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2022-23 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Vejle BK

67 pts

Hvidovre · 58 pts

Relegated

Nykobing

23 pts

Fremad Amager · 34 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Vejle BK

29.01 points above expected

67 points · 37.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Nykobing

0.95 points below expected

23 points · 22.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vejle BK 22 16 2 4 50 47 20 +27 37.99 +12.01
2 Hvidovre 22 13 5 4 44 50 28 +22 37.80 +6.20
3 Helsingor 22 12 1 9 37 32 35 -3 31.52 +5.48
4 Sonderjyske 22 10 5 7 35 41 29 +12 33.52 +1.48
5 Vendsyssel 22 10 3 9 33 35 31 +4 28.64 +4.36
6 Naestved 22 8 8 6 32 32 26 +6 29.96 +2.04
7 Hillerod 22 9 4 9 31 29 35 -6 27.84 +3.16
8 HB Koge 22 7 4 11 25 29 33 -4 30.08 -5.08
9 Hobro 22 5 8 9 23 19 30 -11 27.01 -4.01
10 Fremad Amager 22 7 2 13 23 26 44 -18 23.28 -0.28
11 Fredericia 22 6 3 13 21 29 40 -11 28.34 -7.34
12 Nykobing 22 4 5 13 17 26 44 -18 22.05 -5.05
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vejle BK Promoted 32 20 7 5 67 61 30 +31 — —
2 Hvidovre Promoted 32 17 7 8 58 65 41 +24 — —
3 Sonderjyske 32 16 8 8 56 60 45 +15 — —
4 Vendsyssel 32 13 7 12 46 48 43 +5 — —
5 Naestved 32 11 10 11 43 50 48 +2 — —
6 Helsingor 32 13 3 16 42 47 56 -9 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredericia 32 13 6 13 45 56 48 +8 — —
2 HB Koge 32 13 5 14 44 50 51 -1 — —
3 Hillerod 32 12 5 15 41 37 51 -14 — —
4 Hobro 32 9 11 12 38 33 42 -9 — —
5 Fremad Amager Relegated 32 10 4 18 34 38 60 -22 — —
6 Nykobing Relegated 32 6 5 21 23 43 73 -30 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vejle BK 1559 67 37.99 +29.01 98.3% 16 28 34 38 42 48 59
Hvidovre 1536 58 37.80 +20.20 86.6% 13 28 34 38 42 48 59
Sonderjyske 1501 56 33.52 +22.48 63.3% 13 24 30 33 38 43 55
Fredericia 1479 45 28.34 +16.66 11.8% 8 19 24 28 32 38 49
Vendsyssel 1439 46 28.64 +17.36 79.1% 11 19 25 29 33 38 50
Naestved 1427 43 29.96 +13.04 67.0% 10 20 26 30 34 40 53
HB Koge 1425 44 30.08 +13.92 22.5% 10 20 26 30 34 40 52
Helsingor 1411 42 31.52 +10.48 84.1% 11 22 27 31 36 41 55
Hobro 1400 38 27.01 +10.99 27.2% 6 18 23 27 31 37 50
Hillerod 1387 41 27.84 +13.16 74.2% 7 19 24 28 32 38 50
Fremad Amager 1328 34 23.28 +10.72 52.1% 4 14 19 23 27 33 48
Nykobing 1304 23 22.05 +0.95 21.1% 4 13 18 22 26 31 51

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FA HK HEL HIL HOB HVI NAE NYK SON VB VEN
Fredericia —
2-2-0
6.69
3-1-0
5.22
1-0-1
2.41
2-0-2
5.72
2-2-0
5.83
0-0-2
1.90
0-0-2
2.69
2-1-1
6.82
0-0-2
2.29
0-0-2
1.94
1-0-1
2.60
Fremad Amager
0-2-2
4.17
 —
0-0-4
4.18
0-0-2
2.09
2-0-2
4.27
2-1-1
4.39
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
2.11
3-0-1
5.62
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
1.66
1-0-1
2.11
HB Koge
0-1-3
5.59
4-0-0
6.68
 —
1-0-1
2.54
2-0-2
5.21
2-1-1
5.57
0-0-2
2.12
0-2-0
2.77
3-0-1
6.61
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
1.99
0-0-2
2.84
Helsingor
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.86
 —
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-3
4.12
2-0-2
5.56
1-0-1
3.66
2-0-2
4.43
0-1-3
4.28
0-2-2
5.72
Hillerod
2-0-2
5.08
2-0-2
6.58
2-0-2
5.58
0-0-2
2.39
 —
0-3-1
5.55
0-1-1
2.02
1-0-1
2.33
2-1-1
6.72
1-0-1
2.30
1-0-1
1.77
1-0-1
2.63
Hobro
0-2-2
4.97
1-1-2
6.45
1-1-2
5.24
1-0-1
2.61
1-3-0
5.25
 —
0-1-1
1.78
0-1-1
2.56
3-1-0
6.55
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
1.63
1-0-1
2.44
Hvidovre
2-0-0
3.54
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.30
3-0-1
6.73
1-1-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.68
 —
0-1-3
7.06
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-2
6.23
0-2-2
5.53
2-2-0
6.96
Naestved
2-0-0
2.74
0-1-1
3.34
0-2-0
2.63
2-0-2
5.25
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.83
3-1-0
3.83
 —
1-1-0
3.51
0-3-1
4.77
0-1-3
3.87
1-0-3
5.59
Nykobing
1-1-2
4.06
1-0-3
5.19
1-0-3
4.23
1-0-1
1.80
1-1-2
4.13
0-1-3
4.29
0-0-2
1.76
0-1-1
1.93
 —
0-1-1
1.62
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
2.11
Sonderjyske
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-2
6.42
1-0-1
3.13
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-2
4.59
1-3-0
6.06
1-1-0
3.86
 —
1-1-2
4.50
2-2-0
6.25
Vejle BK
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.83
0-1-1
3.45
3-1-0
6.60
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.86
2-2-0
5.27
3-1-0
7.01
2-0-0
3.89
2-1-1
6.33
 —
2-1-1
7.12
Vendsyssel
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
2.56
2-2-0
5.09
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.96
0-2-2
3.91
3-0-1
5.21
1-0-1
3.33
0-2-2
4.58
1-1-2
3.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +8.9
Allowed 0.77 -9.4
Differential 0.93 +6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.29%7.81%5.21%3.12%1.56%1.04%26.04%
17.81%8.33%6.77%4.43%1.56%1.30%30.21%
25.21%6.77%3.65%4.43%1.04%0.26%21.35%
33.12%4.43%4.43%1.04%0.52%0.26%13.80%
41.56%1.56%1.04%0.52%—0.52%5.21%
5+1.04%1.30%0.26%0.26%0.52%—3.39%
Total26.04%30.21%21.35%13.80%5.21%3.39%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 1.96
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%—3.12%3.12%25.00%
16.25%—9.38%6.25%——21.88%
26.25%6.25%9.38%6.25%——28.12%
33.12%6.25%—3.12%——12.50%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total25.00%31.25%21.88%15.62%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.50 +0.25
SD 1.55 1.30 2.23
CV 0.88 0.86 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%—6.25%3.12%—28.12%
112.50%3.12%12.50%3.12%6.25%3.12%40.62%
2—9.38%—6.25%3.12%—18.75%
33.12%—3.12%3.12%——9.38%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total21.88%25.00%15.62%21.88%12.50%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.88 -0.69
SD 1.06 1.48 1.69
CV 0.89 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%15.62%—3.12%——25.00%
16.25%6.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%31.25%
29.38%3.12%3.12%—6.25%—21.88%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
43.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
