1962 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Esbjerg

37 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1961

Relegated

Odense

18 pts

Frederikshavn · 18 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

6.16 points above expected

37 points · 30.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Koge BK

3.84 points below expected

18 points · 21.84 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Esbjerg Champion 22 18 1 3 37 61 16 +45 30.84 +6.16
2 B 1913 22 13 3 6 29 52 37 +15 24.21 +4.79
3 Aarhus GF 22 11 5 6 27 59 41 +18 24.14 +2.86
4 KB Copenhagen 22 9 5 8 23 42 42 0 26.65 -3.65
5 Vejle BK 22 9 2 11 20 51 47 +4 23.03 -3.03
6 Bronshoj 22 8 3 11 19 32 45 -13 20.16 -1.16
7 AB Gladsaxe 22 7 5 10 19 31 47 -16 15.08 +3.92
8 Koge BK 22 6 6 10 18 36 42 -6 21.84 -3.84
9 B 1903 22 6 6 10 18 35 43 -8 20.56 -2.56
10 B 1909 22 5 8 9 18 30 41 -11 20.20 -2.20
11 Odense Relegated 22 6 6 10 18 31 44 -13 20.00 -2.00
12 Frederikshavn Relegated 22 7 4 11 18 23 38 -15 17.29 +0.71

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Esbjerg 1755 37 30.84 +6.16 96.8% 17 25 28 31 33 37 43
B 1913 1625 29 24.21 +4.79 90.9% 9 18 22 24 27 31 38
Aarhus GF 1604 27 24.14 +2.86 79.8% 10 18 21 24 27 31 38
KB Copenhagen 1591 23 26.65 -3.65 21.5% 11 20 24 27 29 33 40
Vejle BK 1550 20 23.03 -3.03 26.9% 9 16 20 23 26 30 40
B 1903 1526 18 20.56 -2.56 30.9% 5 14 18 21 23 27 36
Koge BK 1507 18 21.84 -3.84 20.3% 4 15 19 22 25 29 36
Odense 1489 18 20.00 -2.00 36.1% 5 13 17 20 23 27 35
B 1909 1485 18 20.20 -2.20 33.7% 6 14 17 20 23 27 36
Bronshoj 1464 19 20.16 -1.16 44.3% 7 14 17 20 23 27 37
Frederikshavn 1457 18 17.29 +0.71 62.5% 5 11 15 17 20 24 33
AB Gladsaxe 1454 19 15.08 +3.92 87.2% 1 9 12 15 18 22 31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B1 B1 BRO ESB FRE KC KB ODE VB
AB Gladsaxe
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
1.62
2-0-0
2.05
0-0-2
1.14
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
1.97
1-0-1
1.90
Aarhus GF
1-1-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.24
2-0-0
3.41
0-2-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.22
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
3.77
1-1-0
2.28
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.34
0-1-1
2.99
B 1903
1-0-1
3.68
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
1.45
0-1-1
3.35
0-1-1
1.90
1-1-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.52
B 1909
1-0-1
3.42
0-0-2
2.16
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.14
0-2-0
3.03
1-0-1
1.40
0-1-1
3.18
0-1-1
1.84
1-1-0
2.57
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.46
B 1913
1-1-0
3.96
0-2-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
3.43
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
1.87
2-0-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.84
Bronshoj
0-0-2
3.52
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-1
2.76
0-2-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
3.12
1-1-0
2.02
1-0-1
2.54
2-0-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.41
Esbjerg
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
4.14
1-0-1
4.19
1-0-1
3.70
2-0-0
4.11
2-0-0
4.19
1-0-1
3.46
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
4.20
2-0-0
3.95
Frederikshavn
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
1.81
1-1-0
2.22
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-2
1.41
0-1-1
1.57
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
1.97
KB Copenhagen
1-0-1
4.18
0-1-1
3.29
1-1-0
3.67
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
3.56
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
4.01
1-0-1
3.44
0-0-2
3.60
2-0-0
3.20
Koge BK
1-1-0
3.66
0-0-2
2.41
0-1-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
1.65
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.13
0-2-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.55
Odense
0-1-1
3.60
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.72
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.18
0-0-2
2.78
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
1.98
0-2-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.40
Vejle BK
1-0-1
3.67
1-1-0
2.58
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
3.16
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
3.60
0-0-2
2.37
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
3.17

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.72 +4.1
Allowed 0.69 -6.1
Differential 0.92 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.27%6.06%4.17%2.65%3.03%0.38%18.56%
16.06%6.82%8.71%3.41%2.27%1.14%28.41%
24.17%8.71%5.30%3.41%1.52%1.14%24.24%
32.65%3.41%3.41%5.30%1.14%0.76%16.67%
43.03%2.27%1.52%1.14%7.95%
5+0.38%1.14%1.14%0.76%0.76%4.17%
Total18.56%28.41%24.24%16.67%7.95%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.46 2.11
CV 0.80 0.80
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%36.36%
14.55%4.55%
29.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
4
5+
Total18.18%27.27%13.64%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.14 -0.73
