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2024-25 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Odense

65 pts

Fredericia · 64 pts

Relegated

FC Roskilde

26 pts

Vendsyssel · 30 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Fredericia

29.07 points above expected

64 points · 34.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vendsyssel

2.29 points below expected

30 points · 27.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Odense 22 14 7 1 49 48 22 +26 41.07 +7.93
2 Fredericia 22 13 1 8 40 44 26 +18 34.93 +5.07
3 Horsens 22 12 4 6 40 38 29 +9 30.42 +9.58
4 Hvidovre 22 10 6 6 36 25 19 +6 32.73 +3.27
5 Kolding IF 22 9 7 6 34 21 13 +8 32.34 +1.66
6 Esbjerg 22 11 1 10 34 40 35 +5 27.08 +6.92
7 Hillerod 22 8 8 6 32 34 28 +6 32.20 -0.20
8 Hobro 22 7 5 10 26 30 38 -8 29.21 -3.21
9 B.93 22 6 5 11 23 25 43 -18 26.51 -3.51
10 HB Koge 22 6 4 12 22 25 41 -16 23.14 -1.14
11 Vendsyssel 22 5 5 12 20 25 37 -12 27.71 -7.71
12 FC Roskilde 22 4 1 17 13 19 43 -24 22.43 -9.43
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Odense Promoted 32 18 11 3 65 69 35 +34 — —
2 Fredericia Promoted 32 20 4 8 64 65 30 +35 — —
3 Horsens 32 15 6 11 51 49 48 +1 — —
4 Kolding IF 32 14 8 10 50 36 28 +8 — —
5 Hvidovre 32 12 9 11 45 33 35 -2 — —
6 Esbjerg 32 13 2 17 41 52 56 -4 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hillerod 32 14 10 8 52 56 38 +18 — —
2 Hobro 32 10 9 13 39 39 51 -12 — —
3 B.93 32 9 8 15 35 42 61 -19 — —
4 HB Koge 32 9 7 16 34 36 57 -21 — —
5 Vendsyssel Relegated 32 7 9 16 30 35 49 -14 — —
6 FC Roskilde Relegated 32 7 5 20 26 37 61 -24 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Odense 1638 65 41.07 +23.93 92.8% 19 31 37 41 45 51 60
Fredericia 1620 64 34.93 +29.07 82.7% 10 25 31 35 39 45 58
Hillerod 1541 52 32.20 +19.80 52.2% 10 23 28 32 36 42 53
Kolding IF 1526 50 32.34 +17.66 64.4% 11 23 28 32 36 42 54
Horsens 1477 51 30.42 +20.58 95.9% 7 21 26 30 34 40 53
Hvidovre 1474 45 32.73 +12.27 74.3% 14 23 29 33 37 42 54
Esbjerg 1427 41 27.08 +13.92 89.8% 7 18 23 27 31 37 49
Hobro 1416 39 29.21 +9.79 32.8% 10 20 25 29 33 39 52
Vendsyssel 1402 30 27.71 +2.29 10.0% 7 18 24 28 32 37 50
B.93 1393 35 26.51 +8.49 30.9% 7 17 23 26 30 36 48
FC Roskilde 1377 26 22.43 +3.57 4.8% 5 14 19 22 26 32 44
HB Koge 1374 34 23.14 +10.86 46.2% 5 14 19 23 27 33 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team B.9 ESB FR FRE HK HIL HOB HOR HVI KI ODE VEN
B.93 —
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-2
6.11
0-0-2
2.01
1-2-1
5.78
1-2-1
3.89
2-1-1
4.77
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.55
1-1-2
5.42
Esbjerg
2-0-0
2.52
 —
2-0-0
3.15
0-1-3
3.89
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
2.39
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-4
4.69
2-0-2
4.56
1-0-3
4.45
0-0-4
3.29
1-0-1
2.49
FC Roskilde
2-0-2
4.77
0-0-2
2.30
 —
0-0-2
1.56
0-1-3
5.41
1-0-3
3.33
0-2-2
4.35
1-0-1
1.98
1-0-1
1.78
0-1-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.32
2-1-1
4.54
Fredericia
2-0-0
3.43
3-1-0
7.05
2-0-0
3.94
 —
1-0-1
3.90
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
3.13
3-0-1
6.33
1-1-2
6.32
3-0-1
6.05
1-1-2
4.54
2-0-0
3.29
HB Koge
1-2-1
5.06
0-0-2
2.33
3-1-0
5.45
1-0-1
1.62
 —
0-0-4
3.73
1-0-3
4.51
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.06
0-1-1
1.84
1-0-1
1.56
1-2-1
4.77
Hillerod
1-2-1
7.06
0-1-1
3.03
3-0-1
7.66
1-0-1
2.56
4-0-0
7.23
 —
1-3-0
6.50
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
2.75
0-1-1
2.00
2-2-0
6.62
Hobro
1-1-2
6.08
0-0-2
3.00
2-2-0
6.55
0-1-1
2.29
3-0-1
6.35
0-3-1
4.38
 —
0-0-2
2.61
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
1.83
3-0-1
5.64
Horsens
1-0-1
2.96
4-0-0
6.18
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-3
4.54
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.81
 —
2-2-0
5.26
1-0-3
5.18
0-2-2
3.54
1-1-0
2.99
Hvidovre
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-2
6.31
1-0-1
3.71
2-1-1
4.54
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
2.81
1-1-0
3.01
0-2-2
5.60
 —
1-2-1
5.31
1-2-1
3.77
2-0-0
3.21
Kolding IF
1-1-0
3.20
3-0-1
6.46
1-1-0
3.62
1-0-3
4.83
1-1-0
3.65
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.10
3-0-1
5.66
1-2-1
5.54
 —
0-2-2
3.80
0-1-1
3.07
Odense
1-1-0
3.99
4-0-0
7.73
2-0-0
4.24
2-1-1
6.33
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.67
2-2-0
7.41
1-2-1
7.16
2-2-0
7.13
 —
1-1-0
4.01
Vendsyssel
2-1-1
5.43
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-2
6.32
0-0-2
2.14
1-2-1
6.08
0-2-2
4.28
1-0-3
5.21
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.23
1-1-0
2.38
0-1-1
1.51
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +8.1
Allowed 0.64 -8.3
Differential 0.93 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.81%8.07%6.51%3.91%1.30%0.78%28.39%
18.07%10.42%7.03%2.86%1.30%1.04%30.73%
26.51%7.03%3.65%2.34%1.30%0.52%21.35%
33.91%2.86%2.34%1.04%1.30%0.26%11.72%
41.30%1.30%1.30%1.30%——5.21%
5+0.78%1.04%0.52%0.26%——2.60%
Total28.39%30.73%21.35%11.72%5.21%2.60%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.87
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%3.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%34.38%
19.38%6.25%9.38%6.25%——31.25%
2—6.25%6.25%——3.12%15.62%
3——3.12%3.12%3.12%—9.38%
43.12%—3.12%———6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total25.00%15.62%25.00%18.75%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.91 -0.59
SD 1.38 1.53 2.20
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%28.12%
1—6.25%15.62%———21.88%
29.38%9.38%—6.25%3.12%—28.12%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
5+———3.12%——3.12%
Total15.62%34.38%25.00%15.62%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.75 -0.12
SD 1.50 1.37 2.18
CV 0.92 0.78 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%18.75%3.12%——31.25%
13.12%9.38%15.62%—3.12%3.12%34.38%
26.25%6.25%—9.38%—3.12%25.00%
3—3.12%——3.12%—6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%21.88%37.50%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.91 -0.75
SD 1.05 1.35 1.59
CV 0.91 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
112.50%9.38%6.25%—3.12%—31.25%
29.38%—————9.38%
312.50%3.12%3.12%———18.75%
43.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
5+3.12%6.25%————9.38%
Total43.75%31.25%15.62%6.25%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.94 +1.09
SD 1.64 1.08 2.07
CV 0.81 1.15 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%15.62%3.12%6.25%—37.50%
16.25%12.50%6.25%—3.12%3.12%31.25%
23.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%———3.12%—6.25%
4—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%6.25%15.62%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.78 -0.66
SD 1.18 1.43 1.88
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
13.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
215.62%3.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%—34.38%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
Total37.50%25.00%21.88%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.19 +0.56
SD 1.50 1.18 1.81
CV 0.86 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
16.25%15.62%—3.12%6.25%—31.25%
26.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%——25.00%
33.12%3.12%———3.12%9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%40.62%15.62%9.38%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.59 -0.38
SD 1.10 1.52 1.90
CV 0.90 0.95 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
19.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
26.25%15.62%6.25%6.25%——34.38%
33.12%3.12%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%34.38%21.88%18.75%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.50 +0.03
SD 1.11 1.22 1.56
CV 0.72 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%9.38%3.12%——40.62%
118.75%9.38%3.12%——3.12%34.38%
23.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total40.62%31.25%15.62%6.25%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.09 -0.06
SD 1.15 1.28 1.63
CV 1.11 1.17 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%3.12%———28.12%
121.88%9.38%12.50%3.12%——46.88%
23.12%6.25%————9.38%
36.25%3.12%3.12%—3.12%—15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total46.88%28.12%18.75%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 0.88 +0.25
SD 1.01 1.04 1.27
CV 0.90 1.19 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
16.25%21.88%3.12%———31.25%
26.25%9.38%6.25%———21.88%
36.25%3.12%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
43.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total28.12%43.75%18.75%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 1.09 +1.06
SD 1.48 0.93 1.74
CV 0.69 0.85 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%3.12%6.25%——34.38%
1—9.38%6.25%15.62%——31.25%
29.38%6.25%6.25%—3.12%—25.00%
33.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%15.62%21.88%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.53 -0.44
SD 1.00 1.27 1.54
CV 0.91 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredericia 64 34.93 +29.07
2 Odense 65 41.07 +23.93
3 Horsens 51 30.42 +20.58
4 Hillerod 52 32.20 +19.80
5 Kolding IF 50 32.34 +17.66

