2026-27 1st Division Season
6 games played · 12 teams
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Biggest Overachiever
Aalborg
1.64 points above expected
3 points · 1.36 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Hillerod
1.39 points below expected
0 points · 1.39 expected points
League Table
Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fredericia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.86 | +1.14 |
| 2 | Aarhus Fremad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.59 | +1.41 |
| 3 | Aalborg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1.36 | +1.64 |
| 4 | AB Gladsaxe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | +0.37 |
| 5 | Hvidovre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.94 | -0.94 |
| 6 | Vejle BK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.14 | -1.14 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
| 8 | Esbjerg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.67 | -0.67 |
| 9 | Kolding IF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.08 | -0.08 |
| 10 | Hobro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.16 | -1.16 |
| 11 | Hillerod | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1.39 | -1.39 |
| 12 | HB Koge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.90 | -0.90 |
Form
Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)
League Race
Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.
Season Summary
Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Exp. Pts. Rem. | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia | 1616 | 3 | 40.40 | 37.40 | 19 | 31 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 50 | 59 |
| Aarhus Fremad | 1592 | 3 | 38.93 | 35.93 | 19 | 29 | 35 | 39 | 43 | 49 | 61 |
| Vejle BK | 1567 | 1 | 34.12 | 33.12 | 14 | 24 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 57 |
| Esbjerg | 1566 | 1 | 34.65 | 33.65 | 15 | 25 | 31 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 55 |
| Hvidovre | 1536 | 1 | 31.75 | 30.75 | 10 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 36 | 42 | 56 |
| Aalborg | 1525 | 3 | 32.92 | 29.92 | 12 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 56 |
| Kolding IF | 1519 | 1 | 30.86 | 29.86 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 41 | 54 |
| Hillerod | 1509 | 0 | 28.79 | 28.79 | 5 | 19 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 39 | 53 |
| Hobro | 1485 | 0 | 26.84 | 26.84 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 36 | 48 |
| HB Koge | 1436 | 0 | 22.97 | 22.97 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
| Vendsyssel | 1411 | 1 | 21.72 | 20.72 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 31 | 43 |
| AB Gladsaxe | 1367 | 1 | 18.52 | 17.52 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 40 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | AG | AAL | AF | ESB | FRE | HK | HIL | HOB | HVI | KI | VB | VEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB Gladsaxe | — |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
0.63
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Aalborg |
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.36
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Aarhus Fremad |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.59
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Esbjerg |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.67
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Fredericia |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
1-0-0
1.86
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| HB Koge |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
0.90
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Hillerod |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.39
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Hobro |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.16
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Hvidovre |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.94
|
| Kolding IF |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
1.08
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Vejle BK |
0-1-0
2.14
