2021-22 First Division B Season

112 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

RWDM 47

10.80 points above expected

49 points · 38.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Excelsior Virton

11.41 points below expected

21 points · 32.41 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Westerlo 28 17 5 6 56 52 29 +23 48.5 +7.48
2 RWDM 47 28 14 7 7 49 41 33 +8 38.2 +10.80
3 Waasland-Beveren 28 12 5 11 41 47 40 +7 42.3 -1.34
4 Deinze 28 9 12 7 39 47 39 +8 37.5 +1.45
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 28 9 9 10 36 39 42 -3 32.5 +3.51
6 Lommel 28 9 8 11 35 39 40 -1 33.3 +1.67
7 Royal Excel Mouscron 28 8 6 14 30 31 45 -14 40.0 -10.03
8 Excelsior Virton 28 5 6 17 21 24 52 -28 32.4 -11.41

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Westerlo 1575 56 48.52 +7.48 84.0% 34 37 43 49 54 60 66
RWDM 47 1507 49 38.20 +10.80 95.0% 20 27 33 39 43 49 55
Deinze 1507 39 37.55 +1.45 65.0% 22 27 34 38 41 47 57
Waasland-Beveren 1504 41 42.34 -1.34 43.0% 24 29 39 42 46 52 57
Lommel 1471 35 33.33 +1.67 62.0% 19 21 29 34 38 43 51
Royal Excel Mouscron 1441 30 40.03 -10.03 9.0% 22 29 35 40 45 51 56
Lierse Kempenzonen 1435 36 32.49 +3.51 76.0% 16 22 28 33 36 44 54
Excelsior Virton 1357 21 32.41 -11.41 5.0% 18 21 28 33 35 43 55

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DEI EV LK LOM R4 REM WAA WES
Deinze
3-1-0
6.31
0-3-1
6.28
0-3-1
5.92
1-1-2
5.41
2-1-1
5.29
1-2-1
4.78
2-1-1
4.05
Excelsior Virton
0-1-3
4.59
1-2-1
5.63
2-0-2
4.95
0-1-3
4.54
1-1-2
4.65
0-0-4
4.25
1-1-2
3.89
Lierse Kempenzonen
1-3-0
4.60
1-2-1
5.26
1-1-2
5.21
1-1-2
4.71
0-2-2
4.50
4-0-0
3.97
1-0-3
3.60
Lommel
1-3-0
4.94
2-0-2
5.91
2-1-1
5.64
1-1-2
5.19
2-1-1
4.73
0-2-2
4.54
1-0-3
3.71
RWDM 47
2-1-1
5.44
3-1-0
6.40
2-1-1
6.15
2-1-1
5.67
3-1-0
5.14
2-0-2
5.10
0-2-2
4.30
Royal Excel Mouscron
1-1-2
5.56
2-1-1
6.29
2-2-0
6.38
1-1-2
6.14
0-1-3
5.71
2-0-2
4.94
0-0-4
4.24
Waasland-Beveren
1-2-1
6.08
4-0-0
6.68
0-0-4
6.96
2-2-0
6.34
2-0-2
5.76
2-0-2
5.92
1-1-2
4.80
Westerlo
1-1-2
6.88
2-1-1
7.14
3-0-1
7.39
3-0-1
7.26
2-2-0
6.59
4-0-0
6.66
2-1-1
6.07

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%5.80%8.48%4.02%0.89%24.55%
15.80%9.82%9.38%3.57%0.89%0.45%29.91%
28.48%9.38%8.04%2.23%0.45%28.57%
34.02%3.57%2.23%2.68%0.89%13.39%
40.89%0.89%0.89%2.68%
5+0.45%0.45%0.89%
Total24.55%29.91%28.57%13.39%2.68%0.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.43
Mean allowed1.43
StdDev scored1.15
StdDev allowed1.15
Mean total goals/game2.86
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.063
Sample size (games)112
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.57%10.71%
114.29%14.29%3.57%32.14%
27.14%10.71%17.86%35.71%
310.71%3.57%7.14%21.43%
4
5+
Total21.43%32.14%35.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Deinze — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.68
Mean allowed1.39
StdDev scored0.94
StdDev allowed1.03
Mean total goals/game3.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.094
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%21.43%14.29%3.57%46.43%
13.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%17.86%
33.57%3.57%7.14%
4
5+
Total10.71%28.57%32.14%21.43%7.14%100%

Excelsior Virton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.86
Mean allowed1.86
StdDev scored0.97
StdDev allowed1.11
Mean total goals/game2.71
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.157
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%17.86%
110.71%10.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%39.29%
27.14%7.14%14.29%3.57%32.14%
33.57%3.57%7.14%
43.57%3.57%
5+
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%14.29%3.57%100%

Lierse Kempenzonen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored0.99
StdDev allowed1.20
Mean total goals/game2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.047
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%28.57%
23.57%10.71%7.14%7.14%28.57%
37.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%17.86%
4
5+
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%100%

