1970 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

B 1903

27 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1969

Relegated

Horsens

15 pts

B 1913 · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

B 1901

3.73 points above expected

23 points · 19.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Horsens

5.13 points below expected

15 points · 20.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 B 1903 Champion 22 11 5 6 27 56 36 +20 27.14 -0.14
2 AB Gladsaxe 22 10 7 5 27 46 30 +16 23.38 +3.62
3 Hvidovre 22 11 4 7 26 30 23 +7 23.04 +2.96
4 Vejle BK 22 10 3 9 23 45 39 +6 21.40 +1.60
5 B 1901 22 8 7 7 23 31 35 -4 19.27 +3.73
6 Frem 22 8 6 8 22 32 35 -3 20.57 +1.43
7 Bronshoj 22 8 6 8 22 28 35 -7 19.66 +2.34
8 Aalborg 22 9 3 10 21 34 29 +5 23.87 -2.87
9 Randers 22 8 5 9 21 30 36 -6 21.84 -0.84
10 KB Copenhagen 22 6 7 9 19 24 26 -2 23.92 -4.92
11 B 1913 Relegated 22 6 6 10 18 24 37 -13 19.80 -1.80
12 Horsens Relegated 22 4 7 11 15 20 39 -19 20.13 -5.13

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
B 1903 1572 27 27.14 -0.14 52.7% 13 21 25 27 30 33 40
AB Gladsaxe 1500 27 23.38 +3.62 85.1% 9 17 21 23 26 30 38
Aalborg 1471 21 23.87 -2.87 27.3% 9 17 21 24 27 30 38
Hvidovre 1459 26 23.04 +2.96 80.9% 8 17 20 23 26 30 39
KB Copenhagen 1451 19 23.92 -4.92 13.0% 10 17 21 24 27 30 38
Vejle BK 1439 23 21.40 +1.60 70.5% 6 15 19 21 24 28 37
Randers 1398 21 21.84 -0.84 46.2% 8 15 19 22 24 28 36
Frem 1395 22 20.57 +1.43 68.9% 7 14 18 20 23 27 35
B 1901 1365 23 19.27 +3.73 85.9% 5 13 17 19 22 26 33
Bronshoj 1344 22 19.66 +2.34 76.4% 4 13 17 20 22 26 35
B 1913 1342 18 19.80 -1.80 37.3% 5 13 17 20 22 26 34
Horsens 1327 15 20.13 -5.13 11.9% 6 14 17 20 23 27 36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL B1 B1 B1 BRO FRE HOR HVI KC RAN VB
AB Gladsaxe
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.26
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
3.20
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
3.05
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.43
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.98
Aalborg
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.22
0-0-2
2.38
0-0-2
3.32
1-0-1
3.37
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
2.94
2-0-0
2.67
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.97
B 1901
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.81
1-1-0
2.69
0-2-0
2.64
2-0-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.33
1-1-0
2.24
0-1-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.28
B 1903
0-1-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.67
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.65
0-2-0
3.57
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
3.34
0-0-2
3.32
2-0-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.43
B 1913
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
2.16
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
1.71
0-1-1
2.89
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.71
Bronshoj
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
2.11
0-2-0
2.83
0-1-1
1.83
1-1-0
2.58
1-0-1
2.61
0-2-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.31
2-0-0
2.44
1-0-1
2.36
Frem
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
2.37
0-0-2
3.00
0-2-0
1.91
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.09
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
2.38
Horsens
0-1-1
2.15
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.74
1-0-1
1.84
1-0-1
2.79
0-2-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.12
0-0-2
2.65
0-1-1
2.99
Hvidovre
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.53
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-2
3.15
KB Copenhagen
0-1-1
3.05
0-0-2
2.80
0-1-1
3.23
2-0-0
2.15
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
3.16
0-1-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
2.72
0-2-0
2.92
0-0-2
3.04
Randers
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.23
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
3.03
2-0-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.76
0-2-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.73
Vejle BK
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
3.20
0-1-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.09
1-1-0
2.48
2-0-0
2.33
2-0-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.75

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.63 +2.7
Allowed 0.11 -2.3
Differential 0.80 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%7.58%4.92%3.41%1.52%0.38%25.38%
17.58%7.58%5.68%5.30%1.52%1.52%29.17%
24.92%5.68%8.33%4.17%1.14%24.24%
33.41%5.30%4.17%1.52%14.39%
41.52%1.52%1.14%0.38%4.55%
5+0.38%1.52%0.38%2.27%
Total25.38%29.17%24.24%14.39%4.55%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 1.88
CV 0.86 0.86
