1947-48 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

KB Copenhagen

33 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Fremad Amager

5 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Frem

7.53 points above expected

29 points · 21.47 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fremad Amager

6.55 points below expected

5 points · 11.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	KB Copenhagen Champion	18	16	1	1	33	48	13	+35	26.01	+6.99
2	Frem	18	14	1	3	29	59	30	+29	21.47	+7.53
3	AB Gladsaxe	18	12	2	4	26	67	37	+30	24.17	+1.83
4	Aarhus GF	18	8	4	6	20	38	38	0	18.47	+1.53
5	B 1903	18	6	4	8	16	34	38	-4	16.10	-0.10
6	Koge BK	18	5	4	9	14	39	59	-20	14.14	-0.14
7	Osterbros	18	6	1	11	13	36	45	-9	16.62	-3.62
8	Odense	18	4	4	10	12	38	49	-11	16.91	-4.91
9	B.93	18	4	4	10	12	27	41	-14	14.57	-2.57
10	Fremad Amager Relegated	18	1	3	14	5	19	55	-36	11.55	-6.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KB Copenhagen	1899	33	26.01	+6.99	99.4%	11	21	24	26	28	31	36
AB Gladsaxe	1818	26	24.17	+1.83	75.0%	11	19	22	24	26	30	34
Frem	1777	29	21.47	+7.53	99.1%	9	16	19	22	24	27	33
Aarhus GF	1618	20	18.47	+1.53	71.0%	5	13	16	18	21	24	31
B 1903	1577	16	16.10	-0.10	54.0%	3	10	14	16	19	22	29
Odense	1565	12	16.91	-4.91	11.3%	4	11	14	17	19	23	30
Osterbros	1542	13	16.62	-3.62	19.6%	4	11	14	17	19	23	29
B.93	1529	12	14.57	-2.57	28.1%	3	9	12	15	17	20	27
Koge BK	1473	14	14.14	-0.14	54.7%	1	8	12	14	17	20	31
Fremad Amager	1363	5	11.55	-6.55	3.4%	0	6	9	11	14	17	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B.9	FRE	FA	KC	KB	ODE	OST
AB Gladsaxe	—	0-1-1 3.97	2-0-0 3.79	2-0-0 4.36	1-0-1 3.35	1-1-0 4.75	0-0-2 2.56	2-0-0 4.63	2-0-0 3.85	2-0-0 3.59
Aarhus GF	1-1-0 1.71	—	0-1-1 3.61	1-0-1 3.42	0-1-1 2.07	1-1-0 4.20	0-0-2 1.72	2-0-0 3.02	1-0-1 3.43	2-0-0 3.14
B 1903	0-0-2 1.89	1-1-0 2.06	—	1-0-1 3.09	0-0-2 1.99	1-1-0 3.68	0-0-2 1.27	0-1-1 3.39	1-1-0 2.67	2-0-0 2.62
B.93	0-0-2 1.32	1-0-1 2.25	1-0-1 2.58	—	0-0-2 1.92	2-0-0 3.62	0-1-1 0.87	0-2-0 2.71	0-1-1 2.42	0-0-2 2.60
Frem	1-0-1 2.32	1-1-0 3.60	2-0-0 3.69	2-0-0 3.75	—	2-0-0 4.11	1-0-1 1.87	2-0-0 4.09	1-0-1 3.42	2-0-0 3.88
Fremad Amager	0-1-1 0.93	0-1-1 1.47	0-1-1 2.00	0-0-2 2.05	0-0-2 1.57	—	0-0-2 1.41	0-0-2 2.72	1-0-1 1.77	0-0-2 1.89
KB Copenhagen	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 3.96	2-0-0 4.41	1-1-0 4.81	1-0-1 3.80	2-0-0 4.27	—	2-0-0 4.39	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 4.44
Koge BK	0-0-2 1.05	0-0-2 2.66	1-1-0 2.28	0-2-0 2.97	0-0-2 1.58	2-0-0 2.95	0-0-2 1.29	—	1-1-0 2.41	1-0-1 2.54
Odense	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 2.24	0-1-1 3.00	1-1-0 3.25	1-0-1 2.25	1-0-1 3.91	0-0-2 1.28	0-1-1 3.26	—	0-1-1 2.94
Osterbros	0-0-2 2.08	0-0-2 2.53	0-0-2 3.05	2-0-0 3.07	0-0-2 1.80	2-0-0 3.79	0-0-2 1.23	1-0-1 3.14	1-1-0 2.73	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+5.2
Allowed	0.74	-5.8
Differential	0.95	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.44%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	2.78%	15.00%
1	4.44%	5.56%	4.44%	1.67%	2.78%	3.33%	22.22%
2	4.44%	4.44%	5.56%	5.00%	3.89%	2.22%	25.56%
3	2.22%	1.67%	5.00%	4.44%	1.11%	1.67%	16.11%
4	1.11%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	—	1.11%	10.00%
5+	2.78%	3.33%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	—	11.11%
Total	15.00%	22.22%	25.56%	16.11%	10.00%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	2.25	+0.00
SD	1.74	1.74	2.65
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	10	10	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.72	2.06	+1.67
