1951-52 1st Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

AB Gladsaxe

26 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1950-51

Relegated

Aarhus GF

12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

B 1909

3.85 points above expected

20 points · 16.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Aarhus GF

7.15 points below expected

12 points · 19.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	AB Gladsaxe Champion	18	11	4	3	26	40	21	+19	23.85	+2.15
2	Koge BK	18	10	1	7	21	40	33	+7	19.01	+1.99
3	B 1909	18	9	2	7	20	34	28	+6	16.15	+3.85
4	Odense	18	8	4	6	20	29	29	0	17.90	+2.10
5	Skovshoved	18	7	4	7	18	36	34	+2	15.77	+2.23
6	B.93	18	7	3	8	17	18	24	-6	16.58	+0.42
7	Frem	18	6	4	8	16	20	23	-3	17.88	-1.88
8	B 1903	18	6	4	8	16	26	34	-8	17.52	-1.52
9	Esbjerg	18	6	2	10	14	34	46	-12	16.20	-2.20
10	Aarhus GF Relegated	18	4	4	10	12	22	27	-5	19.15	-7.15

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
AB Gladsaxe	1571	26	23.85	+2.15	76.8%	11	18	21	24	26	29	35
Koge BK	1485	21	19.01	+1.99	74.3%	6	13	16	19	22	25	33
Aarhus GF	1469	12	19.15	-7.15	4.0%	5	13	17	19	22	25	32
Odense	1467	20	17.90	+2.10	75.2%	5	12	15	18	20	24	32
B 1909	1456	20	16.15	+3.85	87.4%	4	10	14	16	19	22	30
Skovshoved	1456	18	15.77	+2.23	78.0%	4	10	13	16	18	22	29
Frem	1450	16	17.88	-1.88	36.0%	4	12	15	18	20	24	31
B 1903	1442	16	17.52	-1.52	39.9%	5	12	15	17	20	24	30
B.93	1439	17	16.58	+0.42	60.0%	2	10	14	17	19	23	30
Esbjerg	1415	14	16.20	-2.20	32.6%	2	10	14	16	19	22	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AG	AG	B1	B1	B.9	ESB	FRE	KB	ODE	SKO
AB Gladsaxe	—	1-0-1 3.50	1-1-0 3.80	2-0-0 3.86	1-1-0 3.83	1-0-1 3.79	1-1-0 3.59	1-1-0 3.40	2-0-0 3.54	1-0-1 3.58
Aarhus GF	1-0-1 2.10	—	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 3.18	0-0-2 3.26	1-0-1 3.22	0-1-1 3.04	0-0-2 2.88	0-1-1 3.05	0-2-0 3.05
B 1903	0-1-1 1.81	1-0-1 2.46	—	1-0-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.82	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 2.58	1-1-0 2.61	2-0-0 2.66
B 1909	0-0-2 1.75	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.80	—	2-0-0 2.73	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.50	2-0-0 2.30	0-1-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.63
B.93	0-1-1 1.79	2-0-0 2.34	1-1-0 2.78	0-0-2 2.87	—	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 2.58	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 2.56	1-0-1 2.70
Esbjerg	1-0-1 1.83	1-0-1 2.38	1-1-0 2.87	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.66	—	0-0-2 2.64	0-0-2 2.34	1-0-1 2.50	1-0-1 2.56
Frem	0-1-1 2.01	1-1-0 2.55	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 3.09	0-1-1 3.01	2-0-0 2.95	—	1-0-1 2.61	0-0-2 2.83	0-1-1 2.78
Koge BK	0-1-1 2.20	2-0-0 2.71	2-0-0 3.01	0-0-2 3.30	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.26	1-0-1 2.99	—	1-0-1 3.03	1-0-1 3.05
Odense	0-0-2 2.07	1-1-0 2.54	0-1-1 2.98	1-1-0 3.03	2-0-0 3.03	1-0-1 3.10	2-0-0 2.77	1-0-1 2.57	—	0-1-1 2.86
Skovshoved	1-0-1 2.02	0-2-0 2.54	0-0-2 2.93	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.55	1-1-0 2.74	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.42	+3.2
Allowed	0.16	-2.2
Differential	0.82	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	7.22%	4.44%	3.89%	0.56%	—	21.67%
1	7.22%	4.44%	5.56%	7.22%	1.67%	—	26.11%
2	4.44%	5.56%	4.44%	2.78%	2.78%	1.67%	21.67%
3	3.89%	7.22%	2.78%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	19.44%
4	0.56%	1.67%	2.78%	1.11%	—	—	6.11%
5+	—	—	1.67%	1.11%	—	2.22%	5.00%
Total	21.67%	26.11%	21.67%	19.44%	6.11%	5.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.38	1.38	1.75
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	-1	-1	-4

