1966 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Hvidovre

31 points · 1st Title

Relegated

B 1913

15 pts

B 1909 · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Hvidovre

5.92 points above expected

31 points · 25.08 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B 1913

3.76 points below expected

15 points · 18.76 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Hvidovre Champion	22	11	9	2	31	40	16	+24	25.08	+5.92
2	Frem	22	11	5	6	27	33	22	+11	23.49	+3.51
3	KB Copenhagen	22	10	5	7	25	40	32	+8	21.28	+3.72
4	Aarhus GF	22	11	3	8	25	45	41	+4	20.51	+4.49
5	Vejle BK	22	9	5	8	23	44	41	+3	24.55	-1.55
6	AB Gladsaxe	22	9	3	10	21	35	29	+6	21.93	-0.93
7	Esbjerg	22	8	5	9	21	35	36	-1	24.58	-3.58
8	B 1903	22	8	5	9	21	29	33	-4	22.33	-1.33
9	Aalborg	22	9	2	11	20	32	32	0	20.63	-0.63
10	Koge BK	22	8	3	11	19	40	45	-5	21.84	-2.84
11	B 1909 Relegated	22	6	4	12	16	35	59	-24	19.01	-3.01
12	B 1913 Relegated	22	5	5	12	15	26	48	-22	18.76	-3.76

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Hvidovre	1399	31	25.08	+5.92	95.2%	10	19	22	25	28	31	40
Frem	1361	27	23.49	+3.51	84.5%	8	17	21	23	26	30	38
Esbjerg	1349	21	24.58	-3.58	22.0%	7	18	22	25	27	31	38
Vejle BK	1344	23	24.55	-1.55	38.8%	11	18	22	25	27	31	40
AB Gladsaxe	1335	21	21.93	-0.93	45.7%	8	15	19	22	25	29	36
KB Copenhagen	1333	25	21.28	+3.72	85.8%	7	15	19	21	24	28	36
Aalborg	1325	20	20.63	-0.63	48.6%	5	14	18	21	23	27	35
B 1903	1318	21	22.33	-1.33	42.1%	8	16	20	22	25	29	37
Koge BK	1304	19	21.84	-2.84	27.2%	9	15	19	22	24	28	37
Aarhus GF	1299	25	20.51	+4.49	89.4%	5	14	18	20	23	27	34
B 1913	1222	15	18.76	-3.76	20.5%	6	12	16	19	21	25	35
B 1909	1207	16	19.01	-3.01	26.0%	6	13	16	19	22	25	33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AAL	AG	B1	B1	B1	ESB	FRE	HVI	KC	KB	VB
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.86	2-0-0 2.65	1-0-1 3.18	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.51	1-1-0 2.53	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 2.92	1-0-1 2.69	0-1-1 2.58
Aalborg	1-0-1 2.67	—	2-0-0 2.68	0-0-2 2.60	0-0-2 2.84	1-0-1 3.17	1-1-0 2.11	1-0-1 2.36	1-0-1 2.50	1-1-0 2.58	0-0-2 2.66	1-0-1 2.38
Aarhus GF	1-0-1 2.71	0-0-2 2.89	—	1-0-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.99	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 2.22	1-1-0 2.44	0-1-1 2.21	0-0-2 2.65	1-0-1 2.65	2-0-0 2.17
B 1903	0-0-2 2.92	2-0-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.12	—	0-0-2 3.34	2-0-0 3.13	1-1-0 2.45	0-0-2 2.72	0-1-1 2.30	1-1-0 2.84	0-2-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.46
B 1909	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 2.73	0-1-1 2.58	2-0-0 2.24	—	0-1-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.19	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 1.92	0-0-2 2.42	1-1-0 2.31	0-1-1 2.13
B 1913	0-1-1 2.37	1-0-1 2.40	0-0-2 2.54	0-0-2 2.45	1-1-0 2.71	—	0-1-1 2.18	0-1-1 2.13	0-1-1 2.02	0-0-2 2.64	2-0-0 2.26	1-0-1 2.13
Esbjerg	1-0-1 3.06	0-1-1 3.46	0-0-2 3.35	0-1-1 3.12	2-0-0 3.38	1-1-0 3.40	—	0-0-2 2.88	0-2-0 2.59	1-0-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.96
Frem	0-1-1 3.04	1-0-1 3.21	0-1-1 3.13	2-0-0 2.85	2-0-0 3.12	1-1-0 3.45	2-0-0 2.69	—	0-2-0 2.59	2-0-0 3.06	1-0-1 3.00	0-0-2 2.77
Hvidovre	2-0-0 3.12	1-0-1 3.08	1-1-0 3.37	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.66	1-1-0 3.56	0-2-0 2.98	0-2-0 2.98	—	1-1-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.21	0-1-1 2.76
KB Copenhagen	2-0-0 2.65	0-1-1 2.99	2-0-0 2.92	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.16	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 2.49	0-0-2 2.51	0-1-1 2.31	—	1-0-1 2.66	0-2-0 2.28
Koge BK	1-0-1 2.88	2-0-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.92	0-2-0 2.67	0-1-1 3.26	0-0-2 3.31	0-0-2 2.37	1-0-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.91	—	2-0-0 2.22
Vejle BK	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 3.19	0-0-2 3.40	1-0-1 3.11	1-1-0 3.44	1-0-1 3.45	1-0-1 2.61	2-0-0 2.80	1-1-0 2.80	0-2-0 3.30	0-0-2 3.35	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.27	+4.0
Allowed	0.66	-3.2
Differential	0.89	+3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.30%	5.68%	9.09%	3.03%	1.52%	0.76%	25.38%
1	5.68%	6.82%	4.17%	3.41%	3.79%	1.89%	25.76%
2	9.09%	4.17%	7.58%	2.27%	2.65%	0.76%	26.52%
3	3.03%	3.41%	2.27%	—	—	0.76%	9.47%
4	1.52%	3.79%	2.65%	—	—	—	7.95%
5+	0.76%	1.89%	0.76%	0.76%	—	0.76%	4.92%
Total	25.38%	25.76%	26.52%	9.47%	7.95%	4.92%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.44	1.44	2.12
CV	0.87	0.87	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	27.27%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	27.27%	45.45%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.32	+0.27
SD	1.65	0.89	2.21
CV	1.04	0.68	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	36.36%
2	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.45	+0.00
SD	1.30	1.47	2.25
CV	0.89	1.01	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	31.82%	31.82%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	1.86	+0.18
SD	1.50	1.13	1.99
CV	0.73	0.60	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.50	-0.18
SD	1.29	1.41	1.94
CV	0.98	0.94	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	27.27%
2	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
Total	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	2.68	-1.09
SD	1.33	1.84	2.16
CV	0.84	0.68	—
Max	5	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
1	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	2.18	-1.00
SD	1.05	1.56	2.05
CV	0.89	0.72	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.64	-0.05
SD	1.37	1.53	2.10
CV	0.86	0.93	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
2	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	40.91%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.00	+0.50
SD	1.41	0.87	1.65
CV	0.94	0.87	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	54.55%	22.73%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	0.73	+1.09
SD	1.62	0.94	1.69
CV	0.89	1.29	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	18.18%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	27.27%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	1.45	+0.36
SD	1.44	1.34	1.81
CV	0.79	0.92	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	27.27%	36.36%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	2.05	-0.23
SD	1.56	1.33	2.45
CV	0.86	0.65	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%
2	13.64%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
Total	27.27%	22.73%	22.73%	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.86	+0.14
SD	1.69	1.75	2.49
CV	0.85	0.94	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hvidovre	31	25.08	+5.92
2	Aarhus GF	25	20.51	+4.49
3	KB Copenhagen	25	21.28	+3.72
4	Frem	27	23.49	+3.51
5	Aalborg	20	20.63	-0.63