5+———3.12%——3.12%
Total28.12%31.25%12.50%15.62%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.59 -0.03
SD 1.39 1.54 2.06
CV 0.89 0.97 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%—3.12%28.12%
112.50%3.12%9.38%—9.38%—34.38%
26.25%3.12%—6.25%——15.62%
3——6.25%———6.25%
46.25%—6.25%——3.12%15.62%
5+———————
Total31.25%15.62%25.00%12.50%9.38%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.75 -0.28
SD 1.39 1.65 2.17
CV 0.95 0.94 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%18.75%—3.12%—31.25%
19.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%—6.25%34.38%
212.50%3.12%3.12%——3.12%21.88%
33.12%3.12%6.25%———12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.12%21.88%34.38%3.12%3.12%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.59 -0.44
SD 1.02 1.50 1.95
CV 0.88 0.94 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%9.38%9.38%3.12%—3.12%40.62%
16.25%9.38%9.38%3.12%——28.12%
2—9.38%9.38%———18.75%
33.12%9.38%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%37.50%28.12%6.25%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.31 -0.28
SD 1.06 1.23 1.71
CV 1.03 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%——3.12%—15.62%
16.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
23.12%6.25%6.25%9.38%——25.00%
36.25%12.50%9.38%———28.12%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total25.00%40.62%18.75%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 1.28 +0.75
SD 1.45 1.08 1.92
CV 0.71 0.85 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%6.25%3.12%—3.12%25.00%
13.12%15.62%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
26.25%6.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%—28.12%
36.25%—6.25%3.12%——15.62%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%25.00%18.75%18.75%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.50 +0.06
SD 1.29 1.46 2.11
CV 0.83 0.97 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%—28.12%
13.12%12.50%6.25%15.62%—3.12%40.62%
2—6.25%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
33.12%———3.12%3.12%9.38%
4——3.12%——3.12%6.25%
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total6.25%25.00%28.12%25.00%6.25%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 2.28 -0.94
SD 1.33 1.35 1.74
CV 0.99 0.59 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%—3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
2—9.38%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
33.12%6.25%12.50%3.12%——25.00%
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+—3.12%——3.12%—6.25%
Total18.75%43.75%21.88%9.38%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.41 +0.47
SD 1.50 1.10 1.72
CV 0.80 0.78 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%—3.12%3.12%——15.62%
115.62%12.50%6.25%———34.38%
212.50%9.38%—3.12%——25.00%
3—9.38%————9.38%
4—3.12%—3.12%——6.25%
5+6.25%———3.12%—9.38%
Total43.75%34.38%9.38%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.94 +0.97
SD 1.63 1.11 1.84
CV 0.86 1.18 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
16.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
26.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%——25.00%
33.12%3.12%6.25%—3.12%—15.62%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total28.12%31.25%21.88%15.62%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.34 +0.16
SD 1.32 1.15 1.65
CV 0.88 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vejle BK 67 37.99 +29.01
2 Sonderjyske 56 33.52 +22.48
3 Hvidovre 58 37.80 +20.20
4 Vendsyssel 46 28.64 +17.36
5 Fredericia 45 28.34 +16.66

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Nykobing 23 22.05 +0.95
2 Helsingor 42 31.52 +10.48
3 Fremad Amager 34 23.28 +10.72
4 Hobro 38 27.01 +10.99
5 Naestved 43 29.96 +13.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredericia 6 Mar 18 – Apr 29 1 in 255
2 Vejle BK 7 Jul 23 – Aug 27 1 in 246
3 Helsingor 5 Aug 16 – Sep 10 1 in 124
4 Hillerod 3 Oct 21 – Nov 6 1 in 55
5 Hvidovre 5 Jul 30 – Aug 19 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 HB Koge 4 Mar 3 – Apr 2 1 in 133
2 Naestved 4 Feb 25 – Mar 18 1 in 125
3 Fredericia 4 Jul 29 – Aug 17 1 in 73
4 Nykobing 5 Jul 30 – Aug 21 1 in 57
5 Hillerod 4 Jul 22 – Aug 11 1 in 57

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hillerod 8 Oct 8 – Feb 25 1 in 59
2 Naestved 8 Aug 21 – Oct 14 1 in 53
3 Fredericia 11 Mar 18 – Jun 2 1 in 38
4 Vendsyssel 5 Mar 31 – Apr 30 1 in 19
5 Hobro 5 Sep 29 – Oct 30 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nykobing 11 Jul 23 – Oct 1 1 in 32
2 Naestved 6 Nov 12 – Mar 18 1 in 31
3 Hobro 8 Aug 7 – Sep 18 1 in 19
4 HB Koge 5 Feb 24 – Apr 2 1 in 11
5 Vejle BK 4 Apr 1 – Apr 20 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Vejle BK35.13%22.34%14.11%9.83%6.62%4.62%2.99%1.98%1.33%0.63%0.34%0.08%
Hvidovre32.95%22.58%14.70%9.82%6.99%4.61%3.08%2.27%1.51%0.84%0.45%0.20%
Sonderjyske10.70%15.19%15.48%13.69%11.00%9.51%7.59%6.36%4.47%3.13%1.99%0.89%
Vendsyssel2.43%5.18%7.15%8.59%9.82%10.35%11.18%11.46%10.69%9.89%8.23%5.03%
Fredericia2.15%3.96%6.36%7.67%8.98%10.24%10.79%11.61%11.90%10.74%9.06%6.54%
HB Koge3.84%6.91%8.59%10.95%11.34%11.12%10.83%9.46%9.04%7.82%6.42%3.68%
Naestved3.69%6.67%9.26%10.99%11.41%11.15%10.99%10.01%8.90%7.88%5.73%3.32%
Helsingor5.70%9.94%11.85%12.00%11.78%10.89%9.84%8.57%7.18%6.11%3.98%2.16%
Hillerod1.73%3.62%5.95%7.09%8.18%10.11%11.42%11.72%11.62%11.35%9.88%7.33%
Hobro1.31%2.57%4.33%5.90%7.78%9.30%9.75%11.71%12.65%12.91%12.57%9.22%
Fremad Amager0.22%0.62%1.31%2.14%3.66%4.63%6.28%8.16%11.08%15.01%20.50%26.39%
Nykobing0.15%0.42%0.91%1.33%2.44%3.47%5.26%6.69%9.63%13.69%20.85%35.16%
Team123456789101112
Vejle BK————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Sonderjyske————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Fredericia————————————
HB Koge————————————
Naestved————————————
Helsingor————————————
Hillerod————————————
Hobro————————————
Fremad Amager————————————
Nykobing————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.94%
Slight Edge
45.31%20.31%34.38%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.15 Elo pts.
