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2020-21 1st Division Season

192 games

Final

Promoted

Viborg

76 pts

Silkeborg · 73 pts

Relegated

Skive

28 pts

Kolding FC · 32 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Viborg

38.33 points above expected

76 points · 37.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hobro

0.74 points below expected

34 points · 33.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viborg 22 17 5 0 56 45 14 +31 37.67 +18.33
2 Silkeborg 22 16 1 5 49 53 19 +34 38.83 +10.17
3 Esbjerg 22 15 3 4 48 33 20 +13 35.66 +12.34
4 Helsingor 22 11 3 8 36 31 27 +4 26.97 +9.03
5 Fredericia 22 9 5 8 32 29 27 +2 31.42 +0.58
6 HB Koge 22 8 6 8 30 23 25 -2 27.41 +2.59
7 Fremad Amager 22 8 4 10 28 40 29 +11 32.53 -4.53
8 Hobro 22 6 6 10 24 30 40 -10 33.26 -9.26
9 Hvidovre 22 7 2 13 23 23 38 -15 24.77 -1.77
10 Vendsyssel 22 4 4 14 16 19 40 -21 25.95 -9.95
11 Kolding IF 22 2 8 12 14 19 40 -21 26.35 -12.35
12 Skive 22 3 5 14 14 19 45 -26 22.73 -8.73
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viborg Promoted 32 23 7 2 76 71 24 +47 — —
2 Silkeborg Promoted 32 23 4 5 73 76 28 +48 — —
3 Esbjerg 32 18 5 9 59 43 38 +5 — —
4 Helsingor 32 16 5 11 53 50 41 +9 — —
5 Fredericia 32 13 5 14 44 42 44 -2 — —
6 HB Koge 32 8 7 17 31 28 53 -25 — —
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hvidovre 32 11 6 15 39 40 47 -7 — —
2 Fremad Amager 32 10 5 17 35 47 41 +6 — —
3 Hobro 32 8 10 14 34 38 51 -13 — —
4 Vendsyssel 32 8 8 16 32 33 51 -18 — —
5 Kolding IF 32 7 11 14 32 31 49 -18 — —
6 Skive Relegated 32 7 7 18 28 28 60 -32 — —

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Silkeborg 1595 73 38.83 +34.17 96.7% 17 29 35 39 43 49 58
Viborg 1578 76 37.67 +38.33 99.9% 16 28 34 38 42 47 62
Esbjerg 1469 59 35.66 +23.34 98.5% 9 26 32 36 40 46 55
Helsingor 1431 53 26.97 +26.03 94.6% 8 17 23 27 31 37 51
Fredericia 1420 44 31.42 +12.58 57.8% 8 22 27 31 35 41 55
Fremad Amager 1402 35 32.53 +2.47 25.4% 11 23 28 32 37 43 54
Hobro 1398 34 33.26 +0.74 7.2% 11 23 29 33 37 43 53
Hvidovre 1383 39 24.77 +14.23 42.3% 5 15 21 25 29 34 47
Vendsyssel 1364 32 25.95 +6.05 5.3% 6 16 22 26 30 36 49
Kolding IF 1358 32 26.35 +5.65 1.9% 7 17 22 26 30 36 48
HB Koge 1334 31 27.41 +3.59 70.5% 7 18 23 27 31 37 53
Skive 1300 28 22.73 +5.27 6.7% 4 14 19 23 27 32 43

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ESB FRE FA HK HEL HOB HVI KI SIL SKI VEN VIB
Esbjerg —
3-0-1
6.38
2-0-0
3.01
4-0-0
7.04
2-1-1
6.80
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
3.54
0-1-3
4.72
2-0-0
3.62
1-1-0
3.71
0-1-3
4.84
Fredericia
1-0-3
4.60
 —
2-0-0
2.59
3-1-0
6.23
1-0-3
5.94
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-3
3.84
2-0-0
3.54
0-2-0
3.27
0-1-3
3.96
Fremad Amager
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-2
2.90
 —
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
3.30
1-2-1
5.67
2-0-2
6.68
0-2-2
6.75
0-0-2
2.16
3-0-1
7.18
2-0-2
6.46
0-1-1
2.34
HB Koge
0-0-4
4.00
0-1-3
4.75
1-0-1
2.30
 —
2-0-2
5.31
0-1-1
2.25
1-1-0
2.93
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-4
3.13
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
2.85
0-2-2
3.51
Helsingor
1-1-2
4.20
3-0-1
5.03
1-0-1
2.20
2-0-2
5.65
 —
1-0-1
2.26
2-0-0
2.82
1-1-0
2.73
1-2-1
3.39
1-1-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.84
1-0-3
3.54
Hobro
0-0-2
2.50
1-1-0
2.92
1-2-1
5.30
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
3.24
 —
1-1-2
6.58
0-2-2
6.72
0-0-2
2.17
2-1-1
7.27
1-1-2
6.71
0-1-1
2.55
Hvidovre
1-0-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.15
2-0-2
4.31
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.68
2-1-1
4.42
 —
1-2-1
5.53
0-0-2
1.63
2-1-1
6.18
2-1-1
5.48
0-0-2
1.63
Kolding IF
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
2.47
2-2-0
4.26
0-1-1
2.57
0-1-1
2.75
2-2-0
4.28
1-2-1
5.45
 —
0-0-2
1.83
1-1-2
6.15
1-1-2
5.65
0-0-2
1.77
Silkeborg
3-1-0
6.27
3-0-1
7.23
2-0-0
3.36
4-0-0
8.04
1-2-1
7.73
2-0-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.72
 —
2-0-0
3.93
1-0-1
3.90
1-1-2
5.81
Skive
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-3
3.88
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-2
3.79
1-1-2
4.81
2-1-1
4.84
0-0-2
1.62
 —
2-2-0
4.90
0-0-2
1.56
Vendsyssel
0-1-1
1.82
0-2-0
2.24
2-0-2
4.53
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
2.64
2-1-1
4.29
1-1-2
5.50
2-1-1
5.31
1-0-1
1.65
0-2-2
6.07
 —
0-0-2
1.79
Viborg
3-1-0
6.15
3-1-0
7.09
1-1-0
3.15
2-2-0
7.62
3-0-1
7.55
1-1-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.76
2-1-1
5.16
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
3.75
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +9.9
Allowed 0.89 -15.2
Differential 0.89 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%7.29%7.03%5.73%2.86%0.52%27.60%
17.29%11.98%9.38%2.86%0.78%0.52%32.81%
27.03%9.38%3.12%1.04%1.30%—21.88%
35.73%2.86%1.04%1.56%0.26%—11.46%
42.86%0.78%1.30%0.26%——5.21%
5+0.52%0.52%————1.04%
Total27.60%32.81%21.88%11.46%5.21%1.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.96
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%9.38%—6.25%—21.88%
115.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%——31.25%
212.50%18.75%6.25%———37.50%
3—6.25%3.12%———9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%34.38%25.00%3.12%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.19 +0.16
SD 0.94 1.12 1.67
CV 0.70 0.94 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%3.12%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
16.25%15.62%9.38%6.25%3.12%—40.62%
23.12%18.75%—3.12%——25.00%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%50.00%12.50%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.38 -0.06
SD 1.03 1.13 1.83
CV 0.78 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
1—6.25%12.50%6.25%——25.00%
26.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
36.25%—————6.25%
49.38%—————9.38%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total31.25%25.00%28.12%15.62%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.28 +0.19
SD 1.67 1.08 2.39
CV 1.13 0.85 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%43.75%
16.25%15.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%—37.50%
23.12%6.25%————9.38%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total18.75%37.50%15.62%18.75%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.66 -0.78
SD 1.04 1.33 1.91
CV 1.19 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%9.38%6.25%——28.12%
19.38%—9.38%——3.12%21.88%
26.25%15.62%3.12%———25.00%
39.38%3.12%—6.25%——18.75%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%25.00%25.00%12.50%—3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.28 +0.28
SD 1.34 1.25 2.00
CV 0.86 0.98 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%3.12%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
13.12%18.75%12.50%———34.38%
23.12%6.25%6.25%—3.12%—18.75%
33.12%6.25%3.12%—3.12%—15.62%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.62%40.62%25.00%6.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.59 -0.41
SD 1.06 1.21 1.66
CV 0.89 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%—31.25%
16.25%9.38%15.62%——3.12%34.38%
29.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
36.25%—3.12%———9.38%
43.12%——3.12%——6.25%
5+———————
Total28.12%21.88%34.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.47 -0.22
SD 1.19 1.27 1.96
CV 0.95 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
13.12%25.00%9.38%———37.50%
26.25%9.38%——9.38%—25.00%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%40.62%21.88%6.25%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.53 -0.56
SD 0.86 1.24 1.46
CV 0.89 0.81 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%————6.25%
16.25%3.12%6.25%———15.62%
225.00%6.25%——3.12%—34.38%
312.50%3.12%—9.38%——25.00%
46.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total50.00%28.12%9.38%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.38 0.88 +1.50
SD 1.21 1.13 1.63
CV 0.51 1.29 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—15.62%9.38%9.38%—40.62%
19.38%9.38%12.50%6.25%——37.50%
2—9.38%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
3———————
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+———————
Total15.62%18.75%37.50%18.75%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 1.88 -1.00
SD 0.94 1.18 1.67
CV 1.08 0.63 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%9.38%3.12%9.38%—3.12%28.12%
16.25%18.75%12.50%6.25%3.12%—46.88%
26.25%6.25%3.12%3.12%——18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.88%34.38%18.75%18.75%3.12%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.59 -0.56
SD 0.86 1.39 1.90
CV 0.83 0.87 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.12%3.12%——6.25%
115.62%15.62%————31.25%
23.12%9.38%3.12%———15.62%
315.62%9.38%—3.12%——28.12%
412.50%3.12%3.12%———18.75%
5+———————
Total46.88%37.50%9.38%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.75 +1.47
SD 1.26 0.88 1.70
CV 0.57 1.17 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Viborg 76 37.67 +38.33
2 Silkeborg 73 38.83 +34.17
3 Helsingor 53 26.97 +26.03
4 Esbjerg 59 35.66 +23.34
5 Hvidovre 39 24.77 +14.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hobro 34 33.26 +0.74
2 Fremad Amager 35 32.53 +2.47
3 HB Koge 31 27.41 +3.59
4 Skive 28 22.73 +5.27
5 Kolding IF 32 26.35 +5.65