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B 1913	15	18.76	-3.76
2	Esbjerg	21	24.58	-3.58
3	B 1909	16	19.01	-3.01
4	Koge BK	19	21.84	-2.84
5	Vejle BK	23	24.55	-1.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	4	Jun 8 – Aug 21	1 in 35
2	Aalborg	3	Sep 25 – Oct 9	1 in 34
3	Aarhus GF	3	Oct 13 – Oct 30	1 in 34
4	Frem	4	Aug 16 – Aug 28	1 in 27
5	KB Copenhagen	3	Sep 25 – Oct 9	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aalborg	4	May 15 – Jun 8	1 in 49
2	B 1903	3	Jun 1 – Jun 15	1 in 30
3	B 1913	4	Sep 4 – Sep 25	1 in 24
4	AB Gladsaxe	3	May 10 – May 19	1 in 15
5	Vejle BK	2	Sep 25 – Oct 2	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hvidovre	15	Apr 24 – Sep 7	1 in 768
2	Vejle BK	6	May 6 – Jun 12	1 in 21
3	B 1903	4	Jun 19 – Aug 28	1 in 15
4	Frem	6	Jun 12 – Aug 28	1 in 14
5	B 1913	4	May 22 – Jun 16	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aalborg	10	May 15 – Sep 4	1 in 84
2	Koge BK	5	Oct 2 – Oct 30	1 in 21
3	AB Gladsaxe	5	May 6 – May 22	1 in 18
4	Esbjerg	4	Jun 1 – Jun 15	1 in 12
5	KB Copenhagen	4	Aug 14 – Aug 25	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Hvidovre	24.01%	17.52%	13.36%	10.46%	8.82%	6.80%	5.61%	4.78%	3.38%	2.48%	1.79%	0.99%
Frem	12.67%	11.93%	12.47%	10.77%	10.08%	9.42%	8.30%	7.39%	5.87%	4.94%	3.84%	2.32%
KB Copenhagen	4.59%	6.17%	7.75%	8.28%	9.25%	9.36%	9.53%	9.81%	10.01%	9.40%	8.62%	7.23%
Aarhus GF	3.26%	4.46%	5.43%	6.78%	7.46%	8.76%	9.63%	9.99%	10.77%	11.30%	11.11%	11.05%
Vejle BK	17.15%	14.45%	12.84%	11.92%	9.30%	8.30%	7.31%	5.67%	4.63%	3.64%	3.12%	1.67%
AB Gladsaxe	6.25%	7.53%	8.52%	9.30%	9.57%	9.51%	9.60%	9.43%	8.86%	8.44%	7.41%	5.58%
Esbjerg	16.49%	15.14%	12.69%	11.22%	8.81%	8.67%	7.14%	6.13%	5.11%	3.84%	2.95%	1.81%
B 1903	6.28%	8.10%	8.22%	9.08%	10.36%	9.50%	9.70%	9.36%	9.12%	8.28%	6.95%	5.05%
Aalborg	2.74%	4.59%	5.78%	6.52%	8.12%	8.91%	9.36%	9.83%	10.72%	11.61%	11.15%	10.67%
Koge BK	4.49%	6.64%	7.92%	8.67%	9.11%	9.53%	9.75%	9.95%	10.22%	9.37%	7.94%	6.41%
B 1909	0.98%	1.75%	2.47%	3.67%	4.54%	6.06%	7.43%	8.90%	10.64%	13.58%	17.50%	22.48%
B 1913	1.09%	1.72%	2.55%	3.33%	4.58%	5.18%	6.64%	8.76%	10.67%	13.12%	17.62%	24.74%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+18.94%

Clear Edge

49.24%20.45%30.30%

Elo Value

Home Edge

158 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

066.61400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.48 goals

Neutral

-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.9

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

Hvidovre, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.18/gm

Tight Race

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.15 * Some Luck: 3.15 to 4.72 * Lucky: 4.72 to 6.3 * Wild Swing: 6.3 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.25 * Close: 2.25 to 3.38 * Off: 3.38 to 4.5 * Way Off: 4.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.18 * A Surprise: 1.18 to 1.88 * Several Surprises: 1.88 to 2.59 * Many Surprises: 2.59 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.30 points

