1968 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

KB Copenhagen

29 points · 5th Title

Last Title: 1952-53

Relegated

Aarhus GF

6 pts

Odense · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

5.58 points above expected

29 points · 23.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aarhus GF

8.56 points below expected

6 points · 14.56 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KB Copenhagen Champion 22 13 3 6 29 50 26 +24 24.99 +4.01
2 Esbjerg 22 12 5 5 29 41 25 +16 23.42 +5.58
3 Frem 22 12 5 5 29 40 31 +9 24.94 +4.06
4 B 1913 22 11 5 6 27 37 29 +8 22.90 +4.10
5 Vejle BK 22 11 3 8 25 37 31 +6 24.37 +0.63
6 B 1909 22 9 5 8 23 36 41 -5 21.95 +1.05
7 Aalborg 22 7 7 8 21 37 35 +2 21.33 -0.33
8 Hvidovre 22 8 4 10 20 30 28 +2 24.15 -4.15
9 AB Gladsaxe 22 9 2 11 20 28 32 -4 21.83 -1.83
10 Horsens 22 7 6 9 20 27 35 -8 20.39 -0.39
11 Odense Relegated 22 6 3 13 15 24 33 -9 19.17 -4.17
12 Aarhus GF Relegated 22 1 4 17 6 10 51 -41 14.56 -8.56

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1378 29 24.99 +4.01 87.6% 8 19 22 25 28 31 39
Frem 1353 29 24.94 +4.06 87.8% 10 18 22 25 28 31 40
Esbjerg 1348 29 23.42 +5.58 94.0% 9 17 21 23 26 30 37
B 1913 1333 27 22.90 +4.10 87.5% 9 16 20 23 26 30 37
Aalborg 1277 21 21.33 -0.33 51.7% 7 15 19 21 24 28 36
Vejle BK 1272 25 24.37 +0.63 61.1% 8 18 22 24 27 31 39
Hvidovre 1271 20 24.15 -4.15 17.3% 9 18 22 24 27 31 39
B 1909 1214 23 21.95 +1.05 65.4% 7 15 19 22 25 29 37
AB Gladsaxe 1206 20 21.83 -1.83 37.1% 8 15 19 22 25 28 35
Horsens 1203 20 20.39 -0.39 51.5% 7 14 18 20 23 27 38
Odense 1200 15 19.17 -4.17 18.0% 5 13 16 19 22 26 36
Aarhus GF 986 6 14.56 -8.56 1.0% 2 9 12 14 17 21 29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL AG B1 B1 ESB FRE HOR HVI KC ODE VB
AB Gladsaxe
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
4.23
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.37
Aalborg
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
3.70
1-1-0
2.29
1-1-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.68
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
3.14
0-1-1
2.60
Aarhus GF
1-0-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.90
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-2
2.15
0-1-1
1.84
0-1-1
1.16
0-2-0
1.90
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
1.69
B 1909
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-2
3.03
1-0-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.17
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.34
B 1913
1-0-1
3.13
0-1-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.44
2-0-0
2.55
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.83
Esbjerg
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.75
1-0-1
3.05
0-1-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.53
2-0-0
3.18
1-1-0
2.46
Frem
1-0-1
3.39
1-1-0
3.02
1-1-0
4.44
1-1-0
3.41
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.38
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.67
Horsens
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.70
0-2-0
3.69
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.28
Hvidovre
1-0-1
2.93
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
4.05
0-0-2
3.16
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.54
0-0-2
2.89
1-1-0
3.50
0-1-1
2.61
KB Copenhagen
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.41
1-1-0
2.91
0-1-1
3.05
0-0-2
2.85
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
2.69
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.28
Odense
0-1-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.44
2-0-0
3.50
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.25
0-0-2
2.41
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
1.95
1-0-1
1.98
Vejle BK
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.30
1-0-1
3.61

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.90 +6.3
Allowed 0.63 -7.5
Differential 0.89 +3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%5.68%8.33%3.79%0.38%0.38%25.38%
15.68%6.06%10.23%3.79%1.89%1.14%28.79%
28.33%10.23%5.30%1.52%1.89%0.38%27.65%
33.79%3.79%1.52%1.52%0.38%10.98%
40.38%1.89%1.89%0.38%4.55%
5+0.38%1.14%0.38%0.38%0.38%2.65%
Total25.38%28.79%27.65%10.98%4.55%2.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 1.94
CV 0.89 0.89
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%36.36%
19.09%13.64%22.73%
218.18%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%40.91%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.45 -0.18
