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2021-22 First Division B Season

112 games

Final

Promoted

Westerlo

56 pts

Relegated

Royal Excel Mouscron

via dissolution

Biggest Overachiever

RWDM 47

9.51 points above expected

49 points · 39.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Excelsior Virton

10.14 points below expected

21 points · 31.14 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Westerlo Promoted 28 17 5 6 56 52 29 +23 50.86 +5.14
2 RWDM 47 28 14 7 7 49 41 33 +8 39.49 +9.51
3 Waasland-Beveren 28 12 5 11 41 47 40 +7 42.61 -1.61
4 Deinze 28 9 12 7 39 47 39 +8 40.14 -1.14
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 28 9 9 10 36 39 42 -3 32.76 +3.24
6 Lommel 28 9 8 11 35 39 40 -1 35.03 -0.03
7 Royal Excel Mouscron Dissolved 28 8 6 14 30 31 45 -14 38.19 -8.19
8 Excelsior Virton 28 5 6 17 21 24 52 -28 31.14 -10.14

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Westerlo 1591 56 50.86 +5.14 79.2% 26 39 46 51 56 62 75
Deinze 1524 39 40.14 -1.14 46.8% 12 29 35 40 45 52 67
RWDM 47 1515 49 39.49 +9.51 92.6% 18 28 35 39 44 51 65
Waasland-Beveren 1496 41 42.61 -1.61 43.5% 16 31 38 43 47 54 66
Lommel 1480 35 35.03 -0.03 53.6% 12 24 30 35 40 47 59
Lierse Kempenzonen 1442 36 32.76 +3.24 71.4% 9 22 28 33 37 44 60
Royal Excel Mouscron 1416 30 38.19 -8.19 12.8% 13 27 34 38 43 49 65
Excelsior Virton 1328 21 31.14 -10.14 6.2% 10 21 27 31 35 42 57

