1958 1st Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Vejle BK

30 points · 1st Title

Relegated

KFUM

11 pts

AIA Tranbjerg · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Odense

5.00 points above expected

28 points · 23.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KFUM

7.57 points below expected

11 points · 18.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Vejle BK Champion	22	14	2	6	30	66	32	+34	26.83	+3.17
2	Frem	22	13	3	6	29	59	44	+15	24.65	+4.35
3	Odense	22	12	4	6	28	58	42	+16	23.00	+5.00
4	B 1909	22	13	2	7	28	49	38	+11	23.00	+5.00
5	Esbjerg	22	11	4	7	26	54	40	+14	22.45	+3.55
6	Aarhus GF	22	9	7	6	25	36	28	+8	24.09	+0.91
7	KB Copenhagen	22	10	4	8	24	48	48	0	23.37	+0.63
8	AB Gladsaxe	22	6	5	11	17	35	46	-11	20.65	-3.65
9	Koge BK	22	6	5	11	17	34	49	-15	18.49	-1.49
10	Skovshoved	22	6	3	13	15	30	51	-21	21.03	-6.03
11	AIA Tranbjerg Relegated	22	5	4	13	14	36	59	-23	17.88	-3.88
12	KFUM Relegated	22	4	3	15	11	32	60	-28	18.57	-7.57

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Vejle BK	1619	30	26.83	+3.17	81.7%	12	20	24	27	30	33	40
Esbjerg	1584	26	22.45	+3.55	83.8%	6	16	20	22	25	29	38
Odense	1583	28	23.00	+5.00	91.0%	7	16	20	23	26	30	38
Frem	1582	29	24.65	+4.35	88.4%	10	18	22	25	27	31	38
Aarhus GF	1571	25	24.09	+0.91	62.8%	9	17	21	24	27	31	38
B 1909	1529	28	23.00	+5.00	90.5%	4	16	20	23	26	30	39
KB Copenhagen	1479	24	23.37	+0.63	60.4%	8	16	20	23	26	30	39
AB Gladsaxe	1463	17	20.65	-3.65	22.4%	7	14	18	21	24	27	37
Koge BK	1420	17	18.49	-1.49	40.0%	3	12	16	19	21	25	33
Skovshoved	1402	15	21.03	-6.03	9.4%	5	14	18	21	24	28	35
AIA Tranbjerg	1395	14	17.88	-3.88	20.1%	5	11	15	18	21	24	33
KFUM	1394	11	18.57	-7.57	4.0%	4	12	16	19	21	25	35

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AT	AG	B1	ESB	FRE	KC	KFU	KB	ODE	SKO	VB
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-1-0 3.24	0-0-2 2.53	1-0-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 2.56	1-1-0 2.11	1-1-0 3.00	0-0-2 3.17	0-0-2 2.36	2-0-0 2.75	0-0-2 2.34
AIA Tranbjerg	0-1-1 2.39	—	0-1-1 2.28	0-0-2 2.18	1-0-1 2.26	0-0-2 2.11	1-1-0 2.40	2-0-0 2.36	0-0-2 2.98	0-1-1 1.95	0-0-2 2.54	1-0-1 1.34
Aarhus GF	2-0-0 3.10	1-1-0 3.36	—	1-1-0 2.85	2-0-0 3.06	0-0-2 2.90	1-0-1 2.98	1-1-0 3.54	0-2-0 3.73	0-0-2 3.24	1-1-0 3.23	0-1-1 2.16
B 1909	1-0-1 3.11	2-0-0 3.45	0-1-1 2.78	—	1-0-1 3.09	0-0-2 2.55	1-1-0 2.67	1-0-1 3.29	2-0-0 3.34	2-0-0 2.71	2-0-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.48
Esbjerg	1-1-0 3.35	1-0-1 3.38	0-0-2 2.57	1-0-1 2.55	—	2-0-0 2.15	0-0-2 2.90	2-0-0 3.48	1-1-0 3.38	1-0-1 2.72	0-2-0 3.10	2-0-0 2.19
Frem	1-1-0 3.07	2-0-0 3.52	2-0-0 2.74	2-0-0 3.08	0-0-2 3.49	—	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 3.56	1-1-0 3.72	0-1-1 3.07	2-0-0 3.11	1-0-1 2.58
KB Copenhagen	0-1-1 3.52	0-1-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.96	2-0-0 2.73	1-0-1 2.57	—	2-0-0 3.71	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.41	1-0-1 3.30	0-0-2 2.51
KFUM	0-1-1 2.63	0-0-2 3.27	0-1-1 2.10	1-0-1 2.34	0-0-2 2.15	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 1.93	—	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.11	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 1.72
Koge BK	2-0-0 2.46	2-0-0 2.65	0-2-0 1.91	0-0-2 2.29	0-1-1 2.25	0-1-1 1.92	0-0-2 2.29	1-0-1 2.86	—	0-1-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-2 2.02
Odense	2-0-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.68	2-0-0 2.40	0-0-2 2.92	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.52	1-1-0 3.01	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.18
Skovshoved	0-0-2 2.88	2-0-0 3.09	0-1-1 2.40	0-0-2 2.64	0-2-0 2.53	0-0-2 2.53	1-0-1 2.33	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.87	—	0-0-2 2.27
Vejle BK	2-0-0 3.29	1-0-1 4.31	1-1-0 3.48	1-0-1 3.16	0-0-2 3.45	1-0-1 3.05	2-0-0 3.12	1-1-0 3.92	2-0-0 3.62	1-0-1 3.46	2-0-0 3.37	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+4.8
Allowed	0.66	-5.7
Differential	0.94	+3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.76%	4.55%	3.41%	3.79%	0.38%	2.27%	15.15%
1	4.55%	9.85%	5.68%	5.30%	3.79%	1.89%	31.06%
2	3.41%	5.68%	3.79%	3.79%	1.89%	2.27%	20.83%
3	3.79%	5.30%	3.79%	1.52%	1.14%	0.76%	16.29%
4	0.38%	3.79%	1.89%	1.14%	1.52%	0.38%	9.09%
5+	2.27%	1.89%	2.27%	0.76%	0.38%	—	7.58%
Total	15.15%	31.06%	20.83%	16.29%	9.09%	7.58%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.03	2.03	+0.00
SD	1.65	1.65	2.50
CV	0.81	0.81	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	45.45%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	27.27%	22.73%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	2.09	-0.50
SD	1.18	1.54	1.97
CV	0.74	0.74	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	36.36%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.68	-1.05
SD	1.40	1.99	2.65
CV	0.85	0.74	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	13.64%	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	40.91%	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.27	+0.36
SD	1.56	0.98	2.22
CV	0.95	0.77	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	45.45%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.23	1.73	+0.50
SD	1.69	1.49	2.52
CV	0.76	0.86	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%
1	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
5+	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	31.82%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.45	1.82	+0.64
SD	1.87	1.59	2.87
CV	0.76	0.88	—
Max	6	7	+6
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	13.64%	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	13.64%	36.36%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.68	2.00	+0.68
SD	1.91	1.41	2.57
CV	0.71	0.71	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
1	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	45.45%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	36.36%	13.64%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	2.18	+0.00
SD	1.10	1.76	2.18
CV	0.50	0.81	—
Max	4	8	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	13.64%	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	22.73%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.73	-1.27
SD	1.26	1.91	2.37
CV	0.87	0.70	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	40.91%
2	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	2.23	-0.68
SD	1.37	1.72	2.25
CV	0.89	0.77	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
2	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	45.45%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
5+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	36.36%	13.64%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.64	1.91	+0.73
SD	1.47	1.66	2.05
CV	0.56	0.87	—
Max	6	7	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	50.00%
2	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	31.82%	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	2.32	-0.95
SD	1.14	1.94	2.32
CV	0.83	0.84	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
Total	27.27%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.00	1.45	+1.55
SD	2.54	1.26	2.72
CV	0.85	0.87	—
Max	8	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Odense	28	23.00	+5.00
2	B 1909	28	23.00	+5.00
3	Frem	29	24.65	+4.35
4	Esbjerg	26	22.45	+3.55
5	Vejle BK	30	26.83	+3.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	KFUM	11	18.57	-7.57
2	Skovshoved	15	21.03	-6.03
3	AIA Tranbjerg	14	17.88	-3.88
4	AB Gladsaxe	17	20.65	-3.65
5	Koge BK	17	18.49	-1.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Odense	6	Jun 15 – Sep 21	1 in 75
2	Vejle BK	4	Apr 20 – May 28	1 in 23
3	KB Copenhagen	3	Apr 13 – May 2	1 in 18
4	Esbjerg	3	Apr 13 – Apr 27	1 in 16
5	AB Gladsaxe	3	Sep 21 – Oct 5	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KFUM	6	Mar 29 – Apr 27	1 in 154
2	KB Copenhagen	5	Sep 27 – Nov 16	1 in 137
3	AIA Tranbjerg	6	Apr 13 – May 28	1 in 82
4	Skovshoved	5	Aug 24 – Oct 5	1 in 49
5	Esbjerg	4	Aug 24 – Sep 28	1 in 49