SD 1.24 1.30 1.62
CV 0.98 0.89
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
113.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
313.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
4
5+
Total22.73%27.27%27.27%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.59 +0.09
SD 1.04 1.30 1.72
CV 0.62 0.82
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%22.73%18.18%4.55%59.09%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%
3
4
5+
Total13.64%13.64%36.36%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.45 2.32 -1.86
SD 0.60 1.89 1.98
CV 1.31 0.81
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%27.27%
218.18%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%50.00%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%9.09%27.27%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.86 -0.23
SD 1.09 1.67 1.82
CV 0.67 0.90
Max 5 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
213.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.32 +0.36
SD 1.25 1.13 1.76
CV 0.74 0.86
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%13.64%31.82%
19.09%4.55%13.64%
24.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
413.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%45.45%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.14 +0.73
SD 1.70 1.13 1.72
CV 0.91 0.99
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
29.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%31.82%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.41 +0.41
SD 1.14 1.22 1.53
CV 0.63 0.87
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%18.18%9.09%9.09%45.45%
3
4
5+
Total22.73%31.82%18.18%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.59 -0.36
SD 0.81 1.33 1.59
CV 0.66 0.84
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%22.73%9.09%40.91%
213.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%31.82%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.27 +0.09
SD 1.00 0.94 1.60
CV 0.73 0.73
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
313.64%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total31.82%36.36%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.18 +1.09
SD 2.07 1.18 2.71
CV 0.91 1.00
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%36.36%
19.09%4.55%18.18%9.09%40.91%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%31.82%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.50 -0.41
SD 1.27 1.26 1.84
CV 1.16 0.84
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
218.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%40.91%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%31.82%22.73%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.41 +0.27
SD 1.49 1.26 1.91
CV 0.89 0.89
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 29 23.42 +5.58
2 B 1913 27 22.90 +4.10
3 Frem 29 24.94 +4.06
4 KB Copenhagen 29 24.99 +4.01
5 B 1909 23 21.95 +1.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aarhus GF 6 14.56 -8.56
2 Odense 15 19.17 -4.17
3 Hvidovre 20 24.15 -4.15
4 AB Gladsaxe 20 21.83 -1.83
5 Horsens 20 20.39 -0.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 6 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 92
2 AB Gladsaxe 5 Apr 21 – May 16 1 in 63
3 KB Copenhagen 4 Apr 7 – Apr 28 1 in 43
4 B 1913 4 Sep 29 – Oct 27 1 in 31
5 B 1909 3 May 2 – May 19 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AB Gladsaxe 5 May 26 – Aug 18 1 in 361
2 Odense 6 Apr 7 – May 9 1 in 126
3 Aarhus GF 10 Aug 22 – Nov 3 1 in 90
4 B 1909 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 35
5 Hvidovre 3 Jun 16 – Aug 22 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 9 Jun 9 – Sep 22 1 in 53
2 Aalborg 7 Jun 9 – Sep 8 1 in 42
3 B 1913 8 Sep 2 – Oct 27 1 in 32
4 Horsens 4 Apr 11 – May 5 1 in 10
5 B 1909 5 Jun 9 – Aug 25 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AB Gladsaxe 10 May 26 – Sep 22 1 in 251
2 Aalborg 9 Apr 7 – Jun 9 1 in 63
3 Frem 5 May 16 – Jun 16 1 in 30
4 Vejle BK 5 Jun 12 – Sep 3 1 in 26
5 Aarhus GF 14 Jun 9 – Nov 3 1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KB Copenhagen21.26%16.20%12.83%11.10%9.40%7.82%6.62%5.34%3.99%2.99%1.83%0.62%
Esbjerg11.38%11.48%11.31%10.40%10.78%9.51%9.38%8.16%6.94%5.30%4.03%1.33%
Frem18.16%15.20%13.91%10.96%10.09%8.36%7.01%5.72%4.82%3.25%2.02%0.50%
B 19138.20%9.33%9.70%10.70%10.96%9.91%9.57%8.88%8.50%7.04%5.15%2.06%
Vejle BK13.72%13.69%12.83%11.81%10.30%9.41%7.48%6.97%5.90%4.38%2.67%0.84%