Some Luck

03.9410

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.17

Pinpoint

02.816

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.21%

Hvidovre

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

20.46%

B 1913

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.11

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.97

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

56%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

75%

Clear Edge

50%75%100%

Close Games

Expected

45%

Frequent

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Very Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.70

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.12

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Shaky Favorites

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.72

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.44

Overconfident

0.2711431.001.72886

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.069

Well Within Noise

00.1220.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Hvidovre	97.22%	2.78%
Esbjerg	95.24%	4.76%
Vejle BK	95.21%	4.79%
Frem	93.84%	6.16%
B 1903	88.00%	12.00%
AB Gladsaxe	87.01%	12.99%
Koge BK	85.65%	14.35%
KB Copenhagen	84.15%	15.85%
Aalborg	78.18%	21.82%
Aarhus GF	77.84%	22.16%
B 1909	60.02%	39.98%
B 1913	57.64%	42.36%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1966-04-10	B 1913	W 5-1	1303	1286	54.46%	21.43%	24.11%	+11.7	2
1966-04-10	@ Aalborg	L 1-5	1286	1303	24.11%	21.43%	54.46%	-11.7	0
1966-04-10	Koge BK	W 2-0	1276	1331	45.50%	21.69%	32.81%	+9.5	2
1966-04-10	@ B 1909	L 0-2	1331	1276	32.81%	21.69%	45.50%	-9.5	0
1966-04-12	Vejle BK	W 3-0	1265	1357	40.24%	21.67%	38.09%	+15.6	2
1966-04-12	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1357	1265	38.09%	21.67%	40.24%	-15.6	0
1966-04-17	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1376	1320	58.52%	21.15%	20.33%	+6.4	2
1966-04-17	@ Esbjerg	L 0-2	1320	1376	20.33%	21.15%	58.52%	-6.4	0
1966-04-21	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1286	1292	51.69%	21.56%	26.75%	-7.4	2
1966-04-21	@ B 1909	W 1-0	1292	1286	26.75%	21.56%	51.69%	+7.4	2
1966-04-24	Hvidovre	L 0-2	1315	1318	52.00%	21.55%	26.46%	-13.9	2
1966-04-24	@ Aalborg	W 2-0	1318	1315	26.46%	21.55%	52.00%	+13.9	2
1966-04-24	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1343	1314	55.75%	21.36%	22.90%	-7.9	0
1966-04-24	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1314	1343	22.90%	21.36%	55.75%	+7.9	2
1966-04-24	Esbjerg	L 1-2	1321	1382	44.59%	21.69%	33.72%	-6.1	0
1966-04-24	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1382	1321	33.72%	21.69%	44.59%	+6.1	4
1966-04-24	Frem	W 3-2	1341	1330	53.73%	21.47%	24.80%	+3.6	2
1966-04-24	@ Vejle BK	L 2-3	1330	1341	24.80%	21.47%	53.73%	-3.6	0
1966-04-26	B 1913	W 3-1	1280	1274	53.13%	21.50%	25.38%	+6.7	4
1966-04-26	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1274	1280	25.38%	21.50%	53.13%	-6.7	0
1966-04-27	Koge BK	D 1-1	1335	1315	54.77%	21.41%	23.82%	-1.0	1
1966-04-27	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1315	1335	23.82%	21.41%	54.77%	+1.0	1
1966-04-27	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1345	1388	46.97%	21.67%	31.35%	+9.2	4
1966-04-27	@ Vejle BK	L 0-2	1388	1345	31.35%	21.67%	46.97%	-9.2	4
1966-05-01	Vejle BK	W 1-0	1267	1354	41.01%	21.68%	37.31%	+5.6	2
1966-05-01	@ B 1913	L 0-1	1354	1267	37.31%	21.68%	41.01%	-5.6	4
1966-05-01	B 1909	W 3-0	1332	1278	58.37%	21.17%	20.46%	+9.3	4
1966-05-01	@ Hvidovre	L 0-3	1278	1332	20.46%	21.17%	58.37%	-9.3	2
1966-05-04	Koge BK	W 4-0	1326	1316	53.62%	21.47%	24.91%	+14.4	2
1966-05-04	@ Frem	L 0-4	1316	1326	24.91%	21.47%	53.62%	-14.4	1
1966-05-06	B 1913	D 2-2	1322	1273	57.89%	21.20%	20.91%	-0.9	3
1966-05-06	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1273	1322	20.91%	21.20%	57.89%	+0.9	3
1966-05-06	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1269	1287	50.23%	21.61%	28.17%	-0.7	3
1966-05-06	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1287	1269	28.17%	21.61%	50.23%	+0.7	5
1966-05-06	Esbjerg	W 4-1	1334	1379	46.79%	21.68%	31.54%	+11.3	3
1966-05-06	@ B 1903	L 1-4	1379	1334	31.54%	21.68%	46.79%	-11.3	4
