1963 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Esbjerg

33 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1962

Relegated

Koge BK

12 pts

Aalborg · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

3.14 points above expected

33 points · 29.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Koge BK

6.08 points below expected

12 points · 18.08 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Esbjerg Champion 22 15 3 4 33 56 28 +28 29.86 +3.14
2 B 1913 22 11 3 8 25 48 44 +4 25.17 -0.17
3 B 1903 22 9 7 6 25 45 43 +2 21.88 +3.12
4 B 1909 22 9 5 8 23 57 48 +9 20.30 +2.70
5 Aarhus GF 22 10 3 9 23 45 40 +5 24.19 -1.19
6 Vejle BK 22 9 5 8 23 39 43 -4 21.92 +1.08
7 KB Copenhagen 22 9 4 9 22 49 49 0 23.31 -1.31
8 B 1901 22 8 5 9 21 37 33 +4 22.03 -1.03
9 AB Gladsaxe 22 6 8 8 20 49 48 +1 19.69 +0.31
10 Bronshoj 22 5 9 8 19 38 44 -6 19.21 -0.21
11 Aalborg Relegated 22 7 4 11 18 30 46 -16 18.38 -0.38
12 Koge BK Relegated 22 3 6 13 12 33 60 -27 18.08 -6.08

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Esbjerg 1705 33 29.86 +3.14 84.0% 14 24 27 30 32 36 41
B 1913 1586 25 25.17 -0.17 53.3% 10 19 23 25 28 31 41
Aarhus GF 1578 23 24.19 -1.19 42.8% 11 18 22 24 27 30 39
KB Copenhagen 1567 22 23.31 -1.31 41.9% 9 17 21 23 26 30 36
B 1903 1550 25 21.88 +3.12 82.6% 8 15 19 22 24 28 39
B 1901 1547 21 22.03 -1.03 44.4% 5 16 19 22 25 28 36
Vejle BK 1542 23 21.92 +1.08 65.6% 7 16 19 22 24 28 36
B 1909 1542 23 20.30 +2.70 79.7% 7 14 18 20 23 27 33
AB Gladsaxe 1508 20 19.69 +0.31 58.2% 7 13 17 20 22 26 34
Bronshoj 1504 19 19.21 -0.21 53.0% 5 13 17 19 22 26 38
Aalborg 1471 18 18.38 -0.38 51.7% 4 12 16 18 21 25 32
Koge BK 1464 12 18.08 -6.08 7.2% 4 12 15 18 21 25 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL AG B1 B1 B1 B1 BRO ESB KC KB VB
AB Gladsaxe
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
2.21
0-2-0
2.43
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.08
1-1-0
2.83
0-1-1
1.50
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-2
2.53
Aalborg
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.95
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
1.93
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.30
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.33
Aarhus GF
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-2
3.06
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
3.39
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.08
B 1901
0-2-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
2.44
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
1.69
2-0-0
2.53
0-1-1
3.41
1-0-1
2.63
B 1903
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.46
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
1.68
0-0-2
2.62
1-1-0
3.33
0-2-0
2.66
B 1909
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.18
0-2-0
3.00
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
2.33
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.50
B 1913
1-0-1
3.44
0-1-1
3.60
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
3.11
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
3.49
0-0-2
2.20
2-0-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.18
Bronshoj
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.13
0-0-2
2.44
0-1-1
2.41
0-2-0
2.51
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
1.45
0-2-0
2.23
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.38
Esbjerg
1-1-0
4.06
1-0-1
4.28
0-1-1
3.47
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.87
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
4.11
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.97
2-0-0
3.81
KB Copenhagen
1-1-0
3.20
2-0-0
3.31
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.98
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
3.18
0-0-2
2.56
0-2-0
3.29
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
2.95
Koge BK
0-1-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
1.99
1-1-0
2.11
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.46
1-0-1
1.76
0-1-1
2.48
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
2.33
Vejle BK
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.87
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.33
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
3.18

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.52 +4.2
Allowed 0.61 -4.8
Differential 0.87 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%2.65%4.92%4.17%0.38%1.14%14.77%
