1964 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

B 1909

31 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1959

Relegated

Bronshoj

8 pts

AB Gladsaxe · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

B 1909

6.59 points above expected

31 points · 24.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bronshoj

8.58 points below expected

8 points · 16.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 B 1909 Champion 22 14 3 5 31 53 33 +20 24.41 +6.59
2 Aarhus GF 22 14 2 6 30 49 34 +15 24.83 +5.17
3 KB Copenhagen 22 13 3 6 29 62 41 +21 25.70 +3.30
4 Esbjerg 22 11 6 5 28 48 30 +18 28.08 -0.08
5 Vejle BK 22 10 5 7 25 35 32 +3 22.18 +2.82
6 B 1913 22 9 5 8 23 42 42 0 24.72 -1.72
7 B 1901 22 8 3 11 19 42 47 -5 22.24 -3.24
8 B.93 22 6 6 10 18 34 40 -6 17.52 +0.48
9 Frem 22 6 6 10 18 29 35 -6 17.15 +0.85
10 B 1903 22 6 6 10 18 36 48 -12 20.41 -2.41
11 AB Gladsaxe Relegated 22 6 5 11 17 32 39 -7 20.16 -3.16
12 Bronshoj Relegated 22 2 4 16 8 22 63 -41 16.58 -8.58

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Esbjerg 1613 28 28.08 -0.08 53.9% 15 22 26 28 31 34 41
KB Copenhagen 1591 29 25.70 +3.30 82.9% 10 19 23 26 28 32 40
Aarhus GF 1569 30 24.83 +5.17 92.7% 9 18 22 25 28 31 39
B 1909 1566 31 24.41 +6.59 96.4% 10 18 22 24 27 31 40
Vejle BK 1492 25 22.18 +2.82 79.6% 8 16 19 22 25 29 37
B 1913 1482 23 24.72 -1.72 37.4% 11 18 22 25 27 31 39
B 1901 1462 19 22.24 -3.24 24.9% 5 16 20 22 25 29 37
B 1903 1445 18 20.41 -2.41 31.6% 5 14 18 20 23 27 35
AB Gladsaxe 1439 17 20.16 -3.16 25.7% 4 14 17 20 23 27 34
B.93 1414 18 17.52 +0.48 59.8% 3 11 15 17 20 24 34
Frem 1409 18 17.15 +0.85 63.8% 4 11 15 17 20 24 33
Bronshoj 1281 8 16.58 -8.58 1.5% 3 10 14 17 19 23 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B1 B1 B1 B.9 BRO ESB FRE KC VB
AB Gladsaxe
0-1-1
2.31
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
2.19
0-2-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
1.74
2-0-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.12
0-0-2
2.49
Aarhus GF
1-1-0
3.26
2-0-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.47
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.82
1-0-1
3.82
2-0-0
4.13
1-1-0
2.17
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.95
B 1901
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
3.03
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.53
0-1-1
3.63
0-0-2
2.17
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
2.04
2-0-0
2.70
B 1903
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.10
2-0-0
2.53
0-1-1
2.12
1-1-0
2.11
0-1-1
3.14
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
1.92
0-0-2
3.19
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
2.53
B 1909
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
2.74
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
3.85
2-0-0
2.57
2-0-0
2.99
B 1913
0-1-1
3.38
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
3.15
0-1-1
3.46
2-0-0
2.83
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
3.85
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
3.17
B.93
0-2-0
2.46
1-0-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-2
2.05
2-0-0
2.70
0-1-1
1.50
1-1-0
2.76
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
2.39
Bronshoj
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
1.45
1-1-0
1.95
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
1.88
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
2.87
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
2.11
Esbjerg
1-1-0
3.84
0-1-1
3.40
2-0-0
3.40
1-1-0
3.66
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
4.08
2-0-0
4.11
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.17
0-1-1
3.66
Frem
0-0-2
2.67
0-0-2
1.77
0-0-2
2.20
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
1.73
1-1-0
1.73
0-1-1
2.81
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
1.49
0-2-0
1.87
1-0-1
1.85
KB Copenhagen
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
3.00
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.84
2-0-0
3.96
1-0-1
2.40
0-2-0
3.70
0-1-1
3.50
Vejle BK
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.87
1-1-0
3.04
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.18
0-1-1
3.46
1-1-0
1.91
1-0-1
3.72
1-1-0
2.07

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.78 +5.4
Allowed 0.60 -5.8
Differential 0.94 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%4.55%6.44%1.89%1.14%0.76%16.29%
14.55%9.85%6.06%4.92%1.89%3.03%30.30%
26.44%6.06%8.33%3.41%2.27%1.89%28.41%
31.89%4.92%3.41%0.76%0.38%1.14%12.50%
41.14%1.89%2.27%0.38%5.68%
5+0.76%3.03%1.89%1.14%6.82%
Total16.29%30.30%28.41%12.50%5.68%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.43 2.14
CV 0.78 0.78
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%36.36%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%31.82%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.77 -0.32
SD 1.37 1.38 2.15
CV 0.94 0.78
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
118.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%36.36%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%13.64%