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Vendsyssel |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-1-0
0.82
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.36 | +7.6 |
| Allowed | 0.54 | -9.3 |
| Differential | 0.72 | +6.8 |
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 8.33% | — | 8.33% | — | — | 16.67% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 16.67% | 8.33% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | — | 8.33% | 33.33% | — | — | — | 41.67% |
| 3 | 8.33% | — | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 16.67% | 33.33% | 41.67% | 8.33% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 1.41 |
| CV | 0.64 | 0.64 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 6
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Min | 2 | 2 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 0.00 | +1.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | — | — |
| Max | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | +1 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Min | 2 | 1 | +1 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Min | 1 | 1 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 3.00 | 0.00 | +3.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | — | — |
| Max | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Min | 3 | 0 | +3 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | 100.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.00 | 3.00 | -3.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | — | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Min | 0 | 3 | -3 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | — | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -1 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Min | 1 | 2 | -1 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Min | 2 | 2 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 1 | 1 | +0 |
| Min | 1 | 1 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Min | 2 | 2 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 100.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| SD | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +0 |
| Min | 2 | 2 | +0 |
Games Played: 1
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
No data available.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aalborg | 3 | 1.36 | +1.64 |
| 2 | Aarhus Fremad | 3 | 1.59 | +1.41 |
| 3 | Fredericia | 3 | 1.86 | +1.14 |
| 4 | AB Gladsaxe | 1 | 0.63 | +0.37 |
| 5 | Vendsyssel | 1 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hillerod | 0 | 1.39 | -1.39 |
| 2 | Hobro | 0 | 1.16 | -1.16 |
| 3 | Vejle BK | 1 | 2.14 | -1.14 |
| 4 | Hvidovre | 1 | 1.94 | -0.94 |
| 5 | HB Koge | 0 | 0.90 | -0.90 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aalborg | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 1 in 3 |
| 2 | Aarhus Fremad | 1 | Jul 26 – Jul 26 | 1 in 2 |
| 3 | Fredericia | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 54% |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hillerod | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 1 in 3 |
| 2 | Hobro | 1 | Jul 26 – Jul 26 | 1 in 2 |
| 3 | HB Koge | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 54% |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AB Gladsaxe | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 1 in 3 |
| 2 | Vendsyssel | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 1 in 2 |
| 3 | Kolding IF | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 52% |
| 4 | Aalborg | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 62% |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 1 | Jul 26 – Jul 26 | 70% |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle BK | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 1 in 3 |
| 2 | Hvidovre | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 1 in 2 |
| 3 | Esbjerg | 1 | Jul 25 – Jul 25 | 52% |
| 4 | Hillerod | 1 | Jul 24 – Jul 24 | 62% |
| 5 | Hobro | 1 | Jul 26 – Jul 26 | 70% |
Finish Position Heatmap
Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericia | 40.61% | 22.56% | 13.84% | 8.97% | 5.91% | 3.43% | 2.46% | 1.32% | 0.58% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| Aarhus Fremad | 27.99% | 23.46% | 17.23% | 11.31% | 8.15% | 5.11% | 3.19% | 1.93% | 1.01% | 0.49% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| Aalborg | 6.10% | 10.54% | 12.34% | 13.82% | 13.48% | 12.56% | 10.42% | 8.73% | 6.12% | 3.64% | 1.76% | 0.49% |
| AB Gladsaxe | — | 0.04% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.62% | 0.99% | 2.51% | 3.96% | 7.52% | 14.19% | 25.02% | 44.76% |
| Hvidovre | 3.97% | 7.35% | 9.80% | 11.88% | 12.88% | 13.52% | 12.62% | 10.91% | 7.92% | 5.46% | 2.60% | 1.09% |
| Vejle BK | 7.67% | 12.00% | 14.57% | 14.20% | 13.32% | 11.68% | 9.73% | 6.92% | 5.01% | 3.28% | 1.21% | 0.41% |
| Vendsyssel | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.43% | 1.11% | 2.22% | 3.19% | 5.29% | 8.85% | 12.74% | 19.63% | 23.89% | 22.40% |
| Esbjerg | 8.85% | 13.38% | 14.84% | 14.54% | 12.85% | 11.62% | 9.55% | 6.52% | 4.35% | 2.30% | 0.89% | 0.31% |
| Kolding IF | 2.90% | 5.77% | 8.30% | 10.72% | 12.16% | 12.98% | 13.24% | 12.59% | 9.65% | 6.33% | 3.64% | 1.72% |
| Hobro | 0.42% | 1.57% | 2.90% | 4.71% | 6.56% | 9.34% | 11.72% | 14.30% | 16.82% | 14.43% | 10.71% | 6.52% |
| Hillerod | 1.38% | 2.88% | 4.94% | 6.79% | 9.44% | 11.49% | 13.03% | 14.20% | 14.08% | 10.86% | 7.09% | 3.82% |
| HB Koge | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.68% | 1.69% | 2.41% | 4.09% | 6.24% | 9.77% | 14.20% | 19.18% | 22.99% | 18.44% |
No playoff sim data.
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Points Totals in Context
Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Season metrics are available for completed seasons.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Qualified for promotion playoff | Same level |
|---|---|---|
| AB Gladsaxe | 2.04% | 97.96% |
| Aalborg | 68.84% | 31.16% |
| Aarhus Fremad | 93.25% | 6.75% |
| Esbjerg | 76.08% | 23.92% |
| Fredericia | 95.32% | 4.68% |
| HB Koge | 9.18% | 90.82% |
| Hillerod | 36.92% | 63.08% |
| Hobro | 25.50% | 74.50% |
| Hvidovre | 59.40% | 40.60% |
| Kolding IF | 52.83% | 47.17% |
| Vejle BK | 73.44% | 26.56% |
| Vendsyssel | 7.20% | 92.80% |
Overall Game Log
Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | AB Gladsaxe | D 2-2 | 1571 | 1362 | 63.71% | 22.97% | 13.32% | -4.6 | 1 |
| 2026-07-24 | @ Vejle BK | D 2-2 | 1362 | 1571 | 13.32% | 22.97% | 63.71% | +4.6 | 1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Hillerod | W 1-0 | 1504 | 1530 | 37.06% | 24.73% | 38.21% | +21.0 | 3 |
| 2026-07-24 | @ Aalborg | L 0-1 | 1530 | 1504 | 38.21% | 24.73% | 37.06% | -21.0 | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vendsyssel | D 2-2 | 1540 | 1408 | 56.74% | 23.93% | 19.32% | -3.3 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | @ Hvidovre | D 2-2 | 1408 | 1540 | 19.32% | 23.93% | 56.74% | +3.3 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Kolding IF | D 1-1 | 1568 | 1517 | 47.56% | 24.55% | 27.89% | -2.2 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | @ Esbjerg | D 1-1 | 1517 | 1568 | 27.89% | 24.55% | 47.56% | +2.2 | 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | HB Koge | W 3-0 | 1579 | 1473 | 53.95% | 24.18% | 21.87% | +36.9 | 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | @ Fredericia | L 0-3 | 1473 | 1579 | 21.87% | 24.18% | 53.95% | -36.9 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Aarhus Fremad | L 1-2 | 1501 | 1576 | 30.41% | 24.64% | 44.95% | -16.6 | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | @ Hobro | W 2-1 | 1576 | 1501 | 44.95% | 24.64% | 30.41% | +16.6 | 3 |
Upcoming Games
Remaining games on the team's schedule
| Date | Opponent | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Aalborg | 1592 | 1525 | 49.54% | 24.46% | 26.00% |
| 2026-07-31 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1525 | 1592 | 26.00% | 24.46% | 49.54% |
| 2026-07-31 | Fredericia | 1367 | 1616 | 13.54% | 23.02% | 63.43% |
| 2026-07-31 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1616 | 1367 | 63.43% | 23.02% | 13.54% |
| 2026-07-31 | Vejle BK | 1436 | 1567 | 23.81% | 24.33% | 51.86% |
| 2026-07-31 | @ HB Koge | 1567 | 1436 | 51.86% | 24.33% | 23.81% |
| 2026-08-01 | Esbjerg | 1509 | 1566 | 32.65% | 24.69% | 42.66% |
| 2026-08-01 | @ Hillerod | 1566 | 1509 | 42.66% | 24.69% | 32.65% |