12.65%9.85%4.92%4.55%2.65%1.52%26.14%
24.92%4.92%9.09%4.55%1.14%2.27%26.89%
34.17%4.55%4.55%2.27%1.89%1.14%18.56%
40.38%2.65%1.14%1.89%0.76%6.82%
5+1.14%1.52%2.27%1.14%0.76%6.82%
Total14.77%26.14%26.89%18.56%6.82%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.99 1.99 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 2.09
CV 0.73 0.73
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
218.18%9.09%27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%13.64%40.91%22.73%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.18 +0.05
SD 1.23 1.14 1.62
CV 0.55 0.52
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
4
5+
Total13.64%36.36%18.18%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.09 -0.73
SD 1.18 1.72 2.07
CV 0.86 0.82
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total13.64%36.36%13.64%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.82 +0.23
SD 1.50 1.26 2.25
CV 0.73 0.69
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
113.64%9.09%13.64%36.36%
24.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total27.27%18.18%31.82%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.50 +0.18
SD 1.73 1.14 2.08
CV 1.03 0.76
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%36.36%
24.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total18.18%27.27%22.73%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.95 +0.09
SD 1.17 1.56 1.93
CV 0.57 0.80
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
118.18%4.55%22.73%
24.55%13.64%18.18%
39.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total4.55%13.64%50.00%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.59 2.18 +0.41
SD 1.76 0.96 1.84
CV 0.68 0.44
Max 7 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
24.55%13.64%4.55%13.64%4.55%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 2.00 +0.18
SD 1.33 1.15 1.87
CV 0.61 0.58
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
29.09%18.18%4.55%9.09%40.91%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%22.73%27.27%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.00 -0.27
SD 1.39 1.60 1.86
CV 0.80 0.80
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
213.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
313.64%9.09%9.09%31.82%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total31.82%31.82%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.27 +1.27
SD 1.41 1.28 1.78
CV 0.55 1.01
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
213.64%9.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%45.45%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total13.64%22.73%13.64%36.36%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.23 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.48 2.02
CV 0.59 0.66
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
118.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total4.55%27.27%27.27%13.64%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.73 -1.23
SD 1.47 1.96 2.33
CV 0.98 0.72
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
118.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.95 -0.18
SD 1.54 1.65 2.72
CV 0.87 0.84
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 33 29.86 +3.14
2 B 1903 25 21.88 +3.12
3 B 1909 23 20.30 +2.70
4 Vejle BK 23 21.92 +1.08
5 AB Gladsaxe 20 19.69 +0.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Koge BK 12 18.08 -6.08
2 KB Copenhagen 22 23.31 -1.31
3 Aarhus GF 23 24.19 -1.19
4 B 1901 21 22.03 -1.03
5 Aalborg 18 18.38 -0.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1913 5 Apr 7 – May 5 1 in 54
2 Aalborg 2 Oct 27 – Nov 10 1 in 36
3 Esbjerg 5 Apr 21 – May 26 1 in 24
4 B 1909 3 Sep 22 – Oct 13 1 in 18
5 B 1903 3 Mar 31 – Apr 15 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 9 Mar 31 – Jun 9 1 in 2,455
2 B 1913 3 Oct 20 – Nov 17 1 in 105
3 KB Copenhagen 4 Sep 22 – Oct 20 1 in 28
4 Esbjerg 2 Jun 16 – Aug 18 1 in 23
5 Aalborg 4 Apr 11 – Apr 28 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 7 Sep 1 – Oct 20 1 in 31
2 Bronshoj 5 Oct 13 – Nov 17 1 in 26
3 KB Copenhagen 9 May 30 – Sep 8 1 in 21
4 B 1913 9 Apr 7 – Jun 9 1 in 16
5 Koge BK 4 Sep 22 – Oct 20 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 10 Mar 31 – Jun 13 1 in 46
2 Bronshoj 8 Sep 1 – Nov 10 1 in 29
3 Aarhus GF 5 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 20
4 AB Gladsaxe 7 Apr 28 – Jun 16 1 in 16
