1967 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

AB Gladsaxe

31 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1951-52

Relegated

Boge BK

14 pts

B 1903 · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

AB Gladsaxe

7.78 points above expected

31 points · 23.22 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Odense

6.49 points below expected

17 points · 23.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe Champion	22	14	3	5	31	42	28	+14	23.22	+7.78
2	Frem	22	12	5	5	29	43	24	+19	23.98	+5.02
3	Horsens	22	11	6	5	28	36	44	-8	22.45	+5.55
4	Hvidovre	22	9	9	4	27	32	18	+14	25.56	+1.44
5	Aalborg	22	7	9	6	23	38	36	+2	21.67	+1.33
6	Esbjerg	22	9	4	9	22	32	36	-4	20.92	+1.08
7	Vejle BK	22	9	3	10	21	44	40	+4	21.83	-0.83
8	KB Copenhagen	22	7	7	8	21	34	30	+4	21.92	-0.92
9	Odense	22	4	9	9	17	23	41	-18	23.49	-6.49
10	Aarhus GF	22	6	4	12	16	36	44	-8	20.06	-4.06
11	B 1903 Relegated	22	5	5	12	15	35	41	-6	19.67	-4.67
12	Koge BK	22	4	6	12	14	30	43	-13	19.23	-5.23

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Frem	1303	29	23.98	+5.02	91.9%	11	18	21	24	27	30	37
Hvidovre	1302	27	25.56	+1.44	68.5%	11	19	23	26	28	32	39
AB Gladsaxe	1280	31	23.22	+7.78	98.4%	9	17	21	23	26	30	37
Vejle BK	1245	21	21.83	-0.83	46.9%	7	15	19	22	25	28	36
KB Copenhagen	1237	21	21.92	-0.92	45.9%	8	15	19	22	25	28	36
Aalborg	1230	23	21.67	+1.33	67.5%	6	15	19	22	24	28	37
Horsens	1228	28	22.45	+5.55	94.0%	6	16	20	22	25	29	37
Odense	1222	17	23.49	-6.49	6.2%	10	17	21	23	26	30	38
Esbjerg	1220	22	20.92	+1.08	65.7%	6	14	18	21	24	27	35
B 1903	1205	15	19.67	-4.67	14.2%	6	13	17	20	22	26	35
Aarhus GF	1188	16	20.06	-4.06	17.9%	6	14	17	20	23	26	35
Koge BK	1165	14	19.23	-5.23	11.5%	6	13	17	19	22	26	35

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AAL	AG	B1	ESB	FRE	HOR	HVI	KC	KB	ODE	VB
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 3.26	1-0-1 3.27	0-1-1 3.14	2-0-0 2.60	1-0-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.47	2-0-0 2.82	2-0-0 3.22	1-1-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.98
Aalborg	1-0-1 2.54	—	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 2.81	0-0-2 2.80	0-1-1 2.48	0-2-0 2.61	0-1-1 2.24	1-1-0 2.62	0-2-0 2.96	0-2-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.62
Aarhus GF	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 2.50	—	1-1-0 2.84	0-1-1 2.68	0-0-2 2.13	1-1-0 2.44	1-0-1 2.01	1-0-1 2.47	0-0-2 2.93	1-0-1 2.33	0-1-1 2.50
B 1903	1-0-1 2.18	0-0-2 2.63	0-1-1 2.60	—	1-0-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.26	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 2.04	0-2-0 2.42	1-1-0 2.78	0-1-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.40
Esbjerg	1-1-0 2.30	2-0-0 2.64	1-1-0 2.76	1-0-1 2.87	—	0-1-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.16	0-0-2 2.66	2-0-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.52	0-0-2 2.72
Frem	0-0-2 2.84	1-1-0 2.96	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.19	1-1-0 3.18	—	0-1-1 2.96	0-0-2 2.51	0-2-0 2.99	2-0-0 3.14	2-0-0 3.08	2-0-0 2.86
Horsens	1-0-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.84	0-1-1 3.00	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 2.87	1-1-0 2.48	—	1-1-0 2.27	2-0-0 2.80	2-0-0 3.19	1-1-0 2.37	1-0-1 2.96
Hvidovre	0-1-1 2.97	1-1-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.44	2-0-0 3.41	2-0-0 3.29	2-0-0 2.93	0-1-1 3.17	—	1-1-0 3.16	0-2-0 3.58	0-2-0 2.93	0-1-1 3.16
KB Copenhagen	0-0-2 2.62	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.97	0-2-0 3.03	2-0-0 2.78	0-2-0 2.45	0-0-2 2.64	0-1-1 2.28	—	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.70
Koge BK	0-0-2 2.23	0-2-0 2.48	2-0-0 2.51	0-1-1 2.66	0-0-2 2.59	0-0-2 2.31	0-0-2 2.26	0-2-0 1.88	0-0-2 2.43	—	1-1-0 2.09	1-0-1 2.31
Odense	0-1-1 3.01	0-2-0 2.60	1-0-1 3.12	1-1-0 3.18	0-1-1 2.92	0-0-2 2.36	0-1-1 3.07	0-2-0 2.51	1-0-1 3.00	0-1-1 3.36	—	1-0-1 3.00
Vejle BK	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-2 2.82	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 3.04	2-0-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.58	1-0-1 2.48	1-1-0 2.29	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 2.44	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.28	+5.1
Allowed	0.44	-4.5
Differential	0.58	+3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.82%	5.30%	5.68%	1.14%	0.38%	1.52%	20.83%
1	5.30%	12.88%	6.44%	6.44%	2.65%	1.14%	34.85%
2	5.68%	6.44%	6.06%	2.27%	1.52%	—	21.97%
3	1.14%	6.44%	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	0.38%	12.50%
4	0.38%	2.65%	1.52%	1.52%	—	0.38%	6.44%
5+	1.52%	1.14%	—	0.38%	0.38%	—	3.41%
Total	20.83%	34.85%	21.97%	12.50%	6.44%	3.41%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.61	+0.00
SD	1.37	1.37	1.95
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	22.73%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	22.73%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.27	+0.64
SD	1.66	1.49	2.17
CV	0.87	1.17	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	31.82%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	54.55%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	50.00%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	1.64	+0.09
SD	1.35	1.29	1.82
CV	0.78	0.79	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	—	—	18.18%	13.64%	—	4.55%	36.36%
2	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	18.18%	40.91%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.00	-0.36
SD	1.43	1.31	2.22
CV	0.88	0.65	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	36.36%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	36.36%	18.18%	13.64%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.86	-0.27
SD	1.53	1.36	2.19
CV	0.96	0.73	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
3	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	36.36%	22.73%	27.27%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.64	-0.18
SD	1.37	1.05	1.82
CV	0.94	0.64	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.18%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	50.00%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.09	+0.86
SD	1.25	0.81	1.39
CV	0.64	0.74	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.00	-0.36
SD	1.29	2.07	2.54
CV	0.79	1.04	—
Max	5	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	54.55%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	50.00%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	0.82	+0.64
SD	1.37	0.80	1.53
CV	0.94	0.97	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	36.36%	31.82%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.36	+0.18
SD	1.10	1.14	1.22
CV	0.71	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	59.09%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.95	-0.59
SD	1.29	1.33	1.89
CV	0.95	0.68	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	—	22.73%	—	—	4.55%	40.91%
1	—	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.86	-0.82
SD	1.13	1.58	1.89
CV	1.08	0.85	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	—	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	27.27%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.82	+0.18
SD	1.54	1.40	1.99
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe	31	23.22	+7.78
2	Horsens	28	22.45	+5.55
3	Frem	29	23.98	+5.02
4	Hvidovre	27	25.56	+1.44
5	Aalborg	23	21.67	+1.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Odense	17	23.49	-6.49
2	Koge BK	14	19.23	-5.23
3	B 1903	15	19.67	-4.67
4	Aarhus GF	16	20.06	-4.06
5	KB Copenhagen	21	21.92	-0.92