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Odense	8	Jun 5 – Sep 21	1 in 30
2	Esbjerg	7	May 4 – Aug 17	1 in 23
3	B 1909	5	Jun 1 – Aug 24	1 in 18
4	KB Copenhagen	5	Mar 30 – May 2	1 in 16
5	AB Gladsaxe	4	May 22 – Jun 7	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	8	May 4 – Aug 24	1 in 148
2	AIA Tranbjerg	12	Apr 7 – Aug 24	1 in 90
3	Esbjerg	6	Aug 10 – Sep 28	1 in 42
4	Koge BK	8	Apr 27 – Aug 17	1 in 32
5	KB Copenhagen	6	Sep 27 – Nov 23	1 in 26

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Vejle BK	35.09%	19.90%	12.81%	9.40%	7.03%	5.01%	3.77%	2.92%	1.91%	1.19%	0.72%	0.25%
Frem	15.59%	15.28%	13.65%	11.67%	10.56%	8.65%	7.40%	6.00%	4.55%	3.06%	2.51%	1.08%
Odense	8.12%	10.69%	10.80%	11.52%	10.58%	9.86%	9.88%	8.20%	7.46%	5.71%	4.53%	2.65%
B 1909	7.87%	10.45%	10.52%	10.67%	10.91%	10.30%	9.72%	8.86%	7.62%	5.47%	4.64%	2.97%
Esbjerg	6.11%	8.62%	10.06%	10.65%	10.74%	10.65%	9.61%	9.54%	8.09%	6.92%	5.39%	3.62%
Aarhus GF	11.73%	12.78%	13.02%	11.96%	10.65%	9.66%	8.77%	6.91%	5.39%	4.37%	3.05%	1.71%
KB Copenhagen	8.52%	10.05%	11.32%	11.12%	10.62%	10.81%	9.31%	8.29%	7.08%	5.74%	4.50%	2.64%
AB Gladsaxe	2.34%	3.85%	5.51%	6.83%	8.22%	9.37%	9.88%	11.39%	11.25%	11.82%	10.76%	8.78%
Koge BK	0.76%	1.38%	1.98%	3.50%	4.94%	6.14%	7.67%	9.84%	12.24%	14.63%	17.13%	19.79%
Skovshoved	2.62%	4.59%	6.42%	7.15%	7.72%	9.30%	9.86%	10.48%	11.79%	11.37%	10.34%	8.36%
AIA Tranbjerg	0.43%	0.92%	1.56%	2.39%	3.64%	4.64%	6.72%	8.67%	11.16%	14.76%	18.73%	26.38%
KFUM	0.82%	1.49%	2.35%	3.14%	4.39%	5.61%	7.41%	8.90%	11.46%	14.96%	17.70%	21.77%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.30%

Slight Edge

43.94%17.42%38.64%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 18.44 Elo pts.