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DEI EV LK LOM R4 REM WAA WES
Deinze —
3-1-0
6.87
0-3-1
6.54
0-3-1
6.26
1-1-2
5.62
2-1-1
5.82
1-2-1
5.08
2-1-1
3.89
Excelsior Virton
0-1-3
4.22
 —
1-2-1
5.48
2-0-2
4.79
0-1-3
4.28
1-1-2
4.76
0-0-4
4.14
1-1-2
3.59
Lierse Kempenzonen
1-3-0
4.54
1-2-1
5.60
 —
1-1-2
5.48
1-1-2
4.81
0-2-2
4.81
4-0-0
4.04
1-0-3
3.42
Lommel
1-3-0
4.81
2-0-2
6.29
2-1-1
5.58
 —
1-1-2
5.27
2-1-1
4.96
0-2-2
4.67
1-0-3
3.42
RWDM 47
2-1-1
5.44
3-1-0
6.82
2-1-1
6.26
2-1-1
5.80
 —
3-1-0
5.52
2-0-2
5.41
0-2-2
4.14
Royal Excel Mouscron
1-1-2
5.25
2-1-1
6.34
2-2-0
6.26
1-1-2
6.11
0-1-3
5.54
 —
2-0-2
4.86
0-0-4
3.83
Waasland-Beveren
1-2-1
5.98
4-0-0
6.95
0-0-4
7.04
2-2-0
6.40
2-0-2
5.65
2-0-2
6.21
 —
1-1-2
4.52
Westerlo
1-1-2
7.20
2-1-1
7.56
3-0-1
7.68
3-0-1
7.69
2-2-0
6.93
4-0-0
7.25
2-1-1
6.55
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +10.4
Allowed 0.97 -15.2
Differential 0.92 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%5.80%8.48%4.02%0.89%—24.55%
15.80%9.82%9.38%3.57%0.89%0.45%29.91%
28.48%9.38%8.04%2.23%—0.45%28.57%
34.02%3.57%2.23%2.68%0.89%—13.39%
40.89%0.89%—0.89%——2.68%
5+—0.45%0.45%———0.89%
Total24.55%29.91%28.57%13.39%2.68%0.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.15 1.67
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
1—14.29%14.29%—3.57%—32.14%
27.14%10.71%17.86%———35.71%
310.71%3.57%—7.14%——21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%35.71%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.39 +0.29
SD 0.94 1.03 1.46
CV 0.56 0.74 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%—46.43%
13.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
3—3.57%——3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%28.57%32.14%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.86 -1.00
SD 0.97 1.11 1.59
CV 1.13 0.60 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
110.71%10.71%7.14%7.14%—3.57%39.29%
27.14%7.14%14.29%3.57%——32.14%
3—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%14.29%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 0.99 1.20 1.52
CV 0.71 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%10.71%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
37.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.43 -0.04
SD 1.07 1.03 1.48
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
114.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
210.71%7.14%7.14%———25.00%
33.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total39.29%21.43%25.00%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.18 +0.29
SD 1.07 1.19 1.54
CV 0.73 1.01 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%—35.71%
13.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%——25.00%
210.71%10.71%7.14%——3.57%32.14%
33.57%———3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.61 -0.50
SD 0.99 1.47 1.77
CV 0.90 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%14.29%3.57%——25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
23.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
33.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
47.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.43 +0.25
SD 1.42 1.03 1.92
CV 0.84 0.72 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%—3.57%——14.29%
17.14%7.14%10.71%———25.00%
221.43%14.29%7.14%———42.86%
33.57%—3.57%———7.14%
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
Total35.71%32.14%25.00%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.04 +0.82
SD 1.41 0.96 1.59
CV 0.76 0.93 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 RWDM 47 49 39.49 +9.51
2 Westerlo 56 50.86 +5.14
3 Lierse Kempenzonen 36 32.76 +3.24
4 Lommel 35 35.03 -0.03
5 Deinze 39 40.14 -1.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Excelsior Virton 21 31.14 -10.14
2 Royal Excel Mouscron 30 38.19 -8.19
3 Waasland-Beveren 41 42.61 -1.61
4 Deinze 39 40.14 -1.14
5 Lommel 35 35.03 -0.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Oct 29 – Nov 28 1 in 85
2 Lommel 3 Apr 2 – Apr 16 1 in 26
3 Lierse Kempenzonen 2 Apr 1 – Apr 9 1 in 18
4 RWDM 47 3 Dec 4 – Jan 21 1 in 16
5 Westerlo 4 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Aug 14 – Sep 10 1 in 78
2 Excelsior Virton 7 Jan 23 – Mar 6 1 in 55
3 Westerlo 2 Mar 11 – Mar 16 1 in 53
4 Lommel 3 Oct 24 – Nov 5 1 in 25
5 RWDM 47 3 Sep 12 – Sep 25 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel 9 Feb 13 – Apr 16 1 in 205
2 RWDM 47 8 Oct 22 – Jan 21 1 in 52
3 Westerlo 9 Aug 15 – Oct 24 1 in 24
4 Deinze 6 Aug 13 – Sep 26 1 in 23
5 Royal Excel Mouscron 5 Oct 22 – Nov 28 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel 11 Oct 24 – Feb 6 1 in 89
2 Royal Excel Mouscron 9 Aug 14 – Oct 22 1 in 64
3 Excelsior Virton 12 Nov 21 – Mar 6 1 in 37
4 Lierse Kempenzonen 7 Nov 7 – Jan 23 1 in 17
5 Deinze 5 Sep 19 – Oct 23 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Westerlo63.44%19.21%8.96%4.51%2.26%1.14%0.32%0.16%
RWDM 476.59%15.89%17.81%17.38%15.29%12.50%9.10%5.44%
Waasland-Beveren13.68%25.10%19.48%15.02%11.90%7.56%4.68%2.58%
Deinze7.94%17.26%18.40%17.36%15.32%11.15%8.17%4.40%
Lierse Kempenzonen0.88%3.73%6.49%9.54%12.85%18.28%22.31%25.92%
Lommel2.04%6.50%9.89%12.92%15.17%18.63%18.23%16.62%
Royal Excel Mouscron5.02%10.52%15.10%16.41%16.89%14.94%13.10%8.02%
Excelsior Virton0.41%1.79%3.87%6.86%10.32%15.80%24.09%36.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.04%
Slight Edge
41.07%25.89%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.98 Elo pts.
313 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
12468
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Westerlo, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.25/gm
Tight Race
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.45 * Some Luck: 5.45 to 8.18 * Lucky: 8.18 to 10.9 * Wild Swing: 10.9 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.76 * Off: 1.76 to 2.35 * Way Off: 2.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.63 * A Surprise: 0.63 to 1.01 * Several Surprises: 1.01 to 1.39 * Many Surprises: 1.39 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.12 points
Some Luck
06.8117
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.473
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.58%
RWDM 47
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.22%
Excelsior Virton
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.61