1966-05-06	Vejle BK	D 0-0	1342	1349	51.54%	21.56%	26.90%	-0.9	5
1966-05-06	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1349	1342	26.90%	21.56%	51.54%	+0.9	5
1966-05-08	Frem	W 1-0	1301	1341	47.43%	21.67%	30.91%	+4.8	4
1966-05-08	@ Aalborg	L 0-1	1341	1301	30.91%	21.67%	47.43%	-4.8	2
1966-05-08	KB Copenhagen	W 5-1	1301	1299	52.69%	21.52%	25.79%	+12.4	3
1966-05-08	@ Koge BK	L 1-5	1299	1301	25.79%	21.52%	52.69%	-12.4	2
1966-05-10	Hvidovre	L 0-2	1321	1341	49.99%	21.61%	28.40%	-13.5	3
1966-05-10	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1341	1321	28.40%	21.61%	49.99%	+13.5	7
1966-05-10	Esbjerg	D 1-1	1274	1368	40.03%	21.67%	38.31%	-0.1	4
1966-05-10	@ B 1913	D 1-1	1368	1274	38.31%	21.67%	40.03%	+0.0	5
1966-05-12	Aalborg	L 0-2	1288	1306	50.15%	21.61%	28.24%	-13.5	5
1966-05-12	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1306	1288	28.24%	21.61%	50.15%	+13.5	6
1966-05-12	KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1346	1287	58.92%	21.12%	19.96%	-1.4	4
1966-05-12	@ B 1903	D 0-0	1287	1346	19.96%	21.12%	58.92%	+1.4	3
1966-05-12	B 1909	D 5-5	1349	1268	61.07%	20.91%	18.02%	-0.7	6
1966-05-12	@ Vejle BK	D 5-5	1268	1349	18.02%	20.91%	61.07%	+0.7	4
1966-05-15	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1319	1349	48.76%	21.64%	29.60%	-11.4	6
1966-05-15	@ Aalborg	W 3-1	1349	1319	29.60%	21.64%	48.76%	+11.4	8
1966-05-15	AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1269	1308	47.59%	21.66%	30.74%	+4.8	6
1966-05-15	@ B 1909	L 0-1	1308	1269	30.74%	21.66%	47.59%	-4.8	3
1966-05-15	B 1903	W 3-1	1336	1344	51.39%	21.57%	27.05%	+7.0	4
1966-05-15	@ Frem	L 1-3	1344	1336	27.05%	21.57%	51.39%	-7.0	4
1966-05-15	Koge BK	W 3-0	1354	1314	56.95%	21.28%	21.78%	+9.8	9
1966-05-15	@ Hvidovre	L 0-3	1314	1354	21.78%	21.28%	56.95%	-9.8	3
1966-05-15	B 1913	W 2-0	1288	1274	54.07%	21.45%	24.48%	+7.5	5
1966-05-15	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1274	1288	24.48%	21.45%	54.07%	-7.5	4
1966-05-18	Hvidovre	D 0-0	1343	1364	49.83%	21.62%	28.56%	-0.8	5
1966-05-18	@ Frem	D 0-0	1364	1343	28.56%	21.62%	49.83%	+0.8	10
1966-05-19	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1274	1303	48.84%	21.64%	29.52%	+4.4	7
1966-05-19	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1303	1274	29.52%	21.64%	48.84%	-4.4	3
1966-05-22	Koge BK	L 2-3	1308	1304	52.86%	21.51%	25.63%	-6.7	6
1966-05-22	@ Aalborg	W 3-2	1304	1308	25.63%	21.51%	52.86%	+6.7	5
1966-05-22	B 1903	L 0-1	1278	1337	44.89%	21.69%	33.41%	-6.5	7
1966-05-22	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1337	1278	33.41%	21.69%	44.89%	+6.5	6
1966-05-22	Vejle BK	D 2-2	1298	1360	44.49%	21.69%	33.81%	-0.2	4
1966-05-22	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1360	1298	33.81%	21.69%	44.49%	+0.2	9
1966-05-22	Frem	D 0-0	1266	1342	42.53%	21.69%	35.78%	-0.2	5
1966-05-22	@ B 1913	D 0-0	1342	1266	35.78%	21.69%	42.53%	+0.2	6
1966-05-22	B 1909	W 4-2	1368	1274	62.26%	20.77%	16.97%	+4.2	7
1966-05-22	@ Esbjerg	L 2-4	1274	1368	16.97%	20.77%	62.26%	-4.2	6
1966-05-22	Hvidovre	L 2-4	1295	1365	43.48%	21.69%	34.83%	-9.2	5
1966-05-22	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-2	1365	1295	34.83%	21.69%	43.48%	+9.2	12
1966-06-01	Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1372	1272	62.82%	20.70%	16.48%	-20.4	7
1966-06-01	@ Esbjerg	W 4-1	1272	1372	16.48%	20.70%	62.82%	+20.4	9
1966-06-01	B 1909	L 0-2	1344	1270	60.39%	20.98%	18.63%	-16.0	6
1966-06-01	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1270	1344	18.63%	20.98%	60.39%	+16.0	8
1966-06-05	Aalborg	W 4-1	1298	1301	52.01%	21.54%	26.44%	+9.8	6
1966-06-05	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1301	1298	26.44%	21.54%	52.01%	-9.8	6
1966-06-05	Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1342	1292	57.99%	21.20%	20.81%	-15.4	6
1966-06-05	@ Frem	W 2-0	1292	1342	20.81%	21.20%	57.99%	+15.4	11
1966-06-05	Esbjerg	D 2-2	1374	1351	54.99%	21.40%	23.61%	-0.8	13
1966-06-05	@ Hvidovre	D 2-2	1351	1374	23.61%	21.40%	54.99%	+0.8	8
1966-06-05	B 1913	L 2-4	1311	1266	57.43%	21.24%	21.33%	-11.8	5
1966-06-05	@ Koge BK	W 4-2	1266	1311	21.33%	21.24%	57.43%	+11.8	7
1966-06-05	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1360	1286	60.41%	20.98%	18.61%	-1.0	10