B 19094.54%5.78%7.44%8.30%8.75%10.10%10.77%10.62%11.19%10.39%8.61%3.51%
Aalborg3.33%5.02%6.33%7.61%8.71%9.39%11.40%11.65%11.46%10.93%9.91%4.26%
Hvidovre11.76%12.49%11.76%11.59%10.98%9.84%8.54%7.99%6.23%4.68%3.14%1.00%
AB Gladsaxe4.16%5.76%7.00%7.92%8.78%10.54%10.20%10.97%11.31%10.81%9.00%3.55%
Horsens2.32%2.90%4.23%5.47%6.31%8.20%9.30%11.33%12.89%14.90%14.74%7.41%
Odense1.13%2.07%2.50%3.74%4.44%6.03%8.14%9.66%12.17%16.86%20.85%12.41%
Aarhus GF0.04%0.08%0.16%0.40%0.50%0.89%1.59%2.71%4.60%8.47%18.05%62.51%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Clear Edge
48.48%19.70%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
058.45400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.3
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
KB Copenhagen, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.14 * Some Luck: 3.14 to 4.71 * Lucky: 4.71 to 6.29 * Wild Swing: 6.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.06 * Close: 2.06 to 3.09 * Off: 3.09 to 4.11 * Way Off: 4.11 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.86 * A Surprise: 0.86 to 1.38 * Several Surprises: 1.38 to 1.9 * Many Surprises: 1.9 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.02 points
Some Luck
03.9310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.576
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.98%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.99%
Aarhus GF
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.44
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.09
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.21
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.74
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 97.55% 2.45%
Frem 97.48% 2.52%
Vejle BK 96.49% 3.51%
Hvidovre 95.86% 4.14%
Esbjerg 94.64% 5.36%
B 1913 92.79% 7.21%
B 1909 87.88% 12.12%
AB Gladsaxe 87.45% 12.55%
Aalborg 85.83% 14.17%
Horsens 77.85% 22.15%
Odense 66.74% 33.26%
Aarhus GF 19.44% 80.56%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1968-04-07 Vejle BK L 1-2 1249 1256 50.47% 20.85% 28.68% -15.2 0
1968-04-07 @ Aalborg W 2-1 1256 1249 28.68% 20.85% 50.47% +15.2 2
1968-04-07 KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1233 1252 48.91% 20.86% 30.23% -42.9 0
1968-04-07 @ Aarhus GF W 3-0 1252 1233 30.23% 20.86% 48.91% +42.9 2
1968-04-07 B 1909 D 2-2 1281 1240 56.08% 20.74% 23.18% -1.8 1
1968-04-07 @ Frem D 2-2 1240 1281 23.18% 20.74% 56.08% +1.8 1
1968-04-07 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1246 1270 48.31% 20.87% 30.82% -14.6 0
1968-04-07 @ Horsens W 2-1 1270 1246 30.82% 20.87% 48.31% +14.6 2
1968-04-07 B 1913 W 3-1 1282 1246 55.47% 20.76% 23.77% +14.1 2
1968-04-07 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1246 1282 23.77% 20.76% 55.47% -14.1 0
1968-04-07 Esbjerg L 0-1 1245 1244 51.37% 20.84% 27.79% -16.3 0
1968-04-07 @ Odense W 1-0 1244 1245 27.79% 20.84% 51.37% +16.3 2
1968-04-11 Frem D 3-3 1234 1279 45.46% 20.88% 33.65% -0.5 1
1968-04-11 @ Aalborg D 3-3 1279 1234 33.65% 20.88% 45.46% +0.5 2
1968-04-11 Horsens D 2-2 1232 1231 51.36% 20.84% 27.81% -1.2 1
1968-04-11 @ B 1913 D 2-2 1231 1232 27.81% 20.84% 51.36% +1.2 1
1968-04-11 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1260 1284 48.30% 20.87% 30.83% +10.7 4
1968-04-11 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1284 1260 30.83% 20.87% 48.30% -10.7 2
1968-04-11 Hvidovre W 3-1 1295 1296 51.25% 20.84% 27.91% +16.1 4
1968-04-11 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1296 1295 27.91% 20.84% 51.25% -16.1 2
1968-04-11 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1271 1190 60.09% 20.61% 19.30% +11.8 4
1968-04-11 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1190 1271 19.30% 20.61% 60.09% -11.8 0
1968-04-15 Odense W 2-0 1241 1228 52.89% 20.81% 26.30% +17.7 3
1968-04-15 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1228 1241 26.30% 20.81% 52.89% -17.7 0
1968-04-18 B 1913 L 0-2 1179 1230 44.59% 20.89% 34.52% -27.2 0
1968-04-18 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1230 1179 34.52% 20.89% 44.59% +27.2 3
1968-04-20 B 1909 D 2-2 1232 1259 47.94% 20.87% 31.19% -0.9 2
1968-04-20 @ Horsens D 2-2 1259 1232 31.19% 20.87% 47.94% +0.9 4
1968-04-21 Hvidovre W 1-0 1274 1280 50.55% 20.85% 28.60% +10.1 4
1968-04-21 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1280 1274 28.60% 20.85% 50.55% -10.1 2
1968-04-21 Aalborg D 1-1 1271 1233 55.69% 20.75% 23.56% -2.3 5
