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1948-49 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KB Copenhagen

27 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1947-48

Relegated

B 1909

9 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Koge BK

4.51 points above expected

19 points · 14.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Frem

5.09 points below expected

17 points · 22.09 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KB Copenhagen Champion 18 12 3 3 27 37 17 +20 25.59 +1.41
2 AB Gladsaxe 18 9 4 5 22 46 32 +14 24.10 -2.10
3 Aarhus GF 18 8 3 7 19 36 31 +5 18.14 +0.86
4 Koge BK 18 8 3 7 19 37 34 +3 14.49 +4.51
5 Odense 18 9 1 8 19 49 51 -2 16.46 +2.54
6 B 1903 18 7 4 7 18 32 29 +3 17.25 +0.75
7 Osterbros 18 7 4 7 18 34 39 -5 15.79 +2.21
8 Frem 18 8 1 9 17 32 35 -3 22.09 -5.09
9 B.93 18 3 6 9 12 20 31 -11 14.56 -2.56
10 B 1909 Relegated 18 3 3 12 9 18 42 -24 11.52 -2.52

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KB Copenhagen 1863 27 25.59 +1.41 71.4% 12 20 23 26 28 31 36
AB Gladsaxe 1765 22 24.10 -2.10 31.2% 11 18 22 24 26 30 35
Frem 1699 17 22.09 -5.09 9.9% 8 16 20 22 24 28 34
Aarhus GF 1681 19 18.14 +0.86 64.7% 4 12 16 18 21 24 32
B 1903 1654 18 17.25 +0.75 63.8% 4 11 15 17 20 23 29
Odense 1644 19 16.46 +2.54 80.0% 3 11 14 16 19 22 30
Koge BK 1633 19 14.49 +4.51 92.1% 1 9 12 14 17 20 27
Osterbros 1630 18 15.79 +2.21 76.8% 4 10 13 16 18 22 30
B.93 1580 12 14.56 -2.56 28.2% 1 9 12 14 17 20 29
B 1909 1487 9 11.52 -2.52 27.7% 1 6 9 11 14 17 25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AG B1 B1 B.9 FRE KC KB ODE OST
AB Gladsaxe —
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.17
0-2-0
2.63
0-0-2
4.25
1-0-1
4.05
1-1-0
4.12
Aarhus GF
0-1-1
1.87
 —
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
3.90
0-2-0
3.42
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
1.54
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.22
B 1903
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.55
 —
1-1-0
3.69
0-1-1
3.31
2-0-0
2.02
1-0-1
1.46
0-1-1
3.32
1-1-0
2.90
0-0-2
3.09
B 1909
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-1
1.74
0-1-1
1.95
 —
2-0-0
2.31
0-1-1
1.25
0-0-2
0.99
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
2.15
B.93
0-0-2
1.49
0-2-0
2.21
1-1-0
2.32
0-0-2
3.32
 —
1-0-1
1.75
0-1-1
1.16
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.50
0-2-0
2.53
Frem
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.51
0-0-2
3.61
1-1-0
4.40
1-0-1
3.88
 —
0-0-2
2.20
2-0-0
3.79
1-0-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.80
KB Copenhagen
0-2-0
3.00
1-0-1
4.10
1-0-1
4.19
2-0-0
4.68
1-1-0
4.50
2-0-0
3.43
 —
1-0-1
4.43
2-0-0
4.25
2-0-0
4.28
Koge BK
2-0-0
1.39
0-0-2
2.24
1-1-0
2.31
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
1.23
 —
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.61
Odense
1-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.72
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
1.82
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
3.13
 —
1-0-1
2.90
Osterbros
0-1-1
1.53
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.54
2-0-0
3.48
0-2-0
3.09
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.37
0-1-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.73
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.57 +3.8
Allowed 0.26 -2.8
Differential 0.93 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.22%3.33%2.22%2.78%0.56%16.67%
12.22%5.56%7.78%8.33%3.89%1.67%29.44%
23.33%7.78%5.56%4.44%1.11%1.11%23.33%
32.22%8.33%4.44%1.11%0.56%0.56%17.22%
42.78%3.89%1.11%0.56%——8.33%
5+0.56%1.67%1.11%0.56%—1.11%5.00%
Total16.67%29.44%23.33%17.22%8.33%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.89 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.21
CV 0.78 0.78 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%———5.56%—16.67%