Lommel — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.39
Mean allowed1.43
StdDev scored1.07
StdDev allowed1.03
Mean total goals/game2.82
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.010
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%21.43%
114.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%32.14%
210.71%7.14%7.14%25.00%
33.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%21.43%
4
5+
Total39.29%21.43%25.00%10.71%3.57%100%

RWDM 47 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.46
Mean allowed1.18
StdDev scored1.07
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game2.64
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.078
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%3.57%35.71%
13.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%25.00%
210.71%10.71%7.14%3.57%32.14%
33.57%3.57%7.14%
4
5+
Total25.00%28.57%25.00%10.71%7.14%3.57%100%

Royal Excel Mouscron — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.11
Mean allowed1.61
StdDev scored0.99
StdDev allowed1.47
Mean total goals/game2.71
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.005
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%14.29%3.57%25.00%
13.57%10.71%10.71%3.57%28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%14.29%
33.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%17.86%
47.14%3.57%3.57%14.29%
5+
Total21.43%32.14%28.57%17.86%100%

Waasland-Beveren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.68
Mean allowed1.43
StdDev scored1.42
StdDev allowed1.03
Mean total goals/game3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.206
Games played28
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%3.57%14.29%
17.14%7.14%10.71%25.00%
221.43%14.29%7.14%42.86%
33.57%3.57%7.14%
43.57%3.57%
5+3.57%3.57%7.14%
Total35.71%32.14%25.00%7.14%100%

Westerlo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.86
Mean allowed1.04
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed0.96
Mean total goals/game2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.141
Games played28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 RWDM 47 49 38.2 +10.80
2 Westerlo 56 48.5 +7.48
3 Lierse Kempenzonen 36 32.5 +3.51
4 Lommel 35 33.3 +1.67
5 Deinze 39 37.5 +1.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Excelsior Virton 21 32.4 -11.41
2 Royal Excel Mouscron 30 40.0 -10.03
3 Waasland-Beveren 41 42.3 -1.34
4 Deinze 39 37.5 +1.45
5 Lommel 35 33.3 +1.67

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Oct 29 – Nov 28 1 in 76
2 Lommel 3 Apr 2 – Apr 16 1 in 29
3 Westerlo 4 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 22
4 RWDM 47 3 Dec 4 – Jan 21 1 in 21
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 2 Apr 1 – Apr 9 1 in 18

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 4 Aug 14 – Sep 10 1 in 129
2 Excelsior Virton 7 Jan 23 – Mar 6 1 in 121
3 Westerlo 2 Mar 11 – Mar 16 1 in 33
4 Lommel 3 Oct 24 – Nov 5 1 in 27
5 RWDM 47 3 Sep 12 – Sep 25 1 in 24

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lommel 9 Feb 13 – Apr 16 1 in 117
2 RWDM 47 8 Oct 22 – Jan 21 1 in 39
3 Westerlo 9 Aug 15 – Oct 24 1 in 23
4 Deinze 6 Aug 13 – Sep 26 1 in 21
5 Lierse Kempenzonen 4 Jan 23 – Feb 11 1 in 11