5 Esbjerg 3 Jun 9 – Aug 18 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Esbjerg65.05%17.66%7.82%4.25%2.11%1.46%0.82%0.39%0.22%0.11%0.09%0.02%
B 191311.69%21.45%16.96%12.78%10.52%8.00%6.41%4.38%3.38%2.47%1.25%0.71%
B 19032.62%7.20%9.61%10.60%10.78%11.42%10.90%9.57%8.53%7.70%6.50%4.57%
B 19091.29%4.28%5.94%7.74%9.20%9.99%10.76%10.64%11.27%10.70%10.08%8.11%
Aarhus GF7.83%16.24%16.18%13.63%11.58%9.40%7.58%6.26%4.52%3.57%2.11%1.10%
Vejle BK2.45%6.39%9.12%10.08%10.96%10.94%10.98%10.67%9.53%7.87%6.47%4.54%
KB Copenhagen5.01%12.16%13.01%12.49%11.60%10.72%9.33%7.58%6.76%5.44%3.65%2.25%
B 19012.41%7.89%10.01%11.33%11.61%11.20%10.04%10.02%8.31%7.43%6.13%3.62%
AB Gladsaxe0.60%2.73%4.29%6.56%6.88%8.85%9.82%11.43%12.21%12.23%12.87%11.53%
Bronshoj0.55%1.87%3.15%4.53%6.67%7.06%9.27%10.83%12.26%13.78%15.14%14.89%
Aalborg0.23%1.20%1.99%2.99%4.45%5.85%7.53%9.45%11.79%14.51%17.97%22.04%
Koge BK0.27%0.93%1.92%3.02%3.64%5.11%6.56%8.78%11.22%14.19%17.74%26.62%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.94%
Clear Edge
47.73%23.48%28.79%
Elo Value
Home Edge
159 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
066.61400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.52 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Esbjerg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.07 * Some Luck: 3.07 to 4.6 * Lucky: 4.6 to 6.13 * Wild Swing: 6.13 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.88 * Close: 1.88 to 2.82 * Off: 2.82 to 3.75 * Way Off: 3.75 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.16 * A Surprise: 1.16 to 1.85 * Several Surprises: 1.85 to 2.54 * Many Surprises: 2.54 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.41 points
As Expected
03.8310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.355
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
83.98%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.22%
Koge BK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.06
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.40
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.75
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.22
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Esbjerg 99.89% 0.11%
B 1913 98.04% 1.96%
Aarhus GF 96.79% 3.21%
KB Copenhagen 94.10% 5.90%
B 1901 90.25% 9.75%
Vejle BK 88.99% 11.01%
B 1903 88.93% 11.07%
B 1909 81.81% 18.19%
AB Gladsaxe 75.60% 24.40%
Bronshoj 69.97% 30.03%
Aalborg 59.99% 40.01%
Koge BK 55.64% 44.36%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1963-03-24 B 1913 W 3-0 1668 1592 59.20% 23.32% 17.49% +5.7 2
1963-03-24 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1592 1668 17.49% 23.32% 59.20% -5.7 0
1963-03-31 B 1909 W 4-3 1536 1512 53.60% 24.25% 22.15% +2.3 2
1963-03-31 @ B 1903 L 3-4 1512 1536 22.15% 24.25% 53.60% -2.3 0
1963-03-31 Esbjerg L 0-3 1526 1674 31.18% 24.38% 44.45% -9.3 0
1963-03-31 @ Koge BK W 3-0 1674 1526 44.45% 24.38% 31.18% +9.3 4
1963-04-07 B 1903 L 1-3 1581 1539 55.65% 23.96% 20.39% -8.9 0
1963-04-07 @ Aarhus GF W 3-1 1539 1581 20.39% 23.96% 55.65% +8.9 4
1963-04-07 B 1913 L 1-2 1492 1586 38.38% 24.84% 36.78% -3.8 0
1963-04-07 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1586 1492 36.78% 24.84% 38.38% +3.8 2
1963-04-07 Aalborg L 1-2 1510 1499 52.06% 24.42% 23.52% -4.9 0
1963-04-07 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1499 1510 23.52% 24.42% 52.06% +4.8 2
1963-04-07 Bronshoj W 2-0 1683 1498 68.89% 20.41% 10.69% +2.4 6
1963-04-07 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1498 1683 10.69% 20.41% 68.89% -2.4 0
1963-04-07 B 1901 L 1-3 1573 1535 55.19% 24.03% 20.78% -8.9 0
1963-04-07 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1535 1573 20.78% 24.03% 55.19% +8.9 2
1963-04-07 Koge BK W 6-0 1550 1517 54.63% 24.11% 21.26% +13.1 2
1963-04-07 @ Vejle BK L 0-6 1517 1550 21.26% 24.11% 54.63% -13.1 0
1963-04-11 Vejle BK L 1-3 1504 1563 43.18% 24.90% 31.92% -7.2 2
1963-04-11 @ Aalborg W 3-1 1563 1504 31.92% 24.90% 43.18% +7.2 4
1963-04-11 B 1901 W 3-0 1572 1544 54.08% 24.19% 21.74% +7.0 2
1963-04-11 @ Aarhus GF L 0-3 1544 1572 21.74% 24.19% 54.08% -7.0 2
1963-04-14 KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1496 1565 42.00% 24.90% 33.09% -9.9 2
1963-04-14 @ Aalborg W 4-1 1565 1496 33.09% 24.90% 42.00% +9.9 2
1963-04-14 Vejle BK W 6-0 1537 1570 46.60% 24.81% 28.59% +16.7 4
1963-04-14 @ B 1901 L 0-6 1570 1537 28.59% 24.81% 46.60% -16.7 4
