1949-50 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KB Copenhagen

28 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1948-49

Relegated

Osterbros

8 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Aarhus GF

5.45 points above expected

26 points · 20.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Osterbros

6.36 points below expected

8 points · 14.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	KB Copenhagen Champion	18	12	4	2	28	36	11	+25	25.59	+2.41
2	AB Gladsaxe	18	12	3	3	27	48	18	+30	23.20	+3.80
3	Aarhus GF	18	12	2	4	26	44	24	+20	20.55	+5.45
4	Koge BK	18	9	3	6	21	34	29	+5	18.95	+2.05
5	B 1903	18	6	3	9	15	20	27	-7	16.45	-1.45
6	Frem	18	4	7	7	15	21	29	-8	17.64	-2.64
7	Odense	18	6	2	10	14	33	42	-9	15.16	-1.16
8	B.93	18	5	4	9	14	25	41	-16	13.73	+0.27
9	Esbjerg	18	5	2	11	12	23	37	-14	14.38	-2.38
10	Osterbros Relegated	18	2	4	12	8	16	42	-26	14.36	-6.36

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KB Copenhagen	1815	28	25.59	+2.41	81.2%	11	20	23	26	28	31	36
AB Gladsaxe	1776	27	23.20	+3.80	89.6%	9	17	21	23	26	29	34
Aarhus GF	1716	26	20.55	+5.45	95.6%	9	15	18	21	23	26	33
Koge BK	1638	21	18.95	+2.05	76.0%	5	13	17	19	21	25	32
B 1903	1580	15	16.45	-1.45	40.0%	2	11	14	16	19	22	30
Odense	1579	14	15.16	-1.16	43.1%	4	10	13	15	18	21	29
Frem	1571	15	17.64	-2.64	27.5%	5	12	15	18	20	23	31
B.93	1518	14	13.73	+0.27	59.4%	2	8	11	14	16	20	26
Esbjerg	1514	12	14.38	-2.38	29.7%	3	9	12	14	17	20	29
Osterbros	1474	8	14.36	-6.36	4.3%	2	9	12	14	17	20	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B.9	ESB	FRE	KC	KB	ODE	OST
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-1-0 3.14	2-0-0 3.78	2-0-0 4.16	1-0-1 4.12	1-1-0 3.80	1-1-0 2.28	0-0-2 3.71	2-0-0 3.99	2-0-0 4.08
Aarhus GF	0-1-1 2.46	—	2-0-0 3.55	2-0-0 3.79	2-0-0 3.89	1-0-1 3.39	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 3.04	2-0-0 3.33	2-0-0 3.55
B 1903	0-0-2 1.83	0-0-2 2.06	—	1-1-0 3.15	1-0-1 3.10	1-1-0 2.56	0-0-2 1.50	2-0-0 2.51	0-0-2 3.06	1-1-0 3.16
B.93	0-0-2 1.46	0-0-2 1.82	0-1-1 2.45	—	1-0-1 2.72	2-0-0 2.16	0-1-1 1.13	0-1-1 1.79	1-0-1 2.64	1-1-0 2.61
Esbjerg	1-0-1 1.49	0-0-2 1.71	1-0-1 2.50	1-0-1 2.88	—	0-1-1 2.31	0-0-2 1.10	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.89
Frem	0-1-1 1.81	1-0-1 2.21	0-1-1 3.04	0-0-2 3.44	1-1-0 3.30	—	0-1-1 1.75	0-1-1 2.66	1-1-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.29
KB Copenhagen	0-1-1 3.32	1-1-0 3.49	2-0-0 4.12	1-1-0 4.50	2-0-0 4.53	1-1-0 3.86	—	2-0-0 3.86	1-0-1 4.46	2-0-0 4.45
Koge BK	2-0-0 1.90	1-0-1 2.56	0-0-2 3.10	1-1-0 3.82	1-1-0 3.48	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 1.74	—	1-0-1 3.62	2-0-0 3.51
Odense	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-2 2.27	2-0-0 2.54	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 1.17	1-0-1 1.99	—	0-1-1 3.10
Osterbros	0-0-2 1.53	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.31	0-0-2 1.18	0-0-2 2.09	1-1-0 2.50	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.77	+5.7
Allowed	0.79	-5.9
Differential	0.97	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	6.67%	4.44%	2.78%	3.89%	0.56%	22.78%
1	6.67%	7.78%	8.89%	4.44%	1.67%	2.22%	31.67%
2	4.44%	8.89%	6.67%	1.11%	1.11%	1.11%	23.33%
3	2.78%	4.44%	1.11%	—	0.56%	1.11%	10.00%
4	3.89%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	7.22%
5+	0.56%	2.22%	1.11%	1.11%	—	—	5.00%
Total	22.78%	31.67%	23.33%	10.00%	7.22%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.67	+0.00
SD	1.52	1.52	2.30
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	44.44%	22.22%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.00	+1.67
SD	2.33	1.14	2.68
CV	0.87	1.14	—
Max	8	4	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	1.33	+1.11
SD	1.98	1.41	2.45
CV	0.81	1.06	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	38.89%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	50.00%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.50	-0.39
SD	1.08	1.25	1.94
CV	0.97	0.83	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.28	-0.89
SD	0.98	1.96	2.11
CV	0.70	0.86	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	50.00%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.06	-0.78
SD	1.41	1.30	1.96
CV	1.10	0.63	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	50.00%
2	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	33.33%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.61	-0.44
SD	0.71	1.04	1.29
CV	0.61	0.64	—
Max	2	3	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	55.56%	27.78%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	0.61	+1.39
SD	1.50	0.78	1.58
CV	0.75	1.27	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.61	+0.28
SD	1.23	1.33	2.16
CV	0.65	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.33	-0.50
SD	1.54	1.94	2.46
CV	0.84	0.83	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	38.89%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	50.00%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	2.33	-1.44
SD	1.02	1.88	2.23
CV	1.15	0.81	—
Max	4	8	+3
Min	0	1	-7