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.36
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.84
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.24
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Shaky Favorites
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.47
Overconfident
0.3054831.001.69452
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1610.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Lost promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Westerlo 63.44% 19.21% 17.19% 0.16%
Waasland-Beveren 13.68% 25.10% 58.64% 2.58%
Deinze 7.94% 17.26% 70.40% 4.40%
RWDM 47 6.59% 15.89% 72.08% 5.44%
Royal Excel Mouscron 5.02% 10.52% 76.44% 8.02%
Lommel 2.04% 6.50% 74.84% 16.62%
Lierse Kempenzonen 0.88% 3.73% 69.47% 25.92%
Excelsior Virton 0.41% 1.79% 60.94% 36.86%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-08-13 Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1444 1396 47.51% 23.23% 29.26% -1.1 1
2021-08-13 @ Deinze D 1-1 1396 1444 29.26% 23.23% 47.51% +1.1 1
2021-08-14 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1460 1529 31.42% 23.33% 45.24% +21.5 3
2021-08-14 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1529 1460 45.24% 23.33% 31.42% -21.5 0
2021-08-15 Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1458 1494 35.98% 23.45% 40.57% -9.8 0
2021-08-15 @ Lommel W 3-2 1494 1458 40.57% 23.45% 35.98% +9.8 3
2021-08-15 Westerlo L 0-2 1525 1500 44.44% 23.36% 32.19% -24.5 0
2021-08-15 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1500 1525 32.19% 23.36% 44.44% +24.5 3
2021-08-20 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1524 1482 46.81% 23.26% 29.93% -1.2 4
2021-08-20 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1482 1524 29.93% 23.26% 46.81% +1.2 4
2021-08-21 Lommel L 0-1 1508 1449 48.93% 23.14% 27.93% -14.1 0
2021-08-21 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1449 1508 27.93% 23.14% 48.93% +14.1 3
2021-08-22 Deinze L 0-2 1503 1443 49.07% 23.13% 27.79% -26.6 3
2021-08-22 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1443 1503 27.79% 23.13% 49.07% +26.6 4
2021-08-22 Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1397 1501 27.20% 23.09% 49.71% +26.9 4
2021-08-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1501 1397 49.71% 23.09% 27.20% -26.9 0
2021-08-27 Excelsior Virton D 0-0 1483 1474 42.25% 23.43% 34.32% -0.5 5
2021-08-27 @ RWDM 47 D 0-0 1474 1483 34.32% 23.43% 42.25% +0.5 1
2021-08-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1523 1424 53.80% 22.74% 23.46% +6.9 7
2021-08-28 @ Westerlo L 2-3 1424 1523 23.46% 22.74% 53.80% -6.9 4
2021-08-29 Deinze D 2-2 1463 1470 39.98% 23.46% 36.56% -0.2 4
2021-08-29 @ Lommel D 2-2 1470 1463 36.56% 23.46% 39.98% +0.2 5
2021-08-29 Waasland-Beveren L 0-4 1494 1477 43.32% 23.40% 33.28% -45.4 0
2021-08-29 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-0 1477 1494 33.28% 23.40% 43.32% +45.4 6
2021-09-10 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1470 1448 43.97% 23.38% 32.65% +16.6 8
2021-09-10 @ Deinze L 1-3 1448 1470 32.65% 23.38% 43.97% -16.6 0
2021-09-11 Lommel W 2-1 1474 1462 42.62% 23.42% 33.96% +9.9 4
2021-09-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-2 1462 1474 33.96% 23.42% 42.62% -9.9 4
2021-09-12 RWDM 47 W 4-1 1417 1482 31.93% 23.35% 44.72% +30.1 7
2021-09-12 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-4 1482 1417 44.72% 23.35% 31.93% -30.1 5
2021-09-12 Westerlo L 0-2 1522 1530 39.85% 23.46% 36.69% -22.4 6
2021-09-12 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1530 1522 36.69% 23.46% 39.85% +22.4 10
2021-09-17 Waasland-Beveren L 1-3 1452 1500 34.26% 23.42% 42.32% -17.2 5
2021-09-17 @ RWDM 47 W 3-1 1500 1452 42.32% 23.42% 34.26% +17.3 9
2021-09-18 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1432 1484 33.60% 23.41% 42.99% +0.6 1
2021-09-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-1 1484 1432 42.99% 23.41% 33.60% -0.6 5
2021-09-19 Deinze D 2-2 1553 1486 49.81% 23.08% 27.10% -1.1 11