1966-06-05	@ Vejle BK	D 2-2	1286	1360	18.61%	20.98%	60.41%	+1.0	6
1966-06-08	Aalborg	W 2-0	1286	1291	51.70%	21.56%	26.74%	+8.1	10
1966-06-08	@ B 1909	L 0-2	1291	1286	26.74%	21.56%	51.70%	-8.1	6
1966-06-08	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1299	1308	51.30%	21.57%	27.13%	+7.1	7
1966-06-08	@ Koge BK	L 1-3	1308	1299	27.13%	21.57%	51.30%	-7.1	6
1966-06-11	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1301	1287	53.98%	21.46%	24.56%	-14.4	6
1966-06-11	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1287	1301	24.56%	21.46%	53.98%	+14.4	8
1966-06-12	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1278	1373	39.82%	21.66%	38.52%	-0.0	8
1966-06-12	@ B 1913	D 1-1	1373	1278	38.52%	21.66%	39.82%	+0.0	14
1966-06-12	Vejle BK	L 1-6	1328	1359	48.46%	21.65%	29.89%	-25.4	6
1966-06-12	@ B 1903	W 6-1	1359	1328	29.89%	21.65%	48.46%	+25.4	12
1966-06-12	Esbjerg	W 1-0	1327	1352	49.29%	21.63%	29.08%	+4.6	8
1966-06-12	@ Frem	L 0-1	1352	1327	29.08%	21.63%	49.29%	-4.6	8
1966-06-14	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1302	1308	51.66%	21.56%	26.78%	+7.0	10
1966-06-14	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1308	1302	26.78%	21.56%	51.66%	-7.0	11
1966-06-15	Aalborg	D 1-1	1348	1283	59.43%	21.07%	19.50%	-1.3	9
1966-06-15	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1283	1348	19.50%	21.07%	59.43%	+1.3	7
1966-06-15	B 1903	W 2-0	1373	1302	60.09%	21.01%	18.90%	+6.0	16
1966-06-15	@ Hvidovre	L 0-2	1302	1373	18.90%	21.01%	60.09%	-6.0	6
1966-06-16	B 1913	D 2-2	1294	1278	54.27%	21.44%	24.29%	-0.7	11
1966-06-16	@ B 1909	D 2-2	1278	1294	24.29%	21.44%	54.27%	+0.7	9
1966-06-19	B 1903	L 1-2	1285	1296	50.99%	21.58%	27.43%	-6.8	7
1966-06-19	@ Aalborg	W 2-1	1296	1285	27.43%	21.58%	50.99%	+6.9	8
1966-06-19	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1301	1379	42.20%	21.69%	36.11%	-0.2	12
1966-06-19	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1379	1301	36.11%	21.69%	42.20%	+0.2	17
1966-06-19	Frem	D 2-2	1286	1332	46.71%	21.68%	31.62%	-0.4	7
1966-06-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1332	1286	31.62%	21.68%	46.71%	+0.3	9
1966-06-19	Koge BK	L 0-1	1385	1306	60.85%	20.93%	18.22%	-8.6	12
1966-06-19	@ Vejle BK	W 1-0	1306	1385	18.22%	20.93%	60.85%	+8.6	9
1966-08-14	B 1903	L 1-2	1278	1303	49.35%	21.63%	29.02%	-6.7	9
1966-08-14	@ B 1913	W 2-1	1303	1278	29.02%	21.63%	49.35%	+6.7	10
1966-08-14	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1346	1309	56.66%	21.30%	22.04%	+3.6	11
1966-08-14	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1309	1346	22.04%	21.30%	56.66%	-3.6	10
1966-08-14	Aarhus GF	W 4-2	1315	1301	54.02%	21.45%	24.52%	+5.8	11
1966-08-14	@ Koge BK	L 2-4	1301	1315	24.52%	21.45%	54.02%	-5.8	12
1966-08-16	B 1909	W 4-1	1332	1293	56.80%	21.29%	21.92%	+8.3	11
1966-08-16	@ Frem	L 1-4	1293	1332	21.92%	21.29%	56.80%	-8.3	11
1966-08-18	B 1913	W 4-1	1350	1272	60.79%	20.94%	18.27%	+7.1	13
1966-08-18	@ Esbjerg	L 1-4	1272	1350	18.27%	20.94%	60.79%	-7.1	9
1966-08-18	Aalborg	D 1-1	1305	1278	55.52%	21.37%	23.11%	-1.0	11
1966-08-18	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1278	1305	23.11%	21.37%	55.52%	+1.0	8
1966-08-20	Hvidovre	D 1-1	1310	1379	43.43%	21.69%	34.88%	-0.3	11
1966-08-20	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1379	1310	34.88%	21.69%	43.43%	+0.3	18
1966-08-21	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1286	1295	51.34%	21.57%	27.09%	+7.1	9
1966-08-21	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1295	1286	27.09%	21.57%	51.34%	-7.1	12
1966-08-21	Frem	L 1-4	1285	1340	45.33%	21.69%	32.98%	-15.1	11
1966-08-21	@ B 1909	W 4-1	1340	1285	32.98%	21.69%	45.33%	+15.1	13
1966-08-21	Vejle BK	D 2-2	1304	1376	43.08%	21.69%	35.23%	-0.2	12
1966-08-21	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1376	1304	35.23%	21.69%	43.08%	+0.2	13
1966-08-21	Aalborg	W 4-1	1320	1279	57.07%	21.27%	21.66%	+8.2	13
1966-08-21	@ Koge BK	L 1-4	1279	1320	21.66%	21.27%	57.07%	-8.3	8
1966-08-24	Esbjerg	W 4-2	1288	1357	43.46%	21.69%	34.85%	+7.8	14
1966-08-24	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1357	1288	34.85%	21.69%	43.46%	-7.8	13
1966-08-25	B 1909	W 3-0	1265	1270	51.80%	21.55%	26.65%	+11.7	11
