1959 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

B 1909

33 points · 1st Title

Relegated

B.93

6 pts

Koge BK · 16 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KB Copenhagen

8.25 points above expected

31 points · 22.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B.93

10.26 points below expected

6 points · 16.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	B 1909 Champion	22	14	5	3	33	47	28	+19	25.06	+7.94
2	KB Copenhagen	22	15	1	6	31	48	27	+21	22.75	+8.25
3	Vejle BK	22	14	1	7	29	47	37	+10	26.36	+2.64
4	Odense	22	13	1	8	27	49	37	+12	24.67	+2.33
5	Aarhus GF	22	10	2	10	22	39	39	0	24.04	-2.04
6	Esbjerg	22	8	5	9	21	36	32	+4	25.03	-4.03
7	AB Gladsaxe	22	9	3	10	21	51	53	-2	20.24	+0.76
8	Frem	22	8	4	10	20	45	44	+1	25.05	-5.05
9	Skovshoved	22	8	4	10	20	32	50	-18	16.40	+3.60
10	B 1903	22	7	4	11	18	35	38	-3	18.73	-0.73
11	Koge BK Relegated	22	7	2	13	16	31	40	-9	19.42	-3.42
12	B.93 Relegated	22	2	2	18	6	27	62	-35	16.26	-10.26

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KB Copenhagen	1607	31	22.75	+8.25	98.0%	8	16	20	23	26	30	39
B 1909	1593	33	25.06	+7.94	97.8%	8	18	22	25	28	32	39
Vejle BK	1589	29	26.36	+2.64	76.8%	10	19	24	26	29	33	42
Odense	1587	27	24.67	+2.33	74.7%	5	18	22	25	28	32	39
Esbjerg	1538	21	25.03	-4.03	20.5%	9	18	22	25	28	32	39
Aarhus GF	1526	22	24.04	-2.04	35.5%	8	17	21	24	27	31	38
Frem	1512	20	25.05	-5.05	14.7%	10	18	22	25	28	32	41
AB Gladsaxe	1469	21	20.24	+0.76	61.7%	5	13	17	20	23	27	37
B 1903	1447	18	18.73	-0.73	48.3%	5	12	16	19	22	26	35
Koge BK	1419	16	19.42	-3.42	25.0%	6	13	17	19	22	26	35
Skovshoved	1413	20	16.40	+3.60	83.7%	2	10	14	16	19	23	34
B.93	1348	6	16.26	-10.26	0.7%	3	10	13	16	19	23	31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B1	B.9	ESB	FRE	KC	KB	ODE	SKO	VB
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-0-1 2.32	0-0-2 3.36	0-0-2 2.27	2-0-0 3.37	0-1-1 2.28	0-2-0 2.12	1-0-1 2.50	2-0-0 2.86	0-0-2 2.34	2-0-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.01
Aarhus GF	1-0-1 3.41	—	1-1-0 3.57	0-1-1 2.77	2-0-0 3.87	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 2.43	0-0-2 3.23	0-0-2 3.41	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 3.61	0-0-2 2.67
B 1903	2-0-0 2.37	0-1-1 2.16	—	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 3.19	1-1-0 2.28	0-1-1 1.95	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.02	1-0-1 3.19	0-0-2 2.07
B 1909	2-0-0 3.45	1-1-0 2.96	2-0-0 3.47	—	2-0-0 3.87	1-1-0 2.65	2-0-0 2.99	0-1-1 3.36	1-0-1 3.74	1-1-0 3.04	1-1-0 3.84	1-0-1 2.71
B.93	0-0-2 2.36	0-0-2 1.86	1-1-0 2.54	0-0-2 1.86	—	0-0-2 1.88	1-0-1 1.76	0-0-2 1.93	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 1.86	0-1-1 2.73	0-0-2 1.77
Esbjerg	1-1-0 3.44	1-0-1 3.03	0-1-1 3.45	0-1-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.85	—	1-0-1 2.73	0-0-2 3.44	1-1-0 3.67	1-0-1 2.74	1-1-0 3.74	0-0-2 2.92
Frem	0-2-0 3.60	0-0-2 3.30	1-1-0 3.78	0-0-2 2.73	1-0-1 3.97	1-0-1 3.00	—	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 3.42	0-0-2 2.98	2-0-0 3.82	1-0-1 2.59
KB Copenhagen	1-0-1 3.23	2-0-0 2.50	1-0-1 3.30	1-1-0 2.37	2-0-0 3.80	2-0-0 2.29	1-0-1 2.83	—	2-0-0 3.57	2-0-0 2.63	1-0-1 3.72	0-0-2 2.26
Koge BK	0-0-2 2.87	2-0-0 2.32	1-0-1 3.00	1-0-1 1.99	2-0-0 3.40	0-1-1 2.06	0-1-1 2.30	0-0-2 2.16	—	0-0-2 2.20	0-0-2 3.54	1-0-1 1.77
Odense	2-0-0 3.38	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 3.71	0-1-1 2.69	2-0-0 3.87	1-0-1 2.98	2-0-0 2.74	0-0-2 3.09	2-0-0 3.53	—	0-0-2 4.17	2-0-0 2.55
Skovshoved	0-0-2 2.34	0-0-2 2.12	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 1.89	1-1-0 2.99	0-1-1 1.99	0-0-2 1.91	1-0-1 2.01	2-0-0 2.18	2-0-0 1.56	—	1-1-0 1.61
Vejle BK	1-0-1 3.71	2-0-0 3.06	2-0-0 3.65	1-0-1 3.02	2-0-0 3.96	2-0-0 2.81	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.47	1-0-1 3.96	0-0-2 3.18	0-1-1 4.12	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.62	+7.1
Allowed	0.63	-5.7
Differential	0.88	+4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.52%	4.92%	5.68%	3.41%	2.65%	1.14%	19.32%
1	4.92%	8.33%	7.95%	4.55%	1.14%	2.27%	29.17%
2	5.68%	7.95%	0.76%	3.41%	3.03%	1.52%	22.35%
3	3.41%	4.55%	3.41%	1.52%	1.52%	—	14.39%
4	2.65%	1.14%	3.03%	1.52%	—	0.38%	8.71%
5+	1.14%	2.27%	1.52%	—	0.38%	0.76%	6.06%
Total	19.32%	29.17%	22.35%	14.39%	8.71%	6.06%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.84	1.84	+0.00
SD	1.50	1.50	2.25
CV	0.81	0.81	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	27.27%
1	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
2	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
Total	4.55%	27.27%	22.73%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	2.41	-0.09
SD	1.78	1.47	2.18
CV	0.77	0.61	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
3	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	31.82%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.77	+0.00
SD	1.19	1.19	1.93
CV	0.67	0.67	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	4.55%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	36.36%	31.82%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.73	-0.14
SD	1.87	1.35	2.71
CV	1.17	0.78	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	40.91%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.27	+0.86
SD	1.55	0.88	1.58
CV	0.73	0.69	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	36.36%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	40.91%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	2.82	-1.59
SD	0.87	1.59	1.56
CV	0.71	0.57	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	13.64%	22.73%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.45	+0.18
SD	1.40	1.14	2.11
CV	0.85	0.79	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.00	+0.05
SD	1.68	1.45	2.40
CV	0.82	0.72	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
Total	40.91%	31.82%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.23	+0.95
SD	1.71	1.48	2.40
CV	0.78	1.20	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.82	-0.41
SD	1.37	1.37	1.84
CV	0.97	0.75	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
1	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	40.91%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	31.82%	9.09%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.23	1.68	+0.55
SD	1.54	1.32	2.06
CV	0.69	0.79	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	27.27%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	—	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.27	-0.82
SD	1.44	2.05	2.77
CV	0.99	0.90	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
3	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	22.73%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.68	+0.45
SD	1.17	1.89	2.32
CV	0.55	1.12	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KB Copenhagen	31	22.75	+8.25
2	B 1909	33	25.06	+7.94
3	Skovshoved	20	16.40	+3.60
4	Vejle BK	29	26.36	+2.64
5	Odense	27	24.67	+2.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B.93	6	16.26	-10.26
2	Frem	20	25.05	-5.05
3	Esbjerg	21	25.03	-4.03
4	Koge BK	16	19.42	-3.42
5	Aarhus GF	22	24.04	-2.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KB Copenhagen	6	Sep 27 – Nov 22	1 in 48
2	Odense	5	Apr 5 – May 10	1 in 47
3	Vejle BK	4	Apr 26 – May 17	1 in 19
4	Skovshoved	2	May 17 – May 30	1 in 14
5	Frem	3	Mar 22 – Apr 5	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	8	Sep 6 – Nov 22	1 in 248
2	Esbjerg	5	Aug 9 – Sep 20	1 in 101
3	Aarhus GF	4	Apr 19 – May 10	1 in 53
4	B.93	6	Jun 7 – Sep 20	1 in 26
5	Frem	4	Oct 25 – Nov 22	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B 1909	10	Mar 15 – May 31	1 in 157
2	Odense	5	Apr 5 – May 10	1 in 13
3	KB Copenhagen	6	Sep 27 – Nov 22	1 in 12
4	Skovshoved	3	Mar 29 – Apr 19	1 in 12
5	AB Gladsaxe	4	Apr 19 – May 14	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Frem	6	Apr 18 – May 31	1 in 129
2	Esbjerg	7	Jun 7 – Sep 27	1 in 116
3	B.93	12	Jun 7 – Nov 8	1 in 42
4	Koge BK	8	Sep 6 – Nov 22	1 in 35
5	Aarhus GF	5	Apr 5 – May 10	1 in 28