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hvidovre	6	Jun 15 – Sep 7	1 in 122
2	AB Gladsaxe	4	Jun 18 – Sep 3	1 in 54
3	Aarhus GF	3	May 29 – Jun 11	1 in 45
4	Aalborg	3	May 28 – Jun 11	1 in 28
5	Vejle BK	3	Oct 15 – Nov 5	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Odense	4	May 21 – Jun 12	1 in 122
2	Vejle BK	4	May 28 – Jun 18	1 in 100
3	B 1903	5	Apr 2 – Apr 30	1 in 79
4	Aarhus GF	4	Oct 8 – Nov 5	1 in 36
5	Horsens	3	Jun 18 – Aug 27	1 in 34

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hvidovre	16	Apr 2 – Sep 10	1 in 227
2	Horsens	8	Apr 2 – May 28	1 in 24
3	AB Gladsaxe	8	Jun 18 – Oct 1	1 in 21
4	Aalborg	6	May 21 – Aug 20	1 in 19
5	Frem	7	Apr 15 – Jun 12	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hvidovre	6	Sep 10 – Oct 29	1 in 53
2	Odense	7	May 7 – Aug 20	1 in 39
3	KB Copenhagen	7	Sep 3 – Oct 15	1 in 20
4	Aalborg	6	Sep 17 – Nov 5	1 in 17
5	Koge BK	8	Aug 20 – Oct 8	1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
AB Gladsaxe	12.27%	11.98%	12.05%	10.15%	10.29%	8.75%	7.95%	7.14%	6.63%	4.99%	4.69%	3.11%
Frem	16.77%	14.46%	12.14%	10.98%	9.92%	7.91%	7.40%	5.99%	4.95%	4.48%	3.17%	1.83%
Horsens	6.58%	8.82%	9.20%	9.30%	9.54%	8.92%	9.50%	8.75%	8.73%	7.93%	7.02%	5.71%
Hvidovre	27.80%	18.76%	12.83%	10.11%	7.38%	6.41%	5.07%	4.00%	2.95%	2.21%	1.53%	0.95%
Aalborg	5.24%	6.87%	8.39%	8.91%	8.89%	9.78%	8.85%	9.68%	9.36%	8.61%	8.24%	7.18%
Esbjerg	3.61%	5.34%	6.05%	6.84%	8.20%	8.41%	9.30%	9.59%	10.49%	11.25%	10.53%	10.39%
Vejle BK	5.75%	7.31%	9.08%	8.98%	9.47%	9.05%	9.55%	9.42%	8.75%	8.49%	7.75%	6.40%
KB Copenhagen	6.44%	7.45%	8.35%	8.93%	9.48%	9.78%	9.57%	9.81%	8.46%	8.41%	7.07%	6.25%
Odense	10.53%	10.17%	10.63%	10.27%	9.67%	9.68%	8.65%	7.80%	7.38%	6.27%	5.27%	3.68%
Aarhus GF	2.07%	3.31%	4.16%	5.70%	6.34%	7.62%	8.72%	10.32%	10.75%	12.10%	13.68%	15.23%
B 1903	1.71%	3.23%	3.84%	5.32%	5.69%	7.41%	8.18%	9.22%	10.65%	12.81%	14.92%	17.02%
Koge BK	1.23%	2.30%	3.28%	4.51%	5.13%	6.28%	7.26%	8.28%	10.90%	12.45%	16.13%	22.25%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.30%

Slight Edge

39.39%26.52%34.09%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 18.44 Elo pts.