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aarhus GF	26	20.55	+5.45
2	AB Gladsaxe	27	23.20	+3.80
3	KB Copenhagen	28	25.59	+2.41
4	Koge BK	21	18.95	+2.05
5	B.93	14	13.73	+0.27

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Osterbros	8	14.36	-6.36
2	Frem	15	17.64	-2.64
3	Esbjerg	12	14.38	-2.38
4	B 1903	15	16.45	-1.45
5	Odense	14	15.16	-1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	5	Sep 25 – Nov 13	1 in 104
2	Aarhus GF	6	Aug 21 – Oct 30	1 in 78
3	AB Gladsaxe	5	Apr 6 – May 4	1 in 15
4	KB Copenhagen	5	Aug 22 – Oct 15	1 in 14
5	B 1903	2	May 5 – May 8	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Esbjerg	5	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 35
2	Osterbros	4	Aug 20 – Oct 2	1 in 13
3	Frem	2	Oct 16 – Oct 30	1 in 9
4	Odense	4	Apr 16 – May 5	1 in 8
5	B 1903	2	Oct 30 – Nov 13	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Koge BK	8	Sep 25 – Mar 19	1 in 88
2	Odense	3	Nov 13 – Dec 18	1 in 15
3	Aarhus GF	6	Aug 21 – Oct 30	1 in 10
4	Esbjerg	3	Apr 16 – Apr 30	1 in 9
5	AB Gladsaxe	6	Apr 6 – May 9	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Osterbros	12	Nov 5 – May 8	1 in 94
2	B 1903	6	Sep 3 – Nov 19	1 in 24
3	Frem	6	Aug 22 – Oct 30	1 in 17
4	Koge BK	3	Apr 6 – Apr 23	1 in 9
5	Esbjerg	5	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
KB Copenhagen	57.38%	25.58%	10.17%	4.20%	1.62%	0.61%	0.28%	0.10%	0.06%	—
AB Gladsaxe	27.83%	34.17%	18.08%	9.78%	5.03%	2.74%	1.43%	0.64%	0.19%	0.11%
Aarhus GF	8.44%	18.45%	24.70%	18.47%	11.89%	7.41%	5.03%	3.22%	1.83%	0.56%
Koge BK	3.27%	9.55%	18.07%	20.15%	17.02%	11.86%	8.87%	5.96%	3.44%	1.81%
B 1903	0.91%	3.05%	7.33%	11.48%	14.70%	16.02%	14.70%	13.73%	10.26%	7.82%
Frem	1.39%	5.18%	10.95%	14.98%	17.32%	15.93%	13.32%	9.62%	7.22%	4.09%
Odense	0.28%	1.56%	3.98%	7.26%	10.82%	13.76%	15.93%	16.32%	16.14%	13.95%
B.93	0.09%	0.67%	1.80%	3.68%	6.58%	9.62%	12.48%	16.66%	21.01%	27.41%
Esbjerg	0.19%	0.96%	2.50%	5.39%	7.78%	11.81%	14.63%	17.06%	19.38%	20.30%
Osterbros	0.22%	0.83%	2.42%	4.61%	7.24%	10.24%	13.33%	16.69%	20.47%	23.95%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.44%