1963-04-15 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1686 1579 62.10% 22.63% 15.27% -0.8 7
1963-04-15 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1579 1686 15.27% 22.63% 62.10% +0.8 3
1963-04-15 Bronshoj W 3-0 1547 1496 56.62% 23.81% 19.58% +6.4 6
1963-04-15 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1496 1547 19.58% 23.81% 56.62% -6.3 0
1963-04-15 AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1504 1488 52.62% 24.36% 23.02% -14.2 0
1963-04-15 @ Koge BK W 3-0 1488 1504 23.02% 24.36% 52.62% +14.2 2
1963-04-16 B 1909 W 2-1 1590 1505 60.03% 23.14% 16.84% +1.9 4
1963-04-16 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1505 1590 16.84% 23.14% 60.03% -1.9 0
1963-04-21 Aalborg W 2-0 1580 1487 60.88% 22.94% 16.18% +3.7 5
1963-04-21 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1487 1580 16.18% 22.94% 60.88% -3.7 2
1963-04-21 B 1901 D 2-2 1502 1554 44.24% 24.88% 30.88% -0.2 3
1963-04-21 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1554 1502 30.88% 24.88% 44.24% +0.2 5
1963-04-21 Esbjerg L 1-5 1575 1685 36.15% 24.75% 39.10% -11.4 2
1963-04-21 @ KB Copenhagen W 5-1 1685 1575 39.10% 24.75% 36.15% +11.4 9
1963-04-21 B 1909 L 1-4 1554 1503 56.51% 23.82% 19.67% -12.8 4
1963-04-21 @ Vejle BK W 4-1 1503 1554 19.67% 23.82% 56.51% +12.8 2
1963-04-25 B 1903 W 3-0 1502 1554 44.18% 24.89% 30.94% +9.3 5
1963-04-25 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1554 1502 30.94% 24.89% 44.18% -9.3 6
1963-04-27 B 1913 L 1-2 1554 1592 46.04% 24.84% 29.12% -4.4 5
1963-04-27 @ B 1901 W 2-1 1592 1554 29.12% 24.84% 46.04% +4.4 6
1963-04-28 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1516 1511 51.31% 24.50% 24.19% -0.4 3
1963-04-28 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1511 1516 24.19% 24.50% 51.31% +0.4 6
1963-04-28 Vejle BK L 2-3 1489 1541 44.27% 24.88% 30.85% -4.0 0
1963-04-28 @ Bronshoj W 3-2 1541 1489 30.85% 24.88% 44.27% +4.0 6
1963-04-28 Aalborg W 3-1 1696 1483 71.08% 19.51% 9.41% +1.8 11
1963-04-28 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1483 1696 9.41% 19.51% 71.08% -1.8 2
1963-04-28 B 1903 W 2-1 1563 1544 52.95% 24.32% 22.72% +2.5 4
1963-04-28 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1544 1563 22.72% 24.32% 52.95% -2.5 6
1963-05-01 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1596 1584 52.20% 24.41% 23.39% +4.4 8
1963-05-01 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1584 1596 23.39% 24.41% 52.20% -4.4 5
1963-05-05 Koge BK W 3-1 1481 1489 49.76% 24.63% 25.61% +4.8 4
1963-05-05 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1489 1481 25.61% 24.63% 49.76% -4.8 0
1963-05-05 B 1909 W 3-0 1579 1515 57.92% 23.57% 18.51% +6.0 7
1963-05-05 @ Aarhus GF L 0-3 1515 1579 18.51% 23.57% 57.92% -6.0 3
1963-05-05 Bronshoj D 4-4 1512 1485 53.81% 24.22% 21.97% -0.4 7
1963-05-05 @ AB Gladsaxe D 4-4 1485 1512 21.97% 24.22% 53.81% +0.4 1
1963-05-05 B 1903 D 2-2 1549 1542 51.64% 24.47% 23.90% -0.5 6
1963-05-05 @ B 1901 D 2-2 1542 1549 23.90% 24.47% 51.64% +0.5 7
1963-05-05 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1600 1566 54.77% 24.09% 21.14% +2.2 10
1963-05-05 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1566 1600 21.14% 24.09% 54.77% -2.2 4
1963-05-05 Esbjerg L 0-2 1545 1698 30.52% 24.31% 45.17% -6.3 6
1963-05-05 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1698 1545 45.17% 24.31% 30.52% +6.3 13
1963-05-10 Vejle BK D 1-1 1603 1538 57.93% 23.57% 18.50% -0.9 11
1963-05-10 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1538 1603 18.50% 23.57% 57.93% +0.9 7
1963-05-12 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1486 1585 37.64% 24.82% 37.54% +3.9 3
1963-05-12 @ Bronshoj L 0-1 1585 1486 37.54% 24.82% 37.64% -3.9 7
1963-05-12 B 1901 W 2-0 1704 1549 66.47% 21.31% 12.22% +2.8 15
1963-05-12 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1549 1704 12.22% 21.31% 66.47% -2.8 6
1963-05-12 Aalborg W 1-0 1542 1486 57.15% 23.71% 19.14% +2.3 9
1963-05-12 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1486 1542 19.14% 23.71% 57.15% -2.3 4
1963-05-12 B 1909 L 1-2 1485 1509 47.71% 24.76% 27.53% -4.5 0
1963-05-12 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1509 1485 27.53% 24.76% 47.71% +4.5 5
1963-05-21 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1539 1511 54.04% 24.19% 21.77% +2.4 9
1963-05-21 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1511 1539 21.77% 24.19% 54.04% -2.4 7
1963-05-22 Bronshoj D 2-2 1514 1490 53.57% 24.25% 22.18% -0.5 6
