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1945-46 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

B.93

28 points · 1st Title

Relegated

B 1909

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

B.93

8.29 points above expected

28 points · 19.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

B 1909

4.50 points below expected

13 points · 17.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 B.93 Champion 18 13 2 3 28 61 29 +32 19.71 +8.29
2 KB Copenhagen 18 11 2 5 24 48 22 +26 20.36 +3.64
3 AB Gladsaxe 18 8 5 5 21 42 33 +9 18.23 +2.77
4 Frem 18 8 2 8 18 41 37 +4 18.87 -0.87
5 Fremad Amager 18 6 5 7 17 27 37 -10 17.37 -0.37
6 B 1903 18 6 4 8 16 31 34 -3 18.25 -2.25
7 Koge BK 18 6 3 9 15 35 48 -13 16.89 -1.89
8 Aarhus GF 18 6 2 10 14 26 42 -16 16.90 -2.90
9 Aalborg 18 6 2 10 14 19 38 -19 15.91 -1.91
10 B 1909 Relegated 18 4 5 9 13 27 37 -10 17.50 -4.50

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
B.93 1514 28 19.71 +8.29 99.3% 5 14 17 20 22 26 33
KB Copenhagen 1491 24 20.36 +3.64 86.4% 6 14 18 20 23 26 34
AB Gladsaxe 1448 21 18.23 +2.77 80.3% 5 12 16 18 21 24 30
Frem 1440 18 18.87 -0.87 46.1% 6 13 16 19 21 25 34
B 1903 1419 16 18.25 -2.25 32.3% 3 12 16 18 21 25 31
B 1909 1407 13 17.50 -4.50 14.5% 5 11 15 17 20 24 32
Fremad Amager 1405 17 17.37 -0.37 51.5% 3 11 15 17 20 24 32
Koge BK 1402 15 16.89 -1.89 36.4% 3 11 14 17 19 23 32
Aalborg 1388 14 15.91 -1.91 35.3% 3 10 13 16 18 22 31
Aarhus GF 1386 14 16.90 -2.90 26.2% 4 11 14 17 19 23 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AG AAL AG B1 B1 B.9 FRE FA KC KB
AB Gladsaxe —
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.70
1-1-0
2.96
0-1-1
2.63
1-1-0
3.04
Aalborg
1-0-1
2.52
 —
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.72
1-0-1
1.93
1-1-0
2.30
0-0-2
2.65
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
2.77
Aarhus GF
0-0-2
2.73
1-0-1
2.93
 —
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.73
0-0-2
2.57
2-0-0
2.46
0-1-1
2.85
1-0-1
1.98
1-0-1
2.83
B 1903
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
3.08
 —
1-1-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
2.80
0-2-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.05
B 1909
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.72
 —
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.80
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
2.91
B.93
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.70
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.00
 —
2-0-0
2.94
2-0-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.93
2-0-0
2.96
Frem
2-0-0
2.92
0-1-1
3.33
0-0-2
3.17
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
2.68
 —
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
2.67
2-0-0
3.02
Fremad Amager
0-1-1
2.66
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
2.77
0-2-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
2.67
 —
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.90
KB Copenhagen
1-1-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
3.19
2-0-0
3.13
1-1-0
2.70
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
3.30
 —
0-0-2
3.47
Koge BK
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.72
2-0-0
2.16