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Royal Excel Mouscron 9 Aug 14 – Oct 22 1 in 72
2 Lommel 11 Oct 24 – Feb 6 1 in 67
3 Excelsior Virton 12 Nov 21 – Mar 6 1 in 45
4 Lierse Kempenzonen 7 Nov 7 – Jan 23 1 in 12
5 RWDM 47 5 Aug 20 – Sep 25 1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Westerlo54.00%20.00%12.00%11.00%1.00%2.00%
RWDM 476.00%17.00%21.00%11.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%7.00%
Waasland-Beveren13.00%31.00%21.00%9.00%15.00%7.00%1.00%3.00%
Deinze6.00%9.00%19.00%17.00%12.00%20.00%9.00%8.00%
Lierse Kempenzonen1.00%4.00%3.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%21.00%29.00%
Lommel2.00%3.00%2.00%19.00%14.00%18.00%23.00%19.00%
Royal Excel Mouscron16.00%14.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%6.00%12.00%6.00%
Excelsior Virton2.00%2.00%7.00%6.00%11.00%19.00%25.00%28.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Won promotion playoff Lost promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Westerlo 54.0% 9.0% 11.0% 26.0%
Waasland-Beveren 13.0% 12.0% 19.0% 53.0% 3.0%
Royal Excel Mouscron 16.0% 6.0% 8.0% 64.0% 6.0%
RWDM 47 6.0% 9.0% 8.0% 70.0% 7.0%
Deinze 6.0% 3.0% 6.0% 77.0% 8.0%
Lommel 2.0% 3.0% 76.0% 19.0%
Lierse Kempenzonen 1.0% 4.0% 66.0% 29.0%
Excelsior Virton 2.0% 2.0% 68.0% 28.0%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2021-08-13 Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1442 1404 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% -0.7 1
2021-08-13 @ Deinze D 1-1 1404 1442 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% +0.7 1
2021-08-14 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1462 1534 28.9% 28.4% 42.7% +15.0 3
2021-08-14 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1534 1462 42.7% 28.4% 28.9% -15.0 0
2021-08-15 Westerlo L 0-2 1512 1494 41.3% 28.6% 30.1% -16.9 0
2021-08-15 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1494 1512 30.1% 28.6% 41.3% +16.9 3
2021-08-15 Waasland-Beveren L 2-3 1457 1501 32.4% 28.8% 38.8% -6.7 0
2021-08-15 @ Lommel W 3-2 1501 1457 38.8% 28.8% 32.4% +6.7 3
2021-08-20 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1510 1477 43.4% 28.3% 28.3% -0.7 4
2021-08-20 @ Westerlo D 0-0 1477 1510 28.3% 28.3% 43.4% +0.7 4
2021-08-21 Lommel L 0-1 1519 1450 48.2% 27.1% 24.6% -10.1 0
2021-08-21 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1450 1519 24.6% 27.1% 48.2% +10.1 3
2021-08-22 Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1405 1495 26.8% 27.9% 45.3% +18.1 4
2021-08-22 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1495 1405 45.3% 27.9% 26.8% -18.1 0
2021-08-22 Deinze L 0-2 1508 1441 48.1% 27.2% 24.7% -19.0 3
2021-08-22 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1441 1508 24.7% 27.2% 48.1% +19.0 4
2021-08-27 Excelsior Virton D 0-0 1478 1477 38.7% 28.9% 32.4% -0.3 5
2021-08-27 @ RWDM 47 D 0-0 1477 1478 32.4% 28.9% 38.7% +0.3 1
2021-08-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-2 1510 1423 50.7% 26.4% 22.9% +5.0 7
2021-08-28 @ Westerlo L 2-3 1423 1510 22.9% 26.4% 50.7% -5.0 4
2021-08-29 Deinze D 2-2 1460 1460 38.7% 28.9% 32.4% -0.2 4
2021-08-29 @ Lommel D 2-2 1460 1460 32.4% 28.9% 38.7% +0.2 5
2021-08-29 Waasland-Beveren L 0-4 1509 1489 41.4% 28.6% 30.0% -32.2 0
2021-08-29 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-0 1489 1509 30.0% 28.6% 41.4% +32.2 6
2021-09-10 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-1 1460 1477 36.3% 29.0% 34.8% +13.0 8
2021-09-10 @ Deinze L 1-3 1477 1460 34.8% 29.0% 36.3% -12.9 0
2021-09-11 Lommel W 2-1 1478 1460 41.1% 28.6% 30.3% +6.7 4
2021-09-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-2 1460 1478 30.3% 28.6% 41.1% -6.7 4
2021-09-12 RWDM 47 W 4-1 1418 1477 30.4% 28.6% 40.9% +20.6 7
2021-09-12 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-4 1477 1418 40.9% 28.6% 30.4% -20.6 5
2021-09-12 Westerlo L 0-2 1521 1515 39.6% 28.8% 31.6% -16.4 6