714 Elo

0.001 goals per Elo point

02000

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.11 goals

Neutral

-2+0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.7

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

12%

AB Gladsaxe, 3rd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.13 * Some Luck: 3.13 to 4.7 * Lucky: 4.7 to 6.27 * Wild Swing: 6.27 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.35 * Close: 2.35 to 3.53 * Off: 3.53 to 4.71 * Way Off: 4.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.3 * A Surprise: 1.3 to 2.07 * Several Surprises: 2.07 to 2.85 * Many Surprises: 2.85 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.39 points

Some Luck

03.9210

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

Pinpoint

02.946

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.39%

AB Gladsaxe

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.16%

Odense

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.23

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

55%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

69%

Even

50%70%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Very Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Occasional

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.652

Matchup Imbalance

0.17

Slight Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.25

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.53

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Shaky Favorites

0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.68

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.76

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.034

Well Within Noise

00.1300.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Hvidovre	97.52%	2.48%
Frem	95.00%	5.00%
AB Gladsaxe	92.20%	7.80%
Odense	91.05%	8.95%
Horsens	87.27%	12.73%
KB Copenhagen	86.68%	13.32%
Vejle BK	85.85%	14.15%
Aalborg	84.58%	15.42%
Esbjerg	79.08%	20.92%
Aarhus GF	71.09%	28.91%
B 1903	68.06%	31.94%
Koge BK	61.62%	38.38%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1967-04-02	Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1218	1197	42.64%	27.98%	29.38%	-13.2	0
1967-04-02	@ Aalborg	W 4-1	1197	1218	29.38%	27.98%	42.64%	+13.2	2
1967-04-02	Odense	D 0-0	1226	1318	27.54%	27.63%	44.83%	+0.5	1
1967-04-02	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1318	1226	44.83%	27.63%	27.54%	-0.5	1
1967-04-02	B 1903	W 2-0	1266	1211	47.16%	27.62%	25.22%	+7.3	2
1967-04-02	@ Horsens	L 0-2	1211	1266	25.22%	27.62%	47.16%	-7.3	0
1967-04-02	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1266	1221	45.89%	27.75%	26.36%	-0.5	1
1967-04-02	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1221	1266	26.36%	27.75%	45.89%	+0.5	1
1967-04-02	Frem	L 0-3	1203	1239	34.76%	28.09%	37.15%	-13.5	0
1967-04-02	@ Koge BK	W 3-0	1239	1203	37.15%	28.09%	34.76%	+13.5	2
1967-04-05	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1233	1228	40.45%	28.07%	31.48%	-10.4	0
1967-04-05	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1228	1233	31.48%	28.07%	40.45%	+10.4	2
1967-04-09	B 1903	W 1-0	1204	1203	39.95%	28.08%	31.97%	+4.6	2
1967-04-09	@ Aalborg	L 0-1	1203	1204	31.97%	28.08%	39.95%	-4.6	0
1967-04-09	Esbjerg	W 3-1	1221	1222	39.72%	28.09%	32.19%	+7.6	3
1967-04-09	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1222	1221	32.19%	28.09%	39.72%	-7.6	0
1967-04-09	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1190	1210	36.98%	28.11%	34.91%	+8.0	2
1967-04-09	@ Koge BK	L 1-3	1210	1190	34.91%	28.11%	36.98%	-8.1	2
1967-04-09	Horsens	D 0-0	1317	1273	45.72%	27.76%	26.52%	-0.6	2
1967-04-09	@ Odense	D 0-0	1273	1317	26.52%	27.76%	45.72%	+0.6	3
1967-04-09	Hvidovre	D 0-0	1239	1266	36.02%	28.11%	35.87%	+0.0	3
1967-04-09	@ Vejle BK	D 0-0	1266	1239	35.87%	28.11%	36.02%	+0.0	2
1967-04-11	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1253	1227	43.33%	27.94%	28.73%	-5.2	2
1967-04-11	@ Frem	W 3-2	1227	1253	28.73%	27.94%	43.33%	+5.2	3
1967-04-15	Frem	L 1-3	1199	1247	33.02%	28.03%	38.94%	-7.7	0
1967-04-15	@ B 1903	W 3-1	1247	1199	38.94%	28.03%	33.02%	+7.7	4
1967-04-16	Koge BK	W 1-0	1232	1198	44.46%	27.86%	27.68%	+4.1	5
1967-04-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1198	1232	27.68%	27.86%	44.46%	-4.2	2
1967-04-16	Hvidovre	L 0-3	1215	1266	32.69%	28.02%	39.29%	-12.9	0
1967-04-16	@ Esbjerg	W 3-0	1266	1215	39.29%	28.02%	32.69%	+12.9	4