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +3.7
Allowed 0.57 -5.2
Differential 0.93 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%5.00%5.00%1.11%4.44%1.67%18.33%
15.00%5.56%7.78%4.44%1.11%0.56%24.44%
25.00%7.78%8.89%2.78%2.22%2.78%29.44%
31.11%4.44%2.78%2.22%—0.56%11.11%
44.44%1.11%2.22%——1.67%9.44%
5+1.67%0.56%2.78%0.56%1.67%—7.22%
Total18.33%24.44%29.44%11.11%9.44%7.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.98 1.98 +0.00
SD 1.67 1.67 2.48
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%—11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
Total16.67%22.22%38.89%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.83 +0.50
SD 1.88 1.29 2.26
CV 0.81 0.71 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%22.22%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
1—11.11%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%44.44%27.78%—11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.11 -1.06
SD 1.16 1.78 2.46
CV 1.10 0.84 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
116.67%—16.67%5.56%——38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.33 -0.89
SD 0.98 2.09 2.49
CV 0.68 0.89 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.89 -0.17
SD 1.18 1.23 2.09
CV 0.68 0.65 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%22.22%5.56%——33.33%
211.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%—11.11%50.00%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%38.89%16.67%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.06 -0.56
SD 0.79 1.59 1.58
CV 0.52 0.77 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
411.11%—11.11%———22.22%
5+5.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
Total33.33%5.56%38.89%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.61 +1.78
SD 2.38 1.38 2.80
CV 0.70 0.86 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
416.67%—5.56%——5.56%27.78%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.06 +0.22
SD 1.67 2.10 2.76
CV 0.73 1.02 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
111.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.06 -0.56
SD 1.04 1.83 2.04
CV 0.70 0.89 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+11.11%———5.56%—16.67%
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.22 +1.44
SD 2.43 1.22 2.59
CV 0.91 0.99 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————11.11%—11.11%
15.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%—11.11%44.44%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%38.89%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.67 -0.72
SD 1.26 1.91 2.27
CV 0.65 0.72 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B.93 28 19.71 +8.29
2 KB Copenhagen 24 20.36 +3.64
3 AB Gladsaxe 21 18.23 +2.77
4 Fremad Amager 17 17.37 -0.37
5 Frem 18 18.87 -0.87

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 B 1909 13 17.50 -4.50
2 Aarhus GF 14 16.90 -2.90
3 B 1903 16 18.25 -2.25
4 Aalborg 14 15.91 -1.91
5 Koge BK 15 16.89 -1.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KB Copenhagen 6 Aug 19 – Nov 18 1 in 245
2 Frem 4 Aug 17 – Oct 7 1 in 32
3 B.93 4 Sep 16 – Nov 11 1 in 29
4 Fremad Amager 3 Sep 30 – Oct 21 1 in 18
5 Koge BK 2 Apr 19 – Apr 22 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KB Copenhagen 3 Apr 13 – Apr 19 1 in 49