2021-09-12 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1515 1521 31.6% 28.8% 39.6% +16.4 10
2021-09-17 Waasland-Beveren L 1-3 1457 1505 31.9% 28.8% 39.3% -12.1 5
2021-09-17 @ RWDM 47 W 3-1 1505 1457 39.3% 28.8% 31.9% +12.1 9
2021-09-18 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1464 1484 35.7% 29.0% 35.4% -0.0 1
2021-09-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-1 1484 1464 35.4% 29.0% 35.7% +0.0 5
2021-09-19 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1454 1439 40.7% 28.7% 30.6% +11.8 7
2021-09-19 @ Lommel L 1-3 1439 1454 30.6% 28.7% 40.7% -11.8 7
2021-09-19 Deinze D 2-2 1531 1473 46.8% 27.5% 25.7% -0.7 11
2021-09-19 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1473 1531 25.7% 27.5% 46.8% +0.7 9
2021-09-24 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1427 1517 26.9% 27.9% 45.2% +9.1 10
2021-09-24 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1517 1427 45.2% 27.9% 26.9% -9.1 9
2021-09-25 Lommel L 1-2 1445 1465 35.7% 29.0% 35.4% -7.6 5
2021-09-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-1 1465 1445 35.4% 29.0% 35.7% +7.6 10
2021-09-26 Deinze D 1-1 1484 1474 40.1% 28.7% 31.1% -0.4 6
2021-09-26 @ Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1474 1484 31.1% 28.7% 40.1% +0.4 10
2021-09-26 Westerlo L 1-2 1464 1530 29.5% 28.5% 42.0% -6.6 1
2021-09-26 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-1 1530 1464 42.0% 28.5% 29.5% +6.6 14
2021-10-01 Lommel W 2-0 1537 1473 47.7% 27.3% 25.0% +11.5 17
2021-10-01 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1473 1537 25.0% 27.3% 47.7% -11.5 10
2021-10-02 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-2 1436 1457 35.6% 29.0% 35.4% -0.0 11
2021-10-02 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1457 1436 35.4% 29.0% 35.6% +0.0 2
2021-10-03 RWDM 47 L 1-2 1474 1437 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% -8.8 10
2021-10-03 @ Deinze W 2-1 1437 1474 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% +8.8 8
2021-10-03 Excelsior Virton W 4-3 1508 1484 42.1% 28.5% 29.4% +6.1 12
2021-10-03 @ Waasland-Beveren L 3-4 1484 1508 29.4% 28.5% 42.1% -6.1 6
2021-10-15 Waasland-Beveren D 0-0 1465 1514 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% +0.4 11
2021-10-15 @ Deinze D 0-0 1514 1465 39.4% 28.8% 31.8% -0.4 13
2021-10-16 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1478 1436 44.5% 28.1% 27.4% +6.2 9
2021-10-16 @ Excelsior Virton L 1-2 1436 1478 27.4% 28.1% 44.5% -6.2 11
2021-10-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 3-0 1461 1457 39.2% 28.8% 31.9% +20.4 13
2021-10-17 @ Lommel L 0-3 1457 1461 31.9% 28.8% 39.2% -20.4 2
2021-10-17 Westerlo L 1-2 1446 1549 25.5% 27.5% 47.0% -5.8 8
2021-10-17 @ RWDM 47 W 2-1 1549 1446 47.0% 27.5% 25.5% +5.9 20
2021-10-22 RWDM 47 D 1-1 1437 1440 38.1% 28.9% 33.0% -0.2 3
2021-10-22 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 1-1 1440 1437 33.0% 28.9% 38.1% +0.2 9
2021-10-23 Deinze D 2-2 1430 1466 33.5% 28.9% 37.5% +0.1 12
2021-10-23 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1466 1430 37.5% 28.9% 33.5% -0.1 12
2021-10-24 Lommel W 2-1 1514 1482 43.2% 28.3% 28.5% +6.4 16
2021-10-24 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-2 1482 1514 28.5% 28.3% 43.2% -6.4 13
2021-10-24 Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1554 1484 48.5% 27.1% 24.4% +11.2 23
2021-10-24 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1484 1554 24.4% 27.1% 48.5% -11.2 9
2021-10-29 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1473 1436 43.8% 28.2% 28.0% -17.7 9
2021-10-29 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1436 1473 28.0% 28.2% 43.8% +17.7 6
2021-10-30 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-3 1520 1430 51.2% 26.2% 22.6% -17.2 16
2021-10-30 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-1 1430 1520 22.6% 26.2% 51.2% +17.2 15
2021-10-31 Westerlo W 2-1 1465 1566 25.8% 27.6% 46.6% +9.3 15
