1971 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Vejle BK

29 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1958

Relegated

AB Gladsaxe

17 pts

Aalborg · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Koge BK

5.21 points above expected

23 points · 17.79 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

AB Gladsaxe

5.31 points below expected

17 points · 22.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vejle BK Champion 22 13 3 6 29 61 40 +21 24.01 +4.99
2 Hvidovre 22 10 4 8 24 44 38 +6 23.41 +0.59
3 Frem 22 10 4 8 24 40 36 +4 22.18 +1.82
4 KB Copenhagen 22 10 4 8 24 49 47 +2 22.72 +1.28
5 Randers 22 9 5 8 23 40 42 -2 21.83 +1.17
6 Koge BK 22 9 5 8 23 44 47 -3 17.79 +5.21
7 Bronshoj 22 10 2 10 22 43 52 -9 19.94 +2.06
8 B 1903 22 7 7 8 21 35 31 +4 24.55 -3.55
9 B 1901 22 8 4 10 20 46 47 -1 21.93 -1.93
10 B 1909 22 6 7 9 19 39 40 -1 22.06 -3.06
11 Aalborg Relegated 22 7 4 11 18 37 47 -10 21.26 -3.26
12 AB Gladsaxe Relegated 22 7 3 12 17 34 45 -11 22.31 -5.31

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vejle BK 1448 29 24.01 +4.99 91.0% 8 17 21 24 27 31 38
B 1903 1440 21 24.55 -3.55 22.7% 8 18 22 25 27 31 37
Hvidovre 1416 24 23.41 +0.59 60.8% 9 17 21 23 26 30 37
KB Copenhagen 1409 24 22.72 +1.28 66.8% 8 16 20 23 25 29 37
Frem 1398 24 22.18 +1.82 70.9% 4 15 19 22 25 29 39
Aalborg 1393 18 21.26 -3.26 24.8% 7 15 19 21 24 28 36
AB Gladsaxe 1389 17 22.31 -5.31 12.3% 7 16 20 22 25 29 35
Randers 1384 23 21.83 +1.17 65.5% 7 15 19 22 25 29 37
B 1909 1383 19 22.06 -3.06 27.1% 8 15 19 22 25 29 36
B 1901 1382 20 21.93 -1.93 36.1% 6 15 19 22 25 29 37
Bronshoj 1361 22 19.94 +2.06 73.8% 3 13 17 20 23 27 35
Koge BK 1338 23 17.79 +5.21 91.7% 4 11 15 18 21 25 31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL B1 B1 B1 BRO FRE HVI KC KB RAN VB
AB Gladsaxe
0-0-2
2.89
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
3.18
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
2.62
Aalborg
2-0-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.64
0-2-0
2.29
0-0-2
2.78
0-0-2
3.04
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.42
B 1901
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.44
1-1-0
2.65
0-0-2
3.09
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.23
1-1-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.63
B 1903
0-1-1
3.12
0-2-0
3.30
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
3.29
0-1-1
3.05
0-1-1
2.95
0-0-2
2.99
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.82
B 1909
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
2.81
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.79
0-2-0
2.60
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-2
3.39
0-1-1
2.87
0-1-1
2.50
Bronshoj
2-0-0
2.40
2-0-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.49
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.48
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.40
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.42
Frem
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.53
1-1-0
2.80
2-0-0
3.10
0-0-2
2.64
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.47
Hvidovre
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
2.92
1-1-0
2.64
0-2-0
2.99
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
3.51
0-0-2
2.99
2-0-0
2.65
KB Copenhagen
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.59
0-0-2
2.92
2-0-0
3.19
1-1-0
2.83
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
3.38
0-1-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.66
Koge BK
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.36
1-0-1
1.98
2-0-0
2.20
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.19
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
2.21
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.03
Randers
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.60
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.31
0-1-1
2.47
Vejle BK
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.17
0-0-2
3.11
0-0-2
2.93
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.12

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.67 +3.7
Allowed 0.05 -1.2
Differential 0.70 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%4.55%3.03%1.89%0.76%1.52%13.26%
14.55%7.58%7.20%4.17%2.65%0.76%26.89%
23.03%7.20%8.33%6.06%4.92%0.76%30.30%
31.89%4.17%6.06%2.27%1.14%0.38%15.91%
40.76%2.65%4.92%1.14%0.38%9.85%
5+1.52%0.76%0.76%0.38%0.38%3.79%
Total13.26%26.89%30.30%15.91%9.85%3.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.94 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.91
CV 0.68 0.68
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%22.73%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%40.91%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total9.09%22.73%40.91%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.05 -0.50
