1946-47 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

AB Gladsaxe

28 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Aalborg

9 pts

Biggest Overachiever

AB Gladsaxe

6.79 points above expected

28 points · 21.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B.93

5.97 points below expected

11 points · 16.97 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe Champion	18	14	0	4	28	56	36	+20	21.21	+6.79
2	KB Copenhagen	18	11	4	3	26	51	30	+21	21.16	+4.84
3	Fremad Amager	18	10	2	6	22	36	30	+6	17.74	+4.26
4	Osterbros	18	9	3	6	21	47	44	+3	20.99	+0.01
5	Aarhus GF	18	8	4	6	20	48	43	+5	16.35	+3.65
6	B 1903	18	7	2	9	16	36	45	-9	16.90	-0.90
7	Frem	18	6	2	10	14	35	40	-5	18.73	-4.73
8	Koge BK	18	5	3	10	13	47	48	-1	17.21	-4.21
9	B.93	18	4	3	11	11	23	35	-12	16.97	-5.97
10	Aalborg Relegated	18	4	1	13	9	24	52	-28	12.74	-3.74

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
KB Copenhagen	1697	26	21.16	+4.84	93.2%	8	15	19	21	24	27	33
AB Gladsaxe	1685	28	21.21	+6.79	97.8%	7	15	19	21	24	27	34
Aarhus GF	1614	20	16.35	+3.65	87.0%	1	10	14	16	19	22	30
Osterbros	1580	21	20.99	+0.01	54.9%	8	15	19	21	23	27	34
Fremad Amager	1568	22	17.74	+4.26	90.2%	3	12	15	18	20	24	31
B.93	1518	11	16.97	-5.97	6.8%	4	11	15	17	19	23	31
Koge BK	1516	13	17.21	-4.21	16.2%	4	11	15	17	20	23	31
B 1903	1505	16	16.90	-0.90	45.5%	2	11	14	17	19	23	34
Frem	1469	14	18.73	-4.73	12.5%	5	13	16	19	21	25	33
Aalborg	1409	9	12.74	-3.74	18.8%	0	7	10	13	15	19	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AAL	AG	B1	B.9	FRE	FA	KC	KB	OST
AB Gladsaxe	—	3-0-0 5.59	1-0-1 3.54	2-0-0 3.08	2-0-0 3.54	2-0-0 3.23	0-0-2 3.45	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-0 1.72
Aalborg	0-0-3 2.99	—	0-0-2 2.00	0-1-1 2.25	0-0-1 0.82	1-0-1 2.05	1-0-1 2.14	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 2.24	1-0-1 1.78
Aarhus GF	1-0-1 2.18	2-0-0 3.73	—	0-0-2 2.74	1-1-0 2.76	1-0-1 2.53	2-0-0 2.35	0-2-0 2.07	1-0-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.15
B 1903	0-0-2 2.64	1-1-0 3.46	2-0-0 2.97	—	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.44	0-0-2 2.33	1-0-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.16
B.93	0-0-2 2.18	1-0-0 2.04	0-1-1 2.95	1-0-1 3.04	—	0-0-2 2.34	0-0-2 2.95	0-0-2 2.51	0-2-0 3.20	2-0-1 3.00
Frem	0-0-2 2.49	1-0-1 3.67	1-0-1 3.19	1-0-1 3.05	2-0-0 3.38	—	0-1-1 3.19	0-1-1 2.01	1-0-1 3.14	0-0-2 2.79
Fremad Amager	2-0-0 2.27	1-0-1 3.58	0-0-2 3.37	1-0-1 3.28	2-0-0 2.77	1-1-0 2.53	—	1-1-0 2.29	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.29
KB Copenhagen	1-0-1 2.81	2-0-0 4.16	0-2-0 3.65	2-0-0 3.39	2-0-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.71	0-1-1 3.43	—	2-0-0 3.10	1-0-1 3.04
Koge BK	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 3.48	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 3.00	0-2-0 2.52	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.74	0-0-2 2.61	—	0-1-1 2.34
Osterbros	0-0-1 1.14	1-0-1 3.94	1-1-0 3.57	1-1-0 3.56	1-0-2 5.58	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 3.43	1-0-1 2.68	1-1-0 3.38	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.66	+4.6
Allowed	0.38	-5.3
Differential	0.87	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.44%	3.33%	1.67%	2.78%	2.78%	15.00%
1	4.44%	3.33%	5.56%	5.00%	3.89%	1.11%	23.33%
2	3.33%	5.56%	2.22%	4.44%	2.22%	2.78%	20.56%
3	1.67%	5.00%	4.44%	5.56%	2.22%	0.56%	19.44%
4	2.78%	3.89%	2.22%	2.22%	2.22%	0.56%	13.89%
5+	2.78%	1.11%	2.78%	0.56%	0.56%	—	7.78%
Total	15.00%	23.33%	20.56%	19.44%	13.89%	7.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.24	2.24	+0.00
SD	1.70	1.70	2.63
CV	0.76	0.76	—
Max	11	11	+11
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.11	2.00	+1.11
SD	1.91	1.57	2.74
CV	0.61	0.79	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	—	33.33%	—	—	44.44%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	44.44%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	2.89	-1.56
SD	0.91	2.40	2.83
CV	0.68	0.83	—
Max	3	11	+1
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	33.33%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	2.39	+0.28
SD	1.46	1.88	2.35
CV	0.55	0.79	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.50	-0.50
SD	1.68	1.98	2.79
CV	0.84	0.79	—
Max	6	7	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.94	-0.67
SD	1.27	1.43	2.11
CV	1.00	0.74	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.22	-0.28
SD	2.04	1.48	2.87
CV	1.05	0.66	—
Max	7	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.67	+0.33
SD	1.61	1.53	2.28
CV	0.80	0.92	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
3	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.83	1.67	+1.17
SD	0.99	1.46	2.15
CV	0.35	0.87	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	1	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	38.89%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	2.67	-0.06
SD	2.40	1.61	3.17
CV	0.92	0.60	—
Max	11	5	+11
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	2.44	+0.17
SD	1.50	1.38	2.20
CV	0.57	0.57	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe	28	21.21	+6.79
2	KB Copenhagen	26	21.16	+4.84
3	Fremad Amager	22	17.74	+4.26
4	Aarhus GF	20	16.35	+3.65
5	Osterbros	21	20.99	+0.01