1967-04-16	Aalborg	D 1-1	1274	1209	48.36%	27.49%	24.15%	-0.7	4
1967-04-16	@ Horsens	D 1-1	1209	1274	24.15%	27.49%	48.36%	+0.7	3
1967-04-16	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1317	1229	51.09%	27.11%	21.80%	-12.5	2
1967-04-16	@ Odense	W 2-0	1229	1317	21.80%	27.11%	51.09%	+12.5	5
1967-04-18	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1202	1239	34.70%	28.08%	37.22%	-8.0	2
1967-04-18	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1239	1202	37.22%	28.08%	34.70%	+8.0	5
1967-04-23	Koge BK	W 3-1	1202	1194	40.97%	28.05%	30.98%	+7.4	2
1967-04-23	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1194	1202	30.98%	28.05%	40.97%	-7.4	2
1967-04-23	Aalborg	D 1-1	1255	1210	45.92%	27.74%	26.34%	-0.5	5
1967-04-23	@ Frem	D 1-1	1210	1255	26.34%	27.74%	45.92%	+0.5	4
1967-04-23	Horsens	D 1-1	1279	1273	40.57%	28.06%	31.37%	-0.2	5
1967-04-23	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1273	1279	31.37%	28.06%	40.57%	+0.2	5
1967-04-24	Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1191	1194	39.43%	28.09%	32.48%	-4.8	0
1967-04-24	@ B 1903	W 3-2	1194	1191	32.48%	28.09%	39.43%	+4.8	4
1967-04-25	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1242	1236	40.58%	28.06%	31.36%	-5.5	5
1967-04-25	@ KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1236	1242	31.36%	28.06%	40.58%	+5.5	7
1967-04-25	Odense	W 2-0	1247	1304	31.80%	27.97%	40.23%	+10.3	7
1967-04-25	@ Vejle BK	L 0-2	1304	1247	40.23%	27.97%	31.80%	-10.3	2
1967-04-30	Frem	D 2-2	1274	1255	42.42%	27.99%	29.59%	-0.3	6
1967-04-30	@ Horsens	D 2-2	1255	1274	29.59%	27.99%	42.42%	+0.2	6
1967-04-30	AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1278	1242	44.76%	27.84%	27.40%	-0.5	6
1967-04-30	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1242	1278	27.40%	27.84%	44.76%	+0.5	8
1967-04-30	Vejle BK	W 1-0	1236	1257	36.92%	28.11%	34.97%	+4.9	7
1967-04-30	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1257	1236	34.97%	28.11%	36.92%	-4.9	7
1967-04-30	Aalborg	D 1-1	1186	1210	36.49%	28.11%	35.40%	-0.0	3
1967-04-30	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1210	1186	35.40%	28.11%	36.49%	+0.0	5
1967-04-30	B 1903	W 4-2	1294	1186	53.36%	26.71%	19.93%	+4.6	4
1967-04-30	@ Odense	L 2-4	1186	1294	19.93%	26.71%	53.36%	-4.6	0
1967-05-02	Esbjerg	L 1-2	1199	1209	38.41%	28.11%	33.49%	-5.0	4
1967-05-02	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1209	1199	33.49%	28.11%	38.41%	+5.0	4
1967-05-07	Esbjerg	L 0-1	1210	1214	39.28%	28.10%	32.63%	-5.4	5
1967-05-07	@ Aalborg	W 1-0	1214	1210	32.63%	28.10%	39.28%	+5.4	6
1967-05-07	Aarhus GF	W 4-0	1242	1194	46.27%	27.71%	26.02%	+14.1	10
1967-05-07	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-4	1194	1242	26.02%	27.71%	46.27%	-14.1	4
1967-05-07	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1299	1278	42.68%	27.97%	29.35%	-0.4	5
1967-05-07	@ Odense	D 1-1	1278	1299	29.35%	27.97%	42.68%	+0.4	7
1967-05-08	Koge BK	D 1-1	1182	1186	39.21%	28.10%	32.69%	-0.2	1
1967-05-08	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1186	1182	32.69%	28.10%	39.21%	+0.2	4
1967-05-09	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1255	1241	41.75%	28.02%	30.23%	-0.3	7
1967-05-09	@ Frem	D 1-1	1241	1255	30.23%	28.02%	41.75%	+0.3	8
1967-05-10	Horsens	L 4-5	1252	1273	36.85%	28.11%	35.04%	-4.4	7
1967-05-10	@ Vejle BK	W 5-4	1273	1252	35.04%	28.11%	36.85%	+4.4	8
1967-05-21	Frem	L 1-2	1180	1255	29.60%	27.83%	42.58%	-4.1	4
1967-05-21	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1255	1180	42.58%	27.83%	29.60%	+4.1	9
1967-05-21	B 1903	L 0-2	1220	1182	44.95%	27.82%	27.23%	-11.3	6
1967-05-21	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1182	1220	27.23%	27.82%	44.95%	+11.3	3
1967-05-21	Aalborg	D 1-1	1278	1205	49.38%	27.36%	23.27%	-0.7	8
1967-05-21	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1205	1278	23.27%	27.36%	49.38%	+0.7	6
1967-05-21	Horsens	L 3-4	1241	1278	34.71%	28.08%	37.21%	-4.3	8
1967-05-21	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-3	1278	1241	37.21%	28.08%	34.71%	+4.3	10
1967-05-21	Odense	W 5-1	1186	1298	25.22%	27.33%	47.45%	+18.6	6
1967-05-21	@ Koge BK	L 1-5	1298	1186	47.45%	27.33%	25.22%	-18.6	5
1967-05-21	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1248	1256	38.61%	28.11%	33.28%	+4.3	9
1967-05-21	@ Vejle BK	L 2-3	1256	1248	33.28%	28.11%	38.61%	-4.2	10