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 8 Oct 24 – Dec 20 1 in 450
2 Helsingor 5 Feb 12 – Mar 12 1 in 235
3 Silkeborg 9 Dec 12 – Apr 5 1 in 191
4 Hvidovre 4 Nov 7 – Dec 6 1 in 167
5 Viborg 7 Dec 18 – Mar 19 1 in 62

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fremad Amager 6 Apr 30 – May 27 1 in 1,344
2 HB Koge 9 Apr 9 – May 26 1 in 456
3 Hvidovre 5 Sep 11 – Oct 1 1 in 85
4 Kolding IF 5 Sep 13 – Sep 30 1 in 76
5 Hobro 4 Mar 13 – Apr 9 1 in 64

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viborg 25 Sep 10 – Apr 16 1 in 2,517
2 Silkeborg 18 Dec 12 – May 26 1 in 120
3 Kolding IF 6 Oct 3 – Nov 7 1 in 29
4 Esbjerg 10 Oct 24 – Feb 21 1 in 27
5 HB Koge 6 Dec 4 – Feb 28 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hobro 12 Dec 18 – May 2 1 in 489
2 Skive 14 Sep 12 – Dec 4 1 in 101
3 HB Koge 13 Mar 7 – May 26 1 in 72
4 Kolding IF 10 Dec 3 – Apr 4 1 in 45
5 Fremad Amager 6 Nov 7 – Dec 20 1 in 39

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Viborg26.42%22.13%15.60%12.02%8.15%6.03%3.72%2.66%1.57%1.11%0.45%0.14%
Silkeborg34.92%22.15%14.35%10.23%6.85%4.39%3.24%1.92%0.93%0.55%0.34%0.13%
Esbjerg15.46%17.68%16.68%13.88%11.36%8.53%5.73%4.45%2.75%1.98%0.99%0.51%
Helsingor1.04%2.35%4.15%6.09%7.66%10.07%10.51%12.13%12.59%12.38%11.33%9.70%
Fredericia4.89%7.44%10.68%11.67%12.31%12.08%11.61%9.44%7.71%5.61%4.06%2.50%
Hvidovre0.48%0.97%1.99%2.92%4.49%6.41%8.92%10.79%12.79%15.52%17.16%17.56%
Fremad Amager6.70%10.21%12.45%13.26%12.99%11.68%9.57%8.09%6.26%4.40%2.96%1.43%
Hobro7.37%10.98%13.08%13.24%13.35%11.45%9.25%7.36%6.00%3.89%2.60%1.43%
Vendsyssel0.73%1.53%2.84%4.18%5.74%7.43%9.98%11.03%13.24%13.95%15.21%14.14%
Kolding IF0.65%1.76%3.04%4.62%6.22%7.98%9.77%12.38%13.11%13.89%13.54%13.04%
HB Koge1.25%2.38%4.09%6.27%8.06%10.10%12.11%12.09%12.40%12.18%10.99%8.08%
Skive0.09%0.42%1.05%1.62%2.82%3.85%5.59%7.66%10.65%14.54%20.37%31.34%
Team123456789101112
Viborg————————————
Silkeborg————————————
Esbjerg————————————
Helsingor————————————
Fredericia————————————
Hvidovre————————————
Fremad Amager————————————
Hobro————————————
Vendsyssel————————————
Kolding IF————————————
HB Koge————————————
Skive————————————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.38%
Slight Edge
44.27%20.83%34.90%
Elo Value
Home Edge
109 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
032.67300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
26%
Viborg, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.12 * Lucky: 7.12 to 9.49 * Wild Swing: 9.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.76 * Close: 1.76 to 2.64 * Off: 2.64 to 3.53 * Way Off: 3.53 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2 * A Surprise: 2 to 3.2 * Several Surprises: 3.2 to 4.4 * Many Surprises: 4.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
9.63 points
Wild Swing
05.9315
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
02.205
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.95%
Viborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.95%
Kolding IF
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 2.0
2 of 2
A Surprise
02