Total27.27%31.82%18.18%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.55 +0.68
SD 1.72 1.44 2.44
CV 0.77 0.93
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
213.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total13.64%22.73%27.27%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 2.14 -0.23
SD 1.11 1.49 1.90
CV 0.58 0.70
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total9.09%27.27%36.36%9.09%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.18 -0.55
SD 1.14 1.59 2.09
CV 0.69 0.73
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%31.82%
29.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
49.09%9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total18.18%40.91%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.41 1.50 +0.91
SD 1.68 1.22 2.29
CV 0.70 0.82
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%18.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
39.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
4
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total9.09%36.36%22.73%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.91 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.27 1.66
CV 0.74 0.66
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%9.09%31.82%
118.18%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%40.91%27.27%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.82 -0.27
SD 1.47 1.33 1.98
CV 0.95 0.73
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
113.64%9.09%9.09%13.64%45.45%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total4.55%27.27%18.18%18.18%4.55%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.86 -1.86
SD 0.98 1.93 2.19
CV 0.98 0.68
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
14.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
29.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
4
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%36.36%31.82%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.36 +0.82
SD 1.50 1.18 1.79
CV 0.69 0.86
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
14.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%36.36%
29.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%27.27%36.36%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.59 -0.27
SD 1.04 1.10 1.75
CV 0.79 0.69
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%
213.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+9.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
Total13.64%31.82%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 1.86 +0.95
SD 1.59 1.42 2.30
CV 0.57 0.76
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
218.18%4.55%9.09%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total31.82%13.64%40.91%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.45 +0.14
SD 1.18 1.26 1.81
CV 0.74 0.87
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1909 31 24.41 +6.59
2 Aarhus GF 30 24.83 +5.17
3 KB Copenhagen 29 25.70 +3.30
4 Vejle BK 25 22.18 +2.82
5 Frem 18 17.15 +0.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bronshoj 8 16.58 -8.58
2 B 1901 19 22.24 -3.24
3 AB Gladsaxe 17 20.16 -3.16
4 B 1903 18 20.41 -2.41
5 B 1913 23 24.72 -1.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 6 Apr 19 – May 24 1 in 204
2 Vejle BK 4 Oct 4 – Nov 8 1 in 78
3 Aarhus GF 4 Aug 30 – Sep 27 1 in 59
4 B.93 3 Aug 23 – Sep 9 1 in 18
5 KB Copenhagen 4 Sep 12 – Oct 4 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bronshoj 7 May 24 – Sep 20 1 in 73
2 B 1903 4 Aug 22 – Sep 13 1 in 51
3 AB Gladsaxe 3 Apr 12 – Apr 28 1 in 20
4 B 1913 3 Sep 20 – Oct 4 1 in 18
5 B 1901 3 Apr 12 – Apr 26 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B.93 7 May 24 – Sep 13 1 in 100
2 B 1913 9 Apr 4 – May 28 1 in 52
3 Vejle BK 7 May 10 – Aug 23 1 in 47
4 Frem 5 Apr 12 – May 9 1 in 31
5 B 1903 5 May 10 – Jun 6 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bronshoj 17 May 3 – Nov 15 1 in 124
2 Frem 9 Aug 29 – Nov 8 1 in 30
3 B 1913 5 Sep 13 – Oct 18 1 in 19
4 B 1903 6 May 31 – Sep 13 1 in 18
5 Esbjerg 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
B 190911.30%13.65%14.96%13.22%11.90%9.89%8.44%6.14%5.02%3.16%1.73%0.59%
Aarhus GF12.22%15.82%14.55%13.72%11.98%9.24%7.81%5.79%4.03%2.72%1.50%0.62%
KB Copenhagen18.20%18.06%15.97%13.13%10.26%8.28%6.23%4.25%2.77%1.69%0.83%0.33%
Esbjerg38.43%21.52%13.81%9.85%6.55%4.21%2.84%1.40%0.84%0.31%0.22%0.02%
Vejle BK3.32%6.10%8.04%10.44%11.75%12.69%12.26%11.57%9.15%6.93%4.95%2.80%
B 191310.33%12.83%14.24%14.05%12.30%11.64%8.35%6.41%4.61%2.87%1.63%0.74%
B 19013.50%5.93%7.99%9.34%11.42%12.15%12.13%12.14%9.41%7.93%5.24%2.82%
B.930.31%0.50%1.12%2.08%3.49%5.17%7.09%10.49%13.01%16.47%19.08%21.19%
Frem0.12%0.43%0.78%1.73%3.05%4.46%6.46%9.22%13.14%16.89%20.62%23.10%
B 19031.08%2.62%4.23%5.60%7.77%10.04%11.34%12.83%13.79%12.88%10.79%7.03%
AB Gladsaxe1.14%2.26%3.72%5.84%7.81%9.10%12.08%13.21%13.78%12.63%10.60%7.83%
Bronshoj0.05%0.28%0.59%1.00%1.72%3.13%4.97%6.55%10.45%15.52%22.81%32.93%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.36%
Slight Edge
45.45%20.45%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 39.65 Elo pts.