1—5.56%—16.67%——22.22%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.78 +0.78
SD 2.20 1.48 2.53
CV 0.86 0.83 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.72 +0.28
SD 1.71 1.36 2.49
CV 0.86 0.79 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.61 +0.17
SD 1.26 1.24 1.82
CV 0.71 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%—33.33%
15.56%—16.67%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%11.11%33.33%22.22%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.33 -1.33
SD 0.91 1.28 1.81
CV 0.91 0.55 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%11.11%11.11%—44.44%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%16.67%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.72 -0.61
SD 1.02 1.23 1.50
CV 0.92 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
1——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3—22.22%————22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%27.78%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.94 -0.17
SD 1.35 1.21 2.31
CV 0.76 0.62 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
311.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 0.94 +1.11
SD 1.39 0.80 1.45
CV 0.68 0.85 —
Max 6 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
2—16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%38.89%11.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.89 +0.17
SD 1.43 1.64 2.64
CV 0.70 0.87 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1———11.11%——11.11%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total5.56%16.67%27.78%22.22%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 2.83 -0.11
SD 1.23 1.76 2.35
CV 0.45 0.62 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.17 -0.28
SD 1.28 2.01 2.35
CV 0.68 0.93 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Koge BK 19 14.49 +4.51
2 Odense 19 16.46 +2.54
3 Osterbros 18 15.79 +2.21
4 KB Copenhagen 27 25.59 +1.41
5 Aarhus GF 19 18.14 +0.86

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Frem 17 22.09 -5.09
2 B.93 12 14.56 -2.56
3 B 1909 9 11.52 -2.52
4 AB Gladsaxe 22 24.10 -2.10
5 B 1903 18 17.25 +0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aarhus GF 4 Oct 31 – Dec 5 1 in 57
2 Koge BK 2 Aug 26 – Sep 5 1 in 16
3 KB Copenhagen 5 Apr 10 – May 1 1 in 12
4 AB Gladsaxe 5 Sep 19 – Nov 14 1 in 10
5 Odense 3 Oct 31 – Nov 21 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 5 Apr 10 – Apr 30 1 in 606
2 B 1903 5 Oct 16 – Dec 12 1 in 125
3 AB Gladsaxe 2 May 1 – May 6 1 in 19
4 Koge BK 4 Oct 3 – Nov 14 1 in 12
5 B.93 3 Oct 31 – Nov 28 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Koge BK 4 Nov 28 – Apr 3 1 in 19
2 AB Gladsaxe 9 Sep 19 – Mar 27 1 in 18
3 Osterbros 4 Apr 15 – Apr 26 1 in 16
4 B 1903 5 Mar 20 – Apr 22 1 in 16
5 Aarhus GF 4 Oct 31 – Dec 5 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frem 5 Apr 10 – Apr 30 1 in 43
2 B.93 7 Aug 26 – Nov 28 1 in 25
3 B 1903 5 Oct 16 – Dec 12 1 in 16
4 Koge BK 5 Sep 19 – Nov 14 1 in 9
5 Odense 5 Aug 29 – Oct 17 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
KB Copenhagen54.07%26.83%12.15%4.25%1.68%0.64%0.24%0.11%0.03%—
AB Gladsaxe29.94%35.10%19.11%8.62%3.98%1.88%0.86%0.35%0.14%0.02%
Aarhus GF1.89%6.09%13.59%19.17%17.96%15.05%11.11%7.98%4.72%2.44%
Koge BK0.19%0.87%3.05%6.64%10.38%13.23%15.40%18.33%18.14%13.77%
Odense0.61%2.43%6.81%12.25%14.85%16.34%15.74%13.88%10.94%6.15%
B 19030.99%4.16%9.73%15.68%17.62%15.76%14.22%10.52%7.08%4.24%
Osterbros0.30%1.82%5.09%9.73%13.01%15.47%16.25%15.81%14.11%8.41%
Frem11.82%21.95%27.74%17.16%9.57%5.86%3.29%1.78%0.65%0.18%
B.930.18%0.68%2.47%5.61%8.67%11.40%15.67%19.18%21.42%14.72%
B 19090.01%0.07%0.26%0.89%2.28%4.37%7.22%12.06%22.77%50.07%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
48.89%17.78%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 54.49 Elo pts.