2021-09-19 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1486 1553 27.10% 23.08% 49.81% +1.1 9
2021-09-19 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1453 1447 41.73% 23.44% 34.84% +17.5 7
2021-09-19 @ Lommel L 1-3 1447 1453 34.84% 23.44% 41.73% -17.5 7
2021-09-24 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1430 1517 29.12% 23.22% 47.66% +13.0 10
2021-09-24 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1517 1430 47.66% 23.22% 29.12% -13.0 9
2021-09-25 Lommel L 1-2 1435 1470 35.98% 23.45% 40.56% -10.4 5
2021-09-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-1 1470 1435 40.56% 23.45% 35.98% +10.3 10
2021-09-26 Deinze D 1-1 1484 1487 40.42% 23.46% 36.12% -0.3 6
2021-09-26 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1487 1484 36.12% 23.46% 40.42% +0.3 10
2021-09-26 Westerlo L 1-2 1432 1551 25.39% 22.94% 51.67% -7.8 1
2021-09-26 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-1 1551 1432 51.67% 22.94% 25.39% +7.8 14
2021-10-01 Lommel W 2-0 1559 1480 51.38% 22.96% 25.65% +15.8 17
2021-10-01 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1480 1559 25.65% 22.96% 51.38% -15.7 10
2021-10-02 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-2 1443 1424 43.52% 23.39% 33.08% -0.5 11
2021-10-02 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1424 1443 33.08% 23.39% 43.52% +0.5 2
2021-10-03 Excelsior Virton W 4-3 1504 1483 43.86% 23.38% 32.75% +8.9 12
2021-10-03 @ Waasland-Beveren L 3-4 1483 1504 32.75% 23.38% 43.86% -8.9 6
2021-10-03 RWDM 47 L 1-2 1488 1425 49.43% 23.11% 27.45% -13.4 10
2021-10-03 @ Deinze W 2-1 1425 1488 27.45% 23.11% 49.43% +13.4 8
2021-10-15 Waasland-Beveren D 0-0 1474 1513 35.49% 23.45% 41.06% +0.4 11
2021-10-15 @ Deinze D 0-0 1513 1474 41.06% 23.45% 35.49% -0.4 13
2021-10-16 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1474 1442 45.40% 23.33% 31.27% +9.3 9
2021-10-16 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-2 1442 1474 31.27% 23.33% 45.40% -9.3 11
2021-10-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-0 1465 1425 46.42% 23.28% 30.30% +26.2 13
2021-10-17 @ Lommel L 0-3 1425 1465 30.30% 23.28% 46.42% -26.2 2
2021-10-17 Westerlo L 1-2 1438 1575 23.48% 22.74% 53.78% -7.3 8
2021-10-17 @ RWDM 47 W 2-1 1575 1438 53.78% 22.74% 23.48% +7.3 20
2021-10-22 RWDM 47 D 1-1 1399 1431 36.42% 23.46% 40.13% +0.2 3
2021-10-22 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-1 1431 1399 40.13% 23.46% 36.42% -0.2 9
2021-10-23 Deinze D 2-2 1433 1475 35.06% 23.44% 41.50% +0.3 12
2021-10-23 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1475 1433 41.50% 23.44% 35.06% -0.3 12
2021-10-24 Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1582 1484 53.74% 22.74% 23.52% +14.6 23
2021-10-24 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1484 1582 23.52% 22.74% 53.74% -14.6 9
2021-10-24 Lommel W 2-1 1513 1491 43.99% 23.38% 32.63% +9.6 16
2021-10-24 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-2 1491 1513 32.63% 23.38% 43.99% -9.6 13
2021-10-29 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1469 1399 50.32% 23.05% 26.64% -27.2 9
2021-10-29 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1399 1469 26.64% 23.05% 50.32% +27.2 6
2021-10-30 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1522 1433 52.60% 22.86% 24.55% -24.5 16
2021-10-30 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-1 1433 1522 24.55% 22.86% 52.60% +24.5 15
2021-10-31 RWDM 47 L 2-3 1481 1430 47.87% 23.21% 28.92% -12.3 13
2021-10-31 @ Lommel W 3-2 1430 1481 28.92% 23.21% 47.87% +12.3 12
2021-10-31 Westerlo W 2-1 1474 1597 25.04% 22.91% 52.06% +14.0 15
2021-10-31 @ Deinze L 1-2 1597 1474 52.06% 22.91% 25.04% -14.0 23
2021-11-05 Excelsior Virton L 1-3 1469 1442 44.72% 23.35% 31.93% -21.3 13
2021-11-05 @ Lommel W 3-1 1442 1469 31.93% 23.35% 44.72% +21.3 12
2021-11-06 Deinze W 2-0 1426 1488 32.28% 23.37% 44.35% +24.4 9
2021-11-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1488 1426 44.35% 23.37% 32.28% -24.4 15
2021-11-07 Lierse Kempenzonen D 3-3 1443 1458 38.85% 23.47% 37.68% -0.0 13