139 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.44 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
11%
B 1909, 4th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.15 * Some Luck: 3.15 to 4.73 * Lucky: 4.73 to 6.3 * Wild Swing: 6.3 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.71 * Close: 1.71 to 2.57 * Off: 2.57 to 3.43 * Way Off: 3.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.01 * A Surprise: 1.01 to 1.61 * Several Surprises: 1.61 to 2.21 * Many Surprises: 2.21 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.01 points
Some Luck
03.9410
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Close
02.145
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.43%
B 1909
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.52%
Bronshoj
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.46
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.73
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Esbjerg 99.76% 0.24%
KB Copenhagen 98.84% 1.16%
Aarhus GF 97.88% 2.12%
B 1909 97.68% 2.32%
B 1913 97.63% 2.37%
Vejle BK 92.25% 7.75%
B 1901 91.94% 8.06%
B 1903 82.18% 17.82%
AB Gladsaxe 81.57% 18.43%
B.93 59.73% 40.27%
Frem 56.28% 43.72%
Bronshoj 44.26% 55.74%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1964-03-26 B.93 D 1-1 1489 1402 57.99% 21.27% 20.74% -1.8 1
1964-03-26 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1402 1489 20.74% 21.27% 57.99% +1.8 1
1964-03-29 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1487 1469 50.19% 21.60% 28.21% +6.0 2
1964-03-29 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1469 1487 28.21% 21.60% 50.19% -6.0 0
1964-03-29 B 1903 W 2-1 1499 1487 49.54% 21.61% 28.85% +6.2 2
1964-03-29 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1487 1499 28.85% 21.61% 49.54% -6.2 1
1964-03-29 Bronshoj L 1-2 1484 1466 50.22% 21.60% 28.18% -9.7 0
1964-03-29 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1466 1484 28.18% 21.60% 50.22% +9.7 2
1964-03-30 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1569 1506 55.43% 21.41% 23.16% -1.1 1
1964-03-30 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1506 1569 23.16% 21.41% 55.43% +1.1 1
1964-03-30 B 1901 L 1-2 1395 1491 34.64% 21.62% 43.74% -7.1 0
1964-03-30 @ Frem W 2-1 1491 1395 43.74% 21.62% 34.64% +7.1 2
1964-04-04 B 1913 L 0-1 1507 1507 47.93% 21.65% 30.42% -9.9 1
1964-04-04 @ Aarhus GF W 1-0 1507 1507 30.42% 21.65% 47.93% +9.9 2
1964-04-04 B.93 W 2-0 1498 1404 58.80% 21.21% 19.98% +9.0 4
1964-04-04 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1404 1498 19.98% 21.21% 58.80% -9.0 1
1964-04-05 Bronshoj W 3-0 1463 1476 46.26% 21.67% 32.07% +19.5 2
1964-04-05 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1476 1463 32.07% 21.67% 46.26% -19.5 2
1964-04-05 KB Copenhagen W 6-2 1493 1506 46.31% 21.67% 32.02% +18.0 4
1964-04-05 @ B 1909 L 2-6 1506 1493 32.02% 21.67% 46.31% -18.0 2
1964-04-05 Esbjerg D 0-0 1481 1568 35.90% 21.64% 42.46% +0.3 2
1964-04-05 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1568 1481 42.46% 21.64% 35.90% -0.3 2
1964-04-05 Frem W 2-0 1475 1388 58.06% 21.26% 20.68% +9.3 2
1964-04-05 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1388 1475 20.68% 21.26% 58.06% -9.3 0
1964-04-11 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1481 1488 47.05% 21.66% 31.29% -14.2 2
1964-04-11 @ B 1903 W 4-2 1488 1481 31.29% 21.66% 47.05% +14.2 4
1964-04-12 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1483 1498 45.98% 21.67% 32.35% -9.5 2
1964-04-12 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1498 1483 32.35% 21.67% 45.98% +9.5 3
1964-04-12 Esbjerg L 0-1 1507 1567 39.70% 21.69% 38.62% -8.4 4
1964-04-12 @ B 1901 W 1-0 1567 1507 38.62% 21.69% 39.70% +8.4 4
1964-04-12 Vejle BK D 1-1 1517 1484 52.06% 21.55% 26.40% -1.2 3
1964-04-12 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1484 1517 26.40% 21.55% 52.06% +1.2 3
1964-04-12 B 1909 W 2-0 1378 1511 29.88% 21.48% 48.64% +18.8 2
1964-04-12 @ Frem L 0-2 1511 1378 48.64% 21.48% 29.88% -18.8 4
1964-04-14 Bronshoj W 2-0 1395 1457 39.48% 21.68% 38.84% +15.6 3
1964-04-14 @ B.93 L 0-2 1457 1395 38.84% 21.68% 39.48% -15.6 2
1964-04-18 B 1903 L 1-4 1473 1467 48.76% 21.63% 29.61% -23.1 2
