1969 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

B 1903

34 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Esbjerg

12 pts

B 1909 · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

B 1903

7.97 points above expected

34 points · 26.03 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Esbjerg

7.26 points below expected

12 points · 19.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 B 1903 Champion 22 15 4 3 34 58 25 +33 26.03 +7.97
2 KB Copenhagen 22 14 2 6 30 58 38 +20 25.12 +4.88
3 Aalborg 22 12 5 5 29 52 26 +26 26.50 +2.50
4 Hvidovre 22 11 4 7 26 35 34 +1 23.17 +2.83
5 Horsens 22 9 6 7 24 39 36 +3 22.79 +1.21
6 AB Gladsaxe 22 9 5 8 23 32 36 -4 20.34 +2.66
7 B 1913 22 8 3 11 19 33 40 -7 21.62 -2.62
8 Vejle BK 22 6 5 11 17 33 42 -9 19.18 -2.18
9 Frem 22 5 7 10 17 33 45 -12 20.06 -3.06
10 B 1901 22 7 3 12 17 30 50 -20 20.02 -3.02
11 B 1909 Relegated 22 6 4 12 16 44 56 -12 19.92 -3.92
12 Esbjerg Relegated 22 5 2 15 12 30 49 -19 19.26 -7.26

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
B 1903 1643 34 26.03 +7.97 98.8% 10 20 23 26 29 32 38
KB Copenhagen 1592 30 25.12 +4.88 91.6% 12 19 22 25 28 32 38
Aalborg 1534 29 26.50 +2.50 77.9% 11 20 24 27 29 33 40
Hvidovre 1441 26 23.17 +2.83 80.2% 9 17 20 23 26 30 37
Horsens 1429 24 22.79 +1.21 66.4% 9 16 20 23 26 29 36
AB Gladsaxe 1415 23 20.34 +2.66 78.7% 6 14 18 20 23 27 36
B 1913 1379 19 21.62 -2.62 29.7% 7 15 19 22 24 28 35
B 1909 1377 16 19.92 -3.92 18.7% 6 14 17 20 23 26 33
Vejle BK 1372 17 19.18 -2.18 33.6% 6 13 17 19 22 26 34
Frem 1371 17 20.06 -3.06 25.6% 7 14 17 20 23 27 35
Esbjerg 1297 12 19.26 -7.26 3.7% 6 13 17 19 22 26 33
B 1901 1286 17 20.02 -3.02 25.8% 7 14 17 20 23 27 37

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL B1 B1 B1 B1 ESB FRE HOR HVI KC VB
AB Gladsaxe
1-0-1
1.72
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
2.31
0-1-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
3.17
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
2.85
Aalborg
1-0-1
3.88
2-0-0
3.74
0-2-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.65
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-2
3.62
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.40
B 1901
1-0-1
2.99
0-0-2
1.86
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.54
0-1-1
2.03
1-0-1
2.76
B 1903
2-0-0
3.30
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
3.49
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.47
1-1-0
4.07
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.18
1-0-1
3.62
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.79
B 1909
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
2.73
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.76
0-2-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.32
0-0-2
2.23
1-0-1
2.84
B 1913
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-2
2.13
2-0-0
2.87
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
3.15
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.06
Esbjerg
0-0-2
2.43
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
1.55
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.58
1-0-1
1.91
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
2.71
Frem
0-1-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.17
1-1-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
1.88
0-2-0
2.92
Horsens
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.42
0-2-0
3.19
2-0-0
2.45
2-0-0
3.02
1-1-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.58
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
3.55
Hvidovre
1-1-0
3.15
2-0-0
1.99
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
1.98
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.23
0-2-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-2
3.49
KB Copenhagen
1-0-1
3.28
1-0-1
2.70
1-1-0
3.58
0-0-2
2.53
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
2.97
1-1-0
3.72
1-0-1
2.94
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.71
Vejle BK
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.21
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.82
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.89
0-2-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.05
2-0-0
2.11
0-0-2
1.90

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.64 +5.1
Allowed 0.76 -6.3
Differential 0.90 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%5.30%5.30%5.30%1.89%0.76%23.11%