1967-05-28	KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1206	1237	35.40%	28.10%	36.50%	+4.8	8
1967-05-28	@ Aalborg	L 1-2	1237	1206	36.50%	28.10%	35.40%	-4.8	8
1967-05-28	Esbjerg	L 0-2	1252	1208	45.69%	27.76%	26.55%	-11.4	10
1967-05-28	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1208	1252	26.55%	27.76%	45.69%	+11.4	8
1967-05-28	Vejle BK	W 4-2	1259	1252	40.79%	28.06%	31.15%	+6.6	11
1967-05-28	@ Frem	L 2-4	1252	1259	31.15%	28.06%	40.79%	-6.6	9
1967-05-28	Koge BK	W 2-1	1282	1205	49.81%	27.30%	22.89%	+3.4	12
1967-05-28	@ Horsens	L 1-2	1205	1282	22.89%	27.30%	49.81%	-3.4	6
1967-05-29	Hvidovre	L 1-4	1193	1277	28.38%	27.72%	43.91%	-9.7	3
1967-05-29	@ B 1903	W 4-1	1277	1193	43.91%	27.72%	28.38%	+9.7	10
1967-05-29	Aarhus GF	L 0-6	1280	1176	52.94%	26.79%	20.27%	-35.9	5
1967-05-29	@ Odense	W 6-0	1176	1280	20.27%	26.79%	52.94%	+35.9	6
1967-06-07	Horsens	W 2-0	1212	1285	29.73%	27.84%	42.44%	+10.7	8
1967-06-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1285	1212	42.44%	27.84%	29.73%	-10.7	12
1967-06-07	Odense	W 3-1	1220	1244	36.46%	28.11%	35.43%	+8.1	10
1967-06-07	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1244	1220	35.43%	28.11%	36.46%	-8.1	5
1967-06-07	Koge BK	W 4-1	1232	1202	43.97%	27.90%	28.13%	+9.7	10
1967-06-07	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1202	1232	28.13%	27.90%	43.97%	-9.7	6
1967-06-08	B 1903	W 1-0	1241	1183	47.44%	27.59%	24.96%	+3.8	12
1967-06-08	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1183	1241	24.96%	27.59%	47.44%	-3.8	3
1967-06-08	Aalborg	L 1-3	1245	1210	44.54%	27.86%	27.61%	-9.7	9
1967-06-08	@ Vejle BK	W 3-1	1210	1245	27.61%	27.86%	44.54%	+9.7	10
1967-06-11	AB Gladsaxe	W 5-0	1220	1245	36.39%	28.11%	35.50%	+22.0	12
1967-06-11	@ Aalborg	L 0-5	1245	1220	35.50%	28.11%	36.39%	-22.0	12
1967-06-11	KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1222	1242	37.10%	28.11%	34.79%	+4.6	10
1967-06-11	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1242	1222	34.79%	28.11%	37.10%	-4.6	10
1967-06-11	Vejle BK	W 3-1	1179	1236	31.99%	27.98%	40.02%	+8.9	5
1967-06-11	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1236	1179	40.02%	27.98%	31.99%	-8.9	9
1967-06-11	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1192	1287	27.11%	27.58%	45.31%	+0.5	7
1967-06-11	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1287	1192	45.31%	27.58%	27.11%	-0.5	11
1967-06-12	Odense	W 4-2	1265	1236	43.85%	27.90%	28.25%	+6.2	13
1967-06-12	@ Frem	L 2-4	1236	1265	28.25%	27.90%	43.85%	-6.2	5
1967-06-14	Esbjerg	W 3-1	1275	1228	46.07%	27.73%	26.20%	+6.5	14
1967-06-14	@ Horsens	L 1-3	1228	1275	26.20%	27.73%	46.07%	-6.5	10
1967-06-14	B 1903	D 0-0	1237	1188	46.37%	27.70%	25.93%	-0.6	11
1967-06-14	@ KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1188	1237	25.93%	27.70%	46.37%	+0.6	6
1967-06-15	Frem	W 1-0	1287	1271	41.92%	28.01%	30.07%	+4.4	13
1967-06-15	@ Hvidovre	L 0-1	1271	1287	30.07%	28.01%	41.92%	-4.4	13
1967-06-18	Horsens	W 6-0	1223	1281	31.69%	27.97%	40.34%	+28.7	14
1967-06-18	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-6	1281	1223	40.34%	27.97%	31.69%	-28.7	14
1967-06-18	Frem	D 1-1	1221	1267	33.42%	28.05%	38.53%	+0.1	11
1967-06-18	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1267	1221	38.53%	28.05%	33.42%	-0.1	14
1967-06-18	Aarhus GF	W 5-1	1291	1227	48.24%	27.50%	24.26%	+11.1	15
1967-06-18	@ Hvidovre	L 1-5	1227	1291	24.26%	27.50%	48.24%	-11.1	10
1967-06-18	Aalborg	D 1-1	1230	1242	38.10%	28.11%	33.78%	-0.1	6
1967-06-18	@ Odense	D 1-1	1242	1230	33.78%	28.11%	38.10%	+0.1	13
1967-06-18	Koge BK	L 1-4	1227	1192	44.44%	27.86%	27.69%	-13.7	9
1967-06-18	@ Vejle BK	W 4-1	1192	1227	27.69%	27.86%	44.44%	+13.7	9
1967-08-17	Hvidovre	L 0-1	1267	1302	34.86%	28.09%	37.05%	-4.9	14
1967-08-17	@ Frem	W 1-0	1302	1267	37.05%	28.09%	34.86%	+4.9	17
1967-08-17	Vejle BK	L 1-6	1252	1213	45.13%	27.81%	27.06%	-21.9	14
1967-08-17	@ Horsens	W 6-1	1213	1252	27.06%	27.81%	45.13%	+21.9	11
1967-08-20	Koge BK	D 0-0	1242	1206	44.68%	27.85%	27.47%	-0.5	14
1967-08-20	@ Aalborg	D 0-0	1206	1242	27.47%	27.85%	44.68%	+0.5	10
1967-08-20	B 1903	D 2-2	1216	1189	43.51%	27.93%	28.56%	-0.3	11
1967-08-20	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1189	1216	28.56%	27.93%	43.51%	+0.3	7
1967-08-20	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1222	1237	37.73%	28.11%	34.16%	-9.8	11
1967-08-20	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1237	1222	34.16%	28.11%	37.73%	+9.8	13
