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2021-22 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Horsens

64 pts

Lyngby · 63 pts

Relegated

Jammerbugt

26 pts

Esbjerg · 28 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Horsens

29.71 points above expected

64 points · 34.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Esbjerg

0.34 points below expected

28 points · 27.66 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Helsingor 22 15 6 1 51 52 20 +32 37.50 +13.50
2 Lyngby 22 12 7 3 43 45 21 +24 40.05 +2.95
3 Hvidovre 22 13 4 5 43 37 22 +15 34.27 +8.73
4 Horsens 22 12 4 6 40 37 21 +16 34.29 +5.71
5 Fredericia 22 11 4 7 37 38 36 +2 32.86 +4.14
6 Nykobing 22 7 4 11 25 35 37 -2 28.43 -3.43
7 HB Koge 22 6 7 9 25 28 32 -4 25.97 -0.97
8 Vendsyssel 22 5 9 8 24 25 31 -6 26.10 -2.10
9 Hobro 22 5 7 10 22 31 38 -7 25.20 -3.20
10 Esbjerg 22 5 5 12 20 24 38 -14 27.66 -7.66
11 Fremad Amager 22 5 3 14 18 24 48 -24 23.44 -5.44
12 Jammerbugt 22 4 4 14 16 19 51 -32 20.36 -4.36
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Horsens Promoted 32 19 7 6 64 55 29 +26 — —
2 Lyngby Promoted 32 18 9 5 63 62 29 +33 — —
3 Hvidovre 32 17 6 9 57 49 31 +18 — —
4 Helsingor 32 16 7 9 55 65 44 +21 — —
5 Fredericia 32 15 5 12 50 55 53 +2 — —
6 Nykobing 32 10 5 17 35 50 63 -13 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 HB Koge 32 10 12 10 42 45 41 +4 — —
2 Hobro 32 9 12 11 39 47 50 -3 — —
3 Vendsyssel 32 8 12 12 36 39 44 -5 — —
4 Fremad Amager 32 9 6 17 33 39 62 -23 — —
5 Esbjerg Relegated 32 6 10 16 28 36 54 -18 — —
6 Jammerbugt Relegated 32 7 5 20 26 32 74 -42 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Horsens 1639 64 34.29 +29.71 85.4% 12 25 30 34 38 44 55
Lyngby 1631 63 40.05 +22.95 72.5% 17 30 36 40 44 49 61
Hvidovre 1549 57 34.27 +22.73 94.5% 14 25 30 34 38 44 57
Helsingor 1503 55 37.50 +17.50 99.4% 15 28 34 38 41 47 58
Fredericia 1459 50 32.86 +17.14 78.8% 14 23 29 33 37 42 53
HB Koge 1446 42 25.97 +16.03 46.9% 4 17 22 26 30 35 47
Hobro 1438 39 25.20 +13.80 32.3% 6 16 21 25 29 35 48
Vendsyssel 1376 36 26.10 +9.90 40.1% 5 17 22 26 30 36 50
Nykobing 1374 35 28.43 +6.57 30.7% 6 19 25 28 32 38 50
Esbjerg 1327 28 27.66 +0.34 10.6% 7 18 24 28 32 37 54
Fremad Amager 1323 33 23.44 +9.56 18.4% 5 15 20 23 27 33 47
Jammerbugt 1205 26 20.36 +5.64 24.1% 2 12 17 20 24 29 42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ESB FRE FA HK HEL HOB HOR HVI JAM LYN NYK VEN
Esbjerg —
0-0-2
2.09
1-0-3
5.83
1-1-2
4.85
0-0-2
2.34
3-1-0
4.67
0-2-0
1.96
0-0-2
1.92
0-2-2
7.32
0-0-2
1.82
1-1-0
2.26
0-3-1
5.40
Fredericia
2-0-0
3.30
 —
2-0-0
3.59
0-1-1
3.45
1-0-3
4.37
1-0-1
2.95
1-1-2
4.39
2-0-2
4.92
2-0-0
3.66
0-1-3
3.70
3-1-0
6.55
1-1-0
3.43
Fremad Amager
3-0-1
4.91
0-0-2
1.81
 —
2-2-0
4.08
0-0-2
1.85
0-3-1
4.32
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-2
6.66
0-0-2
1.30
2-0-0
2.06
1-0-3
5.03
HB Koge
2-1-1
5.91
1-1-0
1.94
0-2-2
6.70
 —
0-1-1
1.61
0-3-1
5.49
2-0-0
1.96
0-0-2
2.32
3-0-1
7.52
0-2-0
1.47
1-0-1
2.25
1-2-1
5.86
Helsingor
2-0-0
3.05
3-0-1
6.39
2-0-0
3.57
1-1-0
3.82
 —
1-1-0
4.16
2-1-1
5.71
1-1-2
5.96
2-0-0
4.36
0-2-2
4.45
1-0-3
7.92
1-1-0
3.56
Hobro
0-1-3
6.10
1-0-1
2.41
1-3-0
6.44
1-3-0
5.24
0-1-1
1.32
 —
0-0-2
1.83
1-1-0
1.65
2-1-1
7.35
0-1-1
1.70
0-0-2
2.28
3-1-0
5.74
Horsens
0-2-0
3.45
2-1-1
6.38
2-0-0
3.16
0-0-2
3.42
1-1-2
5.06
2-0-0
3.57
 —
2-2-0
5.86
2-0-0
3.85
3-0-1
4.50
4-0-0
7.61
1-1-0
3.34
Hvidovre
2-0-0
3.48
2-0-2
5.82
2-0-0
3.43
2-0-0
3.07
2-1-1
4.79
0-1-1
3.77
0-2-2
4.88
 —
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-2
4.24
3-0-1
7.19
2-0-0
3.56
Jammerbugt
2-2-0
3.50
0-0-2
1.76
2-1-1
4.11
1-0-3
3.37
0-0-2
1.19
1-1-2
3.51
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
1.90
 —
0-0-2
1.51
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-3
3.63
Lyngby
2-0-0
3.59
3-1-0
7.11
2-0-0
4.18
0-2-0
3.98
2-2-0
6.30
1-1-0
3.73
1-0-3
6.25
2-1-1
6.52
2-0-0
3.97
 —
2-1-1
7.78
1-1-0
4.04
Nykobing
0-1-1
3.11
0-1-3
4.21
0-0-2
3.34
1-0-1
3.12
3-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.10
0-0-4
3.25
1-0-3
3.61
2-0-0
3.34
1-1-2
3.13
 —
0-2-0
2.70
Vendsyssel
1-3-0
5.33
0-1-1
1.95
3-0-1
5.72
1-2-1
4.88
0-1-1
1.84
0-1-3
5.02
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.84
3-0-1
7.17
0-1-1
1.41
0-2-0
2.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +11.1
Allowed 0.73 -8.0
Differential 0.90 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.21%7.55%4.43%4.69%1.04%1.30%24.22%
17.55%11.98%8.33%2.60%3.12%0.78%34.38%
24.43%8.33%5.21%2.08%0.78%0.26%21.09%
34.69%2.60%2.08%1.56%0.52%—11.46%
41.04%3.12%0.78%0.52%1.04%—6.51%
5+1.30%0.78%0.26%———2.34%
Total24.22%34.38%21.09%11.46%6.51%2.34%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 1.96
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%6.25%9.38%—3.12%40.62%
1—6.25%12.50%3.12%——21.88%
23.12%9.38%12.50%3.12%3.12%—31.25%
33.12%—————3.12%
4———————
5+——3.12%———3.12%
Total18.75%25.00%34.38%15.62%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.69 -0.56
SD 1.29 1.23 1.78
CV 1.15 0.73 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%6.25%3.12%3.12%—18.75%
19.38%6.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%3.12%34.38%
23.12%9.38%3.12%—3.12%—18.75%
36.25%3.12%6.25%———15.62%
46.25%———3.12%—9.38%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total28.12%25.00%18.75%12.50%12.50%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.66 +0.06
SD 1.37 1.49 2.26
CV 0.80 0.90 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—3.12%28.12%
16.25%12.50%9.38%—12.50%3.12%43.75%
