1960 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Aarhus GF

32 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1956-57

Relegated

Frem

12 pts

AB Gladsaxe · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Aarhus GF

7.91 points above expected

32 points · 24.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Frem

8.53 points below expected

12 points · 20.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aarhus GF Champion 22 13 6 3 32 52 32 +20 24.09 +7.91
2 KB Copenhagen 22 13 3 6 29 63 33 +30 25.77 +3.23
3 Vejle BK 22 12 5 5 29 52 35 +17 24.48 +4.52
4 Odense 22 10 6 6 26 47 39 +8 24.86 +1.14
5 Frederikshavn 22 8 8 6 24 32 30 +2 21.65 +2.35
6 Esbjerg 22 7 8 7 22 26 30 -4 22.00 +0.00
7 B 1913 22 8 3 11 19 41 40 +1 22.00 -3.00
8 B 1903 22 6 6 10 18 21 29 -8 19.58 -1.58
9 B 1909 22 6 6 10 18 37 46 -9 23.31 -5.31
10 Skovshoved 22 5 8 9 18 25 39 -14 17.90 +0.10
11 AB Gladsaxe Relegated 22 6 5 11 17 32 46 -14 17.83 -0.83
12 Frem Relegated 22 4 4 14 12 33 62 -29 20.53 -8.53

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1625 29 25.77 +3.23 83.4% 13 19 23 26 28 32 40
Vejle BK 1564 29 24.48 +4.52 90.5% 10 18 22 24 27 31 37
Aarhus GF 1553 32 24.09 +7.91 98.7% 10 18 22 24 27 30 37
Odense 1508 26 24.86 +1.14 65.8% 10 18 22 25 27 31 38
Frederikshavn 1469 24 21.65 +2.35 77.2% 7 15 19 22 24 28 36
B 1913 1459 19 22.00 -3.00 25.7% 8 16 19 22 25 28 37
Esbjerg 1453 22 22.00 +0.00 55.1% 7 16 19 22 25 28 36
B 1909 1425 18 23.31 -5.31 11.0% 8 17 21 23 26 30 38
AB Gladsaxe 1409 17 17.83 -0.83 46.9% 5 12 15 18 20 24 34
B 1903 1402 18 19.58 -1.58 38.6% 6 13 17 20 22 26 35
Skovshoved 1389 18 17.90 +0.10 56.5% 4 12 15 18 20 24 34
Frem 1338 12 20.53 -8.53 1.9% 6 14 18 21 23 27 36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B1 B1 ESB FRE FRE KC ODE SKO VB
AB Gladsaxe
0-1-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.30
1-0-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
2.00
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
1.71
0-1-1
1.59
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.04
Aarhus GF
1-1-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.29
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.73
0-2-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.91
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
2.38
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.53
1-1-0
2.53
B 1903
1-1-0
2.94
0-0-2
2.18
1-1-0
2.22
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.11
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.06
B 1909
1-0-1
3.16
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
3.24
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
3.03
0-1-1
3.09
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.69
0-1-1
3.48
1-0-1
2.78
B 1913
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.62
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.95
1-0-1
1.95
1-0-1
2.53
2-0-0
3.16
0-0-2
2.33
Esbjerg
1-0-1
3.44
0-2-0
2.27
1-1-0
3.09
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.50
0-2-0
2.44
2-0-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.31
Frederikshavn
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
3.04
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
2.34
Frem
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
2.30
2-0-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
3.30
0-1-1
2.23
KB Copenhagen
1-1-0
3.76
0-0-2
3.08
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
3.52
2-0-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
2.87
Odense
1-1-0
3.90
1-0-1
2.58
2-0-0
3.36
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.93
0-2-0
3.02
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
3.68
0-0-2
2.83
Skovshoved
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
2.70
1-1-0
1.98
0-0-2
2.30
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.16
0-0-2
1.79
1-1-0
1.80
0-2-0
2.00
Vejle BK
1-0-1
3.44
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
3.40
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.12
1-1-0
3.23
1-0-1
2.58
2-0-0
2.62
0-2-0
3.46

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.55 +3.5
Allowed 0.43 -4.2
Differential 0.90 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%5.68%4.55%3.03%2.27%1.52%20.08%
15.68%14.39%5.30%4.55%1.52%1.52%32.95%
24.55%5.30%6.82%2.65%1.14%1.14%21.59%
33.03%4.55%2.65%1.52%0.76%1.14%13.64%