2 Koge BK 4 Sep 16 – Oct 28 1 in 43
3 Aarhus GF 4 Aug 12 – Oct 21 1 in 36
4 B 1909 4 Oct 7 – Nov 25 1 in 34
5 Aalborg 4 Oct 28 – Nov 25 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B.93 8 Sep 16 – Apr 14 1 in 39
2 KB Copenhagen 6 Aug 19 – Nov 18 1 in 24
3 Fremad Amager 5 Mar 24 – Apr 19 1 in 21
4 Aalborg 4 Apr 28 – May 19 1 in 14
5 AB Gladsaxe 5 Oct 21 – Dec 2 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 B 1909 7 Sep 2 – Nov 25 1 in 35
2 Koge BK 6 Aug 12 – Oct 28 1 in 24
3 Fremad Amager 6 Apr 19 – May 12 1 in 23
4 B 1903 5 Apr 22 – Jun 1 1 in 13
5 KB Copenhagen 3 Apr 13 – Apr 19 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
B.9319.39%17.17%13.49%12.14%10.02%8.14%6.53%5.54%4.49%3.09%
KB Copenhagen24.87%17.08%14.63%11.01%9.04%7.01%5.90%4.48%3.84%2.14%
AB Gladsaxe10.21%10.88%11.31%11.46%11.09%10.74%10.17%9.17%8.11%6.86%
Frem12.66%12.48%12.18%12.17%10.84%10.72%9.26%7.76%6.72%5.21%
Fremad Amager5.62%7.40%9.00%9.45%10.82%10.71%11.46%11.92%12.18%11.44%
B 19039.17%10.90%10.82%11.50%11.03%10.52%10.56%9.58%8.69%7.23%
Koge BK4.92%6.51%7.20%7.96%9.45%10.89%11.88%12.78%13.78%14.63%
Aarhus GF4.34%5.72%7.25%8.47%9.37%11.30%11.26%13.26%13.68%15.35%
Aalborg2.57%3.90%5.22%6.52%7.94%9.21%11.22%13.51%16.82%23.09%
B 19096.25%7.96%8.90%9.32%10.40%10.76%11.76%12.00%11.69%10.96%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
Slight Edge
45.56%17.78%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
86 Elo
0.012 goals per Elo point
030.96250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.8
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
B.93, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.01 * Some Luck: 3.01 to 4.51 * Lucky: 4.51 to 6.01 * Wild Swing: 6.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.12 * Close: 2.12 to 3.17 * Off: 3.17 to 4.23 * Way Off: 4.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.77 * A Surprise: 0.77 to 1.23 * Several Surprises: 1.23 to 1.69 * Many Surprises: 1.69 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.63 points
Some Luck
03.769
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Pinpoint
02.656
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.35%
B.93
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.46%
B 1909
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.15
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
68%
Even
50%69%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.18
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.95
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
42%
Very Upset-Prone
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%29%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.83
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.28
Overconfident
0.06531161.001.93469
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.170
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1590.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
KB Copenhagen 97.86% 2.14%
B.93 96.91% 3.09%
Frem 94.79% 5.21%
AB Gladsaxe 93.14% 6.86%
B 1903 92.77% 7.23%
B 1909 89.04% 10.96%
Fremad Amager 88.56% 11.44%
Koge BK 85.37% 14.63%
Aarhus GF 84.65% 15.35%