26.25%——3.12%3.12%—12.50%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total21.88%25.00%21.88%9.38%15.62%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.94 -0.72
SD 1.16 1.64 2.14
CV 0.95 0.85 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
13.12%18.75%—3.12%3.12%—28.12%
29.38%6.25%6.25%———21.88%
312.50%——3.12%3.12%—18.75%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+———————
Total31.25%37.50%12.50%9.38%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.28 +0.12
SD 1.19 1.28 1.66
CV 0.84 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%—15.62%
112.50%3.12%9.38%———25.00%
23.12%6.25%9.38%3.12%——21.88%
36.25%6.25%—6.25%3.12%—21.88%
43.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total31.25%25.00%25.00%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 1.38 +0.66
SD 1.47 1.24 2.06
CV 0.72 0.90 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%——12.50%
19.38%21.88%15.62%3.12%3.12%—53.12%
23.12%3.12%9.38%——3.12%18.75%
33.12%3.12%3.12%———9.38%
4————3.12%—3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total21.88%31.25%31.25%6.25%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.56 -0.09
SD 1.14 1.37 1.75
CV 0.77 0.87 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%9.38%6.25%———28.12%
19.38%6.25%—3.12%——18.75%
23.12%25.00%————28.12%
33.12%—3.12%3.12%——9.38%
43.12%9.38%————12.50%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%53.12%9.38%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.91 +0.81
SD 1.55 0.82 1.67
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%——3.12%—18.75%
115.62%6.25%12.50%3.12%——37.50%
212.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
36.25%3.12%3.12%———12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total40.62%31.25%21.88%3.12%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.97 +0.56
SD 1.22 1.03 1.68
CV 0.80 1.06 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%6.25%15.62%—6.25%34.38%
16.25%9.38%12.50%—12.50%—40.62%
2—9.38%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4———3.12%——3.12%
5+———————
Total6.25%25.00%28.12%21.88%12.50%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.31 -1.31
SD 0.98 1.40 1.87
CV 0.98 0.61 —
Max 4 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%————9.38%
112.50%15.62%12.50%———40.62%
23.12%12.50%————15.62%
39.38%6.25%—6.25%——21.88%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total37.50%40.62%15.62%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.91 +1.03
SD 1.37 0.89 1.62
CV 0.71 0.99 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%6.25%6.25%—3.12%28.12%
1—12.50%6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%28.12%
2—9.38%—9.38%——18.75%
33.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
4—3.12%—3.12%3.12%—9.38%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total6.25%43.75%15.62%21.88%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.97 -0.41
SD 1.44 1.33 2.12
CV 0.92 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%12.50%3.12%6.25%3.12%—28.12%
16.25%25.00%6.25%3.12%——40.62%
26.25%3.12%9.38%3.12%——21.88%
3———————
4—9.38%————9.38%
5+———————
Total15.62%50.00%18.75%12.50%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.38 -0.16
SD 1.16 1.01 1.67
CV 0.95 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Horsens 64 34.29 +29.71
2 Lyngby 63 40.05 +22.95
3 Hvidovre 57 34.27 +22.73
4 Helsingor 55 37.50 +17.50
5 Fredericia 50 32.86 +17.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 28 27.66 +0.34
2 Jammerbugt 26 20.36 +5.64
3 Nykobing 35 28.43 +6.57
4 Fremad Amager 33 23.44 +9.56
5 Vendsyssel 36 26.10 +9.90

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyngby 5 Jul 25 – Aug 18 1 in 49
2 Horsens 5 Nov 7 – Feb 27 1 in 47
3 Hobro 3 Feb 26 – Mar 11 1 in 40
4 Hvidovre 4 Oct 16 – Nov 6 1 in 25
5 Helsingor 5 Dec 3 – Mar 18 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Helsingor 5 Apr 3 – Apr 30 1 in 1,697
2 Fremad Amager 5 Jul 23 – Aug 18 1 in 100
3 Fredericia 3 Sep 17 – Oct 1 1 in 40
4 Hobro 3 Oct 22 – Nov 6 1 in 37
5 Hvidovre 3 Apr 29 – May 12 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hobro 12 Feb 26 – May 19 1 in 47
2 Horsens 12 Mar 13 – May 29 1 in 42
3 Fremad Amager 6 Apr 15 – May 18 1 in 33
4 Helsingor 11 Oct 14 – Mar 18 1 in 14
5 Fredericia 8 Jul 23 – Sep 12 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 13 Dec 2 – May 18 1 in 103
2 Hobro 10 Jul 23 – Sep 24 1 in 26
3 Helsingor 5 Apr 3 – Apr 30 1 in 24
4 Vendsyssel 9 Jul 27 – Sep 25 1 in 21
5 HB Koge 8 Aug 1 – Sep 17 1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Horsens10.54%15.81%16.19%16.31%13.08%9.91%6.69%4.71%3.24%2.04%1.03%0.45%
Lyngby43.09%23.41%13.79%8.26%4.96%3.13%1.55%0.91%0.46%0.30%0.11%0.03%
Hvidovre10.11%14.95%17.56%15.99%12.92%10.12%7.20%4.75%3.12%1.73%1.23%0.32%
Helsingor26.02%24.02%17.57%11.50%8.04%5.22%3.55%2.09%1.11%0.54%0.30%0.04%
Fredericia6.32%10.95%14.47%15.08%14.67%11.54%9.04%7.25%4.92%3.09%1.79%0.88%
HB Koge0.46%1.46%2.99%4.66%6.96%10.04%11.78%13.52%14.38%13.60%11.86%8.29%
Hobro0.26%1.18%2.35%4.10%5.70%8.40%10.77%13.16%14.84%14.51%14.02%10.71%
Vendsyssel0.63%1.39%3.30%5.34%7.62%9.56%11.55%12.49%13.60%13.76%12.16%8.60%
Nykobing1.39%3.30%5.54%8.85%11.49%13.03%13.26%12.37%10.37%9.38%6.98%4.04%
Fremad Amager0.16%0.48%1.38%2.13%3.67%5.49%7.79%9.90%13.54%16.48%20.10%18.88%
Esbjerg0.99%2.93%4.55%7.00%9.51%11.26%12.65%13.19%11.84%11.10%9.16%5.82%
Jammerbugt0.03%0.12%0.31%0.78%1.38%2.30%4.17%5.66%8.58%13.47%21.26%41.94%
Team123456789101112
Horsens————————————