222 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.23 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
KB Copenhagen, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.81 * Some Luck: 2.81 to 4.21 * Lucky: 4.21 to 5.62 * Wild Swing: 5.62 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.18 * Close: 1.18 to 1.77 * Off: 1.77 to 2.36 * Way Off: 2.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.80 points
As Expected
03.519
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.473
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.06%
Koge BK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.88%
Frem
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.16
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.63
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.73
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 100% —
AB Gladsaxe 99.98% 0.02%
Frem 99.82% 0.18%
Aarhus GF 97.56% 2.44%
B 1903 95.76% 4.24%
Odense 93.85% 6.15%
Osterbros 91.59% 8.41%
Koge BK 86.23% 13.77%
B.93 85.28% 14.72%
B 1909 49.93% 50.07%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1948-08-26 Koge BK L 1-4 1606 1566 56.48% 18.62% 24.90% -16.9 0
1948-08-26 @ B.93 W 4-1 1566 1606 24.90% 18.62% 56.48% +16.9 2
1948-08-29 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1542 1834 16.81% 17.47% 65.72% -4.7 0
1948-08-29 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1834 1542 65.72% 17.47% 16.81% +4.7 2
1948-08-29 Aarhus GF W 4-0 1758 1660 62.53% 18.27% 19.20% +10.3 2
1948-08-29 @ Frem L 0-4 1660 1758 19.20% 18.27% 62.53% -10.3 0
1948-08-29 Odense W 5-3 1617 1631 49.83% 18.81% 31.36% +6.1 2
1948-08-29 @ Osterbros L 3-5 1631 1617 31.36% 18.81% 49.83% -6.1 0
1948-09-01 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1637 1839 25.21% 18.30% 56.49% +6.9 2
1948-09-01 @ B 1903 L 1-2 1839 1637 56.49% 18.30% 25.21% -6.9 2
1948-09-05 B.93 D 1-1 1650 1589 58.79% 18.51% 22.69% -1.1 1
1948-09-05 @ Aarhus GF D 1-1 1589 1650 22.69% 18.51% 58.79% +1.1 1
1948-09-05 B 1909 W 4-0 1644 1538 63.35% 18.20% 18.45% +9.9 4
1948-09-05 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1538 1644 18.45% 18.20% 63.35% -9.9 0
1948-09-05 Osterbros W 2-1 1832 1623 71.59% 17.17% 11.24% +1.6 4
1948-09-05 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1623 1832 11.24% 17.17% 71.59% -1.6 2
1948-09-05 AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1583 1787 25.00% 18.29% 56.71% +11.9 4
1948-09-05 @ Koge BK L 1-3 1787 1583 56.71% 18.29% 25.00% -11.9 0
1948-09-05 Frem L 1-3 1625 1768 32.27% 18.65% 49.07% -7.4 0
1948-09-05 @ Odense W 3-1 1768 1625 49.07% 18.65% 32.27% +7.4 4
1948-09-18 Frem L 1-3 1621 1775 30.86% 18.60% 50.54% -7.1 2
1948-09-18 @ Osterbros W 3-1 1775 1621 50.54% 18.60% 30.86% +7.1 6
1948-09-19 Aarhus GF W 5-1 1775 1649 65.16% 18.04% 16.81% +7.6 2
1948-09-19 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-5 1649 1775 16.81% 18.04% 65.16% -7.6 1