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
B 1909	16.48%	15.50%	13.45%	11.60%	11.24%	9.52%	7.14%	5.90%	4.22%	2.68%	1.58%	0.69%
KB Copenhagen	7.31%	8.79%	10.00%	10.86%	11.01%	10.79%	10.80%	10.11%	8.05%	6.22%	4.15%	1.91%
Vejle BK	23.02%	18.02%	14.27%	11.80%	9.62%	7.04%	6.23%	4.45%	2.74%	1.59%	0.90%	0.32%
Odense	13.56%	12.89%	12.71%	13.05%	11.02%	10.32%	8.66%	6.95%	4.97%	3.10%	2.04%	0.73%
Aarhus GF	8.91%	10.41%	11.82%	11.89%	11.96%	10.96%	10.73%	8.45%	6.15%	4.78%	2.59%	1.35%
Esbjerg	13.48%	13.72%	13.44%	12.68%	11.10%	10.49%	8.50%	6.52%	4.69%	2.91%	1.60%	0.87%
AB Gladsaxe	1.71%	3.15%	4.39%	6.07%	7.21%	9.09%	11.35%	13.23%	13.12%	12.78%	10.61%	7.29%
Frem	13.35%	13.45%	13.18%	12.34%	11.82%	10.58%	8.49%	6.30%	5.16%	3.04%	1.64%	0.65%
Skovshoved	0.27%	0.36%	0.67%	1.29%	1.93%	3.32%	5.00%	7.04%	11.18%	15.95%	23.47%	29.52%
B 1903	0.80%	1.56%	2.42%	3.44%	4.70%	6.90%	9.12%	12.10%	14.65%	16.50%	15.16%	12.65%
Koge BK	1.01%	1.85%	2.95%	3.99%	6.19%	7.83%	9.71%	12.21%	14.93%	15.23%	13.99%	10.11%
B.93	0.10%	0.30%	0.70%	0.99%	2.20%	3.16%	4.27%	6.74%	10.14%	15.22%	22.27%	33.91%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+2.27%

No Edge

44.70%12.88%42.42%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 7.90 Elo pts.