2021-11-07 @ RWDM 47 D 3-3 1458 1443 37.68% 23.47% 38.85% +0.0 16
2021-11-07 Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1583 1498 52.15% 22.90% 24.95% -1.7 24
2021-11-07 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1498 1583 24.95% 22.90% 52.15% +1.7 17
2021-11-19 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1499 1450 47.63% 23.22% 29.14% -25.9 17
2021-11-19 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1450 1499 29.14% 23.22% 47.63% +25.9 12
2021-11-20 Westerlo L 1-5 1458 1581 24.93% 22.89% 52.17% -24.3 16
2021-11-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-1 1581 1458 52.17% 22.89% 24.93% +24.3 27
2021-11-21 Lommel D 3-3 1464 1448 43.25% 23.40% 33.35% -0.4 16
2021-11-21 @ Deinze D 3-3 1448 1464 33.35% 23.40% 43.25% +0.4 14
2021-11-21 RWDM 47 L 0-2 1463 1443 43.81% 23.38% 32.80% -24.2 12
2021-11-21 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1443 1463 32.80% 23.38% 43.81% +24.2 16
2021-11-26 Waasland-Beveren L 0-3 1439 1474 36.06% 23.45% 40.49% -30.1 12
2021-11-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1474 1439 40.49% 23.45% 36.06% +30.1 20
2021-11-27 Westerlo L 0-1 1448 1606 21.44% 22.47% 56.09% -7.2 14
2021-11-27 @ Lommel W 1-0 1606 1448 56.09% 22.47% 21.44% +7.2 30
2021-11-28 Deinze D 2-2 1467 1464 41.43% 23.44% 35.13% -0.3 17
2021-11-28 @ RWDM 47 D 2-2 1464 1467 35.13% 23.44% 41.43% +0.3 17
2021-11-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1476 1433 46.82% 23.26% 29.92% +8.9 15
2021-11-28 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1433 1476 29.92% 23.26% 46.82% -9.0 16
2021-12-03 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1464 1409 48.40% 23.18% 28.42% +24.9 20
2021-12-03 @ Deinze L 0-3 1409 1464 28.42% 23.18% 48.40% -24.9 12
2021-12-04 RWDM 47 L 2-3 1504 1467 46.06% 23.30% 30.64% -12.0 20
2021-12-04 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-2 1467 1504 30.64% 23.30% 46.06% +11.9 20
2021-12-05 Lommel D 2-2 1424 1441 38.64% 23.47% 37.89% -0.0 17
2021-12-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1441 1424 37.89% 23.47% 38.64% +0.0 15
2021-12-05 Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-3 1613 1485 56.96% 22.36% 20.68% +6.0 33
2021-12-05 @ Westerlo L 3-4 1485 1613 20.68% 22.36% 56.96% -6.0 15
2021-12-11 Lommel W 2-1 1479 1441 46.21% 23.29% 30.49% +9.1 18
2021-12-11 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1441 1479 30.49% 23.29% 46.21% -9.1 15
2021-12-12 Deinze W 4-1 1492 1489 41.39% 23.44% 35.17% +24.9 23
2021-12-12 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-4 1489 1492 35.17% 23.44% 41.39% -24.9 20
2021-12-12 Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1384 1424 35.24% 23.44% 41.32% +0.3 13
2021-12-12 @ Excelsior Virton D 2-2 1424 1384 41.32% 23.44% 35.24% -0.3 18
2021-12-17 Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1432 1517 29.43% 23.24% 47.33% +1.1 16
2021-12-17 @ Lommel D 1-1 1517 1432 47.33% 23.24% 29.43% -1.1 24
2021-12-18 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-2 1464 1488 37.50% 23.47% 39.03% +0.1 21
2021-12-18 @ Deinze D 2-2 1488 1464 39.03% 23.47% 37.50% -0.1 19
2021-12-19 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1619 1384 67.02% 20.35% 12.63% -3.7 34
2021-12-19 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1384 1619 12.63% 20.35% 67.02% +3.7 14
2021-12-19 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1424 1478 33.35% 23.40% 43.24% -10.4 18
2021-12-19 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1478 1424 43.24% 23.40% 33.35% +10.3 23
2022-01-21 Lommel W 2-0 1489 1433 48.51% 23.17% 28.32% +17.1 26
2022-01-21 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1433 1489 28.32% 23.17% 48.51% -17.1 16
2022-01-23 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1488 1414 50.83% 23.01% 26.16% -1.8 20
2022-01-23 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-0 1414 1488 26.16% 23.01% 50.83% +1.8 19
2022-01-23 Waasland-Beveren L 0-4 1388 1516 24.49% 22.85% 52.66% -28.7 14
2022-01-23 @ Excelsior Virton W 4-0 1516 1388 52.66% 22.85% 24.49% +28.7 27