SD 1.18 1.88 2.53
CV 0.84 0.88
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
213.64%13.64%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
Total18.18%27.27%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 1.86 +0.82
SD 2.03 1.42 2.20
CV 0.76 0.76
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%13.64%18.18%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
4
5+
Total22.73%22.73%27.27%9.09%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.95 -0.36
SD 0.96 1.79 1.73
CV 0.60 0.91
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%22.73%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.86 -0.50
SD 1.36 1.49 1.97
CV 1.00 0.80
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%31.82%
213.64%4.55%18.18%
318.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.68 +0.68
SD 1.56 1.17 1.94
CV 0.66 0.70
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
14.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%40.91%
213.64%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%
413.64%13.64%
5+
Total13.64%18.18%22.73%40.91%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.05 -0.59
SD 1.30 1.17 1.71
CV 0.89 0.57
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%
1
213.64%22.73%36.36%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
418.18%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total45.45%40.91%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 0.73 +2.05
SD 1.85 0.83 2.13
CV 0.67 1.14
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%13.64%45.45%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
24.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
3
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.73 -0.68
SD 1.25 1.72 2.34
CV 1.20 1.00
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+
Total13.64%22.73%36.36%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.91 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.66
CV 0.66 0.66
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%31.82%
4
5+
Total13.64%27.27%27.27%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.91 -0.27
SD 1.14 1.31 1.75
CV 0.69 0.68
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%18.18%40.91%
213.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total9.09%31.82%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.00 -0.59
SD 1.01 1.41 1.53
CV 0.72 0.71
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
49.09%9.09%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total18.18%18.18%22.73%22.73%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 2.14 +0.18
SD 1.29 1.55 2.22
CV 0.56 0.73
Max 5 5 +4
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 37 30.84 +6.16
2 B 1913 29 24.21 +4.79
3 AB Gladsaxe 19 15.08 +3.92
4 Aarhus GF 27 24.14 +2.86
5 Frederikshavn 18 17.29 +0.71

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Koge BK 18 21.84 -3.84
2 KB Copenhagen 23 26.65 -3.65
3 Vejle BK 20 23.03 -3.03
4 B 1903 18 20.56 -2.56
5 B 1909 18 20.20 -2.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1913 7 Jun 24 – Oct 7 1 in 141
2 Aarhus GF 5 Jun 17 – Sep 9 1 in 32
3 Esbjerg 7 May 27 – Sep 9 1 in 31
4 Vejle BK 4 May 27 – Jun 24 1 in 29
5 Frederikshavn 3 Nov 11 – Nov 25 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bronshoj 6 Sep 9 – Nov 4 1 in 133
2 KB Copenhagen 3 Apr 19 – May 6 1 in 42
3 Aarhus GF 3 Oct 7 – Nov 4 1 in 40
4 Odense 4 Sep 2 – Sep 30 1 in 34
5 B 1913 3 May 6 – May 13 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AB Gladsaxe 6 Oct 7 – Nov 25 1 in 127
2 Esbjerg 14 May 27 – Nov 18 1 in 15
3 Aarhus GF 7 Jun 17 – Sep 30 1 in 11
4 B 1913 7 Jun 24 – Oct 7 1 in 11
5 Odense 4 Apr 15 – May 13 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1903 12 Apr 15 – Sep 2 1 in 246
2 B 1909 10 May 27 – Oct 7 1 in 53
3 Vejle BK 6 Oct 7 – Nov 25 1 in 36
4 Odense 7 Jun 17 – Sep 30 1 in 29
5 Bronshoj 7 Sep 9 – Nov 11 1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Esbjerg64.75%19.42%8.00%3.64%2.14%1.09%0.43%0.28%0.14%0.09%0.02%
B 19135.81%15.04%16.30%15.29%12.29%10.35%8.29%6.25%4.70%2.85%1.94%0.89%
Aarhus GF5.53%15.43%16.53%15.23%12.17%10.05%7.91%6.68%4.68%3.13%1.95%0.71%
KB Copenhagen15.54%24.28%18.92%13.25%9.67%6.75%4.52%3.11%1.99%1.14%0.66%0.17%
Vejle BK3.43%9.14%12.35%13.20%13.38%11.93%10.28%9.25%7.36%4.98%3.11%1.59%
Bronshoj0.69%2.69%4.27%6.16%8.28%9.92%11.15%12.56%12.68%13.25%11.16%7.19%
AB Gladsaxe0.04%0.14%0.27%0.73%1.14%2.10%3.36%4.72%8.09%13.08%21.34%44.99%
Koge BK1.95%5.30%8.05%10.65%11.74%12.17%12.37%11.52%9.62%7.80%6.02%2.81%
B 19030.86%3.21%4.91%7.71%9.34%11.39%11.63%12.20%12.82%11.25%9.06%5.62%
B 19090.68%2.54%4.84%6.22%8.27%10.24%12.15%12.51%12.13%13.15%10.44%6.83%
Odense0.65%2.19%4.21%5.94%8.12%9.26%11.39%11.83%13.30%13.43%12.17%7.51%
Frederikshavn0.07%0.62%1.35%1.98%3.46%4.75%6.52%9.09%12.49%15.85%22.13%21.69%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.27%
No Edge
40.91%20.45%38.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 7.90 Elo pts.