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vendsyssel 30 27.71 +2.29
2 FC Roskilde 26 22.43 +3.57
3 B.93 35 26.51 +8.49
4 Hobro 39 29.21 +9.79
5 HB Koge 34 23.14 +10.86

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Odense 8 Jul 20 – Aug 30 1 in 295
2 Esbjerg 5 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 259
3 HB Koge 3 Sep 29 – Oct 18 1 in 168
4 Kolding IF 4 Apr 21 – May 10 1 in 45
5 Fredericia 4 Mar 14 – Apr 10 1 in 42

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HB Koge 8 Jul 19 – Sep 1 1 in 548
2 FC Roskilde 6 Jul 19 – Aug 20 1 in 168
3 Fredericia 3 Feb 23 – Mar 7 1 in 107
4 B.93 4 Oct 25 – Nov 22 1 in 66
5 Vendsyssel 4 Feb 21 – Mar 14 1 in 44

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredericia 11 Mar 14 – May 23 1 in 48
2 B.93 6 Mar 7 – Apr 17 1 in 30
3 Hillerod 8 Dec 2 – Apr 13 1 in 20
4 Odense 11 Jul 20 – Sep 27 1 in 18
5 Esbjerg 5 Aug 17 – Sep 15 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Odense 6 Nov 25 – Mar 14 1 in 164
2 Vendsyssel 8 Feb 21 – Apr 16 1 in 25
3 HB Koge 10 Jul 19 – Sep 20 1 in 20
4 FC Roskilde 8 Jul 19 – Aug 30 1 in 15
5 Hobro 6 Mar 2 – Apr 11 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Odense56.45%19.46%10.23%5.77%3.34%2.10%1.10%0.75%0.40%0.25%0.12%0.03%
Fredericia14.53%20.24%16.95%12.84%9.64%7.92%6.02%4.41%3.43%2.13%1.27%0.62%
Hillerod5.70%12.16%13.47%12.71%11.97%11.06%9.12%8.31%6.00%4.66%3.09%1.75%
Horsens3.88%8.07%9.48%10.85%11.85%11.52%11.44%9.76%8.59%6.87%4.86%2.83%
Kolding IF6.69%11.55%13.92%12.94%12.27%11.00%8.94%7.53%6.17%4.25%3.17%1.57%
Hvidovre7.45%13.02%13.47%13.11%12.98%10.33%9.03%6.88%5.38%3.99%2.87%1.49%
Esbjerg1.15%3.16%4.67%6.66%7.47%9.12%11.03%11.74%13.14%12.35%11.32%8.19%
Hobro1.99%5.52%7.14%9.00%10.09%10.77%11.17%11.60%10.99%9.45%7.45%4.83%
B.930.81%2.18%3.63%4.98%6.81%8.44%9.82%11.54%12.61%14.02%13.96%11.20%
HB Koge0.17%0.65%1.15%2.31%3.37%4.67%5.90%8.08%11.01%15.60%20.43%26.66%
Vendsyssel1.05%3.65%5.08%7.13%7.65%9.43%11.34%11.90%12.50%12.03%10.58%7.66%
FC Roskilde0.13%0.34%0.81%1.70%2.56%3.64%5.09%7.50%9.78%14.40%20.88%33.17%
Team123456789101112
Odense————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hillerod————————————
Horsens————————————
Kolding IF————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Hobro————————————
B.93————————————
HB Koge————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
FC Roskilde————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.21%
Slight Edge
41.15%22.92%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 18.11 Elo pts.
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.06 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Odense, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.62 * Some Luck: 4.62 to 6.93 * Lucky: 6.93 to 9.24 * Wild Swing: 9.24 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.81 * Close: 1.81 to 2.71 * Off: 2.71 to 3.61 * Way Off: 3.61 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.82 points
Some Luck
05.7814
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.265
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.86%
Horsens
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.81%
FC Roskilde
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.48
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Strong Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.29
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.24
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.124
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1160.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
B.93 26.85% 73.15%
Esbjerg 32.23% 67.77%
FC Roskilde 9.18% 90.82%
Fredericia 82.12% 17.88%
HB Koge 12.32% 87.68%
Hillerod 67.07% 32.93%
Hobro 44.51% 55.49%
Horsens 55.65% 44.35%
Hvidovre 70.36% 29.64%
Kolding IF 68.37% 31.63%
Odense 97.35% 2.65%
Vendsyssel 33.99% 66.01%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
B.93 — 100%
Esbjerg 100% —
FC Roskilde — 100%
Fredericia 100% —
HB Koge — 100%
Hillerod — 100%
Hobro — 100%
Horsens 100% —
Hvidovre 100% —
Kolding IF 100% —
Odense 100% —
Vendsyssel — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2024-07-19 FC Roskilde W 3-0 1470 1438 48.80% 27.90% 23.30% +12.8 3
2024-07-19 @ Vendsyssel L 0-3 1438 1470 23.30% 27.90% 48.80% -12.8 0
2024-07-19 HB Koge W 1-0 1494 1432 52.68% 26.72% 20.60% +4.2 3
2024-07-19 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1432 1494 20.60% 26.72% 52.68% -4.2 0
2024-07-19 Kolding IF D 0-0 1461 1489 40.58% 29.41% 30.01% -0.4 1
2024-07-19 @ B.93 D 0-0 1489 1461 30.01% 29.41% 40.58% +0.4 1
2024-07-20 Odense L 1-2 1407 1543 26.29% 28.77% 44.93% -4.9 0
2024-07-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1543 1407 44.93% 28.77% 26.29% +4.9 3
2024-07-21 Fredericia L 1-3 1461 1485 41.13% 29.35% 29.52% -11.9 0
2024-07-21 @ Horsens W 3-1 1485 1461 29.52% 29.35% 41.13% +11.9 3
2024-07-21 Hobro D 2-2 1506 1478 48.12% 28.07% 23.81% -0.7 1
2024-07-21 @ Hillerod D 2-2 1478 1506 23.81% 28.07% 48.12% +0.7 1
2024-07-26 Esbjerg L 3-6 1479 1402 54.41% 26.10% 19.48% -16.7 1
2024-07-26 @ Hobro W 6-3 1402 1479 19.48% 26.10% 54.41% +16.7 3
2024-07-26 Hillerod W 3-2 1450 1505 36.65% 29.66% 33.69% +5.6 3
2024-07-26 @ Horsens L 2-3 1505 1450 33.69% 29.66% 36.65% -5.6 1
2024-07-26 Hvidovre D 0-0 1489 1499 43.11% 29.08% 27.80% -0.6 2
2024-07-26 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1499 1489 27.80% 29.08% 43.11% +0.6 4
2024-07-26 Odense L 0-4 1427 1548 28.04% 29.13% 42.83% -19.6 0
2024-07-26 @ HB Koge W 4-0 1548 1427 42.83% 29.13% 28.04% +19.6 6
2024-07-27 B.93 L 1-2 1425 1460 39.50% 29.51% 30.99% -6.6 0
2024-07-27 @ FC Roskilde W 2-1 1460 1425 30.99% 29.51% 39.50% +6.6 4
2024-07-27 Vendsyssel W 4-2 1497 1483 46.34% 28.49% 25.17% +7.3 6
2024-07-27 @ Fredericia L 2-4 1483 1497 25.17% 28.49% 46.34% -7.3 3