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B.93	11	16.97	-5.97
2	Frem	14	18.73	-4.73
3	Koge BK	13	17.21	-4.21
4	Aalborg	9	12.74	-3.74
5	B 1903	16	16.90	-0.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	5	May 11 – Jun 1	1 in 61
2	AB Gladsaxe	4	Aug 21 – Oct 13	1 in 40
3	KB Copenhagen	4	Nov 17 – Apr 25	1 in 24
4	Aalborg	2	Apr 13 – Apr 20	1 in 22
5	Fremad Amager	3	Sep 22 – Oct 27	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Frem	7	Apr 17 – May 18	1 in 572
2	B.93	7	Sep 22 – Apr 26	1 in 558
3	Osterbros	3	May 4 – May 18	1 in 24
4	Koge BK	5	Apr 4 – Apr 27	1 in 23
5	B 1903	4	Aug 19 – Sep 1	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	KB Copenhagen	13	Oct 13 – Jun 1	1 in 241
2	Aarhus GF	8	Apr 20 – Jun 1	1 in 240
3	B.93	4	May 4 – May 23	1 in 18
4	B 1903	4	Sep 15 – Oct 27	1 in 13
5	AB Gladsaxe	4	Aug 21 – Oct 13	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B.93	10	Aug 22 – Apr 26	1 in 393
2	Frem	9	Apr 17 – May 25	1 in 158
3	Osterbros	5	Apr 23 – May 18	1 in 27
4	Aarhus GF	6	Aug 18 – Oct 27	1 in 17
5	Aalborg	5	Aug 18 – Oct 20	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
AB Gladsaxe	26.76%	20.07%	15.37%	11.60%	8.60%	6.68%	5.11%	3.17%	1.63%	1.01%
KB Copenhagen	25.99%	20.63%	15.37%	11.80%	9.22%	6.56%	4.88%	2.93%	1.87%	0.75%
Fremad Amager	5.20%	8.39%	10.51%	11.52%	12.62%	12.63%	12.09%	11.79%	9.41%	5.84%
Osterbros	21.14%	18.63%	16.35%	12.39%	10.18%	7.83%	5.39%	4.07%	2.80%	1.22%
Aarhus GF	2.73%	4.85%	6.67%	9.20%	10.45%	12.16%	13.69%	14.79%	15.01%	10.45%
B 1903	3.05%	4.86%	6.85%	8.93%	11.54%	12.63%	13.72%	14.44%	14.76%	9.22%
Frem	7.88%	10.42%	11.71%	13.26%	12.59%	12.22%	10.93%	9.35%	7.39%	4.25%
Koge BK	4.07%	6.76%	8.73%	10.36%	11.14%	12.10%	13.08%	13.30%	12.21%	8.25%
B.93	3.00%	4.88%	7.50%	9.05%	10.68%	12.37%	14.05%	15.04%	14.51%	8.92%
Aalborg	0.18%	0.51%	0.94%	1.89%	2.98%	4.82%	7.06%	11.12%	20.41%	50.09%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+20.00%