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.36 +0.73
SD 1.48 1.22 2.03
CV 0.71 0.89
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%4.55%31.82%
14.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
29.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.32 +0.23
SD 1.50 1.17 2.00
CV 0.97 0.89
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
29.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.18
SD 1.40 1.44 2.17
CV 1.00 0.90
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
24.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%36.36%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.64 +0.91
SD 1.65 1.18 2.09
CV 0.65 0.72
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%40.91%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%27.27%9.09%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.68 -0.59
SD 1.15 1.49 1.82
CV 1.06 0.89
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
118.18%18.18%9.09%45.45%
29.09%9.09%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%40.91%22.73%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.59 -0.32
SD 1.08 1.37 1.49
CV 0.85 0.86
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%40.91%
29.09%13.64%22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%36.36%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.59 -0.14
SD 1.10 1.37 1.98
CV 0.76 0.86
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%22.73%9.09%9.09%4.55%54.55%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
3
4
5+
Total13.64%40.91%18.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.77 -0.86
SD 0.68 1.45 1.61
CV 0.75 0.82
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
118.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
4
5+
Total40.91%22.73%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.05 +0.32
SD 1.14 1.05 1.55
CV 0.83 1.00
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%31.82%
19.09%9.09%18.18%36.36%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total36.36%22.73%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.18 -0.09
SD 0.97 1.14 1.19
CV 0.89 0.96
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total36.36%9.09%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.64 -0.27
SD 1.09 1.62 1.98
CV 0.80 0.99
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
213.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
413.64%4.55%18.18%
5+
Total9.09%36.36%27.27%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.77 +0.27
SD 1.33 1.07 2.03
CV 0.65 0.60
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1901 23 19.27 +3.73
2 AB Gladsaxe 27 23.38 +3.62
3 Hvidovre 26 23.04 +2.96
4 Bronshoj 22 19.66 +2.34
5 Vejle BK 23 21.40 +1.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Horsens 15 20.13 -5.13
2 KB Copenhagen 19 23.92 -4.92
3 Aalborg 21 23.87 -2.87
4 B 1913 18 19.80 -1.80
5 Randers 21 21.84 -0.84

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vejle BK 5 May 21 – Jun 22 1 in 576
2 KB Copenhagen 4 Jun 14 – Aug 23 1 in 86
3 B 1903 6 Sep 26 – Nov 1 1 in 38
4 Randers 3 Sep 30 – Oct 11 1 in 37
5 AB Gladsaxe 3 Apr 30 – May 11 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KB Copenhagen 5 Apr 4 – May 3 1 in 503
2 Horsens 6 Jun 14 – Aug 30 1 in 386
3 Vejle BK 5 Apr 4 – May 4 1 in 79
4 Randers 4 Aug 24 – Sep 20 1 in 50
5 Aalborg 3 Jun 7 – Jun 22 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bronshoj 8 Apr 26 – Jun 14 1 in 71
2 Vejle BK 6 May 11 – Jun 22 1 in 36
3 KB Copenhagen 8 Jun 7 – Sep 20 1 in 33
4 Frem 5 Apr 4 – May 10 1 in 21
5 Hvidovre 8 Aug 24 – Oct 18 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Horsens 13 May 11 – Sep 27 1 in 312
2 KB Copenhagen 6 Sep 27 – Nov 1 1 in 26
3 B 1903 4 May 3 – May 23 1 in 12
4 B 1913 6 Sep 27 – Nov 1 1 in 10
5 Vejle BK 6 Apr 4 – May 11 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
B 190341.70%20.31%11.64%8.52%5.90%4.05%2.75%1.99%1.59%0.88%0.44%0.23%
AB Gladsaxe10.90%12.72%12.99%11.35%10.55%9.35%8.29%6.93%5.96%4.95%3.74%2.27%
Hvidovre8.23%11.56%12.11%11.34%10.15%9.46%8.93%8.19%6.99%5.60%4.63%2.81%
Vejle BK3.90%6.56%7.94%8.83%9.17%9.89%10.27%10.14%9.69%9.04%8.01%6.56%
B 19011.17%2.37%3.37%4.97%6.15%7.17%8.02%9.81%11.00%13.08%14.28%18.61%
Frem2.32%4.49%5.70%7.01%7.75%8.54%9.43%10.11%11.00%11.36%11.61%10.68%
Bronshoj1.52%2.66%3.91%5.25%6.36%7.27%8.97%9.90%11.16%12.42%14.31%16.27%
Aalborg11.72%13.92%13.39%11.72%10.12%9.07%7.92%7.16%5.44%4.41%3.27%1.86%
Randers4.29%6.44%7.87%9.37%10.15%10.17%9.65%9.32%9.17%8.92%8.16%6.49%
KB Copenhagen11.31%13.13%12.50%11.17%11.03%9.64%8.58%6.51%5.43%4.85%3.53%2.32%
B 19131.34%2.71%4.47%4.74%6.46%7.60%8.26%9.55%11.78%12.19%14.21%16.69%
Horsens1.60%3.13%4.11%5.73%6.21%7.79%8.93%10.39%10.79%12.30%13.81%15.21%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.33%
Slight Edge
41.67%25.00%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 29.02 Elo pts.