Lyngby————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Helsingor————————————
Fredericia————————————
HB Koge————————————
Hobro————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Nykobing————————————
Fremad Amager————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Jammerbugt————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.58%
Slight Edge
44.79%25.00%30.21%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
051.03500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
11%
Horsens, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.53 * Some Luck: 4.53 to 6.79 * Lucky: 6.79 to 9.05 * Wild Swing: 9.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.59 * Close: 1.59 to 2.39 * Off: 2.39 to 3.18 * Way Off: 3.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.10 points
Some Luck
05.6614
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.994
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.43%
Helsingor
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
10.61%
Esbjerg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.57
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1220.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Esbjerg 36.24% 63.76%
Fredericia 73.03% 26.97%
Fremad Amager 13.31% 86.69%
HB Koge 26.57% 73.43%
Helsingor 92.37% 7.63%
Hobro 21.99% 78.01%
Horsens 81.84% 18.16%
Hvidovre 81.65% 18.35%
Jammerbugt 4.92% 95.08%
Lyngby 96.64% 3.36%
Nykobing 43.60% 56.40%
Vendsyssel 27.84% 72.16%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Esbjerg — 100%
Fredericia 100% —
Fremad Amager — 100%
HB Koge — 100%
Helsingor 100% —
Hobro — 100%
Horsens 100% —
Hvidovre 100% —
Jammerbugt — 100%
Lyngby 100% —
Nykobing 100% —
Vendsyssel — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-07-23 Fremad Amager W 1-0 1453 1439 40.31% 31.60% 28.09% +10.0 3
2021-07-23 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1439 1453 28.09% 31.60% 40.31% -10.0 0
2021-07-23 HB Koge L 0-2 1477 1407 47.71% 30.52% 21.77% -27.7 0
2021-07-23 @ Horsens W 2-0 1407 1477 21.77% 30.52% 47.71% +27.7 3
2021-07-23 Hobro W 2-0 1448 1437 39.89% 31.64% 28.48% +19.0 3
2021-07-23 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1437 1448 28.48% 31.64% 39.89% -19.0 0
2021-07-24 Jammerbugt D 1-1 1430 1388 44.14% 31.15% 24.71% -1.2 1
2021-07-24 @ Hvidovre D 1-1 1388 1430 24.71% 31.15% 44.14% +1.2 1
2021-07-25 Lyngby L 1-2 1424 1478 30.81% 31.79% 37.40% -10.1 0
2021-07-25 @ Nykobing W 2-1 1478 1424 37.40% 31.79% 30.81% +10.1 3
2021-07-27 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1471 1421 45.10% 31.01% 23.89% -1.4 1
2021-07-27 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1421 1471 23.89% 31.01% 45.10% +1.3 1
2021-07-30 Lyngby L 1-2 1389 1488 25.25% 31.24% 43.51% -8.7 1
2021-07-30 @ Jammerbugt W 2-1 1488 1389 43.51% 31.24% 25.25% +8.7 6
2021-07-30 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1418 1422 37.82% 31.77% 30.41% -0.5 1
2021-07-30 @ Hobro D 1-1 1422 1418 30.41% 31.77% 37.82% +0.5 2
2021-07-31 Helsingor L 1-3 1469 1463 39.30% 31.68% 29.02% -20.7 1
2021-07-31 @ Esbjerg W 3-1 1463 1469 29.02% 31.68% 39.30% +20.7 6
2021-07-31 Horsens L 1-4 1429 1450 35.52% 31.85% 32.63% -27.2 0
2021-07-31 @ Fremad Amager W 4-1 1450 1429 32.63% 31.85% 35.52% +27.2 3
2021-08-01 Fredericia D 4-4 1414 1467 30.96% 31.80% 37.25% +0.2 1
2021-08-01 @ Nykobing D 4-4 1467 1414 37.25% 31.80% 30.96% -0.2 4
2021-08-01 Hvidovre L 0-3 1434 1429 39.17% 31.69% 29.14% -34.6 3
2021-08-01 @ HB Koge W 3-0 1429 1434 29.14% 31.69% 39.17% +34.6 4
2021-08-06 Fremad Amager W 3-0 1463 1402 46.56% 30.75% 22.69% +23.2 7
2021-08-06 @ Hvidovre L 0-3 1402 1463 22.69% 30.75% 46.56% -23.2 0
2021-08-06 Helsingor L 0-1 1477 1484 37.47% 31.79% 30.74% -12.2 3
2021-08-06 @ Horsens W 1-0 1484 1477 30.74% 31.79% 37.47% +12.2 9
2021-08-07 Esbjerg W 5-0 1497 1449 44.82% 31.05% 24.13% +39.3 9
2021-08-07 @ Lyngby L 0-5 1449 1497 24.13% 31.05% 44.82% -39.3 1
2021-08-08 Hobro D 1-1 1400 1417 35.93% 31.84% 32.23% -0.2 4
2021-08-08 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1417 1400 32.23% 31.84% 35.93% +0.2 2
2021-08-08 Nykobing D 1-1 1422 1414 39.62% 31.66% 28.73% -0.7 3
2021-08-08 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1414 1422 28.73% 31.66% 39.62% +0.7 2
2021-08-09 Fredericia L 0-3 1380 1466 26.73% 31.45% 41.82% -26.4 1
2021-08-09 @ Jammerbugt W 3-0 1466 1380 41.82% 31.45% 26.73% +26.4 7
2021-08-13 Horsens D 0-0 1409 1465 30.66% 31.78% 37.56% +0.5 2
2021-08-13 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1465 1409 37.56% 31.78% 30.66% -0.5 4
2021-08-13 Hvidovre W 1-0 1493 1487 39.25% 31.68% 29.07% +10.2 10
2021-08-13 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1487 1493 29.07% 31.68% 39.25% -10.2 7
2021-08-13 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1496 1422 48.11% 30.44% 21.45% +13.2 12
2021-08-13 @ Helsingor L 1-3 1422 1496 21.45% 30.44% 48.11% -13.2 3
2021-08-14 HB Koge W 3-1 1414 1399 40.46% 31.59% 27.95% +16.3 5
2021-08-14 @ Nykobing L 1-3 1399 1414 27.95% 31.59% 40.46% -16.3 4
2021-08-14 Jammerbugt L 1-2 1379 1354 41.83% 31.45% 26.72% -12.5 0
2021-08-14 @ Fremad Amager W 2-1 1354 1379 26.72% 31.45% 41.83% +12.5 4
2021-08-14 Lyngby L 1-4 1418 1536 23.17% 30.86% 45.97% -19.9 2
2021-08-14 @ Hobro W 4-1 1536 1418 45.97% 30.86% 23.17% +19.9 12
2021-08-17 Esbjerg W 1-0 1503 1410 50.40% 29.89% 19.70% +7.5 13
2021-08-17 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1410 1503 19.70% 29.89% 50.40% -7.5 2
2021-08-17 Nykobing W 1-0 1476 1431 44.55% 31.09% 24.36% +9.0 10