Clear Edge

53.33%13.33%33.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge

149 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

070.44400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.68 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.47+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.1

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

27%

AB Gladsaxe, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Photo Finish

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.93 * Some Luck: 2.93 to 4.39 * Lucky: 4.39 to 5.85 * Wild Swing: 5.85 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.7 * Close: 1.7 to 2.54 * Off: 2.54 to 3.39 * Way Off: 3.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.38 points

Some Luck

03.669

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

Pinpoint

02.125

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.83%

AB Gladsaxe

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

6.75%

B.93

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 1

As Expected

00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.51

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

64%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

84%

Strong Edge

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Frequent

0%43%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Very Frequent

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.34

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.43

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.31

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Upset-Prone

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

Shaky Favorites

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.46

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.82

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.105

Well Within Noise

00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen	99.25%	0.75%
AB Gladsaxe	98.99%	1.01%
Osterbros	98.78%	1.22%
Frem	95.75%	4.25%
Fremad Amager	94.16%	5.84%
Koge BK	91.75%	8.25%
B.93	91.08%	8.92%
B 1903	90.78%	9.22%
Aarhus GF	89.55%	10.45%
Aalborg	49.91%	50.09%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1946-08-17	Fremad Amager	L 2-4	1578	1536	61.84%	14.07%	24.09%	-21.6	0
1946-08-17	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-2	1536	1578	24.09%	14.07%	61.84%	+21.6	2
1946-08-18	Aalborg	W 3-0	1584	1528	63.44%	14.05%	22.50%	+16.3	2
1946-08-18	@ B.93	L 0-3	1528	1584	22.50%	14.05%	63.44%	-16.3	0
1946-08-18	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1602	1531	64.86%	14.03%	21.11%	+5.3	2
1946-08-18	@ Osterbros	L 1-2	1531	1602	21.11%	14.03%	64.86%	-5.3	0
1946-08-19	B 1903	W 5-0	1557	1548	58.08%	14.11%	27.81%	+31.8	2
1946-08-19	@ Frem	L 0-5	1548	1557	27.81%	14.11%	58.08%	-31.8	0
1946-08-21	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1556	1557	56.93%	14.11%	28.95%	-19.9	0
1946-08-21	@ KB Copenhagen	W 4-2	1557	1556	28.95%	14.11%	56.93%	+19.9	2
1946-08-22	B.93	W 2-1	1607	1601	57.83%	14.11%	28.07%	+6.8	4
1946-08-22	@ Osterbros	L 1-2	1601	1607	28.07%	14.11%	57.83%	-6.8	2
