1961 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Esbjerg

33 points · 1st Title

Relegated

AIA Tranbjerg

10 pts

Skovshoved · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

7.15 points above expected

33 points · 25.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

AIA Tranbjerg

6.31 points below expected

10 points · 16.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Esbjerg Champion 22 15 3 4 33 52 18 +34 25.85 +7.15
2 KB Copenhagen 22 15 3 4 33 73 41 +32 27.50 +5.50
3 B 1913 22 14 0 8 28 47 32 +15 24.95 +3.05
4 B 1903 22 10 4 8 24 32 27 +5 21.62 +2.38
5 Aarhus GF 22 11 2 9 24 40 38 +2 24.17 -0.17
6 B 1909 22 10 2 10 22 44 45 -1 21.44 +0.56
7 Vejle BK 22 10 0 12 20 42 51 -9 22.04 -2.04
8 Frederikshavn 22 7 5 10 19 29 49 -20 20.06 -1.06
9 Koge BK 22 8 2 12 18 49 46 +3 20.73 -2.73
10 Odense 22 7 4 11 18 34 38 -4 21.74 -3.74
11 Skovshoved Relegated 22 5 5 12 15 23 43 -20 17.58 -2.58
12 AIA Tranbjerg Relegated 22 4 2 16 10 19 56 -37 16.31 -6.31

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1704 33 27.50 +5.50 93.0% 9 21 25 28 30 34 42
Esbjerg 1704 33 25.85 +7.15 96.7% 11 19 23 26 29 33 41
B 1913 1599 28 24.95 +3.05 80.0% 10 18 22 25 28 32 39
Aarhus GF 1565 24 24.17 -0.17 52.8% 7 17 21 24 27 31 39
B 1903 1560 24 21.62 +2.38 74.8% 6 15 19 22 25 29 38
Koge BK 1560 18 20.73 -2.73 30.6% 6 14 18 21 24 28 41
Vejle BK 1558 20 22.04 -2.04 35.8% 6 15 19 22 25 29 39
B 1909 1542 22 21.44 +0.56 59.4% 6 14 19 21 24 28 38
Odense 1541 18 21.74 -3.74 23.0% 6 15 19 22 25 29 37
Frederikshavn 1481 19 20.06 -1.06 44.7% 5 13 17 20 23 27 36
Skovshoved 1464 15 17.58 -2.58 31.7% 3 11 15 18 20 25 35
AIA Tranbjerg 1384 10 16.31 -6.31 7.9% 2 10 13 16 19 23 33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AT AG B1 B1 B1 ESB FRE KC KB ODE SKO VB
AIA Tranbjerg
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.36
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
1.84
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
1.46
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.25
Aarhus GF
2-0-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
3.36
0-1-1
2.31
2-0-0
3.43
0-1-1
3.34
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.10
B 1903
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
2.75
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
3.27
0-2-0
2.12
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.80
B 1909
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.99
1-0-1
2.30
0-1-1
2.35
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
2.30
2-0-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
3.45
1-0-1
2.63
B 1913
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
2.49
0-0-2
3.50
0-0-2
2.59
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
4.02
2-0-0
3.32
Esbjerg
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
3.48
1-1-0
3.40
0-0-2
3.25
2-0-0
3.25
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
3.43
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.39
Frederikshavn
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.48
0-0-2
2.71
2-0-0
2.25
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.91
0-1-1
2.77
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.52
KB Copenhagen
1-0-1
4.29
1-1-0
3.43
0-2-0
3.62
2-0-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.88
1-0-1
3.56
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.69
Koge BK
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
2.77
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.29
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
2.72
Odense
1-0-1
3.66
1-1-0
2.41
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
2.55
0-1-1
2.31
0-1-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.76
Skovshoved
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
2.46
1-1-0
2.30
1-0-1
1.73
0-0-2
1.74
1-1-0
2.48
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.40
Vejle BK
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.12
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-2
2.36
1-0-1
3.22
0-0-2
2.06
0-0-2
3.02
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.34

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.68 +3.9
Allowed 0.52 -4.7
Differential 0.91 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%5.30%6.82%3.41%1.89%1.89%22.35%
15.30%5.30%7.58%4.17%1.89%1.89%26.14%
26.82%7.58%3.79%2.65%2.27%2.27%25.38%
33.41%4.17%2.65%0.76%0.38%11.36%
41.89%1.89%2.27%0.76%0.76%7.58%
5+1.89%1.89%2.27%0.38%0.76%7.20%
Total22.35%26.14%25.38%11.36%7.58%7.20%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.64 1.64 2.47
CV 0.89 0.89
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%45.45%
14.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%18.18%27.27%22.73%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.55 -1.68
SD 1.04 1.68 2.15
CV 1.20 0.66
