	37.54%	+17.6	15
1972-06-18	Randers	L 1-2	1379	1374	48.81%	20.05%	31.15%	-8.9	15
1972-06-18	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1374	1379	31.15%	20.05%	48.81%	+8.9	12
1972-06-19	Naestved	D 3-3	1327	1402	37.64%	20.06%	42.30%	+0.1	7
1972-06-19	@ B 1909	D 3-3	1402	1327	42.30%	20.06%	37.64%	-0.1	14
1972-06-20	B 1901	W 1-0	1467	1440	51.59%	19.99%	28.42%	+6.0	17
1972-06-20	@ B 1903	L 0-1	1440	1467	28.42%	19.99%	51.59%	-6.1	12
1972-08-08	B 1909	L 1-3	1325	1327	47.95%	20.06%	32.00%	-15.2	11
1972-08-08	@ Bronshoj	W 3-1	1327	1325	32.00%	20.06%	47.95%	+15.2	9
1972-08-09	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1383	1186	68.22%	18.93%	12.85%	+2.8	14
1972-08-09	@ Randers	L 1-2	1186	1383	12.85%	18.93%	68.22%	-2.8	10
1972-08-10	Koge BK	W 1-0	1434	1370	55.95%	19.86%	24.19%	+5.3	14
1972-08-10	@ B 1901	L 0-1	1370	1434	24.19%	19.86%	55.95%	-5.3	15
1972-08-10	B 1903	D 1-1	1371	1473	34.04%	20.00%	45.95%	+0.5	11
1972-08-10	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1473	1371	45.95%	20.00%	34.04%	-0.5	18
1972-08-13	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1402	1479	37.54%	20.06%	42.40%	-14.3	14
1972-08-13	@ Naestved	W 2-0	1479	1402	42.40%	20.06%	37.54%	+14.3	17
1972-08-20	B 1901	L 1-2	1183	1439	17.32%	19.12%	63.57%	-3.7	10
1972-08-20	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1439	1183	63.57%	19.12%	17.32%	+3.7	16
1972-08-20	Randers	D 1-1	1472	1386	58.43%	19.75%	21.82%	-1.6	19
1972-08-20	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1386	1472	21.82%	19.75%	58.43%	+1.6	15
1972-08-20	Bronshoj	W 3-1	1363	1310	54.71%	19.91%	25.39%	+9.0	13
1972-08-20	@ Frem	L 1-3	1310	1363	25.39%	19.91%	54.71%	-9.0	11
1972-08-20	Frem	W 2-1	1367	1372	47.55%	20.06%	32.38%	+6.4	12
1972-08-20	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1372	1367	32.38%	20.06%	47.55%	-6.4	13
1972-08-21	Koge BK	W 2-0	1371	1365	49.01%	20.04%	30.95%	+12.3	13
1972-08-21	@ Hvidovre	L 0-2	1365	1371	30.95%	20.04%	49.01%	-12.3	15
1972-08-21	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1388	1374	50.03%	20.03%	29.95%	-0.9	15
1972-08-21	@ Naestved	D 1-1	1374	1388	29.95%	20.03%	50.03%	+0.9	13
1972-08-21	B 1909	W 5-1	1493	1342	64.58%	19.33%	16.09%	+10.9	19
1972-08-21	@ Vejle BK	L 1-5	1342	1493	16.09%	19.33%	64.58%	-10.9	9
1972-09-17	Hvidovre	W 2-1	1443	1383	55.44%	19.88%	24.68%	+5.1	18
1972-09-17	@ B 1901	L 1-2	1383	1443	24.68%	19.88%	55.44%	-5.1	13
1972-09-17	KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1331	1374	42.25%	20.09%	37.66%	+7.2	11
