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2023-24 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Sonderjyske

68 pts

Aalborg · 65 pts

Relegated

Helsingor

16 pts

Naestved · 27 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Sonderjyske

28.99 points above expected

68 points · 39.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Helsingor

7.76 points below expected

16 points · 23.76 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Aalborg 22 15 6 1 51 48 22 +26 41.80 +9.20
2 Sonderjyske 22 15 4 3 49 58 24 +34 39.01 +9.99
3 Vendsyssel 22 10 6 6 36 34 28 +6 30.67 +5.33
4 Fredericia 22 9 8 5 35 34 27 +7 34.75 +0.25
5 Kolding IF 22 10 3 9 33 34 32 +2 27.74 +5.26
6 Hobro 22 10 3 9 33 26 24 +2 29.76 +3.24
7 Hillerod 22 8 6 8 30 39 32 +7 27.20 +2.80
8 B.93 22 8 4 10 28 26 37 -11 26.34 +1.66
9 Horsens 22 7 4 11 25 28 35 -7 31.51 -6.51
10 HB Koge 22 5 3 14 18 24 50 -26 24.93 -6.93
11 Naestved 22 1 11 10 14 25 42 -17 24.61 -10.61
12 Helsingor 22 2 6 14 12 23 46 -23 23.76 -11.76
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sonderjyske Promoted 32 20 8 4 68 71 29 +42 — —
2 Aalborg Promoted 32 19 8 5 65 66 38 +28 — —
3 Kolding IF 32 14 7 11 49 52 46 +6 — —
4 Fredericia 32 13 8 11 47 46 42 +4 — —
5 Hobro 32 14 5 13 47 42 40 +2 — —
6 Vendsyssel 32 11 10 11 43 45 50 -5 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hillerod 32 13 10 9 49 58 41 +17 — —
2 Horsens 32 12 7 13 43 37 45 -8 — —
3 B.93 32 11 6 15 39 45 55 -10 — —
4 HB Koge 32 9 7 16 34 43 66 -23 — —
5 Naestved Relegated 32 5 12 15 27 33 53 -20 — —
6 Helsingor Relegated 32 2 10 20 16 32 65 -33 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sonderjyske 1642 68 39.01 +28.99 96.3% 17 29 35 39 43 49 61
Aalborg 1638 65 41.80 +23.20 95.5% 17 32 38 42 46 51 62
Hillerod 1540 49 27.20 +21.80 71.7% 6 18 23 27 31 37 50
Kolding IF 1505 49 27.74 +21.26 83.8% 9 18 24 28 32 38 49
Fredericia 1498 47 34.75 +12.25 55.0% 10 25 31 35 39 45 57
Hobro 1484 47 29.76 +17.24 73.4% 9 20 26 30 34 40 52
Vendsyssel 1468 43 30.67 +12.33 83.2% 8 21 27 31 35 41 52
Horsens 1450 43 31.51 +11.49 16.1% 8 22 27 31 36 41 56
B.93 1448 39 26.34 +12.66 65.1% 8 17 22 26 30 36 50
HB Koge 1389 34 24.93 +9.07 13.5% 5 16 21 25 29 35 49
Naestved 1381 27 24.61 +2.39 3.9% 4 15 21 24 29 34 47
Helsingor 1298 16 23.76 -7.76 1.9% 5 15 20 24 28 33 46

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL B.9 FRE HK HEL HIL HOB HOR KI NAE SON VEN
Aalborg —
2-0-0
3.86
3-0-1
7.32
2-0-0
4.32
0-2-0
4.11
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-3
7.89
2-0-0
3.50
3-1-0
7.73
0-2-0
4.20
1-2-1
5.85
3-1-0
7.59
B.93
0-0-2
1.68
 —
1-0-1
2.24
3-0-1
5.77
2-1-1
6.34
1-0-3
4.88
0-1-1
2.47
1-2-1
4.98
1-1-0
2.65
2-1-1
5.95
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
2.34
Fredericia
1-0-3
3.67
1-0-1
3.26
 —
0-2-0
3.74
0-2-0
3.90
1-1-0
3.40
2-0-2
5.93
1-1-0
3.06
2-0-2
6.42
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-3
4.28
3-1-0
5.55
HB Koge
0-0-2
1.26
1-0-3
5.16
0-2-0
1.77
 —
3-1-0
6.04
1-2-1
4.27
0-0-2
2.42
1-1-2
4.51
0-0-2
2.41
2-1-1
5.45
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
2.42
Helsingor
0-2-0
1.45
1-1-2
4.61
0-2-0
1.62
0-1-3
4.90
 —
0-1-3
3.98
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-3
4.08
0-1-1
2.23
1-1-2
4.79
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
2.46
Hillerod
0-0-2
1.67
3-0-1
6.06
0-1-1
2.08
1-2-1
6.69
3-1-0
7.05
 —
0-1-1
2.46
2-1-1
5.60
0-0-2
2.77
2-2-0
6.72
1-1-0
1.62
1-1-0
2.32
Hobro
3-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.99
2-0-2
5.00
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.00
 —
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-3
5.60
1-0-1
3.08
0-1-3
3.51
1-1-2
4.87
Horsens
0-0-2
1.98
1-2-1
5.96
0-1-1
2.40
2-1-1
6.43
3-1-0
6.89
1-1-2
5.35
1-0-1
2.83
 —
0-0-2
3.24
3-1-0
6.35
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.91
Kolding IF
0-1-3
3.30
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-2
4.53
2-0-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.70
3-1-0
5.33
2-0-0
2.23
 —
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-3
3.70
1-1-2
4.98
Naestved
0-2-0
1.36
1-1-2
4.98
0-1-1
1.79
1-1-2
5.47
2-1-1
6.15
0-2-2
4.24
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-3
4.59
0-1-1
2.43
 —
0-0-2
1.85
0-2-0
2.12
Sonderjyske
1-2-1
5.08
2-0-0
4.05
3-0-1
6.68
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
4.22
0-1-1
3.91
3-1-0
7.51
2-0-0
3.18
3-1-0
7.30
2-0-0
3.68
 —
0-3-1
7.07
Vendsyssel
0-1-3
3.43
2-0-0
3.14
0-1-3
5.37
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
3.14
2-1-1
6.07
1-0-1
2.56
2-1-1
5.95
0-2-0
3.36
1-3-0
3.92
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +10.6
Allowed 0.78 -11.7
Differential 0.93 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.77%8.33%4.69%1.82%2.86%1.04%25.52%
18.33%10.94%6.51%4.95%2.60%0.78%34.11%
24.69%6.51%5.21%2.34%0.52%—19.27%
31.82%4.95%2.34%2.08%0.52%0.26%11.98%
42.86%2.60%0.52%0.52%0.52%—7.03%
5+1.04%0.78%—0.26%——2.08%
Total25.52%34.11%19.27%11.98%7.03%2.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.98
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.12%————3.12%
112.50%12.50%9.38%———34.38%
23.12%12.50%9.38%3.12%——28.12%
36.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
43.12%6.25%—3.12%——12.50%
5+———————
Total25.00%40.62%25.00%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.19 +0.88
SD 1.11 0.93 1.34
CV 0.54 0.78 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%9.38%6.25%40.62%
19.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
26.25%—3.12%———9.38%
33.12%3.12%3.12%——3.12%12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total28.12%28.12%15.62%9.38%9.38%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.72 -0.31
SD 1.86 1.65 2.80
CV 1.33 0.96 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%6.25%—9.38%—37.50%
13.12%6.25%6.25%———15.62%
