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2025-26 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Lyngby

60 pts

Horsens · 54 pts

Relegated

Middlefart BK

15 pts

B.93 · 37 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

23.44 points above expected

52 points · 28.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Middlefart BK

10.05 points below expected

15 points · 25.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lyngby 22 12 6 4 42 49 25 +24 39.00 +3.00
2 Hvidovre 22 10 9 3 39 34 23 +11 32.37 +6.63
3 Hillerod 22 10 7 5 37 33 29 +4 34.20 +2.80
4 Esbjerg 22 11 4 7 37 32 29 +3 28.56 +8.44
5 Kolding IF 22 9 6 7 33 29 23 +6 34.56 -1.56
6 Horsens 22 8 6 8 30 26 24 +2 33.82 -3.82
7 Aalborg 22 7 7 8 28 33 31 +2 33.33 -5.33
8 B.93 22 8 4 10 28 26 36 -10 25.38 +2.62
9 Aarhus Fremad 22 6 9 7 27 32 27 +5 29.34 -2.34
10 Hobro 22 6 7 9 25 22 31 -9 25.09 -0.09
11 HB Koge 22 5 5 12 20 26 41 -15 23.39 -3.39
12 Middlefart BK 22 2 6 14 12 21 44 -23 25.05 -13.05
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lyngby Promoted 32 18 6 8 60 69 36 +33 — —
2 Horsens Promoted 32 15 9 8 54 42 27 +15 — —
3 Esbjerg 32 15 7 10 52 45 43 +2 — —
4 Hillerod 32 13 11 8 50 42 43 -1 — —
5 Hvidovre 32 11 13 8 46 43 39 +4 — —
6 Kolding IF 32 10 8 14 38 37 40 -3 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aalborg 32 12 10 10 46 50 47 +3 — —
2 Aarhus Fremad 32 11 11 10 44 52 37 +15 — —
3 Hobro 32 11 9 12 42 40 43 -3 — —
4 HB Koge 32 11 7 14 40 42 48 -6 — —
5 B.93 Relegated 32 10 7 15 37 44 58 -14 — —
6 Middlefart BK Relegated 32 3 6 23 15 32 77 -45 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyngby 1689 60 39.00 +21.00 71.2% 17 29 35 39 43 49 60
Horsens 1646 54 33.82 +20.18 29.5% 12 24 30 34 38 44 56
Aarhus Fremad 1576 44 29.34 +14.66 38.8% 11 19 25 29 33 39 53
Esbjerg 1568 52 28.56 +23.44 92.9% 9 19 24 29 33 39 52
Hvidovre 1540 46 32.37 +13.63 87.7% 13 23 28 32 36 42 55
Hillerod 1530 50 34.20 +15.80 70.8% 11 24 30 34 38 44 55
Kolding IF 1517 38 34.56 +3.44 43.2% 14 25 30 35 39 45 59
Aalborg 1504 46 33.33 +12.67 21.4% 13 23 29 33 37 43 54
Hobro 1501 42 25.09 +16.91 53.6% 6 15 21 25 29 35 46
HB Koge 1473 40 23.39 +16.61 31.9% 4 14 19 23 27 33 47
B.93 1414 37 25.38 +11.62 71.0% 7 16 21 25 29 35 48
Middlefart BK 1277 15 25.05 -10.05 1.2% 7 16 21 25 29 35 50

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL AF B.9 ESB HK HIL HOB HOR HVI KI LYN MB
Aalborg —
1-0-3
6.22
2-2-0
7.39
0-1-1
2.78
3-1-0
6.76
0-2-0
2.56
1-2-1
6.58
0-1-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.80
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
2.33
3-0-1
7.68
Aarhus Fremad
3-0-1
4.80
 —
2-1-1
6.87
0-1-1
3.26
0-2-2
6.41
1-0-1
2.20
2-0-2
6.05
0-2-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.08
0-1-1
1.99
3-1-0
7.12
B.93
0-2-2
3.67
1-1-2
4.17
 —
0-0-2
2.79
2-0-2
5.30
1-0-1
1.92
1-1-2
5.01
2-0-0
1.94
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.02
0-1-1
1.78
3-1-0
6.42
Esbjerg
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.26
2-0-0
2.72
 —
2-0-0
3.45
0-3-1
5.09
0-1-1
3.13
1-0-3
4.76
4-0-0
4.58
1-1-2
4.69
1-0-3
3.60
2-0-0
2.96
HB Koge
0-1-3
4.28
2-2-0
4.62
2-0-2
5.72
0-0-2
2.07
 —
0-1-1
1.87
2-1-1
5.02
2-0-0
1.75
0-0-2
1.89
1-0-1
1.99
0-1-1
1.33
2-1-1
6.34
Hillerod
0-2-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.31
1-0-1
3.61
1-3-0
5.92
1-1-0
3.66
 —
1-0-1
3.63
1-1-2
5.72
1-2-1
5.58
1-2-1
5.80
3-0-1
3.87
2-0-0
3.31
Hobro
1-2-1
4.45
2-0-2
4.96
2-1-1
6.02
1-1-0
2.38
1-1-2
5.99
1-0-1
1.89
 —
0-1-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
1.80
3-1-0
6.84
Horsens
1-1-0
2.85
0-2-0
3.01
0-0-2
3.59
3-0-1
6.26
0-0-2
3.79
2-1-1
5.29
1-1-0
3.53
 —
0-3-1
5.60
4-0-0
5.63
2-1-1
4.09
2-0-0
3.27
Hvidovre
0-1-1
2.70
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.34
0-0-4
6.44
2-0-0
3.64
1-2-1
5.44
1-1-0
3.25
1-3-0
5.41
 —
2-2-0
5.65
1-1-2
4.08
1-1-0
3.57
Kolding IF
2-0-0
2.55
0-2-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.50
2-1-1
6.33
1-0-1
3.53
1-2-1
5.22
1-1-0
3.54
0-0-4
5.40
0-2-2
5.37
 —
0-0-4
4.09
1-0-1
3.61
Lyngby
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.75
3-0-1
7.46
1-1-0
4.23
1-0-3
7.17
2-0-0
3.73
1-1-2
6.95
2-1-1
6.96
4-0-0
6.96
 —
1-1-0
3.98
Middlefart BK
1-0-3
3.41
0-1-3
3.95
0-1-3
4.60
0-0-2
2.56
1-1-2
4.69
0-0-2
2.20
0-1-3
4.21
0-0-2
2.25
0-1-1
1.95
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
1.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.48 +8.5
Allowed 0.75 -7.8
Differential 0.86 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%8.59%5.47%2.86%1.56%0.78%25.52%
18.59%10.94%7.55%4.43%1.56%0.78%33.85%
25.47%7.55%7.29%2.08%0.52%0.26%23.18%
32.86%4.43%2.08%2.60%——11.98%
41.56%1.56%0.52%———3.65%
5+0.78%0.78%0.26%———1.82%
Total25.52%33.85%23.18%11.98%3.65%1.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.80
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
16.25%15.62%3.12%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
23.12%6.25%9.38%———18.75%
33.12%3.12%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total21.88%37.50%25.00%9.38%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.47 +0.09
SD 1.37 1.29 2.02
CV 0.87 0.88 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%12.50%———34.38%
16.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
2——12.50%———12.50%
36.25%9.38%—3.12%——18.75%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%6.25%————9.38%
Total28.12%34.38%31.25%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.16 +0.47
SD 1.64 0.92 1.93
CV 1.01 0.80 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%3.12%9.38%——18.75%
112.50%9.38%6.25%9.38%—3.12%40.62%
23.12%9.38%9.38%9.38%——31.25%
3———3.12%——3.12%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total15.62%28.12%21.88%31.25%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.81 -0.44