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	1.11	+1.06
SD	1.38	1.08	1.63
CV	0.64	0.97	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	-1	-1	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.50	-0.28
SD	1.00	1.20	1.45
CV	0.82	0.80	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.83	-0.44
SD	1.42	1.58	1.50
CV	1.02	0.86	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	-1	-1	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.56	+0.33
SD	1.49	1.04	1.94
CV	0.79	0.67	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	55.56%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.33	-0.33
SD	0.91	1.24	1.46
CV	0.91	0.93	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	50.00%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	2.56	-0.67
SD	1.49	1.29	1.94
CV	0.79	0.51	—
Max	5	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	16.67%	38.89%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.28	-0.17
SD	1.32	1.07	1.62
CV	1.19	0.84	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	1.83	+0.39
SD	1.48	1.38	2.09
CV	0.66	0.75	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.61	+0.00
SD	1.04	1.72	1.85
CV	0.64	1.07	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	—	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.78	+0.11
SD	1.71	1.73	1.71
CV	0.91	0.98	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	-1	-1	-3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	B 1909	20	16.15	+3.85
2	Skovshoved	18	15.77	+2.23
3	AB Gladsaxe	26	23.85	+2.15
4	Odense	20	17.90	+2.10
5	Koge BK	21	19.01	+1.99

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Aarhus GF	12	19.15	-7.15
2	Esbjerg	14	16.20	-2.20
3	Frem	16	17.88	-1.88
4	B 1903	16	17.52	-1.52
5	B.93	17	16.58	+0.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	B 1909	4	Mar 30 – Apr 14	1 in 64
2	B 1903	4	Apr 14 – May 1	1 in 63
3	AB Gladsaxe	6	Aug 26 – Oct 28	1 in 44
4	Skovshoved	4	Oct 28 – Mar 15	1 in 39
5	Koge BK	4	Aug 26 – Oct 6	1 in 32

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Aarhus GF	5	Oct 28 – Mar 16	1 in 146
2	B.93	5	Sep 23 – Nov 11	1 in 68
3	Esbjerg	4	Mar 30 – Apr 13	1 in 29
4	Skovshoved	4	Aug 26 – Sep 23	1 in 26
5	Koge BK	3	Apr 6 – Apr 14	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	AB Gladsaxe	13	Aug 26 – Apr 11	1 in 49
2	Skovshoved	6	Oct 7 – Mar 15	1 in 24
3	B.93	4	Mar 30 – Apr 14	1 in 14
4	Odense	5	Apr 6 – Apr 27	1 in 11
5	B 1909	4	Mar 30 – Apr 14	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	AB Gladsaxe	5	Mar 30 – Apr 20	1 in 71
2	B 1903	8	Sep 9 – Mar 16	1 in 38
3	Aarhus GF	6	Oct 14 – Mar 16	1 in 31
4	B.93	6	Sep 23 – Nov 25	1 in 15
5	Frem	5	Apr 11 – Apr 30	1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
AB Gladsaxe	58.31%	18.61%	9.62%	5.35%	3.52%	2.11%	1.26%	0.80%	0.33%	0.09%
Koge BK	9.80%	16.47%	14.42%	13.20%	10.71%	10.02%	8.20%	7.62%	5.83%	3.73%
B 1909	2.68%	6.17%	7.81%	9.20%	10.05%	10.46%	11.83%	13.44%	13.71%	14.65%
Odense	5.53%	11.25%	11.99%	11.50%	11.42%	10.89%	10.76%	9.91%	9.01%	7.74%
Skovshoved	1.48%	4.41%	6.28%	8.65%	9.72%	11.20%	13.02%	13.37%	15.19%	16.68%
B.93	2.53%	5.65%	7.80%	9.43%	10.19%	11.62%	12.04%	12.18%	13.79%	14.77%
Frem	5.03%	10.18%	11.96%	11.46%	11.29%	11.33%	10.70%	10.60%	9.15%	8.30%
B 1903	3.82%	8.06%	9.57%	10.70%	11.35%	11.63%	11.80%	11.52%	11.53%	10.02%
Esbjerg	1.95%	4.46%	6.44%	7.92%	9.64%	10.56%	11.43%	13.13%	15.45%	19.02%
Aarhus GF	8.87%	14.74%	14.11%	12.59%	12.11%	10.18%	8.96%	7.43%	6.01%	5.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

-13.33%

No Edge

34.44%17.78%47.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge: -46.60 Elo pts.

