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1956-57 1st Division Season

135 games

Final

Champion

Aarhus GF

39 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1955-56

Relegated

B 1903

17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Aarhus GF

5.40 points above expected

39 points · 33.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B 1903

7.00 points below expected

17 points · 24.00 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aarhus GF Champion 27 17 5 5 39 55 31 +24 33.60 +5.40
2 AB Gladsaxe 27 16 5 6 37 68 42 +26 32.66 +4.34
3 Frem 27 13 6 8 32 61 44 +17 28.40 +3.60
4 Skovshoved 27 13 4 10 30 51 42 +9 27.37 +2.63
5 KB Copenhagen 27 9 9 9 27 40 48 -8 24.18 +2.82
6 Vejle BK 27 9 7 11 25 49 54 -5 26.39 -1.39
7 Esbjerg 27 10 5 12 25 48 53 -5 26.77 -1.77
8 B 1909 27 8 4 15 20 40 51 -11 24.98 -4.98
9 AIA Tranbjerg 27 7 4 16 18 34 62 -28 21.66 -3.66
10 B 1903 Relegated 27 5 7 15 17 39 58 -19 24.00 -7.00

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Aarhus GF 1563 39 33.60 +5.40 91.5% 16 26 31 34 36 41 50
AB Gladsaxe 1525 37 32.66 +4.34 86.6% 18 25 30 33 36 40 46
Frem 1516 32 28.40 +3.60 82.2% 13 21 25 28 31 36 44
Skovshoved 1482 30 27.37 +2.63 76.1% 10 20 24 27 30 35 43
Esbjerg 1441 25 26.77 -1.77 39.0% 12 19 24 27 30 34 43
Vejle BK 1425 25 26.39 -1.39 42.3% 8 19 23 26 29 34 44
B 1909 1417 20 24.98 -4.98 16.1% 9 18 22 25 28 32 43
KB Copenhagen 1395 27 24.18 +2.82 77.2% 10 17 21 24 27 32 41
B 1903 1364 17 24.00 -7.00 6.5% 10 17 21 24 27 31 42
AIA Tranbjerg 1361 18 21.66 -3.66 23.7% 4 15 19 22 25 29 38

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AT AG B1 B1 ESB FRE KC SKO VB
AB Gladsaxe —
3-0-0
5.64
1-1-1
4.15
1-1-1
5.38
2-1-0
5.26
1-1-1
5.47
2-0-1
4.57
0-1-2
5.87
3-0-0
4.66
3-0-0
5.05
AIA Tranbjerg
0-0-3
2.72
 —
1-0-2
2.44
2-0-1
3.65
0-0-3
4.18
3-0-0
3.24
0-1-2
2.85
1-0-2
3.96
0-1-2
2.92
0-2-1
3.59
Aarhus GF
1-1-1
4.19
2-0-1
5.95
 —
3-0-0
5.96
2-0-1
5.64
2-1-0
4.87
2-1-0
5.07
1-2-0
5.43
2-0-1
5.39
2-0-1
4.96
B 1903
1-1-1
2.97
1-0-2
4.70
0-0-3
2.41
 —
1-0-2
3.87
1-0-2
4.09
0-1-2
3.14
0-2-1
4.60
1-1-1
3.85
0-2-1
3.46
B 1909
0-1-2
3.10
3-0-0
4.16
1-0-2
2.71
2-0-1
4.48
 —
1-0-2
3.70
0-0-3
3.95
0-2-1
3.99
1-0-2
4.06
0-1-2
4.36
Esbjerg
1-1-1
2.88
0-0-3
5.11
0-1-2
3.48
2-0-1
4.26
2-0-1
4.65
 —
1-2-0
4.03
3-0-0
4.24
0-1-2
4.45
1-0-2
4.05
Frem
1-0-2
3.78
2-1-0
5.51
0-1-2
3.27
2-1-0
5.21
3-0-0
4.40
0-2-1
4.31
 —
1-1-1
4.50
2-0-1
3.99
2-0-1
4.83
KB Copenhagen
2-1-0
2.49
2-0-1
4.39
0-2-1
2.93
1-2-0
3.75
1-2-0
4.35
0-0-3
4.10
1-1-1
3.85
 —
1-0-2
4.08
1-1-1
3.43
Skovshoved
0-0-3
3.68
2-1-0
5.44
1-0-2
2.96
1-1-1
4.50
2-0-1
4.28
2-1-0
3.91
1-0-2
4.35
2-0-1
4.27
 —
2-1-0
4.80
Vejle BK
0-0-3
3.29
1-2-0
4.75
1-0-2
3.38
1-2-0
4.89
2-1-0
3.98
2-0-1
4.29
1-0-2
3.51
1-1-1
4.91
0-1-2
3.54
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +6.1
Allowed 0.85 -7.7
Differential 0.93 +4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.93%4.81%4.81%2.22%1.11%1.85%20.74%
14.81%8.89%5.93%4.81%3.33%1.48%29.26%
24.81%5.93%4.44%4.07%1.85%1.48%22.59%
32.22%4.81%4.07%1.48%0.74%0.74%14.07%
41.11%3.33%1.85%0.74%—0.37%7.41%
5+1.85%1.48%1.48%0.74%0.37%—5.93%
Total20.74%29.26%22.59%14.07%7.41%5.93%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.80 +0.00
SD 1.53 1.53 2.24
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%3.70%3.70%———14.81%
13.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%——18.52%
2—11.11%3.70%—3.70%—18.52%
3—7.41%7.41%—3.70%—18.52%
47.41%3.70%3.70%3.70%——18.52%
5+—3.70%—7.41%——11.11%
Total18.52%37.04%22.22%14.81%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.52 1.56 +0.96
SD 1.85 1.19 1.91
CV 0.73 0.76 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%29.63%
17.41%7.41%7.41%3.70%7.41%7.41%40.74%
2—3.70%—7.41%3.70%—14.81%
33.70%—3.70%———7.41%
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total22.22%18.52%18.52%14.81%14.81%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 2.30 -1.04
SD 1.29 2.00 2.56
CV 1.02 0.87 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%3.70%———14.81%
111.11%3.70%————14.81%
27.41%18.52%11.11%7.41%——44.44%
3—7.41%7.41%———14.81%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+3.70%—3.70%———7.41%
Total25.93%40.74%25.93%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 1.15 +0.89
SD 1.43 0.91 1.60
CV 0.70 0.79 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%11.11%3.70%—3.70%22.22%
1—14.81%11.11%11.11%3.70%—40.74%