SD 1.04 1.23 1.64
CV 0.76 0.68 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%12.50%3.12%—3.12%28.12%
115.62%15.62%3.12%—3.12%—37.50%
2—9.38%3.12%———12.50%
33.12%3.12%6.25%———12.50%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total21.88%40.62%28.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.34 +0.06
SD 1.36 1.15 1.92
CV 0.97 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%9.38%—3.12%—28.12%
13.12%9.38%6.25%9.38%——28.12%
29.38%12.50%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
3——6.25%3.12%——9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%34.38%28.12%15.62%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.50 -0.19
SD 1.09 1.08 1.62
CV 0.83 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%15.62%—12.50%——34.38%
23.12%25.00%6.25%———34.38%
33.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.88%46.88%9.38%18.75%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.34 -0.03
SD 0.93 1.12 1.53
CV 0.71 0.84 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%9.38%——25.00%
115.62%15.62%9.38%—6.25%—46.88%
212.50%—3.12%———15.62%
3——3.12%6.25%——9.38%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%18.75%15.62%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.34 -0.09
SD 1.24 1.29 1.91
CV 1.00 0.96 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%6.25%——3.12%—28.12%
118.75%6.25%9.38%3.12%——37.50%
29.38%3.12%—3.12%——15.62%
33.12%6.25%—3.12%——12.50%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+———————
Total53.12%25.00%9.38%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 0.84 +0.47
SD 1.20 1.14 1.61
CV 0.92 1.35 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
16.25%21.88%9.38%3.12%3.12%—43.75%
26.25%9.38%9.38%———25.00%
3—9.38%————9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total25.00%43.75%21.88%3.12%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.22 +0.12
SD 1.00 1.07 1.58
CV 0.75 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
19.38%12.50%9.38%9.38%——40.62%
23.12%6.25%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
39.38%3.12%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%34.38%21.88%15.62%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.25 -0.09
SD 0.99 1.05 1.57
CV 0.85 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
1—3.12%12.50%———15.62%
215.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
36.25%12.50%3.12%6.25%——28.12%
43.12%6.25%————9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%34.38%25.00%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 1.12 +1.03
SD 1.27 0.98 1.73
CV 0.59 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%15.62%6.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%37.50%
13.12%—15.62%—6.25%3.12%28.12%
2—3.12%15.62%3.12%6.25%3.12%31.25%
3—3.12%————3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%21.88%37.50%6.25%18.75%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.41 -1.41
SD 0.92 1.50 1.70
CV 0.92 0.62 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 52 28.56 +23.44
2 Lyngby 60 39.00 +21.00
3 Horsens 54 33.82 +20.18
4 Hobro 42 25.09 +16.91
5 HB Koge 40 23.39 +16.61

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Middlefart BK 15 25.05 -10.05
2 Kolding IF 38 34.56 +3.44
3 B.93 37 25.38 +11.62
4 Aalborg 46 33.33 +12.67
5 Hvidovre 46 32.37 +13.63

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HB Koge 4 Apr 6 – Apr 22 1 in 84
2 Hvidovre 3 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 25
3 Hobro 3 Mar 14 – Apr 3 1 in 21
4 Aarhus Fremad 3 Aug 29 – Sep 20 1 in 19
5 Esbjerg 3 Oct 25 – Nov 10 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Middlefart BK 10 Feb 28 – May 1 1 in 404
2 B.93 5 Mar 21 – Apr 23 1 in 42
3 Kolding IF 4 Apr 11 – Apr 25 1 in 34
4 Lyngby 2 May 25 – May 31 1 in 21
5 Horsens 2 Aug 31 – Sep 13 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Horsens 10 Apr 4 – May 31 1 in 195
2 HB Koge 9 Mar 21 – May 16 1 in 176
3 Hvidovre 10 Aug 29 – Nov 20 1 in 101
4 Esbjerg 8 Nov 29 – Apr 17 1 in 67
5 Aarhus Fremad 6 Aug 20 – Sep 28 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aarhus Fremad 8 Sep 28 – Nov 30 1 in 75
2 Aalborg 7 Nov 9 – Mar 21 1 in 42
3 Kolding IF 8 Apr 3 – May 15 1 in 28
4 Hvidovre 6 Apr 25 – May 31 1 in 19
5 Horsens 5 Nov 30 – Mar 21 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Lyngby39.67%20.12%13.64%8.65%6.35%4.21%3.17%1.95%1.08%0.65%0.33%0.18%
Horsens10.90%12.97%13.43%13.13%11.04%10.13%8.38%7.06%5.27%3.88%2.52%1.29%
Esbjerg2.21%3.90%5.97%7.63%9.42%10.19%10.76%12.20%11.64%10.90%8.52%6.66%
Hillerod11.97%14.66%13.18%12.83%11.84%9.97%8.11%6.42%4.65%3.44%1.97%0.96%
Hvidovre7.85%10.44%12.06%12.15%11.69%11.22%10.08%8.05%6.49%4.71%3.57%1.69%
Aalborg9.11%12.33%12.61%12.33%11.98%10.96%9.44%7.12%5.75%4.39%2.43%1.55%
Aarhus Fremad3.24%5.19%6.99%8.86%9.43%10.34%11.25%11.79%11.13%9.21%7.56%5.01%
Hobro0.63%1.48%2.05%3.30%4.64%6.17%8.54%10.58%12.66%15.29%17.00%17.66%
HB Koge0.24%0.69%1.29%1.89%3.02%4.69%5.99%8.91%10.73%14.97%19.40%28.18%
Kolding IF13.12%15.54%14.54%12.35%11.60%9.23%7.86%5.51%4.61%2.92%1.89%0.83%
B.930.55%1.43%2.21%3.61%4.91%6.27%8.47%10.61%13.44%15.53%17.10%15.87%
Middlefart BK0.51%1.25%2.03%3.27%4.08%6.62%7.95%9.80%12.55%14.11%17.71%20.12%
Team123456789101112
Lyngby————————————
Horsens————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Hillerod————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Aalborg————————————
Aarhus Fremad————————————
Hobro————————————
HB Koge————————————
Kolding IF————————————
B.93————————————
Middlefart BK————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.25%
Slight Edge
39.58%27.08%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 21.74 Elo pts.