158 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.32 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Vejle BK, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.66 * Some Luck: 4.66 to 6.99 * Lucky: 6.99 to 9.31 * Wild Swing: 9.31 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.86 * Close: 1.86 to 2.79 * Off: 2.79 to 3.72 * Way Off: 3.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.44 points
Some Luck
05.8215
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.335
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.34%
Vejle BK
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
11.84%
Fredericia
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.36
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
77%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.90
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.042
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Fredericia 39.36% 60.64%
Fremad Amager 12.58% 87.42%
HB Koge 52.75% 47.25%
Helsingor 62.16% 37.84%
Hillerod 36.68% 63.32%
Hobro 31.19% 68.81%
Hvidovre 91.65% 8.35%
Naestved 53.17% 46.83%
Nykobing 8.72% 91.28%
Sonderjyske 75.57% 24.43%
Vejle BK 92.65% 7.35%
Vendsyssel 43.52% 56.48%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Fredericia — 100%
Fremad Amager — 100%
HB Koge — 100%
Helsingor 100% —
Hillerod — 100%
Hobro — 100%
Hvidovre 100% —
Naestved 100% —
Nykobing — 100%
Sonderjyske 100% —
Vejle BK 100% —
Vendsyssel 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2022-07-22 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1451 1376 49.76% 27.99% 22.25% +4.3 3
2022-07-22 @ Sonderjyske L 1-2 1376 1451 22.25% 27.99% 49.76% -4.3 0
2022-07-22 Hillerod W 5-1 1402 1453 32.27% 30.15% 37.58% +20.3 3
2022-07-22 @ Vendsyssel L 1-5 1453 1402 37.58% 30.15% 32.27% -20.3 0
2022-07-23 Fredericia D 2-2 1401 1442 33.61% 30.21% 36.19% +0.1 1
2022-07-23 @ Nykobing D 2-2 1442 1401 36.19% 30.21% 33.61% -0.1 1
2022-07-23 Vejle BK L 0-6 1464 1459 40.38% 29.92% 29.70% -37.6 0
2022-07-23 @ Helsingor W 6-0 1459 1464 29.70% 29.92% 40.38% +37.6 3
2022-07-24 Hobro D 0-0 1436 1432 40.12% 29.95% 29.93% -0.4 1
2022-07-24 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1432 1436 29.93% 29.95% 40.12% +0.4 1
2022-07-24 Hvidovre D 2-2 1394 1486 27.21% 29.52% 43.27% +0.4 1
2022-07-24 @ Naestved D 2-2 1486 1394 43.27% 29.52% 27.21% -0.4 1
2022-07-29 Helsingor W 1-0 1433 1427 40.44% 29.92% 29.64% +5.7 4
2022-07-29 @ Hobro L 0-1 1427 1433 29.64% 29.92% 40.44% -5.7 0
2022-07-29 Naestved L 0-1 1442 1395 46.16% 28.94% 24.89% -7.9 1
2022-07-29 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1395 1442 24.89% 28.94% 46.16% +7.9 4
2022-07-30 Hvidovre L 0-2 1401 1486 27.99% 29.67% 42.34% -10.4 1
2022-07-30 @ Nykobing W 2-0 1486 1401 42.34% 29.67% 27.99% +10.4 4
2022-07-30 Sonderjyske L 1-5 1433 1455 36.47% 30.20% 33.33% -19.9 0
2022-07-30 @ Hillerod W 5-1 1455 1433 33.33% 30.20% 36.47% +19.9 6
2022-07-30 Vejle BK L 1-2 1372 1496 23.76% 28.58% 47.66% -4.5 0
2022-07-30 @ Fremad Amager W 2-1 1496 1372 47.66% 28.58% 23.76% +4.5 6
2022-07-31 Vendsyssel L 1-2 1436 1422 41.51% 29.79% 28.71% -6.9 1
2022-07-31 @ HB Koge W 2-1 1422 1436 28.71% 29.79% 41.51% +6.9 6
2022-08-05 Fredericia W 3-2 1421 1434 37.65% 30.15% 32.20% +5.5 3
2022-08-05 @ Helsingor L 2-3 1434 1421 32.20% 30.15% 37.65% -5.5 1
2022-08-05 Hillerod W 3-1 1496 1413 50.84% 27.65% 21.51% +7.1 7
2022-08-05 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1413 1496 21.51% 27.65% 50.84% -7.1 0
2022-08-06 Fremad Amager L 1-2 1429 1367 48.07% 28.47% 23.46% -7.7 6
2022-08-06 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1367 1429 23.46% 28.47% 48.07% +7.7 3
2022-08-06 HB Koge W 3-1 1475 1429 45.92% 29.00% 25.08% +8.2 9
2022-08-06 @ Sonderjyske L 1-3 1429 1475 25.08% 29.00% 45.92% -8.2 1
2022-08-07 Hobro W 2-0 1403 1439 34.45% 30.22% 35.33% +12.3 7
2022-08-07 @ Naestved L 0-2 1439 1403 35.33% 30.22% 34.45% -12.3 4
2022-08-07 Nykobing W 2-0 1501 1390 54.29% 26.42% 19.29% +7.4 9
2022-08-07 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1390 1501 19.29% 26.42% 54.29% -7.4 1
2022-08-11 HB Koge L 0-2 1406 1421 37.50% 30.16% 32.35% -12.8 0
2022-08-11 @ Hillerod W 2-0 1421 1406 32.35% 30.16% 37.50% +12.8 4
2022-08-12 Naestved D 0-0 1375 1415 33.85% 30.21% 35.94% +0.1 4
2022-08-12 @ Fremad Amager D 0-0 1415 1375 35.94% 30.21% 33.85% -0.1 8
2022-08-12 Sonderjyske L 0-3 1426 1483 31.58% 30.11% 38.32% -16.5 4
2022-08-12 @ Hobro W 3-0 1483 1426 38.32% 30.11% 31.58% +16.5 12
2022-08-12 Vejle BK L 0-1 1429 1508 28.75% 29.79% 41.45% -5.6 1
2022-08-12 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1508 1429 41.45% 29.79% 28.75% +5.6 12
2022-08-13 Hvidovre L 0-3 1426 1504 28.98% 29.83% 41.19% -15.5 3
2022-08-13 @ Helsingor W 3-0 1504 1426 41.19% 29.83% 28.98% +15.5 10
2022-08-13 Vendsyssel L 1-3 1383 1421 34.09% 30.22% 35.69% -10.4 1
2022-08-13 @ Nykobing W 3-1 1421 1383 35.69% 30.22% 34.09% +10.4 9
2022-08-16 Fremad Amager W 5-1 1519 1375 58.43% 24.66% 16.91% +10.2 13
2022-08-16 @ Hvidovre L 1-5 1375 1519 16.91% 24.66% 58.43% -10.2 4
2022-08-16 Helsingor L 0-4 1500 1411 51.54% 27.42% 21.04% -30.9 12
2022-08-16 @ Sonderjyske W 4-0 1411 1500 21.04% 27.42% 51.54% +30.9 6
2022-08-16 Hobro W 1-0 1432 1410 42.64% 29.62% 27.73% +5.5 12
2022-08-16 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1410 1432 27.73% 29.62% 42.64% -5.5 4
2022-08-16 Nykobing W 4-0 1434 1372 47.96% 28.50% 23.54% +17.0 7
2022-08-16 @ HB Koge L 0-4 1372 1434 23.54% 28.50% 47.96% -17.0 1