1963-05-22 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1490 1514 22.18% 24.25% 53.57% +0.5 4
1963-05-23 Aalborg W 1-0 1546 1484 57.78% 23.60% 18.62% +2.2 8
1963-05-23 @ B 1901 L 0-1 1484 1546 18.62% 23.60% 57.78% -2.2 4
1963-05-26 B 1913 D 1-1 1481 1602 34.77% 24.67% 40.56% +0.1 5
1963-05-26 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1602 1481 40.56% 24.67% 34.77% -0.1 12
1963-05-26 AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1581 1509 58.80% 23.40% 17.80% +1.9 9
1963-05-26 @ Aarhus GF L 2-3 1509 1581 17.80% 23.40% 58.80% -1.9 7
1963-05-26 Bronshoj W 6-2 1548 1490 57.30% 23.69% 19.01% +5.7 10
1963-05-26 @ B 1901 L 2-6 1490 1548 19.01% 23.69% 57.30% -5.7 4
1963-05-26 Esbjerg L 1-2 1513 1707 25.81% 23.64% 50.55% -2.7 6
1963-05-26 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1707 1513 50.55% 23.64% 25.81% +2.7 17
1963-05-26 Koge BK W 4-2 1545 1480 57.99% 23.56% 18.45% +3.2 11
1963-05-26 @ B 1903 L 2-4 1480 1545 18.45% 23.56% 57.99% -3.2 0
1963-05-26 KB Copenhagen W 3-0 1542 1563 48.10% 24.74% 27.16% +8.4 11
1963-05-26 @ Vejle BK L 0-3 1563 1542 27.16% 24.74% 48.10% -8.4 4
1963-05-28 Aarhus GF L 1-5 1477 1583 36.67% 24.77% 38.56% -11.5 0
1963-05-28 @ Koge BK W 5-1 1583 1477 38.56% 24.77% 36.67% +11.5 11
1963-05-30 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1465 1555 39.03% 24.86% 36.11% -7.6 0
1963-05-30 @ Koge BK W 2-0 1555 1465 36.11% 24.86% 39.03% +7.7 6
1963-06-05 B 1903 W 5-2 1602 1548 56.82% 23.77% 19.41% +4.6 14
1963-06-05 @ B 1913 L 2-5 1548 1602 19.41% 23.77% 56.82% -4.6 11
1963-06-05 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1485 1563 40.64% 24.89% 34.47% -0.1 5
1963-06-05 @ Bronshoj D 1-1 1563 1485 34.47% 24.89% 40.64% +0.1 7
1963-06-08 B 1901 W 3-2 1510 1554 45.28% 24.86% 29.86% +3.0 8
1963-06-08 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1554 1510 29.86% 24.86% 45.28% -2.9 10
1963-06-09 Bronshoj L 1-5 1481 1484 50.40% 24.58% 25.02% -14.9 5
1963-06-09 @ Aalborg W 5-1 1484 1481 25.02% 24.58% 50.40% +14.9 7
1963-06-09 Esbjerg D 1-1 1507 1710 24.84% 23.46% 51.70% +0.6 8
1963-06-09 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1710 1507 51.70% 23.46% 24.84% -0.6 18
1963-06-09 Koge BK W 2-0 1606 1458 65.89% 21.51% 12.61% +2.9 16
1963-06-09 @ B 1913 L 0-2 1458 1606 12.61% 21.51% 65.89% -2.9 0
1963-06-09 Vejle BK D 2-2 1543 1550 49.94% 24.62% 25.45% -0.4 12
1963-06-09 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1550 1543 25.45% 24.62% 49.94% +0.4 12
1963-06-09 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1563 1595 46.78% 24.81% 28.42% +5.2 9
1963-06-09 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1595 1563 28.42% 24.81% 46.78% -5.2 11
1963-06-12 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1568 1507 57.55% 23.64% 18.81% +2.1 11
1963-06-12 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1507 1568 18.81% 23.64% 57.55% -2.1 8
1963-06-13 Koge BK D 2-2 1499 1455 55.86% 23.93% 20.22% -0.6 8
1963-06-13 @ Bronshoj D 2-2 1455 1499 20.22% 23.93% 55.86% +0.6 1
1963-06-15 Vejle BK W 5-1 1590 1551 55.26% 24.02% 20.72% +7.3 13
1963-06-15 @ Aarhus GF L 1-5 1551 1590 20.72% 24.02% 55.26% -7.3 12
1963-06-15 B 1909 D 3-3 1570 1513 57.15% 23.71% 19.14% -0.5 12
1963-06-15 @ KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1513 1570 19.14% 23.71% 57.15% +0.5 9
1963-06-16 Aalborg L 2-3 1505 1466 55.23% 24.02% 20.74% -4.9 8
1963-06-16 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1466 1505 20.74% 24.02% 55.23% +4.9 7
1963-06-16 B 1913 W 4-2 1499 1609 36.15% 24.75% 39.11% +5.9 10
1963-06-16 @ Bronshoj L 2-4 1609 1499 39.11% 24.75% 36.15% -5.9 16
1963-06-16 B 1903 L 1-3 1709 1543 67.38% 20.99% 11.64% -10.6 18
1963-06-16 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1543 1709 11.64% 20.99% 67.38% +10.6 14
1963-06-16 B 1901 W 2-1 1455 1551 38.18% 24.83% 36.99% +3.7 3
1963-06-16 @ Koge BK L 1-2 1551 1455 36.99% 24.83% 38.18% -3.7 10
1963-08-18 Esbjerg W 2-1 1597 1699 37.35% 24.80% 37.85% +3.7 15
1963-08-18 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1699 1597 37.85% 24.80% 37.35% -3.7 18
1963-08-18 B 1909 W 4-3 1547 1514 54.64% 24.11% 21.25% +2.2 12
1963-08-18 @ B 1901 L 3-4 1514 1547 21.25% 24.11% 54.64% -2.2 9
1963-08-18 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1505 1500 51.26% 24.50% 24.24% -8.3 10
1963-08-18 @ Bronshoj W 3-1 1500 1505 24.24% 24.50% 51.26% +8.3 10