176 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Lyngby, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.8 * Some Luck: 4.8 to 7.19 * Lucky: 7.19 to 9.59 * Wild Swing: 9.59 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.87 * Close: 1.87 to 2.8 * Off: 2.8 to 3.74 * Way Off: 3.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.54 points
Some Luck
06.0015
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.345
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
92.93%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.19%
Middlefart BK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.33
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.42
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.22
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.76
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.054
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Aalborg 69.32% 30.68%
Aarhus Fremad 44.05% 55.95%
B.93 18.98% 81.02%
Esbjerg 39.32% 60.68%
HB Koge 11.82% 88.18%
Hillerod 74.45% 25.55%
Hobro 18.27% 81.73%
Horsens 71.60% 28.40%
Hvidovre 65.41% 34.59%
Kolding IF 76.38% 23.62%
Lyngby 92.64% 7.36%
Middlefart BK 17.76% 82.24%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Aalborg — 100%
Aarhus Fremad — 100%
B.93 — 100%
Esbjerg 100% —
HB Koge — 100%
Hillerod 100% —
Hobro — 100%
Horsens 100% —
Hvidovre 100% —
Kolding IF 100% —
Lyngby 100% —
Middlefart BK — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2025-07-18 Hobro W 2-0 1471 1493 37.58% 24.73% 37.68% +19.6 3
2025-07-18 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1493 1471 37.68% 24.73% 37.58% -19.6 0
2025-07-18 B.93 D 1-1 1523 1481 46.52% 24.45% 29.04% -1.0 1
2025-07-18 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1481 1523 29.04% 24.45% 46.52% +1.0 1
2025-07-19 Middlefart BK W 2-1 1559 1527 45.16% 24.53% 30.31% +8.3 3
2025-07-19 @ Hillerod L 1-2 1527 1559 30.31% 24.53% 45.16% -8.3 0
2025-07-19 Aarhus Fremad D 0-0 1525 1490 45.51% 24.51% 29.97% -1.0 1
2025-07-19 @ Horsens D 0-0 1490 1525 29.97% 24.51% 45.51% +1.0 1
2025-07-19 Aalborg W 1-0 1551 1549 41.00% 24.69% 34.31% +9.7 3
2025-07-19 @ Kolding IF L 0-1 1549 1551 34.31% 24.69% 41.00% -9.7 0
2025-07-20 Lyngby L 0-2 1499 1569 30.99% 24.57% 44.44% -16.8 0
2025-07-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1569 1499 44.44% 24.57% 30.99% +16.8 3
2025-07-25 Aarhus Fremad W 2-1 1490 1491 40.65% 24.70% 34.65% +9.2 6
2025-07-25 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1491 1490 34.65% 24.70% 40.65% -9.2 1
2025-07-25 Kolding IF W 2-1 1524 1560 35.50% 24.72% 39.78% +10.2 4
2025-07-25 @ Horsens L 1-2 1560 1524 39.78% 24.72% 35.50% -10.2 3
2025-07-25 B.93 D 1-1 1586 1481 54.10% 23.67% 22.23% -1.9 4
2025-07-25 @ Lyngby D 1-1 1481 1586 22.23% 23.67% 54.10% +1.9 2
2025-07-26 Hvidovre W 2-1 1482 1522 34.98% 24.71% 40.31% +10.3 3
2025-07-26 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1522 1482 40.31% 24.71% 34.98% -10.3 1
2025-07-26 Aalborg D 2-2 1567 1539 44.59% 24.56% 30.85% -0.6 4
2025-07-26 @ Hillerod D 2-2 1539 1567 30.85% 24.56% 44.59% +0.6 1
2025-07-27 Middlefart BK D 0-0 1473 1518 34.31% 24.69% 40.99% +0.4 1
2025-07-27 @ Hobro D 0-0 1518 1473 40.99% 24.69% 34.31% -0.4 1
2025-08-01 Hobro D 1-1 1540 1473 49.54% 24.21% 26.26% -1.3 2
2025-08-01 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1473 1540 26.26% 24.21% 49.54% +1.3 2
2025-08-01 Hillerod L 1-2 1483 1567 29.35% 24.47% 46.18% -8.1 2
2025-08-01 @ B.93 W 2-1 1567 1483 46.18% 24.47% 29.35% +8.1 7
2025-08-01 HB Koge W 3-1 1550 1499 47.59% 24.37% 28.04% +13.5 6
2025-08-01 @ Kolding IF L 1-3 1499 1550 28.04% 24.37% 47.59% -13.5 6
2025-08-02 Lyngby L 0-2 1481 1584 27.07% 24.29% 48.65% -15.1 1
2025-08-02 @ Aarhus Fremad W 2-0 1584 1481 48.65% 24.29% 27.07% +15.1 7
2025-08-02 Esbjerg L 0-1 1518 1492 44.27% 24.58% 31.15% -11.8 1
2025-08-02 @ Middlefart BK W 1-0 1492 1518 31.15% 24.58% 44.27% +11.8 6
2025-08-04 Horsens D 0-0 1512 1534 37.56% 24.73% 37.70% +0.0 2
2025-08-04 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1534 1512 37.70% 24.73% 37.56% -0.0 5
2025-08-08 B.93 L 1-4 1475 1475 40.64% 24.70% 34.66% -25.4 2
2025-08-08 @ Hobro W 4-1 1475 1475 34.66% 24.70% 40.64% +25.4 5
2025-08-09 Hillerod W 3-1 1466 1575 26.38% 24.22% 49.40% +21.1 4
2025-08-09 @ Aarhus Fremad L 1-3 1575 1466 49.40% 24.22% 26.38% -21.1 7
2025-08-09 Kolding IF L 0-2 1504 1564 32.35% 24.63% 43.02% -17.4 6
2025-08-09 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1564 1504 43.02% 24.63% 32.35% +17.4 9
2025-08-09 Middlefart BK W 2-0 1534 1506 44.55% 24.56% 30.89% +16.8 8
2025-08-09 @ Horsens L 0-2 1506 1534 30.89% 24.56% 44.55% -16.8 1
2025-08-10 Aalborg L 0-2 1486 1538 33.35% 24.67% 41.99% -17.8 6
2025-08-10 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1538 1486 41.99% 24.67% 33.35% +17.8 5
2025-08-10 Hvidovre L 1-2 1599 1512 52.09% 23.93% 23.98% -12.8 7
2025-08-10 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1512 1599 23.98% 23.93% 52.09% +12.7 5
2025-08-15 Horsens L 0-2 1556 1551 41.47% 24.68% 33.85% -21.1 5
2025-08-15 @ Aalborg W 2-0 1551 1556 33.85% 24.68% 41.47% +21.1 11
2025-08-15 Esbjerg L 1-5 1501 1486 42.69% 24.64% 32.66% -34.1 5
2025-08-15 @ B.93 W 5-1 1486 1501 32.66% 24.64% 42.69% +34.1 9
2025-08-15 Aarhus Fremad W 2-0 1525 1487 45.79% 24.49% 29.71% +16.3 8
2025-08-15 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1487 1525 29.71% 24.49% 45.79% -16.3 4