15.30%7.58%4.17%3.79%2.27%1.14%24.24%
25.30%4.17%6.82%3.41%1.89%3.03%24.62%
35.30%3.79%3.41%1.89%0.38%14.77%
41.89%2.27%1.89%1.89%7.95%
5+0.76%1.14%3.03%0.38%5.30%
Total23.11%24.24%24.62%14.77%7.95%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.81 +0.00
SD 1.60 1.60 2.34
CV 0.89 0.89
Max 12 12 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
113.64%9.09%22.73%
29.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
3
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.64 -0.18
SD 1.57 1.81 2.20
CV 1.08 1.11
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%40.91%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.18 +1.18
SD 2.52 1.05 2.74
CV 1.07 0.89
Max 12 4 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
29.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%18.18%18.18%9.09%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.27 -0.91
SD 1.18 1.86 2.29
CV 0.86 0.82
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
218.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total40.91%22.73%18.18%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 1.14 +1.50
SD 1.65 1.17 1.65
CV 0.63 1.03
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%13.64%18.18%
24.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%13.64%27.27%18.18%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.55 -0.55
SD 1.63 2.56 3.05
CV 0.82 1.01
Max 7 12 +5
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%18.18%22.73%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.82 -0.32
SD 1.44 1.33 2.01
CV 0.96 0.73
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
14.55%9.09%22.73%9.09%45.45%
24.55%4.55%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%9.09%40.91%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.23 -0.86
SD 1.40 1.34 2.27
CV 1.03 0.60
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
213.64%4.55%18.18%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%18.18%22.73%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.05 -0.55
SD 1.41 1.50 2.34
CV 0.94 0.73
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%27.27%
24.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
313.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%31.82%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.64 +0.14
SD 1.31 1.36 2.05
CV 0.74 0.83
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
113.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total27.27%36.36%13.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.55 +0.05
SD 1.33 1.57 2.10
CV 0.84 1.01
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
313.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%31.82%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%27.27%31.82%4.55%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 1.73 +0.91
SD 1.47 1.61 2.20
CV 0.56 0.93
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
14.55%9.09%13.64%
24.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%27.27%27.27%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.91 -0.41
SD 1.50 1.27 1.79
CV 1.00 0.66
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1903 34 26.03 +7.97
2 KB Copenhagen 30 25.12 +4.88
3 Hvidovre 26 23.17 +2.83
4 AB Gladsaxe 23 20.34 +2.66
5 Aalborg 29 26.50 +2.50

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 12 19.26 -7.26
2 B 1909 16 19.92 -3.92
3 Frem 17 20.06 -3.06
4 B 1901 17 20.02 -3.02
5 B 1913 19 21.62 -2.62

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KB Copenhagen 8 Aug 31 – Oct 19 1 in 489
2 Hvidovre 5 Apr 8 – May 4 1 in 48
3 Aalborg 5 Apr 13 – May 11 1 in 45
4 B 1901 4 Jun 5 – Aug 24 1 in 42
5 B 1903 7 Sep 13 – Nov 2 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 7 Jun 18 – Sep 28 1 in 494
2 Esbjerg 6 Apr 6 – May 13 1 in 164
3 B 1901 5 Oct 5 – Nov 2 1 in 45
4 Vejle BK 5 Sep 7 – Oct 12 1 in 40
5 Frem 3 Apr 6 – Apr 20 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aalborg 9 Mar 30 – Jun 1 1 in 53
2 KB Copenhagen 10 Aug 31 – Nov 2 1 in 49
3 B 1903 10 Aug 25 – Nov 2 1 in 27
4 B 1913 6 May 11 – Aug 18 1 in 19
5 B 1901 5 Jun 5 – Aug 30 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 10 May 19 – Sep 28 1 in 108
2 Frem 8 Mar 29 – May 18 1 in 55
3 B 1901 9 Aug 30 – Nov 2 1 in 44
4 Vejle BK 6 Mar 30 – May 4 1 in 22
5 Esbjerg 6 Apr 6 – May 13 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