2022-01-25 Westerlo L 0-2 1506 1615 26.55% 23.04% 50.41% -16.2 26
2022-01-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-0 1615 1506 50.41% 23.04% 26.55% +16.2 37
2022-01-28 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1416 1416 41.02% 23.45% 35.54% -12.2 16
2022-01-28 @ Lommel W 1-0 1416 1416 35.54% 23.45% 41.02% +12.2 22
2022-01-29 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1464 1359 54.44% 22.67% 22.89% +7.1 24
2022-01-29 @ Deinze L 1-2 1359 1464 22.89% 22.67% 54.44% -7.2 14
2022-01-30 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1490 1486 41.44% 23.44% 35.12% +20.3 29
2022-01-30 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1486 1490 35.12% 23.44% 41.44% -20.3 20
2022-01-30 Westerlo W 2-1 1544 1631 29.16% 23.22% 47.61% +13.0 30
2022-01-30 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-2 1631 1544 47.61% 23.22% 29.16% -13.0 37
2022-02-04 Deinze D 1-1 1428 1471 34.84% 23.44% 41.73% +0.4 23
2022-02-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1471 1428 41.73% 23.44% 34.84% -0.4 25
2022-02-05 Waasland-Beveren W 3-0 1466 1557 28.67% 23.19% 48.14% +38.0 23
2022-02-05 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-3 1557 1466 48.14% 23.19% 28.67% -38.0 30
2022-02-06 Lommel W 3-0 1618 1404 65.36% 20.78% 13.86% +13.0 40
2022-02-06 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1404 1618 13.86% 20.78% 65.36% -13.0 16
2022-02-06 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1352 1510 21.39% 22.47% 56.14% -7.1 14
2022-02-06 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1510 1352 56.14% 22.47% 21.39% +7.1 32
2022-02-09 Deinze L 0-3 1631 1471 60.39% 21.83% 17.78% -46.5 40
2022-02-09 @ Westerlo W 3-0 1471 1631 17.78% 21.83% 60.39% +46.5 28
2022-02-11 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1519 1428 52.85% 22.83% 24.32% -15.0 30
2022-02-11 @ Waasland-Beveren W 1-0 1428 1519 24.32% 22.83% 52.85% +15.1 26
2022-02-12 Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1585 1504 51.60% 22.94% 25.45% +8.3 43
2022-02-12 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1504 1585 25.45% 22.94% 51.60% -8.3 23
2022-02-13 Deinze W 1-0 1517 1517 40.98% 23.45% 35.58% +10.9 35
2022-02-13 @ RWDM 47 L 0-1 1517 1517 35.58% 23.45% 40.98% -10.9 28
2022-02-13 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1391 1345 47.20% 23.24% 29.56% +25.7 19
2022-02-13 @ Lommel L 0-3 1345 1391 29.56% 23.24% 47.20% -25.7 14
2022-02-19 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1504 1528 37.57% 23.47% 38.97% +11.7 33
2022-02-19 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-1 1528 1504 38.97% 23.47% 37.57% -11.7 35
2022-02-20 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1496 1319 61.94% 21.54% 16.52% +5.3 26
2022-02-20 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1319 1496 16.52% 21.54% 61.94% -5.3 14
2022-02-20 Lommel D 1-1 1506 1416 52.71% 22.85% 24.44% -1.8 29
2022-02-20 @ Deinze D 1-1 1416 1506 24.44% 22.85% 52.71% +1.8 20
2022-02-25 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1593 1516 51.18% 22.98% 25.84% +7.9 46
2022-02-25 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1516 1593 25.84% 22.98% 51.18% -7.9 33
2022-02-26 Deinze L 0-2 1314 1505 18.45% 21.96% 59.59% -11.8 14
2022-02-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1505 1314 59.59% 21.96% 18.45% +11.8 32
2022-02-27 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1516 1443 50.69% 23.02% 26.29% +13.9 38
2022-02-27 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1443 1516 26.29% 23.02% 50.69% -13.9 26
2022-02-27 Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-0 1418 1501 29.66% 23.25% 47.08% +1.2 21
2022-02-27 @ Lommel D 0-0 1501 1418 47.08% 23.25% 29.66% -1.2 27
2022-03-04 Westerlo L 1-2 1516 1601 29.45% 23.24% 47.32% -8.8 32
2022-03-04 @ Deinze W 2-1 1601 1516 47.32% 23.24% 29.45% +8.8 49
2022-03-05 Lommel L 0-2 1429 1419 42.36% 23.42% 34.22% -23.5 26
2022-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1419 1429 34.22% 23.42% 42.36% +23.5 24
