1965 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Esbjerg

31 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1963

Relegated

B 1901

8 pts

B.93 · 11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vejle BK

5.86 points above expected

30 points · 24.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B 1901

8.96 points below expected

8 points · 16.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Esbjerg Champion 22 12 7 3 31 53 24 +29 27.55 +3.45
2 Vejle BK 22 13 4 5 30 54 28 +26 24.14 +5.86
3 B 1903 22 11 6 5 28 47 26 +21 24.67 +3.33
4 Frem 22 10 7 5 27 33 19 +14 23.55 +3.45
5 Hvidovre 22 9 8 5 26 36 27 +9 23.64 +2.36
6 KB Copenhagen 22 9 4 9 22 27 36 -9 21.35 +0.65
7 Aalborg 22 7 7 8 21 32 27 +5 22.64 -1.64
8 Aarhus GF 22 7 7 8 21 37 45 -8 22.62 -1.62
9 B 1909 22 9 2 11 20 37 48 -11 19.82 +0.18
10 B 1913 22 7 5 10 19 33 39 -6 20.61 -1.61
11 B.93 Relegated 22 4 3 15 11 21 56 -35 16.45 -5.45
12 B 1901 Relegated 22 2 4 16 8 24 59 -35 16.96 -8.96

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Esbjerg 1570 31 27.55 +3.45 85.3% 13 21 25 28 30 34 40
Vejle BK 1527 30 24.14 +5.86 94.7% 11 18 21 24 27 31 39
B 1903 1487 28 24.67 +3.33 83.7% 11 18 22 25 27 31 38
Frem 1453 27 23.55 +3.45 84.4% 10 17 21 24 26 30 36
Hvidovre 1432 26 23.64 +2.36 76.0% 8 17 21 24 26 30 39
Aalborg 1388 21 22.64 -1.64 38.0% 7 16 20 23 25 29 36
KB Copenhagen 1371 22 21.35 +0.65 61.3% 8 15 19 21 24 28 37
B 1913 1350 19 20.61 -1.61 39.2% 7 14 18 21 23 27 35
B 1909 1329 20 19.82 +0.18 57.2% 5 13 17 20 22 26 35
Aarhus GF 1301 21 22.62 -1.62 38.4% 6 16 20 23 25 29 38
B.93 1190 11 16.45 -5.45 9.2% 3 10 14 16 19 23 32
B 1901 1183 8 16.96 -8.96 1.2% 5 11 14 17 20 23 31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL AG B1 B1 B1 B1 B.9 ESB FRE HVI KC VB
Aalborg
1-1-0
2.70
2-0-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.38
2-0-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.63
0-1-1
1.99
0-2-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.97
0-0-2
3.26
0-1-1
2.42
Aarhus GF
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
3.64
0-2-0
2.44
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.20
B 1901
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
1.82
0-0-2
2.03
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.60
0-0-2
1.36
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
2.04
0-2-0
2.18
0-0-2
1.92
B 1903
2-0-0
3.10
1-1-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.48
0-0-2
3.53
2-0-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.54
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.87
0-2-0
2.71
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
3.27
B 1909
0-0-2
2.51
1-0-1
2.36
2-0-0
3.03
2-0-0
1.96
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
1.76
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.64
1-0-1
1.82
B 1913
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.35
1-1-0
3.29
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.52
0-0-2
1.72
0-2-0
2.18
1-1-0
2.14
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.65
B.93
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-1
1.85
0-1-1
2.88
0-0-2
1.96
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
1.98
1-0-1
1.51
0-0-2
1.84
0-1-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-2
1.87
Esbjerg
1-1-0
3.51
0-2-0
3.05
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.75
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
4.02
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.20
0-2-0
3.22
Frem
0-2-0
2.86
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
3.05
0-2-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.66
1-0-1
2.13
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.43
Hvidovre
1-1-0
2.52
1-1-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.45
0-2-0
2.78
1-1-0
3.02
0-1-1
3.35
1-1-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.57
2-0-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.76
KB Copenhagen
2-0-0
2.23
1-0-1
2.78
0-2-0
3.31
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.30
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.47
0-1-1
2.37
Vejle BK
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
3.67
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.63
0-2-0
2.27
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
3.12

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.71 +5.7
Allowed 0.81 -4.8
Differential 0.94 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%5.30%4.55%4.55%1.52%3.41%25.38%
15.30%9.85%4.92%5.68%1.52%0.76%28.03%
24.55%4.92%7.58%3.03%0.76%1.14%21.97%
34.55%5.68%3.03%0.76%0.76%14.77%
41.52%1.52%0.76%0.76%4.55%
5+3.41%0.76%1.14%5.30%
Total25.38%28.03%21.97%14.77%4.55%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.50 1.50 2.37
CV 0.91 0.91
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%45.45%
113.64%4.55%18.18%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total36.36%36.36%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.87 1.51 2.79
CV 1.29 1.23