1964-04-18 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1467 1473 29.61% 21.63% 48.76% +23.1 4
1964-04-19 Vejle BK W 2-1 1507 1485 50.69% 21.59% 27.73% +6.0 5
1964-04-19 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1485 1507 27.73% 21.59% 50.69% -6.0 3
1964-04-19 B 1901 W 3-2 1492 1499 47.09% 21.66% 31.25% +6.2 6
1964-04-19 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1499 1492 31.25% 21.66% 47.09% -6.2 4
1964-04-19 B 1913 L 0-1 1410 1516 33.38% 21.59% 45.03% -7.3 3
1964-04-19 @ B.93 W 1-0 1516 1410 45.03% 21.59% 33.38% +7.3 5
1964-04-19 Frem L 1-3 1441 1397 53.30% 21.50% 25.20% -17.7 2
1964-04-19 @ Bronshoj W 3-1 1397 1441 25.20% 21.50% 53.30% +17.7 4
1964-04-19 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1576 1502 56.69% 21.34% 21.96% +8.5 6
1964-04-19 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1502 1576 21.96% 21.34% 56.69% -8.5 4
1964-04-25 Frem D 1-1 1403 1415 46.38% 21.67% 31.96% -0.6 4
1964-04-25 @ B.93 D 1-1 1415 1403 31.96% 21.67% 46.38% +0.6 5
1964-04-26 B 1903 W 5-0 1513 1490 50.85% 21.58% 27.57% +27.7 7
1964-04-26 @ Aarhus GF L 0-5 1490 1513 27.57% 21.58% 50.85% -27.7 4
1964-04-26 B 1901 W 4-1 1423 1493 38.38% 21.67% 39.94% +19.6 4
1964-04-26 @ Bronshoj L 1-4 1493 1423 39.94% 21.67% 38.38% -19.6 4
1964-04-27 Esbjerg W 3-2 1523 1584 39.60% 21.68% 38.72% +7.4 7
1964-04-27 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1584 1523 38.72% 21.68% 39.60% -7.4 6
1964-04-28 AB Gladsaxe W 5-3 1493 1450 53.23% 21.50% 25.27% +8.1 6
1964-04-28 @ KB Copenhagen L 3-5 1450 1493 25.27% 21.50% 53.23% -8.1 2
1964-04-28 B 1909 L 1-2 1479 1499 45.36% 21.68% 32.96% -8.9 3
1964-04-28 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1499 1479 32.96% 21.68% 45.36% +8.9 8
1964-04-29 B 1903 W 2-1 1415 1462 41.62% 21.69% 36.69% +7.5 7
1964-04-29 @ Frem L 1-2 1462 1415 36.69% 21.69% 41.62% -7.5 4
1964-05-02 B 1913 D 1-1 1442 1531 35.68% 21.64% 42.68% +0.3 3
1964-05-02 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1531 1442 42.68% 21.64% 35.68% -0.3 8
1964-05-02 B.93 W 2-0 1508 1402 59.86% 21.14% 19.00% +8.6 10
1964-05-02 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1402 1508 19.00% 21.14% 59.86% -8.6 4
1964-05-03 Vejle BK W 2-0 1473 1470 48.26% 21.64% 30.10% +12.8 6
1964-05-03 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1470 1473 30.10% 21.64% 48.26% -12.8 3
1964-05-03 Esbjerg L 0-2 1443 1577 29.71% 21.48% 48.81% -12.6 4
1964-05-03 @ Bronshoj W 2-0 1577 1443 48.81% 21.48% 29.71% +12.6 8
1964-05-03 Aarhus GF W 4-0 1501 1541 42.62% 21.69% 35.68% +27.7 8
1964-05-03 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1541 1501 35.68% 21.69% 42.62% -27.7 7
1964-05-09 Frem D 2-2 1529 1423 59.95% 21.13% 18.92% -1.5 9
1964-05-09 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1423 1529 18.92% 21.13% 59.95% +1.5 8
1964-05-10 B 1901 W 2-1 1513 1486 51.35% 21.57% 27.08% +5.9 9
1964-05-10 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1486 1513 27.08% 21.57% 51.35% -5.8 6
1964-05-10 B 1903 D 1-1 1531 1455 56.88% 21.33% 21.79% -1.6 9
1964-05-10 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1455 1531 21.79% 21.33% 56.88% +1.6 5
1964-05-10 Vejle BK L 0-1 1394 1458 39.17% 21.68% 39.14% -8.3 4
1964-05-10 @ B.93 W 1-0 1458 1394 39.14% 21.68% 39.17% +8.3 5
1964-05-10 B 1909 L 1-3 1430 1516 36.05% 21.64% 42.30% -12.8 4
1964-05-10 @ Bronshoj W 3-1 1516 1430 42.30% 21.64% 36.05% +12.8 12
1964-05-10 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1590 1442 63.67% 20.79% 15.54% -2.3 9
1964-05-10 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1442 1590 15.54% 20.79% 63.67% +2.3 4
1964-05-14 Aarhus GF W 4-1 1529 1519 49.20% 21.62% 29.18% +15.2 14
1964-05-14 @ B 1909 L 1-4 1519 1529 29.18% 21.62% 49.20% -15.2 9
1964-05-16 B 1913 L 2-3 1480 1529 41.29% 21.69% 37.01% -7.8 6
1964-05-16 @ B 1901 W 3-2 1529 1480 37.01% 21.69% 41.29% +7.8 11
1964-05-16 B 1903 D 1-1 1417 1456 42.70% 21.69% 35.61% -0.3 5
1964-05-16 @ Bronshoj D 1-1 1456 1417 35.61% 21.69% 42.70% +0.3 6
1964-05-17 KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1385 1528 28.73% 21.44% 49.83% -17.8 4
1964-05-17 @ B.93 W 3-0 1528 1385 49.83% 21.44% 28.73% +17.8 11