29.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%37.50%18.75%6.25%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.31 +0.12
SD 1.44 1.23 2.04
CV 1.00 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%12.50%—6.25%—28.12%
19.38%9.38%9.38%6.25%6.25%6.25%46.88%
2——3.12%———3.12%
3—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+3.12%——3.12%——6.25%
Total21.88%18.75%28.12%12.50%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 2.06 -0.72
SD 1.43 1.83 2.48
CV 1.06 0.89 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%18.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%—37.50%
1—9.38%6.25%12.50%—3.12%31.25%
23.12%3.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%—25.00%
3———3.12%3.12%—6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.38%31.25%25.00%21.88%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.03 -1.03
SD 0.95 1.36 1.38
CV 0.95 0.67 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—25.00%
13.12%9.38%6.25%3.12%——21.88%
29.38%—9.38%3.12%——21.88%
33.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
46.25%—3.12%—3.12%—12.50%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%31.25%21.88%9.38%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.28 +0.53
SD 1.55 1.20 1.98
CV 0.86 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%6.25%———21.88%
112.50%9.38%12.50%6.25%——40.62%
26.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
3—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%40.62%28.12%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.25 +0.06
SD 1.03 0.92 1.34
CV 0.78 0.73 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%——6.25%25.00%
115.62%15.62%9.38%3.12%6.25%—50.00%
26.25%3.12%—3.12%——12.50%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total31.25%34.38%15.62%6.25%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.41 -0.25
SD 1.02 1.48 2.00
CV 0.88 1.05 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%—3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
2—15.62%—3.12%——18.75%
3—9.38%3.12%6.25%——18.75%
46.25%—3.12%———9.38%
5+———————
Total15.62%50.00%12.50%18.75%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.44 +0.19
SD 1.29 1.08 1.75
CV 0.79 0.75 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
19.38%15.62%6.25%3.12%9.38%—43.75%
2—3.12%6.25%6.25%——15.62%
3—3.12%—6.25%——9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%34.38%18.75%18.75%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.66 -0.62
SD 0.93 1.26 1.29
CV 0.90 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
16.25%9.38%—3.12%——18.75%
29.38%9.38%9.38%———28.12%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
412.50%12.50%—3.12%——28.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total40.62%37.50%12.50%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.91 +1.31
SD 1.52 0.96 1.96
CV 0.68 1.06 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—6.25%———18.75%
112.50%12.50%—12.50%9.38%—46.88%
23.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%3.12%——3.12%—9.38%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%9.38%12.50%18.75%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.56 -0.16
SD 1.19 1.54 1.83
CV 0.84 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sonderjyske 68 39.01 +28.99
2 Aalborg 65 41.80 +23.20
3 Hillerod 49 27.20 +21.80
4 Kolding IF 49 27.74 +21.26
5 Hobro 47 29.76 +17.24

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Helsingor 16 23.76 -7.76
2 Naestved 27 24.61 +2.39
3 HB Koge 34 24.93 +9.07
4 Horsens 43 31.51 +11.49
5 Fredericia 47 34.75 +12.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sonderjyske 8 Sep 24 – Nov 24 1 in 92
2 B.93 3 Nov 10 – Dec 5 1 in 49
3 Kolding IF 3 May 3 – May 17 1 in 25
4 Hobro 3 Jul 23 – Aug 4 1 in 21
5 Hillerod 4 May 10 – Jun 1 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aalborg 3 Apr 25 – May 11 1 in 74
2 B.93 6 Sep 22 – Nov 4 1 in 55
3 Naestved 4 Jul 23 – Aug 13 1 in 47
4 Hillerod 4 Jul 21 – Aug 11 1 in 31
5 Helsingor 5 May 5 – Jun 1 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sonderjyske 15 Aug 6 – Nov 24 1 in 67
2 Kolding IF 8 Feb 23 – Apr 21 1 in 56
3 Vendsyssel 9 Oct 9 – Mar 2 1 in 42
4 Naestved 7 Dec 5 – Apr 7 1 in 41
5 Aalborg 16 Jul 22 – Nov 12 1 in 39

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingor 30 Aug 5 – Jun 1 1 in 8,810
2 Aalborg 6 Apr 7 – May 11 1 in 108
3 Naestved 11 Jul 23 – Oct 1 1 in 59
4 Horsens 6 Dec 1 – Apr 1 1 in 24
5 HB Koge 8 Aug 4 – Sep 22 1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Sonderjyske29.81%27.76%16.99%10.12%6.02%3.48%2.50%1.52%1.02%0.39%0.26%0.13%
Aalborg49.80%25.20%11.83%5.83%3.28%1.80%1.20%0.56%0.29%0.10%0.06%0.05%
Hillerod0.75%2.76%4.76%7.85%9.05%10.59%11.40%11.92%11.26%10.84%10.25%8.57%
Kolding IF0.92%3.17%5.62%7.75%9.29%11.43%11.25%11.46%11.02%11.64%9.42%7.03%
Fredericia9.10%16.22%19.31%15.82%12.14%8.85%6.43%4.55%3.20%2.28%1.56%0.54%
Hobro2.07%5.28%9.42%11.32%11.85%11.60%11.12%9.99%9.23%7.53%6.31%4.28%
Vendsyssel2.99%6.75%10.92%12.54%12.94%11.79%11.30%9.40%7.63%5.91%4.91%2.92%
Horsens3.24%8.50%11.86%12.95%12.77%12.27%10.15%9.12%7.25%5.34%3.87%2.68%
B.930.54%1.78%3.57%5.48%7.76%9.04%10.30%11.47%12.42%13.07%12.82%11.75%
HB Koge0.32%1.04%2.15%3.84%5.41%7.18%8.66%10.14%12.29%14.46%15.89%18.62%
Naestved0.31%0.89%2.01%3.83%5.45%6.38%8.43%10.46%12.12%14.50%16.68%18.94%
Helsingor0.15%0.65%1.56%2.67%4.04%5.59%7.26%9.41%12.27%13.94%17.97%24.49%
Team123456789101112
Sonderjyske————————————
Aalborg————————————
Hillerod————————————
Kolding IF————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hobro————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Horsens————————————
B.93————————————
HB Koge————————————
Naestved————————————
Helsingor————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.60%
No Edge
38.54%25.52%35.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.05 Elo pts.