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
19.09%9.09%18.18%
213.64%18.18%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total4.55%31.82%31.82%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.05 -0.36
SD 1.25 1.17 1.94
CV 0.74 0.57
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%13.64%9.09%40.91%
14.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
24.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%4.55%22.73%36.36%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.68 -1.59
SD 1.11 1.59 2.15
CV 1.02 0.59
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
39.09%9.09%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%9.09%13.64%
Total36.36%27.27%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.18 +0.95
SD 1.98 1.18 2.40
CV 0.93 1.00
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%4.55%13.64%31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%22.73%27.27%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.18 -0.50
SD 1.46 1.30 2.20
CV 0.87 0.59
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%27.27%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%13.64%18.18%
39.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%40.91%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.77 -0.27
SD 1.26 1.23 1.91
CV 0.84 0.69
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%13.64%40.91%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total13.64%18.18%31.82%13.64%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 2.55 -1.59
SD 1.00 2.06 2.46
CV 1.05 0.81
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
39.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total36.36%36.36%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 1.09 +1.32
SD 1.74 1.15 2.23
CV 0.72 1.06
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
313.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
4
5+
Total36.36%40.91%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.86 +0.64
SD 1.22 0.77 1.47
CV 0.82 0.90
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
213.64%18.18%9.09%40.91%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total45.45%9.09%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.23 +0.41
SD 1.26 1.31 1.65
CV 0.77 1.06
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
118.18%9.09%4.55%9.09%40.91%
29.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total31.82%22.73%18.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.64 -0.41
SD 0.92 1.73 2.13
CV 0.75 1.06
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
39.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%
5+13.64%4.55%18.18%
Total31.82%45.45%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.27 +1.18
SD 1.90 1.52 2.92
CV 0.77 1.19
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vejle BK 30 24.14 +5.86
2 Esbjerg 31 27.55 +3.45
3 Frem 27 23.55 +3.45
4 B 1903 28 24.67 +3.33
5 Hvidovre 26 23.64 +2.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1901 8 16.96 -8.96
2 B.93 11 16.45 -5.45
3 Aalborg 21 22.64 -1.64
4 Aarhus GF 21 22.62 -1.62
5 B 1913 19 20.61 -1.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vejle BK 8 Aug 22 – Oct 24 1 in 634
2 B 1903 4 Apr 19 – May 9 1 in 44
3 B 1909 3 Jun 13 – Aug 29 1 in 29
4 Frem 3 Apr 4 – Apr 19 1 in 20
5 B 1913 3 Nov 7 – Nov 20 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 5 Apr 11 – May 5 1 in 116
2 Aalborg 4 Oct 3 – Nov 7 1 in 46
3 B.93 4 Jun 13 – Sep 5 1 in 30
4 Aarhus GF 3 Sep 2 – Sep 16 1 in 22
5 B 1903 2 Aug 22 – Aug 29 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vejle BK 11 Aug 22 – Nov 21 1 in 47
2 B 1903 6 Apr 10 – May 16 1 in 14
3 Aarhus GF 6 Apr 4 – May 5 1 in 12
4 Esbjerg 6 Apr 19 – May 18 1 in 11
5 Hvidovre 4 Apr 4 – Apr 25 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aarhus GF 9 Jun 5 – Oct 10 1 in 65
2 Aalborg 6 Apr 19 – May 23 1 in 15
3 KB Copenhagen 5 May 9 – May 30 1 in 12
4 B 1909 5 Apr 11 – May 5 1 in 9
5 B 1901 9 Sep 5 – Nov 21 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Esbjerg40.06%21.58%12.59%8.53%6.09%4.27%2.67%1.83%1.12%0.83%0.37%0.06%
Vejle BK12.34%13.64%13.82%12.13%11.17%9.40%8.25%7.15%5.55%3.45%2.03%1.07%
B 190314.06%15.73%15.10%12.71%10.43%8.98%7.14%5.87%4.60%2.95%1.77%0.66%
Frem8.24%11.54%12.38%12.31%11.56%10.52%9.60%7.66%6.69%5.12%3.10%1.28%
Hvidovre8.85%11.45%12.20%11.06%11.72%10.73%9.78%8.09%6.85%4.84%2.96%1.47%
KB Copenhagen2.87%4.52%5.88%7.68%9.09%9.83%11.80%12.00%11.72%11.29%8.34%4.98%
Aalborg5.70%7.76%9.39%11.16%11.36%11.00%10.83%9.85%8.59%7.10%4.69%2.57%
Aarhus GF5.10%7.30%8.68%9.96%10.90%11.59%10.97%10.83%9.33%7.26%5.49%2.59%
B 19090.90%2.27%3.82%4.89%6.07%7.96%9.76%11.97%14.47%14.72%13.72%9.45%
B 19131.69%3.43%4.72%7.07%7.83%9.76%10.68%11.82%12.87%12.89%10.41%6.83%
B.930.07%0.33%0.67%0.98%1.44%2.65%3.90%6.02%8.38%14.64%23.68%37.24%
B 19010.12%0.45%0.75%1.52%2.34%3.31%4.62%6.91%9.83%14.91%23.44%31.80%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.55%
No Edge
40.15%24.24%35.61%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.80 Elo pts.