1967-08-20	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1229	1251	36.78%	28.11%	35.11%	-9.7	6
1967-08-20	@ Odense	W 2-0	1251	1229	35.11%	28.11%	36.78%	+9.7	16
1967-08-27	Odense	L 0-2	1216	1220	39.26%	28.10%	32.65%	-10.1	11
1967-08-27	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1220	1216	32.65%	28.10%	39.26%	+10.1	8
1967-08-27	Aalborg	W 3-1	1261	1242	42.48%	27.98%	29.54%	+7.1	18
1967-08-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1242	1261	29.54%	27.98%	42.48%	-7.1	14
1967-08-27	Horsens	W 7-0	1189	1231	34.00%	28.07%	37.93%	+31.7	9
1967-08-27	@ B 1903	L 0-7	1231	1189	37.93%	28.07%	34.00%	-31.7	14
1967-08-27	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1307	1212	51.97%	26.96%	21.07%	+6.3	19
1967-08-27	@ Hvidovre	L 0-2	1212	1307	21.07%	26.96%	51.97%	-6.3	11
1967-08-27	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1207	1246	34.23%	28.07%	37.70%	-4.6	10
1967-08-27	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1246	1207	37.70%	28.07%	34.23%	+4.6	15
1967-08-27	Frem	L 0-2	1235	1262	36.02%	28.11%	35.88%	-9.5	11
1967-08-27	@ Vejle BK	W 2-0	1262	1235	35.88%	28.11%	36.02%	+9.5	16
1967-09-03	Vejle BK	W 3-2	1234	1225	41.10%	28.05%	30.86%	+4.0	16
1967-09-03	@ Aalborg	L 2-3	1225	1234	30.86%	28.05%	41.10%	-4.0	11
1967-09-03	Frem	W 1-0	1268	1272	39.36%	28.09%	32.55%	+4.7	20
1967-09-03	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1272	1268	32.55%	28.09%	39.36%	-4.7	16
1967-09-03	Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1199	1205	38.92%	28.10%	32.98%	-0.1	15
1967-09-03	@ Horsens	D 2-2	1205	1199	32.98%	28.10%	38.92%	+0.1	12
1967-09-03	Hvidovre	L 1-2	1251	1313	31.19%	27.94%	40.87%	-4.3	15
1967-09-03	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1313	1251	40.87%	27.94%	31.19%	+4.3	21
1967-09-03	B 1903	L 1-2	1202	1221	37.22%	28.11%	34.67%	-4.9	10
1967-09-03	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1221	1202	34.67%	28.11%	37.22%	+4.9	11
1967-09-03	Esbjerg	D 3-3	1230	1205	43.16%	27.95%	28.89%	-0.2	9
1967-09-03	@ Odense	D 3-3	1205	1230	28.89%	27.95%	43.16%	+0.2	12
1967-09-06	Aalborg	L 3-4	1206	1238	35.19%	28.10%	36.71%	-4.3	12
1967-09-06	@ Aarhus GF	W 4-3	1238	1206	36.71%	28.10%	35.19%	+4.3	18
1967-09-06	Horsens	W 3-1	1206	1199	40.80%	28.06%	31.14%	+7.4	14
1967-09-06	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1199	1206	31.14%	28.06%	40.80%	-7.4	15
1967-09-06	Koge BK	W 3-0	1267	1197	48.92%	27.42%	23.66%	+10.0	18
1967-09-06	@ Frem	L 0-3	1197	1267	23.66%	27.42%	48.92%	-10.0	10
1967-09-06	Vejle BK	W 2-1	1230	1221	40.99%	28.05%	30.96%	+4.3	11
1967-09-06	@ Odense	L 1-2	1221	1230	30.96%	28.05%	40.99%	-4.3	11
1967-09-07	B 1903	W 1-0	1318	1226	51.58%	27.03%	21.39%	+3.4	23
1967-09-07	@ Hvidovre	L 0-1	1226	1318	21.39%	27.03%	51.58%	-3.4	11
1967-09-10	AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1213	1273	31.55%	27.96%	40.49%	+0.2	15
1967-09-10	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1273	1213	40.49%	27.96%	31.55%	-0.2	21
1967-09-10	Aalborg	L 1-4	1222	1243	36.96%	28.11%	34.92%	-11.9	11
1967-09-10	@ B 1903	W 4-1	1243	1222	34.92%	28.11%	36.96%	+11.9	20
1967-09-10	Horsens	L 0-1	1277	1191	50.82%	27.15%	22.03%	-6.6	18
1967-09-10	@ Frem	W 1-0	1191	1277	22.03%	27.15%	50.82%	+6.6	17
1967-09-10	Koge BK	D 1-1	1321	1187	56.20%	26.10%	17.70%	-1.1	24
1967-09-10	@ Hvidovre	D 1-1	1187	1321	17.70%	26.10%	56.20%	+1.1	11
1967-09-10	Odense	L 1-2	1247	1234	41.60%	28.03%	30.37%	-5.3	15
1967-09-10	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1234	1247	30.37%	28.03%	41.60%	+5.3	13
1967-09-13	Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1217	1201	42.01%	28.01%	29.99%	-0.2	12
1967-09-13	@ Vejle BK	D 2-2	1201	1217	29.99%	28.01%	42.01%	+0.2	13
1967-09-14	KB Copenhagen	W 4-3	1272	1241	44.02%	27.89%	28.08%	+3.6	23
1967-09-14	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1241	1272	28.08%	27.89%	44.02%	-3.7	15
1967-09-16	Esbjerg	W 3-1	1217	1213	40.32%	28.07%	31.61%	+7.5	14
1967-09-16	@ Vejle BK	L 1-3	1213	1217	31.61%	28.07%	40.32%	-7.5	15
1967-09-17	Frem	L 1-3	1255	1270	37.67%	28.11%	34.22%	-8.5	20
1967-09-17	@ Aalborg	W 3-1	1270	1255	34.22%	28.11%	37.67%	+8.5	20
1967-09-17	Hvidovre	W 2-1	1201	1320	24.50%	27.22%	48.28%	+6.0	15
1967-09-17	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1320	1201	48.28%	27.22%	24.50%	-6.0	24
1967-09-17	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1210	1238	35.98%	28.11%	35.91%	+0.0	12