B 190327.54%20.21%15.32%10.51%8.48%6.11%4.27%3.00%2.06%1.37%0.73%0.40%
KB Copenhagen17.71%18.25%15.78%11.88%10.00%7.72%6.07%4.52%3.13%2.52%1.63%0.79%
Aalborg29.71%21.05%14.68%11.26%7.81%5.11%3.94%2.72%1.69%1.08%0.52%0.43%
Hvidovre7.12%10.21%11.96%12.54%11.49%10.51%9.53%7.61%6.84%5.49%4.26%2.44%
Horsens6.59%9.59%11.12%11.60%11.36%10.77%9.82%8.44%6.71%5.86%4.79%3.35%
AB Gladsaxe1.95%3.41%5.33%6.98%8.46%9.16%10.36%10.85%11.04%10.86%10.85%10.75%
B 19133.58%5.54%7.58%9.15%9.92%10.47%10.76%10.52%9.72%8.87%7.91%5.98%
Vejle BK0.85%1.88%3.09%4.48%6.21%7.65%8.50%10.58%11.76%12.98%15.40%16.62%
Frem1.55%2.70%4.21%5.63%7.17%8.91%10.18%10.64%11.19%12.45%12.45%12.92%
B 19011.31%2.86%3.81%5.58%6.84%8.26%8.91%10.18%12.04%12.52%13.03%14.66%
B 19091.16%2.46%4.31%5.89%6.97%8.73%9.42%10.50%12.00%12.58%13.01%12.97%
Esbjerg0.93%1.84%2.81%4.50%5.29%6.60%8.24%10.44%11.82%13.42%15.42%18.69%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.94%
Clear Edge
50.00%18.94%31.06%
Elo Value
Home Edge
148 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
066.61400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.49 goals
Neutral
-2+0.45+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.8
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
28%
B 1903, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.11 * Some Luck: 3.11 to 4.67 * Lucky: 4.67 to 6.22 * Wild Swing: 6.22 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.07 * Close: 2.07 to 3.11 * Off: 3.11 to 4.15 * Way Off: 4.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.34 * A Surprise: 1.34 to 2.14 * Several Surprises: 2.14 to 2.95 * Many Surprises: 2.95 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.17 points
Some Luck
03.8910
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.596
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.75%
B 1903
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.72%
Esbjerg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.43
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.17
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.04
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.32
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Aalborg 99.05% 0.95%
B 1903 98.87% 1.13%
KB Copenhagen 97.58% 2.42%
Hvidovre 93.30% 6.70%
Horsens 91.86% 8.14%
B 1913 86.11% 13.89%
AB Gladsaxe 78.40% 21.60%
Frem 74.63% 25.37%
B 1909 74.02% 25.98%
B 1901 72.31% 27.69%
Vejle BK 67.98% 32.02%
Esbjerg 65.89% 34.11%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1969-03-29 B 1903 D 0-0 1448 1412 57.80% 19.94% 22.26% -2.8 1
1969-03-29 @ Frem D 0-0 1412 1448 22.26% 19.94% 57.80% +2.8 1
1969-03-30 B 1913 D 1-1 1430 1444 52.10% 20.05% 27.85% -1.7 1
1969-03-30 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1444 1430 27.85% 20.05% 52.10% +1.7 1
1969-03-30 B 1909 D 0-0 1412 1414 53.54% 20.03% 26.44% -2.1 1
1969-03-30 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1414 1412 26.44% 20.03% 53.54% +2.1 1
1969-03-30 B 1901 W 1-0 1447 1409 58.02% 19.93% 22.05% +7.7 2
1969-03-30 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1409 1447 22.05% 19.93% 58.02% -7.8 0
1969-03-30 Hvidovre D 1-1 1411 1428 51.74% 20.05% 28.21% -1.6 1
1969-03-30 @ Horsens D 1-1 1428 1411 28.21% 20.05% 51.74% +1.6 1
1969-03-30 Vejle BK W 1-0 1455 1428 56.76% 19.96% 23.28% +8.1 2
1969-03-30 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1428 1455 23.28% 19.96% 56.76% -8.1 0
1969-04-06 Horsens W 4-3 1401 1409 52.80% 20.04% 27.17% +8.1 2
1969-04-06 @ B 1901 L 3-4 1409 1401 27.17% 20.04% 52.80% -8.1 1
1969-04-06 Frem W 3-1 1416 1445 50.18% 20.07% 29.75% +16.3 3
1969-04-06 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1445 1416 29.75% 20.07% 50.18% -16.3 1
1969-04-06 Esbjerg W 2-1 1463 1455 54.69% 20.01% 25.31% +8.2 4
1969-04-06 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1455 1463 25.31% 20.01% 54.69% -8.2 2
1969-04-07 B 1913 W 2-0 1415 1445 50.08% 20.07% 29.85% +18.9 3
1969-04-07 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1445 1415 29.85% 20.07% 50.08% -18.9 1
1969-04-07 Aalborg D 1-1 1420 1428 52.86% 20.04% 27.10% -1.8 1
1969-04-07 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1428 1420 27.10% 20.04% 52.86% +1.8 2
1969-04-08 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1430 1410 56.04% 19.98% 23.98% +8.3 3