118 Elo

0.009 goals per Elo point

0300

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.39 goals

Neutral

-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.4

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

35%

Vejle BK, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.3 * Some Luck: 3.3 to 4.95 * Lucky: 4.95 to 6.6 * Wild Swing: 6.6 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.08 * Close: 2.08 to 3.12 * Off: 3.12 to 4.16 * Way Off: 4.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.15 * A Surprise: 1.15 to 1.85 * Several Surprises: 1.85 to 2.54 * Many Surprises: 2.54 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.25 points

Some Luck

04.1310

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.67

Pinpoint

02.606

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

91.00%

Odense

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.95%

KFUM

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.43

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

78%

Clear Edge

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

48%

Frequent

0%45%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.20

Notable Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.07

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.07

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

33%

As Expected

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

Shaky Favorites

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.59

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.94

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.052

Well Within Noise

00.1390.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Vejle BK	99.03%	0.97%
Frem	96.41%	3.59%
Aarhus GF	95.24%	4.76%
KB Copenhagen	92.86%	7.14%
Odense	92.82%	7.18%
B 1909	92.39%	7.61%
Esbjerg	90.99%	9.01%
Skovshoved	81.30%	18.70%
AB Gladsaxe	80.46%	19.54%
Koge BK	63.08%	36.92%
KFUM	60.53%	39.47%
AIA Tranbjerg	54.89%	45.11%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1958-03-29	KFUM	W 2-0	1525	1518	45.60%	18.47%	35.93%	+14.1	2
1958-03-29	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1518	1525	35.93%	18.47%	45.60%	-14.1	0
1958-03-30	Koge BK	L 0-1	1473	1470	45.08%	18.47%	36.45%	-9.0	0
1958-03-30	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 1-0	1470	1473	36.45%	18.47%	45.08%	+9.0	2
1958-03-30	KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1500	1483	47.06%	18.46%	34.49%	-8.4	0
1958-03-30	@ Esbjerg	W 3-2	1483	1500	34.49%	18.46%	47.06%	+8.4	2
1958-03-30	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1523	1536	42.80%	18.48%	38.72%	+21.8	2
1958-03-30	@ Frem	L 0-3	1536	1523	38.72%	18.48%	42.80%	-21.8	0
1958-03-30	B 1909	L 4-5	1490	1495	44.05%	18.47%	37.47%	-7.6	0
1958-03-30	@ Odense	W 5-4	1495	1490	37.47%	18.47%	44.05%	+7.6	2
1958-03-30	Vejle BK	L 1-2	1512	1495	47.05%	18.46%	34.49%	-8.8	0
1958-03-30	@ Skovshoved	W 2-1	1495	1512	34.49%	18.46%	47.05%	+8.8	2
1958-04-03	KFUM	W 5-1	1464	1504	38.98%	18.47%	42.55%	+25.6	2
1958-04-03	@ AIA Tranbjerg	L 1-5	1504	1464	42.55%	18.47%	38.98%	-25.6	0
1958-04-03	Frem	D 2-2	1479	1544	35.53%	18.44%	46.03%	+0.3	3
1958-04-03	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1544	1479	46.03%	18.44%	35.53%	-0.3	3
1958-04-06	Odense	D 3-3	1544	1483	52.79%	18.38%	28.84%	-0.7	4
1958-04-06	@ Frem	D 3-3	1483	1544	28.84%	18.38%	52.79%	+0.7	1
1958-04-07	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1514	1539	41.14%	18.48%	40.38%	+7.8	2
1958-04-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1539	1514	40.38%	18.48%	41.14%	-7.8	2
1958-04-07	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1502	1492	46.14%	18.46%	35.40%	+20.2	4
1958-04-07	@ B 1909	L 0-3	1492	1502	35.40%	18.46%	46.14%	-20.2	0
1958-04-07	AIA Tranbjerg	D 3-3	1491	1490	44.85%	18.47%	36.68%	-0.2	3
1958-04-07	@ KB Copenhagen	D 3-3	1490	1491	36.68%	18.47%	44.85%	+0.2	3
1958-04-07	Skovshoved	L 0-1	1479	1504	41.17%	18.48%	40.35%	-8.3	0
1958-04-07	@ KFUM	W 1-0	1504	1479	40.35%	18.48%	41.17%	+8.4	2
1958-04-07	Koge BK	W 1-0	1504	1480	47.99%	18.45%	33.57%	+7.1	4
1958-04-07	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1480	1504	33.57%	18.45%	47.99%	-7.1	3
1958-04-13	AIA Tranbjerg	W 3-0	1522	1490	49.01%	18.44%	32.55%	+18.8	4
1958-04-13	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1490	1522	32.55%	18.44%	49.01%	-18.8	3