SD	2.40	1.39	3.01
CV	0.64	0.68	—
Max	10	5	+9
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.11	+0.00
SD	1.28	1.78	2.50
CV	0.61	0.84	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	1	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	2.11	-0.22
SD	1.49	1.37	1.83
CV	0.79	0.65	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	11.11%	38.89%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.28	-0.78
SD	0.99	1.67	2.13
CV	0.66	0.73	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.28	1.67	+1.61
SD	1.99	1.19	2.17
CV	0.61	0.71	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	3.06	-2.00
SD	1.16	1.43	1.88
CV	1.10	0.47	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	55.56%	33.33%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	0.72	+1.94
SD	1.53	1.23	1.70
CV	0.58	1.70	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	1	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%
3	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	—	33.33%	27.78%	5.56%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	3.28	-1.11
SD	1.54	1.74	2.54
CV	0.71	0.53	—
Max	5	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.72	-0.61
SD	1.81	1.90	2.81
CV	0.86	0.70	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.50	-0.50
SD	1.41	2.33	2.96
CV	0.71	0.93	—
Max	5	10	+5
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Frem	29	21.47	+7.53
2	KB Copenhagen	33	26.01	+6.99
3	AB Gladsaxe	26	24.17	+1.83
4	Aarhus GF	20	18.47	+1.53
5	B 1903	16	16.10	-0.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fremad Amager	5	11.55	-6.55
2	Odense	12	16.91	-4.91
3	Osterbros	13	16.62	-3.62
4	B.93	12	14.57	-2.57
5	Koge BK	14	14.14	-0.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	4	Mar 26 – Apr 11	1 in 38
2	KB Copenhagen	6	Aug 17 – Sep 28	1 in 33
3	Frem	7	Nov 23 – Apr 10	1 in 20
4	Osterbros	3	Oct 26 – Nov 30	1 in 10
5	Odense	2	Dec 7 – Mar 21	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fremad Amager	6	Aug 16 – Nov 2	1 in 75
2	Osterbros	5	Aug 19 – Sep 28	1 in 29
3	B.93	4	Mar 21 – Apr 4	1 in 11
4	B 1903	3	Aug 31 – Sep 28	1 in 9
5	AB Gladsaxe	2	May 2 – May 6	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	7	Mar 26 – May 2	1 in 68
2	B 1903	5	Oct 12 – Mar 25	1 in 18
3	AB Gladsaxe	8	Aug 31 – Mar 21	1 in 13
4	KB Copenhagen	11	Nov 16 – May 10	1 in 7
5	Koge BK	4	Aug 16 – Sep 14	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fremad Amager	17	Aug 16 – May 1	1 in 144
2	Aarhus GF	5	Nov 2 – Mar 21	1 in 22
3	B 1903	6	Mar 29 – Apr 28	1 in 21
4	AB Gladsaxe	2	Mar 21 – Mar 26	1 in 14
5	Koge BK	7	Sep 28 – Mar 25	1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
KB Copenhagen	57.77%	26.12%	10.29%	3.58%	1.45%	0.50%	0.14%	0.13%	0.01%	0.01%
Frem	9.45%	20.82%	30.66%	17.55%	9.60%	5.95%	3.35%	1.82%	0.61%	0.19%
AB Gladsaxe	28.58%	37.03%	19.36%	8.00%	4.16%	1.72%	0.74%	0.29%	0.08%	0.04%
Aarhus GF	2.00%	6.52%	14.16%	21.42%	18.71%	13.49%	10.13%	7.16%	4.40%	2.01%
B 1903	0.51%	2.00%	6.19%	12.09%	15.20%	16.55%	15.76%	13.61%	11.24%	6.85%
Koge BK	0.15%	0.54%	2.10%	4.42%	7.84%	11.18%	14.89%	19.27%	22.04%	17.57%
Osterbros	0.64%	3.04%	6.51%	12.94%	15.39%	16.52%	15.69%	13.99%	10.16%	5.12%
Odense	0.77%	3.05%	7.92%	13.17%	16.12%	16.84%	15.40%	12.04%	10.00%	4.69%
B.93	0.12%	0.79%	2.44%	5.62%	9.11%	12.83%	16.47%	19.56%	19.38%	13.68%
Fremad Amager	0.01%	0.09%	0.37%	1.21%	2.42%	4.42%	7.43%	12.13%	22.08%	49.84%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+4.44%

No Edge

44.44%15.56%40.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.