1946-08-23	Koge BK	W 4-1	1558	1539	59.29%	14.10%	26.61%	+16.0	4
1946-08-23	@ Fremad Amager	L 1-4	1539	1558	26.61%	14.10%	59.29%	-16.0	0
1946-08-25	Frem	L 1-2	1511	1588	46.99%	14.14%	38.87%	-10.8	0
1946-08-25	@ Aalborg	W 2-1	1588	1511	38.87%	14.14%	46.99%	+10.8	4
1946-08-25	B.93	D 3-3	1526	1594	48.21%	14.14%	37.65%	-0.4	1
1946-08-25	@ Aarhus GF	D 3-3	1594	1526	37.65%	14.14%	48.21%	+0.4	3
1946-08-25	Osterbros	W 4-1	1577	1614	52.49%	14.14%	33.38%	+19.6	4
1946-08-25	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1614	1577	33.38%	14.14%	52.49%	-19.6	4
1946-08-25	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1517	1536	54.65%	14.13%	31.23%	-21.4	0
1946-08-25	@ B 1903	W 3-1	1536	1517	31.23%	14.13%	54.65%	+21.4	2
1946-08-28	Koge BK	D 3-3	1594	1523	64.90%	14.03%	21.07%	-1.6	4
1946-08-28	@ B.93	D 3-3	1523	1594	21.07%	14.03%	64.90%	+1.6	1
1946-08-29	Osterbros	L 1-4	1495	1594	43.88%	14.14%	41.98%	-24.8	0
1946-08-29	@ B 1903	W 4-1	1594	1495	41.98%	14.14%	43.88%	+24.8	6
1946-09-01	B 1903	W 4-2	1525	1470	63.19%	14.05%	22.75%	+8.8	3
1946-09-01	@ Koge BK	L 2-4	1470	1525	22.75%	14.05%	63.19%	-8.8	0
1946-09-15	B 1903	L 0-4	1574	1462	68.66%	13.95%	17.38%	-58.7	4
1946-09-15	@ Fremad Amager	W 4-0	1462	1574	17.38%	13.95%	68.66%	+58.7	2
1946-09-15	Koge BK	W 3-1	1558	1533	59.92%	14.09%	25.99%	+11.1	4
1946-09-15	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1533	1558	25.99%	14.09%	59.92%	-11.1	3
1946-09-22	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1501	1597	44.29%	14.14%	41.58%	-9.7	0
1946-09-22	@ Aalborg	W 3-2	1597	1501	41.58%	14.14%	44.29%	+9.7	6
1946-09-22	Fremad Amager	L 0-1	1593	1515	65.53%	14.02%	20.45%	-15.6	4
1946-09-22	@ B.93	W 1-0	1515	1593	20.45%	14.02%	65.53%	+15.7	6
1946-09-22	Aarhus GF	W 7-3	1599	1525	65.17%	14.02%	20.80%	+12.8	6
1946-09-22	@ Frem	L 3-7	1525	1599	20.80%	14.02%	65.17%	-12.8	1
1946-09-22	KB Copenhagen	W 5-2	1619	1569	62.77%	14.06%	23.17%	+12.2	8
1946-09-22	@ Osterbros	L 2-5	1569	1619	23.17%	14.06%	62.77%	-12.2	4
1946-10-06	Aarhus GF	W 6-2	1520	1512	58.02%	14.11%	27.88%	+18.3	4
1946-10-06	@ B 1903	L 2-6	1512	1520	27.88%	14.11%	58.02%	-18.3	1
1946-10-06	Aalborg	W 3-2	1531	1491	61.64%	14.07%	24.28%	+5.7	8
1946-10-06	@ Fremad Amager	L 2-3	1491	1531	24.28%	14.07%	61.64%	-5.7	0
1946-10-13	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1577	1556	59.50%	14.10%	26.41%	-23.2	4
1946-10-13	@ B.93	W 3-1	1556	1577	26.41%	14.10%	59.50%	+23.2	6
1946-10-13	Osterbros	L 1-2	1612	1631	54.70%	14.13%	31.17%	-12.4	6
1946-10-13	@ Frem	W 2-1	1631	1612	31.17%	14.13%	54.70%	+12.4	10
1946-10-13	AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1522	1607	45.99%	14.14%	39.87%	-9.8	3
1946-10-13	@ Koge BK	W 4-3	1607	1522	39.87%	14.14%	45.99%	+9.8	8
1946-10-20	B 1903	D 3-3	1485	1539	50.25%	14.14%	35.61%	-0.5	1
1946-10-20	@ Aalborg	D 3-3	1539	1485	35.61%	14.14%	50.25%	+0.5	5
1946-10-20	Koge BK	L 1-2	1494	1513	54.81%	14.13%	31.06%	-12.4	1
1946-10-20	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1513	1494	31.06%	14.13%	54.81%	+12.4	5
1946-10-27	Osterbros	W 2-1	1485	1644	35.52%	14.10%	50.38%	+11.5	3
1946-10-27	@ Aalborg	L 1-2	1644	1485	50.38%	14.10%	35.52%	-11.5	10