1968-04-21 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1233 1271 23.56% 20.75% 55.69% +2.3 2
1968-04-21 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1210 1311 37.68% 20.86% 41.46% -11.9 0
1968-04-21 @ Odense W 2-1 1311 1210 41.46% 20.86% 37.68% +11.9 6
1968-04-21 Frem W 2-0 1283 1280 51.67% 20.83% 27.50% +18.4 6
1968-04-21 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1280 1283 27.50% 20.83% 51.67% -18.4 2
1968-04-27 Odense W 2-1 1284 1199 60.51% 20.59% 18.90% +6.7 6
1968-04-27 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1199 1284 18.90% 20.59% 60.51% -6.7 0
1968-04-27 Vejle BK W 2-1 1232 1301 42.14% 20.89% 36.97% +11.7 4
1968-04-27 @ Horsens L 1-2 1301 1232 36.97% 20.89% 42.14% -11.7 6
1968-04-28 KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1260 1323 43.01% 20.89% 36.10% -41.8 4
1968-04-28 @ B 1909 W 5-1 1323 1260 36.10% 20.89% 43.01% +41.8 8
1968-04-28 Aalborg D 3-3 1258 1236 53.91% 20.79% 25.29% -1.3 4
1968-04-28 @ B 1913 D 3-3 1236 1258 25.29% 20.79% 53.91% +1.3 3
1968-04-28 Esbjerg W 2-0 1261 1269 50.38% 20.85% 28.77% +19.1 4
1968-04-28 @ Frem L 0-2 1269 1261 28.77% 20.85% 50.38% -19.1 5
1968-04-28 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1269 1151 63.47% 20.44% 16.09% +11.6 4
1968-04-28 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1151 1269 16.09% 20.44% 63.47% -11.6 0
1968-05-02 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1256 1290 47.00% 20.88% 32.12% -14.2 4
1968-05-02 @ B 1913 W 2-1 1290 1256 32.12% 20.88% 47.00% +14.2 8
1968-05-02 B 1909 L 1-2 1281 1218 58.34% 20.67% 20.99% -17.4 4
1968-05-02 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1218 1281 20.99% 20.67% 58.34% +17.4 6
1968-05-05 Horsens D 1-1 1237 1243 50.52% 20.85% 28.64% -1.5 4
1968-05-05 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1243 1237 28.64% 20.85% 50.52% +1.6 5
1968-05-05 Esbjerg D 0-0 1140 1250 36.44% 20.85% 42.72% +0.5 1
1968-05-05 @ Aarhus GF D 0-0 1250 1140 42.72% 20.85% 36.44% -0.5 6
1968-05-05 Odense W 1-0 1280 1192 60.84% 20.57% 18.58% +7.0 6
1968-05-05 @ Frem L 0-1 1192 1280 18.58% 20.57% 60.84% -7.0 0
1968-05-05 Vejle BK L 1-4 1365 1289 59.62% 20.63% 19.75% -43.5 8
1968-05-05 @ KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1289 1365 19.75% 20.63% 59.62% +43.5 8
1968-05-09 B 1909 L 0-2 1140 1236 38.47% 20.87% 40.66% -24.1 1
1968-05-09 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1236 1140 40.66% 20.87% 38.47% +24.1 8
1968-05-09 B 1913 L 0-1 1185 1242 43.85% 20.89% 35.26% -14.2 0
1968-05-09 @ Odense W 1-0 1242 1185 35.26% 20.89% 43.85% +14.2 6
1968-05-10 Horsens W 3-1 1249 1245 51.82% 20.83% 27.35% +15.8 8
1968-05-10 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1245 1249 27.35% 20.83% 51.82% -15.9 5
1968-05-12 Aalborg W 3-1 1304 1235 58.97% 20.65% 20.38% +12.3 10
1968-05-12 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1235 1304 20.38% 20.65% 58.97% -12.3 4
1968-05-12 Frem L 0-2 1322 1287 55.29% 20.76% 23.94% -33.0 8
1968-05-12 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1287 1322 23.94% 20.76% 55.29% +33.0 8
1968-05-12 Hvidovre W 2-1 1333 1264 58.99% 20.65% 20.36% +7.1 10
1968-05-12 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1264 1333 20.36% 20.65% 58.99% -7.1 4
1968-05-16 B 1913 D 0-0 1265 1256 52.34% 20.82% 26.83% -2.0 9
1968-05-16 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1256 1265 26.83% 20.82% 52.34% +2.0 7
1968-05-16 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1320 1317 51.73% 20.83% 27.44% -15.5 8
1968-05-16 @ Frem W 2-1 1317 1320 27.44% 20.83% 51.73% +15.5 12
1968-05-16 Aarhus GF W 3-0 1171 1116 57.49% 20.70% 21.81% +22.0 2
1968-05-16 @ Odense L 0-3 1116 1171 21.81% 20.70% 57.49% -22.0 1
1968-05-19 Hvidovre L 0-2 1223 1257 47.05% 20.88% 32.08% -28.5 4
1968-05-19 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1257 1223 32.08% 20.88% 47.05% +28.5 6
1968-05-19 Vejle BK W 2-0 1260 1340 40.62% 20.88% 38.50% +24.2 10
1968-05-19 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1340 1260 38.50% 20.88% 40.62% -24.2 10
1968-05-19 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1229 1289 43.53% 20.89% 35.58% -0.6 6
1968-05-19 @ Horsens D 0-0 1289 1229 35.58% 20.89% 43.53% +0.6 9
1968-05-26 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1094 1332 21.09% 20.42% 58.49% +18.4 3
1968-05-26 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1332 1094 58.49% 20.42% 21.09% -18.4 12
1968-05-26 B 1909 W 3-1 1258 1284 48.09% 20.87% 31.04% +17.6 9