2—3.70%7.41%3.70%—3.70%18.52%
33.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total7.41%25.93%33.33%22.22%3.70%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.15 -0.70
SD 1.34 1.38 2.23
CV 0.93 0.64 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%14.81%7.41%3.70%—3.70%37.04%
17.41%7.41%—3.70%7.41%—25.93%
2—7.41%—3.70%3.70%3.70%18.52%
33.70%—————3.70%
4——3.70%——3.70%7.41%
5+7.41%—————7.41%
Total25.93%29.63%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.89 -0.41
SD 1.76 1.80 2.62
CV 1.19 0.96 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—3.70%3.70%——11.11%
17.41%3.70%7.41%14.81%—3.70%37.04%
211.11%3.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%3.70%33.33%
33.70%——3.70%——7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+——7.41%———7.41%
Total25.93%11.11%25.93%25.93%3.70%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.96 -0.19
SD 1.31 1.60 2.15
CV 0.74 0.82 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—————3.70%
17.41%7.41%14.81%—3.70%—33.33%
23.70%3.70%3.70%7.41%—3.70%22.22%
33.70%11.11%3.70%7.41%——25.93%
4—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total18.52%33.33%25.93%14.81%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.26 1.63 +0.63
SD 1.46 1.28 1.96
CV 0.64 0.78 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%—7.41%3.70%—7.41%33.33%
1—11.11%—7.41%7.41%—25.93%
211.11%—7.41%———18.52%
3—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
43.70%—3.70%3.70%——11.11%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total29.63%18.52%22.22%14.81%7.41%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.78 -0.30
SD 1.50 1.67 2.45
CV 1.01 0.94 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%————11.11%
13.70%11.11%11.11%—3.70%3.70%33.33%
214.81%3.70%—7.41%——25.93%
33.70%7.41%3.70%——3.70%18.52%
4—7.41%————7.41%
5+——3.70%———3.70%
Total25.93%37.04%18.52%7.41%3.70%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.56 +0.33
SD 1.28 1.67 2.04
CV 0.68 1.07 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%3.70%7.41%3.70%7.41%—29.63%
1—14.81%3.70%3.70%——22.22%
2—3.70%3.70%—3.70%—11.11%
3—7.41%7.41%—3.70%3.70%22.22%
4—7.41%————7.41%
5+—3.70%——3.70%—7.41%
Total7.41%40.74%22.22%7.41%18.52%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 2.00 -0.19
SD 1.71 1.39 2.13
CV 0.94 0.69 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Aarhus GF 39 33.60 +5.40
2 AB Gladsaxe 37 32.66 +4.34
3 Frem 32 28.40 +3.60
4 KB Copenhagen 27 24.18 +2.82
5 Skovshoved 30 27.37 +2.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1903 17 24.00 -7.00
2 B 1909 20 24.98 -4.98
3 AIA Tranbjerg 18 21.66 -3.66
4 Esbjerg 25 26.77 -1.77
5 Vejle BK 25 26.39 -1.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AB Gladsaxe 7 Aug 18 – Sep 23 1 in 217
2 Frem 5 Jan 28 – Apr 13 1 in 93
3 KB Copenhagen 3 Nov 10 – Nov 17 1 in 42
4 Esbjerg 3 May 30 – Jun 9 1 in 41
5 Aarhus GF 5 Aug 18 – Sep 8 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 6 Jan 20 – Apr 7 1 in 1,214
2 B 1903 5 Nov 10 – Jan 14 1 in 95
3 B 1909 4 Aug 25 – Sep 9 1 in 45
4 AIA Tranbjerg 5 Nov 10 – Jan 14 1 in 26
5 Skovshoved 3 Sep 8 – Sep 14 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 11 Jan 26 – Jun 9 1 in 77
2 AB Gladsaxe 8 Aug 18 – Sep 29 1 in 21
3 AIA Tranbjerg 3 Apr 21 – May 19 1 in 17
4 B 1909 5 Jan 27 – Apr 14 1 in 14
5 Esbjerg 4 May 19 – Jun 9 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 10 Jan 14 – May 19 1 in 142
2 B 1903 10 Nov 10 – Mar 24 1 in 42
3 Frem 6 Nov 17 – Jan 26 1 in 22
4 KB Copenhagen 6 Jan 28 – May 12 1 in 14
5 B 1909 6 Aug 25 – Sep 23 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Aarhus GF43.16%25.59%12.99%7.58%4.76%2.89%1.71%0.65%0.55%0.12%
AB Gladsaxe33.24%27.24%15.77%9.09%6.25%3.82%2.26%1.41%0.67%0.25%
Frem7.57%13.31%17.53%15.23%13.13%10.63%8.70%6.61%4.55%2.74%
Skovshoved5.15%9.45%13.47%14.97%13.96%12.31%10.94%9.13%6.72%3.90%
KB Copenhagen1.28%3.08%5.24%8.03%9.48%11.85%14.07%15.66%16.03%15.28%
Vejle BK3.17%6.68%10.34%12.03%13.59%13.78%12.48%11.54%10.07%6.32%
Esbjerg3.45%7.51%11.09%13.33%14.30%13.21%12.15%10.72%8.77%5.47%
B 19091.72%3.63%6.69%9.72%11.25%13.40%13.49%14.42%13.87%11.81%
AIA Tranbjerg0.24%0.88%2.02%3.33%4.60%7.19%10.04%13.67%21.12%36.91%
B 19031.02%2.63%4.86%6.69%8.68%10.92%14.16%16.19%17.65%17.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.59%
Slight Edge
45.93%20.74%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
147 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