109 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.08 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Esbjerg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.12 * Some Luck: 3.12 to 4.69 * Lucky: 4.69 to 6.25 * Wild Swing: 6.25 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.9 * Close: 1.9 to 2.85 * Off: 2.85 to 3.8 * Way Off: 3.8 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.84 * A Surprise: 0.84 to 1.34 * Several Surprises: 1.34 to 1.84 * Many Surprises: 1.84 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.01 points
Some Luck
03.9010
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.375
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.69%
Vejle BK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.18%
B 1901
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.51
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.18
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.63
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1510.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Esbjerg 99.57% 0.43%
B 1903 97.57% 2.43%
Vejle BK 96.90% 3.10%
Frem 95.62% 4.38%
Hvidovre 95.57% 4.43%
Aalborg 92.74% 7.26%
Aarhus GF 91.92% 8.08%
KB Copenhagen 86.68% 13.32%
B 1913 82.76% 17.24%
B 1909 76.83% 23.17%
B 1901 44.76% 55.24%
B.93 39.08% 60.92%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1965-04-04 B 1909 L 2-3 1373 1398 36.92% 25.70% 37.38% -9.2 0
1965-04-04 @ B 1901 W 3-2 1398 1373 37.38% 25.70% 36.92% +9.2 2
1965-04-04 Aalborg D 1-1 1377 1375 40.76% 25.69% 33.55% -0.4 1
1965-04-04 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1375 1377 33.55% 25.69% 40.76% +0.4 1
1965-04-04 B 1903 W 3-0 1418 1367 47.27% 25.55% 27.18% +22.3 2
1965-04-04 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1367 1418 27.18% 25.55% 47.27% -22.3 0
1965-04-04 Vejle BK W 2-0 1358 1379 37.63% 25.70% 36.67% +19.3 2
1965-04-04 @ Frem L 0-2 1379 1358 36.67% 25.70% 37.63% -19.3 0
1965-04-04 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1372 1398 36.86% 25.70% 37.44% +0.0 1
1965-04-04 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1398 1372 37.44% 25.70% 36.86% -0.0 1
1965-04-04 B.93 W 1-0 1407 1360 46.80% 25.57% 27.64% +8.3 2
1965-04-04 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1360 1407 27.64% 25.57% 46.80% -8.3 0
1965-04-10 Hvidovre D 1-1 1345 1372 36.64% 25.70% 37.66% +0.1 1
1965-04-10 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1372 1345 37.66% 25.70% 36.64% -0.1 2
1965-04-11 B 1901 W 2-0 1375 1364 42.04% 25.68% 32.28% +17.6 3
1965-04-11 @ Aalborg L 0-2 1364 1375 32.28% 25.68% 42.04% -17.6 0
1965-04-11 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1398 1416 37.98% 25.70% 36.32% +9.6 3
1965-04-11 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1416 1398 36.32% 25.70% 37.98% -9.6 2
1965-04-11 Frem L 1-3 1408 1378 44.55% 25.63% 29.81% -19.5 2
1965-04-11 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1378 1408 29.81% 25.63% 44.55% +19.5 4
1965-04-11 Esbjerg W 3-1 1352 1441 28.38% 25.52% 46.10% +20.0 2
1965-04-11 @ B.93 L 1-3 1441 1352 46.10% 25.52% 28.38% -20.1 2
1965-04-11 B 1913 L 3-4 1359 1376 38.11% 25.70% 36.18% -9.2 0
1965-04-11 @ Vejle BK W 4-3 1376 1359 36.18% 25.70% 38.11% +9.2 3
1965-04-19 B 1903 L 0-2 1346 1345 40.71% 25.69% 33.59% -20.9 0
1965-04-19 @ B 1901 W 2-0 1345 1346 33.59% 25.69% 40.71% +20.9 3
1965-04-19 Vejle BK D 1-1 1421 1350 49.62% 25.45% 24.93% -1.4 3
1965-04-19 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1350 1421 24.93% 25.45% 49.62% +1.4 1
1965-04-19 B.93 W 3-0 1397 1372 43.96% 25.65% 30.40% +24.4 6
1965-04-19 @ Frem L 0-3 1372 1397 30.40% 25.65% 43.96% -24.4 2
1965-04-19 Aalborg D 0-0 1372 1393 37.56% 25.70% 36.73% -0.0 3
1965-04-19 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1393 1372 36.73% 25.70% 37.56% +0.0 4
1965-04-19 B 1909 W 3-2 1406 1388 42.93% 25.67% 31.40% +8.2 4
1965-04-19 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1388 1406 31.40% 25.67% 42.93% -8.2 2
1965-04-20 Aarhus GF L 1-4 1385 1407 37.42% 25.70% 36.87% -24.0 3
1965-04-20 @ B 1913 W 4-1 1407 1385 36.87% 25.70% 37.42% +24.0 5