2021-08-17 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1431 1476 24.36% 31.09% 44.55% -9.0 5
2021-08-18 Fremad Amager W 4-2 1556 1366 60.85% 26.15% 13.00% +7.3 15
2021-08-18 @ Lyngby L 2-4 1366 1556 13.00% 26.15% 60.85% -7.4 0
2021-08-18 Hobro D 1-1 1366 1398 33.95% 31.86% 34.19% +0.0 5
2021-08-18 @ Jammerbugt D 1-1 1398 1366 34.19% 31.86% 33.95% -0.0 3
2021-08-19 Horsens L 1-2 1409 1464 30.61% 31.78% 37.61% -10.0 3
2021-08-19 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1464 1409 37.61% 31.78% 30.61% +10.0 7
2021-08-20 Hvidovre L 1-2 1402 1485 27.12% 31.50% 41.38% -9.2 2
2021-08-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1485 1402 41.38% 31.50% 27.12% +9.2 13
2021-08-21 HB Koge W 2-0 1359 1383 34.97% 31.86% 33.17% +21.2 3
2021-08-21 @ Fremad Amager L 0-2 1383 1359 33.17% 31.86% 34.97% -21.2 4
2021-08-21 Lyngby D 3-3 1509 1563 30.83% 31.79% 37.38% +0.2 13
2021-08-21 @ Helsingor D 3-3 1563 1509 37.38% 31.79% 30.83% -0.2 16
2021-08-22 Fredericia D 1-1 1399 1511 23.83% 30.99% 45.17% +1.4 4
2021-08-22 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1511 1399 45.17% 30.99% 23.83% -1.4 14
2021-08-22 Jammerbugt W 2-1 1474 1366 52.14% 29.42% 18.44% +6.7 10
2021-08-22 @ Horsens L 1-2 1366 1474 18.44% 29.42% 52.14% -6.7 5
2021-08-23 Nykobing L 1-2 1398 1422 35.02% 31.86% 33.12% -11.0 3
2021-08-23 @ Hobro W 2-1 1422 1398 33.12% 31.86% 35.02% +11.0 8
2021-08-25 Helsingor L 0-1 1362 1509 20.34% 30.11% 49.55% -7.8 4
2021-08-25 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1509 1362 49.55% 30.11% 20.34% +7.8 16
2021-08-27 Esbjerg D 1-1 1433 1393 43.74% 31.21% 25.04% -1.2 9
2021-08-27 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1393 1433 25.04% 31.21% 43.74% +1.2 3
2021-08-27 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1509 1380 54.52% 28.67% 16.81% +6.1 17
2021-08-27 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1380 1509 16.81% 28.67% 54.52% -6.1 3
2021-08-28 Helsingor L 0-6 1359 1517 19.43% 29.80% 50.78% -39.0 5
2021-08-28 @ Jammerbugt W 6-0 1517 1359 50.78% 29.80% 19.43% +39.0 19
2021-08-29 Horsens L 1-2 1563 1481 49.06% 30.22% 20.71% -14.2 16
2021-08-29 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1481 1563 20.71% 30.22% 49.06% +14.2 13
2021-08-29 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1354 1400 31.96% 31.83% 36.20% +0.2 5
2021-08-29 @ HB Koge D 2-2 1400 1354 36.20% 31.83% 31.96% -0.2 5
2021-08-30 Hobro D 2-2 1495 1387 52.13% 29.42% 18.45% -1.7 14
2021-08-30 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1387 1495 18.45% 29.42% 52.13% +1.7 4
2021-09-10 Hobro W 2-1 1394 1388 39.24% 31.68% 29.07% +9.7 6
2021-09-10 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1388 1394 29.07% 31.68% 39.24% -9.7 4
2021-09-10 Nykobing W 3-1 1374 1432 30.34% 31.77% 37.89% +20.1 6
2021-09-10 @ Fremad Amager L 1-3 1432 1374 37.89% 31.77% 30.34% -20.2 9
2021-09-12 Fredericia L 1-3 1495 1515 35.56% 31.85% 32.59% -19.3 13
2021-09-12 @ Horsens W 3-1 1515 1495 32.59% 31.85% 35.56% +19.3 20
2021-09-12 HB Koge W 4-3 1320 1354 33.59% 31.86% 34.54% +10.1 8
2021-09-12 @ Jammerbugt L 3-4 1354 1320 34.54% 31.86% 33.59% -10.1 5
2021-09-12 Hvidovre D 2-2 1556 1493 46.76% 30.71% 22.53% -1.2 20
2021-09-12 @ Helsingor D 2-2 1493 1556 22.53% 30.71% 46.76% +1.2 15
2021-09-17 HB Koge D 1-1 1549 1344 62.30% 25.47% 12.23% -3.5 17
2021-09-17 @ Lyngby D 1-1 1344 1549 12.23% 25.47% 62.30% +3.5 6
2021-09-17 Helsingor L 2-4 1535 1555 35.55% 31.85% 32.60% -17.2 20
2021-09-17 @ Fredericia W 4-2 1555 1535 32.60% 31.85% 35.55% +17.2 23
2021-09-18 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1404 1394 39.79% 31.64% 28.57% +9.5 9
2021-09-18 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1394 1404 28.57% 31.64% 39.79% -9.5 6
2021-09-18 Horsens L 0-3 1379 1476 25.47% 31.28% 43.26% -25.4 4
2021-09-18 @ Hobro W 3-0 1476 1379 43.26% 31.28% 25.47% +25.4 16
2021-09-19 Jammerbugt W 4-1 1411 1331 48.93% 30.25% 20.82% +18.2 12
2021-09-19 @ Nykobing L 1-4 1331 1411 20.82% 30.25% 48.93% -18.2 8
2021-09-19 Vendsyssel W 3-2 1494 1400 50.55% 29.86% 19.60% +6.7 18
2021-09-19 @ Hvidovre L 2-3 1400 1494 19.60% 29.86% 50.55% -6.7 5
2021-09-24 Fredericia W 3-0 1348 1517 18.44% 29.41% 52.15% +43.3 9
2021-09-24 @ HB Koge L 0-3 1517 1348 52.15% 29.41% 18.44% -43.3 20
2021-09-24 Hobro D 2-2 1572 1353 63.71% 24.77% 11.52% -2.7 24
2021-09-24 @ Helsingor D 2-2 1353 1572 11.52% 24.77% 63.71% +2.7 5
2021-09-25 Hvidovre W 3-1 1545 1501 44.37% 31.12% 24.51% +14.7 20
2021-09-25 @ Lyngby L 1-3 1501 1545 24.51% 31.12% 44.37% -14.7 18
2021-09-25 Vendsyssel W 1-0 1384 1393 37.22% 31.80% 30.98% +10.7 9
2021-09-25 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1393 1384 30.98% 31.80% 37.22% -10.7 5
2021-09-26 Esbjerg W 1-0 1312 1414 25.01% 31.21% 43.78% +13.7 11
2021-09-26 @ Jammerbugt L 0-1 1414 1312 43.78% 31.21% 25.01% -13.7 9
2021-09-26 Nykobing W 2-1 1501 1430 47.81% 30.50% 21.69% +7.7 19
2021-09-26 @ Horsens L 1-2 1430 1501 21.69% 30.50% 47.81% -7.7 12
2021-10-01 Fremad Amager W 5-0 1356 1395 32.85% 31.85% 35.30% +51.7 8
2021-10-01 @ Hobro L 0-5 1395 1356 35.30% 31.85% 32.85% -51.7 9
2021-10-01 Lyngby L 0-2 1474 1560 26.79% 31.46% 41.75% -18.2 20
2021-10-01 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1560 1474 41.75% 31.46% 26.79% +18.2 23
2021-10-02 Horsens D 0-0 1486 1509 35.18% 31.86% 32.96% -0.1 19
2021-10-02 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1509 1486 32.96% 31.86% 35.18% +0.1 20
2021-10-03 Helsingor W 3-0 1422 1569 20.32% 30.10% 49.58% +41.5 15