2025-08-16 Hobro L 0-2 1554 1449 54.11% 23.67% 22.22% -26.4 7
2025-08-16 @ Hillerod W 2-0 1449 1554 22.22% 23.67% 54.11% +26.4 5
2025-08-16 Lyngby L 2-3 1581 1586 40.00% 24.71% 35.29% -9.7 9
2025-08-16 @ Kolding IF W 3-2 1586 1581 35.29% 24.71% 40.00% +9.7 10
2025-08-16 HB Koge D 2-2 1489 1468 43.64% 24.61% 31.75% -0.5 2
2025-08-16 @ Middlefart BK D 2-2 1468 1489 31.75% 24.61% 43.64% +0.5 7
2025-08-19 Aalborg W 1-0 1521 1535 38.65% 24.73% 36.62% +10.2 12
2025-08-19 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1535 1521 36.62% 24.73% 38.65% -10.2 5
2025-08-19 B.93 L 0-1 1469 1467 40.99% 24.69% 34.31% -11.1 7
2025-08-19 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1467 1469 34.31% 24.69% 40.99% +11.1 8
2025-08-19 Middlefart BK D 2-2 1541 1489 47.74% 24.36% 27.90% -0.8 9
2025-08-19 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1489 1541 27.90% 24.36% 47.74% +0.8 3
2025-08-19 Hillerod L 1-2 1596 1527 49.84% 24.18% 25.99% -12.3 10
2025-08-19 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1527 1596 25.99% 24.18% 49.84% +12.3 10
2025-08-20 Kolding IF D 2-2 1471 1571 27.32% 24.31% 48.37% +0.9 5
2025-08-20 @ Aarhus Fremad D 2-2 1571 1471 48.37% 24.31% 27.32% -0.9 10
2025-08-20 Horsens L 0-1 1476 1572 27.80% 24.35% 47.84% -8.2 5
2025-08-20 @ Hobro W 1-0 1572 1476 47.84% 24.35% 27.80% +8.2 14
2025-08-22 Hvidovre W 4-0 1525 1540 38.56% 24.73% 36.71% +36.4 8
2025-08-22 @ Aalborg L 0-4 1540 1525 36.71% 24.73% 38.56% -36.4 9
2025-08-23 Kolding IF L 0-1 1478 1571 28.19% 24.38% 47.42% -8.3 8
2025-08-23 @ B.93 W 1-0 1571 1478 47.42% 24.38% 28.19% +8.3 13
2025-08-23 HB Koge W 3-1 1540 1458 51.48% 24.00% 24.51% +12.0 13
2025-08-23 @ Hillerod L 1-3 1458 1540 24.51% 24.00% 51.48% -12.0 7
2025-08-23 Horsens D 0-0 1584 1580 41.22% 24.69% 34.09% -0.4 11
2025-08-23 @ Lyngby D 0-0 1580 1584 34.09% 24.69% 41.22% +0.4 15
2025-08-23 Aarhus Fremad D 2-2 1490 1472 43.15% 24.63% 32.22% -0.5 4
2025-08-23 @ Middlefart BK D 2-2 1472 1490 32.22% 24.63% 43.15% +0.4 6
2025-08-24 Esbjerg W 2-0 1468 1531 31.91% 24.61% 43.47% +21.9 8
2025-08-24 @ Hobro L 0-2 1531 1468 43.47% 24.61% 31.91% -21.9 12
2025-08-29 Aalborg W 5-1 1473 1561 28.68% 24.42% 46.90% +36.8 9
2025-08-29 @ Aarhus Fremad L 1-5 1561 1473 46.90% 24.42% 28.68% -36.8 8
2025-08-29 Hobro D 1-1 1504 1489 42.69% 24.64% 32.66% -0.6 10
2025-08-29 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1489 1504 32.66% 24.64% 42.69% +0.5 9
2025-08-29 Hillerod D 0-0 1579 1552 44.46% 24.57% 30.97% -0.8 14
2025-08-29 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1552 1579 30.97% 24.57% 44.46% +0.8 14
2025-08-30 Lyngby D 2-2 1489 1583 28.05% 24.37% 47.57% +0.8 5
2025-08-30 @ Middlefart BK D 2-2 1583 1489 47.57% 24.37% 28.05% -0.8 12
2025-08-31 B.93 L 1-2 1580 1469 54.88% 23.55% 21.57% -13.3 15
2025-08-31 @ Horsens W 2-1 1469 1580 21.57% 23.55% 54.88% +13.3 11
2025-09-01 HB Koge W 3-2 1509 1446 49.17% 24.24% 26.59% +7.1 15
2025-09-01 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1446 1509 26.59% 24.24% 49.17% -7.0 7
2025-09-11 Lyngby L 1-4 1490 1582 28.24% 24.39% 47.37% -19.1 9
2025-09-11 @ Hobro W 4-1 1582 1490 47.37% 24.39% 28.24% +19.1 15
2025-09-12 Aarhus Fremad L 1-3 1483 1509 36.92% 24.73% 38.35% -16.7 11
2025-09-12 @ B.93 W 3-1 1509 1483 38.35% 24.73% 36.92% +16.7 12
2025-09-13 Horsens W 1-0 1438 1567 24.15% 23.96% 51.89% +13.5 10
2025-09-13 @ HB Koge L 0-1 1567 1438 51.89% 23.96% 24.15% -13.5 15
2025-09-13 Hvidovre L 0-1 1578 1503 50.61% 24.10% 25.29% -13.2 14
2025-09-13 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1503 1578 25.29% 24.10% 50.61% +13.2 13
2025-09-14 Middlefart BK W 4-0 1525 1490 45.43% 24.52% 30.05% +31.2 11
2025-09-14 @ Aalborg L 0-4 1490 1525 30.05% 24.52% 45.43% -31.2 5
2025-09-14 Esbjerg W 3-0 1552 1516 45.71% 24.50% 29.79% +23.7 17
2025-09-14 @ Hillerod L 0-3 1516 1552 29.79% 24.50% 45.71% -23.7 15
2025-09-20 Hobro W 3-0 1526 1471 48.14% 24.33% 27.53% +22.2 15
2025-09-20 @ Aarhus Fremad L 0-3 1471 1526 27.53% 24.33% 48.14% -22.2 9
2025-09-20 Esbjerg W 1-0 1554 1492 48.94% 24.26% 26.80% +7.9 18
2025-09-20 @ Horsens L 0-1 1492 1554 26.80% 24.26% 48.94% -7.9 15
2025-09-20 Hillerod W 3-1 1516 1576 32.35% 24.63% 43.01% +18.8 16
2025-09-20 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1576 1516 43.01% 24.63% 32.35% -18.8 17
2025-09-20 Kolding IF W 1-0 1459 1565 26.66% 24.25% 49.09% +12.9 8
2025-09-20 @ Middlefart BK L 0-1 1565 1459 49.09% 24.25% 26.66% -12.8 14
2025-09-21 B.93 W 3-0 1556 1466 52.40% 23.89% 23.71% +19.6 14
2025-09-21 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1466 1556 23.71% 23.89% 52.40% -19.6 11
2025-09-21 HB Koge W 4-0 1602 1452 59.05% 22.81% 18.14% +20.2 18
2025-09-21 @ Lyngby L 0-4 1452 1602 18.14% 22.81% 59.05% -20.2 10
2025-09-27 Middlefart BK W 1-0 1446 1472 37.11% 24.73% 38.16% +10.5 14
2025-09-27 @ B.93 L 0-1 1472 1446 38.16% 24.73% 37.11% -10.5 8
2025-09-27 Hvidovre L 0-2 1432 1535 26.96% 24.28% 48.76% -15.0 10
2025-09-27 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1535 1432 48.76% 24.28% 26.96% +15.0 19
2025-09-27 Horsens W 2-1 1557 1562 40.11% 24.71% 35.18% +9.3 20
2025-09-27 @ Hillerod L 1-2 1562 1557 35.18% 24.71% 40.11% -9.3 18
2025-09-27 Aalborg W 2-1 1622 1575 47.01% 24.41% 28.58% +7.9 21
2025-09-27 @ Lyngby L 1-2 1575 1622 28.58% 24.41% 47.01% -7.9 14
2025-09-28 Aarhus Fremad D 1-1 1484 1548 31.81% 24.61% 43.58% +0.7 16
2025-09-28 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1548 1484 43.58% 24.61% 31.81% -0.6 16