190 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
B 1903, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.13 * Some Luck: 3.13 to 4.69 * Lucky: 4.69 to 6.26 * Wild Swing: 6.26 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.19 * Close: 2.19 to 3.28 * Off: 3.28 to 4.38 * Way Off: 4.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.36 * A Surprise: 1.36 to 2.18 * Several Surprises: 2.18 to 3 * Many Surprises: 3 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.01 points
As Expected
03.9110
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.33
Off
02.746
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
85.87%
B 1901
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
11.93%
Horsens
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.77
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.59
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
-0.07
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
37%
Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.16
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.19
Overconfident
01.002.05395
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.146
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
B 1903 99.33% 0.67%
Aalborg 94.87% 5.13%
KB Copenhagen 94.15% 5.85%
AB Gladsaxe 93.99% 6.01%
Hvidovre 92.56% 7.44%
Vejle BK 85.43% 14.57%
Randers 85.35% 14.65%
Frem 77.71% 22.29%
Horsens 70.98% 29.02%
Bronshoj 69.42% 30.58%
B 1913 69.10% 30.90%
B 1901 67.11% 32.89%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1970-04-04 Frem L 1-2 1485 1397 53.47% 25.86% 20.67% -10.5 0
1970-04-04 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1397 1485 20.67% 25.86% 53.47% +10.5 2
1970-04-04 Bronshoj L 1-2 1398 1363 47.24% 26.31% 26.45% -9.4 0
1970-04-04 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1363 1398 26.45% 26.31% 47.24% +9.4 2
1970-04-18 AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1475 1415 50.32% 26.13% 23.55% -19.8 0
1970-04-18 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1415 1475 23.55% 26.13% 50.32% +19.8 2
1970-04-19 Randers D 2-2 1468 1426 48.20% 26.26% 25.54% -0.8 1
1970-04-19 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1426 1468 25.54% 26.26% 48.20% +0.8 1
1970-04-19 Vejle BK W 2-0 1357 1388 38.53% 26.51% 34.96% +14.8 2
1970-04-19 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1388 1357 34.96% 26.51% 38.53% -14.8 0
1970-04-19 B 1903 W 3-1 1400 1508 28.08% 26.20% 45.71% +15.8 2
1970-04-19 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1508 1400 45.71% 26.20% 28.08% -15.8 0
1970-04-19 Frem D 1-1 1421 1407 44.54% 26.42% 29.04% -0.7 1
1970-04-19 @ Horsens D 1-1 1407 1421 29.04% 26.42% 44.54% +0.7 3
1970-04-19 Bronshoj W 1-0 1425 1373 49.38% 26.19% 24.43% +6.0 2
1970-04-19 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1373 1425 24.43% 26.19% 49.38% -6.0 2
1970-04-23 Vejle BK W 4-2 1416 1374 48.17% 26.27% 25.56% +9.0 4
1970-04-23 @ B 1913 L 2-4 1374 1416 25.56% 26.27% 48.17% -9.0 0
1970-04-25 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1408 1434 39.19% 26.51% 34.30% -0.2 4
1970-04-25 @ Frem D 1-1 1434 1408 34.30% 26.51% 39.19% +0.2 3
1970-04-26 B 1913 W 3-1 1367 1425 34.73% 26.47% 38.80% +13.9 4
1970-04-26 @ Bronshoj L 1-3 1425 1367 38.80% 26.47% 34.73% -13.9 4
1970-04-26 Aalborg W 1-0 1431 1467 37.75% 26.51% 35.74% +8.0 4
1970-04-26 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1467 1431 35.74% 26.51% 37.75% -8.0 1
1970-04-26 Horsens L 1-2 1455 1420 47.28% 26.31% 26.41% -9.4 0
1970-04-26 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1420 1455 26.41% 26.31% 47.28% +9.4 3
1970-04-26 B 1901 D 3-3 1427 1372 49.65% 26.18% 24.18% -0.7 2
1970-04-26 @ Randers D 3-3 1372 1427 24.18% 26.18% 49.65% +0.7 3
1970-04-26 B 1903 L 1-3 1365 1493 25.78% 26.04% 48.18% -10.1 0
1970-04-26 @ Vejle BK W 3-1 1493 1365 48.18% 26.04% 25.78% +10.1 2
1970-04-30 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1381 1445 33.80% 26.45% 39.76% +8.6 6
1970-04-30 @ Bronshoj L 0-1 1445 1381 39.76% 26.45% 33.80% -8.7 0
1970-04-30 AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1439 1435 43.36% 26.45% 30.19% -17.5 4
1970-04-30 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1435 1439 30.19% 26.45% 43.36% +17.5 5