42.27%1.52%1.14%0.76%0.38%6.06%
5+1.52%1.52%1.14%1.14%0.38%5.68%
Total20.08%32.95%21.59%13.64%6.06%5.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.55 1.55 2.28
CV 0.89 0.89
Max 10 10 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
113.64%9.09%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
313.64%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total4.55%40.91%22.73%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.09 -0.64
SD 1.47 1.44 2.50
CV 1.01 0.69
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%9.09%18.18%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.45 +0.91
SD 1.73 1.22 1.87
CV 0.73 0.84
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
113.64%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%50.00%
2
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%40.91%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.32 -0.36
SD 1.09 1.25 1.94
CV 1.14 0.95
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.09 -0.41
SD 1.52 1.69 2.32
CV 0.91 0.81
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%13.64%18.18%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.82 +0.05
SD 1.36 1.62 2.46
CV 0.73 0.89
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
113.64%18.18%4.55%13.64%50.00%
24.55%9.09%13.64%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.36 -0.18
SD 0.80 1.05 1.37
CV 0.67 0.77
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
113.64%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%50.00%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
4
5+
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.36 +0.09
SD 1.01 1.29 1.60
CV 0.69 0.95
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%27.27%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%18.18%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.82 -1.32
SD 1.26 2.08 2.17
CV 0.84 0.74
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
29.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%27.27%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
Total27.27%31.82%27.27%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.50 +1.36
SD 2.47 1.57 2.89
CV 0.86 1.04
Max 10 6 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
113.64%4.55%18.18%
213.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total22.73%31.82%18.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.77 +0.36
SD 1.67 1.82 2.85
CV 0.78 1.03
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
118.18%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total22.73%36.36%13.64%9.09%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.77 -0.64
SD 1.08 1.72 2.19
CV 0.95 0.97
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%31.82%
29.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total18.18%36.36%22.73%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.59 +0.77
SD 1.56 1.26 1.80
CV 0.66 0.79
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aarhus GF 32 24.09 +7.91
2 Vejle BK 29 24.48 +4.52
3 KB Copenhagen 29 25.77 +3.23
4 Frederikshavn 24 21.65 +2.35
5 Odense 26 24.86 +1.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Frem 12 20.53 -8.53
2 B 1909 18 23.31 -5.31
3 B 1913 19 22.00 -3.00
4 B 1903 18 19.58 -1.58
5 AB Gladsaxe 17 17.83 -0.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vejle BK 7 Jun 12 – Oct 30 1 in 362
2 Aarhus GF 5 Jun 12 – Oct 9 1 in 93
3 AB Gladsaxe 2 Sep 18 – Sep 25 1 in 22
4 Skovshoved 2 Oct 16 – Oct 30 1 in 21
5 B 1903 2 May 1 – May 5 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 4 Oct 9 – Nov 6 1 in 69
2 AB Gladsaxe 4 Apr 24 – May 12 1 in 66
3 Frem 5 Oct 16 – Nov 20 1 in 56
4 B 1913 3 Apr 3 – Apr 17 1 in 42
5 Skovshoved 3 Nov 6 – Nov 20 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skovshoved 6 May 12 – Sep 17 1 in 51
2 Vejle BK 11 May 13 – Oct 30 1 in 50
3 Aarhus GF 10 Jun 12 – Nov 20 1 in 43
4 B 1903 6 May 1 – Jun 6 1 in 22
5 AB Gladsaxe 4 Sep 18 – Oct 9 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 10 Jun 1 – Nov 6 1 in 89
2 Esbjerg 9 May 29 – Oct 30 1 in 44
3 Frem 10 Jun 12 – Nov 20 1 in 44
4 B 1903 10 Jun 6 – Nov 13 1 in 30
5 AB Gladsaxe 10 Apr 10 – Jun 12 1 in 26

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Aarhus GF14.00%14.30%13.12%12.28%10.61%9.19%7.71%6.29%5.02%3.61%2.55%1.32%
KB Copenhagen27.88%18.04%13.58%10.43%8.81%6.58%4.85%3.88%2.80%1.88%0.91%0.36%