1968-05-26 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1284 1258 31.04% 20.87% 48.09% -17.6 10
1968-05-26 Horsens L 1-2 1305 1228 59.70% 20.62% 19.68% -17.8 8
1968-05-26 @ Frem W 2-1 1228 1305 19.68% 20.62% 59.70% +17.8 8
1968-05-26 Esbjerg W 2-0 1285 1263 53.92% 20.79% 25.29% +17.2 8
1968-05-26 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1263 1285 25.29% 20.79% 53.92% -17.2 9
1968-05-26 Aalborg W 2-0 1289 1195 61.41% 20.55% 18.04% +12.8 11
1968-05-26 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1195 1289 18.04% 20.55% 61.41% -12.8 4
1968-05-30 Odense W 2-0 1316 1193 63.90% 20.41% 15.69% +11.3 12
1968-05-30 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1193 1316 15.69% 20.41% 63.90% -11.3 2
1968-06-09 B 1909 D 0-0 1182 1266 40.00% 20.88% 39.12% -0.1 5
1968-06-09 @ Aalborg D 0-0 1266 1182 39.12% 20.88% 40.00% +0.1 11
1968-06-09 Vejle BK L 3-6 1314 1327 49.65% 20.86% 29.49% -29.4 12
1968-06-09 @ AB Gladsaxe W 6-3 1327 1314 29.49% 20.86% 49.65% +29.4 14
1968-06-09 Frem D 1-1 1276 1287 49.93% 20.85% 29.21% -1.5 10
1968-06-09 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1287 1276 29.21% 20.85% 49.93% +1.5 9
1968-06-09 KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1246 1302 44.00% 20.89% 35.12% +27.5 11
1968-06-09 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1302 1246 35.12% 20.89% 44.00% -27.5 11
1968-06-09 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1246 1113 64.73% 20.35% 14.91% -3.8 9
1968-06-09 @ Horsens D 1-1 1113 1246 14.91% 20.35% 64.73% +3.8 4
1968-06-09 Hvidovre L 0-4 1181 1302 34.92% 20.83% 44.25% -42.4 2
1968-06-09 @ Odense W 4-0 1302 1181 44.25% 20.83% 34.92% +42.4 10
1968-06-12 Aalborg L 0-2 1116 1182 42.74% 20.89% 36.37% -26.3 4
1968-06-12 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1182 1116 36.37% 20.89% 42.74% +26.3 7
1968-06-12 Frem D 0-0 1345 1289 57.65% 20.70% 21.66% -3.0 11
1968-06-12 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1289 1345 21.66% 20.70% 57.65% +3.0 10
1968-06-12 Horsens W 5-1 1139 1242 37.33% 20.86% 41.81% +40.8 4
1968-06-12 @ Odense L 1-5 1242 1139 41.81% 20.86% 37.33% -40.8 9
1968-06-12 Esbjerg D 0-0 1357 1273 60.35% 20.60% 19.06% -3.5 15
1968-06-12 @ Vejle BK D 0-0 1273 1357 19.06% 20.60% 60.35% +3.5 12
1968-06-13 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1266 1285 49.04% 20.86% 30.10% +10.5 13
1968-06-13 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1285 1266 30.10% 20.86% 49.04% -10.5 12
1968-06-13 B 1913 W 3-0 1274 1275 51.29% 20.84% 27.87% +27.0 13
1968-06-13 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1275 1274 27.87% 20.84% 51.29% -27.0 10
1968-06-16 Odense W 3-1 1208 1180 54.62% 20.78% 24.61% +14.5 9
1968-06-16 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1180 1208 24.61% 20.78% 54.62% -14.5 4
1968-06-16 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1292 1090 69.48% 19.93% 10.59% -4.6 11
1968-06-16 @ Frem D 1-1 1090 1292 10.59% 19.93% 69.48% +4.6 5
1968-06-16 Hvidovre W 1-0 1202 1342 32.35% 20.79% 46.86% +15.1 11
1968-06-16 @ Horsens L 0-1 1342 1202 46.86% 20.79% 32.35% -15.1 11
1968-06-17 Vejle BK W 3-0 1248 1353 37.03% 20.85% 42.12% +37.7 12
1968-06-17 @ B 1913 L 0-3 1353 1248 42.12% 20.85% 37.03% -37.7 15
1968-06-18 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1274 1301 47.84% 20.87% 31.29% -15.3 12
1968-06-18 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1301 1274 31.29% 20.87% 47.84% +15.3 15
1968-06-18 Esbjerg W 5-4 1277 1277 51.32% 20.84% 27.85% +8.5 15
1968-06-18 @ B 1909 L 4-5 1277 1277 27.85% 20.84% 51.32% -8.5 12
1968-08-15 Horsens D 0-0 1095 1217 34.78% 20.83% 44.39% +0.8 6
1968-08-15 @ Aarhus GF D 0-0 1217 1095 44.39% 20.83% 34.78% -0.7 12
1968-08-15 Hvidovre W 2-0 1285 1327 46.02% 20.88% 33.09% +21.4 17
1968-08-15 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1327 1285 33.09% 20.88% 46.02% -21.4 11
1968-08-18 B 1913 W 3-0 1222 1285 43.08% 20.89% 36.04% +33.3 11
1968-08-18 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1285 1222 36.04% 20.89% 43.08% -33.3 12
1968-08-18 Esbjerg L 1-2 1259 1268 50.11% 20.85% 29.04% -15.1 12
1968-08-18 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1268 1259 29.04% 20.85% 50.11% +15.1 14
1968-08-18 Vejle BK W 1-0 1287 1315 47.70% 20.87% 31.42% +10.9 13
1968-08-18 @ Frem L 0-1 1315 1287 31.42% 20.87% 47.70% -10.9 15
1968-08-18 Odense L 0-2 1317 1165 66.12% 20.25% 13.63% -39.4 15