1969-04-08 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1410 1430 23.98% 19.98% 56.04% -8.3 1
1969-04-12 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1409 1471 45.96% 20.09% 33.95% -0.6 3
1969-04-12 @ B 1901 D 2-2 1471 1409 33.95% 20.09% 45.96% +0.6 5
1969-04-12 B 1909 L 0-2 1418 1432 52.11% 20.05% 27.84% -30.1 1
1969-04-12 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1432 1418 27.84% 20.05% 52.11% +30.1 5
1969-04-13 Esbjerg W 2-1 1430 1447 51.73% 20.05% 28.22% +9.0 4
1969-04-13 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1447 1430 28.22% 20.05% 51.73% -9.0 2
1969-04-13 B 1903 L 0-2 1401 1434 49.81% 20.07% 30.12% -28.9 1
1969-04-13 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1434 1401 30.12% 20.07% 49.81% +28.9 5
1969-04-13 Horsens L 0-3 1426 1401 56.60% 19.97% 23.43% -47.2 1
1969-04-13 @ B 1913 W 3-0 1401 1426 23.43% 19.97% 56.60% +47.2 3
1969-04-13 Hvidovre L 1-3 1429 1438 52.73% 20.04% 27.24% -26.3 1
1969-04-13 @ Frem W 3-1 1438 1429 27.24% 20.04% 52.73% +26.3 5
1969-04-17 B 1913 L 1-2 1438 1379 60.08% 19.87% 20.05% -17.2 2
1969-04-17 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1379 1438 20.05% 19.87% 60.08% +17.2 3
1969-04-20 Vejle BK D 2-2 1372 1388 51.89% 20.05% 28.06% -1.2 2
1969-04-20 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1388 1372 28.06% 20.05% 51.89% +1.2 2
1969-04-20 B 1903 L 1-3 1462 1463 53.74% 20.02% 26.24% -26.8 5
1969-04-20 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1463 1462 26.24% 20.02% 53.74% +26.8 7
1969-04-20 Aalborg L 1-4 1403 1439 49.38% 20.07% 30.55% -35.1 1
1969-04-20 @ Frem W 4-1 1439 1403 30.55% 20.07% 49.38% +35.1 6
1969-04-22 B 1901 W 2-1 1464 1409 59.79% 19.88% 20.33% +6.8 7
1969-04-22 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1409 1464 20.33% 19.88% 59.79% -6.8 3
1969-04-24 Horsens L 2-5 1420 1449 50.37% 20.06% 29.57% -30.9 2
1969-04-24 @ Esbjerg W 5-2 1449 1420 29.57% 20.06% 50.37% +30.9 5
1969-04-27 AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1474 1371 64.07% 19.69% 16.24% +16.2 8
1969-04-27 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1371 1474 16.24% 19.69% 64.07% -16.2 2
1969-04-27 Hvidovre L 0-1 1396 1471 44.20% 20.09% 35.71% -13.8 3
1969-04-27 @ B 1913 W 1-0 1471 1396 35.71% 20.09% 44.20% +13.8 9
1969-04-27 B 1901 W 1-0 1489 1402 62.79% 19.76% 17.45% +6.3 9
1969-04-27 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1402 1489 17.45% 19.76% 62.79% -6.3 3
1969-04-27 B 1909 W 4-2 1472 1436 57.79% 19.94% 22.27% +11.4 7
1969-04-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1436 1472 22.27% 19.94% 57.79% -11.4 5
1969-04-27 Frem D 1-1 1389 1368 56.25% 19.97% 23.77% -2.3 3
1969-04-27 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1368 1389 23.77% 19.97% 56.25% +2.3 2
1969-05-03 Frem W 1-0 1355 1370 51.99% 20.05% 27.96% +9.5 4
1969-05-03 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1370 1355 27.96% 20.05% 51.99% -9.5 2
1969-05-04 B 1913 W 3-1 1396 1383 55.27% 20.00% 24.74% +14.0 5
1969-05-04 @ B 1901 L 1-3 1383 1396 24.74% 20.00% 55.27% -14.0 3
1969-05-04 Aalborg L 2-3 1424 1490 45.42% 20.09% 34.49% -12.6 5
1969-05-04 @ B 1909 W 3-2 1490 1424 34.49% 20.09% 45.42% +12.6 10
1969-05-04 Vejle BK W 3-0 1479 1387 63.19% 19.74% 17.07% +16.9 7
1969-05-04 @ Horsens L 0-3 1387 1479 17.07% 19.74% 63.19% -16.9 3
1969-05-04 Esbjerg W 3-1 1485 1390 63.46% 19.72% 16.81% +10.0 11
1969-05-04 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1390 1485 16.81% 19.72% 63.46% -10.0 2
1969-05-11 B 1901 W 4-0 1503 1409 63.27% 19.73% 17.00% +22.0 12
1969-05-11 @ Aalborg L 0-4 1409 1503 17.00% 19.73% 63.27% -22.0 5
1969-05-11 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1369 1365 54.24% 20.01% 25.75% -2.0 4
1969-05-11 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1365 1369 25.75% 20.01% 54.24% +2.0 5
1969-05-11 Horsens D 2-2 1361 1496 35.61% 20.03% 44.36% +0.4 3
1969-05-11 @ Frem D 2-2 1496 1361 44.36% 20.03% 35.61% -0.4 8
1969-05-11 Hvidovre W 5-1 1483 1495 52.37% 20.04% 27.59% +28.0 9
1969-05-11 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1495 1483 27.59% 20.04% 52.37% -28.0 11
1969-05-11 B 1903 W 2-1 1370 1496 37.04% 20.05% 42.91% +12.7 5
1969-05-11 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1496 1370 42.91% 20.05% 37.04% -12.7 9
1969-05-13 Esbjerg W 4-0 1411 1380 57.35% 19.95% 22.70% +28.4 7
1969-05-13 @ B 1909 L 0-4 1380 1411 22.70% 19.95% 57.35% -28.4 2