171 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.03 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Sonderjyske, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.72 * Some Luck: 4.72 to 7.08 * Lucky: 7.08 to 9.44 * Wild Swing: 9.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.74 * Close: 1.74 to 2.62 * Off: 2.62 to 3.49 * Way Off: 3.49 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.09 points
Lucky
05.9015
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.185
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.32%
Sonderjyske
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.93%
Helsingor
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.70
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.47
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.18
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.34
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.54
Very Underconfident
0.3031751.001.69682
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.070
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Aalborg 97.74% 2.26%
B.93 28.17% 71.83%
Fredericia 81.44% 18.56%
HB Koge 19.94% 80.06%
Helsingor 14.66% 85.34%
Hillerod 35.76% 64.24%
Hobro 51.54% 48.46%
Horsens 61.59% 38.41%
Kolding IF 38.18% 61.82%
Naestved 18.87% 81.13%
Sonderjyske 94.18% 5.82%
Vendsyssel 57.93% 42.07%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Aalborg 100% —
B.93 — 100%
Fredericia 100% —
HB Koge — 100%
Helsingor — 100%
Hillerod — 100%
Hobro 100% —
Horsens — 100%
Kolding IF 100% —
Naestved — 100%
Sonderjyske 100% —
Vendsyssel 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2023-07-21 HB Koge L 0-4 1443 1465 36.30% 26.94% 36.76% -26.0 0
2023-07-21 @ Hillerod W 4-0 1465 1443 36.76% 26.94% 36.30% +26.0 3
2023-07-21 Sonderjyske D 1-1 1473 1508 34.37% 26.91% 38.73% +0.2 1
2023-07-21 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1508 1473 38.73% 26.91% 34.37% -0.2 1
2023-07-22 Aalborg L 0-3 1482 1560 28.90% 26.52% 44.57% -16.7 0
2023-07-22 @ B.93 W 3-0 1560 1482 44.57% 26.52% 28.90% +16.7 3
2023-07-23 Hobro L 0-2 1495 1450 45.56% 26.41% 28.03% -16.3 0
2023-07-23 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1450 1495 28.03% 26.41% 45.56% +16.3 3
2023-07-23 Horsens W 2-1 1431 1511 28.59% 26.48% 44.92% +8.0 3
2023-07-23 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1511 1431 44.92% 26.48% 28.59% -8.1 0
2023-07-23 Naestved W 2-1 1457 1466 38.05% 26.92% 35.03% +6.7 3
2023-07-23 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1466 1457 35.03% 26.92% 38.05% -6.7 0
2023-07-28 Fredericia L 1-3 1508 1479 43.39% 26.64% 29.97% -13.6 1
2023-07-28 @ Sonderjyske W 3-1 1479 1508 29.97% 26.64% 43.39% +13.6 3
2023-07-28 Naestved W 3-2 1467 1459 40.43% 26.84% 32.73% +6.0 6
2023-07-28 @ Hobro L 2-3 1459 1467 32.73% 26.84% 40.43% -6.0 0
2023-07-28 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1491 1473 41.88% 26.76% 31.36% +10.6 6
2023-07-28 @ HB Koge L 1-3 1473 1491 31.36% 26.76% 41.88% -10.6 1
2023-07-29 Hillerod W 2-1 1439 1417 42.46% 26.71% 30.82% +6.0 6
2023-07-29 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1417 1439 30.82% 26.71% 42.46% -6.0 0
2023-07-29 Horsens W 1-0 1576 1503 49.26% 25.86% 24.87% +5.4 6
2023-07-29 @ Aalborg L 0-1 1503 1576 24.87% 25.86% 49.26% -5.4 0
2023-07-30 B.93 W 2-0 1463 1465 39.06% 26.90% 34.04% +13.0 6
2023-07-30 @ Helsingor L 0-2 1465 1463 34.04% 26.90% 39.06% -13.0 0
2023-08-04 HB Koge W 2-0 1498 1501 38.87% 26.90% 34.23% +13.1 3
2023-08-04 @ Horsens L 0-2 1501 1498 34.23% 26.90% 38.87% -13.1 6
2023-08-04 Hobro L 0-1 1411 1473 30.87% 26.72% 42.42% -6.4 0
2023-08-04 @ Hillerod W 1-0 1473 1411 42.42% 26.72% 30.87% +6.4 9
2023-08-05 Helsingor W 2-1 1462 1476 37.37% 26.93% 35.70% +6.8 4
2023-08-05 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1476 1462 35.70% 26.93% 37.37% -6.8 6
2023-08-05 Kolding IF D 1-1 1452 1445 40.38% 26.84% 32.77% -0.3 1
2023-08-05 @ B.93 D 1-1 1445 1452 32.77% 26.84% 40.38% +0.3 7
2023-08-06 Fredericia W 4-0 1582 1493 51.28% 25.48% 23.24% +18.2 9
2023-08-06 @ Aalborg L 0-4 1493 1582 23.24% 25.48% 51.28% -18.2 3
2023-08-06 Sonderjyske L 1-4 1453 1494 33.59% 26.88% 39.53% -15.8 0
2023-08-06 @ Naestved W 4-1 1494 1453 39.53% 26.88% 33.59% +15.8 4
2023-08-11 Aalborg D 1-1 1470 1600 23.12% 25.45% 51.44% +1.2 7
2023-08-11 @ Helsingor D 1-1 1600 1470 51.44% 25.45% 23.12% -1.2 10
2023-08-11 B.93 L 1-7 1488 1452 44.38% 26.54% 29.08% -36.5 6
2023-08-11 @ HB Koge W 7-1 1452 1488 29.08% 26.54% 44.38% +36.5 4
2023-08-11 Hillerod W 3-2 1474 1405 48.81% 25.94% 25.24% +4.9 6
2023-08-11 @ Fredericia L 2-3 1405 1474 25.24% 25.94% 48.81% -4.9 0
2023-08-12 Horsens W 5-0 1510 1511 39.27% 26.89% 33.84% +30.4 7
2023-08-12 @ Sonderjyske L 0-5 1511 1510 33.84% 26.89% 39.27% -30.4 3
2023-08-13 Kolding IF L 1-2 1437 1446 38.22% 26.92% 34.86% -7.1 0
2023-08-13 @ Naestved W 2-1 1446 1437 34.86% 26.92% 38.22% +7.1 10
2023-08-13 Vendsyssel L 0-1 1479 1469 40.81% 26.82% 32.37% -7.9 9
2023-08-13 @ Hobro W 1-0 1469 1479 32.37% 26.82% 40.81% +7.9 7
2023-08-18 Fredericia L 0-5 1489 1479 40.71% 26.83% 32.47% -34.9 4
2023-08-18 @ B.93 W 5-0 1479 1489 32.47% 26.83% 40.71% +34.9 9
2023-08-18 Helsingor W 3-1 1480 1471 40.75% 26.83% 32.43% +10.9 6
2023-08-18 @ Horsens L 1-3 1471 1480 32.43% 26.83% 40.75% -10.9 7
2023-08-18 Naestved D 1-1 1599 1430 60.48% 22.89% 16.64% -1.9 11