189 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

-0.19 goals

Neutral

-2-0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

58%

AB Gladsaxe, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Tight Race

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.96 * Some Luck: 2.96 to 4.44 * Lucky: 4.44 to 5.92 * Wild Swing: 5.92 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.87 * Close: 1.87 to 2.8 * Off: 2.8 to 3.74 * Way Off: 3.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.81 * A Surprise: 0.81 to 1.3 * Several Surprises: 1.3 to 1.78 * Many Surprises: 1.78 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.08 points

Some Luck

03.709

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.60

02.345

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

87.40%

B 1909

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.97%

Aarhus GF

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

A Surprise

00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.12

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.94

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

54%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

71%

Clear Edge

50%69%100%

Close Games

Expected

53%

Very Frequent

0%61%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Frequent

0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.15

Slight Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.69

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.18

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

38%

Upset-Prone

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Shaky Favorites

0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.16

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.61

Overconfident

0.4903481.001.50965

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.126

Well Within Noise

00.1620.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
AB Gladsaxe	99.91%	0.09%
Koge BK	96.27%	3.73%
Aarhus GF	95.00%	5.00%
Odense	92.26%	7.74%
Frem	91.70%	8.30%
B 1903	89.98%	10.02%
B 1909	85.35%	14.65%
B.93	85.23%	14.77%
Skovshoved	83.32%	16.68%
Esbjerg	80.98%	19.02%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1951-08-26	Skovshoved	FW	1541	1450	52.25%	19.85%	27.89%	+0.0	2
1951-08-26	@ AB Gladsaxe	FL	1450	1541	27.89%	19.85%	52.25%	+0.0	0
1951-08-26	Esbjerg	D 2-2	1430	1440	38.43%	20.26%	41.32%	+0.0	1
1951-08-26	@ B 1909	D 2-2	1440	1430	41.32%	20.26%	38.43%	-0.0	1
1951-08-26	B 1903	D 0-0	1451	1458	38.75%	20.26%	40.99%	+0.1	1
1951-08-26	@ B.93	D 0-0	1458	1451	40.99%	20.26%	38.75%	-0.1	1
1951-08-26	Odense	L 1-2	1462	1459	40.30%	20.26%	39.44%	-3.4	0
1951-08-26	@ Frem	W 2-1	1459	1462	39.44%	20.26%	40.30%	+3.4	2
1951-08-26	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1471	1490	37.19%	20.24%	42.57%	+3.5	2
1951-08-26	@ Koge BK	L 1-2	1490	1471	42.57%	20.24%	37.19%	-3.5	0
1951-08-29	B 1903	FL	1450	1458	38.63%	20.26%	41.12%	+0.0	0