1969-05-18 Vejle BK W 2-0 1387 1383 54.30% 20.01% 25.69% +16.7 7
1969-05-18 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1383 1387 25.69% 20.01% 54.30% -16.7 5
1969-05-18 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1367 1511 34.45% 20.01% 45.54% +26.7 6
1969-05-18 @ B 1913 L 0-2 1511 1367 45.54% 20.01% 34.45% -26.7 9
1969-05-18 Frem W 3-2 1351 1361 52.61% 20.04% 27.35% +8.3 4
1969-05-18 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1361 1351 27.35% 20.04% 52.61% -8.3 3
1969-05-18 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1496 1367 66.22% 19.56% 14.21% +5.2 10
1969-05-18 @ Horsens L 0-1 1367 1496 14.21% 19.56% 66.22% -5.2 5
1969-05-19 B 1909 D 2-2 1467 1440 56.82% 19.96% 23.22% -1.8 12
1969-05-19 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1440 1467 23.22% 19.96% 56.82% +1.8 8
1969-05-20 Aalborg D 1-1 1483 1525 48.65% 20.08% 31.28% -1.2 10
1969-05-20 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1525 1483 31.28% 20.08% 48.65% +1.2 13
1969-06-01 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1526 1484 58.35% 19.92% 21.73% +7.7 15
1969-06-01 @ Aalborg L 0-1 1484 1526 21.73% 19.92% 58.35% -7.6 9
1969-06-01 Esbjerg W 2-1 1361 1359 53.99% 20.02% 25.99% +8.4 7
1969-06-01 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1359 1361 25.99% 20.02% 53.99% -8.4 4
1969-06-01 Horsens W 3-0 1482 1501 51.46% 20.05% 28.49% +26.4 12
1969-06-01 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1501 1482 28.49% 20.05% 51.46% -26.4 10
1969-06-01 Hvidovre W 1-0 1366 1465 40.83% 20.08% 39.10% +12.5 7
1969-06-01 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1465 1366 39.10% 20.08% 40.83% -12.5 12
1969-06-02 B 1901 W 5-0 1353 1404 47.34% 20.08% 32.57% +47.5 5
1969-06-02 @ Frem L 0-5 1404 1353 32.57% 20.08% 47.34% -47.5 7
1969-06-03 B 1913 L 2-4 1442 1393 59.07% 19.90% 21.03% -26.2 8
1969-06-03 @ B 1909 W 4-2 1393 1442 21.03% 19.90% 59.07% +26.2 8
1969-06-05 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1357 1370 52.21% 20.04% 27.74% +9.4 9
1969-06-05 @ B 1901 L 0-1 1370 1357 27.74% 20.04% 52.21% -9.4 7
1969-06-05 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1475 1477 53.55% 20.03% 26.43% +8.1 12
1969-06-05 @ Horsens L 2-3 1477 1475 26.43% 20.03% 53.55% -8.1 9
1969-06-08 B 1903 D 1-1 1351 1508 32.75% 19.99% 47.26% +1.0 5
1969-06-08 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1508 1351 47.26% 19.99% 32.75% -1.0 13
1969-06-08 Aalborg W 1-0 1453 1533 43.36% 20.09% 36.55% +11.8 14
1969-06-08 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1533 1453 36.55% 20.09% 43.36% -11.8 15
1969-06-09 Vejle BK D 0-0 1419 1379 58.27% 19.92% 21.80% -2.9 9
1969-06-09 @ B 1913 D 0-0 1379 1419 21.80% 19.92% 58.27% +2.9 8
1969-06-09 Frem W 3-0 1469 1400 61.04% 19.83% 19.13% +18.7 11
1969-06-09 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1400 1469 19.13% 19.83% 61.04% -18.7 5
1969-06-10 B 1909 D 1-1 1483 1415 60.93% 19.84% 19.23% -3.0 13
1969-06-10 @ Horsens D 1-1 1415 1483 19.23% 19.84% 60.93% +3.0 9
1969-06-12 KB Copenhagen W 5-2 1507 1487 56.05% 19.98% 23.97% +16.7 15
1969-06-12 @ B 1903 L 2-5 1487 1507 23.97% 19.98% 56.05% -16.6 11
1969-06-17 Hvidovre L 2-3 1524 1464 60.17% 19.86% 19.97% -16.4 15
1969-06-17 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1464 1524 19.97% 19.86% 60.17% +16.4 16
1969-06-18 Horsens L 1-2 1522 1480 58.38% 19.92% 21.70% -16.8 15
1969-06-18 @ Aalborg W 2-1 1480 1522 21.70% 19.92% 58.38% +16.7 15
1969-06-18 B 1901 L 0-2 1418 1366 59.47% 19.89% 20.65% -34.1 9
1969-06-18 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1366 1418 20.65% 19.89% 59.47% +34.1 11
1969-06-18 B 1913 L 0-3 1381 1417 49.46% 20.07% 30.47% -41.7 5
1969-06-18 @ Frem W 3-0 1417 1381 30.47% 20.07% 49.46% +41.7 11
1969-06-19 Esbjerg L 2-3 1382 1352 57.10% 19.95% 22.94% -15.5 8
1969-06-19 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1352 1382 22.94% 19.95% 57.10% +15.5 7
1969-08-17 B 1903 W 2-1 1400 1508 39.59% 20.07% 40.34% +12.1 13
1969-08-17 @ B 1901 L 1-2 1508 1400 40.34% 20.07% 39.59% -12.1 15
1969-08-18 B 1909 W 1-0 1458 1384 61.54% 19.81% 18.65% +6.7 13
1969-08-18 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1384 1458 18.65% 19.81% 61.54% -6.7 9
1969-08-19 AB Gladsaxe L 2-4 1471 1360 64.73% 19.66% 15.62% -28.8 11
