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1950-51 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

AB Gladsaxe

28 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1946-47

Relegated

KB Copenhagen

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

AB Gladsaxe

4.94 points above expected

28 points · 23.06 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KB Copenhagen

7.50 points below expected

14 points · 21.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 AB Gladsaxe Champion 18 11 6 1 28 34 15 +19 23.06 +4.94
2 Odense 18 8 3 7 19 19 26 -7 15.76 +3.24
3 Aarhus GF 18 5 8 5 18 31 28 +3 19.95 -1.95
4 Koge BK 18 7 4 7 18 30 31 -1 18.46 -0.46
5 B 1903 18 7 3 8 17 25 24 +1 17.13 -0.13
6 Frem 18 5 7 6 17 24 24 0 17.56 -0.56
7 B.93 18 7 3 8 17 27 28 -1 16.17 +0.83
8 Esbjerg 18 7 2 9 16 32 37 -5 15.52 +0.48
9 B 1909 18 5 6 7 16 23 31 -8 14.88 +1.12
10 KB Copenhagen Relegated 18 4 6 8 14 24 25 -1 21.50 -7.50

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
AB Gladsaxe 1681 28 23.06 +4.94 96.0% 11 18 21 23 25 28 34
KB Copenhagen 1600 14 21.50 -7.50 1.8% 9 16 19 22 24 27 33
Aarhus GF 1568 18 19.95 -1.95 33.6% 8 15 18 20 22 25 32
Koge BK 1535 18 18.46 -0.46 50.3% 6 13 16 18 21 24 30
Odense 1517 19 15.76 +3.24 87.0% 5 10 14 16 18 21 27
Frem 1516 17 17.56 -0.56 49.0% 5 12 15 18 20 23 29
B 1903 1509 17 17.13 -0.13 54.5% 4 12 15 17 19 23 30
B.93 1495 17 16.17 +0.83 65.7% 4 11 14 16 18 22 27
Esbjerg 1475 16 15.52 +0.48 61.9% 4 10 13 15 18 21 30
B 1909 1456 16 14.88 +1.12 69.8% 4 10 13 15 17 20 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B1 B.9 ESB FRE KC KB ODE
AB Gladsaxe —
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
3.74
1-1-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.63
2-0-0
2.87
1-1-0
3.32
0-2-0
3.80
Aarhus GF
1-1-0
2.24
 —
0-0-2
3.17
1-1-0
3.50
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
3.37
0-2-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.55
0-2-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.31
B 1903
0-0-2
1.74
2-0-0
2.29
 —
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.12
1-0-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.99
B 1909
0-1-1
1.46
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
2.41
 —
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.42
1-1-0
1.77
1-1-0
2.21
0-1-1
2.68
B.93
0-0-2
1.72
0-1-1
2.17
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
3.01
 —
2-0-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
1.86
1-0-1
2.31
2-0-0
2.76
Esbjerg
0-0-2
1.66
2-0-0
2.09
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.64
 —
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
1.85
1-0-1
2.20
0-0-2
2.73
Frem
0-1-1
1.84
0-2-0
2.42
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.09
 —
1-1-0
2.13
0-0-2
2.80
1-0-1
2.97
KB Copenhagen
0-0-2
2.59
0-1-1
2.90
0-1-1
3.35
0-1-1
3.73
1-1-0
3.61
0-1-1
3.62
0-1-1
3.33
 —
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.67
Koge BK
0-1-1
2.16
0-2-0
2.40
1-0-1
3.01
0-1-1
3.24
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
3.27
2-0-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.34
 —
2-0-0
2.98
Odense
0-2-0
1.69
1-0-1
2.15
2-0-0
2.48
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.69
2-0-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
1.81
0-0-2
2.48