2023-08-18 @ Aalborg D 1-1 1430 1599 16.64% 22.89% 60.48% +1.9 1
2023-08-18 Sonderjyske L 1-3 1453 1540 27.67% 26.36% 45.96% -9.6 10
2023-08-18 @ Kolding IF W 3-1 1540 1453 45.96% 26.36% 27.67% +9.6 10
2023-08-19 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1400 1477 28.94% 26.53% 44.53% +16.0 3
2023-08-19 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1477 1400 44.53% 26.53% 28.94% -16.0 7
2023-08-20 Hobro L 0-2 1452 1471 36.58% 26.94% 36.48% -13.8 6
2023-08-20 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1471 1452 36.48% 26.94% 36.58% +13.8 12
2023-08-22 B.93 L 0-1 1432 1454 36.29% 26.94% 36.78% -7.3 1
2023-08-22 @ Naestved W 1-0 1454 1432 36.78% 26.94% 36.29% +7.3 7
2023-08-22 Horsens W 2-0 1514 1491 42.56% 26.71% 30.73% +12.1 12
2023-08-22 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1491 1514 30.73% 26.71% 42.56% -12.1 6
2023-08-23 HB Koge W 4-0 1550 1438 54.09% 24.83% 21.08% +16.6 13
2023-08-23 @ Sonderjyske L 0-4 1438 1550 21.08% 24.83% 54.09% -16.6 6
2023-08-23 Hillerod L 1-6 1460 1416 45.44% 26.42% 28.13% -31.5 7
2023-08-23 @ Helsingor W 6-1 1416 1460 28.13% 26.42% 45.44% +31.5 6
2023-08-23 Kolding IF W 2-1 1461 1443 41.88% 26.76% 31.37% +6.1 10
2023-08-23 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1443 1461 31.37% 26.76% 41.88% -6.1 10
2023-08-24 Aalborg L 1-2 1485 1597 25.00% 25.89% 49.11% -5.1 12
2023-08-24 @ Hobro W 2-1 1597 1485 49.11% 25.89% 25.00% +5.1 14
2023-08-25 Naestved W 3-0 1479 1425 46.82% 26.25% 26.93% +15.8 9
2023-08-25 @ Horsens L 0-3 1425 1479 26.93% 26.25% 46.82% -15.8 1
2023-08-26 Helsingor W 4-0 1437 1428 40.59% 26.83% 32.57% +24.0 13
2023-08-26 @ Kolding IF L 0-4 1428 1437 32.57% 26.83% 40.59% -23.9 7
2023-08-26 Vendsyssel L 0-5 1461 1467 38.53% 26.91% 34.56% -33.5 7
2023-08-26 @ B.93 W 5-0 1467 1461 34.56% 26.91% 38.53% +33.5 13
2023-08-27 Fredericia D 0-0 1421 1526 25.74% 26.04% 48.23% +1.0 7
2023-08-27 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1526 1421 48.23% 26.04% 25.74% -1.0 13
2023-08-27 Hillerod W 3-0 1602 1447 58.97% 23.41% 17.62% +10.7 17
2023-08-27 @ Aalborg L 0-3 1447 1602 17.62% 23.41% 58.97% -10.7 6
2023-08-28 Sonderjyske L 1-2 1480 1567 27.79% 26.38% 45.84% -5.6 12
2023-08-28 @ Hobro W 2-1 1567 1480 45.84% 26.38% 27.79% +5.6 16
2023-09-01 B.93 D 0-0 1495 1428 48.53% 25.99% 25.48% -1.0 10
2023-09-01 @ Horsens D 0-0 1428 1495 25.48% 25.99% 48.53% +1.0 8
2023-09-01 Fredericia L 0-2 1500 1525 35.85% 26.93% 37.21% -13.6 13
2023-09-01 @ Vendsyssel W 2-0 1525 1500 37.21% 26.93% 35.85% +13.6 16
2023-09-01 Sonderjyske D 2-2 1437 1572 22.59% 25.30% 52.10% +0.9 7
2023-09-01 @ Hillerod D 2-2 1572 1437 52.10% 25.30% 22.59% -0.9 17
2023-09-03 Hobro L 1-3 1404 1474 29.81% 26.62% 43.57% -10.2 7
2023-09-03 @ Helsingor W 3-1 1474 1404 43.57% 26.62% 29.81% +10.2 15
2023-09-03 Kolding IF W 3-1 1613 1461 58.65% 23.51% 17.84% +6.5 20
2023-09-03 @ Aalborg L 1-3 1461 1613 17.84% 23.51% 58.65% -6.5 13
2023-09-04 HB Koge D 3-3 1409 1422 37.51% 26.93% 35.56% -0.0 2
2023-09-04 @ Naestved D 3-3 1422 1409 35.56% 26.93% 37.51% +0.0 8
2023-09-14 Kolding IF L 0-1 1422 1454 34.80% 26.92% 38.28% -7.0 8
2023-09-14 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1454 1422 38.28% 26.92% 34.80% +7.0 16
2023-09-15 Aalborg D 1-1 1571 1619 32.68% 26.84% 40.48% +0.3 18
2023-09-15 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1619 1571 40.48% 26.84% 32.68% -0.3 21
2023-09-15 B.93 L 0-1 1438 1429 40.63% 26.83% 32.54% -7.9 7
2023-09-15 @ Hillerod W 1-0 1429 1438 32.54% 26.83% 40.63% +7.9 11
2023-09-15 Horsens L 0-1 1485 1494 38.03% 26.92% 35.04% -7.5 15
2023-09-15 @ Hobro W 1-0 1494 1485 35.04% 26.92% 38.03% +7.5 13
2023-09-17 Helsingor D 0-0 1539 1394 57.85% 23.77% 18.38% -1.9 17
2023-09-17 @ Fredericia D 0-0 1394 1539 18.38% 23.77% 57.85% +1.9 8
2023-09-17 Naestved D 1-1 1487 1409 49.86% 25.76% 24.38% -1.0 14
2023-09-17 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1409 1487 24.38% 25.76% 49.86% +1.0 3
2023-09-22 Fredericia L 1-2 1461 1537 29.14% 26.55% 44.31% -5.8 16
2023-09-22 @ Kolding IF W 2-1 1537 1461 44.31% 26.55% 29.14% +5.8 20
2023-09-22 HB Koge W 2-0 1619 1415 64.16% 21.46% 14.37% +6.0 24
2023-09-22 @ Aalborg L 0-2 1415 1619 14.37% 21.46% 64.16% -6.0 8
2023-09-22 Hobro L 1-2 1437 1477 33.65% 26.88% 39.47% -6.5 11
2023-09-22 @ B.93 W 2-1 1477 1437 39.47% 26.88% 33.65% +6.5 18
2023-09-23 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1502 1486 41.57% 26.78% 31.65% +10.7 16
2023-09-23 @ Horsens L 1-3 1486 1502 31.65% 26.78% 41.57% -10.7 14
2023-09-24 Hillerod D 2-2 1410 1430 36.60% 26.94% 36.47% -0.0 4
2023-09-24 @ Naestved D 2-2 1430 1410 36.47% 26.94% 36.60% +0.0 8
2023-09-24 Sonderjyske L 3-4 1396 1572 19.07% 24.07% 56.85% -3.7 8
2023-09-24 @ Helsingor W 4-3 1572 1396 56.85% 24.07% 19.07% +3.7 21
2023-09-29 Aalborg L 1-3 1475 1625 21.30% 24.91% 53.79% -7.7 14
2023-09-29 @ Vendsyssel W 3-1 1625 1475 53.79% 24.91% 21.30% +7.7 27
2023-09-29 Horsens D 0-0 1430 1512 28.28% 26.44% 45.28% +0.8 9
2023-09-29 @ Hillerod D 0-0 1512 1430 45.28% 26.44% 28.28% -0.8 17
2023-09-30 B.93 W 4-0 1575 1430 57.93% 23.74% 18.33% +14.5 24
2023-09-30 @ Sonderjyske L 0-4 1430 1575 18.33% 23.74% 57.93% -14.5 11
2023-10-01 Helsingor W 1-0 1409 1392 41.76% 26.76% 31.48% +6.5 11
2023-10-01 @ HB Koge L 0-1 1392 1409 31.48% 26.76% 41.76% -6.5 8