1969-08-19 @ KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1360 1471 15.62% 19.66% 64.73% +28.8 9
1969-08-20 Vejle BK W 4-0 1368 1366 53.94% 20.02% 26.04% +32.0 9
1969-08-20 @ Esbjerg L 0-4 1366 1368 26.04% 20.02% 53.94% -32.0 8
1969-08-20 Aalborg L 0-3 1497 1505 52.80% 20.04% 27.16% -44.2 15
1969-08-20 @ Horsens W 3-0 1505 1497 27.16% 20.04% 52.80% +44.2 17
1969-08-20 Frem L 2-3 1481 1340 67.10% 19.50% 13.40% -18.3 16
1969-08-20 @ Hvidovre W 3-2 1340 1481 13.40% 19.50% 67.10% +18.3 7
1969-08-24 Esbjerg W 3-0 1412 1400 55.23% 20.00% 24.77% +23.5 15
1969-08-24 @ B 1901 L 0-3 1400 1412 24.77% 20.00% 55.23% -23.5 9
1969-08-24 Aalborg L 0-2 1465 1549 42.90% 20.08% 37.02% -25.4 13
1969-08-24 @ B 1913 W 2-0 1549 1465 37.02% 20.08% 42.90% +25.4 19
1969-08-24 B 1909 W 3-1 1358 1378 51.41% 20.05% 28.54% +15.8 9
1969-08-24 @ Frem L 1-3 1378 1358 28.54% 20.05% 51.41% -15.8 9
1969-08-25 B 1903 L 3-6 1442 1496 47.06% 20.08% 32.85% -27.0 11
1969-08-25 @ KB Copenhagen W 6-3 1496 1442 32.85% 20.08% 47.06% +27.0 17
1969-08-26 Hvidovre D 0-0 1389 1463 44.38% 20.09% 35.54% -0.7 10
1969-08-26 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1463 1389 35.54% 20.09% 44.38% +0.7 17
1969-08-26 Horsens W 4-1 1334 1452 38.06% 20.06% 41.88% +30.5 10
1969-08-26 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1452 1334 41.88% 20.06% 38.06% -30.5 15
1969-08-30 AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1522 1388 66.58% 19.54% 13.89% +14.0 19
1969-08-30 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1388 1522 13.89% 19.54% 66.58% -14.0 10
1969-08-30 B 1901 D 2-2 1422 1436 52.14% 20.05% 27.82% -1.2 16
1969-08-30 @ Horsens D 2-2 1436 1422 27.82% 20.05% 52.14% +1.2 16
1969-08-31 Frem W 3-1 1574 1374 70.97% 19.13% 9.90% +6.1 21
1969-08-31 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1374 1574 9.90% 19.13% 70.97% -6.1 9
1969-08-31 Vejle BK L 2-5 1362 1365 53.45% 20.03% 26.52% -32.7 9
1969-08-31 @ B 1909 W 5-2 1365 1362 26.52% 20.03% 53.45% +32.7 12
1969-08-31 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1376 1415 48.99% 20.07% 30.93% -28.4 9
1969-08-31 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1415 1376 30.93% 20.07% 48.99% +28.4 13
1969-08-31 B 1913 W 2-1 1463 1440 56.45% 19.97% 23.58% +7.7 19
1969-08-31 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1440 1463 23.58% 19.97% 56.45% -7.7 13
1969-09-06 B 1901 W 5-2 1374 1437 45.86% 20.09% 34.05% +22.3 12
1969-09-06 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-5 1437 1374 34.05% 20.09% 45.86% -22.3 16
1969-09-07 B 1903 D 2-2 1581 1537 58.62% 19.91% 21.47% -2.0 22
1969-09-07 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1537 1581 21.47% 19.91% 58.62% +2.0 20
1969-09-07 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1329 1443 38.63% 20.06% 41.31% -20.2 9
1969-09-07 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1443 1329 41.31% 20.06% 38.63% +20.2 15
1969-09-07 Esbjerg W 4-0 1368 1348 56.05% 19.98% 23.97% +29.8 11
1969-09-07 @ Frem L 0-4 1348 1368 23.97% 19.98% 56.05% -29.8 9
1969-09-07 Horsens D 0-0 1471 1421 59.25% 19.89% 20.85% -3.1 20
1969-09-07 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1421 1471 20.85% 19.89% 59.25% +3.1 17
1969-09-07 B 1913 L 0-2 1397 1432 49.55% 20.07% 30.38% -28.7 12
1969-09-07 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1432 1397 30.38% 20.07% 49.55% +28.7 15
1969-09-13 B 1909 W 4-3 1538 1309 72.54% 18.93% 8.53% +2.8 22
1969-09-13 @ B 1903 L 3-4 1309 1538 8.53% 18.93% 72.54% -2.8 9
1969-09-14 Aalborg L 0-3 1415 1579 31.87% 19.97% 48.16% -28.9 16
1969-09-14 @ B 1901 W 3-0 1579 1415 48.16% 19.97% 31.87% +28.9 24
1969-09-14 Frem L 2-3 1461 1397 60.52% 19.85% 19.63% -16.5 15
1969-09-14 @ B 1913 W 3-2 1397 1461 19.63% 19.85% 60.52% +16.5 13
1969-09-14 Hvidovre W 5-0 1318 1468 33.70% 20.00% 46.29% +63.2 11
1969-09-14 @ Esbjerg L 0-5 1468 1318 46.29% 20.00% 33.70% -63.2 20
1969-09-14 Horsens W 2-1 1464 1424 58.18% 19.93% 21.89% +7.3 17
1969-09-14 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1424 1464 21.89% 19.93% 58.18% -7.3 17
1969-09-14 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1369 1397 50.36% 20.06% 29.58% -15.5 12
1969-09-14 @ Vejle BK W 1-0 1397 1369 29.58% 20.06% 50.36% +15.5 14
1969-09-24 Aalborg W 1-0 1412 1607 27.97% 19.88% 52.15% +15.9 16
1969-09-24 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1607 1412 52.15% 19.88% 27.97% -15.9 24