1968-08-18 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1165 1317 13.63% 20.25% 66.12% +39.5 6
1968-08-21 Aalborg D 2-2 1305 1256 56.87% 20.72% 22.41% -1.9 16
1968-08-21 @ Vejle BK D 2-2 1256 1305 22.41% 20.72% 56.87% +1.9 12
1968-08-22 Aarhus GF W 4-1 1283 1096 68.64% 20.02% 11.34% +10.3 16
1968-08-22 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1096 1283 11.34% 20.02% 68.64% -10.3 6
1968-08-22 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1305 1277 54.57% 20.78% 24.65% -28.2 11
1968-08-22 @ Hvidovre W 3-1 1277 1305 24.65% 20.78% 54.57% +28.2 17
1968-08-25 B 1909 D 2-2 1244 1307 43.02% 20.89% 36.09% -0.3 13
1968-08-25 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1307 1244 36.09% 20.89% 43.02% +0.4 18
1968-08-25 B 1913 W 2-1 1216 1252 46.70% 20.88% 32.42% +10.5 14
1968-08-25 @ Horsens L 1-2 1252 1216 32.42% 20.88% 46.70% -10.5 12
1968-08-25 Frem L 1-2 1205 1298 38.79% 20.87% 40.34% -12.2 6
1968-08-25 @ Odense W 2-1 1298 1205 40.34% 20.87% 38.79% +12.2 15
1968-09-01 Aalborg L 1-2 1307 1258 56.96% 20.72% 22.32% -17.0 18
1968-09-01 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1258 1307 22.32% 20.72% 56.96% +17.0 14
1968-09-01 Frem L 2-3 1226 1310 40.15% 20.88% 38.97% -11.9 14
1968-09-01 @ Horsens W 3-2 1310 1226 38.97% 20.88% 40.15% +11.9 17
1968-09-01 Esbjerg D 2-2 1306 1294 52.74% 20.81% 26.45% -1.4 18
1968-09-01 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1294 1306 26.45% 20.81% 52.74% +1.4 17
1968-09-02 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1241 1085 66.46% 20.22% 13.32% +7.5 14
1968-09-02 @ B 1913 L 2-4 1085 1241 13.32% 20.22% 66.46% -7.5 6
1968-09-03 Vejle BK W 1-0 1193 1303 36.40% 20.85% 42.75% +13.9 8
1968-09-03 @ Odense L 0-1 1303 1193 42.75% 20.85% 36.40% -13.9 16
1968-09-04 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1277 1243 55.24% 20.76% 24.00% +8.2 13
1968-09-04 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1243 1277 24.00% 20.76% 55.24% -8.2 13
1968-09-08 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1275 1235 55.89% 20.75% 23.37% +8.0 16
1968-09-08 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1235 1275 23.37% 20.75% 55.89% -8.0 13
1968-09-08 Hvidovre W 2-1 1295 1285 52.50% 20.82% 26.68% +9.0 19
1968-09-08 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1285 1295 26.68% 20.82% 52.50% -9.0 13
1968-09-08 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1322 1304 53.40% 20.80% 25.80% +8.7 19
1968-09-08 @ Frem L 1-2 1304 1322 25.80% 20.80% 53.40% -8.7 18
1968-09-09 B 1913 L 0-2 1290 1249 56.07% 20.74% 23.19% -33.5 18
1968-09-09 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1249 1290 23.19% 20.74% 56.07% +33.5 16
1968-09-10 Odense L 0-1 1078 1207 33.84% 20.81% 45.34% -11.5 6
1968-09-10 @ Aarhus GF W 1-0 1207 1078 45.34% 20.81% 33.84% +11.5 10
1968-09-11 Horsens W 1-0 1289 1215 59.47% 20.63% 19.90% +7.4 18
1968-09-11 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1215 1289 19.90% 20.63% 59.47% -7.4 14
1968-09-15 Horsens L 0-2 1227 1207 53.67% 20.80% 25.54% -32.1 13
1968-09-15 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1207 1227 25.54% 20.80% 53.67% +32.1 16
1968-09-15 Esbjerg W 1-0 1282 1304 48.59% 20.87% 30.54% +10.6 18
1968-09-15 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1304 1282 30.54% 20.87% 48.59% -10.6 19
1968-09-15 Aarhus GF W 9-0 1296 1066 71.12% 19.72% 9.17% +28.0 20
1968-09-15 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-9 1066 1296 9.17% 19.72% 71.12% -28.0 6
1968-09-15 Aalborg W 3-2 1218 1283 42.83% 20.89% 36.29% +10.9 12
1968-09-15 @ Odense L 2-3 1283 1218 36.29% 20.89% 42.83% -10.9 16
1968-09-15 B 1909 W 3-1 1296 1257 55.86% 20.75% 23.39% +13.9 20
1968-09-15 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1257 1296 23.39% 20.75% 55.86% -13.9 18
1968-09-16 Hvidovre W 2-1 1331 1276 57.47% 20.70% 21.83% +7.6 21
1968-09-16 @ Frem L 1-2 1276 1331 21.83% 20.70% 57.47% -7.6 13
1968-09-22 Frem L 0-3 1195 1338 31.95% 20.78% 47.27% -30.2 13
1968-09-22 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1338 1195 47.27% 20.78% 31.95% +30.2 23
1968-09-22 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1243 1038 69.69% 19.90% 10.41% +3.9 20
1968-09-22 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1038 1243 10.41% 19.90% 69.69% -3.9 6
1968-09-22 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1293 1324 47.45% 20.88% 31.68% -1.1 19
1968-09-22 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1324 1293 31.68% 20.88% 47.45% +1.1 21