2022-08-17 Fredericia W 2-1 1393 1423 35.28% 30.22% 34.50% +6.0 3
2022-08-17 @ Hillerod L 1-2 1423 1393 34.50% 30.22% 35.28% -6.0 1
2022-08-17 Naestved W 6-0 1514 1415 52.84% 26.96% 20.20% +21.6 15
2022-08-17 @ Vejle BK L 0-6 1415 1514 20.20% 26.96% 52.84% -21.6 8
2022-08-19 Fremad Amager W 4-0 1442 1365 50.07% 27.89% 22.04% +16.0 9
2022-08-19 @ Helsingor L 0-4 1365 1442 22.04% 27.89% 50.07% -16.0 4
2022-08-19 HB Koge W 1-0 1529 1451 50.25% 27.84% 21.91% +4.5 16
2022-08-19 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1451 1529 21.91% 27.84% 50.25% -4.4 7
2022-08-20 Hillerod D 1-1 1404 1399 40.28% 29.93% 29.79% -0.4 5
2022-08-20 @ Hobro D 1-1 1399 1404 29.79% 29.93% 40.28% +0.4 4
2022-08-20 Sonderjyske W 2-1 1535 1469 48.69% 28.30% 23.01% +4.4 18
2022-08-20 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1469 1535 23.01% 28.30% 48.69% -4.4 12
2022-08-21 Nykobing W 3-0 1393 1355 44.82% 29.23% 25.94% +14.2 11
2022-08-21 @ Naestved L 0-3 1355 1393 25.94% 29.23% 44.82% -14.2 1
2022-08-21 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1417 1437 36.76% 30.19% 33.05% +11.7 4
2022-08-21 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1437 1417 33.05% 30.19% 36.76% -11.7 12
2022-08-26 Fredericia D 3-3 1349 1429 28.58% 29.77% 41.65% +0.3 5
2022-08-26 @ Fremad Amager D 3-3 1429 1349 41.65% 29.77% 28.58% -0.3 5
2022-08-26 Hobro D 1-1 1341 1404 30.81% 30.04% 39.14% +0.3 2
2022-08-26 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1404 1341 39.14% 30.04% 30.81% -0.3 6
2022-08-26 Naestved D 1-1 1464 1407 47.39% 28.65% 23.97% -0.8 13
2022-08-26 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1407 1464 23.97% 28.65% 47.39% +0.8 12
2022-08-27 Helsingor L 2-4 1446 1458 37.92% 30.13% 31.95% -10.0 7
2022-08-27 @ HB Koge W 4-2 1458 1446 31.95% 30.13% 37.92% +10.0 12
2022-08-27 Vejle BK L 0-2 1400 1540 22.30% 28.01% 49.69% -8.5 4
2022-08-27 @ Hillerod W 2-0 1540 1400 49.69% 28.01% 22.30% +8.5 21
2022-08-28 Hvidovre D 1-1 1425 1534 25.43% 29.10% 45.47% +0.7 13
2022-08-28 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1534 1425 45.47% 29.10% 25.43% -0.7 17
2022-09-01 Hobro W 6-0 1533 1404 56.63% 25.46% 17.91% +19.1 20
2022-09-01 @ Hvidovre L 0-6 1404 1533 17.91% 25.46% 56.63% -19.1 6
2022-09-02 Hillerod W 1-0 1349 1391 33.55% 30.20% 36.24% +6.6 8
2022-09-02 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1391 1349 36.24% 30.20% 33.55% -6.6 4
2022-09-02 Nykobing W 1-0 1468 1342 56.26% 25.62% 18.13% +3.7 15
2022-09-02 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1342 1468 18.13% 25.62% 56.26% -3.7 2
2022-09-03 HB Koge L 1-2 1548 1436 54.51% 26.33% 19.16% -8.5 21
2022-09-03 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1436 1548 19.16% 26.33% 54.51% +8.5 10
2022-09-04 Sonderjyske L 1-3 1429 1463 34.64% 30.22% 35.14% -10.5 5
2022-09-04 @ Fredericia W 3-1 1463 1429 35.14% 30.22% 34.64% +10.5 16
2022-09-04 Vendsyssel W 3-0 1408 1426 37.04% 30.18% 32.79% +16.9 15
2022-09-04 @ Naestved L 0-3 1426 1408 32.79% 30.18% 37.04% -16.9 13
2022-09-09 Hvidovre W 3-2 1474 1552 28.86% 29.81% 41.33% +6.5 19
2022-09-09 @ Sonderjyske L 2-3 1552 1474 41.33% 29.81% 28.86% -6.5 20
2022-09-09 Naestved D 1-1 1445 1425 42.30% 29.67% 28.03% -0.5 11
2022-09-09 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1425 1445 28.03% 29.67% 42.30% +0.5 16
2022-09-10 Fremad Amager L 0-3 1338 1356 37.07% 30.18% 32.75% -18.5 2
2022-09-10 @ Nykobing W 3-0 1356 1338 32.75% 30.18% 37.07% +18.5 11
2022-09-10 Helsingor L 0-2 1385 1472 27.80% 29.64% 42.56% -10.3 4
2022-09-10 @ Hillerod W 2-0 1472 1385 42.56% 29.64% 27.80% +10.3 18
2022-09-11 Fredericia L 1-3 1385 1418 34.76% 30.22% 35.02% -10.5 6
2022-09-11 @ Hobro W 3-1 1418 1385 35.02% 30.22% 34.76% +10.5 8
2022-09-11 Vejle BK W 2-0 1409 1540 23.19% 28.37% 48.45% +15.5 16
2022-09-11 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1540 1409 48.45% 28.37% 23.19% -15.5 21
2022-09-16 HB Koge L 2-3 1374 1444 29.85% 29.94% 40.20% -5.2 11
2022-09-16 @ Fremad Amager W 3-2 1444 1374 40.20% 29.94% 29.85% +5.2 14
2022-09-16 Naestved L 1-2 1482 1426 47.30% 28.67% 24.03% -7.6 18
2022-09-16 @ Helsingor W 2-1 1426 1482 24.03% 28.67% 47.30% +7.6 19
2022-09-17 Nykobing W 3-1 1374 1319 47.11% 28.72% 24.17% +8.0 7
2022-09-17 @ Hillerod L 1-3 1319 1374 24.17% 28.72% 47.11% -8.0 2
2022-09-18 Hobro W 2-0 1524 1374 59.14% 24.33% 16.53% +6.3 24
2022-09-18 @ Vejle BK L 0-2 1374 1524 16.53% 24.33% 59.14% -6.3 6
2022-09-18 Hvidovre L 1-2 1429 1546 24.55% 28.84% 46.61% -4.6 8
2022-09-18 @ Fredericia W 2-1 1546 1429 46.61% 28.84% 24.55% +4.7 23
2022-09-19 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1480 1425 47.24% 28.69% 24.08% -0.6 20
2022-09-19 @ Sonderjyske D 2-2 1425 1480 24.08% 28.69% 47.24% +0.6 17
2022-09-29 Fremad Amager W 1-0 1368 1369 39.42% 30.02% 30.56% +5.9 9
2022-09-29 @ Hobro L 0-1 1369 1368 30.56% 30.02% 39.42% -5.9 11
2022-09-30 Vejle BK D 1-1 1550 1530 42.34% 29.67% 27.99% -0.5 24
2022-09-30 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1530 1550 27.99% 29.67% 42.34% +0.5 25
2022-10-01 Helsingor W 4-1 1425 1474 32.64% 30.17% 37.19% +15.6 20
2022-10-01 @ Vendsyssel L 1-4 1474 1425 37.19% 30.17% 32.64% -15.6 18
2022-10-01 Sonderjyske L 2-3 1312 1480 19.89% 26.78% 53.32% -3.6 2
2022-10-01 @ Nykobing W 3-2 1480 1312 53.32% 26.78% 19.89% +3.6 23
2022-10-02 Fredericia L 0-1 1449 1424 43.08% 29.55% 27.36% -7.5 14
2022-10-02 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1424 1449 27.36% 29.55% 43.08% +7.5 11