1958-04-13	Frem	D 1-1	1532	1543	43.02%	18.48%	38.51%	-0.2	3
1958-04-13	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1543	1532	38.51%	18.48%	43.02%	+0.2	5
1958-04-13	Vejle BK	W 2-1	1471	1511	39.07%	18.47%	42.46%	+8.1	2
1958-04-13	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1511	1471	42.46%	18.47%	39.07%	-8.1	4
1958-04-13	KFUM	W 3-2	1473	1470	44.98%	18.47%	36.55%	+6.8	5
1958-04-13	@ Koge BK	L 2-3	1470	1473	36.55%	18.47%	44.98%	-6.8	0
1958-04-13	KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1483	1491	43.61%	18.48%	37.91%	-7.8	1
1958-04-13	@ Odense	W 3-2	1491	1483	37.91%	18.48%	43.61%	+7.8	5
1958-04-13	B 1909	L 2-3	1512	1522	43.21%	18.48%	38.31%	-7.8	2
1958-04-13	@ Skovshoved	W 3-2	1522	1512	38.31%	18.48%	43.21%	+7.8	6
1958-04-19	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1544	1499	50.69%	18.41%	30.89%	-16.3	5
1958-04-19	@ Frem	W 3-1	1499	1544	30.89%	18.41%	50.69%	+16.3	7
1958-04-20	Koge BK	L 1-3	1531	1479	51.59%	18.40%	30.01%	-16.6	3
1958-04-20	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1479	1531	30.01%	18.40%	51.59%	+16.6	7
1958-04-20	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1471	1480	43.51%	18.48%	38.01%	-14.3	3
1958-04-20	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 3-1	1480	1471	38.01%	18.48%	43.51%	+14.3	4
1958-04-20	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1464	1541	33.90%	18.42%	47.68%	-6.7	0
1958-04-20	@ KFUM	W 2-1	1541	1464	47.68%	18.42%	33.90%	+6.7	6
1958-04-20	Skovshoved	L 0-1	1475	1504	40.59%	18.48%	40.93%	-8.3	1
1958-04-20	@ Odense	W 1-0	1504	1475	40.93%	18.48%	40.59%	+8.3	4
1958-04-20	B 1909	W 3-0	1503	1530	40.81%	18.48%	40.71%	+22.7	6
1958-04-20	@ Vejle BK	L 0-3	1530	1503	40.71%	18.48%	40.81%	-22.7	6
1958-04-27	Frem	L 3-4	1457	1527	34.81%	18.43%	46.75%	-6.4	3
1958-04-27	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 4-3	1527	1457	46.75%	18.43%	34.81%	+6.3	7
1958-04-27	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1508	1548	39.00%	18.47%	42.53%	+0.2	7
1958-04-27	@ B 1909	D 1-1	1548	1508	42.53%	18.47%	39.00%	-0.2	7
1958-04-27	Esbjerg	L 2-4	1457	1494	39.45%	18.47%	42.08%	-11.8	0
1958-04-27	@ KFUM	W 4-2	1494	1457	42.08%	18.47%	39.45%	+11.8	6
1958-04-27	Odense	D 2-2	1496	1467	48.61%	18.44%	32.95%	-0.5	8
1958-04-27	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1467	1496	32.95%	18.44%	48.61%	+0.5	2
1958-04-30	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1506	1547	38.75%	18.47%	42.78%	-7.5	6
1958-04-30	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1547	1506	42.78%	18.47%	38.75%	+7.5	9
1958-05-01	Frem	L 1-2	1508	1534	41.02%	18.48%	40.51%	-7.9	7
1958-05-01	@ B 1909	W 2-1	1534	1508	40.51%	18.48%	41.02%	+7.9	9
1958-05-02	Vejle BK	L 0-6	1515	1526	43.16%	18.48%	38.37%	-45.5	3
1958-05-02	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 6-0	1526	1515	38.37%	18.48%	43.16%	+45.5	8
1958-05-02	Koge BK	W 3-1	1515	1496	47.35%	18.45%	34.20%	+11.7	9
1958-05-02	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1496	1515	34.20%	18.45%	47.35%	-11.7	8
1958-05-04	Odense	L 1-2	1555	1468	55.88%	18.30%	25.82%	-10.3	9
1958-05-04	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1468	1555	25.82%	18.30%	55.88%	+10.3	4
1958-05-04	KFUM	L 0-3	1500	1445	51.94%	18.39%	29.67%	-28.0	7
1958-05-04	@ B 1909	W 3-0	1445	1500	29.67%	18.39%	51.94%	+28.0	2
1958-05-04	Esbjerg	L 0-1	1541	1498	50.49%	18.42%	31.09%	-10.0	9
1958-05-04	@ Frem	W 1-0	1498	1541	31.09%	18.42%	50.49%	+10.0	8
1958-05-04	AIA Tranbjerg	W 4-1	1512	1451	52.84%	18.37%	28.79%	+14.3	6
1958-05-04	@ Skovshoved	L 1-4	1451	1512	28.79%	18.37%	52.84%	-14.3	3
1958-05-11	Skovshoved	D 1-1	1545	1527	47.12%	18.46%	34.42%	-0.5	10
1958-05-11	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1527	1545	34.42%	18.46%	47.12%	+0.5	7
1958-05-18	B 1909	L 0-2	1436	1472	39.62%	18.47%	41.90%	-15.3	3
1958-05-18	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 2-0	1472	1436	41.90%	18.47%	39.62%	+15.3	9
1958-05-18	Skovshoved	D 2-2	1508	1527	41.96%	18.48%	39.56%	-0.1	9
1958-05-18	@ Esbjerg	D 2-2	1527	1508	39.56%	18.48%	41.96%	+0.1	8
1958-05-18	Vejle BK	L 2-3	1527	1571	38.38%	18.47%	43.15%	-7.0	9
1958-05-18	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-2	1571	1527	43.15%	18.47%	38.38%	+7.1	10
1958-05-18	Frem	L 3-5	1473	1531	36.44%	18.45%	45.10%	-10.4	2