SD 0.91 1.25 1.77
CV 0.59 0.61
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
29.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%22.73%22.73%18.18%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.14 -0.45
SD 1.13 1.39 2.06
CV 0.67 0.65
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%36.36%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%18.18%36.36%9.09%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 2.14 -0.05
SD 1.19 1.42 1.99
CV 0.57 0.67
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
29.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.41 +0.18
SD 1.30 1.14 1.22
CV 0.82 0.81
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%4.55%13.64%40.91%
213.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%31.82%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.82 -0.05
SD 1.41 1.30 2.21
CV 0.80 0.71
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%22.73%9.09%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 2.36 -0.41
SD 1.53 1.76 2.52
CV 0.78 0.74
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.64 +0.18
SD 1.47 1.09 1.71
CV 0.81 0.67
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
213.64%22.73%4.55%40.91%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total13.64%40.91%9.09%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.73 +0.27
SD 1.02 1.20 1.52
CV 0.51 0.70
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%31.82%
213.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total18.18%22.73%13.64%22.73%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.14 +0.09
SD 1.38 1.55 2.29
CV 0.62 0.73
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
413.64%4.55%18.18%
5+
Total9.09%18.18%40.91%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.14 -0.14
SD 1.23 1.25 1.75
CV 0.62 0.58
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%18.18%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
29.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
39.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total4.55%27.27%54.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.91 -0.09
SD 1.26 1.06 1.74
CV 0.69 0.56
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%9.09%18.18%
29.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%13.64%18.18%
413.64%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
Total18.18%13.64%45.45%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 1.82 +0.95
SD 1.60 1.18 1.76
CV 0.58 0.65
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Koge BK 23 17.79 +5.21
2 Vejle BK 29 24.01 +4.99
3 Bronshoj 22 19.94 +2.06
4 Frem 24 22.18 +1.82
5 KB Copenhagen 24 22.72 +1.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AB Gladsaxe 17 22.31 -5.31
2 B 1903 21 24.55 -3.55
3 Aalborg 18 21.26 -3.26
4 B 1909 19 22.06 -3.06
5 B 1901 20 21.93 -1.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 3 Apr 25 – May 9 1 in 54
2 Vejle BK 5 Jun 6 – Aug 22 1 in 52
3 KB Copenhagen 4 Apr 4 – Apr 25 1 in 51
4 Frem 3 Apr 4 – Apr 17 1 in 25
5 B 1901 3 Aug 22 – Sep 13 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1901 6 Sep 19 – Nov 7 1 in 596
2 AB Gladsaxe 5 Apr 3 – May 2 1 in 124
3 Aalborg 4 Apr 4 – Apr 25 1 in 69
4 B 1909 3 May 9 – May 23 1 in 28
5 Bronshoj 4 Apr 11 – May 2 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 5 Jun 13 – Aug 29 1 in 41
2 Vejle BK 7 Apr 12 – May 23 1 in 23
3 B 1909 5 Apr 4 – May 2 1 in 17
4 B 1901 5 Apr 12 – May 9 1 in 15
5 Hvidovre 5 Sep 20 – Oct 31 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Randers 9 Jun 6 – Oct 3 1 in 75
2 Aalborg 8 Apr 4 – May 23 1 in 70
3 B 1901 6 Sep 19 – Nov 7 1 in 34
4 Frem 6 Jun 12 – Sep 12 1 in 28
5 AB Gladsaxe 6 Apr 3 – May 9 1 in 24

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Vejle BK17.98%13.99%12.07%10.23%8.98%7.98%7.13%6.28%5.77%4.42%3.31%1.86%
Hvidovre13.22%12.09%10.48%10.71%9.57%8.89%8.25%7.27%6.61%5.61%4.46%2.84%
Frem7.84%8.34%9.41%9.29%9.23%8.66%9.23%9.16%7.99%7.80%7.36%5.69%
KB Copenhagen9.35%9.47%9.51%10.03%9.71%9.34%9.19%8.23%7.98%6.62%6.06%4.51%
Randers6.13%7.20%7.84%8.60%8.65%8.87%9.38%8.98%9.72%8.95%8.34%7.34%
Koge BK0.87%1.15%1.88%2.78%3.86%4.48%5.74%7.22%9.66%13.45%17.83%31.08%
Bronshoj2.36%3.58%4.32%5.06%6.02%6.93%8.47%9.11%10.35%13.01%14.91%15.88%
B 190319.02%15.03%12.61%10.74%8.86%8.25%6.68%6.03%4.68%3.75%2.82%1.53%
B 19016.28%7.51%8.27%8.76%9.04%9.32%9.29%9.27%9.26%8.45%7.95%6.60%
B 19096.67%8.30%8.73%8.31%9.25%8.98%9.11%8.92%8.96%8.71%7.66%6.40%
Aalborg3.76%5.63%6.46%7.11%7.53%8.89%8.94%10.58%10.13%10.34%10.93%9.70%
AB Gladsaxe6.52%7.71%8.42%8.38%9.30%9.41%8.59%8.95%8.89%8.89%8.37%6.57%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.61%
Slight Edge
45.45%19.70%34.85%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.99 Elo pts.