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
29.09%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%50.00%13.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.73 +0.09
SD 1.59 1.52 2.54
CV 0.88 0.88
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
222.73%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total18.18%45.45%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.26 0.81 1.57
CV 0.87 0.66
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%31.82%18.18%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.05 -0.05
SD 1.85 1.99 2.79
CV 0.93 0.97
Max 6 8 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%
113.64%9.09%22.73%
218.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
49.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total45.45%9.09%22.73%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.45 +0.68
SD 1.46 1.68 2.32
CV 0.68 1.16
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
113.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
213.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+13.64%4.55%18.18%
Total50.00%31.82%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 0.82 +1.55
SD 2.04 1.10 2.50
CV 0.86 1.34
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
14.55%18.18%4.55%13.64%40.91%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total13.64%40.91%9.09%9.09%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.23 -0.91
SD 0.89 2.05 2.60
CV 0.68 0.92
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
Total18.18%22.73%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.32 1.86 +1.45
SD 2.08 1.39 2.61
CV 0.63 0.75
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%27.27%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total9.09%18.18%50.00%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.09 +0.14
SD 1.88 1.34 2.23
CV 0.84 0.64
Max 7 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%13.64%27.27%
29.09%4.55%13.64%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%18.18%40.91%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.73 -0.18
SD 1.47 1.12 1.97
CV 0.95 0.65
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total27.27%13.64%31.82%9.09%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.95 -0.91
SD 1.05 1.84 2.09
CV 1.00 0.94
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
213.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total27.27%13.64%18.18%13.64%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 2.32 -0.41
SD 1.31 2.12 2.58
CV 0.68 0.92
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 33 25.85 +7.15
2 KB Copenhagen 33 27.50 +5.50
3 B 1913 28 24.95 +3.05
4 B 1903 24 21.62 +2.38
5 B 1909 22 21.44 +0.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AIA Tranbjerg 10 16.31 -6.31
2 Odense 18 21.74 -3.74
3 Koge BK 18 20.73 -2.73
4 Skovshoved 15 17.58 -2.58
5 Vejle BK 20 22.04 -2.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1903 7 May 21 – Sep 24 1 in 231
2 B 1913 7 Apr 23 – Aug 20 1 in 158
3 Vejle BK 5 Oct 8 – Nov 26 1 in 56
4 Koge BK 4 May 14 – Aug 20 1 in 36
5 KB Copenhagen 6 May 31 – Sep 10 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AIA Tranbjerg 5 Mar 19 – Apr 23 1 in 41
2 Vejle BK 4 Apr 3 – Apr 30 1 in 32
3 B 1903 4 Oct 22 – Nov 26 1 in 31
4 B 1909 3 May 7 – May 21 1 in 15
5 Odense 4 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1903 9 May 21 – Oct 8 1 in 158
2 Esbjerg 10 Jun 4 – Oct 29 1 in 35
3 B 1913 7 Apr 23 – Aug 20 1 in 30
4 Skovshoved 4 Sep 10 – Oct 8 1 in 27
5 Koge BK 5 May 14 – Aug 27 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frederikshavn 11 May 21 – Oct 29 1 in 187
2 Aarhus GF 4 Sep 24 – Oct 22 1 in 25
3 Odense 6 Aug 27 – Oct 8 1 in 18
4 Vejle BK 4 Apr 3 – Apr 30 1 in 11
5 AIA Tranbjerg 8 Sep 10 – Nov 26 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Esbjerg21.65%19.28%15.03%11.87%9.33%6.83%5.51%3.89%2.95%1.98%1.21%0.47%
KB Copenhagen35.50%20.94%13.35%9.61%6.99%4.97%3.39%2.11%1.54%0.99%0.46%0.15%
B 191314.09%16.38%14.78%13.18%10.35%8.81%6.97%5.54%4.10%2.87%1.92%1.01%
B 19033.34%5.85%7.87%9.62%10.64%11.04%11.34%10.33%9.87%9.27%6.61%4.22%
Aarhus GF9.71%12.41%13.80%12.34%11.68%9.82%8.56%7.32%5.97%4.04%2.85%1.50%
B 19093.45%4.99%7.20%8.33%10.11%10.48%11.25%11.12%10.18%9.92%7.95%5.02%
Vejle BK3.91%6.51%7.76%9.45%9.58%11.15%11.03%10.35%10.24%8.59%7.40%4.03%
Frederikshavn1.38%2.70%4.11%5.48%7.42%8.89%9.51%11.37%12.25%13.73%13.28%9.88%
Koge BK2.67%4.16%6.13%7.55%8.82%9.67%10.50%11.74%11.69%10.89%9.45%6.73%
Odense3.82%5.72%7.61%8.73%9.82%10.32%10.89%11.49%10.29%9.12%7.59%4.60%
Skovshoved0.34%0.75%1.56%2.52%3.43%4.78%6.67%8.44%11.59%15.42%20.85%23.65%
AIA Tranbjerg0.14%0.31%0.80%1.32%1.83%3.24%4.38%6.30%9.33%13.18%20.43%38.74%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.58%
Slight Edge
47.73%12.12%40.15%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 26.37 Elo pts.