2025-09-28 Kolding IF D 2-2 1449 1552 26.96% 24.28% 48.76% +0.9 10
2025-09-28 @ Hobro D 2-2 1552 1449 48.76% 24.28% 26.96% -0.9 15
2025-10-02 HB Koge W 2-1 1567 1417 59.16% 22.78% 18.06% +5.3 17
2025-10-02 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1417 1567 18.06% 22.78% 59.16% -5.3 10
2025-10-03 Hobro D 3-3 1552 1450 53.93% 23.69% 22.38% -1.1 19
2025-10-03 @ Horsens D 3-3 1450 1552 22.38% 23.69% 53.93% +1.1 11
2025-10-04 B.93 L 1-2 1548 1457 52.52% 23.88% 23.60% -12.8 16
2025-10-04 @ Aarhus Fremad W 2-1 1457 1548 23.60% 23.88% 52.52% +12.8 17
2025-10-04 Esbjerg W 2-1 1551 1485 49.52% 24.21% 26.27% +7.4 18
2025-10-04 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1485 1551 26.27% 24.21% 49.52% -7.4 16
2025-10-04 Hillerod L 1-2 1461 1567 26.72% 24.25% 49.03% -7.5 8
2025-10-04 @ Middlefart BK W 2-1 1567 1461 49.03% 24.25% 26.72% +7.5 23
2025-10-06 Lyngby D 2-2 1550 1630 29.83% 24.50% 45.67% +0.7 20
2025-10-06 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1630 1550 45.67% 24.50% 29.83% -0.7 22
2025-10-16 Hobro D 1-1 1478 1451 44.41% 24.57% 31.02% -0.8 17
2025-10-16 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1451 1478 31.02% 24.57% 44.41% +0.8 12
2025-10-17 Aalborg D 2-2 1470 1573 27.01% 24.28% 48.71% +0.9 18
2025-10-17 @ B.93 D 2-2 1573 1470 48.71% 24.28% 27.01% -0.9 18
2025-10-17 Kolding IF W 2-1 1411 1558 22.28% 23.68% 54.04% +13.2 13
2025-10-17 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1558 1411 54.04% 23.68% 22.28% -13.2 18
2025-10-18 Hvidovre D 1-1 1574 1551 43.93% 24.59% 31.47% -0.7 24
2025-10-18 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1551 1574 31.47% 24.59% 43.93% +0.7 21
2025-10-18 Horsens L 0-3 1454 1551 27.65% 24.34% 48.01% -22.3 8
2025-10-18 @ Middlefart BK W 3-0 1551 1454 48.01% 24.34% 27.65% +22.3 22
2025-10-19 Aarhus Fremad D 3-3 1629 1535 52.93% 23.83% 23.24% -1.1 23
2025-10-19 @ Lyngby D 3-3 1535 1629 23.24% 23.83% 52.93% +1.1 17
2025-10-23 HB Koge W 3-1 1551 1425 56.64% 23.27% 20.10% +10.1 24
2025-10-23 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1425 1551 20.10% 23.27% 56.64% -10.1 13
2025-10-24 Horsens W 1-0 1471 1573 27.02% 24.28% 48.70% +12.8 21
2025-10-24 @ B.93 L 0-1 1573 1471 48.70% 24.28% 27.02% -12.8 22
2025-10-24 Middlefart BK W 1-0 1545 1431 55.19% 23.50% 21.31% +6.5 21
2025-10-24 @ Kolding IF L 0-1 1431 1545 21.31% 23.50% 55.19% -6.5 8
2025-10-25 Lyngby W 3-2 1572 1628 32.85% 24.65% 42.50% +10.2 21
2025-10-25 @ Aalborg L 2-3 1628 1572 42.50% 24.65% 32.85% -10.2 23
2025-10-25 Esbjerg L 0-1 1536 1477 48.63% 24.29% 27.08% -12.7 17
2025-10-25 @ Aarhus Fremad W 1-0 1477 1536 27.08% 24.29% 48.63% +12.7 20
2025-10-25 Hillerod L 1-2 1451 1573 24.87% 24.05% 51.08% -7.0 12
2025-10-25 @ Hobro W 2-1 1573 1451 51.08% 24.05% 24.87% +7.0 27
2025-10-31 HB Koge L 2-3 1561 1414 58.70% 22.88% 18.42% -13.4 22
2025-10-31 @ Horsens W 3-2 1414 1561 18.42% 22.88% 58.70% +13.5 16
2025-11-01 Hvidovre D 0-0 1523 1562 35.25% 24.71% 40.04% +0.3 18
2025-11-01 @ Aarhus Fremad D 0-0 1562 1523 40.04% 24.71% 35.25% -0.3 25
2025-11-01 Kolding IF D 1-1 1580 1552 44.66% 24.56% 30.78% -0.8 28
2025-11-01 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1552 1580 30.78% 24.56% 44.66% +0.8 22
2025-11-01 Aalborg L 1-2 1425 1582 21.31% 23.50% 55.19% -6.2 8
2025-11-01 @ Middlefart BK W 2-1 1582 1425 55.19% 23.50% 21.31% +6.2 24
2025-11-02 B.93 W 3-2 1490 1483 41.57% 24.68% 33.75% +8.5 23
2025-11-02 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1483 1490 33.75% 24.68% 41.57% -8.5 21
2025-11-02 Hobro W 3-0 1618 1444 61.42% 22.28% 16.30% +14.0 26
2025-11-02 @ Lyngby L 0-3 1444 1618 16.30% 22.28% 61.42% -14.0 12
2025-11-07 Hillerod D 1-1 1428 1580 21.81% 23.60% 54.59% +1.9 17
2025-11-07 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1580 1428 54.59% 23.60% 21.81% -1.9 29
2025-11-07 Aarhus Fremad W 2-0 1430 1523 28.18% 24.38% 47.43% +23.5 15
2025-11-07 @ Hobro L 0-2 1523 1430 47.43% 24.38% 28.18% -23.5 18
2025-11-07 Horsens L 1-3 1553 1547 41.45% 24.68% 33.87% -18.2 22
2025-11-07 @ Kolding IF W 3-1 1547 1553 33.87% 24.68% 41.45% +18.2 25
2025-11-08 Lyngby L 0-3 1475 1632 21.33% 23.51% 55.16% -17.9 21
2025-11-08 @ B.93 W 3-0 1632 1475 55.16% 23.51% 21.33% +17.9 29
2025-11-09 Aalborg D 2-2 1561 1588 36.89% 24.73% 38.38% +0.1 26
2025-11-09 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1588 1561 38.38% 24.73% 36.89% -0.1 25
2025-11-10 Middlefart BK W 4-2 1498 1419 51.15% 24.04% 24.81% +10.9 26
2025-11-10 @ Esbjerg L 2-4 1419 1498 24.81% 24.04% 51.15% -10.9 8
2025-11-20 Hvidovre L 0-1 1454 1561 26.49% 24.23% 49.28% -7.9 15
2025-11-20 @ Hobro W 1-0 1561 1454 49.28% 24.23% 26.49% +7.9 29
2025-11-21 Esbjerg W 2-0 1650 1509 58.11% 23.00% 18.90% +11.0 32
2025-11-21 @ Lyngby L 0-2 1509 1650 18.90% 23.00% 58.11% -11.0 26
2025-11-22 Kolding IF L 0-3 1588 1534 47.96% 24.34% 27.70% -34.5 25
2025-11-22 @ Aalborg W 3-0 1534 1588 27.70% 24.34% 47.96% +34.5 25
2025-11-22 B.93 D 2-2 1408 1457 33.79% 24.68% 41.53% +0.3 9
2025-11-22 @ Middlefart BK D 2-2 1457 1408 41.53% 24.68% 33.79% -0.3 22
2025-11-23 HB Koge D 2-2 1500 1430 50.01% 24.16% 25.83% -1.0 19
2025-11-23 @ Aarhus Fremad D 2-2 1430 1500 25.83% 24.16% 50.01% +1.0 18
2025-11-23 Hillerod W 3-1 1566 1578 38.98% 24.73% 36.29% +16.5 28
2025-11-23 @ Horsens L 1-3 1578 1566 36.29% 24.73% 38.98% -16.5 29
2025-11-28 Hobro L 0-1 1457 1446 42.19% 24.66% 33.15% -11.3 22