171 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.02 goals

Neutral

-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.7

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

16%

B 1909, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.39 * Some Luck: 3.39 to 5.08 * Lucky: 5.08 to 6.78 * Wild Swing: 6.78 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.85 * Close: 1.85 to 2.78 * Off: 2.78 to 3.71 * Way Off: 3.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.91 * A Surprise: 0.91 to 1.45 * Several Surprises: 1.45 to 2 * Many Surprises: 2 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.17 points

Lucky

04.2311

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

Pinpoint

02.325

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.05%

KB Copenhagen

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

0.66%

B.93

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.57

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

70%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Clear Edge

50%84%100%

Close Games

Expected

48%

Frequent

0%49%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Very Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.22

Notable Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.51

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.55

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Upset-Prone

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.43

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.96

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.074

Well Within Noise

00.1360.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Vejle BK	98.78%	1.22%
B 1909	97.73%	2.27%
Frem	97.71%	2.29%
Esbjerg	97.53%	2.47%
Odense	97.23%	2.77%
Aarhus GF	96.06%	3.94%
KB Copenhagen	93.94%	6.06%
AB Gladsaxe	82.10%	17.90%
Koge BK	75.90%	24.10%
B 1903	72.19%	27.81%
Skovshoved	47.01%	52.99%
B.93	43.82%	56.18%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1959-03-14	B.93	W 3-2	1443	1482	39.23%	13.65%	47.12%	+7.0	2
1959-03-14	@ Skovshoved	L 2-3	1482	1443	47.12%	13.65%	39.23%	-7.1	0
1959-03-15	Frem	W 2-0	1517	1546	40.70%	13.65%	45.64%	+14.5	2
1959-03-15	@ B 1909	L 0-2	1546	1517	45.64%	13.65%	40.70%	-14.5	0
1959-03-15	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1550	1480	54.44%	13.61%	31.95%	+5.3	2
1959-03-15	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1480	1550	31.95%	13.61%	54.44%	-5.3	0
1959-03-15	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1426	1543	29.11%	13.57%	57.32%	+1.1	1
1959-03-15	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1543	1426	57.32%	13.57%	29.11%	-1.1	1
1959-03-15	Odense	W 1-0	1488	1548	36.37%	13.64%	49.99%	+8.3	2
1959-03-15	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1548	1488	49.99%	13.64%	36.37%	-8.3	0
1959-03-15	Koge BK	L 0-2	1573	1453	60.44%	13.54%	26.02%	-18.8	0
1959-03-15	@ Vejle BK	W 2-0	1453	1573	26.02%	13.54%	60.44%	+18.8	2
1959-03-21	B 1903	L 0-1	1474	1427	51.47%	13.64%	34.90%	-8.5	0
1959-03-21	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1427	1474	34.90%	13.64%	51.47%	+8.6	3
1959-03-22	Skovshoved	W 2-1	1541	1450	57.13%	13.58%	29.29%	+4.9	3
1959-03-22	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1450	1541	29.29%	13.58%	57.13%	-4.9	2
1959-03-22	B 1909	L 2-5	1475	1532	36.89%	13.64%	49.47%	-12.7	0
1959-03-22	@ B.93	W 5-2	1532	1475	49.47%	13.64%	36.89%	+12.8	4
1959-03-22	Vejle BK	W 3-1	1532	1554	41.64%	13.66%	44.71%	+12.3	2
1959-03-22	@ Frem	L 1-3	1554	1532	44.71%	13.66%	41.64%	-12.3	0
1959-03-22	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1472	1496	41.43%	13.66%	44.91%	-13.3	2
1959-03-22	@ Koge BK	W 2-0	1496	1472	44.91%	13.66%	41.43%	+13.3	4
1959-03-22	Esbjerg	L 0-4	1540	1555	42.66%	13.66%	43.68%	-25.9	0
1959-03-22	@ Odense	W 4-0	1555	1540	43.68%	13.66%	42.66%	+25.9	4
1959-03-29	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1466	1546	33.69%	13.62%	52.69%	-5.5	0
1959-03-29	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1546	1466	52.69%	13.62%	33.69%	+5.5	5
1959-03-29	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1544	1445	58.08%	13.57%	28.34%	-1.2	5
1959-03-29	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1445	1544	28.34%	13.57%	58.08%	+1.2	3
1959-03-29	Koge BK	D 0-0	1581	1459	60.72%	13.53%	25.75%	-1.5	5