106 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.23 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.8
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
Esbjerg, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.39 * Some Luck: 3.39 to 5.08 * Lucky: 5.08 to 6.77 * Wild Swing: 6.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.94 * Close: 1.94 to 2.92 * Off: 2.92 to 3.89 * Way Off: 3.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.96 * A Surprise: 0.96 to 1.54 * Several Surprises: 1.54 to 2.12 * Many Surprises: 2.12 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.76 points
Some Luck
04.2311
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.435
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.74%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.89%
AIA Tranbjerg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.47
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Frequent
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.23
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.81
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.48
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%34%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.73
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.08
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.051
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 99.39% 0.61%
Esbjerg 98.32% 1.68%
B 1913 97.07% 2.93%
Aarhus GF 95.65% 4.35%
B 1903 89.17% 10.83%
Vejle BK 88.57% 11.43%
Odense 87.81% 12.19%
B 1909 87.03% 12.97%
Koge BK 83.82% 16.18%
Frederikshavn 76.84% 23.16%
Skovshoved 55.50% 44.50%
AIA Tranbjerg 40.83% 59.17%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1961-03-19 B 1903 W 2-0 1584 1529 56.41% 12.82% 30.78% +10.3 2
1961-03-19 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1529 1584 30.78% 12.82% 56.41% -10.3 0
1961-03-19 AIA Tranbjerg W 1-0 1540 1531 50.36% 12.85% 36.79% +6.4 2
1961-03-19 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1531 1540 36.79% 12.85% 50.36% -6.4 0
1961-03-19 Koge BK W 2-0 1546 1537 50.36% 12.85% 36.79% +12.1 2
1961-03-19 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1537 1546 36.79% 12.85% 50.36% -12.1 0
1961-03-19 B 1913 W 2-1 1553 1554 48.97% 12.85% 38.17% +6.2 2
1961-03-19 @ Frederikshavn L 1-2 1554 1553 38.17% 12.85% 48.97% -6.2 0
1961-03-19 Vejle BK L 0-2 1568 1588 46.30% 12.86% 40.84% -14.8 0
1961-03-19 @ Odense W 2-0 1588 1568 40.84% 12.86% 46.30% +14.8 2
1961-03-19 KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1521 1611 36.52% 12.83% 50.64% -6.0 0
1961-03-19 @ Skovshoved W 2-1 1611 1521 50.64% 12.83% 36.52% +6.0 2
1961-03-26 Skovshoved L 2-3 1525 1515 50.45% 12.85% 36.70% -7.6 0
1961-03-26 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-2 1515 1525 36.70% 12.85% 50.45% +7.6 2
1961-03-26 Esbjerg W 2-0 1548 1558 47.76% 12.86% 39.38% +12.8 2
1961-03-26 @ B 1913 L 0-2 1558 1548 39.38% 12.86% 47.76% -12.8 2
1961-03-26 Frederikshavn D 1-1 1519 1559 43.44% 12.86% 43.70% +0.0 1
1961-03-26 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1559 1519 43.70% 12.86% 43.44% -0.0 3
1961-03-26 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1617 1594 52.24% 12.84% 34.92% -0.5 3
1961-03-26 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1594 1617 34.92% 12.84% 52.24% +0.5 3
1961-03-26 Odense W 3-2 1525 1553 45.32% 12.86% 41.83% +6.4 2
1961-03-26 @ Koge BK L 2-3 1553 1525 41.83% 12.86% 45.32% -6.4 0
1961-03-26 B 1909 L 0-2 1603 1546 56.62% 12.82% 30.56% -17.8 2
1961-03-26 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1546 1603 30.56% 12.82% 56.62% +17.8 4
1961-03-30 B 1903 D 1-1 1545 1519 52.75% 12.84% 34.41% -0.7 3
1961-03-30 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1519 1545 34.41% 12.84% 52.75% +0.7 2
1961-03-30 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1559 1617 41.05% 12.85% 46.10% -10.3 3
1961-03-30 @ Frederikshavn W 4-2 1617 1559 46.10% 12.85% 41.05% +10.3 5
1961-03-30 Vejle BK L 0-2 1523 1585 40.35% 12.85% 46.80% -13.1 2
1961-03-30 @ Skovshoved W 2-0 1585 1523 46.80% 12.85% 40.35% +13.1 4
1961-03-31 Koge BK W 4-0 1561 1532 53.11% 12.84% 34.05% +21.4 4
1961-03-31 @ B 1913 L 0-4 1532 1561 34.05% 12.84% 53.11% -21.4 2