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.97
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.63
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.74
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.49
Very Underconfident
0.3596441.001.64036
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1150.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Esbjerg 83.59% 16.41%
Fredericia 59.07% 40.93%
Fremad Amager 67.29% 32.71%
HB Koge 32.15% 67.85%
Helsingor 31.36% 68.64%
Hobro 69.47% 30.53%
Hvidovre 17.26% 82.74%
Kolding IF 24.27% 75.73%
Silkeborg 92.89% 7.11%
Skive 9.85% 90.15%
Vendsyssel 22.45% 77.55%
Viborg 90.35% 9.65%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for promotion playoff Same level
Esbjerg 100% —
Fredericia 100% —
Fremad Amager — 100%
HB Koge 100% —
Helsingor 100% —
Hobro — 100%
Hvidovre — 100%
Kolding IF — 100%
Silkeborg 100% —
Skive — 100%
Vendsyssel — 100%
Viborg 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-09-10 Viborg D 1-1 1473 1465 45.45% 25.68% 28.87% -0.4 1
2020-09-10 @ Hobro D 1-1 1465 1473 28.87% 25.68% 45.45% +0.4 1
2020-09-11 Hvidovre W 2-1 1394 1386 45.34% 25.70% 28.96% +3.5 3
2020-09-11 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1386 1394 28.96% 25.70% 45.34% -3.5 0
2020-09-11 Silkeborg W 4-2 1363 1485 27.95% 25.49% 46.56% +7.7 3
2020-09-11 @ Helsingor L 2-4 1485 1363 46.56% 25.49% 27.95% -7.7 0
2020-09-12 Esbjerg L 0-2 1368 1464 30.99% 26.03% 42.98% -7.3 0
2020-09-12 @ Skive W 2-0 1464 1368 42.98% 26.03% 30.99% +7.3 3
2020-09-12 Vendsyssel W 6-0 1413 1400 46.15% 25.56% 28.28% +18.8 3
2020-09-12 @ Fremad Amager L 0-6 1400 1413 28.28% 25.56% 46.15% -18.8 0
2020-09-13 Kolding IF W 2-1 1415 1406 45.61% 25.66% 28.73% +3.4 3
2020-09-13 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1406 1415 28.73% 25.66% 45.61% -3.4 0
2020-09-15 Helsingor L 0-3 1383 1371 45.89% 25.61% 28.50% -14.3 0
2020-09-15 @ Hvidovre W 3-0 1371 1383 28.50% 25.61% 45.89% +14.3 6
2020-09-15 Hobro W 3-0 1381 1473 31.50% 26.09% 42.41% +13.5 3
2020-09-15 @ Vendsyssel L 0-3 1473 1381 42.41% 26.09% 31.50% -13.5 1
2020-09-16 HB Koge W 1-0 1471 1397 54.29% 23.51% 22.20% +2.9 6
2020-09-16 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1397 1471 22.20% 23.51% 54.29% -2.9 3
2020-09-16 Kolding IF W 4-2 1465 1402 52.82% 23.97% 23.21% +4.4 4
2020-09-16 @ Viborg L 2-4 1402 1465 23.21% 23.97% 52.82% -4.4 0
2020-09-16 Skive W 2-0 1477 1361 59.59% 21.56% 18.84% +4.6 3
2020-09-16 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1361 1477 18.84% 21.56% 59.59% -4.6 0
2020-09-17 Fremad Amager W 3-1 1419 1432 42.42% 26.09% 31.49% +6.4 6
2020-09-17 @ Fredericia L 1-3 1432 1419 31.49% 26.09% 42.42% -6.4 3
2020-09-18 Vendsyssel W 3-0 1385 1394 43.02% 26.02% 30.96% +10.6 9
2020-09-18 @ Helsingor L 0-3 1394 1385 30.96% 26.02% 43.02% -10.6 3
2020-09-19 Esbjerg W 3-1 1482 1474 45.36% 25.70% 28.95% +6.0 6
2020-09-19 @ Silkeborg L 1-3 1474 1482 28.95% 25.70% 45.36% -6.0 6
2020-09-19 HB Koge L 2-4 1398 1394 44.82% 25.78% 29.40% -7.5 0
2020-09-19 @ Kolding IF W 4-2 1394 1398 29.40% 25.78% 44.82% +7.5 6
2020-09-19 Skive W 3-1 1470 1356 59.23% 21.71% 19.06% +4.0 7
2020-09-19 @ Viborg L 1-3 1356 1470 19.06% 21.71% 59.23% -4.0 0
2020-09-20 Fredericia W 3-2 1459 1425 49.00% 24.98% 26.01% +3.0 4
2020-09-20 @ Hobro L 2-3 1425 1459 26.01% 24.98% 49.00% -3.0 6
2020-09-20 Hvidovre W 4-0 1426 1368 52.09% 24.19% 23.73% +11.0 6
2020-09-20 @ Fremad Amager L 0-4 1368 1426 23.73% 24.19% 52.09% -11.0 0
2020-09-25 Helsingor W 2-1 1468 1396 54.02% 23.60% 22.38% +2.7 9
2020-09-25 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1396 1468 22.38% 23.60% 54.02% -2.7 9
2020-09-25 Hobro L 1-2 1357 1462 29.87% 25.86% 44.27% -3.5 0
2020-09-25 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1462 1357 44.27% 25.86% 29.87% +3.5 7
2020-09-25 Kolding IF W 1-0 1384 1390 43.37% 25.98% 30.65% +3.8 6
2020-09-25 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1390 1384 30.65% 25.98% 43.37% -3.8 0
2020-09-26 Fremad Amager L 0-2 1352 1437 32.45% 26.19% 41.36% -7.6 0
2020-09-26 @ Skive W 2-0 1437 1352 41.36% 26.19% 32.45% +7.6 9
2020-09-27 Silkeborg W 1-0 1422 1488 34.96% 26.35% 38.68% +4.6 9
2020-09-27 @ Fredericia L 0-1 1488 1422 38.68% 26.35% 34.96% -4.6 6
2020-09-27 Viborg L 0-3 1402 1474 34.09% 26.31% 39.60% -11.4 6
2020-09-27 @ HB Koge W 3-0 1474 1402 39.60% 26.31% 34.09% +11.4 10
2020-09-29 Esbjerg L 2-3 1444 1471 40.52% 26.26% 33.23% -4.2 9
2020-09-29 @ Fremad Amager W 3-2 1471 1444 33.23% 26.26% 40.52% +4.2 12
2020-09-29 Skive W 2-1 1466 1345 60.18% 21.32% 18.50% +2.2 10
2020-09-29 @ Hobro L 1-2 1345 1466 18.50% 21.32% 60.18% -2.2 0
2020-09-30 HB Koge L 0-2 1393 1390 44.72% 25.80% 29.49% -9.7 9
2020-09-30 @ Helsingor W 2-0 1390 1393 29.49% 25.80% 44.72% +9.7 9
2020-09-30 Silkeborg L 0-4 1387 1483 30.90% 26.02% 43.08% -13.8 0
2020-09-30 @ Kolding IF W 4-0 1483 1387 43.08% 26.02% 30.90% +13.8 9
2020-09-30 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1485 1388 57.24% 22.48% 20.28% +4.3 13