138 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Esbjerg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.19 * Some Luck: 3.19 to 4.79 * Lucky: 4.79 to 6.39 * Wild Swing: 6.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.66 * Close: 1.66 to 2.49 * Off: 2.49 to 3.32 * Way Off: 3.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.9 * A Surprise: 0.9 to 1.44 * Several Surprises: 1.44 to 1.98 * Many Surprises: 1.98 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.40 points
Some Luck
03.9910
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
02.085
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.77%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
20.33%
Koge BK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.29
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.75
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.90
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.072
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Esbjerg 99.98% 0.02%
KB Copenhagen 99.17% 0.83%
Aarhus GF 97.34% 2.66%
B 1913 97.17% 2.83%
Vejle BK 95.30% 4.70%
Koge BK 91.17% 8.83%
B 1903 85.32% 14.68%
B 1909 82.73% 17.27%
Bronshoj 81.65% 18.35%
Odense 80.32% 19.68%
Frederikshavn 56.18% 43.82%
AB Gladsaxe 33.67% 66.33%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1962-03-25 Esbjerg L 0-4 1488 1635 22.42% 21.09% 56.49% -15.2 0
1962-03-25 @ Frederikshavn W 4-0 1635 1488 56.49% 21.09% 22.42% +15.2 2
1962-04-01 B 1913 D 1-1 1544 1565 37.78% 21.69% 40.53% +0.1 1
1962-04-01 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1565 1544 40.53% 21.69% 37.78% -0.1 1
1962-04-01 B 1909 L 1-4 1449 1530 29.90% 21.53% 48.57% -12.5 0
1962-04-01 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-1 1530 1449 48.57% 21.53% 29.90% +12.5 2
1962-04-01 Odense W 4-3 1516 1529 39.04% 21.69% 39.27% +5.9 2
1962-04-01 @ Bronshoj L 3-4 1529 1516 39.27% 21.69% 39.04% -5.9 0
1962-04-01 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1650 1626 44.19% 21.66% 34.15% -7.4 2
1962-04-01 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1626 1650 34.15% 21.66% 44.19% +7.4 2
1962-04-01 Frederikshavn W 2-0 1542 1473 50.15% 21.50% 28.35% +9.8 2
1962-04-01 @ Koge BK L 0-2 1473 1542 28.35% 21.50% 50.15% -9.8 0
1962-04-01 B 1903 L 2-3 1540 1542 40.65% 21.69% 37.66% -6.2 0
1962-04-01 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1542 1540 37.66% 21.69% 40.65% +6.2 2
1962-04-15 Bronshoj D 0-0 1542 1522 43.61% 21.67% 34.72% -0.3 3
1962-04-15 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1522 1542 34.72% 21.67% 43.61% +0.4 3
1962-04-15 AB Gladsaxe W 8-0 1642 1437 64.51% 20.29% 15.20% +20.5 4
1962-04-15 @ Esbjerg L 0-8 1437 1642 15.20% 20.29% 64.51% -20.6 0
1962-04-15 B 1913 L 1-2 1548 1565 38.35% 21.69% 39.96% -6.2 2
1962-04-15 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1565 1548 39.96% 21.69% 38.35% +6.2 3
1962-04-15 Vejle BK W 4-2 1463 1534 31.13% 21.57% 47.30% +11.5 2
1962-04-15 @ Frederikshavn L 2-4 1534 1463 47.30% 21.57% 31.13% -11.5 0
1962-04-15 Aarhus GF D 3-3 1633 1544 52.62% 21.39% 25.99% -0.6 3
1962-04-15 @ KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1544 1633 25.99% 21.39% 52.62% +0.6 2
1962-04-15 Koge BK D 1-1 1523 1552 36.74% 21.68% 41.58% +0.2 1
1962-04-15 @ Odense D 1-1 1552 1523 41.58% 21.68% 36.74% -0.2 3
1962-04-19 AB Gladsaxe D 3-3 1544 1416 57.05% 21.11% 21.84% -0.8 3
1962-04-19 @ Aarhus GF D 3-3 1416 1544 21.84% 21.11% 57.05% +0.8 1
1962-04-19 Koge BK L 1-3 1633 1552 51.58% 21.44% 26.98% -13.8 3
1962-04-19 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1552 1633 26.98% 21.44% 51.58% +13.8 5
1962-04-22 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1571 1619 34.18% 21.64% 44.18% +6.6 5
1962-04-22 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1619 1571 44.18% 21.64% 34.18% -6.6 3
1962-04-23 Frederikshavn W 2-0 1544 1475 50.11% 21.51% 28.39% +9.8 5
1962-04-23 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1475 1544 28.39% 21.51% 50.11% -9.8 2
1962-04-23 B 1903 W 2-1 1417 1541 24.74% 21.26% 54.00% +8.3 3
1962-04-23 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1541 1417 54.00% 21.26% 24.74% -8.3 2
1962-04-23 Odense D 3-3 1542 1523 43.42% 21.67% 34.91% -0.2 4