1961-04-03 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1598 1595 49.59% 12.85% 37.56% -7.9 4
1961-04-03 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1595 1598 37.56% 12.85% 49.59% +7.9 5
1961-04-09 Odense L 1-5 1603 1546 56.61% 12.82% 30.58% -28.2 5
1961-04-09 @ Aarhus GF W 5-1 1546 1603 30.58% 12.82% 56.61% +28.2 2
1961-04-09 KB Copenhagen L 4-5 1582 1627 42.87% 12.85% 44.28% -6.3 4
1961-04-09 @ B 1913 W 5-4 1627 1582 44.28% 12.85% 42.87% +6.3 7
1961-04-09 AIA Tranbjerg W 6-0 1545 1517 52.90% 12.84% 34.26% +31.5 5
1961-04-09 @ Esbjerg L 0-6 1517 1545 34.26% 12.84% 52.90% -31.5 0
1961-04-09 Koge BK W 2-1 1520 1510 50.43% 12.85% 36.72% +6.0 4
1961-04-09 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1510 1520 36.72% 12.85% 50.43% -6.0 2
1961-04-09 Vejle BK W 3-1 1549 1590 43.34% 12.86% 43.80% +12.2 5
1961-04-09 @ Frederikshavn L 1-3 1590 1549 43.80% 12.86% 43.34% -12.2 4
1961-04-09 B 1909 D 0-0 1510 1564 41.47% 12.85% 45.68% +0.2 3
1961-04-09 @ Skovshoved D 0-0 1564 1510 45.68% 12.85% 41.47% -0.2 5
1961-04-16 Frederikshavn L 0-2 1485 1561 38.46% 12.84% 48.70% -12.6 0
1961-04-16 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 2-0 1561 1485 48.70% 12.84% 38.46% +12.6 7
1961-04-16 B 1913 W 2-1 1526 1576 42.01% 12.85% 45.14% +7.2 6
1961-04-16 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1576 1526 45.14% 12.85% 42.01% -7.2 4
1961-04-16 B 1909 L 1-2 1504 1564 40.74% 12.85% 46.41% -6.6 2
1961-04-16 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1564 1504 46.41% 12.85% 40.74% +6.6 7
1961-04-23 B 1913 L 0-1 1473 1569 35.70% 12.83% 51.47% -6.2 0
1961-04-23 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 1-0 1569 1473 51.47% 12.83% 35.70% +6.2 6
1961-04-23 Aarhus GF L 1-3 1570 1575 48.57% 12.85% 38.57% -13.4 7
1961-04-23 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1575 1570 38.57% 12.85% 48.57% +13.4 7
1961-04-23 B 1903 D 2-2 1633 1533 61.80% 12.76% 25.44% -1.1 8
1961-04-23 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1533 1633 25.44% 12.76% 61.80% +1.1 7
1961-04-23 Skovshoved W 3-0 1498 1510 47.47% 12.86% 39.68% +18.8 4
1961-04-23 @ Koge BK L 0-3 1510 1498 39.68% 12.86% 47.47% -18.8 3
1961-04-23 Frederikshavn L 1-2 1574 1574 49.25% 12.85% 37.90% -7.8 2
1961-04-23 @ Odense W 2-1 1574 1574 37.90% 12.85% 49.25% +7.8 9
1961-04-23 Esbjerg L 0-2 1578 1576 49.40% 12.85% 37.74% -15.7 4
1961-04-23 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1576 1578 37.74% 12.85% 49.40% +15.7 7
1961-04-30 Skovshoved W 2-0 1588 1491 61.41% 12.77% 25.82% +8.8 9
1961-04-30 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1491 1588 25.82% 12.77% 61.41% -8.8 3
1961-04-30 Vejle BK W 4-2 1575 1562 50.92% 12.85% 36.23% +9.2 8
1961-04-30 @ B 1913 L 2-4 1562 1575 36.23% 12.85% 50.92% -9.2 4
1961-04-30 Odense D 0-0 1592 1567 52.58% 12.84% 34.58% -0.8 8
1961-04-30 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1567 1592 34.58% 12.84% 52.58% +0.8 3
1961-04-30 AIA Tranbjerg L 0-1 1534 1467 57.94% 12.80% 29.25% -9.7 7
1961-04-30 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1467 1534 29.25% 12.80% 57.94% +9.7 2
1961-04-30 B 1909 L 1-3 1582 1557 52.50% 12.84% 34.66% -14.4 9
1961-04-30 @ Frederikshavn W 3-1 1557 1582 34.66% 12.84% 52.50% +14.4 9
1961-05-03 Koge BK W 3-1 1632 1516 63.47% 12.74% 23.79% +7.1 10
1961-05-03 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1516 1632 23.79% 12.74% 63.47% -7.1 4
1961-05-07 KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1476 1639 27.33% 12.74% 59.92% +14.6 4
1961-05-07 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 2-4 1639 1476 59.92% 12.74% 27.33% -14.6 10
1961-05-07 Esbjerg L 0-1 1571 1591 46.40% 12.86% 40.74% -7.9 9
1961-05-07 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1591 1571 40.74% 12.86% 46.40% +7.9 10
1961-05-07 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1509 1597 36.87% 12.83% 50.30% -6.1 4
1961-05-07 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1597 1509 50.30% 12.83% 36.87% +6.0 11
1961-05-07 B 1913 L 2-3 1567 1584 46.79% 12.86% 40.35% -7.1 3
1961-05-07 @ Odense W 3-2 1584 1567 40.35% 12.86% 46.79% +7.1 10
1961-05-07 Frederikshavn W 1-0 1482 1567 37.19% 12.84% 49.97% +8.4 5
1961-05-07 @ Skovshoved L 0-1 1567 1482 49.97% 12.84% 37.19% -8.4 9
1961-05-07 B 1903 W 1-0 1553 1524 53.04% 12.84% 34.12% +6.0 6