2020-09-30 @ Viborg L 1-3 1388 1485 20.28% 22.48% 57.24% -4.3 6
2020-10-01 Fredericia L 0-3 1354 1427 33.97% 26.31% 39.73% -11.4 0
2020-10-01 @ Hvidovre W 3-0 1427 1354 39.73% 26.31% 33.97% +11.4 12
2020-10-03 Fremad Amager L 0-3 1400 1440 38.61% 26.35% 35.03% -12.5 9
2020-10-03 @ HB Koge W 3-0 1440 1400 35.03% 26.35% 38.61% +12.5 12
2020-10-03 Hobro W 4-2 1497 1468 48.28% 25.15% 26.58% +5.0 12
2020-10-03 @ Silkeborg L 2-4 1468 1497 26.58% 25.15% 48.28% -5.0 10
2020-10-03 Kolding IF D 1-1 1342 1373 39.99% 26.29% 33.72% -0.2 1
2020-10-03 @ Skive D 1-1 1373 1342 33.72% 26.29% 39.99% +0.1 1
2020-10-03 Viborg D 2-2 1475 1489 42.29% 26.10% 31.61% -0.2 13
2020-10-03 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1489 1475 31.61% 26.10% 42.29% +0.2 14
2020-10-04 Helsingor L 1-2 1438 1384 51.71% 24.29% 24.00% -5.4 12
2020-10-04 @ Fredericia W 2-1 1384 1438 24.00% 24.29% 51.71% +5.4 12
2020-10-04 Hvidovre L 1-2 1383 1342 49.93% 24.76% 25.31% -5.3 6
2020-10-04 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1342 1383 25.31% 24.76% 49.93% +5.3 3
2020-10-16 Fremad Amager W 3-1 1490 1452 49.39% 24.89% 25.72% +5.4 17
2020-10-16 @ Viborg L 1-3 1452 1490 25.72% 24.89% 49.39% -5.4 12
2020-10-16 Silkeborg L 1-5 1348 1502 24.51% 24.49% 51.00% -9.4 3
2020-10-16 @ Hvidovre W 5-1 1502 1348 51.00% 24.49% 24.51% +9.4 15
2020-10-17 Esbjerg D 1-1 1373 1475 30.23% 25.92% 43.85% +0.3 2
2020-10-17 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1475 1373 43.85% 25.92% 30.23% -0.3 14
2020-10-17 HB Koge W 3-1 1463 1387 54.49% 23.45% 22.06% +4.7 13
2020-10-17 @ Hobro L 1-3 1387 1463 22.06% 23.45% 54.49% -4.7 9
2020-10-18 Fredericia D 1-1 1378 1433 36.53% 26.38% 37.08% +0.0 7
2020-10-18 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1433 1378 37.08% 26.38% 36.53% -0.0 13
2020-10-18 Skive W 2-1 1389 1342 50.69% 24.57% 24.74% +3.0 15
2020-10-18 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1342 1389 24.74% 24.57% 50.69% -3.0 1
2020-10-20 Hobro W 2-1 1373 1468 31.16% 26.05% 42.80% +4.7 5
2020-10-20 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1468 1373 42.80% 26.05% 31.16% -4.7 13
2020-10-20 Hvidovre L 0-2 1475 1338 62.01% 20.54% 17.45% -12.5 14
2020-10-20 @ Esbjerg W 2-0 1338 1475 17.45% 20.54% 62.01% +12.5 6
2020-10-21 Fredericia L 0-1 1383 1433 37.18% 26.38% 36.44% -4.5 9
2020-10-21 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1433 1383 36.44% 26.38% 37.18% +4.5 16
2020-10-21 Helsingor W 5-1 1447 1392 51.78% 24.27% 23.95% +9.2 15
2020-10-21 @ Fremad Amager L 1-5 1392 1447 23.95% 24.27% 51.78% -9.2 15
2020-10-21 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1339 1378 38.77% 26.35% 34.88% -0.1 2
2020-10-21 @ Skive D 1-1 1378 1339 34.88% 26.35% 38.77% +0.1 8
2020-10-22 Viborg L 1-2 1511 1495 46.57% 25.49% 27.94% -5.0 15
2020-10-22 @ Silkeborg W 2-1 1495 1511 27.94% 25.49% 46.57% +5.0 20
2020-10-24 Esbjerg L 1-2 1463 1462 44.43% 25.84% 29.73% -4.8 13
2020-10-24 @ Hobro W 2-1 1462 1463 29.73% 25.84% 44.43% +4.8 17
2020-10-24 HB Koge L 0-1 1378 1378 44.30% 25.86% 29.84% -5.1 8
2020-10-24 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1378 1378 29.84% 25.86% 44.30% +5.1 12
2020-10-24 Kolding IF D 0-0 1383 1378 44.97% 25.76% 29.27% -0.4 16
2020-10-24 @ Helsingor D 0-0 1378 1383 29.27% 25.76% 44.97% +0.4 6
2020-10-24 Skive W 2-1 1437 1339 57.31% 22.46% 20.23% +2.5 19
2020-10-24 @ Fredericia L 1-2 1339 1437 20.23% 22.46% 57.31% -2.5 2
2020-10-25 Silkeborg L 0-3 1456 1506 37.16% 26.38% 36.45% -12.2 15
2020-10-25 @ Fremad Amager W 3-0 1506 1456 36.45% 26.38% 37.16% +12.2 18
2020-10-25 Viborg L 1-2 1351 1500 25.01% 24.66% 50.33% -3.0 6
2020-10-25 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1500 1351 50.33% 24.66% 25.01% +3.0 23
2020-10-30 Helsingor W 3-0 1503 1382 60.10% 21.35% 18.54% +6.5 26
2020-10-30 @ Viborg L 0-3 1382 1503 18.54% 21.35% 60.10% -6.5 16
2020-10-30 Hvidovre D 1-1 1378 1348 48.53% 25.09% 26.38% -0.5 7
2020-10-30 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1348 1378 26.38% 25.09% 48.53% +0.5 7
2020-10-31 Fredericia W 3-1 1467 1440 48.07% 25.19% 26.74% +5.6 20
2020-10-31 @ Esbjerg L 1-3 1440 1467 26.74% 25.19% 48.07% -5.6 19
2020-10-31 Fremad Amager L 0-4 1458 1444 46.27% 25.54% 28.19% -18.8 13
2020-10-31 @ Hobro W 4-0 1444 1458 28.19% 25.54% 46.27% +18.8 18
2020-11-01 Skive D 0-0 1383 1337 50.67% 24.57% 24.76% -0.7 13
2020-11-01 @ HB Koge D 0-0 1337 1383 24.76% 24.57% 50.67% +0.7 3
2020-11-01 Vendsyssel W 4-1 1519 1373 63.07% 20.07% 16.86% +4.9 21
2020-11-01 @ Silkeborg L 1-4 1373 1519 16.86% 20.07% 63.07% -5.0 8
2020-11-05 Hobro L 0-1 1376 1440 35.24% 26.36% 38.40% -4.3 16
2020-11-05 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1440 1376 38.40% 26.36% 35.24% +4.3 16
2020-11-06 Viborg D 1-1 1434 1510 33.62% 26.28% 40.09% +0.2 20
2020-11-06 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1510 1434 40.09% 26.28% 33.62% -0.1 27
2020-11-07 Hvidovre L 2-3 1337 1348 42.78% 26.05% 31.17% -4.4 3
2020-11-07 @ Skive W 3-2 1348 1337 31.17% 26.05% 42.78% +4.4 10
2020-11-07 Kolding IF D 0-0 1463 1378 55.68% 23.04% 21.27% -1.0 19