| 2026-08-01 | Hvidovre | 1519 | 1536 | 38.23% | 24.73% | 37.03% |
| 2026-08-01 | @ Kolding IF | 1536 | 1519 | 37.03% | 24.73% | 38.23% |
| 2026-08-02 | Hobro | 1411 | 1485 | 30.54% | 24.64% | 44.82% |
| 2026-08-02 | @ Vendsyssel | 1485 | 1411 | 44.82% | 24.64% | 30.54% |
| 2026-08-08 | HB Koge | 1592 | 1436 | 59.08% | 23.67% | 17.25% |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1436 | 1592 | 17.25% | 23.67% | 59.08% |
| 2026-08-08 | AB Gladsaxe | 1485 | 1367 | 55.29% | 24.07% | 20.64% |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Hobro | 1367 | 1485 | 20.64% | 24.07% | 55.29% |
| 2026-08-09 | Esbjerg | 1536 | 1566 | 36.50% | 24.73% | 38.76% |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Hvidovre | 1566 | 1536 | 38.76% | 24.73% | 36.50% |
| 2026-08-09 | Kolding IF | 1525 | 1519 | 41.52% | 24.71% | 33.77% |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Aalborg | 1519 | 1525 | 33.77% | 24.71% | 41.52% |
| 2026-08-09 | Hillerod | 1567 | 1509 | 48.40% | 24.51% | 27.09% |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Vejle BK | 1509 | 1567 | 27.09% | 24.51% | 48.40% |
| 2026-08-09 | Vendsyssel | 1616 | 1411 | 63.33% | 23.04% | 13.63% |
| 2026-08-09 | @ Fredericia | 1411 | 1616 | 13.63% | 23.04% | 63.33% |
| 2026-08-14 | Fredericia | 1525 | 1616 | 28.36% | 24.57% | 47.08% |
| 2026-08-14 | @ Aalborg | 1616 | 1525 | 47.08% | 24.57% | 28.36% |
| 2026-08-14 | Vejle BK | 1519 | 1567 | 33.98% | 24.71% | 41.31% |
| 2026-08-14 | @ Kolding IF | 1567 | 1519 | 41.31% | 24.71% | 33.98% |
| 2026-08-15 | Aarhus Fremad | 1509 | 1592 | 29.24% | 24.60% | 46.16% |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Hillerod | 1592 | 1509 | 46.16% | 24.60% | 29.24% |
| 2026-08-15 | Hobro | 1566 | 1485 | 51.21% | 24.37% | 24.42% |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Esbjerg | 1485 | 1566 | 24.42% | 24.37% | 51.21% |
| 2026-08-15 | Hvidovre | 1436 | 1536 | 27.24% | 24.52% | 48.24% |
| 2026-08-15 | @ HB Koge | 1536 | 1436 | 48.24% | 24.52% | 27.24% |
| 2026-08-16 | AB Gladsaxe | 1411 | 1367 | 46.68% | 24.58% | 28.74% |
| 2026-08-16 | @ Vendsyssel | 1367 | 1411 | 28.74% | 24.58% | 46.68% |
| 2026-08-20 | Hillerod | 1411 | 1509 | 27.56% | 24.53% | 47.91% |
| 2026-08-20 | @ Vendsyssel | 1509 | 1411 | 47.91% | 24.53% | 27.56% |
| 2026-08-21 | Aalborg | 1485 | 1525 | 34.99% | 24.72% | 40.29% |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Hobro | 1525 | 1485 | 40.29% | 24.72% | 34.99% |
| 2026-08-21 | Esbjerg | 1567 | 1566 | 40.79% | 24.72% | 34.49% |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Vejle BK | 1566 | 1567 | 34.49% | 24.72% | 40.79% |
| 2026-08-21 | Aarhus Fremad | 1616 | 1592 | 43.92% | 24.66% | 31.42% |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Fredericia | 1592 | 1616 | 31.42% | 24.66% | 43.92% |
| 2026-08-22 | Hvidovre | 1367 | 1536 | 19.82% | 23.99% | 56.19% |
| 2026-08-22 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1536 | 1367 | 56.19% | 23.99% | 19.82% |
| 2026-08-23 | Kolding IF | 1436 | 1519 | 29.38% | 24.60% | 46.01% |
| 2026-08-23 | @ HB Koge | 1519 | 1436 | 46.01% | 24.60% | 29.38% |
| 2026-08-28 | Vejle BK | 1592 | 1567 | 44.21% | 24.66% | 31.13% |
| 2026-08-28 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1567 | 1592 | 31.13% | 24.66% | 44.21% |
| 2026-08-29 | AB Gladsaxe | 1519 | 1367 | 58.75% | 23.71% | 17.54% |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Kolding IF | 1367 | 1519 | 17.54% | 23.71% | 58.75% |
| 2026-08-29 | HB Koge | 1525 | 1436 | 52.04% | 24.32% | 23.65% |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Aalborg | 1436 | 1525 | 23.65% | 24.32% | 52.04% |
| 2026-08-30 | Hobro | 1509 | 1485 | 43.98% | 24.66% | 31.36% |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Hillerod | 1485 | 1509 | 31.36% | 24.66% | 43.98% |
| 2026-08-30 | Fredericia | 1536 | 1616 | 29.80% | 24.62% | 45.58% |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Hvidovre | 1616 | 1536 | 45.58% | 24.62% | 29.80% |
| 2026-08-30 | Vendsyssel | 1566 | 1411 | 58.98% | 23.68% | 17.33% |
| 2026-08-30 | @ Esbjerg | 1411 | 1566 | 17.33% | 23.68% | 58.98% |
| 2026-09-04 | Hvidovre | 1485 | 1536 | 33.40% | 24.70% | 41.90% |