1951-08-29	@ Skovshoved	FW	1458	1450	41.12%	20.26%	38.63%	+0.0	3
1951-09-08	B.93	L 2-3	1450	1451	39.73%	20.26%	40.01%	-3.2	0
1951-09-08	@ Skovshoved	W 3-2	1451	1450	40.01%	20.26%	39.73%	+3.2	3
1951-09-09	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1440	1541	26.76%	19.76%	53.48%	-4.1	1
1951-09-09	@ Esbjerg	W 3-1	1541	1440	53.48%	19.76%	26.76%	+4.1	4
1951-09-09	Koge BK	L 0-2	1458	1474	37.59%	20.25%	42.16%	-6.4	3
1951-09-09	@ B 1903	W 2-0	1474	1458	42.16%	20.25%	37.59%	+6.4	4
1951-09-09	Aarhus GF	D 0-0	1459	1486	35.99%	20.22%	43.79%	+0.2	1
1951-09-09	@ Frem	D 0-0	1486	1459	43.79%	20.22%	35.99%	-0.2	1
1951-09-09	B 1909	D 0-0	1462	1430	44.50%	20.21%	35.30%	-0.2	3
1951-09-09	@ Odense	D 0-0	1430	1462	35.30%	20.21%	44.50%	+0.2	2
1951-09-22	Frem	W 2-0	1545	1459	51.62%	19.90%	28.48%	+5.1	6
1951-09-22	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-2	1459	1545	28.48%	19.90%	51.62%	-5.1	1
1951-09-23	B 1909	W 2-0	1486	1430	47.70%	20.11%	32.19%	+5.6	3
1951-09-23	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-2	1430	1486	32.19%	20.11%	47.70%	-5.6	2
1951-09-23	Esbjerg	L 0-1	1454	1436	42.46%	20.24%	37.29%	-3.7	3
1951-09-23	@ B.93	W 1-0	1436	1454	37.29%	20.24%	42.46%	+3.7	3
1951-09-23	Skovshoved	W 5-2	1481	1446	44.72%	20.20%	35.08%	+6.4	6
1951-09-23	@ Koge BK	L 2-5	1446	1481	35.08%	20.20%	44.72%	-6.4	0
1951-09-23	B 1903	D 3-3	1462	1452	41.34%	20.26%	38.40%	-0.0	4
1951-09-23	@ Odense	D 3-3	1452	1462	38.40%	20.26%	41.34%	+0.0	4
1951-10-06	Koge BK	L 1-2	1450	1487	34.70%	20.19%	45.11%	-3.0	3
1951-10-06	@ B.93	W 2-1	1487	1450	45.11%	20.19%	34.70%	+3.0	8
1951-10-07	B 1903	W 3-0	1492	1452	45.47%	20.18%	34.35%	+8.6	5
1951-10-07	@ Aarhus GF	L 0-3	1452	1492	34.35%	20.18%	45.47%	-8.6	4
1951-10-07	Odense	W 4-1	1550	1462	51.83%	19.88%	28.29%	+6.2	8
1951-10-07	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-4	1462	1550	28.29%	19.88%	51.83%	-6.2	4
1951-10-07	Frem	L 0-2	1424	1454	35.74%	20.22%	44.04%	-6.1	2
1951-10-07	@ B 1909	W 2-0	1454	1424	44.04%	20.22%	35.74%	+6.1	3
1951-10-07	Skovshoved	L 3-4	1439	1440	39.76%	20.26%	39.98%	-3.1	3
1951-10-07	@ Esbjerg	W 4-3	1440	1439	39.98%	20.26%	39.76%	+3.1	2
1951-10-13	AB Gladsaxe	L 2-4	1443	1556	25.45%	19.64%	54.90%	-3.6	4
1951-10-13	@ B 1903	W 4-2	1556	1443	54.90%	19.64%	25.45%	+3.6	10
1951-10-14	B 1909	L 1-3	1447	1418	43.96%	20.22%	35.82%	-6.3	3
1951-10-14	@ B.93	W 3-1	1418	1447	35.82%	20.22%	43.96%	+6.3	4
1951-10-14	Frem	L 0-1	1436	1460	36.54%	20.23%	43.23%	-3.3	3
1951-10-14	@ Esbjerg	W 1-0	1460	1436	43.23%	20.23%	36.54%	+3.3	5
1951-10-14	Odense	L 1-3	1490	1456	44.69%	20.20%	35.10%	-6.4	8
1951-10-14	@ Koge BK	W 3-1	1456	1490	35.10%	20.20%	44.69%	+6.4	6
1951-10-14	Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1443	1500	32.07%	20.10%	47.83%	+0.3	3
1951-10-14	@ Skovshoved	D 1-1	1500	1443	47.83%	20.10%	32.07%	-0.3	6
1951-10-27	Frem	L 0-1	1440	1463	36.57%	20.23%	43.19%	-3.3	4
1951-10-27	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1463	1440	43.19%	20.23%	36.57%	+3.3	7