309 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.4
Wide Open
124611
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Vejle BK, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Tight Race
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.27 * Some Luck: 3.27 to 4.91 * Lucky: 4.91 to 6.55 * Wild Swing: 6.55 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.47 * Close: 2.47 to 3.7 * Off: 3.7 to 4.94 * Way Off: 4.94 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.2 * A Surprise: 1.2 to 1.92 * Several Surprises: 1.92 to 2.65 * Many Surprises: 2.65 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.26 points
As Expected
04.0910
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.17
Close
03.098
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
91.68%
Koge BK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
12.34%
AB Gladsaxe
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
Several Surprises
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.08
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.70
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
54%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
65%
Even
50%65%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.20
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.64
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
-0.17
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
36%
Upset-Prone
0%32%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
41%
Very Shaky
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.08
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.63
Overconfident
01.003.11993
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.137
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1190.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
B 1903 95.65% 4.35%
Vejle BK 94.83% 5.17%
Hvidovre 92.70% 7.30%
KB Copenhagen 89.43% 10.57%
Frem 86.95% 13.05%
B 1909 85.94% 14.06%
B 1901 85.45% 14.55%
AB Gladsaxe 85.06% 14.94%
Randers 84.32% 15.68%
Aalborg 79.37% 20.63%
Bronshoj 69.21% 30.79%
Koge BK 51.09% 48.91%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1971-04-03 Bronshoj L 0-1 1419 1374 53.04% 20.50% 26.47% -4.2 0
1971-04-03 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1374 1419 26.47% 20.50% 53.04% +4.2 2
1971-04-04 B 1909 L 0-3 1414 1385 50.99% 20.64% 28.38% -11.1 0
1971-04-04 @ Aalborg W 3-0 1385 1414 28.38% 20.64% 50.99% +11.1 2
1971-04-04 Frem L 3-4 1380 1390 45.96% 20.84% 33.20% -3.2 0
1971-04-04 @ B 1901 W 4-3 1390 1380 33.20% 20.84% 45.96% +3.2 2
1971-04-04 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1439 1407 51.40% 20.61% 27.99% -3.6 0
1971-04-04 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1407 1439 27.99% 20.61% 51.40% +3.7 2
1971-04-04 Vejle BK W 3-2 1407 1403 47.85% 20.79% 31.37% +2.4 2
1971-04-04 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1403 1407 31.37% 20.79% 47.85% -2.4 0
1971-04-04 Koge BK W 2-1 1391 1332 54.64% 20.36% 25.00% +2.1 2
1971-04-04 @ Randers L 1-2 1332 1391 25.00% 20.36% 54.64% -2.1 0
1971-04-11 B 1903 L 0-1 1378 1436 39.26% 20.86% 39.88% -3.3 2
1971-04-11 @ Bronshoj W 1-0 1436 1378 39.88% 20.86% 39.26% +3.2 2
1971-04-12 B 1901 D 2-2 1396 1377 49.78% 20.70% 29.51% -0.3 3
1971-04-12 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1377 1396 29.51% 20.70% 49.78% +0.3 1
1971-04-12 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1393 1415 44.31% 20.87% 34.81% +2.8 4
1971-04-12 @ Frem L 1-2 1415 1393 34.81% 20.87% 44.31% -2.8 0
1971-04-12 Aalborg W 4-1 1410 1403 48.13% 20.78% 31.09% +6.2 4
1971-04-12 @ Hvidovre L 1-4 1403 1410 31.09% 20.78% 48.13% -6.2 0
1971-04-12 Koge BK W 3-2 1411 1330 57.23% 20.09% 22.67% +1.8 4
1971-04-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1330 1411 22.67% 20.09% 57.23% -1.8 0
1971-04-12 Randers D 2-2 1400 1393 48.24% 20.77% 30.99% -0.2 1
1971-04-12 @ Vejle BK D 2-2 1393 1400 30.99% 20.77% 48.24% +0.2 3
1971-04-17 Frem L 1-2 1439 1396 52.76% 20.52% 26.72% -3.9 2
1971-04-17 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1396 1439 26.72% 20.52% 52.76% +3.9 6
1971-04-18 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1412 1413 47.16% 20.81% 32.03% -3.6 0
1971-04-18 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1413 1412 32.03% 20.81% 47.16% +3.6 6