1963-08-18 Aalborg W 2-0 1570 1471 61.33% 22.83% 15.84% +3.6 14
1963-08-18 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1471 1570 15.84% 22.83% 61.33% -3.6 7
1963-08-18 B 1903 D 1-1 1459 1554 38.36% 24.84% 36.80% -0.0 4
1963-08-18 @ Koge BK D 1-1 1554 1459 36.80% 24.84% 38.36% +0.0 15
1963-08-18 B 1913 L 3-4 1543 1603 43.13% 24.90% 31.97% -3.8 12
1963-08-18 @ Vejle BK W 4-3 1603 1543 31.97% 24.90% 43.13% +3.8 18
1963-08-24 Aarhus GF W 3-0 1468 1601 33.10% 24.55% 42.35% +11.8 9
1963-08-24 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1601 1468 42.35% 24.55% 33.10% -11.8 15
1963-08-25 B 1901 W 3-0 1607 1550 57.21% 23.70% 19.08% +6.2 20
1963-08-25 @ B 1913 L 0-3 1550 1607 19.08% 23.70% 57.21% -6.2 12
1963-08-25 AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1695 1509 68.98% 20.38% 10.64% +3.5 20
1963-08-25 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1509 1695 10.64% 20.38% 68.98% -3.5 10
1963-08-25 KB Copenhagen L 3-5 1554 1573 48.36% 24.72% 26.92% -6.7 15
1963-08-25 @ B 1903 W 5-3 1573 1554 26.92% 24.72% 48.36% +6.7 16
1963-08-25 Bronshoj L 0-2 1459 1496 46.09% 24.83% 29.07% -8.8 4
1963-08-25 @ Koge BK W 2-0 1496 1459 29.07% 24.83% 46.09% +8.8 12
1963-08-27 Vejle BK L 1-2 1512 1539 47.34% 24.78% 27.88% -4.5 9
1963-08-27 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1539 1512 27.88% 24.78% 47.34% +4.5 14
1963-09-01 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1505 1589 39.89% 24.88% 35.23% +5.5 12
1963-09-01 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-4 1589 1505 35.23% 24.88% 39.89% -5.5 15
1963-09-01 Koge BK D 1-1 1543 1450 60.84% 22.95% 16.21% -1.0 13
1963-09-01 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1450 1543 16.21% 22.95% 60.84% +1.0 5
1963-09-01 B 1903 W 4-1 1507 1547 45.81% 24.84% 29.35% +7.5 11
1963-09-01 @ B 1909 L 1-4 1547 1507 29.35% 24.84% 45.81% -7.5 15
1963-09-01 Esbjerg L 2-3 1613 1698 39.65% 24.87% 35.47% -3.7 20
1963-09-01 @ B 1913 W 3-2 1698 1613 35.47% 24.87% 39.65% +3.7 22
1963-09-01 Bronshoj D 3-3 1580 1505 59.01% 23.36% 17.63% -0.6 17
1963-09-01 @ KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1505 1580 17.63% 23.36% 59.01% +0.6 13
1963-09-01 Aalborg D 1-1 1544 1480 57.95% 23.57% 18.48% -0.9 15
1963-09-01 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1480 1544 18.48% 23.57% 57.95% +0.9 10
1963-09-07 B 1901 L 0-1 1506 1542 46.18% 24.83% 28.99% -4.7 13
1963-09-07 @ Bronshoj W 1-0 1542 1506 28.99% 24.83% 46.18% +4.6 15
1963-09-08 B 1903 D 1-1 1480 1539 43.25% 24.90% 31.85% -0.2 11
1963-09-08 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1539 1480 31.85% 24.90% 43.25% +0.2 16
1963-09-08 B 1913 W 4-1 1583 1609 47.54% 24.77% 27.69% +7.2 17
1963-09-08 @ Aarhus GF L 1-4 1609 1583 27.69% 24.77% 47.54% -7.2 20
1963-09-08 B 1909 L 3-4 1511 1515 50.27% 24.59% 25.14% -4.4 12
1963-09-08 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-3 1515 1511 25.14% 24.59% 50.27% +4.4 13
1963-09-08 Koge BK W 6-5 1702 1451 73.80% 18.25% 7.95% +0.8 24
1963-09-08 @ Esbjerg L 5-6 1451 1702 7.95% 18.25% 73.80% -0.8 5
1963-09-08 Vejle BK W 2-0 1579 1543 54.94% 24.07% 20.99% +4.7 19
1963-09-08 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1543 1579 20.99% 24.07% 54.94% -4.7 15
1963-09-17 B 1913 D 2-2 1519 1602 39.95% 24.88% 35.17% -0.1 14
1963-09-17 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1602 1519 35.17% 24.88% 39.95% +0.1 21
1963-09-22 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1547 1506 55.42% 24.00% 20.58% -0.8 16
1963-09-22 @ B 1901 D 1-1 1506 1547 20.58% 24.00% 55.42% +0.8 13
1963-09-22 KB Copenhagen W 5-2 1519 1584 42.47% 24.90% 32.63% +7.1 16
1963-09-22 @ B 1909 L 2-5 1584 1519 32.63% 24.90% 42.47% -7.1 19
1963-09-22 Aalborg L 0-1 1501 1480 53.21% 24.29% 22.50% -5.2 13
1963-09-22 @ Bronshoj W 1-0 1480 1501 22.50% 24.29% 53.21% +5.3 13
1963-09-22 Esbjerg L 1-4 1540 1703 29.30% 24.16% 46.54% -7.5 16
1963-09-22 @ B 1903 W 4-1 1703 1540 46.54% 24.16% 29.30% +7.5 26
1963-09-22 B 1913 W 3-1 1450 1602 30.69% 24.32% 44.99% +7.4 7
1963-09-22 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1602 1450 44.99% 24.32% 30.69% -7.4 21
1963-09-22 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1538 1591 44.15% 24.89% 30.97% +6.4 17
1963-09-22 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1591 1538 30.97% 24.89% 44.15% -6.4 17
1963-09-28 B 1901 W 1-0 1532 1546 49.04% 24.68% 26.28% +3.0 18