Slight Edge

47.78%18.89%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge

143 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

050.54400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.20 goals

Neutral

-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

57%

KB Copenhagen, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.8 * Some Luck: 2.8 to 4.2 * Lucky: 4.2 to 5.6 * Wild Swing: 5.6 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.28 * Close: 1.28 to 1.92 * Off: 1.92 to 2.56 * Way Off: 2.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.73 * A Surprise: 0.73 to 1.16 * Several Surprises: 1.16 to 1.6 * Many Surprises: 1.6 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.33 points

Some Luck

03.509

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.60

Pinpoint

01.604

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

95.58%

Aarhus GF

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

4.35%

Osterbros

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

A Surprise

00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.65

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

88%

Strong Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

53%

Very Frequent

0%48%100%

Blowouts

Expected

26%

Very Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.56

Highly Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.90

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.82

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalky

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

20%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.96

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.27

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.109

Well Within Noise

00.1680.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen	100%	—
AB Gladsaxe	99.89%	0.11%
Aarhus GF	99.44%	0.56%
Koge BK	98.19%	1.81%
Frem	95.91%	4.09%
B 1903	92.18%	7.82%
Odense	86.05%	13.95%
Esbjerg	79.70%	20.30%
Osterbros	76.05%	23.95%
B.93	72.59%	27.41%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1949-08-20	Osterbros	W 8-1	1679	1587	60.61%	19.64%	19.75%	+23.4	2
1949-08-20	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-8	1587	1679	19.75%	19.64%	60.61%	-23.4	0
1949-08-21	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1554	1573	47.83%	20.02%	32.15%	+6.7	2
1949-08-21	@ B.93	L 1-2	1573	1554	32.15%	20.02%	47.83%	-6.7	0
1949-08-21	Koge BK	W 2-1	1604	1589	52.17%	19.95%	27.88%	+6.0	2
1949-08-21	@ B 1903	L 1-2	1589	1604	27.88%	19.95%	52.17%	-6.0	0
1949-08-21	Aarhus GF	L 3-6	1596	1622	46.90%	20.03%	33.07%	-18.0	0
1949-08-21	@ Odense	W 6-3	1622	1596	33.07%	20.03%	46.90%	+18.0	2
1949-08-22	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1634	1742	35.38%	19.97%	44.65%	-12.6	0
1949-08-22	@ Frem	W 3-1	1742	1634	44.65%	19.97%	35.38%	+12.6	2
1949-09-03	B 1903	D 1-1	1561	1610	43.75%	20.04%	36.21%	-0.3	3
1949-09-03	@ B.93	D 1-1	1610	1561	36.21%	20.04%	43.75%	+0.3	3
1949-09-04	Odense	W 5-0	1702	1578	63.64%	19.44%	16.93%	+18.0	4
1949-09-04	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-5	1578	1702	16.93%	19.44%	63.64%	-18.0	0
1949-09-04	Frem	D 2-2	1566	1621	42.99%	20.04%	36.97%	-0.2	1