1965-04-25 Frem D 0-0 1393 1421 36.43% 25.70% 37.87% +0.1 5
1965-04-25 @ Aalborg D 0-0 1421 1393 37.87% 25.70% 36.43% -0.1 7
1965-04-25 Esbjerg D 1-1 1431 1419 42.16% 25.68% 32.16% -0.5 6
1965-04-25 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1419 1431 32.16% 25.68% 42.16% +0.5 4
1965-04-25 Hvidovre L 0-2 1380 1372 41.62% 25.69% 32.70% -21.3 2
1965-04-25 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1372 1380 32.70% 25.69% 41.62% +21.3 5
1965-04-25 B 1901 D 0-0 1347 1325 43.47% 25.66% 30.87% -0.8 3
1965-04-25 @ B.93 D 0-0 1325 1347 30.87% 25.66% 43.47% +0.8 1
1965-04-25 B 1913 W 2-1 1366 1361 41.09% 25.69% 33.22% +9.0 5
1965-04-25 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1361 1366 33.22% 25.69% 41.09% -9.0 3
1965-04-25 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1351 1414 31.77% 25.63% 42.60% +18.8 3
1965-04-25 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1414 1351 42.60% 25.63% 31.77% -18.8 4
1965-05-02 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1393 1395 40.16% 25.70% 34.14% -11.0 5
1965-05-02 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1395 1393 34.14% 25.70% 40.16% +11.0 6
1965-05-02 Vejle BK L 0-5 1326 1370 34.27% 25.68% 40.05% -43.0 1
1965-05-02 @ B 1901 W 5-0 1370 1326 40.05% 25.68% 34.27% +43.0 5
1965-05-02 B 1909 W 2-1 1352 1359 39.63% 25.70% 34.67% +9.3 5
1965-05-02 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1359 1352 34.67% 25.70% 39.63% -9.3 2
1965-05-02 B 1903 L 2-7 1346 1375 36.50% 25.70% 37.80% -31.2 3
1965-05-02 @ B.93 W 7-2 1375 1346 37.80% 25.70% 36.50% +31.2 7
1965-05-02 Hvidovre W 3-2 1420 1393 44.10% 25.64% 30.26% +7.9 6
1965-05-02 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1393 1420 30.26% 25.64% 44.10% -7.9 5
1965-05-02 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1421 1431 39.19% 25.70% 35.10% -10.2 7
1965-05-02 @ Frem W 2-1 1431 1421 35.10% 25.70% 39.19% +10.2 8
1965-05-05 B 1909 W 4-2 1441 1349 52.05% 25.31% 22.64% +10.3 10
1965-05-05 @ Aarhus GF L 2-4 1349 1441 22.64% 25.31% 52.05% -10.3 2
1965-05-09 B 1901 D 2-2 1362 1283 50.56% 25.40% 24.04% -1.1 6
1965-05-09 @ B 1913 D 2-2 1283 1362 24.04% 25.40% 50.56% +1.1 2
1965-05-09 Aalborg W 3-1 1406 1382 43.76% 25.65% 30.59% +14.6 9
1965-05-09 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1382 1406 30.59% 25.65% 43.76% -14.6 5
1965-05-09 Frem W 1-0 1385 1411 36.82% 25.70% 37.48% +10.4 7
1965-05-09 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1411 1385 37.48% 25.70% 36.82% -10.4 7
1965-05-09 Esbjerg L 0-2 1406 1428 37.48% 25.70% 36.81% -19.7 6
1965-05-09 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1428 1406 36.81% 25.70% 37.48% +19.7 8
1965-05-09 B.93 W 5-0 1413 1315 52.77% 25.26% 21.97% +30.3 7
1965-05-09 @ Vejle BK L 0-5 1315 1413 21.97% 25.26% 52.77% -30.3 3
1965-05-13 Hvidovre L 2-3 1387 1396 39.24% 25.70% 35.06% -9.7 6
1965-05-13 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1396 1387 35.06% 25.70% 39.24% +9.7 9
1965-05-14 Esbjerg D 1-1 1367 1447 29.51% 25.56% 44.93% +0.9 6
1965-05-14 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1447 1367 44.93% 25.56% 29.51% -0.9 9
1965-05-14 Vejle BK W 3-1 1339 1444 26.53% 25.43% 48.03% +20.8 4
1965-05-14 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1444 1339 48.03% 25.43% 26.53% -20.8 7
1965-05-16 Aarhus GF W 4-0 1284 1451 19.92% 24.93% 55.15% +51.5 4
1965-05-16 @ B 1901 L 0-4 1451 1284 55.15% 24.93% 19.92% -51.5 10
1965-05-16 B 1913 D 1-1 1401 1361 45.88% 25.60% 28.53% -1.0 8
1965-05-16 @ Frem D 1-1 1361 1401 28.53% 25.60% 45.88% +1.0 7
1965-05-16 B.93 D 2-2 1405 1285 55.15% 25.07% 19.77% -1.6 10
1965-05-16 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1285 1405 19.77% 25.07% 55.15% +1.6 4
1965-05-16 B 1903 D 0-0 1377 1420 34.35% 25.68% 39.97% +0.3 7
1965-05-16 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1420 1377 39.97% 25.68% 34.35% -0.3 10
1965-05-18 Esbjerg L 0-4 1360 1446 28.69% 25.53% 45.78% -30.4 4
1965-05-18 @ B 1909 W 4-0 1446 1360 45.78% 25.53% 28.69% +30.4 11
1965-05-20 Aarhus GF L 0-3 1423 1400 43.64% 25.65% 30.71% -32.2 7