1959-03-29	@ Esbjerg	D 0-0	1459	1581	25.75%	13.53%	60.72%	+1.5	3
1959-03-29	Odense	W 4-2	1435	1514	33.92%	13.62%	52.46%	+12.7	5
1959-03-29	@ B 1903	L 2-4	1514	1435	52.46%	13.62%	33.92%	-12.7	0
1959-03-30	Frem	L 0-3	1509	1544	39.91%	13.65%	46.44%	-18.7	4
1959-03-30	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1544	1509	46.44%	13.65%	39.91%	+18.7	4
1959-03-30	B.93	W 4-0	1542	1462	55.64%	13.60%	30.76%	+19.4	2
1959-03-30	@ Vejle BK	L 0-4	1462	1542	30.76%	13.60%	55.64%	-19.4	0
1959-04-04	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1443	1491	38.10%	13.65%	48.25%	-6.5	0
1959-04-04	@ B.93	W 1-0	1491	1443	48.25%	13.65%	38.10%	+6.6	6
1959-04-05	B 1909	D 1-1	1552	1543	46.09%	13.66%	40.25%	-0.2	6
1959-04-05	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1543	1552	40.25%	13.66%	46.09%	+0.2	6
1959-04-05	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1563	1580	42.48%	13.66%	43.87%	+7.0	6
1959-04-05	@ Frem	L 1-2	1580	1563	43.87%	13.66%	42.48%	-7.0	5
1959-04-05	B 1903	W 2-1	1460	1448	46.63%	13.65%	39.71%	+6.4	5
1959-04-05	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1448	1460	39.71%	13.65%	46.63%	-6.4	5
1959-04-05	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1501	1460	50.58%	13.64%	35.78%	+11.7	2
1959-04-05	@ Odense	L 0-2	1460	1501	35.78%	13.64%	50.58%	-11.7	0
1959-04-05	Vejle BK	D 0-0	1446	1562	29.28%	13.57%	57.15%	+1.2	4
1959-04-05	@ Skovshoved	D 0-0	1562	1446	57.15%	13.57%	29.28%	-1.2	3
1959-04-12	B.93	W 1-0	1573	1436	62.26%	13.51%	24.24%	+4.4	7
1959-04-12	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1436	1573	24.24%	13.51%	62.26%	-4.4	0
1959-04-18	Frem	D 1-1	1441	1570	27.76%	13.55%	58.68%	+1.2	6
1959-04-18	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1570	1441	58.68%	13.55%	27.76%	-1.2	7
1959-04-19	Koge BK	W 4-3	1448	1467	42.26%	13.66%	44.09%	+6.5	2
1959-04-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1467	1448	44.09%	13.66%	42.26%	-6.5	5
1959-04-19	Skovshoved	L 0-2	1497	1447	51.80%	13.63%	34.57%	-16.2	6
1959-04-19	@ KB Copenhagen	W 2-0	1447	1497	34.57%	13.63%	51.80%	+16.2	6
1959-04-19	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1513	1552	39.36%	13.65%	46.98%	+7.4	4
1959-04-19	@ Odense	L 1-2	1552	1513	46.98%	13.65%	39.36%	-7.4	6
1959-04-19	B 1909	L 2-3	1560	1543	47.25%	13.65%	39.10%	-7.1	3
1959-04-19	@ Vejle BK	W 3-2	1543	1560	39.10%	13.65%	47.25%	+7.1	8
1959-04-24	B 1903	W 1-0	1432	1443	43.34%	13.66%	43.00%	+7.3	2
1959-04-24	@ B.93	L 0-1	1443	1432	43.00%	13.66%	43.34%	-7.3	6
1959-04-26	Vejle BK	L 0-1	1544	1553	43.58%	13.66%	42.76%	-7.4	6
1959-04-26	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1553	1544	42.76%	13.66%	43.58%	+7.4	5
1959-04-26	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1551	1481	54.33%	13.61%	32.06%	-0.9	9
1959-04-26	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1481	1551	32.06%	13.61%	54.33%	+0.9	7
1959-04-26	AB Gladsaxe	D 3-3	1569	1455	59.72%	13.55%	26.73%	-0.8	8
1959-04-26	@ Frem	D 3-3	1455	1569	26.73%	13.55%	59.72%	+0.8	3
1959-04-26	Odense	L 0-1	1460	1520	36.41%	13.64%	49.96%	-6.3	5
1959-04-26	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1520	1460	49.96%	13.64%	36.41%	+6.3	6
1959-04-26	Esbjerg	L 0-2	1463	1577	29.52%	13.58%	56.90%	-9.9	6
1959-04-26	@ Skovshoved	W 2-0	1577	1463	56.90%	13.58%	29.52%	+9.9	9
1959-05-03	B 1909	D 1-1	1587	1550	50.05%	13.64%	36.31%	-0.5	10
1959-05-03	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1550	1587	36.31%	13.64%	50.05%	+0.5	10
1959-05-03	Skovshoved	W 7-0	1435	1453	42.28%	13.66%	44.06%	+45.1	8
1959-05-03	@ B 1903	L 0-7	1453	1435	44.06%	13.66%	42.28%	-45.1	6
1959-05-03	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1482	1561	33.93%	13.62%	52.44%	-9.7	7
1959-05-03	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-1	1561	1482	52.44%	13.62%	33.93%	+9.7	7
1959-05-03	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1454	1537	33.39%	13.62%	53.00%	+8.3	7
1959-05-03	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1537	1454	53.00%	13.62%	33.39%	-8.3	6
1959-05-03	Frem	W 4-2	1527	1568	39.02%	13.65%	47.33%	+11.6	8
1959-05-03	@ Odense	L 2-4	1568	1527	47.33%	13.65%	39.02%	-11.6	8
1959-05-09	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1408	1456	38.15%	13.65%	48.21%	-18.0	6
1959-05-09	@ Skovshoved	W 3-0	1456	1408	48.21%	13.65%	38.15%	+18.0	5