2022-10-02 Hillerod W 2-0 1433 1382 46.63% 28.84% 24.54% +9.3 22
2022-10-02 @ Naestved L 0-2 1382 1433 24.54% 28.84% 46.63% -9.3 7
2022-10-07 Hvidovre L 1-4 1363 1550 18.50% 25.88% 55.62% -8.7 11
2022-10-07 @ Fremad Amager W 4-1 1550 1363 55.62% 25.88% 18.50% +8.7 27
2022-10-07 Nykobing L 0-1 1432 1308 55.96% 25.74% 18.30% -9.2 11
2022-10-07 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1308 1432 18.30% 25.74% 55.96% +9.2 5
2022-10-08 Hobro D 0-0 1483 1374 54.23% 26.44% 19.33% -1.5 24
2022-10-08 @ Sonderjyske D 0-0 1374 1483 19.33% 26.44% 54.23% +1.4 10
2022-10-08 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1373 1441 30.11% 29.97% 39.91% +13.4 10
2022-10-08 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1441 1373 39.91% 29.97% 30.11% -13.4 20
2022-10-09 HB Koge D 1-1 1443 1442 39.69% 29.99% 30.31% -0.3 23
2022-10-09 @ Naestved D 1-1 1442 1443 30.31% 29.99% 39.69% +0.3 15
2022-10-09 Helsingor W 1-0 1531 1459 49.44% 28.08% 22.48% +4.6 28
2022-10-09 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1459 1531 22.48% 28.08% 49.44% -4.6 18
2022-10-13 Fredericia W 2-1 1428 1423 40.28% 29.93% 29.78% +5.4 23
2022-10-13 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1423 1428 29.78% 29.93% 40.28% -5.4 11
2022-10-14 Naestved L 0-4 1558 1442 55.01% 26.13% 18.86% -32.5 27
2022-10-14 @ Hvidovre W 4-0 1442 1558 18.86% 26.13% 55.01% +32.5 26
2022-10-14 Vejle BK W 3-0 1375 1536 20.52% 27.14% 52.33% +23.9 13
2022-10-14 @ Hobro L 0-3 1536 1375 52.33% 27.14% 20.52% -23.9 28
2022-10-15 Fremad Amager W 3-0 1442 1354 51.44% 27.45% 21.11% +11.8 18
2022-10-15 @ HB Koge L 0-3 1354 1442 21.11% 27.45% 51.44% -11.8 11
2022-10-15 Hillerod D 1-1 1317 1386 29.97% 29.96% 40.08% +0.4 6
2022-10-15 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1386 1317 40.08% 29.96% 29.97% -0.3 11
2022-10-15 Sonderjyske W 1-0 1454 1482 35.59% 30.22% 34.19% +6.4 21
2022-10-15 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1482 1454 34.19% 30.22% 35.59% -6.4 24
2022-10-21 Hillerod L 2-3 1476 1386 51.68% 27.37% 20.95% -7.7 24
2022-10-21 @ Sonderjyske W 3-2 1386 1476 20.95% 27.37% 51.68% +7.7 14
2022-10-22 Hvidovre W 3-1 1512 1526 37.54% 30.15% 32.30% +10.0 31
2022-10-22 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1526 1512 32.30% 30.15% 37.54% -10.0 27
2022-10-22 Nykobing W 1-0 1342 1317 43.08% 29.55% 27.37% +5.4 14
2022-10-22 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1317 1342 27.37% 29.55% 43.08% -5.4 6
2022-10-23 HB Koge W 1-0 1433 1454 36.60% 30.19% 33.20% +6.2 26
2022-10-23 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1454 1433 33.20% 30.19% 36.60% -6.2 18
2022-10-23 Helsingor L 2-3 1475 1460 41.59% 29.78% 28.64% -6.6 26
2022-10-23 @ Naestved W 3-2 1460 1475 28.64% 29.78% 41.59% +6.5 24
2022-10-23 Hobro D 0-0 1417 1399 42.11% 29.70% 28.19% -0.5 12
2022-10-23 @ Fredericia D 0-0 1399 1417 28.19% 29.70% 42.11% +0.5 14
2022-10-28 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1467 1439 43.45% 29.49% 27.06% -0.6 25
2022-10-28 @ Helsingor D 0-0 1439 1467 27.06% 29.49% 43.45% +0.6 27
2022-10-29 Fredericia W 3-2 1516 1417 52.92% 26.93% 20.15% +3.7 30
2022-10-29 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1417 1516 20.15% 26.93% 52.92% -3.7 12
2022-10-29 Fremad Amager W 3-0 1394 1348 45.91% 29.00% 25.09% +13.8 17
2022-10-29 @ Hillerod L 0-3 1348 1394 25.09% 29.00% 45.91% -13.8 14
2022-10-29 Vejle BK L 4-5 1312 1522 16.93% 24.67% 58.40% -3.0 6
2022-10-29 @ Nykobing W 5-4 1522 1312 58.40% 24.67% 16.93% +2.9 34
2022-10-30 Naestved D 0-0 1400 1468 30.04% 29.96% 39.99% +0.4 15
2022-10-30 @ Hobro D 0-0 1468 1400 39.99% 29.96% 30.04% -0.4 27
2022-10-30 Sonderjyske L 1-4 1448 1468 36.70% 30.19% 33.11% -15.5 18
2022-10-30 @ HB Koge W 4-1 1468 1448 33.11% 30.19% 36.70% +15.5 27
2022-11-04 HB Koge L 0-1 1400 1432 34.97% 30.22% 34.80% -6.5 15
2022-11-04 @ Hobro W 1-0 1432 1400 34.80% 30.22% 34.97% +6.5 21
2022-11-04 Sonderjyske W 1-0 1334 1483 21.48% 27.63% 50.89% +8.5 17
2022-11-04 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1483 1334 50.89% 27.63% 21.48% -8.5 27
2022-11-05 Helsingor L 0-1 1520 1466 46.92% 28.77% 24.32% -8.0 30
2022-11-05 @ Hvidovre W 1-0 1466 1520 24.32% 28.77% 46.92% +8.0 28
2022-11-05 Nykobing L 1-2 1440 1309 56.81% 25.38% 17.81% -8.8 27
2022-11-05 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1309 1440 17.81% 25.38% 56.81% +8.8 9
2022-11-06 Fredericia W 5-0 1468 1413 47.13% 28.71% 24.15% +21.5 30
2022-11-06 @ Naestved L 0-5 1413 1468 24.15% 28.71% 47.13% -21.4 12
2022-11-06 Hillerod L 2-3 1525 1407 55.14% 26.08% 18.78% -8.1 34
2022-11-06 @ Vejle BK W 3-2 1407 1525 18.78% 26.08% 55.14% +8.1 20
2022-11-12 Naestved D 1-1 1318 1489 19.65% 26.64% 53.72% +1.3 10
2022-11-12 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1489 1318 53.72% 26.64% 19.65% -1.3 31
2022-11-12 Vendsyssel L 2-3 1343 1431 27.64% 29.60% 42.76% -4.9 17
2022-11-12 @ Fremad Amager W 3-2 1431 1343 42.76% 29.60% 27.64% +4.9 30
2022-11-13 Helsingor W 4-1 1391 1474 28.29% 29.72% 42.00% +17.1 15
2022-11-13 @ Fredericia L 1-4 1474 1391 42.00% 29.72% 28.29% -17.1 28
2022-11-13 Hvidovre L 1-3 1439 1512 29.50% 29.90% 40.60% -9.3 21
2022-11-13 @ HB Koge W 3-1 1512 1439 40.60% 29.90% 29.50% +9.3 33
2022-11-14 Vejle BK L 0-1 1475 1516 33.64% 30.21% 36.15% -6.3 27
2022-11-14 @ Sonderjyske W 1-0 1516 1475 36.15% 30.21% 33.64% +6.3 37
2023-02-11 Hobro D 2-2 1416 1393 42.67% 29.62% 27.71% -0.4 21
2023-02-11 @ Hillerod D 2-2 1393 1416 27.71% 29.62% 42.67% +0.4 16
2023-02-17 HB Koge L 1-4 1457 1429 43.48% 29.48% 27.03% -17.5 28