1963-09-28 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1546 1532 26.28% 24.68% 49.04% -3.0 16
1963-09-29 B 1909 L 2-5 1485 1526 45.65% 24.85% 29.50% -9.2 13
1963-09-29 @ Aalborg W 5-2 1526 1485 29.50% 24.85% 45.65% +9.2 18
1963-09-29 Koge BK D 1-1 1584 1458 63.93% 22.12% 13.94% -1.2 18
1963-09-29 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1458 1584 13.94% 22.12% 63.93% +1.2 8
1963-09-29 Vejle BK L 1-4 1507 1545 46.07% 24.83% 29.10% -10.7 13
1963-09-29 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1545 1507 29.10% 24.83% 46.07% +10.7 19
1963-09-29 Bronshoj W 5-2 1595 1496 61.42% 22.81% 15.77% +3.8 23
1963-09-29 @ B 1913 L 2-5 1496 1595 15.77% 22.81% 61.42% -3.8 13
1963-09-29 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1710 1577 64.58% 21.93% 13.50% +1.5 28
1963-09-29 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1577 1710 13.50% 21.93% 64.58% -1.5 19
1963-10-12 Koge BK D 2-2 1497 1459 55.08% 24.05% 20.88% -0.6 14
1963-10-12 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1459 1497 20.88% 24.05% 55.08% +0.6 9
1963-10-13 B 1901 D 0-0 1476 1543 42.16% 24.90% 32.94% -0.2 14
1963-10-13 @ Aalborg D 0-0 1543 1476 32.94% 24.90% 42.16% +0.2 17
1963-10-13 Aarhus GF W 3-2 1535 1583 44.76% 24.87% 30.36% +3.0 20
1963-10-13 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1583 1535 30.36% 24.87% 44.76% -3.0 18
1963-10-13 Esbjerg D 2-2 1492 1712 23.13% 23.10% 53.77% +0.5 14
1963-10-13 @ Bronshoj D 2-2 1712 1492 53.77% 23.10% 23.13% -0.5 29
1963-10-13 B 1913 L 2-3 1575 1599 47.88% 24.75% 27.37% -4.3 19
1963-10-13 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1599 1575 27.37% 24.75% 47.88% +4.3 25
1963-10-13 B 1903 D 1-1 1555 1535 53.15% 24.30% 22.55% -0.7 20
1963-10-13 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1535 1555 22.55% 24.30% 53.15% +0.7 19
1963-10-20 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1544 1571 47.35% 24.78% 27.87% +5.9 19
1963-10-20 @ B 1901 L 0-2 1571 1544 27.87% 24.78% 47.35% -5.9 19
1963-10-20 AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1603 1496 62.17% 22.61% 15.21% -5.4 25
1963-10-20 @ B 1913 W 3-2 1496 1603 15.21% 22.61% 62.17% +5.4 16
1963-10-20 B 1909 D 0-0 1492 1538 44.98% 24.87% 30.15% -0.3 15
1963-10-20 @ Bronshoj D 0-0 1538 1492 30.15% 24.87% 44.98% +0.3 21
1963-10-20 Vejle BK W 4-0 1711 1555 66.56% 21.28% 12.16% +5.2 31
1963-10-20 @ Esbjerg L 0-4 1555 1711 12.16% 21.28% 66.56% -5.2 20
1963-10-20 Aarhus GF W 4-1 1536 1580 45.21% 24.86% 29.93% +7.7 21
1963-10-20 @ B 1903 L 1-4 1580 1536 29.93% 24.86% 45.21% -7.6 18
1963-10-20 Aalborg W 5-0 1460 1476 48.75% 24.70% 26.55% +13.3 11
1963-10-20 @ Koge BK L 0-5 1476 1460 26.55% 24.70% 48.75% -13.3 14
1963-10-27 Esbjerg W 3-1 1463 1716 20.00% 22.27% 57.73% +9.1 16
1963-10-27 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1716 1463 57.73% 22.27% 20.00% -9.1 31
1963-10-27 Bronshoj D 1-1 1572 1492 59.57% 23.24% 17.20% -1.0 19
1963-10-27 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1492 1572 17.20% 23.24% 59.57% +1.0 16
1963-10-27 AB Gladsaxe D 3-3 1543 1501 55.59% 23.97% 20.44% -0.5 22
1963-10-27 @ B 1903 D 3-3 1501 1543 20.44% 23.97% 55.59% +0.5 17
1963-10-27 Koge BK W 5-2 1565 1473 60.76% 22.97% 16.28% +3.9 21
1963-10-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-5 1473 1565 16.28% 22.97% 60.76% -3.9 11
1963-10-27 B 1901 W 3-2 1550 1549 50.78% 24.55% 24.68% +2.5 22
1963-10-27 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1549 1550 24.68% 24.55% 50.78% -2.5 19
1963-11-10 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1502 1569 42.13% 24.90% 32.97% -0.1 18
1963-11-10 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1569 1502 32.97% 24.90% 42.13% +0.1 22
1963-11-10 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1547 1571 47.74% 24.76% 27.50% -4.5 19
1963-11-10 @ B 1901 W 2-1 1571 1547 27.50% 24.76% 47.74% +4.5 21
1963-11-10 Aalborg L 2-3 1598 1472 63.89% 22.14% 13.98% -5.5 25
1963-11-10 @ B 1913 W 3-2 1472 1598 13.98% 22.14% 63.89% +5.5 18
1963-11-10 B 1903 D 2-2 1493 1543 44.46% 24.88% 30.66% -0.2 17
1963-11-10 @ Bronshoj D 2-2 1543 1493 30.66% 24.88% 44.46% +0.2 23
1963-11-10 B 1909 W 3-1 1707 1539 67.57% 20.92% 11.51% +2.3 33
1963-11-10 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1539 1707 11.51% 20.92% 67.57% -2.3 21
1963-11-10 Vejle BK D 1-1 1469 1552 39.94% 24.88% 35.17% -0.1 12
1963-11-10 @ Koge BK D 1-1 1552 1469 35.17% 24.88% 39.94% +0.1 23