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.23 +3.8
Allowed 0.48 -4.5
Differential 0.69 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.89%6.11%5.00%3.33%1.67%1.67%26.67%
16.11%10.00%5.00%6.11%3.33%—30.56%
25.00%5.00%5.56%3.33%0.56%—19.44%
33.33%6.11%3.33%2.22%0.56%—15.56%
41.67%3.33%0.56%0.56%——6.11%
5+1.67%—————1.67%
Total26.67%30.56%19.44%15.56%6.11%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.99
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
2—27.78%5.56%———33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%55.56%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.83 +1.06
SD 1.49 0.79 1.47
CV 0.79 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—16.67%———22.22%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
3———11.11%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%33.33%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.56 +0.17
SD 1.56 1.10 1.95
CV 0.91 0.70 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%—————11.11%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.33 +0.06
SD 1.20 1.14 2.01
CV 0.86 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——5.56%—5.56%27.78%
111.11%5.56%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
2——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.72 -0.44
SD 1.18 1.56 2.01
CV 0.92 0.91 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—11.11%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
211.11%—————11.11%
3——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.56 -0.06
SD 1.38 1.15 1.86
CV 0.92 0.74 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%—5.56%11.11%—27.78%
25.56%——16.67%——22.22%
35.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.06 -0.28
SD 1.22 1.43 2.22
CV 0.68 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
1—22.22%—11.11%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%5.56%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.19 1.19 1.61
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
1—11.11%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%22.22%22.22%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.39 -0.06
SD 1.41 1.29 1.86
CV 1.06 0.93 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
2——16.67%5.56%——22.22%
311.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%38.89%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.72 -0.06
SD 1.33 1.27 2.31
CV 0.80 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
116.67%———16.67%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%16.67%5.56%—22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.44 -0.39
SD 1.16 1.85 2.45
CV 1.10 1.28 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AB Gladsaxe 28 23.06 +4.94
2 Odense 19 15.76 +3.24
3 B 1909 16 14.88 +1.12
4 B.93 17 16.17 +0.83
5 Esbjerg 16 15.52 +0.48

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KB Copenhagen 14 21.50 -7.50
2 Aarhus GF 18 19.95 -1.95
3 Frem 17 17.56 -0.56
4 Koge BK 18 18.46 -0.46
5 B 1903 17 17.13 -0.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AB Gladsaxe 5 Nov 12 – Apr 11 1 in 72
2 Odense 3 Apr 22 – May 3 1 in 27
3 B 1909 2 Sep 17 – Oct 1 1 in 26
4 Frem 3 Aug 20 – Sep 16 1 in 14
5 Aarhus GF 2 Oct 8 – Oct 29 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KB Copenhagen 2 Aug 31 – Sep 17 1 in 67
2 Odense 3 Aug 20 – Oct 1 1 in 14