1964-05-17 AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1424 1445 45.24% 21.68% 33.08% -17.7 8
1964-05-17 @ Frem W 2-0 1445 1424 33.08% 21.68% 45.24% +17.7 6
1964-05-17 Esbjerg D 1-1 1466 1587 31.36% 21.53% 47.11% +0.7 6
1964-05-17 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1587 1466 47.11% 21.53% 31.36% -0.7 10
1964-05-24 Frem W 4-2 1504 1407 59.05% 21.20% 19.75% +6.9 11
1964-05-24 @ Aarhus GF L 2-4 1407 1504 19.75% 21.20% 59.05% -6.9 8
1964-05-24 B.93 D 1-1 1462 1368 58.83% 21.21% 19.95% -1.9 7
1964-05-24 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1368 1462 19.95% 21.21% 58.83% +1.8 5
1964-05-24 Bronshoj W 5-2 1537 1417 61.23% 21.03% 17.75% +8.6 13
1964-05-24 @ B 1913 L 2-5 1417 1537 17.75% 21.03% 61.23% -8.6 5
1964-05-24 B 1909 L 0-1 1586 1544 53.14% 21.51% 25.35% -10.8 10
1964-05-24 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1544 1586 25.35% 21.51% 53.14% +10.8 16
1964-05-24 B 1901 W 2-1 1457 1472 45.88% 21.67% 32.44% +6.8 8
1964-05-24 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1472 1457 32.44% 21.67% 45.88% -6.8 6
1964-05-24 Vejle BK D 2-2 1545 1467 57.18% 21.32% 21.50% -1.2 12
1964-05-24 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1467 1545 21.50% 21.32% 57.18% +1.2 7
1964-05-28 B 1913 L 1-3 1555 1545 49.16% 21.62% 29.21% -16.5 16
1964-05-28 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1545 1555 29.21% 21.62% 49.16% +16.5 15
1964-05-30 KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1408 1544 29.53% 21.47% 49.00% -23.8 5
1964-05-30 @ Bronshoj W 4-0 1544 1408 49.00% 21.47% 29.53% +23.8 14
1964-05-31 AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1465 1461 48.54% 21.64% 29.83% +12.7 8
1964-05-31 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1461 1465 29.83% 21.64% 48.54% -12.6 7
1964-05-31 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1369 1511 28.87% 21.44% 49.69% +16.6 7
1964-05-31 @ B.93 L 1-3 1511 1369 49.69% 21.44% 28.87% -16.6 11
1964-05-31 Esbjerg L 0-2 1400 1576 24.84% 21.24% 53.92% -10.8 8
1964-05-31 @ Frem W 2-0 1576 1400 53.92% 21.24% 24.84% +10.8 12
1964-05-31 B 1903 D 2-2 1468 1463 48.51% 21.64% 29.86% -0.6 8
1964-05-31 @ Vejle BK D 2-2 1463 1468 29.86% 21.64% 48.51% +0.6 9
1964-06-06 KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1478 1568 35.51% 21.64% 42.85% +13.1 10
1964-06-06 @ B 1901 L 2-4 1568 1478 42.85% 21.64% 35.51% -13.1 14
1964-06-06 Frem L 0-1 1562 1389 65.75% 20.54% 13.72% -13.3 15
1964-06-06 @ B 1913 W 1-0 1389 1562 13.72% 20.54% 65.75% +13.3 10
1964-06-06 B 1909 D 2-2 1464 1538 37.66% 21.67% 40.67% +0.1 10
1964-06-06 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1538 1464 40.67% 21.67% 37.66% -0.1 17
1964-06-07 Bronshoj W 7-1 1494 1385 60.26% 21.11% 18.63% +19.4 13
1964-06-07 @ Aarhus GF L 1-7 1385 1494 18.63% 21.11% 60.26% -19.4 5
1964-06-07 Vejle BK L 0-2 1448 1467 45.37% 21.68% 32.95% -17.7 7
1964-06-07 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1467 1448 32.95% 21.68% 45.37% +17.7 10
1964-06-07 B.93 D 2-2 1587 1386 67.80% 20.24% 11.96% -2.1 13
1964-06-07 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1386 1587 11.96% 20.24% 67.80% +2.1 8
1964-08-18 B 1913 W 4-3 1485 1548 39.24% 21.68% 39.08% +7.3 12
1964-08-18 @ Vejle BK L 3-4 1548 1485 39.08% 21.68% 39.24% -7.3 15
1964-08-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1430 1555 30.92% 21.52% 47.56% -6.5 7
1964-08-20 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1555 1430 47.56% 21.52% 30.92% +6.5 16
1964-08-22 Frem L 0-2 1464 1402 55.36% 21.41% 23.23% -21.2 10
1964-08-22 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1402 1464 23.23% 21.41% 55.36% +21.2 12
1964-08-23 Esbjerg L 1-3 1538 1584 41.70% 21.69% 36.61% -14.3 17
1964-08-23 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1584 1538 36.61% 21.69% 41.70% +14.3 15
1964-08-23 B 1901 W 4-2 1388 1491 33.75% 21.60% 44.65% +13.5 10
1964-08-23 @ B.93 L 2-4 1491 1388 44.65% 21.60% 33.75% -13.5 10
1964-08-23 B 1913 L 1-2 1365 1541 24.84% 21.24% 53.92% -5.4 5
1964-08-23 @ Bronshoj W 2-1 1541 1365 53.92% 21.24% 24.84% +5.4 17
1964-08-23 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1492 1513 45.13% 21.68% 33.19% +10.7 14