043.98400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.47 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
Aarhus GF, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.53 * Some Luck: 3.53 to 5.3 * Lucky: 5.3 to 7.06 * Wild Swing: 7.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.32 * Off: 2.32 to 3.09 * Way Off: 3.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.10 points
Some Luck
04.4111
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.934
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.55%
Aarhus GF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.52%
B 1903
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.46
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.27
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.15
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1330.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
AB Gladsaxe 99.75% 0.25%
AIA Tranbjerg 63.09% 36.91%
Aarhus GF 99.88% 0.12%
B 1903 82.80% 17.20%
B 1909 88.19% 11.81%
Esbjerg 94.53% 5.47%
Frem 97.26% 2.74%
KB Copenhagen 84.72% 15.28%
Skovshoved 96.10% 3.90%
Vejle BK 93.68% 6.32%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1956-08-18 B 1909 W 3-2 1502 1445 54.94% 21.63% 23.43% +3.6 2
1956-08-18 @ Aarhus GF L 2-3 1445 1502 23.43% 21.63% 54.94% -3.6 0
1956-08-18 B 1903 W 3-1 1459 1433 51.23% 21.83% 26.94% +7.4 2
1956-08-18 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1433 1459 26.94% 21.83% 51.23% -7.4 0
1956-08-18 Frem W 5-2 1462 1447 49.87% 21.88% 28.26% +9.5 2
1956-08-18 @ Esbjerg L 2-5 1447 1462 28.26% 21.88% 49.87% -9.5 0
1956-08-18 Skovshoved W 5-1 1409 1437 44.26% 22.00% 33.74% +16.3 2
1956-08-18 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-5 1437 1409 33.74% 22.00% 44.26% -16.3 0
1956-08-18 AIA Tranbjerg D 0-0 1453 1444 49.08% 21.90% 29.01% -0.7 1
1956-08-18 @ Vejle BK D 0-0 1444 1453 29.01% 21.90% 49.08% +0.7 1
1956-08-19 Vejle BK W 2-0 1505 1452 54.54% 21.66% 23.80% +7.7 4
1956-08-19 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1452 1505 23.80% 21.66% 54.54% -7.7 1
1956-08-19 Frem W 4-1 1466 1438 51.54% 21.82% 26.65% +10.4 4
1956-08-19 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-4 1438 1466 26.65% 21.82% 51.54% -10.4 0
1956-08-19 AIA Tranbjerg W 4-2 1441 1445 47.51% 21.95% 30.54% +7.4 2
1956-08-19 @ B 1909 L 2-4 1445 1441 30.54% 21.95% 47.51% -7.3 1
1956-08-19 Skovshoved L 2-5 1471 1421 54.18% 21.68% 24.14% -16.2 2
1956-08-19 @ Esbjerg W 5-2 1421 1471 24.14% 21.68% 54.18% +16.2 2
1956-08-19 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1426 1425 48.10% 21.93% 29.97% -0.6 1
1956-08-19 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1425 1426 29.97% 21.93% 48.10% +0.6 3
1956-08-25 Skovshoved W 1-0 1513 1437 57.02% 21.48% 21.50% +3.8 6
1956-08-25 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1437 1513 21.50% 21.48% 57.02% -3.8 2
1956-08-25 Vejle BK L 1-4 1448 1444 48.59% 21.92% 29.49% -17.0 2
1956-08-25 @ B 1909 W 4-1 1444 1448 29.49% 21.92% 48.59% +16.9 3
1956-08-25 AIA Tranbjerg L 0-1 1425 1438 46.36% 21.97% 31.67% -7.0 1
1956-08-25 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1438 1425 31.67% 21.97% 46.36% +7.0 3
1956-08-25 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1428 1426 48.28% 21.93% 29.80% -0.6 1
1956-08-25 @ Frem D 1-1 1426 1428 29.80% 21.93% 48.28% +0.6 4
1956-08-25 Esbjerg L 0-2 1426 1455 44.20% 22.00% 33.81% -12.8 4
1956-08-25 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1455 1426 33.81% 22.00% 44.20% +12.8 4
1956-08-26 Vejle BK W 4-0 1476 1461 49.97% 21.88% 28.16% +16.9 6
1956-08-26 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1461 1476 28.16% 21.88% 49.97% -16.9 3
1956-08-26 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1445 1517 38.13% 21.98% 39.89% -5.7 3
1956-08-26 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 2-1 1517 1445 39.89% 21.98% 38.13% +5.7 8
1956-08-26 B 1909 W 1-0 1468 1432 52.54% 21.77% 25.69% +4.4 6
1956-08-26 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1432 1468 25.69% 21.77% 52.54% -4.4 2
1956-08-26 B 1903 W 2-0 1433 1418 49.98% 21.88% 28.14% +8.9 4
1956-08-26 @ Skovshoved L 0-2 1418 1433 28.14% 21.88% 49.98% -8.9 1
1956-09-08 Vejle BK W 5-3 1493 1444 54.02% 21.69% 24.29% +5.7 8
1956-09-08 @ AB Gladsaxe L 3-5 1444 1493 24.29% 21.69% 54.02% -5.8 3
1956-09-08 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1439 1413 51.25% 21.83% 26.93% -12.6 3