1949-09-04	@ Esbjerg	D 2-2	1621	1566	36.97%	20.04%	42.99%	+0.2	1
1949-09-04	KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1583	1755	27.35%	19.75%	52.91%	-14.3	0
1949-09-04	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1755	1583	52.91%	19.75%	27.35%	+14.3	4
1949-09-04	Aarhus GF	L 1-5	1564	1640	39.91%	20.02%	40.06%	-25.3	0
1949-09-04	@ Osterbros	W 5-1	1640	1564	40.06%	20.02%	39.91%	+25.3	4
1949-09-25	Frem	W 2-1	1665	1621	55.57%	19.86%	24.57%	+5.4	6
1949-09-25	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1621	1665	24.57%	19.86%	55.57%	-5.4	1
1949-09-25	Esbjerg	W 4-2	1720	1566	66.12%	19.23%	14.65%	+5.2	6
1949-09-25	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1566	1720	14.65%	19.23%	66.12%	-5.2	1
1949-09-25	B 1903	W 3-2	1769	1610	66.52%	19.19%	14.30%	+3.1	6
1949-09-25	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1610	1769	14.30%	19.19%	66.52%	-3.1	3
1949-09-25	Osterbros	W 2-1	1569	1538	53.99%	19.91%	26.10%	+5.7	2
1949-09-25	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1538	1569	26.10%	19.91%	53.99%	-5.6	0
1949-09-25	B.93	W 5-3	1560	1560	50.20%	19.99%	29.81%	+9.2	2
1949-09-25	@ Odense	L 3-5	1560	1560	29.81%	19.99%	50.20%	-9.2	3
1949-10-01	Frem	D 2-2	1607	1616	49.18%	20.00%	30.82%	-0.6	4
1949-10-01	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1616	1607	30.82%	20.00%	49.18%	+0.6	2
1949-10-02	Aarhus GF	L 2-6	1551	1671	33.96%	19.94%	46.10%	-18.8	3
1949-10-02	@ B.93	W 6-2	1671	1551	46.10%	19.94%	33.96%	+18.8	8
1949-10-02	Odense	W 6-2	1561	1569	49.25%	20.00%	30.75%	+17.4	3
1949-10-02	@ Esbjerg	L 2-6	1569	1561	30.75%	20.00%	49.25%	-17.4	2
1949-10-02	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-0	1574	1725	29.86%	19.84%	50.30%	+19.5	4
1949-10-02	@ Koge BK	L 0-2	1725	1574	50.30%	19.84%	29.86%	-19.5	6
1949-10-02	KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1533	1772	20.21%	19.34%	60.45%	-17.0	0
1949-10-02	@ Osterbros	W 4-0	1772	1533	60.45%	19.34%	20.21%	+17.0	8
1949-10-15	B.93	W 3-0	1789	1532	72.99%	18.26%	8.75%	+6.0	10
1949-10-15	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1532	1789	8.75%	18.26%	72.99%	-6.0	3
1949-10-16	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1689	1578	62.45%	19.52%	18.03%	+8.2	10
1949-10-16	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1578	1689	18.03%	19.52%	62.45%	-8.2	3
1949-10-16	Koge BK	L 1-3	1616	1594	53.10%	19.93%	26.97%	-17.7	2
1949-10-16	@ Frem	W 3-1	1594	1616	26.97%	19.93%	53.10%	+17.7	6
1949-10-16	Osterbros	L 1-4	1552	1516	54.67%	19.89%	25.44%	-25.8	2
1949-10-16	@ Odense	W 4-1	1516	1552	25.44%	19.89%	54.67%	+25.8	2
1949-10-29	KB Copenhagen	W 1-0	1706	1795	38.04%	20.01%	41.95%	+8.8	8
1949-10-29	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1795	1706	41.95%	20.01%	38.04%	-8.8	10
1949-10-30	B 1903	W 4-0	1698	1607	60.54%	19.64%	19.82%	+16.9	12
1949-10-30	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-4	1607	1698	19.82%	19.64%	60.54%	-16.8	4
1949-10-30	Frem	W 3-1	1526	1599	40.49%	20.03%	39.48%	+13.8	5
1949-10-30	@ B.93	L 1-3	1599	1526	39.48%	20.03%	40.49%	-13.8	2
1949-10-30	Odense	W 2-1	1611	1526	59.99%	19.67%	20.34%	+4.5	8
1949-10-30	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1526	1611	20.34%	19.67%	59.99%	-4.5	2