1958-05-18	@ KFUM	W 5-3	1531	1473	45.10%	18.45%	36.44%	+10.4	11
1958-05-18	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1484	1544	36.18%	18.45%	45.37%	+0.4	9
1958-05-18	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1544	1484	45.37%	18.45%	36.18%	-0.4	11
1958-05-18	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1478	1469	45.88%	18.47%	35.66%	+7.0	6
1958-05-18	@ Odense	L 1-2	1469	1478	35.66%	18.47%	45.88%	-7.0	3
1958-05-22	B 1909	W 4-2	1462	1487	41.16%	18.48%	40.36%	+12.0	5
1958-05-22	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1487	1462	40.36%	18.48%	41.16%	-12.0	9
1958-05-28	AIA Tranbjerg	W 1-0	1578	1421	63.21%	17.99%	18.80%	+4.2	12
1958-05-28	@ Vejle BK	L 0-1	1421	1578	18.80%	17.99%	63.21%	-4.2	3
1958-06-01	KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1544	1520	47.95%	18.45%	33.60%	-26.0	11
1958-06-01	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1520	1544	33.60%	18.45%	47.95%	+26.0	11
1958-06-01	AIA Tranbjerg	D 1-1	1474	1417	52.29%	18.39%	29.32%	-1.0	6
1958-06-01	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1417	1474	29.32%	18.39%	52.29%	+1.0	4
1958-06-01	Koge BK	W 3-1	1475	1484	43.41%	18.48%	38.11%	+12.8	11
1958-06-01	@ B 1909	L 1-3	1484	1475	38.11%	18.48%	43.41%	-12.8	9
1958-06-01	Odense	W 3-2	1508	1485	47.83%	18.45%	33.72%	+6.3	11
1958-06-01	@ Esbjerg	L 2-3	1485	1508	33.72%	18.45%	47.83%	-6.3	6
1958-06-01	Skovshoved	W 5-2	1542	1527	46.68%	18.46%	34.86%	+14.6	13
1958-06-01	@ Frem	L 2-5	1527	1542	34.86%	18.46%	46.68%	-14.6	8
1958-06-01	KFUM	D 4-4	1582	1463	59.47%	18.17%	22.35%	-0.9	13
1958-06-01	@ Vejle BK	D 4-4	1463	1582	22.35%	18.17%	59.47%	+0.9	3
1958-06-04	AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1546	1473	54.13%	18.35%	27.53%	-1.2	12
1958-06-04	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1473	1546	27.53%	18.35%	54.13%	+1.2	7
1958-06-05	Vejle BK	W 4-2	1479	1581	30.58%	18.36%	51.06%	+14.7	8
1958-06-05	@ Odense	L 2-4	1581	1479	51.06%	18.36%	30.58%	-14.7	13
1958-06-07	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1513	1474	49.85%	18.43%	31.72%	-9.8	8
1958-06-07	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1474	1513	31.72%	18.43%	49.85%	+9.8	9
1958-06-08	KFUM	W 4-1	1544	1464	55.12%	18.32%	26.56%	+13.3	14
1958-06-08	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1464	1544	26.56%	18.32%	55.12%	-13.4	3
1958-06-08	Esbjerg	L 2-6	1471	1514	38.59%	18.47%	42.95%	-20.0	9
1958-06-08	@ Koge BK	W 6-2	1514	1471	42.95%	18.47%	38.59%	+20.0	13
1958-06-08	AIA Tranbjerg	D 1-1	1493	1418	54.49%	18.34%	27.17%	-1.2	9
1958-06-08	@ Odense	D 1-1	1418	1493	27.17%	18.34%	54.49%	+1.2	5
1958-06-08	Frem	W 5-0	1567	1556	46.10%	18.46%	35.44%	+32.6	15
1958-06-08	@ Vejle BK	L 0-5	1556	1567	35.44%	18.46%	46.10%	-32.6	13
1958-06-11	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1503	1558	36.92%	18.46%	44.62%	-12.5	8
1958-06-11	@ Skovshoved	W 3-1	1558	1503	44.62%	18.46%	36.92%	+12.5	16
1958-06-14	B 1909	D 1-1	1570	1488	55.30%	18.32%	26.38%	-1.3	17
1958-06-14	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1488	1570	26.38%	18.32%	55.30%	+1.3	12
1958-06-14	Koge BK	W 1-0	1491	1451	49.96%	18.42%	31.62%	+6.7	10
1958-06-14	@ Skovshoved	L 0-1	1451	1491	31.62%	18.42%	49.96%	-6.7	9
1958-06-15	Vejle BK	D 0-0	1518	1599	33.29%	18.41%	48.30%	+0.7	12
1958-06-15	@ Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1599	1518	48.30%	18.41%	33.29%	-0.7	16
1958-06-15	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1534	1484	51.36%	18.40%	30.24%	+12.2	15
1958-06-15	@ Esbjerg	L 0-2	1484	1534	30.24%	18.40%	51.36%	-12.2	9
1958-06-15	Odense	L 0-3	1450	1492	38.76%	18.47%	42.77%	-21.8	3
1958-06-15	@ KFUM	W 3-0	1492	1450	42.77%	18.47%	38.76%	+21.8	11
1958-08-09	AB Gladsaxe	W 4-3	1524	1472	51.58%	18.40%	30.02%	+5.6	15
1958-08-09	@ Frem	L 3-4	1472	1524	30.02%	18.40%	51.58%	-5.6	9
1958-08-10	Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1419	1518	31.03%	18.37%	50.60%	+0.7	6
1958-08-10	@ AIA Tranbjerg	D 2-2	1518	1419	50.60%	18.37%	31.03%	-0.6	13
1958-08-10	Koge BK	D 1-1	1547	1445	57.54%	18.25%	24.21%	-1.5	16
1958-08-10	@ Esbjerg	D 1-1	1445	1547	24.21%	18.25%	57.54%	+1.5	10
1958-08-10	B 1909	L 1-4	1429	1489	36.12%	18.45%	45.44%	-17.3	3
1958-08-10	@ KFUM	W 4-1	1489	1429	45.44%	18.45%	36.12%	+17.3	14