1946-10-27	KB Copenhagen	D 1-1	1482	1580	44.04%	14.14%	41.82%	-0.1	2
1946-10-27	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1580	1482	41.82%	14.14%	44.04%	+0.1	7
1946-10-27	B.93	W 1-0	1539	1554	55.27%	14.12%	30.61%	+7.8	7
1946-10-27	@ B 1903	L 0-1	1554	1539	30.61%	14.12%	55.27%	-7.8	4
1946-10-27	AB Gladsaxe	W 5-1	1536	1616	46.59%	14.14%	39.27%	+29.1	10
1946-10-27	@ Fremad Amager	L 1-5	1616	1536	39.27%	14.14%	46.59%	-29.1	8
1946-10-27	Frem	W 3-1	1525	1600	47.32%	14.14%	38.53%	+15.7	7
1946-10-27	@ Koge BK	L 1-3	1600	1525	38.53%	14.14%	47.32%	-15.7	6
1946-11-03	Osterbros	D 4-4	1541	1632	44.96%	14.14%	40.90%	-0.1	8
1946-11-03	@ Koge BK	D 4-4	1632	1541	40.90%	14.14%	44.96%	+0.1	11
1946-11-10	Fremad Amager	W 3-0	1482	1565	46.04%	14.14%	39.82%	+27.1	4
1946-11-10	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1565	1482	39.82%	14.14%	46.04%	-27.1	10
1946-11-10	B 1903	W 7-4	1587	1547	61.71%	14.07%	24.22%	+11.2	10
1946-11-10	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 4-7	1547	1587	24.22%	14.07%	61.71%	-11.2	7
1946-11-10	B.93	W 3-1	1584	1546	61.45%	14.08%	24.47%	+10.5	8
1946-11-10	@ Frem	L 1-3	1546	1584	24.47%	14.08%	61.45%	-10.5	4
1946-11-10	Aalborg	W 11-0	1541	1496	62.14%	14.07%	23.79%	+58.5	10
1946-11-10	@ Koge BK	L 0-11	1496	1541	23.79%	14.07%	62.14%	-58.5	3
1946-11-17	Aarhus GF	W 3-2	1598	1509	66.66%	14.00%	19.34%	+4.6	12
1946-11-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1509	1598	19.34%	14.00%	66.66%	-4.6	4
1946-11-17	Aalborg	W 5-0	1580	1438	71.08%	13.89%	15.03%	+18.0	9
1946-11-17	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-5	1438	1580	15.03%	13.89%	71.08%	-18.0	3
1946-11-24	Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1420	1504	45.96%	14.14%	39.90%	-10.0	3
1946-11-24	@ Aalborg	W 3-2	1504	1420	39.90%	14.14%	45.96%	+10.0	6
1946-11-24	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1535	1603	48.30%	14.14%	37.55%	-22.1	4
1946-11-24	@ B.93	W 2-0	1603	1535	37.55%	14.14%	48.30%	+22.0	14
1946-11-24	Frem	D 1-1	1538	1594	49.89%	14.14%	35.97%	-0.8	11
1946-11-24	@ Fremad Amager	D 1-1	1594	1538	35.97%	14.14%	49.89%	+0.8	9
1947-04-03	B 1903	D 3-3	1632	1536	67.30%	13.99%	18.72%	-1.8	12
1947-04-03	@ Osterbros	D 3-3	1536	1632	18.72%	13.99%	67.30%	+1.8	8
1947-04-04	Fremad Amager	L 0-1	1625	1538	66.46%	14.00%	19.54%	-15.9	14
1947-04-04	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 1-0	1538	1625	19.54%	14.00%	66.46%	+15.9	13
1947-04-04	Koge BK	W 5-2	1595	1599	56.62%	14.12%	29.27%	+15.1	11
1947-04-04	@ Frem	L 2-5	1599	1595	29.27%	14.12%	56.62%	-15.1	10
1947-04-13	Fremad Amager	W 2-1	1410	1553	37.56%	14.11%	48.33%	+11.0	5
1947-04-13	@ Aalborg	L 1-2	1553	1410	48.33%	14.11%	37.56%	-11.0	13
1947-04-13	B 1903	L 0-2	1514	1537	54.19%	14.13%	31.68%	-24.5	6
1947-04-13	@ Aarhus GF	W 2-0	1537	1514	31.68%	14.13%	54.19%	+24.5	10
1947-04-13	Frem	L 1-4	1513	1610	44.19%	14.14%	41.67%	-25.0	4
1947-04-13	@ B.93	W 4-1	1610	1513	41.67%	14.14%	44.19%	+25.0	13
1947-04-13	Koge BK	W 4-3	1630	1584	62.38%	14.06%	23.56%	+5.4	14
1947-04-13	@ Osterbros	L 3-4	1584	1630	23.56%	14.06%	62.38%	-5.4	10
1947-04-15	KB Copenhagen	L 1-3	1609	1598	58.44%	14.10%	27.46%	-22.8	14