1969-09-25 Esbjerg W 2-0 1416 1381 57.72% 19.94% 22.35% +14.8 19
1969-09-25 @ Horsens L 0-2 1381 1416 22.35% 19.94% 57.72% -14.8 11
1969-09-28 KB Copenhagen L 2-6 1428 1471 48.49% 20.08% 31.44% -37.8 16
1969-09-28 @ AB Gladsaxe W 6-2 1471 1428 31.44% 20.08% 48.49% +37.8 19
1969-09-28 Frem D 0-0 1386 1414 50.35% 20.06% 29.59% -1.6 17
1969-09-28 @ B 1901 D 0-0 1414 1386 29.59% 20.06% 50.35% +1.6 14
1969-09-28 Hvidovre L 0-2 1306 1405 40.89% 20.08% 39.04% -24.4 9
1969-09-28 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1405 1306 39.04% 20.08% 40.89% +24.4 22
1969-09-28 Vejle BK W 4-3 1541 1353 70.23% 19.22% 10.55% +3.5 24
1969-09-28 @ B 1903 L 3-4 1353 1541 10.55% 19.22% 70.23% -3.5 12
1969-09-28 B 1913 W 3-2 1509 1444 60.66% 19.85% 19.49% +6.2 21
1969-09-28 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1444 1509 19.49% 19.85% 60.66% -6.2 15
1969-10-04 KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1429 1515 42.65% 20.08% 37.26% -36.7 22
1969-10-04 @ Hvidovre W 3-0 1515 1429 37.26% 20.08% 42.65% +36.7 23
1969-10-05 Vejle BK W 4-2 1592 1350 73.17% 18.83% 8.00% +4.4 26
1969-10-05 @ Aalborg L 2-4 1350 1592 8.00% 18.83% 73.17% -4.4 12
1969-10-05 B 1901 W 5-2 1438 1384 59.60% 19.88% 20.51% +14.6 17
1969-10-05 @ B 1913 L 2-5 1384 1438 20.51% 19.88% 59.60% -14.5 17
1969-10-05 B 1909 L 0-3 1366 1282 62.51% 19.77% 17.72% -52.0 11
1969-10-05 @ Esbjerg W 3-0 1282 1366 17.72% 19.77% 62.51% +52.1 11
1969-10-05 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1415 1390 56.62% 19.97% 23.41% -2.3 15
1969-10-05 @ Frem D 1-1 1390 1415 23.41% 19.97% 56.62% +2.4 17
1969-10-05 B 1903 L 0-2 1431 1545 38.73% 20.06% 41.21% -23.3 19
1969-10-05 @ Horsens W 2-0 1545 1431 41.21% 20.06% 38.73% +23.3 26
1969-10-11 Frem W 6-1 1568 1413 68.08% 19.42% 12.50% +17.0 28
1969-10-11 @ B 1903 L 1-6 1413 1568 12.50% 19.42% 68.08% -17.0 15
1969-10-12 B 1909 W 12-2 1596 1334 74.13% 18.67% 7.20% +15.5 28
1969-10-12 @ Aalborg L 2-12 1334 1596 7.20% 18.67% 74.13% -15.5 11
1969-10-12 Horsens W 4-1 1393 1408 51.95% 20.05% 28.01% +21.9 19
1969-10-12 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-4 1408 1393 28.01% 20.05% 51.95% -21.9 19
1969-10-12 Hvidovre L 1-4 1370 1392 51.02% 20.06% 28.92% -36.1 17
1969-10-12 @ B 1901 W 4-1 1392 1370 28.92% 20.06% 51.02% +36.1 24
1969-10-12 Esbjerg W 4-3 1452 1314 66.88% 19.52% 13.61% +4.4 19
1969-10-12 @ B 1913 L 3-4 1314 1452 13.61% 19.52% 66.88% -4.4 11
1969-10-12 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1345 1552 26.67% 19.84% 53.49% -8.1 12
1969-10-12 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1552 1345 53.49% 19.84% 26.67% +8.1 25
1969-10-18 B 1903 L 0-2 1428 1585 32.82% 19.99% 47.19% -20.4 24
1969-10-18 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1585 1428 47.19% 19.99% 32.82% +20.4 30
1969-10-19 AB Gladsaxe W 7-2 1318 1415 41.20% 20.08% 38.72% +37.8 13
1969-10-19 @ B 1909 L 2-7 1415 1318 38.72% 20.08% 41.20% -37.8 19
1969-10-19 Aalborg D 1-1 1310 1611 17.22% 19.38% 63.39% +3.4 12
1969-10-19 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1611 1310 63.39% 19.38% 17.22% -3.4 29
1969-10-19 Vejle BK D 2-2 1396 1337 60.13% 19.87% 20.01% -2.1 16
1969-10-19 @ Frem D 2-2 1337 1396 20.01% 19.87% 60.13% +2.2 13
1969-10-19 B 1913 W 3-1 1386 1457 44.74% 20.09% 35.17% +18.7 21
1969-10-19 @ Horsens L 1-3 1457 1386 35.17% 20.09% 44.74% -18.7 19
1969-10-19 B 1901 W 5-1 1560 1333 72.38% 18.95% 8.67% +9.8 27
1969-10-19 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1333 1560 8.67% 18.95% 72.38% -9.8 17
1969-10-25 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1394 1569 30.40% 19.94% 49.66% +1.0 17
1969-10-25 @ Frem D 2-2 1569 1394 49.66% 19.94% 30.40% -1.0 28
1969-10-26 Hvidovre L 1-4 1608 1408 70.93% 19.14% 9.93% -50.0 29
1969-10-26 @ Aalborg W 4-1 1408 1608 9.93% 19.14% 70.93% +50.0 26
1969-10-26 B 1913 W 4-1 1377 1438 46.02% 20.09% 33.89% +25.7 21
1969-10-26 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-4 1438 1377 33.89% 20.09% 46.02% -25.7 19
1969-10-26 Horsens D 2-2 1356 1405 47.74% 20.08% 32.18% -0.8 14
1969-10-26 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1405 1356 32.18% 20.08% 47.74% +0.8 22
1969-10-26 Esbjerg W 3-1 1606 1313 75.44% 18.42% 6.14% +3.8 32
1969-10-26 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1313 1606 6.14% 18.42% 75.44% -3.8 12
1969-10-26 B 1901 W 2-0 1339 1324 55.57% 19.99% 24.45% +16.0 15