2024-08-02 FC Roskilde W 2-0 1499 1418 55.00% 25.88% 19.12% +7.3 4
2024-08-02 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1418 1499 19.12% 25.88% 55.00% -7.3 0
2024-08-02 Fredericia W 1-0 1488 1504 42.21% 29.21% 28.58% +5.6 5
2024-08-02 @ Kolding IF L 0-1 1504 1488 28.58% 29.21% 42.21% -5.5 6
2024-08-02 HB Koge W 2-1 1462 1408 51.62% 27.07% 21.31% +4.1 4
2024-08-02 @ Hobro L 1-2 1408 1462 21.31% 27.07% 51.62% -4.1 0
2024-08-02 Vendsyssel L 1-2 1467 1476 43.22% 29.07% 27.71% -7.1 4
2024-08-02 @ B.93 W 2-1 1476 1467 27.71% 29.07% 43.22% +7.1 6
2024-08-03 Hvidovre W 2-0 1567 1499 53.34% 26.49% 20.17% +7.7 9
2024-08-03 @ Odense L 0-2 1499 1567 20.17% 26.49% 53.34% -7.7 4
2024-08-04 Horsens L 0-1 1419 1455 39.40% 29.51% 31.09% -7.0 3
2024-08-04 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1455 1419 31.09% 29.51% 39.40% +7.0 6
2024-08-09 B.93 W 4-0 1491 1460 48.67% 27.93% 23.40% +16.8 7
2024-08-09 @ Hvidovre L 0-4 1460 1491 23.40% 27.93% 48.67% -16.8 4
2024-08-10 Hillerod W 1-0 1575 1507 53.35% 26.49% 20.16% +4.1 12
2024-08-10 @ Odense L 0-1 1507 1575 20.16% 26.49% 53.35% -4.1 4
2024-08-10 Hobro L 0-2 1411 1466 36.64% 29.66% 33.69% -12.6 0
2024-08-10 @ FC Roskilde W 2-0 1466 1411 33.69% 29.66% 36.64% +12.6 7
2024-08-10 Kolding IF W 2-1 1483 1494 42.92% 29.11% 27.97% +5.2 9
2024-08-10 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1494 1483 27.97% 29.11% 42.92% -5.1 5
2024-08-11 Esbjerg W 4-0 1499 1412 55.69% 25.62% 18.70% +13.6 9
2024-08-11 @ Fredericia L 0-4 1412 1499 18.70% 25.62% 55.69% -13.6 3
2024-08-11 Horsens L 0-2 1404 1462 36.23% 29.67% 34.10% -12.5 0
2024-08-11 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1462 1404 34.10% 29.67% 36.23% +12.5 9
2024-08-16 FC Roskilde W 3-2 1513 1398 58.97% 24.23% 16.80% +3.0 12
2024-08-16 @ Fredericia L 2-3 1398 1513 16.80% 24.23% 58.97% -3.0 0
2024-08-16 HB Koge W 4-2 1503 1391 58.62% 24.38% 16.99% +5.0 7
2024-08-16 @ Hillerod L 2-4 1391 1503 16.99% 24.38% 58.62% -5.0 0
2024-08-16 Kolding IF L 0-1 1475 1489 42.51% 29.17% 28.32% -7.4 9
2024-08-16 @ Horsens W 1-0 1489 1475 28.32% 29.17% 42.51% +7.4 8
2024-08-16 Odense L 1-3 1443 1579 26.23% 28.76% 45.01% -8.5 4
2024-08-16 @ B.93 W 3-1 1579 1443 45.01% 28.76% 26.23% +8.5 15
2024-08-17 Hvidovre D 1-1 1479 1508 40.37% 29.43% 30.20% -0.4 8
2024-08-17 @ Hobro D 1-1 1508 1479 30.20% 29.43% 40.37% +0.3 8
2024-08-17 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1398 1488 31.87% 29.58% 38.55% +11.3 6
2024-08-17 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1488 1398 38.55% 29.58% 31.87% -11.3 9
2024-08-20 B.93 L 0-4 1386 1434 37.70% 29.62% 32.68% -24.4 0
2024-08-20 @ HB Koge W 4-0 1434 1386 32.68% 29.62% 37.70% +24.4 7
2024-08-20 Hillerod D 0-0 1509 1508 44.56% 28.84% 26.60% -0.7 9
2024-08-20 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1508 1509 26.60% 28.84% 44.56% +0.7 8
2024-08-20 Horsens L 1-2 1395 1467 34.28% 29.68% 36.05% -6.0 0
2024-08-20 @ FC Roskilde W 2-1 1467 1395 36.05% 29.68% 34.28% +6.0 12
2024-08-21 Esbjerg L 1-2 1496 1410 55.63% 25.64% 18.73% -8.6 8
2024-08-21 @ Kolding IF W 2-1 1410 1496 18.73% 25.64% 55.63% +8.6 9
2024-08-21 Fredericia W 3-0 1587 1516 53.83% 26.32% 19.85% +11.0 18
2024-08-21 @ Odense L 0-3 1516 1587 19.85% 26.32% 53.83% -11.0 12
2024-08-21 Hobro L 0-3 1477 1479 44.18% 28.91% 26.91% -21.0 9
2024-08-21 @ Vendsyssel W 3-0 1479 1477 26.91% 28.91% 44.18% +21.0 11
2024-08-23 Hillerod D 0-0 1459 1508 37.50% 29.63% 32.87% -0.2 8
2024-08-23 @ B.93 D 0-0 1508 1459 32.87% 29.63% 37.50% +0.2 9
2024-08-24 FC Roskilde D 0-0 1488 1389 57.07% 25.05% 17.88% -1.6 9
2024-08-24 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1389 1488 17.88% 25.05% 57.07% +1.6 1
2024-08-24 HB Koge W 4-1 1418 1362 51.87% 26.99% 21.14% +9.9 12
2024-08-24 @ Esbjerg L 1-4 1362 1418 21.14% 26.99% 51.87% -9.9 0
2024-08-24 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1473 1456 46.80% 28.39% 24.81% -0.8 13
2024-08-24 @ Horsens D 1-1 1456 1473 24.81% 28.39% 46.80% +0.8 10
2024-08-25 Hvidovre L 0-1 1505 1508 43.97% 28.95% 27.08% -7.6 12
2024-08-25 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1508 1505 27.08% 28.95% 43.97% +7.6 12
2024-08-25 Odense L 0-3 1500 1599 30.65% 29.47% 39.87% -16.1 11
2024-08-25 @ Hobro W 3-0 1599 1500 39.87% 29.47% 30.65% +16.1 21
2024-08-30 Esbjerg L 1-2 1391 1428 39.24% 29.53% 31.24% -6.6 1
2024-08-30 @ FC Roskilde W 2-1 1428 1391 31.24% 29.53% 39.24% +6.6 15
2024-08-30 Horsens D 3-3 1516 1472 50.16% 27.52% 22.32% -0.6 13
2024-08-30 @ Hvidovre D 3-3 1472 1516 22.32% 27.52% 50.16% +0.6 14
2024-08-30 Kolding IF L 0-3 1509 1486 47.49% 28.23% 24.28% -22.2 9
2024-08-30 @ Hillerod W 3-0 1486 1509 24.28% 28.23% 47.49% +22.2 12
2024-08-30 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1615 1456 63.98% 21.81% 14.21% +5.3 24
2024-08-30 @ Odense L 0-2 1456 1615 14.21% 21.81% 63.98% -5.3 10
2024-09-01 Fredericia L 3-4 1352 1497 25.28% 28.52% 46.20% -4.4 0
2024-09-01 @ HB Koge W 4-3 1497 1352 46.20% 28.52% 25.28% +4.4 15
2024-09-02 B.93 L 0-1 1484 1459 47.77% 28.16% 24.07% -8.1 11
2024-09-02 @ Hobro W 1-0 1459 1484 24.07% 28.16% 47.77% +8.1 11
2024-09-13 Hvidovre W 2-0 1384 1515 26.83% 28.89% 44.28% +14.5 4
2024-09-13 @ FC Roskilde L 0-2 1515 1384 44.28% 28.89% 26.83% -14.5 13
2024-09-14 HB Koge D 1-1 1508 1348 64.24% 21.68% 14.08% -1.9 13
2024-09-14 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1348 1508 14.08% 21.68% 64.24% +1.9 1
2024-09-14 Hillerod L 0-3 1451 1486 39.54% 29.50% 30.95% -19.3 10
2024-09-14 @ Vendsyssel W 3-0 1486 1451 30.95% 29.50% 39.54% +19.3 12
2024-09-14 Odense D 2-2 1473 1620 25.08% 28.46% 46.45% +0.6 15
2024-09-14 @ Horsens D 2-2 1620 1473 46.45% 28.46% 25.08% -0.6 25
2024-09-15 B.93 W 4-3 1435 1467 39.99% 29.46% 30.54% +5.1 18
2024-09-15 @ Esbjerg L 3-4 1467 1435 30.54% 29.46% 39.99% -5.1 11