1959-05-10	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1529	1472	52.62%	13.63%	33.76%	-14.2	6
1959-05-10	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1472	1529	33.76%	13.63%	52.62%	+14.2	9
1959-05-10	B 1903	W 1-0	1550	1480	54.36%	13.61%	32.03%	+5.6	12
1959-05-10	@ B 1909	L 0-1	1480	1550	32.03%	13.61%	54.36%	-5.6	8
1959-05-10	Odense	L 0-4	1439	1538	31.33%	13.60%	55.07%	-19.7	2
1959-05-10	@ B.93	W 4-0	1538	1439	55.07%	13.60%	31.33%	+19.7	10
1959-05-10	Koge BK	D 1-1	1556	1462	57.40%	13.58%	29.02%	-1.1	9
1959-05-10	@ Frem	D 1-1	1462	1556	29.02%	13.58%	57.40%	+1.1	8
1959-05-10	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1570	1586	42.58%	13.66%	43.77%	+7.0	9
1959-05-10	@ Vejle BK	L 1-2	1586	1570	43.77%	13.66%	42.58%	-7.0	10
1959-05-14	B.93	W 4-2	1474	1420	52.34%	13.63%	34.03%	+8.7	7
1959-05-14	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1420	1474	34.03%	13.63%	52.34%	-8.7	2
1959-05-17	Frem	W 3-1	1514	1555	39.06%	13.65%	47.29%	+12.9	8
1959-05-17	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1555	1514	47.29%	13.65%	39.06%	-12.9	9
1959-05-17	B 1909	L 2-3	1482	1556	34.63%	13.63%	51.74%	-5.4	7
1959-05-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1556	1482	51.74%	13.63%	34.63%	+5.4	14
1959-05-17	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1579	1486	57.25%	13.58%	29.17%	-17.8	10
1959-05-17	@ Esbjerg	W 2-0	1486	1579	29.17%	13.58%	57.25%	+17.8	11
1959-05-17	Vejle BK	L 1-3	1475	1577	30.91%	13.59%	55.50%	-8.9	8
1959-05-17	@ B 1903	W 3-1	1577	1475	55.50%	13.59%	30.91%	+8.9	11
1959-05-17	B.93	W 4-1	1463	1411	52.10%	13.63%	34.27%	+13.8	10
1959-05-17	@ Koge BK	L 1-4	1411	1463	34.27%	13.63%	52.10%	-13.8	2
1959-05-17	Skovshoved	L 1-2	1558	1390	65.51%	13.43%	21.05%	-10.2	10
1959-05-17	@ Odense	W 2-1	1390	1558	21.05%	13.43%	65.51%	+10.2	8
1959-05-30	Koge BK	W 3-1	1401	1477	34.21%	13.62%	52.16%	+14.1	10
1959-05-30	@ Skovshoved	L 1-3	1477	1401	52.16%	13.62%	34.21%	-14.1	10
1959-05-31	Odense	W 4-2	1561	1548	46.76%	13.65%	39.58%	+9.9	16
1959-05-31	@ B 1909	L 2-4	1548	1561	39.58%	13.65%	46.76%	-9.9	10
1959-05-31	Frem	W 2-0	1397	1542	25.86%	13.52%	60.62%	+18.8	4
1959-05-31	@ B.93	L 0-2	1542	1397	60.62%	13.52%	25.86%	-18.8	9
1959-05-31	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1561	1527	49.65%	13.64%	36.70%	+6.0	12
1959-05-31	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1527	1561	36.70%	13.64%	49.65%	-6.0	8
1959-05-31	B 1903	L 1-5	1504	1466	50.21%	13.64%	36.15%	-24.9	11
1959-05-31	@ KB Copenhagen	W 5-1	1466	1504	36.15%	13.64%	50.21%	+24.9	10
1959-05-31	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1586	1477	59.19%	13.56%	27.25%	-8.7	11
1959-05-31	@ Vejle BK	W 3-2	1477	1586	27.25%	13.56%	59.19%	+8.7	9
1959-06-04	Vejle BK	W 6-2	1538	1577	39.25%	13.65%	47.10%	+19.9	12
1959-06-04	@ Odense	L 2-6	1577	1538	47.10%	13.65%	39.25%	-20.0	11
1959-06-06	KB Copenhagen	L 4-6	1486	1479	45.78%	13.66%	40.57%	-10.2	9
1959-06-06	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 6-4	1479	1486	40.57%	13.66%	45.78%	+10.2	13
1959-06-07	B.93	W 4-2	1521	1416	58.75%	13.56%	27.68%	+7.2	10
1959-06-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1416	1521	27.68%	13.56%	58.75%	-7.2	4
1959-06-07	Esbjerg	D 1-1	1491	1567	34.21%	13.62%	52.17%	+0.7	11
1959-06-07	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1567	1491	52.17%	13.62%	34.21%	-0.7	13
1959-06-07	Skovshoved	W 5-0	1523	1415	59.15%	13.56%	27.29%	+21.5	11
1959-06-07	@ Frem	L 0-5	1415	1523	27.29%	13.56%	59.15%	-21.5	10
1959-06-07	B 1909	W 2-0	1463	1571	30.20%	13.58%	56.22%	+17.5	12
1959-06-07	@ Koge BK	L 0-2	1571	1463	56.22%	13.58%	30.20%	-17.5	16
1959-08-08	AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1409	1476	35.51%	13.63%	50.86%	-5.4	4
1959-08-08	@ B.93	W 4-3	1476	1409	50.86%	13.63%	35.51%	+5.4	11
1959-08-09	Koge BK	L 1-3	1528	1480	51.51%	13.63%	34.86%	-14.0	10
1959-08-09	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1480	1528	34.86%	13.63%	51.51%	+14.0	14
1959-08-09	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1554	1567	42.98%	13.66%	43.36%	+6.9	18
1959-08-09	@ B 1909	L 1-2	1567	1554	43.36%	13.66%	42.98%	-6.9	13
1959-08-09	Odense	L 1-2	1545	1558	43.01%	13.66%	43.34%	-6.9	11
1959-08-09	@ Frem	W 2-1	1558	1545	43.34%	13.66%	43.01%	+6.9	14
1959-08-09	B 1903	W 2-1	1393	1492	31.41%	13.60%	54.99%	+8.6	12
1959-08-09	@ Skovshoved	L 1-2	1492	1393	54.99%	13.60%	31.41%	-8.6	11