2023-10-01 Kolding IF L 2-3 1484 1456 43.25% 26.65% 30.10% -7.4 18
2023-10-01 @ Hobro W 3-2 1456 1484 30.10% 26.65% 43.25% +7.4 19
2023-10-01 Naestved W 4-1 1543 1410 56.48% 24.18% 19.33% +9.9 23
2023-10-01 @ Fredericia L 1-4 1410 1543 19.33% 24.18% 56.48% -9.9 4
2023-10-06 Aalborg L 1-4 1511 1632 24.05% 25.68% 50.27% -12.1 17
2023-10-06 @ Horsens W 4-1 1632 1511 50.27% 25.68% 24.05% +12.1 30
2023-10-06 Hillerod L 0-3 1416 1430 37.26% 26.93% 35.80% -20.3 11
2023-10-06 @ B.93 W 3-0 1430 1416 35.80% 26.93% 37.26% +20.3 12
2023-10-06 Sonderjyske L 1-2 1553 1590 34.09% 26.90% 39.02% -6.5 23
2023-10-06 @ Fredericia W 2-1 1590 1553 39.02% 26.90% 34.09% +6.5 27
2023-10-07 HB Koge W 3-1 1463 1416 45.89% 26.37% 27.74% +9.6 22
2023-10-07 @ Kolding IF L 1-3 1416 1463 27.74% 26.37% 45.89% -9.6 11
2023-10-08 Hobro W 1-0 1400 1476 29.09% 26.54% 44.37% +8.5 7
2023-10-08 @ Naestved L 0-1 1476 1400 44.37% 26.54% 29.09% -8.5 18
2023-10-09 Vendsyssel L 0-1 1386 1468 28.38% 26.46% 45.16% -6.0 8
2023-10-09 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1468 1386 45.16% 26.46% 28.38% +6.0 17
2023-10-19 Horsens W 2-1 1474 1499 35.69% 26.93% 37.38% +7.0 20
2023-10-19 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1499 1474 37.38% 26.93% 35.69% -7.0 17
2023-10-20 Fredericia D 1-1 1451 1546 26.80% 26.23% 46.98% +0.8 13
2023-10-20 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1546 1451 46.98% 26.23% 26.80% -0.8 24
2023-10-20 Helsingor W 1-0 1468 1380 51.12% 25.51% 23.37% +5.1 21
2023-10-20 @ Hobro L 0-1 1380 1468 23.37% 25.51% 51.12% -5.1 8
2023-10-20 Kolding IF W 4-0 1596 1473 55.45% 24.47% 20.07% +15.9 30
2023-10-20 @ Sonderjyske L 0-4 1473 1596 20.07% 24.47% 55.45% -15.9 22
2023-10-22 B.93 W 2-1 1644 1395 68.63% 19.48% 11.89% +2.4 33
2023-10-22 @ Aalborg L 1-2 1395 1644 11.89% 19.48% 68.63% -2.4 11
2023-10-22 Naestved W 3-2 1406 1409 39.02% 26.90% 34.08% +6.2 14
2023-10-22 @ HB Koge L 2-3 1409 1406 34.08% 26.90% 39.02% -6.2 7
2023-10-27 HB Koge W 2-1 1473 1412 47.61% 26.13% 26.26% +5.3 24
2023-10-27 @ Hobro L 1-2 1412 1473 26.26% 26.13% 47.61% -5.3 14
2023-10-27 Hillerod L 1-3 1492 1451 45.04% 26.47% 28.49% -14.0 17
2023-10-27 @ Horsens W 3-1 1451 1492 28.49% 26.47% 45.04% +14.0 16
2023-10-27 Sonderjyske L 0-4 1393 1612 15.87% 22.44% 61.68% -12.6 11
2023-10-27 @ B.93 W 4-0 1612 1393 61.68% 22.44% 15.87% +12.6 33
2023-10-28 Aalborg L 0-1 1457 1647 17.95% 23.57% 58.48% -4.0 22
2023-10-28 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1647 1457 58.48% 23.57% 17.95% +4.0 36
2023-10-28 Fredericia D 3-3 1375 1545 19.49% 24.25% 56.27% +1.0 9
2023-10-28 @ Helsingor D 3-3 1545 1375 56.27% 24.25% 19.49% -1.0 25
2023-10-29 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1402 1481 28.82% 26.51% 44.67% +0.6 8
2023-10-29 @ Naestved D 1-1 1481 1402 44.67% 26.51% 28.82% -0.6 21
2023-11-03 Hobro W 1-0 1625 1478 58.11% 23.69% 18.21% +4.0 36
2023-11-03 @ Sonderjyske L 0-1 1478 1625 18.21% 23.69% 58.11% -4.0 24
2023-11-03 Horsens L 1-4 1407 1478 29.64% 26.60% 43.75% -14.4 14
2023-11-03 @ HB Koge W 4-1 1478 1407 43.75% 26.60% 29.64% +14.4 20
2023-11-04 B.93 W 1-0 1480 1380 52.58% 25.20% 22.23% +4.9 24
2023-11-04 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1380 1480 22.23% 25.20% 52.58% -4.9 11
2023-11-05 Helsingor D 2-2 1651 1376 71.01% 18.31% 10.68% -1.9 37
2023-11-05 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1376 1651 10.68% 18.31% 71.01% +1.9 10
2023-11-05 Kolding IF W 1-0 1544 1453 51.56% 25.42% 23.02% +5.0 28
2023-11-05 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1453 1544 23.02% 25.42% 51.56% -5.0 22
2023-11-06 Naestved W 1-0 1465 1403 47.87% 26.09% 26.04% +5.6 19
2023-11-06 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1403 1465 26.04% 26.09% 47.87% -5.6 8
2023-11-10 Fredericia D 1-1 1493 1549 31.52% 26.77% 41.72% +0.4 21
2023-11-10 @ Horsens D 1-1 1549 1493 41.72% 26.77% 31.52% -0.4 29
2023-11-10 Helsingor W 2-0 1375 1378 39.07% 26.90% 34.04% +13.0 14
2023-11-10 @ B.93 L 0-2 1378 1375 34.04% 26.90% 39.07% -13.1 10
2023-11-10 Sonderjyske L 1-4 1393 1629 14.80% 21.76% 63.43% -7.5 14
2023-11-10 @ HB Koge W 4-1 1629 1393 63.43% 21.76% 14.80% +7.5 39
2023-11-12 Aalborg D 1-1 1398 1649 13.90% 21.12% 64.98% +2.2 9
2023-11-12 @ Naestved D 1-1 1649 1398 64.98% 21.12% 13.90% -2.2 38
2023-11-12 Vendsyssel L 0-1 1448 1485 34.13% 26.90% 38.96% -6.9 22
2023-11-12 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1485 1448 38.96% 26.90% 34.13% +6.9 27
2023-11-13 Hillerod D 0-0 1474 1471 39.80% 26.87% 33.33% -0.3 25
2023-11-13 @ Hobro D 0-0 1471 1474 33.33% 26.87% 39.80% +0.3 20
2023-11-23 B.93 L 0-4 1549 1388 59.62% 23.19% 17.19% -38.5 29
2023-11-23 @ Fredericia W 4-0 1388 1549 17.19% 23.19% 59.62% +38.5 17
2023-11-24 Horsens L 1-2 1365 1493 23.28% 25.49% 51.24% -4.8 10
2023-11-24 @ Helsingor W 2-1 1493 1365 51.24% 25.49% 23.28% +4.8 24
2023-11-24 Naestved W 4-1 1636 1400 67.45% 20.03% 12.52% +6.3 42
2023-11-24 @ Sonderjyske L 1-4 1400 1636 12.52% 20.03% 67.45% -6.3 9
2023-11-25 Kolding IF L 1-3 1471 1441 43.61% 26.62% 29.78% -13.6 20
2023-11-25 @ Hillerod W 3-1 1441 1471 29.78% 26.62% 43.61% +13.6 25
2023-11-26 HB Koge W 2-0 1492 1385 53.42% 25.00% 21.58% +9.0 30
2023-11-26 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1385 1492 21.58% 25.00% 53.42% -9.0 14