1963-11-17 AB Gladsaxe L 3-5 1477 1502 47.77% 24.76% 27.47% -6.6 18
1963-11-17 @ Aalborg W 5-3 1502 1477 27.47% 24.76% 47.77% +6.6 20
1963-11-17 KB Copenhagen W 4-3 1576 1569 51.56% 24.47% 23.97% +2.4 23
1963-11-17 @ Aarhus GF L 3-4 1569 1576 23.97% 24.47% 51.56% -2.4 22
1963-11-17 Esbjerg W 1-0 1542 1710 28.82% 24.10% 47.08% +4.7 21
1963-11-17 @ B 1901 L 0-1 1710 1542 47.08% 24.10% 28.82% -4.7 33
1963-11-17 Koge BK W 7-3 1537 1469 58.29% 23.50% 18.21% +5.0 23
1963-11-17 @ B 1909 L 3-7 1469 1537 18.21% 23.50% 58.29% -5.0 12
1963-11-17 B 1913 W 2-0 1543 1592 44.58% 24.88% 30.54% +6.3 25
1963-11-17 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1592 1543 30.54% 24.88% 44.58% -6.3 25
1963-11-17 Bronshoj L 0-2 1552 1493 57.43% 23.66% 18.91% -10.6 23
1963-11-17 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1493 1552 18.91% 23.66% 57.43% +10.6 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-06-16 11.64% B 1903 1543 3 @ Esbjerg 1709 1
2 1963-11-10 13.98% Aalborg 1472 3 @ B 1913 1598 2
3 1963-10-20 15.21% AB Gladsaxe 1496 3 @ B 1913 1603 2
4 1963-11-17 18.91% Bronshoj 1493 2 @ Vejle BK 1552 0
5 1963-04-21 19.67% B 1909 1503 4 @ Vejle BK 1554 1
6 1963-10-27 20.00% @ Aalborg 1463 3 Esbjerg 1716 1
7 1963-04-07 20.39% B 1903 1539 3 @ Aarhus GF 1581 1
8 1963-06-16 20.74% Aalborg 1466 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1505 2
9 1963-04-07 20.78% B 1901 1535 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1573 1
10 1963-09-22 22.50% Aalborg 1480 1 @ Bronshoj 1501 0
11 1963-04-15 23.02% AB Gladsaxe 1488 3 @ Koge BK 1504 0
12 1963-04-07 23.52% Aalborg 1499 2 @ B 1909 1510 1
13 1963-08-18 24.24% AB Gladsaxe 1500 3 @ Bronshoj 1505 1
14 1963-06-09 25.02% Bronshoj 1484 5 @ Aalborg 1481 1
15 1963-09-08 25.14% B 1909 1515 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1511 3
16 1963-08-25 26.92% KB Copenhagen 1573 5 @ B 1903 1554 3
17 1963-10-13 27.37% B 1913 1599 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1575 2
18 1963-11-17 27.47% AB Gladsaxe 1502 5 @ Aalborg 1477 3
19 1963-11-10 27.50% Aarhus GF 1571 2 @ B 1901 1547 1
20 1963-05-12 27.53% B 1909 1509 2 @ Koge BK 1485 1
21 1963-08-27 27.88% Vejle BK 1539 2 @ B 1909 1512 1
22 1963-11-17 28.82% @ B 1901 1542 1 Esbjerg 1710 0
23 1963-09-07 28.99% B 1901 1542 1 @ Bronshoj 1506 0
24 1963-08-25 29.07% Bronshoj 1496 2 @ Koge BK 1459 0
25 1963-09-29 29.10% Vejle BK 1545 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1507 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-04-14 16.73 @ B 1901 6 1537 46.60% Vejle BK 0 1570 28.59% 24.81%
2 1963-06-09 14.93 Bronshoj 5 1484 25.02% @ Aalborg 1 1481 50.40% 24.58%
3 1963-04-15 14.25 AB Gladsaxe 3 1488 23.02% @ Koge BK 0 1504 52.62% 24.36%
4 1963-10-20 13.27 @ Koge BK 5 1460 48.75% Aalborg 0 1476 26.55% 24.70%
5 1963-04-07 13.07 @ Vejle BK 6 1550 54.63% Koge BK 0 1517 21.26% 24.11%
6 1963-04-21 12.81 B 1909 4 1503 19.67% @ Vejle BK 1 1554 56.51% 23.82%
7 1963-08-24 11.81 @ Aalborg 3 1468 33.10% Aarhus GF 0 1601 42.35% 24.55%
8 1963-05-28 11.52 Aarhus GF 5 1583 38.56% @ Koge BK 1 1477 36.67% 24.77%
9 1963-04-21 11.39 Esbjerg 5 1685 39.10% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1575 36.15% 24.75%
10 1963-09-29 10.71 Vejle BK 4 1545 29.10% @ AB Gladsaxe 1 1507 46.07% 24.83%
11 1963-11-17 10.61 Bronshoj 2 1493 18.91% @ Vejle BK 0 1552 57.43% 23.66%
12 1963-06-16 10.58 B 1903 3 1543 11.64% @ Esbjerg 1 1709 67.38% 20.99%
13 1963-04-14 9.93 KB Copenhagen 4 1565 33.09% @ Aalborg 1 1496 42.00% 24.90%
14 1963-04-25 9.31 @ AB Gladsaxe 3 1502 44.18% B 1903 0 1554 30.94% 24.89%
15 1963-03-31 9.30 Esbjerg 3 1674 44.45% @ Koge BK 0 1526 31.18% 24.38%
16 1963-09-29 9.21 B 1909 5 1526 29.50% @ Aalborg 2 1485 45.65% 24.85%
17 1963-10-27 9.11 @ Aalborg 3 1463 20.00% Esbjerg 1 1716 57.73% 22.27%
18 1963-04-07 8.93 B 1903 3 1539 20.39% @ Aarhus GF 1 1581 55.65% 23.96%
19 1963-04-07 8.87 B 1901 3 1535 20.78% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1573 55.19% 24.03%
20 1963-08-25 8.75 Bronshoj 2 1496 29.07% @ Koge BK 0 1459 46.09% 24.83%
21 1963-05-26 8.40 @ Vejle BK 3 1542 48.10% KB Copenhagen 0 1563 27.16% 24.74%
22 1963-08-18 8.30 AB Gladsaxe 3 1500 24.24% @ Bronshoj 1 1505 51.26% 24.50%
23 1963-05-30 7.65 KB Copenhagen 2 1555 36.11% @ Koge BK 0 1465 39.03% 24.86%
24 1963-10-20 7.65 @ B 1903 4 1536 45.21% Aarhus GF 1 1580 29.93% 24.86%
25 1963-09-01 7.53 @ B 1909 4 1507 45.81% B 1903 1 1547 29.35% 24.84%