Vejle BK16.03%14.95%13.77%11.64%10.56%9.19%7.24%5.79%4.74%3.01%2.06%1.02%
Odense17.17%16.18%13.61%12.45%10.19%7.98%7.04%5.69%3.78%3.15%1.74%1.02%
Frederikshavn4.00%5.80%7.60%8.91%10.04%10.60%11.06%10.63%9.91%8.77%7.63%5.05%
Esbjerg4.59%7.12%7.87%8.98%9.73%10.43%9.99%10.80%10.13%8.91%7.05%4.40%
B 19134.49%6.62%8.26%9.29%10.53%10.72%10.85%10.38%9.83%8.27%6.47%4.29%
B 19031.14%2.00%3.55%4.45%6.10%7.58%9.32%10.81%13.11%14.02%14.29%13.63%
B 19098.02%10.11%11.21%10.92%10.45%9.76%9.42%8.69%7.87%6.43%4.41%2.71%
Skovshoved0.40%0.78%1.41%2.15%3.29%4.89%6.46%8.42%10.74%14.74%20.22%26.50%
AB Gladsaxe0.37%0.87%1.45%2.29%3.17%4.42%6.01%8.25%10.69%14.52%20.10%27.86%
Frem1.91%3.23%4.57%6.21%6.52%8.66%10.05%10.37%11.38%12.69%12.57%11.84%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.64%
Slight Edge
43.94%25.76%30.30%
Elo Value
Home Edge
119 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
047.67300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.1
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
14%
Aarhus GF, 4th of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.07 * Some Luck: 3.07 to 4.61 * Lucky: 4.61 to 6.14 * Wild Swing: 6.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.03 * Close: 2.03 to 3.04 * Off: 3.04 to 4.06 * Way Off: 4.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.05 * A Surprise: 1.05 to 1.69 * Several Surprises: 1.69 to 2.32 * Many Surprises: 2.32 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.22 points
Some Luck
03.8410
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Pinpoint
02.546
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.70%
Aarhus GF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.86%
Frem
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.29
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.53
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.057
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 98.73% 1.27%
Odense 97.24% 2.76%
Vejle BK 96.92% 3.08%
Aarhus GF 96.13% 3.87%
B 1909 92.88% 7.12%
B 1913 89.24% 10.76%
Esbjerg 88.55% 11.45%
Frederikshavn 87.32% 12.68%
Frem 75.59% 24.41%
B 1903 72.08% 27.92%
Skovshoved 53.28% 46.72%
AB Gladsaxe 52.04% 47.96%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1960-03-20 KB Copenhagen W 6-2 1469 1510 40.59% 27.32% 32.09% +16.7 2
1960-03-20 @ Aarhus GF L 2-6 1510 1469 32.09% 27.32% 40.59% -16.7 0
1960-03-20 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1499 1441 52.77% 26.67% 20.56% +4.4 2
1960-03-20 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1441 1499 20.56% 26.67% 52.77% -4.4 0
1960-03-20 Odense D 1-1 1477 1499 43.24% 27.28% 29.48% -0.5 1
1960-03-20 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1499 1477 29.48% 27.28% 43.24% +0.5 1
1960-03-20 B 1913 L 0-4 1431 1449 43.68% 27.27% 29.04% -29.8 0
1960-03-20 @ B 1903 W 4-0 1449 1431 29.04% 27.27% 43.68% +29.8 2
1960-03-20 Frederikshavn L 1-3 1463 1449 47.77% 27.10% 25.14% -14.6 0
1960-03-20 @ Frem W 3-1 1449 1463 25.14% 27.10% 47.77% +14.6 2
1960-03-20 Skovshoved D 2-2 1496 1411 55.69% 26.29% 18.02% -1.2 1
1960-03-20 @ Vejle BK D 2-2 1411 1496 18.02% 26.29% 55.69% +1.2 1
1960-03-26 Odense W 3-0 1479 1499 43.37% 27.28% 29.35% +16.9 4
1960-03-26 @ B 1913 L 0-3 1499 1479 29.35% 27.28% 43.37% -16.9 1
1960-03-26 B 1903 L 0-4 1412 1401 47.28% 27.12% 25.60% -31.8 1
1960-03-26 @ Skovshoved W 4-0 1401 1412 25.60% 27.12% 47.28% +31.8 2
1960-03-27 Frem L 2-3 1437 1449 44.44% 27.25% 28.31% -7.5 0
1960-03-27 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1449 1437 28.31% 27.25% 44.44% +7.6 2
1960-03-27 Vejle BK W 2-1 1503 1495 47.02% 27.14% 25.85% +5.3 4
1960-03-27 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1495 1503 25.85% 27.14% 47.02% -5.3 1
1960-03-27 Aarhus GF L 2-3 1464 1485 43.21% 27.28% 29.51% -7.4 2
1960-03-27 @ Frederikshavn W 3-2 1485 1464 29.51% 27.28% 43.21% +7.4 4
1960-03-27 Esbjerg W 3-1 1493 1477 48.02% 27.08% 24.90% +8.9 2
1960-03-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1477 1493 24.90% 27.08% 48.02% -8.8 1
1960-04-02 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1433 1502 36.72% 27.30% 35.98% -0.0 3
1960-04-02 @ B 1903 D 0-0 1502 1433 35.98% 27.30% 36.72% +0.0 3
1960-04-03 Esbjerg D 0-0 1493 1468 49.03% 27.01% 23.96% -1.1 5
1960-04-03 @ Aarhus GF D 0-0 1468 1493 23.96% 27.01% 49.03% +1.1 2