1962-04-23 @ B 1909 D 3-3 1523 1542 34.91% 21.67% 43.42% +0.2 2
1962-04-23 Koge BK W 3-0 1523 1566 34.78% 21.65% 43.56% +20.0 5
1962-04-23 @ Bronshoj L 0-3 1566 1523 43.56% 21.65% 34.78% -20.0 5
1962-04-23 Esbjerg L 1-3 1522 1663 23.04% 21.14% 55.82% -7.1 0
1962-04-23 @ Vejle BK W 3-1 1663 1522 55.82% 21.14% 23.04% +7.1 6
1962-05-03 Bronshoj W 2-0 1425 1543 25.52% 21.31% 53.16% +16.4 5
1962-05-03 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1543 1425 53.16% 21.31% 25.52% -16.4 5
1962-05-06 Vejle BK L 0-4 1542 1515 44.48% 21.66% 33.86% -26.7 4
1962-05-06 @ B 1909 W 4-0 1515 1542 33.86% 21.66% 44.48% +26.6 2
1962-05-06 Esbjerg L 1-2 1578 1670 28.47% 21.47% 50.06% -4.9 5
1962-05-06 @ B 1913 W 2-1 1670 1578 50.06% 21.47% 28.47% +4.9 8
1962-05-06 Frederikshavn D 0-0 1533 1465 50.02% 21.51% 28.48% -0.9 3
1962-05-06 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1465 1533 28.48% 21.51% 50.02% +0.9 3
1962-05-06 Odense L 0-1 1612 1524 52.53% 21.40% 26.07% -8.6 3
1962-05-06 @ KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1524 1612 26.07% 21.40% 52.53% +8.6 4
1962-05-06 Aarhus GF L 3-5 1546 1553 39.74% 21.69% 38.57% -9.4 5
1962-05-06 @ Koge BK W 5-3 1553 1546 38.57% 21.69% 39.74% +9.4 7
1962-05-10 B 1909 L 0-1 1573 1515 48.75% 21.55% 29.70% -8.0 5
1962-05-10 @ B 1913 W 1-0 1515 1573 29.70% 21.55% 48.75% +8.1 6
1962-05-11 Bronshoj L 0-1 1532 1526 41.69% 21.69% 36.62% -7.1 3
1962-05-11 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1526 1532 36.62% 21.69% 41.69% +7.1 7
1962-05-13 Vejle BK L 1-4 1563 1542 43.75% 21.67% 34.58% -17.0 7
1962-05-13 @ Aarhus GF W 4-1 1542 1563 34.58% 21.67% 43.75% +17.0 4
1962-05-13 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1442 1604 20.90% 20.95% 58.15% -3.6 5
1962-05-13 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1604 1442 58.15% 20.95% 20.90% +3.6 5
1962-05-13 B 1913 W 4-3 1533 1565 36.34% 21.68% 41.98% +6.2 9
1962-05-13 @ Bronshoj L 3-4 1565 1533 41.98% 21.68% 36.34% -6.2 5
1962-05-13 Koge BK W 2-1 1675 1536 58.15% 21.02% 20.83% +3.8 10
1962-05-13 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1536 1675 20.83% 21.02% 58.15% -3.7 5
1962-05-13 B 1909 W 2-0 1466 1523 32.90% 21.62% 45.49% +14.3 5
1962-05-13 @ Frederikshavn L 0-2 1523 1466 45.49% 21.62% 32.90% -14.3 6
1962-05-13 B 1903 D 1-1 1532 1525 41.83% 21.69% 36.48% -0.2 5
1962-05-13 @ Odense D 1-1 1525 1532 36.48% 21.69% 41.83% +0.2 4
1962-05-18 Esbjerg W 1-0 1509 1679 20.14% 20.87% 58.99% +9.6 8
1962-05-18 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1679 1509 58.99% 20.87% 20.14% -9.6 10
1962-05-19 Odense W 1-0 1559 1532 44.59% 21.65% 33.76% +6.0 7
1962-05-19 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1532 1559 33.76% 21.65% 44.59% -6.0 5
1962-05-20 Aarhus GF L 3-6 1525 1546 37.92% 21.69% 40.39% -12.1 4
1962-05-20 @ B 1903 W 6-3 1546 1525 40.39% 21.69% 37.92% +12.1 9
1962-05-20 Bronshoj L 1-2 1480 1540 32.59% 21.61% 45.80% -5.5 5
1962-05-20 @ Frederikshavn W 2-1 1540 1480 45.80% 21.61% 32.59% +5.5 11
1962-05-20 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1533 1438 53.22% 21.36% 25.42% -0.8 6
1962-05-20 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1438 1533 25.42% 21.36% 53.22% +0.8 6
1962-05-20 KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1559 1607 34.09% 21.64% 44.27% -13.9 4
1962-05-20 @ Vejle BK W 4-1 1607 1559 44.27% 21.64% 34.09% +13.9 7
1962-05-25 Vejle BK W 2-1 1526 1545 38.11% 21.69% 40.20% +6.5 7
1962-05-25 @ Odense L 1-2 1545 1526 40.20% 21.69% 38.11% -6.5 4
1962-05-27 Odense W 6-2 1558 1532 44.40% 21.66% 33.94% +15.2 11
1962-05-27 @ Aarhus GF L 2-6 1532 1558 33.94% 21.66% 44.40% -15.2 7
1962-05-27 Koge BK D 2-2 1518 1532 38.91% 21.69% 39.40% +0.0 9
1962-05-27 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1532 1518 39.40% 21.69% 38.91% -0.0 7
1962-05-27 AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1565 1439 56.79% 21.13% 22.08% +3.7 9
1962-05-27 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1439 1565 22.08% 21.13% 56.79% -3.7 6
1962-05-27 Vejle BK L 1-3 1545 1539 41.75% 21.69% 36.57% -11.5 11
1962-05-27 @ Bronshoj W 3-1 1539 1545 36.57% 21.69% 41.75% +11.5 6
1962-05-27 B 1903 W 6-2 1669 1513 59.90% 20.85% 19.24% +9.4 12
1962-05-27 @ Esbjerg L 2-6 1513 1669 19.24% 20.85% 59.90% -9.4 4