1972-09-17	@ B 1909	L 1-2	1374	1331	37.66%	20.09%	42.25%	-7.2	13
1972-09-17	Naestved	D 2-2	1471	1387	58.11%	19.77%	22.13%	-1.2	20
1972-09-17	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1387	1471	22.13%	19.77%	58.11%	+1.2	16
1972-09-17	Frem	L 0-4	1352	1365	46.44%	20.07%	33.49%	-32.4	15
1972-09-17	@ Koge BK	W 4-0	1365	1352	33.49%	20.07%	46.44%	+32.4	15
1972-09-17	Bronshoj	L 0-1	1387	1301	58.41%	19.75%	21.84%	-11.2	15
1972-09-17	@ Randers	W 1-0	1301	1387	21.84%	19.75%	58.41%	+11.2	13
1972-09-18	Aarhus GF	W 4-0	1504	1179	75.76%	17.49%	6.75%	+5.6	21
1972-09-18	@ Vejle BK	L 0-4	1179	1504	6.75%	17.49%	75.76%	-5.6	10
1972-09-24	Koge BK	W 1-0	1174	1320	28.40%	19.85%	51.75%	+10.0	12
1972-09-24	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1320	1174	51.75%	19.85%	28.40%	-10.0	15
1972-09-24	B 1903	L 0-1	1338	1469	30.28%	19.91%	49.81%	-6.4	11
1972-09-24	@ B 1909	W 1-0	1469	1338	49.81%	19.91%	30.28%	+6.4	22
1972-09-24	Hvidovre	W 1-0	1312	1378	38.99%	20.07%	40.94%	+8.1	15
1972-09-24	@ Bronshoj	L 0-1	1378	1312	40.94%	20.07%	38.99%	-8.2	13
1972-09-24	Randers	L 3-5	1367	1376	46.98%	20.07%	32.95%	-12.6	13
1972-09-24	@ KB Copenhagen	W 5-3	1376	1367	32.95%	20.07%	46.98%	+12.6	17
1972-09-24	Frem	W 2-1	1510	1398	61.00%	19.60%	19.40%	+4.1	23
1972-09-24	@ Vejle BK	L 1-2	1398	1510	19.40%	19.60%	61.00%	-4.1	15
1972-09-25	B 1901	W 3-1	1388	1448	39.96%	20.08%	39.97%	+13.1	18
1972-09-25	@ Naestved	L 1-3	1448	1388	39.97%	20.08%	39.96%	-13.1	18
1972-09-30	Naestved	D 1-1	1394	1401	47.15%	20.07%	32.78%	-0.6	16
1972-09-30	@ Frem	D 1-1	1401	1394	32.78%	20.07%	47.15%	+0.6	19
1972-10-01	Bronshoj	W 3-1	1435	1320	61.25%	19.59%	19.17%	+7.0	20
1972-10-01	@ B 1901	L 1-3	1320	1435	19.17%	19.59%	61.25%	-7.0	15
1972-10-01	KB Copenhagen	L 2-4	1476	1355	61.89%	19.54%	18.57%	-17.3	22
1972-10-01	@ B 1903	W 4-2	1355	1476	18.57%	19.54%	61.89%	+17.3	15
1972-10-01	Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1370	1184	67.44%	19.03%	13.53%	-2.8	14
1972-10-01	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1184	1370	13.53%	19.03%	67.44%	+2.8	13
1972-10-01	Vejle BK	L 0-3	1310	1514	22.09%	19.52%	58.38%	-13.3	15
1972-10-01	@ Koge BK	W 3-0	1514	1310	58.38%	19.52%	22.09%	+13.3	25
1972-10-01	B 1909	W 1-0	1389	1332	55.17%	19.89%	24.94%	+5.4	19
1972-10-01	@ Randers	L 0-1	1332	1389	24.94%	19.89%	55.17%	-5.4	11
1972-10-08	Hvidovre	L 1-2	1326	1367	42.59%	20.09%	37.32%	-7.9	11
1972-10-08	@ B 1909	W 2-1	1367	1326	37.32%	20.09%	42.59%	+7.9	16
1972-10-08	Koge BK	D 1-1	1313	1297	50.28%	20.02%	29.70%	-0.9	16