1960-04-03 Vejle BK W 2-0 1429 1490 37.90% 27.31% 34.79% +13.2 2
1960-04-03 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1490 1429 34.79% 27.31% 37.90% -13.2 1
1960-04-03 Frederikshavn L 1-2 1496 1456 50.72% 26.88% 22.41% -8.9 4
1960-04-03 @ B 1913 W 2-1 1456 1496 22.41% 26.88% 50.72% +8.9 4
1960-04-03 Frem W 2-0 1482 1456 49.17% 27.00% 23.83% +9.9 3
1960-04-03 @ Odense L 0-2 1456 1482 23.83% 27.00% 49.17% -9.9 2
1960-04-03 B 1909 D 0-0 1380 1508 28.75% 26.94% 44.31% +0.7 2
1960-04-03 @ Skovshoved D 0-0 1508 1380 44.31% 26.94% 28.75% -0.7 5
1960-04-10 Skovshoved W 1-0 1469 1381 55.97% 26.25% 17.79% +4.1 4
1960-04-10 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1381 1469 17.79% 26.25% 55.97% -4.1 2
1960-04-10 B 1903 W 1-0 1465 1433 49.89% 26.95% 23.17% +5.1 6
1960-04-10 @ Frederikshavn L 0-1 1433 1465 23.17% 26.95% 49.89% -5.1 3
1960-04-10 B 1909 W 3-2 1447 1508 37.80% 27.31% 34.89% +6.3 4
1960-04-10 @ Frem L 2-3 1508 1447 34.89% 27.31% 37.80% -6.3 5
1960-04-10 AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1502 1442 52.99% 26.65% 20.37% +16.5 5
1960-04-10 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1442 1502 20.37% 26.65% 52.99% -16.5 2
1960-04-10 Aarhus GF W 4-0 1492 1492 46.08% 27.19% 26.74% +20.5 5
1960-04-10 @ Odense L 0-4 1492 1492 26.74% 27.19% 46.08% -20.5 5
1960-04-10 B 1913 W 3-1 1477 1487 44.68% 27.24% 28.07% +9.7 3
1960-04-10 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1487 1477 28.07% 27.24% 44.68% -9.7 4
1960-04-17 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1471 1426 51.39% 26.82% 21.80% -0.9 6
1960-04-17 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1426 1471 21.80% 26.82% 51.39% +0.9 3
1960-04-17 Frem L 1-4 1477 1453 48.97% 27.02% 24.01% -21.1 4
1960-04-17 @ B 1913 W 4-1 1453 1477 24.01% 27.02% 48.97% +21.1 6
1960-04-17 Odense L 0-2 1428 1513 34.48% 27.24% 38.27% -13.1 3
1960-04-17 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1513 1428 38.27% 27.24% 34.48% +13.1 7
1960-04-18 Esbjerg W 2-0 1502 1473 49.44% 26.98% 23.57% +9.8 7
1960-04-18 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1473 1502 23.57% 26.98% 49.44% -9.8 4
1960-04-18 Vejle BK L 0-2 1470 1486 43.96% 27.26% 28.77% -15.8 6
1960-04-18 @ Frederikshavn W 2-0 1486 1470 28.77% 27.26% 43.96% +15.8 5
1960-04-24 B 1903 W 1-0 1470 1415 52.50% 26.70% 20.80% +4.7 8
1960-04-24 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1415 1470 20.80% 26.70% 52.50% -4.7 3
1960-04-24 B 1913 L 0-4 1427 1456 42.20% 27.30% 30.50% -28.9 3
1960-04-24 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1456 1427 30.50% 27.30% 42.20% +28.9 6
1960-04-24 KB Copenhagen W 5-2 1511 1519 45.07% 27.23% 27.70% +11.8 9
1960-04-24 @ B 1909 L 2-5 1519 1511 27.70% 27.23% 45.07% -11.8 5
1960-04-24 Frederikshavn W 1-0 1463 1455 47.08% 27.14% 25.79% +5.6 6
1960-04-24 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1455 1463 25.79% 27.14% 47.08% -5.6 6
1960-04-24 Frem D 1-1 1376 1474 32.76% 27.18% 40.06% +0.3 3
1960-04-24 @ Skovshoved D 1-1 1474 1376 40.06% 27.18% 32.76% -0.3 7
1960-04-24 Odense W 4-1 1502 1526 42.92% 27.29% 29.79% +14.4 7
1960-04-24 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1526 1502 29.79% 27.29% 42.92% -14.4 7
1960-04-27 Skovshoved W 1-0 1507 1377 59.89% 25.52% 14.59% +3.5 7
1960-04-27 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1377 1507 14.59% 25.52% 59.89% -3.4 3
1960-04-30 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1474 1510 41.21% 27.32% 31.48% -11.6 7
1960-04-30 @ Frem W 4-2 1510 1474 31.48% 27.32% 41.21% +11.6 9
1960-05-01 B 1913 W 2-1 1469 1485 43.95% 27.26% 28.79% +5.7 8
1960-05-01 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1485 1469 28.79% 27.26% 43.95% -5.7 6
1960-05-01 Vejle BK W 3-1 1410 1516 31.60% 27.12% 41.28% +13.0 5
1960-05-01 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1516 1410 41.28% 27.12% 31.60% -13.0 7
1960-05-01 AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1449 1398 52.06% 26.75% 21.20% +13.0 8
1960-05-01 @ Frederikshavn L 0-3 1398 1449 21.20% 26.75% 52.06% -13.0 3
1960-05-01 B 1909 W 3-1 1512 1523 44.51% 27.25% 28.24% +9.8 9
1960-05-01 @ Odense L 1-3 1523 1512 28.24% 27.25% 44.51% -9.8 9
1960-05-01 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1373 1475 32.21% 27.15% 40.64% +0.3 4
1960-05-01 @ Skovshoved D 1-1 1475 1373 40.64% 27.15% 32.21% -0.3 9