2025-11-28 @ B.93 W 1-0 1446 1457 33.15% 24.66% 42.19% +11.3 18
2025-11-28 Lyngby W 1-0 1561 1661 27.43% 24.32% 48.25% +12.7 32
2025-11-28 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1661 1561 48.25% 24.32% 27.43% -12.7 32
2025-11-29 Middlefart BK L 1-2 1431 1408 43.84% 24.60% 31.56% -11.0 18
2025-11-29 @ HB Koge W 2-1 1408 1431 31.56% 24.60% 43.84% +11.0 12
2025-11-29 Esbjerg L 1-3 1569 1498 50.17% 24.14% 25.69% -21.4 29
2025-11-29 @ Hvidovre W 3-1 1498 1569 25.69% 24.14% 50.17% +21.4 29
2025-11-30 Aalborg D 0-0 1582 1554 44.62% 24.56% 30.82% -0.9 29
2025-11-30 @ Horsens D 0-0 1554 1582 30.82% 24.56% 44.62% +0.9 26
2025-11-30 Aarhus Fremad D 1-1 1569 1499 50.00% 24.16% 25.84% -1.4 26
2025-11-30 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1499 1569 25.84% 24.16% 50.00% +1.4 20
2026-02-27 Hillerod D 3-3 1554 1574 37.94% 24.73% 37.33% -0.0 27
2026-02-27 @ Aalborg D 3-3 1574 1554 37.33% 24.73% 37.94% +0.0 33
2026-02-27 Hvidovre L 1-3 1445 1548 27.06% 24.29% 48.66% -13.1 22
2026-02-27 @ B.93 W 3-1 1548 1445 48.66% 24.29% 27.06% +13.1 32
2026-02-27 HB Koge D 1-1 1457 1420 45.84% 24.49% 29.66% -0.9 19
2026-02-27 @ Hobro D 1-1 1420 1457 29.66% 24.49% 45.84% +0.9 19
2026-02-27 Kolding IF W 2-0 1648 1567 51.30% 24.02% 24.68% +14.0 35
2026-02-27 @ Lyngby L 0-2 1567 1648 24.68% 24.02% 51.30% -14.0 26
2026-02-28 Middlefart BK W 4-1 1500 1419 51.36% 24.02% 24.63% +17.1 23
2026-02-28 @ Aarhus Fremad L 1-4 1419 1500 24.63% 24.02% 51.36% -17.1 12
2026-02-28 Horsens W 2-1 1519 1581 32.09% 24.62% 43.29% +10.9 32
2026-02-28 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1581 1519 43.29% 24.62% 32.09% -10.9 29
2026-03-06 Aarhus Fremad L 0-1 1554 1517 45.78% 24.50% 29.72% -12.1 27
2026-03-06 @ Aalborg W 1-0 1517 1554 29.72% 24.50% 45.78% +12.1 26
2026-03-06 Esbjerg L 0-1 1421 1530 26.26% 24.21% 49.53% -7.8 19
2026-03-06 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1530 1421 49.53% 24.21% 26.26% +7.8 35
2026-03-06 Hobro W 2-1 1553 1457 53.25% 23.78% 22.97% +6.6 29
2026-03-06 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1457 1553 22.97% 23.78% 53.25% -6.6 19
2026-03-07 B.93 L 0-1 1574 1432 58.22% 22.97% 18.81% -14.9 33
2026-03-07 @ Hillerod W 1-0 1432 1574 18.81% 22.97% 58.22% +14.9 25
2026-03-07 Hvidovre L 1-2 1402 1561 21.15% 23.47% 55.38% -6.1 12
2026-03-07 @ Middlefart BK W 2-1 1561 1402 55.38% 23.47% 21.15% +6.1 35
2026-03-09 Lyngby L 1-3 1570 1662 28.34% 24.40% 47.26% -13.6 29
2026-03-09 @ Horsens W 3-1 1662 1570 47.26% 24.40% 28.34% +13.6 38
2026-03-13 HB Koge W 2-0 1447 1413 45.40% 24.52% 30.08% +16.4 28
2026-03-13 @ B.93 L 0-2 1413 1447 30.08% 24.52% 45.40% -16.4 19
2026-03-13 Middlefart BK W 4-1 1675 1396 70.55% 19.38% 10.07% +7.2 41
2026-03-13 @ Lyngby L 1-4 1396 1675 10.07% 19.38% 70.55% -7.2 12
2026-03-14 Horsens D 0-0 1529 1557 36.83% 24.73% 38.44% +0.1 27
2026-03-14 @ Aarhus Fremad D 0-0 1557 1529 38.44% 24.73% 36.83% -0.1 30
2026-03-14 Aalborg W 1-0 1450 1542 28.26% 24.39% 47.36% +12.5 22
2026-03-14 @ Hobro L 0-1 1542 1450 47.36% 24.39% 28.26% -12.5 27
2026-03-15 Hillerod D 2-2 1538 1559 37.72% 24.73% 37.55% -0.0 36
2026-03-15 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1559 1538 37.55% 24.73% 37.72% +0.0 34
2026-03-15 Kolding IF D 0-0 1567 1560 41.70% 24.68% 33.63% -0.5 36
2026-03-15 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1560 1567 33.63% 24.68% 41.70% +0.5 30
2026-03-21 Esbjerg D 1-1 1530 1538 39.56% 24.72% 35.72% -0.2 28
2026-03-21 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1538 1530 35.72% 24.72% 39.56% +0.2 37
2026-03-21 Lyngby D 3-3 1396 1683 11.89% 20.45% 67.65% +2.1 20
2026-03-21 @ HB Koge D 3-3 1683 1396 67.65% 20.45% 11.89% -2.1 42
2026-03-21 Aarhus Fremad W 1-0 1559 1530 44.77% 24.55% 30.68% +8.9 37
2026-03-21 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1530 1559 30.68% 24.55% 44.77% -8.8 27
2026-03-21 Hvidovre L 0-4 1557 1567 39.30% 24.72% 35.97% -38.4 30
2026-03-21 @ Horsens W 4-0 1567 1557 35.97% 24.72% 39.30% +38.4 39
2026-03-21 B.93 W 3-0 1560 1464 53.24% 23.79% 22.97% +19.1 33
2026-03-21 @ Kolding IF L 0-3 1464 1560 22.97% 23.79% 53.24% -19.1 28
2026-03-21 Hobro L 0-1 1389 1462 30.58% 24.55% 44.87% -8.8 12
2026-03-21 @ Middlefart BK W 1-0 1462 1389 44.87% 24.55% 30.58% +8.8 25

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2026-04-03 Esbjerg D 1-1 1580 1538 46.34% 24.46% 29.20% -1.0 1
2026-04-03 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1538 1580 29.20% 24.46% 46.34% +1.0 1
2026-04-03 Hillerod D 1-1 1605 1568 45.77% 24.50% 29.74% -0.9 1
2026-04-03 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1568 1605 29.74% 24.50% 45.77% +0.9 1
2026-04-03 Hobro L 0-2 1445 1471 36.91% 24.73% 38.36% -19.3 0
2026-04-03 @ B.93 W 2-0 1471 1445 38.36% 24.73% 36.91% +19.3 3
2026-04-04 Lyngby W 1-0 1518 1681 20.81% 23.41% 55.77% +14.4 3
2026-04-04 @ Horsens L 0-1 1681 1518 55.77% 23.41% 20.81% -14.4 0
2026-04-04 Aalborg L 2-5 1380 1530 22.02% 23.63% 54.35% -13.4 0
2026-04-04 @ Middlefart BK W 5-2 1530 1380 54.35% 23.63% 22.02% +13.4 3
2026-04-06 Aarhus Fremad W 2-0 1399 1521 24.87% 24.05% 51.09% +25.1 3
2026-04-06 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1521 1399 51.09% 24.05% 24.87% -25.1 0
2026-04-10 Hvidovre W 1-0 1539 1604 31.70% 24.60% 43.70% +11.7 4
2026-04-10 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1604 1539 43.70% 24.60% 31.70% -11.7 1
2026-04-10 Aalborg L 0-1 1491 1543 33.32% 24.67% 42.01% -9.5 3