1966-08-25	@ B 1913	L 0-3	1270	1265	26.65%	21.55%	51.80%	-11.7	11
1966-08-25	Frem	L 1-2	1304	1355	45.86%	21.69%	32.46%	-6.2	12
1966-08-25	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1355	1304	32.46%	21.69%	45.86%	+6.2	15
1966-08-28	Aalborg	W 1-0	1362	1271	62.01%	20.80%	17.19%	+2.9	17
1966-08-28	@ Frem	L 0-1	1271	1362	17.19%	20.80%	62.01%	-2.9	8
1966-08-28	AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1380	1293	61.59%	20.85%	17.56%	+3.0	20
1966-08-28	@ Hvidovre	L 0-1	1293	1380	17.56%	20.85%	61.59%	-3.0	9
1966-08-28	Koge BK	W 2-1	1298	1329	48.55%	21.65%	29.80%	+4.4	14
1966-08-28	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1329	1298	29.80%	21.65%	48.55%	-4.4	13
1966-08-28	B 1903	L 1-4	1376	1310	59.68%	21.05%	19.27%	-19.4	13
1966-08-28	@ Vejle BK	W 4-1	1310	1376	19.27%	21.05%	59.68%	+19.4	13
1966-09-03	Hvidovre	D 0-0	1349	1383	48.26%	21.65%	30.09%	-0.6	14
1966-09-03	@ Esbjerg	D 0-0	1383	1349	30.09%	21.65%	48.26%	+0.6	21
1966-09-04	B 1909	L 2-4	1268	1258	53.54%	21.48%	24.98%	-11.1	8
1966-09-04	@ Aalborg	W 4-2	1258	1268	24.98%	21.48%	53.54%	+11.1	13
1966-09-04	Koge BK	W 5-0	1290	1324	48.17%	21.65%	30.18%	+20.8	11
1966-09-04	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-5	1324	1290	30.18%	21.65%	48.17%	-20.9	13
1966-09-04	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1276	1302	49.24%	21.63%	29.13%	-13.3	11
1966-09-04	@ B 1913	W 2-0	1302	1276	29.13%	21.63%	49.24%	+13.3	16
1966-09-04	Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1329	1295	56.22%	21.33%	22.45%	-7.1	13
1966-09-04	@ B 1903	W 3-2	1295	1329	22.45%	21.33%	56.22%	+7.1	16
1966-09-04	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1365	1357	53.30%	21.49%	25.21%	-14.3	17
1966-09-04	@ Frem	W 2-0	1357	1365	25.21%	21.49%	53.30%	+14.3	15
1966-09-07	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1257	1303	46.62%	21.68%	31.70%	+13.5	10
1966-09-07	@ Aalborg	L 0-3	1303	1257	31.70%	21.68%	46.62%	-13.5	16
1966-09-07	Esbjerg	L 0-4	1269	1349	42.04%	21.69%	36.27%	-22.0	13
1966-09-07	@ B 1909	W 4-0	1349	1269	36.27%	21.69%	42.04%	+22.0	16
1966-09-07	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1383	1315	59.80%	21.04%	19.16%	-1.0	22
1966-09-07	@ Hvidovre	D 2-2	1315	1383	19.16%	21.04%	59.80%	+1.0	17
1966-09-07	Frem	W 2-0	1303	1350	46.47%	21.68%	31.85%	+9.3	15
1966-09-07	@ Koge BK	L 0-2	1350	1303	31.85%	21.68%	46.47%	-9.3	17
1966-09-08	B 1903	W 2-0	1311	1322	51.07%	21.58%	27.35%	+8.2	13
1966-09-08	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1322	1311	27.35%	21.58%	51.07%	-8.2	13
1966-09-08	B 1913	W 4-0	1371	1263	63.54%	20.60%	15.86%	+9.7	17
1966-09-08	@ Vejle BK	L 0-4	1263	1371	15.86%	20.60%	63.54%	-9.7	11
1966-09-11	B 1909	W 3-1	1289	1247	57.14%	21.26%	21.60%	+5.8	18
1966-09-11	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1247	1289	21.60%	21.26%	57.14%	-5.8	13
1966-09-11	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1253	1319	43.95%	21.69%	34.36%	-17.5	11
1966-09-11	@ B 1913	W 3-0	1319	1253	34.36%	21.69%	43.95%	+17.5	15
1966-09-11	Koge BK	W 4-1	1371	1313	58.81%	21.13%	20.07%	+7.7	18
1966-09-11	@ Esbjerg	L 1-4	1313	1371	20.07%	21.13%	58.81%	-7.7	15
1966-09-11	Aalborg	W 3-0	1314	1270	57.29%	21.25%	21.46%	+9.7	15
1966-09-11	@ B 1903	L 0-3	1270	1314	21.46%	21.25%	57.29%	-9.7	10
1966-09-11	KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1341	1316	55.25%	21.39%	23.37%	+3.6	19
1966-09-11	@ Frem	L 1-2	1316	1341	23.37%	21.39%	55.25%	-3.6	17
1966-09-11	Hvidovre	W 3-1	1381	1382	52.22%	21.54%	26.25%	+6.9	19
1966-09-11	@ Vejle BK	L 1-3	1382	1381	26.25%	21.54%	52.22%	-6.9	22
1966-09-25	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1260	1378	36.64%	21.60%	41.77%	+11.5	12
1966-09-25	@ Aalborg	L 0-2	1378	1260	41.77%	21.60%	36.64%	-11.5	18
1966-09-25	Frem	D 2-2	1295	1345	46.11%	21.68%	32.21%	-0.3	19
1966-09-25	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1345	1295	32.21%	21.68%	46.11%	+0.3	20
1966-09-25	B 1903	W 3-2	1241	1323	41.68%	21.68%	36.63%	+4.9	15
1966-09-25	@ B 1909	L 2-3	1323	1241	36.63%	21.68%	41.68%	-4.9	15
1966-09-25	B 1913	W 5-0	1375	1236	66.16%	20.19%	13.64%	+10.3	24
1966-09-25	@ Hvidovre	L 0-5	1236	1375	13.64%	20.19%	66.16%	-10.3	11