1960-05-05 B 1903 L 0-1 1462 1423 50.66% 26.88% 22.46% -9.4 7
1960-05-05 @ Frem W 1-0 1423 1462 22.46% 26.88% 50.66% +9.4 7
1960-05-08 Esbjerg L 1-2 1385 1475 33.78% 27.22% 39.00% -6.4 3
1960-05-08 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1475 1385 39.00% 27.22% 33.78% +6.4 10
1960-05-08 Skovshoved W 5-0 1479 1374 57.63% 25.97% 16.40% +16.9 8
1960-05-08 @ B 1913 L 0-5 1374 1479 16.40% 25.97% 57.63% -16.9 4
1960-05-08 Vejle BK W 2-1 1522 1503 48.25% 27.07% 24.68% +5.1 11
1960-05-08 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1503 1522 24.68% 27.07% 48.25% -5.1 7
1960-05-08 Frederikshavn W 2-1 1521 1462 52.92% 26.65% 20.43% +4.4 11
1960-05-08 @ Odense L 1-2 1462 1521 20.43% 26.65% 52.92% -4.4 8
1960-05-12 Skovshoved L 0-3 1378 1357 48.63% 27.04% 24.33% -24.9 3
1960-05-12 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-0 1357 1378 24.33% 27.04% 48.63% +24.9 6
1960-05-13 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1496 1475 48.63% 27.04% 24.33% +5.3 10
1960-05-13 @ B 1913 L 0-1 1475 1496 24.33% 27.04% 48.63% -5.3 9
1960-05-13 Esbjerg D 1-1 1433 1481 39.58% 27.32% 33.09% -0.2 8
1960-05-13 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1481 1433 33.09% 27.32% 39.58% +0.2 11
1960-05-13 B 1909 D 1-1 1458 1513 38.60% 27.32% 34.08% -0.2 9
1960-05-13 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1513 1458 34.08% 27.32% 38.60% +0.2 10
1960-05-13 Odense D 1-1 1527 1526 46.16% 27.18% 26.66% -0.8 12
1960-05-13 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1526 1527 26.66% 27.18% 46.16% +0.8 12
1960-05-13 Frem D 1-1 1498 1453 51.44% 26.81% 21.75% -1.2 8
1960-05-13 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1453 1498 21.75% 26.81% 51.44% +1.2 8
1960-05-21 B 1913 W 2-0 1526 1501 49.02% 27.01% 23.97% +9.9 14
1960-05-21 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1501 1526 23.97% 27.01% 49.02% -9.9 10
1960-05-22 Vejle BK D 2-2 1469 1497 42.37% 27.30% 30.32% -0.3 10
1960-05-22 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1497 1469 30.32% 27.30% 42.37% +0.3 9
1960-05-22 Odense D 1-1 1353 1526 23.65% 26.41% 49.94% +1.1 4
1960-05-22 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1526 1353 49.94% 26.41% 23.65% -1.1 13
1960-05-22 B 1903 L 0-1 1514 1432 55.23% 26.36% 18.41% -10.2 10
1960-05-22 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1432 1514 18.41% 26.36% 55.23% +10.2 10
1960-05-22 Frem W 2-0 1481 1454 49.34% 26.99% 23.67% +9.8 13
1960-05-22 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1454 1481 23.67% 26.99% 49.34% -9.8 8
1960-05-22 Frederikshavn D 0-0 1382 1458 35.73% 27.28% 36.99% +0.1 7
1960-05-22 @ Skovshoved D 0-0 1458 1382 36.99% 27.28% 35.73% -0.0 10
1960-05-28 B 1913 W 4-0 1503 1491 47.46% 27.11% 25.42% +19.7 12
1960-05-28 @ B 1909 L 0-4 1491 1503 25.42% 27.11% 47.46% -19.7 10
1960-05-29 AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1443 1354 55.93% 26.25% 17.82% +4.1 12
1960-05-29 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1354 1443 17.82% 26.25% 55.93% -4.1 4
1960-05-29 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1458 1536 35.36% 27.27% 37.38% +7.4 12
1960-05-29 @ Frederikshavn L 0-1 1536 1458 37.38% 27.27% 35.36% -7.4 14
1960-05-29 Aarhus GF L 2-3 1444 1469 42.78% 27.29% 29.93% -7.3 8
1960-05-29 @ Frem W 3-2 1469 1444 29.93% 27.29% 42.78% +7.3 12
1960-05-29 Skovshoved L 2-3 1525 1382 61.07% 25.25% 13.67% -10.0 13
1960-05-29 @ Odense W 3-2 1382 1525 13.67% 25.25% 61.07% +10.0 9
1960-05-29 Esbjerg W 2-1 1498 1491 46.79% 27.15% 26.06% +5.3 11
1960-05-29 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1491 1498 26.06% 27.15% 46.79% -5.3 13
1960-06-01 B 1909 W 4-1 1476 1523 39.81% 27.32% 32.86% +15.5 14
1960-06-01 @ Aarhus GF L 1-4 1523 1476 32.86% 27.32% 39.81% -15.5 12
1960-06-05 Frederikshavn L 2-3 1492 1465 49.26% 27.00% 23.75% -8.2 14
1960-06-05 @ Aarhus GF W 3-2 1465 1492 23.75% 27.00% 49.26% +8.2 14
1960-06-05 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1486 1529 40.36% 27.32% 32.32% -12.8 13
1960-06-05 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1529 1486 32.32% 27.32% 40.36% +12.8 16
1960-06-05 B 1913 W 3-2 1437 1472 41.42% 27.32% 31.26% +5.8 10
1960-06-05 @ Frem L 2-3 1472 1437 31.26% 27.32% 41.42% -5.8 10
1960-06-05 Vejle BK D 1-1 1392 1503 30.96% 27.09% 41.95% +0.4 10
1960-06-05 @ Skovshoved D 1-1 1503 1392 41.95% 27.09% 30.96% -0.4 12