1970-04-30 B 1913 W 3-0 1426 1411 44.78% 26.41% 28.81% +18.6 4
1970-04-30 @ Randers L 0-3 1411 1426 28.81% 26.41% 44.78% -18.6 4
1970-05-03 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1459 1437 45.76% 26.38% 27.86% +5.9 3
1970-05-03 @ Aalborg L 2-3 1437 1459 27.86% 26.38% 45.76% -5.9 0
1970-05-03 Bronshoj D 1-1 1373 1389 40.57% 26.50% 32.93% -0.3 4
1970-05-03 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1389 1373 32.93% 26.50% 40.57% +0.3 7
1970-05-03 Frem D 2-2 1503 1408 54.20% 25.78% 20.02% -1.2 3
1970-05-03 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1408 1503 20.02% 25.78% 54.20% +1.2 5
1970-05-03 Hvidovre D 1-1 1429 1421 43.86% 26.44% 29.70% -0.6 4
1970-05-03 @ Horsens D 1-1 1421 1429 29.70% 26.44% 43.86% +0.6 5
1970-05-04 B 1913 W 4-0 1452 1392 50.30% 26.13% 23.57% +20.8 7
1970-05-04 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1392 1452 23.57% 26.13% 50.30% -20.8 4
1970-05-04 Vejle BK W 2-1 1444 1354 53.68% 25.84% 20.49% +4.9 6
1970-05-04 @ Randers L 1-2 1354 1444 20.49% 25.84% 53.68% -4.9 0
1970-05-07 B 1903 W 2-1 1429 1502 32.67% 26.42% 40.92% +8.3 6
1970-05-07 @ Horsens L 1-2 1502 1429 40.92% 26.42% 32.67% -8.3 3
1970-05-09 Hvidovre W 2-0 1431 1422 43.96% 26.44% 29.60% +13.1 2
1970-05-09 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1422 1431 29.60% 26.44% 43.96% -13.1 5
1970-05-10 B 1901 D 0-0 1371 1373 42.63% 26.47% 30.90% -0.6 5
1970-05-10 @ B 1913 D 0-0 1373 1371 30.90% 26.47% 42.63% +0.6 5
1970-05-10 Randers W 2-1 1390 1449 34.48% 26.46% 39.06% +8.1 9
1970-05-10 @ Bronshoj L 1-2 1449 1390 39.06% 26.46% 34.48% -8.1 6
1970-05-10 Aalborg W 1-0 1409 1465 34.96% 26.47% 38.57% +8.5 7
1970-05-10 @ Frem L 0-1 1465 1409 38.57% 26.47% 34.96% -8.5 3
1970-05-11 B 1903 W 4-2 1473 1493 40.00% 26.50% 33.49% +11.1 9
1970-05-11 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-4 1493 1473 33.49% 26.50% 40.00% -11.1 3
1970-05-11 Horsens D 1-1 1350 1437 30.74% 26.34% 42.92% +0.5 1
1970-05-11 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1437 1350 42.92% 26.34% 30.74% -0.5 7
1970-05-21 Vejle BK L 1-2 1409 1350 50.17% 26.14% 23.69% -9.9 5
1970-05-21 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1350 1409 23.69% 26.14% 50.17% +9.9 3
1970-05-23 Bronshoj D 2-2 1482 1398 53.07% 25.90% 21.04% -1.1 4
1970-05-23 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1398 1482 21.04% 25.90% 53.07% +1.1 10
1970-05-24 B 1913 L 0-2 1457 1371 53.23% 25.88% 20.89% -20.9 3
1970-05-24 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1371 1457 20.89% 25.88% 53.23% +20.9 7
1970-05-24 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1373 1444 32.98% 26.42% 40.59% +8.8 7
1970-05-24 @ B 1901 L 0-1 1444 1373 40.59% 26.42% 32.98% -8.8 2
1970-05-24 Randers L 0-1 1418 1441 39.54% 26.51% 33.95% -8.6 7
1970-05-24 @ Frem W 1-0 1441 1418 33.95% 26.51% 39.54% +8.6 8
1970-05-24 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1437 1484 36.19% 26.49% 37.31% +0.0 8
1970-05-24 @ Horsens D 2-2 1484 1437 37.31% 26.49% 36.19% -0.0 10
1970-05-27 B 1901 W 3-0 1436 1382 49.59% 26.18% 24.23% +16.2 5
1970-05-27 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1382 1436 24.23% 26.18% 49.59% -16.2 7
1970-05-28 Horsens W 2-1 1392 1437 36.56% 26.50% 36.94% +7.7 9
1970-05-28 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1437 1392 36.94% 26.50% 36.56% -7.7 8
1970-05-30 B 1903 L 0-1 1366 1481 27.29% 26.15% 46.56% -6.5 7
1970-05-30 @ B 1901 W 1-0 1481 1366 46.56% 26.15% 27.29% +6.5 6
1970-05-30 Frem W 1-0 1399 1409 41.44% 26.49% 32.07% +7.4 12
1970-05-30 @ Bronshoj L 0-1 1409 1399 32.07% 26.49% 41.44% -7.4 7
1970-05-31 Hvidovre L 0-2 1450 1399 49.25% 26.20% 24.55% -19.5 8
1970-05-31 @ Randers W 2-0 1399 1450 24.55% 26.20% 49.25% +19.5 7
1970-05-31 KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1360 1435 32.38% 26.41% 41.21% +13.0 5
1970-05-31 @ Vejle BK L 2-4 1435 1360 41.21% 26.41% 32.38% -13.0 2
1970-06-01 Aalborg L 0-3 1484 1452 46.91% 26.33% 26.76% -27.1 10
1970-06-01 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1452 1484 26.76% 26.33% 46.91% +27.1 7
1970-06-05 Hvidovre W 3-2 1401 1418 40.49% 26.50% 33.01% +6.7 9
1970-06-05 @ Frem L 2-3 1418 1401 33.01% 26.50% 40.49% -6.7 7