1965-05-20 @ Vejle BK W 3-0 1400 1423 30.71% 25.65% 43.64% +32.2 12
1965-05-22 Hvidovre L 2-4 1336 1404 31.07% 25.61% 43.32% -13.2 4
1965-05-22 @ B 1901 W 4-2 1404 1336 43.32% 25.61% 31.07% +13.2 12
1965-05-22 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1361 1377 38.28% 25.71% 36.02% +16.5 9
1965-05-22 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1377 1361 36.02% 25.71% 38.28% -16.5 7
1965-05-23 B 1903 W 2-1 1329 1420 28.18% 25.51% 46.31% +11.6 6
1965-05-23 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1420 1329 46.31% 25.51% 28.18% -11.6 10
1965-05-23 Aalborg W 1-0 1286 1368 29.31% 25.56% 45.13% +12.1 6
1965-05-23 @ B.93 L 0-1 1368 1286 45.13% 25.56% 29.31% -12.1 6
1965-05-23 Frem L 1-2 1477 1400 50.39% 25.41% 24.20% -12.5 11
1965-05-23 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1400 1477 24.20% 25.41% 50.39% +12.5 10
1965-05-29 B 1903 D 0-0 1412 1408 41.02% 25.69% 33.28% -0.5 11
1965-05-29 @ Frem D 0-0 1408 1412 33.28% 25.69% 41.02% +0.5 11
1965-05-30 B 1909 W 2-0 1356 1341 42.55% 25.67% 31.78% +17.4 8
1965-05-30 @ Aalborg L 0-2 1341 1356 31.78% 25.67% 42.55% -17.4 6
1965-05-30 B.93 W 2-1 1432 1299 56.46% 24.95% 18.59% +5.6 14
1965-05-30 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1299 1432 18.59% 24.95% 56.46% -5.6 6
1965-05-30 B 1913 W 1-0 1464 1378 51.46% 25.35% 23.20% +7.2 13
1965-05-30 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1378 1464 23.20% 25.35% 51.46% -7.2 9
1965-05-30 Vejle BK L 1-3 1417 1391 44.07% 25.64% 30.29% -19.3 12
1965-05-30 @ Hvidovre W 3-1 1391 1417 30.29% 25.64% 44.07% +19.3 9
1965-05-30 B 1901 D 1-1 1361 1323 45.61% 25.60% 28.78% -0.9 8
1965-05-30 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1323 1361 28.78% 25.60% 45.61% +1.0 5
1965-06-05 Frem L 0-3 1324 1412 28.48% 25.52% 46.00% -23.2 5
1965-06-05 @ B 1901 W 3-0 1412 1324 46.00% 25.52% 28.48% +23.1 13
1965-06-05 B.93 L 1-2 1371 1293 50.49% 25.40% 24.10% -12.5 9
1965-06-05 @ B 1913 W 2-1 1293 1371 24.10% 25.40% 50.49% +12.5 8
1965-06-05 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1409 1437 36.47% 25.70% 37.83% +17.1 13
1965-06-05 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1437 1409 37.83% 25.70% 36.47% -17.1 14
1965-06-05 Aalborg D 1-1 1410 1373 45.40% 25.61% 28.99% -0.9 10
1965-06-05 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1373 1410 28.99% 25.61% 45.40% +0.9 9
1965-06-12 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1435 1360 50.17% 25.42% 24.41% -24.9 13
1965-06-12 @ Frem W 2-0 1360 1435 24.41% 25.42% 50.17% +24.9 10
1965-06-13 Aalborg L 0-3 1420 1374 46.61% 25.57% 27.82% -34.0 14
1965-06-13 @ Aarhus GF W 3-0 1374 1420 27.82% 25.57% 46.61% +34.0 11
1965-06-13 B 1909 L 0-1 1305 1324 37.93% 25.70% 36.36% -10.5 8
1965-06-13 @ B.93 W 1-0 1324 1305 36.36% 25.70% 37.93% +10.5 8
1965-06-13 B 1901 W 4-1 1471 1300 59.99% 24.53% 15.48% +11.8 15
1965-06-13 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1300 1471 15.48% 24.53% 59.99% -11.8 5
1965-06-13 Vejle BK W 6-0 1426 1409 42.84% 25.67% 31.49% +47.9 15
1965-06-13 @ B 1903 L 0-6 1409 1426 31.49% 25.67% 42.84% -47.9 10
1965-06-13 B 1913 D 2-2 1398 1358 45.76% 25.60% 28.64% -0.7 13
1965-06-13 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1358 1398 28.64% 25.60% 45.76% +0.7 10
1965-08-22 B 1913 W 5-1 1408 1359 47.02% 25.56% 27.42% +24.5 13
1965-08-22 @ Aalborg L 1-5 1359 1408 27.42% 25.56% 47.02% -24.5 10
1965-08-22 Frem D 1-1 1386 1410 37.14% 25.70% 37.15% +0.0 15
1965-08-22 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1410 1386 37.15% 25.70% 37.14% +0.0 14
1965-08-22 B 1901 W 3-1 1334 1289 46.56% 25.58% 27.87% +13.6 10
1965-08-22 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1289 1334 27.87% 25.58% 46.56% -13.6 5
1965-08-22 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1295 1385 28.29% 25.52% 46.19% -7.9 8
1965-08-22 @ B.93 W 2-1 1385 1295 46.19% 25.52% 28.29% +7.9 12
1965-08-22 Esbjerg D 0-0 1397 1483 28.72% 25.53% 45.75% +1.1 14
1965-08-22 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1483 1397 45.75% 25.53% 28.72% -1.1 16
1965-08-22 B 1903 W 2-1 1361 1474 25.55% 25.38% 49.07% +12.2 12