1959-08-09	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1557	1490	54.11%	13.62%	32.27%	+5.7	13
1959-08-09	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1490	1557	32.27%	13.62%	54.11%	-5.7	13
1959-08-15	Skovshoved	W 5-1	1481	1402	55.55%	13.60%	30.85%	+16.2	13
1959-08-15	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-5	1402	1481	30.85%	13.60%	55.55%	-16.2	12
1959-08-16	Vejle BK	L 1-2	1560	1563	44.40%	13.66%	41.94%	-7.0	13
1959-08-16	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1563	1560	41.94%	13.66%	44.40%	+7.1	15
1959-08-16	B 1909	L 1-2	1483	1560	34.09%	13.62%	52.29%	-5.6	11
1959-08-16	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1560	1483	52.29%	13.62%	34.09%	+5.6	20
1959-08-16	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1484	1514	40.51%	13.65%	45.84%	+21.1	15
1959-08-16	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1514	1484	45.84%	13.65%	40.51%	-21.1	10
1959-08-16	Frem	L 0-3	1494	1538	38.69%	13.65%	47.67%	-18.2	14
1959-08-16	@ Koge BK	W 3-0	1538	1494	47.67%	13.65%	38.69%	+18.2	13
1959-08-16	B.93	W 2-1	1565	1403	64.90%	13.45%	21.66%	+3.7	16
1959-08-16	@ Odense	L 1-2	1403	1565	21.66%	13.45%	64.90%	-3.7	4
1959-08-20	Koge BK	L 2-4	1400	1476	34.20%	13.62%	52.17%	-8.7	4
1959-08-20	@ B.93	W 4-2	1476	1400	52.17%	13.62%	34.20%	+8.7	16
1959-08-22	Odense	W 3-2	1386	1568	21.88%	13.43%	64.68%	+9.5	14
1959-08-22	@ Skovshoved	L 2-3	1568	1386	64.68%	13.43%	21.88%	-9.5	16
1959-08-23	AB Gladsaxe	W 4-0	1566	1497	54.27%	13.61%	32.12%	+20.2	22
1959-08-23	@ B 1909	L 0-4	1497	1566	32.12%	13.61%	54.27%	-20.2	13
1959-08-23	Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1556	1493	53.46%	13.62%	32.92%	-24.2	13
1959-08-23	@ Frem	W 3-0	1493	1556	32.92%	13.62%	53.46%	+24.2	12
1959-08-23	Esbjerg	W 4-0	1505	1553	38.10%	13.65%	48.25%	+28.8	17
1959-08-23	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1553	1505	48.25%	13.65%	38.10%	-28.8	13
1959-08-23	B 1903	W 2-0	1570	1477	57.24%	13.58%	29.17%	+9.8	17
1959-08-23	@ Vejle BK	L 0-2	1477	1570	29.17%	13.58%	57.24%	-9.8	11
1959-09-05	KB Copenhagen	L 0-5	1468	1534	35.58%	13.63%	50.78%	-27.2	11
1959-09-05	@ B 1903	W 5-0	1534	1468	50.78%	13.63%	35.58%	+27.2	19
1959-09-06	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1518	1524	43.97%	13.66%	42.38%	+19.7	14
1959-09-06	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1524	1518	42.38%	13.66%	43.97%	-19.7	13
1959-09-06	Vejle BK	L 0-3	1477	1580	30.83%	13.59%	55.58%	-14.9	13
1959-09-06	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-0	1580	1477	55.58%	13.59%	30.83%	+14.9	19
1959-09-06	B.93	W 2-1	1532	1391	62.78%	13.50%	23.73%	+4.0	15
1959-09-06	@ Frem	L 1-2	1391	1532	23.73%	13.50%	62.78%	-4.0	4
1959-09-06	Skovshoved	L 0-1	1485	1395	56.89%	13.59%	29.52%	-9.4	16
1959-09-06	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1395	1485	29.52%	13.59%	56.89%	+9.4	16
1959-09-06	B 1909	D 2-2	1559	1586	40.96%	13.65%	45.39%	+0.1	17
1959-09-06	@ Odense	D 2-2	1586	1559	45.39%	13.65%	40.96%	-0.1	23
1959-09-19	Frem	L 2-6	1404	1536	27.40%	13.55%	59.05%	-12.4	16
1959-09-19	@ Skovshoved	W 6-2	1536	1404	59.05%	13.55%	27.40%	+12.3	17
1959-09-20	Koge BK	W 2-0	1586	1476	59.37%	13.55%	27.08%	+9.1	25
1959-09-20	@ B 1909	L 0-2	1476	1586	27.08%	13.55%	59.37%	-9.1	16
1959-09-20	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1387	1537	25.27%	13.51%	61.23%	-7.4	4
1959-09-20	@ B.93	W 3-1	1537	1387	61.23%	13.51%	25.27%	+7.4	16
1959-09-20	B 1903	L 1-2	1504	1440	53.60%	13.62%	32.78%	-8.4	13
1959-09-20	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1440	1504	32.78%	13.62%	53.60%	+8.4	13
1959-09-20	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1561	1462	58.00%	13.57%	28.42%	-15.6	19
1959-09-20	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-1	1462	1561	28.42%	13.57%	58.00%	+15.6	15
1959-09-20	Odense	L 2-4	1595	1559	49.86%	13.64%	36.50%	-12.1	19
1959-09-20	@ Vejle BK	W 4-2	1559	1595	36.50%	13.64%	49.86%	+12.1	19
1959-09-26	Frem	D 5-5	1478	1548	34.99%	13.63%	51.38%	+0.3	16
1959-09-26	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 5-5	1548	1478	51.38%	13.63%	34.99%	-0.3	18
1959-09-27	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1496	1392	58.57%	13.57%	27.86%	-1.2	14
1959-09-27	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1392	1496	27.86%	13.57%	58.57%	+1.2	17