1948-09-19 B 1909 D 0-0 1594 1528 59.42% 18.48% 22.10% -1.3 5
1948-09-19 @ Koge BK D 0-0 1528 1594 22.10% 18.48% 59.42% +1.3 1
1948-09-19 B 1903 D 3-3 1618 1653 47.01% 18.84% 34.15% -0.2 1
1948-09-19 @ Odense D 3-3 1653 1618 34.15% 18.84% 47.01% +0.2 5
1948-10-02 AB Gladsaxe L 1-4 1590 1782 26.31% 18.37% 55.32% -8.7 1
1948-10-02 @ B.93 W 4-1 1782 1590 55.32% 18.37% 26.31% +8.7 4
1948-10-03 Odense W 3-1 1641 1618 54.56% 18.70% 26.75% +6.3 3
1948-10-03 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1618 1641 26.75% 18.70% 54.56% -6.3 1
1948-10-03 Osterbros L 0-3 1529 1614 40.06% 18.83% 41.11% -14.8 1
1948-10-03 @ B 1909 W 3-0 1614 1529 41.11% 18.83% 40.06% +14.8 4
1948-10-03 B 1903 L 0-2 1782 1654 65.41% 18.01% 16.58% -15.9 6
1948-10-03 @ Frem W 2-0 1654 1782 16.58% 18.01% 65.41% +15.9 7
1948-10-03 Koge BK W 3-0 1833 1593 73.61% 16.77% 9.62% +4.1 6
1948-10-03 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1593 1833 9.62% 16.77% 73.61% -4.0 5
1948-10-16 B 1903 W 2-0 1791 1670 64.76% 18.08% 17.17% +4.9 6
1948-10-16 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-2 1670 1791 17.17% 18.08% 64.76% -4.9 7
1948-10-17 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1514 1648 33.48% 18.69% 47.83% +5.9 3
1948-10-17 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1648 1514 47.83% 18.69% 33.48% -5.9 3
1948-10-17 Osterbros D 1-1 1581 1629 45.35% 18.85% 35.80% -0.3 2
1948-10-17 @ B.93 D 1-1 1629 1581 35.80% 18.85% 45.35% +0.3 5
1948-10-17 Odense W 3-2 1838 1611 72.74% 16.95% 10.31% +1.4 8
1948-10-17 @ KB Copenhagen L 2-3 1611 1838 10.31% 16.95% 72.74% -1.4 1
1948-10-17 Frem L 2-4 1589 1766 28.02% 18.47% 53.52% -5.8 5
1948-10-17 @ Koge BK W 4-2 1766 1589 53.52% 18.47% 28.02% +5.8 8
1948-10-30 B 1903 W 3-1 1629 1665 47.06% 18.84% 34.10% +7.7 7
1948-10-30 @ Osterbros L 1-3 1665 1629 34.10% 18.84% 47.06% -7.7 7
1948-10-31 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1642 1839 25.72% 18.33% 55.94% +7.2 5
1948-10-31 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1839 1642 55.94% 18.33% 25.72% -7.2 8
1948-10-31 B 1909 W 4-0 1796 1520 75.66% 16.29% 8.06% +4.4 8
1948-10-31 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1520 1796 8.06% 16.29% 75.66% -4.4 3
1948-10-31 B.93 W 2-0 1772 1581 70.38% 17.37% 12.25% +3.5 10
1948-10-31 @ Frem L 0-2 1581 1772 12.25% 17.37% 70.38% -3.5 2
1948-10-31 Koge BK W 3-2 1610 1583 54.90% 18.68% 26.41% +3.4 3
1948-10-31 @ Odense L 2-3 1583 1610 26.41% 18.68% 54.90% -3.4 5
1948-11-14 Frem W 3-2 1800 1776 54.64% 18.69% 26.66% +3.4 10
1948-11-14 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1776 1800 26.66% 18.69% 54.64% -3.4 10
1948-11-14 Aarhus GF L 1-4 1580 1649 42.41% 18.85% 38.74% -13.1 5
1948-11-14 @ Koge BK W 4-1 1649 1580 38.74% 18.85% 42.41% +13.1 7
1948-11-14 B 1909 W 3-2 1613 1516 62.55% 18.27% 19.18% +2.6 5
1948-11-14 @ Odense L 2-3 1516 1613 19.18% 18.27% 62.55% -2.6 3