1949-10-30	Esbjerg	W 2-1	1541	1570	46.52%	20.03%	33.45%	+6.9	4
1949-10-30	@ Osterbros	L 1-2	1570	1541	33.45%	20.03%	46.52%	-6.9	3
1949-11-05	Osterbros	W 1-0	1585	1548	54.74%	19.89%	25.38%	+5.8	4
1949-11-05	@ Frem	L 0-1	1548	1585	25.38%	19.89%	54.74%	-5.8	4
1949-11-12	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-7	1540	1715	27.05%	19.73%	53.22%	-26.6	5
1949-11-12	@ B.93	W 7-1	1715	1540	53.22%	19.73%	27.05%	+26.6	10
1949-11-13	Koge BK	L 0-4	1563	1616	43.26%	20.04%	36.70%	-32.5	3
1949-11-13	@ Esbjerg	W 4-0	1616	1563	36.70%	20.04%	43.26%	+32.5	10
1949-11-13	Odense	L 1-2	1590	1521	58.23%	19.76%	22.02%	-11.2	4
1949-11-13	@ B 1903	W 2-1	1521	1590	22.02%	19.76%	58.23%	+11.2	4
1949-11-13	Aarhus GF	W 4-0	1787	1714	58.63%	19.74%	21.63%	+18.2	12
1949-11-13	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1714	1787	21.63%	19.74%	58.63%	-18.2	12
1949-11-19	Osterbros	D 1-1	1579	1542	54.67%	19.89%	25.45%	-1.4	5
1949-11-19	@ B 1903	D 1-1	1542	1579	25.45%	19.89%	54.67%	+1.4	5
1949-11-20	AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1696	1741	44.31%	20.04%	35.65%	-0.4	13
1949-11-20	@ Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1741	1696	35.65%	20.04%	44.31%	+0.4	11
1949-11-20	Odense	D 0-0	1591	1533	57.15%	19.80%	23.05%	-1.8	5
1949-11-20	@ Frem	D 0-0	1533	1591	23.05%	19.80%	57.15%	+1.8	5
1949-11-20	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1805	1531	73.90%	18.07%	8.02%	+3.8	14
1949-11-20	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1531	1805	8.02%	18.07%	73.90%	-3.8	3
1949-11-20	B.93	D 2-2	1648	1514	64.55%	19.37%	16.08%	-1.8	11
1949-11-20	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1514	1648	16.08%	19.37%	64.55%	+1.8	6
1949-11-27	Koge BK	L 1-2	1696	1647	56.14%	19.84%	24.02%	-10.8	13
1949-11-27	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1647	1696	24.02%	19.84%	56.14%	+10.8	13
1949-11-27	B 1903	L 1-2	1527	1577	43.61%	20.04%	36.35%	-8.6	3
1949-11-27	@ Esbjerg	W 2-1	1577	1527	36.35%	20.04%	43.61%	+8.6	7
1949-11-27	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1589	1742	29.67%	19.83%	50.50%	+0.7	6
1949-11-27	@ Frem	D 2-2	1742	1589	50.50%	19.83%	29.67%	-0.7	12
1949-11-27	B.93	D 1-1	1544	1515	53.76%	19.91%	26.33%	-1.3	6
1949-11-27	@ Osterbros	D 1-1	1515	1544	26.33%	19.91%	53.76%	+1.3	7
1949-12-18	KB Copenhagen	W 2-1	1534	1809	17.20%	19.07%	63.73%	+12.2	7
1949-12-18	@ Odense	L 1-2	1809	1534	63.73%	19.07%	17.20%	-12.2	14
1950-03-12	B 1903	W 1-0	1741	1586	66.23%	19.21%	14.56%	+3.6	14
1950-03-12	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-1	1586	1741	14.56%	19.21%	66.23%	-3.6	7
1950-03-18	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1582	1796	22.72%	19.51%	57.77%	-5.3	7
1950-03-18	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1796	1582	57.77%	19.51%	22.72%	+5.3	16
1950-03-19	Osterbros	W 3-0	1685	1542	65.19%	19.31%	15.49%	+10.3	15
1950-03-19	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1542	1685	15.49%	19.31%	65.19%	-10.3	6
1950-03-19	Koge BK	L 1-4	1745	1657	60.16%	19.66%	20.18%	-28.2	14
1950-03-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 4-1	1657	1745	20.18%	19.66%	60.16%	+28.2	15
1950-03-19	B.93	W 2-1	1518	1517	50.51%	19.98%	29.51%	+6.3	5