2022-03-06 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1508 1302 64.60% 20.96% 14.43% +8.1 36
2022-03-06 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-3 1302 1508 14.43% 20.96% 64.60% -8.1 14
2022-03-06 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1500 1530 36.64% 23.46% 39.90% -11.1 27
2022-03-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1530 1500 39.90% 23.46% 36.64% +11.1 41
2022-03-11 Westerlo W 1-0 1294 1610 10.32% 19.33% 70.35% +19.5 17
2022-03-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-1 1610 1294 70.35% 19.33% 10.32% -19.5 49
2022-03-12 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1443 1541 27.77% 23.13% 49.10% +1.5 25
2022-03-12 @ Lommel D 0-0 1541 1443 49.10% 23.13% 27.77% -1.5 42
2022-03-13 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-1 1406 1489 29.65% 23.25% 47.10% -9.4 26
2022-03-13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1489 1406 47.10% 23.25% 29.65% +9.4 30
2022-03-13 Waasland-Beveren D 3-3 1507 1516 39.77% 23.46% 36.77% -0.1 33
2022-03-13 @ Deinze D 3-3 1516 1507 36.77% 23.46% 39.77% +0.1 37
2022-03-16 Westerlo W 1-0 1396 1590 18.17% 21.91% 59.93% +16.9 29
2022-03-16 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1590 1396 59.93% 21.91% 18.17% -16.9 49
2022-03-18 Deinze L 1-2 1498 1507 39.68% 23.46% 36.86% -11.2 30
2022-03-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-1 1507 1498 36.86% 23.46% 39.68% +11.2 36
2022-03-19 Lommel D 1-1 1516 1444 50.50% 23.03% 26.46% -1.5 38
2022-03-19 @ Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1444 1516 26.46% 23.03% 50.50% +1.5 26
2022-03-20 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1540 1314 66.36% 20.53% 13.11% +12.3 45
2022-03-20 @ RWDM 47 L 0-3 1314 1540 13.11% 20.53% 66.36% -12.3 17
2022-03-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1573 1413 60.36% 21.83% 17.81% +11.4 52
2022-03-20 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1413 1573 17.81% 21.83% 60.36% -11.4 29
2022-04-01 Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1402 1515 26.12% 23.00% 50.88% +27.4 32
2022-04-01 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1515 1402 50.88% 23.00% 26.12% -27.4 38
2022-04-02 Westerlo W 2-1 1446 1585 23.29% 22.72% 53.99% +14.4 29
2022-04-02 @ Lommel L 1-2 1585 1446 53.99% 22.72% 23.29% -14.5 52
2022-04-03 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1301 1487 18.85% 22.04% 59.10% +31.4 20
2022-04-03 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-2 1487 1301 59.10% 22.04% 18.85% -31.4 30
2022-04-03 RWDM 47 W 3-0 1519 1552 36.17% 23.46% 40.37% +32.9 39
2022-04-03 @ Deinze L 0-3 1552 1519 40.37% 23.46% 36.17% -32.9 45
2022-04-08 Lommel L 2-3 1333 1460 24.46% 22.85% 52.69% -7.2 20
2022-04-08 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-2 1460 1333 52.69% 22.85% 24.46% +7.2 32
2022-04-08 Westerlo L 2-6 1456 1570 25.90% 22.98% 51.12% -21.3 30
2022-04-08 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 6-2 1570 1456 51.12% 22.98% 25.90% +21.3 55
2022-04-09 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1551 1429 56.39% 22.44% 21.18% -15.0 39
2022-04-09 @ Deinze W 2-1 1429 1551 21.18% 22.44% 56.39% +15.0 35
2022-04-09 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1519 1487 45.42% 23.33% 31.26% +9.3 48
2022-04-09 @ RWDM 47 L 1-2 1487 1519 31.26% 23.33% 45.42% -9.3 38
2022-04-16 Deinze W 2-1 1468 1536 31.45% 23.34% 45.21% +12.4 35
2022-04-16 @ Lommel L 1-2 1536 1468 45.21% 23.34% 31.45% -12.4 39
2022-04-16 RWDM 47 D 2-2 1592 1529 49.41% 23.11% 27.47% -1.0 56
2022-04-16 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1529 1592 27.47% 23.11% 49.41% +1.0 49
2022-04-17 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1444 1325 56.02% 22.48% 21.49% -2.2 36
2022-04-17 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1325 1444 21.49% 22.48% 56.02% +2.2 21
2022-04-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1478 1434 46.91% 23.26% 29.83% +17.8 41
2022-04-17 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-2 1434 1478 29.83% 23.26% 46.91% -17.8 30