3 B.93 3 Mar 22 – Apr 1 1 in 12
4 Frem 2 Dec 10 – Mar 26 1 in 10
5 AB Gladsaxe 1 Oct 29 – Oct 29 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 6 Apr 15 – May 6 1 in 73
2 AB Gladsaxe 12 Nov 12 – May 8 1 in 30
3 Odense 5 Apr 22 – May 20 1 in 27
4 Aarhus GF 7 Oct 8 – Mar 26 1 in 25
5 B 1903 3 Mar 25 – Apr 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 10 Nov 12 – May 3 1 in 178
2 Aarhus GF 6 Apr 15 – May 6 1 in 59
3 KB Copenhagen 5 Mar 25 – Apr 22 1 in 33
4 AB Gladsaxe 3 May 3 – May 8 1 in 19
5 B 1903 4 Apr 7 – Apr 26 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
AB Gladsaxe50.13%22.37%11.75%7.15%3.98%2.29%1.30%0.64%0.23%0.16%
Odense0.88%2.66%4.98%6.97%8.82%11.14%13.85%15.56%17.36%17.78%
Aarhus GF12.63%17.92%18.07%14.22%12.16%9.52%6.62%4.32%2.87%1.67%
Koge BK5.52%10.45%13.58%14.17%13.62%12.61%10.43%8.80%6.31%4.51%
B 19032.77%6.62%8.97%11.98%12.37%13.31%13.09%11.90%10.70%8.29%
Frem3.38%7.13%10.65%12.67%13.39%13.44%12.36%10.95%9.29%6.74%
B.931.42%3.47%6.54%9.27%10.67%12.23%13.89%14.78%14.04%13.69%
Esbjerg0.96%2.18%4.55%6.73%9.20%10.86%12.76%15.36%17.60%19.80%
B 19090.52%1.62%3.12%4.60%7.13%8.84%12.07%15.22%20.21%26.67%
KB Copenhagen21.79%25.58%17.79%12.24%8.66%5.76%3.63%2.47%1.39%0.69%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Clear Edge
48.89%26.67%24.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
241 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
086.68800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.52 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
AB Gladsaxe, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Comfortable
00.140.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.62 * Some Luck: 2.62 to 3.93 * Lucky: 3.93 to 5.23 * Wild Swing: 5.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.33 * Off: 2.33 to 3.1 * Way Off: 3.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.73 * A Surprise: 0.73 to 1.17 * Several Surprises: 1.17 to 1.61 * Many Surprises: 1.61 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.13 points
Some Luck
03.278
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.944
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.96%
AB Gladsaxe
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.81%
KB Copenhagen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.89
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Clear Edge
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.39
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.63
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.58
Overconfident
0.4553811.001.54462
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
AB Gladsaxe 99.84% 0.16%
KB Copenhagen 99.31% 0.69%
Aarhus GF 98.33% 1.67%
Koge BK 95.49% 4.51%
Frem 93.26% 6.74%
B 1903 91.71% 8.29%
B.93 86.31% 13.69%
Odense 82.22% 17.78%
Esbjerg 80.20% 19.80%
B 1909 73.33% 26.67%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1950-08-19 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1479 1645 32.22% 27.84% 39.93% +0.3 1
1950-08-19 @ B.93 D 0-0 1645 1479 39.93% 27.84% 32.22% -0.3 1
1950-08-20 Esbjerg W 5-0 1621 1478 66.04% 24.07% 9.90% +8.2 2
1950-08-20 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-5 1478 1621 9.90% 24.07% 66.04% -8.2 0
1950-08-20 Frem L 0-3 1467 1508 48.50% 28.08% 23.43% -19.6 0