2021-10-31 @ Deinze L 1-2 1566 1465 46.6% 27.6% 25.8% -9.3 23
2021-10-31 RWDM 47 L 2-3 1475 1440 43.6% 28.2% 28.2% -8.4 13
2021-10-31 @ Lommel W 3-2 1440 1475 28.2% 28.2% 43.6% +8.4 12
2021-11-05 Excelsior Virton L 1-3 1467 1455 40.3% 28.7% 31.0% -14.4 13
2021-11-05 @ Lommel W 3-1 1455 1467 31.0% 28.7% 40.3% +14.4 12
2021-11-06 Deinze W 2-0 1454 1475 35.7% 29.0% 35.4% +15.1 9
2021-11-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1475 1454 35.4% 29.0% 35.7% -15.1 15
2021-11-07 Lierse Kempenzonen D 3-3 1449 1447 38.9% 28.8% 32.3% -0.2 13
2021-11-07 @ RWDM 47 D 3-3 1447 1449 32.3% 28.8% 38.9% +0.2 16
2021-11-07 Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1556 1503 46.2% 27.7% 26.1% -0.9 24
2021-11-07 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1503 1556 26.1% 27.7% 46.2% +0.9 17
2021-11-19 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-2 1504 1469 43.5% 28.2% 28.2% -17.6 17
2021-11-19 @ Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1469 1504 28.2% 28.2% 43.5% +17.6 12
2021-11-20 Westerlo L 1-5 1447 1556 25.0% 27.3% 47.7% -18.1 16
2021-11-20 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 5-1 1556 1447 47.7% 27.3% 25.0% +18.1 27
2021-11-21 Lommel D 3-3 1460 1453 39.6% 28.8% 31.6% -0.2 16
2021-11-21 @ Deinze D 3-3 1453 1460 31.6% 28.8% 39.6% +0.2 14
2021-11-21 RWDM 47 L 0-2 1469 1449 41.6% 28.5% 29.8% -17.0 12
2021-11-21 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1449 1469 29.8% 28.5% 41.6% +17.0 16
2021-11-26 Waasland-Beveren L 0-3 1452 1486 33.8% 28.9% 37.3% -21.3 12
2021-11-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1486 1452 37.3% 28.9% 33.8% +21.3 20
2021-11-27 Westerlo L 0-1 1453 1574 23.8% 26.8% 49.5% -5.8 14
2021-11-27 @ Lommel W 1-0 1574 1453 49.5% 26.8% 23.8% +5.8 30
2021-11-28 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-1 1487 1429 46.8% 27.6% 25.7% +5.9 15
2021-11-28 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1429 1487 25.7% 27.6% 46.8% -5.9 16
2021-11-28 Deinze D 2-2 1466 1459 39.5% 28.8% 31.7% -0.2 17
2021-11-28 @ RWDM 47 D 2-2 1459 1466 31.7% 28.8% 39.5% +0.2 17
2021-12-03 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1460 1431 42.7% 28.4% 28.9% +18.9 20
2021-12-03 @ Deinze L 0-3 1431 1460 28.9% 28.4% 42.7% -18.9 12
2021-12-04 RWDM 47 L 2-3 1507 1465 44.6% 28.0% 27.4% -8.5 20
2021-12-04 @ Waasland-Beveren W 3-2 1465 1507 27.4% 28.0% 44.6% +8.5 20
2021-12-05 Lommel D 2-2 1423 1447 35.2% 29.0% 35.8% +0.0 17
2021-12-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1447 1423 35.8% 29.0% 35.2% -0.0 15
2021-12-05 Royal Excel Mouscron W 4-3 1579 1493 50.7% 26.4% 22.9% +4.9 33
2021-12-05 @ Westerlo L 3-4 1493 1579 22.9% 26.4% 50.7% -4.9 15
2021-12-11 Lommel W 2-1 1488 1447 44.4% 28.1% 27.5% +6.2 18
2021-12-11 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1447 1488 27.5% 28.1% 44.4% -6.2 15
2021-12-12 Lierse Kempenzonen D 2-2 1412 1423 37.0% 28.9% 34.0% -0.1 13
2021-12-12 @ Excelsior Virton D 2-2 1423 1412 34.0% 28.9% 37.0% +0.1 18
2021-12-12 Deinze W 4-1 1499 1479 41.5% 28.6% 29.9% +16.3 23
2021-12-12 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-4 1479 1499 29.9% 28.6% 41.5% -16.3 20
2021-12-17 Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1441 1515 28.6% 28.3% 43.1% +0.6 16
2021-12-17 @ Lommel D 1-1 1515 1441 43.1% 28.3% 28.6% -0.6 24
2021-12-18 Royal Excel Mouscron D 2-2 1462 1494 34.1% 28.9% 37.0% +0.1 21
2021-12-18 @ Deinze D 2-2 1494 1462 37.0% 28.9% 34.1% -0.1 19
2021-12-19 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1423 1474 31.6% 28.8% 39.6% -7.4 18
2021-12-19 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1474 1423 39.6% 28.8% 31.6% +7.4 23
2021-12-19 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1584 1412 61.9% 21.4% 16.7% -2.1 34
2021-12-19 @ Westerlo D 1-1 1412 1584 16.7% 21.4% 61.9% +2.1 14
2022-01-21 Lommel W 2-0 1481 1441 44.3% 28.1% 27.6% +12.5 26