| 2026-09-04 | @ Hobro | 1536 | 1485 | 41.90% | 24.70% | 33.40% |
| 2026-09-04 | Vendsyssel | 1567 | 1411 | 59.04% | 23.68% | 17.28% |
| 2026-09-04 | @ Vejle BK | 1411 | 1567 | 17.28% | 23.68% | 59.04% |
| 2026-09-04 | Hillerod | 1436 | 1509 | 30.71% | 24.64% | 44.64% |
| 2026-09-04 | @ HB Koge | 1509 | 1436 | 44.64% | 24.64% | 30.71% |
| 2026-09-05 | Aalborg | 1367 | 1525 | 20.92% | 24.10% | 54.98% |
| 2026-09-05 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1525 | 1367 | 54.98% | 24.10% | 20.92% |
| 2026-09-05 | Esbjerg | 1616 | 1566 | 47.35% | 24.56% | 28.09% |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Fredericia | 1566 | 1616 | 28.09% | 24.56% | 47.35% |
| 2026-09-06 | Kolding IF | 1592 | 1519 | 50.25% | 24.42% | 25.33% |
| 2026-09-06 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1519 | 1592 | 25.33% | 24.42% | 50.25% |
| 2026-09-12 | HB Koge | 1566 | 1436 | 56.50% | 23.96% | 19.55% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Esbjerg | 1436 | 1566 | 19.55% | 23.96% | 56.50% |
| 2026-09-12 | AB Gladsaxe | 1509 | 1367 | 57.74% | 23.83% | 18.44% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Hillerod | 1367 | 1509 | 18.44% | 23.83% | 57.74% |
| 2026-09-12 | Vejle BK | 1485 | 1567 | 29.45% | 24.61% | 45.94% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Hobro | 1567 | 1485 | 45.94% | 24.61% | 29.45% |
| 2026-09-12 | Aalborg | 1536 | 1525 | 42.30% | 24.69% | 33.00% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Hvidovre | 1525 | 1536 | 33.00% | 24.69% | 42.30% |
| 2026-09-12 | Fredericia | 1519 | 1616 | 27.64% | 24.54% | 47.82% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Kolding IF | 1616 | 1519 | 47.82% | 24.54% | 27.64% |
| 2026-09-12 | Aarhus Fremad | 1411 | 1592 | 18.79% | 23.87% | 57.34% |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Vendsyssel | 1592 | 1411 | 57.34% | 23.87% | 18.79% |
| 2026-09-19 | Vendsyssel | 1525 | 1411 | 54.85% | 24.11% | 21.05% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Aalborg | 1411 | 1525 | 21.05% | 24.11% | 54.85% |
| 2026-09-19 | Hvidovre | 1592 | 1536 | 48.11% | 24.53% | 27.36% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1536 | 1592 | 27.36% | 24.53% | 48.11% |
| 2026-09-19 | Esbjerg | 1367 | 1566 | 17.23% | 23.67% | 59.10% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1566 | 1367 | 59.10% | 23.67% | 17.23% |
| 2026-09-19 | Vejle BK | 1616 | 1567 | 47.27% | 24.56% | 28.17% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Fredericia | 1567 | 1616 | 28.17% | 24.56% | 47.27% |
| 2026-09-19 | Hobro | 1436 | 1485 | 33.90% | 24.71% | 41.39% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ HB Koge | 1485 | 1436 | 41.39% | 24.71% | 33.90% |
| 2026-09-19 | Hillerod | 1519 | 1509 | 42.15% | 24.70% | 33.15% |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Kolding IF | 1509 | 1519 | 33.15% | 24.70% | 42.15% |
| 2026-10-10 | Aarhus Fremad | 1367 | 1592 | 15.18% | 23.34% | 61.48% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1592 | 1367 | 61.48% | 23.34% | 15.18% |
| 2026-10-10 | Aalborg | 1566 | 1525 | 46.24% | 24.60% | 29.16% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Esbjerg | 1525 | 1566 | 29.16% | 24.60% | 46.24% |
| 2026-10-10 | Fredericia | 1509 | 1616 | 26.40% | 24.48% | 49.12% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Hillerod | 1616 | 1509 | 49.12% | 24.48% | 26.40% |
| 2026-10-10 | Kolding IF | 1485 | 1519 | 35.82% | 24.73% | 39.46% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Hobro | 1519 | 1485 | 39.46% | 24.73% | 35.82% |
| 2026-10-10 | Hvidovre | 1567 | 1536 | 44.81% | 24.64% | 30.55% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Vejle BK | 1536 | 1567 | 30.55% | 24.64% | 44.81% |
| 2026-10-10 | HB Koge | 1411 | 1436 | 37.10% | 24.73% | 38.16% |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Vendsyssel | 1436 | 1411 | 38.16% | 24.73% | 37.10% |
| 2026-10-17 | Vejle BK | 1525 | 1567 | 34.79% | 24.72% | 40.49% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Aalborg | 1567 | 1525 | 40.49% | 24.72% | 34.79% |
| 2026-10-17 | Esbjerg | 1592 | 1566 | 44.30% | 24.65% | 31.05% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1566 | 1592 | 31.05% | 24.65% | 44.30% |