1956-09-08 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-1 1413 1439 26.93% 21.83% 51.25% +12.6 6
1956-09-08 Frem L 0-1 1427 1427 48.06% 21.93% 30.01% -7.3 2
1956-09-08 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1427 1427 30.01% 21.93% 48.06% +7.3 3
1956-09-08 Aarhus GF L 0-2 1472 1523 41.23% 22.00% 36.77% -12.0 6
1956-09-08 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1523 1472 36.77% 22.00% 41.23% +12.0 10
1956-09-08 Skovshoved W 3-2 1409 1442 43.61% 22.00% 34.39% +5.0 3
1956-09-08 @ B 1903 L 2-3 1442 1409 34.39% 22.00% 43.61% -5.0 4
1956-09-08 Skovshoved W 4-1 1434 1437 47.63% 21.94% 30.42% +11.6 5
1956-09-08 @ Frem L 1-4 1437 1434 30.42% 21.94% 47.63% -11.6 4
1956-09-09 AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1535 1499 52.45% 21.77% 25.77% -7.0 10
1956-09-09 @ Aarhus GF W 3-2 1499 1535 25.77% 21.77% 52.45% +7.0 10
1956-09-09 B 1909 W 6-0 1414 1420 47.27% 21.95% 30.78% +26.5 5
1956-09-09 @ B 1903 L 0-6 1420 1414 30.78% 21.95% 47.27% -26.6 2
1956-09-09 Esbjerg L 0-3 1426 1460 43.48% 22.00% 34.52% -18.3 6
1956-09-09 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-0 1460 1426 34.52% 22.00% 43.48% +18.3 8
1956-09-09 AIA Tranbjerg D 1-1 1438 1427 49.55% 21.89% 28.56% -0.7 4
1956-09-09 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1427 1438 28.56% 21.89% 49.55% +0.7 4
1956-09-14 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1426 1506 36.97% 21.96% 41.07% -5.5 4
1956-09-14 @ Skovshoved W 2-1 1506 1426 41.07% 21.96% 36.97% +5.5 12
1956-09-15 B 1903 W 3-1 1528 1441 58.17% 21.39% 20.45% +5.9 12
1956-09-15 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1441 1528 20.45% 21.39% 58.17% -5.9 5
1956-09-15 AIA Tranbjerg W 7-1 1446 1427 50.38% 21.86% 27.76% +20.1 7
1956-09-15 @ Frem L 1-7 1427 1446 27.76% 21.86% 50.38% -20.1 4
1956-09-15 B 1909 D 1-1 1408 1393 49.86% 21.88% 28.26% -0.7 7
1956-09-15 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1393 1408 28.26% 21.88% 49.86% +0.7 3
1956-09-15 Esbjerg W 6-1 1438 1478 42.57% 22.00% 35.43% +20.7 6
1956-09-15 @ Vejle BK L 1-6 1478 1438 35.43% 22.00% 42.57% -20.7 8
1956-09-22 Skovshoved L 1-4 1407 1420 46.32% 21.97% 31.71% -16.3 7
1956-09-22 @ KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1420 1407 31.71% 21.97% 46.32% +16.3 6
1956-09-23 B 1909 W 4-2 1512 1394 61.19% 21.07% 17.74% +4.6 14
1956-09-23 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-4 1394 1512 17.74% 21.07% 61.19% -4.6 3
1956-09-23 B 1903 W 2-1 1407 1435 44.37% 21.99% 33.64% +5.1 6
1956-09-23 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 1-2 1435 1407 33.64% 21.99% 44.37% -5.1 5
1956-09-23 Vejle BK W 1-0 1458 1458 47.93% 21.94% 30.13% +5.0 10
1956-09-23 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1458 1458 30.13% 21.94% 47.93% -5.0 6
1956-09-23 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1466 1533 38.79% 21.98% 39.23% -5.7 7
1956-09-23 @ Frem W 2-1 1533 1466 39.23% 21.98% 38.79% +5.7 14
1956-09-28 KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1430 1391 52.83% 21.75% 25.42% -0.7 6
1956-09-28 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1391 1430 25.42% 21.75% 52.83% +0.7 8
1956-09-29 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1516 1539 44.99% 21.99% 33.02% -0.3 15
1956-09-29 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1539 1516 33.02% 21.99% 44.99% +0.3 15
1956-09-29 B 1909 L 0-6 1412 1389 50.90% 21.84% 27.26% -40.0 6
1956-09-29 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 6-0 1389 1412 27.26% 21.84% 50.90% +40.0 5
1956-09-29 Skovshoved D 0-0 1463 1436 51.33% 21.82% 26.84% -0.9 11
1956-09-29 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1436 1463 26.84% 21.82% 51.33% +0.9 7
1956-09-29 Vejle BK W 4-2 1460 1454 48.88% 21.91% 29.20% +7.1 9
1956-09-29 @ Frem L 2-4 1454 1460 29.20% 21.91% 48.88% -7.1 6
1956-09-30 B 1903 L 1-2 1516 1429 58.16% 21.39% 20.45% -8.1 15
1956-09-30 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1429 1516 20.45% 21.39% 58.16% +8.1 8
1956-09-30 Esbjerg W 3-0 1372 1462 35.69% 21.93% 42.38% +17.9 8
1956-09-30 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 0-3 1462 1372 42.38% 21.93% 35.69% -17.9 11
1956-09-30 Frem L 1-3 1430 1467 42.97% 22.00% 35.02% -10.8 5
1956-09-30 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1467 1430 35.02% 22.00% 42.97% +10.8 11
1956-09-30 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1437 1539 33.99% 21.88% 44.13% +12.7 9