1961-05-07 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1524 1553 34.12% 12.84% 53.04% -6.0 7
1961-05-11 Skovshoved D 2-2 1560 1491 58.22% 12.80% 28.97% -0.9 4
1961-05-11 @ Odense D 2-2 1491 1560 28.97% 12.80% 58.22% +0.9 6
1961-05-14 Koge BK L 1-3 1491 1503 47.42% 12.86% 39.72% -13.1 4
1961-05-14 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-1 1503 1491 39.72% 12.86% 47.42% +13.1 6
1961-05-14 B 1909 W 1-0 1591 1563 52.94% 12.84% 34.22% +6.0 12
1961-05-14 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1563 1591 34.22% 12.84% 52.94% -6.0 9
1961-05-14 Skovshoved W 1-0 1599 1492 62.58% 12.75% 24.67% +4.5 12
1961-05-14 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1492 1599 24.67% 12.75% 62.58% -4.5 6
1961-05-14 Odense L 0-2 1518 1559 43.35% 12.86% 43.80% -14.0 7
1961-05-14 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1559 1518 43.80% 12.86% 43.35% +14.0 6
1961-05-14 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1559 1603 42.94% 12.85% 44.21% +7.5 11
1961-05-14 @ Frederikshavn L 0-1 1603 1559 44.21% 12.85% 42.94% -7.5 11
1961-05-14 Vejle BK W 5-2 1625 1559 57.73% 12.81% 29.47% +10.5 12
1961-05-14 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-5 1559 1625 29.47% 12.81% 57.73% -10.5 6
1961-05-17 AIA Tranbjerg W 2-1 1595 1478 63.67% 12.73% 23.60% +4.0 13
1961-05-17 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1478 1595 23.60% 12.73% 63.67% -4.0 4
1961-05-21 Esbjerg W 4-1 1599 1603 48.59% 12.85% 38.55% +15.4 15
1961-05-21 @ Aarhus GF L 1-4 1603 1599 38.55% 12.85% 48.59% -15.4 12
1961-05-21 B 1903 L 1-2 1557 1504 56.18% 12.82% 31.00% -8.8 9
1961-05-21 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1504 1557 31.00% 12.82% 56.18% +8.8 9
1961-05-21 Frederikshavn W 4-1 1516 1566 42.09% 12.85% 45.06% +17.7 8
1961-05-21 @ Koge BK L 1-4 1566 1516 45.06% 12.85% 42.09% -17.7 11
1961-05-21 KB Copenhagen W 5-2 1573 1635 40.42% 12.85% 46.73% +15.8 8
1961-05-21 @ Odense L 2-5 1635 1573 46.73% 12.85% 40.42% -15.8 12
1961-05-21 B 1913 L 1-5 1487 1597 33.80% 12.81% 53.39% -17.7 6
1961-05-21 @ Skovshoved W 5-1 1597 1487 53.39% 12.81% 33.80% +17.7 14
1961-05-30 AIA Tranbjerg W 4-0 1549 1474 58.84% 12.80% 28.36% +18.2 8
1961-05-30 @ Vejle BK L 0-4 1474 1549 28.36% 12.80% 58.84% -18.2 4
1961-05-31 Odense W 4-0 1549 1589 43.42% 12.86% 43.73% +26.7 11
1961-05-31 @ B 1909 L 0-4 1589 1549 43.73% 12.86% 43.42% -26.7 8
1961-05-31 Esbjerg W 3-2 1619 1588 53.38% 12.84% 33.78% +5.3 14
1961-05-31 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1588 1619 33.78% 12.84% 53.38% -5.3 12
1961-06-03 Skovshoved W 1-0 1513 1469 55.01% 12.83% 32.17% +5.7 11
1961-06-03 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1469 1513 32.17% 12.83% 55.01% -5.7 6
1961-06-04 Odense W 2-1 1456 1563 34.24% 12.82% 52.94% +8.4 6
1961-06-04 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 1-2 1563 1456 52.94% 12.82% 34.24% -8.4 8
1961-06-04 Aarhus GF W 3-0 1615 1615 49.22% 12.85% 37.93% +18.0 16
1961-06-04 @ B 1913 L 0-3 1615 1615 37.93% 12.85% 49.22% -18.0 15
1961-06-04 Frederikshavn W 2-0 1583 1549 53.73% 12.83% 33.43% +11.1 14
1961-06-04 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1549 1583 33.43% 12.83% 53.73% -11.1 11
1961-06-04 B 1909 W 8-2 1625 1575 55.70% 12.82% 31.48% +20.0 16
1961-06-04 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-8 1575 1625 31.48% 12.82% 55.70% -19.9 11
1961-06-04 Vejle BK W 5-2 1534 1567 44.58% 12.86% 42.57% +14.6 10
1961-06-04 @ Koge BK L 2-5 1567 1534 42.57% 12.86% 44.58% -14.6 8
1961-08-20 B 1913 L 0-2 1597 1633 44.01% 12.86% 43.14% -14.2 15
1961-08-20 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1633 1597 43.14% 12.86% 44.01% +14.2 18
1961-08-20 KB Copenhagen L 0-6 1555 1645 36.62% 12.83% 50.55% -33.4 11
1961-08-20 @ B 1909 W 6-0 1645 1555 50.55% 12.83% 36.62% +33.4 18
1961-08-20 Esbjerg L 0-7 1538 1594 41.20% 12.85% 45.95% -42.9 11
1961-08-20 @ Frederikshavn W 7-0 1594 1538 45.95% 12.85% 41.20% +42.9 16
1961-08-20 AIA Tranbjerg W 2-0 1554 1464 60.66% 12.77% 26.57% +9.0 10
1961-08-20 @ Odense L 0-2 1464 1554 26.57% 12.77% 60.66% -9.0 6
1961-08-20 B 1903 L 0-4 1464 1519 41.33% 12.85% 45.81% -25.4 6
1961-08-20 @ Skovshoved W 4-0 1519 1464 45.81% 12.85% 41.33% +25.4 13