1965-08-22 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1474 1361 49.07% 25.38% 25.55% -12.2 15
1965-08-26 Vejle BK L 0-3 1335 1373 35.01% 25.69% 39.30% -27.1 10
1965-08-26 @ B 1913 W 3-0 1373 1335 39.30% 25.69% 35.01% +27.1 14
1965-08-28 B.93 W 2-0 1275 1287 38.82% 25.70% 35.47% +18.9 7
1965-08-28 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1287 1275 35.47% 25.70% 38.82% -18.9 8
1965-08-28 Frem L 2-3 1393 1410 38.05% 25.70% 36.24% -9.4 12
1965-08-28 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1410 1393 36.24% 25.70% 38.05% +9.4 16
1965-08-29 Hvidovre L 0-1 1433 1398 45.18% 25.62% 29.21% -12.1 13
1965-08-29 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1398 1433 29.21% 25.62% 45.18% +12.1 16
1965-08-29 Aarhus GF D 3-3 1482 1386 52.53% 25.28% 22.19% -1.1 17
1965-08-29 @ Esbjerg D 3-3 1386 1482 22.19% 25.28% 52.53% +1.1 16
1965-08-29 B 1909 L 1-4 1462 1348 54.49% 25.13% 20.38% -32.9 15
1965-08-29 @ B 1903 W 4-1 1348 1462 20.38% 25.13% 54.49% +32.9 12
1965-09-02 B 1913 L 0-3 1387 1307 50.74% 25.39% 23.87% -36.6 16
1965-09-02 @ Aarhus GF W 3-0 1307 1387 23.87% 25.39% 50.74% +36.6 12
1965-09-05 Aalborg L 1-3 1381 1421 34.85% 25.68% 39.47% -16.1 12
1965-09-05 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1421 1381 39.47% 25.68% 34.85% +16.1 15
1965-09-05 Vejle BK L 1-7 1268 1400 23.40% 25.24% 51.36% -31.2 8
1965-09-05 @ B.93 W 7-1 1400 1268 51.36% 25.24% 23.40% +31.2 16
1965-09-05 KB Copenhagen W 7-0 1481 1383 52.75% 25.26% 21.99% +41.7 19
1965-09-05 @ Esbjerg L 0-7 1383 1481 21.99% 25.26% 52.75% -41.7 12
1965-09-05 B 1901 W 3-0 1419 1294 55.69% 25.03% 19.29% +16.9 18
1965-09-05 @ Frem L 0-3 1294 1419 19.29% 25.03% 55.69% -16.9 7
1965-09-05 B 1903 D 0-0 1410 1429 37.85% 25.70% 36.45% -0.1 17
1965-09-05 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1429 1410 36.45% 25.70% 37.85% +0.1 16
1965-09-11 B.93 L 0-3 1365 1237 55.90% 25.01% 19.10% -40.0 12
1965-09-11 @ B 1909 W 3-0 1237 1365 19.10% 25.01% 55.90% +40.0 10
1965-09-12 Esbjerg L 2-3 1277 1523 13.62% 23.96% 62.42% -4.0 7
1965-09-12 @ B 1901 W 3-2 1523 1277 62.42% 23.96% 13.62% +4.0 21
1965-09-12 B 1903 L 0-1 1344 1429 28.89% 25.54% 45.57% -8.5 12
1965-09-12 @ B 1913 W 1-0 1429 1344 45.57% 25.54% 28.89% +8.5 18
1965-09-12 Aalborg D 0-0 1436 1437 40.44% 25.70% 33.87% -0.4 19
1965-09-12 @ Frem D 0-0 1437 1436 33.87% 25.70% 40.44% +0.4 16
1965-09-12 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1342 1351 39.20% 25.70% 35.09% +9.9 14
1965-09-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1351 1342 35.09% 25.70% 39.20% -9.9 16
1965-09-12 Hvidovre W 4-1 1432 1410 43.45% 25.66% 30.89% +20.8 18
1965-09-12 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1410 1432 30.89% 25.66% 43.45% -20.8 17
1965-09-16 B.93 W 5-0 1437 1277 59.02% 24.66% 16.32% +23.5 18
1965-09-16 @ Aalborg L 0-5 1277 1437 16.32% 24.66% 59.02% -23.5 10
1965-09-16 Vejle BK L 1-3 1341 1452 25.70% 25.39% 48.90% -12.7 16
1965-09-16 @ Aarhus GF W 3-1 1452 1341 48.90% 25.39% 25.70% +12.7 20
1965-09-19 Frem D 2-2 1335 1436 27.00% 25.46% 47.55% +0.9 13
1965-09-19 @ B 1913 D 2-2 1436 1335 47.55% 25.46% 27.00% -0.9 20
1965-09-19 B 1909 L 3-4 1527 1325 62.58% 24.13% 13.29% -14.2 21
1965-09-19 @ Esbjerg W 4-3 1325 1527 13.29% 24.13% 62.58% +14.2 14
1965-09-19 KB Copenhagen W 4-0 1437 1352 51.42% 25.35% 23.23% +25.7 20
1965-09-19 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1352 1437 23.23% 25.35% 51.42% -25.7 14
1965-09-19 B 1901 W 2-0 1389 1273 54.72% 25.11% 20.17% +12.1 19
1965-09-19 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1273 1389 20.17% 25.11% 54.72% -12.1 7
1965-10-02 Hvidovre L 0-5 1253 1401 21.78% 25.11% 53.11% -30.0 10
1965-10-02 @ B.93 W 5-0 1401 1253 53.11% 25.11% 21.78% +30.0 21
1965-10-03 B 1903 D 2-2 1328 1463 23.11% 25.22% 51.67% +1.2 17
1965-10-03 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1463 1328 51.67% 25.22% 23.11% -1.2 21
1965-10-03 B 1913 W 1-0 1339 1336 40.85% 25.69% 33.46% +9.6 16
1965-10-03 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1336 1339 33.46% 25.69% 40.85% -9.6 13
1965-10-03 Esbjerg L 1-2 1435 1513 29.83% 25.57% 44.59% -8.3 20