2021-10-03 @ Nykobing L 0-3 1569 1422 49.58% 30.10% 20.32% -41.5 24
2021-10-03 Jammerbugt W 2-1 1382 1326 45.89% 30.87% 23.24% +8.2 8
2021-10-03 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1326 1382 23.24% 30.87% 45.89% -8.1 11
2021-10-04 HB Koge W 2-0 1400 1391 39.61% 31.66% 28.73% +19.2 12
2021-10-04 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1391 1400 28.73% 31.66% 39.61% -19.2 9
2021-10-14 Esbjerg W 3-0 1528 1419 52.25% 29.38% 18.37% +19.4 27
2021-10-14 @ Helsingor L 0-3 1419 1528 18.37% 29.38% 52.25% -19.4 12
2021-10-15 Fredericia L 0-1 1343 1456 23.78% 30.98% 45.23% -8.8 9
2021-10-15 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1456 1343 45.23% 30.98% 23.78% +8.8 23
2021-10-16 Hvidovre L 0-2 1318 1486 18.56% 29.46% 51.98% -13.5 11
2021-10-16 @ Jammerbugt W 2-0 1486 1318 51.98% 29.46% 18.56% +13.5 22
2021-10-16 Nykobing W 1-0 1372 1463 26.12% 31.37% 42.50% +13.4 12
2021-10-16 @ HB Koge L 0-1 1463 1372 42.50% 31.37% 26.12% -13.4 15
2021-10-17 Hobro D 1-1 1578 1408 58.91% 27.00% 14.09% -3.1 24
2021-10-17 @ Lyngby D 1-1 1408 1578 14.09% 27.00% 58.91% +3.1 9
2021-10-17 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1509 1390 53.35% 29.05% 17.60% -2.4 21
2021-10-17 @ Horsens D 1-1 1390 1509 17.60% 29.05% 53.35% +2.4 9
2021-10-22 HB Koge W 1-0 1499 1385 52.82% 29.21% 17.97% +6.9 25
2021-10-22 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1385 1499 17.97% 29.21% 52.82% -6.9 12
2021-10-22 Jammerbugt L 0-1 1411 1304 51.94% 29.47% 18.58% -15.8 9
2021-10-22 @ Hobro W 1-0 1304 1411 18.58% 29.47% 51.94% +15.8 14
2021-10-23 Fredericia L 1-2 1400 1465 29.36% 31.71% 38.94% -9.7 12
2021-10-23 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1465 1400 38.94% 31.71% 29.36% +9.7 26
2021-10-23 Lyngby L 0-1 1507 1575 28.96% 31.68% 39.37% -10.2 21
2021-10-23 @ Horsens W 1-0 1575 1507 39.37% 31.68% 28.96% +10.2 27
2021-10-24 Fremad Amager L 0-3 1450 1335 52.97% 29.17% 17.86% -43.8 15
2021-10-24 @ Nykobing W 3-0 1335 1450 17.86% 29.17% 52.97% +43.8 12
2021-10-24 Helsingor D 2-2 1393 1547 19.71% 29.89% 50.40% +1.5 10
2021-10-24 @ Vendsyssel D 2-2 1547 1393 50.40% 29.89% 19.71% -1.5 28
2021-10-29 Esbjerg L 2-6 1395 1390 39.13% 31.69% 29.18% -32.0 9
2021-10-29 @ Hobro W 6-2 1390 1395 29.18% 31.69% 39.13% +32.0 15
2021-10-29 Helsingor D 0-0 1585 1546 43.73% 31.21% 25.06% -1.3 28
2021-10-29 @ Lyngby D 0-0 1546 1585 25.06% 31.21% 43.73% +1.3 29
2021-10-30 Nykobing L 0-5 1320 1406 26.77% 31.46% 41.77% -42.5 14
2021-10-30 @ Jammerbugt W 5-0 1406 1320 41.77% 31.46% 26.77% +42.5 18
2021-10-31 Hvidovre L 1-4 1378 1506 22.19% 30.63% 47.18% -19.2 12
2021-10-31 @ Fremad Amager W 4-1 1506 1378 47.18% 30.63% 22.19% +19.2 28
2021-10-31 Vendsyssel W 4-0 1474 1394 48.84% 30.27% 20.88% +28.3 29
2021-10-31 @ Fredericia L 0-4 1394 1474 20.88% 30.27% 48.84% -28.3 10
2021-11-01 Horsens W 2-0 1378 1496 23.19% 30.86% 45.95% +26.9 15
2021-11-01 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1496 1378 45.95% 30.86% 23.19% -26.9 21
2021-11-03 Lyngby D 1-1 1366 1584 14.94% 27.59% 57.47% +2.9 11
2021-11-03 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1584 1366 57.47% 27.59% 14.94% -2.9 29
2021-11-05 Jammerbugt D 2-2 1422 1278 56.15% 28.09% 15.76% -2.0 16
2021-11-05 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1278 1422 15.76% 28.09% 56.15% +2.0 15
2021-11-06 Hobro W 3-1 1449 1363 49.51% 30.12% 20.37% +12.7 21
2021-11-06 @ Nykobing L 1-3 1363 1449 20.37% 30.12% 49.51% -12.7 9
2021-11-06 Lyngby W 1-0 1526 1581 30.64% 31.78% 37.58% +12.3 31
2021-11-06 @ Hvidovre L 0-1 1581 1526 37.58% 31.78% 30.64% -12.3 29
2021-11-07 Fremad Amager W 6-1 1470 1359 52.41% 29.34% 18.26% +25.7 24
2021-11-07 @ Horsens L 1-6 1359 1470 18.26% 29.34% 52.41% -25.7 12
2021-11-07 HB Koge W 4-1 1369 1405 33.24% 31.86% 34.90% +26.9 14
2021-11-07 @ Vendsyssel L 1-4 1405 1369 34.90% 31.86% 33.24% -26.9 15
2021-11-08 Fredericia W 4-1 1547 1503 44.37% 31.12% 24.51% +20.8 32
2021-11-08 @ Helsingor L 1-4 1503 1547 24.51% 31.12% 44.37% -20.8 29
2021-11-19 Esbjerg W 3-0 1378 1420 32.57% 31.85% 35.58% +32.3 18
2021-11-19 @ HB Koge L 0-3 1420 1378 35.58% 31.85% 32.57% -32.3 16
2021-11-19 Hvidovre W 2-1 1350 1538 17.04% 28.78% 54.18% +15.4 12
2021-11-19 @ Hobro L 1-2 1538 1350 54.18% 28.78% 17.04% -15.4 31
2021-11-20 Helsingor L 1-4 1334 1568 13.93% 26.88% 59.18% -12.5 12
2021-11-20 @ Fremad Amager W 4-1 1568 1334 59.18% 26.88% 13.93% +12.5 35
2021-11-20 Horsens L 1-4 1280 1495 15.09% 27.68% 57.23% -13.6 15
2021-11-20 @ Jammerbugt W 4-1 1495 1280 57.23% 27.68% 15.09% +13.6 27
2021-11-21 Nykobing W 3-2 1482 1461 41.23% 31.51% 27.26% +8.7 32
2021-11-21 @ Fredericia L 2-3 1461 1482 27.26% 31.51% 41.23% -8.7 21
2021-11-21 Vendsyssel W 1-0 1569 1396 59.17% 26.89% 13.94% +5.4 32
2021-11-21 @ Lyngby L 0-1 1396 1569 13.94% 26.89% 59.17% -5.4 14
2021-11-26 HB Koge D 1-1 1580 1411 58.83% 27.03% 14.13% -3.1 36
2021-11-26 @ Helsingor D 1-1 1411 1580 14.13% 27.03% 58.83% +3.1 19
2021-11-26 Jammerbugt W 3-0 1574 1266 71.63% 20.35% 8.02% +7.8 35
2021-11-26 @ Lyngby L 0-3 1266 1574 8.02% 20.35% 71.63% -7.8 15
2021-11-27 Fredericia W 5-1 1522 1491 42.73% 31.35% 25.93% +28.1 34
2021-11-27 @ Hvidovre L 1-5 1491 1522 25.93% 31.35% 42.73% -28.1 32
2021-11-27 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1390 1321 47.53% 30.56% 21.91% +15.5 17
2021-11-27 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1321 1390 21.91% 30.56% 47.53% -15.5 12
2021-11-28 Hobro W 2-1 1509 1366 56.04% 28.13% 15.83% +5.8 30