1947-04-15	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1598	1609	27.46%	14.10%	58.44%	+22.8	11
1947-04-17	Frem	W 4-0	1636	1635	57.16%	14.11%	28.72%	+26.5	16
1947-04-17	@ Osterbros	L 0-4	1635	1636	28.72%	14.11%	57.16%	-26.5	13
1947-04-20	Aarhus GF	L 2-5	1542	1490	63.04%	14.06%	22.90%	-30.1	13
1947-04-20	@ Fremad Amager	W 5-2	1490	1542	22.90%	14.06%	63.04%	+30.1	8
1947-04-20	KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1578	1621	51.74%	14.14%	34.12%	-28.8	10
1947-04-20	@ Koge BK	W 4-1	1621	1578	34.12%	14.14%	51.74%	+28.8	13
1947-04-20	Aalborg	L 0-1	1609	1421	74.28%	13.77%	11.95%	-17.8	13
1947-04-20	@ Frem	W 1-0	1421	1609	11.95%	13.77%	74.28%	+17.8	7
1947-04-23	Osterbros	W 5-2	1512	1662	36.71%	14.11%	49.18%	+23.8	15
1947-04-23	@ Fremad Amager	L 2-5	1662	1512	49.18%	14.11%	36.71%	-23.8	16
1947-04-24	Koge BK	W 3-1	1562	1550	58.53%	14.10%	27.36%	+11.6	12
1947-04-24	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1550	1562	27.36%	14.10%	58.53%	-11.6	10
1947-04-25	Frem	W 2-1	1649	1591	63.63%	14.05%	22.32%	+5.6	15
1947-04-25	@ KB Copenhagen	L 1-2	1591	1649	22.32%	14.05%	63.63%	-5.6	13
1947-04-26	B.93	W 2-0	1536	1488	62.50%	14.06%	23.44%	+11.6	17
1947-04-26	@ Fremad Amager	L 0-2	1488	1536	23.44%	14.06%	62.50%	-11.6	4
1947-04-27	Osterbros	D 4-4	1520	1639	41.04%	14.13%	44.83%	+0.1	9
1947-04-27	@ Aarhus GF	D 4-4	1639	1520	44.83%	14.13%	41.04%	-0.1	17
1947-04-27	Koge BK	W 4-3	1586	1538	62.56%	14.06%	23.38%	+5.4	16
1947-04-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 3-4	1538	1586	23.38%	14.06%	62.56%	-5.4	10
1947-04-27	Aalborg	W 2-0	1574	1439	70.53%	13.91%	15.56%	+8.0	14
1947-04-27	@ B 1903	L 0-2	1439	1574	15.56%	13.91%	70.53%	-8.0	7
1947-05-01	Frem	W 3-1	1592	1585	57.86%	14.11%	28.04%	+11.8	18
1947-05-01	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1585	1592	28.04%	14.11%	57.86%	-11.8	13
1947-05-02	Aarhus GF	D 3-3	1655	1520	70.54%	13.91%	15.55%	-2.0	16
1947-05-02	@ KB Copenhagen	D 3-3	1520	1655	15.55%	13.91%	70.54%	+2.0	10
1947-05-04	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-4	1581	1604	54.34%	14.13%	31.53%	-46.6	14
1947-05-04	@ B 1903	W 4-0	1604	1581	31.53%	14.13%	54.34%	+46.6	20
1947-05-04	Fremad Amager	W 1-0	1533	1548	55.24%	14.12%	30.64%	+7.9	12
1947-05-04	@ Koge BK	L 0-1	1548	1533	30.64%	14.12%	55.24%	-7.8	17
1947-05-04	B.93	L 0-2	1639	1477	72.52%	13.84%	13.64%	-32.7	17
1947-05-04	@ Osterbros	W 2-0	1477	1639	13.64%	13.84%	72.52%	+32.7	6
1947-05-08	Fremad Amager	L 0-1	1573	1540	60.97%	14.08%	24.95%	-14.6	13
1947-05-08	@ Frem	W 1-0	1540	1573	24.95%	14.08%	60.97%	+14.5	19
1947-05-11	KB Copenhagen	L 1-4	1431	1653	27.54%	14.01%	58.45%	-16.5	7
1947-05-11	@ Aalborg	W 4-1	1653	1431	58.45%	14.01%	27.54%	+16.5	18
1947-05-11	Fremad Amager	L 0-2	1535	1554	54.66%	14.13%	31.22%	-24.7	14
1947-05-11	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1554	1535	31.22%	14.13%	54.66%	+24.7	21
1947-05-11	Aarhus GF	L 3-4	1541	1522	59.30%	14.10%	26.60%	-12.4	12
1947-05-11	@ Koge BK	W 4-3	1522	1541	26.60%	14.10%	59.30%	+12.4	12
1947-05-14	B 1903	W 4-0	1669	1510	72.34%	13.85%	13.81%	+13.5	20