Aalborg 76.91% 23.09%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1945-08-12 Aarhus GF W 2-1 1430 1430 47.07% 18.82% 34.11% +3.1 2
1945-08-12 @ B 1909 L 1-2 1430 1430 34.11% 18.82% 47.07% -3.1 0
1945-08-12 Koge BK W 6-4 1430 1430 47.07% 18.82% 34.11% +4.4 2
1945-08-12 @ B.93 L 4-6 1430 1430 34.11% 18.82% 47.07% -4.4 0
1945-08-17 Frem L 2-4 1430 1430 47.07% 18.82% 34.11% -6.3 0
1945-08-17 @ B 1903 W 4-2 1430 1430 34.11% 18.82% 47.07% +6.3 2
1945-08-19 B 1909 L 0-2 1430 1433 46.64% 18.82% 34.53% -8.1 0
1945-08-19 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1433 1430 34.53% 18.82% 46.64% +8.1 4
1945-08-19 KB Copenhagen L 2-4 1430 1430 47.07% 18.82% 34.11% -6.3 0
1945-08-19 @ AB Gladsaxe W 4-2 1430 1430 34.11% 18.82% 47.07% +6.3 2
1945-08-19 B.93 L 0-2 1430 1435 46.47% 18.83% 34.70% -8.1 0
1945-08-19 @ Fremad Amager W 2-0 1435 1430 34.70% 18.83% 46.47% +8.1 4
1945-08-28 Fremad Amager W 3-0 1437 1422 49.00% 18.78% 32.23% +8.7 4
1945-08-28 @ Frem L 0-3 1422 1437 32.23% 18.78% 49.00% -8.7 0
1945-08-29 B.93 W 4-0 1437 1443 46.23% 18.83% 34.94% +12.1 4
1945-08-29 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-4 1443 1437 34.94% 18.83% 46.23% -12.1 4
1945-09-02 B 1909 D 2-2 1426 1441 44.92% 18.84% 36.23% -0.1 1
1945-09-02 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1441 1426 36.23% 18.84% 44.92% +0.1 5
1945-09-16 B 1903 L 1-2 1427 1424 47.50% 18.81% 33.69% -4.1 0
1945-09-16 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1424 1427 33.69% 18.81% 47.50% +4.1 2
1945-09-16 Aalborg W 5-1 1424 1422 47.31% 18.81% 33.88% +9.8 2
1945-09-16 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-5 1422 1424 33.88% 18.81% 47.31% -9.8 0
1945-09-16 B.93 L 2-3 1442 1431 48.54% 18.79% 32.67% -4.0 5
1945-09-16 @ B 1909 W 3-2 1431 1442 32.67% 18.79% 48.54% +4.0 6
1945-09-16 Frem L 0-4 1426 1445 44.39% 18.85% 36.77% -14.7 1
1945-09-16 @ Koge BK W 4-0 1445 1426 36.77% 18.85% 44.39% +14.7 6
1945-09-30 B 1909 D 2-2 1428 1438 45.76% 18.84% 35.40% -0.1 3
1945-09-30 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1438 1428 35.40% 18.84% 45.76% +0.2 6
1945-09-30 Koge BK W 3-1 1414 1411 47.41% 18.81% 33.77% +5.4 2
1945-09-30 @ Fremad Amager L 1-3 1411 1414 33.77% 18.81% 47.41% -5.4 1
1945-10-07 Fremad Amager L 0-2 1412 1419 46.17% 18.83% 34.99% -8.0 0
1945-10-07 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1419 1412 34.99% 18.83% 46.17% +8.0 4
1945-10-07 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1438 1449 45.58% 18.84% 35.58% -7.9 6
1945-10-07 @ B 1909 W 2-0 1449 1438 35.58% 18.84% 45.58% +7.9 6
1945-10-07 Aarhus GF W 4-2 1435 1423 48.63% 18.79% 32.59% +4.7 8
1945-10-07 @ B.93 L 2-4 1423 1435 32.59% 18.79% 48.63% -4.7 0
1945-10-07 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1460 1434 50.54% 18.73% 30.73% +2.9 8
1945-10-07 @ Frem L 1-2 1434 1460 30.73% 18.73% 50.54% -2.9 2
1945-10-07 B 1903 L 1-2 1406 1428 44.00% 18.85% 37.15% -3.8 1
1945-10-07 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1428 1406 37.15% 18.85% 44.00% +3.8 5
1945-10-21 AB Gladsaxe L 2-3 1418 1431 45.35% 18.84% 35.80% -3.8 0
1945-10-21 @ Aarhus GF W 3-2 1431 1418 35.80% 18.84% 45.35% +3.8 4
1945-10-21 Fremad Amager L 1-2 1430 1427 47.46% 18.81% 33.73% -4.1 6