1950-08-20 @ B 1909 W 3-0 1508 1467 23.43% 28.08% 48.50% +19.6 2
1950-08-20 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1513 1583 45.02% 28.25% 26.72% +8.6 2
1950-08-20 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1583 1513 26.72% 28.25% 45.02% -8.5 0
1950-08-20 Koge BK L 0-4 1514 1543 49.88% 27.96% 22.16% -26.2 0
1950-08-20 @ Odense W 4-0 1543 1514 22.16% 27.96% 49.88% +26.2 2
1950-08-30 B 1903 W 2-1 1528 1522 53.71% 27.50% 18.79% +3.2 4
1950-08-30 @ Frem L 1-2 1522 1528 18.79% 27.50% 53.71% -3.2 2
1950-08-31 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1644 1629 54.67% 27.34% 17.99% -13.0 1
1950-08-31 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1629 1644 17.99% 27.34% 54.67% +13.0 4
1950-09-16 B.93 W 2-1 1531 1480 58.21% 26.62% 15.17% +2.7 6
1950-09-16 @ Frem L 1-2 1480 1531 15.17% 26.62% 58.21% -2.7 1
1950-09-17 Odense W 4-1 1574 1487 61.43% 25.74% 12.83% +5.6 2
1950-09-17 @ Aarhus GF L 1-4 1487 1574 12.83% 25.74% 61.43% -5.6 0
1950-09-17 B 1903 W 2-1 1642 1519 64.50% 24.68% 10.82% +1.9 6
1950-09-17 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1519 1642 10.82% 24.68% 64.50% -1.9 2
1950-09-17 B 1909 L 0-1 1631 1447 69.07% 22.69% 8.23% -9.7 1
1950-09-17 @ KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1447 1631 8.23% 22.69% 69.07% +9.7 2
1950-09-17 Esbjerg W 3-2 1569 1470 62.50% 25.40% 12.10% +2.0 4
1950-09-17 @ Koge BK L 2-3 1470 1569 12.10% 25.40% 62.50% -2.0 0
1950-09-30 Koge BK W 2-0 1622 1571 58.15% 26.64% 15.21% +5.4 3
1950-09-30 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1571 1622 15.21% 26.64% 58.15% -5.4 4
1950-10-01 Frem W 4-3 1644 1533 63.44% 25.07% 11.49% +1.9 8
1950-10-01 @ AB Gladsaxe L 3-4 1533 1644 11.49% 25.07% 63.44% -1.9 6
1950-10-01 B 1903 W 1-0 1457 1517 46.27% 28.21% 25.53% +4.4 4
1950-10-01 @ B 1909 L 0-1 1517 1457 25.53% 28.21% 46.27% -4.4 2
1950-10-01 Odense W 4-1 1477 1482 52.58% 27.66% 19.76% +8.2 3
1950-10-01 @ B.93 L 1-4 1482 1477 19.76% 27.66% 52.58% -8.3 0
1950-10-01 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1468 1580 39.44% 28.26% 32.30% +8.5 2
1950-10-01 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1580 1468 32.30% 28.26% 39.44% -8.5 2
1950-10-07 Frem D 0-0 1627 1532 62.16% 25.51% 12.33% -1.9 4
1950-10-07 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1532 1627 12.33% 25.51% 62.16% +1.9 7
1950-10-08 B 1909 W 6-0 1571 1461 63.38% 25.09% 11.52% +11.4 4
1950-10-08 @ Aarhus GF L 0-6 1461 1571 11.52% 25.09% 63.38% -11.4 4
1950-10-08 Koge BK W 2-0 1485 1566 43.65% 28.28% 28.06% +8.9 5
1950-10-08 @ B.93 L 0-2 1566 1485 28.06% 28.28% 43.65% -8.9 4
1950-10-08 Esbjerg W 4-1 1512 1476 56.78% 26.94% 16.27% +7.0 4
1950-10-08 @ B 1903 L 1-4 1476 1512 16.27% 26.94% 56.78% -7.0 2
1950-10-08 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1474 1646 31.28% 27.75% 40.98% +0.3 1
1950-10-08 @ Odense D 0-0 1646 1474 40.98% 27.75% 31.28% -0.3 9
1950-10-29 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1646 1583 59.30% 26.35% 14.35% -8.6 9
1950-10-29 @ AB Gladsaxe W 1-0 1583 1646 14.35% 26.35% 59.30% +8.6 6
1950-10-29 B 1909 W 3-2 1494 1450 57.55% 26.78% 15.68% +2.6 7
1950-10-29 @ B.93 L 2-3 1450 1494 15.68% 26.78% 57.55% -2.6 4
1950-10-29 KB Copenhagen W 4-2 1469 1625 33.44% 27.95% 38.61% +8.7 4
1950-10-29 @ Esbjerg L 2-4 1625 1469 38.61% 27.95% 33.44% -8.7 4