144 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.17 goals

Neutral

-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

58%

KB Copenhagen, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.82 * Some Luck: 2.82 to 4.23 * Lucky: 4.23 to 5.64 * Wild Swing: 5.64 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.34 * Way Off: 2.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.45 points

Lucky

03.539

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.463

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.37%

KB Copenhagen

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.41%

Fremad Amager

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 1

As Expected

00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.26

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

2.08

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

77%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

96%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

48%

Frequent

0%43%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.66

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.25

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalky

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.33

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.23

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.064

Well Within Noise

00.1660.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen	99.99%	0.01%
AB Gladsaxe	99.96%	0.04%
Frem	99.81%	0.19%
Aarhus GF	97.99%	2.01%
Odense	95.31%	4.69%
Osterbros	94.88%	5.12%
B 1903	93.15%	6.85%
B.93	86.32%	13.68%
Koge BK	82.43%	17.57%
Fremad Amager	50.16%	49.84%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1947-08-16	B 1903	L 0-2	1588	1579	46.35%	16.50%	37.16%	-33.7	0
1947-08-16	@ B.93	W 2-0	1579	1588	37.16%	16.50%	46.35%	+33.7	2
1947-08-16	Odense	W 4-3	1567	1630	36.25%	16.49%	47.27%	+15.9	2
1947-08-16	@ Frem	L 3-4	1630	1567	47.27%	16.49%	36.25%	-15.9	0
1947-08-16	Fremad Amager	W 1-0	1593	1611	42.48%	16.50%	41.02%	+16.1	2
1947-08-16	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1611	1593	41.02%	16.50%	42.48%	-16.1	0
1947-08-17	Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1675	1634	50.63%	16.48%	32.89%	+21.8	2
1947-08-17	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1634	1675	32.89%	16.48%	50.63%	-21.8	0
1947-08-19	Osterbros	W 3-2	1666	1617	51.67%	16.47%	31.85%	+11.6	2
1947-08-19	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1617	1666	31.85%	16.47%	51.67%	-11.6	0
1947-08-20	KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1595	1697	31.05%	16.46%	52.49%	-23.9	0
1947-08-20	@ Fremad Amager	W 2-0	1697	1595	52.49%	16.46%	31.05%	+24.0	4
1947-08-21	Frem	L 1-2	1554	1583	40.93%	16.50%	42.58%	-15.2	0
1947-08-21	@ B.93	W 2-1	1583	1554	42.58%	16.50%	40.93%	+15.1	4
1947-08-24	Koge BK	L 3-5	1614	1609	45.65%	16.50%	37.86%	-24.3	0
1947-08-24	@ Odense	W 5-3	1609	1614	37.86%	16.50%	45.65%	+24.3	4
1947-08-27	KB Copenhagen	L 1-5	1678	1721	38.85%	16.49%	44.65%	-45.9	2
1947-08-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 5-1	1721	1678	44.65%	16.49%	38.85%	+45.8	6