1945-10-21 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1427 1430 33.73% 18.81% 47.46% +4.1 6
1945-10-21 Aalborg L 1-3 1463 1404 54.58% 18.56% 26.86% -8.1 8
1945-10-21 @ Frem W 3-1 1404 1463 26.86% 18.56% 54.58% +8.1 2
1945-10-21 B 1903 W 2-1 1457 1432 50.37% 18.74% 30.89% +2.9 8
1945-10-21 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1432 1457 30.89% 18.74% 50.37% -2.9 5
1945-10-28 KB Copenhagen L 0-2 1412 1459 40.48% 18.84% 40.67% -7.2 2
1945-10-28 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1459 1412 40.67% 18.84% 40.48% +7.2 10
1945-10-28 Fremad Amager W 5-4 1435 1431 47.56% 18.81% 33.63% +2.8 6
1945-10-28 @ AB Gladsaxe L 4-5 1431 1435 33.63% 18.81% 47.56% -2.8 6
1945-10-28 Frem W 5-3 1439 1455 44.95% 18.84% 36.21% +4.8 10
1945-10-28 @ B.93 L 3-5 1455 1439 36.21% 18.84% 44.95% -4.8 8
1945-10-28 Aarhus GF L 2-3 1402 1415 45.31% 18.84% 35.85% -3.8 1
1945-10-28 @ Koge BK W 3-2 1415 1402 35.85% 18.84% 45.31% +3.8 2
1945-11-04 Koge BK L 0-2 1405 1398 48.03% 18.80% 33.17% -8.3 2
1945-11-04 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1398 1405 33.17% 18.80% 48.03% +8.3 3
1945-11-11 Aalborg W 1-0 1418 1397 49.93% 18.75% 31.32% +3.1 4
1945-11-11 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1397 1418 31.32% 18.75% 49.93% -3.1 2
1945-11-11 B 1903 W 1-0 1444 1429 49.10% 18.77% 32.12% +3.2 12
1945-11-11 @ B.93 L 0-1 1429 1444 32.12% 18.77% 49.10% -3.1 5
1945-11-11 B 1909 W 5-2 1450 1426 50.28% 18.74% 30.98% +6.1 10
1945-11-11 @ Frem L 2-5 1426 1450 30.98% 18.74% 50.28% -6.1 6
1945-11-11 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1406 1437 42.76% 18.85% 38.39% -0.1 4
1945-11-11 @ Koge BK D 2-2 1437 1406 38.39% 18.85% 42.76% +0.1 7
1945-11-18 KB Copenhagen L 4-8 1456 1467 45.62% 18.84% 35.54% -9.2 10
1945-11-18 @ Frem W 8-4 1467 1456 35.54% 18.84% 45.62% +9.2 12
1945-11-18 Aarhus GF D 2-2 1428 1421 47.98% 18.80% 33.22% -0.2 7
1945-11-18 @ Fremad Amager D 2-2 1421 1428 33.22% 18.80% 47.98% +0.2 5
1945-11-25 Frem W 2-1 1422 1447 43.59% 18.85% 37.56% +3.4 7
1945-11-25 @ Aarhus GF L 1-2 1447 1422 37.56% 18.85% 43.59% -3.4 10
1945-11-25 B 1909 W 2-1 1438 1420 49.46% 18.77% 31.78% +2.9 9
1945-11-25 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-2 1420 1438 31.78% 18.77% 49.46% -2.9 6
1945-11-25 Aalborg W 4-1 1426 1394 51.28% 18.71% 30.02% +6.9 7
1945-11-25 @ B 1903 L 1-4 1394 1426 30.02% 18.71% 51.28% -6.9 2
1945-11-25 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1406 1476 37.32% 18.80% 43.89% +4.1 6
1945-11-25 @ Koge BK L 0-1 1476 1406 43.89% 18.80% 37.32% -4.1 12
1945-12-02 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1447 1440 47.98% 18.80% 33.22% -0.2 13
1945-12-02 @ B.93 D 2-2 1440 1447 33.22% 18.80% 47.98% +0.2 10
1945-12-02 KB Copenhagen L 0-6 1428 1472 40.96% 18.85% 40.19% -20.2 7
1945-12-02 @ Fremad Amager W 6-0 1472 1428 40.19% 18.85% 40.96% +20.2 14
1945-12-09 AB Gladsaxe W 4-0 1433 1441 45.96% 18.83% 35.20% +12.2 9
1945-12-09 @ B 1903 L 0-4 1441 1433 35.20% 18.83% 45.96% -12.2 10
1946-03-24 B 1903 W 3-2 1387 1445 38.96% 18.83% 42.22% +3.5 4
1946-03-24 @ Aalborg L 2-3 1445 1387 42.22% 18.83% 38.96% -3.5 9
1946-03-24 Fremad Amager L 1-2 1425 1408 49.37% 18.77% 31.86% -4.2 7
1946-03-24 @ Aarhus GF W 2-1 1408 1425 31.86% 18.77% 49.37% +4.3 9