1956-09-30 @ Skovshoved L 0-2 1539 1437 44.13% 21.88% 33.99% -12.7 15
1956-09-30 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1446 1391 54.69% 21.65% 23.66% +6.6 8
1956-09-30 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1391 1446 23.66% 21.65% 54.69% -6.7 8
1956-11-10 AB Gladsaxe L 1-6 1390 1508 31.96% 21.81% 46.23% -19.0 8
1956-11-10 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 6-1 1508 1390 46.23% 21.81% 31.96% +19.0 17
1956-11-10 Skovshoved W 2-1 1419 1450 43.86% 22.00% 34.14% +5.2 7
1956-11-10 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1450 1419 34.14% 22.00% 43.86% -5.2 9
1956-11-10 Esbjerg L 0-2 1437 1444 47.13% 21.95% 30.91% -13.5 8
1956-11-10 @ B 1903 W 2-0 1444 1437 30.91% 21.95% 47.13% +13.5 13
1956-11-10 Frem W 3-2 1385 1478 35.19% 21.92% 42.89% +5.9 10
1956-11-10 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1478 1385 42.89% 21.92% 35.19% -5.9 11
1956-11-10 Aarhus GF W 3-2 1453 1527 37.91% 21.97% 40.12% +5.6 10
1956-11-10 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1527 1453 40.12% 21.97% 37.91% -5.6 15
1956-11-11 Skovshoved L 2-3 1371 1445 37.89% 21.97% 40.13% -5.3 8
1956-11-11 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-2 1445 1371 40.13% 21.97% 37.89% +5.4 11
1956-11-11 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1457 1521 39.33% 21.99% 38.68% -5.8 13
1956-11-11 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1521 1457 38.68% 21.99% 39.33% +5.8 17
1956-11-11 Frem L 2-3 1424 1472 41.47% 22.00% 36.53% -5.7 8
1956-11-11 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1472 1424 36.53% 22.00% 41.47% +5.8 13
1956-11-11 AB Gladsaxe W 4-2 1391 1527 29.64% 21.70% 48.67% +10.7 12
1956-11-11 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1527 1391 48.67% 21.70% 29.64% -10.7 17
1956-11-11 B 1909 W 5-4 1459 1424 52.35% 21.78% 25.87% +3.8 12
1956-11-11 @ Vejle BK L 4-5 1424 1459 25.87% 21.78% 52.35% -3.8 7
1956-11-17 Frem W 2-1 1527 1478 54.02% 21.69% 24.29% +3.9 19
1956-11-17 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1478 1527 24.29% 21.69% 54.02% -3.9 13
1956-11-17 Esbjerg D 1-1 1516 1452 55.75% 21.58% 22.67% -1.1 18
1956-11-17 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1452 1516 22.67% 21.58% 55.75% +1.1 14
1956-11-17 B 1903 W 3-0 1420 1418 48.32% 21.93% 29.75% +13.5 9
1956-11-17 @ B 1909 L 0-3 1418 1420 29.75% 21.93% 48.32% -13.5 8
1956-11-17 AIA Tranbjerg W 4-1 1450 1366 57.91% 21.41% 20.68% +8.4 13
1956-11-17 @ Skovshoved L 1-4 1366 1450 20.68% 21.41% 57.91% -8.4 8
1956-11-17 KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1462 1401 55.37% 21.60% 23.02% -29.5 12
1956-11-17 @ Vejle BK W 4-0 1401 1462 23.02% 21.60% 55.37% +29.5 14
1956-11-25 KB Copenhagen W 6-0 1531 1431 59.48% 21.26% 19.26% +17.8 21
1956-11-25 @ Aarhus GF L 0-6 1431 1531 19.26% 21.26% 59.48% -17.8 14
1956-11-25 AIA Tranbjerg W 4-0 1515 1357 64.76% 20.58% 14.66% +9.5 20
1956-11-25 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1357 1515 14.66% 20.58% 64.76% -9.5 8
1956-11-25 Skovshoved L 0-1 1434 1459 44.73% 21.99% 33.28% -6.8 9
1956-11-25 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1459 1434 33.28% 21.99% 44.73% +6.8 15
1956-11-25 Esbjerg L 1-2 1404 1453 41.49% 22.00% 36.50% -6.1 8
1956-11-25 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1453 1404 36.50% 22.00% 41.49% +6.0 16
1956-11-25 Frem W 3-2 1433 1474 42.51% 22.00% 35.48% +5.1 14
1956-11-25 @ Vejle BK L 2-3 1474 1433 35.48% 22.00% 42.51% -5.1 13
1957-01-06 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1469 1524 40.50% 22.00% 37.50% -5.9 13
1957-01-06 @ Frem W 2-1 1524 1469 37.50% 22.00% 40.50% +5.9 22
1957-01-13 AB Gladsaxe L 3-7 1465 1530 39.16% 21.99% 38.85% -14.2 15
1957-01-13 @ Skovshoved W 7-3 1530 1465 38.85% 21.99% 39.16% +14.2 24
1957-01-14 B 1909 W 4-1 1549 1427 61.60% 21.02% 17.37% +7.1 23
1957-01-14 @ Aarhus GF L 1-4 1427 1549 17.37% 21.02% 61.60% -7.1 9
1957-01-14 Esbjerg D 3-3 1463 1459 48.57% 21.92% 29.51% -0.4 14
1957-01-14 @ Frem D 3-3 1459 1463 29.51% 21.92% 48.57% +0.4 17
1957-01-14 AIA Tranbjerg W 2-0 1413 1348 55.85% 21.57% 22.58% +7.4 16
1957-01-14 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1348 1413 22.58% 21.57% 55.85% -7.4 8
1957-01-14 B 1903 W 4-1 1438 1398 52.93% 21.75% 25.32% +10.0 16
1957-01-14 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1398 1438 25.32% 21.75% 52.93% -10.0 8
1957-01-20 Esbjerg W 3-2 1340 1459 31.82% 21.80% 46.38% +6.3 10