1947-08-28	B 1903	L 1-2	1605	1612	44.05%	16.50%	39.45%	-16.1	0
1947-08-28	@ Osterbros	W 2-1	1612	1605	39.45%	16.50%	44.05%	+16.1	4
1947-08-30	Fremad Amager	W 3-2	1598	1571	48.75%	16.49%	34.76%	+12.5	6
1947-08-30	@ Frem	L 2-3	1571	1598	34.76%	16.49%	48.75%	-12.5	0
1947-08-31	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1628	1632	44.58%	16.50%	38.92%	-39.9	4
1947-08-31	@ B 1903	W 4-1	1632	1628	38.92%	16.50%	44.58%	+39.9	4
1947-08-31	Osterbros	W 1-0	1767	1589	65.73%	16.28%	17.99%	+7.8	8
1947-08-31	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1589	1767	17.99%	16.28%	65.73%	-7.8	0
1947-08-31	B.93	D 2-2	1634	1539	57.25%	16.43%	26.32%	-2.0	5
1947-08-31	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1539	1634	26.32%	16.43%	57.25%	+2.1	1
1947-09-14	Aarhus GF	W 3-2	1541	1613	35.03%	16.48%	48.49%	+16.6	3
1947-09-14	@ B.93	L 2-3	1613	1541	48.49%	16.48%	35.03%	-16.6	0
1947-09-14	B 1903	W 3-0	1775	1589	66.46%	16.26%	17.28%	+20.6	10
1947-09-14	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1589	1775	17.28%	16.26%	66.46%	-20.6	4
1947-09-14	Osterbros	W 4-2	1632	1581	51.85%	16.47%	31.68%	+18.9	7
1947-09-14	@ Koge BK	L 2-4	1581	1632	31.68%	16.47%	51.85%	-18.9	0
1947-09-14	Fremad Amager	W 5-1	1589	1559	49.24%	16.49%	34.27%	+41.2	2
1947-09-14	@ Odense	L 1-5	1559	1589	34.27%	16.49%	49.24%	-41.2	0
1947-09-28	Osterbros	W 3-2	1596	1562	49.62%	16.48%	33.89%	+12.2	2
1947-09-28	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1562	1596	33.89%	16.48%	49.62%	-12.2	0
1947-09-28	B.93	W 2-1	1672	1558	59.40%	16.40%	24.20%	+9.6	6
1947-09-28	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1558	1672	24.20%	16.40%	59.40%	-9.6	3
1947-09-28	Frem	L 0-1	1568	1611	38.94%	16.49%	44.57%	-15.4	4
1947-09-28	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1611	1568	44.57%	16.49%	38.94%	+15.4	8
1947-09-28	KB Copenhagen	L 2-6	1651	1795	25.91%	16.40%	57.69%	-27.4	7
1947-09-28	@ Koge BK	W 6-2	1795	1651	57.69%	16.40%	25.91%	+27.4	12
1947-10-12	Frem	L 1-4	1608	1626	42.47%	16.50%	41.03%	-38.3	2
1947-10-12	@ Aarhus GF	W 4-1	1626	1608	41.03%	16.50%	42.47%	+38.3	10
1947-10-12	Odense	W 5-0	1681	1631	51.85%	16.47%	31.67%	+57.0	8
1947-10-12	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-5	1631	1681	31.67%	16.47%	51.85%	-57.0	2
1947-10-12	Fremad Amager	W 2-0	1552	1518	49.80%	16.48%	33.71%	+25.7	6
1947-10-12	@ B 1903	L 0-2	1518	1552	33.71%	16.48%	49.80%	-25.7	0
1947-10-26	Koge BK	W 5-0	1570	1623	37.48%	16.49%	46.03%	+78.3	4
1947-10-26	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-5	1623	1570	46.03%	16.49%	37.48%	-78.3	7
1947-10-26	Osterbros	L 2-4	1548	1550	44.77%	16.50%	38.74%	-25.3	3
1947-10-26	@ B.93	W 4-2	1550	1548	38.74%	16.50%	44.77%	+25.3	2
1947-10-26	Odense	D 2-2	1578	1574	45.67%	16.50%	37.83%	-0.5	7
1947-10-26	@ B 1903	D 2-2	1574	1578	37.83%	16.50%	45.67%	+0.5	3
1947-11-02	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1648	1738	32.55%	16.47%	50.98%	+1.2	5
1947-11-02	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1738	1648	50.98%	16.47%	32.55%	-1.2	9