1950-03-19	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1517	1518	29.51%	19.98%	50.51%	-6.2	7
1950-03-19	Frem	L 1-2	1547	1590	44.57%	20.04%	35.39%	-8.8	7
1950-03-19	@ Odense	W 2-1	1590	1547	35.39%	20.04%	44.57%	+8.8	8
1950-03-25	Frem	W 2-0	1716	1599	63.06%	19.48%	17.45%	+7.9	16
1950-03-25	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1599	1716	17.45%	19.48%	63.06%	-7.9	8
1950-03-25	B 1903	L 0-1	1686	1577	62.23%	19.54%	18.23%	-12.6	15
1950-03-25	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1577	1686	18.23%	19.54%	62.23%	+12.6	9
1950-03-26	KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1695	1802	35.70%	19.98%	44.32%	+0.4	16
1950-03-26	@ Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1802	1695	44.32%	19.98%	35.70%	-0.4	17
1950-03-26	Osterbros	W 1-0	1510	1532	47.47%	20.02%	32.51%	+7.2	9
1950-03-26	@ B.93	L 0-1	1532	1510	32.51%	20.02%	47.47%	-7.2	6
1950-03-26	Esbjerg	W 5-1	1538	1525	51.92%	19.96%	28.13%	+19.0	9
1950-03-26	@ Odense	L 1-5	1525	1538	28.13%	19.96%	51.92%	-19.0	5
1950-04-01	Koge BK	L 1-3	1525	1673	30.25%	19.85%	49.91%	-11.0	6
1950-04-01	@ Osterbros	W 3-1	1673	1525	49.91%	19.85%	30.25%	+11.0	17
1950-04-02	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1518	1801	16.44%	18.99%	64.57%	+2.4	10
1950-04-02	@ B.93	D 1-1	1801	1518	64.57%	18.99%	16.44%	-2.4	18
1950-04-02	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1506	1724	22.27%	19.48%	58.25%	+11.1	7
1950-04-02	@ Esbjerg	L 1-2	1724	1506	58.25%	19.48%	22.27%	-11.1	16
1950-04-02	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1591	1696	35.87%	19.98%	44.15%	+8.7	10
1950-04-02	@ Frem	L 1-2	1696	1591	44.15%	19.98%	35.87%	-8.7	16
1950-04-06	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-4	1590	1713	33.39%	19.93%	46.68%	-26.3	9
1950-04-06	@ B 1903	W 4-0	1713	1590	46.68%	19.93%	33.39%	+26.3	18
1950-04-06	Koge BK	W 3-0	1799	1684	62.79%	19.50%	17.71%	+11.7	20
1950-04-06	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1684	1799	17.71%	19.50%	62.79%	-11.6	17
1950-04-07	B.93	W 2-0	1687	1520	67.15%	19.12%	13.73%	+6.4	18
1950-04-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1520	1687	13.73%	19.12%	67.15%	-6.4	10
1950-04-07	Esbjerg	W 2-0	1599	1517	59.69%	19.69%	20.62%	+9.2	12
1950-04-07	@ Frem	L 0-2	1517	1599	20.62%	19.69%	59.69%	-9.2	7
1950-04-07	Odense	D 2-2	1514	1557	44.62%	20.04%	35.34%	-0.3	7
1950-04-07	@ Osterbros	D 2-2	1557	1514	35.34%	20.04%	44.62%	+0.3	10
1950-04-10	B 1903	W 1-0	1557	1563	49.49%	20.00%	30.51%	+6.8	12
1950-04-10	@ Odense	L 0-1	1563	1557	30.51%	20.00%	49.49%	-6.8	9
1950-04-15	B.93	W 3-1	1556	1514	55.44%	19.86%	24.70%	+9.3	11
1950-04-15	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1514	1556	24.70%	19.86%	55.44%	-9.3	10
1950-04-16	Aarhus GF	W 4-0	1739	1693	55.79%	19.85%	24.35%	+20.2	20
1950-04-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-4	1693	1739	24.35%	19.85%	55.79%	-20.2	18
1950-04-16	Osterbros	W 1-0	1508	1514	49.52%	20.00%	30.48%	+6.8	9
1950-04-16	@ Esbjerg	L 0-1	1514	1508	30.48%	20.00%	49.52%	-6.8	7
1950-04-16	Odense	W 4-2	1811	1564	72.41%	18.37%	9.22%	+3.4	22
1950-04-16	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-4	1564	1811	9.22%	18.37%	72.41%	-3.4	12