1964-08-23 @ Vejle BK L 2-4 1513 1492 33.19% 21.68% 45.13% -10.7 13
1964-08-27 B 1909 W 3-1 1547 1524 50.76% 21.58% 27.65% +10.3 19
1964-08-27 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1524 1547 27.65% 21.58% 50.76% -10.3 17
1964-08-29 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1423 1561 29.26% 21.46% 49.28% +0.7 13
1964-08-29 @ Frem D 2-2 1561 1423 49.28% 21.46% 29.26% -0.7 17
1964-08-30 Esbjerg W 1-0 1503 1599 34.68% 21.62% 43.70% +9.1 15
1964-08-30 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1599 1503 43.70% 21.62% 34.68% -9.1 15
1964-08-30 B.93 L 2-5 1360 1402 42.29% 21.69% 36.01% -17.7 5
1964-08-30 @ Bronshoj W 5-2 1402 1360 36.01% 21.69% 42.29% +17.7 12
1964-08-30 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1443 1424 50.36% 21.59% 28.05% -9.7 10
1964-08-30 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1424 1443 28.05% 21.59% 50.36% +9.7 9
1964-08-30 B 1901 L 1-4 1503 1478 51.12% 21.57% 27.31% -24.1 14
1964-08-30 @ Vejle BK W 4-1 1478 1503 27.31% 21.57% 51.12% +24.1 12
1964-09-09 B 1903 W 3-1 1419 1433 46.11% 21.67% 32.21% +11.7 14
1964-09-09 @ B.93 L 1-3 1433 1419 32.21% 21.67% 46.11% -11.7 10
1964-09-10 Vejle BK W 2-0 1514 1479 52.26% 21.54% 26.20% +11.4 19
1964-09-10 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1479 1514 26.20% 21.54% 52.26% -11.4 14
1964-09-12 Bronshoj W 2-1 1561 1342 69.04% 20.02% 10.93% +2.6 19
1964-09-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1342 1561 10.93% 20.02% 69.04% -2.6 5
1964-09-13 Aarhus GF L 0-2 1502 1512 46.59% 21.67% 31.74% -18.2 12
1964-09-13 @ B 1901 W 2-0 1512 1502 31.74% 21.67% 46.59% +18.2 17
1964-09-13 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1431 1433 47.62% 21.65% 30.73% -0.6 15
1964-09-13 @ B.93 D 2-2 1433 1431 30.73% 21.65% 47.62% +0.6 10
1964-09-13 B 1903 W 5-2 1590 1422 65.39% 20.58% 14.03% +6.9 17
1964-09-13 @ Esbjerg L 2-5 1422 1590 14.03% 20.58% 65.39% -7.0 10
1964-09-13 B 1913 D 1-1 1424 1557 29.90% 21.48% 48.62% +0.8 14
1964-09-13 @ Frem D 1-1 1557 1424 48.62% 21.48% 29.90% -0.9 20
1964-09-17 B 1909 W 5-1 1530 1525 48.55% 21.64% 29.82% +20.0 19
1964-09-17 @ Aarhus GF L 1-5 1525 1530 29.82% 21.64% 48.55% -20.0 19
1964-09-20 Frem W 1-0 1434 1425 49.08% 21.62% 29.30% +6.6 12
1964-09-20 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1425 1434 29.30% 21.62% 49.08% -6.6 14
1964-09-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1556 1563 46.98% 21.66% 31.36% -15.8 20
1964-09-20 @ B 1913 W 3-1 1563 1556 31.36% 21.66% 46.98% +15.8 21
1964-09-20 B 1901 W 5-1 1597 1484 60.62% 21.08% 18.30% +13.2 19
1964-09-20 @ Esbjerg L 1-5 1484 1597 18.30% 21.08% 60.62% -13.2 12
1964-09-20 Bronshoj W 3-2 1415 1340 56.79% 21.34% 21.87% +4.6 12
1964-09-20 @ B 1903 L 2-3 1340 1415 21.87% 21.34% 56.79% -4.6 5
1964-09-20 B.93 W 3-0 1468 1431 52.51% 21.53% 25.96% +16.4 16
1964-09-20 @ Vejle BK L 0-3 1431 1468 25.96% 21.53% 52.51% -16.4 15
1964-09-26 B 1909 L 1-4 1441 1505 39.08% 21.68% 39.24% -19.2 12
1964-09-26 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1505 1441 39.24% 21.68% 39.08% +19.2 21
1964-09-27 Frem W 3-1 1470 1418 54.25% 21.46% 24.28% +9.2 14
1964-09-27 @ B 1901 L 1-3 1418 1470 24.28% 21.46% 54.25% -9.2 14
1964-09-27 Aarhus GF L 1-3 1540 1550 46.64% 21.67% 31.69% -15.7 20
1964-09-27 @ B 1913 W 3-1 1550 1540 31.69% 21.67% 46.64% +15.7 21
1964-09-27 Vejle BK D 0-0 1335 1484 27.92% 21.40% 50.68% +1.2 6
1964-09-27 @ Bronshoj D 0-0 1484 1335 50.68% 21.40% 27.92% -1.2 17
1964-09-27 Esbjerg W 5-2 1579 1610 43.83% 21.69% 34.48% +15.1 23
1964-09-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-5 1610 1579 34.48% 21.69% 43.83% -15.1 19
1964-10-03 B.93 L 0-3 1409 1414 47.27% 21.66% 31.07% -26.7 14
1964-10-03 @ Frem W 3-0 1414 1409 31.07% 21.66% 47.27% +26.7 17
1964-10-04 Bronshoj W 5-1 1524 1336 66.92% 20.37% 12.70% +9.4 23
1964-10-04 @ B 1909 L 1-5 1336 1524 12.70% 20.37% 66.92% -9.4 6
1964-10-04 B 1913 W 3-2 1595 1524 56.27% 21.37% 22.36% +4.7 21
1964-10-04 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1524 1595 22.36% 21.37% 56.27% -4.7 20
1964-10-04 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1419 1566 28.22% 21.42% 50.37% +15.0 14