1971-04-18 Hvidovre D 1-1 1396 1416 44.59% 20.87% 34.54% -0.2 4
1971-04-18 @ B 1909 D 1-1 1416 1396 34.54% 20.87% 44.59% +0.2 5
1971-04-18 B 1901 L 0-5 1328 1377 40.46% 20.88% 38.66% -14.7 0
1971-04-18 @ Koge BK W 5-0 1377 1328 38.66% 20.88% 40.46% +14.7 3
1971-04-18 Aalborg W 2-1 1393 1397 46.75% 20.82% 32.42% +2.6 5
1971-04-18 @ Randers L 1-2 1397 1393 32.42% 20.82% 46.75% -2.6 0
1971-04-18 Bronshoj W 6-3 1400 1375 50.54% 20.66% 28.80% +4.7 3
1971-04-18 @ Vejle BK L 3-6 1375 1400 28.80% 20.66% 50.54% -4.7 2
1971-04-25 Koge BK L 0-1 1394 1313 57.20% 20.10% 22.71% -4.5 0
1971-04-25 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1313 1394 22.71% 20.10% 57.20% +4.5 2
1971-04-25 Hvidovre W 3-2 1392 1416 44.01% 20.88% 35.11% +2.7 5
1971-04-25 @ B 1901 L 2-3 1416 1392 35.11% 20.88% 44.01% -2.7 5
1971-04-25 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1370 1416 40.88% 20.88% 38.24% -3.2 2
1971-04-25 @ Bronshoj W 2-1 1416 1370 38.24% 20.88% 40.88% +3.2 8
1971-04-25 Randers D 1-1 1435 1396 52.32% 20.55% 27.13% -0.5 3
1971-04-25 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1396 1435 27.13% 20.55% 52.32% +0.5 6
1971-04-25 AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1405 1408 46.74% 20.82% 32.44% +2.5 5
1971-04-25 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1408 1405 32.44% 20.82% 46.74% -2.5 0
1971-04-26 B 1909 D 1-1 1400 1396 47.78% 20.79% 31.43% -0.3 7
1971-04-26 @ Frem D 1-1 1396 1400 31.43% 20.79% 47.78% +0.3 5
1971-05-01 B 1903 W 3-2 1407 1435 43.53% 20.88% 35.59% +2.7 7
1971-05-01 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1435 1407 35.59% 20.88% 43.53% -2.7 3
1971-05-02 B 1901 D 2-2 1390 1395 46.56% 20.83% 32.61% -0.2 1
1971-05-02 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1395 1390 32.61% 20.83% 46.56% +0.2 6
1971-05-02 Bronshoj W 4-0 1413 1367 53.17% 20.48% 26.34% +8.4 7
1971-05-02 @ Hvidovre L 0-4 1367 1413 26.34% 20.48% 53.17% -8.4 2
1971-05-02 B 1909 L 1-4 1420 1396 50.29% 20.68% 29.03% -9.2 8
1971-05-02 @ KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1396 1420 29.03% 20.68% 50.29% +9.2 7
1971-05-02 Frem W 4-2 1318 1400 35.91% 20.77% 43.32% +5.1 4
1971-05-02 @ Koge BK L 2-4 1400 1318 43.32% 20.77% 35.91% -5.1 7
1971-05-02 AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1396 1406 45.92% 20.84% 33.24% +6.6 8
1971-05-02 @ Randers L 1-4 1406 1396 33.24% 20.84% 45.92% -6.6 0
1971-05-09 B 1903 D 2-2 1399 1432 42.83% 20.89% 36.29% -0.1 1
1971-05-09 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1432 1399 36.29% 20.89% 42.83% +0.1 4
1971-05-09 Vejle BK D 1-1 1395 1410 45.24% 20.86% 33.90% -0.2 7
1971-05-09 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1410 1395 33.90% 20.86% 45.24% +0.2 8
1971-05-09 Koge BK L 1-2 1405 1323 57.40% 20.07% 22.53% -4.2 7
1971-05-09 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1323 1405 22.53% 20.07% 57.40% +4.2 6
1971-05-09 Randers W 2-0 1359 1403 41.19% 20.88% 37.93% +6.0 4
1971-05-09 @ Bronshoj L 0-2 1403 1359 37.93% 20.88% 41.19% -6.0 8
1971-05-09 Aalborg W 3-1 1394 1389 47.93% 20.78% 31.29% +4.4 9
1971-05-09 @ Frem L 1-3 1389 1394 31.29% 20.78% 47.93% -4.4 1
1971-05-09 Hvidovre D 3-3 1410 1422 45.72% 20.85% 33.43% -0.1 9
1971-05-09 @ KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1422 1410 33.43% 20.85% 45.72% +0.1 8
1971-05-16 Aalborg W 4-2 1365 1385 44.49% 20.87% 34.64% +4.3 6
1971-05-16 @ Bronshoj L 2-4 1385 1365 34.64% 20.87% 44.49% -4.3 1
1971-05-16 Frem W 1-0 1422 1399 50.24% 20.68% 29.08% +2.5 10
1971-05-16 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1399 1422 29.08% 20.68% 50.24% -2.6 9
1971-05-16 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1327 1399 37.24% 20.82% 41.94% -5.1 6
1971-05-16 @ Koge BK W 3-1 1399 1327 41.94% 20.82% 37.24% +5.1 3
1971-05-16 B 1909 W 3-1 1397 1401 46.64% 20.83% 32.53% +4.6 10
1971-05-16 @ Randers L 1-3 1401 1397 32.53% 20.83% 46.64% -4.6 7
1971-05-16 KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1410 1410 47.24% 20.81% 31.95% +4.0 10
1971-05-16 @ Vejle BK L 2-4 1410 1410 31.95% 20.81% 47.24% -4.0 9
1971-05-17 B 1901 W 4-1 1432 1395 52.05% 20.57% 27.38% +5.6 6
1971-05-17 @ B 1903 L 1-4 1395 1432 27.38% 20.57% 52.05% -5.6 7
1971-05-23 B 1903 D 0-0 1381 1438 39.37% 20.86% 39.77% +0.0 2