2023-11-26 Hobro L 1-2 1647 1474 60.98% 22.70% 16.32% -10.3 38
2023-11-26 @ Aalborg W 2-1 1474 1647 16.32% 22.70% 60.98% +10.3 28
2023-12-01 Hobro L 0-1 1498 1484 41.33% 26.79% 31.88% -8.0 24
2023-12-01 @ Horsens W 1-0 1484 1498 31.88% 26.79% 41.33% +8.0 31
2023-12-01 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1510 1501 40.74% 26.83% 32.43% -0.4 30
2023-12-01 @ Fredericia D 0-0 1501 1510 32.43% 26.83% 40.74% +0.3 31
2023-12-02 Hillerod L 0-2 1643 1458 62.26% 22.23% 15.52% -21.0 42
2023-12-02 @ Sonderjyske W 2-0 1458 1643 15.52% 22.23% 62.26% +21.0 23
2023-12-03 Aalborg L 1-2 1376 1636 13.40% 20.75% 65.85% -2.8 14
2023-12-03 @ HB Koge W 2-1 1636 1376 65.85% 20.75% 13.40% +2.8 41
2023-12-05 B.93 L 0-1 1455 1427 43.22% 26.65% 30.13% -8.3 25
2023-12-05 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1427 1455 30.13% 26.65% 43.22% +8.3 20
2023-12-05 Helsingor D 2-2 1393 1360 44.06% 26.57% 29.37% -0.4 10
2023-12-05 @ Naestved D 2-2 1360 1393 29.37% 26.57% 44.06% +0.4 11
2024-02-23 HB Koge L 0-1 1360 1373 37.49% 26.93% 35.58% -7.4 11
2024-02-23 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1373 1360 35.58% 26.93% 37.49% +7.4 17
2024-02-23 Hillerod D 4-4 1501 1479 42.50% 26.71% 30.79% -0.2 32
2024-02-23 @ Vendsyssel D 4-4 1479 1501 30.79% 26.71% 42.50% +0.2 24
2024-02-23 Kolding IF L 1-2 1490 1446 45.41% 26.43% 28.16% -8.1 24
2024-02-23 @ Horsens W 2-1 1446 1490 28.16% 26.43% 45.41% +8.1 28
2024-02-24 Naestved D 0-0 1435 1393 45.21% 26.45% 28.33% -0.8 21
2024-02-24 @ B.93 D 0-0 1393 1435 28.33% 26.45% 45.21% +0.8 11
2024-02-24 Sonderjyske D 2-2 1639 1622 41.83% 26.76% 31.41% -0.3 42
2024-02-24 @ Aalborg D 2-2 1622 1639 31.41% 26.76% 41.83% +0.3 43
2024-02-25 Fredericia L 0-2 1492 1510 36.82% 26.94% 36.24% -13.8 31
2024-02-25 @ Hobro W 2-0 1510 1492 36.24% 26.94% 36.82% +13.8 33
2024-03-01 Aalborg L 2-3 1524 1639 24.66% 25.82% 49.52% -4.8 33
2024-03-01 @ Fredericia W 3-2 1639 1524 49.52% 25.82% 24.66% +4.8 45
2024-03-01 Helsingor W 4-2 1479 1353 55.75% 24.39% 19.86% +6.4 27
2024-03-01 @ Hillerod L 2-4 1353 1479 19.86% 24.39% 55.75% -6.4 11
2024-03-02 HB Koge W 3-1 1435 1381 46.73% 26.26% 27.01% +9.4 24
2024-03-02 @ B.93 L 1-3 1381 1435 27.01% 26.26% 46.73% -9.4 17
2024-03-02 Hobro W 3-1 1454 1478 35.97% 26.94% 37.10% +12.1 31
2024-03-02 @ Kolding IF L 1-3 1478 1454 37.10% 26.94% 35.97% -12.0 31
2024-03-02 Vendsyssel L 0-3 1622 1501 55.16% 24.55% 20.29% -27.7 43
2024-03-02 @ Sonderjyske W 3-0 1501 1622 20.29% 24.55% 55.16% +27.7 35
2024-03-03 Horsens D 1-1 1394 1482 27.64% 26.35% 46.01% +0.7 12
2024-03-03 @ Naestved D 1-1 1482 1394 46.01% 26.35% 27.64% -0.7 25
2024-03-08 B.93 D 1-1 1466 1444 42.49% 26.71% 30.80% -0.5 32
2024-03-08 @ Hobro D 1-1 1444 1466 30.80% 26.71% 42.49% +0.5 25
2024-03-08 Hillerod L 0-4 1371 1485 24.78% 25.84% 49.38% -19.2 17
2024-03-08 @ HB Koge W 4-0 1485 1371 49.38% 25.84% 24.78% +19.2 30
2024-03-08 Kolding IF D 1-1 1346 1466 24.14% 25.70% 50.16% +1.1 12
2024-03-08 @ Helsingor D 1-1 1466 1346 50.16% 25.70% 24.14% -1.1 32
2024-03-09 Fredericia D 0-0 1395 1519 23.68% 25.59% 50.73% +1.2 13
2024-03-09 @ Naestved D 0-0 1519 1395 50.73% 25.59% 23.68% -1.2 34
2024-03-09 Sonderjyske L 1-4 1481 1594 24.85% 25.86% 49.29% -12.4 25
2024-03-09 @ Horsens W 4-1 1594 1481 49.29% 25.86% 24.85% +12.4 46
2024-03-10 Vendsyssel W 4-3 1644 1528 54.45% 24.74% 20.81% +4.0 48
2024-03-10 @ Aalborg L 3-4 1528 1644 20.81% 24.74% 54.45% -4.0 35
2024-03-16 Aalborg L 1-2 1505 1648 21.89% 25.10% 53.01% -4.5 30
2024-03-16 @ Hillerod W 2-1 1648 1505 53.01% 25.10% 21.89% +4.5 51
2024-03-16 HB Koge D 2-2 1518 1352 60.18% 22.99% 16.83% -1.4 35
2024-03-16 @ Fredericia D 2-2 1352 1518 16.83% 22.99% 60.18% +1.4 18
2024-03-16 Helsingor W 2-0 1607 1347 69.57% 19.02% 11.40% +4.6 49
2024-03-16 @ Sonderjyske L 0-2 1347 1607 11.40% 19.02% 69.57% -4.6 12
2024-03-16 Hobro D 1-1 1524 1466 47.40% 26.17% 26.44% -0.8 36
2024-03-16 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1466 1524 26.44% 26.17% 47.40% +0.8 33
2024-03-16 Horsens W 3-2 1444 1469 35.91% 26.93% 37.15% +6.6 28
2024-03-16 @ B.93 L 2-3 1469 1444 37.15% 26.93% 35.91% -6.6 25
2024-03-16 Naestved D 3-3 1465 1396 48.81% 25.94% 25.24% -0.6 33
2024-03-16 @ Kolding IF D 3-3 1396 1465 25.24% 25.94% 48.81% +0.6 14

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2024-03-30 Sonderjyske W 1-0 1652 1611 45.02% 26.47% 28.50% +6.0 3
2024-03-30 @ Aalborg L 0-1 1611 1652 28.50% 26.47% 45.02% -6.0 0
2024-03-31 Naestved L 1-3 1343 1396 31.91% 26.79% 41.30% -10.8 0
2024-03-31 @ Helsingor W 3-1 1396 1343 41.30% 26.79% 31.91% +10.8 3
2024-04-01 B.93 W 4-0 1500 1451 46.12% 26.34% 27.54% +21.0 3
2024-04-01 @ Hillerod L 0-4 1451 1500 27.54% 26.34% 46.12% -21.0 0
2024-04-01 Horsens W 5-0 1354 1462 25.36% 25.96% 48.68% +40.2 3
2024-04-01 @ HB Koge L 0-5 1462 1354 48.68% 25.96% 25.36% -40.2 0
2024-04-01 Kolding IF D 1-1 1467 1465 39.63% 26.88% 33.49% -0.2 1
2024-04-01 @ Hobro D 1-1 1465 1467 33.49% 26.88% 39.63% +0.2 1
2024-04-02 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1516 1524 38.36% 26.92% 34.72% +11.5 3
2024-04-02 @ Fredericia L 1-3 1524 1516 34.72% 26.92% 38.36% -11.5 0
2024-04-05 Helsingor D 2-2 1430 1332 52.38% 25.24% 22.38% -0.9 1
2024-04-05 @ B.93 D 2-2 1332 1430 22.38% 25.24% 52.38% +0.9 1
2024-04-05 Hillerod W 1-0 1422 1521 26.37% 26.15% 47.47% +8.9 3