1958-08-10	Odense	L 2-4	1497	1514	42.34%	18.48%	39.18%	-12.5	10
1958-08-10	@ Skovshoved	W 4-2	1514	1497	39.18%	18.48%	42.34%	+12.5	13
1958-08-10	KB Copenhagen	W 8-3	1599	1569	48.70%	18.44%	32.86%	+19.1	18
1958-08-10	@ Vejle BK	L 3-8	1569	1599	32.86%	18.44%	48.70%	-19.1	17
1958-08-16	Skovshoved	L 2-3	1550	1485	53.24%	18.37%	28.40%	-9.3	17
1958-08-16	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-2	1485	1550	28.40%	18.37%	53.24%	+9.3	12
1958-08-17	KFUM	D 1-1	1518	1411	58.05%	18.23%	23.72%	-1.6	14
1958-08-17	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1411	1518	23.72%	18.23%	58.05%	+1.6	4
1958-08-17	Esbjerg	D 4-4	1466	1545	33.71%	18.42%	47.87%	+0.3	10
1958-08-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 4-4	1545	1466	47.87%	18.42%	33.71%	-0.3	17
1958-08-17	Vejle BK	W 2-0	1507	1618	29.55%	18.34%	52.11%	+19.3	16
1958-08-17	@ B 1909	L 0-2	1618	1507	52.11%	18.34%	29.55%	-19.3	18
1958-08-17	AIA Tranbjerg	W 7-1	1530	1420	58.42%	18.22%	23.36%	+22.3	17
1958-08-17	@ Frem	L 1-7	1420	1530	23.36%	18.22%	58.42%	-22.3	6
1958-08-17	Koge BK	W 6-2	1526	1446	55.04%	18.32%	26.63%	+14.7	15
1958-08-17	@ Odense	L 2-6	1446	1526	26.63%	18.32%	55.04%	-14.7	10
1958-08-24	Odense	L 2-6	1397	1541	25.74%	18.23%	56.04%	-14.2	6
1958-08-24	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 6-2	1541	1397	56.04%	18.23%	25.74%	+14.2	17
1958-08-24	Skovshoved	W 4-1	1526	1494	48.99%	18.44%	32.57%	+15.9	18
1958-08-24	@ B 1909	L 1-4	1494	1526	32.57%	18.44%	48.99%	-15.9	12
1958-08-24	Esbjerg	W 3-1	1541	1545	44.10%	18.47%	37.43%	+12.6	19
1958-08-24	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1545	1541	37.43%	18.47%	44.10%	-12.6	17
1958-08-24	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1432	1467	39.67%	18.47%	41.86%	+13.8	12
1958-08-24	@ Koge BK	L 1-3	1467	1432	41.86%	18.47%	39.67%	-13.8	10
1958-08-24	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1598	1516	55.30%	18.32%	26.38%	+5.4	20
1958-08-24	@ Vejle BK	L 1-2	1516	1598	26.38%	18.32%	55.30%	-5.4	14
1958-08-28	KFUM	L 1-3	1552	1413	61.46%	18.09%	20.45%	-19.6	17
1958-08-28	@ Frem	W 3-1	1413	1552	20.45%	18.09%	61.46%	+19.6	6
1958-09-06	Frem	L 0-6	1478	1532	37.03%	18.46%	44.52%	-40.1	12
1958-09-06	@ Skovshoved	W 6-0	1532	1478	44.52%	18.46%	37.03%	+40.1	19
1958-09-07	B 1909	W 1-0	1511	1542	40.27%	18.48%	41.26%	+8.4	16
1958-09-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1542	1511	41.26%	18.48%	40.27%	-8.4	18
1958-09-07	Odense	L 0-2	1453	1555	30.66%	18.37%	50.97%	-12.3	10
1958-09-07	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1555	1453	50.97%	18.37%	30.66%	+12.3	19
1958-09-07	AIA Tranbjerg	L 1-2	1532	1383	62.43%	18.03%	19.53%	-11.5	17
1958-09-07	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1383	1532	19.53%	18.03%	62.43%	+11.5	8
1958-09-07	Vejle BK	L 2-6	1432	1604	22.75%	18.11%	59.15%	-12.8	6
1958-09-07	@ KFUM	W 6-2	1604	1432	59.15%	18.11%	22.75%	+12.8	22
1958-09-07	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1445	1553	29.96%	18.35%	51.69%	-12.1	12
1958-09-07	@ Koge BK	W 2-0	1553	1445	51.69%	18.35%	29.96%	+12.1	21
1958-09-20	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1420	1565	25.52%	18.22%	56.26%	-5.2	6
1958-09-20	@ KFUM	W 2-1	1565	1420	56.26%	18.22%	25.52%	+5.3	23
1958-09-21	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1395	1441	38.15%	18.47%	43.39%	-7.4	8
1958-09-21	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 2-1	1441	1395	43.39%	18.47%	38.15%	+7.4	12
1958-09-21	B 1909	W 2-0	1572	1533	49.93%	18.43%	31.64%	+12.7	21
1958-09-21	@ Frem	L 0-2	1533	1572	31.64%	18.43%	49.93%	-12.7	18
1958-09-21	Vejle BK	L 1-4	1433	1617	21.55%	18.05%	60.40%	-11.1	12
1958-09-21	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1617	1433	60.40%	18.05%	21.55%	+11.1	24
1958-09-21	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1567	1521	50.95%	18.41%	30.64%	+6.2	21
1958-09-21	@ Odense	L 1-2	1521	1567	30.64%	18.41%	50.95%	-6.2	17
1958-09-21	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1438	1519	33.40%	18.42%	48.19%	-11.5	12
1958-09-21	@ Skovshoved	W 3-1	1519	1438	48.19%	18.42%	33.40%	+11.5	18
1958-09-27	Frem	L 3-4	1570	1585	42.63%	18.48%	38.89%	-7.5	23
1958-09-27	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-3	1585	1570	38.89%	18.48%	42.63%	+7.5	23
1958-09-28	Esbjerg	W 7-0	1531	1514	46.89%	18.46%	34.65%	+43.9	20