1964-10-04 @ B 1903 L 2-4 1566 1419 50.37% 21.42% 28.22% -15.0 21
1964-10-04 B 1901 W 5-3 1594 1480 60.76% 21.07% 18.17% +6.1 25
1964-10-04 @ KB Copenhagen L 3-5 1480 1594 18.17% 21.07% 60.76% -6.1 14
1964-10-04 AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1483 1421 55.31% 21.42% 23.28% +10.3 19
1964-10-04 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1421 1483 23.28% 21.42% 55.31% -10.3 12
1964-10-17 Vejle BK L 2-3 1434 1493 39.90% 21.69% 38.41% -7.6 14
1964-10-17 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1493 1434 38.41% 21.69% 39.90% +7.6 21
1964-10-18 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1551 1600 41.21% 21.69% 37.10% +7.1 23
1964-10-18 @ Aarhus GF L 2-3 1600 1551 37.10% 21.69% 41.21% -7.2 25
1964-10-18 B 1901 D 3-3 1520 1474 53.59% 21.49% 24.92% -0.8 21
1964-10-18 @ B 1913 D 3-3 1474 1520 24.92% 21.49% 53.59% +0.8 15
1964-10-18 B 1909 D 1-1 1441 1534 35.10% 21.63% 43.27% +0.4 18
1964-10-18 @ B.93 D 1-1 1534 1441 43.27% 21.63% 35.10% -0.4 24
1964-10-18 AB Gladsaxe L 0-6 1327 1411 36.27% 21.65% 42.08% -41.1 6
1964-10-18 @ Bronshoj W 6-0 1411 1327 42.08% 21.65% 36.27% +41.1 14
1964-10-18 Frem D 2-2 1599 1382 68.94% 20.04% 11.02% -2.2 22
1964-10-18 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1382 1599 11.02% 20.04% 68.94% +2.1 15
1964-10-24 B.93 W 5-1 1593 1441 64.07% 20.74% 15.19% +11.1 27
1964-10-24 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1441 1593 15.19% 20.74% 64.07% -11.1 18
1964-10-25 Esbjerg L 0-3 1452 1597 28.38% 21.42% 50.19% -17.6 14
1964-10-25 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1597 1452 50.19% 21.42% 28.38% +17.6 24
1964-10-25 Bronshoj D 1-1 1474 1286 66.96% 20.37% 12.67% -2.7 16
1964-10-25 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1286 1474 12.67% 20.37% 66.96% +2.7 7
1964-10-25 B 1903 W 6-1 1533 1427 60.01% 21.13% 18.86% +16.6 26
1964-10-25 @ B 1909 L 1-6 1427 1533 18.86% 21.13% 60.01% -16.6 14
1964-10-25 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1385 1558 25.13% 21.26% 53.61% -5.5 15
1964-10-25 @ Frem W 2-1 1558 1385 53.61% 21.26% 25.13% +5.5 25
1964-11-01 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1563 1435 62.06% 20.95% 16.98% -1.6 26
1964-11-01 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1435 1563 16.98% 20.95% 62.06% +1.6 15
1964-11-01 B 1909 D 2-2 1472 1550 37.12% 21.66% 41.22% +0.1 17
1964-11-01 @ B 1901 D 2-2 1550 1472 41.22% 21.66% 37.12% -0.1 27
1964-11-01 B.93 W 5-3 1519 1430 58.24% 21.25% 20.51% +6.8 23
1964-11-01 @ B 1913 L 3-5 1430 1519 20.51% 21.25% 58.24% -6.8 18
1964-11-01 Vejle BK L 1-2 1615 1501 60.73% 21.07% 18.20% -11.6 24
1964-11-01 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1501 1615 18.20% 21.07% 60.73% +11.6 23
1964-11-01 Bronshoj D 1-1 1379 1288 58.44% 21.24% 20.32% -1.8 16
1964-11-01 @ Frem D 1-1 1288 1379 20.32% 21.24% 58.44% +1.8 8
1964-11-01 B 1913 W 5-1 1604 1526 57.16% 21.32% 21.52% +15.2 29
1964-11-01 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1526 1604 21.52% 21.32% 57.16% -15.2 23
1964-11-07 B 1901 L 2-3 1436 1472 43.16% 21.69% 35.15% -8.1 15
1964-11-07 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1472 1436 35.15% 21.69% 43.16% +8.1 19
1964-11-08 Frem W 3-1 1550 1377 65.73% 20.54% 13.73% +5.6 29
1964-11-08 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1377 1550 13.73% 20.54% 65.73% -5.6 16
1964-11-08 Esbjerg L 2-3 1423 1603 24.39% 21.21% 54.40% -5.1 18
1964-11-08 @ B.93 W 3-2 1603 1423 54.40% 21.21% 24.39% +5.0 26
1964-11-08 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1290 1562 15.95% 20.39% 63.66% -3.9 8
1964-11-08 @ Bronshoj W 1-0 1562 1290 63.66% 20.39% 15.95% +3.9 28
1964-11-08 B 1913 W 2-0 1410 1510 34.09% 21.61% 44.30% +17.4 16
1964-11-08 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1510 1410 44.30% 21.61% 34.09% -17.4 23
1964-11-08 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1512 1619 33.18% 21.59% 45.24% +17.7 25
1964-11-08 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1619 1512 45.24% 21.59% 33.18% -17.7 29
1964-11-15 B.93 W 1-0 1566 1418 63.69% 20.79% 15.53% +3.8 30
1964-11-15 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1418 1566 15.53% 20.79% 63.69% -3.8 18