2021-11-28 @ Horsens L 1-2 1366 1509 15.83% 28.13% 56.04% -5.8 12
2021-11-28 Nykobing W 3-0 1387 1453 29.35% 31.70% 38.95% +34.5 19
2021-11-28 @ Esbjerg L 0-3 1453 1387 38.95% 31.70% 29.35% -34.5 21
2021-12-02 Esbjerg W 2-0 1551 1422 54.47% 28.69% 16.85% +12.3 37
2021-12-02 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1422 1551 16.85% 28.69% 54.47% -12.3 19
2021-12-03 Helsingor L 1-2 1360 1577 14.97% 27.61% 57.42% -5.5 12
2021-12-03 @ Hobro W 2-1 1577 1360 57.42% 27.61% 14.97% +5.5 39
2021-12-03 Horsens L 0-2 1463 1515 31.09% 31.80% 37.11% -20.3 32
2021-12-03 @ Fredericia W 2-0 1515 1463 37.11% 31.80% 31.09% +20.3 33
2021-12-04 Lyngby D 3-3 1414 1582 18.55% 29.46% 51.99% +1.4 20
2021-12-04 @ HB Koge D 3-3 1582 1414 51.99% 29.46% 18.55% -1.4 36
2021-12-04 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1418 1406 40.10% 31.62% 28.29% -0.7 22
2021-12-04 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1406 1418 28.29% 31.62% 40.10% +0.7 18
2022-02-19 Fremad Amager D 1-1 1258 1305 31.75% 31.83% 36.42% +0.3 16
2022-02-19 @ Jammerbugt D 1-1 1305 1258 36.42% 31.83% 31.75% -0.3 13
2022-02-25 Esbjerg W 4-2 1305 1410 24.66% 31.15% 44.19% +20.2 16
2022-02-25 @ Fremad Amager L 2-4 1410 1305 44.19% 31.15% 24.66% -20.2 19
2022-02-25 Nykobing W 2-0 1583 1417 58.40% 27.21% 14.39% +10.6 42
2022-02-25 @ Helsingor L 0-2 1417 1583 14.39% 27.21% 58.40% -10.5 22
2022-02-26 Fredericia D 1-1 1581 1442 55.51% 28.32% 16.16% -2.7 37
2022-02-26 @ Lyngby D 1-1 1442 1581 16.16% 28.32% 55.51% +2.7 33
2022-02-26 Hobro L 0-3 1407 1354 45.38% 30.96% 23.66% -38.7 18
2022-02-26 @ Vendsyssel W 3-0 1354 1407 23.66% 30.96% 45.38% +38.7 15
2022-02-27 Hvidovre W 2-1 1535 1563 34.46% 31.86% 33.67% +10.7 36
2022-02-27 @ Horsens L 1-2 1563 1535 33.67% 31.86% 34.46% -10.7 37
2022-02-27 Jammerbugt W 2-1 1415 1259 57.48% 27.58% 14.93% +5.5 23
2022-02-27 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1259 1415 14.93% 27.58% 57.48% -5.5 16
2022-03-04 HB Koge W 1-0 1393 1421 34.51% 31.86% 33.62% +11.3 18
2022-03-04 @ Hobro L 0-1 1421 1393 33.62% 31.86% 34.51% -11.3 23
2022-03-04 Horsens W 1-0 1593 1546 44.81% 31.05% 24.14% +8.9 45
2022-03-04 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1546 1593 24.14% 31.05% 44.81% -8.9 36
2022-03-04 Lyngby L 0-3 1325 1578 12.92% 26.08% 61.01% -13.7 16
2022-03-04 @ Fremad Amager W 3-0 1578 1325 61.01% 26.08% 12.92% +13.7 40
2022-03-05 Hvidovre L 0-1 1407 1552 20.53% 30.16% 49.31% -7.8 22
2022-03-05 @ Nykobing W 1-0 1552 1407 49.31% 30.16% 20.53% +7.8 40
2022-03-06 Esbjerg W 1-0 1368 1389 35.40% 31.85% 32.75% +11.1 21
2022-03-06 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1389 1368 32.75% 31.85% 35.40% -11.1 19
2022-03-06 Jammerbugt W 3-0 1445 1253 61.08% 26.04% 12.88% +13.6 36
2022-03-06 @ Fredericia L 0-3 1253 1445 12.88% 26.04% 61.08% -13.6 16
2022-03-11 Fredericia W 3-1 1405 1459 30.81% 31.79% 37.40% +20.0 21
2022-03-11 @ Hobro L 1-3 1459 1405 37.40% 31.79% 30.81% -20.0 36
2022-03-11 Nykobing L 1-2 1592 1399 61.14% 26.01% 12.84% -16.9 40
2022-03-11 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1399 1592 12.84% 26.01% 61.14% +16.9 25
2022-03-12 Helsingor L 0-4 1560 1602 32.42% 31.85% 35.74% -39.6 40
2022-03-12 @ Hvidovre W 4-0 1602 1560 35.74% 31.85% 32.42% +39.6 48
2022-03-12 Vendsyssel L 0-1 1240 1379 21.06% 30.32% 48.62% -8.0 16
2022-03-12 @ Jammerbugt W 1-0 1379 1240 48.62% 30.32% 21.06% +8.0 24
2022-03-13 Esbjerg D 0-0 1537 1378 57.68% 27.50% 14.81% -3.3 37
2022-03-13 @ Horsens D 0-0 1378 1537 14.81% 27.50% 57.68% +3.3 20
2022-03-13 Fremad Amager D 0-0 1409 1312 50.94% 29.75% 19.31% -2.3 24
2022-03-13 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1312 1409 19.31% 29.75% 50.94% +2.3 17
2022-03-18 HB Koge D 2-2 1439 1407 42.70% 31.35% 25.95% -0.8 37
2022-03-18 @ Fredericia D 2-2 1407 1439 25.95% 31.35% 42.70% +0.8 25
2022-03-18 Hobro D 1-1 1314 1424 24.00% 31.03% 44.97% +1.3 18
2022-03-18 @ Fremad Amager D 1-1 1424 1314 44.97% 31.03% 24.00% -1.3 22
2022-03-18 Horsens L 1-4 1416 1533 23.25% 30.87% 45.87% -20.0 25
2022-03-18 @ Nykobing W 4-1 1533 1416 45.87% 30.87% 23.25% +20.0 40
2022-03-18 Hvidovre L 0-1 1387 1520 21.66% 30.49% 47.85% -8.2 24
2022-03-18 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1520 1387 47.85% 30.49% 21.66% +8.2 43
2022-03-18 Jammerbugt W 3-0 1642 1232 79.37% 15.40% 5.23% +4.6 51
2022-03-18 @ Helsingor L 0-3 1232 1642 5.23% 15.40% 79.37% -4.6 16
2022-03-18 Lyngby L 0-3 1381 1575 16.62% 28.57% 54.82% -17.7 20
2022-03-18 @ Esbjerg W 3-0 1575 1381 54.82% 28.57% 16.62% +17.7 43

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2022-03-31 Hobro D 2-2 1364 1423 30.11% 31.75% 38.13% +0.4 1
2022-03-31 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1423 1364 38.13% 31.75% 30.11% -0.4 1
2022-04-01 Hvidovre W 2-1 1438 1529 26.22% 31.39% 42.39% +12.6 3
2022-04-01 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1529 1438 42.39% 31.39% 26.22% -12.6 0
2022-04-01 Jammerbugt W 4-1 1315 1227 49.85% 30.03% 20.11% +17.7 3
2022-04-01 @ Fremad Amager L 1-4 1227 1315 20.11% 30.03% 49.85% -17.7 0
2022-04-02 Nykobing W 5-0 1592 1396 61.52% 25.84% 12.64% +21.5 3
2022-04-02 @ Lyngby L 0-5 1396 1592 12.64% 25.84% 61.52% -21.5 0
2022-04-02 Vendsyssel W 3-0 1408 1379 42.34% 31.39% 26.26% +26.0 3
2022-04-02 @ HB Koge L 0-3 1379 1408 26.26% 31.39% 42.34% -26.0 0
2022-04-03 Horsens L 0-1 1646 1553 50.40% 29.89% 19.71% -15.4 0
2022-04-03 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1553 1646 19.71% 29.89% 50.40% +15.4 3
2022-04-07 Lyngby D 0-0 1516 1614 25.38% 31.26% 43.36% +1.3 1