1960-06-06 B 1909 D 1-1 1447 1508 37.85% 27.31% 34.83% -0.1 13
1960-06-06 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1508 1447 34.83% 27.31% 37.85% +0.1 13
1960-06-06 AB Gladsaxe W 4-2 1515 1350 62.86% 24.79% 12.35% +4.3 15
1960-06-06 @ Odense L 2-4 1350 1515 12.35% 24.79% 62.86% -4.3 4
1960-06-12 Aarhus GF L 0-2 1346 1483 27.67% 26.85% 45.48% -11.0 4
1960-06-12 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1483 1346 45.48% 26.85% 27.67% +11.0 16
1960-06-12 Esbjerg W 3-0 1466 1473 45.08% 27.23% 27.69% +16.1 12
1960-06-12 @ B 1913 L 0-3 1473 1466 27.69% 27.23% 45.08% -16.1 13
1960-06-12 Frem D 1-1 1473 1442 49.71% 26.96% 23.33% -1.1 15
1960-06-12 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1442 1473 23.33% 26.96% 49.71% +1.1 11
1960-06-12 Odense D 2-2 1392 1520 28.88% 26.95% 44.17% +0.4 11
1960-06-12 @ Skovshoved D 2-2 1520 1392 44.17% 26.95% 28.88% -0.4 16
1960-06-12 B 1909 W 5-3 1502 1508 45.32% 27.22% 27.46% +8.1 14
1960-06-12 @ Vejle BK L 3-5 1508 1502 27.46% 27.22% 45.32% -8.1 13
1960-06-15 B 1903 W 2-0 1541 1447 56.61% 26.15% 17.25% +7.5 18
1960-06-15 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1447 1541 17.25% 26.15% 56.61% -7.5 13
1960-09-17 B 1909 D 1-1 1482 1500 43.75% 27.27% 28.98% -0.6 13
1960-09-17 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1500 1482 28.98% 27.27% 43.75% +0.6 14
1960-09-17 Skovshoved L 1-2 1444 1393 52.01% 26.75% 21.23% -9.1 11
1960-09-17 @ Frem W 2-1 1393 1444 21.23% 26.75% 52.01% +9.1 13
1960-09-18 Frederikshavn W 3-1 1335 1472 27.71% 26.85% 45.44% +14.0 6
1960-09-18 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1472 1335 45.44% 26.85% 27.71% -14.0 15
1960-09-18 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1549 1495 52.41% 26.71% 20.88% -9.2 18
1960-09-18 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1495 1549 20.88% 26.71% 52.41% +9.2 18
1960-09-18 Esbjerg D 2-2 1519 1457 53.25% 26.62% 20.14% -1.0 17
1960-09-18 @ Odense D 2-2 1457 1519 20.14% 26.62% 53.25% +1.0 14
1960-09-18 B 1903 W 3-1 1510 1439 54.23% 26.49% 19.28% +7.2 16
1960-09-18 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1439 1510 19.28% 26.49% 54.23% -7.2 13
1960-09-25 B 1913 W 3-1 1504 1482 48.71% 27.04% 24.26% +8.7 20
1960-09-25 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1482 1504 24.26% 27.04% 48.71% -8.7 13
1960-09-25 Frederikshavn L 0-1 1500 1458 51.03% 26.85% 22.12% -9.5 14
1960-09-25 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1458 1500 22.12% 26.85% 51.03% +9.5 17
1960-09-25 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1458 1349 57.97% 25.91% 16.13% -17.4 14
1960-09-25 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1349 1458 16.13% 25.91% 57.97% +17.4 8
1960-09-25 Vejle BK L 3-4 1434 1518 34.70% 27.25% 38.05% -6.1 11
1960-09-25 @ Frem W 4-3 1518 1434 38.05% 27.25% 34.70% +6.1 18
1960-09-25 B 1903 W 4-1 1518 1432 55.76% 26.28% 17.97% +9.6 19
1960-09-25 @ Odense L 1-4 1432 1518 17.97% 26.28% 55.76% -9.6 13
1960-09-25 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1402 1540 27.59% 26.84% 45.57% -8.5 13
1960-09-25 @ Skovshoved W 4-2 1540 1402 45.57% 26.84% 27.59% +8.5 20
1960-10-01 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1393 1366 49.26% 27.00% 23.74% -1.0 14
1960-10-01 @ Skovshoved D 1-1 1366 1393 23.74% 27.00% 49.26% +1.0 9
1960-10-02 B 1909 D 2-2 1441 1491 39.36% 27.32% 33.31% -0.2 15
1960-10-02 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1491 1441 33.31% 27.32% 39.36% +0.2 15
1960-10-02 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1422 1512 33.76% 27.22% 39.03% -6.4 13
1960-10-02 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1512 1422 39.03% 27.22% 33.76% +6.4 22
1960-10-02 B 1913 D 2-2 1468 1473 45.33% 27.22% 27.45% -0.5 18
1960-10-02 @ Frederikshavn D 2-2 1473 1468 27.45% 27.22% 45.33% +0.5 14
1960-10-02 Frem W 10-3 1548 1428 58.99% 25.71% 15.30% +13.1 22
1960-10-02 @ KB Copenhagen L 3-10 1428 1548 15.30% 25.71% 58.99% -13.1 11
1960-10-02 Vejle BK L 0-2 1528 1524 46.49% 27.17% 26.34% -16.5 19
1960-10-02 @ Odense W 2-0 1524 1528 26.34% 27.17% 46.49% +16.5 20
1960-10-09 Skovshoved W 6-1 1519 1392 59.58% 25.59% 14.83% +12.8 24
1960-10-09 @ Aarhus GF L 1-6 1392 1519 14.83% 25.59% 59.58% -12.8 14
1960-10-09 Odense L 0-6 1491 1511 43.38% 27.28% 29.34% -43.3 15
1960-10-09 @ B 1909 W 6-0 1511 1491 29.34% 27.28% 43.38% +43.3 21