2020-11-07 @ Fremad Amager D 0-0 1378 1463 21.27% 23.04% 55.68% +1.0 8
2020-11-08 Silkeborg L 0-1 1383 1524 25.85% 24.94% 49.21% -3.3 13
2020-11-08 @ HB Koge W 1-0 1524 1383 49.21% 24.94% 25.85% +3.3 24
2020-11-20 Fredericia L 1-2 1379 1434 36.41% 26.38% 37.21% -4.1 8
2020-11-20 @ Kolding IF W 2-1 1434 1379 37.21% 26.38% 36.41% +4.1 23
2020-11-20 Hobro W 2-1 1509 1444 53.17% 23.87% 22.97% +2.8 30
2020-11-20 @ Viborg L 1-2 1444 1509 22.97% 23.87% 53.17% -2.8 16
2020-11-21 Helsingor D 3-3 1527 1372 64.22% 19.54% 16.24% -0.8 25
2020-11-21 @ Silkeborg D 3-3 1372 1527 16.24% 19.54% 64.22% +0.8 17
2020-11-21 Vendsyssel W 2-0 1353 1368 42.09% 26.12% 31.79% +7.5 13
2020-11-21 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1368 1353 31.79% 26.12% 42.09% -7.5 8
2020-11-22 HB Koge L 0-1 1462 1379 55.38% 23.15% 21.47% -6.1 19
2020-11-22 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1379 1462 21.47% 23.15% 55.38% +6.1 16
2020-11-22 Skive W 2-1 1473 1333 62.38% 20.37% 17.24% +2.1 23
2020-11-22 @ Esbjerg L 1-2 1333 1473 17.24% 20.37% 62.38% -2.1 3
2020-11-26 Silkeborg W 1-0 1512 1526 42.33% 26.10% 31.57% +3.9 33
2020-11-26 @ Viborg L 0-1 1526 1512 31.57% 26.10% 42.33% -3.9 25
2020-11-27 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1372 1456 32.56% 26.20% 41.24% +4.5 20
2020-11-27 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1456 1372 41.24% 26.20% 32.56% -4.5 19
2020-11-27 Vendsyssel W 3-2 1375 1361 46.22% 25.55% 28.23% +3.2 11
2020-11-27 @ Kolding IF L 2-3 1361 1375 28.23% 25.55% 46.22% -3.2 8
2020-11-28 Esbjerg L 0-2 1385 1475 31.82% 26.13% 42.05% -7.4 16
2020-11-28 @ HB Koge W 2-0 1475 1385 42.05% 26.13% 31.82% +7.5 26
2020-11-28 Fredericia L 0-4 1331 1438 29.59% 25.81% 44.60% -13.3 3
2020-11-28 @ Skive W 4-0 1438 1331 44.60% 25.81% 29.59% +13.4 26
2020-11-29 Hvidovre L 3-4 1441 1360 55.15% 23.23% 21.62% -5.3 16
2020-11-29 @ Hobro W 4-3 1360 1441 21.62% 23.23% 55.15% +5.3 16
2020-12-03 Kolding IF W 2-0 1482 1378 58.09% 22.16% 19.75% +4.8 29
2020-12-03 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1378 1482 19.75% 22.16% 58.09% -4.8 11
2020-12-04 Helsingor W 2-1 1378 1377 44.43% 25.84% 29.73% +3.5 19
2020-12-04 @ HB Koge L 1-2 1377 1378 29.73% 25.84% 44.43% -3.5 20
2020-12-04 Hobro D 2-2 1318 1436 28.33% 25.57% 46.10% +0.3 4
2020-12-04 @ Skive D 2-2 1436 1318 46.10% 25.57% 28.33% -0.3 17
2020-12-05 Viborg D 1-1 1451 1516 35.09% 26.36% 38.55% +0.1 20
2020-12-05 @ Fremad Amager D 1-1 1516 1451 38.55% 26.36% 35.09% -0.1 34
2020-12-06 Hvidovre L 0-1 1452 1365 55.84% 22.99% 21.17% -6.1 26
2020-12-06 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1365 1452 21.17% 22.99% 55.84% +6.1 19
2020-12-06 Silkeborg W 2-1 1358 1522 23.53% 24.11% 52.36% +5.5 11
2020-12-06 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1522 1358 52.36% 24.11% 23.53% -5.5 25
2020-12-09 Esbjerg L 1-2 1363 1487 27.69% 25.43% 46.88% -3.3 11
2020-12-09 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1487 1363 46.88% 25.43% 27.69% +3.3 32
2020-12-11 Fremad Amager D 1-1 1373 1451 33.24% 26.26% 40.51% +0.2 12
2020-12-11 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1451 1373 40.51% 26.26% 33.24% -0.2 21
2020-12-11 HB Koge D 1-1 1516 1381 61.79% 20.63% 17.57% -1.1 35
2020-12-11 @ Viborg D 1-1 1381 1516 17.57% 20.63% 61.79% +1.1 20
2020-12-12 Fredericia W 2-0 1517 1446 53.90% 23.64% 22.47% +5.5 28
2020-12-12 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1446 1517 22.47% 23.64% 53.90% -5.5 26
2020-12-12 Skive L 1-2 1371 1318 51.59% 24.33% 24.09% -5.4 19
2020-12-12 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1318 1371 24.09% 24.33% 51.59% +5.4 7
2020-12-13 Esbjerg L 1-2 1373 1490 28.48% 25.60% 45.91% -3.4 20
2020-12-13 @ Helsingor W 2-1 1490 1373 45.91% 25.60% 28.48% +3.4 35
2020-12-13 Vendsyssel W 3-1 1435 1360 54.48% 23.45% 22.07% +4.7 20
2020-12-13 @ Hobro L 1-3 1360 1435 22.07% 23.45% 54.48% -4.7 11
2020-12-18 Kolding IF D 1-1 1440 1373 53.33% 23.81% 22.85% -0.8 21
2020-12-18 @ Hobro D 1-1 1373 1440 22.85% 23.81% 53.33% +0.8 13
2020-12-18 Silkeborg L 0-4 1323 1522 20.57% 22.65% 56.78% -9.5 7
2020-12-18 @ Skive W 4-0 1522 1323 56.78% 22.65% 20.57% +9.5 31
2020-12-18 Viborg L 0-1 1370 1515 25.45% 24.81% 49.75% -3.3 20
2020-12-18 @ Helsingor W 1-0 1515 1370 49.75% 24.81% 25.45% +3.3 38
2020-12-19 HB Koge D 1-1 1440 1383 52.11% 24.18% 23.71% -0.7 27
2020-12-19 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1383 1440 23.71% 24.18% 52.11% +0.7 21
2020-12-20 Esbjerg L 0-1 1366 1494 27.28% 25.33% 47.39% -3.5 19
2020-12-20 @ Hvidovre W 1-0 1494 1366 47.39% 25.33% 27.28% +3.5 38
2020-12-20 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1355 1451 30.95% 26.02% 43.03% +9.4 14
2020-12-20 @ Vendsyssel L 0-2 1451 1355 43.03% 26.02% 30.95% -9.4 21
2021-02-12 Fredericia W 4-0 1518 1439 54.88% 23.32% 21.80% +10.1 41
2021-02-12 @ Viborg L 0-4 1439 1518 21.80% 23.32% 54.88% -10.1 27
2021-02-12 Helsingor L 0-2 1374 1367 45.31% 25.71% 28.99% -9.8 13
2021-02-12 @ Kolding IF W 2-0 1367 1374 28.99% 25.71% 45.31% +9.8 23