1951-10-28	Skovshoved	L 1-2	1424	1443	37.18%	20.24%	42.58%	-3.2	4
1951-10-28	@ B 1909	W 2-1	1443	1424	42.58%	20.24%	37.18%	+3.2	5
1951-10-28	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1441	1560	24.79%	19.58%	55.63%	-3.9	3
1951-10-28	@ B.93	W 3-1	1560	1441	55.63%	19.58%	24.79%	+3.9	12
1951-10-28	Koge BK	L 2-4	1433	1484	32.88%	20.13%	46.99%	-4.4	3
1951-10-28	@ Esbjerg	W 4-2	1484	1433	46.99%	20.13%	32.88%	+4.4	10
1951-10-28	Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1462	1500	34.63%	20.19%	45.18%	+3.9	8
1951-10-28	@ Odense	L 0-1	1500	1462	45.18%	20.19%	34.63%	-3.9	6
1951-11-11	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1496	1429	49.21%	20.04%	30.75%	-6.9	6
1951-11-11	@ Aarhus GF	W 3-1	1429	1496	30.75%	20.04%	49.21%	+6.9	5
1951-11-11	B 1909	L 1-3	1437	1421	42.04%	20.25%	37.71%	-6.0	4
1951-11-11	@ B 1903	W 3-1	1421	1437	37.71%	20.25%	42.04%	+6.1	6
1951-11-11	Skovshoved	L 0-1	1467	1447	42.70%	20.24%	37.06%	-3.8	7
1951-11-11	@ Frem	W 1-0	1447	1467	37.06%	20.24%	42.70%	+3.8	7
1951-11-11	AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1488	1564	29.78%	19.98%	50.24%	+0.3	11
1951-11-11	@ Koge BK	D 2-2	1564	1488	50.24%	19.98%	29.78%	-0.3	13
1951-11-11	B.93	W 2-0	1466	1437	44.04%	20.22%	35.74%	+6.1	10
1951-11-11	@ Odense	L 0-2	1437	1466	35.74%	20.22%	44.04%	-6.1	3
1951-11-25	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1563	1489	50.08%	19.99%	29.93%	+2.6	15
1951-11-25	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 1-2	1489	1563	29.93%	19.99%	50.08%	-2.6	6
1951-11-25	Koge BK	W 3-2	1427	1489	31.55%	20.08%	48.37%	+3.7	8
1951-11-25	@ B 1909	L 2-3	1489	1427	48.37%	20.08%	31.55%	-3.7	11
1951-11-25	Odense	W 4-3	1435	1472	34.71%	20.19%	45.10%	+3.4	7
1951-11-25	@ Esbjerg	L 3-4	1472	1435	45.10%	20.19%	34.71%	-3.4	10
1951-11-25	B.93	D 1-1	1463	1431	44.39%	20.21%	35.39%	-0.2	8
1951-11-25	@ Frem	D 1-1	1431	1463	35.39%	20.21%	44.39%	+0.2	4
1951-12-02	B.93	L 0-1	1487	1431	47.62%	20.11%	32.27%	-4.1	6
1951-12-02	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1431	1487	32.27%	20.11%	47.62%	+4.1	6
1951-12-02	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1431	1566	23.14%	19.39%	57.48%	-3.6	8
1951-12-02	@ B 1909	W 3-1	1566	1431	57.48%	19.39%	23.14%	+3.7	17
1951-12-02	Esbjerg	D 3-3	1430	1439	38.67%	20.26%	41.07%	+0.0	5
1951-12-02	@ B 1903	D 3-3	1439	1430	41.07%	20.26%	38.67%	-0.0	8
1951-12-02	Frem	L 2-3	1485	1463	43.03%	20.24%	36.73%	-3.4	11
1951-12-02	@ Koge BK	W 3-2	1463	1485	36.73%	20.24%	43.03%	+3.4	10
1951-12-02	Odense	W 5-2	1450	1469	37.23%	20.24%	42.53%	+7.5	9
1951-12-02	@ Skovshoved	L 2-5	1469	1450	42.53%	20.24%	37.23%	-7.5	10
1952-03-15	Skovshoved	L 1-4	1435	1458	36.65%	20.24%	43.11%	-7.7	6
1952-03-15	@ B.93	W 4-1	1458	1435	43.11%	20.24%	36.65%	+7.7	11
1952-03-16	Koge BK	L 0-1	1482	1481	40.01%	20.26%	39.72%	-3.6	6
1952-03-16	@ Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1481	1482	39.72%	20.26%	40.01%	+3.6	13
1952-03-16	B 1909	W 3-0	1570	1427	58.30%	19.29%	22.41%	+6.0	19