1960-10-09 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1473 1367 57.67% 25.96% 16.36% -17.3 14
1960-10-09 @ B 1913 W 3-1 1367 1473 16.36% 25.96% 57.67% +17.3 11
1960-10-09 Frederikshavn D 1-1 1416 1467 39.20% 27.32% 33.47% -0.2 14
1960-10-09 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1467 1416 33.47% 27.32% 39.20% +0.2 19
1960-10-09 Esbjerg D 2-2 1415 1440 42.74% 27.29% 29.97% -0.4 12
1960-10-09 @ Frem D 2-2 1440 1415 29.97% 27.29% 42.74% +0.4 16
1960-10-09 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1540 1562 43.26% 27.28% 29.46% +5.8 22
1960-10-09 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1562 1540 29.46% 27.28% 43.26% -5.8 22
1960-10-16 Skovshoved L 0-2 1448 1379 53.88% 26.54% 19.58% -18.8 15
1960-10-16 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1379 1448 19.58% 26.54% 53.88% +18.8 16
1960-10-16 B 1903 D 1-1 1456 1416 50.84% 26.87% 22.30% -1.2 15
1960-10-16 @ B 1913 D 1-1 1416 1456 22.30% 26.87% 50.84% +1.2 15
1960-10-16 Aarhus GF D 1-1 1441 1532 33.67% 27.21% 39.12% +0.2 17
1960-10-16 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1532 1441 39.12% 27.21% 33.67% -0.2 25
1960-10-16 Odense L 0-2 1415 1555 27.40% 26.83% 45.77% -11.0 12
1960-10-16 @ Frem W 2-0 1555 1415 45.77% 26.83% 27.40% +11.0 23
1960-10-16 Frederikshavn W 5-1 1556 1467 55.96% 26.25% 17.79% +12.2 24
1960-10-16 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1467 1556 17.79% 26.25% 55.96% -12.2 19
1960-10-16 AB Gladsaxe W 6-0 1546 1385 62.57% 24.87% 12.56% +15.7 24
1960-10-16 @ Vejle BK L 0-6 1385 1546 12.56% 24.87% 62.57% -15.7 11
1960-10-30 Frem W 3-0 1531 1404 59.66% 25.57% 14.77% +9.5 27
1960-10-30 @ Aarhus GF L 0-3 1404 1531 14.77% 25.57% 59.66% -9.5 12
1960-10-30 B 1909 W 2-1 1369 1429 38.02% 27.32% 34.67% +6.6 13
1960-10-30 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1429 1369 34.67% 27.32% 38.02% -6.6 15
1960-10-30 Vejle BK L 3-4 1455 1562 31.51% 27.12% 41.38% -5.7 15
1960-10-30 @ B 1913 W 4-3 1562 1455 41.38% 27.12% 31.51% +5.7 26
1960-10-30 Skovshoved L 0-3 1417 1398 48.28% 27.06% 24.66% -24.8 15
1960-10-30 @ B 1903 W 3-0 1398 1417 24.66% 27.06% 48.28% +24.8 18
1960-10-30 Esbjerg D 1-1 1455 1441 47.73% 27.10% 25.17% -0.9 20
1960-10-30 @ Frederikshavn D 1-1 1441 1455 25.17% 27.10% 47.73% +0.9 18
1960-10-30 KB Copenhagen L 0-8 1566 1568 45.68% 27.20% 27.11% -59.4 23
1960-10-30 @ Odense W 8-0 1568 1566 27.11% 27.20% 45.68% +59.4 26
1960-11-05 AB Gladsaxe L 1-6 1394 1376 48.30% 27.06% 24.64% -33.0 12
1960-11-05 @ Frem W 6-1 1376 1394 24.64% 27.06% 48.30% +33.0 15
1960-11-06 B 1903 W 1-0 1442 1392 51.90% 26.76% 21.33% +4.8 20
1960-11-06 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1392 1442 21.33% 26.76% 51.90% -4.8 15
1960-11-06 Odense D 3-3 1454 1506 39.10% 27.32% 33.57% -0.1 21
1960-11-06 @ Frederikshavn D 3-3 1506 1454 33.57% 27.32% 39.10% +0.1 24
1960-11-06 B 1909 W 5-1 1627 1422 65.96% 23.84% 10.21% +7.3 28
1960-11-06 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1422 1627 10.21% 23.84% 65.96% -7.3 15
1960-11-06 B 1913 L 0-1 1423 1449 42.60% 27.30% 30.11% -8.1 18
1960-11-06 @ Skovshoved W 1-0 1449 1423 30.11% 27.30% 42.60% +8.1 17
1960-11-06 Aarhus GF L 4-5 1567 1541 49.23% 27.00% 23.77% -7.9 26
1960-11-06 @ Vejle BK W 5-4 1541 1567 23.77% 27.00% 49.23% +7.9 29
1960-11-13 Odense W 1-0 1549 1506 51.08% 26.84% 22.07% +4.9 31
1960-11-13 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1506 1549 22.07% 26.84% 51.08% -4.9 24
1960-11-13 B 1903 D 1-1 1409 1387 48.62% 27.04% 24.34% -1.0 16
1960-11-13 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1387 1409 24.34% 27.04% 48.62% +1.0 16
1960-11-13 Frem W 5-2 1415 1361 52.31% 26.72% 20.97% +9.4 17
1960-11-13 @ B 1909 L 2-5 1361 1415 20.97% 26.72% 52.31% -9.5 12
1960-11-13 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1457 1635 23.21% 26.35% 50.45% +8.8 19
1960-11-13 @ B 1913 L 1-2 1635 1457 50.45% 26.35% 23.21% -8.8 28
1960-11-13 Esbjerg L 1-3 1415 1447 41.85% 27.31% 30.84% -13.1 18
1960-11-13 @ Skovshoved W 3-1 1447 1415 30.84% 27.31% 41.85% +13.1 22
1960-11-13 Frederikshavn D 1-1 1560 1454 57.63% 25.97% 16.40% -1.8 27
1960-11-13 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1454 1560 16.40% 25.97% 57.63% +1.8 22
1960-11-20 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1408 1626 19.27% 25.66% 55.07% +1.1 17