1972-10-08	@ Bronshoj	D 1-1	1297	1313	29.70%	20.02%	50.28%	+0.9	16
1972-10-08	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1393	1186	68.91%	18.84%	12.25%	-12.4	16
1972-10-08	@ Frem	W 2-1	1186	1393	12.25%	18.84%	68.91%	+12.4	15
1972-10-08	B 1901	L 1-6	1372	1442	38.47%	20.07%	41.46%	-28.3	15
1972-10-08	@ KB Copenhagen	W 6-1	1442	1372	41.46%	20.07%	38.47%	+28.3	22
1972-10-08	Randers	W 5-3	1402	1394	49.18%	20.04%	30.78%	+8.9	21
1972-10-08	@ Naestved	L 3-5	1394	1402	30.78%	20.04%	49.18%	-8.9	19
1972-10-08	B 1903	W 5-1	1527	1459	56.49%	19.84%	23.67%	+15.4	27
1972-10-08	@ Vejle BK	L 1-5	1459	1527	23.67%	19.84%	56.49%	-15.4	22
1972-10-15	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1199	1344	28.61%	19.85%	51.54%	+9.9	17
1972-10-15	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1344	1199	51.54%	19.85%	28.61%	-9.9	15
1972-10-15	Frem	D 2-2	1470	1381	58.72%	19.74%	21.54%	-1.2	23
1972-10-15	@ B 1901	D 2-2	1381	1470	21.54%	19.74%	58.72%	+1.2	17
1972-10-15	B 1903	L 1-4	1312	1443	30.33%	19.91%	49.76%	-14.7	16
1972-10-15	@ Bronshoj	W 4-1	1443	1312	49.76%	19.91%	30.33%	+14.7	24
1972-10-15	Naestved	L 1-2	1375	1411	43.35%	20.09%	36.57%	-8.1	16
1972-10-15	@ Hvidovre	W 2-1	1411	1375	36.57%	20.09%	43.35%	+8.1	23
1972-10-15	B 1909	D 0-0	1298	1319	45.38%	20.08%	34.54%	-0.5	17
1972-10-15	@ Koge BK	D 0-0	1319	1298	34.54%	20.08%	45.38%	+0.5	12
1972-10-15	Randers	W 1-0	1543	1385	65.10%	19.28%	15.62%	+3.6	29
1972-10-15	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1385	1543	15.62%	19.28%	65.10%	-3.6	19
1972-10-22	Vejle BK	L 1-2	1469	1546	37.43%	20.06%	42.51%	-7.2	23
1972-10-22	@ B 1901	W 2-1	1546	1469	42.51%	20.06%	37.43%	+7.1	31
1972-10-22	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1319	1209	60.85%	19.61%	19.54%	-1.9	13
1972-10-22	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1209	1319	19.54%	19.61%	60.85%	+1.9	18
1972-10-22	Frem	L 3-4	1458	1382	57.28%	19.80%	22.91%	-9.6	24
1972-10-22	@ B 1903	W 4-3	1382	1458	22.91%	19.80%	57.28%	+9.6	19
1972-10-22	Bronshoj	W 1-0	1334	1298	52.70%	19.97%	27.33%	+5.8	17
1972-10-22	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1298	1334	27.33%	19.97%	52.70%	-5.9	16
1972-10-22	Koge BK	D 3-3	1419	1297	61.94%	19.54%	18.52%	-1.2	24
1972-10-22	@ Naestved	D 3-3	1297	1419	18.52%	19.54%	61.94%	+1.2	18
1972-10-22	Hvidovre	L 1-3	1382	1367	50.02%	20.03%	29.95%	-15.8	19
1972-10-22	@ Randers	W 3-1	1367	1382	29.95%	20.03%	50.02%	+15.8	18
1972-10-28	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1383	1339	53.62%	19.94%	26.44%	+5.7	20