1957-01-20 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 2-3 1459 1340 46.38% 21.80% 31.82% -6.3 17
1957-01-20 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1420 1544 31.03% 21.77% 47.20% -5.1 9
1957-01-20 @ B 1909 W 1-0 1544 1420 47.20% 21.77% 31.03% +5.1 26
1957-01-20 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1421 1556 29.73% 21.70% 48.57% +0.5 17
1957-01-20 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1556 1421 48.57% 21.70% 29.73% -0.5 24
1957-01-20 Frem W 2-1 1451 1463 46.54% 21.97% 31.49% +4.9 17
1957-01-20 @ Skovshoved L 1-2 1463 1451 31.49% 21.97% 46.54% -4.9 14
1957-01-20 B 1903 D 1-1 1448 1388 55.22% 21.61% 23.16% -1.1 17
1957-01-20 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1388 1448 23.16% 21.61% 55.22% +1.1 9
1957-01-26 B 1903 D 3-3 1458 1389 56.18% 21.55% 22.27% -0.7 15
1957-01-26 @ Frem D 3-3 1389 1458 22.27% 21.55% 56.18% +0.7 10
1957-01-27 AIA Tranbjerg W 1-0 1555 1347 68.72% 19.82% 11.46% +2.1 26
1957-01-27 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1347 1555 11.46% 19.82% 68.72% -2.1 10
1957-01-27 KB Copenhagen L 3-4 1550 1421 62.22% 20.95% 16.83% -8.0 26
1957-01-27 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-3 1421 1550 16.83% 20.95% 62.22% +8.0 19
1957-01-27 B 1909 L 1-2 1453 1415 52.77% 21.76% 25.47% -7.5 17
1957-01-27 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1415 1453 25.47% 21.76% 52.77% +7.5 11
1957-01-27 Vejle BK W 3-1 1456 1447 49.21% 21.90% 28.89% +7.9 19
1957-01-27 @ Skovshoved L 1-3 1447 1456 28.89% 21.90% 49.21% -7.9 17
1957-01-28 Frem L 1-4 1345 1457 32.65% 21.83% 45.52% -12.3 10
1957-01-28 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 4-1 1457 1345 45.52% 21.83% 32.65% +12.2 17
1957-01-28 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1422 1429 47.11% 21.95% 30.94% -0.6 12
1957-01-28 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1429 1422 30.94% 21.95% 47.11% +0.6 20
1957-01-28 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1445 1542 34.81% 21.91% 43.29% -9.1 17
1957-01-28 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1542 1445 43.29% 21.91% 34.81% +9.1 28
1957-01-28 Aarhus GF L 1-3 1390 1557 25.95% 21.45% 52.60% -7.1 10
1957-01-28 @ B 1903 W 3-1 1557 1390 52.60% 21.45% 25.95% +7.1 28
1957-01-28 Vejle BK W 3-0 1464 1439 51.17% 21.83% 27.00% +12.5 21
1957-01-28 @ Skovshoved L 0-3 1439 1464 27.00% 21.83% 51.17% -12.5 17
1957-03-16 AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1469 1551 36.83% 21.95% 41.22% +10.4 19
1957-03-16 @ Frem L 1-3 1551 1469 41.22% 21.95% 36.83% -10.4 28
1957-03-17 B 1903 W 5-2 1565 1383 66.71% 20.23% 13.06% +4.7 30
1957-03-17 @ Aarhus GF L 2-5 1383 1565 13.06% 20.23% 66.71% -4.7 10
1957-03-17 AIA Tranbjerg L 2-4 1436 1332 59.87% 21.22% 18.91% -13.0 17
1957-03-17 @ Esbjerg W 4-2 1332 1436 18.91% 21.22% 59.87% +13.0 12
1957-03-24 AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1345 1540 23.01% 21.19% 55.80% -3.5 12
1957-03-24 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 3-2 1540 1345 55.80% 21.19% 23.01% +3.5 30
1957-03-24 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1421 1569 28.19% 21.61% 50.20% +7.5 14
1957-03-24 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1569 1421 50.20% 21.61% 28.19% -7.5 30
1957-03-24 Skovshoved D 1-1 1378 1476 34.52% 21.90% 43.58% +0.3 11
1957-03-24 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1476 1378 43.58% 21.90% 34.52% -0.3 22
1957-03-24 Frem L 1-3 1430 1480 41.27% 22.00% 36.73% -10.5 20
1957-03-24 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1480 1430 36.73% 22.00% 41.27% +10.5 21
1957-03-24 Esbjerg W 3-1 1427 1423 48.44% 21.92% 29.64% +8.0 19
1957-03-24 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1423 1427 29.64% 21.92% 48.44% -8.0 17
1957-04-06 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1476 1419 54.92% 21.63% 23.45% +7.6 24
1957-04-06 @ Skovshoved L 0-2 1419 1476 23.45% 21.63% 54.92% -7.6 20
1957-04-07 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1544 1562 45.65% 21.98% 32.37% -7.0 30
1957-04-07 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1562 1544 32.37% 21.98% 45.65% +7.0 32
1957-04-07 B 1909 L 0-1 1342 1429 36.04% 21.94% 42.02% -5.8 12
1957-04-07 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 1-0 1429 1342 42.02% 21.94% 36.04% +5.8 16
1957-04-07 B 1903 L 1-3 1415 1379 52.59% 21.77% 25.65% -12.9 17