1969-10-26 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1324 1339 24.45% 19.99% 55.57% -16.0 17
1969-11-02 B 1909 L 2-4 1308 1355 47.83% 20.08% 32.09% -21.6 17
1969-11-02 @ B 1901 W 4-2 1355 1308 32.09% 20.08% 47.83% +21.6 16
1969-11-02 B 1903 L 0-4 1412 1609 27.78% 19.87% 52.35% -33.7 19
1969-11-02 @ B 1913 W 4-0 1609 1412 52.35% 19.87% 27.78% +33.7 34
1969-11-02 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1309 1402 41.65% 20.08% 38.27% -12.4 12
1969-11-02 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1402 1309 38.27% 20.08% 41.65% +12.4 23
1969-11-02 Frem W 3-0 1405 1395 54.99% 20.00% 25.01% +23.6 24
1969-11-02 @ Horsens L 0-3 1395 1405 25.01% 20.00% 54.99% -23.7 17
1969-11-02 Vejle BK L 3-4 1458 1355 64.11% 19.69% 16.20% -17.0 26
1969-11-02 @ Hvidovre W 4-3 1355 1458 16.20% 19.69% 64.11% +17.0 17
1969-11-02 Aalborg W 3-0 1568 1558 54.98% 20.00% 25.02% +23.7 30
1969-11-02 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1558 1568 25.02% 20.00% 54.98% -23.6 29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1969-10-26 9.93% Hvidovre 1408 4 @ Aalborg 1608 1
2 1969-08-20 13.40% Frem 1340 3 @ Hvidovre 1481 2
3 1969-08-19 15.62% AB Gladsaxe 1360 4 @ KB Copenhagen 1471 2
4 1969-11-02 16.20% Vejle BK 1355 4 @ Hvidovre 1458 3
5 1969-10-05 17.72% B 1909 1282 3 @ Esbjerg 1366 0
6 1969-09-14 19.63% Frem 1397 3 @ B 1913 1461 2
7 1969-06-17 19.97% Hvidovre 1464 3 @ B 1903 1524 2
8 1969-04-17 20.05% B 1913 1379 2 @ Esbjerg 1438 1
9 1969-06-18 20.65% B 1901 1366 2 @ B 1909 1418 0
10 1969-06-03 21.03% B 1913 1393 4 @ B 1909 1442 2
11 1969-06-18 21.70% Horsens 1480 2 @ Aalborg 1522 1
12 1969-06-19 22.94% Esbjerg 1352 3 @ Vejle BK 1382 2
13 1969-04-13 23.43% Horsens 1401 3 @ B 1913 1426 0
14 1969-04-20 26.24% B 1903 1463 3 @ B 1909 1462 1
15 1969-08-31 26.52% Vejle BK 1365 5 @ B 1909 1362 2
16 1969-08-20 27.16% Aalborg 1505 3 @ Horsens 1497 0
17 1969-04-13 27.24% Hvidovre 1438 3 @ Frem 1429 1
18 1969-04-12 27.84% B 1909 1432 2 @ Vejle BK 1418 0
19 1969-09-24 27.97% @ AB Gladsaxe 1412 1 Aalborg 1607 0
20 1969-10-12 28.92% Hvidovre 1392 4 @ B 1901 1370 1
21 1969-04-24 29.57% Horsens 1449 5 @ Esbjerg 1420 2
22 1969-09-14 29.58% AB Gladsaxe 1397 1 @ Vejle BK 1369 0
23 1969-04-13 30.12% B 1903 1434 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1401 0
24 1969-09-07 30.38% B 1913 1432 2 @ Vejle BK 1397 0
25 1969-06-18 30.47% B 1913 1417 3 @ Frem 1381 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-09-14 63.24 @ Esbjerg 5 1318 33.70% Hvidovre 0 1468 46.29% 20.00%
2 1969-10-05 52.06 B 1909 3 1282 17.72% @ Esbjerg 0 1366 62.51% 19.77%
3 1969-10-26 50.02 Hvidovre 4 1408 9.93% @ Aalborg 1 1608 70.93% 19.14%
4 1969-06-02 47.48 @ Frem 5 1353 47.34% B 1901 0 1404 32.57% 20.08%
5 1969-04-13 47.21 Horsens 3 1401 23.43% @ B 1913 0 1426 56.60% 19.97%
6 1969-08-20 44.21 Aalborg 3 1505 27.16% @ Horsens 0 1497 52.80% 20.04%
7 1969-06-18 41.66 B 1913 3 1417 30.47% @ Frem 0 1381 49.46% 20.07%
8 1969-10-19 37.84 @ B 1909 7 1318 41.20% AB Gladsaxe 2 1415 38.72% 20.08%
9 1969-09-28 37.81 KB Copenhagen 6 1471 31.44% @ AB Gladsaxe 2 1428 48.49% 20.08%
10 1969-10-04 36.68 KB Copenhagen 3 1515 37.26% @ Hvidovre 0 1429 42.65% 20.08%
11 1969-10-12 36.13 Hvidovre 4 1392 28.92% @ B 1901 1 1370 51.02% 20.06%
12 1969-04-20 35.08 Aalborg 4 1439 30.55% @ Frem 1 1403 49.38% 20.07%
13 1969-06-18 34.11 B 1901 2 1366 20.65% @ B 1909 0 1418 59.47% 19.89%
14 1969-11-02 33.67 B 1903 4 1609 52.35% @ B 1913 0 1412 27.78% 19.87%
15 1969-08-31 32.66 Vejle BK 5 1365 26.52% @ B 1909 2 1362 53.45% 20.03%
16 1969-08-20 31.96 @ Esbjerg 4 1368 53.94% Vejle BK 0 1366 26.04% 20.02%
17 1969-04-24 30.92 Horsens 5 1449 29.57% @ Esbjerg 2 1420 50.37% 20.06%
18 1969-08-26 30.46 @ Vejle BK 4 1334 38.06% Horsens 1 1452 41.88% 20.06%
19 1969-04-12 30.08 B 1909 2 1432 27.84% @ Vejle BK 0 1418 52.11% 20.05%
20 1969-09-07 29.79 @ Frem 4 1368 56.05% Esbjerg 0 1348 23.97% 19.98%
21 1969-09-14 28.92 Aalborg 3 1579 48.16% @ B 1901 0 1415 31.87% 19.97%
22 1969-04-13 28.87 B 1903 2 1434 30.12% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1401 49.81% 20.07%
23 1969-08-19 28.77 AB Gladsaxe 4 1360 15.62% @ KB Copenhagen 2 1471 64.73% 19.66%
24 1969-09-07 28.73 B 1913 2 1432 30.38% @ Vejle BK 0 1397 49.55% 20.07%
25 1969-08-31 28.44 KB Copenhagen 2 1415 30.93% @ Esbjerg 0 1376 48.99% 20.07%