2022-04-07 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1614 1516 43.36% 31.26% 25.38% -1.3 4
2022-04-08 HB Koge D 1-1 1423 1434 36.86% 31.81% 31.33% -0.3 2
2022-04-08 @ Hobro D 1-1 1434 1423 31.33% 31.81% 36.86% +0.3 4
2022-04-09 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1353 1333 41.12% 31.53% 27.36% +18.5 3
2022-04-09 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1333 1353 27.36% 31.53% 41.12% -18.5 3
2022-04-09 Helsingor W 4-3 1374 1631 12.69% 25.89% 61.42% +15.7 3
2022-04-09 @ Nykobing L 3-4 1631 1374 61.42% 25.89% 12.69% -15.7 0
2022-04-10 Esbjerg W 2-1 1209 1364 19.66% 29.88% 50.46% +14.5 3
2022-04-10 @ Jammerbugt L 1-2 1364 1209 50.46% 29.88% 19.66% -14.5 1
2022-04-10 Fredericia D 0-0 1569 1451 53.30% 29.06% 17.63% -2.7 4
2022-04-10 @ Horsens D 0-0 1451 1569 17.63% 29.06% 53.30% +2.7 4
2022-04-15 Fremad Amager D 1-1 1434 1315 53.45% 29.02% 17.53% -2.4 5
2022-04-15 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1315 1434 17.53% 29.02% 53.45% +2.4 4
2022-04-16 Horsens L 1-2 1613 1566 44.64% 31.08% 24.28% -13.2 4
2022-04-16 @ Lyngby W 2-1 1566 1613 24.28% 31.08% 44.64% +13.2 7
2022-04-17 Esbjerg D 0-0 1371 1350 41.38% 31.50% 27.12% -1.0 4
2022-04-17 @ Vendsyssel D 0-0 1350 1371 27.12% 31.50% 41.38% +1.0 2
2022-04-17 Helsingor W 4-0 1453 1615 19.04% 29.65% 51.31% +55.8 7
2022-04-17 @ Fredericia L 0-4 1615 1453 51.31% 29.65% 19.04% -55.8 0
2022-04-17 Jammerbugt W 1-0 1422 1224 61.76% 25.73% 12.51% +4.8 5
2022-04-17 @ Hobro L 0-1 1224 1422 12.51% 25.73% 61.76% -4.8 3
2022-04-18 Nykobing W 2-0 1517 1390 54.28% 28.75% 16.97% +12.4 4
2022-04-18 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1390 1517 16.97% 28.75% 54.28% -12.4 3
2022-04-21 Hobro D 0-0 1317 1427 24.02% 31.03% 44.95% +1.5 5
2022-04-21 @ Fremad Amager D 0-0 1427 1317 44.95% 31.03% 24.02% -1.5 6
2022-04-22 Hvidovre L 1-2 1560 1530 42.50% 31.37% 26.13% -12.7 0
2022-04-22 @ Helsingor W 2-1 1530 1560 26.13% 31.37% 42.50% +12.7 7
2022-04-22 Lyngby L 1-3 1509 1599 26.24% 31.39% 42.37% -15.5 7
2022-04-22 @ Fredericia W 3-1 1599 1509 42.37% 31.39% 26.24% +15.5 7
2022-04-23 HB Koge D 0-0 1351 1432 27.35% 31.53% 41.12% +0.9 3
2022-04-23 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1432 1351 41.12% 31.53% 27.35% -1.0 6
2022-04-23 Vendsyssel W 2-1 1219 1370 19.97% 29.98% 50.05% +14.4 6
2022-04-23 @ Jammerbugt L 1-2 1370 1219 50.05% 29.98% 19.97% -14.4 4
2022-04-24 Nykobing W 3-2 1579 1378 62.03% 25.60% 12.37% +4.3 10
2022-04-24 @ Horsens L 2-3 1378 1579 12.37% 25.60% 62.03% -4.3 3
2022-04-29 Esbjerg W 2-0 1319 1352 33.73% 31.86% 34.41% +21.7 8
2022-04-29 @ Fremad Amager L 0-2 1352 1319 34.41% 31.86% 33.73% -21.7 3
2022-04-29 Horsens L 0-1 1542 1584 32.56% 31.85% 35.59% -11.1 7
2022-04-29 @ Hvidovre W 1-0 1584 1542 35.59% 31.85% 32.56% +11.1 13
2022-04-30 Fredericia L 2-3 1374 1493 22.99% 30.82% 46.19% -7.7 3
2022-04-30 @ Nykobing W 3-2 1493 1374 46.19% 30.82% 22.99% +7.7 10
2022-04-30 Helsingor W 2-1 1615 1547 47.36% 30.59% 22.05% +7.8 10
2022-04-30 @ Lyngby L 1-2 1547 1615 22.05% 30.59% 47.36% -7.8 0
2022-04-30 Hobro L 0-1 1356 1426 28.76% 31.66% 39.58% -10.2 4
2022-04-30 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1426 1356 39.58% 31.66% 28.76% +10.2 9
2022-05-01 HB Koge L 0-3 1233 1431 16.31% 28.40% 55.29% -17.4 6
2022-05-01 @ Jammerbugt W 3-0 1431 1233 55.29% 28.40% 16.31% +17.4 9
2022-05-06 Fredericia W 2-1 1539 1501 43.54% 31.24% 25.22% +8.7 3
2022-05-06 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1501 1539 25.22% 31.24% 43.54% -8.7 10
2022-05-06 Lyngby W 2-1 1595 1623 34.44% 31.86% 33.70% +10.7 16
2022-05-06 @ Horsens L 1-2 1623 1595 33.70% 31.86% 34.44% -10.7 10
2022-05-07 Esbjerg W 2-1 1448 1330 53.31% 29.06% 17.63% +6.4 12
2022-05-07 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1330 1448 17.63% 29.06% 53.31% -6.4 3
2022-05-07 Fremad Amager D 1-1 1436 1340 50.70% 29.81% 19.48% -2.1 10
2022-05-07 @ Hobro D 1-1 1340 1436 19.48% 29.81% 50.70% +2.1 9
2022-05-07 Hvidovre W 2-1 1366 1531 18.78% 29.55% 51.67% +14.8 6
2022-05-07 @ Nykobing L 1-2 1531 1366 51.67% 29.55% 18.78% -14.8 7
2022-05-08 Jammerbugt W 4-1 1346 1216 54.60% 28.64% 16.76% +15.0 7
2022-05-08 @ Vendsyssel L 1-4 1216 1346 16.76% 28.64% 54.60% -15.0 6
2022-05-12 Hvidovre W 1-0 1612 1516 50.71% 29.81% 19.48% +7.5 13
2022-05-12 @ Lyngby L 0-1 1516 1612 19.48% 29.81% 50.71% -7.5 7
2022-05-13 HB Koge W 1-0 1342 1455 23.80% 30.99% 45.21% +14.1 12
2022-05-13 @ Fremad Amager L 0-1 1455 1342 45.21% 30.99% 23.80% -14.1 12
2022-05-13 Helsingor D 3-3 1605 1548 46.05% 30.84% 23.11% -0.9 17
2022-05-13 @ Horsens D 3-3 1548 1605 23.11% 30.84% 46.05% +0.9 4
2022-05-13 Nykobing W 5-1 1492 1381 52.57% 29.29% 18.14% +20.9 13
2022-05-13 @ Fredericia L 1-5 1381 1492 18.14% 29.29% 52.57% -20.9 6
2022-05-14 Hobro L 2-3 1201 1434 14.02% 26.95% 59.04% -4.9 6
2022-05-14 @ Jammerbugt W 3-2 1434 1201 59.04% 26.95% 14.02% +4.9 13
2022-05-15 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1323 1361 33.11% 31.86% 35.03% +0.1 4
2022-05-15 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1361 1323 35.03% 31.86% 33.11% -0.1 8
2022-05-18 Fredericia W 3-1 1509 1513 37.79% 31.77% 30.43% +17.3 10
2022-05-18 @ Hvidovre L 1-3 1513 1509 30.43% 31.77% 37.79% -17.3 13
2022-05-18 Fremad Amager L 2-3 1324 1356 33.75% 31.86% 34.39% -10.2 4
2022-05-18 @ Esbjerg W 3-2 1356 1324 34.39% 31.86% 33.75% +10.2 15
2022-05-18 Horsens L 0-1 1360 1604 13.34% 26.43% 60.23% -5.2 6
2022-05-18 @ Nykobing W 1-0 1604 1360 60.23% 26.43% 13.34% +5.2 20