1965-10-03 @ Frem W 2-1 1513 1435 44.59% 25.57% 29.83% +8.3 23
1965-10-03 Aalborg W 2-0 1326 1461 23.12% 25.22% 51.66% +25.6 16
1965-10-03 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1461 1326 51.66% 25.22% 23.12% -25.6 18
1965-10-03 B 1901 W 3-0 1465 1261 62.74% 24.10% 13.16% +12.0 22
1965-10-03 @ Vejle BK L 0-3 1261 1465 13.16% 24.10% 62.74% -12.0 7
1965-10-09 Frem L 1-3 1462 1427 45.22% 25.62% 29.16% -19.7 21
1965-10-09 @ B 1903 W 3-1 1427 1462 29.16% 25.62% 45.22% +19.8 22
1965-10-10 Vejle BK L 0-2 1435 1477 34.55% 25.68% 39.76% -18.5 18
1965-10-10 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1477 1435 39.76% 25.68% 34.55% +18.5 24
1965-10-10 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1249 1351 26.77% 25.45% 47.79% +0.9 8
1965-10-10 @ B 1901 D 2-2 1351 1249 47.79% 25.45% 26.77% -0.9 17
1965-10-10 Esbjerg L 0-3 1327 1521 17.50% 24.63% 57.87% -15.5 13
1965-10-10 @ B 1913 W 3-0 1521 1327 57.87% 24.63% 17.50% +15.5 25
1965-10-10 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1223 1329 26.34% 25.43% 48.23% +0.9 11
1965-10-10 @ B.93 D 2-2 1329 1223 48.23% 25.43% 26.34% -0.9 18
1965-10-10 B 1909 D 2-2 1431 1348 51.06% 25.37% 23.57% -1.2 22
1965-10-10 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1348 1431 23.57% 25.37% 51.06% +1.2 17
1965-10-23 Hvidovre W 1-0 1447 1430 42.76% 25.67% 31.57% +9.2 24
1965-10-23 @ Frem L 0-1 1430 1447 31.57% 25.67% 42.76% -9.2 22
1965-10-24 B 1901 W 3-2 1328 1250 50.58% 25.40% 24.02% +6.6 20
1965-10-24 @ Aarhus GF L 2-3 1250 1328 24.02% 25.40% 50.58% -6.6 8
1965-10-24 Aalborg W 6-0 1536 1417 55.08% 25.08% 19.84% +33.0 27
1965-10-24 @ Esbjerg L 0-6 1417 1536 19.84% 25.08% 55.08% -33.0 18
1965-10-24 B.93 W 2-1 1442 1224 63.80% 23.90% 12.30% +3.9 23
1965-10-24 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1224 1442 12.30% 23.90% 63.80% -3.9 11
1965-10-24 B 1913 W 1-0 1350 1311 45.74% 25.60% 28.66% +8.5 19
1965-10-24 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1311 1350 28.66% 25.60% 45.74% -8.5 13
1965-10-24 B 1909 W 5-0 1496 1350 57.70% 24.82% 17.48% +25.0 26
1965-10-24 @ Vejle BK L 0-5 1350 1496 17.48% 24.82% 57.70% -25.0 17
1965-11-07 B 1903 L 0-4 1384 1446 31.78% 25.63% 42.59% -32.9 18
1965-11-07 @ Aalborg W 4-0 1446 1384 42.59% 25.63% 31.78% +32.9 25
1965-11-07 B 1913 L 1-3 1243 1303 32.17% 25.64% 42.19% -15.2 8
1965-11-07 @ B 1901 W 3-1 1303 1243 42.19% 25.64% 32.17% +15.2 15
1965-11-07 Aarhus GF W 5-2 1325 1335 39.03% 25.70% 35.27% +19.9 19
1965-11-07 @ B 1909 L 2-5 1335 1325 35.27% 25.70% 39.03% -19.9 20
1965-11-07 Frem L 1-3 1220 1456 14.33% 24.11% 61.56% -7.7 11
1965-11-07 @ B.93 W 3-1 1456 1220 61.56% 24.11% 14.33% +7.7 26
1965-11-07 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1421 1359 48.58% 25.50% 25.92% +7.9 24
1965-11-07 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1359 1421 25.92% 25.50% 48.58% -7.9 19
1965-11-07 Esbjerg D 1-1 1521 1569 33.64% 25.67% 40.69% +0.4 27
1965-11-07 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1569 1521 40.69% 25.67% 33.64% -0.4 28
1965-11-13 B 1901 W 5-2 1479 1228 66.17% 23.39% 10.44% +7.1 27
1965-11-13 @ B 1903 L 2-5 1228 1479 10.44% 23.39% 66.17% -7.1 8
1965-11-14 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1351 1315 45.27% 25.61% 29.12% -0.7 19
1965-11-14 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1315 1351 29.12% 25.61% 45.27% +0.7 21
1965-11-14 Hvidovre W 3-2 1318 1429 25.79% 25.40% 48.81% +11.5 17
1965-11-14 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1429 1318 48.81% 25.40% 25.79% -11.5 24
1965-11-14 B.93 W 2-1 1569 1213 72.35% 21.45% 6.20% +2.0 30
1965-11-14 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1213 1569 6.20% 21.45% 72.35% -2.0 11
1965-11-14 B 1909 D 1-1 1463 1345 55.00% 25.09% 19.91% -2.1 27
1965-11-14 @ Frem D 1-1 1345 1463 19.91% 25.09% 55.00% +2.1 20
1965-11-14 Vejle BK D 1-1 1351 1521 19.63% 24.90% 55.47% +2.1 20
1965-11-14 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1521 1351 55.47% 24.90% 19.63% -2.1 28
1965-11-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1347 1353 39.57% 25.70% 34.72% -17.7 20