1946-03-30 Fremad Amager D 1-1 1441 1412 50.92% 18.72% 30.36% -0.4 10
1946-03-30 @ B 1903 D 1-1 1412 1441 30.36% 18.72% 50.92% +0.4 10
1946-03-31 Aarhus GF W 4-0 1429 1421 48.11% 18.80% 33.09% +11.6 12
1946-03-31 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-4 1421 1429 33.09% 18.80% 48.11% -11.6 7
1946-03-31 Frem W 2-0 1417 1443 43.37% 18.85% 37.78% +6.8 8
1946-03-31 @ B 1909 L 0-2 1443 1417 37.78% 18.85% 43.37% -6.8 10
1946-03-31 Aalborg W 7-0 1492 1390 59.51% 18.22% 22.27% +13.8 16
1946-03-31 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-7 1390 1492 22.27% 18.22% 59.51% -13.9 4
1946-03-31 B.93 L 2-5 1410 1447 41.97% 18.85% 39.18% -7.9 6
1946-03-31 @ Koge BK W 5-2 1447 1410 39.18% 18.85% 41.97% +7.9 15
1946-04-07 B.93 L 0-9 1409 1455 40.69% 18.85% 40.46% -29.5 7
1946-04-07 @ Aarhus GF W 9-0 1455 1409 40.46% 18.85% 40.69% +29.5 17
1946-04-07 AB Gladsaxe D 0-0 1423 1440 44.79% 18.85% 36.36% -0.2 9
1946-04-07 @ B 1909 D 0-0 1440 1423 36.36% 18.85% 44.79% +0.2 13
1946-04-07 Koge BK D 2-2 1441 1402 52.09% 18.68% 29.23% -0.3 11
1946-04-07 @ B 1903 D 2-2 1402 1441 29.23% 18.68% 52.09% +0.3 7
1946-04-07 Aalborg W 1-0 1412 1377 51.78% 18.69% 29.53% +2.9 12
1946-04-07 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1377 1412 29.53% 18.69% 51.78% -2.9 4
1946-04-11 Koge BK W 4-0 1437 1403 51.52% 18.70% 29.78% +10.6 12
1946-04-11 @ Frem L 0-4 1403 1437 29.78% 18.70% 51.52% -10.6 7
1946-04-13 KB Copenhagen W 2-0 1440 1506 37.90% 18.81% 43.29% +7.6 13
1946-04-13 @ B 1903 L 0-2 1506 1440 43.29% 18.81% 37.90% -7.6 16
1946-04-14 AB Gladsaxe W 2-1 1374 1440 37.73% 18.81% 43.46% +3.8 6
1946-04-14 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1440 1374 43.46% 18.81% 37.73% -3.8 13
1946-04-14 B 1909 W 6-2 1484 1423 54.89% 18.54% 26.56% +6.8 19
1946-04-14 @ B.93 L 2-6 1423 1484 26.56% 18.54% 54.89% -6.8 9
1946-04-14 Aarhus GF L 0-1 1447 1380 55.66% 18.50% 25.84% -5.0 12
1946-04-14 @ Frem W 1-0 1380 1447 25.84% 18.50% 55.66% +5.0 9
1946-04-16 Fremad Amager L 0-1 1498 1415 57.43% 18.38% 24.19% -5.2 16
1946-04-16 @ KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1415 1498 24.19% 18.38% 57.43% +5.2 14
1946-04-18 Aarhus GF W 3-1 1377 1385 46.08% 18.83% 35.09% +5.5 8
1946-04-18 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1385 1377 35.09% 18.83% 46.08% -5.5 9
1946-04-18 B.93 W 1-0 1436 1491 39.40% 18.83% 41.77% +3.9 15
1946-04-18 @ AB Gladsaxe L 0-1 1491 1436 41.77% 18.83% 39.40% -3.9 19
1946-04-19 B 1903 L 1-3 1417 1448 42.70% 18.85% 38.45% -6.5 9
1946-04-19 @ B 1909 W 3-1 1448 1417 38.45% 18.85% 42.70% +6.5 15
1946-04-19 Frem D 1-1 1421 1442 44.09% 18.85% 37.06% -0.1 15
1946-04-19 @ Fremad Amager D 1-1 1442 1421 37.06% 18.85% 44.09% +0.1 13
1946-04-19 Koge BK L 1-3 1493 1392 59.43% 18.23% 22.34% -8.7 16
1946-04-19 @ KB Copenhagen W 3-1 1392 1493 22.34% 18.23% 59.43% +8.7 9
1946-04-21 Aalborg W 4-0 1487 1383 59.81% 18.19% 22.00% +8.1 21
1946-04-21 @ B.93 L 0-4 1383 1487 22.00% 18.19% 59.81% -8.1 8
1946-04-22 Aarhus GF L 1-3 1455 1379 56.58% 18.44% 24.98% -8.3 15
1946-04-22 @ B 1903 W 3-1 1379 1455 24.98% 18.44% 56.58% +8.3 11
1946-04-22 B 1909 W 2-1 1484 1410 56.45% 18.45% 25.10% +2.4 18
1946-04-22 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-2 1410 1484 25.10% 18.45% 56.45% -2.4 9