2026-04-10 @ Hobro W 1-0 1543 1491 42.01% 24.67% 33.32% +9.5 6
2026-04-10 Middlefart BK W 2-0 1424 1367 48.38% 24.31% 27.31% +15.2 6
2026-04-10 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1367 1424 27.31% 24.31% 48.38% -15.2 0
2026-04-11 Horsens D 0-0 1569 1533 45.66% 24.50% 29.83% -1.0 2
2026-04-11 @ Hillerod D 0-0 1533 1569 29.83% 24.50% 45.66% +1.0 4
2026-04-11 Kolding IF W 3-1 1666 1579 52.15% 23.92% 23.93% +11.8 3
2026-04-11 @ Lyngby L 1-3 1579 1666 23.93% 23.92% 52.15% -11.8 1
2026-04-11 B.93 W 3-1 1496 1425 50.05% 24.16% 25.80% +12.6 3
2026-04-11 @ Aarhus Fremad L 1-3 1425 1496 25.80% 24.16% 50.05% -12.6 0
2026-04-17 Hillerod D 0-0 1551 1568 38.30% 24.73% 36.97% -0.1 5
2026-04-17 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1568 1551 36.97% 24.73% 38.30% +0.1 3
2026-04-17 Horsens L 0-1 1567 1534 45.27% 24.53% 30.21% -12.0 1
2026-04-17 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1534 1567 30.21% 24.53% 45.27% +12.0 7
2026-04-17 HB Koge L 1-2 1413 1439 36.98% 24.73% 38.29% -9.7 0
2026-04-17 @ B.93 W 2-1 1439 1413 38.29% 24.73% 36.98% +9.6 9
2026-04-18 Hvidovre W 2-1 1678 1592 51.91% 23.95% 24.13% +6.9 6
2026-04-18 @ Lyngby L 1-2 1592 1678 24.13% 23.95% 51.91% -6.8 1
2026-04-18 Hobro L 0-6 1351 1481 24.05% 23.94% 52.01% -38.0 0
2026-04-18 @ Middlefart BK W 6-0 1481 1351 52.01% 23.94% 24.05% +38.0 6
2026-04-18 Aarhus Fremad W 3-1 1553 1508 46.74% 24.43% 28.83% +13.8 9
2026-04-18 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1508 1553 28.83% 24.43% 46.74% -13.8 3
2026-04-21 Esbjerg W 4-1 1546 1551 39.98% 24.71% 35.30% +22.8 10
2026-04-21 @ Horsens L 1-4 1551 1546 35.30% 24.71% 39.98% -22.8 5
2026-04-21 Kolding IF W 2-1 1586 1555 44.93% 24.54% 30.53% +8.3 4
2026-04-21 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1555 1586 30.53% 24.54% 44.93% -8.3 1
2026-04-21 Lyngby L 1-3 1568 1685 25.43% 24.11% 50.46% -12.4 3
2026-04-21 @ Hillerod W 3-1 1685 1568 50.46% 24.11% 25.43% +12.4 9
2026-04-22 Middlefart BK W 5-1 1494 1313 62.16% 22.09% 15.75% +14.7 6
2026-04-22 @ Aarhus Fremad L 1-5 1313 1494 15.75% 22.09% 62.16% -14.7 0
2026-04-22 HB Koge L 1-2 1519 1449 50.07% 24.15% 25.78% -12.3 6
2026-04-22 @ Hobro W 2-1 1449 1519 25.78% 24.15% 50.07% +12.3 12
2026-04-23 B.93 W 3-2 1566 1403 60.42% 22.51% 17.07% +4.8 12
2026-04-23 @ Aalborg L 2-3 1403 1566 17.07% 22.51% 60.42% -4.8 0
2026-04-24 Esbjerg W 5-0 1697 1528 61.03% 22.37% 16.60% +22.9 12
2026-04-24 @ Lyngby L 0-5 1528 1697 16.60% 22.37% 61.03% -22.9 5
2026-04-25 Horsens D 1-1 1594 1568 44.22% 24.58% 31.20% -0.7 5
2026-04-25 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1568 1594 31.20% 24.58% 44.22% +0.7 11
2026-04-25 Kolding IF W 2-0 1555 1546 41.97% 24.67% 33.37% +17.8 6
2026-04-25 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1546 1555 33.37% 24.67% 41.97% -17.8 1
2026-04-26 Middlefart BK W 2-1 1398 1299 53.56% 23.74% 22.70% +6.5 3
2026-04-26 @ B.93 L 1-2 1299 1398 22.70% 23.74% 53.56% -6.5 0
2026-04-26 Hobro L 0-1 1509 1507 41.05% 24.69% 34.26% -11.1 6
2026-04-26 @ Aarhus Fremad W 1-0 1507 1509 34.26% 24.69% 41.05% +11.1 9
2026-04-26 Aalborg D 1-1 1461 1571 26.18% 24.20% 49.62% +1.3 13
2026-04-26 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1571 1461 49.62% 24.20% 26.18% -1.3 13
2026-04-30 Horsens L 0-1 1505 1569 31.80% 24.61% 43.59% -9.1 5
2026-04-30 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1569 1505 43.59% 24.61% 31.80% +9.1 14
2026-05-01 Hobro D 1-1 1570 1518 47.72% 24.36% 27.92% -1.1 14
2026-05-01 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1518 1570 27.92% 24.36% 47.72% +1.1 10
2026-05-01 B.93 W 3-2 1462 1405 48.42% 24.31% 27.28% +7.2 16
2026-05-01 @ HB Koge L 2-3 1405 1462 27.28% 24.31% 48.42% -7.2 3
2026-05-01 Aarhus Fremad L 0-1 1292 1498 17.12% 22.52% 60.35% -5.3 0
2026-05-01 @ Middlefart BK W 1-0 1498 1292 60.35% 22.52% 17.12% +5.3 9
2026-05-03 Hvidovre D 1-1 1529 1593 31.75% 24.61% 43.64% +0.7 2
2026-05-03 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1593 1529 43.64% 24.61% 31.75% -0.7 6
2026-05-03 Hillerod L 1-2 1720 1573 58.75% 22.87% 18.38% -14.2 12
2026-05-03 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1573 1720 18.38% 22.87% 58.75% +14.2 9
2026-05-08 Middlefart BK L 1-3 1569 1287 70.72% 19.31% 9.97% -28.8 14
2026-05-08 @ Aalborg W 3-1 1287 1569 9.97% 19.31% 70.72% +28.8 3
2026-05-08 B.93 D 3-3 1519 1398 56.02% 23.37% 20.61% -1.3 11
2026-05-08 @ Hobro D 3-3 1398 1519 20.61% 23.37% 56.02% +1.3 4
2026-05-09 Hillerod W 4-0 1578 1588 39.40% 24.72% 35.88% +35.8 17
2026-05-09 @ Horsens L 0-4 1588 1578 35.88% 24.72% 39.40% -35.8 9
2026-05-09 Kolding IF W 3-0 1496 1529 35.96% 24.72% 39.31% +29.4 8
2026-05-09 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1529 1496 39.31% 24.72% 35.96% -29.4 2
2026-05-09 Lyngby L 0-2 1592 1706 25.81% 24.16% 50.03% -14.5 6
2026-05-09 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1706 1592 50.03% 24.16% 25.81% +14.5 15
2026-05-09 HB Koge D 0-0 1503 1469 45.36% 24.52% 30.12% -0.9 10
2026-05-09 @ Aarhus Fremad D 0-0 1469 1503 30.12% 24.52% 45.36% +0.9 17
2026-05-14 Aarhus Fremad L 0-3 1518 1502 42.83% 24.64% 32.53% -31.4 11
2026-05-14 @ Hobro W 3-0 1502 1518 32.53% 24.64% 42.83% +31.4 13
2026-05-15 Lyngby L 1-3 1500 1720 16.02% 22.18% 61.79% -8.2 2
2026-05-15 @ Kolding IF W 3-1 1720 1500 61.79% 22.18% 16.02% +8.2 18
2026-05-15 Aalborg D 1-1 1399 1540 22.90% 23.77% 53.33% +1.8 5
2026-05-15 @ B.93 D 1-1 1540 1399 53.33% 23.77% 22.90% -1.8 15