1961-08-20 Koge BK L 3-7 1552 1549 49.63% 12.85% 37.52% -19.3 8
1961-08-20 @ Vejle BK W 7-3 1549 1552 37.52% 12.85% 49.63% +19.3 12
1961-08-27 Vejle BK L 0-3 1455 1533 38.16% 12.84% 49.00% -18.1 6
1961-08-27 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-0 1533 1455 49.00% 12.84% 38.16% +18.1 10
1961-08-27 Skovshoved L 0-2 1647 1438 72.09% 12.53% 15.38% -22.7 18
1961-08-27 @ B 1913 W 2-0 1438 1647 15.38% 12.53% 72.09% +22.7 8
1961-08-27 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1637 1583 56.31% 12.82% 30.87% +8.0 18
1961-08-27 @ Esbjerg L 2-4 1583 1637 30.87% 12.82% 56.31% -8.0 15
1961-08-27 B 1909 W 2-1 1544 1522 52.20% 12.84% 34.96% +5.8 15
1961-08-27 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1522 1544 34.96% 12.84% 52.20% -5.8 11
1961-08-27 Koge BK D 1-1 1495 1568 38.79% 12.84% 48.37% +0.4 12
1961-08-27 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1568 1495 48.37% 12.84% 38.79% -0.4 13
1961-08-27 Odense W 2-0 1678 1563 63.38% 12.74% 23.88% +8.2 20
1961-08-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1563 1678 23.88% 12.74% 63.38% -8.2 10
1961-09-03 Frederikshavn W 7-0 1575 1495 59.41% 12.79% 27.80% +30.2 17
1961-09-03 @ Aarhus GF L 0-7 1495 1575 27.80% 12.79% 59.41% -30.2 12
1961-09-03 B 1913 W 4-2 1516 1625 34.03% 12.82% 53.15% +13.0 13
1961-09-03 @ B 1909 L 2-4 1625 1516 53.15% 12.82% 34.03% -13.0 18
1961-09-03 AIA Tranbjerg L 1-2 1568 1437 65.06% 12.71% 22.23% -10.2 13
1961-09-03 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1437 1568 22.23% 12.71% 65.06% +10.2 8
1961-09-03 B 1903 L 2-3 1555 1550 49.84% 12.85% 37.31% -7.5 10
1961-09-03 @ Odense W 3-2 1550 1555 37.31% 12.85% 49.84% +7.5 17
1961-09-03 Esbjerg L 1-2 1461 1645 24.98% 12.71% 62.31% -4.3 8
1961-09-03 @ Skovshoved W 2-1 1645 1461 62.31% 12.71% 24.98% +4.3 20
1961-09-03 KB Copenhagen L 3-4 1551 1686 30.64% 12.79% 56.58% -4.8 10
1961-09-03 @ Vejle BK W 4-3 1686 1551 56.58% 12.79% 30.64% +4.8 22
1961-09-10 Koge BK W 2-1 1605 1557 55.45% 12.82% 31.72% +5.3 19
1961-09-10 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1557 1605 31.72% 12.82% 55.45% -5.3 13
1961-09-10 Odense W 2-0 1612 1548 57.56% 12.81% 29.63% +10.0 20
1961-09-10 @ B 1913 L 0-2 1548 1612 29.63% 12.81% 57.56% -10.0 10
1961-09-10 B 1909 D 1-1 1649 1529 63.92% 12.73% 23.35% -1.7 21
1961-09-10 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1529 1649 23.35% 12.73% 63.92% +1.6 14
1961-09-10 Vejle BK W 3-0 1558 1546 50.72% 12.85% 36.43% +17.4 19
1961-09-10 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1546 1558 36.43% 12.85% 50.72% -17.4 10
1961-09-10 Skovshoved D 1-1 1465 1457 50.28% 12.85% 36.87% -0.5 13
1961-09-10 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1457 1465 36.87% 12.85% 50.28% +0.5 9
1961-09-10 AIA Tranbjerg W 3-1 1691 1447 74.62% 12.43% 12.96% +4.0 24
1961-09-10 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1447 1691 12.96% 12.43% 74.62% -4.0 8
1961-09-24 B 1903 L 1-2 1443 1575 31.04% 12.79% 56.17% -5.2 8
1961-09-24 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 2-1 1575 1443 56.17% 12.79% 31.04% +5.2 21
1961-09-24 Frederikshavn W 3-2 1531 1464 57.85% 12.80% 29.35% +4.7 16
1961-09-24 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1464 1531 29.35% 12.80% 57.85% -4.7 13
1961-09-24 KB Copenhagen W 3-0 1552 1695 29.71% 12.78% 57.51% +26.3 15
1961-09-24 @ Koge BK L 0-3 1695 1552 57.51% 12.78% 29.71% -26.3 24
1961-09-24 Esbjerg L 0-3 1538 1647 33.88% 12.81% 53.31% -16.3 10
1961-09-24 @ Odense W 3-0 1647 1538 53.31% 12.81% 33.88% +16.3 23
1961-09-24 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1457 1610 28.50% 12.76% 58.74% +9.8 11
1961-09-24 @ Skovshoved L 0-1 1610 1457 58.74% 12.76% 28.50% -9.8 19
1961-09-24 B 1913 L 0-2 1529 1622 36.11% 12.83% 51.06% -11.9 10
1961-09-24 @ Vejle BK W 2-0 1622 1529 51.06% 12.83% 36.11% +11.9 22
1961-09-30 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1580 1669 36.72% 12.83% 50.45% +0.6 22
1961-09-30 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1669 1580 50.45% 12.83% 36.72% -0.6 25
1961-10-01 B 1909 L 1-4 1600 1535 57.63% 12.81% 29.56% -22.2 19
1961-10-01 @ Aarhus GF W 4-1 1535 1600 29.56% 12.81% 57.63% +22.2 18
1961-10-01 AIA Tranbjerg W 4-0 1634 1438 71.02% 12.56% 16.41% +10.9 24