2021-02-13 Hobro D 1-1 1383 1439 36.31% 26.38% 37.31% +0.0 22
2021-02-13 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1439 1383 37.31% 26.38% 36.31% -0.0 22
2021-02-13 Vendsyssel D 0-0 1497 1364 61.56% 20.74% 17.71% -1.2 39
2021-02-13 @ Esbjerg D 0-0 1364 1497 17.71% 20.74% 61.56% +1.2 15
2021-02-14 Hvidovre W 2-0 1532 1363 65.81% 18.79% 15.40% +3.6 34
2021-02-14 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1363 1532 15.40% 18.79% 65.81% -3.6 19
2021-02-14 Skive W 4-0 1442 1314 61.02% 20.97% 18.02% +8.3 24
2021-02-14 @ Fremad Amager L 0-4 1314 1442 18.02% 20.97% 61.02% -8.3 7
2021-02-18 Kolding IF W 3-0 1535 1364 66.03% 18.68% 15.29% +5.2 37
2021-02-18 @ Silkeborg L 0-3 1364 1535 15.29% 18.68% 66.03% -5.2 13
2021-02-19 HB Koge L 1-3 1305 1383 33.32% 26.26% 40.42% -6.7 7
2021-02-19 @ Skive W 3-1 1383 1305 40.42% 26.26% 33.32% +6.7 25
2021-02-20 Fremad Amager L 1-2 1359 1450 31.57% 26.10% 42.33% -3.7 19
2021-02-20 @ Hvidovre W 2-1 1450 1359 42.33% 26.10% 31.57% +3.7 27
2021-02-20 Helsingor L 0-1 1439 1376 52.81% 23.97% 23.22% -5.8 22
2021-02-20 @ Hobro W 1-0 1376 1439 23.22% 23.97% 52.81% +5.8 26
2021-02-21 Esbjerg L 0-1 1429 1496 34.83% 26.35% 38.82% -4.2 27
2021-02-21 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1496 1429 38.82% 26.35% 34.83% +4.2 42
2021-02-21 Viborg L 0-1 1366 1528 23.72% 24.18% 52.10% -3.1 15
2021-02-21 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1528 1366 52.10% 24.18% 23.72% +3.1 44
2021-02-25 Silkeborg L 1-2 1500 1541 38.55% 26.36% 35.10% -4.3 42
2021-02-25 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1541 1500 35.10% 26.36% 38.55% +4.3 40
2021-02-26 Fredericia W 1-0 1382 1425 38.23% 26.37% 35.41% +4.3 29
2021-02-26 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1425 1382 35.41% 26.37% 38.23% -4.3 27
2021-02-26 Hvidovre W 1-0 1531 1355 66.60% 18.41% 15.00% +1.9 47
2021-02-26 @ Viborg L 0-1 1355 1531 15.00% 18.41% 66.60% -1.9 19
2021-02-27 Skive L 2-4 1359 1299 52.46% 24.08% 23.46% -8.5 13
2021-02-27 @ Kolding IF W 4-2 1299 1359 23.46% 24.08% 52.46% +8.5 10
2021-02-28 Hobro D 2-2 1454 1433 47.12% 25.38% 27.50% -0.3 28
2021-02-28 @ Fremad Amager D 2-2 1433 1454 27.50% 25.38% 47.12% +0.3 23
2021-02-28 Vendsyssel W 3-0 1390 1363 48.07% 25.19% 26.74% +9.4 28
2021-02-28 @ HB Koge L 0-3 1363 1390 26.74% 25.19% 48.07% -9.4 15
2021-03-05 Hobro D 1-1 1421 1434 42.45% 26.09% 31.46% -0.2 28
2021-03-05 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1434 1421 31.46% 26.09% 42.45% +0.3 24
2021-03-05 Viborg L 0-3 1307 1533 18.53% 21.35% 60.12% -6.5 10
2021-03-05 @ Skive W 3-0 1533 1307 60.12% 21.35% 18.53% +6.5 50
2021-03-06 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1496 1454 50.09% 24.72% 25.19% +6.1 45
2021-03-06 @ Esbjerg L 0-2 1454 1496 25.19% 24.72% 50.09% -6.1 28
2021-03-06 Kolding IF W 2-0 1353 1350 44.69% 25.80% 29.51% +7.0 22
2021-03-06 @ Hvidovre L 0-2 1350 1353 29.51% 25.80% 44.69% -7.0 13
2021-03-07 HB Koge W 2-0 1545 1399 63.09% 20.06% 16.85% +4.0 43
2021-03-07 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1399 1545 16.85% 20.06% 63.09% -4.0 28
2021-03-07 Helsingor L 1-2 1353 1387 39.57% 26.31% 34.11% -4.4 15
2021-03-07 @ Vendsyssel W 2-1 1387 1353 34.11% 26.31% 39.57% +4.4 32
2021-03-12 Hvidovre W 2-0 1391 1360 48.51% 25.09% 26.39% +6.4 35
2021-03-12 @ Helsingor L 0-2 1360 1391 26.39% 25.09% 48.51% -6.4 22
2021-03-13 Esbjerg W 2-0 1540 1502 49.49% 24.87% 25.64% +6.2 53
2021-03-13 @ Viborg L 0-2 1502 1540 25.64% 24.87% 49.49% -6.2 45
2021-03-13 Kolding IF D 1-1 1395 1343 51.36% 24.39% 24.25% -0.7 29
2021-03-13 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1343 1395 24.25% 24.39% 51.36% +0.7 14
2021-03-13 Silkeborg L 0-3 1434 1549 28.71% 25.65% 45.64% -10.0 24
2021-03-13 @ Hobro W 3-0 1549 1434 45.64% 25.65% 28.71% +10.0 46
2021-03-14 Fredericia L 1-2 1447 1420 48.01% 25.20% 26.79% -5.1 28
2021-03-14 @ Fremad Amager W 2-1 1420 1447 26.79% 25.20% 48.01% +5.1 31
2021-03-14 Skive L 0-1 1349 1301 50.86% 24.52% 24.61% -5.7 15
2021-03-14 @ Vendsyssel W 1-0 1301 1349 24.61% 24.52% 50.86% +5.7 13
2021-03-19 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1559 1442 59.62% 21.55% 18.83% +4.6 49
2021-03-19 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1442 1559 18.83% 21.55% 59.62% -4.6 28
2021-03-19 HB Koge D 0-0 1354 1395 38.52% 26.36% 35.12% -0.1 23
2021-03-19 @ Hvidovre D 0-0 1395 1354 35.12% 26.36% 38.52% +0.1 30
2021-03-19 Helsingor D 0-0 1306 1397 31.61% 26.10% 42.28% +0.3 14
2021-03-19 @ Skive D 0-0 1397 1306 42.28% 26.10% 31.61% -0.3 36
2021-03-19 Hobro W 1-0 1496 1424 53.95% 23.62% 22.43% +2.9 48
2021-03-19 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1424 1496 22.43% 23.62% 53.95% -2.9 24
2021-03-19 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1426 1343 55.34% 23.16% 21.50% -0.8 32
2021-03-19 @ Fredericia D 1-1 1343 1426 21.50% 23.16% 55.34% +0.8 16
2021-03-19 Viborg L 0-1 1344 1546 20.34% 22.52% 57.14% -2.6 14
2021-03-19 @ Kolding IF W 1-0 1546 1344 57.14% 22.52% 20.34% +2.6 56