1964-11-15 B 1903 L 1-3 1480 1427 54.30% 21.46% 24.24% -18.0 19
1964-11-15 @ B 1901 W 3-1 1427 1480 24.24% 21.46% 54.30% +18.0 18
1964-11-15 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1493 1428 55.71% 21.40% 22.90% -10.7 23
1964-11-15 @ B 1913 W 2-1 1428 1493 22.90% 21.40% 55.71% +10.7 17
1964-11-15 Bronshoj W 5-1 1608 1286 74.92% 18.59% 6.49% +4.9 28
1964-11-15 @ Esbjerg L 1-5 1286 1608 6.49% 18.59% 74.92% -4.9 8
1964-11-15 Vejle BK W 4-0 1372 1530 26.85% 21.35% 51.80% +37.7 18
1964-11-15 @ Frem L 0-4 1530 1372 51.80% 21.35% 26.85% -37.7 25
1964-11-15 B 1909 L 0-1 1602 1555 53.60% 21.49% 24.91% -10.9 29
1964-11-15 @ KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1555 1602 24.91% 21.49% 53.60% +10.9 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-06-06 13.72% Frem 1389 1 @ B 1913 1562 0
2 1964-11-01 18.20% Vejle BK 1501 2 @ Esbjerg 1615 1
3 1964-11-15 22.90% AB Gladsaxe 1428 2 @ B 1913 1493 1
4 1964-08-22 23.23% Frem 1402 2 @ B 1903 1464 0
5 1964-11-15 24.24% B 1903 1427 3 @ B 1901 1480 1
6 1964-11-15 24.91% B 1909 1555 1 @ KB Copenhagen 1602 0
7 1964-04-19 25.20% Frem 1397 3 @ Bronshoj 1441 1
8 1964-05-24 25.35% B 1909 1544 1 @ Esbjerg 1586 0
9 1964-11-15 26.85% @ Frem 1372 4 Vejle BK 1530 0
10 1964-08-30 27.31% B 1901 1478 4 @ Vejle BK 1503 1
11 1964-08-30 28.05% AB Gladsaxe 1424 2 @ B 1903 1443 1
12 1964-03-29 28.18% Bronshoj 1466 2 @ Vejle BK 1484 1
13 1964-10-04 28.22% @ B 1903 1419 4 Aarhus GF 1566 2
14 1964-05-31 28.87% @ B.93 1369 3 Aarhus GF 1511 1
15 1964-05-28 29.21% B 1913 1545 3 @ B 1909 1555 1
16 1964-04-18 29.61% B 1903 1467 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1473 1
17 1964-04-12 29.88% @ Frem 1378 2 B 1909 1511 0
18 1964-04-04 30.42% B 1913 1507 1 @ Aarhus GF 1507 0
19 1964-10-03 31.07% B.93 1414 3 @ Frem 1409 0
20 1964-04-11 31.29% KB Copenhagen 1488 4 @ B 1903 1481 2
21 1964-09-20 31.36% KB Copenhagen 1563 3 @ B 1913 1556 1
22 1964-09-27 31.69% Aarhus GF 1550 3 @ B 1913 1540 1
23 1964-09-13 31.74% Aarhus GF 1512 2 @ B 1901 1502 0
24 1964-04-12 32.35% Aarhus GF 1498 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1483 0
25 1964-06-07 32.95% Vejle BK 1467 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1448 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-10-18 41.12 AB Gladsaxe 6 1411 42.08% @ Bronshoj 0 1327 36.27% 21.65%
2 1964-11-15 37.73 @ Frem 4 1372 26.85% Vejle BK 0 1530 51.80% 21.35%
3 1964-04-26 27.74 @ Aarhus GF 5 1513 50.85% B 1903 0 1490 27.57% 21.58%
4 1964-05-03 27.74 @ KB Copenhagen 4 1501 42.62% Aarhus GF 0 1541 35.68% 21.69%
5 1964-10-03 26.68 B.93 3 1414 31.07% @ Frem 0 1409 47.27% 21.66%
6 1964-08-30 24.12 B 1901 4 1478 27.31% @ Vejle BK 1 1503 51.12% 21.57%
7 1964-05-30 23.77 KB Copenhagen 4 1544 49.00% @ Bronshoj 0 1408 29.53% 21.47%
8 1964-04-18 23.12 B 1903 4 1467 29.61% @ AB Gladsaxe 1 1473 48.76% 21.63%
9 1964-08-22 21.19 Frem 2 1402 23.23% @ B 1903 0 1464 55.36% 21.41%
10 1964-09-17 20.01 @ Aarhus GF 5 1530 48.55% B 1909 1 1525 29.82% 21.64%
11 1964-04-26 19.57 @ Bronshoj 4 1423 38.38% B 1901 1 1493 39.94% 21.67%
12 1964-04-05 19.50 @ AB Gladsaxe 3 1463 46.26% Bronshoj 0 1476 32.07% 21.67%
13 1964-06-07 19.42 @ Aarhus GF 7 1494 60.26% Bronshoj 1 1385 18.63% 21.11%
14 1964-09-26 19.23 B 1909 4 1505 39.24% @ AB Gladsaxe 1 1441 39.08% 21.68%
15 1964-04-12 18.81 @ Frem 2 1378 29.88% B 1909 0 1511 48.64% 21.48%
16 1964-09-13 18.15 Aarhus GF 2 1512 31.74% @ B 1901 0 1502 46.59% 21.67%
17 1964-11-15 18.02 B 1903 3 1427 24.24% @ B 1901 1 1480 54.30% 21.46%
18 1964-04-05 17.99 @ B 1909 6 1493 46.31% KB Copenhagen 2 1506 32.02% 21.67%
19 1964-05-17 17.78 KB Copenhagen 3 1528 49.83% @ B.93 0 1385 28.73% 21.44%
20 1964-06-07 17.74 Vejle BK 2 1467 32.95% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1448 45.37% 21.68%
21 1964-08-30 17.74 B.93 5 1402 36.01% @ Bronshoj 2 1360 42.29% 21.69%
22 1964-04-19 17.72 Frem 3 1397 25.20% @ Bronshoj 1 1441 53.30% 21.50%
23 1964-05-17 17.70 AB Gladsaxe 2 1445 33.08% @ Frem 0 1424 45.24% 21.68%
24 1964-11-08 17.67 @ Vejle BK 2 1512 33.18% KB Copenhagen 0 1619 45.24% 21.59%
25 1964-10-25 17.61 Esbjerg 3 1597 50.19% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1452 28.38% 21.42%