2022-01-21 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1441 1481 27.6% 28.1% 44.3% -12.5 16
2022-01-23 Waasland-Beveren L 0-4 1414 1515 25.8% 27.6% 46.7% -22.4 14
2022-01-23 @ Excelsior Virton W 4-0 1515 1414 46.7% 27.6% 25.8% +22.4 27
2022-01-23 Lierse Kempenzonen D 0-0 1494 1416 49.5% 26.8% 23.7% -1.3 20
2022-01-23 @ Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-0 1416 1494 23.7% 26.8% 49.5% +1.3 19
2022-01-25 Westerlo L 0-2 1494 1582 27.0% 28.0% 45.0% -12.3 26
2022-01-25 @ RWDM 47 W 2-0 1582 1494 45.0% 28.0% 27.0% +12.3 37
2022-01-28 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1429 1417 40.3% 28.7% 31.0% -8.8 16
2022-01-28 @ Lommel W 1-0 1417 1429 31.0% 28.7% 40.3% +8.8 22
2022-01-29 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1462 1392 48.5% 27.1% 24.4% +5.6 24
2022-01-29 @ Deinze L 1-2 1392 1462 24.4% 27.1% 48.5% -5.6 14
2022-01-30 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1481 1493 37.0% 28.9% 34.0% +14.7 29
2022-01-30 @ RWDM 47 L 0-2 1493 1481 34.0% 28.9% 37.0% -14.7 20
2022-01-30 Westerlo W 2-1 1537 1595 30.7% 28.7% 40.6% +8.4 30
2022-01-30 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-2 1595 1537 40.6% 28.7% 30.7% -8.4 37
2022-02-04 Deinze D 1-1 1426 1468 32.7% 28.9% 38.4% +0.2 23
2022-02-04 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1468 1426 38.4% 28.9% 32.7% -0.2 25
2022-02-05 Waasland-Beveren W 3-0 1478 1545 29.4% 28.5% 42.1% +24.9 23
2022-02-05 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-3 1545 1478 42.1% 28.5% 29.4% -24.9 30
2022-02-06 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1386 1496 24.8% 27.2% 48.0% -6.0 14
2022-02-06 @ Excelsior Virton W 1-0 1496 1386 48.0% 27.2% 24.8% +6.0 32
2022-02-06 Lommel W 3-0 1586 1420 61.1% 21.8% 17.1% +11.2 40
2022-02-06 @ Westerlo L 0-3 1420 1586 17.1% 21.8% 61.1% -11.2 16
2022-02-09 Deinze L 0-3 1597 1468 56.4% 24.1% 19.5% -31.1 40
2022-02-09 @ Westerlo W 3-0 1468 1597 19.5% 24.1% 56.4% +31.1 28
2022-02-11 Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1521 1426 51.7% 26.0% 22.3% -10.6 30
2022-02-11 @ Waasland-Beveren W 1-0 1426 1521 22.3% 26.0% 51.7% +10.6 26
2022-02-12 Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1566 1503 47.5% 27.3% 25.1% +6.1 43
2022-02-12 @ Westerlo L 0-1 1503 1566 25.1% 27.3% 47.5% -6.1 23
2022-02-13 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1409 1380 42.7% 28.4% 28.9% +18.9 19
2022-02-13 @ Lommel L 0-3 1380 1409 28.9% 28.4% 42.7% -18.9 14
2022-02-13 Deinze W 1-0 1502 1499 39.1% 28.8% 32.0% +7.5 35
2022-02-13 @ RWDM 47 L 0-1 1499 1502 32.0% 28.8% 39.1% -7.5 28
2022-02-19 RWDM 47 W 1-0 1510 1510 38.7% 28.9% 32.5% +7.5 33
2022-02-19 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-1 1510 1510 32.5% 28.9% 38.7% -7.5 35
2022-02-20 Lommel D 1-1 1491 1428 47.6% 27.3% 25.1% -1.0 29
2022-02-20 @ Deinze D 1-1 1428 1491 25.1% 27.3% 47.6% +1.0 20
2022-02-20 Excelsior Virton W 2-1 1497 1361 57.2% 23.8% 19.1% +4.4 26
2022-02-20 @ Royal Excel Mouscron L 1-2 1361 1497 19.1% 23.8% 57.2% -4.4 14
2022-02-25 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1572 1517 46.4% 27.6% 26.0% +5.9 46
2022-02-25 @ Westerlo L 1-2 1517 1572 26.0% 27.6% 46.4% -5.9 33
2022-02-26 Deinze L 0-2 1357 1490 22.6% 26.2% 51.2% -10.5 14
2022-02-26 @ Excelsior Virton W 2-0 1490 1357 51.2% 26.2% 22.6% +10.5 32
2022-02-27 Royal Excel Mouscron D 0-0 1429 1501 28.9% 28.4% 42.8% +0.7 21
2022-02-27 @ Lommel D 0-0 1501 1429 42.8% 28.4% 28.9% -0.7 27
2022-02-27 Lierse Kempenzonen W 3-1 1502 1437 47.8% 27.3% 24.9% +9.9 38
2022-02-27 @ RWDM 47 L 1-3 1437 1502 24.9% 27.3% 47.8% -9.9 26
2022-03-04 Westerlo L 1-2 1501 1578 28.2% 28.2% 43.5% -6.4 32
2022-03-04 @ Deinze W 2-1 1578 1501 43.5% 28.2% 28.2% +6.4 49
2022-03-05 Lommel L 0-2 1427 1429 38.3% 28.9% 32.8% -16.0 26
2022-03-05 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1429 1427 32.8% 28.9% 38.3% +16.0 24
2022-03-06 RWDM 47 L 0-1 1500 1512 37.0% 28.9% 34.1% -8.3 27