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-04-03 Vendsyssel W 3-0 1438 1344 56.77% 22.65% 20.57% +7.3 3
2021-04-03 @ Fremad Amager L 0-3 1344 1438 20.57% 22.65% 56.77% -7.3 0
2021-04-04 Hobro W 1-0 1307 1421 28.75% 25.66% 45.59% +5.2 3
2021-04-04 @ Skive L 0-1 1421 1307 45.59% 25.66% 28.75% -5.2 0
2021-04-04 Hvidovre D 1-1 1342 1354 42.55% 26.08% 31.37% -0.3 1
2021-04-04 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1354 1342 31.37% 26.08% 42.55% +0.3 1
2021-04-04 Viborg D 1-1 1395 1549 24.56% 24.50% 50.94% +0.6 1
2021-04-04 @ HB Koge D 1-1 1549 1395 50.94% 24.50% 24.56% -0.6 1
2021-04-05 Esbjerg L 1-3 1425 1499 33.84% 26.30% 39.86% -6.8 0
2021-04-05 @ Fredericia W 3-1 1499 1425 39.86% 26.30% 33.84% +6.8 3
2021-04-05 Helsingor W 2-0 1564 1397 65.50% 18.94% 15.57% +3.7 3
2021-04-05 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1397 1564 15.57% 18.94% 65.50% -3.7 0
2021-04-09 HB Koge W 3-1 1393 1395 44.02% 25.90% 30.09% +6.2 3
2021-04-09 @ Helsingor L 1-3 1395 1393 30.09% 25.90% 44.02% -6.2 1
2021-04-09 Kolding IF L 1-2 1416 1341 54.36% 23.49% 22.15% -5.6 0
2021-04-09 @ Hobro W 2-1 1341 1416 22.15% 23.49% 54.36% +5.6 4
2021-04-10 Fredericia W 4-1 1548 1418 61.24% 20.87% 17.89% +5.3 4
2021-04-10 @ Viborg L 1-4 1418 1548 17.89% 20.87% 61.24% -5.3 0
2021-04-10 Fremad Amager W 3-0 1354 1445 31.62% 26.10% 42.28% +13.4 4
2021-04-10 @ Hvidovre L 0-3 1445 1354 42.28% 26.10% 31.62% -13.4 3
2021-04-10 Silkeborg D 1-1 1505 1567 35.50% 26.37% 38.13% +0.1 4
2021-04-10 @ Esbjerg D 1-1 1567 1505 38.13% 26.37% 35.50% -0.1 4
2021-04-11 Skive D 1-1 1337 1312 47.72% 25.26% 27.01% -0.5 1
2021-04-11 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1312 1337 27.01% 25.26% 47.72% +0.5 4
2021-04-16 Esbjerg W 4-0 1553 1505 50.82% 24.53% 24.64% +11.4 7
2021-04-16 @ Viborg L 0-4 1505 1553 24.64% 24.53% 50.82% -11.4 4
2021-04-16 Kolding IF W 2-1 1312 1347 39.41% 26.32% 34.27% +3.9 7
2021-04-16 @ Skive L 1-2 1347 1312 34.27% 26.32% 39.41% -4.0 4
2021-04-17 Hobro D 0-0 1432 1410 47.23% 25.36% 27.41% -0.5 4
2021-04-17 @ Fremad Amager D 0-0 1410 1432 27.41% 25.36% 47.23% +0.5 1
2021-04-17 Hvidovre W 1-0 1336 1368 39.86% 26.30% 33.85% +4.2 4
2021-04-17 @ Vendsyssel L 0-1 1368 1336 33.85% 26.30% 39.86% -4.2 4
2021-04-17 Silkeborg L 0-3 1389 1567 22.33% 23.57% 54.10% -7.9 1
2021-04-17 @ HB Koge W 3-0 1567 1389 54.10% 23.57% 22.33% +7.9 7
2021-04-18 Helsingor W 2-0 1413 1400 46.11% 25.57% 28.32% +6.8 3
2021-04-18 @ Fredericia L 0-2 1400 1413 28.32% 25.57% 46.11% -6.8 3
2021-04-23 Esbjerg W 1-0 1393 1494 30.32% 25.93% 43.74% +5.0 6
2021-04-23 @ Helsingor L 0-1 1494 1393 43.74% 25.93% 30.32% -5.0 4
2021-04-23 Vendsyssel D 1-1 1343 1340 44.65% 25.81% 29.55% -0.4 5
2021-04-23 @ Kolding IF D 1-1 1340 1343 29.55% 25.81% 44.65% +0.4 5
2021-04-23 Viborg W 2-0 1575 1565 45.74% 25.63% 28.62% +6.8 10
2021-04-23 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1565 1575 28.62% 25.63% 45.74% -6.8 7
2021-04-24 Fredericia L 1-2 1381 1419 38.88% 26.34% 34.78% -4.3 1
2021-04-24 @ HB Koge W 2-1 1419 1381 34.78% 26.34% 38.88% +4.3 6
2021-04-24 Hvidovre D 1-1 1411 1363 50.78% 24.55% 24.67% -0.6 2
2021-04-24 @ Hobro D 1-1 1363 1411 24.67% 24.55% 50.78% +0.6 5
2021-04-25 Skive W 2-0 1431 1316 59.38% 21.65% 18.97% +4.6 7
2021-04-25 @ Fremad Amager L 0-2 1316 1431 18.97% 21.65% 59.38% -4.6 7
2021-04-29 HB Koge W 1-0 1489 1377 59.06% 21.78% 19.16% +2.5 7
2021-04-29 @ Esbjerg L 0-1 1377 1489 19.16% 21.78% 59.06% -2.5 1
2021-04-30 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1343 1436 31.34% 26.07% 42.59% +4.7 8
2021-04-30 @ Kolding IF L 1-2 1436 1343 42.59% 26.07% 31.34% -4.7 7
2021-04-30 Helsingor L 0-3 1558 1398 64.76% 19.29% 15.96% -18.7 7
2021-04-30 @ Viborg W 3-0 1398 1558 15.96% 19.29% 64.76% +18.7 9
2021-05-01 Skive W 3-0 1364 1312 51.42% 24.37% 24.20% +8.6 8
2021-05-01 @ Hvidovre L 0-3 1312 1364 24.20% 24.37% 51.42% -8.6 7
2021-05-02 Hobro D 1-1 1341 1410 34.43% 26.33% 39.24% +0.1 6
2021-05-02 @ Vendsyssel D 1-1 1410 1341 39.24% 26.33% 34.43% -0.1 3
2021-05-02 Silkeborg L 0-1 1424 1582 24.15% 24.35% 51.50% -3.1 6
2021-05-02 @ Fredericia W 1-0 1582 1424 51.50% 24.35% 24.15% +3.1 13
2021-05-05 Kolding IF L 0-2 1373 1347 47.80% 25.25% 26.95% -10.2 8
2021-05-05 @ Hvidovre W 2-0 1347 1373 26.95% 25.25% 47.80% +10.2 11
2021-05-06 Esbjerg W 2-0 1585 1492 56.75% 22.66% 20.59% +5.0 16
2021-05-06 @ Silkeborg L 0-2 1492 1585 20.59% 22.66% 56.75% -5.0 7
2021-05-06 Fremad Amager W 2-0 1410 1431 41.35% 26.19% 32.46% +7.6 6
2021-05-06 @ Hobro L 0-2 1431 1410 32.46% 26.19% 41.35% -7.6 7
2021-05-06 Vendsyssel W 2-1 1303 1341 38.95% 26.34% 34.71% +4.0 10
2021-05-06 @ Skive L 1-2 1341 1303 34.71% 26.34% 38.95% -4.0 6
2021-05-07 HB Koge W 3-0 1421 1374 50.61% 24.59% 24.80% +8.8 9
2021-05-07 @ Fredericia L 0-3 1374 1421 24.80% 24.59% 50.61% -8.8 1
2021-05-07 Viborg L 0-3 1417 1539 27.84% 25.46% 46.69% -9.7 9
2021-05-07 @ Helsingor W 3-0 1539 1417 46.69% 25.46% 27.84% +9.7 10
2021-05-10 Fredericia L 1-2 1486 1429 52.05% 24.20% 23.75% -5.4 7
2021-05-10 @ Esbjerg W 2-1 1429 1486 23.75% 24.20% 52.05% +5.4 12
2021-05-11 Helsingor L 0-5 1366 1407 38.45% 26.36% 35.19% -20.1 1
2021-05-11 @ HB Koge W 5-0 1407 1366 35.19% 26.36% 38.45% +20.1 12
2021-05-11 Kolding IF W 3-0 1337 1357 41.40% 26.19% 32.42% +11.0 9
2021-05-11 @ Vendsyssel L 0-3 1357 1337 32.42% 26.19% 41.40% -11.0 11
2021-05-11 Skive W 3-0 1418 1307 58.87% 21.85% 19.27% +6.8 9
2021-05-11 @ Hobro L 0-3 1307 1418 19.27% 21.85% 58.87% -6.8 10
2021-05-12 Hvidovre L 0-1 1423 1362 52.56% 24.05% 23.39% -5.8 7
2021-05-12 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1362 1423 23.39% 24.05% 52.56% +5.8 11
2021-05-12 Silkeborg D 3-3 1549 1590 38.44% 26.36% 35.20% -0.0 11
2021-05-12 @ Viborg D 3-3 1590 1549 35.20% 26.36% 38.44% +0.0 17