1950-04-16	Frem	D 1-1	1672	1608	57.76%	19.78%	22.46%	-1.7	18
1950-04-16	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1608	1672	22.46%	19.78%	57.76%	+1.7	13
1950-04-19	B.93	W 3-2	1760	1504	72.90%	18.28%	8.82%	+2.0	22
1950-04-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1504	1760	8.82%	18.28%	72.90%	-2.0	10
1950-04-21	Osterbros	W 1-0	1814	1507	75.54%	17.69%	6.77%	+1.7	24
1950-04-21	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1507	1814	6.77%	17.69%	75.54%	-1.7	7
1950-04-22	B.93	L 1-3	1610	1502	62.15%	19.54%	18.30%	-20.6	13
1950-04-22	@ Frem	W 3-1	1502	1610	18.30%	19.54%	62.15%	+20.6	12
1950-04-23	Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1566	1673	35.56%	19.97%	44.47%	-21.2	11
1950-04-23	@ B 1903	W 3-0	1673	1566	44.47%	19.97%	35.56%	+21.2	20
1950-04-23	Esbjerg	D 2-2	1671	1514	66.31%	19.21%	14.48%	-1.9	19
1950-04-23	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1514	1671	14.48%	19.21%	66.31%	+1.9	10
1950-04-23	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1561	1762	24.10%	19.59%	56.31%	-5.2	12
1950-04-23	@ Odense	W 2-1	1762	1561	56.31%	19.59%	24.10%	+5.2	24
1950-04-25	Frem	D 1-1	1816	1590	71.18%	18.58%	10.23%	-3.1	25
1950-04-25	@ KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1590	1816	10.23%	18.58%	71.18%	+3.1	14
1950-04-30	Odense	W 2-1	1694	1555	64.91%	19.34%	15.75%	+3.6	22
1950-04-30	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1555	1694	15.75%	19.34%	64.91%	-3.6	12
1950-04-30	Koge BK	L 0-2	1523	1669	30.51%	19.86%	49.63%	-12.9	12
1950-04-30	@ B.93	W 2-0	1669	1523	49.63%	19.86%	30.51%	+12.8	21
1950-04-30	Esbjerg	L 0-1	1545	1516	53.75%	19.91%	26.34%	-11.0	11
1950-04-30	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1516	1545	26.34%	19.91%	53.75%	+11.0	12
1950-05-01	Frem	D 1-1	1505	1593	38.32%	20.01%	41.67%	+0.2	8
1950-05-01	@ Osterbros	D 1-1	1593	1505	41.67%	20.01%	38.32%	-0.2	15
1950-05-04	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1505	1767	18.26%	19.17%	62.56%	-7.1	8
1950-05-04	@ Osterbros	W 3-1	1767	1505	62.56%	19.17%	18.26%	+7.1	26
1950-05-05	Odense	W 1-0	1510	1552	44.79%	20.04%	35.17%	+7.7	14
1950-05-05	@ B.93	L 0-1	1552	1510	35.17%	20.04%	44.79%	-7.7	12
1950-05-05	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1527	1813	16.32%	18.98%	64.70%	-3.9	12
1950-05-05	@ Esbjerg	W 1-0	1813	1527	64.70%	18.98%	16.32%	+3.9	27
1950-05-05	B 1903	L 0-2	1592	1534	57.21%	19.80%	22.99%	-22.0	15
1950-05-05	@ Frem	W 2-0	1534	1592	22.99%	19.80%	57.21%	+22.0	13
1950-05-05	Aarhus GF	L 3-4	1682	1698	48.18%	20.01%	31.81%	-8.7	21
1950-05-05	@ Koge BK	W 4-3	1698	1682	31.81%	20.01%	48.18%	+8.7	24
1950-05-08	B 1903	L 0-3	1498	1556	42.60%	20.04%	37.37%	-24.5	8
1950-05-08	@ Osterbros	W 3-0	1556	1498	37.37%	20.04%	42.60%	+24.5	15
1950-05-09	AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1816	1774	55.40%	19.87%	24.73%	-1.6	28
1950-05-09	@ KB Copenhagen	D 0-0	1774	1816	24.73%	19.87%	55.40%	+1.6	27
1950-05-14	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1523	1707	26.05%	19.69%	54.26%	-9.7	12
1950-05-14	@ Esbjerg	W 3-1	1707	1523	54.26%	19.69%	26.05%	+9.7	26
1950-05-14	Koge BK	W 4-0	1544	1673	32.68%	19.92%	47.40%	+35.0	14