1950-10-29 B 1903 W 3-1 1557 1519 56.92% 26.92% 16.16% +4.9 6
1950-10-29 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1519 1557 16.16% 26.92% 56.92% -4.9 4
1950-10-29 Frem L 1-4 1474 1533 46.28% 28.21% 25.52% -15.9 1
1950-10-29 @ Odense W 4-1 1533 1474 25.52% 28.21% 46.28% +15.9 9
1950-11-12 B.93 D 3-3 1591 1497 62.10% 25.53% 12.37% -1.1 7
1950-11-12 @ Aarhus GF D 3-3 1497 1591 12.37% 25.53% 62.10% +1.0 8
1950-11-12 Odense D 0-0 1447 1458 51.95% 27.74% 20.31% -1.1 5
1950-11-12 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1458 1447 20.31% 27.74% 51.95% +1.1 2
1950-11-12 KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1514 1616 40.82% 28.28% 30.89% +8.2 6
1950-11-12 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1616 1514 30.89% 28.28% 40.82% -8.2 4
1950-11-12 Esbjerg D 1-1 1549 1478 60.09% 26.14% 13.78% -1.6 10
1950-11-12 @ Frem D 1-1 1478 1549 13.78% 26.14% 60.09% +1.6 5
1950-11-12 AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1562 1637 44.29% 28.27% 27.44% -23.7 6
1950-11-12 @ Koge BK W 4-0 1637 1562 27.44% 28.27% 44.29% +23.7 11
1950-11-26 Koge BK W 4-1 1446 1538 42.18% 28.29% 29.52% +11.3 7
1950-11-26 @ B 1909 L 1-4 1538 1446 29.52% 28.29% 42.18% -11.3 6
1950-11-26 B.93 W 1-0 1523 1498 55.66% 27.17% 17.18% +3.2 8
1950-11-26 @ B 1903 L 0-1 1498 1523 17.18% 27.17% 55.66% -3.2 8
1950-11-26 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1548 1590 48.32% 28.09% 23.59% -0.6 11
1950-11-26 @ Frem D 2-2 1590 1548 23.59% 28.09% 48.32% +0.6 8
1950-11-26 Esbjerg W 2-0 1459 1479 50.90% 27.86% 21.23% +7.1 4
1950-11-26 @ Odense L 0-2 1479 1459 21.23% 27.86% 50.90% -7.1 5
1950-12-03 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1495 1661 32.08% 27.83% 40.10% -8.4 8
1950-12-03 @ B.93 W 3-1 1661 1495 40.10% 27.83% 32.08% +8.4 13
1950-12-03 B 1909 W 3-1 1472 1458 54.63% 27.35% 18.02% +5.4 7
1950-12-03 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1458 1472 18.02% 27.35% 54.63% -5.4 7
1950-12-03 Odense W 5-0 1608 1466 65.92% 24.11% 9.96% +8.3 6
1950-12-03 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-5 1466 1608 9.96% 24.11% 65.92% -8.3 4
1950-12-03 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1527 1591 45.71% 28.23% 26.06% -0.5 7
1950-12-03 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1591 1527 26.06% 28.23% 45.71% +0.5 9
1950-12-10 KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1591 1616 50.34% 27.92% 21.74% -0.6 10
1950-12-10 @ Aarhus GF D 3-3 1616 1591 21.74% 27.92% 50.34% +0.6 7
1950-12-10 B.93 L 1-4 1478 1486 52.17% 27.71% 20.12% -17.6 7
1950-12-10 @ Esbjerg W 4-1 1486 1478 20.12% 27.71% 52.17% +17.6 10
1950-12-10 Frem W 3-0 1526 1547 50.82% 27.87% 21.31% +10.4 9
1950-12-10 @ Koge BK L 0-3 1547 1526 21.31% 27.87% 50.82% -10.4 11
1951-03-18 B 1903 W 3-0 1460 1526 45.50% 28.24% 26.26% +12.3 9
1951-03-18 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1526 1460 26.26% 28.24% 45.50% -12.3 8
1951-03-18 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1458 1617 33.05% 27.91% 39.04% +6.0 6
1951-03-18 @ Odense L 0-1 1617 1458 39.04% 27.91% 33.05% -6.0 7
1951-03-22 KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1537 1611 44.44% 28.27% 27.30% -5.9 9
1951-03-22 @ Koge BK W 3-2 1611 1537 27.30% 28.27% 44.44% +5.9 9
1951-03-22 B.93 W 3-1 1452 1504 47.24% 28.16% 24.61% +7.0 9