1971-05-23 @ Aalborg D 0-0 1438 1381 39.77% 20.86% 39.37% +0.0 7
1971-05-23 AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1389 1404 45.19% 20.86% 33.95% +2.6 9
1971-05-23 @ B 1901 L 2-3 1404 1389 33.95% 20.86% 45.19% -2.6 3
1971-05-23 Vejle BK L 0-2 1397 1414 44.90% 20.86% 34.23% -6.9 7
1971-05-23 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1414 1397 34.23% 20.86% 44.90% +6.9 12
1971-05-23 Bronshoj W 1-0 1396 1369 50.83% 20.64% 28.52% +2.5 11
1971-05-23 @ Frem L 0-1 1369 1396 28.52% 20.64% 50.83% -2.5 6
1971-05-23 Randers L 2-4 1406 1401 47.90% 20.78% 31.31% -5.6 9
1971-05-23 @ KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1401 1406 31.31% 20.78% 47.90% +5.6 12
1971-05-23 Hvidovre W 4-2 1322 1424 33.20% 20.64% 46.16% +5.4 8
1971-05-23 @ Koge BK L 2-4 1424 1322 46.16% 20.64% 33.20% -5.4 10
1971-06-01 Aalborg L 1-2 1402 1381 50.02% 20.69% 29.29% -3.8 3
1971-06-01 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1381 1402 29.29% 20.69% 50.02% +3.8 4
1971-06-01 B 1901 L 1-3 1400 1392 48.42% 20.76% 30.82% -6.3 9
1971-06-01 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1392 1400 30.82% 20.76% 48.42% +6.3 11
1971-06-01 Hvidovre W 1-0 1407 1419 45.63% 20.85% 33.52% +2.9 14
1971-06-01 @ Randers L 0-1 1419 1407 33.52% 20.85% 45.63% -2.9 10
1971-06-01 Frem L 2-4 1421 1399 50.14% 20.68% 29.18% -5.8 12
1971-06-01 @ Vejle BK W 4-2 1399 1421 29.18% 20.68% 50.14% +5.8 13
1971-06-03 Koge BK W 4-2 1366 1328 52.23% 20.55% 27.22% +3.5 8
1971-06-03 @ Bronshoj L 2-4 1328 1366 27.22% 20.55% 52.23% -3.5 8
1971-06-06 KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1384 1394 45.94% 20.84% 33.21% -8.6 4
1971-06-06 @ Aalborg W 4-1 1394 1384 33.21% 20.84% 45.94% +8.5 11
1971-06-06 Bronshoj L 1-2 1398 1370 50.92% 20.64% 28.44% -3.8 11
1971-06-06 @ B 1901 W 2-1 1370 1398 28.44% 20.64% 50.92% +3.8 10
1971-06-06 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1390 1398 46.14% 20.84% 33.02% -0.2 8
1971-06-06 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1398 1390 33.02% 20.84% 46.14% +0.2 4
1971-06-06 Randers W 5-1 1405 1410 46.58% 20.83% 32.59% +8.4 15
1971-06-06 @ Frem L 1-5 1410 1405 32.59% 20.83% 46.58% -8.4 14
1971-06-06 B 1903 W 1-0 1416 1438 44.34% 20.87% 34.78% +3.0 12
1971-06-06 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1438 1416 34.78% 20.87% 44.34% -3.0 7
1971-06-06 Vejle BK L 2-4 1324 1415 34.67% 20.72% 44.62% -4.3 8
1971-06-06 @ Koge BK W 4-2 1415 1324 44.62% 20.72% 34.67% +4.3 14
1971-06-12 Frem W 2-1 1403 1413 45.87% 20.85% 33.29% +2.7 13
1971-06-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1413 1403 33.29% 20.85% 45.87% -2.7 15
1971-06-13 B 1909 L 1-5 1374 1390 45.10% 20.86% 34.04% -10.9 10
1971-06-13 @ Bronshoj W 5-1 1390 1374 34.04% 20.86% 45.10% +10.9 10
1971-06-13 Koge BK L 3-4 1435 1320 60.89% 19.59% 19.52% -4.2 7
1971-06-13 @ B 1903 W 4-3 1320 1435 19.52% 19.59% 60.89% +4.2 10
1971-06-13 B 1901 D 2-2 1401 1394 48.20% 20.77% 31.03% -0.2 15
1971-06-13 @ Randers D 2-2 1394 1401 31.03% 20.77% 48.20% +0.2 12
1971-06-14 Hvidovre W 3-2 1398 1419 44.44% 20.87% 34.69% +2.6 6
1971-06-14 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1419 1398 34.69% 20.87% 44.44% -2.6 12
1971-06-23 B 1909 W 2-0 1430 1401 51.13% 20.63% 28.24% +4.7 9
1971-06-23 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1401 1430 28.24% 20.63% 51.13% -4.7 10
1971-06-23 Aalborg W 4-2 1419 1376 52.83% 20.51% 26.66% +3.5 16
1971-06-23 @ Vejle BK L 2-4 1376 1419 26.66% 20.51% 52.83% -3.4 4
1971-08-11 Vejle BK L 2-3 1372 1423 40.29% 20.88% 38.84% -3.0 4
1971-08-11 @ Aalborg W 3-2 1423 1372 38.84% 20.88% 40.29% +3.0 18
1971-08-11 Randers W 2-0 1394 1401 46.36% 20.83% 32.81% +5.3 14
1971-08-11 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1401 1394 32.81% 20.83% 46.36% -5.3 15
1971-08-11 KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1396 1405 45.96% 20.84% 33.19% +6.6 12
1971-08-11 @ B 1909 L 1-4 1405 1396 33.19% 20.84% 45.96% -6.6 13
1971-08-11 B 1903 D 0-0 1410 1435 43.89% 20.88% 35.23% -0.2 16
1971-08-11 @ Frem D 0-0 1435 1410 35.23% 20.88% 43.89% +0.2 10
1971-08-11 Bronshoj D 3-3 1324 1363 41.94% 20.89% 37.18% -0.0 11
1971-08-11 @ Koge BK D 3-3 1363 1324 37.18% 20.89% 41.94% +0.0 11
1971-08-12 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1416 1401 49.29% 20.73% 29.99% +2.5 14