1948-11-20 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1832 1804 55.09% 18.68% 26.23% -0.7 9
1948-11-20 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1804 1832 26.23% 18.68% 55.09% +0.6 11
1948-11-21 Osterbros W 5-1 1662 1637 54.69% 18.69% 26.62% +11.4 9
1948-11-21 @ Aarhus GF L 1-5 1637 1662 26.62% 18.69% 54.69% -11.5 7
1948-11-21 Odense L 1-2 1577 1616 46.64% 18.85% 34.51% -5.8 2
1948-11-21 @ B.93 W 2-1 1616 1577 34.51% 18.85% 46.64% +5.8 7
1948-11-21 B 1909 D 2-2 1772 1513 74.74% 16.52% 8.74% -1.6 11
1948-11-21 @ Frem D 2-2 1513 1772 8.74% 16.52% 74.74% +1.6 4
1948-11-28 B.93 W 3-1 1515 1572 44.07% 18.85% 37.08% +8.3 6
1948-11-28 @ B 1909 L 1-3 1572 1515 37.08% 18.85% 44.07% -8.3 2
1948-11-28 Frem W 3-0 1831 1771 58.73% 18.52% 22.76% +9.2 11
1948-11-28 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-3 1771 1831 22.76% 18.52% 58.73% -9.2 11
1948-11-28 B 1903 W 2-1 1567 1657 39.39% 18.82% 41.79% +5.3 7
1948-11-28 @ Koge BK L 1-2 1657 1567 41.79% 18.82% 39.39% -5.3 7
1948-11-28 AB Gladsaxe L 2-8 1626 1804 27.86% 18.46% 53.68% -14.2 7
1948-11-28 @ Osterbros W 8-2 1804 1626 53.68% 18.46% 27.86% +14.2 13
1948-12-05 Aarhus GF L 2-3 1652 1673 48.87% 18.83% 32.30% -5.7 7
1948-12-05 @ B 1903 W 3-2 1673 1652 32.30% 18.83% 48.87% +5.7 11
1948-12-05 AB Gladsaxe L 5-6 1622 1818 25.78% 18.34% 55.88% -3.2 7
1948-12-05 @ Odense W 6-5 1818 1622 55.88% 18.34% 25.78% +3.2 15
1948-12-05 Koge BK D 2-2 1611 1572 56.39% 18.63% 24.98% -0.7 8
1948-12-05 @ Osterbros D 2-2 1572 1611 24.98% 18.63% 56.39% +0.7 8
1948-12-12 B.93 L 1-4 1646 1563 61.05% 18.38% 20.57% -18.2 7
1948-12-12 @ B 1903 W 4-1 1563 1646 20.57% 18.38% 61.05% +18.2 4
1949-03-20 B 1903 L 1-2 1679 1628 57.74% 18.57% 23.70% -7.0 11
1949-03-20 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1628 1679 23.70% 18.57% 57.74% +7.0 9
1949-03-20 Frem L 1-2 1523 1762 21.44% 18.00% 60.56% -3.0 6
1949-03-20 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1762 1523 60.56% 18.00% 21.44% +3.0 13
1949-03-20 KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1582 1840 19.58% 17.81% 62.60% -2.9 4
1949-03-20 @ B.93 W 1-0 1840 1582 62.60% 17.81% 19.58% +2.9 13
1949-03-20 Osterbros W 4-2 1618 1611 52.62% 18.75% 28.62% +6.0 9
1949-03-20 @ Odense L 2-4 1611 1618 28.62% 18.75% 52.62% -6.0 8
1949-03-27 Frem W 2-0 1672 1765 39.04% 18.82% 42.14% +10.6 13
1949-03-27 @ Aarhus GF L 0-2 1765 1672 42.14% 18.82% 39.04% -10.6 13
1949-03-27 KB Copenhagen D 1-1 1822 1843 48.89% 18.83% 32.28% -0.5 16
1949-03-27 @ AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1843 1822 32.28% 18.83% 48.89% +0.5 14
1949-03-27 Koge BK L 1-4 1520 1573 44.65% 18.85% 36.49% -13.7 6
1949-03-27 @ B 1909 W 4-1 1573 1520 36.49% 18.85% 44.65% +13.7 10
1949-03-27 B 1903 D 0-0 1579 1635 44.20% 18.85% 36.95% -0.2 5
1949-03-27 @ B.93 D 0-0 1635 1579 36.95% 18.85% 44.20% +0.2 10
1949-04-03 AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1754 1821 42.65% 18.85% 38.50% +8.5 15