1970-06-07 B 1903 L 1-3 1479 1488 41.68% 26.49% 31.84% -14.7 7
1970-06-07 @ Aalborg W 3-1 1488 1479 31.84% 26.49% 41.68% +14.7 8
1970-06-07 Vejle BK L 1-4 1457 1373 53.00% 25.90% 21.09% -25.5 10
1970-06-07 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1373 1457 21.09% 25.90% 53.00% +25.5 7
1970-06-07 Bronshoj D 1-1 1429 1406 45.75% 26.38% 27.87% -0.8 9
1970-06-07 @ Horsens D 1-1 1406 1429 27.87% 26.38% 45.75% +0.8 13
1970-06-07 Randers D 0-0 1422 1430 41.66% 26.49% 31.86% -0.5 3
1970-06-07 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1430 1422 31.86% 26.49% 41.66% +0.5 9
1970-06-09 B 1901 L 1-3 1408 1359 49.01% 26.22% 24.77% -16.8 9
1970-06-09 @ Frem W 3-1 1359 1408 24.77% 26.22% 49.01% +16.8 9
1970-06-10 B 1913 D 0-0 1412 1399 44.41% 26.43% 29.16% -0.8 8
1970-06-10 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1399 1412 29.16% 26.43% 44.41% +0.8 10
1970-06-13 Hvidovre L 2-3 1502 1411 53.81% 25.82% 20.37% -10.0 8
1970-06-13 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1411 1502 20.37% 25.82% 53.81% +10.0 10
1970-06-13 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1431 1431 42.74% 26.47% 30.79% -0.6 10
1970-06-13 @ Randers D 0-0 1431 1431 30.79% 26.47% 42.74% +0.6 11
1970-06-14 Horsens W 2-1 1376 1428 35.55% 26.48% 37.96% +7.9 11
1970-06-14 @ B 1901 L 1-2 1428 1376 37.96% 26.48% 35.55% -7.9 9
1970-06-14 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1400 1422 39.88% 26.50% 33.61% -7.8 10
1970-06-14 @ B 1913 W 3-2 1422 1400 33.61% 26.50% 39.88% +7.8 5
1970-06-14 Aalborg W 1-0 1407 1465 34.77% 26.47% 38.77% +8.5 15
1970-06-14 @ Bronshoj L 0-1 1465 1407 38.77% 26.47% 34.77% -8.5 7
1970-06-16 Randers W 4-0 1492 1430 50.53% 26.11% 23.35% +20.6 10
1970-06-16 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1430 1492 23.35% 26.11% 50.53% -20.6 10
1970-06-17 B 1901 W 3-0 1421 1384 47.55% 26.30% 26.15% +17.3 12
1970-06-17 @ Hvidovre L 0-3 1384 1421 26.15% 26.30% 47.55% -17.3 11
1970-06-17 Frem W 2-1 1398 1391 43.72% 26.45% 29.83% +6.6 9
1970-06-17 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1391 1398 29.83% 26.45% 43.72% -6.6 9
1970-06-21 B 1913 W 3-1 1385 1392 41.77% 26.49% 31.74% +12.0 11
1970-06-21 @ Frem L 1-3 1392 1385 31.74% 26.49% 41.77% -12.0 10
1970-06-22 Vejle BK L 1-4 1456 1405 49.26% 26.20% 24.54% -23.9 7
1970-06-22 @ Aalborg W 4-1 1405 1456 24.54% 26.20% 49.26% +23.9 11
1970-06-22 B 1901 L 2-3 1432 1367 50.92% 26.08% 23.00% -9.5 11
1970-06-22 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1367 1432 23.00% 26.08% 50.92% +9.5 13
1970-06-22 Bronshoj W 4-1 1422 1416 43.71% 26.45% 29.85% +16.1 13
1970-06-22 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-4 1416 1422 29.85% 26.45% 43.71% -16.1 15
1970-06-22 Randers L 0-2 1420 1410 44.17% 26.43% 29.39% -17.8 9
1970-06-22 @ Horsens W 2-0 1410 1420 29.39% 26.43% 44.17% +17.8 12
1970-06-22 B 1903 W 1-0 1429 1513 31.26% 26.37% 42.38% +9.1 7
1970-06-22 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1513 1429 42.38% 26.37% 31.26% -9.1 10
1970-08-09 Aalborg L 0-1 1402 1432 38.69% 26.51% 34.80% -8.5 9
1970-08-09 @ Horsens W 1-0 1432 1402 34.80% 26.51% 38.69% +8.5 9
1970-08-13 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1380 1439 34.70% 26.47% 38.83% +0.2 11
1970-08-13 @ B 1913 D 0-0 1439 1380 38.83% 26.47% 34.70% -0.2 14
1970-08-15 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1504 1438 50.93% 26.08% 22.99% -10.6 10
1970-08-15 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1438 1504 22.99% 26.08% 50.93% +10.6 9
1970-08-16 Frem W 3-1 1376 1397 39.98% 26.50% 33.51% +12.5 15
1970-08-16 @ B 1901 L 1-3 1397 1376 33.51% 26.50% 39.98% -12.5 11
1970-08-16 Hvidovre W 1-0 1399 1438 37.42% 26.50% 36.07% +8.1 17
1970-08-16 @ Bronshoj L 0-1 1438 1399 36.07% 26.50% 37.42% -8.0 12
1970-08-17 Horsens W 1-0 1427 1394 47.13% 26.32% 26.55% +6.4 14
1970-08-17 @ Randers L 0-1 1394 1427 26.55% 26.32% 47.13% -6.4 9
1970-08-19 Aalborg L 1-3 1429 1441 41.19% 26.49% 32.32% -14.5 11
1970-08-19 @ Vejle BK W 3-1 1441 1429 32.32% 26.49% 41.19% +14.5 11
1970-08-22 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1493 1438 49.70% 26.17% 24.13% -0.9 11
1970-08-22 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1438 1493 24.13% 26.17% 49.70% +0.9 15