2024-04-05 @ Horsens L 0-1 1521 1422 47.47% 26.15% 26.37% -8.9 3
2024-04-06 Fredericia W 4-0 1465 1528 30.69% 26.70% 42.60% +29.3 4
2024-04-06 @ Kolding IF L 0-4 1528 1465 42.60% 26.70% 30.69% -29.3 3
2024-04-06 Hobro W 2-0 1605 1466 57.22% 23.96% 18.82% +7.9 3
2024-04-06 @ Sonderjyske L 0-2 1466 1605 18.82% 23.96% 57.22% -7.9 1
2024-04-07 Aalborg D 2-2 1512 1658 21.62% 25.01% 53.37% +1.0 1
2024-04-07 @ Vendsyssel D 2-2 1658 1512 53.37% 25.01% 21.62% -1.0 4
2024-04-07 HB Koge W 2-1 1407 1394 41.24% 26.80% 31.96% +6.2 6
2024-04-07 @ Naestved L 1-2 1394 1407 31.96% 26.80% 41.24% -6.2 3
2024-04-12 Aalborg W 2-1 1458 1657 17.31% 23.25% 59.45% +10.1 4
2024-04-12 @ Hobro L 1-2 1657 1458 59.45% 23.25% 17.31% -10.1 4
2024-04-12 B.93 W 5-3 1388 1429 33.51% 26.88% 39.61% +10.7 6
2024-04-12 @ HB Koge L 3-5 1429 1388 39.61% 26.88% 33.51% -10.7 1
2024-04-12 Horsens L 0-2 1413 1431 36.88% 26.94% 36.18% -13.8 6
2024-04-12 @ Naestved W 2-0 1431 1413 36.18% 26.94% 36.88% +13.9 6
2024-04-13 Hillerod D 2-2 1333 1512 18.79% 23.95% 57.26% +1.2 2
2024-04-13 @ Helsingor D 2-2 1512 1333 57.26% 23.95% 18.79% -1.2 4
2024-04-13 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1494 1513 36.69% 26.94% 36.37% -0.0 5
2024-04-13 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1513 1494 36.37% 26.94% 36.69% +0.0 2
2024-04-14 Sonderjyske L 0-2 1499 1613 24.71% 25.83% 49.46% -10.1 3
2024-04-14 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1613 1499 49.46% 25.83% 24.71% +10.1 6
2024-04-18 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1623 1513 53.85% 24.89% 21.26% -1.5 7
2024-04-18 @ Sonderjyske D 0-0 1513 1623 21.26% 24.89% 53.85% +1.5 3
2024-04-19 HB Koge D 1-1 1511 1398 54.14% 24.82% 21.04% -1.4 5
2024-04-19 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1398 1511 21.04% 24.82% 54.14% +1.4 7
2024-04-19 Helsingor D 1-1 1445 1334 53.89% 24.88% 21.22% -1.4 7
2024-04-19 @ Horsens D 1-1 1334 1445 21.22% 24.88% 53.89% +1.3 3
2024-04-19 Naestved W 2-0 1418 1399 42.04% 26.75% 31.22% +12.2 4
2024-04-19 @ B.93 L 0-2 1399 1418 31.22% 26.75% 42.04% -12.2 6
2024-04-20 Fredericia L 1-2 1469 1489 36.53% 26.94% 36.53% -6.9 4
2024-04-20 @ Hobro W 2-1 1489 1469 36.53% 26.94% 36.53% +6.9 6
2024-04-21 Kolding IF D 3-3 1647 1494 58.77% 23.47% 17.76% -1.1 5
2024-04-21 @ Aalborg D 3-3 1494 1647 17.76% 23.47% 58.77% +1.1 6
2024-04-25 Aalborg W 2-1 1495 1646 21.20% 24.88% 53.92% +9.3 9
2024-04-25 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1646 1495 53.92% 24.88% 21.20% -9.3 5
2024-04-26 Horsens L 0-1 1431 1443 37.57% 26.93% 35.50% -7.4 4
2024-04-26 @ B.93 W 1-0 1443 1431 35.50% 26.93% 37.57% +7.5 10
2024-04-26 Naestved D 0-0 1510 1387 55.29% 24.52% 20.19% -1.6 6
2024-04-26 @ Hillerod D 0-0 1387 1510 20.19% 24.52% 55.29% +1.6 7
2024-04-26 Sonderjyske L 0-3 1495 1622 23.50% 25.55% 50.95% -14.0 6
2024-04-26 @ Kolding IF W 3-0 1622 1495 50.95% 25.55% 23.50% +14.0 10
2024-04-28 HB Koge D 0-0 1336 1400 30.54% 26.69% 42.77% +0.5 4
2024-04-28 @ Helsingor D 0-0 1400 1336 42.77% 26.69% 30.54% -0.5 8
2024-04-28 Hobro W 3-1 1515 1462 46.63% 26.27% 27.09% +9.4 6
2024-04-28 @ Vendsyssel L 1-3 1462 1515 27.09% 26.27% 46.63% -9.5 4
2024-05-02 Fredericia W 2-1 1636 1505 56.31% 24.23% 19.46% +4.1 13
2024-05-02 @ Sonderjyske L 1-2 1505 1636 19.46% 24.23% 56.31% -4.1 9
2024-05-03 B.93 W 1-0 1389 1423 34.50% 26.91% 38.59% +7.6 10
2024-05-03 @ Naestved L 0-1 1423 1389 38.59% 26.91% 34.50% -7.6 4
2024-05-03 Kolding IF L 2-4 1524 1481 45.28% 26.44% 28.27% -12.5 6
2024-05-03 @ Vendsyssel W 4-2 1481 1524 28.27% 26.44% 45.28% +12.6 9
2024-05-05 Hillerod D 1-1 1399 1508 25.32% 25.96% 48.72% +0.9 9
2024-05-05 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1508 1399 48.72% 25.96% 25.32% -0.9 7
2024-05-05 Hobro L 2-3 1637 1452 62.19% 22.25% 15.56% -10.0 5
2024-05-05 @ Aalborg W 3-2 1452 1637 15.56% 22.25% 62.19% +10.0 7
2024-05-05 Horsens L 0-1 1336 1451 24.69% 25.83% 49.48% -5.3 4
2024-05-05 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1451 1336 49.48% 25.83% 24.69% +5.3 13
2024-05-10 HB Koge W 7-1 1416 1400 41.56% 26.78% 31.66% +28.3 7
2024-05-10 @ B.93 L 1-7 1400 1416 31.66% 26.78% 41.56% -28.3 9
2024-05-10 Helsingor W 3-2 1507 1331 61.33% 22.58% 16.09% +3.2 10
2024-05-10 @ Hillerod L 2-3 1331 1507 16.09% 22.58% 61.33% -3.2 4
2024-05-10 Naestved W 1-0 1456 1396 47.52% 26.15% 26.33% +5.7 16
2024-05-10 @ Horsens L 0-1 1396 1456 26.33% 26.15% 47.52% -5.7 10
2024-05-11 Aalborg W 1-0 1640 1627 41.23% 26.80% 31.97% +6.6 16
2024-05-11 @ Sonderjyske L 0-1 1627 1640 31.97% 26.80% 41.23% -6.6 5
2024-05-12 Kolding IF L 0-1 1501 1494 40.34% 26.85% 32.82% -7.9 9
2024-05-12 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1494 1501 32.82% 26.85% 40.34% +7.8 12
2024-05-13 Vendsyssel W 4-1 1462 1512 32.47% 26.83% 40.70% +18.3 10
2024-05-13 @ Hobro L 1-4 1512 1462 40.70% 26.83% 32.47% -18.3 6
2024-05-17 Fredericia W 1-0 1620 1493 55.87% 24.36% 19.77% +4.4 8
2024-05-17 @ Aalborg L 0-1 1493 1620 19.77% 24.36% 55.87% -4.4 9
2024-05-17 Hobro W 2-1 1502 1481 42.35% 26.72% 30.93% +6.1 15
2024-05-17 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1481 1502 30.93% 26.72% 42.35% -6.1 10
2024-05-17 Sonderjyske D 0-0 1493 1646 20.97% 24.80% 54.23% +1.5 7
2024-05-17 @ Vendsyssel D 0-0 1646 1493 54.23% 24.80% 20.97% -1.5 17
2024-05-18 B.93 D 1-1 1462 1444 41.88% 26.76% 31.36% -0.4 17