1950-05-14	@ Odense	L 0-4	1673	1544	47.40%	19.92%	32.68%	-35.0	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1949-12-18	17.20%	@ Odense	1534	2	KB Copenhagen	1809	1
2	1950-03-25	18.23%	B 1903	1577	1	@ Koge BK	1686	0
3	1950-04-22	18.30%	B.93	1502	3	@ Frem	1610	1
4	1950-03-19	20.18%	Koge BK	1657	4	@ AB Gladsaxe	1745	1
5	1949-11-13	22.02%	Odense	1521	2	@ B 1903	1590	1
6	1950-04-02	22.27%	@ Esbjerg	1506	2	AB Gladsaxe	1724	1
7	1950-05-05	22.99%	B 1903	1534	2	@ Frem	1592	0
8	1949-11-27	24.02%	Koge BK	1647	2	@ Aarhus GF	1696	1
9	1949-10-16	25.44%	Osterbros	1516	4	@ Odense	1552	1
10	1950-04-30	26.34%	Esbjerg	1516	1	@ B 1903	1545	0
11	1949-10-16	26.97%	Koge BK	1594	3	@ Frem	1616	1
12	1949-10-02	29.86%	@ Koge BK	1574	2	AB Gladsaxe	1725	0
13	1950-05-05	31.81%	Aarhus GF	1698	4	@ Koge BK	1682	3
14	1950-05-14	32.68%	@ Odense	1544	4	Koge BK	1673	0
15	1949-08-21	33.07%	Aarhus GF	1622	6	@ Odense	1596	3
16	1950-03-19	35.39%	Frem	1590	2	@ Odense	1547	1
17	1950-04-02	35.87%	@ Frem	1591	2	Aarhus GF	1696	1
18	1949-11-27	36.35%	B 1903	1577	2	@ Esbjerg	1527	1
19	1949-11-13	36.70%	Koge BK	1616	4	@ Esbjerg	1563	0
20	1950-05-08	37.37%	B 1903	1556	3	@ Osterbros	1498	0
21	1949-10-29	38.04%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1706	1	KB Copenhagen	1795	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1950-05-14	35.05	@ Odense	4	1544	32.68%	Koge BK	0	1673	47.40%	19.92%
2	1949-11-13	32.45	Koge BK	4	1616	36.70%	@ Esbjerg	0	1563	43.26%	20.04%
3	1950-03-19	28.24	Koge BK	4	1657	20.18%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1745	60.16%	19.66%
4	1949-11-12	26.58	AB Gladsaxe	7	1715	53.22%	@ B.93	1	1540	27.05%	19.73%
5	1950-04-06	26.28	AB Gladsaxe	4	1713	46.68%	@ B 1903	0	1590	33.39%	19.93%
6	1949-10-16	25.76	Osterbros	4	1516	25.44%	@ Odense	1	1552	54.67%	19.89%
7	1949-09-04	25.32	Aarhus GF	5	1640	40.06%	@ Osterbros	1	1564	39.91%	20.02%
8	1950-05-08	24.53	B 1903	3	1556	37.37%	@ Osterbros	0	1498	42.60%	20.04%
9	1949-08-20	23.43	@ AB Gladsaxe	8	1679	60.61%	Osterbros	1	1587	19.75%	19.64%
10	1950-05-05	21.96	B 1903	2	1534	22.99%	@ Frem	0	1592	57.21%	19.80%
11	1950-04-23	21.18	Aarhus GF	3	1673	44.47%	@ B 1903	0	1566	35.56%	19.97%
12	1950-04-22	20.62	B.93	3	1502	18.30%	@ Frem	1	1610	62.15%	19.54%
13	1950-04-16	20.18	@ AB Gladsaxe	4	1739	55.79%	Aarhus GF	0	1693	24.35%	19.85%
14	1949-10-02	19.46	@ Koge BK	2	1574	29.86%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1725	50.30%	19.84%
15	1950-03-26	19.01	@ Odense	5	1538	51.92%	Esbjerg	1	1525	28.13%	19.96%
16	1949-10-02	18.84	Aarhus GF	6	1671	46.10%	@ B.93	2	1551	33.96%	19.94%
17	1949-11-13	18.20	@ KB Copenhagen	4	1787	58.63%	Aarhus GF	0	1714	21.63%	19.74%
18	1949-09-04	18.02	@ AB Gladsaxe	5	1702	63.64%	Odense	0	1578	16.93%	19.44%
19	1949-08-21	18.00	Aarhus GF	6	1622	33.07%	@ Odense	3	1596	46.90%	20.03%
20	1949-10-16	17.73	Koge BK	3	1594	26.97%	@ Frem	1	1616	53.10%	19.93%
21	1949-10-02	17.38	@ Esbjerg	6	1561	49.25%	Odense	2	1569	30.75%	20.00%
22	1949-10-02	17.05	KB Copenhagen	4	1772	60.45%	@ Osterbros	0	1533	20.21%	19.34%
23	1949-10-30	16.85	@ Aarhus GF	4	1698	60.54%	B 1903	0	1607	19.82%	19.64%
24	1949-09-04	14.34	KB Copenhagen	4	1755	52.91%	@ Koge BK	1	1583	27.35%	19.75%
25	1949-10-30	13.75	@ B.93	3	1526	40.49%	Frem	1	1599	39.48%	20.03%