1972-10-28	@ Hvidovre	L 0-1	1339	1383	26.44%	19.94%	53.62%	-5.7	17
1972-10-29	Naestved	W 2-1	1211	1418	21.75%	19.50%	58.75%	+10.6	20
1972-10-29	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1418	1211	58.75%	19.50%	21.75%	-10.6	24
1972-10-29	Randers	L 2-3	1462	1366	59.39%	19.70%	20.91%	-10.2	23
1972-10-29	@ B 1901	W 3-2	1366	1462	20.91%	19.70%	59.39%	+10.1	21
1972-10-29	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1292	1553	16.89%	19.07%	64.04%	-6.2	16
1972-10-29	@ Bronshoj	W 3-1	1553	1292	64.04%	19.07%	16.89%	+6.2	33
1972-10-29	B 1909	W 4-2	1392	1317	57.12%	19.81%	23.06%	+7.4	21
1972-10-29	@ Frem	L 2-4	1317	1392	23.06%	19.81%	57.12%	-7.4	13
1972-10-29	B 1903	L 1-2	1298	1448	28.00%	19.83%	52.17%	-5.6	18
1972-10-29	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1448	1298	52.17%	19.83%	28.00%	+5.6	26
1972-11-05	B 1901	W 7-3	1310	1452	28.97%	19.87%	51.16%	+22.8	15
1972-11-05	@ B 1909	L 3-7	1452	1310	51.16%	19.87%	28.97%	-22.8	23
1972-11-05	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1454	1221	70.66%	18.58%	10.76%	-2.8	27
1972-11-05	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1221	1454	10.76%	18.58%	70.66%	+2.8	21
1972-11-05	Koge BK	L 0-2	1334	1293	53.30%	19.95%	26.75%	-19.3	17
1972-11-05	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-0	1293	1334	26.75%	19.95%	53.30%	+19.3	20
1972-11-05	Bronshoj	W 3-1	1407	1286	61.92%	19.54%	18.53%	+6.8	26
1972-11-05	@ Naestved	L 1-3	1286	1407	18.53%	19.54%	61.92%	-6.8	16
1972-11-05	Frem	W 5-0	1376	1399	45.09%	20.08%	34.82%	+31.6	23
1972-11-05	@ Randers	L 0-5	1399	1376	34.82%	20.08%	45.09%	-31.6	21
1972-11-05	Hvidovre	L 1-5	1560	1389	66.20%	19.17%	14.63%	-37.7	33
1972-11-05	@ Vejle BK	W 5-1	1389	1560	14.63%	19.17%	66.20%	+37.7	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1972-04-23	10.55%	Aarhus GF	1168	1	@ KB Copenhagen	1405	0
2	1972-10-08	12.25%	Aarhus GF	1186	2	@ Frem	1393	1
3	1972-11-05	14.63%	Hvidovre	1389	5	@ Vejle BK	1560	1
4	1972-10-01	18.57%	KB Copenhagen	1355	4	@ B 1903	1476	2
5	1972-05-29	20.78%	@ Aarhus GF	1176	2	Frem	1394	1
6	1972-10-29	20.91%	Randers	1366	3	@ B 1901	1462	2
7	1972-10-29	21.75%	@ Aarhus GF	1211	2	Naestved	1418	1
8	1972-09-17	21.84%	Bronshoj	1301	1	@ Randers	1387	0
9	1972-05-25	22.52%	B 1901	1389	2	@ Vejle BK	1469	1
10	1972-10-22	22.91%	Frem	1382	4	@ B 1903	1458	3
11	1972-04-09	23.10%	Koge BK	1353	2	@ B 1903	1427	1
12	1972-05-15	24.53%	@ Aarhus GF	1172	2	B 1909	1352	1
13	1972-06-04	25.21%	KB Copenhagen	1377	3	@ B 1901	1431	2
14	1972-06-18	25.67%	@ Aarhus GF	1170	4	Bronshoj	1340	2