1967-09-17	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1238	1210	35.91%	28.11%	35.98%	+0.0	16
1967-09-17	Odense	W 2-0	1198	1239	34.02%	28.07%	37.91%	+9.9	19
1967-09-17	@ Horsens	L 0-2	1239	1198	37.91%	28.07%	34.02%	-9.9	13
1967-09-17	AB Gladsaxe	L 3-5	1188	1276	27.99%	27.68%	44.33%	-5.8	11
1967-09-17	@ Koge BK	W 5-3	1276	1188	44.33%	27.68%	27.99%	+5.8	25
1967-09-27	Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1206	1207	39.62%	28.09%	32.29%	-0.2	16
1967-09-27	@ Esbjerg	D 0-0	1207	1206	32.29%	28.09%	39.62%	+0.2	16
1967-09-27	B 1903	W 3-2	1279	1210	48.76%	27.44%	23.81%	+3.3	22
1967-09-27	@ Frem	L 2-3	1210	1279	23.81%	27.44%	48.76%	-3.3	12
1967-10-01	Vejle BK	W 2-1	1282	1224	47.43%	27.59%	24.97%	+3.6	27
1967-10-01	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1224	1282	24.97%	27.59%	47.43%	-3.6	14
1967-10-01	Hvidovre	W 2-1	1208	1314	25.85%	27.42%	46.73%	+5.8	21
1967-10-01	@ Horsens	L 1-2	1314	1208	46.73%	27.42%	25.85%	-5.8	24
1967-10-01	Aalborg	D 2-2	1238	1246	38.68%	28.11%	33.21%	-0.1	17
1967-10-01	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1246	1238	33.21%	28.11%	38.68%	+0.1	21
1967-10-01	Koge BK	D 2-2	1229	1183	46.08%	27.73%	26.20%	-0.4	14
1967-10-01	@ Odense	D 2-2	1183	1229	26.20%	27.73%	46.08%	+0.4	12
1967-10-08	Horsens	D 1-1	1246	1214	44.25%	27.88%	27.87%	-0.5	22
1967-10-08	@ Aalborg	D 1-1	1214	1246	27.87%	27.88%	44.25%	+0.5	22
1967-10-08	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1207	1285	29.15%	27.79%	43.06%	+9.4	14
1967-10-08	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1285	1207	43.06%	27.79%	29.15%	-9.4	27
1967-10-08	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1282	1208	49.49%	27.34%	23.16%	+5.9	24
1967-10-08	@ Frem	L 1-3	1208	1282	23.16%	27.34%	49.49%	-5.9	16
1967-10-08	Odense	D 0-0	1308	1229	50.07%	27.26%	22.67%	-0.9	25
1967-10-08	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1229	1308	22.67%	27.26%	50.07%	+0.9	15
1967-10-08	Esbjerg	L 1-4	1183	1206	36.66%	28.11%	35.23%	-11.8	12
1967-10-08	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1206	1183	35.23%	28.11%	36.66%	+11.8	18
1967-10-08	KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1221	1238	37.46%	28.11%	34.43%	-0.1	15
1967-10-08	@ Vejle BK	D 0-0	1238	1221	34.43%	28.11%	37.46%	+0.1	18
1967-10-15	Odense	D 1-1	1246	1230	42.03%	28.01%	29.96%	-0.3	23
1967-10-15	@ Aalborg	D 1-1	1230	1246	29.96%	28.01%	42.03%	+0.3	16
1967-10-15	Koge BK	L 0-1	1202	1171	43.97%	27.90%	28.13%	-5.9	16
1967-10-15	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1171	1202	28.13%	27.90%	43.97%	+5.9	14
1967-10-15	Esbjerg	L 1-2	1217	1217	39.72%	28.09%	32.19%	-5.1	14
1967-10-15	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1217	1217	32.19%	28.09%	39.72%	+5.1	20
1967-10-15	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1214	1276	31.23%	27.94%	40.83%	+5.0	24
1967-10-15	@ Horsens	L 2-3	1276	1214	40.83%	27.94%	31.23%	-4.9	27
1967-10-15	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1307	1221	50.96%	27.13%	21.92%	-10.8	25
1967-10-15	@ Hvidovre	W 3-1	1221	1307	21.92%	27.13%	50.96%	+10.8	17
1967-10-15	Frem	D 2-2	1238	1288	32.82%	28.02%	39.15%	+0.1	19
1967-10-15	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1288	1238	39.15%	28.02%	32.82%	-0.1	25
1967-10-29	Hvidovre	W 1-0	1271	1296	36.28%	28.11%	35.61%	+5.0	29
1967-10-29	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1296	1271	35.61%	28.11%	36.28%	-5.0	25
1967-10-29	Aalborg	W 4-3	1223	1246	36.61%	28.11%	35.28%	+4.3	22
1967-10-29	@ Esbjerg	L 3-4	1246	1223	35.28%	28.11%	36.61%	-4.3	23
1967-10-29	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1238	1196	45.46%	27.78%	26.75%	+3.8	21
1967-10-29	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1196	1238	26.75%	27.78%	45.46%	-3.8	16
1967-10-29	Horsens	L 1-2	1177	1219	33.94%	28.06%	38.00%	-4.5	14
1967-10-29	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1219	1177	38.00%	28.06%	33.94%	+4.5	26
1967-10-29	Frem	L 0-2	1230	1288	31.81%	27.97%	40.21%	-8.7	16
1967-10-29	@ Odense	W 2-0	1288	1230	40.21%	27.97%	31.81%	+8.7	27
1967-10-29	B 1903	W 4-2	1231	1211	42.57%	27.98%	29.45%	+6.3	19
1967-10-29	@ Vejle BK	L 2-4	1211	1231	29.45%	27.98%	42.57%	-6.4	14
1967-11-05	Hvidovre	L 1-4	1241	1291	32.79%	28.02%	39.18%	-10.9	23
1967-11-05	@ Aalborg	W 4-1	1291	1241	39.18%	28.02%	32.79%	+10.9	27