1959-09-27	B.93	D 1-1	1449	1379	54.31%	13.61%	32.08%	-0.9	14
1959-09-27	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1379	1449	32.08%	13.61%	54.31%	+0.9	5
1959-09-27	B 1909	W 2-0	1545	1595	37.82%	13.64%	48.53%	+15.3	21
1959-09-27	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1595	1545	48.53%	13.64%	37.82%	-15.3	25
1959-09-27	Koge BK	W 1-0	1571	1466	58.68%	13.56%	27.76%	+4.9	21
1959-09-27	@ Odense	L 0-1	1466	1571	27.76%	13.56%	58.68%	-4.9	16
1959-09-27	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1583	1545	50.15%	13.64%	36.20%	+17.2	21
1959-09-27	@ Vejle BK	L 0-3	1545	1583	36.20%	13.64%	50.15%	-17.2	16
1959-10-10	B 1903	W 3-0	1548	1448	58.13%	13.57%	28.30%	+13.8	20
1959-10-10	@ Frem	L 0-3	1448	1548	28.30%	13.57%	58.13%	-13.8	14
1959-10-11	Odense	W 3-2	1528	1576	37.99%	13.65%	48.36%	+7.2	18
1959-10-11	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1576	1528	48.36%	13.65%	37.99%	-7.2	21
1959-10-11	Vejle BK	L 0-2	1580	1600	42.03%	13.66%	44.32%	-13.5	25
1959-10-11	@ B 1909	W 2-0	1600	1580	44.32%	13.66%	42.03%	+13.5	23
1959-10-11	Esbjerg	L 0-4	1380	1495	29.43%	13.57%	56.99%	-18.6	5
1959-10-11	@ B.93	W 4-0	1495	1380	56.99%	13.57%	29.43%	+18.6	16
1959-10-11	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1462	1478	42.51%	13.66%	43.83%	-6.8	16
1959-10-11	@ Koge BK	W 2-1	1478	1462	43.83%	13.66%	42.51%	+6.8	18
1959-10-11	KB Copenhagen	L 1-5	1393	1561	23.45%	13.47%	63.08%	-12.6	17
1959-10-11	@ Skovshoved	W 5-1	1561	1393	63.08%	13.47%	23.45%	+12.6	23
1959-10-24	B.93	W 2-1	1573	1362	69.56%	13.31%	17.13%	+3.0	25
1959-10-24	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1362	1573	17.13%	13.31%	69.56%	-3.0	5
1959-10-25	Odense	L 0-1	1485	1569	33.23%	13.62%	53.16%	-5.8	18
1959-10-25	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1569	1485	53.16%	13.62%	33.23%	+5.8	23
1959-10-25	Aarhus GF	W 4-3	1567	1535	49.31%	13.65%	37.05%	+5.6	27
1959-10-25	@ B 1909	L 3-4	1535	1567	37.05%	13.65%	49.31%	-5.6	18
1959-10-25	Frem	W 3-1	1513	1562	38.00%	13.65%	48.35%	+13.2	18
1959-10-25	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1562	1513	48.35%	13.65%	38.00%	-13.2	20
1959-10-25	Koge BK	W 3-2	1434	1455	41.92%	13.66%	44.42%	+6.7	16
1959-10-25	@ B 1903	L 2-3	1455	1434	44.42%	13.66%	41.92%	-6.7	16
1959-10-25	Skovshoved	L 1-6	1613	1381	71.27%	13.24%	15.49%	-42.9	23
1959-10-25	@ Vejle BK	W 6-1	1381	1613	15.49%	13.24%	71.27%	+42.9	19
1959-11-01	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1529	1479	51.81%	13.63%	34.55%	-19.9	18
1959-11-01	@ Aarhus GF	W 4-1	1479	1529	34.55%	13.63%	51.81%	+19.9	20
1959-11-01	Vejle BK	L 2-4	1359	1570	19.16%	13.36%	67.48%	-5.1	5
1959-11-01	@ B.93	W 4-2	1570	1359	67.48%	13.36%	19.16%	+5.1	25
1959-11-01	KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1549	1576	40.90%	13.65%	45.45%	-16.1	20
1959-11-01	@ Frem	W 4-1	1576	1549	45.45%	13.65%	40.90%	+16.1	27
1959-11-01	Esbjerg	L 1-5	1448	1527	33.96%	13.62%	52.42%	-17.7	16
1959-11-01	@ Koge BK	W 5-1	1527	1448	52.42%	13.62%	33.96%	+17.7	20
1959-11-01	B 1903	W 5-1	1575	1441	62.00%	13.51%	24.49%	+13.1	25
1959-11-01	@ Odense	L 1-5	1441	1575	24.49%	13.51%	62.00%	-13.1	16
1959-11-01	B 1909	L 0-1	1424	1572	25.47%	13.51%	61.01%	-4.6	19
1959-11-01	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1572	1424	61.01%	13.51%	25.47%	+4.6	29
1959-11-08	B.93	W 5-2	1577	1354	70.51%	13.27%	16.22%	+6.0	31
1959-11-08	@ B 1909	L 2-5	1354	1577	16.22%	13.27%	70.51%	-6.0	5
1959-11-08	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1348	1419	34.90%	13.63%	51.48%	+0.6	6
1959-11-08	@ B.93	D 1-1	1419	1348	51.48%	13.63%	34.90%	-0.6	20
1959-11-08	Odense	L 2-3	1544	1588	38.67%	13.65%	47.69%	-5.9	20
1959-11-08	@ Esbjerg	W 3-2	1588	1544	47.69%	13.65%	38.67%	+5.9	27
1959-11-08	AB Gladsaxe	W 4-0	1428	1499	34.93%	13.63%	51.44%	+30.5	18
1959-11-08	@ B 1903	L 0-4	1499	1428	51.44%	13.63%	34.93%	-30.6	20
1959-11-08	Koge BK	W 2-0	1592	1430	64.97%	13.45%	21.58%	+7.4	29
1959-11-08	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1430	1592	21.58%	13.45%	64.97%	-7.4	16
1959-11-08	Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1418	1509	32.34%	13.61%	54.06%	-5.1	20
1959-11-08	@ Skovshoved	W 3-2	1509	1418	54.06%	13.61%	32.34%	+5.1	20
1959-11-08	Frem	W 3-1	1576	1533	50.85%	13.64%	35.51%	+10.1	27
1959-11-08	@ Vejle BK	L 1-3	1533	1576	35.51%	13.64%	50.85%	-10.1	20