1966-09-25	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1313	1337	49.44%	21.63%	28.94%	+8.6	19
1966-09-25	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1337	1313	28.94%	21.63%	49.44%	-8.6	15
1966-09-25	Vejle BK	W 5-1	1305	1388	41.60%	21.68%	36.72%	+16.5	17
1966-09-25	@ Koge BK	L 1-5	1388	1305	36.72%	21.68%	41.60%	-16.5	19
1966-10-01	Frem	L 0-2	1318	1345	49.12%	21.63%	29.24%	-13.2	15
1966-10-01	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1345	1318	29.24%	21.63%	49.12%	+13.2	22
1966-10-02	B 1909	W 5-1	1328	1246	61.16%	20.90%	17.94%	+9.0	17
1966-10-02	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-5	1246	1328	17.94%	20.90%	61.16%	-9.0	15
1966-10-02	Koge BK	W 2-1	1226	1321	39.76%	21.66%	38.58%	+5.4	13
1966-10-02	@ B 1913	L 1-2	1321	1226	38.58%	21.66%	39.76%	-5.4	17
1966-10-02	Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1386	1295	62.02%	20.80%	17.19%	+5.5	26
1966-10-02	@ Hvidovre	L 0-2	1295	1386	17.19%	20.80%	62.02%	-5.5	19
1966-10-02	Esbjerg	W 5-2	1321	1367	46.66%	21.68%	31.66%	+9.8	21
1966-10-02	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-5	1367	1321	31.66%	21.68%	46.66%	-9.8	18
1966-10-02	Aalborg	L 0-4	1371	1272	62.76%	20.71%	16.54%	-31.6	19
1966-10-02	@ Vejle BK	W 4-0	1272	1371	16.54%	20.71%	62.76%	+31.6	14
1966-10-09	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1304	1337	48.22%	21.65%	30.12%	+8.9	16
1966-10-09	@ Aalborg	L 0-2	1337	1304	30.12%	21.65%	48.22%	-8.9	17
1966-10-09	KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1289	1331	47.12%	21.67%	31.21%	-15.7	19
1966-10-09	@ Aarhus GF	W 4-1	1331	1289	31.21%	21.67%	47.12%	+15.6	23
1966-10-09	Vejle BK	L 0-3	1237	1340	38.81%	21.65%	39.55%	-15.8	15
1966-10-09	@ B 1909	W 3-0	1340	1237	39.55%	21.65%	38.81%	+15.8	21
1966-10-09	B 1903	D 0-0	1357	1305	58.17%	21.18%	20.65%	-1.4	19
1966-10-09	@ Esbjerg	D 0-0	1305	1357	20.65%	21.18%	58.17%	+1.4	16
1966-10-09	B 1913	W 2-1	1358	1231	65.17%	20.36%	14.47%	+2.3	24
1966-10-09	@ Frem	L 1-2	1231	1358	14.47%	20.36%	65.17%	-2.3	13
1966-10-09	Hvidovre	L 1-2	1316	1391	42.65%	21.69%	35.65%	-5.9	17
1966-10-09	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1391	1316	35.65%	21.69%	42.65%	+5.9	28
1966-10-13	Aarhus GF	L 3-5	1355	1273	61.16%	20.90%	17.94%	-11.9	21
1966-10-13	@ Vejle BK	W 5-3	1273	1355	17.94%	20.90%	61.16%	+11.9	21
1966-10-16	Esbjerg	W 3-1	1328	1356	49.01%	21.64%	29.36%	+7.5	19
1966-10-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1356	1328	29.36%	21.64%	49.01%	-7.5	19
1966-10-16	Aalborg	W 1-0	1229	1312	41.46%	21.68%	36.86%	+5.5	15
1966-10-16	@ B 1913	L 0-1	1312	1229	36.86%	21.68%	41.46%	-5.5	16
1966-10-16	Frem	D 0-0	1397	1361	56.54%	21.30%	22.15%	-1.2	29
1966-10-16	@ Hvidovre	D 0-0	1361	1397	22.15%	21.30%	56.54%	+1.2	25
1966-10-16	B 1903	L 0-1	1347	1307	56.94%	21.28%	21.78%	-8.0	23
1966-10-16	@ KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1307	1347	21.78%	21.28%	56.94%	+8.0	18
1966-10-16	B 1909	D 2-2	1310	1221	61.80%	20.82%	17.37%	-1.1	18
1966-10-16	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1221	1310	17.37%	20.82%	61.80%	+1.1	16
1966-10-23	KB Copenhagen	W 2-0	1307	1339	48.45%	21.65%	29.90%	+8.8	18
1966-10-23	@ Aalborg	L 0-2	1339	1307	29.90%	21.65%	48.45%	-8.8	23
1966-10-23	Koge BK	W 3-2	1285	1309	49.48%	21.63%	28.89%	+4.1	23
1966-10-23	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1309	1285	28.89%	21.63%	49.48%	-4.1	18
1966-10-23	Hvidovre	L 2-6	1222	1396	29.41%	21.28%	49.32%	-11.7	16
1966-10-23	@ B 1909	W 6-2	1396	1222	49.32%	21.28%	29.41%	+11.7	31
1966-10-23	Vejle BK	W 2-0	1348	1344	52.93%	21.51%	25.56%	+7.8	21
1966-10-23	@ Esbjerg	L 0-2	1344	1348	25.56%	21.51%	52.93%	-7.8	21
1966-10-23	B 1913	W 3-2	1315	1234	61.01%	20.91%	18.08%	+2.7	20
1966-10-23	@ B 1903	L 2-3	1234	1315	18.08%	20.91%	61.01%	-2.7	15
1966-10-23	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1362	1336	55.39%	21.38%	23.23%	-7.8	25
1966-10-23	@ Frem	W 1-0	1336	1362	23.23%	21.38%	55.39%	+7.8	21
1966-10-30	Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1232	1289	45.02%	21.69%	33.29%	-9.5	15
1966-10-30	@ B 1913	W 4-2	1289	1232	33.29%	21.69%	45.02%	+9.5	25
1966-10-30	Frem	L 1-2	1356	1354	52.62%	21.52%	25.86%	-7.0	21