| 2026-10-17 | Hobro | 1616 | 1485 | 56.66% | 23.94% | 19.40% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Fredericia | 1485 | 1616 | 19.40% | 23.94% | 56.66% |
| 2026-10-17 | AB Gladsaxe | 1436 | 1367 | 49.83% | 24.45% | 25.72% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ HB Koge | 1367 | 1436 | 25.72% | 24.45% | 49.83% |
| 2026-10-17 | Hillerod | 1536 | 1509 | 44.51% | 24.65% | 30.84% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Hvidovre | 1509 | 1536 | 30.84% | 24.65% | 44.51% |
| 2026-10-17 | Vendsyssel | 1519 | 1411 | 54.21% | 24.16% | 21.63% |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Kolding IF | 1411 | 1519 | 21.63% | 24.16% | 54.21% |
| 2026-10-24 | Kolding IF | 1367 | 1519 | 21.50% | 24.15% | 54.35% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1519 | 1367 | 54.35% | 24.15% | 21.50% |
| 2026-10-24 | Fredericia | 1566 | 1616 | 33.69% | 24.71% | 41.61% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Esbjerg | 1616 | 1566 | 41.61% | 24.71% | 33.69% |
| 2026-10-24 | Aalborg | 1509 | 1525 | 38.39% | 24.73% | 36.88% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Hillerod | 1525 | 1509 | 36.88% | 24.73% | 38.39% |
| 2026-10-24 | Vendsyssel | 1485 | 1411 | 50.28% | 24.42% | 25.30% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Hobro | 1411 | 1485 | 25.30% | 24.42% | 50.28% |
| 2026-10-24 | HB Koge | 1536 | 1436 | 53.34% | 24.23% | 22.43% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Hvidovre | 1436 | 1536 | 22.43% | 24.23% | 53.34% |
| 2026-10-24 | Aarhus Fremad | 1567 | 1592 | 37.05% | 24.73% | 38.21% |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Vejle BK | 1592 | 1567 | 38.21% | 24.73% | 37.05% |
| 2026-10-31 | Hobro | 1525 | 1485 | 46.14% | 24.60% | 29.26% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Aalborg | 1485 | 1525 | 29.26% | 24.60% | 46.14% |
| 2026-10-31 | Hillerod | 1592 | 1509 | 51.49% | 24.35% | 24.16% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1509 | 1592 | 24.16% | 24.35% | 51.49% |
| 2026-10-31 | Hvidovre | 1566 | 1536 | 44.72% | 24.64% | 30.63% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Esbjerg | 1536 | 1566 | 30.63% | 24.64% | 44.72% |
| 2026-10-31 | AB Gladsaxe | 1616 | 1367 | 66.68% | 22.36% | 10.96% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Fredericia | 1367 | 1616 | 10.96% | 22.36% | 66.68% |
| 2026-10-31 | HB Koge | 1519 | 1436 | 51.35% | 24.36% | 24.29% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Kolding IF | 1436 | 1519 | 24.29% | 24.36% | 51.35% |
| 2026-10-31 | Vejle BK | 1411 | 1567 | 21.20% | 24.12% | 54.68% |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Vendsyssel | 1567 | 1411 | 54.68% | 24.12% | 21.20% |
| 2026-11-07 | Vendsyssel | 1367 | 1411 | 34.41% | 24.71% | 40.88% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1411 | 1367 | 40.88% | 24.71% | 34.41% |
| 2026-11-07 | Aalborg | 1436 | 1525 | 28.65% | 24.58% | 46.77% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ HB Koge | 1525 | 1436 | 46.77% | 24.58% | 28.65% |
| 2026-11-07 | Kolding IF | 1509 | 1519 | 39.23% | 24.73% | 36.04% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Hillerod | 1519 | 1509 | 36.04% | 24.73% | 39.23% |
| 2026-11-07 | Esbjerg | 1485 | 1566 | 29.54% | 24.61% | 45.85% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Hobro | 1566 | 1485 | 45.85% | 24.61% | 29.54% |
| 2026-11-07 | Aarhus Fremad | 1536 | 1592 | 32.87% | 24.69% | 42.44% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Hvidovre | 1592 | 1536 | 42.44% | 24.69% | 32.87% |
| 2026-11-07 | Fredericia | 1567 | 1616 | 33.77% | 24.71% | 41.52% |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Vejle BK | 1616 | 1567 | 41.52% | 24.71% | 33.77% |
| 2026-11-21 | Hobro | 1592 | 1485 | 54.19% | 24.16% | 21.65% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1485 | 1592 | 21.65% | 24.16% | 54.19% |
| 2026-11-21 | AB Gladsaxe | 1566 | 1367 | 62.90% | 23.11% | 13.98% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Esbjerg | 1367 | 1566 | 13.98% | 23.11% | 62.90% |
| 2026-11-21 | Hillerod | 1616 | 1509 | 54.13% | 24.17% | 21.70% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Fredericia | 1509 | 1616 | 21.70% | 24.17% | 54.13% |