2022-03-06 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 1-0 1512 1500 34.1% 28.9% 37.0% +8.3 41
2022-03-06 Excelsior Virton W 3-1 1511 1347 61.0% 21.9% 17.2% +6.7 36
2022-03-06 @ Waasland-Beveren L 1-3 1347 1511 17.2% 21.9% 61.0% -6.7 14
2022-03-11 Westerlo W 1-0 1340 1585 15.1% 19.4% 65.5% +12.6 17
2022-03-11 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-1 1585 1340 65.5% 19.4% 15.1% -12.6 49
2022-03-12 RWDM 47 D 0-0 1445 1520 28.6% 28.3% 43.1% +0.7 25
2022-03-12 @ Lommel D 0-0 1520 1445 43.1% 28.3% 28.6% -0.7 42
2022-03-13 Waasland-Beveren D 3-3 1494 1518 35.2% 29.0% 35.8% +0.0 33
2022-03-13 @ Deinze D 3-3 1518 1494 35.8% 29.0% 35.2% -0.0 37
2022-03-13 Royal Excel Mouscron L 0-1 1411 1492 27.9% 28.2% 44.0% -6.7 26
2022-03-13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen W 1-0 1492 1411 44.0% 28.2% 27.9% +6.7 30
2022-03-16 Westerlo W 1-0 1404 1572 19.9% 24.4% 55.7% +11.2 29
2022-03-16 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-1 1572 1404 55.7% 24.4% 19.9% -11.2 49
2022-03-18 Deinze L 1-2 1499 1494 39.3% 28.8% 31.9% -8.2 30
2022-03-18 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-1 1494 1499 31.9% 28.8% 39.3% +8.2 36
2022-03-19 Lommel D 1-1 1518 1446 48.7% 27.0% 24.3% -1.1 38
2022-03-19 @ Waasland-Beveren D 1-1 1446 1518 24.3% 27.0% 48.7% +1.1 26
2022-03-20 Excelsior Virton W 3-0 1520 1352 61.2% 21.8% 17.0% +11.1 45
2022-03-20 @ RWDM 47 L 0-3 1352 1520 17.0% 21.8% 61.2% -11.1 17
2022-03-20 Lierse Kempenzonen W 2-0 1561 1416 58.4% 23.2% 18.4% +8.4 52
2022-03-20 @ Westerlo L 0-2 1416 1561 18.4% 23.2% 58.4% -8.4 29
2022-04-01 Waasland-Beveren W 2-0 1407 1517 24.8% 27.2% 48.0% +18.9 32
2022-04-01 @ Lierse Kempenzonen L 0-2 1517 1407 48.0% 27.2% 24.8% -18.9 38
2022-04-02 Westerlo W 2-1 1447 1569 23.6% 26.7% 49.6% +9.7 29
2022-04-02 @ Lommel L 1-2 1569 1447 49.6% 26.7% 23.6% -9.7 52
2022-04-03 RWDM 47 W 3-0 1503 1531 34.6% 29.0% 36.4% +22.5 39
2022-04-03 @ Deinze L 0-3 1531 1503 36.4% 29.0% 34.6% -22.5 45
2022-04-03 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1341 1491 21.3% 25.4% 53.3% +20.5 20
2022-04-03 @ Excelsior Virton L 0-2 1491 1341 53.3% 25.4% 21.3% -20.5 30
2022-04-08 Lommel L 2-3 1362 1457 26.3% 27.8% 45.9% -5.7 20
2022-04-08 @ Excelsior Virton W 3-2 1457 1362 45.9% 27.8% 26.3% +5.7 32
2022-04-08 Westerlo L 2-6 1470 1560 26.9% 27.9% 45.1% -16.4 30
2022-04-08 @ Royal Excel Mouscron W 6-2 1560 1470 45.1% 27.9% 26.9% +16.4 55
2022-04-09 Lierse Kempenzonen L 1-2 1525 1426 52.3% 25.8% 21.9% -10.1 39
2022-04-09 @ Deinze W 2-1 1426 1525 21.9% 25.8% 52.3% +10.1 35
2022-04-09 Waasland-Beveren W 2-1 1508 1498 40.1% 28.7% 31.2% +6.9 48
2022-04-09 @ RWDM 47 L 1-2 1498 1508 31.2% 28.7% 40.1% -6.9 38
2022-04-16 Deinze W 2-1 1463 1515 31.4% 28.8% 39.9% +8.2 35
2022-04-16 @ Lommel L 1-2 1515 1463 39.9% 28.8% 31.4% -8.2 39
2022-04-16 RWDM 47 D 2-2 1576 1515 47.2% 27.4% 25.4% -0.7 56
2022-04-16 @ Westerlo D 2-2 1515 1576 25.4% 27.4% 47.2% +0.7 49
2022-04-17 Excelsior Virton D 1-1 1436 1356 49.8% 26.7% 23.5% -1.2 36
2022-04-17 @ Lierse Kempenzonen D 1-1 1356 1436 23.5% 26.7% 49.8% +1.2 21
2022-04-17 Royal Excel Mouscron W 2-0 1491 1454 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% +12.6 41
2022-04-17 @ Waasland-Beveren L 0-2 1454 1491 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% -12.6 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-03-11 15.08% @ Excelsior Virton 1340 1 Westerlo 1585 0
2 2022-02-09 19.47% Deinze 1468 3 @ Westerlo 1597 0
3 2022-03-16 19.86% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1404 1 Westerlo 1572 0
4 2022-04-03 21.27% @ Excelsior Virton 1341 2 Royal Excel Mouscron 1491 0
5 2022-04-09 21.87% Lierse Kempenzonen 1426 2 @ Deinze 1525 1
6 2022-02-11 22.26% Lierse Kempenzonen 1426 1 @ Waasland-Beveren 1521 0
7 2021-10-30 22.60% Lierse Kempenzonen 1430 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1520 1