1962-05-27 Frederikshavn W 1-0 1621 1475 58.95% 20.95% 20.11% +3.9 9
1962-05-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1475 1621 20.11% 20.95% 58.95% -3.9 5
1962-06-02 KB Copenhagen W 4-3 1533 1625 28.55% 21.47% 49.98% +7.2 13
1962-06-02 @ Bronshoj L 3-4 1625 1533 49.98% 21.47% 28.55% -7.2 9
1962-06-03 Vejle BK L 0-1 1435 1550 25.79% 21.33% 52.88% -4.8 6
1962-06-03 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1550 1435 52.88% 21.33% 25.79% +4.8 8
1962-06-03 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1679 1573 54.49% 21.29% 24.22% +4.3 14
1962-06-03 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1573 1679 24.22% 21.29% 54.49% -4.3 11
1962-06-03 B 1909 D 2-2 1504 1518 38.80% 21.69% 39.51% +0.0 5
1962-06-03 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1518 1504 39.51% 21.69% 38.80% -0.0 10
1962-06-03 B 1913 W 3-1 1532 1569 35.64% 21.67% 42.70% +11.8 9
1962-06-03 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1569 1532 42.70% 21.67% 35.64% -11.8 9
1962-06-03 Frederikshavn W 1-0 1517 1471 47.22% 21.60% 31.18% +5.6 9
1962-06-03 @ Odense L 0-1 1471 1517 31.18% 21.60% 47.22% -5.6 5
1962-06-17 Bronshoj W 3-1 1569 1541 44.77% 21.65% 33.58% +9.7 13
1962-06-17 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1541 1569 33.58% 21.65% 44.77% -9.7 13
1962-06-17 AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1465 1430 45.67% 21.63% 32.69% +20.8 7
1962-06-17 @ Frederikshavn L 0-4 1430 1465 32.69% 21.63% 45.67% -20.8 6
1962-06-17 B 1909 W 3-1 1618 1518 53.82% 21.33% 24.85% +7.6 11
1962-06-17 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1518 1618 24.85% 21.33% 53.82% -7.6 10
1962-06-17 B 1903 D 1-1 1544 1504 46.31% 21.62% 32.07% -0.5 10
1962-06-17 @ Koge BK D 1-1 1504 1544 32.07% 21.62% 46.31% +0.5 6
1962-06-17 Esbjerg L 0-4 1523 1683 21.10% 20.97% 57.93% -14.4 9
1962-06-17 @ Odense W 4-0 1683 1523 57.93% 20.97% 21.10% +14.4 16
1962-06-17 B 1913 W 3-1 1555 1557 40.59% 21.69% 37.72% +10.7 10
1962-06-17 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1557 1555 37.72% 21.69% 40.59% -10.7 9
1962-06-21 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1511 1579 31.48% 21.58% 46.94% -5.6 10
1962-06-21 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1579 1511 46.94% 21.58% 31.48% +5.6 15
1962-06-24 Frederikshavn W 4-0 1546 1486 48.99% 21.55% 29.46% +19.1 11
1962-06-24 @ B 1913 L 0-4 1486 1546 29.46% 21.55% 48.99% -19.1 7
1962-06-24 Esbjerg L 0-3 1531 1697 20.50% 20.91% 58.59% -10.7 13
1962-06-24 @ Bronshoj W 3-0 1697 1531 58.59% 20.91% 20.50% +10.7 18
1962-06-24 B 1903 D 1-1 1625 1504 56.24% 21.17% 22.59% -1.3 12
1962-06-24 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1504 1625 22.59% 21.17% 56.24% +1.3 7
1962-06-24 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1509 1410 53.75% 21.33% 24.92% -0.8 10
1962-06-24 @ Odense D 2-2 1410 1509 24.92% 21.33% 53.75% +0.8 7
1962-06-24 Koge BK W 3-2 1566 1543 44.01% 21.66% 34.33% +5.4 12
1962-06-24 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1543 1566 34.33% 21.66% 44.01% -5.4 10
1962-08-22 B 1909 D 1-1 1508 1505 41.24% 21.69% 37.07% -0.1 11
1962-08-22 @ Odense D 1-1 1505 1508 37.07% 21.69% 41.24% +0.1 11
1962-08-23 Bronshoj D 2-2 1624 1520 54.31% 21.30% 24.39% -0.8 13
1962-08-23 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1520 1624 24.39% 21.30% 54.31% +0.8 14
1962-08-26 Aarhus GF L 0-2 1410 1584 19.79% 20.83% 59.38% -7.2 7
1962-08-26 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1584 1410 59.38% 20.83% 19.79% +7.2 17
1962-08-26 Frederikshavn D 1-1 1505 1467 46.12% 21.63% 32.25% -0.5 12
1962-08-26 @ B 1909 D 1-1 1467 1505 32.25% 21.63% 46.12% +0.5 8
1962-08-26 B 1903 W 3-2 1565 1506 48.92% 21.55% 29.53% +4.8 13
1962-08-26 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1506 1565 29.53% 21.55% 48.92% -4.8 7
1962-08-26 Vejle BK W 2-1 1623 1571 47.97% 21.58% 30.45% +5.2 15
1962-08-26 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1571 1623 30.45% 21.58% 47.97% -5.2 12
1962-08-26 Esbjerg L 1-2 1538 1708 20.12% 20.87% 59.01% -3.6 10
1962-08-26 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1708 1538 59.01% 20.87% 20.12% +3.6 20
1962-08-29 Koge BK L 0-3 1403 1534 24.06% 21.22% 54.72% -12.3 7