1968-09-22 Vejle BK W 2-0 1293 1310 49.24% 20.86% 29.90% +19.7 21
1968-09-22 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1310 1293 29.90% 20.86% 49.24% -19.7 20
1968-09-22 Odense W 2-1 1239 1229 52.54% 20.82% 26.64% +9.0 18
1968-09-22 @ Horsens L 1-2 1229 1239 26.64% 20.82% 52.54% -9.0 12
1968-09-22 Aalborg D 1-1 1269 1272 50.92% 20.84% 28.24% -1.6 14
1968-09-22 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1272 1269 28.24% 20.84% 50.92% +1.6 17
1968-09-28 B 1909 D 0-0 1220 1247 47.94% 20.87% 31.19% -1.3 13
1968-09-28 @ Odense D 0-0 1247 1220 31.19% 20.87% 47.94% +1.3 21
1968-09-29 Esbjerg L 1-2 1273 1313 46.21% 20.88% 32.91% -14.0 17
1968-09-29 @ Aalborg W 2-1 1313 1273 32.91% 20.88% 46.21% +14.0 23
1968-09-29 Hvidovre L 1-2 1034 1267 21.63% 20.45% 57.93% -7.5 6
1968-09-29 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1267 1034 57.93% 20.45% 21.63% +7.5 16
1968-09-29 B 1913 L 2-4 1368 1292 59.68% 20.62% 19.69% -27.5 23
1968-09-29 @ Frem W 4-2 1292 1368 19.69% 20.62% 59.68% +27.5 21
1968-09-29 Horsens W 3-0 1325 1248 59.69% 20.62% 19.68% +20.1 23
1968-09-29 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1248 1325 19.68% 20.62% 59.69% -20.1 18
1968-09-29 AB Gladsaxe L 2-4 1290 1165 64.09% 20.40% 15.51% -29.6 20
1968-09-29 @ Vejle BK W 4-2 1165 1290 15.51% 20.40% 64.09% +29.6 15
1968-10-06 Frem L 1-2 1027 1341 14.66% 19.96% 65.38% -5.3 6
1968-10-06 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1341 1027 65.38% 19.96% 14.66% +5.3 25
1968-10-06 Odense W 3-1 1320 1219 61.97% 20.52% 17.51% +10.8 23
1968-10-06 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1219 1320 17.51% 20.52% 61.97% -10.8 13
1968-10-06 B 1909 W 5-1 1327 1248 59.96% 20.61% 19.43% +21.6 25
1968-10-06 @ Esbjerg L 1-5 1248 1327 19.43% 20.61% 59.96% -21.6 21
1968-10-06 Aalborg L 0-3 1228 1259 47.35% 20.88% 31.77% -41.7 18
1968-10-06 @ Horsens W 3-0 1259 1228 31.77% 20.88% 47.35% +41.7 19
1968-10-06 Vejle BK D 2-2 1274 1261 52.96% 20.81% 26.23% -1.4 17
1968-10-06 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1261 1274 26.23% 20.81% 52.96% +1.4 21
1968-10-06 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1345 1194 66.03% 20.26% 13.71% -20.9 23
1968-10-06 @ KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1194 1345 13.71% 20.26% 66.03% +20.9 17
1968-10-13 Aarhus GF W 3-0 1301 1021 73.64% 19.30% 7.07% +7.7 21
1968-10-13 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1021 1301 7.07% 19.30% 73.64% -7.7 6
1968-10-13 B 1913 L 0-2 1215 1330 35.70% 20.84% 43.46% -22.8 17
1968-10-13 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1330 1215 43.46% 20.84% 35.70% +22.8 25
1968-10-13 Horsens W 3-2 1226 1186 55.92% 20.75% 23.33% +7.6 23
1968-10-13 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1186 1226 23.33% 20.75% 55.92% -7.6 18
1968-10-13 Frem W 4-1 1349 1346 51.64% 20.83% 27.53% +22.5 27
1968-10-13 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1346 1349 27.53% 20.83% 51.64% -22.5 25
1968-10-13 Odense D 1-1 1273 1208 58.57% 20.66% 20.76% -2.8 18
1968-10-13 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1208 1273 20.76% 20.66% 58.57% +2.8 14
1968-10-13 KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1262 1324 43.23% 20.89% 35.89% -32.5 21
1968-10-13 @ Vejle BK W 4-1 1324 1262 35.89% 20.89% 43.23% +32.5 25
1968-10-27 Vejle BK L 0-2 1014 1230 23.36% 20.53% 56.11% -16.0 6
1968-10-27 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1230 1014 56.11% 20.53% 23.36% +16.0 23
1968-10-27 Hvidovre W 2-1 1353 1270 60.31% 20.60% 19.09% +6.7 27
1968-10-27 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1270 1353 19.09% 20.60% 60.31% -6.7 18
1968-10-27 Aalborg W 5-2 1323 1309 53.07% 20.81% 26.12% +18.7 27
1968-10-27 @ Frem L 2-5 1309 1323 26.12% 20.81% 53.07% -18.7 21
1968-10-27 Esbjerg W 2-0 1179 1371 25.93% 20.63% 53.44% +31.9 20
1968-10-27 @ Horsens L 0-2 1371 1179 53.44% 20.63% 25.93% -31.9 27
1968-10-27 B 1909 W 4-2 1356 1234 63.83% 20.41% 15.76% +8.8 27
1968-10-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1234 1356 15.76% 20.41% 63.83% -8.8 23
1968-10-27 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1211 1192 53.48% 20.80% 25.72% -2.2 15
1968-10-27 @ Odense D 0-0 1192 1211 25.72% 20.80% 53.48% +2.2 18
1968-11-03 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1290 1365 41.35% 20.88% 37.77% -12.8 21
1968-11-03 @ Aalborg W 2-1 1365 1290 37.77% 20.88% 41.35% +12.8 29
1968-11-03 Aarhus GF W 3-0 1195 998 69.21% 19.96% 10.83% +11.7 20