1949-04-03 @ Frem L 1-3 1821 1754 38.50% 18.85% 42.65% -8.5 16
1949-04-03 KB Copenhagen W 2-1 1586 1844 19.72% 17.83% 62.45% +7.5 12
1949-04-03 @ Koge BK L 1-2 1844 1586 62.45% 17.83% 19.72% -7.6 14
1949-04-03 B.93 W 3-2 1624 1578 57.15% 18.59% 24.26% +3.2 11
1949-04-03 @ Odense L 2-3 1578 1624 24.26% 18.59% 57.15% -3.2 5
1949-04-03 Aarhus GF W 3-2 1605 1683 41.14% 18.84% 40.02% +4.8 10
1949-04-03 @ Osterbros L 2-3 1683 1605 40.02% 18.84% 41.14% -4.8 13
1949-04-10 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1678 1813 33.29% 18.69% 48.02% +0.5 14
1949-04-10 @ Aarhus GF D 0-0 1813 1678 48.02% 18.69% 33.29% -0.5 17
1949-04-10 B 1903 D 2-2 1506 1635 34.09% 18.71% 47.20% +0.3 7
1949-04-10 @ B 1909 D 2-2 1635 1506 47.20% 18.71% 34.09% -0.3 11
1949-04-10 Odense L 1-4 1763 1628 65.95% 17.95% 16.09% -19.6 15
1949-04-10 @ Frem W 4-1 1628 1763 16.09% 17.95% 65.95% +19.6 13
1949-04-10 B.93 L 1-2 1594 1575 53.97% 18.72% 27.31% -6.6 12
1949-04-10 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1575 1594 27.31% 18.72% 53.97% +6.6 7
1949-04-10 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1610 1836 22.65% 18.11% 59.24% -5.4 10
1949-04-10 @ Osterbros W 3-1 1836 1610 59.24% 18.11% 22.65% +5.4 16
1949-04-14 Odense W 4-3 1635 1647 50.07% 18.81% 31.12% +3.8 13
1949-04-14 @ B 1903 L 3-4 1647 1635 31.12% 18.81% 50.07% -3.8 13
1949-04-15 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1582 1678 38.50% 18.81% 42.69% +0.1 8
1949-04-15 @ B.93 D 2-2 1678 1582 42.69% 18.81% 38.50% -0.1 15
1949-04-15 KB Copenhagen L 1-3 1743 1842 38.20% 18.80% 43.00% -8.5 15
1949-04-15 @ Frem W 3-1 1842 1743 43.00% 18.80% 38.20% +8.5 18
1949-04-15 B 1909 W 2-1 1604 1507 62.55% 18.27% 19.18% +2.7 12
1949-04-15 @ Osterbros L 1-2 1507 1604 19.18% 18.27% 62.55% -2.7 7
1949-04-18 Koge BK W 6-1 1678 1587 61.88% 18.32% 19.80% +10.8 17
1949-04-18 @ Aarhus GF L 1-6 1587 1678 19.80% 18.32% 61.88% -10.8 12
1949-04-18 AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1504 1812 15.54% 17.28% 67.18% -3.8 7
1949-04-18 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1812 1504 67.18% 17.28% 15.54% +3.8 19
1949-04-18 B.93 D 1-1 1607 1582 54.72% 18.69% 26.59% -0.8 13
1949-04-18 @ Osterbros D 1-1 1582 1607 26.59% 18.69% 54.72% +0.8 9
1949-04-21 Osterbros D 0-0 1816 1606 71.67% 17.15% 11.18% -2.2 20
1949-04-21 @ AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1606 1816 11.18% 17.15% 71.67% +2.2 14
1949-04-22 Frem W 3-0 1639 1734 38.58% 18.81% 42.61% +15.6 15
1949-04-22 @ B 1903 L 0-3 1734 1639 42.61% 18.81% 38.58% -15.6 15
1949-04-24 Koge BK L 0-4 1814 1577 73.42% 16.81% 9.77% -33.7 20
1949-04-24 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1577 1814 9.77% 16.81% 73.42% +33.7 14
1949-04-24 B 1909 L 0-1 1583 1500 61.07% 18.37% 20.55% -7.9 9
1949-04-24 @ B.93 W 1-0 1500 1583 20.55% 18.37% 61.07% +7.9 9
1949-04-24 KB Copenhagen L 2-6 1643 1850 24.71% 18.27% 57.02% -9.0 13