1962-08-29 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1534 1403 54.72% 21.22% 24.06% +12.3 12
1962-09-02 B 1909 W 6-2 1591 1505 52.30% 21.41% 26.29% +12.3 19
1962-09-02 @ Aarhus GF L 2-6 1505 1591 26.29% 21.41% 52.30% -12.3 12
1962-09-02 Esbjerg L 0-4 1391 1712 9.80% 18.83% 71.37% -7.0 7
1962-09-02 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1712 1391 71.37% 18.83% 9.80% +7.0 22
1962-09-02 Vejle BK L 1-4 1501 1566 31.87% 21.59% 46.54% -13.2 7
1962-09-02 @ B 1903 W 4-1 1566 1501 46.54% 21.59% 31.87% +13.2 14
1962-09-02 B 1913 L 1-7 1467 1570 27.21% 21.41% 51.38% -21.6 8
1962-09-02 @ Frederikshavn W 7-1 1570 1467 51.38% 21.41% 27.21% +21.6 15
1962-09-02 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1546 1628 29.69% 21.52% 48.79% -5.4 12
1962-09-02 @ Koge BK W 1-0 1628 1546 48.79% 21.52% 29.69% +5.4 17
1962-09-02 Bronshoj L 1-2 1508 1521 38.92% 21.69% 39.39% -6.3 11
1962-09-02 @ Odense W 2-1 1521 1508 39.39% 21.69% 38.92% +6.3 16
1962-09-09 B 1903 L 0-1 1492 1488 41.50% 21.69% 36.81% -7.0 12
1962-09-09 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1488 1492 36.81% 21.69% 41.50% +7.0 9
1962-09-09 Koge BK W 4-1 1592 1541 47.78% 21.58% 30.64% +12.8 17
1962-09-09 @ B 1913 L 1-4 1541 1592 30.64% 21.58% 47.78% -12.8 12
1962-09-09 Aarhus GF L 1-4 1527 1604 30.42% 21.54% 48.04% -12.7 16
1962-09-09 @ Bronshoj W 4-1 1604 1527 48.04% 21.54% 30.42% +12.7 21
1962-09-09 Frederikshavn W 2-1 1718 1446 69.65% 19.35% 11.00% +2.1 24
1962-09-09 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1446 1718 11.00% 19.35% 69.65% -2.1 8
1962-09-09 Odense W 2-0 1579 1501 51.20% 21.46% 27.34% +9.5 16
1962-09-09 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1501 1579 27.34% 21.46% 51.20% -9.5 11
1962-09-23 Odense W 2-1 1384 1492 26.60% 21.38% 52.02% +8.0 9
1962-09-23 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1492 1384 52.02% 21.38% 26.60% -8.0 11
1962-09-23 Bronshoj W 2-1 1604 1515 52.66% 21.39% 25.95% +4.5 19
1962-09-23 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1515 1604 25.95% 21.39% 52.66% -4.5 16
1962-09-23 Esbjerg D 3-3 1495 1721 15.51% 20.24% 64.25% +1.2 10
1962-09-23 @ B 1903 D 3-3 1721 1495 64.25% 20.24% 15.51% -1.2 25
1962-09-23 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1444 1634 18.36% 20.66% 60.98% +1.2 9
1962-09-23 @ Frederikshavn D 2-2 1634 1444 60.98% 20.66% 18.36% -1.2 18
1962-09-23 Aarhus GF D 5-5 1588 1616 36.88% 21.68% 41.44% +0.1 17
1962-09-23 @ Vejle BK D 5-5 1616 1588 41.44% 21.68% 36.88% -0.1 22
1962-09-30 Koge BK W 2-0 1616 1528 52.46% 21.40% 26.14% +9.1 24
1962-09-30 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1528 1616 26.14% 21.40% 52.46% -9.1 12
1962-09-30 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1485 1633 22.35% 21.08% 56.57% +1.0 13
1962-09-30 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1633 1485 56.57% 21.08% 22.35% -1.0 19
1962-09-30 Bronshoj W 2-0 1719 1510 64.79% 20.25% 14.96% +5.6 27
1962-09-30 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1510 1719 14.96% 20.25% 64.79% -5.5 16
1962-09-30 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1496 1392 54.34% 21.30% 24.37% +4.6 12
1962-09-30 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1392 1496 24.37% 21.30% 54.34% -4.6 9
1962-09-30 B 1913 L 1-2 1484 1609 24.67% 21.26% 54.07% -4.3 11
1962-09-30 @ Odense W 2-1 1609 1484 54.07% 21.26% 24.67% +4.3 21
1962-09-30 Frederikshavn W 4-0 1589 1445 58.66% 20.97% 20.37% +13.9 19
1962-09-30 @ Vejle BK L 0-4 1445 1589 20.37% 20.97% 58.66% -13.9 9
1962-10-07 Vejle BK W 3-2 1613 1603 42.36% 21.68% 35.95% +5.6 23
1962-10-07 @ B 1913 L 2-3 1603 1613 35.95% 21.68% 42.36% -5.6 19
1962-10-07 B 1909 W 2-0 1725 1486 67.16% 19.85% 12.98% +4.8 29
1962-10-07 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1486 1725 12.98% 19.85% 67.16% -4.8 13
1962-10-07 Odense L 1-2 1500 1479 43.79% 21.67% 34.54% -6.9 12
1962-10-07 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1479 1500 34.54% 21.67% 43.79% +6.9 13
1962-10-07 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1431 1625 17.99% 20.61% 61.39% +10.0 11
1962-10-07 @ Frederikshavn L 0-1 1625 1431 61.39% 20.61% 17.99% -10.0 24
1962-10-07 AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1632 1387 67.59% 19.77% 12.63% -20.6 19