| 2026-11-21 | Aalborg | 1519 | 1525 | 39.88% | 24.72% | 35.40% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Kolding IF | 1525 | 1519 | 35.40% | 24.72% | 39.88% |
| 2026-11-21 | HB Koge | 1567 | 1436 | 56.56% | 23.95% | 19.49% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Vejle BK | 1436 | 1567 | 19.49% | 23.95% | 56.56% |
| 2026-11-21 | Hvidovre | 1411 | 1536 | 24.34% | 24.36% | 51.30% |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Vendsyssel | 1536 | 1411 | 51.30% | 24.36% | 24.34% |
| 2026-11-28 | Esbjerg | 1525 | 1566 | 34.88% | 24.72% | 40.40% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Aalborg | 1566 | 1525 | 40.40% | 24.72% | 34.88% |
| 2026-11-28 | Vejle BK | 1367 | 1567 | 17.18% | 23.66% | 59.16% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1567 | 1367 | 59.16% | 23.66% | 17.18% |
| 2026-11-28 | Aarhus Fremad | 1436 | 1592 | 21.16% | 24.12% | 54.72% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ HB Koge | 1592 | 1436 | 54.72% | 24.12% | 21.16% |
| 2026-11-28 | Vendsyssel | 1509 | 1411 | 53.05% | 24.25% | 22.70% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Hillerod | 1411 | 1509 | 22.70% | 24.25% | 53.05% |
| 2026-11-28 | Fredericia | 1485 | 1616 | 23.71% | 24.32% | 51.97% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Hobro | 1616 | 1485 | 51.97% | 24.32% | 23.71% |
| 2026-11-28 | Kolding IF | 1536 | 1519 | 43.11% | 24.68% | 32.21% |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Hvidovre | 1519 | 1536 | 32.21% | 24.68% | 43.11% |
| 2026-12-05 | AB Gladsaxe | 1592 | 1367 | 64.98% | 22.73% | 12.30% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1367 | 1592 | 12.30% | 22.73% | 64.98% |
| 2026-12-05 | Hvidovre | 1616 | 1536 | 50.97% | 24.38% | 24.65% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Fredericia | 1536 | 1616 | 24.65% | 24.38% | 50.97% |
| 2026-12-05 | HB Koge | 1509 | 1436 | 50.11% | 24.43% | 25.46% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Hillerod | 1436 | 1509 | 25.46% | 24.43% | 50.11% |
| 2026-12-05 | Esbjerg | 1519 | 1566 | 34.07% | 24.71% | 41.22% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Kolding IF | 1566 | 1519 | 41.22% | 24.71% | 34.07% |
| 2026-12-05 | Hobro | 1567 | 1485 | 51.29% | 24.36% | 24.35% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Vejle BK | 1485 | 1567 | 24.35% | 24.36% | 51.29% |
| 2026-12-05 | Aalborg | 1411 | 1525 | 25.64% | 24.44% | 49.92% |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Vendsyssel | 1525 | 1411 | 49.92% | 24.44% | 25.64% |
| 2027-02-20 | AB Gladsaxe | 1525 | 1367 | 59.30% | 23.64% | 17.05% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Aalborg | 1367 | 1525 | 17.05% | 23.64% | 59.30% |
| 2027-02-20 | Aarhus Fremad | 1566 | 1592 | 36.96% | 24.73% | 38.31% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Esbjerg | 1592 | 1566 | 38.31% | 24.73% | 36.96% |
| 2027-02-20 | Kolding IF | 1616 | 1519 | 52.97% | 24.25% | 22.77% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Fredericia | 1519 | 1616 | 22.77% | 24.25% | 52.97% |
| 2027-02-20 | Vendsyssel | 1436 | 1411 | 44.16% | 24.66% | 31.18% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ HB Koge | 1411 | 1436 | 31.18% | 24.66% | 44.16% |
| 2027-02-20 | Hillerod | 1485 | 1509 | 37.30% | 24.73% | 37.97% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Hobro | 1509 | 1485 | 37.97% | 24.73% | 37.30% |
| 2027-02-20 | Vejle BK | 1536 | 1567 | 36.41% | 24.73% | 38.86% |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Hvidovre | 1567 | 1536 | 38.86% | 24.73% | 36.41% |
| 2027-02-27 | Fredericia | 1592 | 1616 | 37.37% | 24.73% | 37.90% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1616 | 1592 | 37.90% | 24.73% | 37.37% |
| 2027-02-27 | HB Koge | 1367 | 1436 | 31.02% | 24.65% | 44.33% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1436 | 1367 | 44.33% | 24.65% | 31.02% |
| 2027-02-27 | Hvidovre | 1509 | 1536 | 36.73% | 24.73% | 38.53% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Hillerod | 1536 | 1509 | 38.53% | 24.73% | 36.73% |
| 2027-02-27 | Hobro | 1519 | 1485 | 45.37% | 24.62% | 30.01% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Kolding IF | 1485 | 1519 | 30.01% | 24.62% | 45.37% |