1971-08-12 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1401 1416 29.99% 20.73% 49.29% -2.5 6
1971-08-15 Aalborg W 4-0 1402 1369 51.52% 20.60% 27.88% +8.8 14
1971-08-15 @ B 1909 L 0-4 1369 1402 27.88% 20.60% 51.52% -8.8 4
1971-08-15 Bronshoj D 1-1 1435 1363 56.26% 20.20% 23.54% -0.6 11
1971-08-15 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1363 1435 23.54% 20.20% 56.26% +0.6 12
1971-08-15 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1419 1399 49.87% 20.70% 29.43% +4.2 16
1971-08-15 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1399 1419 29.43% 20.70% 49.87% -4.2 13
1971-08-15 Randers W 2-0 1324 1396 37.26% 20.82% 41.92% +6.5 13
1971-08-15 @ Koge BK L 0-2 1396 1324 41.92% 20.82% 37.26% -6.5 15
1971-08-15 B 1901 W 5-2 1426 1400 50.65% 20.66% 28.70% +5.0 20
1971-08-15 @ Vejle BK L 2-5 1400 1426 28.70% 20.66% 50.65% -5.0 14
1971-08-16 Frem W 2-0 1398 1410 45.67% 20.85% 33.48% +5.4 8
1971-08-16 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1410 1398 33.48% 20.85% 45.67% -5.4 16
1971-08-19 AB Gladsaxe W 5-0 1395 1404 46.02% 20.84% 33.14% +12.5 15
1971-08-19 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-5 1404 1395 33.14% 20.84% 46.02% -12.5 8
1971-08-22 Hvidovre W 3-1 1361 1423 38.58% 20.85% 40.57% +5.5 6
1971-08-22 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1423 1361 40.57% 20.85% 38.58% -5.5 16
1971-08-22 B 1909 W 3-0 1395 1411 45.03% 20.86% 34.11% +8.0 16
1971-08-22 @ B 1901 L 0-3 1411 1395 34.11% 20.86% 45.03% -8.0 14
1971-08-22 Vejle BK L 0-5 1363 1431 37.88% 20.83% 41.29% -14.0 12
1971-08-22 @ Bronshoj W 5-0 1431 1363 41.29% 20.83% 37.88% +14.0 22
1971-08-22 B 1903 L 2-4 1389 1435 41.01% 20.88% 38.11% -4.9 15
1971-08-22 @ Randers W 4-2 1435 1389 38.11% 20.88% 41.01% +4.9 13
1971-08-23 Koge BK D 1-1 1405 1330 56.49% 20.18% 23.34% -0.6 17
1971-08-23 @ Frem D 1-1 1330 1405 23.34% 20.18% 56.49% +0.6 14
1971-08-29 Hvidovre W 3-2 1349 1418 37.79% 20.83% 41.38% +3.0 14
1971-08-29 @ Bronshoj L 2-3 1418 1349 41.38% 20.83% 37.79% -3.0 16
1971-08-29 Aalborg D 2-2 1440 1366 56.39% 20.19% 23.43% -0.4 14
1971-08-29 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1366 1440 23.43% 20.19% 56.39% +0.5 7
1971-08-29 KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1384 1407 44.17% 20.88% 34.96% -0.1 16
1971-08-29 @ Randers D 3-3 1407 1384 34.96% 20.88% 44.17% +0.1 16
1971-08-29 Koge BK L 1-2 1445 1331 60.79% 19.61% 19.60% -4.5 22
1971-08-29 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1331 1445 19.60% 19.61% 60.79% +4.5 16
1971-08-30 B 1909 W 3-1 1391 1403 45.65% 20.85% 33.50% +4.7 10
1971-08-30 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1403 1391 33.50% 20.85% 45.65% -4.7 14
1971-08-31 B 1901 L 2-3 1404 1403 47.45% 20.80% 31.75% -3.4 17
1971-08-31 @ Frem W 3-2 1403 1404 31.75% 20.80% 47.45% +3.4 18
1971-09-12 Frem W 3-0 1367 1401 42.57% 20.89% 36.54% +8.4 9
1971-09-12 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1401 1367 36.54% 20.89% 42.57% -8.4 17
1971-09-12 Vejle BK L 0-3 1396 1440 41.15% 20.88% 37.97% -9.3 10
1971-09-12 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1440 1396 37.97% 20.88% 41.15% +9.3 24
1971-09-12 Randers D 2-2 1399 1384 49.13% 20.73% 30.14% -0.2 15
1971-09-12 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1384 1399 30.14% 20.73% 49.13% +0.2 17
1971-09-12 Bronshoj W 5-0 1407 1353 54.19% 20.40% 25.41% +10.0 18
1971-09-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-5 1353 1407 25.41% 20.40% 54.19% -10.0 14
1971-09-12 B 1903 L 0-2 1336 1439 33.00% 20.63% 46.37% -5.3 16
1971-09-12 @ Koge BK W 2-0 1439 1336 46.37% 20.63% 33.00% +5.3 16
1971-09-13 B 1901 L 2-3 1415 1406 48.37% 20.77% 30.86% -3.5 16
1971-09-13 @ Hvidovre W 3-2 1406 1415 30.86% 20.77% 48.37% +3.5 20
1971-09-18 Frem L 2-4 1343 1392 40.37% 20.88% 38.75% -4.9 14
1971-09-18 @ Bronshoj W 4-2 1392 1343 38.75% 20.88% 40.37% +4.9 19
1971-09-19 Aalborg L 1-3 1410 1375 51.72% 20.59% 27.69% -6.7 20
1971-09-19 @ B 1901 W 3-1 1375 1410 27.69% 20.59% 51.72% +6.7 11
1971-09-19 B 1903 W 1-0 1398 1444 40.89% 20.88% 38.23% +3.2 17
1971-09-19 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1444 1398 38.23% 20.88% 40.89% -3.2 16
1971-09-19 Vejle BK L 4-5 1417 1450 42.84% 20.89% 36.27% -3.0 18