2024-05-18 @ Horsens D 1-1 1444 1462 31.36% 26.76% 41.88% +0.4 8
2024-05-20 Helsingor W 3-1 1372 1328 45.48% 26.42% 28.10% +9.7 12
2024-05-20 @ HB Koge L 1-3 1328 1372 28.10% 26.42% 45.48% -9.7 4
2024-05-20 Hillerod L 1-3 1391 1510 24.21% 25.72% 50.07% -8.6 10
2024-05-20 @ Naestved W 3-1 1510 1391 50.07% 25.72% 24.21% +8.6 13
2024-05-24 Aalborg L 2-3 1508 1624 24.49% 25.78% 49.73% -4.8 15
2024-05-24 @ Kolding IF W 3-2 1624 1508 49.73% 25.78% 24.49% +4.8 11
2024-05-24 Fredericia L 1-4 1495 1488 40.27% 26.85% 32.88% -18.1 7
2024-05-24 @ Vendsyssel W 4-1 1488 1495 32.88% 26.85% 40.27% +18.1 12
2024-05-24 Horsens W 2-0 1519 1461 47.22% 26.19% 26.59% +10.7 16
2024-05-24 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1461 1519 26.59% 26.19% 47.22% -10.7 17
2024-05-24 Sonderjyske D 2-2 1474 1645 19.49% 24.25% 56.26% +1.1 11
2024-05-24 @ Hobro D 2-2 1645 1474 56.26% 24.25% 19.49% -1.2 18
2024-05-26 B.93 L 0-3 1318 1444 23.48% 25.54% 50.98% -14.0 4
2024-05-26 @ Helsingor W 3-0 1444 1318 50.98% 25.54% 23.48% +14.0 11
2024-05-26 Naestved W 1-0 1382 1382 39.28% 26.89% 33.83% +6.9 15
2024-05-26 @ HB Koge L 0-1 1382 1382 33.83% 26.89% 39.28% -6.9 10
2024-06-01 HB Koge D 1-1 1451 1388 47.86% 26.10% 26.05% -0.9 18
2024-06-01 @ Horsens D 1-1 1388 1451 26.05% 26.10% 47.86% +0.9 16
2024-06-01 Helsingor W 1-0 1375 1304 49.07% 25.90% 25.03% +5.4 13
2024-06-01 @ Naestved L 0-1 1304 1375 25.03% 25.90% 49.07% -5.4 4
2024-06-01 Hillerod L 1-3 1458 1529 29.67% 26.61% 43.73% -10.2 11
2024-06-01 @ B.93 W 3-1 1529 1458 43.73% 26.61% 29.67% +10.2 19
2024-06-02 Hobro L 0-1 1507 1476 43.69% 26.61% 29.70% -8.3 12
2024-06-02 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1476 1507 29.70% 26.61% 43.69% +8.4 14
2024-06-02 Kolding IF D 1-1 1644 1503 57.42% 23.90% 18.68% -1.6 19
2024-06-02 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1503 1644 18.68% 23.90% 57.42% +1.6 16
2024-06-02 Vendsyssel W 4-1 1629 1477 58.74% 23.48% 17.78% +9.1 14
2024-06-02 @ Aalborg L 1-4 1477 1629 17.78% 23.48% 58.74% -9.1 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-12-02 15.52% Hillerod 1458 2 @ Sonderjyske 1643 0
2 2024-05-05 15.56% Hobro 1452 3 @ Aalborg 1637 2
3 2023-11-26 16.32% Hobro 1474 2 @ Aalborg 1647 1
4 2023-11-23 17.19% B.93 1388 4 @ Fredericia 1549 0
5 2024-04-12 17.31% @ Hobro 1458 2 Aalborg 1657 1
6 2024-03-02 20.29% Vendsyssel 1501 3 @ Sonderjyske 1622 0
7 2024-04-25 21.20% @ Fredericia 1495 2 Aalborg 1646 1
8 2024-04-01 25.36% @ HB Koge 1354 5 Horsens 1462 0
9 2024-04-05 26.37% @ Horsens 1422 1 Hillerod 1521 0
10 2023-07-23 28.03% Hobro 1450 2 @ Fredericia 1495 0
11 2023-08-23 28.13% Hillerod 1416 6 @ Helsingor 1460 1
12 2024-02-23 28.16% Kolding IF 1446 2 @ Horsens 1490 1
13 2024-05-03 28.27% Kolding IF 1481 4 @ Vendsyssel 1524 2
14 2023-10-27 28.49% Hillerod 1451 3 @ Horsens 1492 1
15 2023-07-23 28.59% @ Kolding IF 1431 2 Horsens 1511 1
16 2023-08-19 28.94% @ Hillerod 1400 2 Vendsyssel 1477 0
17 2023-08-11 29.08% B.93 1452 7 @ HB Koge 1488 1
18 2023-10-08 29.09% @ Naestved 1400 1 Hobro 1476 0
19 2024-06-02 29.70% Hobro 1476 1 @ Fredericia 1507 0
20 2023-11-25 29.78% Kolding IF 1441 3 @ Hillerod 1471 1
21 2023-07-28 29.97% Fredericia 1479 3 @ Sonderjyske 1508 1
22 2023-10-01 30.10% Kolding IF 1456 3 @ Hobro 1484 2
23 2023-12-05 30.13% B.93 1427 1 @ Kolding IF 1455 0
24 2024-04-06 30.69% @ Kolding IF 1465 4 Fredericia 1528 0
25 2023-12-01 31.88% Hobro 1484 1 @ Horsens 1498 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-04-01 40.18 @ HB Koge 5 1354 25.36% Horsens 0 1462 48.68% 25.96%
2 2023-11-23 38.54 B.93 4 1388 17.19% @ Fredericia 0 1549 59.62% 23.19%
3 2023-08-11 36.55 B.93 7 1452 29.08% @ HB Koge 1 1488 44.38% 26.54%
4 2023-08-18 34.88 Fredericia 5 1479 32.47% @ B.93 0 1489 40.71% 26.83%
5 2023-08-26 33.45 Vendsyssel 5 1467 34.56% @ B.93 0 1461 38.53% 26.91%
6 2023-08-23 31.48 Hillerod 6 1416 28.13% @ Helsingor 1 1460 45.44% 26.42%
7 2023-08-12 30.39 @ Sonderjyske 5 1510 39.27% Horsens 0 1511 33.84% 26.89%
8 2024-04-06 29.31 @ Kolding IF 4 1465 30.69% Fredericia 0 1528 42.60% 26.70%
9 2024-05-10 28.31 @ B.93 7 1416 41.56% HB Koge 1 1400 31.66% 26.78%
10 2024-03-02 27.67 Vendsyssel 3 1501 20.29% @ Sonderjyske 0 1622 55.16% 24.55%
11 2023-07-21 25.97 HB Koge 4 1465 36.76% @ Hillerod 0 1443 36.30% 26.94%
12 2023-08-26 23.95 @ Kolding IF 4 1437 40.59% Helsingor 0 1428 32.57% 26.83%
13 2023-12-02 21.04 Hillerod 2 1458 15.52% @ Sonderjyske 0 1643 62.26% 22.23%
14 2024-04-01 20.98 @ Hillerod 4 1500 46.12% B.93 0 1451 27.54% 26.34%
15 2023-10-06 20.27 Hillerod 3 1430 35.80% @ B.93 0 1416 37.26% 26.93%
16 2024-03-08 19.20 Hillerod 4 1485 49.38% @ HB Koge 0 1371 24.78% 25.84%
17 2024-05-13 18.27 @ Hobro 4 1462 32.47% Vendsyssel 1 1512 40.70% 26.83%
18 2023-08-06 18.17 @ Aalborg 4 1582 51.28% Fredericia 0 1493 23.24% 25.48%
19 2024-05-24 18.11 Fredericia 4 1488 32.88% @ Vendsyssel 1 1495 40.27% 26.85%
20 2023-07-22 16.70 Aalborg 3 1560 44.57% @ B.93 0 1482 28.90% 26.52%
21 2023-08-23 16.63 @ Sonderjyske 4 1550 54.09% HB Koge 0 1438 21.08% 24.83%
22 2023-07-23 16.29 Hobro 2 1450 28.03% @ Fredericia 0 1495 45.56% 26.41%
23 2023-08-19 15.99 @ Hillerod 2 1400 28.94% Vendsyssel 0 1477 44.53% 26.53%
24 2023-10-20 15.89 @ Sonderjyske 4 1596 55.45% Kolding IF 0 1473 20.07% 24.47%
25 2023-08-06 15.83 Sonderjyske 4 1494 39.53% @ Naestved 1 1453 33.59% 26.88%