1951-03-22 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1504 1452 24.61% 28.16% 47.24% -7.0 10
1951-03-25 AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1472 1669 28.24% 27.37% 44.39% -4.7 9
1951-03-25 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1669 1472 44.39% 27.37% 28.24% +4.7 15
1951-03-25 B 1903 D 1-1 1617 1513 62.84% 25.28% 11.88% -1.8 10
1951-03-25 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1513 1617 11.88% 25.28% 62.84% +1.8 9
1951-03-26 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1497 1591 41.90% 28.29% 29.80% -6.3 10
1951-03-26 @ B.93 W 1-0 1591 1497 29.80% 28.29% 41.90% +6.3 12
1951-03-26 B 1909 W 2-1 1464 1459 53.62% 27.51% 18.87% +3.2 8
1951-03-26 @ Odense L 1-2 1459 1464 18.87% 27.51% 53.62% -3.2 9
1951-03-26 Koge BK L 1-3 1537 1531 53.73% 27.50% 18.77% -12.8 11
1951-03-26 @ Frem W 3-1 1531 1537 18.77% 27.50% 53.73% +12.8 11
1951-04-01 B 1903 L 0-2 1597 1515 61.00% 25.87% 13.13% -16.6 12
1951-04-01 @ Aarhus GF W 2-0 1515 1597 13.13% 25.87% 61.00% +16.5 11
1951-04-01 B.93 W 3-0 1544 1490 58.39% 26.58% 15.03% +7.7 13
1951-04-01 @ Koge BK L 0-3 1490 1544 15.03% 26.58% 58.39% -7.7 10
1951-04-07 Frem D 1-1 1532 1524 53.92% 27.47% 18.62% -1.1 12
1951-04-07 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1524 1532 18.62% 27.47% 53.92% +1.2 12
1951-04-08 Koge BK W 2-0 1468 1551 43.23% 28.29% 28.48% +9.0 11
1951-04-08 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1551 1468 28.48% 28.29% 43.23% -9.0 13
1951-04-08 B.93 L 0-2 1467 1483 51.41% 27.80% 20.78% -14.2 8
1951-04-08 @ Odense W 2-0 1483 1467 20.78% 27.80% 51.41% +14.2 12
1951-04-08 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1456 1674 25.83% 26.98% 47.19% -4.1 9
1951-04-08 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1674 1456 47.19% 26.98% 25.83% +4.1 17
1951-04-08 Aarhus GF L 1-2 1615 1581 56.63% 26.98% 16.39% -7.7 10
1951-04-08 @ KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1581 1615 16.39% 26.98% 56.63% +7.7 14
1951-04-11 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1678 1608 60.00% 26.16% 13.84% +2.5 19
1951-04-11 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1608 1678 13.84% 26.16% 60.00% -2.5 10
1951-04-14 Koge BK D 2-2 1681 1542 65.65% 24.23% 10.12% -1.4 20
1951-04-14 @ AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1542 1681 10.12% 24.23% 65.65% +1.4 14
1951-04-15 Odense L 0-4 1531 1453 60.61% 25.99% 13.40% -31.2 12
1951-04-15 @ B 1903 W 4-0 1453 1531 13.40% 25.99% 60.61% +31.2 10
1951-04-15 KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1452 1605 33.80% 27.97% 38.22% +0.1 10
1951-04-15 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1605 1452 38.22% 27.97% 33.80% -0.1 11
1951-04-15 Frem D 1-1 1588 1525 59.32% 26.34% 14.33% -1.5 15
1951-04-15 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1525 1588 14.33% 26.34% 59.32% +1.5 13
1951-04-15 Esbjerg W 3-2 1497 1476 55.23% 27.25% 17.53% +2.9 14
1951-04-15 @ B.93 L 2-3 1476 1497 17.53% 27.25% 55.23% -2.9 11
1951-04-20 Odense W 1-0 1544 1484 58.98% 26.43% 14.59% +2.7 16
1951-04-20 @ Koge BK L 0-1 1484 1544 14.59% 26.43% 58.98% -2.7 10
1951-04-20 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1452 1587 36.34% 28.14% 35.53% -0.0 11
1951-04-20 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1587 1452 35.53% 28.14% 36.34% +0.0 16