1949-04-24 @ Odense W 6-2 1850 1643 57.02% 18.27% 24.71% +9.1 20
1949-04-26 Osterbros L 1-4 1719 1608 63.78% 18.16% 18.05% -19.0 15
1949-04-26 @ Frem W 4-1 1608 1719 18.05% 18.16% 63.78% +19.0 16
1949-04-27 B.93 W 3-1 1780 1575 71.35% 17.21% 11.44% +2.9 22
1949-04-27 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1575 1780 11.44% 17.21% 71.35% -2.9 9
1949-04-28 B 1903 W 2-1 1859 1654 71.33% 17.21% 11.46% +1.7 22
1949-04-28 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1654 1859 11.46% 17.21% 71.33% -1.7 15
1949-04-30 Frem W 2-1 1572 1700 34.21% 18.71% 47.08% +5.8 11
1949-04-30 @ B.93 L 1-2 1700 1572 47.08% 18.71% 34.21% -5.8 15
1949-04-30 Osterbros W 2-1 1610 1627 49.50% 18.82% 31.68% +4.2 16
1949-04-30 @ Koge BK L 1-2 1627 1610 31.68% 18.82% 49.50% -4.2 16
1949-05-01 Odense L 2-3 1783 1634 67.11% 17.82% 15.07% -7.7 22
1949-05-01 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-2 1634 1783 15.07% 17.82% 67.11% +7.7 15
1949-05-01 B 1909 W 2-1 1861 1508 79.41% 15.13% 5.46% +0.8 24
1949-05-01 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1508 1861 5.46% 15.13% 79.41% -0.8 9
1949-05-03 Koge BK D 1-1 1652 1615 56.23% 18.63% 25.13% -0.9 16
1949-05-03 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1615 1652 25.13% 18.63% 56.23% +0.9 17
1949-05-04 B.93 D 0-0 1861 1578 76.08% 16.18% 7.74% -2.5 25
1949-05-04 @ KB Copenhagen D 0-0 1578 1861 7.74% 16.18% 76.08% +2.5 12
1949-05-06 AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1652 1775 34.76% 18.73% 46.51% +10.0 18
1949-05-06 @ B 1903 L 1-3 1775 1652 46.51% 18.73% 34.76% -10.0 22
1949-05-08 Odense L 0-4 1507 1642 33.28% 18.69% 48.03% -16.6 9
1949-05-08 @ B 1909 W 4-0 1642 1507 48.03% 18.69% 33.28% +16.6 17
1949-05-08 Koge BK W 3-1 1694 1615 60.65% 18.40% 20.95% +5.1 17
1949-05-08 @ Frem L 1-3 1615 1694 20.95% 18.40% 60.65% -5.1 17
1949-05-08 Aarhus GF W 2-0 1859 1689 68.80% 17.61% 13.59% +3.9 27
1949-05-08 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1689 1859 13.59% 17.61% 68.80% -3.9 17
1949-05-10 Osterbros L 0-1 1662 1623 56.30% 18.63% 25.07% -7.3 18
1949-05-10 @ B 1903 W 1-0 1623 1662 25.07% 18.63% 56.30% +7.3 18
1949-05-13 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1659 1685 48.24% 18.83% 32.93% +7.5 19
1949-05-13 @ Odense L 1-3 1685 1659 32.93% 18.83% 48.24% -7.5 17
1949-05-15 B 1909 W 3-1 1678 1491 70.07% 17.42% 12.51% +3.1 19
1949-05-15 @ Aarhus GF L 1-3 1491 1678 12.51% 17.42% 70.07% -3.1 9
1949-05-15 Odense W 5-0 1610 1666 44.26% 18.85% 36.89% +22.3 19
1949-05-15 @ Koge BK L 0-5 1666 1610 36.89% 18.85% 44.26% -22.3 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1949-04-24 9.77% Koge BK 1577 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1814 0
2 1949-05-01 15.07% Odense 1634 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1783 2
3 1949-04-10 16.09% Odense 1628 4 @ Frem 1763 1
4 1948-10-03 16.58% B 1903 1654 2 @ Frem 1782 0
5 1949-04-26 18.05% Osterbros 1608 4 @ Frem 1719 1