2024-09-16 Hobro D 1-1 1501 1475 47.91% 28.12% 23.96% -0.9 16
2024-09-16 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1475 1501 23.96% 28.12% 47.91% +0.9 12
2024-09-20 Kolding IF W 1-0 1476 1506 40.29% 29.44% 30.28% +5.8 15
2024-09-20 @ Hobro L 0-1 1506 1476 30.28% 29.44% 40.29% -5.8 13
2024-09-20 Vendsyssel L 0-2 1350 1432 32.85% 29.63% 37.52% -11.6 1
2024-09-20 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1432 1350 37.52% 29.63% 32.85% +11.6 13
2024-09-21 Horsens W 1-0 1462 1474 42.79% 29.13% 28.08% +5.5 14
2024-09-21 @ B.93 L 0-1 1474 1462 28.08% 29.13% 42.79% -5.5 15
2024-09-22 Esbjerg W 3-2 1500 1440 52.40% 26.82% 20.79% +3.8 16
2024-09-22 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1440 1500 20.79% 26.82% 52.40% -3.8 18
2024-09-22 FC Roskilde W 3-2 1619 1399 70.61% 18.20% 11.20% +1.9 28
2024-09-22 @ Odense L 2-3 1399 1619 11.20% 18.20% 70.61% -1.9 4
2024-09-23 Fredericia L 0-3 1506 1500 45.16% 28.73% 26.11% -21.3 12
2024-09-23 @ Hillerod W 3-0 1500 1506 26.11% 28.73% 45.16% +21.3 19
2024-09-27 Odense L 1-2 1500 1621 27.96% 29.11% 42.92% -5.1 13
2024-09-27 @ Kolding IF W 2-1 1621 1500 42.92% 29.11% 27.96% +5.1 31
2024-09-28 B.93 W 3-0 1522 1467 51.64% 27.06% 21.30% +11.8 22
2024-09-28 @ Fredericia L 0-3 1467 1522 21.30% 27.06% 51.64% -11.8 14
2024-09-28 Hobro W 2-0 1468 1482 42.53% 29.17% 28.30% +10.4 18
2024-09-28 @ Horsens L 0-2 1482 1468 28.30% 29.17% 42.53% -10.4 15
2024-09-28 Hvidovre L 0-1 1444 1504 35.92% 29.68% 34.41% -6.6 13
2024-09-28 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1504 1444 34.41% 29.68% 35.92% +6.6 19
2024-09-29 HB Koge L 0-2 1397 1338 52.19% 26.88% 20.92% -16.4 4
2024-09-29 @ FC Roskilde W 2-0 1338 1397 20.92% 26.88% 52.19% +16.4 4
2024-09-29 Hillerod D 1-1 1436 1484 37.69% 29.62% 32.69% -0.2 19
2024-09-29 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1484 1436 32.69% 29.62% 37.69% +0.2 13
2024-10-04 Esbjerg L 0-4 1455 1436 47.05% 28.33% 24.62% -28.8 14
2024-10-04 @ B.93 W 4-0 1436 1455 24.62% 28.33% 47.05% +28.8 22
2024-10-04 FC Roskilde W 4-1 1472 1380 56.21% 25.41% 18.38% +8.6 18
2024-10-04 @ Hobro L 1-4 1380 1472 18.38% 25.41% 56.21% -8.6 4
2024-10-04 HB Koge L 0-3 1626 1354 75.53% 15.32% 9.15% -31.0 31
2024-10-04 @ Odense W 3-0 1354 1626 9.15% 15.32% 75.53% +31.0 7
2024-10-04 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1485 1437 50.74% 27.34% 21.91% -0.8 14
2024-10-04 @ Hillerod D 2-2 1437 1485 21.91% 27.34% 50.74% +0.8 14
2024-10-05 Horsens L 1-2 1534 1479 51.69% 27.05% 21.26% -8.1 22
2024-10-05 @ Fredericia W 2-1 1479 1534 21.26% 27.05% 51.69% +8.2 21
2024-10-07 Kolding IF D 0-0 1511 1495 46.55% 28.44% 25.01% -0.9 20
2024-10-07 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1495 1511 25.01% 28.44% 46.55% +0.9 14
2024-10-18 B.93 L 1-2 1438 1427 45.95% 28.57% 25.48% -7.4 14
2024-10-18 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1427 1438 25.48% 28.57% 45.95% +7.4 17
2024-10-18 Hillerod W 3-1 1496 1484 46.10% 28.54% 25.36% +8.2 17
2024-10-18 @ Kolding IF L 1-3 1484 1496 25.36% 28.54% 46.10% -8.2 14
2024-10-18 Hobro W 4-1 1385 1480 31.18% 29.52% 39.30% +16.2 10
2024-10-18 @ HB Koge L 1-4 1480 1385 39.30% 29.52% 31.18% -16.2 18
2024-10-18 Odense L 1-5 1372 1595 18.35% 25.39% 56.26% -11.1 4
2024-10-18 @ FC Roskilde W 5-1 1595 1372 56.26% 25.39% 18.35% +11.1 34
2024-10-19 Fredericia L 0-3 1465 1525 35.91% 29.68% 34.41% -18.0 22
2024-10-19 @ Esbjerg W 3-0 1525 1465 34.41% 29.68% 35.91% +18.0 25
2024-10-20 Hvidovre W 2-1 1487 1510 41.23% 29.34% 29.43% +5.4 24
2024-10-20 @ Horsens L 1-2 1510 1487 29.43% 29.34% 41.23% -5.4 20
2024-10-25 FC Roskilde L 0-1 1434 1361 54.01% 26.25% 19.74% -9.0 17
2024-10-25 @ B.93 W 1-0 1361 1434 19.74% 26.25% 54.01% +8.9 7
2024-10-25 Horsens W 2-0 1476 1492 42.15% 29.22% 28.62% +10.5 17
2024-10-25 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1492 1476 28.62% 29.22% 42.15% -10.5 24
2024-10-25 Kolding IF L 0-1 1402 1504 30.18% 29.43% 40.40% -5.8 10
2024-10-25 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1504 1402 40.40% 29.43% 30.18% +5.8 20
2024-10-26 Esbjerg W 2-1 1606 1447 64.16% 21.72% 14.12% +2.6 37
2024-10-26 @ Odense L 1-2 1447 1606 14.12% 21.72% 64.16% -2.6 22
2024-10-26 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1505 1430 54.12% 26.21% 19.67% +6.5 23
2024-10-26 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1430 1505 19.67% 26.21% 54.12% -6.5 14
2024-10-27 Fredericia L 1-4 1464 1543 33.26% 29.65% 37.09% -14.4 18
2024-10-27 @ Hobro W 4-1 1543 1464 37.09% 29.65% 33.26% +14.4 28
2024-11-01 B.93 W 3-0 1482 1425 51.89% 26.98% 21.13% +11.7 27
2024-11-01 @ Horsens L 0-3 1425 1482 21.13% 26.98% 51.89% -11.7 17
2024-11-01 Hvidovre W 1-0 1486 1511 40.97% 29.37% 29.67% +5.7 20
2024-11-01 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1511 1486 29.67% 29.37% 40.97% -5.7 23
2024-11-02 HB Koge D 1-1 1424 1396 48.19% 28.05% 23.75% -0.9 15
2024-11-02 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1396 1424 23.75% 28.05% 48.19% +0.9 11
2024-11-02 Kolding IF L 0-1 1370 1510 25.75% 28.64% 45.61% -5.1 7
2024-11-02 @ FC Roskilde W 1-0 1510 1370 45.61% 28.64% 25.75% +5.1 23
2024-11-03 Hobro W 3-2 1444 1450 43.67% 29.00% 27.33% +4.8 25
2024-11-03 @ Esbjerg L 2-3 1450 1444 27.33% 29.00% 43.67% -4.8 18
2024-11-03 Odense L 1-4 1558 1609 37.27% 29.64% 33.09% -15.6 28
2024-11-03 @ Fredericia W 4-1 1609 1558 33.09% 29.64% 37.27% +15.6 40
2024-11-08 Fredericia L 0-5 1413 1542 27.04% 28.94% 44.03% -23.4 17
2024-11-08 @ B.93 W 5-0 1542 1413 44.03% 28.94% 27.04% +23.5 31
2024-11-08 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1515 1423 56.33% 25.36% 18.31% -1.6 24
2024-11-08 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1423 1515 18.31% 25.36% 56.33% +1.6 16
2024-11-09 Horsens W 3-2 1625 1493 60.94% 23.32% 15.74% +2.8 43