1947-11-02	Osterbros	L 1-2	1492	1575	33.41%	16.47%	50.12%	-12.8	0
1947-11-02	@ Fremad Amager	W 2-1	1575	1492	50.12%	16.47%	33.41%	+12.8	4
1947-11-02	Frem	L 3-5	1823	1665	63.94%	16.32%	19.74%	-33.4	12
1947-11-02	@ KB Copenhagen	W 5-3	1665	1823	19.74%	16.32%	63.94%	+33.4	12
1947-11-02	B 1903	D 3-3	1545	1578	40.38%	16.50%	43.13%	+0.1	8
1947-11-02	@ Koge BK	D 3-3	1578	1545	43.13%	16.50%	40.38%	-0.1	8
1947-11-02	B.93	D 1-1	1574	1523	51.96%	16.47%	31.56%	-1.8	4
1947-11-02	@ Odense	D 1-1	1523	1574	31.56%	16.47%	51.96%	+1.8	4
1947-11-16	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1698	1737	39.48%	16.50%	44.03%	-13.9	12
1947-11-16	@ Frem	W 3-2	1737	1698	44.03%	16.50%	39.48%	+13.9	11
1947-11-16	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1479	1649	23.15%	16.36%	60.49%	+3.4	1
1947-11-16	@ Fremad Amager	D 1-1	1649	1479	60.49%	16.36%	23.15%	-3.4	6
1947-11-16	KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1572	1789	18.63%	16.27%	65.11%	-22.1	4
1947-11-16	@ Odense	W 3-0	1789	1572	65.11%	16.27%	18.63%	+22.1	14
1947-11-23	B 1903	D 1-1	1646	1578	54.11%	16.46%	29.43%	-2.2	7
1947-11-23	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1578	1646	29.43%	16.46%	54.11%	+2.2	9
1947-11-23	Fremad Amager	W 6-1	1751	1483	72.48%	16.04%	11.48%	+18.8	13
1947-11-23	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-6	1483	1751	11.48%	16.04%	72.48%	-18.8	1
1947-11-23	Koge BK	W 5-4	1684	1545	62.04%	16.36%	21.60%	+7.9	14
1947-11-23	@ Frem	L 4-5	1545	1684	21.60%	16.36%	62.04%	-7.9	8
1947-11-30	B.93	W 5-0	1812	1525	73.59%	15.98%	10.44%	+20.7	16
1947-11-30	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-5	1525	1812	10.44%	15.98%	73.59%	-20.7	4
1947-11-30	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-5	1537	1770	17.29%	16.23%	66.48%	-15.1	8
1947-11-30	@ Koge BK	W 5-2	1770	1537	66.48%	16.23%	17.29%	+15.1	15
1947-11-30	Odense	W 4-0	1588	1550	50.21%	16.48%	33.31%	+48.3	6
1947-11-30	@ Osterbros	L 0-4	1550	1588	33.31%	16.48%	50.21%	-48.3	4
1947-12-07	B.93	L 0-3	1464	1504	39.33%	16.50%	44.17%	-42.6	1
1947-12-07	@ Fremad Amager	W 3-0	1504	1464	44.17%	16.50%	39.33%	+42.6	6
1947-12-07	Aarhus GF	W 7-1	1502	1644	26.25%	16.41%	57.34%	+93.8	6
1947-12-07	@ Odense	L 1-7	1644	1502	57.34%	16.41%	26.25%	-93.8	7
1947-12-07	Frem	L 2-5	1637	1692	37.20%	16.49%	46.31%	-29.7	6
1947-12-07	@ Osterbros	W 5-2	1692	1637	46.31%	16.49%	37.20%	+29.7	16
1948-03-21	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1550	1832	13.54%	16.09%	70.36%	-5.7	7
1948-03-21	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1832	1550	70.36%	16.09%	13.54%	+5.7	18
1948-03-21	Odense	L 0-2	1546	1596	38.04%	16.49%	45.47%	-28.5	6
1948-03-21	@ B.93	W 2-0	1596	1546	45.47%	16.49%	38.04%	+28.5	8
1948-03-21	AB Gladsaxe	D 3-3	1421	1785	8.93%	15.82%	75.26%	+3.9	2
1948-03-21	@ Fremad Amager	D 3-3	1785	1421	75.26%	15.82%	8.93%	-3.9	16
1948-03-21	Frem	L 0-7	1522	1722	20.24%	16.30%	63.46%	-52.7	8
1948-03-21	@ Koge BK	W 7-0	1722	1522	63.46%	16.30%	20.24%	+52.7	18
1948-03-25	Fremad Amager	W 4-0	1838	1425	79.15%	15.48%	5.37%	+8.8	20