6 1949-04-03 19.72% @ Koge BK 1586 2 KB Copenhagen 1844 1
7 1949-04-24 20.55% B 1909 1500 1 @ B.93 1583 0
8 1948-12-12 20.57% B.93 1563 4 @ B 1903 1646 1
9 1949-03-20 23.70% B 1903 1628 2 @ Aarhus GF 1679 1
10 1948-08-26 24.90% Koge BK 1566 4 @ B.93 1606 1
11 1948-09-05 25.00% @ Koge BK 1583 3 AB Gladsaxe 1787 1
12 1949-05-10 25.07% Osterbros 1623 1 @ B 1903 1662 0
13 1948-09-01 25.21% @ B 1903 1637 2 KB Copenhagen 1839 1
14 1948-10-31 25.72% @ Aarhus GF 1642 1 KB Copenhagen 1839 0
15 1949-04-10 27.31% B.93 1575 2 @ Koge BK 1594 1
16 1948-12-05 32.30% Aarhus GF 1673 3 @ B 1903 1652 2
17 1948-10-17 33.48% @ B 1909 1514 2 Aarhus GF 1648 1
18 1949-04-30 34.21% @ B.93 1572 2 Frem 1700 1
19 1948-11-21 34.51% Odense 1616 2 @ B.93 1577 1
20 1949-05-06 34.76% @ B 1903 1652 3 AB Gladsaxe 1775 1
21 1949-03-27 36.49% Koge BK 1573 4 @ B 1909 1520 1
22 1949-04-22 38.58% @ B 1903 1639 3 Frem 1734 0
23 1948-11-14 38.74% Aarhus GF 1649 4 @ Koge BK 1580 1
24 1949-03-27 39.04% @ Aarhus GF 1672 2 Frem 1765 0
25 1948-11-28 39.39% @ Koge BK 1567 2 B 1903 1657 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1949-04-24 33.71 Koge BK 4 1577 9.77% @ AB Gladsaxe 0 1814 73.42% 16.81%
2 1949-05-15 22.29 @ Koge BK 5 1610 44.26% Odense 0 1666 36.89% 18.85%
3 1949-04-10 19.60 Odense 4 1628 16.09% @ Frem 1 1763 65.95% 17.95%
4 1949-04-26 18.96 Osterbros 4 1608 18.05% @ Frem 1 1719 63.78% 18.16%
5 1948-12-12 18.17 B.93 4 1563 20.57% @ B 1903 1 1646 61.05% 18.38%
6 1948-08-26 16.87 Koge BK 4 1566 24.90% @ B.93 1 1606 56.48% 18.62%
7 1949-05-08 16.58 Odense 4 1642 48.03% @ B 1909 0 1507 33.28% 18.69%
8 1948-10-03 15.88 B 1903 2 1654 16.58% @ Frem 0 1782 65.41% 18.01%
9 1949-04-22 15.57 @ B 1903 3 1639 38.58% Frem 0 1734 42.61% 18.81%
10 1948-10-03 14.80 Osterbros 3 1614 41.11% @ B 1909 0 1529 40.06% 18.83%
11 1948-11-28 14.23 AB Gladsaxe 8 1804 53.68% @ Osterbros 2 1626 27.86% 18.46%
12 1949-03-27 13.66 Koge BK 4 1573 36.49% @ B 1909 1 1520 44.65% 18.85%
13 1948-11-14 13.08 Aarhus GF 4 1649 38.74% @ Koge BK 1 1580 42.41% 18.85%
14 1948-09-05 11.94 @ Koge BK 3 1583 25.00% AB Gladsaxe 1 1787 56.71% 18.29%
15 1948-11-21 11.45 @ Aarhus GF 5 1662 54.69% Osterbros 1 1637 26.62% 18.69%
16 1949-04-18 10.78 @ Aarhus GF 6 1678 61.88% Koge BK 1 1587 19.80% 18.32%
17 1949-03-27 10.62 @ Aarhus GF 2 1672 39.04% Frem 0 1765 42.14% 18.82%
18 1948-08-29 10.27 @ Frem 4 1758 62.53% Aarhus GF 0 1660 19.20% 18.27%
19 1949-05-06 9.99 @ B 1903 3 1652 34.76% AB Gladsaxe 1 1775 46.51% 18.73%
20 1948-09-05 9.90 @ B 1903 4 1644 63.35% B 1909 0 1538 18.45% 18.20%
21 1948-11-28 9.17 @ KB Copenhagen 3 1831 58.73% Frem 0 1771 22.76% 18.52%
22 1949-04-24 9.06 KB Copenhagen 6 1850 57.02% @ Odense 2 1643 24.71% 18.27%
23 1948-10-02 8.74 AB Gladsaxe 4 1782 55.32% @ B.93 1 1590 26.31% 18.37%
24 1949-04-03 8.55 @ Frem 3 1754 42.65% AB Gladsaxe 1 1821 38.50% 18.85%
25 1949-04-15 8.49 KB Copenhagen 3 1842 43.00% @ Frem 1 1743 38.20% 18.80%