2024-11-09 @ Odense L 2-3 1493 1625 15.74% 23.32% 60.94% -2.8 27
2024-11-10 FC Roskilde W 2-0 1449 1364 55.37% 25.74% 18.89% +7.2 28
2024-11-10 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1364 1449 18.89% 25.74% 55.37% -7.2 7
2024-11-10 Hvidovre W 1-0 1397 1505 29.43% 29.33% 41.24% +7.3 14
2024-11-10 @ HB Koge L 0-1 1505 1397 41.24% 29.33% 29.43% -7.3 23
2024-11-11 Hillerod D 2-2 1445 1492 37.89% 29.61% 32.50% -0.1 19
2024-11-11 @ Hobro D 2-2 1492 1445 32.50% 29.61% 37.89% +0.1 21
2024-11-22 FC Roskilde W 2-0 1498 1357 62.04% 22.79% 15.17% +5.7 26
2024-11-22 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1357 1498 15.17% 22.79% 62.04% -5.7 7
2024-11-22 Hobro L 1-2 1390 1445 36.75% 29.66% 33.59% -6.3 17
2024-11-22 @ B.93 W 2-1 1445 1390 33.59% 29.66% 36.75% +6.3 22
2024-11-24 Esbjerg L 1-2 1492 1456 49.21% 27.79% 23.00% -7.8 21
2024-11-24 @ Hillerod W 2-1 1456 1492 23.00% 27.79% 49.21% +7.9 31
2024-11-24 HB Koge D 0-0 1491 1404 55.64% 25.63% 18.73% -1.5 28
2024-11-24 @ Horsens D 0-0 1404 1491 18.73% 25.63% 55.64% +1.5 15
2024-11-24 Kolding IF W 1-0 1566 1514 51.32% 27.17% 21.51% +4.3 34
2024-11-24 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1514 1566 21.51% 27.17% 51.32% -4.4 24
2024-11-25 Odense D 1-1 1425 1627 19.92% 26.36% 53.72% +1.2 17
2024-11-25 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1627 1425 53.72% 26.36% 19.92% -1.3 44
2024-11-29 Hobro W 1-0 1504 1451 51.41% 27.14% 21.45% +4.4 29
2024-11-29 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1451 1504 21.45% 27.14% 51.41% -4.3 22
2024-11-29 Horsens L 1-2 1509 1489 47.16% 28.30% 24.53% -7.6 24
2024-11-29 @ Kolding IF W 2-1 1489 1509 24.53% 28.30% 47.16% +7.6 31
2024-11-30 Fredericia L 0-2 1352 1570 18.72% 25.63% 55.64% -7.2 7
2024-11-30 @ FC Roskilde W 2-0 1570 1352 55.64% 25.63% 18.72% +7.2 37
2024-12-01 B.93 D 3-3 1626 1384 72.77% 16.95% 10.28% -1.5 45
2024-12-01 @ Odense D 3-3 1384 1626 10.28% 16.95% 72.77% +1.5 18
2024-12-01 Esbjerg W 2-0 1426 1464 39.12% 29.54% 31.35% +11.2 20
2024-12-01 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1464 1426 31.35% 29.54% 39.12% -11.2 31
2024-12-02 Hillerod L 1-5 1405 1484 33.37% 29.65% 36.97% -18.6 15
2024-12-02 @ HB Koge W 5-1 1484 1405 36.97% 29.65% 33.37% +18.6 24
2025-02-21 Hvidovre W 4-2 1385 1508 27.70% 29.07% 43.23% +11.0 21
2025-02-21 @ B.93 L 2-4 1508 1385 43.23% 29.07% 27.70% -11.0 29
2025-02-21 Odense D 1-1 1503 1625 27.82% 29.09% 43.09% +0.5 25
2025-02-21 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1625 1503 43.09% 29.09% 27.82% -0.5 46
2025-02-21 Vendsyssel W 1-0 1447 1437 45.75% 28.61% 25.64% +5.1 25
2025-02-21 @ Hobro L 0-1 1437 1447 25.64% 28.61% 45.75% -5.1 20
2025-02-22 Kolding IF L 0-1 1453 1502 37.60% 29.63% 32.78% -6.8 31
2025-02-22 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1502 1453 32.78% 29.63% 37.60% +6.8 27
2025-02-23 FC Roskilde L 1-2 1497 1344 63.32% 22.15% 14.53% -9.5 31
2025-02-23 @ Horsens W 2-1 1344 1497 14.53% 22.15% 63.32% +9.5 10
2025-02-23 HB Koge L 1-2 1577 1387 67.48% 19.95% 12.57% -9.9 37
2025-02-23 @ Fredericia W 2-1 1387 1577 12.57% 19.95% 67.48% +9.9 18
2025-02-27 Fredericia W 1-0 1497 1567 34.56% 29.68% 35.76% +6.6 32
2025-02-27 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1567 1497 35.76% 29.68% 34.56% -6.6 37
2025-02-28 Esbjerg L 0-2 1397 1446 37.57% 29.63% 32.80% -12.8 18
2025-02-28 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1446 1397 32.80% 29.63% 37.57% +12.8 34
2025-02-28 Horsens L 3-4 1432 1487 36.70% 29.66% 33.63% -5.8 20
2025-02-28 @ Vendsyssel W 4-3 1487 1432 33.63% 29.66% 36.70% +5.8 34
2025-03-01 B.93 W 3-0 1508 1396 58.74% 24.34% 16.93% +9.4 30
2025-03-01 @ Kolding IF L 0-3 1396 1508 16.93% 24.34% 58.74% -9.4 21
2025-03-01 Hillerod L 1-2 1354 1503 24.82% 28.39% 46.79% -4.7 10
2025-03-01 @ FC Roskilde W 2-1 1503 1354 46.79% 28.39% 24.82% +4.7 28
2025-03-02 Hobro D 1-1 1624 1452 65.55% 20.99% 13.46% -2.0 47
2025-03-02 @ Odense D 1-1 1452 1624 13.46% 20.99% 65.55% +2.0 26
2025-03-07 HB Koge D 1-1 1387 1384 44.80% 28.80% 26.40% -0.7 22
2025-03-07 @ B.93 D 1-1 1384 1387 26.40% 28.80% 44.80% +0.7 19
2025-03-07 Hillerod L 0-2 1561 1508 51.42% 27.14% 21.45% -16.2 37
2025-03-07 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1508 1561 21.45% 27.14% 51.42% +16.2 31
2025-03-08 Horsens L 1-3 1454 1493 38.99% 29.55% 31.47% -11.4 26
2025-03-08 @ Hobro W 3-1 1493 1454 31.47% 29.55% 38.99% +11.4 37
2025-03-08 Kolding IF D 1-1 1622 1518 57.79% 24.75% 17.46% -1.5 48
2025-03-08 @ Odense D 1-1 1518 1622 17.46% 24.75% 57.79% +1.5 31
2025-03-09 Hvidovre L 0-1 1459 1504 38.16% 29.60% 32.24% -6.9 34
2025-03-09 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1504 1459 32.24% 29.60% 38.16% +6.9 35
2025-03-09 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1349 1426 33.61% 29.66% 36.73% +10.9 13
2025-03-09 @ FC Roskilde L 1-3 1426 1349 36.73% 29.66% 33.61% -10.9 20
2025-03-14 B.93 D 1-1 1524 1386 61.72% 22.94% 15.33% -1.8 32
2025-03-14 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1386 1524 15.33% 22.94% 61.72% +1.8 23
2025-03-14 Esbjerg W 2-1 1504 1452 51.37% 27.15% 21.48% +4.1 40
2025-03-14 @ Horsens L 1-2 1452 1504 21.48% 27.15% 51.37% -4.1 34
2025-03-14 FC Roskilde W 2-1 1385 1360 47.73% 28.17% 24.10% +4.6 22
2025-03-14 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1360 1385 24.10% 28.17% 47.73% -4.6 13
2025-03-14 Fredericia L 0-1 1415 1544 26.99% 28.93% 44.08% -5.3 20
2025-03-14 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1544 1415 44.08% 28.93% 26.99% +5.3 40
2025-03-14 Hobro W 1-0 1519 1442 54.45% 26.09% 19.46% +4.0 34
2025-03-14 @ Kolding IF L 0-1 1442 1519 19.46% 26.09% 54.45% -4.0 26
2025-03-14 Odense D 0-0 1511 1621 29.26% 29.31% 41.43% +0.5 36
2025-03-14 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1621 1511 41.43% 29.31% 29.26% -0.5 49