2026-05-16 Hvidovre D 1-1 1614 1578 45.65% 24.50% 29.85% -0.9 18
2026-05-16 @ Horsens D 1-1 1578 1614 29.85% 24.50% 45.65% +0.9 7
2026-05-16 Esbjerg D 1-1 1552 1525 44.35% 24.57% 31.08% -0.7 10
2026-05-16 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1525 1552 31.08% 24.57% 44.35% +0.7 9
2026-05-16 HB Koge L 0-4 1316 1470 21.54% 23.55% 54.91% -23.6 3
2026-05-16 @ Middlefart BK W 4-0 1470 1316 54.91% 23.55% 21.54% +23.6 20
2026-05-22 Aalborg W 5-0 1534 1538 40.12% 24.71% 35.17% +43.4 16
2026-05-22 @ Aarhus Fremad L 0-5 1538 1534 35.17% 24.71% 40.12% -43.5 15
2026-05-23 B.93 L 2-4 1292 1401 26.37% 24.22% 49.41% -11.4 3
2026-05-23 @ Middlefart BK W 4-2 1401 1292 49.41% 24.22% 26.37% +11.4 8
2026-05-25 Hobro L 0-1 1494 1486 41.79% 24.67% 33.54% -11.2 20
2026-05-25 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1486 1494 33.54% 24.67% 41.79% +11.2 14
2026-05-25 Esbjerg L 1-4 1579 1526 47.83% 24.35% 27.82% -29.0 7
2026-05-25 @ Hvidovre W 4-1 1526 1579 27.82% 24.35% 47.83% +29.0 12
2026-05-25 Hillerod W 3-0 1492 1551 32.44% 24.64% 42.93% +31.5 5
2026-05-25 @ Kolding IF L 0-3 1551 1492 42.93% 24.64% 32.44% -31.5 10
2026-05-25 Horsens L 0-2 1729 1613 55.37% 23.48% 21.15% -26.9 18
2026-05-25 @ Lyngby W 2-0 1613 1729 21.15% 23.48% 55.37% +26.9 21
2026-05-30 HB Koge W 1-0 1495 1483 42.36% 24.66% 32.98% +9.4 18
2026-05-30 @ Aalborg L 0-1 1483 1495 32.98% 24.66% 42.36% -9.4 20
2026-05-30 Aarhus Fremad D 2-2 1412 1577 20.55% 23.36% 56.09% +1.6 9
2026-05-30 @ B.93 D 2-2 1577 1412 56.09% 23.36% 20.55% -1.6 17
2026-05-30 Middlefart BK W 3-2 1497 1281 65.43% 21.18% 13.39% +3.8 17
2026-05-30 @ Hobro L 2-3 1281 1497 13.39% 21.18% 65.43% -3.8 3
2026-05-31 Kolding IF W 1-0 1640 1523 55.52% 23.45% 21.02% +6.5 24
2026-05-31 @ Horsens L 0-1 1523 1640 21.02% 23.45% 55.52% -6.5 5
2026-05-31 Lyngby W 2-1 1555 1702 22.32% 23.68% 54.00% +13.2 15
2026-05-31 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1702 1555 54.00% 23.68% 22.32% -13.2 18
2026-05-31 Hvidovre W 2-1 1520 1550 36.40% 24.73% 38.88% +10.0 13
2026-05-31 @ Hillerod L 1-2 1550 1520 38.88% 24.73% 36.40% -10.0 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-05-08 9.97% Middlefart BK 1287 3 @ Aalborg 1569 1
2 2026-05-03 18.38% Hillerod 1573 2 @ Lyngby 1720 1
3 2025-10-31 18.42% HB Koge 1414 3 @ Horsens 1561 2
4 2026-03-07 18.81% B.93 1432 1 @ Hillerod 1574 0
5 2026-04-04 20.81% @ Horsens 1518 1 Lyngby 1681 0
6 2026-05-25 21.15% Horsens 1613 2 @ Lyngby 1729 0
7 2025-08-31 21.57% B.93 1469 2 @ Horsens 1580 1
8 2025-08-16 22.22% Hobro 1449 2 @ Hillerod 1554 0
9 2025-10-17 22.28% @ HB Koge 1411 2 Kolding IF 1558 1
10 2026-05-31 22.32% @ Esbjerg 1555 2 Lyngby 1702 1
11 2025-10-04 23.60% B.93 1457 2 @ Aarhus Fremad 1548 1
12 2025-08-10 23.98% Hvidovre 1512 2 @ Lyngby 1599 1
13 2025-09-13 24.15% @ HB Koge 1438 1 Horsens 1567 0
14 2026-04-06 24.87% @ HB Koge 1399 2 Aarhus Fremad 1521 0
15 2025-09-13 25.29% Hvidovre 1503 1 @ Kolding IF 1578 0
16 2025-11-29 25.69% Esbjerg 1498 3 @ Hvidovre 1569 1
17 2026-04-22 25.78% HB Koge 1449 2 @ Hobro 1519 1
18 2025-08-19 25.99% Hillerod 1527 2 @ Lyngby 1596 1
19 2025-08-09 26.38% @ Aarhus Fremad 1466 3 Hillerod 1575 1
20 2025-09-20 26.66% @ Middlefart BK 1459 1 Kolding IF 1565 0
21 2025-10-24 27.02% @ B.93 1471 1 Horsens 1573 0
22 2025-10-25 27.08% Esbjerg 1477 1 @ Aarhus Fremad 1536 0
23 2025-11-28 27.43% @ Hillerod 1561 1 Lyngby 1661 0
24 2025-11-22 27.70% Kolding IF 1534 3 @ Aalborg 1588 0
25 2026-05-25 27.82% Esbjerg 1526 4 @ Hvidovre 1579 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-05-22 43.45 @ Aarhus Fremad 5 1534 40.12% Aalborg 0 1538 35.17% 24.71%
2 2026-03-21 38.36 Hvidovre 4 1567 35.97% @ Horsens 0 1557 39.30% 24.72%
3 2026-04-18 37.96 Hobro 6 1481 52.01% @ Middlefart BK 0 1351 24.05% 23.94%
4 2025-08-29 36.84 @ Aarhus Fremad 5 1473 28.68% Aalborg 1 1561 46.90% 24.42%
5 2025-08-22 36.42 @ Aalborg 4 1525 38.56% Hvidovre 0 1540 36.71% 24.73%
6 2026-05-09 35.80 @ Horsens 4 1578 39.40% Hillerod 0 1588 35.88% 24.72%
7 2025-11-22 34.48 Kolding IF 3 1534 27.70% @ Aalborg 0 1588 47.96% 24.34%
8 2025-08-15 34.11 Esbjerg 5 1486 32.66% @ B.93 1 1501 42.69% 24.64%
9 2026-05-25 31.47 @ Kolding IF 3 1492 32.44% Hillerod 0 1551 42.93% 24.64%
10 2026-05-14 31.41 Aarhus Fremad 3 1502 32.53% @ Hobro 0 1518 42.83% 24.64%
11 2025-09-14 31.17 @ Aalborg 4 1525 45.43% Middlefart BK 0 1490 30.05% 24.52%
12 2026-05-09 29.37 @ Esbjerg 3 1496 35.96% Kolding IF 0 1529 39.31% 24.72%
13 2026-05-25 29.01 Esbjerg 4 1526 27.82% @ Hvidovre 1 1579 47.83% 24.35%
14 2026-05-08 28.85 Middlefart BK 3 1287 9.97% @ Aalborg 1 1569 70.72% 19.31%
15 2026-05-25 26.90 Horsens 2 1613 21.15% @ Lyngby 0 1729 55.37% 23.48%
16 2025-08-16 26.36 Hobro 2 1449 22.22% @ Hillerod 0 1554 54.11% 23.67%
17 2025-08-08 25.41 B.93 4 1475 34.66% @ Hobro 1 1475 40.64% 24.70%
18 2026-04-06 25.07 @ HB Koge 2 1399 24.87% Aarhus Fremad 0 1521 51.09% 24.05%
19 2025-09-14 23.69 @ Hillerod 3 1552 45.71% Esbjerg 0 1516 29.79% 24.50%
20 2026-05-16 23.57 HB Koge 4 1470 54.91% @ Middlefart BK 0 1316 21.54% 23.55%
21 2025-11-07 23.52 @ Hobro 2 1430 28.18% Aarhus Fremad 0 1523 47.43% 24.38%
22 2026-04-24 22.87 @ Lyngby 5 1697 61.03% Esbjerg 0 1528 16.60% 22.37%
23 2026-04-21 22.83 @ Horsens 4 1546 39.98% Esbjerg 1 1551 35.30% 24.71%
24 2025-10-18 22.31 Horsens 3 1551 48.01% @ Middlefart BK 0 1454 27.65% 24.34%
25 2025-09-20 22.23 @ Aarhus Fremad 3 1526 48.14% Hobro 0 1471 27.53% 24.33%