1946-04-22 Fremad Amager W 5-2 1401 1420 44.39% 18.85% 36.76% +7.0 11
1946-04-22 @ Koge BK L 2-5 1420 1401 36.76% 18.85% 44.39% -7.0 15
1946-04-23 Frem L 1-3 1440 1442 46.80% 18.82% 34.38% -7.0 15
1946-04-23 @ AB Gladsaxe W 3-1 1442 1440 34.38% 18.82% 46.80% +7.0 15
1946-04-25 Fremad Amager W 4-2 1495 1413 57.33% 18.39% 24.28% +3.6 23
1946-04-25 @ B.93 L 2-4 1413 1495 24.28% 18.39% 57.33% -3.6 15
1946-04-26 B 1903 W 4-0 1449 1446 47.50% 18.81% 33.69% +11.7 17
1946-04-26 @ Frem L 0-4 1446 1449 33.69% 18.81% 47.50% -11.7 15
1946-04-27 Koge BK W 7-2 1433 1408 50.42% 18.74% 30.84% +9.3 17
1946-04-27 @ AB Gladsaxe L 2-7 1408 1433 30.84% 18.74% 50.42% -9.3 11
1946-04-28 B.93 W 2-0 1375 1499 30.20% 18.54% 51.27% +8.8 10
1946-04-28 @ Aalborg L 0-2 1499 1375 51.27% 18.54% 30.20% -8.8 23
1946-04-28 B 1909 D 3-3 1388 1408 44.31% 18.85% 36.84% -0.1 12
1946-04-28 @ Aarhus GF D 3-3 1408 1388 36.84% 18.85% 44.31% +0.1 10
1946-05-02 Frem W 4-1 1487 1461 50.46% 18.74% 30.81% +7.0 20
1946-05-02 @ KB Copenhagen L 1-4 1461 1487 30.81% 18.74% 50.46% -7.0 17
1946-05-04 AB Gladsaxe D 1-1 1410 1443 42.52% 18.85% 38.63% -0.1 16
1946-05-04 @ Fremad Amager D 1-1 1443 1410 38.63% 18.85% 42.52% +0.1 18
1946-05-05 Frem D 1-1 1384 1454 37.20% 18.80% 44.00% +0.1 11
1946-05-05 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1454 1384 44.00% 18.80% 37.20% -0.1 18
1946-05-05 Koge BK L 1-2 1408 1399 48.27% 18.79% 32.93% -4.2 10
1946-05-05 @ B 1909 W 2-1 1399 1408 32.93% 18.79% 48.27% +4.2 13
1946-05-05 B.93 L 0-3 1434 1490 39.26% 18.83% 41.91% -10.2 15
1946-05-05 @ B 1903 W 3-0 1490 1434 41.91% 18.83% 39.26% +10.2 25
1946-05-05 Aarhus GF W 1-0 1494 1387 60.02% 18.17% 21.80% +2.2 22
1946-05-05 @ KB Copenhagen L 0-1 1387 1494 21.80% 18.17% 60.02% -2.2 12
1946-05-08 B.93 L 0-4 1454 1500 40.59% 18.84% 40.57% -13.7 18
1946-05-08 @ Frem W 4-0 1500 1454 40.57% 18.84% 40.59% +13.7 27
1946-05-09 B 1903 D 2-2 1410 1424 45.08% 18.84% 36.08% -0.1 17
1946-05-09 @ Fremad Amager D 2-2 1424 1410 36.08% 18.84% 45.08% +0.1 16
1946-05-12 KB Copenhagen W 1-0 1385 1496 31.85% 18.62% 49.53% +4.5 14
1946-05-12 @ Aarhus GF L 0-1 1496 1385 49.53% 18.62% 31.85% -4.5 22
1946-05-12 B 1909 L 1-2 1410 1404 47.89% 18.80% 33.31% -4.1 17
1946-05-12 @ Fremad Amager W 2-1 1404 1410 33.31% 18.80% 47.89% +4.2 12
1946-05-12 Aalborg L 1-2 1403 1384 49.61% 18.76% 31.63% -4.3 13
1946-05-12 @ Koge BK W 2-1 1384 1403 31.63% 18.76% 49.61% +4.3 13
1946-05-19 Koge BK L 2-3 1390 1399 45.85% 18.84% 35.31% -3.8 14
1946-05-19 @ Aarhus GF W 3-2 1399 1390 35.31% 18.84% 45.85% +3.8 15
1946-05-19 Aalborg D 1-1 1408 1388 49.67% 18.76% 31.57% -0.4 13
1946-05-19 @ B 1909 D 1-1 1388 1408 31.57% 18.76% 49.67% +0.4 14
1946-05-25 AB Gladsaxe D 2-2 1491 1443 53.39% 18.62% 27.99% -0.4 23
1946-05-25 @ KB Copenhagen D 2-2 1443 1491 27.99% 18.62% 53.39% +0.4 19
1946-05-27 KB Copenhagen D 3-3 1514 1491 50.12% 18.75% 31.13% -0.2 28
1946-05-27 @ B.93 D 3-3 1491 1514 31.13% 18.75% 50.12% +0.2 24
1946-06-01 B 1903 W 3-1 1443 1424 49.56% 18.76% 31.68% +5.1 21
1946-06-01 @ AB Gladsaxe L 1-3 1424 1443 31.68% 18.76% 49.56% -5.1 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1946-04-19 22.34% Koge BK 1392 3 @ KB Copenhagen 1493 1