1970-08-23 Aalborg D 0-0 1389 1455 33.52% 26.44% 40.04% +0.3 16
1970-08-23 @ B 1901 D 0-0 1455 1389 40.04% 26.44% 33.52% -0.3 12
1970-08-23 Bronshoj W 2-0 1449 1407 48.12% 26.27% 25.61% +11.7 11
1970-08-23 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1407 1449 25.61% 26.27% 48.12% -11.7 17
1970-08-24 Randers W 2-1 1381 1434 35.38% 26.48% 38.14% +7.9 13
1970-08-24 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1434 1381 38.14% 26.48% 35.38% -7.9 14
1970-08-24 Frem W 2-0 1430 1384 48.63% 26.24% 25.13% +11.5 14
1970-08-24 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1384 1430 25.13% 26.24% 48.63% -11.5 11
1970-08-26 Vejle BK L 0-3 1388 1414 39.12% 26.51% 34.37% -23.4 9
1970-08-26 @ Horsens W 3-0 1414 1388 34.37% 26.51% 39.12% +23.4 13
1970-08-30 Hvidovre D 2-2 1455 1442 44.55% 26.42% 29.03% -0.5 13
1970-08-30 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1442 1455 29.03% 26.42% 44.55% +0.5 15
1970-08-30 B 1901 D 2-2 1396 1389 43.69% 26.45% 29.86% -0.5 18
1970-08-30 @ Bronshoj D 2-2 1389 1396 29.86% 26.45% 43.69% +0.5 17
1970-08-30 Horsens W 4-0 1373 1364 43.95% 26.44% 29.61% +24.8 13
1970-08-30 @ Frem L 0-4 1364 1373 29.61% 26.44% 43.95% -24.8 9
1970-08-30 B 1903 L 1-6 1426 1492 33.57% 26.44% 39.99% -27.9 14
1970-08-30 @ Randers W 6-1 1492 1426 39.99% 26.44% 33.57% +27.9 13
1970-08-31 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1439 1461 39.86% 26.51% 33.64% -0.3 16
1970-08-31 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1461 1439 33.64% 26.51% 39.86% +0.3 12
1970-08-31 B 1913 W 3-0 1438 1389 49.04% 26.22% 24.75% +16.5 15
1970-08-31 @ Vejle BK L 0-3 1389 1438 24.75% 26.22% 49.04% -16.5 13
1970-09-05 B 1903 D 2-2 1398 1520 26.44% 26.09% 47.46% +0.7 14
1970-09-05 @ Frem D 2-2 1520 1398 47.46% 26.09% 26.44% -0.7 14
1970-09-06 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1454 1439 44.84% 26.41% 28.75% -15.6 13
1970-09-06 @ Aalborg W 3-1 1439 1454 28.75% 26.41% 44.84% +15.6 18
1970-09-06 Vejle BK L 1-4 1395 1454 34.57% 26.46% 38.97% -18.0 18
1970-09-06 @ Bronshoj W 4-1 1454 1395 38.97% 26.46% 34.57% +18.0 17
1970-09-06 B 1901 D 0-0 1339 1389 35.81% 26.49% 37.71% +0.1 10
1970-09-06 @ Horsens D 0-0 1389 1339 37.71% 26.49% 35.81% -0.1 18
1970-09-06 Randers W 3-1 1442 1398 48.42% 26.25% 25.33% +10.0 17
1970-09-06 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1398 1442 25.33% 26.25% 48.42% -10.0 14
1970-09-07 B 1913 D 0-0 1461 1372 53.56% 25.85% 20.59% -1.7 13
1970-09-07 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1372 1461 20.59% 25.85% 53.56% +1.7 14
1970-09-19 Hvidovre L 1-3 1389 1452 34.03% 26.45% 39.51% -12.6 18
1970-09-19 @ B 1901 W 3-1 1452 1389 39.51% 26.45% 34.03% +12.6 19
1970-09-20 Frem L 1-2 1454 1398 49.86% 26.16% 23.98% -9.8 18
1970-09-20 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1398 1454 23.98% 26.16% 49.86% +9.8 16
1970-09-20 Aalborg W 1-0 1374 1439 33.73% 26.45% 39.83% +8.7 16
1970-09-20 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1439 1374 39.83% 26.45% 33.73% -8.7 13
1970-09-20 Vejle BK D 2-2 1519 1472 48.78% 26.23% 24.99% -0.8 15
1970-09-20 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1472 1519 24.99% 26.23% 48.78% +0.8 18
1970-09-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1339 1459 26.73% 26.11% 47.15% -10.4 10
1970-09-20 @ Horsens W 3-1 1459 1339 47.15% 26.11% 26.73% +10.4 15
1970-09-20 Bronshoj L 2-3 1388 1377 44.22% 26.43% 29.35% -8.4 14
1970-09-20 @ Randers W 3-2 1377 1388 29.35% 26.43% 44.22% +8.4 20
1970-09-26 B 1901 W 4-0 1519 1377 58.83% 25.15% 16.02% +15.0 17
1970-09-26 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1377 1519 16.02% 25.15% 58.83% -15.0 18
1970-09-27 Horsens W 3-2 1445 1329 56.33% 25.52% 18.14% +4.2 20
1970-09-27 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1329 1445 18.14% 25.52% 56.33% -4.2 10
1970-09-27 Hvidovre L 0-1 1382 1465 31.41% 26.37% 42.22% -7.3 16
1970-09-27 @ B 1913 W 1-0 1465 1382 42.22% 26.37% 31.41% +7.2 21
1970-09-27 Aalborg L 1-2 1470 1430 47.87% 26.28% 25.85% -9.5 15
1970-09-27 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1430 1470 25.85% 26.28% 47.87% +9.5 15
1970-09-28 Bronshoj W 1-0 1408 1386 45.74% 26.38% 27.88% +6.6 18