1966-10-30	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1354	1356	25.86%	21.52%	52.62%	+7.0	27
1966-10-30	Aalborg	L 0-1	1407	1316	62.07%	20.79%	17.14%	-8.7	31
1966-10-30	@ Hvidovre	W 1-0	1316	1407	17.14%	20.79%	62.07%	+8.7	20
1966-10-30	B 1909	W 5-3	1330	1211	64.50%	20.46%	15.04%	+3.5	25
1966-10-30	@ KB Copenhagen	L 3-5	1211	1330	15.04%	20.46%	64.50%	-3.5	16
1966-10-30	B 1903	D 1-1	1305	1317	50.89%	21.58%	27.53%	-0.8	19
1966-10-30	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1317	1305	27.53%	21.58%	50.89%	+0.7	21
1966-10-30	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1336	1344	51.44%	21.57%	26.99%	+8.1	23
1966-10-30	@ Vejle BK	L 0-2	1344	1336	26.99%	21.57%	51.44%	-8.1	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1966-06-01	16.48%	Aarhus GF	1272	4	@ Esbjerg	1372	1
2	1966-10-02	16.54%	Aalborg	1272	4	@ Vejle BK	1371	0
3	1966-10-30	17.14%	Aalborg	1316	1	@ Hvidovre	1407	0
4	1966-10-13	17.94%	Aarhus GF	1273	5	@ Vejle BK	1355	3
5	1966-06-19	18.22%	Koge BK	1306	1	@ Vejle BK	1385	0
6	1966-06-01	18.63%	B 1909	1270	2	@ B 1903	1344	0
7	1966-08-28	19.27%	B 1903	1310	4	@ Vejle BK	1376	1
8	1966-06-05	20.81%	Aarhus GF	1292	2	@ Frem	1342	0
9	1966-06-05	21.33%	B 1913	1266	4	@ Koge BK	1311	2
10	1966-10-16	21.78%	B 1903	1307	1	@ KB Copenhagen	1347	0
11	1966-09-04	22.45%	Aarhus GF	1295	3	@ B 1903	1329	2
12	1966-04-24	22.90%	AB Gladsaxe	1314	1	@ B 1903	1343	0
13	1966-10-23	23.23%	AB Gladsaxe	1336	1	@ Frem	1362	0
14	1966-06-11	24.56%	KB Copenhagen	1287	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1301	0
15	1966-09-04	24.98%	B 1909	1258	4	@ Aalborg	1268	2
16	1966-09-04	25.21%	Vejle BK	1357	2	@ Frem	1365	0
17	1966-05-22	25.63%	Koge BK	1304	3	@ Aalborg	1308	2
18	1966-10-30	25.86%	Frem	1354	2	@ Esbjerg	1356	1
19	1966-04-24	26.46%	Hvidovre	1318	2	@ Aalborg	1315	0
20	1966-04-21	26.75%	KB Copenhagen	1292	1	@ B 1909	1286	0
21	1966-06-19	27.43%	B 1903	1296	2	@ Aalborg	1285	1
22	1966-05-12	28.24%	Aalborg	1306	2	@ Aarhus GF	1288	0
23	1966-05-10	28.40%	Hvidovre	1341	2	@ AB Gladsaxe	1321	0
24	1966-08-14	29.02%	B 1903	1303	2	@ B 1913	1278	1
25	1966-09-04	29.13%	KB Copenhagen	1302	2	@ B 1913	1276	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1966-10-02	31.59	Aalborg	4	1272	16.54%	@ Vejle BK	0	1371	62.76%	20.71%
2	1966-06-12	25.36	Vejle BK	6	1359	29.89%	@ B 1903	1	1328	48.46%	21.65%
3	1966-09-07	22.03	Esbjerg	4	1349	36.27%	@ B 1909	0	1269	42.04%	21.69%
4	1966-09-04	20.85	@ AB Gladsaxe	5	1290	48.17%	Koge BK	0	1324	30.18%	21.65%
5	1966-06-01	20.42	Aarhus GF	4	1272	16.48%	@ Esbjerg	1	1372	62.82%	20.70%
6	1966-08-28	19.43	B 1903	4	1310	19.27%	@ Vejle BK	1	1376	59.68%	21.05%
7	1966-09-11	17.50	AB Gladsaxe	3	1319	34.36%	@ B 1913	0	1253	43.95%	21.69%
8	1966-09-25	16.49	@ Koge BK	5	1305	41.60%	Vejle BK	1	1388	36.72%	21.68%
9	1966-06-01	16.04	B 1909	2	1270	18.63%	@ B 1903	0	1344	60.39%	20.98%
10	1966-10-09	15.82	Vejle BK	3	1340	39.55%	@ B 1909	0	1237	38.81%	21.65%
11	1966-10-09	15.66	KB Copenhagen	4	1331	31.21%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1289	47.12%	21.67%
12	1966-04-12	15.59	@ Aarhus GF	3	1265	40.24%	Vejle BK	0	1357	38.09%	21.67%
13	1966-06-05	15.43	Aarhus GF	2	1292	20.81%	@ Frem	0	1342	57.99%	21.20%
14	1966-08-21	15.14	Frem	4	1340	32.98%	@ B 1909	1	1285	45.33%	21.69%
15	1966-06-11	14.43	KB Copenhagen	2	1287	24.56%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1301	53.98%	21.46%
16	1966-05-04	14.41	@ Frem	4	1326	53.62%	Koge BK	0	1316	24.91%	21.47%
17	1966-09-04	14.26	Vejle BK	2	1357	25.21%	@ Frem	0	1365	53.30%	21.49%
18	1966-04-24	13.94	Hvidovre	2	1318	26.46%	@ Aalborg	0	1315	52.00%	21.55%
19	1966-05-12	13.50	Aalborg	2	1306	28.24%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1288	50.15%	21.61%
20	1966-09-07	13.48	@ Aalborg	3	1257	46.62%	Aarhus GF	0	1303	31.70%	21.68%
21	1966-05-10	13.46	Hvidovre	2	1341	28.40%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1321	49.99%	21.61%
22	1966-09-04	13.28	KB Copenhagen	2	1302	29.13%	@ B 1913	0	1276	49.24%	21.63%
23	1966-10-01	13.25	Frem	2	1345	29.24%	@ B 1903	0	1318	49.12%	21.63%
24	1966-05-08	12.37	@ Koge BK	5	1301	52.69%	KB Copenhagen	1	1299	25.79%	21.52%
25	1966-10-13	11.89	Aarhus GF	5	1273	17.94%	@ Vejle BK	3	1355	61.16%	20.90%