1952-03-16	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-3	1427	1570	22.41%	19.29%	58.30%	-5.9	8
1952-03-16	B 1903	W 3-1	1439	1431	41.06%	20.26%	38.68%	+5.7	10
1952-03-16	@ Esbjerg	L 1-3	1431	1439	38.68%	20.26%	41.06%	-5.6	5
1952-03-16	Frem	W 2-1	1462	1466	39.24%	20.26%	40.50%	+3.4	12
1952-03-16	@ Odense	L 1-2	1466	1462	40.50%	20.26%	39.24%	-3.4	10
1952-03-29	Skovshoved	W 2-1	1425	1466	34.22%	20.18%	45.60%	+3.7	7
1952-03-29	@ B 1903	L 1-2	1466	1425	45.60%	20.18%	34.22%	-3.7	11
1952-03-30	B.93	D 2-2	1576	1427	58.96%	19.21%	21.83%	-0.6	20
1952-03-30	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 2-2	1427	1576	21.83%	19.21%	58.96%	+0.5	7
1952-03-30	Aarhus GF	L 1-3	1444	1479	35.06%	20.20%	44.73%	-5.2	10
1952-03-30	@ Esbjerg	W 3-1	1479	1444	44.73%	20.20%	35.06%	+5.2	8
1952-03-30	B 1909	L 0-3	1463	1422	45.65%	20.18%	34.17%	-10.8	10
1952-03-30	@ Frem	W 3-0	1422	1463	34.17%	20.18%	45.65%	+10.8	10
1952-03-30	Koge BK	L 1-4	1465	1485	37.03%	20.24%	42.73%	-7.7	12
1952-03-30	@ Odense	W 4-1	1485	1465	42.73%	20.24%	37.03%	+7.7	15
1952-04-05	B 1903	D 1-1	1575	1429	58.77%	19.23%	22.00%	-0.7	21
1952-04-05	@ AB Gladsaxe	D 1-1	1429	1575	22.00%	19.23%	58.77%	+0.7	8
1952-04-06	Aarhus GF	W 1-0	1428	1484	32.20%	20.11%	47.70%	+4.1	9
1952-04-06	@ B.93	L 0-1	1484	1428	47.70%	20.11%	32.20%	-4.1	8
1952-04-06	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1452	1439	41.65%	20.25%	38.10%	+9.4	12
1952-04-06	@ Frem	L 0-3	1439	1452	38.10%	20.25%	41.65%	-9.4	10
1952-04-06	B 1909	L 2-4	1493	1432	48.26%	20.08%	31.66%	-6.1	15
1952-04-06	@ Koge BK	W 4-2	1432	1493	31.66%	20.08%	48.26%	+6.1	12
1952-04-06	Skovshoved	D 0-0	1457	1462	39.22%	20.26%	40.52%	+0.0	13
1952-04-06	@ Odense	D 0-0	1462	1457	40.52%	20.26%	39.22%	-0.0	12
1952-04-10	Odense	D 1-1	1480	1457	43.11%	20.24%	36.66%	-0.1	9
1952-04-10	@ Aarhus GF	D 1-1	1457	1480	36.66%	20.24%	43.11%	+0.1	14
1952-04-10	B 1909	L 2-5	1430	1438	38.65%	20.26%	41.09%	-6.9	10
1952-04-10	@ Esbjerg	W 5-2	1438	1430	41.09%	20.26%	38.65%	+6.9	14
1952-04-10	B.93	L 0-1	1429	1432	39.47%	20.26%	40.27%	-3.5	8
1952-04-10	@ B 1903	W 1-0	1432	1429	40.27%	20.26%	39.47%	+3.5	11
1952-04-10	Koge BK	W 3-1	1462	1487	36.36%	20.23%	43.41%	+6.2	14
1952-04-10	@ Skovshoved	L 1-3	1487	1462	43.41%	20.23%	36.36%	-6.2	15
1952-04-11	AB Gladsaxe	D 0-0	1461	1574	25.41%	19.64%	54.95%	+0.7	13
1952-04-11	@ Frem	D 0-0	1574	1461	54.95%	19.64%	25.41%	-0.6	22
1952-04-13	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1457	1423	44.73%	20.20%	35.06%	+8.8	16
1952-04-13	@ Odense	L 0-3	1423	1457	35.06%	20.20%	44.73%	-8.8	10
1952-04-14	Aarhus GF	W 2-1	1445	1480	35.05%	20.20%	44.75%	+3.7	16
1952-04-14	@ B 1909	L 1-2	1480	1445	44.75%	20.20%	35.05%	-3.7	9
1952-04-14	B 1903	L 0-2	1462	1426	44.94%	20.20%	34.86%	-7.4	13
1952-04-14	@ Frem	W 2-0	1426	1462	34.86%	20.20%	44.94%	+7.4	10
1952-04-14	B.93	L 0-1	1480	1436	46.17%	20.16%	33.67%	-4.0	15
1952-04-14	@ Koge BK	W 1-0	1436	1480	33.67%	20.16%	46.17%	+4.0	13