1971-09-19 @ KB Copenhagen W 5-4 1450 1417 36.27% 20.89% 42.84% +3.0 26
1971-09-20 Randers W 2-1 1387 1385 47.54% 20.80% 31.66% +2.6 12
1971-09-20 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1385 1387 31.66% 20.80% 47.54% -2.6 17
1971-09-20 Koge BK W 2-1 1411 1330 57.23% 20.09% 22.68% +1.9 18
1971-09-20 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1330 1411 22.68% 20.09% 57.23% -1.9 16
1971-10-03 Bronshoj L 1-3 1382 1338 52.89% 20.51% 26.60% -6.8 11
1971-10-03 @ Aalborg W 3-1 1338 1382 26.60% 20.51% 52.89% +6.8 16
1971-10-03 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1441 1389 53.86% 20.43% 25.71% -4.0 16
1971-10-03 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1389 1441 25.71% 20.43% 53.86% +4.0 14
1971-10-03 Hvidovre L 1-2 1397 1413 45.12% 20.86% 34.02% -3.4 19
1971-10-03 @ Frem W 2-1 1413 1397 34.02% 20.86% 45.12% +3.4 20
1971-10-03 B 1909 W 4-2 1328 1401 37.07% 20.81% 42.12% +5.0 18
1971-10-03 @ Koge BK L 2-4 1401 1328 42.12% 20.81% 37.07% -5.0 17
1971-10-03 Vejle BK L 0-2 1382 1453 37.43% 20.82% 41.75% -5.9 17
1971-10-03 @ Randers W 2-0 1453 1382 41.75% 20.82% 37.43% +5.9 28
1971-10-04 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1403 1414 45.72% 20.85% 33.43% -3.7 20
1971-10-04 @ B 1901 W 1-0 1414 1403 33.43% 20.85% 45.72% +3.7 20
1971-10-17 B 1903 W 1-0 1418 1437 44.64% 20.87% 34.49% +2.9 22
1971-10-17 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1437 1418 34.49% 20.87% 44.64% -2.9 16
1971-10-17 Aalborg D 2-2 1333 1375 41.55% 20.89% 37.57% -0.0 19
1971-10-17 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1375 1333 37.57% 20.89% 41.55% +0.1 12
1971-10-17 Bronshoj W 3-2 1376 1344 51.35% 20.61% 28.04% +2.2 19
1971-10-17 @ Randers L 2-3 1344 1376 28.04% 20.61% 51.35% -2.2 16
1971-10-17 Hvidovre L 2-3 1458 1416 52.65% 20.52% 26.83% -3.7 28
1971-10-17 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1416 1458 26.83% 20.52% 52.65% +3.7 22
1971-10-18 B 1901 W 1-0 1393 1399 46.47% 20.83% 32.70% +2.8 16
1971-10-18 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1399 1393 32.70% 20.83% 46.47% -2.8 20
1971-10-18 Frem L 1-3 1396 1394 47.61% 20.79% 31.60% -6.2 17
1971-10-18 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1394 1396 31.60% 20.79% 47.61% +6.2 21
1971-10-23 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1400 1421 44.42% 20.87% 34.70% -0.1 22
1971-10-23 @ Frem D 2-2 1421 1400 34.70% 20.87% 44.42% +0.1 23
1971-10-24 Randers W 2-1 1375 1378 46.80% 20.82% 32.38% +2.6 14
1971-10-24 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1378 1375 32.38% 20.82% 46.80% -2.6 19
1971-10-24 Koge BK L 2-3 1396 1333 55.18% 20.31% 24.51% -3.9 20
1971-10-24 @ B 1901 W 3-2 1333 1396 24.51% 20.31% 55.18% +3.9 21
1971-10-24 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1342 1396 39.80% 20.87% 39.33% +3.1 18
1971-10-24 @ Bronshoj L 1-2 1396 1342 39.33% 20.87% 39.80% -3.1 16
1971-10-24 Vejle BK W 2-1 1434 1455 44.49% 20.87% 34.64% +2.8 18
1971-10-24 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1455 1434 34.64% 20.87% 44.49% -2.8 28
1971-10-24 B 1909 D 1-1 1420 1390 51.14% 20.63% 28.23% -0.4 23
1971-10-24 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1390 1420 28.23% 20.63% 51.14% +0.4 18
1971-10-30 B 1901 W 4-1 1345 1392 40.76% 20.88% 38.36% +7.4 20
1971-10-30 @ Bronshoj L 1-4 1392 1345 38.36% 20.88% 40.76% -7.4 20
1971-10-31 Koge BK D 2-2 1393 1337 54.33% 20.39% 25.28% -0.4 17
1971-10-31 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1337 1393 25.28% 20.39% 54.33% +0.4 22
1971-10-31 Hvidovre D 1-1 1437 1420 49.53% 20.71% 29.76% -0.3 19
1971-10-31 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1420 1437 29.76% 20.71% 49.53% +0.4 24
1971-10-31 Aalborg L 0-3 1421 1378 52.83% 20.51% 26.66% -11.5 23
1971-10-31 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-0 1378 1421 26.66% 20.51% 52.83% +11.5 16
1971-10-31 Frem W 3-1 1376 1400 43.96% 20.88% 35.16% +4.9 21
1971-10-31 @ Randers L 1-3 1400 1376 35.16% 20.88% 43.96% -4.9 22
1971-10-31 B 1909 D 1-1 1452 1391 54.98% 20.33% 24.69% -0.5 29
1971-10-31 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1391 1452 24.69% 20.33% 54.98% +0.6 19
1971-11-07 AB Gladsaxe W 4-2 1389 1393 46.76% 20.82% 32.42% +4.1 18
1971-11-07 @ Aalborg L 2-4 1393 1389 32.42% 20.82% 46.76% -4.1 17