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2022-04-23 Seraing L 0-1 1530 1471 48.91% 23.15% 27.94% -14.1 0-1
2022-04-23 @ RWDM 47 W 1-0 1471 1530 27.94% 23.15% 48.91% +14.1 1-0
2022-04-30 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1485 1516 36.57% 23.46% 39.97% +0.2 1-0-1
2022-04-30 @ Seraing D 0-0 1516 1485 39.97% 23.46% 36.57% -0.2 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-03-11 10.32% @ Excelsior Virton 1294 1 Westerlo 1610 0
2 2022-02-09 17.78% Deinze 1471 3 @ Westerlo 1631 0
3 2022-03-16 18.17% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1396 1 Westerlo 1590 0
4 2022-04-03 18.85% @ Excelsior Virton 1301 2 Royal Excel Mouscron 1487 0
5 2022-04-09 21.18% Lierse Kempenzonen 1429 2 @ Deinze 1551 1
6 2022-04-02 23.29% @ Lommel 1446 2 Westerlo 1585 1
7 2022-02-11 24.32% Lierse Kempenzonen 1428 1 @ Waasland-Beveren 1519 0
8 2021-10-30 24.55% Lierse Kempenzonen 1433 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1522 1
9 2021-10-31 25.04% @ Deinze 1474 2 Westerlo 1597 1
10 2022-04-01 26.12% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1402 2 Waasland-Beveren 1515 0
11 2021-10-29 26.64% Royal Excel Mouscron 1399 2 @ Excelsior Virton 1469 0
12 2021-08-22 27.20% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1397 2 Excelsior Virton 1501 0
13 2021-10-03 27.45% RWDM 47 1425 2 @ Deinze 1488 1
14 2021-08-22 27.79% Deinze 1443 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1503 0
15 2021-08-21 27.93% Lommel 1449 1 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1508 0
16 2022-02-05 28.67% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1466 3 Waasland-Beveren 1557 0
17 2021-10-31 28.92% RWDM 47 1430 3 @ Lommel 1481 2
18 2021-09-24 29.12% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1430 2 Waasland-Beveren 1517 1
19 2021-11-19 29.14% Royal Excel Mouscron 1450 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1499 0
20 2022-01-30 29.16% @ Waasland-Beveren 1544 2 Westerlo 1631 1
21 2021-12-04 30.64% RWDM 47 1467 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1504 2
22 2021-08-14 31.42% @ RWDM 47 1460 3 Royal Excel Mouscron 1529 1
23 2022-04-16 31.45% @ Lommel 1468 2 Deinze 1536 1
24 2021-09-12 31.93% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1417 4 RWDM 47 1482 1
25 2021-11-05 31.93% Excelsior Virton 1442 3 @ Lommel 1469 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-02-09 46.52 Deinze 3 1471 17.78% @ Westerlo 0 1631 60.39% 21.83%
2 2021-08-29 45.42 Waasland-Beveren 4 1477 33.28% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1494 43.32% 23.40%
3 2022-02-05 37.97 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 3 1466 28.67% Waasland-Beveren 0 1557 48.14% 23.19%
4 2022-04-03 32.87 @ Deinze 3 1519 36.17% RWDM 47 0 1552 40.37% 23.46%
5 2022-04-03 31.40 @ Excelsior Virton 2 1301 18.85% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1487 59.10% 22.04%
6 2021-11-26 30.12 Waasland-Beveren 3 1474 40.49% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1439 36.06% 23.45%
7 2021-09-12 30.10 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 4 1417 31.93% RWDM 47 1 1482 44.72% 23.35%
8 2022-01-23 28.72 Waasland-Beveren 4 1516 52.66% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1388 24.49% 22.85%
9 2022-04-01 27.43 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1402 26.12% Waasland-Beveren 0 1515 50.88% 23.00%
10 2021-10-29 27.16 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1399 26.64% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1469 50.32% 23.05%
11 2021-08-22 26.88 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1397 27.20% Excelsior Virton 0 1501 49.71% 23.09%
12 2021-08-22 26.58 Deinze 2 1443 27.79% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1503 49.07% 23.13%
13 2021-10-17 26.24 @ Lommel 3 1465 46.42% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1425 30.30% 23.28%
14 2021-11-19 25.91 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1450 29.14% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1499 47.63% 23.22%
15 2022-02-13 25.72 @ Lommel 3 1391 47.20% Excelsior Virton 0 1345 29.56% 23.24%
16 2021-12-12 24.92 @ Waasland-Beveren 4 1492 41.39% Deinze 1 1489 35.17% 23.44%
17 2021-12-03 24.91 @ Deinze 3 1464 48.40% Excelsior Virton 0 1409 28.42% 23.18%
18 2021-10-30 24.46 Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1433 24.55% @ Waasland-Beveren 1 1522 52.60% 22.86%
19 2021-08-15 24.45 Westerlo 2 1500 32.19% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1525 44.44% 23.36%
20 2021-11-06 24.41 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1426 32.28% Deinze 0 1488 44.35% 23.37%
21 2021-11-20 24.30 Westerlo 5 1581 52.17% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1458 24.93% 22.89%
22 2021-11-21 24.17 RWDM 47 2 1443 32.80% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1463 43.81% 23.38%
23 2022-03-05 23.51 Lommel 2 1419 34.22% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1429 42.36% 23.42%
24 2021-09-12 22.40 Westerlo 2 1530 36.69% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1522 39.85% 23.46%
25 2021-08-14 21.49 @ RWDM 47 3 1460 31.42% Royal Excel Mouscron 1 1529 45.24% 23.33%