8 2022-04-02 23.64% @ Lommel 1447 2 Westerlo 1569 1
9 2021-08-21 24.61% Lommel 1450 1 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1519 0
10 2021-08-22 24.74% Deinze 1441 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1508 0
11 2022-04-01 24.81% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1407 2 Waasland-Beveren 1517 0
12 2021-10-31 25.78% @ Deinze 1465 2 Westerlo 1566 1
13 2021-08-22 26.84% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1405 2 Excelsior Virton 1495 0
14 2021-09-24 26.85% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1427 2 Waasland-Beveren 1517 1
15 2021-12-04 27.36% RWDM 47 1465 3 @ Waasland-Beveren 1507 2
16 2021-10-03 27.94% RWDM 47 1437 2 @ Deinze 1474 1
17 2021-10-29 28.02% Royal Excel Mouscron 1436 2 @ Excelsior Virton 1473 0
18 2021-10-31 28.17% RWDM 47 1440 3 @ Lommel 1475 2
19 2021-11-19 28.21% Royal Excel Mouscron 1469 2 @ Waasland-Beveren 1504 0
20 2021-08-14 28.92% @ RWDM 47 1462 3 Royal Excel Mouscron 1534 1
21 2022-02-05 29.45% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1478 3 Waasland-Beveren 1545 0
22 2021-11-21 29.84% RWDM 47 1449 2 @ Excelsior Virton 1469 0
23 2021-08-29 29.99% Waasland-Beveren 1489 4 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 1509 0
24 2021-08-15 30.11% Westerlo 1494 2 @ Excelsior Virton 1512 0
25 2021-09-12 30.45% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1418 4 RWDM 47 1477 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-08-29 32.19 Waasland-Beveren 4 1489 29.99% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1509 41.43%
2 2022-02-09 31.07 Deinze 3 1468 19.47% @ Westerlo 0 1597 56.42%
3 2022-02-05 24.93 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 3 1478 29.45% Waasland-Beveren 0 1545 42.07%
4 2022-04-03 22.45 @ Deinze 3 1503 34.58% RWDM 47 0 1531 36.45%
5 2022-01-23 22.37 Waasland-Beveren 4 1515 46.67% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1414 25.76%
6 2021-11-26 21.27 Waasland-Beveren 3 1486 37.26% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1452 33.81%
7 2021-09-12 20.59 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 4 1418 30.45% RWDM 47 1 1477 40.91%
8 2022-04-03 20.51 @ Excelsior Virton 2 1341 21.27% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1491 53.31%
9 2021-10-17 20.39 @ Lommel 3 1461 39.25% Royal Excel Mouscron 0 1457 31.93%
10 2021-08-22 18.98 Deinze 2 1441 24.74% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1508 48.07%
11 2022-04-01 18.94 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1407 24.81% Waasland-Beveren 0 1517 47.97%
12 2021-12-03 18.88 @ Deinze 3 1460 42.68% Excelsior Virton 0 1431 28.93%
13 2022-02-13 18.87 @ Lommel 3 1409 42.70% Excelsior Virton 0 1380 28.91%
14 2021-11-20 18.14 Westerlo 5 1556 47.74% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 1 1447 24.97%
15 2021-08-22 18.13 @ Lierse Kempenzonen 2 1405 26.84% Excelsior Virton 0 1495 45.27%
16 2021-10-29 17.68 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1436 28.02% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1473 43.78%
17 2021-11-19 17.61 Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1469 28.21% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1504 43.54%
18 2021-10-30 17.23 Lierse Kempenzonen 3 1430 22.60% @ Waasland-Beveren 1 1520 51.20%
19 2021-11-21 17.02 RWDM 47 2 1449 29.84% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1469 41.61%
20 2021-08-15 16.93 Westerlo 2 1494 30.11% @ Excelsior Virton 0 1512 41.29%
21 2022-04-08 16.44 Westerlo 6 1560 45.14% @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1470 26.94%
22 2021-09-12 16.40 Westerlo 2 1515 31.65% @ Waasland-Beveren 0 1521 39.56%
23 2021-12-12 16.34 @ Waasland-Beveren 4 1499 41.54% Deinze 1 1479 29.90%
24 2022-03-05 16.02 Lommel 2 1429 32.82% @ Lierse Kempenzonen 0 1427 38.30%
25 2021-11-06 15.13 @ Royal Excel Mouscron 2 1454 35.66% Deinze 0 1475 35.37%