2023-02-17 @ Helsingor W 4-1 1429 1457 27.03% 29.48% 43.48% +17.5 24
2023-02-18 Fremad Amager W 4-1 1523 1338 63.18% 22.32% 14.49% +6.6 40
2023-02-18 @ Vejle BK L 1-4 1338 1523 14.49% 22.32% 63.18% -6.6 17
2023-02-18 Nykobing W 3-1 1521 1319 65.08% 21.32% 13.61% +4.3 36
2023-02-18 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1319 1521 13.61% 21.32% 65.08% -4.3 10
2023-02-19 Hillerod L 0-2 1408 1415 38.63% 30.08% 31.29% -13.1 15
2023-02-19 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1415 1408 31.29% 30.08% 38.63% +13.1 24
2023-02-19 Sonderjyske D 0-0 1488 1468 42.30% 29.67% 28.02% -0.6 32
2023-02-19 @ Naestved D 0-0 1468 1488 28.02% 29.67% 42.30% +0.6 28
2023-02-19 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1394 1436 33.57% 30.21% 36.22% +10.8 19
2023-02-19 @ Hobro L 1-3 1436 1394 36.22% 30.21% 33.57% -10.8 30
2023-02-24 Fredericia W 4-0 1469 1395 49.61% 28.03% 22.36% +16.2 31
2023-02-24 @ Sonderjyske L 0-4 1395 1469 22.36% 28.03% 49.61% -16.2 15
2023-02-24 Hobro W 2-1 1331 1405 29.43% 29.89% 40.68% +6.8 20
2023-02-24 @ Fremad Amager L 1-2 1405 1331 40.68% 29.89% 29.43% -6.8 19
2023-02-24 Vejle BK D 0-0 1447 1529 28.33% 29.73% 41.94% +0.5 25
2023-02-24 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1529 1447 41.94% 29.73% 28.33% -0.5 41
2023-02-25 Helsingor W 3-0 1315 1440 23.71% 28.56% 47.72% +22.3 13
2023-02-25 @ Nykobing L 0-3 1440 1315 47.72% 28.56% 23.71% -22.3 28
2023-02-25 Hvidovre D 1-1 1428 1525 26.66% 29.40% 43.94% +0.6 25
2023-02-25 @ Hillerod D 1-1 1525 1428 43.94% 29.40% 26.66% -0.6 37
2023-02-25 Naestved W 3-0 1425 1487 30.85% 30.05% 39.10% +19.2 33
2023-02-25 @ Vendsyssel L 0-3 1487 1425 39.10% 30.05% 30.85% -19.2 32
2023-03-03 HB Koge W 3-0 1379 1447 30.10% 29.97% 39.93% +19.5 18
2023-03-03 @ Fredericia L 0-3 1447 1379 39.93% 29.97% 30.10% -19.5 25
2023-03-03 Hillerod W 2-0 1418 1429 37.96% 30.13% 31.91% +11.4 31
2023-03-03 @ Helsingor L 0-2 1429 1418 31.91% 30.13% 37.96% -11.4 25
2023-03-04 Sonderjyske W 2-1 1525 1485 45.04% 29.19% 25.77% +4.8 40
2023-03-04 @ Hvidovre L 1-2 1485 1525 25.77% 29.19% 45.04% -4.8 31
2023-03-05 Fremad Amager L 2-3 1468 1338 56.75% 25.41% 17.84% -8.3 32
2023-03-05 @ Naestved W 3-2 1338 1468 17.84% 25.41% 56.75% +8.3 23
2023-03-05 Nykobing W 2-1 1398 1337 47.92% 28.51% 23.57% +4.5 22
2023-03-05 @ Hobro L 1-2 1337 1398 23.57% 28.51% 47.92% -4.5 13
2023-03-05 Vendsyssel W 1-0 1529 1444 51.02% 27.59% 21.39% +4.4 44
2023-03-05 @ Vejle BK L 0-1 1444 1529 21.39% 27.59% 51.02% -4.3 33
2023-03-11 HB Koge W 4-2 1333 1428 26.85% 29.44% 43.71% +11.1 16
2023-03-11 @ Nykobing L 2-4 1428 1333 43.71% 29.44% 26.85% -11.1 25
2023-03-11 Helsingor L 0-1 1346 1429 28.32% 29.72% 41.96% -5.5 23
2023-03-11 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1429 1346 41.96% 29.72% 28.32% +5.5 34
2023-03-11 Naestved W 2-0 1417 1460 33.53% 30.20% 36.27% +12.5 28
2023-03-11 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1460 1417 36.27% 30.20% 33.53% -12.5 32
2023-03-12 Fredericia W 3-1 1533 1399 57.27% 25.18% 17.55% +5.8 47
2023-03-12 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1399 1533 17.55% 25.18% 57.27% -5.8 18
2023-03-12 Hvidovre D 2-2 1402 1530 23.51% 28.49% 48.01% +0.7 23
2023-03-12 @ Hobro D 2-2 1530 1402 48.01% 28.49% 23.51% -0.7 41
2023-03-12 Sonderjyske L 2-3 1440 1480 33.80% 30.21% 35.99% -5.7 33
2023-03-12 @ Vendsyssel W 3-2 1480 1440 35.99% 30.21% 33.80% +5.6 34
2023-03-18 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1393 1341 46.75% 28.81% 24.44% +4.6 21
2023-03-18 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1341 1393 24.44% 28.81% 46.75% -4.6 23
2023-03-18 Hillerod L 0-1 1417 1430 37.70% 30.15% 32.16% -6.8 25
2023-03-18 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1430 1417 32.16% 30.15% 37.70% +6.8 31
2023-03-18 Hobro W 2-1 1434 1403 43.96% 29.40% 26.64% +5.0 37
2023-03-18 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1403 1434 26.64% 29.40% 43.96% -5.0 23
2023-03-18 Nykobing D 1-1 1486 1344 58.22% 24.75% 17.02% -1.5 35
2023-03-18 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1344 1486 17.02% 24.75% 58.22% +1.5 17
2023-03-18 Vejle BK L 0-2 1447 1539 27.27% 29.53% 43.20% -10.1 32
2023-03-18 @ Naestved W 2-0 1539 1447 43.20% 29.53% 27.27% +10.1 50
2023-03-18 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1529 1434 52.30% 27.15% 20.54% +6.8 44
2023-03-18 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1434 1529 20.54% 27.15% 52.30% -6.8 33

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2023-03-31 Nykobing W 2-0 1397 1345 46.77% 28.80% 24.43% +9.3 3
2023-03-31 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1345 1397 24.43% 28.80% 46.77% -9.3 0
2023-03-31 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1439 1427 41.26% 29.82% 28.92% -0.5 1
2023-03-31 @ Helsingor D 0-0 1427 1439 28.92% 29.82% 41.26% +0.5 1
2023-04-01 Fremad Amager W 1-0 1437 1336 53.08% 26.87% 20.04% +4.1 3
2023-04-01 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1336 1437 20.04% 26.87% 53.08% -4.1 0
2023-04-01 Sonderjyske L 1-2 1549 1485 48.42% 28.37% 23.20% -7.8 0
2023-04-01 @ Vejle BK W 2-1 1485 1549 23.20% 28.37% 48.42% +7.8 3
2023-04-02 Hobro L 1-3 1410 1398 41.25% 29.82% 28.93% -11.9 0
2023-04-02 @ HB Koge W 3-1 1398 1410 28.93% 29.82% 41.25% +11.9 3
2023-04-02 Hvidovre W 3-2 1437 1536 26.50% 29.37% 44.14% +6.8 3
2023-04-02 @ Naestved L 2-3 1536 1437 44.14% 29.37% 26.50% -6.9 0
2023-04-09 Fredericia L 1-3 1332 1407 29.29% 29.87% 40.84% -9.3 0