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2025-03-28 Hillerod D 0-0 1410 1522 28.96% 29.27% 41.76% +0.5 1
2025-03-28 @ Vendsyssel D 0-0 1522 1410 41.76% 29.27% 28.96% -0.5 1
2025-03-29 Esbjerg L 0-3 1511 1448 52.74% 26.70% 20.56% -24.0 0
2025-03-29 @ Hvidovre W 3-0 1448 1511 20.56% 26.70% 52.74% +24.1 3
2025-03-29 Fredericia L 0-1 1523 1550 40.77% 29.39% 29.84% -7.2 0
2025-03-29 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1550 1523 29.84% 29.39% 40.77% +7.2 3
2025-03-29 HB Koge D 2-2 1388 1389 44.25% 28.90% 26.86% -0.5 1
2025-03-29 @ B.93 D 2-2 1389 1388 26.86% 28.90% 44.25% +0.5 1
2025-03-30 FC Roskilde D 1-1 1438 1356 55.18% 25.81% 19.01% -1.4 1
2025-03-30 @ Hobro D 1-1 1356 1438 19.01% 25.81% 55.18% +1.4 1
2025-03-30 Horsens W 1-0 1620 1508 58.67% 24.37% 16.97% +3.4 3
2025-03-30 @ Odense L 0-1 1508 1620 16.97% 24.37% 58.67% -3.4 0
2025-04-04 B.93 L 2-3 1357 1387 40.21% 29.44% 30.34% -6.4 1
2025-04-04 @ FC Roskilde W 3-2 1387 1357 30.34% 29.44% 40.21% +6.4 4
2025-04-04 Hobro W 2-0 1522 1437 55.41% 25.72% 18.86% +7.2 4
2025-04-04 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1437 1522 18.86% 25.72% 55.41% -7.2 1
2025-04-04 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1390 1410 41.58% 29.29% 29.13% -0.5 2
2025-04-04 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1410 1390 29.13% 29.29% 41.58% +0.5 2
2025-04-05 Odense W 1-0 1557 1624 35.06% 29.68% 35.26% +6.5 6
2025-04-05 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1624 1557 35.26% 29.68% 35.06% -6.5 3
2025-04-06 Hvidovre W 1-0 1505 1487 46.86% 28.37% 24.76% +5.0 3
2025-04-06 @ Horsens L 0-1 1487 1505 24.76% 28.37% 46.86% -4.9 0
2025-04-06 Kolding IF L 1-2 1472 1516 38.26% 29.59% 32.15% -6.5 3
2025-04-06 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1516 1472 32.15% 29.59% 38.26% +6.5 3
2025-04-10 Horsens W 5-1 1563 1510 51.51% 27.11% 21.39% +12.9 9
2025-04-10 @ Fredericia L 1-5 1510 1563 21.39% 27.11% 51.51% -12.9 3
2025-04-11 B.93 D 0-0 1430 1394 49.25% 27.77% 22.97% -1.1 2
2025-04-11 @ Hobro D 0-0 1394 1430 22.97% 27.77% 49.25% +1.1 5
2025-04-11 Hvidovre L 1-3 1523 1482 49.83% 27.61% 22.56% -13.7 3
2025-04-11 @ Kolding IF W 3-1 1482 1523 22.56% 27.61% 49.83% +13.7 3
2025-04-11 Odense L 0-6 1465 1617 24.56% 28.31% 47.12% -25.7 3
2025-04-11 @ Esbjerg W 6-0 1617 1465 47.12% 28.31% 24.56% +25.7 6
2025-04-12 FC Roskilde D 0-0 1411 1351 52.37% 26.83% 20.81% -1.3 3
2025-04-12 @ Vendsyssel D 0-0 1351 1411 20.81% 26.83% 52.37% +1.3 2
2025-04-13 Hillerod L 0-2 1389 1529 25.81% 28.66% 45.53% -9.7 2
2025-04-13 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1529 1389 45.53% 28.66% 25.81% +9.7 7
2025-04-16 Fredericia D 0-0 1496 1576 33.09% 29.64% 37.27% +0.2 4
2025-04-16 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1576 1496 37.27% 29.64% 33.09% -0.2 10
2025-04-16 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1429 1410 47.03% 28.34% 24.64% +8.0 5
2025-04-16 @ Hobro L 1-3 1410 1429 24.64% 28.34% 47.03% -8.0 3
2025-04-17 HB Koge D 1-1 1352 1380 40.60% 29.40% 29.99% -0.4 3
2025-04-17 @ FC Roskilde D 1-1 1380 1352 29.99% 29.40% 40.60% +0.4 3
2025-04-17 Hillerod W 1-0 1395 1539 25.38% 28.55% 46.07% +7.9 8
2025-04-17 @ B.93 L 0-1 1539 1395 46.07% 28.55% 25.38% -7.9 7
2025-04-17 Kolding IF W 4-3 1643 1509 61.26% 23.17% 15.57% +2.7 9
2025-04-17 @ Odense L 3-4 1509 1643 15.57% 23.17% 61.26% -2.7 3
2025-04-18 Esbjerg W 3-2 1497 1440 52.00% 26.95% 21.05% +3.8 6
2025-04-18 @ Horsens L 2-3 1440 1497 21.05% 26.95% 52.00% -3.8 3
2025-04-20 B.93 W 3-1 1402 1403 44.27% 28.89% 26.84% +8.6 6
2025-04-20 @ Vendsyssel L 1-3 1403 1402 26.84% 28.89% 44.27% -8.6 8
2025-04-20 FC Roskilde W 5-2 1531 1351 66.30% 20.59% 13.11% +5.1 10
2025-04-20 @ Hillerod L 2-5 1351 1531 13.11% 20.59% 66.30% -5.1 3
2025-04-21 Hobro L 0-2 1380 1437 36.45% 29.67% 33.88% -12.5 3
2025-04-21 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1437 1380 33.88% 29.67% 36.45% +12.5 8
2025-04-21 Horsens W 2-0 1506 1501 45.15% 28.73% 26.11% +9.8 6