1961-10-01 @ B 1913 L 0-4 1438 1634 16.41% 12.56% 71.02% -10.9 8
1961-10-01 Vejle BK W 6-1 1664 1517 66.65% 12.68% 20.68% +13.8 25
1961-10-01 @ Esbjerg L 1-6 1517 1664 20.68% 12.68% 66.65% -13.9 10
1961-10-01 Odense D 1-1 1460 1521 40.42% 12.85% 46.73% +0.2 14
1961-10-01 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1521 1460 46.73% 12.85% 40.42% -0.2 11
1961-10-01 Koge BK D 2-2 1467 1578 33.66% 12.81% 53.53% +0.6 12
1961-10-01 @ Skovshoved D 2-2 1578 1467 53.53% 12.81% 33.66% -0.6 16
1961-10-08 Esbjerg L 0-5 1427 1678 18.45% 12.56% 68.99% -15.0 8
1961-10-08 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 5-0 1678 1427 68.99% 12.56% 18.45% +15.0 27
1961-10-08 Skovshoved L 0-3 1558 1468 60.64% 12.78% 26.58% -27.6 18
1961-10-08 @ B 1909 W 3-0 1468 1558 26.58% 12.78% 60.64% +27.7 14
1961-10-08 B 1913 W 3-0 1668 1645 52.35% 12.84% 34.81% +16.7 27
1961-10-08 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1645 1668 34.81% 12.84% 52.35% -16.7 24
1961-10-08 B 1903 L 2-4 1578 1581 48.75% 12.85% 38.40% -12.0 16
1961-10-08 @ Koge BK W 4-2 1581 1578 38.40% 12.85% 48.75% +12.0 24
1961-10-08 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1521 1578 41.07% 12.85% 46.08% +0.2 12
1961-10-08 @ Odense D 1-1 1578 1521 46.08% 12.85% 41.07% -0.2 20
1961-10-08 Frederikshavn W 4-1 1503 1460 54.93% 12.83% 32.25% +13.2 12
1961-10-08 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1460 1503 32.25% 12.83% 54.93% -13.2 14
1961-10-22 Vejle BK L 0-2 1578 1516 57.25% 12.81% 29.94% -18.0 20
1961-10-22 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1516 1578 29.94% 12.81% 57.25% +18.0 14
1961-10-22 Koge BK W 6-4 1530 1566 44.12% 12.86% 43.03% +9.8 20
1961-10-22 @ B 1909 L 4-6 1566 1530 43.03% 12.86% 44.12% -9.8 16
1961-10-22 B 1903 W 3-1 1628 1593 53.86% 12.83% 33.30% +9.6 26
1961-10-22 @ B 1913 L 1-3 1593 1628 33.30% 12.83% 53.86% -9.6 24
1961-10-22 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1693 1685 50.23% 12.85% 36.93% +10.5 29
1961-10-22 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1685 1693 36.93% 12.85% 50.23% -10.5 27
1961-10-22 AIA Tranbjerg D 2-2 1447 1412 53.83% 12.83% 33.33% -0.6 15
1961-10-22 @ Frederikshavn D 2-2 1412 1447 33.33% 12.83% 53.83% +0.6 9
1961-10-22 Odense L 1-3 1495 1521 45.51% 12.86% 41.63% -12.6 14
1961-10-22 @ Skovshoved W 3-1 1521 1495 41.63% 12.86% 45.51% +12.6 14
1961-10-29 Aarhus GF L 1-3 1412 1560 29.15% 12.77% 58.08% -8.5 9
1961-10-29 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-1 1560 1412 58.08% 12.77% 29.15% +8.5 22
1961-10-29 Esbjerg L 0-1 1583 1703 32.58% 12.80% 54.62% -5.8 24
1961-10-29 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1703 1583 54.62% 12.80% 32.58% +5.8 31
1961-10-29 Frederikshavn W 4-1 1674 1446 73.52% 12.47% 14.01% +6.1 29
1961-10-29 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1446 1674 14.01% 12.47% 73.52% -6.1 15
1961-10-29 B 1913 W 5-2 1556 1637 37.68% 12.84% 49.48% +16.7 18
1961-10-29 @ Koge BK L 2-5 1637 1556 49.48% 12.84% 37.68% -16.7 26
1961-10-29 B 1909 W 3-2 1534 1540 48.32% 12.85% 38.82% +6.0 16
1961-10-29 @ Odense L 2-3 1540 1534 38.82% 12.85% 48.32% -6.0 20
1961-10-29 Skovshoved W 4-3 1534 1483 56.00% 12.82% 31.18% +4.8 16
1961-10-29 @ Vejle BK L 3-4 1483 1534 31.18% 12.82% 56.00% -4.8 14
1961-11-19 KB Copenhagen L 2-5 1568 1680 33.60% 12.81% 53.59% -11.8 22
1961-11-19 @ Aarhus GF W 5-2 1680 1568 53.59% 12.81% 33.60% +11.8 31
1961-11-19 Vejle BK L 1-3 1534 1539 48.44% 12.85% 38.71% -13.3 20
1961-11-19 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1539 1534 38.71% 12.85% 48.44% +13.4 18
1961-11-19 B 1913 L 0-1 1709 1621 60.40% 12.78% 26.82% -10.0 31
1961-11-19 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1621 1709 26.82% 12.78% 60.40% +10.0 28
1961-11-19 B 1903 W 2-1 1440 1577 30.36% 12.78% 56.86% +8.9 17
1961-11-19 @ Frederikshavn L 1-2 1577 1440 56.86% 12.78% 30.36% -9.0 24
1961-11-19 Koge BK W 1-0 1540 1573 44.54% 12.86% 42.60% +7.3 18
1961-11-19 @ Odense L 0-1 1573 1540 42.60% 12.86% 44.54% -7.3 18
1961-11-19 AIA Tranbjerg D 0-0 1478 1404 58.72% 12.80% 28.49% -1.3 15
1961-11-19 @ Skovshoved D 0-0 1404 1478 28.49% 12.80% 58.72% +1.3 10
1961-11-26 B 1909 L 1-6 1405 1520 33.18% 12.81% 54.01% -21.3 10
1961-11-26 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 6-1 1520 1405 54.01% 12.81% 33.18% +21.3 22