2023-04-09 @ Fremad Amager W 3-1 1407 1332 40.84% 29.87% 29.29% +9.3 6
2023-04-09 HB Koge L 3-5 1336 1398 30.89% 30.05% 39.06% -8.2 0
2023-04-09 @ Nykobing W 5-3 1398 1336 39.06% 30.05% 30.89% +8.2 3
2023-04-09 Helsingor W 3-2 1529 1439 51.70% 27.36% 20.93% +3.8 3
2023-04-09 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1439 1529 20.93% 27.36% 51.70% -3.8 1
2023-04-10 Hillerod W 2-1 1410 1441 35.16% 30.22% 34.62% +6.0 6
2023-04-10 @ Hobro L 1-2 1441 1410 34.62% 30.22% 35.16% -6.1 3
2023-04-10 Naestved W 1-0 1492 1444 46.23% 28.93% 24.84% +5.0 6
2023-04-10 @ Sonderjyske L 0-1 1444 1492 24.84% 28.93% 46.23% -5.0 3
2023-04-10 Vejle BK D 0-0 1428 1541 24.88% 28.94% 46.18% +0.8 2
2023-04-10 @ Vendsyssel D 0-0 1541 1428 46.18% 28.94% 24.88% -0.9 1
2023-04-13 Hvidovre D 0-0 1541 1533 40.69% 29.89% 29.42% -0.4 2
2023-04-13 @ Vejle BK D 0-0 1533 1541 29.42% 29.89% 40.69% +0.4 4
2023-04-14 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1497 1429 48.93% 28.23% 22.84% -0.9 7
2023-04-14 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1429 1497 22.84% 28.23% 48.93% +1.0 3
2023-04-15 Nykobing W 2-0 1435 1328 53.88% 26.58% 19.54% +7.5 6
2023-04-15 @ Hillerod L 0-2 1328 1435 19.54% 26.58% 53.88% -7.5 0
2023-04-16 HB Koge W 6-1 1416 1406 40.95% 29.86% 29.19% +20.7 9
2023-04-16 @ Fredericia L 1-6 1406 1416 29.19% 29.86% 40.95% -20.7 3
2023-04-16 Hobro D 1-1 1323 1416 27.08% 29.49% 43.43% +0.6 1
2023-04-16 @ Fremad Amager D 1-1 1416 1323 43.43% 29.49% 27.08% -0.6 7
2023-04-20 Vejle BK D 1-1 1439 1540 26.22% 29.30% 44.48% +0.6 4
2023-04-20 @ Naestved D 1-1 1540 1439 44.48% 29.30% 26.22% -0.7 3
2023-04-21 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1320 1323 39.15% 30.04% 30.81% +5.6 3
2023-04-21 @ Nykobing L 1-2 1323 1320 30.81% 30.04% 39.15% -5.6 1
2023-04-21 Sonderjyske L 4-5 1435 1496 31.00% 30.06% 38.94% -5.1 1
2023-04-21 @ Helsingor W 5-4 1496 1435 38.94% 30.06% 31.00% +5.1 10
2023-04-22 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1533 1430 53.42% 26.75% 19.83% -1.4 5
2023-04-22 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1430 1533 19.83% 26.75% 53.42% +1.4 4
2023-04-23 Fredericia L 0-1 1415 1437 36.55% 30.20% 33.25% -6.7 7
2023-04-23 @ Hobro W 1-0 1437 1415 33.25% 30.20% 36.55% +6.7 12
2023-04-23 Hillerod W 2-0 1385 1442 31.56% 30.11% 38.33% +13.0 6
2023-04-23 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1442 1385 38.33% 30.11% 31.56% -13.0 6
2023-04-25 Naestved W 4-2 1430 1440 38.20% 30.11% 31.69% +8.8 4
2023-04-25 @ Helsingor L 2-4 1440 1430 31.69% 30.11% 38.20% -8.8 4
2023-04-28 HB Koge L 0-1 1318 1399 28.54% 29.76% 41.69% -5.6 1
2023-04-28 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1399 1318 41.69% 29.76% 28.54% +5.6 9
2023-04-28 Nykobing W 3-1 1409 1326 50.81% 27.66% 21.53% +7.2 10
2023-04-28 @ Hobro L 1-3 1326 1409 21.53% 27.66% 50.81% -7.2 3
2023-04-29 Fredericia L 1-2 1429 1443 37.59% 30.15% 32.26% -6.4 6
2023-04-29 @ Hillerod W 2-1 1443 1429 32.26% 30.15% 37.59% +6.4 15
2023-04-29 Hvidovre L 0-3 1501 1532 35.26% 30.22% 34.52% -17.8 10
2023-04-29 @ Sonderjyske W 3-0 1532 1501 34.52% 30.22% 35.26% +17.8 8
2023-04-30 Helsingor W 2-1 1539 1439 53.07% 26.88% 20.05% +3.9 6
2023-04-30 @ Vejle BK L 1-2 1439 1539 20.05% 26.88% 53.07% -3.9 4
2023-04-30 Naestved W 2-1 1431 1431 39.60% 30.00% 30.40% +5.5 7
2023-04-30 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1431 1431 30.40% 30.00% 39.60% -5.5 4
2023-05-05 Hillerod W 1-0 1312 1423 25.17% 29.02% 45.81% +7.9 4
2023-05-05 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1423 1312 45.81% 29.02% 25.17% -7.9 6
2023-05-05 Hobro D 2-2 1450 1416 44.29% 29.34% 26.37% -0.5 16
2023-05-05 @ Fredericia D 2-2 1416 1450 26.37% 29.34% 44.29% +0.5 11
2023-05-05 Vejle BK L 0-1 1550 1543 40.45% 29.92% 29.63% -7.2 8
2023-05-05 @ Hvidovre W 1-0 1543 1550 29.63% 29.92% 40.45% +7.2 9
2023-05-06 Nykobing W 3-1 1404 1319 51.13% 27.55% 21.32% +7.1 12
2023-05-06 @ HB Koge L 1-3 1319 1404 21.32% 27.55% 51.13% -7.1 3
2023-05-06 Sonderjyske L 0-1 1437 1484 32.90% 30.18% 36.92% -6.2 7
2023-05-06 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1484 1437 36.92% 30.18% 32.90% +6.2 13
2023-05-07 Helsingor W 2-1 1425 1435 38.22% 30.11% 31.66% +5.7 7
2023-05-07 @ Naestved L 1-2 1435 1425 31.66% 30.11% 38.22% -5.7 4
2023-05-11 Fremad Amager L 1-2 1416 1320 52.53% 27.07% 20.40% -8.3 11
2023-05-11 @ Hobro W 2-1 1320 1416 20.40% 27.07% 52.53% +8.3 7
2023-05-11 Vejle BK D 1-1 1490 1551 31.06% 30.07% 38.87% +0.3 14
2023-05-11 @ Sonderjyske D 1-1 1551 1490 38.87% 30.07% 31.06% -0.3 10
2023-05-12 Hillerod W 5-2 1312 1415 25.95% 29.23% 44.82% +15.5 6
2023-05-12 @ Nykobing L 2-5 1415 1312 44.82% 29.23% 25.95% -15.5 6
2023-05-12 Hvidovre L 0-1 1429 1542 24.93% 28.95% 46.12% -5.0 4
2023-05-12 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1542 1429 46.12% 28.95% 24.93% +5.0 11
2023-05-13 Fredericia D 2-2 1411 1449 34.13% 30.22% 35.65% +0.0 13
2023-05-13 @ HB Koge D 2-2 1449 1411 35.65% 30.22% 34.13% -0.0 17
2023-05-14 Vendsyssel L 2-3 1431 1430 39.68% 30.00% 30.33% -6.3 7
2023-05-14 @ Naestved W 3-2 1430 1431 30.33% 30.00% 39.68% +6.3 10
2023-05-18 Sonderjyske L 1-2 1547 1490 47.45% 28.63% 23.92% -7.6 11
2023-05-18 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1490 1547 23.92% 28.63% 47.45% +7.6 17
2023-05-19 HB Koge W 1-0 1400 1411 37.92% 30.13% 31.95% +6.1 9
2023-05-19 @ Hillerod L 0-1 1411 1400 31.95% 30.13% 37.92% -6.1 13
2023-05-19 Hobro L 1-2 1327 1408 28.51% 29.76% 41.73% -5.3 6