1947-05-14	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-4	1510	1669	13.81%	13.85%	72.34%	-13.5	14
1947-05-15	Frem	W 4-1	1534	1559	54.01%	14.13%	31.86%	+18.8	14
1947-05-15	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-4	1559	1534	31.86%	14.13%	54.01%	-18.8	13
1947-05-15	Aalborg	W 2-1	1650	1414	77.04%	13.62%	9.33%	+2.4	22
1947-05-15	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1414	1650	9.33%	13.62%	77.04%	-2.4	7
1947-05-15	Osterbros	W 4-0	1510	1606	44.28%	14.14%	41.58%	+36.7	8
1947-05-15	@ B.93	L 0-4	1606	1510	41.58%	14.14%	44.28%	-36.7	17
1947-05-18	Koge BK	W 1-0	1412	1528	41.37%	14.13%	44.50%	+10.9	9
1947-05-18	@ Aalborg	L 0-1	1528	1412	44.50%	14.13%	41.37%	-10.9	12
1947-05-18	Frem	W 3-1	1497	1540	51.57%	14.14%	34.30%	+14.2	16
1947-05-18	@ B 1903	L 1-3	1540	1497	34.30%	14.14%	51.57%	-14.2	13
1947-05-18	Osterbros	W 3-2	1683	1569	68.80%	13.95%	17.25%	+4.2	22
1947-05-18	@ KB Copenhagen	L 2-3	1569	1683	17.25%	13.95%	68.80%	-4.2	17
1947-05-20	AB Gladsaxe	W 5-0	1553	1653	43.79%	14.14%	42.07%	+45.7	16
1947-05-20	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-5	1653	1553	42.07%	14.14%	43.79%	-45.7	22
1947-05-20	B.93	D 1-1	1517	1546	53.48%	14.13%	32.39%	-1.2	13
1947-05-20	@ Koge BK	D 1-1	1546	1517	32.39%	14.13%	53.48%	+1.2	9
1947-05-21	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1526	1687	35.22%	14.10%	50.69%	+0.6	14
1947-05-21	@ Frem	D 2-2	1687	1526	50.69%	14.10%	35.22%	-0.6	23
1947-05-22	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-3	1423	1607	32.17%	14.07%	53.76%	-7.3	9
1947-05-22	@ Aalborg	W 3-2	1607	1423	53.76%	14.07%	32.17%	+7.3	24
1947-05-23	B 1903	W 2-1	1547	1511	61.30%	14.08%	24.62%	+6.1	11
1947-05-23	@ B.93	L 1-2	1511	1547	24.62%	14.08%	61.30%	-6.1	16
1947-05-25	AB Gladsaxe	L 0-6	1527	1614	45.49%	14.14%	40.37%	-58.1	14
1947-05-25	@ Frem	W 6-0	1614	1527	40.37%	14.14%	45.49%	+58.1	26
1947-05-25	Aalborg	W 3-2	1565	1415	71.65%	13.87%	14.48%	+3.5	19
1947-05-25	@ Osterbros	L 2-3	1415	1565	14.48%	13.87%	71.65%	-3.5	9
1947-05-26	Aarhus GF	L 0-1	1554	1599	51.34%	14.14%	34.52%	-12.4	11
1947-05-26	@ B.93	W 1-0	1599	1554	34.52%	14.14%	51.34%	+12.4	18
1947-05-26	KB Copenhagen	D 2-2	1579	1686	42.71%	14.13%	43.16%	+0.0	22
1947-05-26	@ Fremad Amager	D 2-2	1686	1579	43.16%	14.13%	42.71%	-0.0	24
1947-06-01	Aalborg	W 3-2	1611	1412	74.98%	13.74%	11.28%	+2.8	20
1947-06-01	@ Aarhus GF	L 2-3	1412	1611	11.28%	13.74%	74.98%	-2.8	9
1947-06-01	B.93	W 3-0	1686	1541	71.32%	13.88%	14.80%	+11.0	26
1947-06-01	@ KB Copenhagen	L 0-3	1541	1686	14.80%	13.88%	71.32%	-11.0	11
1947-06-17	B.93	W 5-1	1672	1530	71.09%	13.89%	15.02%	+12.2	28
1947-06-17	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-5	1530	1672	15.02%	13.89%	71.09%	-12.2	11
1947-06-17	Fremad Amager	W 4-2	1568	1579	55.76%	14.12%	30.11%	+11.3	21
1947-06-17	@ Osterbros	L 2-4	1579	1568	30.11%	14.12%	55.76%	-11.3	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1947-04-20	11.95%	Aalborg	1421	1	@ Frem	1609	0
2	1947-05-04	13.64%	B.93	1477	2	@ Osterbros	1639	0
3	1946-09-15	17.38%	B 1903	1462	4	@ Fremad Amager	1574	0
4	1947-04-04	19.54%	Fremad Amager	1538	1	@ AB Gladsaxe	1625	0
5	1946-09-22	20.45%	Fremad Amager	1515	1	@ B.93	1593	0