1961-11-26 Frederikshavn L 0-3 1631 1449 69.85% 12.60% 17.55% -31.8 28
1961-11-26 @ B 1913 W 3-0 1449 1631 17.55% 12.60% 69.85% +31.8 19
1961-11-26 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1569 1557 50.80% 12.85% 36.36% -8.0 24
1961-11-26 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1557 1569 36.36% 12.85% 50.80% +8.0 24
1961-11-26 Skovshoved W 7-1 1692 1476 72.59% 12.51% 14.90% +12.0 33
1961-11-26 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-7 1476 1692 14.90% 12.51% 72.59% -12.0 15
1961-11-26 Esbjerg L 1-2 1565 1699 30.87% 12.79% 56.34% -5.2 18
1961-11-26 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1699 1565 56.34% 12.79% 30.87% +5.2 33
1961-11-26 Odense W 2-1 1552 1547 49.88% 12.85% 37.27% +6.1 20
1961-11-26 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1547 1552 37.27% 12.85% 49.88% -6.1 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1961-08-27 15.38% Skovshoved 1438 2 @ B 1913 1647 0
2 1961-11-26 17.55% Frederikshavn 1449 3 @ B 1913 1631 0
3 1961-09-03 22.23% AIA Tranbjerg 1437 2 @ Koge BK 1568 1
4 1961-10-08 26.58% Skovshoved 1468 3 @ B 1909 1558 0
5 1961-11-19 26.82% B 1913 1621 1 @ Esbjerg 1709 0
6 1961-05-07 27.33% @ AIA Tranbjerg 1476 4 KB Copenhagen 1639 2
7 1961-09-24 28.50% @ Skovshoved 1457 1 Aarhus GF 1610 0
8 1961-04-30 29.25% AIA Tranbjerg 1467 1 @ B 1903 1534 0
9 1961-10-01 29.56% B 1909 1535 4 @ Aarhus GF 1600 1
10 1961-09-24 29.71% @ Koge BK 1552 3 KB Copenhagen 1695 0
11 1961-10-22 29.94% Vejle BK 1516 2 @ Aarhus GF 1578 0
12 1961-11-19 30.36% @ Frederikshavn 1440 2 B 1903 1577 1
13 1961-03-26 30.56% B 1909 1546 2 @ Vejle BK 1603 0
14 1961-04-09 30.58% Odense 1546 5 @ Aarhus GF 1603 1
15 1961-05-21 31.00% B 1903 1504 2 @ B 1909 1557 1
16 1961-09-03 34.03% @ B 1909 1516 4 B 1913 1625 2
17 1961-06-04 34.24% @ AIA Tranbjerg 1456 2 Odense 1563 1
18 1961-04-30 34.66% B 1909 1557 3 @ Frederikshavn 1582 1
19 1961-11-26 36.36% Aarhus GF 1557 2 @ B 1903 1569 1
20 1961-03-26 36.70% Skovshoved 1515 3 @ AIA Tranbjerg 1525 2
21 1961-05-07 37.19% @ Skovshoved 1482 1 Frederikshavn 1567 0
22 1961-09-03 37.31% B 1903 1550 3 @ Odense 1555 2
23 1961-08-20 37.52% Koge BK 1549 7 @ Vejle BK 1552 3
24 1961-04-03 37.56% Aarhus GF 1595 2 @ Vejle BK 1598 1
25 1961-10-29 37.68% @ Koge BK 1556 5 B 1913 1637 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-08-20 42.95 Esbjerg 7 1594 45.95% @ Frederikshavn 0 1538 41.20% 12.85%
2 1961-08-20 33.44 KB Copenhagen 6 1645 50.55% @ B 1909 0 1555 36.62% 12.83%
3 1961-11-26 31.85 Frederikshavn 3 1449 17.55% @ B 1913 0 1631 69.85% 12.60%
4 1961-04-09 31.52 @ Esbjerg 6 1545 52.90% AIA Tranbjerg 0 1517 34.26% 12.84%
5 1961-09-03 30.22 @ Aarhus GF 7 1575 59.41% Frederikshavn 0 1495 27.80% 12.79%
6 1961-04-09 28.17 Odense 5 1546 30.58% @ Aarhus GF 1 1603 56.61% 12.82%
7 1961-10-08 27.65 Skovshoved 3 1468 26.58% @ B 1909 0 1558 60.64% 12.78%
8 1961-05-31 26.70 @ B 1909 4 1549 43.42% Odense 0 1589 43.73% 12.86%
9 1961-09-24 26.26 @ Koge BK 3 1552 29.71% KB Copenhagen 0 1695 57.51% 12.78%
10 1961-08-20 25.42 B 1903 4 1519 45.81% @ Skovshoved 0 1464 41.33% 12.85%
11 1961-08-27 22.65 Skovshoved 2 1438 15.38% @ B 1913 0 1647 72.09% 12.53%
12 1961-10-01 22.20 B 1909 4 1535 29.56% @ Aarhus GF 1 1600 57.63% 12.81%
13 1961-03-31 21.41 @ B 1913 4 1561 53.11% Koge BK 0 1532 34.05% 12.84%
14 1961-11-26 21.35 B 1909 6 1520 54.01% @ AIA Tranbjerg 1 1405 33.18% 12.81%
15 1961-06-04 19.96 @ KB Copenhagen 8 1625 55.70% B 1909 2 1575 31.48% 12.82%
16 1961-08-20 19.29 Koge BK 7 1549 37.52% @ Vejle BK 3 1552 49.63% 12.85%
17 1961-04-23 18.77 @ Koge BK 3 1498 47.47% Skovshoved 0 1510 39.68% 12.86%
18 1961-05-30 18.16 @ Vejle BK 4 1549 58.84% AIA Tranbjerg 0 1474 28.36% 12.80%
19 1961-08-27 18.14 Vejle BK 3 1533 49.00% @ AIA Tranbjerg 0 1455 38.16% 12.84%
20 1961-06-04 18.04 @ B 1913 3 1615 49.22% Aarhus GF 0 1615 37.93% 12.85%
21 1961-10-22 18.01 Vejle BK 2 1516 29.94% @ Aarhus GF 0 1578 57.25% 12.81%
22 1961-03-26 17.82 B 1909 2 1546 30.56% @ Vejle BK 0 1603 56.62% 12.82%
23 1961-05-21 17.72 B 1913 5 1597 53.39% @ Skovshoved 1 1487 33.80% 12.81%
24 1961-05-21 17.70 @ Koge BK 4 1516 42.09% Frederikshavn 1 1566 45.06% 12.85%
25 1961-09-10 17.41 @ B 1903 3 1558 50.72% Vejle BK 0 1546 36.43% 12.85%