1948-03-25	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1425	1838	5.37%	15.48%	79.15%	-8.8	2
1948-03-25	B 1903	L 2-3	1624	1580	51.09%	16.48%	32.43%	-17.4	8
1948-03-25	@ Odense	W 3-2	1580	1624	32.43%	16.48%	51.09%	+17.4	11
1948-03-25	Koge BK	W 3-2	1607	1469	61.89%	16.36%	21.74%	+8.3	8
1948-03-25	@ Osterbros	L 2-3	1469	1607	21.74%	16.36%	61.89%	-8.3	8
1948-03-26	Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1781	1544	70.37%	16.14%	13.49%	-26.7	16
1948-03-26	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1544	1781	13.49%	16.14%	70.37%	+26.7	9
1948-03-26	B.93	W 6-1	1774	1518	71.71%	16.08%	12.21%	+19.9	20
1948-03-26	@ Frem	L 1-6	1518	1774	12.21%	16.08%	71.71%	-19.9	6
1948-03-28	Koge BK	L 2-4	1416	1461	38.69%	16.49%	44.81%	-22.4	2
1948-03-28	@ Fremad Amager	W 4-2	1461	1416	44.81%	16.49%	38.69%	+22.4	10
1948-03-28	Odense	W 1-0	1847	1607	70.60%	16.13%	13.27%	+5.9	22
1948-03-28	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1607	1847	13.27%	16.13%	70.60%	-5.9	8
1948-03-29	B.93	W 3-2	1571	1498	54.66%	16.45%	28.88%	+10.7	11
1948-03-29	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1498	1571	28.88%	16.45%	54.66%	-10.7	6
1948-03-29	B 1903	W 4-1	1794	1597	67.36%	16.24%	16.40%	+16.6	22
1948-03-29	@ Frem	L 1-4	1597	1794	16.40%	16.24%	67.36%	-16.6	11
1948-03-29	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-10	1615	1754	26.56%	16.41%	57.02%	-70.1	8
1948-03-29	@ Osterbros	W 10-1	1754	1615	57.02%	16.41%	26.56%	+70.1	18
1948-04-03	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1581	1853	14.25%	16.12%	69.62%	-6.3	11
1948-04-03	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1853	1581	69.62%	16.12%	14.25%	+6.3	24
1948-04-04	Frem	L 1-4	1394	1811	6.74%	15.60%	77.66%	-7.1	2
1948-04-04	@ Fremad Amager	W 4-1	1811	1394	77.66%	15.60%	6.74%	+7.1	24
1948-04-04	Aarhus GF	L 2-4	1483	1582	31.50%	16.46%	52.04%	-18.8	10
1948-04-04	@ Koge BK	W 4-2	1582	1483	52.04%	16.46%	31.50%	+18.8	13
1948-04-04	B.93	W 2-1	1545	1487	52.76%	16.47%	30.77%	+11.9	10
1948-04-04	@ Osterbros	L 1-2	1487	1545	30.77%	16.47%	52.76%	-11.9	6
1948-04-10	Osterbros	W 1-0	1818	1557	72.01%	16.06%	11.93%	+5.3	26
1948-04-10	@ Frem	L 0-1	1557	1818	11.93%	16.06%	72.01%	-5.3	10
1948-04-11	Fremad Amager	W 4-1	1600	1387	68.68%	16.20%	15.12%	+15.4	15
1948-04-11	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1387	1600	15.12%	16.20%	68.68%	-15.4	2
1948-04-11	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1476	1859	8.05%	15.74%	76.21%	+6.5	7
1948-04-11	@ B.93	D 1-1	1859	1476	76.21%	15.74%	8.05%	-6.6	25
1948-04-11	Koge BK	L 2-3	1574	1465	58.94%	16.41%	24.66%	-19.9	11
1948-04-11	@ B 1903	W 3-2	1465	1574	24.66%	16.41%	58.94%	+19.9	12
1948-04-11	AB Gladsaxe	L 3-7	1601	1824	18.09%	16.25%	65.66%	-18.1	8
1948-04-11	@ Odense	W 7-3	1824	1601	65.66%	16.25%	18.09%	+18.1	20
1948-04-17	KB Copenhagen	L 0-1	1552	1852	12.34%	16.04%	71.62%	-5.5	10
1948-04-17	@ Osterbros	W 1-0	1852	1552	71.62%	16.04%	12.34%	+5.5	27
1948-04-18	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1823	1616	68.19%	16.21%	15.60%	-4.9	27
1948-04-18	@ Frem	D 1-1	1616	1823	15.60%	16.21%	68.19%	+4.9	16