1965-11-20 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1353 1347 34.72% 25.70% 39.57% +17.7 22
1965-11-20 B 1913 L 0-3 1211 1329 24.89% 25.34% 49.77% -20.8 11
1965-11-20 @ B.93 W 3-0 1329 1211 49.77% 25.34% 24.89% +20.8 19
1965-11-21 Hvidovre L 0-2 1316 1417 26.90% 25.45% 47.65% -15.2 21
1965-11-21 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1417 1316 47.65% 25.45% 26.90% +15.2 26
1965-11-21 Aalborg L 0-6 1221 1350 23.75% 25.27% 50.99% -38.3 8
1965-11-21 @ B 1901 W 6-0 1350 1221 50.99% 25.27% 23.75% +38.3 21
1965-11-21 Esbjerg D 1-1 1486 1571 28.91% 25.54% 45.55% +0.9 28
1965-11-21 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1571 1486 45.55% 25.54% 28.91% -0.9 31
1965-11-21 Frem W 1-0 1519 1461 48.05% 25.52% 26.43% +8.0 30
1965-11-21 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1461 1519 26.43% 25.52% 48.05% -8.0 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-09-19 13.29% B 1909 1325 4 @ Esbjerg 1527 3
2 1965-09-11 19.10% B.93 1237 3 @ B 1909 1365 0
3 1965-05-16 19.92% @ B 1901 1284 4 Aarhus GF 1451 0
4 1965-08-29 20.38% B 1909 1348 4 @ B 1903 1462 1
5 1965-10-03 23.12% @ KB Copenhagen 1326 2 Aalborg 1461 0
6 1965-09-02 23.87% B 1913 1307 3 @ Aarhus GF 1387 0
7 1965-06-05 24.10% B.93 1293 2 @ B 1913 1371 1
8 1965-05-23 24.20% Frem 1400 2 @ Esbjerg 1477 1
9 1965-06-12 24.41% KB Copenhagen 1360 2 @ Frem 1435 0
10 1965-08-22 25.55% @ Vejle BK 1361 2 B 1903 1474 1
11 1965-11-14 25.79% @ B 1913 1318 3 Hvidovre 1429 2
12 1965-05-14 26.53% @ B 1909 1339 3 Vejle BK 1444 1
13 1965-06-13 27.82% Aalborg 1374 3 @ Aarhus GF 1420 0
14 1965-05-23 28.18% @ B 1909 1329 2 B 1903 1420 1
15 1965-04-11 28.38% @ B.93 1352 3 Esbjerg 1441 1
16 1965-10-09 29.16% Frem 1427 3 @ B 1903 1462 1
17 1965-08-29 29.21% Hvidovre 1398 1 @ Aalborg 1433 0
18 1965-05-23 29.31% @ B.93 1286 1 Aalborg 1368 0
19 1965-04-11 29.81% Frem 1378 3 @ B 1909 1408 1
20 1965-05-30 30.29% Vejle BK 1391 3 @ Hvidovre 1417 1
21 1965-05-20 30.71% Aarhus GF 1400 3 @ Vejle BK 1423 0
22 1965-04-25 31.77% @ Vejle BK 1351 3 KB Copenhagen 1414 1
23 1965-04-25 32.70% Hvidovre 1372 2 @ B 1909 1380 0
24 1965-04-19 33.59% B 1903 1345 2 @ B 1901 1346 0
25 1965-05-02 34.14% KB Copenhagen 1395 1 @ Aalborg 1393 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-05-16 51.51 @ B 1901 4 1284 19.92% Aarhus GF 0 1451 55.15% 24.93%
2 1965-06-13 47.89 @ B 1903 6 1426 42.84% Vejle BK 0 1409 31.49% 25.67%
3 1965-05-02 42.98 Vejle BK 5 1370 40.05% @ B 1901 0 1326 34.27% 25.68%
4 1965-09-05 41.67 @ Esbjerg 7 1481 52.75% KB Copenhagen 0 1383 21.99% 25.26%
5 1965-09-11 39.99 B.93 3 1237 19.10% @ B 1909 0 1365 55.90% 25.01%
6 1965-11-21 38.27 Aalborg 6 1350 50.99% @ B 1901 0 1221 23.75% 25.27%
7 1965-09-02 36.58 B 1913 3 1307 23.87% @ Aarhus GF 0 1387 50.74% 25.39%
8 1965-06-13 33.97 Aalborg 3 1374 27.82% @ Aarhus GF 0 1420 46.61% 25.57%
9 1965-10-24 33.04 @ Esbjerg 6 1536 55.08% Aalborg 0 1417 19.84% 25.08%
10 1965-08-29 32.93 B 1909 4 1348 20.38% @ B 1903 1 1462 54.49% 25.13%
11 1965-11-07 32.93 B 1903 4 1446 42.59% @ Aalborg 0 1384 31.78% 25.63%
12 1965-05-20 32.16 Aarhus GF 3 1400 30.71% @ Vejle BK 0 1423 43.64% 25.65%
13 1965-05-02 31.22 B 1903 7 1375 37.80% @ B.93 2 1346 36.50% 25.70%
14 1965-09-05 31.19 Vejle BK 7 1400 51.36% @ B.93 1 1268 23.40% 25.24%
15 1965-05-18 30.42 Esbjerg 4 1446 45.78% @ B 1909 0 1360 28.69% 25.53%
16 1965-05-09 30.29 @ Vejle BK 5 1413 52.77% B.93 0 1315 21.97% 25.26%
17 1965-10-02 30.01 Hvidovre 5 1401 53.11% @ B.93 0 1253 21.78% 25.11%
18 1965-08-26 27.13 Vejle BK 3 1373 39.30% @ B 1913 0 1335 35.01% 25.69%
19 1965-09-19 25.73 @ B 1903 4 1437 51.42% KB Copenhagen 0 1352 23.23% 25.35%
20 1965-10-03 25.57 @ KB Copenhagen 2 1326 23.12% Aalborg 0 1461 51.66% 25.22%
21 1965-10-24 24.97 @ Vejle BK 5 1496 57.70% B 1909 0 1350 17.48% 24.82%
22 1965-06-12 24.93 KB Copenhagen 2 1360 24.41% @ Frem 0 1435 50.17% 25.42%
23 1965-08-22 24.48 @ Aalborg 5 1408 47.02% B 1913 1 1359 27.42% 25.56%
24 1965-04-19 24.37 @ Frem 3 1397 43.96% B.93 0 1372 30.40% 25.65%
25 1965-04-20 24.05 Aarhus GF 4 1407 36.87% @ B 1913 1 1385 37.42% 25.70%