1962-10-07 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1387 1632 12.63% 19.77% 67.59% +20.6 11
1962-10-07 Bronshoj W 3-1 1519 1505 42.87% 21.68% 35.45% +10.1 14
1962-10-07 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1505 1519 35.45% 21.68% 42.87% -10.1 16
1962-10-20 B 1903 L 0-3 1494 1494 40.98% 21.69% 37.33% -19.1 16
1962-10-20 @ Bronshoj W 3-0 1494 1494 37.33% 21.69% 40.98% +19.1 14
1962-10-21 Esbjerg L 0-4 1615 1730 25.88% 21.33% 52.79% -17.1 24
1962-10-21 @ Aarhus GF W 4-0 1730 1615 52.79% 21.33% 25.88% +17.1 31
1962-10-21 Frederikshavn D 0-0 1408 1441 36.16% 21.67% 42.16% +0.2 12
1962-10-21 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1441 1408 42.16% 21.67% 36.16% -0.2 12
1962-10-21 B 1913 W 4-2 1611 1619 39.72% 21.69% 38.59% +9.7 21
1962-10-21 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1619 1611 38.59% 21.69% 39.72% -9.7 23
1962-10-21 Odense D 3-3 1529 1486 46.74% 21.61% 31.65% -0.3 15
1962-10-21 @ Koge BK D 3-3 1486 1529 31.65% 21.61% 46.74% +0.3 14
1962-10-21 B 1909 L 1-5 1597 1481 55.64% 21.21% 23.15% -27.1 19
1962-10-21 @ Vejle BK W 5-1 1481 1597 23.15% 21.21% 55.64% +27.0 15
1962-11-04 B 1913 L 2-4 1508 1609 27.44% 21.42% 51.14% -7.4 15
1962-11-04 @ B 1909 W 4-2 1609 1508 51.14% 21.42% 27.44% +7.3 25
1962-11-04 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1475 1408 49.89% 21.51% 28.60% -13.4 16
1962-11-04 @ Bronshoj W 3-1 1408 1475 28.60% 21.51% 49.89% +13.4 14
1962-11-04 Vejle BK W 3-2 1747 1570 61.94% 20.63% 17.43% +3.0 33
1962-11-04 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1570 1747 17.43% 20.63% 61.94% -3.0 19
1962-11-04 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1513 1621 26.59% 21.37% 52.04% -7.2 14
1962-11-04 @ B 1903 W 4-2 1621 1513 52.04% 21.37% 26.59% +7.2 23
1962-11-04 Koge BK L 0-1 1441 1529 28.95% 21.49% 49.56% -5.3 12
1962-11-04 @ Frederikshavn W 1-0 1529 1441 49.56% 21.49% 28.95% +5.3 17
1962-11-04 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1487 1598 26.18% 21.35% 52.46% +8.1 16
1962-11-04 @ Odense L 1-2 1598 1487 52.46% 21.35% 26.18% -8.1 24
1962-11-11 KB Copenhagen W 5-1 1590 1628 35.52% 21.66% 42.82% +21.5 26
1962-11-11 @ Aarhus GF L 1-5 1628 1590 42.82% 21.66% 35.52% -21.5 23
1962-11-11 B 1913 D 3-3 1422 1617 17.95% 20.61% 61.44% +1.0 15
1962-11-11 @ AB Gladsaxe D 3-3 1617 1422 61.44% 20.61% 17.95% -1.0 26
1962-11-11 B 1909 D 1-1 1462 1501 35.32% 21.66% 43.02% +0.3 17
1962-11-11 @ Bronshoj D 1-1 1501 1462 43.02% 21.66% 35.32% -0.3 16
1962-11-11 Odense W 3-0 1750 1495 68.40% 19.62% 11.98% +6.5 35
1962-11-11 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1495 1750 11.98% 19.62% 68.40% -6.5 16
1962-11-11 B 1903 W 2-1 1435 1505 31.22% 21.57% 47.21% +7.4 14
1962-11-11 @ Frederikshavn L 1-2 1505 1435 47.21% 21.57% 31.22% -7.4 14
1962-11-11 Vejle BK D 3-3 1534 1567 36.20% 21.67% 42.12% +0.1 18
1962-11-11 @ Koge BK D 3-3 1567 1534 42.12% 21.67% 36.20% -0.1 20
1962-11-18 AB Gladsaxe L 0-3 1501 1423 51.26% 21.46% 27.29% -23.1 16
1962-11-18 @ B 1909 W 3-0 1423 1501 27.29% 21.46% 51.26% +23.1 17
1962-11-18 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1616 1612 41.39% 21.69% 36.92% -0.2 27
1962-11-18 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1612 1616 36.92% 21.69% 41.39% +0.2 27
1962-11-18 Koge BK W 3-0 1498 1534 35.73% 21.67% 42.60% +19.7 16
1962-11-18 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1534 1498 42.60% 21.67% 35.73% -19.7 18
1962-11-18 Odense W 2-1 1443 1488 34.46% 21.65% 43.90% +6.9 16
1962-11-18 @ Frederikshavn L 1-2 1488 1443 43.90% 21.65% 34.46% -6.9 16
1962-11-18 Esbjerg L 0-2 1606 1756 22.07% 21.06% 56.87% -7.9 23
1962-11-18 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1756 1606 56.87% 21.06% 22.07% +7.9 37
1962-11-18 Bronshoj L 1-2 1567 1462 54.38% 21.29% 24.33% -8.4 20
1962-11-18 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1462 1567 24.33% 21.29% 54.38% +8.4 19
1962-11-25 B 1903 L 1-2 1612 1518 53.17% 21.36% 25.46% -8.2 27
1962-11-25 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1518 1612 25.46% 21.36% 53.17% +8.2 18
1962-11-25 Frederikshavn L 1-2 1471 1450 43.76% 21.67% 34.57% -6.9 19
1962-11-25 @ Bronshoj W 2-1 1450 1471 34.57% 21.67% 43.76% +6.9 18