1948-04-18	B 1903	D 2-2	1372	1554	21.86%	16.34%	61.81%	+2.7	3
1948-04-18	@ Fremad Amager	D 2-2	1554	1372	61.81%	16.34%	21.86%	-2.7	12
1948-04-18	Odense	D 2-2	1485	1583	31.50%	16.46%	52.04%	+1.3	13
1948-04-18	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1583	1485	52.04%	16.46%	31.50%	-1.3	9
1948-04-19	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1482	1842	9.08%	15.83%	75.09%	-6.0	7
1948-04-19	@ B.93	W 4-2	1842	1482	75.09%	15.83%	9.08%	+6.0	22
1948-04-21	Fremad Amager	W 5-0	1546	1374	65.19%	16.30%	18.51%	+35.4	12
1948-04-21	@ Osterbros	L 0-5	1374	1546	18.51%	16.30%	65.19%	-35.4	3
1948-04-23	Koge BK	W 3-0	1848	1486	77.28%	15.70%	7.02%	+8.8	24
1948-04-23	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1486	1848	7.02%	15.70%	77.28%	-8.8	13
1948-04-23	B.93	L 0-2	1552	1476	54.98%	16.45%	28.57%	-39.3	12
1948-04-23	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1476	1552	28.57%	16.45%	54.98%	+39.3	9
1948-04-25	Frem	W 2-0	1582	1818	16.95%	16.22%	66.83%	+47.7	11
1948-04-25	@ Odense	L 0-2	1818	1582	66.83%	16.22%	16.95%	-47.7	27
1948-04-25	Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1581	1621	39.45%	16.50%	44.05%	-14.7	12
1948-04-25	@ Osterbros	W 2-1	1621	1581	44.05%	16.50%	39.45%	+14.7	18
1948-04-27	Koge BK	W 2-0	1858	1477	78.01%	15.62%	6.37%	+5.5	29
1948-04-27	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-2	1477	1858	6.37%	15.62%	78.01%	-5.5	13
1948-04-28	B 1903	W 5-4	1857	1512	76.52%	15.77%	7.71%	+3.0	26
1948-04-28	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 4-5	1512	1857	7.71%	15.77%	76.52%	-3.0	12
1948-05-01	Fremad Amager	W 2-0	1515	1339	65.61%	16.29%	18.10%	+14.8	11
1948-05-01	@ B.93	L 0-2	1339	1515	18.10%	16.29%	65.61%	-14.8	3
1948-05-02	Odense	W 3-1	1635	1629	45.92%	16.50%	37.59%	+24.4	20
1948-05-02	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1629	1635	37.59%	16.50%	45.92%	-24.4	11
1948-05-02	Frem	L 3-4	1860	1771	56.66%	16.43%	26.91%	-18.7	26
1948-05-02	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 4-3	1771	1860	26.91%	16.43%	56.66%	+18.7	29
1948-05-02	Osterbros	W 4-2	1509	1567	36.91%	16.49%	46.60%	+26.2	14
1948-05-02	@ B 1903	L 2-4	1567	1509	46.60%	16.49%	36.91%	-26.2	12
1948-05-06	Aarhus GF	W 5-2	1536	1660	28.28%	16.43%	55.29%	+41.9	16
1948-05-06	@ B 1903	L 2-5	1660	1536	55.29%	16.43%	28.28%	-41.9	20
1948-05-06	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1863	1841	48.07%	16.49%	35.44%	+23.2	31
1948-05-06	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1841	1863	35.44%	16.49%	48.07%	-23.2	26
1948-05-06	Osterbros	D 3-3	1605	1541	53.59%	16.46%	29.95%	-1.3	12
1948-05-06	@ Odense	D 3-3	1541	1605	29.95%	16.46%	53.59%	+1.3	13
1948-05-08	Koge BK	D 3-3	1530	1472	52.88%	16.47%	30.66%	-1.2	12
1948-05-08	@ B.93	D 3-3	1472	1530	30.66%	16.47%	52.88%	+1.2	14
1948-05-09	Odense	W 4-2	1324	1604	13.73%	16.10%	70.16%	+38.8	5
1948-05-09	@ Fremad Amager	L 2-4	1604	1324	70.16%	16.10%	13.73%	-38.8	12
1948-05-10	KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1789	1887	31.63%	16.46%	51.91%	-12.2	29