2022-05-18 Lyngby L 1-2 1549 1620 28.64% 31.65% 39.71% -9.6 4
2022-05-18 @ Helsingor W 2-1 1620 1549 39.71% 31.65% 28.64% +9.6 16
2022-05-19 Jammerbugt W 2-0 1441 1196 66.10% 23.53% 10.38% +7.4 15
2022-05-19 @ HB Koge L 0-2 1196 1441 10.38% 23.53% 66.10% -7.4 6
2022-05-19 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1439 1361 48.59% 30.33% 21.08% +15.0 16
2022-05-19 @ Hobro L 0-2 1361 1439 21.08% 30.33% 48.59% -15.0 8
2022-05-22 Esbjerg L 1-2 1454 1313 55.76% 28.24% 16.01% -15.7 16
2022-05-22 @ Hobro W 2-1 1313 1454 16.01% 28.24% 55.76% +15.7 7
2022-05-22 Fremad Amager W 3-2 1189 1367 17.76% 29.12% 53.11% +14.3 9
2022-05-22 @ Jammerbugt L 2-3 1367 1189 53.11% 29.12% 17.76% -14.3 15
2022-05-22 HB Koge D 1-1 1346 1448 24.90% 31.19% 43.91% +1.2 9
2022-05-22 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1448 1346 43.91% 31.19% 24.90% -1.2 16
2022-05-23 Helsingor W 2-0 1526 1539 36.59% 31.82% 31.59% +20.5 13
2022-05-23 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1539 1526 31.59% 31.82% 36.59% -20.5 4
2022-05-23 Horsens L 0-4 1496 1610 23.66% 30.96% 45.38% -31.4 13
2022-05-23 @ Fredericia W 4-0 1610 1496 45.38% 30.96% 23.66% +31.4 23
2022-05-23 Lyngby D 1-1 1355 1629 11.79% 25.05% 63.15% +3.6 7
2022-05-23 @ Nykobing D 1-1 1629 1355 63.15% 25.05% 11.79% -3.6 17
2022-05-28 Hobro D 4-4 1447 1438 39.60% 31.66% 28.74% -0.4 17
2022-05-28 @ HB Koge D 4-4 1438 1447 28.74% 31.66% 39.60% +0.4 17
2022-05-28 Jammerbugt D 2-2 1329 1203 54.17% 28.78% 17.04% -1.9 8
2022-05-28 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1203 1329 17.04% 28.78% 54.17% +1.9 10
2022-05-28 Vendsyssel L 1-4 1352 1347 39.16% 31.69% 29.15% -29.2 15
2022-05-28 @ Fremad Amager W 4-1 1347 1352 29.15% 31.69% 39.16% +29.2 12
2022-05-29 Fredericia W 1-0 1625 1465 57.92% 27.41% 14.67% +5.7 20
2022-05-29 @ Lyngby L 0-1 1465 1625 14.67% 27.41% 57.92% -5.7 13
2022-05-29 Hvidovre D 1-1 1641 1547 50.54% 29.86% 19.60% -2.0 24
2022-05-29 @ Horsens D 1-1 1547 1641 19.60% 29.86% 50.54% +2.0 14
2022-05-29 Nykobing L 2-3 1519 1358 57.89% 27.42% 14.69% -15.4 4
2022-05-29 @ Helsingor W 3-2 1358 1519 14.69% 27.42% 57.89% +15.4 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-04-09 12.69% @ Nykobing 1374 4 Helsingor 1631 3
2 2022-03-11 12.84% Nykobing 1399 2 @ Lyngby 1592 1
3 2022-05-29 14.69% Nykobing 1358 3 @ Helsingor 1519 2
4 2022-05-22 16.01% Esbjerg 1313 2 @ Hobro 1454 1
5 2021-11-19 17.04% @ Hobro 1350 2 Hvidovre 1538 1
6 2022-05-22 17.76% @ Jammerbugt 1189 3 Fremad Amager 1367 2
7 2021-10-24 17.86% Fremad Amager 1335 3 @ Nykobing 1450 0
8 2021-09-24 18.44% @ HB Koge 1348 3 Fredericia 1517 0
9 2021-10-22 18.58% Jammerbugt 1304 1 @ Hobro 1411 0
10 2022-05-07 18.78% @ Nykobing 1366 2 Hvidovre 1531 1
11 2022-04-17 19.04% @ Fredericia 1453 4 Helsingor 1615 0
12 2022-04-10 19.66% @ Jammerbugt 1209 2 Esbjerg 1364 1
13 2022-04-03 19.71% Horsens 1553 1 @ Helsingor 1646 0
14 2022-04-23 19.97% @ Jammerbugt 1219 2 Vendsyssel 1370 1
15 2021-10-03 20.32% @ Nykobing 1422 3 Helsingor 1569 0
16 2021-08-29 20.71% Horsens 1481 2 @ Lyngby 1563 1
17 2021-07-23 21.77% HB Koge 1407 2 @ Horsens 1477 0
18 2021-11-01 23.19% @ HB Koge 1378 2 Horsens 1496 0
19 2022-02-26 23.66% Hobro 1354 3 @ Vendsyssel 1407 0
20 2022-05-13 23.80% @ Fremad Amager 1342 1 HB Koge 1455 0
21 2022-04-16 24.28% Horsens 1566 2 @ Lyngby 1613 1
22 2022-02-25 24.66% @ Fremad Amager 1305 4 Esbjerg 1410 2
23 2021-09-26 25.01% @ Jammerbugt 1312 1 Esbjerg 1414 0
24 2021-10-16 26.12% @ HB Koge 1372 1 Nykobing 1463 0
25 2022-04-22 26.13% Hvidovre 1530 2 @ Helsingor 1560 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-04-17 55.78 @ Fredericia 4 1453 19.04% Helsingor 0 1615 51.31% 29.65%
2 2021-10-01 51.74 @ Hobro 5 1356 32.85% Fremad Amager 0 1395 35.30% 31.85%
3 2021-10-24 43.82 Fremad Amager 3 1335 17.86% @ Nykobing 0 1450 52.97% 29.17%
4 2021-09-24 43.27 @ HB Koge 3 1348 18.44% Fredericia 0 1517 52.15% 29.41%
5 2021-10-30 42.53 Nykobing 5 1406 41.77% @ Jammerbugt 0 1320 26.77% 31.46%
6 2021-10-03 41.53 @ Nykobing 3 1422 20.32% Helsingor 0 1569 49.58% 30.10%
7 2022-03-12 39.60 Helsingor 4 1602 35.74% @ Hvidovre 0 1560 32.42% 31.85%
8 2021-08-07 39.28 @ Lyngby 5 1497 44.82% Esbjerg 0 1449 24.13% 31.05%
9 2021-08-28 38.99 Helsingor 6 1517 50.78% @ Jammerbugt 0 1359 19.43% 29.80%
10 2022-02-26 38.70 Hobro 3 1354 23.66% @ Vendsyssel 0 1407 45.38% 30.96%
11 2021-08-01 34.61 Hvidovre 3 1429 29.14% @ HB Koge 0 1434 39.17% 31.69%
12 2021-11-28 34.47 @ Esbjerg 3 1387 29.35% Nykobing 0 1453 38.95% 31.70%
13 2021-11-19 32.32 @ HB Koge 3 1378 32.57% Esbjerg 0 1420 35.58% 31.85%
14 2021-10-29 31.95 Esbjerg 6 1390 29.18% @ Hobro 2 1395 39.13% 31.69%
15 2022-05-23 31.38 Horsens 4 1610 45.38% @ Fredericia 0 1496 23.66% 30.96%
16 2022-05-28 29.18 Vendsyssel 4 1347 29.15% @ Fremad Amager 1 1352 39.16% 31.69%
17 2021-10-31 28.33 @ Fredericia 4 1474 48.84% Vendsyssel 0 1394 20.88% 30.27%
18 2021-11-27 28.07 @ Hvidovre 5 1522 42.73% Fredericia 1 1491 25.93% 31.35%
19 2021-07-23 27.72 HB Koge 2 1407 21.77% @ Horsens 0 1477 47.71% 30.52%
20 2021-07-31 27.22 Horsens 4 1450 32.63% @ Fremad Amager 1 1429 35.52% 31.85%
21 2021-11-01 26.91 @ HB Koge 2 1378 23.19% Horsens 0 1496 45.95% 30.86%
22 2021-11-07 26.88 @ Vendsyssel 4 1369 33.24% HB Koge 1 1405 34.90% 31.86%
23 2021-08-09 26.39 Fredericia 3 1466 41.82% @ Jammerbugt 0 1380 26.73% 31.45%
24 2022-04-02 26.04 @ HB Koge 3 1408 42.34% Vendsyssel 0 1379 26.26% 31.39%
25 2021-11-07 25.72 @ Horsens 6 1470 52.41% Fremad Amager 1 1359 18.26% 29.34%