1958-09-28	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-7	1514	1531	34.65%	18.46%	46.89%	-43.9	17
1958-09-28	Skovshoved	W 3-1	1448	1427	47.61%	18.45%	33.94%	+11.6	14
1958-09-28	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1427	1448	33.94%	18.45%	47.61%	-11.6	12
1958-09-28	AIA Tranbjerg	W 5-1	1521	1387	60.91%	18.11%	20.98%	+14.0	20
1958-09-28	@ B 1909	L 1-5	1387	1521	20.98%	18.11%	60.91%	-14.0	8
1958-09-28	Koge BK	W 4-0	1414	1422	43.59%	18.48%	37.94%	+28.0	8
1958-09-28	@ KFUM	L 0-4	1422	1414	37.94%	18.48%	43.59%	-28.0	12
1958-09-28	Odense	W 7-2	1628	1574	51.86%	18.39%	29.75%	+19.5	26
1958-09-28	@ Vejle BK	L 2-7	1574	1628	29.75%	18.39%	51.86%	-19.5	21
1958-10-05	KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1460	1563	30.53%	18.36%	51.11%	+27.5	16
1958-10-05	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1563	1460	51.11%	18.36%	30.53%	-27.5	23
1958-10-05	Vejle BK	W 2-0	1373	1647	14.02%	17.47%	68.52%	+25.1	10
1958-10-05	@ AIA Tranbjerg	L 0-2	1647	1373	68.52%	17.47%	14.02%	-25.2	26
1958-10-05	Frem	W 4-1	1470	1593	28.23%	18.31%	53.46%	+24.2	19
1958-10-05	@ Esbjerg	L 1-4	1593	1470	53.46%	18.31%	28.23%	-24.2	23
1958-10-05	B 1909	L 1-4	1394	1535	26.08%	18.24%	55.68%	-13.1	12
1958-10-05	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1535	1394	55.68%	18.24%	26.08%	+13.1	22
1958-10-05	Aarhus GF	W 3-0	1554	1574	41.82%	18.48%	39.70%	+22.2	23
1958-10-05	@ Odense	L 0-3	1574	1554	39.70%	18.48%	41.82%	-22.2	20
1958-10-05	KFUM	L 0-1	1415	1442	40.81%	18.48%	40.71%	-8.3	12
1958-10-05	@ Skovshoved	W 1-0	1442	1415	40.71%	18.48%	40.81%	+8.3	10
1958-10-18	AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1451	1487	39.48%	18.47%	42.05%	+0.1	11
1958-10-18	@ KFUM	D 1-1	1487	1451	42.05%	18.47%	39.48%	-0.1	17
1958-10-19	Skovshoved	L 1-4	1398	1407	43.51%	18.48%	38.01%	-20.2	10
1958-10-19	@ AIA Tranbjerg	W 4-1	1407	1398	38.01%	18.48%	43.51%	+20.2	14
1958-10-19	Odense	W 2-1	1548	1576	40.64%	18.48%	40.88%	+7.8	24
1958-10-19	@ B 1909	L 1-2	1576	1548	40.88%	18.48%	40.64%	-7.8	23
1958-10-19	Koge BK	W 3-2	1568	1381	65.90%	17.81%	16.28%	+3.3	25
1958-10-19	@ Frem	L 2-3	1381	1568	16.28%	17.81%	65.90%	-3.3	12
1958-10-19	Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1535	1552	42.31%	18.48%	39.21%	-23.4	23
1958-10-19	@ KB Copenhagen	W 3-0	1552	1535	39.21%	18.48%	42.31%	+23.4	22
1958-10-19	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1622	1495	60.27%	18.14%	21.59%	-19.2	26
1958-10-19	@ Vejle BK	W 3-1	1495	1622	21.59%	18.14%	60.27%	+19.2	21
1958-11-02	Koge BK	D 1-1	1576	1378	66.79%	17.75%	15.46%	-2.4	23
1958-11-02	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1378	1576	15.46%	17.75%	66.79%	+2.4	13
1958-11-02	KB Copenhagen	W 3-1	1556	1512	50.54%	18.42%	31.04%	+10.8	26
1958-11-02	@ B 1909	L 1-3	1512	1556	31.04%	18.42%	50.54%	-10.8	23
1958-11-02	AIA Tranbjerg	L 1-4	1451	1378	54.14%	18.35%	27.51%	-24.5	11
1958-11-02	@ KFUM	W 4-1	1378	1451	27.51%	18.35%	54.14%	+24.5	12
1958-11-02	Frem	W 3-2	1569	1572	44.24%	18.47%	37.28%	+6.9	25
1958-11-02	@ Odense	L 2-3	1572	1569	37.28%	18.47%	44.24%	-6.9	25
1958-11-02	Esbjerg	D 1-1	1427	1514	32.60%	18.40%	48.99%	+0.7	15
1958-11-02	@ Skovshoved	D 1-1	1514	1427	48.99%	18.40%	32.60%	-0.7	22
1958-11-02	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1603	1487	59.05%	18.19%	22.76%	+8.2	28
1958-11-02	@ Vejle BK	L 1-3	1487	1603	22.76%	18.19%	59.05%	-8.2	17
1958-11-16	Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1479	1573	31.66%	18.39%	49.95%	-6.0	17
1958-11-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1573	1479	49.95%	18.39%	31.66%	+6.0	25
1958-11-16	KB Copenhagen	W 4-1	1403	1501	31.12%	18.38%	50.50%	+23.0	14
1958-11-16	@ AIA Tranbjerg	L 1-4	1501	1403	50.50%	18.38%	31.12%	-23.0	23
1958-11-16	B 1909	W 6-0	1513	1566	37.13%	18.46%	44.41%	+46.6	24
1958-11-16	@ Esbjerg	L 0-6	1566	1513	44.41%	18.46%	37.13%	-46.6	26
1958-11-16	Vejle BK	W 1-0	1565	1611	38.12%	18.47%	43.42%	+8.7	27
1958-11-16	@ Frem	L 0-1	1611	1565	43.42%	18.47%	38.12%	-8.7	28
1958-11-16	Skovshoved	W 1-0	1380	1428	37.96%	18.46%	43.58%	+8.8	15
1958-11-16	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1428	1380	43.58%	18.46%	37.96%	-8.8	15
1958-11-16	KFUM	W 2-0	1575	1426	62.46%	18.03%	19.50%	+8.3	27
1958-11-16	@ Odense	L 0-2	1426	1575	19.50%	18.03%	62.46%	-8.3	11
1958-11-23	Frem	L 1-2	1579	1574	45.47%	18.47%	36.07%	-8.6	25