1970-09-28 @ Frem L 0-1 1386 1408 27.88% 26.38% 45.74% -6.6 20
1970-09-30 Randers L 2-3 1473 1380 54.04% 25.80% 20.16% -10.0 18
1970-09-30 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1380 1473 20.16% 25.80% 54.04% +10.0 16
1970-10-03 B 1913 W 5-1 1362 1375 40.98% 26.50% 32.52% +22.2 20
1970-10-03 @ B 1901 L 1-5 1375 1362 32.52% 26.50% 40.98% -22.2 16
1970-10-04 Horsens L 0-1 1440 1325 56.25% 25.53% 18.21% -11.7 15
1970-10-04 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1325 1440 18.21% 25.53% 56.25% +11.7 12
1970-10-04 B 1903 L 4-5 1379 1534 22.90% 25.76% 51.33% -4.8 20
1970-10-04 @ Bronshoj W 5-4 1534 1379 51.33% 25.76% 22.90% +4.9 19
1970-10-04 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1472 1460 44.36% 26.43% 29.22% -0.7 22
1970-10-04 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1460 1472 29.22% 26.43% 44.36% +0.8 16
1970-10-04 Frem W 3-0 1390 1415 39.35% 26.51% 34.15% +21.2 18
1970-10-04 @ Randers L 0-3 1415 1390 34.15% 26.51% 39.35% -21.2 18
1970-10-04 AB Gladsaxe D 3-3 1463 1449 44.67% 26.42% 28.91% -0.4 19
1970-10-04 @ Vejle BK D 3-3 1449 1463 28.91% 26.42% 44.67% +0.4 21
1970-10-11 Frem W 6-1 1428 1394 47.23% 26.32% 26.46% +23.2 17
1970-10-11 @ Aalborg L 1-6 1394 1428 26.46% 26.32% 47.23% -23.2 18
1970-10-11 Hvidovre L 0-1 1449 1471 39.78% 26.51% 33.71% -8.7 21
1970-10-11 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1471 1449 33.71% 26.51% 39.78% +8.7 24
1970-10-11 Randers L 1-2 1384 1411 39.12% 26.51% 34.37% -8.1 20
1970-10-11 @ B 1901 W 2-1 1411 1384 34.37% 26.51% 39.12% +8.1 20
1970-10-11 Bronshoj D 1-1 1353 1374 39.89% 26.50% 33.60% -0.3 17
1970-10-11 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1374 1353 33.60% 26.50% 39.89% +0.3 21
1970-10-11 Horsens W 6-1 1538 1336 63.92% 24.09% 11.98% +11.7 21
1970-10-11 @ B 1903 L 1-6 1336 1538 11.98% 24.09% 63.92% -11.7 12
1970-10-11 Vejle BK L 1-2 1461 1463 42.57% 26.47% 30.96% -8.6 16
1970-10-11 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1463 1461 30.96% 26.47% 42.57% +8.6 21
1970-10-17 AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1374 1441 33.59% 26.44% 39.97% -20.9 21
1970-10-17 @ Bronshoj W 3-0 1441 1374 39.97% 26.44% 33.59% +20.9 23
1970-10-18 B 1913 W 3-2 1550 1353 63.56% 24.18% 12.26% +2.9 23
1970-10-18 @ B 1903 L 2-3 1353 1550 12.26% 24.18% 63.56% -2.9 17
1970-10-18 Horsens W 3-1 1480 1325 60.05% 24.94% 15.02% +6.4 26
1970-10-18 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1325 1480 15.02% 24.94% 60.05% -6.4 12
1970-10-18 Aalborg L 0-2 1419 1451 38.34% 26.51% 35.16% -15.9 20
1970-10-18 @ Randers W 2-0 1451 1419 35.16% 26.51% 38.34% +15.9 19
1970-10-18 B 1901 L 0-2 1471 1376 54.23% 25.78% 19.99% -21.2 21
1970-10-18 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1376 1471 19.99% 25.78% 54.23% +21.2 22
1970-10-19 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1370 1452 31.47% 26.37% 42.15% +0.5 19
1970-10-19 @ Frem D 1-1 1452 1370 42.15% 26.37% 31.47% -0.5 17
1970-10-24 B 1901 D 2-2 1452 1397 49.69% 26.17% 24.14% -0.9 18
1970-10-24 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1397 1452 24.14% 26.17% 49.69% +0.9 23
1970-10-25 Bronshoj W 2-0 1467 1354 56.12% 25.55% 18.33% +8.9 21
1970-10-25 @ Aalborg L 0-2 1354 1467 18.33% 25.55% 56.12% -8.9 21
1970-10-25 Randers W 3-2 1461 1403 50.14% 26.14% 23.72% +5.2 25
1970-10-25 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1403 1461 23.72% 26.14% 50.14% -5.2 20
1970-10-25 Vejle BK W 3-0 1371 1450 31.84% 26.39% 41.77% +24.6 21
1970-10-25 @ Frem L 0-3 1450 1371 41.77% 26.39% 31.84% -24.6 21
1970-10-25 B 1913 W 1-0 1318 1350 38.46% 26.51% 35.03% +7.9 14
1970-10-25 @ Horsens L 0-1 1350 1318 35.03% 26.51% 38.46% -7.9 17
1970-10-25 B 1903 L 0-2 1486 1553 33.53% 26.44% 40.03% -14.4 26
1970-10-25 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1553 1486 40.03% 26.44% 33.53% +14.4 25
1970-11-01 AB Gladsaxe L 0-5 1398 1467 33.24% 26.43% 40.32% -33.4 23
1970-11-01 @ B 1901 W 5-0 1467 1398 40.32% 26.43% 33.24% +33.4 27
1970-11-01 Frem D 2-2 1342 1396 35.31% 26.48% 38.21% +0.1 18
1970-11-01 @ B 1913 D 2-2 1396 1342 38.21% 26.48% 35.31% -0.1 22
1970-11-01 Horsens D 1-1 1345 1326 45.23% 26.40% 28.37% -0.7 22