1948-05-10	@ Frem	W 2-1	1887	1789	51.91%	16.46%	31.63%	+12.2	33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1948-03-26	13.49%	Aarhus GF	1544	1	@ AB Gladsaxe	1781	0
2	1948-05-09	13.73%	@ Fremad Amager	1324	4	Odense	1604	2
3	1948-04-25	16.95%	@ Odense	1582	2	Frem	1818	0
4	1947-11-02	19.74%	Frem	1665	5	@ KB Copenhagen	1823	3
5	1948-04-11	24.66%	Koge BK	1465	3	@ B 1903	1574	2
6	1947-12-07	26.25%	@ Odense	1502	7	Aarhus GF	1644	1
7	1948-05-02	26.91%	Frem	1771	4	@ AB Gladsaxe	1860	3
8	1948-05-06	28.28%	@ B 1903	1536	5	Aarhus GF	1660	2
9	1948-04-23	28.57%	B.93	1476	2	@ B 1903	1552	0
10	1948-03-25	32.43%	B 1903	1580	3	@ Odense	1624	2
11	1947-09-14	35.03%	@ B.93	1541	3	Aarhus GF	1613	2
12	1947-08-16	36.25%	@ Frem	1567	4	Odense	1630	3
13	1948-05-02	36.91%	@ B 1903	1509	4	Osterbros	1567	2
14	1947-08-16	37.16%	B 1903	1579	2	@ B.93	1588	0
15	1947-10-26	37.48%	@ Aarhus GF	1570	5	Koge BK	1623	0
16	1947-08-24	37.86%	Koge BK	1609	5	@ Odense	1614	3
17	1947-10-26	38.74%	Osterbros	1550	4	@ B.93	1548	2
18	1947-08-31	38.92%	AB Gladsaxe	1632	4	@ B 1903	1628	1
19	1947-08-28	39.45%	B 1903	1612	2	@ Osterbros	1605	1
20	1947-10-12	41.03%	Frem	1626	4	@ Aarhus GF	1608	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1947-12-07	93.78	@ Odense	7	1502	26.25%	Aarhus GF	1	1644	57.34%	16.41%
2	1947-10-26	78.29	@ Aarhus GF	5	1570	37.48%	Koge BK	0	1623	46.03%	16.49%
3	1948-03-29	70.11	AB Gladsaxe	10	1754	57.02%	@ Osterbros	1	1615	26.56%	16.41%
4	1947-10-12	56.99	@ AB Gladsaxe	5	1681	51.85%	Odense	0	1631	31.67%	16.47%
5	1948-03-21	52.69	Frem	7	1722	63.46%	@ Koge BK	0	1522	20.24%	16.30%
6	1947-11-30	48.29	@ Osterbros	4	1588	50.21%	Odense	0	1550	33.31%	16.48%
7	1948-04-25	47.67	@ Odense	2	1582	16.95%	Frem	0	1818	66.83%	16.22%
8	1947-08-27	45.86	KB Copenhagen	5	1721	44.65%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1678	38.85%	16.49%
9	1947-12-07	42.56	B.93	3	1504	44.17%	@ Fremad Amager	0	1464	39.33%	16.50%
10	1948-05-06	41.93	@ B 1903	5	1536	28.28%	Aarhus GF	2	1660	55.29%	16.43%
11	1947-09-14	41.23	@ Odense	5	1589	49.24%	Fremad Amager	1	1559	34.27%	16.49%
12	1947-08-31	39.88	AB Gladsaxe	4	1632	38.92%	@ B 1903	1	1628	44.58%	16.50%
13	1948-04-23	39.33	B.93	2	1476	28.57%	@ B 1903	0	1552	54.98%	16.45%
14	1948-05-09	38.84	@ Fremad Amager	4	1324	13.73%	Odense	2	1604	70.16%	16.10%
15	1947-10-12	38.28	Frem	4	1626	41.03%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1608	42.47%	16.50%
16	1948-04-21	35.37	@ Osterbros	5	1546	65.19%	Fremad Amager	0	1374	18.51%	16.30%
17	1947-08-16	33.69	B 1903	2	1579	37.16%	@ B.93	0	1588	46.35%	16.50%
18	1947-11-02	33.36	Frem	5	1665	19.74%	@ KB Copenhagen	3	1823	63.94%	16.32%
19	1947-12-07	29.66	Frem	5	1692	46.31%	@ Osterbros	2	1637	37.20%	16.49%
20	1948-03-21	28.49	Odense	2	1596	45.47%	@ B.93	0	1546	38.04%	16.49%
21	1947-09-28	27.43	KB Copenhagen	6	1795	57.69%	@ Koge BK	2	1651	25.91%	16.40%
22	1948-03-26	26.69	Aarhus GF	1	1544	13.49%	@ AB Gladsaxe	0	1781	70.37%	16.14%
23	1948-05-02	26.22	@ B 1903	4	1509	36.91%	Osterbros	2	1567	46.60%	16.49%
24	1947-10-12	25.71	@ B 1903	2	1552	49.80%	Fremad Amager	0	1518	33.71%	16.48%
25	1947-10-26	25.32	Osterbros	4	1550	38.74%	@ B.93	2	1548	44.77%	16.50%