2025-04-21 @ Kolding IF L 0-2 1501 1506 26.11% 28.73% 45.15% -9.7 6
2025-04-21 Odense W 2-1 1496 1646 24.79% 28.38% 46.83% +7.5 7
2025-04-21 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1646 1496 46.83% 28.38% 24.79% -7.6 9
2025-04-22 Fredericia L 0-2 1436 1576 25.75% 28.64% 45.60% -9.6 3
2025-04-22 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1576 1436 45.60% 28.64% 25.75% +9.6 13
2025-04-25 HB Koge W 3-0 1536 1367 65.13% 21.22% 13.66% +7.3 13
2025-04-25 @ Hillerod L 0-3 1367 1536 13.66% 21.22% 65.13% -7.3 3
2025-04-25 Hobro W 5-0 1394 1449 36.69% 29.66% 33.65% +27.7 11
2025-04-25 @ B.93 L 0-5 1449 1394 33.65% 29.66% 36.69% -27.7 8
2025-04-25 Kolding IF L 2-3 1491 1516 41.01% 29.36% 29.63% -6.5 6
2025-04-25 @ Horsens W 3-2 1516 1491 29.63% 29.36% 41.01% +6.5 9
2025-04-26 Hvidovre D 1-1 1638 1503 61.32% 23.14% 15.54% -1.7 10
2025-04-26 @ Odense D 1-1 1503 1638 15.54% 23.14% 61.32% +1.7 8
2025-04-26 Vendsyssel W 2-1 1346 1410 35.47% 29.68% 34.85% +6.1 6
2025-04-26 @ FC Roskilde L 1-2 1410 1346 34.85% 29.68% 35.47% -6.1 6
2025-04-27 Esbjerg D 1-1 1586 1426 64.16% 21.72% 14.12% -1.9 14
2025-04-27 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1426 1586 14.12% 21.72% 64.16% +1.9 4
2025-05-02 Hillerod D 0-0 1422 1543 27.88% 29.10% 43.02% +0.6 9
2025-05-02 @ Hobro D 0-0 1543 1422 43.02% 29.10% 27.88% -0.6 14
2025-05-02 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1422 1404 46.83% 28.38% 24.79% -0.6 12
2025-05-02 @ B.93 D 2-2 1404 1422 24.79% 28.38% 46.83% +0.6 7
2025-05-03 Fredericia D 1-1 1636 1584 51.35% 27.16% 21.50% -1.1 11
2025-05-03 @ Odense D 1-1 1584 1636 21.50% 27.16% 51.35% +1.1 15
2025-05-03 Horsens L 0-1 1428 1485 36.51% 29.67% 33.83% -6.7 4
2025-05-03 @ Esbjerg W 1-0 1485 1428 33.83% 29.67% 36.51% +6.7 9
2025-05-03 Kolding IF L 0-1 1505 1522 42.08% 29.23% 28.69% -7.4 8
2025-05-03 @ Hvidovre W 1-0 1522 1505 28.69% 29.23% 42.08% +7.4 12
2025-05-04 FC Roskilde W 4-3 1360 1352 45.46% 28.67% 25.86% +4.5 6
2025-05-04 @ HB Koge L 3-4 1352 1360 25.86% 28.67% 45.46% -4.5 6
2025-05-08 B.93 W 5-2 1543 1421 59.80% 23.85% 16.35% +6.6 17
2025-05-08 @ Hillerod L 2-5 1421 1543 16.35% 23.85% 59.80% -6.6 12
2025-05-09 Hobro D 1-1 1348 1422 33.97% 29.67% 36.36% +0.1 7
2025-05-09 @ FC Roskilde D 1-1 1422 1348 36.36% 29.67% 33.97% -0.1 10
2025-05-09 Hvidovre W 5-1 1585 1498 55.71% 25.60% 18.68% +11.3 18
2025-05-09 @ Fredericia L 1-5 1498 1585 18.68% 25.60% 55.71% -11.3 8
2025-05-09 Odense D 2-2 1491 1635 25.38% 28.55% 46.07% +0.5 10
2025-05-09 @ Horsens D 2-2 1635 1491 46.07% 28.55% 25.38% -0.6 12
2025-05-10 Esbjerg W 2-1 1530 1421 58.26% 24.55% 17.20% +3.3 15
2025-05-10 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1421 1530 17.20% 24.55% 58.26% -3.3 4
2025-05-10 HB Koge L 0-1 1405 1365 49.78% 27.63% 22.59% -8.4 7
2025-05-10 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1365 1405 22.59% 27.63% 49.78% +8.4 9
2025-05-15 Hvidovre W 2-0 1418 1487 34.80% 29.68% 35.51% +12.3 7
2025-05-15 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1487 1418 35.51% 29.68% 34.80% -12.3 8
2025-05-16 B.93 W 2-1 1373 1415 38.62% 29.57% 31.81% +5.7 12
2025-05-16 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1415 1373 31.81% 29.57% 38.62% -5.7 12
2025-05-16 Hillerod W 4-2 1348 1549 20.07% 26.44% 53.50% +13.0 10
2025-05-16 @ FC Roskilde L 2-4 1549 1348 53.50% 26.44% 20.07% -13.0 17
2025-05-16 Hobro W 2-0 1396 1422 40.85% 29.38% 29.77% +10.8 10
2025-05-16 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1422 1396 29.77% 29.38% 40.85% -10.8 10
2025-05-17 Fredericia L 0-3 1492 1596 29.94% 29.40% 40.66% -15.8 10
2025-05-17 @ Horsens W 3-0 1596 1492 40.66% 29.40% 29.94% +15.8 21
2025-05-17 Odense D 1-1 1533 1635 30.32% 29.44% 40.24% +0.3 16
2025-05-17 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1635 1533 40.24% 29.44% 30.32% -0.3 13
2025-05-22 FC Roskilde L 0-2 1409 1361 50.78% 27.33% 21.88% -16.1 12
2025-05-22 @ B.93 W 2-0 1361 1409 21.88% 27.33% 50.78% +16.1 13
2025-05-22 HB Koge W 2-1 1411 1379 48.82% 27.89% 23.29% +4.4 13