1960-11-20 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1626 1408 55.07% 25.66% 19.27% -1.1 29
1960-11-20 Aarhus GF D 3-3 1424 1554 28.65% 26.93% 44.42% +0.4 18
1960-11-20 @ B 1909 D 3-3 1554 1424 44.42% 26.93% 28.65% -0.4 32
1960-11-20 Vejle BK L 0-1 1460 1558 32.69% 27.17% 40.13% -6.7 22
1960-11-20 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1558 1460 40.13% 27.17% 32.69% +6.7 29
1960-11-20 Frem W 3-0 1388 1352 50.37% 26.91% 22.73% +13.8 18
1960-11-20 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1352 1388 22.73% 26.91% 50.37% -13.8 12
1960-11-20 Skovshoved W 3-0 1456 1402 52.36% 26.72% 20.92% +12.9 24
1960-11-20 @ Frederikshavn L 0-3 1402 1456 20.92% 26.72% 52.36% -12.9 18
1960-11-20 B 1913 W 5-3 1501 1466 50.23% 26.92% 22.85% +7.0 26
1960-11-20 @ Odense L 3-5 1466 1501 22.85% 26.92% 50.23% -7.0 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1960-05-29 13.67% Skovshoved 1382 3 @ Odense 1525 2
2 1960-09-25 16.13% AB Gladsaxe 1349 3 @ Esbjerg 1458 1
3 1960-10-09 16.36% AB Gladsaxe 1367 3 @ B 1913 1473 1
4 1960-05-22 18.41% B 1903 1432 1 @ B 1909 1514 0
5 1960-10-16 19.58% Skovshoved 1379 2 @ B 1909 1448 0
6 1960-09-18 20.88% Aarhus GF 1495 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1549 1
7 1960-09-17 21.23% Skovshoved 1393 2 @ Frem 1444 1
8 1960-09-25 22.12% Frederikshavn 1458 1 @ B 1909 1500 0
9 1960-04-03 22.41% Frederikshavn 1456 2 @ B 1913 1496 1
10 1960-05-05 22.46% B 1903 1423 1 @ Frem 1462 0
11 1960-11-13 23.21% @ B 1913 1457 2 KB Copenhagen 1635 1
12 1960-06-05 23.75% Frederikshavn 1465 3 @ Aarhus GF 1492 2
13 1960-11-06 23.77% Aarhus GF 1541 5 @ Vejle BK 1567 4
14 1960-04-17 24.01% Frem 1453 4 @ B 1913 1477 1
15 1960-05-12 24.33% Skovshoved 1357 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1378 0
16 1960-11-05 24.64% AB Gladsaxe 1376 6 @ Frem 1394 1
17 1960-10-30 24.66% Skovshoved 1398 3 @ B 1903 1417 0
18 1960-03-20 25.14% Frederikshavn 1449 3 @ Frem 1463 1
19 1960-03-26 25.60% B 1903 1401 4 @ Skovshoved 1412 0
20 1960-10-02 26.34% Vejle BK 1524 2 @ Odense 1528 0
21 1960-10-30 27.11% KB Copenhagen 1568 8 @ Odense 1566 0
22 1960-09-18 27.71% @ AB Gladsaxe 1335 3 Frederikshavn 1472 1
23 1960-03-27 28.31% Frem 1449 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1437 2
24 1960-04-18 28.77% Vejle BK 1486 2 @ Frederikshavn 1470 0
25 1960-03-20 29.04% B 1913 1449 4 @ B 1903 1431 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-10-30 59.42 KB Copenhagen 8 1568 27.11% @ Odense 0 1566 45.68% 27.20%
2 1960-10-09 43.30 Odense 6 1511 29.34% @ B 1909 0 1491 43.38% 27.28%
3 1960-11-05 33.04 AB Gladsaxe 6 1376 24.64% @ Frem 1 1394 48.30% 27.06%
4 1960-03-26 31.78 B 1903 4 1401 25.60% @ Skovshoved 0 1412 47.28% 27.12%
5 1960-03-20 29.75 B 1913 4 1449 29.04% @ B 1903 0 1431 43.68% 27.27%
6 1960-04-24 28.94 B 1913 4 1456 30.50% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1427 42.20% 27.30%
7 1960-05-12 24.92 Skovshoved 3 1357 24.33% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1378 48.63% 27.04%
8 1960-10-30 24.77 Skovshoved 3 1398 24.66% @ B 1903 0 1417 48.28% 27.06%
9 1960-04-17 21.15 Frem 4 1453 24.01% @ B 1913 1 1477 48.97% 27.02%
10 1960-04-10 20.53 @ Odense 4 1492 46.08% Aarhus GF 0 1492 26.74% 27.19%
11 1960-05-28 19.73 @ B 1909 4 1503 47.46% B 1913 0 1491 25.42% 27.11%
12 1960-10-16 18.80 Skovshoved 2 1379 19.58% @ B 1909 0 1448 53.88% 26.54%
13 1960-09-25 17.41 AB Gladsaxe 3 1349 16.13% @ Esbjerg 1 1458 57.97% 25.91%
14 1960-10-09 17.32 AB Gladsaxe 3 1367 16.36% @ B 1913 1 1473 57.67% 25.96%
15 1960-03-26 16.87 @ B 1913 3 1479 43.37% Odense 0 1499 29.35% 27.28%
16 1960-05-08 16.87 @ B 1913 5 1479 57.63% Skovshoved 0 1374 16.40% 25.97%
17 1960-03-20 16.66 @ Aarhus GF 6 1469 40.59% KB Copenhagen 2 1510 32.09% 27.32%
18 1960-10-02 16.51 Vejle BK 2 1524 26.34% @ Odense 0 1528 46.49% 27.17%
19 1960-04-10 16.49 @ KB Copenhagen 4 1502 52.99% AB Gladsaxe 0 1442 20.37% 26.65%
20 1960-06-12 16.14 @ B 1913 3 1466 45.08% Esbjerg 0 1473 27.69% 27.23%
21 1960-04-18 15.77 Vejle BK 2 1486 28.77% @ Frederikshavn 0 1470 43.96% 27.26%
22 1960-10-16 15.67 @ Vejle BK 6 1546 62.57% AB Gladsaxe 0 1385 12.56% 24.87%
23 1960-06-01 15.48 @ Aarhus GF 4 1476 39.81% B 1909 1 1523 32.86% 27.32%
24 1960-03-20 14.64 Frederikshavn 3 1449 25.14% @ Frem 1 1463 47.77% 27.10%
25 1960-04-24 14.39 @ Vejle BK 4 1502 42.92% Odense 1 1526 29.79% 27.29%