6	1947-04-20	22.90%	Aarhus GF	1490	5	@ Fremad Amager	1542	2
7	1946-08-17	24.09%	Fremad Amager	1536	4	@ KB Copenhagen	1578	2
8	1947-05-08	24.95%	Fremad Amager	1540	1	@ Frem	1573	0
9	1946-10-13	26.41%	KB Copenhagen	1556	3	@ B.93	1577	1
10	1947-05-11	26.60%	Aarhus GF	1522	4	@ Koge BK	1541	3
11	1947-04-15	27.46%	KB Copenhagen	1598	3	@ AB Gladsaxe	1609	1
12	1946-08-21	28.95%	AB Gladsaxe	1557	4	@ KB Copenhagen	1556	2
13	1946-10-20	31.06%	Koge BK	1513	2	@ Aarhus GF	1494	1
14	1946-10-13	31.17%	Osterbros	1631	2	@ Frem	1612	1
15	1947-05-11	31.22%	Fremad Amager	1554	2	@ B 1903	1535	0
16	1946-08-25	31.23%	KB Copenhagen	1536	3	@ B 1903	1517	1
17	1947-05-04	31.53%	AB Gladsaxe	1604	4	@ B 1903	1581	0
18	1947-04-13	31.68%	B 1903	1537	2	@ Aarhus GF	1514	0
19	1947-04-20	34.12%	KB Copenhagen	1621	4	@ Koge BK	1578	1
20	1947-05-26	34.52%	Aarhus GF	1599	1	@ B.93	1554	0
21	1946-10-27	35.52%	@ Aalborg	1485	2	Osterbros	1644	1
22	1947-04-23	36.71%	@ Fremad Amager	1512	5	Osterbros	1662	2
23	1946-11-24	37.55%	AB Gladsaxe	1603	2	@ B.93	1535	0
24	1947-04-13	37.56%	@ Aalborg	1410	2	Fremad Amager	1553	1
25	1946-08-25	38.87%	Frem	1588	2	@ Aalborg	1511	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1946-09-15	58.70	B 1903	4	1462	17.38%	@ Fremad Amager	0	1574	68.66%	13.95%
2	1946-11-10	58.48	@ Koge BK	11	1541	62.14%	Aalborg	0	1496	23.79%	14.07%
3	1947-05-25	58.08	AB Gladsaxe	6	1614	40.37%	@ Frem	0	1527	45.49%	14.14%
4	1947-05-04	46.63	AB Gladsaxe	4	1604	31.53%	@ B 1903	0	1581	54.34%	14.13%
5	1947-05-20	45.70	@ Aarhus GF	5	1553	43.79%	AB Gladsaxe	0	1653	42.07%	14.14%
6	1947-05-15	36.71	@ B.93	4	1510	44.28%	Osterbros	0	1606	41.58%	14.14%
7	1947-05-04	32.74	B.93	2	1477	13.64%	@ Osterbros	0	1639	72.52%	13.84%
8	1946-08-19	31.77	@ Frem	5	1557	58.08%	B 1903	0	1548	27.81%	14.11%
9	1947-04-20	30.10	Aarhus GF	5	1490	22.90%	@ Fremad Amager	2	1542	63.04%	14.06%
10	1946-10-27	29.12	@ Fremad Amager	5	1536	46.59%	AB Gladsaxe	1	1616	39.27%	14.14%
11	1947-04-20	28.76	KB Copenhagen	4	1621	34.12%	@ Koge BK	1	1578	51.74%	14.14%
12	1946-11-10	27.07	@ Aarhus GF	3	1482	46.04%	Fremad Amager	0	1565	39.82%	14.14%
13	1947-04-17	26.53	@ Osterbros	4	1636	57.16%	Frem	0	1635	28.72%	14.11%
14	1947-04-13	24.97	Frem	4	1610	41.67%	@ B.93	1	1513	44.19%	14.14%
15	1946-08-29	24.82	Osterbros	4	1594	41.98%	@ B 1903	1	1495	43.88%	14.14%
16	1947-05-11	24.71	Fremad Amager	2	1554	31.22%	@ B 1903	0	1535	54.66%	14.13%
17	1947-04-13	24.51	B 1903	2	1537	31.68%	@ Aarhus GF	0	1514	54.19%	14.13%
18	1947-04-23	23.77	@ Fremad Amager	5	1512	36.71%	Osterbros	2	1662	49.18%	14.11%
19	1946-10-13	23.22	KB Copenhagen	3	1556	26.41%	@ B.93	1	1577	59.50%	14.10%
20	1947-04-15	22.81	KB Copenhagen	3	1598	27.46%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1609	58.44%	14.10%
21	1946-11-24	22.06	AB Gladsaxe	2	1603	37.55%	@ B.93	0	1535	48.30%	14.14%
22	1946-08-17	21.56	Fremad Amager	4	1536	24.09%	@ KB Copenhagen	2	1578	61.84%	14.07%
23	1946-08-25	21.40	KB Copenhagen	3	1536	31.23%	@ B 1903	1	1517	54.65%	14.13%
24	1946-08-21	19.90	AB Gladsaxe	4	1557	28.95%	@ KB Copenhagen	2	1556	56.93%	14.11%
25	1946-08-25	19.57	@ AB Gladsaxe	4	1577	52.49%	Osterbros	1	1614	33.38%	14.14%