1957-04-07 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1379 1415 25.65% 21.77% 52.59% +12.9 13
1957-04-07 Vejle BK W 2-0 1490 1435 54.77% 21.64% 23.59% +7.7 23
1957-04-07 @ Frem L 0-2 1435 1490 23.59% 21.64% 54.77% -7.6 19
1957-04-13 Frem L 0-1 1484 1498 46.19% 21.97% 31.84% -7.0 24
1957-04-13 @ Skovshoved W 1-0 1498 1484 31.84% 21.97% 46.19% +7.0 25
1957-04-14 Vejle BK D 1-1 1435 1427 49.03% 21.91% 29.07% -0.7 17
1957-04-14 @ B 1909 D 1-1 1427 1435 29.07% 21.91% 49.03% +0.7 20
1957-04-14 AIA Tranbjerg W 3-0 1391 1336 54.73% 21.65% 23.63% +11.1 15
1957-04-14 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1336 1391 23.63% 21.65% 54.73% -11.1 12
1957-04-14 Aarhus GF D 0-0 1412 1569 27.11% 21.54% 51.35% +0.9 21
1957-04-14 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1569 1412 51.35% 21.54% 27.11% -0.9 33
1957-04-18 Vejle BK D 0-0 1412 1428 46.06% 21.97% 31.97% -0.5 22
1957-04-18 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1428 1412 31.97% 21.97% 46.06% +0.5 21
1957-04-18 B 1909 W 2-0 1477 1434 53.29% 21.73% 24.98% +8.0 26
1957-04-18 @ Skovshoved L 0-2 1434 1477 24.98% 21.73% 53.29% -8.0 17
1957-04-21 AIA Tranbjerg D 0-0 1505 1325 66.56% 20.26% 13.18% -2.1 26
1957-04-21 @ Frem D 0-0 1325 1505 13.18% 20.26% 66.56% +2.2 13
1957-04-21 Skovshoved D 1-1 1428 1485 40.33% 22.00% 37.68% -0.1 22
1957-04-21 @ Vejle BK D 1-1 1485 1428 37.68% 22.00% 40.33% +0.1 27
1957-04-22 Esbjerg D 2-2 1568 1402 65.41% 20.47% 14.12% -1.4 34
1957-04-22 @ Aarhus GF D 2-2 1402 1568 14.12% 20.47% 65.41% +1.4 18
1957-04-22 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1403 1537 29.85% 21.71% 48.44% +0.6 16
1957-04-22 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1537 1403 48.44% 21.71% 29.85% -0.6 31
1957-05-12 KB Copenhagen W 5-0 1327 1412 36.35% 21.94% 41.71% +28.4 15
1957-05-12 @ AIA Tranbjerg L 0-5 1412 1327 41.71% 21.94% 36.35% -28.4 22
1957-05-12 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1426 1536 32.92% 21.84% 45.23% +0.5 18
1957-05-12 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1536 1426 45.23% 21.84% 32.92% -0.5 32
1957-05-12 B 1903 W 2-1 1503 1403 59.44% 21.26% 19.29% +3.2 28
1957-05-12 @ Frem L 1-2 1403 1503 19.29% 21.26% 59.44% -3.2 16
1957-05-12 Esbjerg W 3-1 1485 1404 57.55% 21.44% 21.01% +6.0 29
1957-05-12 @ Skovshoved L 1-3 1404 1485 21.01% 21.44% 57.55% -6.0 18
1957-05-12 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1428 1566 29.33% 21.68% 48.99% -4.6 22
1957-05-12 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1566 1428 48.99% 21.68% 29.33% +4.6 36
1957-05-18 Skovshoved W 2-1 1536 1491 53.54% 21.72% 24.74% +4.0 34
1957-05-18 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1491 1536 24.74% 21.72% 53.54% -4.0 29
1957-05-19 AIA Tranbjerg L 0-1 1571 1356 69.21% 19.70% 11.08% -10.2 36
1957-05-19 @ Aarhus GF W 1-0 1356 1571 11.08% 19.70% 69.21% +10.2 17
1957-05-19 Frem D 2-2 1398 1506 33.20% 21.85% 44.94% +0.3 19
1957-05-19 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1506 1398 44.94% 21.85% 33.20% -0.3 29
1957-05-19 Vejle BK D 2-2 1400 1423 44.93% 21.99% 33.08% -0.3 17
1957-05-19 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1423 1400 33.08% 21.99% 44.93% +0.3 23
1957-05-19 B 1909 W 2-0 1384 1426 42.27% 22.00% 35.73% +10.8 24
1957-05-19 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1426 1384 35.73% 22.00% 42.27% -10.8 18
1957-05-30 Skovshoved W 3-2 1561 1487 56.80% 21.50% 21.70% +3.4 38
1957-05-30 @ Aarhus GF L 2-3 1487 1561 21.70% 21.50% 56.80% -3.4 29
1957-05-30 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1540 1394 63.72% 20.74% 15.54% -1.9 35
1957-05-30 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1394 1540 15.54% 20.74% 63.72% +1.9 25
1957-05-30 Esbjerg L 2-5 1416 1398 50.25% 21.87% 27.88% -15.1 18
1957-05-30 @ B 1909 W 5-2 1398 1416 27.88% 21.87% 50.25% +15.1 21
1957-06-01 B 1903 W 2-0 1396 1400 47.59% 21.94% 30.47% +9.5 27
1957-06-01 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1400 1396 30.47% 21.94% 47.59% -9.5 17
1957-06-02 Esbjerg L 0-2 1538 1413 61.85% 20.99% 17.15% -17.3 35
1957-06-02 @ AB Gladsaxe W 2-0 1413 1538 17.15% 20.99% 61.85% +17.3 23
1957-06-02 Vejle BK L 1-2 1366 1424 40.16% 22.00% 37.84% -5.9 17
1957-06-02 @ AIA Tranbjerg W 2-1 1424 1366 37.84% 22.00% 40.16% +5.9 25
1957-06-02 B 1909 W 3-0 1506 1401 59.99% 21.21% 18.80% +9.1 31
1957-06-02 @ Frem L 0-3 1401 1506 18.80% 21.21% 59.99% -9.1 18
1957-06-09 Frem D 1-1 1564 1515 54.08% 21.69% 24.24% -1.0 39