2021-05-14 Hobro D 0-0 1346 1425 33.27% 26.26% 40.47% +0.2 12
2021-05-14 @ Kolding IF D 0-0 1425 1346 40.47% 26.26% 33.27% -0.2 10
2021-05-15 HB Koge W 4-1 1590 1346 73.81% 14.69% 11.50% +3.1 20
2021-05-15 @ Silkeborg L 1-4 1346 1590 11.50% 14.69% 73.81% -3.1 1
2021-05-15 Vendsyssel D 2-2 1368 1348 47.12% 25.38% 27.50% -0.3 12
2021-05-15 @ Hvidovre D 2-2 1348 1368 27.50% 25.38% 47.12% +0.4 10
2021-05-15 Viborg L 0-4 1481 1549 34.69% 26.34% 38.97% -15.1 7
2021-05-15 @ Esbjerg W 4-0 1549 1481 38.97% 26.34% 34.69% +15.1 14
2021-05-16 Fredericia W 2-1 1427 1435 43.19% 26.00% 30.81% +3.6 15
2021-05-16 @ Helsingor L 1-2 1435 1427 30.81% 26.00% 43.19% -3.6 12
2021-05-16 Fremad Amager W 1-0 1300 1418 28.44% 25.60% 45.96% +5.2 13
2021-05-16 @ Skive L 0-1 1418 1300 45.96% 25.60% 28.44% -5.2 7
2021-05-21 Esbjerg L 1-2 1342 1466 27.73% 25.44% 46.83% -3.3 1
2021-05-21 @ HB Koge W 2-1 1466 1342 46.83% 25.44% 27.73% +3.3 10
2021-05-21 Silkeborg D 3-3 1431 1593 23.72% 24.18% 52.09% +0.4 16
2021-05-21 @ Helsingor D 3-3 1593 1431 52.09% 24.18% 23.72% -0.4 21
2021-05-21 Viborg L 0-3 1431 1564 26.73% 25.19% 48.08% -9.4 12
2021-05-21 @ Fredericia W 3-0 1564 1431 48.08% 25.19% 26.73% +9.4 17
2021-05-22 Hvidovre D 2-2 1306 1368 35.43% 26.37% 38.20% +0.1 14
2021-05-22 @ Skive D 2-2 1368 1306 38.20% 26.37% 35.43% -0.1 13
2021-05-22 Kolding IF L 0-1 1412 1347 53.19% 23.86% 22.95% -5.9 7
2021-05-22 @ Fremad Amager W 1-0 1347 1412 22.95% 23.86% 53.19% +5.9 15
2021-05-23 Vendsyssel L 0-2 1424 1348 54.54% 23.43% 22.03% -11.3 10
2021-05-23 @ Hobro W 2-0 1348 1424 22.03% 23.43% 54.54% +11.3 13
2021-05-26 Fredericia W 2-1 1593 1422 66.01% 18.69% 15.30% +1.8 24
2021-05-26 @ Silkeborg L 1-2 1422 1593 15.30% 18.69% 66.01% -1.8 12
2021-05-26 HB Koge W 4-0 1573 1339 72.77% 15.25% 11.99% +5.1 20
2021-05-26 @ Viborg L 0-4 1339 1573 11.99% 15.25% 72.77% -5.1 1
2021-05-26 Helsingor D 2-2 1469 1431 49.54% 24.86% 25.61% -0.4 11
2021-05-26 @ Esbjerg D 2-2 1431 1469 25.61% 24.86% 49.54% +0.4 17
2021-05-27 Fremad Amager W 2-1 1360 1406 37.61% 26.38% 36.01% +4.1 16
2021-05-27 @ Vendsyssel L 1-2 1406 1360 36.01% 26.38% 37.61% -4.1 7
2021-05-27 Hobro W 4-0 1368 1413 37.87% 26.37% 35.75% +15.5 16
2021-05-27 @ Hvidovre L 0-4 1413 1368 35.75% 26.37% 37.87% -15.5 10
2021-05-27 Skive W 2-0 1352 1306 50.69% 24.57% 24.74% +6.0 18
2021-05-27 @ Kolding IF L 0-2 1306 1352 24.74% 24.57% 50.69% -6.0 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-04-30 15.96% Helsingor 1398 3 @ Viborg 1558 0
2 2020-10-20 17.45% Hvidovre 1338 2 @ Esbjerg 1475 0
3 2020-12-06 21.17% Hvidovre 1365 1 @ Fredericia 1452 0
4 2020-11-22 21.47% HB Koge 1379 1 @ Fremad Amager 1462 0
5 2020-11-29 21.62% Hvidovre 1360 4 @ Hobro 1441 3
6 2021-05-23 22.03% Vendsyssel 1348 2 @ Hobro 1424 0
7 2021-04-09 22.15% Kolding IF 1341 2 @ Hobro 1416 1
8 2021-05-22 22.95% Kolding IF 1347 1 @ Fremad Amager 1412 0
9 2021-02-20 23.22% Helsingor 1376 1 @ Hobro 1439 0
10 2021-05-12 23.39% Hvidovre 1362 1 @ Fremad Amager 1423 0
11 2021-02-27 23.46% Skive 1299 4 @ Kolding IF 1359 2
12 2020-12-06 23.53% @ Vendsyssel 1358 2 Silkeborg 1522 1
13 2021-05-10 23.75% Fredericia 1429 2 @ Esbjerg 1486 1
14 2020-10-04 24.00% Helsingor 1384 2 @ Fredericia 1438 1
15 2020-12-12 24.09% Skive 1318 2 @ Hvidovre 1371 1
16 2021-03-14 24.61% Skive 1301 1 @ Vendsyssel 1349 0
17 2020-10-04 25.31% Hvidovre 1342 2 @ Vendsyssel 1383 1
18 2021-03-14 26.79% Fredericia 1420 2 @ Fremad Amager 1447 1
19 2021-05-05 26.95% Kolding IF 1347 2 @ Hvidovre 1373 0
20 2020-10-22 27.94% Viborg 1495 2 @ Silkeborg 1511 1
21 2020-09-11 27.95% @ Helsingor 1363 4 Silkeborg 1485 2
22 2020-10-31 28.19% Fremad Amager 1444 4 @ Hobro 1458 0
23 2021-05-16 28.44% @ Skive 1300 1 Fremad Amager 1418 0
24 2020-09-15 28.50% Helsingor 1371 3 @ Hvidovre 1383 0
25 2021-04-04 28.75% @ Skive 1307 1 Hobro 1421 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-05-11 20.14 Helsingor 5 1407 35.19% @ HB Koge 0 1366 38.45% 26.36%
2 2020-10-31 18.83 Fremad Amager 4 1444 28.19% @ Hobro 0 1458 46.27% 25.54%
3 2020-09-12 18.81 @ Fremad Amager 6 1413 46.15% Vendsyssel 0 1400 28.28% 25.56%
4 2021-04-30 18.71 Helsingor 3 1398 15.96% @ Viborg 0 1558 64.76% 19.29%
5 2021-05-27 15.48 @ Hvidovre 4 1368 37.87% Hobro 0 1413 35.75% 26.37%
6 2021-05-15 15.13 Viborg 4 1549 38.97% @ Esbjerg 0 1481 34.69% 26.34%
7 2020-09-15 14.31 Helsingor 3 1371 28.50% @ Hvidovre 0 1383 45.89% 25.61%
8 2020-09-30 13.83 Silkeborg 4 1483 43.08% @ Kolding IF 0 1387 30.90% 26.02%
9 2020-09-15 13.47 @ Vendsyssel 3 1381 31.50% Hobro 0 1473 42.41% 26.09%
10 2021-04-10 13.44 @ Hvidovre 3 1354 31.62% Fremad Amager 0 1445 42.28% 26.10%
11 2020-11-28 13.35 Fredericia 4 1438 44.60% @ Skive 0 1331 29.59% 25.81%
12 2020-10-03 12.55 Fremad Amager 3 1440 35.03% @ HB Koge 0 1400 38.61% 26.35%
13 2020-10-20 12.47 Hvidovre 2 1338 17.45% @ Esbjerg 0 1475 62.01% 20.54%
14 2020-10-25 12.20 Silkeborg 3 1506 36.45% @ Fremad Amager 0 1456 37.16% 26.38%
15 2020-09-27 11.44 Viborg 3 1474 39.60% @ HB Koge 0 1402 34.09% 26.31%
16 2020-10-01 11.40 Fredericia 3 1427 39.73% @ Hvidovre 0 1354 33.97% 26.31%
17 2021-04-16 11.37 @ Viborg 4 1553 50.82% Esbjerg 0 1505 24.64% 24.53%
18 2021-05-23 11.29 Vendsyssel 2 1348 22.03% @ Hobro 0 1424 54.54% 23.43%
19 2021-05-11 10.99 @ Vendsyssel 3 1337 41.40% Kolding IF 0 1357 32.42% 26.19%
20 2020-09-20 10.98 @ Fremad Amager 4 1426 52.09% Hvidovre 0 1368 23.73% 24.19%
21 2020-09-18 10.60 @ Helsingor 3 1385 43.02% Vendsyssel 0 1394 30.96% 26.02%
22 2021-05-05 10.18 Kolding IF 2 1347 26.95% @ Hvidovre 0 1373 47.80% 25.25%
23 2021-02-12 10.11 @ Viborg 4 1518 54.88% Fredericia 0 1439 21.80% 23.32%
24 2021-03-13 9.96 Silkeborg 3 1549 45.64% @ Hobro 0 1434 28.71% 25.65%
25 2021-02-12 9.76 Helsingor 2 1367 28.99% @ Kolding IF 0 1374 45.31% 25.71%