1970-11-01 @ Bronshoj D 1-1 1326 1345 28.37% 26.40% 45.23% +0.8 15
1970-11-01 Aalborg W 3-2 1567 1476 53.81% 25.82% 20.37% +4.6 27
1970-11-01 @ B 1903 L 2-3 1476 1567 20.37% 25.82% 53.81% -4.6 21
1970-11-01 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1398 1451 35.38% 26.48% 38.14% +0.1 21
1970-11-01 @ Randers D 0-0 1451 1398 38.14% 26.48% 35.38% -0.1 19
1970-11-01 Hvidovre W 3-1 1425 1472 36.30% 26.49% 37.20% +13.4 23
1970-11-01 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1472 1425 37.20% 26.49% 36.30% -13.5 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1970-10-04 18.21% Horsens 1325 1 @ Aalborg 1440 0
2 1970-10-18 19.99% B 1901 1376 2 @ Vejle BK 1471 0
3 1970-09-30 20.16% Randers 1380 3 @ Vejle BK 1473 2
4 1970-06-13 20.37% Hvidovre 1411 3 @ B 1903 1502 2
5 1970-04-04 20.67% Frem 1397 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1485 1
6 1970-05-24 20.89% B 1913 1371 2 @ Aalborg 1457 0
7 1970-06-07 21.09% Vejle BK 1373 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1457 1
8 1970-08-15 22.99% KB Copenhagen 1438 1 @ B 1903 1504 0
9 1970-06-22 23.00% B 1901 1367 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1432 2
10 1970-04-18 23.55% AB Gladsaxe 1415 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1475 0
11 1970-05-21 23.69% Vejle BK 1350 2 @ Hvidovre 1409 1
12 1970-09-20 23.98% Frem 1398 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1454 1
13 1970-06-22 24.54% Vejle BK 1405 4 @ Aalborg 1456 1
14 1970-05-31 24.55% Hvidovre 1399 2 @ Randers 1450 0
15 1970-06-09 24.77% B 1901 1359 3 @ Frem 1408 1
16 1970-09-27 25.85% Aalborg 1430 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1470 1
17 1970-04-26 26.41% Horsens 1420 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1455 1
18 1970-04-04 26.45% Bronshoj 1363 2 @ Vejle BK 1398 1
19 1970-06-01 26.76% Aalborg 1452 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1484 0
20 1970-04-19 28.08% @ B 1913 1400 3 B 1903 1508 1
21 1970-09-06 28.75% AB Gladsaxe 1439 3 @ Aalborg 1454 1
22 1970-09-20 29.35% Bronshoj 1377 3 @ Randers 1388 2
23 1970-06-22 29.39% Randers 1410 2 @ Horsens 1420 0
24 1970-04-30 30.19% AB Gladsaxe 1435 2 @ Hvidovre 1439 0
25 1970-10-11 30.96% Vejle BK 1463 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1461 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1970-11-01 33.40 AB Gladsaxe 5 1467 40.32% @ B 1901 0 1398 33.24% 26.43%
2 1970-08-30 27.86 B 1903 6 1492 39.99% @ Randers 1 1426 33.57% 26.44%
3 1970-06-01 27.13 Aalborg 3 1452 26.76% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1484 46.91% 26.33%
4 1970-06-07 25.47 Vejle BK 4 1373 21.09% @ AB Gladsaxe 1 1457 53.00% 25.90%
5 1970-08-30 24.85 @ Frem 4 1373 43.95% Horsens 0 1364 29.61% 26.44%
6 1970-10-25 24.64 @ Frem 3 1371 31.84% Vejle BK 0 1450 41.77% 26.39%
7 1970-06-22 23.86 Vejle BK 4 1405 24.54% @ Aalborg 1 1456 49.26% 26.20%
8 1970-08-26 23.43 Vejle BK 3 1414 34.37% @ Horsens 0 1388 39.12% 26.51%
9 1970-10-11 23.23 @ Aalborg 6 1428 47.23% Frem 1 1394 26.46% 26.32%
10 1970-10-03 22.23 @ B 1901 5 1362 40.98% B 1913 1 1375 32.52% 26.50%
11 1970-10-18 21.23 B 1901 2 1376 19.99% @ Vejle BK 0 1471 54.23% 25.78%
12 1970-10-04 21.18 @ Randers 3 1390 39.35% Frem 0 1415 34.15% 26.51%
13 1970-10-17 20.91 AB Gladsaxe 3 1441 39.97% @ Bronshoj 0 1374 33.59% 26.44%
14 1970-05-24 20.88 B 1913 2 1371 20.89% @ Aalborg 0 1457 53.23% 25.88%
15 1970-05-04 20.76 @ AB Gladsaxe 4 1452 50.30% B 1913 0 1392 23.57% 26.13%
16 1970-06-16 20.61 @ B 1903 4 1492 50.53% Randers 0 1430 23.35% 26.11%
17 1970-04-18 19.85 AB Gladsaxe 2 1415 23.55% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1475 50.32% 26.13%
18 1970-05-31 19.48 Hvidovre 2 1399 24.55% @ Randers 0 1450 49.25% 26.20%
19 1970-04-30 18.62 @ Randers 3 1426 44.78% B 1913 0 1411 28.81% 26.41%
20 1970-09-06 18.01 Vejle BK 4 1454 38.97% @ Bronshoj 1 1395 34.57% 26.46%
21 1970-06-22 17.77 Randers 2 1410 29.39% @ Horsens 0 1420 44.17% 26.43%
22 1970-04-30 17.50 AB Gladsaxe 2 1435 30.19% @ Hvidovre 0 1439 43.36% 26.45%
23 1970-06-17 17.27 @ Hvidovre 3 1421 47.55% B 1901 0 1384 26.15% 26.30%
24 1970-06-09 16.79 B 1901 3 1359 24.77% @ Frem 1 1408 49.01% 26.22%
25 1970-08-31 16.52 @ Vejle BK 3 1438 49.04% B 1913 0 1389 24.75% 26.22%