1957-06-09 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1515 1564 24.24% 21.69% 54.08% +1.0 32
1957-06-09 B 1903 W 6-0 1391 1390 48.19% 21.93% 29.88% +25.9 20
1957-06-09 @ B 1909 L 0-6 1390 1391 29.88% 21.93% 48.19% -25.9 17
1957-06-09 KB Copenhagen W 4-1 1431 1406 51.15% 21.83% 27.02% +10.5 25
1957-06-09 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1406 1431 27.02% 21.83% 51.15% -10.5 27
1957-06-09 AIA Tranbjerg D 1-1 1483 1360 61.76% 21.00% 17.24% -1.6 30
1957-06-09 @ Skovshoved D 1-1 1360 1483 17.24% 21.00% 61.76% +1.6 18
1957-06-09 AB Gladsaxe L 3-4 1430 1520 35.51% 21.92% 42.57% -5.0 25
1957-06-09 @ Vejle BK W 4-3 1520 1430 42.57% 21.92% 35.51% +5.0 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1957-05-19 11.08% AIA Tranbjerg 1356 1 @ Aarhus GF 1571 0
2 1957-01-27 16.83% KB Copenhagen 1421 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1550 3
3 1957-06-02 17.15% Esbjerg 1413 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1538 0
4 1957-03-17 18.91% AIA Tranbjerg 1332 4 @ Esbjerg 1436 2
5 1956-09-30 20.45% B 1903 1429 2 @ AB Gladsaxe 1516 1
6 1956-11-17 23.02% KB Copenhagen 1401 4 @ Vejle BK 1462 0
7 1956-08-19 24.14% Skovshoved 1421 5 @ Esbjerg 1471 2
8 1957-01-27 25.47% B 1909 1415 2 @ Esbjerg 1453 1
9 1957-04-07 25.65% B 1903 1379 3 @ Esbjerg 1415 1
10 1956-09-09 25.77% AB Gladsaxe 1499 3 @ Aarhus GF 1535 2
11 1956-09-08 26.93% KB Copenhagen 1413 3 @ AIA Tranbjerg 1439 1
12 1956-09-29 27.26% B 1909 1389 6 @ AIA Tranbjerg 1412 0
13 1957-05-30 27.88% Esbjerg 1398 5 @ B 1909 1416 2
14 1957-03-24 28.19% @ B 1909 1421 1 Aarhus GF 1569 0
15 1956-08-25 29.49% Vejle BK 1444 4 @ B 1909 1448 1
16 1956-11-11 29.64% @ KB Copenhagen 1391 4 AB Gladsaxe 1527 2
17 1956-09-08 30.01% Frem 1427 1 @ B 1909 1427 0
18 1956-11-10 30.91% Esbjerg 1444 2 @ B 1903 1437 0
19 1956-08-25 31.67% AIA Tranbjerg 1438 1 @ B 1903 1425 0
20 1956-09-22 31.71% Skovshoved 1420 4 @ KB Copenhagen 1407 1
21 1957-01-20 31.82% @ AIA Tranbjerg 1340 3 Esbjerg 1459 2
22 1957-04-13 31.84% Frem 1498 1 @ Skovshoved 1484 0
23 1957-04-07 32.37% Aarhus GF 1562 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1544 0
24 1956-11-25 33.28% Skovshoved 1459 1 @ B 1909 1434 0
25 1956-08-25 33.81% Esbjerg 1455 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1426 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1956-09-29 40.05 B 1909 6 1389 27.26% @ AIA Tranbjerg 0 1412 50.90% 21.84%
2 1956-11-17 29.55 KB Copenhagen 4 1401 23.02% @ Vejle BK 0 1462 55.37% 21.60%
3 1957-05-12 28.44 @ AIA Tranbjerg 5 1327 36.35% KB Copenhagen 0 1412 41.71% 21.94%
4 1956-09-09 26.55 @ B 1903 6 1414 47.27% B 1909 0 1420 30.78% 21.95%
5 1957-06-09 25.91 @ B 1909 6 1391 48.19% B 1903 0 1390 29.88% 21.93%
6 1956-09-15 20.72 @ Vejle BK 6 1438 42.57% Esbjerg 1 1478 35.43% 22.00%
7 1956-09-15 20.13 @ Frem 7 1446 50.38% AIA Tranbjerg 1 1427 27.76% 21.86%
8 1956-11-10 19.05 AB Gladsaxe 6 1508 46.23% @ AIA Tranbjerg 1 1390 31.96% 21.81%
9 1956-09-09 18.28 Esbjerg 3 1460 34.52% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1426 43.48% 22.00%
10 1956-09-30 17.89 @ AIA Tranbjerg 3 1372 35.69% Esbjerg 0 1462 42.38% 21.93%
11 1956-11-25 17.81 @ Aarhus GF 6 1531 59.48% KB Copenhagen 0 1431 19.26% 21.26%
12 1957-06-02 17.29 Esbjerg 2 1413 17.15% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1538 61.85% 20.99%
13 1956-08-25 16.95 Vejle BK 4 1444 29.49% @ B 1909 1 1448 48.59% 21.92%
14 1956-08-26 16.86 @ AB Gladsaxe 4 1476 49.97% Vejle BK 0 1461 28.16% 21.88%
15 1956-08-18 16.28 @ KB Copenhagen 5 1409 44.26% Skovshoved 1 1437 33.74% 22.00%
16 1956-09-22 16.27 Skovshoved 4 1420 31.71% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1407 46.32% 21.97%
17 1956-08-19 16.19 Skovshoved 5 1421 24.14% @ Esbjerg 2 1471 54.18% 21.68%
18 1957-05-30 15.12 Esbjerg 5 1398 27.88% @ B 1909 2 1416 50.25% 21.87%
19 1957-01-13 14.17 AB Gladsaxe 7 1530 38.85% @ Skovshoved 3 1465 39.16% 21.99%
20 1956-11-17 13.50 @ B 1909 3 1420 48.32% B 1903 0 1418 29.75% 21.93%
21 1956-11-10 13.48 Esbjerg 2 1444 30.91% @ B 1903 0 1437 47.13% 21.95%
22 1957-03-17 12.99 AIA Tranbjerg 4 1332 18.91% @ Esbjerg 2 1436 59.87% 21.22%
23 1957-04-07 12.86 B 1903 3 1379 25.65% @ Esbjerg 1 1415 52.59% 21.77%
24 1956-08-25 12.77 Esbjerg 2 1455 33.81% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1426 44.20% 22.00%
25 1956-09-30 12.74 @ Skovshoved 2 1437 33.99% Aarhus GF 0 1539 44.13% 21.88%