1951-04-20 Frem W 3-1 1474 1527 47.07% 28.17% 24.76% +7.0 13
1951-04-20 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1527 1474 24.76% 28.17% 47.07% -7.0 13
1951-04-22 B 1909 D 0-0 1520 1452 59.74% 26.23% 14.02% -1.7 14
1951-04-22 @ Frem D 0-0 1452 1520 14.02% 26.23% 59.74% +1.7 12
1951-04-22 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1587 1679 42.12% 28.29% 29.59% -0.4 17
1951-04-22 @ Aarhus GF D 0-0 1679 1587 29.59% 28.29% 42.12% +0.4 21
1951-04-22 Esbjerg D 1-1 1605 1481 64.54% 24.67% 10.79% -1.9 12
1951-04-22 @ KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1481 1605 10.79% 24.67% 64.54% +1.9 14
1951-04-22 B 1903 W 1-0 1482 1499 51.16% 27.83% 21.01% +3.8 12
1951-04-22 @ Odense L 0-1 1499 1482 21.01% 27.83% 51.16% -3.8 12
1951-04-25 Frem W 1-0 1500 1518 51.13% 27.84% 21.03% +3.8 16
1951-04-25 @ B.93 L 0-1 1518 1500 21.03% 27.84% 51.13% -3.8 14
1951-04-26 AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1496 1680 29.84% 27.58% 42.58% -4.6 12
1951-04-26 @ B 1903 W 2-1 1680 1496 42.58% 27.58% 29.84% +4.6 23
1951-04-28 B.93 W 2-1 1684 1504 68.82% 22.82% 8.36% +1.5 25
1951-04-28 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1504 1684 8.36% 22.82% 68.82% -1.5 16
1951-04-29 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1485 1586 40.96% 28.29% 30.75% +9.5 14
1951-04-29 @ Odense L 0-2 1586 1485 30.75% 28.29% 40.96% -9.5 17
1951-04-29 Esbjerg W 3-2 1454 1482 49.91% 27.96% 22.13% +3.5 14
1951-04-29 @ B 1909 L 2-3 1482 1454 22.13% 27.96% 49.91% -3.5 14
1951-04-30 Koge BK W 3-0 1491 1546 46.78% 28.18% 25.04% +11.8 14
1951-04-30 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1546 1491 25.04% 28.18% 46.78% -11.8 16
1951-05-02 B.93 W 3-0 1603 1502 62.62% 25.36% 12.02% +6.2 14
1951-05-02 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1502 1603 12.02% 25.36% 62.62% -6.2 16
1951-05-03 B 1909 D 1-1 1686 1457 72.16% 21.09% 6.75% -2.3 26
1951-05-03 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1457 1686 6.75% 21.09% 72.16% +2.3 15
1951-05-03 Odense L 0-1 1514 1495 55.11% 27.27% 17.62% -8.0 14
1951-05-03 @ Frem W 1-0 1495 1514 17.62% 27.27% 55.11% +8.0 16
1951-05-03 Koge BK D 1-1 1577 1535 57.37% 26.82% 15.81% -1.4 18
1951-05-03 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1535 1577 15.81% 26.82% 57.37% +1.4 17
1951-05-05 B 1903 D 1-1 1496 1503 52.36% 27.69% 19.95% -1.0 17
1951-05-05 @ B.93 D 1-1 1503 1496 19.95% 27.69% 52.36% +1.1 15
1951-05-06 Esbjerg L 2-3 1576 1479 62.26% 25.48% 12.26% -8.0 18
1951-05-06 @ Aarhus GF W 3-2 1479 1576 12.26% 25.48% 62.26% +8.0 16
1951-05-06 Odense D 0-0 1683 1503 68.82% 22.82% 8.36% -2.4 27
1951-05-06 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1503 1683 8.36% 22.82% 68.82% +2.4 17
1951-05-06 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1506 1609 40.69% 28.28% 31.03% +9.5 16
1951-05-06 @ Frem L 0-2 1609 1506 31.03% 28.28% 40.69% -9.6 14
1951-05-06 B 1909 D 2-2 1536 1459 60.54% 26.01% 13.45% -1.2 18
1951-05-06 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1459 1536 13.45% 26.01% 60.54% +1.2 16
1951-05-08 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1516 1681 32.21% 27.84% 39.95% +0.2 17
1951-05-08 @ Frem D 1-1 1681 1516 39.95% 27.84% 32.21% -0.2 28
1951-05-12 B 1909 W 3-1 1504 1461 57.47% 26.79% 15.73% +4.8 17