1967-11-05	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1192	1276	28.45%	27.73%	43.82%	-4.0	16
1967-11-05	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1276	1192	43.82%	27.73%	28.45%	+4.0	31
1967-11-05	Odense	D 1-1	1205	1221	37.55%	28.11%	34.33%	-0.1	15
1967-11-05	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1221	1205	34.33%	28.11%	37.55%	+0.1	17
1967-11-05	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1296	1227	48.91%	27.42%	23.67%	+6.9	29
1967-11-05	@ Frem	L 0-2	1227	1296	23.67%	27.42%	48.91%	-6.9	22
1967-11-05	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1224	1242	37.29%	28.11%	34.60%	+4.9	28
1967-11-05	@ Horsens	L 0-1	1242	1224	34.60%	28.11%	37.29%	-4.9	21
1967-11-05	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1172	1238	30.81%	27.91%	41.28%	-7.3	14
1967-11-05	@ Koge BK	W 3-1	1238	1172	41.28%	27.91%	30.81%	+7.3	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1967-05-29	20.27%	Aarhus GF	1176	6	@ Odense	1280	0
2	1967-04-16	21.80%	KB Copenhagen	1229	2	@ Odense	1317	0
3	1967-10-15	21.92%	Vejle BK	1221	3	@ Hvidovre	1307	1
4	1967-09-10	22.03%	Horsens	1191	1	@ Frem	1277	0
5	1967-09-17	24.50%	@ Aarhus GF	1201	2	Hvidovre	1320	1
6	1967-05-21	25.22%	@ Koge BK	1186	5	Odense	1298	1
7	1967-10-01	25.85%	@ Horsens	1208	2	Hvidovre	1314	1
8	1967-05-28	26.55%	Esbjerg	1208	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1252	0
9	1967-08-17	27.06%	Vejle BK	1213	6	@ Horsens	1252	1
10	1967-05-21	27.23%	B 1903	1182	2	@ Esbjerg	1220	0
11	1967-06-08	27.61%	Aalborg	1210	3	@ Vejle BK	1245	1
12	1967-06-18	27.69%	Koge BK	1192	4	@ Vejle BK	1227	1
13	1967-10-15	28.13%	Koge BK	1171	1	@ Aarhus GF	1202	0
14	1967-04-11	28.73%	AB Gladsaxe	1227	3	@ Frem	1253	2
15	1967-10-08	29.15%	@ B 1903	1207	3	AB Gladsaxe	1285	1
16	1967-04-02	29.38%	Aarhus GF	1197	4	@ Aalborg	1218	1
17	1967-06-07	29.73%	@ Aarhus GF	1212	2	Horsens	1285	0
18	1967-09-10	30.37%	Odense	1234	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1247	1
19	1967-10-15	31.23%	@ Horsens	1214	3	AB Gladsaxe	1276	2
20	1967-04-25	31.36%	AB Gladsaxe	1236	1	@ KB Copenhagen	1242	0
21	1967-04-05	31.48%	Vejle BK	1228	2	@ Esbjerg	1233	0
22	1967-06-18	31.69%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1223	6	Horsens	1281	0
23	1967-04-25	31.80%	@ Vejle BK	1247	2	Odense	1304	0
24	1967-06-11	31.99%	@ B 1903	1179	3	Vejle BK	1236	1
25	1967-10-15	32.19%	Esbjerg	1217	2	@ B 1903	1217	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1967-05-29	35.90	Aarhus GF	6	1176	20.27%	@ Odense	0	1280	52.94%	26.79%
2	1967-08-27	31.72	@ B 1903	7	1189	34.00%	Horsens	0	1231	37.93%	28.07%
3	1967-06-18	28.70	@ AB Gladsaxe	6	1223	31.69%	Horsens	0	1281	40.34%	27.97%
4	1967-06-11	22.00	@ Aalborg	5	1220	36.39%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1245	35.50%	28.11%
5	1967-08-17	21.89	Vejle BK	6	1213	27.06%	@ Horsens	1	1252	45.13%	27.81%
6	1967-05-21	18.58	@ Koge BK	5	1186	25.22%	Odense	1	1298	47.45%	27.33%
7	1967-05-07	14.13	@ AB Gladsaxe	4	1242	46.27%	Aarhus GF	0	1194	26.02%	27.71%
8	1967-06-18	13.67	Koge BK	4	1192	27.69%	@ Vejle BK	1	1227	44.44%	27.86%
9	1967-04-02	13.45	Frem	3	1239	37.15%	@ Koge BK	0	1203	34.76%	28.09%
10	1967-04-02	13.23	Aarhus GF	4	1197	29.38%	@ Aalborg	1	1218	42.64%	27.98%
11	1967-04-16	12.86	Hvidovre	3	1266	39.29%	@ Esbjerg	0	1215	32.69%	28.02%
12	1967-04-16	12.54	KB Copenhagen	2	1229	21.80%	@ Odense	0	1317	51.09%	27.11%
13	1967-09-10	11.87	Aalborg	4	1243	34.92%	@ B 1903	1	1222	36.96%	28.11%
14	1967-10-08	11.79	Esbjerg	4	1206	35.23%	@ Koge BK	1	1183	36.66%	28.11%
15	1967-05-28	11.42	Esbjerg	2	1208	26.55%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1252	45.69%	27.76%
16	1967-05-21	11.27	B 1903	2	1182	27.23%	@ Esbjerg	0	1220	44.95%	27.82%
17	1967-06-18	11.13	@ Hvidovre	5	1291	48.24%	Aarhus GF	1	1227	24.26%	27.50%
18	1967-11-05	10.87	Hvidovre	4	1291	39.18%	@ Aalborg	1	1241	32.79%	28.02%
19	1967-10-15	10.84	Vejle BK	3	1221	21.92%	@ Hvidovre	1	1307	50.96%	27.13%
20	1967-06-07	10.74	@ Aarhus GF	2	1212	29.73%	Horsens	0	1285	42.44%	27.84%
21	1967-04-05	10.36	Vejle BK	2	1228	31.48%	@ Esbjerg	0	1233	40.45%	28.07%
22	1967-04-25	10.31	@ Vejle BK	2	1247	31.80%	Odense	0	1304	40.23%	27.97%
23	1967-08-27	10.13	Odense	2	1220	32.65%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1216	39.26%	28.10%
24	1967-09-06	10.02	@ Frem	3	1267	48.92%	Koge BK	0	1197	23.66%	27.42%
25	1967-09-17	9.86	@ Horsens	2	1198	34.02%	Odense	0	1239	37.91%	28.07%