2 1946-04-16 24.19% Fremad Amager 1415 1 @ KB Copenhagen 1498 0
3 1946-04-22 24.98% Aarhus GF 1379 3 @ B 1903 1455 1
4 1946-04-14 25.84% Aarhus GF 1380 1 @ Frem 1447 0
5 1945-10-21 26.86% Aalborg 1404 3 @ Frem 1463 1
6 1946-04-28 30.20% @ Aalborg 1375 2 B.93 1499 0
7 1946-05-12 31.63% Aalborg 1384 2 @ Koge BK 1403 1
8 1946-05-12 31.85% @ Aarhus GF 1385 1 KB Copenhagen 1496 0
9 1946-03-24 31.86% Fremad Amager 1408 2 @ Aarhus GF 1425 1
10 1945-09-16 32.67% B.93 1431 3 @ B 1909 1442 2
11 1946-05-05 32.93% Koge BK 1399 2 @ B 1909 1408 1
12 1945-11-04 33.17% Koge BK 1398 2 @ Aalborg 1405 0
13 1946-05-12 33.31% B 1909 1404 2 @ Fremad Amager 1410 1
14 1945-09-16 33.69% B 1903 1424 2 @ Aarhus GF 1427 1
15 1945-10-21 33.73% Fremad Amager 1427 2 @ B 1909 1430 1
16 1945-08-17 34.11% Frem 1430 4 @ B 1903 1430 2
17 1945-08-19 34.11% KB Copenhagen 1430 4 @ AB Gladsaxe 1430 2
18 1946-04-23 34.38% Frem 1442 3 @ AB Gladsaxe 1440 1
19 1945-08-19 34.53% B 1909 1433 2 @ Aalborg 1430 0
20 1945-08-19 34.70% B.93 1435 2 @ Fremad Amager 1430 0
21 1945-10-07 34.99% Fremad Amager 1419 2 @ Aalborg 1412 0
22 1946-05-19 35.31% Koge BK 1399 3 @ Aarhus GF 1390 2
23 1945-11-18 35.54% KB Copenhagen 1467 8 @ Frem 1456 4
24 1945-10-07 35.58% KB Copenhagen 1449 2 @ B 1909 1438 0
25 1945-10-21 35.80% AB Gladsaxe 1431 3 @ Aarhus GF 1418 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1946-04-07 29.52 B.93 9 1455 40.46% @ Aarhus GF 0 1409 40.69% 18.85%
2 1945-12-02 20.17 KB Copenhagen 6 1472 40.19% @ Fremad Amager 0 1428 40.96% 18.85%
3 1945-09-16 14.73 Frem 4 1445 36.77% @ Koge BK 0 1426 44.39% 18.85%
4 1946-03-31 13.86 @ KB Copenhagen 7 1492 59.51% Aalborg 0 1390 22.27% 18.22%
5 1946-05-08 13.67 B.93 4 1500 40.57% @ Frem 0 1454 40.59% 18.84%
6 1945-12-09 12.17 @ B 1903 4 1433 45.96% AB Gladsaxe 0 1441 35.20% 18.83%
7 1945-08-29 12.10 @ KB Copenhagen 4 1437 46.23% B.93 0 1443 34.94% 18.83%
8 1946-04-26 11.73 @ Frem 4 1449 47.50% B 1903 0 1446 33.69% 18.81%
9 1946-03-31 11.56 @ AB Gladsaxe 4 1429 48.11% Aarhus GF 0 1421 33.09% 18.80%
10 1946-04-11 10.57 @ Frem 4 1437 51.52% Koge BK 0 1403 29.78% 18.70%
11 1946-05-05 10.19 B.93 3 1490 41.91% @ B 1903 0 1434 39.26% 18.83%
12 1945-09-16 9.82 @ AB Gladsaxe 5 1424 47.31% Aalborg 1 1422 33.88% 18.81%
13 1946-04-27 9.30 @ AB Gladsaxe 7 1433 50.42% Koge BK 2 1408 30.84% 18.74%
14 1945-11-18 9.18 KB Copenhagen 8 1467 35.54% @ Frem 4 1456 45.62% 18.84%
15 1946-04-28 8.79 @ Aalborg 2 1375 30.20% B.93 0 1499 51.27% 18.54%
16 1946-04-19 8.74 Koge BK 3 1392 22.34% @ KB Copenhagen 1 1493 59.43% 18.23%
17 1945-08-28 8.65 @ Frem 3 1437 49.00% Fremad Amager 0 1422 32.23% 18.78%
18 1946-04-22 8.35 Aarhus GF 3 1379 24.98% @ B 1903 1 1455 56.58% 18.44%
19 1945-11-04 8.31 Koge BK 2 1398 33.17% @ Aalborg 0 1405 48.03% 18.80%
20 1945-08-19 8.10 B 1909 2 1433 34.53% @ Aalborg 0 1430 46.64% 18.82%
21 1946-04-21 8.09 @ B.93 4 1487 59.81% Aalborg 0 1383 22.00% 18.19%
22 1945-08-19 8.07 B.93 2 1435 34.70% @ Fremad Amager 0 1430 46.47% 18.83%
23 1945-10-21 8.07 Aalborg 3 1404 26.86% @ Frem 1 1463 54.58% 18.56%
24 1945-10-07 8.03 Fremad Amager 2 1419 34.99% @ Aalborg 0 1412 46.17% 18.83%
25 1945-10-07 7.94 KB Copenhagen 2 1449 35.58% @ B 1909 0 1438 45.58% 18.84%