1952-04-14	AB Gladsaxe	W 3-2	1468	1574	26.24%	19.72%	54.04%	+4.1	16
1952-04-14	@ Skovshoved	L 2-3	1574	1468	54.04%	19.72%	26.24%	-4.1	22
1952-04-19	Odense	L 0-2	1440	1466	36.14%	20.23%	43.64%	-6.2	13
1952-04-19	@ B.93	W 2-0	1466	1440	43.64%	20.23%	36.14%	+6.2	18
1952-04-19	Koge BK	L 0-2	1454	1476	36.75%	20.24%	43.01%	-6.3	13
1952-04-19	@ Frem	W 2-0	1476	1454	43.01%	20.24%	36.75%	+6.3	17
1952-04-20	Skovshoved	D 2-2	1476	1472	40.46%	20.26%	39.28%	-0.0	10
1952-04-20	@ Aarhus GF	D 2-2	1472	1476	39.28%	20.26%	40.46%	+0.0	17
1952-04-20	Esbjerg	L 1-3	1570	1414	59.74%	19.11%	21.15%	-8.2	22
1952-04-20	@ AB Gladsaxe	W 3-1	1414	1570	21.15%	19.11%	59.74%	+8.2	12
1952-04-20	B 1903	L 2-3	1449	1433	42.13%	20.25%	37.62%	-3.3	16
1952-04-20	@ B 1909	W 3-2	1433	1449	37.62%	20.25%	42.13%	+3.3	12
1952-04-23	B.93	W 1-0	1446	1433	41.63%	20.25%	38.12%	+3.4	18
1952-04-23	@ B 1909	L 0-1	1433	1446	38.12%	20.25%	41.63%	-3.4	13
1952-04-23	Esbjerg	W 3-0	1483	1422	48.25%	20.08%	31.67%	+8.0	19
1952-04-23	@ Koge BK	L 0-3	1422	1483	31.67%	20.08%	48.25%	-8.0	12
1952-04-23	Frem	D 3-3	1472	1448	43.28%	20.23%	36.48%	-0.1	18
1952-04-23	@ Skovshoved	D 3-3	1448	1472	36.48%	20.23%	43.28%	+0.1	14
1952-04-27	Koge BK	W 4-0	1561	1491	49.62%	20.02%	30.37%	+10.1	24
1952-04-27	@ AB Gladsaxe	L 0-4	1491	1561	30.37%	20.02%	49.62%	-10.1	19
1952-04-27	Odense	L 1-2	1449	1472	36.60%	20.23%	43.17%	-3.1	18
1952-04-27	@ B 1909	W 2-1	1472	1449	43.17%	20.23%	36.60%	+3.1	20
1952-04-27	Aarhus GF	W 4-2	1437	1476	34.35%	20.18%	45.46%	+5.8	14
1952-04-27	@ B 1903	L 2-4	1476	1437	45.46%	20.18%	34.35%	-5.8	10
1952-04-27	Esbjerg	L 3-5	1472	1414	47.89%	20.10%	32.01%	-5.7	18
1952-04-27	@ Skovshoved	W 5-3	1414	1472	32.01%	20.10%	47.89%	+5.7	14
1952-04-30	Frem	W 1-0	1430	1448	37.29%	20.24%	42.46%	+3.7	15
1952-04-30	@ B.93	L 0-1	1448	1430	42.46%	20.24%	37.29%	-3.7	14
1952-05-01	AB Gladsaxe	W 2-1	1470	1572	26.76%	19.76%	53.48%	+4.3	12
1952-05-01	@ Aarhus GF	L 1-2	1572	1470	53.48%	19.76%	26.76%	-4.3	24
1952-05-01	Odense	W 1-0	1442	1475	35.23%	20.21%	44.56%	+3.9	16
1952-05-01	@ B 1903	L 0-1	1475	1442	44.56%	20.21%	35.23%	-3.9	20
1952-05-04	Frem	L 2-4	1475	1444	44.16%	20.22%	35.62%	-5.6	12
1952-05-04	@ Aarhus GF	W 4-2	1444	1475	35.62%	20.22%	44.16%	+5.6	16
1952-05-04	B.93	L 1-3	1420	1434	37.93%	20.25%	41.82%	-5.6	14
1952-05-04	@ Esbjerg	W 3-1	1434	1420	41.82%	20.25%	37.93%	+5.6	17
1952-05-04	B 1903	W 5-3	1481	1446	44.74%	20.20%	35.06%	+4.4	21
1952-05-04	@ Koge BK	L 3-5	1446	1481	35.06%	20.20%	44.74%	-4.4	16
1952-05-04	AB Gladsaxe	L 1-3	1472	1567	27.38%	19.81%	52.81%	-4.2	20
1952-05-04	@ Odense	W 3-1	1567	1472	52.81%	19.81%	27.38%	+4.2	26
1952-05-04	B 1909	L 0-3	1466	1446	42.76%	20.24%	36.99%	-10.3	18
1952-05-04	@ Skovshoved	W 3-0	1446	1466	36.99%	20.24%	42.76%	+10.3	20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1952-04-20	21.15%	Esbjerg	1414	3	@ AB Gladsaxe	1570	1
2	1952-04-14	26.24%	@ Skovshoved	1468	3	AB Gladsaxe	1574	2
3	1952-05-01	26.76%	@ Aarhus GF	1470	2	AB Gladsaxe	1572	1