15	1972-05-07	26.02%	Bronshoj	1333	3	@ B 1909	1381	0
16	1972-11-05	26.75%	Koge BK	1293	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1334	0
17	1972-09-24	28.40%	@ Aarhus GF	1174	1	Koge BK	1320	0
18	1972-10-15	28.61%	@ Aarhus GF	1199	1	KB Copenhagen	1344	0
19	1972-06-15	28.72%	Hvidovre	1355	3	@ Frem	1379	1
20	1972-11-05	28.97%	@ B 1909	1310	7	B 1901	1452	3
21	1972-04-23	29.06%	B 1901	1374	4	@ Frem	1395	1
22	1972-10-22	29.95%	Hvidovre	1367	3	@ Randers	1382	1
23	1972-06-11	29.96%	Koge BK	1369	1	@ Randers	1384	0
24	1972-06-18	31.15%	Randers	1374	2	@ Koge BK	1379	1
25	1972-08-08	32.00%	B 1909	1327	3	@ Bronshoj	1325	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1972-11-05	37.68	Hvidovre	5	1389	14.63%	@ Vejle BK	1	1560	66.20%	19.17%
2	1972-09-17	32.42	Frem	4	1365	33.49%	@ Koge BK	0	1352	46.44%	20.07%
3	1972-04-16	31.78	Vejle BK	6	1434	35.62%	@ Hvidovre	1	1405	44.29%	20.09%
4	1972-11-05	31.56	@ Randers	5	1376	45.09%	Frem	0	1399	34.82%	20.08%
5	1972-05-29	31.50	B 1901	6	1400	36.09%	@ Bronshoj	1	1368	43.83%	20.09%
6	1972-05-07	28.43	Bronshoj	3	1333	26.02%	@ B 1909	0	1381	54.05%	19.93%
7	1972-10-08	28.33	B 1901	6	1442	41.46%	@ KB Copenhagen	1	1372	38.47%	20.07%
8	1972-04-09	25.34	@ Vejle BK	5	1409	53.31%	Bronshoj	0	1368	26.74%	19.95%
9	1972-11-05	22.77	@ B 1909	7	1310	28.97%	B 1901	3	1452	51.16%	19.87%
10	1972-04-23	22.70	B 1901	4	1374	29.06%	@ Frem	1	1395	50.93%	20.01%
11	1972-11-05	19.32	Koge BK	2	1293	26.75%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1334	53.30%	19.95%
12	1972-04-16	19.25	Randers	4	1387	37.86%	@ Bronshoj	1	1342	42.05%	20.09%
13	1972-06-10	18.12	@ B 1901	3	1422	48.32%	Naestved	0	1421	31.63%	20.05%
14	1972-05-07	18.00	@ B 1903	4	1435	57.29%	Hvidovre	0	1359	22.91%	19.80%
15	1972-06-18	17.56	Vejle BK	4	1461	42.41%	@ KB Copenhagen	1	1385	37.54%	20.06%
16	1972-10-01	17.27	KB Copenhagen	4	1355	18.57%	@ B 1903	2	1476	61.89%	19.54%
17	1972-06-15	16.15	Hvidovre	3	1355	28.72%	@ Frem	1	1379	51.28%	20.00%
18	1972-10-22	15.79	Hvidovre	3	1367	29.95%	@ Randers	1	1382	50.02%	20.03%
19	1972-10-08	15.43	@ Vejle BK	5	1527	56.49%	B 1903	1	1459	23.67%	19.84%
20	1972-06-18	15.28	@ Aarhus GF	4	1170	25.67%	Bronshoj	2	1340	54.60%	19.73%
21	1972-05-14	15.22	@ Vejle BK	6	1454	51.78%	Naestved	2	1425	28.23%	19.99%
22	1972-06-10	15.22	@ Bronshoj	6	1325	38.60%	Frem	3	1394	41.33%	20.07%
23	1972-08-08	15.21	B 1909	3	1327	32.00%	@ Bronshoj	1	1325	47.95%	20.06%
24	1972-04-23	14.85	@ B 1909	5	1372	43.49%	Randers	2	1406	36.43%	20.09%
25	1972-05-07	14.81	@ Frem	4	1381	49.51%	Koge BK	1	1371	30.45%	20.03%