| 2027-02-27 | Aalborg | 1567 | 1525 | 46.32% | 24.59% | 29.08% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Vejle BK | 1525 | 1567 | 29.08% | 24.59% | 46.32% |
| 2027-02-27 | Esbjerg | 1411 | 1566 | 21.26% | 24.13% | 54.61% |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Vendsyssel | 1566 | 1411 | 54.61% | 24.13% | 21.26% |
| 2027-03-06 | Aarhus Fremad | 1525 | 1592 | 31.33% | 24.66% | 44.01% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Aalborg | 1592 | 1525 | 44.01% | 24.66% | 31.33% |
| 2027-03-06 | Hillerod | 1367 | 1509 | 22.57% | 24.24% | 53.19% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1509 | 1367 | 53.19% | 24.24% | 22.57% |
| 2027-03-06 | Vejle BK | 1566 | 1567 | 40.61% | 24.72% | 34.67% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Esbjerg | 1567 | 1566 | 34.67% | 24.72% | 40.61% |
| 2027-03-06 | Fredericia | 1436 | 1616 | 18.95% | 23.89% | 57.15% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ HB Koge | 1616 | 1436 | 57.15% | 23.89% | 18.95% |
| 2027-03-06 | Hobro | 1536 | 1485 | 47.61% | 24.55% | 27.84% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Hvidovre | 1485 | 1536 | 27.84% | 24.55% | 47.61% |
| 2027-03-06 | Kolding IF | 1411 | 1519 | 26.32% | 24.48% | 49.21% |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Vendsyssel | 1519 | 1411 | 49.21% | 24.48% | 26.32% |
| 2027-03-13 | Vendsyssel | 1592 | 1411 | 61.37% | 23.36% | 15.27% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Aarhus Fremad | 1411 | 1592 | 15.27% | 23.36% | 61.37% |
| 2027-03-13 | Hillerod | 1566 | 1509 | 48.31% | 24.52% | 27.17% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Esbjerg | 1509 | 1566 | 27.17% | 24.52% | 48.31% |
| 2027-03-13 | Aalborg | 1616 | 1525 | 52.31% | 24.30% | 23.39% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Fredericia | 1525 | 1616 | 23.39% | 24.30% | 52.31% |
| 2027-03-13 | HB Koge | 1485 | 1436 | 47.15% | 24.56% | 28.28% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Hobro | 1436 | 1485 | 28.28% | 24.56% | 47.15% |
| 2027-03-13 | AB Gladsaxe | 1536 | 1367 | 60.36% | 23.50% | 16.13% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Hvidovre | 1367 | 1536 | 16.13% | 23.50% | 60.36% |
| 2027-03-13 | Kolding IF | 1567 | 1519 | 47.08% | 24.57% | 28.35% |
| 2027-03-13 | @ Vejle BK | 1519 | 1567 | 28.35% | 24.57% | 47.08% |
| 2027-03-20 | Hvidovre | 1525 | 1536 | 39.07% | 24.73% | 36.20% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Aalborg | 1536 | 1525 | 36.20% | 24.73% | 39.07% |
| 2027-03-20 | Hobro | 1367 | 1485 | 25.16% | 24.41% | 50.43% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ AB Gladsaxe | 1485 | 1367 | 50.43% | 24.41% | 25.16% |
| 2027-03-20 | Esbjerg | 1436 | 1566 | 23.88% | 24.33% | 51.79% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ HB Koge | 1566 | 1436 | 51.79% | 24.33% | 23.88% |
| 2027-03-20 | Vejle BK | 1509 | 1567 | 32.56% | 24.69% | 42.75% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Hillerod | 1567 | 1509 | 42.75% | 24.69% | 32.56% |
| 2027-03-20 | Aarhus Fremad | 1519 | 1592 | 30.57% | 24.64% | 44.79% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Kolding IF | 1592 | 1519 | 44.79% | 24.64% | 30.57% |
| 2027-03-20 | Fredericia | 1411 | 1616 | 16.80% | 23.61% | 59.59% |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Vendsyssel | 1616 | 1411 | 59.59% | 23.61% | 16.80% |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2026-07-24 | 37.06% | @ Aalborg | 1504 | 1 | Hillerod | 1530 | 0 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-07-25 | 36.90 | @ Fredericia | 3 | 1579 | 53.95% | HB Koge | 0 | 1473 | 21.87% | 24.18% |
| 2 | 2026-07-24 | 20.98 | @ Aalborg | 1 | 1504 | 37.06% | Hillerod | 0 | 1530 | 38.21% | 24.73% |
| 3 | 2026-07-26 | 16.61 | Aarhus Fremad | 2 | 1576 | 44.95% | @ Hobro | 1 | 1501 | 30.41% | 24.64% |
| 4 | 2026-07-24 | 4.65 | AB Gladsaxe | 2 | 1362 | 13.32% | @ Vejle BK | 2 | 1571 | 63.71% | 22.97% |
| 5 | 2026-07-25 | 3.32 | @ Hvidovre | 2 | 1540 | 56.74% | Vendsyssel | 2 | 1408 | 19.32% | 23.93% |
| 6 | 2026-07-25 | 2.22 | @ Esbjerg | 1 | 1568 | 47.56% | Kolding IF | 1 | 1517 | 27.89% | 24.55% |