1962-11-25 B 1913 L 0-1 1764 1615 59.20% 20.92% 19.87% -9.6 37
1962-11-25 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1615 1764 19.87% 20.92% 59.20% +9.6 29
1962-11-25 B 1909 L 1-2 1515 1478 45.93% 21.63% 32.44% -7.2 18
1962-11-25 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1478 1515 32.44% 21.63% 45.93% +7.2 18
1962-11-25 KB Copenhagen W 3-2 1481 1598 25.56% 21.32% 53.13% +7.8 18
1962-11-25 @ Odense L 2-3 1598 1481 53.13% 21.32% 25.56% -7.8 23
1962-11-25 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1558 1446 55.31% 21.23% 23.46% -8.5 20
1962-11-25 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1446 1558 23.46% 21.23% 55.31% +8.5 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1962-10-07 12.63% AB Gladsaxe 1387 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1632 0
2 1962-10-07 17.99% @ Frederikshavn 1431 1 Aarhus GF 1625 0
3 1962-11-25 19.87% B 1913 1615 1 @ Esbjerg 1764 0
4 1962-05-18 20.14% @ B 1909 1509 1 Esbjerg 1679 0
5 1962-10-21 23.15% B 1909 1481 5 @ Vejle BK 1597 1
6 1962-11-25 23.46% AB Gladsaxe 1446 2 @ Vejle BK 1558 1
7 1962-11-18 24.33% Bronshoj 1462 2 @ Vejle BK 1567 1
8 1962-04-23 24.74% @ AB Gladsaxe 1417 2 B 1903 1541 1
9 1962-11-25 25.46% B 1903 1518 2 @ Aarhus GF 1612 1
10 1962-05-03 25.52% @ AB Gladsaxe 1425 2 Bronshoj 1543 0
11 1962-11-25 25.56% @ Odense 1481 3 KB Copenhagen 1598 2
12 1962-05-06 26.07% Odense 1524 1 @ KB Copenhagen 1612 0
13 1962-11-04 26.18% @ Odense 1487 2 Aarhus GF 1598 1
14 1962-09-23 26.60% @ AB Gladsaxe 1384 2 Odense 1492 1
15 1962-04-19 26.98% Koge BK 1552 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1633 1
16 1962-11-18 27.29% AB Gladsaxe 1423 3 @ B 1909 1501 0
17 1962-06-02 28.55% @ Bronshoj 1533 4 KB Copenhagen 1625 3
18 1962-11-04 28.60% AB Gladsaxe 1408 3 @ Bronshoj 1475 1
19 1962-05-10 29.70% B 1909 1515 1 @ B 1913 1573 0
20 1962-04-15 31.13% @ Frederikshavn 1463 4 Vejle BK 1534 2
21 1962-11-11 31.22% @ Frederikshavn 1435 2 B 1903 1505 1
22 1962-11-25 32.44% B 1909 1478 2 @ Koge BK 1515 1
23 1962-05-13 32.90% @ Frederikshavn 1466 2 B 1909 1523 0
24 1962-05-06 33.86% Vejle BK 1515 4 @ B 1909 1542 0
25 1962-04-01 34.15% KB Copenhagen 1626 1 @ Esbjerg 1650 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1962-10-21 27.06 B 1909 5 1481 23.15% @ Vejle BK 1 1597 55.64% 21.21%
2 1962-05-06 26.65 Vejle BK 4 1515 33.86% @ B 1909 0 1542 44.48% 21.66%
3 1962-11-18 23.06 AB Gladsaxe 3 1423 27.29% @ B 1909 0 1501 51.26% 21.46%
4 1962-09-02 21.61 B 1913 7 1570 51.38% @ Frederikshavn 1 1467 27.21% 21.41%
5 1962-11-11 21.51 @ Aarhus GF 5 1590 35.52% KB Copenhagen 1 1628 42.82% 21.66%
6 1962-06-17 20.83 @ Frederikshavn 4 1465 45.67% AB Gladsaxe 0 1430 32.69% 21.63%
7 1962-10-07 20.61 AB Gladsaxe 2 1387 12.63% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1632 67.59% 19.77%
8 1962-04-15 20.55 @ Esbjerg 8 1642 64.51% AB Gladsaxe 0 1437 15.20% 20.29%
9 1962-04-23 20.05 @ Bronshoj 3 1523 34.78% Koge BK 0 1566 43.56% 21.65%
10 1962-11-18 19.69 @ B 1903 3 1498 35.73% Koge BK 0 1534 42.60% 21.67%
11 1962-06-24 19.13 @ B 1913 4 1546 48.99% Frederikshavn 0 1486 29.46% 21.55%
12 1962-10-20 19.07 B 1903 3 1494 37.33% @ Bronshoj 0 1494 40.98% 21.69%
13 1962-10-21 17.14 Esbjerg 4 1730 52.79% @ Aarhus GF 0 1615 25.88% 21.33%
14 1962-05-13 16.97 Vejle BK 4 1542 34.58% @ Aarhus GF 1 1563 43.75% 21.67%
15 1962-05-03 16.40 @ AB Gladsaxe 2 1425 25.52% Bronshoj 0 1543 53.16% 21.31%
16 1962-05-27 15.17 @ Aarhus GF 6 1558 44.40% Odense 2 1532 33.94% 21.66%
17 1962-03-25 15.16 Esbjerg 4 1635 56.49% @ Frederikshavn 0 1488 22.42% 21.09%
18 1962-06-17 14.37 Esbjerg 4 1683 57.93% @ Odense 0 1523 21.10% 20.97%
19 1962-05-13 14.31 @ Frederikshavn 2 1466 32.90% B 1909 0 1523 45.49% 21.62%
20 1962-09-30 13.94 @ Vejle BK 4 1589 58.66% Frederikshavn 0 1445 20.37% 20.97%
21 1962-05-20 13.90 KB Copenhagen 4 1607 44.27% @ Vejle BK 1 1559 34.09% 21.64%
22 1962-04-19 13.83 Koge BK 3 1552 26.98% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1633 51.58% 21.44%
23 1962-11-04 13.43 AB Gladsaxe 3 1408 28.60% @ Bronshoj 1 1475 49.89% 21.51%
24 1962-09-02 13.16 Vejle BK 4 1566 46.54% @ B 1903 1 1501 31.87% 21.59%
25 1962-09-09 12.75 @ B 1913 4 1592 47.78% Koge BK 1 1541 30.64% 21.58%