1968-11-03 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 998 1195 10.83% 19.96% 69.21% -11.7 6
1968-11-03 Frem L 2-3 1225 1342 35.45% 20.84% 43.71% -10.7 23
1968-11-03 @ B 1909 W 3-2 1342 1225 43.71% 20.84% 35.45% +10.7 29
1968-11-03 Odense W 4-2 1339 1208 64.52% 20.37% 15.11% +8.5 29
1968-11-03 @ Esbjerg L 2-4 1208 1339 15.11% 20.37% 64.52% -8.5 15
1968-11-03 Horsens W 2-1 1264 1211 57.29% 20.71% 22.00% +7.6 20
1968-11-03 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1211 1264 22.00% 20.71% 57.29% -7.6 20
1968-11-03 B 1913 W 2-0 1246 1360 35.83% 20.84% 43.33% +26.6 25
1968-11-03 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1360 1246 43.33% 20.84% 35.83% -26.6 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1968-08-18 13.63% Odense 1165 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1317 0
2 1968-10-06 13.71% AB Gladsaxe 1194 1 @ KB Copenhagen 1345 0
3 1968-09-29 15.51% AB Gladsaxe 1165 4 @ Vejle BK 1290 2
4 1968-05-26 19.68% Horsens 1228 2 @ Frem 1305 1
5 1968-09-29 19.69% B 1913 1292 4 @ Frem 1368 2
6 1968-05-05 19.75% Vejle BK 1289 4 @ KB Copenhagen 1365 1
7 1968-05-02 20.99% B 1909 1218 2 @ Hvidovre 1281 1
8 1968-05-26 21.09% @ Aarhus GF 1094 1 AB Gladsaxe 1332 0
9 1968-09-01 22.32% Aalborg 1258 2 @ B 1909 1307 1
10 1968-09-09 23.19% B 1913 1249 2 @ B 1909 1290 0
11 1968-05-12 23.94% Frem 1287 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1322 0
12 1968-08-22 24.65% KB Copenhagen 1277 3 @ Hvidovre 1305 1
13 1968-09-15 25.54% Horsens 1207 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1227 0
14 1968-10-27 25.93% @ Horsens 1179 2 Esbjerg 1371 0
15 1968-05-16 27.44% AB Gladsaxe 1317 2 @ Frem 1320 1
16 1968-04-07 27.79% Esbjerg 1244 1 @ Odense 1245 0
17 1968-04-07 28.68% Vejle BK 1256 2 @ Aalborg 1249 1
18 1968-08-18 29.04% Esbjerg 1268 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1259 1
19 1968-06-09 29.49% Vejle BK 1327 6 @ AB Gladsaxe 1314 3
20 1968-04-07 30.23% KB Copenhagen 1252 3 @ Aarhus GF 1233 0
21 1968-04-07 30.82% AB Gladsaxe 1270 2 @ Horsens 1246 1
22 1968-06-18 31.29% KB Copenhagen 1301 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1274 0
23 1968-10-06 31.77% Aalborg 1259 3 @ Horsens 1228 0
24 1968-05-19 32.08% Hvidovre 1257 2 @ Aalborg 1223 0
25 1968-05-02 32.12% AB Gladsaxe 1290 2 @ B 1913 1256 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-05-05 43.51 Vejle BK 4 1289 19.75% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1365 59.62% 20.63%
2 1968-04-07 42.86 KB Copenhagen 3 1252 30.23% @ Aarhus GF 0 1233 48.91% 20.86%
3 1968-06-09 42.40 Hvidovre 4 1302 44.25% @ Odense 0 1181 34.92% 20.83%
4 1968-04-28 41.79 KB Copenhagen 5 1323 36.10% @ B 1909 1 1260 43.01% 20.89%
5 1968-10-06 41.66 Aalborg 3 1259 31.77% @ Horsens 0 1228 47.35% 20.88%
6 1968-06-12 40.83 @ Odense 5 1139 37.33% Horsens 1 1242 41.81% 20.86%
7 1968-08-18 39.45 Odense 2 1165 13.63% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1317 66.12% 20.25%
8 1968-06-17 37.72 @ B 1913 3 1248 37.03% Vejle BK 0 1353 42.12% 20.85%
9 1968-09-09 33.47 B 1913 2 1249 23.19% @ B 1909 0 1290 56.07% 20.74%
10 1968-08-18 33.31 @ Aalborg 3 1222 43.08% B 1913 0 1285 36.04% 20.89%
11 1968-05-12 33.02 Frem 2 1287 23.94% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1322 55.29% 20.76%
12 1968-10-13 32.50 KB Copenhagen 4 1324 35.89% @ Vejle BK 1 1262 43.23% 20.89%
13 1968-09-15 32.11 Horsens 2 1207 25.54% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1227 53.67% 20.80%
14 1968-10-27 31.93 @ Horsens 2 1179 25.93% Esbjerg 0 1371 53.44% 20.63%
15 1968-09-22 30.19 Frem 3 1338 47.27% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1195 31.95% 20.78%
16 1968-09-29 29.59 AB Gladsaxe 4 1165 15.51% @ Vejle BK 2 1290 64.09% 20.40%
17 1968-06-09 29.37 Vejle BK 6 1327 29.49% @ AB Gladsaxe 3 1314 49.65% 20.86%
18 1968-05-19 28.52 Hvidovre 2 1257 32.08% @ Aalborg 0 1223 47.05% 20.88%
19 1968-08-22 28.25 KB Copenhagen 3 1277 24.65% @ Hvidovre 1 1305 54.57% 20.78%
20 1968-09-15 28.03 @ KB Copenhagen 9 1296 71.12% Aarhus GF 0 1066 9.17% 19.72%
21 1968-09-29 27.55 B 1913 4 1292 19.69% @ Frem 2 1368 59.68% 20.62%
22 1968-06-09 27.51 @ Esbjerg 4 1246 44.00% KB Copenhagen 1 1302 35.12% 20.89%
23 1968-04-18 27.25 B 1913 2 1230 34.52% @ Aarhus GF 0 1179 44.59% 20.89%
24 1968-06-13 27.02 @ KB Copenhagen 3 1274 51.29% B 1913 0 1275 27.87% 20.84%
25 1968-11-03 26.59 @ Vejle BK 2 1246 35.83% B 1913 0 1360 43.33% 20.84%