2023-05-19 @ Nykobing W 2-1 1408 1327 41.73% 29.76% 28.51% +5.2 14
2023-05-20 Helsingor W 2-0 1437 1424 41.32% 29.81% 28.87% +10.6 13
2023-05-20 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1424 1437 28.87% 29.81% 41.32% -10.6 4
2023-05-21 Fremad Amager D 0-0 1449 1328 55.61% 25.89% 18.50% -1.5 18
2023-05-21 @ Fredericia D 0-0 1328 1449 18.50% 25.89% 55.61% +1.5 8
2023-05-21 Naestved W 3-1 1550 1425 56.16% 25.66% 18.18% +6.0 13
2023-05-21 @ Vejle BK L 1-3 1425 1550 18.18% 25.66% 56.16% -6.0 7
2023-05-26 HB Koge L 0-2 1413 1405 40.74% 29.88% 29.38% -13.6 14
2023-05-26 @ Hobro W 2-0 1405 1413 29.38% 29.88% 40.74% +13.6 16
2023-05-26 Hillerod W 4-0 1448 1406 45.41% 29.11% 25.48% +18.2 21
2023-05-26 @ Fredericia L 0-4 1406 1448 25.48% 29.11% 45.41% -18.2 9
2023-05-26 Nykobing W 4-3 1330 1322 40.70% 29.89% 29.41% +5.0 11
2023-05-26 @ Fremad Amager L 3-4 1322 1330 29.41% 29.89% 40.70% -5.0 6
2023-05-27 Hvidovre L 2-3 1447 1540 27.19% 29.52% 43.30% -4.8 13
2023-05-27 @ Vendsyssel W 3-2 1540 1447 43.30% 29.52% 27.19% +4.8 14
2023-05-28 Sonderjyske D 3-3 1419 1498 28.76% 29.80% 41.44% +0.3 8
2023-05-28 @ Naestved D 3-3 1498 1419 41.44% 29.80% 28.76% -0.3 18
2023-05-28 Vejle BK D 1-1 1414 1556 22.06% 27.90% 50.03% +1.0 5
2023-05-28 @ Helsingor D 1-1 1556 1414 50.03% 27.90% 22.06% -1.0 14
2023-06-02 Fredericia L 1-5 1317 1466 21.49% 27.64% 50.87% -13.1 6
2023-06-02 @ Nykobing W 5-1 1466 1317 50.87% 27.64% 21.49% +13.0 24
2023-06-02 Fremad Amager W 4-2 1419 1335 50.94% 27.62% 21.44% +6.4 19
2023-06-02 @ HB Koge L 2-4 1335 1419 21.44% 27.62% 50.94% -6.4 11
2023-06-02 Hobro D 0-0 1387 1400 37.82% 30.14% 32.04% -0.2 10
2023-06-02 @ Hillerod D 0-0 1400 1387 32.04% 30.14% 37.82% +0.2 15
2023-06-04 Helsingor W 3-2 1497 1415 50.78% 27.67% 21.55% +3.9 21
2023-06-04 @ Sonderjyske L 2-3 1415 1497 21.55% 27.67% 50.78% -3.9 5
2023-06-04 Naestved L 2-3 1545 1419 56.17% 25.66% 18.18% -8.2 14
2023-06-04 @ Hvidovre W 3-2 1419 1545 18.18% 25.66% 56.17% +8.2 11
2023-06-04 Vendsyssel W 4-3 1555 1443 54.59% 26.30% 19.11% +3.4 17
2023-06-04 @ Vejle BK L 3-4 1443 1555 19.11% 26.30% 54.59% -3.4 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-11-05 17.81% Nykobing 1309 2 @ Vendsyssel 1440 1
2 2023-03-05 17.84% Fremad Amager 1338 3 @ Naestved 1468 2
3 2023-06-04 18.18% Naestved 1419 3 @ Hvidovre 1545 2
4 2022-10-07 18.30% Nykobing 1308 1 @ Fredericia 1432 0
5 2022-11-06 18.78% Hillerod 1407 3 @ Vejle BK 1525 2
6 2022-10-14 18.86% Naestved 1442 4 @ Hvidovre 1558 0
7 2022-09-03 19.16% HB Koge 1436 2 @ Vejle BK 1548 1
8 2023-05-11 20.40% Fremad Amager 1320 2 @ Hobro 1416 1
9 2022-10-14 20.52% @ Hobro 1375 3 Vejle BK 1536 0
10 2022-10-21 20.95% Hillerod 1386 3 @ Sonderjyske 1476 2
11 2022-08-16 21.04% Helsingor 1411 4 @ Sonderjyske 1500 0
12 2022-11-04 21.48% @ Fremad Amager 1334 1 Sonderjyske 1483 0
13 2022-09-11 23.19% @ Vendsyssel 1409 2 Vejle BK 1540 0
14 2023-04-01 23.20% Sonderjyske 1485 2 @ Vejle BK 1549 1
15 2022-08-06 23.46% Fremad Amager 1367 2 @ Vendsyssel 1429 1
16 2023-02-25 23.71% @ Nykobing 1315 3 Helsingor 1440 0
17 2023-05-18 23.92% Sonderjyske 1490 2 @ Hvidovre 1547 1
18 2022-09-16 24.03% Naestved 1426 2 @ Helsingor 1482 1
19 2022-11-05 24.32% Helsingor 1466 1 @ Hvidovre 1520 0
20 2022-07-29 24.89% Naestved 1395 1 @ Fredericia 1442 0
21 2023-05-05 25.17% @ Fremad Amager 1312 1 Hillerod 1423 0
22 2023-05-12 25.95% @ Nykobing 1312 5 Hillerod 1415 2
23 2023-04-02 26.50% @ Naestved 1437 3 Hvidovre 1536 2
24 2023-03-11 26.85% @ Nykobing 1333 4 HB Koge 1428 2
25 2023-02-17 27.03% HB Koge 1429 4 @ Helsingor 1457 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-07-23 37.57 Vejle BK 6 1459 29.70% @ Helsingor 0 1464 40.38% 29.92%
2 2022-10-14 32.46 Naestved 4 1442 18.86% @ Hvidovre 0 1558 55.01% 26.13%
3 2022-08-16 30.88 Helsingor 4 1411 21.04% @ Sonderjyske 0 1500 51.54% 27.42%
4 2022-10-14 23.92 @ Hobro 3 1375 20.52% Vejle BK 0 1536 52.33% 27.14%
5 2023-02-25 22.28 @ Nykobing 3 1315 23.71% Helsingor 0 1440 47.72% 28.56%
6 2022-08-17 21.60 @ Vejle BK 6 1514 52.84% Naestved 0 1415 20.20% 26.96%
7 2022-11-06 21.45 @ Naestved 5 1468 47.13% Fredericia 0 1413 24.15% 28.71%
8 2023-04-16 20.71 @ Fredericia 6 1416 40.95% HB Koge 1 1406 29.19% 29.86%
9 2022-07-22 20.30 @ Vendsyssel 5 1402 32.27% Hillerod 1 1453 37.58% 30.15%
10 2022-07-30 19.87 Sonderjyske 5 1455 33.33% @ Hillerod 1 1433 36.47% 30.20%
11 2023-03-03 19.49 @ Fredericia 3 1379 30.10% HB Koge 0 1447 39.93% 29.97%
12 2023-02-25 19.19 @ Vendsyssel 3 1425 30.85% Naestved 0 1487 39.10% 30.05%
13 2022-09-01 19.10 @ Hvidovre 6 1533 56.63% Hobro 0 1404 17.91% 25.46%
14 2022-09-10 18.46 Fremad Amager 3 1356 32.75% @ Nykobing 0 1338 37.07% 30.18%
15 2023-05-26 18.21 @ Fredericia 4 1448 45.41% Hillerod 0 1406 25.48% 29.11%
16 2023-04-29 17.82 Hvidovre 3 1532 34.52% @ Sonderjyske 0 1501 35.26% 30.22%
17 2023-02-17 17.50 HB Koge 4 1429 27.03% @ Helsingor 1 1457 43.48% 29.48%
18 2022-11-13 17.06 @ Fredericia 4 1391 28.29% Helsingor 1 1474 42.00% 29.72%
19 2022-08-16 17.01 @ HB Koge 4 1434 47.96% Nykobing 0 1372 23.54% 28.50%
20 2022-09-04 16.93 @ Naestved 3 1408 37.04% Vendsyssel 0 1426 32.79% 30.18%
21 2022-08-12 16.48 Sonderjyske 3 1483 38.32% @ Hobro 0 1426 31.58% 30.11%
22 2023-02-24 16.24 @ Sonderjyske 4 1469 49.61% Fredericia 0 1395 22.36% 28.03%
23 2022-08-19 16.03 @ Helsingor 4 1442 50.07% Fremad Amager 0 1365 22.04% 27.89%
24 2022-10-01 15.61 @ Vendsyssel 4 1425 32.64% Helsingor 1 1474 37.19% 30.17%
25 2022-09-11 15.52 @ Vendsyssel 2 1409 23.19% Vejle BK 0 1540 48.45% 28.37%