2025-05-22 @ Hobro L 1-2 1379 1411 23.29% 27.89% 48.82% -4.4 12
2025-05-22 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1536 1407 60.70% 23.44% 15.87% +5.2 20
2025-05-22 @ Hillerod L 1-3 1407 1536 15.87% 23.44% 60.70% -5.2 10
2025-05-23 Esbjerg W 4-2 1634 1430 68.89% 19.17% 11.94% +3.3 16
2025-05-23 @ Odense L 2-4 1430 1634 11.94% 19.17% 68.89% -3.3 7
2025-05-23 Horsens D 1-1 1474 1476 44.19% 28.91% 26.90% -0.6 9
2025-05-23 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1476 1474 26.90% 28.91% 44.19% +0.6 11
2025-05-23 Kolding IF W 2-0 1612 1533 54.68% 26.00% 19.32% +7.4 24
2025-05-23 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1533 1612 19.32% 26.00% 54.68% -7.4 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-10-04 9.15% HB Koge 1354 3 @ Odense 1626 0
2 2025-02-23 12.57% HB Koge 1387 2 @ Fredericia 1577 1
3 2025-02-23 14.53% FC Roskilde 1344 2 @ Horsens 1497 1
4 2024-08-21 18.73% Esbjerg 1410 2 @ Kolding IF 1496 1
5 2024-07-26 19.48% Esbjerg 1402 6 @ Hobro 1479 3
6 2024-10-25 19.74% FC Roskilde 1361 1 @ B.93 1434 0
7 2025-05-16 20.07% @ FC Roskilde 1348 4 Hillerod 1549 2
8 2025-03-29 20.56% Esbjerg 1448 3 @ Hvidovre 1511 0
9 2024-09-29 20.92% HB Koge 1338 2 @ FC Roskilde 1397 0
10 2024-10-05 21.26% Horsens 1479 2 @ Fredericia 1534 1
11 2025-03-07 21.45% Hillerod 1508 2 @ Fredericia 1561 0
12 2025-05-22 21.88% FC Roskilde 1361 2 @ B.93 1409 0
13 2025-04-11 22.56% Hvidovre 1482 3 @ Kolding IF 1523 1
14 2025-05-10 22.59% HB Koge 1365 1 @ Vendsyssel 1405 0
15 2024-11-24 23.00% Esbjerg 1456 2 @ Hillerod 1492 1
16 2024-09-02 24.07% B.93 1459 1 @ Hobro 1484 0
17 2024-08-30 24.28% Kolding IF 1486 3 @ Hillerod 1509 0
18 2024-11-29 24.53% Horsens 1489 2 @ Kolding IF 1509 1
19 2024-10-04 24.62% Esbjerg 1436 4 @ B.93 1455 0
20 2025-04-21 24.79% @ Hvidovre 1496 2 Odense 1646 1
21 2025-04-17 25.38% @ B.93 1395 1 Hillerod 1539 0
22 2024-10-18 25.48% B.93 1427 2 @ Vendsyssel 1438 1
23 2024-09-23 26.11% Fredericia 1500 3 @ Hillerod 1506 0
24 2024-09-13 26.83% @ FC Roskilde 1384 2 Hvidovre 1515 0
25 2024-08-21 26.91% Hobro 1479 3 @ Vendsyssel 1477 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-10-04 31.05 HB Koge 3 1354 9.15% @ Odense 0 1626 75.53% 15.32%
2 2024-10-04 28.76 Esbjerg 4 1436 24.62% @ B.93 0 1455 47.05% 28.33%
3 2025-04-25 27.69 @ B.93 5 1394 36.69% Hobro 0 1449 33.65% 29.66%
4 2025-04-11 25.72 Odense 6 1617 47.12% @ Esbjerg 0 1465 24.56% 28.31%
5 2024-08-20 24.36 B.93 4 1434 32.68% @ HB Koge 0 1386 37.70% 29.62%
6 2025-03-29 24.06 Esbjerg 3 1448 20.56% @ Hvidovre 0 1511 52.74% 26.70%
7 2024-11-08 23.45 Fredericia 5 1542 44.03% @ B.93 0 1413 27.04% 28.94%
8 2024-08-30 22.18 Kolding IF 3 1486 24.28% @ Hillerod 0 1509 47.49% 28.23%
9 2024-09-23 21.33 Fredericia 3 1500 26.11% @ Hillerod 0 1506 45.16% 28.73%
10 2024-08-21 20.98 Hobro 3 1479 26.91% @ Vendsyssel 0 1477 44.18% 28.91%
11 2024-07-26 19.59 Odense 4 1548 42.83% @ HB Koge 0 1427 28.04% 29.13%
12 2024-09-14 19.31 Hillerod 3 1486 30.95% @ Vendsyssel 0 1451 39.54% 29.50%
13 2024-12-02 18.61 Hillerod 5 1484 36.97% @ HB Koge 1 1405 33.37% 29.65%
14 2024-10-19 18.01 Fredericia 3 1525 34.41% @ Esbjerg 0 1465 35.91% 29.68%
15 2024-08-09 16.84 @ Hvidovre 4 1491 48.67% B.93 0 1460 23.40% 27.93%
16 2024-07-26 16.66 Esbjerg 6 1402 19.48% @ Hobro 3 1479 54.41% 26.10%
17 2024-09-29 16.43 HB Koge 2 1338 20.92% @ FC Roskilde 0 1397 52.19% 26.88%
18 2025-03-07 16.24 Hillerod 2 1508 21.45% @ Fredericia 0 1561 51.42% 27.14%
19 2024-10-18 16.21 @ HB Koge 4 1385 31.18% Hobro 1 1480 39.30% 29.52%
20 2025-05-22 16.08 FC Roskilde 2 1361 21.88% @ B.93 0 1409 50.78% 27.33%
21 2024-08-25 16.06 Odense 3 1599 39.87% @ Hobro 0 1500 30.65% 29.47%
22 2025-05-17 15.77 Fredericia 3 1596 40.66% @ Horsens 0 1492 29.94% 29.40%
23 2024-11-03 15.60 Odense 4 1609 33.09% @ Fredericia 1 1558 37.27% 29.64%
24 2024-09-13 14.47 @ FC Roskilde 2 1384 26.83% Hvidovre 0 1515 44.28% 28.89%
25 2024-10-27 14.38 Fredericia 4 1543 37.09% @ Hobro 1 1464 33.26% 29.65%