1959-11-22	B 1903	W 2-0	1514	1458	52.60%	13.63%	33.77%	+11.1	22
1959-11-22	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1458	1514	33.77%	13.63%	52.60%	-11.1	18
1959-11-22	Esbjerg	D 3-3	1468	1538	35.09%	13.63%	51.28%	+0.4	21
1959-11-22	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 3-3	1538	1468	51.28%	13.63%	35.09%	-0.4	21
1959-11-22	B 1909	L 1-3	1522	1583	36.39%	13.64%	49.97%	-10.3	20
1959-11-22	@ Frem	W 3-1	1583	1522	49.97%	13.64%	36.39%	+10.3	33
1959-11-22	Vejle BK	L 3-4	1423	1586	23.95%	13.48%	62.57%	-3.8	16
1959-11-22	@ Koge BK	W 4-3	1586	1423	62.57%	13.48%	23.95%	+3.8	29
1959-11-22	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1594	1600	44.00%	13.66%	42.34%	-7.0	27
1959-11-22	@ Odense	W 2-1	1600	1594	42.34%	13.66%	44.00%	+7.0	31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1959-10-25	15.49%	Skovshoved	1381	6	@ Vejle BK	1613	1
2	1959-05-17	21.05%	Skovshoved	1390	2	@ Odense	1558	1
3	1959-08-22	21.88%	@ Skovshoved	1386	3	Odense	1568	2
4	1959-05-31	25.86%	@ B.93	1397	2	Frem	1542	0
5	1959-03-15	26.02%	Koge BK	1453	2	@ Vejle BK	1573	0
6	1959-05-31	27.25%	AB Gladsaxe	1477	3	@ Vejle BK	1586	2
7	1959-09-20	28.42%	AB Gladsaxe	1462	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1561	1
8	1959-05-17	29.17%	KB Copenhagen	1486	2	@ Esbjerg	1579	0
9	1959-09-06	29.52%	Skovshoved	1395	1	@ Koge BK	1485	0
10	1959-06-07	30.20%	@ Koge BK	1463	2	B 1909	1571	0
11	1959-08-09	31.41%	@ Skovshoved	1393	2	B 1903	1492	1
12	1959-09-20	32.78%	B 1903	1440	2	@ Esbjerg	1504	1
13	1959-08-23	32.92%	Aarhus GF	1493	3	@ Frem	1556	0
14	1959-05-03	33.39%	@ Koge BK	1454	2	Aarhus GF	1537	1
15	1959-05-10	33.76%	KB Copenhagen	1472	3	@ Aarhus GF	1529	1
16	1959-03-29	33.92%	@ B 1903	1435	4	Odense	1514	2
17	1959-05-30	34.21%	@ Skovshoved	1401	3	Koge BK	1477	1
18	1959-11-01	34.55%	AB Gladsaxe	1479	4	@ Aarhus GF	1529	1
19	1959-04-19	34.57%	Skovshoved	1447	2	@ KB Copenhagen	1497	0
20	1959-08-09	34.86%	Koge BK	1480	3	@ Aarhus GF	1528	1
21	1959-03-21	34.90%	B 1903	1427	1	@ AB Gladsaxe	1474	0
22	1959-11-08	34.93%	@ B 1903	1428	4	AB Gladsaxe	1499	0
23	1959-05-31	36.15%	B 1903	1466	5	@ KB Copenhagen	1504	1
24	1959-03-15	36.37%	@ KB Copenhagen	1488	1	Odense	1548	0
25	1959-09-20	36.50%	Odense	1559	4	@ Vejle BK	1595	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1959-05-03	45.08	@ B 1903	7	1435	42.28%	Skovshoved	0	1453	44.06%	13.66%
2	1959-10-25	42.86	Skovshoved	6	1381	15.49%	@ Vejle BK	1	1613	71.27%	13.24%
3	1959-11-08	30.56	@ B 1903	4	1428	34.93%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1499	51.44%	13.63%
4	1959-08-23	28.83	@ KB Copenhagen	4	1505	38.10%	Esbjerg	0	1553	48.25%	13.65%
5	1959-09-05	27.22	KB Copenhagen	5	1534	50.78%	@ B 1903	0	1468	35.58%	13.63%
6	1959-03-22	25.87	Esbjerg	4	1555	43.68%	@ Odense	0	1540	42.66%	13.66%
7	1959-05-31	24.91	B 1903	5	1466	36.15%	@ KB Copenhagen	1	1504	50.21%	13.64%
8	1959-08-23	24.24	Aarhus GF	3	1493	32.92%	@ Frem	0	1556	53.46%	13.62%
9	1959-06-07	21.46	@ Frem	5	1523	59.15%	Skovshoved	0	1415	27.29%	13.56%
10	1959-08-16	21.09	@ KB Copenhagen	3	1484	40.51%	Aarhus GF	0	1514	45.84%	13.65%
11	1959-08-23	20.16	@ B 1909	4	1566	54.27%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1497	32.12%	13.61%
12	1959-06-04	19.95	@ Odense	6	1538	39.25%	Vejle BK	2	1577	47.10%	13.65%
13	1959-11-01	19.86	AB Gladsaxe	4	1479	34.55%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1529	51.81%	13.63%
14	1959-05-10	19.72	Odense	4	1538	55.07%	@ B.93	0	1439	31.33%	13.60%
15	1959-09-06	19.69	@ Aarhus GF	3	1518	43.97%	Esbjerg	0	1524	42.38%	13.66%
16	1959-03-30	19.40	@ Vejle BK	4	1542	55.64%	B.93	0	1462	30.76%	13.60%
17	1959-05-31	18.82	@ B.93	2	1397	25.86%	Frem	0	1542	60.62%	13.52%
18	1959-03-15	18.76	Koge BK	2	1453	26.02%	@ Vejle BK	0	1573	60.44%	13.54%
19	1959-03-30	18.69	Frem	3	1544	46.44%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1509	39.91%	13.65%
20	1959-10-11	18.65	Esbjerg	4	1495	56.99%	@ B.93	0	1380	29.43%	13.57%
21	1959-08-16	18.19	Frem	3	1538	47.67%	@ Koge BK	0	1494	38.69%	13.65%
22	1959-05-09	17.96	AB Gladsaxe	3	1456	48.21%	@ Skovshoved	0	1408	38.15%	13.65%
23	1959-05-17	17.81	KB Copenhagen	2	1486	29.17%	@ Esbjerg	0	1579	57.25%	13.58%
24	1959-11-01	17.66	Esbjerg	5	1527	52.42%	@ Koge BK	1	1448	33.96%	13.62%
25	1959-06-07	17.50	@ Koge BK	2	1463	30.20%	B 1909	0	1571	56.22%	13.58%