1958-11-23	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1574	1579	36.07%	18.47%	45.47%	+8.6	29
1958-11-23	AB Gladsaxe	W 4-2	1520	1473	50.97%	18.41%	30.62%	+9.5	28
1958-11-23	@ B 1909	L 2-4	1473	1520	30.62%	18.41%	50.97%	-9.5	17
1958-11-23	KFUM	W 6-0	1560	1418	61.74%	18.07%	20.19%	+23.8	26
1958-11-23	@ Esbjerg	L 0-6	1418	1560	20.19%	18.07%	61.74%	-23.8	11
1958-11-23	Odense	D 2-2	1478	1584	30.25%	18.36%	51.39%	+0.7	24
1958-11-23	@ KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1584	1478	51.39%	18.36%	30.25%	-0.7	28
1958-11-23	AIA Tranbjerg	W 6-1	1389	1426	39.47%	18.47%	42.06%	+31.0	17
1958-11-23	@ Koge BK	L 1-6	1426	1389	42.06%	18.47%	39.47%	-31.0	14
1958-11-23	Skovshoved	W 7-1	1602	1419	65.58%	17.84%	16.58%	+16.4	30
1958-11-23	@ Vejle BK	L 1-7	1419	1602	16.58%	17.84%	65.58%	-16.4	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1958-10-05	14.02%	@ AIA Tranbjerg	1373	2	Vejle BK	1647	0
2	1958-09-07	19.53%	AIA Tranbjerg	1383	2	@ Esbjerg	1532	1
3	1958-08-28	20.45%	KFUM	1413	3	@ Frem	1552	1
4	1958-10-19	21.59%	Esbjerg	1495	3	@ Vejle BK	1622	1
5	1958-05-04	25.82%	Odense	1468	2	@ Aarhus GF	1555	1
6	1958-11-02	27.51%	AIA Tranbjerg	1378	4	@ KFUM	1451	1
7	1958-10-05	28.23%	@ Esbjerg	1470	4	Frem	1593	1
8	1958-08-16	28.40%	Skovshoved	1485	3	@ KB Copenhagen	1550	2
9	1958-08-17	29.55%	@ B 1909	1507	2	Vejle BK	1618	0
10	1958-05-04	29.67%	KFUM	1445	3	@ B 1909	1500	0
11	1958-04-20	30.01%	Koge BK	1479	3	@ AB Gladsaxe	1531	1
12	1958-10-05	30.53%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1460	3	KB Copenhagen	1563	0
13	1958-06-05	30.58%	@ Odense	1479	4	Vejle BK	1581	2
14	1958-04-19	30.89%	KB Copenhagen	1499	3	@ Frem	1544	1
15	1958-05-04	31.09%	Esbjerg	1498	1	@ Frem	1541	0
16	1958-11-16	31.12%	@ AIA Tranbjerg	1403	4	KB Copenhagen	1501	1
17	1958-06-07	31.72%	AB Gladsaxe	1474	1	@ Skovshoved	1513	0
18	1958-06-01	33.60%	KB Copenhagen	1520	3	@ Aarhus GF	1544	0
19	1958-03-30	34.49%	KB Copenhagen	1483	3	@ Esbjerg	1500	2
20	1958-03-30	34.49%	Vejle BK	1495	2	@ Skovshoved	1512	1
21	1958-11-23	36.07%	Frem	1574	2	@ Aarhus GF	1579	1
22	1958-03-30	36.45%	Koge BK	1470	1	@ AIA Tranbjerg	1473	0
23	1958-11-16	37.13%	@ Esbjerg	1513	6	B 1909	1566	0
24	1958-03-30	37.47%	B 1909	1495	5	@ Odense	1490	4
25	1958-04-13	37.91%	KB Copenhagen	1491	3	@ Odense	1483	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1958-11-16	46.59	@ Esbjerg	6	1513	37.13%	B 1909	0	1566	44.41%	18.46%
2	1958-05-02	45.49	Vejle BK	6	1526	38.37%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1515	43.16%	18.48%
3	1958-09-28	43.94	@ Aarhus GF	7	1531	46.89%	Esbjerg	0	1514	34.65%	18.46%
4	1958-09-06	40.10	Frem	6	1532	44.52%	@ Skovshoved	0	1478	37.03%	18.46%
5	1958-06-08	32.56	@ Vejle BK	5	1567	46.10%	Frem	0	1556	35.44%	18.46%
6	1958-11-23	31.04	@ Koge BK	6	1389	39.47%	AIA Tranbjerg	1	1426	42.06%	18.47%
7	1958-05-04	27.97	KFUM	3	1445	29.67%	@ B 1909	0	1500	51.94%	18.39%
8	1958-09-28	27.95	@ KFUM	4	1414	43.59%	Koge BK	0	1422	37.94%	18.48%
9	1958-10-05	27.55	@ AB Gladsaxe	3	1460	30.53%	KB Copenhagen	0	1563	51.11%	18.36%
10	1958-06-01	26.04	KB Copenhagen	3	1520	33.60%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1544	47.95%	18.45%
11	1958-04-03	25.59	@ AIA Tranbjerg	5	1464	38.98%	KFUM	1	1504	42.55%	18.47%
12	1958-10-05	25.16	@ AIA Tranbjerg	2	1373	14.02%	Vejle BK	0	1647	68.52%	17.47%
13	1958-11-02	24.51	AIA Tranbjerg	4	1378	27.51%	@ KFUM	1	1451	54.14%	18.35%
14	1958-10-05	24.21	@ Esbjerg	4	1470	28.23%	Frem	1	1593	53.46%	18.31%
15	1958-11-23	23.76	@ Esbjerg	6	1560	61.74%	KFUM	0	1418	20.19%	18.07%
16	1958-10-19	23.40	Aarhus GF	3	1552	39.21%	@ KB Copenhagen	0	1535	42.31%	18.48%
17	1958-11-16	22.99	@ AIA Tranbjerg	4	1403	31.12%	KB Copenhagen	1	1501	50.50%	18.38%
18	1958-04-20	22.67	@ Vejle BK	3	1503	40.81%	B 1909	0	1530	40.71%	18.48%
19	1958-08-17	22.33	@ Frem	7	1530	58.42%	AIA Tranbjerg	1	1420	23.36%	18.22%
20	1958-10-05	22.20	@ Odense	3	1554	41.82%	Aarhus GF	0	1574	39.70%	18.48%
21	1958-06-15	21.77	Odense	3	1492	42.77%	@ KFUM	0	1450	38.76%	18.47%
22	1958-03-30	21.76	@ Frem	3	1523	42.80%	Aarhus GF	0	1536	38.72%	18.48%
23	1958-04-07	20.21	@ B 1909	3	1502	46.14%	Esbjerg	0	1492	35.40%	18.46%
24	1958-10-19	20.20	Skovshoved	4	1407	38.01%	@ AIA Tranbjerg	1	1398	43.51%	18.48%
25	1958-06-08	20.04	Esbjerg	6	1514	42.95%	@ Koge BK	2	1471	38.59%	18.47%