4	1951-11-11	30.75%	Esbjerg	1429	3	@ Aarhus GF	1496	1
5	1951-11-25	31.55%	@ B 1909	1427	3	Koge BK	1489	2
6	1952-04-06	31.66%	B 1909	1432	4	@ Koge BK	1493	2
7	1952-04-27	32.01%	Esbjerg	1414	5	@ Skovshoved	1472	3
8	1952-04-06	32.20%	@ B.93	1428	1	Aarhus GF	1484	0
9	1951-12-02	32.27%	B.93	1431	1	@ Aarhus GF	1487	0
10	1952-04-14	33.67%	B.93	1436	1	@ Koge BK	1480	0
11	1952-03-30	34.17%	B 1909	1422	3	@ Frem	1463	0
12	1952-03-29	34.22%	@ B 1903	1425	2	Skovshoved	1466	1
13	1952-04-27	34.35%	@ B 1903	1437	4	Aarhus GF	1476	2
14	1951-10-28	34.63%	@ Odense	1462	1	Aarhus GF	1500	0
15	1951-11-25	34.71%	@ Esbjerg	1435	4	Odense	1472	3
16	1952-04-14	34.86%	B 1903	1426	2	@ Frem	1462	0
17	1952-04-14	35.05%	@ B 1909	1445	2	Aarhus GF	1480	1
18	1951-10-14	35.10%	Odense	1456	3	@ Koge BK	1490	1
19	1952-05-01	35.23%	@ B 1903	1442	1	Odense	1475	0
20	1952-05-04	35.62%	Frem	1444	4	@ Aarhus GF	1475	2
21	1951-10-14	35.82%	B 1909	1418	3	@ B.93	1447	1
22	1952-04-10	36.36%	@ Skovshoved	1462	3	Koge BK	1487	1
23	1951-12-02	36.73%	Frem	1463	3	@ Koge BK	1485	2
24	1952-05-04	36.99%	B 1909	1446	3	@ Skovshoved	1466	0
25	1951-11-11	37.06%	Skovshoved	1447	1	@ Frem	1467	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1952-03-30	10.85	B 1909	3	1422	34.17%	@ Frem	0	1463	45.65%	20.18%
2	1952-05-04	10.28	B 1909	3	1446	36.99%	@ Skovshoved	0	1466	42.76%	20.24%
3	1952-04-27	10.14	@ AB Gladsaxe	4	1561	49.62%	Koge BK	0	1491	30.37%	20.02%
4	1952-04-06	9.36	@ Frem	3	1452	41.65%	Esbjerg	0	1439	38.10%	20.25%
5	1952-04-13	8.75	@ Odense	3	1457	44.73%	Esbjerg	0	1423	35.06%	20.20%
6	1951-10-07	8.60	@ Aarhus GF	3	1492	45.47%	B 1903	0	1452	34.35%	20.18%
7	1952-04-20	8.22	Esbjerg	3	1414	21.15%	@ AB Gladsaxe	1	1570	59.74%	19.11%
8	1952-04-23	8.05	@ Koge BK	3	1483	48.25%	Esbjerg	0	1422	31.67%	20.08%
9	1952-03-30	7.72	Koge BK	4	1485	42.73%	@ Odense	1	1465	37.03%	20.24%
10	1952-03-15	7.66	Skovshoved	4	1458	43.11%	@ B.93	1	1435	36.65%	20.24%
11	1951-12-02	7.47	@ Skovshoved	5	1450	37.23%	Odense	2	1469	42.53%	20.24%
12	1952-04-14	7.38	B 1903	2	1426	34.86%	@ Frem	0	1462	44.94%	20.20%
13	1952-04-10	6.92	B 1909	5	1438	41.09%	@ Esbjerg	2	1430	38.65%	20.26%
14	1951-11-11	6.90	Esbjerg	3	1429	30.75%	@ Aarhus GF	1	1496	49.21%	20.04%
15	1951-09-23	6.39	@ Koge BK	5	1481	44.72%	Skovshoved	2	1446	35.08%	20.20%
16	1951-09-09	6.38	Koge BK	2	1474	42.16%	@ B 1903	0	1458	37.59%	20.25%
17	1951-10-14	6.36	Odense	3	1456	35.10%	@ Koge BK	1	1490	44.69%	20.20%
18	1951-10-14	6.27	B 1909	3	1418	35.82%	@ B.93	1	1447	43.96%	20.22%
19	1952-04-19	6.26	Koge BK	2	1476	43.01%	@ Frem	0	1454	36.75%	20.24%
20	1952-04-10	6.20	@ Skovshoved	3	1462	36.36%	Koge BK	1	1487	43.41%	20.23%
21	1952-04-19	6.18	Odense	2	1466	43.64%	@ B.93	0	1440	36.14%	20.23%
22	1951-10-07	6.17	@ AB Gladsaxe	4	1550	51.83%	Odense	1	1462	28.29%	19.88%
23	1951-10-07	6.12	Frem	2	1454	44.04%	@ B 1909	0	1424	35.74%	20.22%
24	1951-11-11	6.12	@ Odense	2	1466	44.04%	B.93	0	1437	35.74%	20.22%
25	1952-04-06	6.07	B 1909	4	1432	31.66%	@ Koge BK	2	1493	48.26%	20.08%