1951-05-12 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1461 1504 15.73% 26.79% 57.47% -4.8 16
1951-05-20 Odense L 1-3 1487 1505 51.11% 27.84% 21.05% -12.2 16
1951-05-20 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1505 1487 21.05% 27.84% 51.11% +12.2 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-09-17 8.23% B 1909 1447 1 @ KB Copenhagen 1631 0
2 1951-05-06 12.26% Esbjerg 1479 3 @ Aarhus GF 1576 2
3 1951-04-01 13.13% B 1903 1515 2 @ Aarhus GF 1597 0
4 1951-04-15 13.40% Odense 1453 4 @ B 1903 1531 0
5 1950-10-29 14.35% Aarhus GF 1583 1 @ AB Gladsaxe 1646 0
6 1951-04-08 16.39% Aarhus GF 1581 2 @ KB Copenhagen 1615 1
7 1951-05-03 17.62% Odense 1495 1 @ Frem 1514 0
8 1950-08-31 17.99% AB Gladsaxe 1629 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1644 1
9 1951-03-26 18.77% Koge BK 1531 3 @ Frem 1537 1
10 1950-12-10 20.12% B.93 1486 4 @ Esbjerg 1478 1
11 1951-04-08 20.78% B.93 1483 2 @ Odense 1467 0
12 1951-05-20 21.05% Odense 1505 3 @ Esbjerg 1487 1
13 1950-08-20 22.16% Koge BK 1543 4 @ Odense 1514 0
14 1950-08-20 23.43% Frem 1508 3 @ B 1909 1467 0
15 1950-10-29 25.52% Frem 1533 4 @ Odense 1474 1
16 1951-03-22 27.30% KB Copenhagen 1611 3 @ Koge BK 1537 2
17 1950-11-12 27.44% AB Gladsaxe 1637 4 @ Koge BK 1562 0
18 1951-03-26 29.80% Aarhus GF 1591 1 @ B.93 1497 0
19 1951-03-18 33.05% @ Odense 1458 1 KB Copenhagen 1617 0
20 1950-10-29 33.44% @ Esbjerg 1469 4 KB Copenhagen 1625 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-04-15 31.23 Odense 4 1453 13.40% @ B 1903 0 1531 60.61% 25.99%
2 1950-08-20 26.24 Koge BK 4 1543 22.16% @ Odense 0 1514 49.88% 27.96%
3 1950-11-12 23.71 AB Gladsaxe 4 1637 27.44% @ Koge BK 0 1562 44.29% 28.27%
4 1950-08-20 19.59 Frem 3 1508 23.43% @ B 1909 0 1467 48.50% 28.08%
5 1950-12-10 17.61 B.93 4 1486 20.12% @ Esbjerg 1 1478 52.17% 27.71%
6 1951-04-01 16.55 B 1903 2 1515 13.13% @ Aarhus GF 0 1597 61.00% 25.87%
7 1950-10-29 15.88 Frem 4 1533 25.52% @ Odense 1 1474 46.28% 28.21%
8 1951-04-08 14.20 B.93 2 1483 20.78% @ Odense 0 1467 51.41% 27.80%
9 1950-08-31 12.99 AB Gladsaxe 3 1629 17.99% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1644 54.67% 27.34%
10 1951-03-26 12.79 Koge BK 3 1531 18.77% @ Frem 1 1537 53.73% 27.50%
11 1951-03-18 12.26 @ Esbjerg 3 1460 45.50% B 1903 0 1526 26.26% 28.24%
12 1951-05-20 12.23 Odense 3 1505 21.05% @ Esbjerg 1 1487 51.11% 27.84%
13 1951-04-30 11.83 @ B 1903 3 1491 46.78% Koge BK 0 1546 25.04% 28.18%
14 1950-10-08 11.41 @ Aarhus GF 6 1571 63.38% B 1909 0 1461 11.52% 25.09%
15 1950-11-26 11.29 @ B 1909 4 1446 42.18% Koge BK 1 1538 29.52% 28.29%
16 1950-12-10 10.42 @ Koge BK 3 1526 50.82% Frem 0 1547 21.31% 27.87%
17 1950-09-17 9.73 B 1909 1 1447 8.23% @ KB Copenhagen 0 1631 69.07% 22.69%
18 1951-05-06 9.56 @ Frem 2 1506 40.69% KB Copenhagen 0 1609 31.03% 28.28%
19 1951-04-29 9.50 @ Odense 2 1485 40.96% Aarhus GF 0 1586 30.75% 28.29%
20 1951-04-08 8.98 @ Esbjerg 2 1468 43.23% Koge BK 0 1551 28.48% 28.29%
21 1950-10-08 8.88 @ B.93 2 1485 43.65% Koge BK 0 1566 28.06% 28.28%
22 1950-10-29 8.65 @ Esbjerg 4 1469 33.44% KB Copenhagen 2 1625 38.61% 27.95%
23 1950-10-29 8.56 Aarhus GF 1 1583 14.35% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1646 59.30% 26.35%
24 1950-08-20 8.56 @ B 1903 2 1513 45.02% Aarhus GF 0 1583 26.72% 28.25%
25 1950-10-01 8.52 @ Esbjerg 3 1468 39.44% Aarhus GF 1 1580 32.30% 28.26%