1971-11-07 B 1903 L 3-4 1385 1437 40.11% 20.87% 39.02% -2.9 20
1971-11-07 @ B 1901 W 4-3 1437 1385 39.02% 20.87% 40.11% +2.9 21
1971-11-07 Bronshoj L 2-5 1391 1353 52.20% 20.56% 27.24% -8.3 19
1971-11-07 @ B 1909 W 5-2 1353 1391 27.24% 20.56% 52.20% +8.3 22
1971-11-07 Vejle BK W 1-0 1395 1451 39.43% 20.86% 39.70% +3.3 24
1971-11-07 @ Frem L 0-1 1451 1395 39.70% 20.86% 39.43% -3.3 29
1971-11-07 Randers L 2-3 1420 1381 52.35% 20.55% 27.11% -3.7 24
1971-11-07 @ Hvidovre W 3-2 1381 1420 27.11% 20.55% 52.35% +3.7 23
1971-11-07 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1338 1410 37.24% 20.82% 41.95% +0.1 23
1971-11-07 @ Koge BK D 1-1 1410 1338 41.95% 20.82% 37.24% -0.1 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1971-06-13 19.52% Koge BK 1320 4 @ B 1903 1435 3
2 1971-08-29 19.60% Koge BK 1331 2 @ Vejle BK 1445 1
3 1971-05-09 22.53% Koge BK 1323 2 @ B 1909 1405 1
4 1971-04-25 22.71% Koge BK 1313 1 @ Aalborg 1394 0
5 1971-10-24 24.51% Koge BK 1333 3 @ B 1901 1396 2
6 1971-10-03 25.71% AB Gladsaxe 1389 2 @ B 1903 1441 1
7 1971-04-03 26.47% Bronshoj 1374 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1419 0
8 1971-10-03 26.60% Bronshoj 1338 3 @ Aalborg 1382 1
9 1971-10-31 26.66% Aalborg 1378 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1421 0
10 1971-04-17 26.72% Frem 1396 2 @ B 1903 1439 1
11 1971-10-17 26.83% Hvidovre 1416 3 @ Vejle BK 1458 2
12 1971-11-07 27.11% Randers 1381 3 @ Hvidovre 1420 2
13 1971-11-07 27.24% Bronshoj 1353 5 @ B 1909 1391 2
14 1971-09-19 27.69% Aalborg 1375 3 @ B 1901 1410 1
15 1971-04-04 27.99% KB Copenhagen 1407 3 @ B 1903 1439 2
16 1971-04-04 28.38% B 1909 1385 3 @ Aalborg 1414 0
17 1971-06-06 28.44% Bronshoj 1370 2 @ B 1901 1398 1
18 1971-05-02 29.03% B 1909 1396 4 @ KB Copenhagen 1420 1
19 1971-06-01 29.18% Frem 1399 4 @ Vejle BK 1421 2
20 1971-06-01 29.29% Aalborg 1381 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1402 1
21 1971-06-01 30.82% B 1901 1392 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1400 1
22 1971-09-13 30.86% B 1901 1406 3 @ Hvidovre 1415 2
23 1971-05-23 31.31% Randers 1401 4 @ KB Copenhagen 1406 2
24 1971-10-18 31.60% Frem 1394 3 @ B 1909 1396 1
25 1971-08-31 31.75% B 1901 1403 3 @ Frem 1404 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1971-04-18 14.71 B 1901 5 1377 38.66% @ Koge BK 0 1328 40.46% 20.88%
2 1971-08-22 13.95 Vejle BK 5 1431 41.29% @ Bronshoj 0 1363 37.88% 20.83%
3 1971-08-19 12.53 @ KB Copenhagen 5 1395 46.02% AB Gladsaxe 0 1404 33.14% 20.84%
4 1971-10-31 11.46 Aalborg 3 1378 26.66% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1421 52.83% 20.51%
5 1971-04-04 11.11 B 1909 3 1385 28.38% @ Aalborg 0 1414 50.99% 20.64%
6 1971-06-13 10.88 B 1909 5 1390 34.04% @ Bronshoj 1 1374 45.10% 20.86%
7 1971-09-12 10.01 @ KB Copenhagen 5 1407 54.19% Bronshoj 0 1353 25.41% 20.40%
8 1971-09-12 9.26 Vejle BK 3 1440 37.97% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1396 41.15% 20.88%
9 1971-05-02 9.25 B 1909 4 1396 29.03% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1420 50.29% 20.68%
10 1971-08-15 8.80 @ B 1909 4 1402 51.52% Aalborg 0 1369 27.88% 20.60%
11 1971-06-06 8.56 KB Copenhagen 4 1394 33.21% @ Aalborg 1 1384 45.94% 20.84%
12 1971-09-12 8.43 @ Aalborg 3 1367 42.57% Frem 0 1401 36.54% 20.89%
13 1971-05-02 8.38 @ Hvidovre 4 1413 53.17% Bronshoj 0 1367 26.34% 20.48%
14 1971-06-06 8.36 @ Frem 5 1405 46.58% Randers 1 1410 32.59% 20.83%
15 1971-11-07 8.28 Bronshoj 5 1353 27.24% @ B 1909 2 1391 52.20% 20.56%
16 1971-08-22 7.97 @ B 1901 3 1395 45.03% B 1909 0 1411 34.11% 20.86%
17 1971-10-30 7.39 @ Bronshoj 4 1345 40.76% B 1901 1 1392 38.36% 20.88%
18 1971-05-23 6.86 Vejle BK 2 1414 34.23% @ B 1909 0 1397 44.90% 20.86%
19 1971-10-03 6.84 Bronshoj 3 1338 26.60% @ Aalborg 1 1382 52.89% 20.51%
20 1971-09-19 6.71 Aalborg 3 1375 27.69% @ B 1901 1 1410 51.72% 20.59%
21 1971-05-02 6.58 @ Randers 4 1396 45.92% AB Gladsaxe 1 1406 33.24% 20.84%
22 1971-08-11 6.57 @ B 1909 4 1396 45.96% KB Copenhagen 1 1405 33.19% 20.84%
23 1971-08-15 6.47 @ Koge BK 2 1324 37.26% Randers 0 1396 41.92% 20.82%
24 1971-06-01 6.33 B 1901 3 1392 30.82% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1400 48.42% 20.76%
25 1971-10-18 6.24 Frem 3 1394 31.60% @ B 1909 1 1396 47.61% 20.79%